Wuhan coronavirus outbreak

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The West failed in containing the pandemic

Genome

Spike glycoprotein of the 2019-nCoV coronavirus
The SARS-CoV-2 genome does not contain HIV sequences, despite what the Indian paper suggested. See more on Talk

-leak.html archive])

ACE2 receptor recognition

Furin cleavage site

Natural origin?

How the "Proximal Origin" hoax was created
Did Dr. Fauci pressure Kristian Andersen to change his views?
Origin of SARS-CoV-2 explained by 'CAGAC' sequence induced copy-choice recombinations

Signs of artificial creation

See also /Lab-leak theory and US bioweapons programme#Gain of function research
The PRRA polybasic furin cleavage site is not found in closest relatives of Sars Cov 2
Note: Some of the early material here has been debunked.

Phylogenetic tree

See talk for discussion.

Variants

B.1.1.7 (spike H69/V70 deletion)

This new UK data shows attack rates (% exposed who get infected) of B117 vs common variants: B117 has 33-36% higher attack rate overall. It’s also maybe worse in kids @Eric Feigl Ding

Database listing

Random questions

Transmission

COVID-19 cases in Italy
On March 21, 2020 the United States is about to become the world leader in new COVID-19 cases.

Asymptomatic transmission

Schools

Superspreading events

Quarantine

Villages are building brick walls to keep outsiders from spreading the virus.
See also Coronavirus lockdown

USA

Trump says risk of COVID-19 in US is very low

Singapore

Second wave

Source

Protection

Immunity

Coronavirus antibodies

Is Coronavirus really more widespread and less deadly than thought?
Antibodies or antibody tests are not specific to COVID-19. It is possible that people who test positive were immunized by a common cold coronavirus like NCoV-OC43. Which would be good, as then the common cold would give immunity against COVID-19.

Cross immunity

T cells

Herd immunity

See also Talk:Wuhan coronavirus outbreak#Hypothesis: Herd Immunity threshold at 10%-20% seroprevalence?
The extremely long incubation time of two to 14 days — and reports of 22 to 27 days — should wake up any immunologist. As well as the claim that most patients would no longer secrete the virus after five days. Both [claims] in turn actually lead to the conclusion that there is — sort of in the background — a base immunity that contorts the events, compared to an expected cycle [of a viral infection] — i.e. leads to a long incubation period and quick immunity.

Vaccination

An example of US infowar on Russia's Sputnik V vaccine

...difficulty with

  • No vaccine for coronavirus a possibility, interview with immun. prof. Ian Frazer, news.com.au, April 19, 2020
  • What happens if a coronavirus vaccine is never developed? It has happened before - CNN May 4, 2020
  • Sugary Camouflage on Coronavirus Offers Vaccine Clues - Quanta Magazine, May 5, 2020
  • Four Ukrainian army servicemen die in COVID-19 vaccine trial - Lugansk Media Centre, July 17, 2020
    Alexander Mazeikin said (video) “The military-political leadership of Ukraine continues to risk the lives of its citizens to please the overseas partners. So, on June 23, six American virologists arrived at the Central Referatative Laboratory (Центральную реферативную лабораторию; mentioned in 2019 here) of Merefa settlement in the Kharkov region to test an innovative drug and vaccine against coronavirus infection. From the report of the chief surgeon of the Kharkov Military Hospital, Lieutenant Colonel of the Medical Service Sergei Shipilov (probably this man 1, 2), who participates in the program as an observer, we learned that 15 candidates were approved for practical tests on June 29, including 10 servicemen from among those infected with coronavirus infection with moderate and severe illnesses.... (etc) 22 medics had to sign nondisclosure agreement with SBU...anesthesiologist Oleg Oleynik (or Aleynik) and head of diagnostic lab Artem Ponomarev refused to talk to investigators and were detained; under a threat of criminal prosecution they agreed to cooperate with SBU ...
    Ukraine denied the report
    It may be "normal" that giving vaccine to somebody seriously ill already and going on ventilator will not necessarily save him...

