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News
(Pinned) 11 Sep. RFK Jr. : The Biden administration’s policy of maximum confrontation, seeking Russia’s humiliating defeat and regime change, is a recipe for nuclear immolation
3 Oct. Biden: "I don't think Putin will come" (video)
28 Sep. Humans-like Trump meeting with Zelenski (video -truthsocial) is in stark contrast with Harris teleprompter lecture (c-span) while meeting the same greenmil.- fatigue[d] person.
250 thousand Ukrainians relocated to Belarus since the start of the conflict-Belarus FM
10-11 Sep. "Blinken hints US will lift restrictions on Ukraine using long-range arms in Russia". "Decision understood to have already been made in private as secretary of state says in Kyiv that US will continue to adapt policy" - The Guardian
6 Sep. Kursk invasion battles appear to turn into positional war. Heavy armor is quickly destroyed. Attacking side has a disadvantage, It appears that Russia did not deploy large enough forces to deal with this decisively, and counting on, reportedly, heavy daily Ukrainian losses.
CNN video shows alleged execution of Ukrainian prisoners, shot from a drone in low resolution. In another video, shot from a close distance, Ukrainian would-be prisoner attacks Russian soldier, before 3 others and himself are killed. (Veracity of either video is uncertain. They appear to show different incidents).
3 Sep. In Kursk region, Ukrainian forces shot at a civilian car, a father and child are killed.
25 Aug. Pavel Durov, owner and CEO of Telegram was arrested in France. Fake arrest warrants for Durov and the owners of Rumble and GAB appear online on September 5.
19 Aug. "Akhmat" SpN commander Apti Aluidinov: "in one of the many cases , in Sudzha, Ukrainian forces used orphanage children as human shields, placing them on the second floor of the building, with themselves on the first" (02:15); "I received great number of photographs where civilians [in Kursk] were executed, point blank" (03:50). (He did not publish photoovisuals).
12 Aug. Significant fire over cooling tower of Zaporozhie NPP is seen in viral photo, after the tower was hit by Ukrainian drone leading to "burning of metal-plastic elements". According to Ru reports, reactors were previously stopped; the cooling tower has been "unused" -(unclear since when); and no rads increase over background levels. Western media parrot nonsensical Ukrainian claims that Russians start the fire.
Ukrainian invasion of borderline Kursk region: heavy armor, several thousand Ukr troops believed to be involved; Wagner's attributed tactics of narrow breakthrough/expanding 'flower' said to be used; audiovisual evidence that Ukr troops shot at civilian vehicles and an ambulance when establishing fire control over roads in near-border region. Present reports indicate at least 12 civilians killed, over 100 thousand (to be) evacuated. Invasion is gradually eliminated, with significant Ukr losses. Goal of invasion appears to be media impact and strengthening negotiations positions. On military side, it failed at significant cost. (Details to follow)
4 Aug. "F-16 spotted over Odessa - local channels"
26 -27 Jul. Ukrainian GUR claims that Ukrainian drones attacked strategic Russian airfields in Engels, Dyagilevo, Olenia, and "damaged" strategic bomber Tu 22M3 in Olenya, near Murmansk, by Barents sea shores in the Arctic, some 1800 km away from Ukraine (nb, no reason to be sure the latter drone arrived from Ukraine). There does not seem to be independent confirmations or visuals of Tu bomber damage. Ukrainian sources published a video of some falling plane, somewhere, with burning tale; there does not seem to be consistency between that and the claims made (which appear to be about hitting a parked plane). Yet Fighterbomber post indicates that something bad happened in the morning of July 26, and somebody died. And that it happened after multiple flights of (apparently, British) RC-135 reconnaissance plane accompanied by 2 Eurofighters, towards the shores of Crimea, which continued. (It is unclear where and how a fatal incident occurred). Yet as those attacks involve strategic sights, it may be opening a Pandora box.
- Updated. Radio Svoboda: "High-resolution satellite image from July 27 shows no visible traces of Ukrainian strike on Olenya strategic aviation base in Murmansk region"
26 Jul. At the honeymoon of Harris path to ascend WH, David Urban of B(ad)PR firm, and Mik Pompeo of MIC published in the "WSJ" an article "A Trump Peace Plan for Ukraine" possibly of own creation. Implementing "the plan" would outdo anything seen so far on the ground.
Ukrainian police arrests 18 years old neonazi supporter from Dnepropetrovsk, accused of killing controversial Ukrainian ultranationalist Irina Farion.
25 Jul. TASS: "The EC banned Europeans from participating in the exchange of frozen assets with the Russian Federation". (Noted, hard to locate, not located in the quoted 400 p.+ document. If accurate, the "Europeans" would be the ultimate victims of the EU sanctions).
Jun-Jul. Ukrainian officials start talking about involving Russia in peace negotiations (despite the Ukrainian law prohibiting "проведення переговорів з Президентом Російської Федерації В. Путіним"), to a lukewarm welcome from Moscow ("better than war to the last Ukrainian"); however concrete path to successful talks appears missing.
21 Jul. Claim by Spanish ex-col. Pedro Banos (unverified): In Odessa, "muerto al menos 18 miembros del SAS servicio del especial del aire Britanico ", "and 25 wounded" (interview video)
8 Jul. Again: "Russian" missile strikes children's hospital in Kiev on the eve of NATO summit. Pothead "experts" "confirm", of course Russians always do that on eve of Western meetings. While '"Odessa" reader' matches it to NASAM (1, 2; compare with, missile seen on CNN video, around 2:00 timestamp).
5 Jul: Zelensky congratulates Labour Party's Starmer on UK election victory
4 Jul. Voice of America: Russia, China leaders meet in Kazakhstan at Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in display of deepening cooperation
3 Jul. RU FM (Nastasin): The people of France are seeking a sovereign foreign policy that serves their national interests & a break from the dictate of Washington & Brussels. French officials won’t be able to ignore these profound shifts in the attitudes of the vast majority of citizens (over Le Pen photo). Ukraine supporter Le Pen: “I do not feel absolutely responsible for Russian provocations towards France and towards Emmanuel Macron” "I can tell you that if they thought they had an interest, they wouldn't have tweeted. So, I think it's a provocation and incidentally, it's perhaps also a bit of an interference. Because when you make a tweet like that, so ostentatious, and so provocative, it can be considered a form of interference,”
2 Jul. Victor Orban interview to Weltwoche, about his trip to Kiev, where he offered Zelensky to consider ceasefire before a peace agreement, as hundreds of soldiers are dying every day -- to a reluctant response (video, Eng.) . + Orban and Zelesnky press conference, in Ukr. or auto-translate, official video, 10:54 length. (Compare with: 1993: Rabin and Arafat shake hands at White House with President Clinton)
According to analysis from John Helmer. Russian military have managed to deter the Americans from deploying Global Hawk recon drones over the Black Sea. Those were believed to be involved in recent missile attacks on Crimea. He reports British manned recon aircraft flying from Romania are now attempting to fill the gap - testing the resolve of Russian side to avoid escalatory incidents.
