Talk:Yarova War Memorial strike

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FrontRightOfVanMostDamage.png

Sources

LocationIncludingClinic.png

Location: https://satellites.pro/Ukraine_map#49.061640,37.636298,19

Location described as Ukrpochta is near St. Kazan Church, Ukrainian Orthodox Church of Moscow Patriarchate, belonging to Eparhia listing humanitarian aid from Russia on its website. There is a small outpatient clinic located on the other side of the church.

Time: reported as 10.37am or 10.40am or 10.53 am about 11am Sept, 9 ,2025

"Ukrposhta", on memorial square, near Church ?

Woman (centre) appears to be stamping on something. What are the personnel focused on?
What is the UNHCR tarpaulin covering? - Perhaps it was thrown-in, as an afterthought, to prevent people seeing the contours of that part of the crater which might indicate the direction of the 'arrival'
CraterPavingSLabs.png
Facing NNW
Facing NW
Looking roughly WNW - Greater displacement on left - implying strike came from N/NNE
St. Kazan Church, Ukrainian Orthodox Church of Moscow Patriarchate
Assuming a unitary warhead would give a directional blast - detonating on impact. And seeing a line between the two fallen trees (where The van was parked) This fits roughly with the side of crater with greater deformation... This implies a NNE origin. --Diagonal (talk) 09:49, 30 October 2025 (UTC)
YarovaScene.png
YarovaSceneFacing SSE.png
Looking NNE suggesting the arrival came on the line of the mast - more or less
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/179091. Damaged car belongs to Ukrainian post service 'Ukrposhta'


  • Damaged car belongs to Ukrainian post service 'Ukrposhta'
  • Location is near St. Kazan Church of Ukrainian Orthodox Church of Moscow Patriarchate, belonging to Eparhia listing humanitarian aid from Russia on its website (Russian and Ukrainian support services phone numbers listed)
  • Witnesses interviewed were there queuing for postal services, some to receive pensions, some to receive delivery, some arriving before and some after the attack, or surviving the attack.
  • Was the service delivered out of the damaged vehicle? Including moneys? Or else, where is the post office located? Bodies appear to be near the car, not near a building.
  • Blood, damaged bicycles, a stroller are located on a small memorial square, 10 stone black tablets (or 12 maybe) listing 6 or so names each. in Russian., (private Privalov, private Plaksa, Lieutenant, Private, Private), probably WW2 era. Did they bring 'Ukrpochta' car onto the square to distribute pensions and shipments??? With the front of the vehicle getting heavily damaged???
  • Possibly some shrapnel damage (bike tires? car right side? ), but not a lot of it.
  • Noted, long 1 story warehouse -style brick building, with windows and red roof, is seen on the video.

--Resup (talk) 10:47, 26 October 2025 (UTC)

This is apparently the Ukrposhta building adjacent to the large Radio or telecomms Mast. We are told the locals queued at the van - as the office was out of service. Or somehting along those lines. See the CPR map also.

Ukrposhta2.png

Ukrainian

CFRmap.png
WarMemorialENvironsMap.png
weapon fragment?
Fragment of UNHCR tarpaulin
"Since the start of the war, we have constantly changed safety procedures, and as seen in the video, the vehicle was parked under trees to reduce the risk of being spotted. But apparently, someone leaked the coordinates," Smilianskyi said.

Most reports refer to a single FAB. One mentions two, likely as two craters pictured. --Diagonal (talk) 18:26, 20 October 2025 (UTC)

more videos

Locals say the ambulance did not arrive because of the risk of being hit again. They were saved by military medics.

