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December 11, 2015: Oleg Barna, a Poroshenko block deputy, presents flowers to Prime Minister Yatseniuk (click on the picture for the linked video)
American and Canadian instructors prepare Ukrainian soldiers , Petr Sagaidachnyi center, Apr. 4, 2016, Ukraine. Also on this video from Lviv

Recent updates

News

3 Feb. US to send Ukraine longer-range bombs

More from Dmitry Medvedev, see 19 Jan. entries. ...Our answer can be anything..., etc.

24 Jan. In Dec. 2016, 10 Leopard 2A4 tanks were destroyed by IS at Al Bab, Syria.... 1, 2.

Col. Doug Macgregor interview (it's interesting how well retired colonels understand that their side going to war is not such a great idea...).

19 Jan. Western powers discuss transfer of Western heavy weaponry, including main battle tanks, to Ukraine. This, in addition to better intelligence, communication, integration, precision may give Ukraine enough advantage for successful tactical or strategic offenses against Russian forces.

Dmitry Medvedev: the loss by a nuclear power in a conventional war can provoke the outbreak of a nuclear war. The nuclear powers did not lose major conflicts on which their fate depends. (Medvedev's public persona 'fills the void' created after the death of Zhirinovsky; yet this particular statement may well be true and shall not be dismissed. Medvedev is also a deputy chairman of the Russian security council and a former Russian president and PM, and may be in the running for another top leadership position).

US considers sending launched from the ground by rockets/boosters small diameter precision aviation bombs, with a range of 100 miles (+) . That may reach Crimea, Russia border regions.

Situation in Soledar at the end of January 10, 2023

10 Jan. Russian PMC/'Wagner' forces are said to be in control of central Soledar, after surrounding the city and cutting the supplies. Soledar (salt city) is near a flashpoint of Artemovks/Bakhmut, with wide, deep and very long salt mines tunnels (1, 2).

It is said that Ukrainian forces took positions on the western outskirts, near several salt minepits. The main remaining Ukrainian defense region in the Donbass is considered to be Slavyansk-Kramatorsk heavily fortified area, to the north-west.

7 Jan. Ukrainian forces attempted an attack shortly after orthodox nativity holiday on frozen grounds near Chervonopopovka/Kremennaia. It is said that the attack was discovered in time and repelled.

1 Jan. RU MoD: 63 recently drafted Russian soldiers are killed by Ukrainian US-made-HIMARS strike on their temporary quarters in Makeevka, near Donetsk (1, 2). (RU MoD also reports on successful strikes on Ukrainian positions, while independents heavily criticize inadequate arrangements in Makeevka and possibly elsewhere). Russian forces subsequently attempted to retaliate for the attack (1, 2).

2022

27 Dec. Western media portray Lavrov's comments as an ultimatum. (But they appear to be more of the same).

22 Dec. Dmitriy Rogozin and DPR prime minister Vitaliy Hotsenko are wounded, two more people are killed, by Ukrainian precise artillery strike, using Western artillery, on a Donetsk hotel where Rogozin was staying. It is said that 3 cluster munition shells were fired using French "Caesar" 155 mm howitzer 1, 2.

Tactics chosen by Russian forces ("Surovikin defense line") resulted in effectively a stalemate. Ukraine continues regular artillery shelling of residential areas of Donetsk, causing civilian casualties and destruction, and continues attempts to attack targets in Russia, including airbases deep in the Russian territory.

President Zelensky greeted by US chief of protocol Rufus Gifford after landing in the United States

21 Dec. Zelensky visits the US Congress to ask for more weapons and more money. Soon after, the US Congress approved the budget which included $45 bln to Ukraine.

16 Dec. Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and military targets are reported. Dneproges was hit. US Global Hawk arrived late.

11 people are killed in Lantratovka, LPR by Ukrainian shelling, said to be by HIMARS, 20 were wounded, 20 more unaccounted for.

Front lines remain largely static, with continued artillery duels, drones, RSG, and some slow and local Russian advances against heavily fortified Ukrainian positions in Donbass, with quite heavy casualties reported (with most of the reports are about Ukrainian battlefield casualties).

15 Dec. Ukraine fired 40 "Grad" rockets on residential central Donetsk, the heaviest shelling since 2014. At least 13 civilians were killed in DPR this week, 47 were wounded. Persistent Ukrainian "Grad" shelling from Tonenkoe continued on 16 Dec.

6 Dec. Ukraine shelled again residential area in the center of Donetsk. At least 10 «Grad» rockets landed in the «Donbass Arena» area, the indoor market and the business center «Centavr plaza». 6 civilians are said to be killed; the number of wounded is being clarified. Member of the People's Council of the DPR Maria Pirogova was killed by the shelling. Judge of the DPR Military Court Viktor Nikolaevich Isaev was killed by Ukrainian shelling a day earlier. Intentionally shelling residential areas and killing civilians is a war crime. This continues for 9 years.

A drone attacked the airfield in Kursk. An oil storage tank caught fire. There are no casualties, firemen are extinguishing the fire. The airport presently does not accept civil flights

5 Dec. Explosions at 2 Russian military airfields, Diagilevo in Ryazan and Engels strategic airbase, Saratov, Russia. It was said initially that a fuel tanker truck exploded at Ryazan airbase (this detail was omitted in later reports, but seen on photo, next to a damaged plane); and it was said unofficially (Cassad) a drone attack at Engels airbase damaged 2 planes. This is a day after Ukraine announced second stage of trials of its own '1000 km, 75 kg payload drone', and as Latvia called for attacks on Russian airfields.

It was later said that Soviet-made Ukrainian UAV jets (TU 141/TU 143) have attacked both airfields; that Russian air defense "intercepted" UAVs but, as a result of them coming down and exploding, "hull skin of two aircraft was slightly damaged." Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian targets were reported later in the day.

Diagilevo airbase satellite photos, visible damage to the tail and nozzle of one Tu-22M3 bomber plane which was refueling 1, 2. Engels airbase satellite photos.

Banksy mural in Gostomel

2 Dec. Thieves from Kiev steal Banksy mural in Hostamel, a "symbol of Ukrainian victory".

29 Nov. It appears that Zelenskaya recycled in the British parliament discredited at home tales about rapes, without independent verification, and while crimes by her side are ignored, for many years. (Isolated incidents could occur, any side, but on the Russian side, perpetrators will be stopped or punished. That for example was made very explicit in widely circulating PMC recuitment video, with very severe punishment described. Here it is used intentionally to dehumanize the opponent and in the end of the day receive more weapons and more aid).

20 Nov. Map of Ukrainian shelling of Zaporozhk. power station, today. It is of serious concern as it shows hits on radioactive waste handling facility building roof, and near the reactors. There are also videos. It is said that by RU MoD that radiation is not released, still this is of serious concern and a disaster waiting to happen.

"12 missiles were fired. It is known that 6 hit the pool of the reactor cooling fountain, 2 - in the dry storage of nuclear waste. It is still impossible to determine the consequences of the shelling - the danger of repeated attacks remains," said Karchaa /RIAN/, Advisor to the General Director of Rosenergoatom (also here).

Total direct Western aid to Ukraine, Jan 24 to Oct 3, is €89.34bn, including 52.31 from USA, 11.74 EU, 6.65 UK. Recent austerity measures in UK concern a projected shortfall from 'fiscal targets' of £55bn. Price increases causing austerity are contributed to by the conflict (in addition to post-pandemic inflation).

Presently, the White House asks Congress for $37.7B in new Ukraine aid, while the budget for the current finance year is still not approved.

18 Nov. Videos appeared showing 10 Russian soldiers surrendering and then executed, at the same location. Apparently one man opened fire (still photo here), while others surrendered and were placed face down on the ground, unarmed. Executing prisoners clearly violates Geneva conventions. UN representative called for an investigation.

12 Nov. There could be slight softening (1 , 2) in economic/trade wars, but otherwise no signs of progress in diplomacy (apart from posturing).

10 Nov. List of countries abstaining (51) or voting against (4) the UN resolution on combating glorification of Nazism is strongly correlated with the list of countries that are supporting militarily and training Ukrainian soldiers to fight Russia.

9 Nov. After civilians evacuation, long speculation, many hints, and lastly some bridges destroyed, Russia announced 'a hard decision' of withdrawal of forces in Kherson from the Dnepr river right bank, to have defense lines along the river. Supplying forces on the right bank has been a concern. Bridge to the right bank was essentially destroyed. Fears were expressed that ferries, when river will be covered by ice, too thin to drive on, would not operate, under Ukrainian fire. However due to climate changed, Dnepr in the Kherson region may not become covered by ice sufficiently to prevent crossing by water.