- According to Russian commenters, after Belousov ordered to 'consider measures' against Western drones over the Black Sea - believed to be involved in support of Ukraine attacks on Russian targets; and after on June 25 (the day when ATACMS cluster munition exploded over a beach in Sevastopol, killing 4 vacationers, including 2 children, and wounding 153) a "Global Hawk" -MiG-31 encounter occurred-- there was a change in Western operations, involving piloted British (27 June, supported by 2 fighter planes, near Crimea) and US (28 June) reconnaissance planes. Measures against the latter were considered by those commenters unlikely, in particular due to several well-known overall weaknesses of Russian operations.
17 Jun Russia will sign "a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty" with North Korea, as part of the ongoing summit in North Korea. This appears to be one of the fall-outs of the Ukraine situation (NB, Ukraine signed multiple security treaties with individual NATO member countries).
16 Jun. Ukraine conference joint communiqué: full text - Reuters. (Oleg Tsarev: it's empty talk)
15 Jun. Sergei Tsekhov (chairman of the Crimean supreme council in 1994, presently RU MP and RU Fed Council international relations committee member): “This is not a conference to achieve peace in Ukraine. This conference is a trial on Russia, for this purpose it was assembled. It is clear that they are using this conference only to maintain their hegemony and influence in the world. They understand that they are losing it. This worries them much more than Ukraine itself. Moreover, they do not care at all about the lives of Ukrainian citizens."
Viktor Tsoi, "Kino", Donetsk, 1990; B52 bomber, "By Dawn's Early Light", Hollywood, 1990.
14 Jun. On the eve of the Ukrainian-led "peace conference" in Switzerland, not attended by Russia, Russia proposed to end the conflict, conditioned on complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from all the territory of the new regions (Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhie, Kherson regions), + Ukraine not joining NATO, + neutral status 1, 2. (Kiev's reaction, so far, rejecting proposal).
- Details emerged of Naftali Bennett, Israeli PM at the time, trying to mediate in 2022, which could keep Ukrainian sovereignty over Zaporozhie and Kherson regions. It is said that his efforts were rejected by Ukraine
Video of battle for central Volchansk, Kharkov direction.
Video of a strike said to be hitting Ukrainian/NATO supplied M270 MLRS.
12 Jun. On Russia's independence day, US sanctions Moscow exchange, Ru national clearance house, and some banks, which so far collectively were leading in $ and Eu currency exchange and setting the exchange rate. That will mostly hurt normal people who travel or have family commitments across the new wall. It will speed up Russia's dedolarization and independence from the West. It will do next to nothing to "Putin's circle", and possibly strengthen them by creating more enrichment avenues. It will also likely come across as either dumb or evil.
11 Jun. The Biden administration lifted a decade old ban on providing military assistance to the Azov Brigade. Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson had hosted representatives of the extreme right grouping in Westminster three weeks earlier.
6 Jun. In further significant deterioration of international security, Russia finally responded to the West officially permitting Ukraine to strike targets in Russia by offering weapons and weapon development programs to actors opposing corresponding Western countries.
31 May. Ru-Ukr POW exchange, 75 for 75
More footage on forced mobilization in Ukraine 1, 2.
28 May. Jeffrey Sachs in his interview goes over the origins of the war in Ukraine, repeating points made here since 2014, with the added benefit of having direct knowledge through contacts with participants, and his elevated public standing.
22 May. Ukrainian attack damaged "Voronezh DM" long range radars in Armavir, part of the Russian early warning system guarding against missile attack, an important element of preventing nuclear war and maintaining strategic balance (satellite photos appear to support posted on social media photos).
20 May: "Kyiv" post: "One of the primary ideas that Russian intelligence is attempting to convey to Ukrainians is that Zelensky will lose his legitimacy as president at the conclusion of his five-year term, that is, after May 20, 2024" -as there were no new elections in this biggest democracy in Europe.
18 May. New tighter mobilization (military draft) law comes into force in Ukraine, where draft is already causing significant tensions. Lower draft age is lowered to 25, draft notes assumed delivered, penalties increased, fines raised 3+fold, more difficult to leave the country, employers tasked with draft responsibilities, MP's exempt, provisions for discharge after period of service removed, prisoners serving term can be drafted (1, 2). Ukrainian truckers staged a protest against mobilization on the Kyiv-Odessa highway-video. "Truck drivers can be mobilized at the border when leaving Ukraine. Most drivers are not exempt. Because of this, drivers have already begun to abandon their trucks and stay abroad".
16 May As Russian forces make advances north of Kharkov, Ukraine, in receipt of Western funding and weapons, launched sea + air drone, and missile attacks on targets in mainland Russia near-border regions and Crimea (some oil processing plant hits and civilian casualties are reported).
Tithe Church of the UOC was demolished by authorities in Kiev
15 May. As if to further underscore global failures of Western policies, a large Russian delegation, including government and local officials, departed for a summit in China. (+ Press conference includes answers on Ukraine).
Slovak PM Robert Fico, opposing Western policies towards Ukraine, is shot in an assassination attempt.
14 May. Blinken in Kiev: Ukrainians! Keep killing more Russians and dying yourselves! We are so proud of you! We will keep sending you more weapons! And make others too! Your bridge to NATO is well-lit! War is peace ! Slava Ukraine ! (Unclear how from the depths of clinical psychoanalysis Arestovich concluded that this means a worldwide push to the Koreas-like peace deal, being prevented by Zelensky)
10 May. US sends another $400 mln in weapons to Ukraine (White House; TASS).
Mishustin is reappointed as Russian PM, in an apparent anti-climax to power struggle rumors.
Update from the Kharkov direction -Cassad.
9 May. Celebrations of the WWII V-day, parades in Moscow, and elsewhere. Moscow: heavy hardware, aerial overfly included (perhaps shorter than pre-war). Groznyi, a row of US-made Hummers seen. Parade in Abkhazia. Parade in Syria, including Ru and Syrian troops.
PM Netanyahu "sent congratulations on Victory Day to the President of the Russian Federation."
6 May. "British ambassador to Moscow N. Casey was warned that the response to Ukrainian strikes using British weapons on Russian territory could be any British military facilities and equipment on the territory of Ukraine and beyond" (after British statement approving such use; and on the eve of the Ru president inauguration).
24 Apr. According to BBC journalist J. Beale, "latest batch of U.K. military aid to Ukraine will include Paveway IV bombs"
23 Apr. US Senate voted 79-18 to concur in the House war funding bill package (Vance among objectors). -CSPAN
22 Apr. TV tower in Kharkov is partially destroyed - video. (Reports on effects of this differ).
20 Apr. "House passes Ukraine aid bill", and a bill which will sell frozen Russian assets to generate revenue for Ukraine. Voting Democrats, all in favor, while more than half Republicans opposed, but it did not matter. US-border-bill-first did not happen. MTG's creative amendments all failed 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Ukrainian flags waved in large numbers on US House floor after the bill passage. Kremlin spokesman reaction. (+Various commenters, FWIW, Apr 20 is Hitler's birthday).