White angels Ukr Police 12 Sept - related to Radio Freedom youtube video below. Unhappy looking locals 'evacuated' or just rounded up


Claimed Locals

Ярова після тої самої трагедії: люди ховають рідних і терміново виїжджають зі сльозами на очах ("Yarova after the same tragedy: people bury their relatives and urgently leave with tears in their eyes" - Ukr), 'Radio Freedom Ukraine', Sep. 12, 2025

Woman, speaking Ukrainian, to 'Radio Freedom Ukraine' reporter, speaking Ukrainian

W: The 'fly-in' ...I live here nearby...
R: How old was your husband"? --- W 72
R And he came for his pension? ---W: Yes. he came for the pension. And he stayed there [forever] . 15 minutes to 11, there was a fly-in. The one and the other. There were 3 fly-ins. One, fell near the school. And there, one flied, then the other

Noted, fly-in = prilet (Rus), commonly used to describe some kind of unspecified ammunition landing and exploding. Noted, stovepiping title of the report. Noted, have not spotted other craters on videos I watched --Resup (talk) 17:55, 1 November 2025 (UTC)


Meduza write up

‘I should never have just hoped for the best’ A Russian airstrike killed 25 Ukrainian civilians, mostly seniors waiting to collect their pensions. Journalists spoke to a resident and two local evacuation volunteers. — Meduza

Vladyslav  Sloviansk resident, evacuation vehicle driver for the charitable foundation Breath of Hope Mission

By the morning of September 9, we had five or six addresses for evacuation from Yarova [addresses provided by police, local organizations, and volunteers]. Four families refused to go. They said things in the area were quiet. The rest left with us. We also passed by the spot in the center of town where there used to be a post office, right next to a church. A large crowd had gathered there, and we stopped to ask for directions.
On our way back to Sloviansk, we got a call that said there were a lot of dead and injured. Police told us: bring body bags and go collect the dead. We grabbed the bags in Sloviansk and drove back.
By the time we got to Yarova, the military had already finished everything: all the wounded had been taken to the field hospital, all the dead to the Sloviansk morgue

About the White Angels

Pro-Russian sources on Telegram have claimed White Angels involved in forced mobilizations, and more grimly child abductions

Russian

See video

(autotranslate)

In the part of Donbass occupied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in the village of Yarovaya, the enemy organised an expected provocation with an attack on civilians in the style of the attack on the Kramatorsk railway station. This time, they targeted pensioners who were receiving their pensions. Twenty-one people were killed and more than 20 were injured.

I would like to remind you that in mid-August, the Russian Ministry of Defence warned about the preparation of such a provocation.

According to the Ministry of Defence, a missile attack or a drone strike is being prepared on a densely populated neighbourhood in the Kharkiv region, possibly a hospital, with a large number of casualties.

Media representatives are to record this strike, for which Russia will be held responsible.

Sources in the Russian Defence Ministry have warned that provocations are also possible in other populated areas. Their aim is to create negative media coverage and conditions for disrupting negotiations between the US and Russia. (c) Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation. 12 August 2025

Overall, this is a crude and bloody provocation in the style of the strike on the Kramatorsk railway station, which was hit by a Ukrainian Tochka-U missile.

It is quite clear why they are doing this: they will beg for new air defence systems and sanctions.


(Auto Translate)

TASS website editorial office 09 September, 17:59

MOSCOW, 9 September. /TASS/. Reports circulated by Kyiv that Russian air forces dropped an aerial bomb on the village of Yarovaya in the DPR during pension payments are fake. This was reported by the Telegram channel ‘War on Fakes’. See also Military operation in Ukraine. Chronicle of events on 9 September 2025

"We are witnessing yet another provocation by the Kyiv regime. This is indicated by a number of facts, [including] the coordinated nature of the disinformation campaign. The information first appeared on Vladimir Zelensky's resources, after which it was immediately picked up by Ukrainian propaganda outlets; <...> there were no reports of casualties before Zelensky's posts appeared," the message says.

A source from the Russian Defence Ministry's Telegram channel confirmed that ‘the Russian Armed Forces did not strike the village today.’ The last strike by the Russian Air Force in this area was carried out on the night of 7 September, but not on the village itself, but closer to the neighbouring Novoselovka, located practically on the line of contact. In addition, the location shown in the Ukrainian videos can be easily identified from satellite images, as there are distinctive landmarks: the post office building, the memorial and the trees around it.