Another reason is possibility for Ukraine to flood the area, with some non-catastrophic hits on the dam already. Flooding may be quite broad (10-15 km), affecting mostly left bank, and reseeding in estimated 10 days or so.


Also, this is happening in the background of Russia-US contacts on Ukraine, apparent Russia's desire to achieve an acceptable diplomatic solution, and recent, rather unrealistic, Ukrainian statements on peace. It is conceivable that some low visibility diplomacy is happening, with Dnepr a nature-made separation line to consider. Those developments are not in line with expectations of patriotic folks, who view this as a very sad day, and raise questions about goals of SMO and whether they are achievable. Yet, domestic situation in Russia, and at the top, + the realities on the ground could be prevailing considerations. (It is noted that peace attempts have failed after Russian forces withdrew from areas near Kiev).

Russian independent patriotic commenters (and Oleg Tsarev) opposed to/ crtisised the withdrawal.

29 Oct. Russia claims UK behind Nord Stream explosion - rte.ie, based on RU MoD allegations, following Ukrainian aerial and sea drones attack on Sevastopol. (Noted, UK MoD denied the claim).

28 Oct. DPR casualties this year: 3539 military, 1014 civilian killed, 14989 military, 3265 civilian injured.

21 Oct. Cartoon about Svidomyi piglets' appeared, "what Europe supports must remain in Europe". (Created by a Russian author; attributed to Israeli Channel 7, but attribution is not supported; logo shown is Hebrew-language antifascist/pro-Russian Telegram channel INN).

20 Oct. Russian TV speculates, that NATO and Ukraine are preparing a false-flag nuclear attack.

19 Oct. Pranksters Vovan and Lexus interview with Sergey Pashinsky, Ukrainian weapons baron since Maidan days, presently the head of Ukr. Association of Defense Enterprises. Shows tight link with the US/NATO, + less specific Ukrainian projects with parts (+ electronic warfare and other assistance) sought from the West 1, 2, 3.

18 Oct. Civlians evacuation announced in Kherson. Major fighting, destruction of Kahovskaya dam by Ukraine is feared.

17 Oct. Kherson. Russian forces repelled 12 Ukrainian attacks, with superior Ukrainian troop numbers. Advancing Ukrainian tanks and armored vehicles were destroyed.

16-17 Oct. Report: "On the night of Oct. 16-17, the Ukrainian forces attacked the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant using NATO artillery. HIMARS GMLRS were fired at the critical infrastructure of the nuclear power plant and the city of Energodar. Complex of technical and administrative buildings of the station, as well as a thermal power plant and the Energomash plant came under fire. Shelling is carried out from the right bank of the Dnieper. Critical damage has been already sustained by equipment in several workshops of the nuclear power plant. According to the local administration, the strikes are targeted and corrected from the UAV".

10 Oct. Russia launched massive missile strikes from the air, sea, and land against Ukrainian energy, military command, and communications facilities. @7.04 BBC correspondent ducks as Kyiv blast heard.

According to Ukr PM, 11 infrastructure targets in 8 regions were hit. Unintended hits may be to do with antiaircraft activity, including antiaircraft missiles themselves, fired over residential areas. (It appears that in several instances Ukrainians showed off antiaircraft "Buk" preformed fragmentation elements, claiming that those are from Russian missiles 1, 2, 3-4. There are videos showing building striken with missilies with engine working, and fired from nearby and landing in residential area -also showing working engine contrail )

Russia tried to avoid this, but Ukraine and its backers did not. Those facilities were jointly built in the Soviet era.

1941: The last Jew in Vinnitsa. For the 2022 remake, see video

9 Oct. Alexander Kots: "Ukrainian neo-Nazi Zhorin from "Azov" * showed footage of the massacre of the civilian population of Kupyansk". The militant first wrote that it was Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region, "Civilian population. There will be retribution!" After a wave of criticism, he added that the video was allegedly from the phone of a certain "occupier".

8 Oct. An explosion with a truck on the Crimean Bridge partly destroyed the bridge. Three spans on the westward leading road bridge have collapsed (photo 1, 2; videos 1, 2) The explosion also caused seven cars of tanker train to catch fire. The eastward leading road bridge is intact (is this seeking for the last red line? Is this a prelude to a major Ukrainian attack in the south?)

There is little doubt, and partial confirmation by Ukrainian and Western sources that Ukraine is behind. Some Russian sources accuse British SAS of involvement, and suspect Western assistance or backing in general. Explosion was well-timed, with a fuel train stuck on the tracks right there. Nothing looked suspicious in the truck as it was briefly inspected. Believed to be Russian driver (with some Tatar roots} was probably unaware, having received an internet order to deliver fertilizers (in another report, a truckload of film). His relative owned the truck, but said it was sold and not re-registered. No connection to nationalist causes was implicated. Delivery scheme of the film claimed by Kots/KP

There was a small water wave towards/under the bridge, seconds before explosion. It is unclear whether it's relevant (waves at sea happen). Yet it's aiding alternative theories, some featuring an undersea drone -some discovered on 21 Sept -- (and promoted by BBC). There is quite intensive charring on top of the car bridge, which disfavors under-bridge theories; yet the blow appears to go somewhat sideways, and enveloping the structures.

The Crimean authorities have announced that they are preparing to launch a ferry across the Kerch Strait". By the evening, the bridge was reopened for train and limited car traffic.

7 Oct. Ukrainian fire hit a civilian bus in Kherson region, at least 5 killed and five wounded. It is said that it happened when 4 HIMARS missiles were fired on Darievskii bridge (photos, video).

Jeffrey Sachs comments on NATO expansion, war in Ukraine, and JFK during 1962 Cuban missile crisis

1 Oct. Ru MoD: Russian forces "withdrawn from Krasnyi Liman, because of the threat of being surrounded, and to take more advantageous positions".

Reports surfaced in the western media blaming Russian forces for an attack on a civilian convoy days earlier. A civilian convoy was attacked whilst crossing into no mans land from Kupiansk in Kharkov region heading towards Svatovo in LPR territory. More than twenty people fleeing from Ukrainian held Kupiansk are thought to have died.

30 Sep. Treaties with 4 regions joining Russia are signed. Putin speech.

At least 30 civilians die when a convoy waiting to enter Russian-held Zaporozhsky region is hit by unknown artillery or missiles.

Meanwhile, situation on the front lines remains difficult. Krasnyi Liman is operationally surrounded, with heavy battles fought. Russian forces withdrew from Novoselovo, Drobyshevo, Iampol. Yet it is possible that a major strike is to occur elsewhere, with Ukrainian forces having few times more troops and unlimited supply of Western weapons. In recent week, Russian forces used aviation, however Ukrainian antiaircraft systems are not supressed. At least one plane, SU-30, is apparently lost, with more claimed by Ukrainians.

27 Sep. According to official results, 4,791,246 people voted for joining Russia in the referenda in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and in the Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics. That is over half the total pre-war population of the four former Ukrainian oblasts.

Radek Sikorski thanks USA for blowing up Nord Stream 1 and 2

26 Sep. The Nord Stream pipelines from Russia to Germany were destroyed in a military attack.

24 Sep. Personnel changes have taken place in the RU MoD.

23 Sep. Referendums started.

21 Sep. Putin: partial mobilization. Warning on weapons. (Eng.)

20 Sep. There have been deadly Ukrainian shelling of targets in Donbass, Kherson, and Russia, with many civilians killed (at least 13 civilians killed in Donetsk yesterday). In recent days, pro-Russian regions announced plans of referendums on joining Russia. This appears to have Russian leadership support. Changes were announced to the Russia;s criminal code, apparently to tighten laws during war (or SMO) time. Today, it's said that Putin address is expected, which may have to do with referendums or change of military operation, or both (unofficial, timing unclear)

19 Sep. Bus stop shelling in Donetsk, at least 13 civilians killed, including two children.

17 Sep. Leaked document on Ukrainian attempts to destabilize Russia is published by RT.

16 Sep. LPR prosecutor general and his female deputy were killed by an explosion in their offices in Lugansk. At least five HIMARS missiles hit central Kherson, near the regional administration building; people were killed and injured. Deputy mayor of Berdiansk and his wife who was in charge of the referendum on joining Russia have been killed.

There has been numerous reports that Ukraine is trying to manufacture Bucha-style press campaign after their troops entered Izium (including people detained by Ukraine in captured area on on minor pretexts, or none at all) (sample: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6). Western mass media is eager to pick up the Ukrainian version of the story, in addition to shamelessly promoting and cheering up their side in general.

Cover page of alleged RAND Research Report

14 Sep. A confidential "Research Report", allegedly published by RAND corporation in January 2022 on how to destroy the European economy by provoking war with Russia is leaked to the Internet (RAND denied the authorship; but they verifyably author this report (PDF), as highlighted by a Russian source here).

