25 Dec. Basurin: intelligence reports on arrival and unloading at Krasnogorovka railway station railcars filled with blue barrels with a potent chemical poisonous substance, chemical provocation feared (Rus.)(robo-Eng). OSCE: six BMP-1 at Krasnogorovka, SMM cameras not operational, repair work at Krasnogorovka gas distribution station. Other repairs nearby. Normally blue color in Russia, Ukraine is for oxygen, chlorine/phosgene are dirty-greenish; but in the report unloading done by military in protective suits. Updates: (1) Red Cross to arrive to Zaitsevo, gov-held; but DPR fears provocations against Red Cross. (2) Donetsk water filtering station lost power, weather blamed. (3) Russia extends economic sanctions on Ukraine
17 Dec. Shelling, quest for provocations continues. DPR MoD updates, Rus. 1, 2, robo-Eng 1, 2. Basurin: Ukrainian propaganda even named the exact start date of our offensive - Dec. 24-25, which is not surprising. Poroshenko's plans are absolutely transparent. He needs a reason to extend the martial law ending on Dec. 26 in Ukraine. And he is actively looking for it. It is possible that on Dec. 24-25, UAF themselves will attempt to attack.
- Updates. (1) Turchinov to BBC: we are preparing a new passage through the Kerch Strait, and invite OSCE and NATO observers. (2) Russian sources: OSCE restricted report, Dec 6: a small military group arrived to the port of Mariupol, to stay till the end of Dec, to meet several Ukr. Navy ships, to arrive from Odessa Dec. 24 (not in regular OSCE report) (3)MGB DPR: Ukraine has munitions made to look like DPR's "Snezhinka" MLRS; chemical provocation feared, bad foreign visitors of White Helmets ilk alleged. (4)22 Dec, Russian Embassy on UK warship visit to Odessa
15 Dec. Unification congress in Kiev.
10 Dec. Urgent, passionate, and very detailed new appeal by Basurin telling that there is Ukrainian plan of a provocation followed by an attack, aimed to be completed by scheduled for Dec 15 unification meeting of breakaway Ukrainian churches. Requires immediate and sustained attention. (Rus), (robo-eng), (humans' Eng.). Noted: text is pronounced in strong/determined/passionate/straight in the eye manner, unlike regular conferences.
- Updates. 1.DPR MoD: UAF mined several roads, possibly preparing a provocation targeting public transport. Several carts with chemical protective kits delivered to UAF-guarded location.
- 2.SBU accused the governor of the main Kiev-Pechersk Lavra of the preparation of 'pro-Russian provocations', interrogated him, prior to the approaching 'unification gathering' (Rus)/ (robo-Eng), (SBU-Ukr).
- (3) 00:10 14 Dec, UAF fired
520 mortar shells + AGS, RPG and large caliber machine guns on Shirokino and Sakhanka, 29 AGS shots a day earlier on Gnutovo.
- (4) Basurin: UAF formed first echelon for an offensive operation, stretching 50 km Vinogradnoe (Mariupol) to Staroignativka (Volnovkha). DPR forces are on high alert.
7 Dec. Regular DPR MOD update provides a detailed account of their available evidence of Ukrainian forces preparations for a provocation or warfare. We discuss similar material on talk page. While we cannot certify provided information, this release requires immediate attention and study. Full robo-translation +video linked.
6 Dec. Ukrainian Rada voted to terminate treaty of friendship with Russia (277 for, 20 against, 34 not voted, video), effective Apr.1, 2019, after a draft resolution was introduced by Poroshenko. The treaty included respect of territorial integrity, in particular.
5 Dec. Putin on reasons why he presently does not want to discuss recent crisis with Poroshenko: does not want to take part in his reelection campaign; Poroshenko 'skillfully creates crisis, then blames Russia, then demonstrates how he solves the crisis, pretending it's not him to blame' (video).
Presidential front-runner Yulia Timoshenko is in USA to present herself for photographing at the Atlantic Council meeting and with Kurt Volker (in addition to unworkable video presentations featuring herself over dramatic musical background).
3 Dec. Volunteer: Ukrainian tank company arrived to the port of Mariupol (report and photo).
2 Dec. DPR forces started intensive training to repel large scale attack by UAF
1 Dec. Basurin/DPR: according to DPR intelligence, UAF plans a large scale attack in December, evidenced by three elite brigades (79 airborne assault, 36 Marine and 128 mountain assault) deployed in Mariupol direction.
Bezsonov/DPR: Kiev deployed near Donetsk a paratroopers battalion trained in city warfare, + military equipment and ammunition.
Poroshenko: troops training and redeplyment will be conducted, in martial law regions, reservists and territorial defense will be called up for training, defense industry enterprises are switching to a special regime of operation -Ukrinform. Ukrainian MoD: starting from December 3, a series of large-scale events with reservists and soldiers will begin (Ukr)(Robo-Eng).
Noted: I rate chances of a major provocation or renewed fighting from now until the date of Ukrainian presidential elections as high. Everything needs to be done to prevent it. Otherwise, things may go into a negative spiral with dire global consequences and no good ways out. --Resup (talk) 15:13, 1 December 2018 (UTC)