A pregnant woman is killed by Ukrainian shelling of Novaya Tavolzhanka village, Belgorod region, mainland Russia.
19 Apr. Russian war correspondent Semyon Eremin, 42 was killed by Ukrainian drone strike on the border of DPR and Zaporozhskii region.
18 Apr. US HR Ukrainian war sustainment bill : AmericaLast foreign wars package.
17 Apr. TIME magazine names Yulia Navalnaya the new puppet president of Russia.
12 Apr, Donetsk. Russel Bentley ("Texas"), a US volunteer and journalist who moved to DPR in 2014, is missing, search and reward announced. His car, a Ru-made "Niva" SUV is missing too, last seen Apr. 8 parked in front of a food stall in Donetsk.
- It is reported that Bentley "Texas" was killed (погиб). While appeal of his Russian wife suggests that he could have been arrested by Russian forces, apparently unaware of who he is and that he is well known and on their side, possibly after taking photographs at a site of Ukrainian strike in Donetsk. It is said 1, 2 that he drove off to see whether he can help the victims of a nearby shelling, after arriving with his wife at 15:30 at a regional gov office in Petrovsky region of Donetsk for a personal matter. He was not seen since, and a smashed phone was found in his car. No photos or videos were found on his phone SIM/memory cards after 16:15, April 8 (the day he disappeared)- Ru, Eng. Military investigative committee is involved in investigation. Noted, 5 brigade of 1 AC is former "Oplot" (Zakharchenko), presently part of RU armed forces.
- Sledkom: Russel Bentley murderers found, charged. Mistook him for a spy. Died during interrogation. They tried to conceal.
Former SBU officer Prozorov, who defected to Russia before the start of SMO, survived an assassination attempt in Moscow. Explosion occurred under his car, soon after he started it. 1, 2
7 Apr. "The Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the dome of the 6th power unit of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant. There were no critical injuries or casualties. There were no threats of violation of safety limits. The radiation background at the station and the surrounding area has not changed and is at a level corresponding to the normal operation of power units and does not exceed natural background values " -t.me/znppofficial, TASS.
22 Mar. Crocus City Hall terrorist attack in Moscow. At least 144 concert goers were killed, in addition 165 required hospitalization. US and the West blamed it on ISIS; ISIS is reported in the Western media as claiming responsibility. Video: "ISIS or Ukraine?" --"Of course, Ukraine" --Nikolai Patrushev (same short videoclip @ 1, 2, & elsewhere). Noted, 4 directly involved terrorists (all ethnic Tajiks) were caught on their escape route towards Ukraine (and, FWIW, they made statements to interrogators that those were their instructions).
12-15 Mar. Intense fighting near Russian border in Kharkov and Sumy areas continues for the 3 day, with significant Ukrainian forces trying to penetrate Russian border on the eve of elections in Russia, and apparently taking heavy losses. RU MoD [estimated] Ukrainian losses: 1500, including about 550 irrevocable
12 Mar. Gladkov, governor of Belgorod region, mainland Russia: In Belgorod, an enemy UAV crashed into the city administration building. There are two victims: one woman received shrapnel wounds, the second a concussion. The victims are provided with all necessary medical care. As a result of the explosion, windows in the building were broken and the façade was damaged. All emergency services are on site.
In Belgorod, near the railway station, a drone fell on the roof of a shopping center. There were no casualties. According to preliminary data, one car was damaged. The area is cordoned off. All operational services are working on site
Quoting RU MoD : Ukrainian attempt at 3 am to invade Russian border area of Belgorod region was repelled-videos, details Eng., Ru.
11 Mar. Preparations for Ukrainian raid in the Belgorod region discovered, Ukrainian detachment and heavy weapons destroyed (report , video, posted around 7 pm)
French involvement of 1918: Even the most seasoned skeptics believed everything, even that Ukraine would be declared one of the departments of France and President Poincaré himself would go to Kyiv to solemnly proclaim this... Rumors under Petlyura acquired the character of a spontaneous, almost cosmic phenomenon, similar to a pestilence. It was general hypnosis. (+more, Tsarev/Podoliaka)
10 Mar. Another Abrams tank destroyed near Berdychi
Pope urges to negotiate (video) (AI reaction)
9 Mar. In one of many similar Ukrainian draft videos, 34 Ukrainians trying to escape draft in a van are brutally arrested, beaten near Romanian border (with sound, Musk comment mentioned, 2, 3, 4). Also, 5, 6, 7
"Patriot" air defense launchers destroyed near Krasnoarmeysk (2 or 3 nearby launchers claimed in various reports)
8 Mar. Czechs raise money to buy in third countries 800 000 artillery shells for Ukraine (or maybe for the first installment of this)
7 Mar. Tucker Carlson, VD Hanson (Hoover inst) comments on the US State of the Union address, heavy on maintaining the war in Ukraine.
5 Mar. Russian patrol boat "Sergey Kotov" was attacked by multiple Ukrainian drones near Feodosia, and sunk after the battle. Sailors survived.
US-made HIMARS destroyed in the Donbass (video).
Victoria Nuland "retired"
Yelena Zelenskaya ("Olena Zelenska") "declines State of the Union invitation" in the USA, apparently because Yulia Navlnaya is also present (with a strange stock photo, WaPo).
Britain ‘prepared to loan Ukraine all frozen Russian central bank assets’
2 Mar. "Business Insider" on Israel supplying early warning system to Ukraine, and worsening relations between Israel and Russia, videos included. (Was Amir Weltmann asleep from 2014 to 2022?)
Another "Abrams" tank destroyed in the Donbass (photos), and its de-mining version is said to be destroyed.
28 Feb. Transnistria appealed to the Russian Federation Council and State Duma, international organizations, and UN with a request for protection from pressure from Moldova (text)
27 Feb. Shoigu: from the start of SMO, Ukrainian forces lost more than 444 thousand people, and since the beginning of 2024 they have been losing an average of over 800 people per day. (Zelensky: Ukrainian forces lost 31 thousand).
26 Feb. It is reported (with photovisuals) that Abrams tank was destroyed in the Donbass for the first time.
Also for the first time Ukrainian Swedish-made Archer self-propelled gun, "the most modern, rapid-firing and accurate" NATO gun, takes a Lancet direct hit.
Ukrainian NASAMS air defense system and S-300 radar are destroyed on the southern front
Hungarian Parliament approves Sweden joining NATO, further solidifying security fault lines.
25 Feb. NYT publishes The spy war: How the CIA secretly helps Ukraine fight Putin (Archive) - With details on CIA aid to the Ukrainian military since 2014. Including, a "network of spy bases constructed in the past eight years that includes 12 secret locations along the Russian border."
22 Feb. Tu-160M visuals in the news for the second day
21 Feb. Russian forces took control of Pobeda settlement --reports.
Governor of Transbaikal region, on the alleged Ukrainian (--US-supplied--) HIMARS strike on 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade (servicemen were allegedly standing in formation to meet a commander).