11-13 Sep. Russian forces are withdrawn from large part of their positions in the Kharkov region, with the front stabilizing along Oskol river. There have been since multiple Ukraiain attacks, threatening further major advances against outnumbered Russian forces, and strikes on mainland Russia. Missile strikes on Ukrainian forces, as well as infrastructure in Kharkov and Krivoi Rog have been reported. Efforts to bring Russian reinforcements so far were on regional/local level, with calls by more radical figures, not in the central government, to start mobilization and other steps expected in a "normal" war. Those calls so far were not answered, and campaign so far remains a 'special military operation', despite the obvious dangers.

10 Sep. According to war correspondents, Ukrainian forces succeeded in entering western part of Kupiansk, and creating a landing ground near Krasnyi Liman. There is danger of Russian forces in Izium surrounded/supply lines cut. It is said that forces in Izium are withdrawn.

6-8 Sep. Ukraine launched major attack near Balakleia, Kharkov region, using heavy artillery, tanks, and estimated 9000 troops, making advances of about 10-20 km, capturing villages, entering central Balakleia, and threatening roads supplying Russian forces in Izium. The area was defended by newly mobilized reservists and Rosgvardia police troops, with insufficient experience and available force. Attack preparations were known for weeks, but not acted upon. Aviation, reserves are sent in, not yet stabilizing the situation. According to opolchenie, Ukraine is using advantage in communications and precise Western MLRS/artillery to sent RSG groups deep behind the front lines. Fighting continues, front lines not yet stabilized.

1 Sep. Ukraine made an unsuccessful attempt to sent a reconnaissance and sabotage group, via Kakhovka reservoir, and shelled the area of Zaporozh. nuc. power plant, trying to prevent arrival of international inspector. The arrival was delayed, but inspectors later arrived. IAEA Rafael Grossi on video: "we are not stopping"

29 Aug. Reports of major Ukrainian attacks, in Kherson region and in Donbass. Fighting continues; yet attacks appear unsuccessful, with high casualties toll. Overall, this appears to be a stalemate.

26 Aug. Energodar administration: Ukrainian forces continue firing at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, four hits were recorded in the area of the storage of radioactive isotopes. Radiation background remains normal". (Those incidents, by now numerous, are close calls, nothing excluded, responsibility is on Ukraine and the backers).

24 Aug. Ivan Sushko, head of Russian military-civilian administration of Mikhailovka settlment, Zaporozhkii region, was killed in by a car explosion

Ukrainian strike with "Tochka U" on Rovenki, LPR, over 100 km from the front line is reported. It is said that buses and trucks repair shop is hit. At least two people are killed.

RU DM Shoigu stated that slowed pace of Russian advances is intentional decision aimed at minimizing civilian deaths.

20 Aug. Darya Dugina, daughter of Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin, was killed in a car explosion in Moscow region. Alexander Dugin was the apparent target. Russian investigators blamed Ukrainian services as organizers and a Ukrainian woman who moved to Russia this July. The woman escaped to Estonia after the car exploded. Darya was a journalist and philosopher herself. She, as her father, supported Russian causes, as philosophers.

In the past weeks, there have been multiple Ukrainian attacks of targets in Crimea, Donbass, and mainland Russia.

10 Aug. As a result of Ukrainain shelling of a brewery in Donetsk, an ammonia tank was damaged and a poisonous substance was released. Warning is issued, with damage zone of 2 kilometers.

Numerous other reports of shelling in Donetsk. Also 36 cases of people injured by "petal" anti-personnel landmines dispersed by Ukraine over Donetsk have been reported so far, including a child; one person is killed.

9 Aug. Explosions and fire at the military airport in Novofedorovka, Crimea 1, 2, 3, 4

Satellite photos: 1 (overall view, appears to support ammunition explosion; ammo was behind some kind of earth wall or similar); 2 airbase (shows a destroyed building and suggests likely damage to some aircraft). Noted, Ukrainian media showed (a non-geolocated) photo of one destroyed aircraft; while pro-Russian sources (Oleg Tsarev) claimed no or little damage to aircraft and damage to localized parts of a nearby settlement, due to ammo explosion (later clarified that apparent damage is in the area behind a fence, from an area where his friends were doing firefighting). Nothing seems really excluded, sabotage, accident, or Ukrainian and co strike with undeclared long-range weapon, or Ukrainian or saboteurs strike on ammo storage from somewhere nearby.

6 Aug. Kherson region. Deputy head of the administration of Novaya Kakhovka for housing and communal services Vitaly Gura died from his injuries after Ukrainian assassination attempt, one of the many attacks on Russia-backing officials.

4 Aug. Ukrainian artillery strike on opera theater in central Donetsk where memorial for "Korsa" was to be held. It is reported that people were evacuated but there are wounded and killed.

More Ukrainain strikes on central Donetsk; it is reported that at least 5 civilians are killed, 6 wounded.

3 Aug. Well-known female DPR defender, Colonel Olga Kachura "Korsa" is killed. Her car came under artillery fire on the Gorlovka-Yasinovataya highway. She was awarded with Hero of DPR title posthumously. Formerly she was in Ukrainian police force for 16 years.

31 Jul. It is reported that Ukraine shelled residential Donetsk with cluster munition dispersing anti-personnel "petal" landmines; apparently "Uragan" munition was used.

On the Fleet Day, a drone attack, with a small DIY munition, on the HQ of the Russian Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol. It is said that 6 people are wounded by flying glass.

In Donbass, slow, difficult head-on advances of DPR and Russian forces on heavily fortified Ukrainian positions (Avdeevka, Peski).

29 Jul. Ukraine shelled a prison in Yelenovka where Ukrainian POWs from Mariupol were held. Is is said that 40 prisoners were killed and 130 wounded. Russia called for international investigation.

25 Jul. Bellingcat and their handlers in British intelligence fail in their plot to pay Russian air force pilots to hijack their planes and fly them to Ukraine,

Some sources 1, 2 claim that American multinationals bought 17 million hectars of Ukrainian agricultural land; that would be about half of all quality agricultural land and some 28 % of Ukrainian territory. Opposing sources estimate foreign multinationals land purcahses from 2.8 to 6 mln hectars

24 Jul. "Iranian drones for the Russian Army are already on their way - Ukrainian media"

US to give Ukraine hundreds of kamikaze drones

18 Jul. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accuses the West of a long practice of using "staged incidents" as a way of doing politics. (mirror, original in Russian) Lavrov fails to mention the 2013 sarin false-flag attack on Ghouta in Syria.

17 Jul. Both sides are believed to prepare major operations. Related: Ukr. general Malomuzh interview, covered in Russia under "Putin's ultimatum", here.

Rusvesna: "The UAF militants posted on the Web another video with what was left of the American M777 howitzer, destroyed by our gunners"

Report: "In the area of Krasnoarmeysk settlement, DPR, high-precision ground-based weapons destroyed a launcher and a transport-loading vehicle of a US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system" (with unclear video).

15 Jul. It is said that one HIMARS has found itself in Russia.

13 Jul. LPR forces destroyed/captured US-made M777 howitzer, video posted 1, 2.

12 Jul. TASS on Ukrainian MLRS strike on Novaya Kahovka city, Kherson region. Loss of life, destruction. HIMARS said to be used.

10 Jul. Chasov Yar, northern Donetsk region/DPR. Russian side says that the strike was on militants and foreign mercenaries, have a video and photo to back up the claim. Ukrowestern media report that 15 civilians were killed. (On the video, made by Ukr. militants, a running militant shouts, in Russian, that a civilian building is hit, mixed with expletives; another militants speaks English; before another missile flies over and explodes nearby).

Russian side says (with video) that its artillery destroyed a launching platform of Brimstone missile, inside a civilian-looking truck, after a missile was launched.

3 Jul. Report: Russian and allied forces delivered powerful strikes on strongly fortified Ukrainian positions in Avdeevka, apparently at or near a coke chemical plant. Those are among the positions from where residential areas of Donbass and Makeevka are regularly shelled, for a long time.

Ukraine fired missiles on Russian Kursk, Belgorod. In Belgorod, 5 civilians are killed, several wounded, several homes damaged, apparently by "Tochka U" missile. Russia attacked Ukrainian military targets in response.

Russian and allied forces takeover of Lisichansk is drawing to a close, after the area was surrounded, and key positions taken over by the Russians. Few remaining pockets of resistance are mopped up. Some Ukrainian forces possibly managed to retreat; exact counts are uncertain. There is celebratory footage from the city center by Chechen and Cossack units, and declaration of liberation of all of the LPR.