Sputnik V

Price of different vaccines in Europe
See also Wikipedia Gam-COVID-Vac

mRNA Vaccines

By late January, scientists in China had sequenced the SARS-CoV-2 genome. Soon after that, Moderna scientists in Cambridge fed that code into mRNA which was shuttled to cells via the LNP and, sure enough, the cells began to produce the protein necessary to trigger the body’s immune response... It took only 42 days to develop the vaccine.

Whole-virion vaccines

Non-COVID vaccines

Vaccination costs, licensing

Side effects

Universal vaccination

Infection

Cytokine storm

T cells?

Hemoglobin?

See also section Silent hypoxia below.

Silent hypoxia

Coagulation/Thrombosis

Kawasaki disease

Strokes

Lipid metabolism

Nervous system

Permanent damage?

Asymptomatic harm

Chest CT scans of two asymptomatic patients

Mortality

Chance of surviving COVID-19 by age and sex in high-income countries
The New York Times publishes 1000 names of Coronavirus victims
3,124 COVID deaths were reported in the USA on December 9, 2020. The weekly reporting cycle means that Wednesdays see the highest number of reports. The 7-day moving average reached 2527 on December 14.

Fake news

Testing

Methods

CDC’s laboratory test kit for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Each tube has enough DNA primers and probes to perform 1000 tests.

RT-PCR

See also Wikipedia for Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)

Antibody tests

Treatment

1918 influenza pandemic

Intensive care

Procedures

Oxygen -> ventilator -> turning patient to lie on stomach so that there is less water in upper parts of lungs ->ECMO

In Moscow: Oxygen -> turning (see above) -> ventilator -> ECMO; trying to avoid ventilator, ECMO as long as it's possible

Chloroquine

Ivermectin

So the question is: is the Dominican Republican the first country where the prevalence of ivermectin treatment is such as to eradicate Covid fatalities? @Covid19Crusher
Mexico City: Using Ivermectin since December 29, deaths have fallen by 82% Source
The Times reports that some experts such as Penny Ward, visiting professor in pharmaceutical medicine at Kings’ College London critiques the study, sharing with The Times’ Rhys Blakely that, “They’re allowing a recruitment window 14 days from the onset of symptoms, but the virus peaks on day three—and it’s too late to use an antiviral after the peak of virus replication.”
The trial platform subsequently passed over Ivermectin.

Mechanisms of action

...it appears that the increasingly well described in vitro properties of ivermectin as an inhibitor of inflammation are far more clinically potent than previously recognized. The growing list of studies demonstrating the anti-inflammatory properties of ivermectin include its ability to; inhibit cytokine production after lipopolysaccharide exposure, downregulate transcription of NF-kB, and limit the production of both nitric oxide and prostaglandin E2

3CL protease inhibitors

Fenofibrate

Vitamin C

Pepe bypassing internet censorship

Vitamin D

Zinc

Immunosuppression

See also Treat COVID-19 with immunosuppressors? on Talk

NLRP3 inhibitors

See also #Cytokine storm

Nicotine

Human Interferon Alpha

Interferon Alpha 1b

Conclusion In this investigator-initiated open-label study, we observed that rhIFN-α nasal drops can effectively prevent COVID-19 in treated medical personnel

Interferon Alpha 2b

Interferon Alpha 14

Antibodies

Antibody bound to the surface spike protein of SARS-CoV-2

Convalescent serum

Monoclonal antibodies

Nitric oxide

Experimental treatment

Preventatives

Cuba uses homeopathic treatment [PrevenGo Vir] to raise defenses against COVID-19 Dr. Francisco Durán, head of the Department of Epidemiomology of the Minsap, assured that the treatment does not prevent the person from getting COVID-19, but can provide better resistance to face the disease.

Long-term patients

Recommendations

Eastern Virginia Medical School recommends treating later stages of COVID-19 with methylprednisone. This is what we suggested as a possible treatment in March 2020.