The shape and size of the crater shown does not correspond to that of a real aerial bomb. The most common Russian bomb in the ATO zone is the FAB-500, which contains about 200 kg of explosives. When dropped, such ammunition causes incomparably greater destruction. Even the smallest FAB-250 contains about 100 kg of explosives, while the video shows the consequences of the explosion of a device with a power of several kilograms in TNT equivalent.

"The location chosen for the provocation is also noteworthy. The part of the DPR that remains under the control of the Kiev regime is important in several respects: control over resources, defence and politics. Its loss automatically deprives Ukraine of one of its most important bargaining chips. Against this backdrop, the provocation is intended to demonstrate Kiev's ‘concern’ for the population of the controlled territories and, conversely, to show Russia's ‘cruelty,’ the article states.

After the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump in Alaska, Kiev and its European sponsors launched a campaign to reject negotiations and ‘discredit Russia in order to accuse Moscow of disrupting the peace settlement,’ the statement added. ‘Attempts to accuse Russia of deliberately killing civilians also serve this purpose,’ the statement concluded.

British

"Who's left here? All pensioners and old folks," said local resident Vasyl Nehoduyko, 65. "There's no one else."

He added that he saw what he described as a reconnaissance drone fly overhead before the strike.

UN / Official

Others

Observations and first guess

Inferred zone of attack's origin
Sept 9 DeepStateMAP День 1332 Map of the war in Ukraine.png

Trajectory from blast direction seems to be from NNW. --Diagonal (talk) 19:42, 14 October 2025 (UTC)

Perhaps from a more northerly direction, on reflection. --Diagonal (talk) 19:20, 17 October 2025 (UTC)
From observing crater and blast effects to infer an origin within 003-009 degrees --Diagonal (talk) 11:31, 25 October 2025 (UTC)
The line from crater to radio mast is 013 (roughly NbE) Extrapolated in image below

KupianskLyman 013.png ProjectOwlSept9.png

CraterToMast.png LocationIncludingClinic.png

Probably bit more than 013 degrees looking at google earth --Diagonal (talk) 14:14, 1 November 2025 (UTC)

Glide bomb?

Ukrainians don't provide any evidence to support their FAB 250 claim.Although news channel videos appear to show fairly recent other damage in the vicinity. If there is anything to the glide bomb line then why not. One of these?: https://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/GBU-39_Small_Diameter_Bomb#Ground_Launched_Small_Diameter_Bomb . --Diagonal (talk) 19:03, 15 October 2025 (UTC)

DeepState Mapping has the GLSDB as not in service - although supplies to Ukraine were resumed in March 2025. --Diagonal (talk) 20:18, 3 November 2025 (UTC)

From what's accessible in English, no witnesses report a 'whoosh' noise before impact; that you'd likely hear with a glide bomb. --Diagonal (talk) 19:49, 30 October 2025 (UTC)

I haven't seen any obvious weapon casing or parts in the footage of the debris so far. There is a tarpaulin in the crater in some footage. --Diagonal (talk) 19:09, 15 October 2025 (UTC)

For reference the parts of a FAB 250. If such parts were present they would've been presented by the Ukrainian sources. --Diagonal (talk) 20:23, 3 November 2025 (UTC)

FallenFAB250.png

Misc

The impact was not on open ground, nor on any completely hard surface - paving over hard ground. So the size of crater in proportion to the force of the blast would lie between that expected on open ground and that on a hard built up surface. --Diagonal (talk) 10:47, 21 October 2025 (UTC)

Kupiansk lies to 73km to the north of Yarova. (say 70km to Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi) - bearing roughly 005degrees from Yarova (Yarovaya)