It is said that Kazakh 'Silky Way' ship from Novorossisk, RU, to a port in Turkey, with a cargo of grain (?) is either arrested or not allowed.

1 Jul. Lev Vershinin: Swedes bent (see also: A.S. Pushkin).

30 Jun. RU MoD: Russian forces left Zmeinyi island. Reason provided is a goodwill gesture showing that Russia does not prevent export of Ukrainian grain. Apparent other reason is that Ukrainian forces gathered artillery and MLRS which could overwhelm small island air defenses, and it was too onerous to defend by other means.

27 Jun. Fire at a shopping /TV center in Kremechug: (early) Russian version here (either a strike on a nearby plant, believed to be involved in repairing military equipment, or Ukrainian provocation); maps: apparently 1, 2. Ukrainian version: Western and Ukrainian media. Noted: G7 meeting; Ukrainian appeal to the UN; case-making for more Western weapons and aid to Ukraine. Some Ukr. media videos: (fire), (aftermath]).

Lavrov: as RU MoD explained, the strike was on "hangars where American and European weapons and ammunition arrived".

25 Jun. Severodonetsk is under Russian control. 1, 2, 3.

24 Jun. Ukrainian first use of US-made HIMARS is reported 1 (video), 2.

It is said that Ukraine is preparing counter-attack(s)

22 Jun. A drone attack on a refinery in the Rostov region - a fire broke out at the plant. (On the WW2 Nazi invasion day).

20 Jun. Ukrainian forces attacked 3 Russian-manned oil drilling platforms in the Black Sea, near Zmeinyi island, off coast of Odessa. One platform was hit, 5 out of 12 workers were rescued, others are missing.

Donetsk remains under heavy shelling, a hospital is hit.

Russian missile strikes on ammo and fuel depots (1, 2, 3), military headquarters reported.

Lithuania is blocking railroad transit to Kaliningrad, Russia launched a strong protest.

11 Jun. DPR head Pushilin on condmened by DPR court British, Moroccan subjects: the convicts did not hide their crimes, and official London and Rabat did not apply to the Republic about their subjects.

5 Jun. Ukrainian shelling of Donetsk continued in the morning, NATO-supplied 155 mm is said to be used. Overnight, Russian forces performed strikes on military (and infrastructure?) targets in Kiev, Kramatorsk, and elsewhere (Ru MoD version: [text, video).

4 Jun. Heavy Ukrainian strikes on central Donetsk (said to be 40 "Grad" rockets). 5 civilians were killed, 20 wounded. Fighting elsewhere in Donbass continues (Ru MoD version) (Foreign Legion in Severodonetsk -ends with a man's medical evacuation).

Four Foreign Legion members were killed in Ukraine: Dutchman Ronald Vogelaara, 47-year-old Australian Michael O'Neill, Bjorn Benjamin Klavis and Wilfried Blair (1, 2 )

30 May. Chechen spetznaz sends a video report showing them in residential and central Severodonetsk, and in harmony with the civilians. It is said that Ukrainian forces still control the industrial zone (and unclear what else).

Earlier, interview with civilians in Severodonetsk interrupted by a shell exploding nearby. (While Ukrainians are geolocating on social media) - 1, 2.

Head of the Dnepr ter. defense Gennady Korban: "Kiev, Sumy, Chernigov and Kharkov urgently need to build a deep echeloned defense". He also called for mining the northern border of Ukraine.

Shelling of Donetsk by Ukraine with heavy weapons continues, it is said that at least 6 civilians are killed and 14 (in another report, 16) are wounded.

“The shells were delivered. And yesterday and today is a sea of spills "- Arestovich (Ukr.)

29 May. Donetsk is under sustained Ukrainian fire from NATO-supplied 155 mm artillery. Donetsk, Makeevka, Gorlovka are also shelled by other heavy weapons (Grad, Uragan). At least two civilians are killed, and several civilians are wounded.

27 May. Ukrainian former president Victor Yanukovich: "On the edge. Ukrainian statehood is decided now" (posted on Facebook, full text copied here)(reaction/criticism)

25 May. It is said that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Svetlodarsk, avoiding being surrounded.

24 May. Interview with Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of the Russian security council.

19 May. Song clip, in Ukr. mova, about Azovstal surrender and all that.

14 May. Gonzalo Lira: some 400 -700 Ukrainian soldiers may be dying per day, for no reason.

Tucker: There is something really wrong (regarding US aid vs US state of affairs).

Dmitry Medvedev comments on G7 statement.

Israel denies equipping Ukraine with Blue Spear missile through Estonia (that was claimed by a Ukrainian journalist and repeated in Russia at least by one opolcheie activist).

Updates, see Talk

10 May. An eyewitness photographed a giant convoy of grain trucks in the Moldovan port of Giurgiu on the Danube. Probably, trucks export grain from Ukraine to the EU.

5 May. Ukraine got access to high resolution optical satellite data

NYT: "U.S. Intelligence Is Helping Ukraine Kill Russian Generals, Officials Say"

1 May. Belgorod region, Russia. A fire at a RU MoD facility is reported, one person is lightly injured.

Governor of Kursk region, Russia: bridge destruction was the result of sabotage

Evacuation buses in Mariupol. It is said that about 80 civilians are evacuated from Azovstal. On videos, clear footage of some women and children; few young men in civilian closes are also shown from the back; they may or may not accompany some women and children. One middle-age man with bandaged hand briefly flashed. A woman speaks on camera, to tell they were hiding from shelling. Another, that Azov's men accused them of being pro-Russian, after breaking into their apartments and seeing some flags. It is said that those people were first taken to Bezymennoe, DPR, and then those who wanted to go to Ukraine were handled to Red Cross. It is said that earlier two groups of civilians, 25 and 21 people, left using humanitarian corridors.

Chinese regulators have held an emergency meeting with domestic and foreign banks to discuss how they could protect the country’s overseas assets from US-led sanctions similar to those imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

30 Apr. US AF is "ensuring the rapid movement of critical supplies and assistance to NATO allies and partners in support of Ukraine." . See also, US DoD.

US lend-lease act states that it is to protect civilian populations in Ukraine from Russian military invasion, and for other purposes; however it was introduced on Jan. 19, well before the military operation.

27 Apr. At nighttime, a fire at an ammo storage (said to be put out), and air defense activated in several regions of Russia near the border 1,2.

26 Apr. Lloyd Austin, CNN: "we want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can't do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine". A National Security Council spokesperson: "We want Ukraine to win."

Initial explosions at the Balakleya depot in March 2017

More videos emerge from the huge munition depot in Balakleya, Kharkov region captured by Russian forces in early April. However, most of the warehouses at the depot were already destroyed in explosions in March 2017. Some people have credited the explosions to Petrov and Boshirov.

25 Apr. Opolchenie claims that there are large scale preparations for Ukro-Romanian assault on pro-Russian Transnister. Separately, security ministry in Transnister was attcked; it is reported that empty tubes from grenade/Shmel' launchers are seen.

Unknowns blew up a regional radio center in the Transnistria, which rebroadcasts Russian radio programs.

Two large unexplained fires in Bryansk, Russia (video, photo, versions), some 100 km from Ukrainian border. One of the fires is at oil storage, the other unspecified.

According to gov. Starovoit, in Kursk region, Russia, at 4.15 am, the air defenses shot down two Ukrainian drones.

Ukrainian sources report strikes on railroad traction substations in central Ukraine. Ru MoD: Six traction substations are destroyed by long-range high-precision weapons in the areas of the Krasnoe, Zdolbunov, Zhmerinka, Berdichev, Kovel and Korosten railway stations, through which Ukrainian forces in the Donbass are supplied with foreign weapons and military equipment.

23 Apr. It is said that Ukraine shelled a border post and a border village of Tyotkino in the Kursk region, Russia.

Ru MoD briefing on US and NATO preparations for a provocation accusing Russia of using nuclear, chemical or biological weapons (also here).

Russian humanitarian coordination center describes further Ukrainian provocations plans, including: exploding ammonia tank at a cold storage facility in Odessa, some 500 m from Ukrainian Navy base; provocations during Christian orthodox Easter celebrations; producing photovisuals of Bucha kind; etc.

Fact Sheet on U.S. Security Assistance for Ukraine

21 Apr. Putin ordered to block but not storm "Azovstal". (Opolchenie supported).

2o Apr. Two Russian oligarchs are found dead in Spain and Moscow, along with their butchered families.

Where is Gonzalo Lira?

18 Apr. Gonzalo Lira is presumed dead or captured after being missing for 3 days. (Released on April 22, 2022.)

17 Apr. Ru MoD briefing: (hostages in a mosque freed; an offer to "Azov" to surrender in Mariupol, but they have orders not to; Western mercenaries numbers).