Costs

Low covid death rate "mysteries"

Haiti

Anti Limphatic Filiaris Mass Drug Administration Campaign

In recent years the WHO has recommend a triple drug treatment programme for The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (LF). The regimen IDA consists of Ivermectin, Diethylcarbamazine and Albendazole. Such mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns with IDA had taken place in 2019-2020 in Haiti.

Excess deaths

Possible cases before Wuhan outbreak

Biological origin?

Earliest known cases of COVID-19 by country

Mojiang Miners Passage

See also the talk page

November intelligence report

French pentathlete Élodie Clouve with gold medal at the Wuhan Military Games
The news was not about the novel corona virus but about a small outbreak of bubonic plague from Inner Mongolia:

Wuhan Military Games

US origin?

Unknown respiratory illness hits a care home in Virginia in July 2019
Virginia Department of Health warns residents of increase in respiratory illnesses on July 19, 2020

France

Italy?

There was a cluster of pneumonia in Piacenza in December 2019. Piacenza is only 10 km from Codogno, the birthplace of the Italian pandemic. A phylogenetic analysis of the Italian SARS-COV-2 shows it is closely related to the Wuhan strain, so the two events cannot be directly related.

UK?

Waste water

The finding of this study has been called into question e.g. (here), (Twitter thread). It contradicts the analysis of sequenced virus genomes which say that the virus jumped onto humans only in November 2019. There is only one sample in the study that shows partial virus debris and it is not even specific for SARS-CoV-2.

Relationship to vaping illness?

Note: There is no proper way to diagnose "vaping disease". The diagnosis is made by excluding all other causes. In Wuhan all these cases would have been diagnosed as COVID-19, even without a test for coronavirus RNA.

Breakdown of healthcare system

When panic hits, people start hoarding toilet paper
  • 'That's when all hell broke loose': Coronavirus patients start to overwhelm US hospitals - CNN, March 25, 2020
  • "About real coronavirus situation in London, by Olga Solouhina, said to reside in London.
    Highly negative; possibly Russian totalitarian propaganda; mentions "the most expensive medical insurance" paid for 20 years (?). Makes comparisons of accessibility of health care in London and Moscow, with Moscow faring better. Claims of lack of care are (somewhat) biased as there is indeed no by-the book treatment anywhere and effects of anything else are uncertain, Perhaps more supportive care in Moscow, but unclear whether it is so in provincial Russia. Included for completeness and research purposes; details need verification.

Ecuador

Regional breakdown showing negative excess mortality in most areas of Ecuador during lockdown (Data for March 21 - April 23) . In areas where Covid had not taken hold the lower deathrates are presumed to be due to factors such as fewer traffic accidents, violent crime etc
Cites estimate of 7,600 deaths and 106,000 infected in Guayas.
Estimates casualty rates at at least three times more than official figures. Automatic translation: ..the increase is due to the inability of the public health system to provide care, since all these vulnerable people and groups are not being able to be cared for in their habitual and daily emergencies (hypertensive patients, diabetics, cardiac patients, asthmatics , immunosuppressed, older people with common flu, etc, etc, etc) thus causing a dramatic increase in the number of daily deaths in Guayaquil.etc)
Calculates that for the period March 21 - April 22 there were 6,866 excess deaths in Quayaquil. The weighted adjustment for the Guayas region is 10,140

See also Bolivia

Brazil

DNA(CP)R

Preparation

Countries best prepared for a pandemic.
Mascot given to all Event 201 participants

Wuhan virus laboratory

See also /Lab-leak theory and US bioweapons programme#Gain of function research

Bioweapon?

See also US bioweapons program

Infowar

Putin knows how to deal with the coronavirus outbreak
No, Trump did not tell anyone to drink bleach.

Geopolitical implications

Is China winning?

Blame China

Intelligence reports

https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Unclassified-Summary-of-Assessment-on-COVID-19-Origins.pdf

Analysis

Comparing 2009 H1N1 outbreak and 2019 nCoV outbreak

Diagnosed

  • UK PM Boris Johnson (recovered)
  • Russian PM Mikhail Mishustin (announcd April 30, 2020, self-isolating).
  • Donald Trump
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