20 Feb. Tucker Carlson comments on requested by him interview with Boris Johnson (video, same video, full video, text), and how Ukrainian aid is a "shakedown."
19 Feb. Heavy fighting, reports of partial Russian forces advances in Rabotino and Pobeda.
Ru MoD briefing on chemical weapons violations includes mentions of "severe poisoning" on 5 Dec. 2023 of the head of LPR Leonid Pasechnik by "phenolic compounds" (not reported before), and of Vladimir Saldo, the head of Russian Kherson regional admin, on 9 Aug 2022 by ricin (mentioned in the news earlier). Also included are claims of Ukrainian forces usage of crowd control as well as banned CW on the battlefield.
"UK minister rules out swap for Briton Vladimir Kara-Murza jailed in Russia"
17 Feb. C.-in-C. Syrskii announced withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Avdeevka. (Photos of Russian forces in central areas of Avdeevka appeared earlier).
- "Video tour of the main Ukrainian underground fortress near Avdeevka" . (Heavily fortified).
16 Feb. Death of Alexei Navalny in a Russian penal colony is followed by a massive propaganda campaign and infowar operation in Western mainstream media.
Ukraine and Germany signed an agreement on “security guarantees.” Germany is to give Ukraine 7 bln euros in 2024 and to continue funding and political and legal backing of the war by supporting Ukraine for the foreseeable future.
"In the area of the village of Pobeda (south of Maryinka), another Leopard tank drove in the wrong direction, turning into a crater from a FAB bomb. The crew abandoned the tank and fled. It's promised to tell what happened next a little later. Handsome driver. Probably one of those who was caught on the street".
- ("A lion-hearted Ukrainian patriot is rushing to the front to give his life near Avdeevka, and some Ru saboteurs do not allow him to do this" (video)).
France, another co-sponsor of Minsk agreements, who, like Germany, failed to have Ukraine follow the agreements even on the most basic and important item of stopping shelling and killing civilians in the Donbass, is now to "allocate up to €3 billion in military aid " to Ukraine, with further support for 10 years, including on joining NATO.
15 Feb. 7 people are killed, including a year-old girl, 18 are injured in Ukrainian shelling of Belgorod, mainland Russia. It is said that RM 70 Vamprire MLRS was used, 14 rockets intercepted.
14 Feb. President Macron of France cancels his planned trip to Kiev because of "security reasons". Social media speculates it was because of a planned assassination plot by Ukrainian GUR.
Russian forces continue slow advance and gradually encircle Avdeevka, cutting some important supply roads. Heavily fortified Avdeevka has been used to shell Donetsk throughout the conflict.
Ukrainian sea drone hit Russian big landing ship Caesar Kunikov. Reports, based on Ukrainian videos, photos suggest that the ship may be lost. See also: 1, 2)
8 Feb. (Ukrainian commander-in-chief) Zaluzhnyi is out, Syrskii is in.
Feb 6. Carlson Tucker visits Moscow, to watch "Spartacus" ballet in Bolshoi Theater, and also aiming to interview the President of Russia (explaining why and how).
Feb 4. Ukrainian strike on a bakery in Lisichansk had at least 28 people killed (18 men, 9 women--one said to be pregnant , and 1 child). It became known later that one of those killed was LPR minister of emergency situations col. Poteleshchenko, who was at a birthday party for LPR MP Zhushma, held at a cafe by the bakery.
Feb 1. Orban caves in to EU pressure (which involved 20 billion of frozen money to Hungary) to have new 50 billion euros package over 5 years to Ukraine authorized. Slovakia caved in earlier.
Ukrainian military sinks a Russian missile boat "Ivanovets" in a headline grabbing drone boat swarm attack (with a video supplied). Some analysts consider such capability likely to come from NATO and its contractors e.g. L3 Harris. Russia did not acknowledge loss of the ship officially. But Russian social media posts suggest that the ship was indeed lost, while the crew apparently survived.
Jan 31. President Zelensky had apparently planned to remove his Commander of Armed forces General Zaluzhny. But he found himself unable to replace him in post, so far.
25 Jan. Strelkov was sentenced to 4 years of colony, general regime, on charges of "calls for extremist activity" (his defense will appeal).
24 Jan. Ukraine shot down Russian transport IL -76 plane carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners transported for prisoners exchange, 3 Russian guards, and 6 crew members. All on board were killed.
US Senate Foreign Relations Committee approves by 20-1 REPO Act to use confiscated Russian Central Bank assets for 'Ukraine assistance'. Despite campaigning by Bill Browder, the proposal has been criticized for being likely to undermine the US dollar.
21 Jan. At least 25 killed, 25 wounded, including 2 children in Ukrainian shelling of the area of "Mercury" market, Kirovsky district of Donetsk (photos, video from the scene).
Lavrov in NY for UNSC meeting, Ukraine and Middle East. Donetsk market attack said to be included.
Continuing Ukrainian attempts to attack regions in mainland Russia (Bryansk, Belgorod), and in Crimea.
Zelensky "I have not yet seen enough clear details to say that half a million must be mobilized" (as part of messaging promoting mobilization).
20 Jan. Fire at Novatek plant processing gas condensate for export in Ust'-Lug, Leningrad region, near Estonian border, attributed to a drone attack, with Ukrainian sources competing for responsibility.
12 Jan. American-Chilean journalist Gonzalo Lira died while in Ukrainian custody 1, 2
Golmovskii settlement, near Gorlovka. Ukrainian militants using a drone attacked an ambulance which was evacuating wounded by Ukrainian fire earlier power/utilities engineers. In total, 2 people were killed, including a medic, 4 were wounded.
UK-Ukraine security cooperation agreement is published (PDF). Some Ukrainian concerns over wording of UK commitments.
7 Jan. Former Ukrainian attorney general Lutsenko: Ukraine lost 500 thousand in killed and gravely wounded since the start of the war, 30 thousand lost every month.
RU MoD Shoigu: Ukraine lost 215 thousand in 2023
1 Jan. Ukraine shelled central Donetsk, including "Donbass Palace" 5 star hotel (1, 2), 4 killed and 12 wounded.
Disclaimer
Note on sources. At present, pro -Ukrainian and pro-Russian sources more often than not offer opposing claims on events, and a choice needs to be made. Currently factual part of reporting by pro-Russian sources appear more accurate, complete, and closer to truth, out of the two available alternatives. It is also less known, as the other side has greater support by the Western mass media. For that reason, a lot of reporting here is based on Russian sources. It is not done for the sake of supporting any pre-determined narrative. If and when Ukrainian sources appear more accurate, they will be used without a reservation.
Some Ukrainian source reporting is very good, for example Tatyana Montyan numerous videos, some of them translated, are spot-on and at times appear closer to reality than any pro-this or that narratives. However the bulk of Ukrainian media is unreliable, and often just unbelievable, not passing cross checks (e.g. as was illustrated numerous times by well-read on both sides Ukrainian journalist Anatoly Sharii); or else, is filled with hate and may cheer more people harmed or killed (any of such sort, from any side, is totally unsupported here).