LPR report: civilians shelled by retreating Ukrainian forces; Ukrainian forces getting killed or captured, many drafted from Western Ukraine; their policemen sent to front lines due to shortages; captured Western-manufactured anti-tank weapons shown and discussed.

16 Apr. Ru MoD Konashenkov: as of today, irretrievable Ukrainian losses are 23,367 people". "We will soon publish some data from Ukrainian documents on their losses, revealing the place of death, the burial places of the dead"

Killed and wounded - Ukr. military unit 3057 including "Azov"
Killed and wounded - 4th brigade, Ukr. national guards, military unit 3018, as of March 29.
Killed and wounded -9th Operational Regiment, Ukr. national guards, military unit 3029, as of March 29.
27 separate brigade (military unit 3066) and 15 separate battalions (military unit 3055)
More military units of Ukr. national guards

It is reported that Il'icha plant in Mariupol is taken by Russian and L/DPR forces, remaining Ukrainian forces are at Azovstal plant and pockets nearby.

14 Apr. In the evening: air warning all over Ukraine; explosions in Zhitomir; explosions in Kiev (it is said that machine-building plant "Vizar" near Kiev where anti-aircraft missile systems and anti-ship missiles are manufactured and repaired was seriously damaged).

"Missile attack on the oil depot in Ivano-Frankovsk. Ukrainian channels report that the target has been hit and is on fire".

Governor of the Belgorod region, Russia, Vyacheslav Gladkov. “There was shelling from the Ukrainian side of our village Zhuravlyovka. There is damage to residential buildings and social facilities. " According to opolchenie, a number of people were wounded, several sseriously; a child was wounded.

Russian missile cruiser warship "Moskva" is "seriously damaged" near Sevastopol by munitions explosion following a fire, the crew is evacuated in stormy weather. Earlier Ukraine claimed that the ship was hit by their missiles. There are no further details or confirmations of either version of events.

"The source of fire has been localized. There is no open burning. Explosions of ammunition have stopped;" "the cruiser remains buoyant, and its main missile armament is not damaged".
RU MoD: Cruiser "Moskva" sank during towing in stormy seas.
Allegedly, in addition to "Neptune" anti-ship cruise missile, Ukraine could have Norwegian "Penguin" anti-ship missiles delivered with US lethal weapons assistance.
16 Apr. Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy Admiral Nikolai Evmenov met with the crew of the cruiser Moskva (embed. video).

12 Apr. Over 1000 Ukrainian marines surrended in Mariupol, said to DPR forces, some 300 of them wounded, 90 cannot walk themselves -video report.

8 Apr. In yet another false-flag attack Ukraine fires a Tochka-U ballistic missile at the Kramatorsk railway station, killing ~50 civilians. Western media parrots Ukrainian version of a Russian attack, despite the fact that Russia no longer uses Soviet Tochka-U missiles and such an attack would be opposite to Russia's purposes.

A massacre victim found in Bucha right next to his house.

Apr 3. Ukrainian filmcrews find up to 400 hundred massacre victims in Bucha, four days after Russians leave the area.

31 Mar. Konashenkov: DPR forces, using trophy 'Stinger' missiles, shot down two Mi-8 helicopters evacuating Azov commanders from Mariupol. (Interviews with survivors appear to show that their helicopter was evacuating fighters/wounded fighters).

30 Mar. Russian forces leave Bucha, a town nothwest of Kiev.

27 Mar. Pasechnik: a referendum on LPR joining Russia will be held in the Republic, after liberation.

25 Mar. Scott Ritter about conflict in Ukraine.

Two civilian women are killed by Ukrainian shelling in Donetsk, at least 4 civllian women are severely wounded.

23 Mar. Lavrov about negotiations with Ukraine (full video).

Russia to sell gas to unfriendly nations in rubles.

Russia, NATO accused opposing side in preparing chemical weapons events - 1, 2.

Ads for the Ukrainian Legion dominate Western Right-Wing media.

19 Mar. After iniital advances, intense fighting (Mariupol, Avdeevka, suburbs of Kharkov, Kiev), with little change on the map. Russia did not announce mobilization, and initial force, of around 100K, is rather small; while aviation, artillery is of little use in cities full of civilians Russia tries to protect. (Ukraine announced general mobilization on Feb. 24).

Russia also failed to cut or counter militaristic propaganda on Ukrainian channels (like this).

Yurii Tkachev, chief editor of Timer-Odessa, is arrested by SBU. He was nowhere pro-Russian but tried - as he could - to be objective. 1, 2.

11 opposition parties are banned in Ukraine, including OPzZh (opposition party -for life) and Sharii party. 1, 2.

18 Mar. "Ukraine attacked Tekstilshchik market in the Kirovsky district of Donetsk. Four civilians were killed, the exact number of wounded is still unknown". "According to updated information, the shell hit a residential building on the street. Petrovsky, 111 c. All the dead were women born in 1960, 1972, 1974, 1997."

16 Mar. Azovites blow up the Mariupol Drama Theater, where up to 1200 people may have been sheltering. "Kiev" (speaking from Lviv) accuses the Russian air force of bombing the building. Local residents exposed the false-flag plan four days earlier.

14 Mar. "'Tochka-U' strike in Donetsk from a security camera", 2, 3, at least 20 killed. It is said that missile was shot down, apparently launched from Ukrainain-held Avdeevka.

13 Mar. Steshin: It is said that Ukraine is preparing two more provocations in Mariupol, against a mosque where Turkish citizen are hiding, and against a drama theater full of women, elderly and children.

10-12 Mar.: Map.

11 Mar. Head of the Russian National Defense Control Center, Col.-Gen. Mikhail Mizintsev: “Another provocation of nationalists was recorded in Kharkov, where, in order to conceal research work on nuclear topics, militants of territorial defense battalions blew up one of the buildings of the Physics and Technology Institute on Akademicheskaya Street. Up to 50 employees of the institution can be under the rubble.”

Ukrainian version of events: transformer hit by Russian shelling. (AFAIK, neither side provided photovisuals or other evidence)

Ibid, Video: Describes humanitarian corridors: few are open, and only to the West, despite over 2.6 mln. recorded requests to evacuate to Russia,

Anti-censorship host file to escape Western info-prison

5 Msr. DPR. "Vakha", commander of "Sparta" battalion, was killed. According to Pushilin, it happened during evacuation of civilians from Volnovakha. Safe evacuation routes for civilians were agreed during second round of negotiations; however DPR said that civilians were prevented from evacuation by pro -Ukr forces who used it to regroup instead.

"In Kyiv, right at the Pechersk Court, SBU officers killed Kireev, a member of the Ukrainian delegation at the negotiations in Gomel with Russia. Allegedly "for treason."" It is also said that`Kireev was an agent of Ukr. GUR MoD which hailed him as a hero.

2/2 Mar. The Russian delegation arrived at the place of negotiations in Belovezhskaya Pushcha. TASS on second round results: humanitarian corridors is the only outcome agreed; yet, third round is expected next week, and more rounds "may be needed".

1 Mar. "Battles map for the past day" (as per source/unofficial)

DPR: In the past day, 4 civilians are killed, 23 civilians wounded by Ukrainian shelling.

Vladimir Ruban, who in the past successfully negotiated priosners exchanges for the Ukrainian aide, has been brutally detained in a train by "Azov" people (video).

It is said that "Ukrainian ace" Oksanchenko, who bombed Lugansk, was shot down over Kiev

28 Feb. LPR forces have taken Schastie city.

DPR forces "started operation to liberate Kramatorsk"

Tragedy in Donetsk. When carrying out restoration work in the Kiev region of Donetsk, a Donbassgaz brigade came under Ukrainian fire. One locksmith was killed. Two were seriously injured. The guys were repairing damage caaused by previous shelling, which occurred an hour before

In the morning, "in Kharkov - a powerful rocket/missile attack", said to be Russian airstrikes on military targets.

27 Feb. Lukashenko about Ukrainian no-show at peace negotiations in Gomel, Belarus 1, 2, 3, 4. Suggesting that Zelesnkii is either not allowed to proceed, or, as his Ukrainian contact told him, is "inadequate, does not understand what is happening"

Updated, Ukrainian delegation said to go to negotiations, now at Ukraine-Belarus border.

26 Feb. Pushilin warns about Ukrainian plans to shell Ukrainian-held cities in the Donbass.

25 Feb. In the early morning, missile strikes on military targets in Kiev. One Kalibr missile was shot down by Ukraine and fell in residential area. Ukrainian forces fired Tochka U missile on a military airport in Millerovo, Rostov region. Aircraft said to be in the air and undamaged, but there are wounded; casualties are being verified.