In this photo of the side of van the exposed to the blast does not appear to be affected by 'area weapon' tungsten fragments - such as those used by the M30 (AW) --Diagonal (talk) 10:08, 25 October 2025 (UTC)

LookingSouthWest.png

Himars strike range

See also https://www.thinkdefence.co.uk/2022/12/land-precision-strike/

M270 launch vehicle is also a possibility - still in operation with Ukraine partners eg: https://x.com/Gabriel64869839/status/1927705615406596149

GMLRS M31 / M31A1 / M31A2 (Unitary) 15 – 92+ km GPS / INS 91 kilogram (200 pound) Unitary High-Explosive. Precision strike on point targets (buildings, command posts).
  • M30A1 rockets with Alternative Warhead (AW). Range: 15–92 km (9.3–57.2 mi). GMLRS rocket that replaces the M30's submunitions with approximately 182,000 pre-formed tungsten fragments for area effects without unexploded ordnance.[102] Entered production in 2015.[91][92] This warhead is superior not just because it does not use cluster munitions but is also superior to a normal high explosive round: "A high explosive round is very impressive because it produces a big bomb and large pieces of shrapnel, but this round is small pellets and covers a much larger area."[103] The :*M30A1 uses a proximity sensor fuze mode with a 10 meter burst height.[104]
  • M30A2 rockets with Alternative Warhead (AW). Range: 15–92 km (9.3–57.2 mi). Improved M30A1 with Insensitive Munition Propulsion System (IMPS). Only M30 variant in production since 2019.[105]
  • M31 rockets with 200 lb (91 kg) high-explosive unitary warhead. Range: 15–92 km (9.3–57.2 mi). Entered production in 2005. The warhead is produced by General Dynamics and contains 51 pounds (23 kg) of PBX-109 high explosive in a steel blast-fragmentation case.[106]
  • M31A1 rockets with 200 lb (91 kg) high-explosive unitary warhead. Range: 15–92 km (9.3–57.2 mi). Improved M31 with new multi-mode fuze that added airburst to the M31's fuze point detonation and delay.[107]
  • M31A2 rockets with 200 lb (91 kg) high-explosive unitary warhead. Range: 15–92 km (9.3–57.2 mi). Improved M31A1 with Insensitive Munition Propulsion System (IMPS). Only M31 variant in production since 2019.

If a HIMARS rocket was involved, then the M31A2 looks to be most likely candidate here. --Diagonal (talk) 10:38, 25 October 2025 (UTC)

As they are shoot and scoot systems, if a HIMARS system was used it was likely not from a location amongst concentrated positions. Searches for M31 strikes reveal a level of damage that seems consistent with that seen here. And it would from more than 15km from the target. --Diagonal (talk) 11:43, 6 November 2025 (UTC)

https://x.com/trip_to_valkiri/status/1983960998987100166 Ukrainian M142 "HIMARS" going into a fire mission with a single 227mm MLRS rocket is a truly sad sight...

https://x.com/Misfit4Ukr68491/status/1708555946191114597 M142 #HIMARS launches a single GMLRS rocket from the roadside in 🇺🇦.

Radius per weight

There are studies, of dimensional analysis + experiments sort, about crater size vs charge weight. (see especially table 2 here, also see other references, this is one of several on the subject) . I did not have take to look carefully, but radius scales as charge ^(1/3) (so crater volume is proportional to the charge), and for 256 lb charge , which is approx what FAB 250 would have (250 is kg, but this is total weight, not expls. charge weight which is less), the radius is dry 'alluvium' ground is, like, 8.4 feet, = 2.56 m , for ground-level expl. , and more if it digs in. As gliding bombs could be used, ground level could be the case. And that was paved road, so could be less.