Archive
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Documenting Incidents, Human Rights violations
- Interactive map of human rights violations, human rights NCO organization 'Just Defense' based in Moscow in partnership with Ombudsman-DPR vkontakte (vk.com) Ombudsman-DPR -Daria Morozova (announcement video).
Analysis
- Why They Are Killing Donbass? Novorossia TV with English subs. Blames consumerism, has very interesting cultural observations and quotations (incl late acad. Vladimir Arnold at 21:23 on educational reasons).
Blaming Ukraine
Gennady Korban (Kolomoiskii team) "ATO operation handling was a failure" ru.tsn.ua 'Korban made statements about corruption [...] and failed ATO handling' . Previously, criticized using heavy weapons in Donbass and suggested that at most police action is appropriate.
Blaming Russia
- '(...) Lies about Ukraine', -Boris Nemtsov, Leonid Martyniuk-blames Russian Government (based on inaccurate or later reversed statements made at the official level).
Blaming the USA
- Paul Craig Roberts ’ Address to the International Conference on the European/Russian Crisis Created by Washington', June 19, 2015. ...' Wolfowitz Doctrine...The gullibility of the public has enabled Washington to establish the foundation for a new Cold War...' ' "Washington doesn’t want partners. Washington wants vassals" ' 'European governments and, of course, the lapdog UK government, are complicit in this implicit declaration of war against Russia and China. If it comes to war, Europeans will pay the ultimate price for the treason of their leaders [...] as Europe will cease to exist'.
Odessa news
26.4.2016 'Maidan' activists protesting against city mayor Trukhanov, erecting light barricades at the city administration building, were dispersed by unknown activists armed with wooden sticks and pepper spray, several protesters were injured (photos, videos in the report).
With May 2 anniversary approaching, situation remain tense. Nationalists are making threats aimed at city administration. Regional governor Saakashvilli asked Poroshenko to deploy national guards to the city for the early days in May, explaining that those were tragic events which still resonate with many people, while those responsible were not brought to justice; and that he feels extra guards are really needed. It appeared that the request was granted, but than contradicting reports appeared.
15.1.2016 Maria Gaidar became assistant head of Odessa regional administration (Saakashvilli is the head)
6.1.2016 The subsistence minimum (this is known as poverty level in the West) per odessite in 2016 is as follows: from January 1 - 1330 hryvnia per month (that is 55 USD at this time) , from May 1 - 1399 hryvnia, from December 1 - 1496 hryvnia 1 TV, Odessa.
27.8 DPR all-for all prisoners exchange list includes 63 anti-maidan activists arrested or charged after May 2 events.
19.7 Saakasvilli clashed with Filatov, Kolomoiskii ally. Clash has to do with elections in Chernigov where another Kolomoiskii ally Korban is running. Saakashvilli is said to come to support opposing candidate Berezenko, his main opponent, but gave a different reason for the visit; that ended in verbal and almost physical clash with Filatov (video), and a court case threatened by Filatov.
17.7.2015 Maria Gaidar appointed vice-governor responsible for social policy. She is a daughter of late Yegor Gaidar (a reformer, acting prime minister of Russia in the second half of 1992). Indicated that her priority will be to show residents that regional authorities care about them. tAfter showing reluctance to persistent journalist questions on who Ukraine is fighting with, eventually provided] politically correct answer telling that Russia attacked Georgia and Ukraine (on her 4th attempt).
30.5.2015 Mikheil Saakashvili appointed governor of Odessa region. Poroshenko stated that knows Saakashvilli for a long time and trusts him. Control of Odessa port which may be used for military aid, Transnistria border, and creating positive image abroad, are seen as some of the reasons behind the appointment. Port control and other economic matters placed Saakashvilli on collision course with Kolomoiskii, whose ally was a previous Odessa governor.
Photos/Videos
Debaltsevo Damage to houses, big craters. It is said in the article that sometime UAF intentionally damaged houses by a direct fire.
Uglegorsk: NAF arranged a corridor for civilians (English sub.) Donetsk children Enakievo Gorlovka Nikishino Nikishino (center) Uglegorsk
- Donetsk Airport ~ Before and After, January 2015 . 3D model-sketchlab
- Luhansk Airport photos,-Graham Phillips and Cassad.
Ukrainian Agony
December 20, 2015: German freelance journalist Mark Batalmai, who has lived in Donetsk since mid-2014 and worked embedded with the opolchenie, releases his crowdfunded full-length documentary "Ukrainian Agony" in an English-language version (German-language original).
Minsk Agreements
Agreements
- 22.7.15 Under-100 mm weapons withdrawal was agreed Poroshenko statement: ' I hope it will be the real beginning of the ceasefire'.
- 12.2.15 Two documents were agreed: on measures on implementing Minsk protocol (English language PDF here).
Resurgent Events?
Since now, December 23 2015, for the (n+1) time unconditional ceasefire is announced, although I do hope that one is the last, there is no warranty. So I'll just keep labels and dates for important but so far resurgent events here.
February 23 update: by the end of January, 2016, lots of shelling incidents are again reported daily. Once again, promises of ceasefire did not materialize.
- Unconditional Ceasefire in Donbas.
- 23.12.15 (starting 0:00, Dec 23, 2015, as announced-TASS
- (22.7.15)
- (12.2.15)
- Donetsk Airport, Donetsk suburbs shelled by Ukraine
- 13.2.16;9.2.16; 26.1.16(tank fire);25.1.16;21.1.16; 20.1.16;15.1.16; 13.1.16;31.12.15 (Staromikhailovka); 29.12; 28.12.15 (Zhabichevo); 27.12.15(Petrovskyi) ; 26.12.15(Spartak); 24.12.15 ; 13.12.15 (Dokuchaevsk) .
- (Every other day, up until now)
- Gorlovka, nearby villages shelled (Rusvesna updates-Gorlovka)
- 13.2.16;21.1.16; 11/12.1.16 (Engl).; 10.1.16 (1 DPR killed) 9.1.2016; 27.12.15; 24.12.15.
- (Similar to the above)
- Villages near Mariupol shelled by Ukraine
- 25.1.16 (artillery, from Mariupol);Kominternovo: 21.1.16;31.12.15 29.12.15 ; 24.12.15 + Basurin & OSCE came under sniper fire, 27.12
....
Updates
28.4.16 Detailed discussion of Nuland visit and Minsk progress by a Ukrainian source. Renewed push, with a deadline of having laws in place by the end of May, implementation by the end of summer is noted. IMF loan to Ukraine may be linked to Minsk implementation, as well as adoption of a packet of other required laws. However, so far Poroshenko tactics was to delay implementation hoping that time is on the side of Ukraine, and such an approach may last forever.
25.3.16 Foreign Minister Steinmeier in Moscow: "We need Russia to help resolve conflicts". Highlights insufficient progress implementing Minsk-2.