Gorlovka. st. Sokolovsky, 15, school number 50 - a direct hit by Ukrainian shell. Two women, both schoolteachers, are killed.

Ukraine fired Tochka U missile, Grads, artillery on Donetsk

24 Feb. День Z (Z Day): After much speculation Russian forces start an invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian forces offer little resistance.

DPR ombudsman, as of October, 2021: since the beginning of the armed conflict in the DPR, 5,022 people have died, including 91 children. The Ukrainian side is holding about 92 people. The list of missing persons includes 354 people.

"Putin decided to conduct an operation to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine"

"Explosions" reported. Kiev, Kharkov, Borispol airport mentioned.

Reports of forces landing in the Odessa region, a large landing ship (BDK) and helicopters are said to be involved. Ukraine denied landing reports.

CNN: An adviser for the Interior Minister of Ukraine, Anton Gerashchenko, has told journalists on an official WhatsApp group that Russian troops have landed in the city Odessa and are crossing the border in the city of Kharkov.

Reports of two shells hitting Belgorod, Russia. Aparently minor damage.

23 Feb. The heads of the DPR and LPR appealed to Putin with a request to assist in repelling aggression from Ukraine

LPR soldier Denis Ponomarev is killed by Ukrainian sniper near Zhelobok settlement.

In the past day, 4 DPR soldiers are wounded, 3 civilians killed.

LPR. At 23:35 on 22 Feb., the armed formations of Ukraine violated the ceasefire regime in the Zolotoe-4-Berezovskoye direction, using an anti-tank missile system (one guided missile). As a result of a direct hit in a car, two civilians were killed. Number of ceasefire violations on 21 Feb. increased to 65 (double the number on 17 and 18 Feb.) On 22 Feb, LPR shelled 114 times (1446 ammunitions: 297 shells, 554 mortar shells, 11 rockets and 584 grenades).

In the past several days, Ukraine continued to shell L/DPR in multiple locations.

Biden-Putin summit is off. Western sanctions are imposed.

Ukrainian PM Shmygal: fulfilling Putin's conditions (demilitarization, rejection of joining NATO, recognizing the decision of the inhabitants of the Crimean peninsula to reunite with Russia) is impossible.

The National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine decided on the state of emergency in Ukraine, except for Donetsk and Lugansk regions (needs Rada confirmation). There is special regime in Ukraine-held parts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions since 2014, with changes in 2018

21 Feb. After a lecture in history, Putin signed in a televised report recognizing independence and sovereignty of L/DPR, and friendship, cooperation and assistance treaties with those, together with Pushilin and Pasechnik. Decrees are published: DPR, LPR.

Friendship treaties by now are ratified; full text of the draft is here

Putin instructed MoD to ensure peacekeeping functions in the Republics until the conclusion of relevant agreements. Not fully confirmed: the first units of Russian troops are already entering the L/DPR.

Putin told Macron and Scholz that he would soon sign a decree recognizing the DPR and LPR (1,[2).

RU security council meeting is being broadcast live.Recognition of L/DPR requests, security guarantees, Minsk non-fulfillment by Ukraine on agenda.

Pushilin and Pasechnik asked Putin to recognize L/DPR, to include friendship treaty and defense cooperation.

It is claimed that Ukrainian RSG is destroyed on Russian territory by FSB and RU Souther district armed forces, alleged details here, as per the source. (Doubts noted). Earlier report gave location of the fight as Kuznetsy settlement (what's the point going there?), apparently near Novoazovsk, where RSG brekthrough was reported; but this report give location as Miatikinskaya settlement (where shelling was reported a day earlier), apparently 180 km nortwest, close to Lugansk. (Noted, small settlments with common names could be mismapped). Ukraine denies charges.

Non-regular Russian security council meeting will take place.

DPR: “At approximately 08:10 am in the Novoazovsky district of the DPR, an enemy sabotage group broke through.” According to the Ministry of State Security, Ukrainian militants tried to reach the Russian border. But they were met by the People's Militia units. A fight is ongoing. "As a result of the breakthrough, a warehouse of rocket and artillery weapons of the People's Militia Department of the DPR was blown up" (I'd be cautious here, background-based...).

Noted, Russia closed airspace over large part of Azov sea, 21-26 Feb. for firing exercises.

Social media: RU tanks with anti-Javelin roof, TOS-1A «Solntsepek", signed with Z, are shown and claimed to be near Ukrainian border.

RU FSB: On 21 Feb., at 09:50, an unidentified projectile fired from the territory of Ukraine completely destroyed the place of service of the border patrols of the border guards of the FSB of Russia in the Rostov region, located at a distance of about 150 meters from the Russian-Ukrainian border. There were no casualties, sappers are on the scene (TASS).

At about half past three in the morning in the Trudovskiye district of the city of Donetsk, at the intersection of Dunayevsky and Markin streets, as a result of mortar shelling by Ukrainian forces at a public transport stop, a civilian was killed - a miner who was going to the morning shift (photos/video), unblurred in this ([https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7455688.html collection)].

20 Feb. Putin-Macron: Elysee Fr, En., Kremlin Ru, En

Macron proposed that a summit could be held between Biden and Putin, who have each accepted the principle of such a summit. Its content will be prepared by Blinken and Lavrov meeting on 24 Feb. It can only be held if Russia does not invade Ukraine.

Rada MP Kyva: The genocide of the Ukrainian people by the hands of the authorities and Nazi groups controlled by it!!! The authorities tried to kill the head of the Kharkov anti-fascist movement - "Patriots for Life"

Belarus DM: "Due to the increase in military activity near the external borders of the Union State and the aggravation of the situation in the Donbass, the Presidents of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation decided to continue checking the response forces of the Union State"

LPR (Filiponenko): "At around 5 am on February 20, the militants of the 79th Airborne Assault Brigade made an attempt to attack the positions of the People's Militia in the area of the settlement of Pionerskoye, forcing the Seversky Donets River. As a result of the clash, the enemy suffered losses and retreated." "The criminal actions of the Ukrainian armed formations led to the destruction of five residential buildings and casualties among the civilian population."

Water supply is cut to part of DPR and some Ukrainian-held areas after Ukrainian shelling or sabotage. More than 23,000 residents were left without water, over 50 social facilities - boiler houses, hospitals, kindergartens, schools.

19 Feb. DPR. "Special forces of the Ministry of State Security of the Donetsk People's Republic in the city of Donetsk blocked an enemy sabotage and terrorist group that planned to blow up electrical substations, gas pipelines and filter stations on the territory of the Republic." "Two special forces soldiers received gunshot wounds". Video: 1, 2, pro-Ukr doubts.

Russian media: two exploded Ukrainian Grad shells found on Russian territory, stanitsa (settlement) Mitiakinskaya, Tarasovskii district, Rostov region. Another report says that a house is hit in hutor (settlement) Patronovka in the same area/district. Some visuals are claimed here. Russian investigation committee-signed video here. Ukrainian sources try to make a case that this is an incident from August 1 (or 11) of 2014; however visuals found so far differ.

Heads of LPR and DPR signed decrees declaring general mobilization

Rada MP Ilya Kyva: "massacre and genocide are being prepared" (1, 2). Yesterday, many witnessed how the journalist and editor-in-chief of Censor.net Yuri Butusov (minion of Yatsenyuk, a friend and financial partner of Akhmetov), vilely, from the back, hit MP Nestor Shufrich, head of the Committee on Freedom of Speech of the Supreme Council of Ukraine.

18 Feb. Tatyana Montian makes a powerful presentation at UNSC meeting (Eng., Rus), accusing the West in arranging the coup and pushing for war; being a defense lawyer points out grave human rights violations in Ukraine. Oleg Tsarev warns that a terror campaign against non-supporters may be waged in Ukraine as Zelenskii is getting ready to start the war.

L/DPR evacuations: only children, women and the elderly can enter Russia through the checkpoints; military-age men remain in Donbass - they are asked to join the militia (see also; in another report, men aged 18-65 are not allowed to leave at Uspenka border crossing to Russia).

Several large explosions in Lugansk on gas pipeline and pumping station reported, with a video of a large fire.

DPR. "The car blown up in the center of Donetsk belongs to Denis Sinenkov, head of the People's Militia Department".

LPR. Red Cross convoy came under fire near Lugansk. Ukraine accused LPR forces; LPR denied any role calling it a provocation. Heavy fighting is reported later in the evening near Ukrainian-held Schastie.

DPR. Pushilin announced evacuation of civilians (video)

LPR head Pasechnik calls for civilians to evacuate to Russia.

Putin comments on situation in Ukraine during joint press conference with Lukashenko.

Basurin: according to information received from the DPR Ministry of State Security, at about 4:00 am in Gorlovka, a group of Ukrainian saboteurs attempted to blow up an ammonia storage tank at the Stirol plant. During the attack, a security guard who discovered the group of saboteurs was wounded.