So, I do not really know what to make of it. It is certain that Russian would not do this on purpose. Gliding bombs are imprecise, so accidentally hitting civilians in a large scale conflict, during intense city warfare, is not totally out. Size and shape size wise, I am not really sure what this is, and did not look closely, but it could be tricky to tell with certainty (I am not certain what size this actually shows, or what this is). On the other hand, the timing of this, in the context of the stage of the conflict and the state of Ukro-Western propaganda, makes all this highly suspicious , of course. Noted, there is constant stream of Western reports where Russians are killed, humiliated, or if not, accused of 'committing war crimes', while slowly churning on in Pokrovsk, Kupiansk and elsewhere. What seems certain is that Russians would not do it on purpose, while the other side could, despite Ukro-Western press portrayal being the exact opposite --Resup (talk) 06:17, 23 October 2025 (UTC)

If I follow you right:
Estimating radius of crater to be approx 170cm: the inferred explosive charge (with same ground condition as you give) would be approx 73lbs. There doesn't seem to be a weapon system of that charge. But allowing that paving would mean a reduced crater size. We might be in the ball park of a 90lb charge. The HIMARS M30/31 rockets have a 91kg warhead. If that has similar weight/ charge ration as the FAB? --Diagonal (talk) 21:44, 23 October 2025 (UTC)
Yes, but could be difficult to match with certainty. Crater size depends on the ground hardness, depth or height where it went off, shell used; the 1/3 scaling power is an approximation; etc. Also there is great variety of charges, IED can be obviously custom-made as desired; Soviet/Rus OFAB 100 , FAB 70 , FAB 100, Tiulpan mortar, some Uragan or Tornado MLRS rockets, would be somewhere in the range. Also depends, is it modern HE or something older/less potent. During WW2, there were FAB 50, 70, 100, initially made of converted artillery shells; who knows are they still around; OFAB 100 is listed as post-Soviet Russian. US M31 for Himars, also somewhere in that range. Small FAB/OFAB can be owned by either side, and does not need to be dropped, could be sitting there. Also, as you say, they do not show any remnants of it, and crater seems pretty round and even (if I looked at the right thing) --Resup (talk) 17:43, 25 October 2025 (UTC)
I think it fair to assume this was intentional strike. Would be too much of a coincidence.


It also appears that the scene was inspected (evidence removed) before being filmed. Bearing in mind that Ukrainian military/security personnel in attendance rather than civil emergency services.--Diagonal (talk) 19:47, 28 October 2025 (UTC)
It looks more like intentional, by Ukraine, than the alternatives. And without doubt exploited by Ukraine, as of all the countless incidents of civilians killed, most of them with little or no coverage (and pre-war almost exclusively pro-Russian civilians killed by Ukrainian strikes), Ukrowestern media is pushing now this story. Noted, a local resident claimed there were three 'fly-ins' (prilet , = some kind of unspecified ammunition landing and exploding). Will enter under sources. --Resup (talk) 17:36, 1 November 2025 (UTC)

YarovaSceneFacing SSE.png YarovaCrater.png

If we estimate paving stones to be 25cm,sq
Probably a bit over generous with crater size before. Perhaps closer to 135cm --Diagonal (talk) 10:35, 25 October 2025 (UTC)
With a 130cm crater radius a charge of 39lbs would be proportionate to the example quoted above. The crater is shallow overall.
The M31 unitary warhead has 58lbs high explosive. And the GBU-39 (B) 37lbs. Something with charge close to that range seems plausible. --Diagonal (talk) 19:41, 30 October 2025 (UTC)

Immediate conclusions

The Ukrainian side have not produced any remnants of a FAB 250. If there was anything obvious that would have surely been included in their reports/presentations. And they are literally covering up something in the crater (perhaps collected parts or an embedded core). So it's fair to disbelieve their narrative.

The apparent direction of origin happens to be in line with UA forces in cauldron around Kupiansk. --Diagonal (talk) 10:47, 21 October 2025 (UTC)

It's reasonable to assume the strike involved a system with precision accuracy. And the timing suggests coordination. --Diagonal (talk) 20:04, 30 October 2025 (UTC)

Subsequent testimony