27.1.16 Constitutional amendments: Russia's position in Minsk talks:
- the vote on the Constitution of Ukraine should be tightly linked to the simultaneous adoption of the amendments to Articles 1 and 10 of the law on the special status of Donbass by giving special status of a permanent framework according to "Steinmeier formula";
- revision of the amendments to the law on the special status should be agreed in the contact group;
- A legal formula has to be found that guarantees that paragraph 18 of the transitional provisions of the Constitution will refer to the current wording of articles 2-9 of the law on the special status and to new, agreed by the contact group, wording of Articles 1 and 10;
- This formula should be fixed (закрепить (Rus) = lit. 'fix, make firm'; here 'used'/'entered') in the Constitution of Ukraine;
- it is also necessary to legislate in the Constitution of Ukraine, that the powers of those representatives elected in Donbass elections under a separate law will not be discontinued in 2017, as is envisaged in the constitutional reform for the rest of Ukraine
Ukraine Contact Group notes "good exchange of views" — OSCE official, TASS-English
11.1. 2016 Boris Gryzlov visited Kiev. Next trilateral group meeting is on 13.1.2016 in Minsk.
Normandy four agreed to extend Minsk agreements into the year of 2016, TASS, Dec. 30, 2015
24.12.2015 Kuchma fools around trying to reinterpret Minsk agreements, demanding border control and in effect DPR/LPR disarmament prior to elections. This is not what was agreed (and could not possibly be agreed the way he tries to put it now, with Novorossia advancing militarily at the time of the agreement). Dirty games now, and so not surprisingly no progress...
18.11.2015 Ukraine did not show up for a contact group meeting where a law on special elections in Donbas was to be discussed. Previously, it was reported that sides could not reach an agreement. According to Pushilin, agenda included a ban for Ukrainian political parties to participate in local elections in Donbas, mechanism of participation for temporary displaced persons, and amnesty law.
15.3 Minsk 3 ? It is rumored that part of Ukrainian leadership is seeking a compromise and another Minsk meeting. Maybe an info release merely testing waters; but the essence of compromise is said to be a special mode to local government which covers the entire territory of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions (including those controlled by Ukraine), but these areas will be led by the people agreed as Kiev and Moscow, and the other members of the Minsk process (Germany and France). It is said that a similar proposal was made a year ago after a meeting involving Kuchma, Medvedchuk, and DPR, but Poroshenko refused to consider it and started the ATO instead. Ukrainian media claim that the plan is actually coming from "representatives of Moscow".
- Kremlin 'melancholically denied' (Cassad) re-interpretations/free interpretations of Minsk TASS
12.6.15 Poroshenko expects to submit de-centralization bill to Rada by the end of parliamentary session in July
- other constitutional changes proposed by the sides: see news entry for 9.6.15 above
10.6.15 Kuchma: Russia insists on including Novorosiia representatives into tripartite liaison group, Normandy format ; but his is not acceptable to us; they are included as consultants.
17-19.03 Russia called for a UNSC closed door meeting to discuss Ukraine breaking Minsk 2 agreements. Later Lavrov criticized the US position, and indicated further diplomatic moves and planned meetings in in Normandy format
16.03 Special status law requires elections based on laws of Ukraine prior to such special status. LPR/DPR were not consulted about this (although that is required in Minsk 2 agreements). With leaders of LPR/DPR and Soviets recently elected already, another elections will be problematic. There were no local elections though, may be local elections can be arranged in a way acceptable to both sides.
14.03 Poroshenko introduced special status law for Rada consideration -TASS quoting Rada site.
13.03 Zakharchenko and Plotniskii write to Hollande and Merkel about Ukraine not fulfilling its obligations: not following schedule on heavy weapons withdrawal; (most importantly) Rada has not started discussing special status for Donetsk, Lugansk regions--that work is supposed to finish by 14 March; continued economic blockade.
27.02 UNSC meeting on Ukraine started with OSCE report, highlighting state of affairs and challenges OSCE faces. Overall partial calming of warfare in the past several days noted. Neither side was willing to provide details of heavy weapons they posses, or their exact destination after proposed withdrawal. Technology (e.g. satellite), experts, and procedures need to be upgraded for OSCE to fulfill its required mission (video of OSCE presentation in Russian translation is here, other languages not found at this time)
- abc news report dailystar SBS
- Churkin gives a brief account of the UNSC closed door meeting TASS-English
24.02 FM meeting in Normandy format ended in Paris; heavy weapons withdrawal, verification, Debaltsevo were discussed, nothing new signed. Germany has concerns with implementation.
19.02 Poroshenko has held a phone conversation in the Normandy format, told them "not to pretend that the events in Debaltseve meet the Minsk agreements". He has also urged to elaborate clear guarantees for the possible attempts of violating the given agreements in the future. (Debaltsevo situation was known in Minsk--indeed he should not be pretending).
18.02 Poroshenko plans to ask for UN peacekeepers
17.02 UN SC unanimously approved a resolution supporting Minsk agreements. (Yet, testy rhetoric noted by Churkin)
14.02 Russia introduced UN SC resolution approving Minsk agreements of February 12. So far, English speaking world, UK and USA, did not clearly expressed their positions, and it may give an indication. So far, it was along the lines that Russia has to deliver, and may be further sanctioned otherwise, while Ukraine has nothing to deliver, and will not be sanctioned for failures. Russian officials called for a change of such approach, taking a position that the conflict is internally Ukrainian and Russia is not a participant (example). While Russian media are making presentations indicating that it is the USA who is a participant, in Kiev overlord capacity (example).
12.02 Two documents were agreed:
- on measures on implementing Minsk protocol (English language PDF here). Ceasefire starting on February 15; separation of heavy weapons (from actual line for Ukraine, and from September 19 line for Novorossia; this enlarges separation), starting in 2 days from ceasefire, finishing in 14 days. All for all prisoners exchange, to finish in 5 days from separation begins. Time limits are given for all major steps. Return of border control to Ukraine is agreed to occur after local elections and constitutional reform (taking interests of breakaway regions into account)
- declaration of support of Ukrainian peace settlement. This includes support and control of implementation.
10.02 Contact Group agrees (a plan of) heavy troops withdrawal, ceasefire regime -TASS
- It may be the case that sides do not make binding obligations, but approve and support listed measures (language is a bit vague, if something is broken later, or sides do not agree whether later vague steps actually occurred, not clear exactly what will follow)
Plotniskii, Zakharchenko press statement (English subs)
Still no direct contact between official Kiev and Novorossia. -(Mentioned by Putin in his press statement as one of the reasons negotiations took so long, had to go back and forth with Trilateral Group).
08.02 After telephone conference today, it is said that Normandy four to meet in Minsk on 11.02 if some positions will be resolved prior to that. Details of positions not explained. (Lukashenko talked to both Putin and Poroshenko about this and is happy and keen for them to come to Minsk)
06.02 Hollande-Merkel-Putin talks are finished in Moscow, it is said that a Normandy format document is being prepared based on meetings in Kiev and Moscow. Phone conference call in Normandy format expected on Sunday. (--Putin spokesman Peskov, TASS).) Putin off to Sochi, meets Lukashenko and rests; Hollande and Merkel also departing Moscow.