Basurin: tonight, a sabotage group from the Vostok Special Purpose Center (the former 3rd Special Forces Regiment of the SOF) tried to penetrate the territory of the oil depot in the Yelenovka area blow up the tanks, believing that fuel and oil were stored in them. Large-scale catastrophy was avoided due to law enforcement agencies immediate response to the call of the security guard, preventing the attack.

"Death online", video. Ukrainian sources claim that video is staged.

Ukrainian source: "Tonight, on the communication lines of the Vodafone operator in the cities of Lisichansk (Shakhterskaya St.) and Slavyansk (Vokzalnaya St.), unknown people cut fiber-optic cables - the Ministry of Internal Affairs reports a sabotage."

A shell hits a kindergarten in Ukrainian-held Stanitsa Luganskaya. LPR accuses Ukraine of a false-flag attack

17 Feb. The morning after hoax Russian invasion day, serious deterioration of security situation, due to intense Ukrainian shelling, on all the separation line. L/DPR forces are returning fire. (Meanwhile, Ukrainian sources are publishing mirrror-imaged reports).

There are two (unconfirmed) opolchenie reports on evacuation of state workers, families and childcare facilities, from Donetsk and Dokuchaevsk (DPR) and Alexandrovka (LPR). However, Konstantin Chalyi, head of Alexandrovka administration, said that there is currently no evacuation order.

In the afternoon, opolchenie reported intense, targeted shelling of LPR positions under Bahmutka,one of possible directions of Ukrainian attack (mentioning without providing details some casualties and positions destruction).

Russian FM published reaction to American response on security guarantees

In the morning, a video is said to show smoke rising over the Russian embassy building in Kiev.

13 Feb. Opolchenie: According to reports from the front line, Ukrainian forces in the Sakhanka-Kominternovo area this afternoon and evening repeatedly cleared minefields in front of DPR forces front line using UR-77 "Zmei (Snake) Gorynych" mine clearing vehicles (as it is expensive, probably for a reason).

Ukraine received Stinger missiles and other equipment from Lithuania, two more planeloads of weapons from the US (said to be 17 in total so far).

11 Feb. More "Russia's attack dates", Feb 16, denied, and no publiclly available evidence (links in Talk)

Pushilin (1,2): Highly publicized in the Western media, stories about the “Russian offensive against Ukraine” were developed in 2017 by Kiev as a military exercise legend.

9 Feb. DPR : the source materials of not yet edited fake Ukrainian videos fell into the hands of the DPR forces. The video shows the positions of the Ukrainian military near Avdeevka. A DPR sniper allegedly "killed" a soldier there who was allegedly standing in a trench (video).

7 Feb. Macron-Putin talks in Moscow. Press conference.

2-7 Feb. DPR. Large number of false reports of explosive devices planted in schools, government buildings, after a confirmed explosive device in a government building in Donetsk. Almost 500 buildings had to be checked. Around New Year, similar false reports in Ukraine.

6 Feb. DPR soldier is killed by Ukrainian sniper fire.

2 Feb. Croatian president Zoran Milanovic accuses Britain of pushing Ukraine to war.

1 Feb. DPR soldier is killed by an explosive device dropped by Ukrainian drone.

31 Jan. UNSC meeting on Ukraine is called by the West.

The vote on holding an open meeting passed 10-2, with Russia and China opposed (video-"quiet diplomacy"), and India, Gabon and Kenya abstaining. The vote needed nine votes to be approved.
RU rep Nebenzia left the meeting (video), explaining it by the need to meet UN Gen Sec prior to Russia assuming rotating presidency from Feb 1, with a meeting on Minsk agreements implementation scheduled in February already.

Yurii Goluban, SBU "Alpha" veteran who is said (1, 2, 3) to join "Vostok" battalion, DPR, in 2014 but in 2017 took part in (possibly staged) events in Ukrainian-held Slavynsk and rewarded by Poroshenko, is arrested in Kiev during protests in front of the office of the president, accused of preparing mass distrurbances/"bloody Maidan".

29 Jan. In Alexandrovka, a civilian man, school locksmith Leonid B. 54, has a hip wound after a shot of Ukrainian sniper, in direct line of sight. The man is said to have Russian citizenship.

28 Jan. Fourth plane from USA delivered "81 tons of ammunition of various calibers" to Ukraine. More planes said to arrive next week. "Up to 45 planes".

27 Jan. LPR soldier is killed defending a checkpoint at Svetlodar arc (Artiom Artiomenko, DOB 1983, Gorlovka; recently obtained Russian citienship).

24 Jan. Basurin: Ukrainian Armed Forces step up preparations for offensive in Donbass.

23 Jan. Denis Pushilin, in an interview on anniversary of Ukrainian shelling of Bosse area in Donetsk (Jan 22, 2015, video) which killed multiple civilians: the West ignored Ukrainian shelling for years; creates media hysteria and sends to Ukraine lots of advanced weapons; while Ukrainian groups deployed 120 thousand strong force, and have groups ready for sabotage operations; but despite Western hysteria, we do not plan an attack.

21 Jan. Denis Pushilin in interview to RT Arabic: Ukraine is saturated with Western weapons, instructors; provocations and industrial sabotage is prepared by Ukrainian RSG (counter-claims, see here).

Photos of pallets of weapons sent by US to Ukraine (some signposted rocket/launcher; Javellin joint venture). 14 photos. Includes M141 bunker defeat munitions.

19 Jan. Ziuganov's faction introduced in Duma a draft resolution to appeal to Putin to recognize L/DPR. It is motivated by Ukraine's non-fulfillment of Minsk agreements. Resolution proposal was supported by other factions. However, Oleg Tsarev believes that this won't happen, at least in the near future, for keeping political leverage of Minsk agreements.

14 Jan, LPR reports multiple ceasefire violations by Ukraine. One LPR soldier is killed. LPR forces returned fire, and report that "by preliminary information" one Ukrainian soldier is killed and 2 wounded

9 Jan. L/DPR came under renewed Ukrainian shelling, after a reported lull (from 18 Dec. in LPR, 4 Jan. in DPR)

6 Jan. Russian AF started to transport troops to Kazakhstan, following CSTO decision (1, 2, 3)

"Intense shoot-out" between troops and armed protesters in Alma-Aty has been reported

5 Jan. Kazakhstan president Tokayev makes economic concessions to satisfy some of protesters demands, dismisses the government, and dismisses former long-time ruler Nazarbaev, who "anointed" Tokayev for presidency, from the security chief post he retained.

Kazakhstan mines about 41% of world's uranium (as of 2019)

4-5 Jan. Maidan-like events in Kazakhstan. Internet appears cut. It is said that protesters distribute weapons. Kazakh MOI: 8 policemen killed, 317 injured. CSTO will send peacekeepers] (1, 2). Video from Alma-Aty (some shooting, police sirens). "Unknown regime's snipers" seen by instigators based abroad. Fugitive banker Ablyazov called himself "protest leader" in Kazakhstan


Highlights from the past

30 Apr. U.S. Confirms Delivery Of Javelin Antitank Missiles To Ukraine

Poroshenko announced end of ATO and start of 'joint operation of armed forces', which is aimed at 'defending territorial integrity' and will only end 'when the last piece of Ukrainian land is liberated, including Crimea', which is somehow supposed to happen by 'political-diplomatic means'.

Videos

More videos on talk page

Photos

  • Recent history in a nutshell in those photos to the right:
Poroshenko, Kiska - EU entry at Uzhgorod
Alley of Angels, in memory of killed children of Donbass. Ukraine "über alles"?-Donetsk Partisan
Ukrainian AF killed and wounded in 'ATO', Maidan, Kiev
  • Aftermaths of Ukrainian shelling of the village Zheltoe (Yellow), LPR, 29 Nov. 2016 lug-info.

Sources

Note on sources. At present, pro -Ukrainian and pro-Russian sources more often than not offer opposing claims on events, and a choice needs to be made. Currently factual part of reporting by pro-Russian sources appear more accurate, complete, and closer to truth, out of the two available alternatives. It is also less known, as the other side has greater support by the Western mass media. For that reason, a lot of reporting here is based on Russian sources. It is not done for the sake of supporting any pre-determined narrative. If and when Ukrainian sources appear more accurate, they will be used without a reservation.

Some Ukrainian source reporting is very good, for example Tatyana Montyan numerous videos, some of them translated, are spot-on and at times appear closer to reality than any pro-this or that narratives. However the bulk of Ukrainian media is unreliable, and often just unbelievable, not passing cross checks (e.g. as was illustrated numerous times by well-read on both sides Ukrainian journalist Anatoly Sharii); or else, is filled with hate and may cheer more people harmed or killed (any of such sort, from any side, is totally unsupported here).

