Talk:Khakovka Dam collapse
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Sources
- https://search.brave.com/search?q=shelling+mining+nova+khakovka+canal+&source=desktop&tf=2014-01-01to2023-06-05
- https://search.brave.com/search?q=nova+kakhovka+dam+control&source=web&tf=2014-01-01to2022-11-05
- https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1665992292040056833
Comments from local sources on the night
- (To confirm) residents Telegram channel comments from the night [1]
- Since the morning of June 6, people began to report hearing explosions in a local Telegram channel about Nova Kakhovka with over five thousand participants. Some had lost their water supply, and some had already suggested that the dam might have burst.
- Residents argued among themselves, some claiming that if the dam had exploded, all services – including Ukraine’s State Emegerncy Service (DSNS) – would have alerted them. One resident wrote in Ukrainian at 2:45 Moscow time that he saw a flare.
- “The water is very noisy ... very loud, I've never heard such a thing. I'm scared of something... The flares are orange flares.”
- Resident Lydia Kuznetsova responded: “But that's water, but why is it so loud? We can be without light again with these booms.”
- Several dozen people commented that they could not sleep because of the noise, and were worried that something had happened. However, other residents reassured them and claimed that they did not see a “global flood,” did not hear explosions, and asked them not to cause panic.
- https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/17936109 - The dam of the Kakhov hydroelectric station in the Kherson region collapsed due to damage, goes flooding of territories. This was reported by TASS source in power structures. "It was quiet at night. There were no arrivals. The dam could not stand it, one support collapsed, and flooding went, "he said.
Seismic signals dam failures
Seismic signals captured by geologists and testimony on social media suggest a huge ground-shaking noise was heard in the early hours of Tuesday,.. [2]
Papers on seismic analysis of dam failures
- https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978-3-642-36197-5_409-1
- https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313327339_Characteristics_and_interpretation_of_the_seismic_signal_of_a_field-scale_landslide_dam_failure_experiment
- https://mdpi-res.com/d_attachment/water/water-13-02757/article_deploy/water-13-02757-v2.pdf?version=1633779774
Key Points/Takeaways
Timings indicate no use of explosives to blow the dam
- The large seismic event said to indicate a large explosion occurred at 2:54am local time, but footage revealed the dam had already breached by 2.46am. This indicates that the seismic event was most probably related to the HPP building giving way, rather than the use of explosives. An earlier weak signal at 2.35am subsequently reported by NORSAR, is then likely to be the first breaching event. NORSAR has subsequently removed text from the web page
The facility had been hit repeatedly by Ukraining shelling
- The dam was on the frontline, with Russian forces present. Repeated Ukrainian shelling included the use of Himars system. It caused marked damage to the dam close to the HPP.
A road section and its supports collapsed 1-2 June Two thick concrete columns - supporting a previously shelled section of roadway close to the HPP - collapsed and were washed away between 1-2 June, according to satellite photos from the dates. Those supports formed part of the spillways for sluice gates 2,3,4, close to the HPP. The initial breach occurred on that side of the central barrage section.
Sluice gate 1 badly damaged months earlier
- The sluice gate closest to the HPP had sustained significant damage from Ukrainian shelling months earlier. Resulting in more turbulent flows from that section. The threat from Ukrainian forces was reported, by the local Mayor in March, as preventing repair and maintenance operations.
Canal blocked up
- The lock canal was filled-in during September '22 by the Russians to build a new road crossing, after Ukrainian shelling had destroyed the road bridge. This would then prevent the canal being used as a slipflow around the dam in the event of high water levels.
Unusually high water levels in the reservoir
- Statista: The water level in the Kakhovka Reservoir, Ukraine's largest reservoir by volume, was more than 17 meters above the mean sea level at the end of May 2023, based on observations using the Sentinel-6 satellite series. That was the highest level over the observed period from the beginning of 2020.
- The high levels appear to be due to heavy rain and some amount of excess discharge from the Ukrainian controlled dams upstream the Dnieper. The Kakhovka dam did still release a lot of water downstream in the weeks prior, although this was only through a few gates close to the HPP. Normal rotations and maintenance could not be carried out.
--Diagonal (talk) 08:38, 22 June 2023 (UTC)
Storm Shadow Missiles?
- Did Russia Destroy The Nova Kakhova Dam? - Moon of Alabama, June 13, 2023
Reported comments from Putin
Putin - about the explosion of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station:
I will say a strange thing, unfortunately, this thwarted their counteroffensive in this area. Unfortunately, why? Because it would be better if they were advancing there. It's better for us, because it would be very bad for them to attack there. But since such a spill occurred, the offensive did not take place. Source