Plotniskii and Zakharchenko press conference -explains Republics position why it is not their fault that latest Minsk meeting did not succeed (English subs).
Victor Baloga, Governor of trans-Carpathian region of Ukraine, proposes a referendum on whether to continue war or separate from the rebel regions. Also, Gennady Korban, assistant Governor, Dnepropetrovsk, proposes to choose between war and an agreement.
Maps
Dragon-First maps; Kot Ivanov .
Casualties
Total
8.7.15 Zakharchenko, at a a joint LPR/DPR press conference: "In 2015, 1212 people were killed, including 25 children under the age of 18 years ". During the conflict in 2014, 3864 DPR peeople died , including 522 women and 65 children. "That is more than 5000 of our people were killed just because they are residents of Donbass." (unclear is this civilian deaths or total deaths--probably total). More than 6,200 people, including women, children and the elderly were seriously injured and became disabled for life were . More than two thousand DPR inhabitants are missing.
14.8.15 From the start of hostilities, 5061 people were killed, among them 4295 men and 766 women, according to the Office of the Commissioner for Human Rights in DPR; and according to the Center for Emergency Medical Aid, 6100 were wounded Dan-news, 14.8.15. The figure is close to the one given by Zakharchenko in July (he had a higher number of 5076, so a small discrepancy here)
Children killed
3.12.15 DPR ombudsman: during the conflict, almost 80 children were killed in Donbass, Rossiiskaia Gazeta, 3.12.2015. According to DPR ombudsman Yana Chepikova, uring the hostilities, 78 children were killed in DPR, 313 were injured, 35 of them seriously injured. In LPR, 30 children were killed according to data available.
Military Casualties
19.02 Zakharchenko: Ukrainian losses in Debaltsevo cauldron may be up to 3 -3.5 thousand killed. There are plans to release or exchange those taken prisoners.
16.02 UAF: estimated 60 killed; NAF 2 killed, 21 wounded (source).
14.02 for the day and up to the ceasefire started: UAF lost 111 killed, NAF lost 8 killed, 28 wounded -Basurn
13.02 up to 100 UAF killed Basurin, DPR
12.02 Day + night, UAF lost 169 killed (links in the news section)
08.02 LPR commander Maxim Martakov, a military policeman, and 6 fighters were killed under Chernukhino. They provided corridor for civilians. 11 UAF soldiers were killed, 29 wounded (Basurin)
04.02.15 UAF losses: 21 killed
03.02.15 UAF losses estimated at 79 killed.
02.02.15 UAF losses estimated at 130 killed.
- Totals. In 29 days, up to ceasefire starting, 2760 UAF killed, 60 taken prisoners -Basurn
- In 22 days since fighting restarted, 2056 UAF killed (Basurin)
- 17 Jan.-3 Feb. UAF losses estimated at 1738 killed, 52 taken prisoners (Basurin, DPR).
Civilian Casualties
According to the Head of the DNI, the year the war seriously injured for life became disabled more than 6,200 people, including women, children and the elderly. More than two thousand inhabitants DNI missing. 08.02 Many instances of shelling of Donetsk with MLRS (including Uragans), and artillery. One very powerful explosion (videos available) was reported as well. Later it was said that a chemical plant producing paints and dry mixes in Donetsk was hit by a heavy artillery shell (DPR did not confirm that it was ammunition plant); preliminary information is that nobody was killed in that explosion.
07.02 After ceasefire ended on 6.02, Ukraine attempted an attack on the whole front line; the attack was repelled. 6 civilians were killed, 15 wounded in Donetsk due to shelling by Ukraine from the North-West.
05.02. Shelling by Ukraine had 7 civilians killed, 44 wounded, most of them in Donetsk. Schools, hospitals, kindergartens hit. Ukraine is using Smerch MLRS; range is 80 km; a full salvo covers an area of 8 football fields.
04.02 Donetsk hospital shelled, 5 killed, 5 wounded. Civilian objects destroyed: Donetsk 17, Makeevka 28, Gorlovka 2
02.02.15 16 killed, 34 wounded in DPR and LPR combined. Civilian areas hit by MLRS, Makeevka and Donetsk, (13), (14) on opolchenie map, 02.02.2015
22.01 Donetsk bus shelled at least 8 killed, 13 injured
- Residents react abusively to UAF 'cyborg' officer captured earlier at the Airport and brought to the scene
13.01 Volnovakha bus: 12 killed, 18 wounded (talk). 24.01 Mariupol market shelling: 30 killed, 83 injured (talk) .
- Totals. Latest official UN figure: 224 civilians killed and 545 wounded in the three weeks leading up to 1 February. According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), the overall death toll now exceeds 5,358 people, with another 12,235 wounded since mid-April last year (Deaths here are likely certified, and mostly civilian).
Gorlovka
In 6 months ending July 2015, 164 civilians were killed, including 16 children; 501 were wounded, including 42 are children DAN news, quoting city administration data,31 July 2015.
UNHCHR
- Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, "Accountability for killings in Ukraine from January 2014 to May 2016" -report. Blames both sides, but Western media mostly highlightes alleged crimes by rebels. While large number of civilian shelling victims are reported as if it is not known who is predominantly to blame. Significant number of other cases are likely not fully investigated or included in the report.
- "Ukraine crisis: Impunity 'pervasive' in east, says UN" , BBC, 14 July 2016 (highlights one case in rebel controlled Luhansk, where some Cossacks were accused of a crime)
Military Hardware Lost
23.02 Zakharchenko: 'Poroshenko is our main ally'. In 5 days at Debaltsevo, 170 UAF tanks were captured or destroyed; most of them can be repaired. Also, 50 artillery pieces; they did not even count mortars. Ammunition, still move it out by railroad wagon-loads.
19.02 In Debaltsevo, opolchenie captured 265 pieces of UAF military equipment. 28 tanks, 63 BMP/BTR, 145 vehicles, 16 anti-aircraft guns, 13 artillery and mortar pieces were found in good condition and have been adopted by the DPR army. Also captured: about 1000 firearms, 39 ammunition storages and 2 railroad card with ammunition -Basurin
14.02 4 Grads launchers and ammunition seized by NAF near Debaltsevo -Basurn
03.02.15 Two UAF SU 25 were shot down (near Commisarovka and Chernukhino; one pilot bailed out). Also a drone shot down near Irvino
02-03.02.15 UAF lost 5 tanks, 1 BMP, 11 artillery pieces, one plane (and/or one Tochka U)
- Totals: for 29 days, up to ceasefire: UAF lost 3 airplanes, 1 helicopter, 205 tanks, 182 BMP, BTR, MTLB, 208 field artillery guns, 124 vehicles -Basurn
- for 22 days since fighting restarted: UAF lost 3 planes, 1 helicopter, 168 tanks, 133 BMP/BTR, 124 artillery pieces, 94 vehicles
- 17 Jan.-3 Feb. UAF lost 3 planes, 1 helicopter, 146 tanks, 114 BMP/BTR, 91 artillery pieces, 64 vehicles
Banned Weapons Use
There were numerous reports on phosphorus bomb use, with consistent photo and video footage, witness reports, burns consistent with such weapons use, etc. Many articles on Rusvesna on this topic. One of them here, for example, contain a photo of an explosion, and video, allegedly of nationalist battalion fighters, based on colors/regalia, discussing and accepting that such munitions were used by Ukraine (dated 13.02.2015 ). There were numerous other such incidents. The latest phosphorous munition report is by DoNI press, [1], translated at Fort Russ, Apr. 24, 2016, from Zaitsevo.
02.02.15 Report on phosphorous ammunition used against civilians by Ukraine-burns can be seen.
More photos, sky alight in Marinka (Donetsk suburb), Aug. 1, 2014
Cluster munitions
04.02.15 UAF shelled Telmanovo from Mirnoe by Smerch MLRS, civilian houses destroyed
03.02.15 Luhansk and Donetsk: Smerch, heavy MLSRS with cluster munitions used by Ukraine.
28.01.15 OSCE confirms (03.02.15 report) that cluster Smerch munitions were used against Artemivskyi district of Luhansk, shelling was from NNW. (Shelling done by Ukraine).
Economy
- Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten: "The IMF has pumped billions in recent months into the Ukrainian financial system to stabilize the country's banks. Approximately $ 1.8 billion were going to the largest financial institution Private Bank, which is controlled by the oligarch Igor Kolomoiski. But instead of investing the money into the Ukrainian economy, Kolomoiski has managed to channel the emergency loans through a network of offshore companies abroad". [1] Ukrainian anti-corruption project "Our Money" ('Наші гроші' (ukr) = "Nashi Groshi") is quoted as offering an explanation of the scheme, involving a 'purchase' of foreign goods which were never delivered, using a credit from Private Bank, and the payment deposited to accounts in off-shore branches of the Privat Bank. [2]
- Ukrainian $18 bln debt (held in bonds) will receive a 20% 'haircut'. However, between 2021 and 2040 investors will receive up to 40 per cent of the value of Ukraine’s annual economic growth above 4 per cent, although total payments will be capped at 1 per cent for the first four years. [3] [4] Ukrainian GDP is 177.4 billion USD (2013) -by google search. It went down quite a lot in 2014; but the IMF projection is 134 bln USD in 2020. One percent of that in growth is 1.3 bln; such amount may be paid to investors for 20 years bringing 26 bln USD. Write-off amount is about 3.6 bln USD. This wonderful deal is called a 'win-win' by Ukrainian finance minister and the Guardian [5]. Franklin Templeton is one of the largest investors involved. Russia has 3 bln USD in Ukrainian debt and is not participating in the deal.(Vasili Muravitskii/Cassad brought up this matter).
Sources
News Sources
- Opolchenie version of events. Rusvesna-news (rusvesna.su, Russian) , (rusvesna.su, English) , (rusnext.ru, Russian).
- Official Donetsk People Republic (DPR) news dan-news.info.
- Oplot TV-Donetsk Live now , youtube channel vk Oplot TV
- First Republican Channel-DPR youtube vk ('official channel of DPR', created in April 2014, and unofficially broadcasting some material online; possibly re-broadcasting Russia 24 in their vacant slots.
- Lugansk People Republic (LPR) news: LPR Sovet (legislature) site, news, luganskallnews.ru, news, lug-info.com
- Ukrainian version of events: TSN (Ukraine)(Ukrainian or Russian) , Channel 5 -Ukraine
- OSCE SMM-Ukraine
- TASS Chronicle-link to daily updates, (Russian) , TASS - Ukraine (English) (easiest to search).
- Daily Press Briefings - US Department of State
English-language sources
- DONI, based in Donetsk
- TASS (Engl)
- OSCE SMM
Documentaries
- "Les masques de la revolution", Russian dubbed over French version, Feb. 1, 2016
- 'Times of Donbass' (Italian/Russian), Jan 12, 2016
Opinion Polls
- IRI poll, January 2016
- Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) , July 2015
- 13,3% would vote for the party "Block of Petro Poroshenko"
- 12,8% - for the All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland" (Yulia Timosenko)
- 6,8% - for the party "Union Samopomich" (Sadovyi)
- 5,8% - for the Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko,
- 4,1% - for the party "Opposition block" (Boyko) --formerly 'Party of Regions'-Yanukovich
- 3,1% - for the party "Civil position"
- 3,0% - for the party "Right Sector"
- ----
- 3,2% - have crossed all the parties /spoiled bulletin
- 14,3% - chose not to vote,
- 23,5% - hard to choose,
- 2,6% - refusal
- Source: Socio-Political Situation In Ukraine: July 2015. Report also have opinions on various peace/Russia issues, by region (English).
- In DPR/LPR, polling is done by Center for Sociological Study 'Special Status' (Центр социологических исследований «Особый статус» -russ.) Here is their opening presentation. Poll results are published by news sources.
- DPR poll conducted in the beginning of August in 19 DPR towns, 5900 people took part, 5% statistical error
- 43 % for DPR to join the Russian Federation (33.8% 3 months ago)
- 17 % for DPR to be independent ('sovereign') (42.8 % 3 months ago)
- 18 % for the 'creation of a joint state' (unclear what that would be exactly- some sort of autonomy aligned with Russia)
- 11 % ('not more than') for DPR as a part of Ukraine. 14.9 % see some future with Ukraine following Minsk agreements (18.8 % 3 months ago)
Abbreviations Used
DPR: Donetsk People Republic (prime minister: Alexander Zakharchenko)
LPR: Lugansk People Republic (head: Igor Plotniskii)
JCCC Joint Center for Control and Co-ordination, consists of Ukrainian and Russian military officers,- tries to mediate to have ceasefire implemented.
MLRS: Multiple Launch Rocket System, Grad/Uragan/Smerch. Uragan or Smerch typically have cluster munitions
UAF (=AFU): Ukrainian Armed Forces
NAF (=AFN): Opolchenie, Novorossia Armed Forces
OSCE: Organization for Security and Co‑operation in Europe
RSG: recon and subversion group
SMM: Special Monitoring Mission-OSCE
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- ↑ Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten, "Ukrainischer Oligarch bereichert sich an IWF-Krediten", 27.08.15
- ↑ RT (Russian), "DWN: Коломойский «оприходовал» транш МВФ и скрылся в Америке", 28.08.2015
- ↑ Financial Times, "Ukraine secures debt deal for war-ravaged economy", 27.8.2015
- ↑ Finance Ministry of Ukraine, Ukraine and the Ad Hoc Creditors' Committee agree on Indicative Heads of Terms for restructuring of sovereign and sovereign guaranteed Eurobonds, 27.8.2015
- ↑ The Guardian, Ukraine agrees 'win-win' debt restructuring deal, 27.8.2015