OSCE

Main article: OSCE Special Monitoring Mission

Official Ukrainian sources

Ukrainian media

DPR and LPR

Minsk Agreements

Safety zone (no heavy weapons) agreed at Normandy format meeting in Minsk, 12.02.2015. Black: current front line; red-19 September line. At the bottom it says: source: the web site of the President of Russia

Agreements

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Documenting Incidents, Human Rights violations

Analysis

Blaming Ukraine

Gennady Korban (Kolomoiskii team) "ATO operation handling was a failure" ru.tsn.ua 'Korban made statements about corruption [...] and failed ATO handling' . Previously, criticized using heavy weapons in Donbass and suggested that at most police action is appropriate.

Blaming Russia

  • '(...) Lies about Ukraine', -Boris Nemtsov, Leonid Martyniuk-blames Russian Government (based on inaccurate or later reversed statements made at the official level).

Blaming the USA

  • Paul Craig Roberts ’ Address to the International Conference on the European/Russian Crisis Created by Washington', June 19, 2015. ...' Wolfowitz Doctrine...The gullibility of the public has enabled Washington to establish the foundation for a new Cold War...' ' "Washington doesn’t want partners. Washington wants vassals" ' 'European governments and, of course, the lapdog UK government, are complicit in this implicit declaration of war against Russia and China. If it comes to war, Europeans will pay the ultimate price for the treason of their leaders [...] as Europe will cease to exist'.

Odessa news

26.4.2016 'Maidan' activists protesting against city mayor Trukhanov, erecting light barricades at the city administration building, were dispersed by unknown activists armed with wooden sticks and pepper spray, several protesters were injured (photos, videos in the report).

With May 2 anniversary approaching, situation remain tense. Nationalists are making threats aimed at city administration. Regional governor Saakashvilli asked Poroshenko to deploy national guards to the city for the early days in May, explaining that those were tragic events which still resonate with many people, while those responsible were not brought to justice; and that he feels extra guards are really needed. It appeared that the request was granted, but than contradicting reports appeared.


15.1.2016 Maria Gaidar became assistant head of Odessa regional administration (Saakashvilli is the head)

6.1.2016 The subsistence minimum (this is known as poverty level in the West) per odessite in 2016 is as follows: from January 1 - 1330 hryvnia per month (that is 55 USD at this time) , from May 1 - 1399 hryvnia, from December 1 - 1496 hryvnia 1 TV, Odessa.

27.8 DPR all-for all prisoners exchange list includes 63 anti-maidan activists arrested or charged after May 2 events.

19.7 Saakasvilli clashed with Filatov, Kolomoiskii ally. Clash has to do with elections in Chernigov where another Kolomoiskii ally Korban is running. Saakashvilli is said to come to support opposing candidate Berezenko, his main opponent, but gave a different reason for the visit; that ended in verbal and almost physical clash with Filatov (video), and a court case threatened by Filatov.

17.7.2015 Maria Gaidar appointed vice-governor responsible for social policy. She is a daughter of late Yegor Gaidar (a reformer, acting prime minister of Russia in the second half of 1992). Indicated that her priority will be to show residents that regional authorities care about them. tAfter showing reluctance to persistent journalist questions on who Ukraine is fighting with, eventually provided] politically correct answer telling that Russia attacked Georgia and Ukraine (on her 4th attempt).

30.5.2015 Mikheil Saakashvili appointed governor of Odessa region. Poroshenko stated that knows Saakashvilli for a long time and trusts him. Control of Odessa port which may be used for military aid, Transnistria border, and creating positive image abroad, are seen as some of the reasons behind the appointment. Port control and other economic matters placed Saakashvilli on collision course with Kolomoiskii, whose ally was a previous Odessa governor.

Photos/Videos

Debaltsevo Damage to houses, big craters. It is said in the article that sometime UAF intentionally damaged houses by a direct fire.

Uglegorsk: NAF arranged a corridor for civilians (English sub.) Donetsk children Enakievo Gorlovka Nikishino Nikishino (center) Uglegorsk

Ukrainian Agony

December 20, 2015: German freelance journalist Mark Batalmai, who has lived in Donetsk since mid-2014 and worked embedded with the opolchenie, releases his crowdfunded full-length documentary "Ukrainian Agony" in an English-language version (German-language original).

Minsk Agreements

Safety zone (no heavy weapons) agreed at Normandy format meeting in Minsk, 12.02.2015. Black: current front line; red-19 September line. At the bottom it says: source: the web site of the President of Russia

Agreements

Resurgent Events?

Since now, December 23 2015, for the (n+1) time unconditional ceasefire is announced, although I do hope that one is the last, there is no warranty. So I'll just keep labels and dates for important but so far resurgent events here.

February 23 update: by the end of January, 2016, lots of shelling incidents are again reported daily. Once again, promises of ceasefire did not materialize.

  • Unconditional Ceasefire in Donbas.
23.12.15 (starting 0:00, Dec 23, 2015, as announced-TASS
(22.7.15)
(12.2.15)
  • Donetsk Airport, Donetsk suburbs shelled by Ukraine
13.2.16;9.2.16; 26.1.16(tank fire);25.1.16;21.1.16; 20.1.16;15.1.16; 13.1.16;31.12.15 (Staromikhailovka); 29.12; 28.12.15 (Zhabichevo); 27.12.15(Petrovskyi) ; 26.12.15(Spartak); 24.12.15 ; 13.12.15 (Dokuchaevsk) .
(Every other day, up until now)
13.2.16;21.1.16; 11/12.1.16 (Engl).; 10.1.16 (1 DPR killed) 9.1.2016; 27.12.15; 24.12.15.
(Similar to the above)
  • Villages near Mariupol shelled by Ukraine
25.1.16 (artillery, from Mariupol);Kominternovo: 21.1.16;31.12.15 29.12.15 ; 24.12.15 + Basurin & OSCE came under sniper fire, 27.12

....

Updates

28.4.16 Detailed discussion of Nuland visit and Minsk progress by a Ukrainian source. Renewed push, with a deadline of having laws in place by the end of May, implementation by the end of summer is noted. IMF loan to Ukraine may be linked to Minsk implementation, as well as adoption of a packet of other required laws. However, so far Poroshenko tactics was to delay implementation hoping that time is on the side of Ukraine, and such an approach may last forever.

25.3.16 Foreign Minister Steinmeier in Moscow: "We need Russia to help resolve conflicts". Highlights insufficient progress implementing Minsk-2.

27.1.16 Constitutional amendments: Russia's position in Minsk talks:

  • the vote on the Constitution of Ukraine should be tightly linked to the simultaneous adoption of the amendments to Articles 1 and 10 of the law on the special status of Donbass by giving special status of a permanent framework according to "Steinmeier formula";
  • revision of the amendments to the law on the special status should be agreed in the contact group;
  • A legal formula has to be found that guarantees that paragraph 18 of the transitional provisions of the Constitution will refer to the current wording of articles 2-9 of the law on the special status and to new, agreed by the contact group, wording of Articles 1 and 10;
  • This formula should be fixed (закрепить (Rus) = lit. 'fix, make firm'; here 'used'/'entered') in the Constitution of Ukraine;
  • it is also necessary to legislate in the Constitution of Ukraine, that the powers of those representatives elected in Donbass elections under a separate law will not be discontinued in 2017, as is envisaged in the constitutional reform for the rest of Ukraine

Ukraine Contact Group notes "good exchange of views" — OSCE official, TASS-English

11.1. 2016 Boris Gryzlov visited Kiev. Next trilateral group meeting is on 13.1.2016 in Minsk.

Normandy four agreed to extend Minsk agreements into the year of 2016, TASS, Dec. 30, 2015

24.12.2015 Kuchma fools around trying to reinterpret Minsk agreements, demanding border control and in effect DPR/LPR disarmament prior to elections. This is not what was agreed (and could not possibly be agreed the way he tries to put it now, with Novorossia advancing militarily at the time of the agreement). Dirty games now, and so not surprisingly no progress...

18.11.2015 Ukraine did not show up for a contact group meeting where a law on special elections in Donbas was to be discussed. Previously, it was reported that sides could not reach an agreement. According to Pushilin, agenda included a ban for Ukrainian political parties to participate in local elections in Donbas, mechanism of participation for temporary displaced persons, and amnesty law.

15.3 Minsk 3 ? It is rumored that part of Ukrainian leadership is seeking a compromise and another Minsk meeting. Maybe an info release merely testing waters; but the essence of compromise is said to be a special mode to local government which covers the entire territory of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions (including those controlled by Ukraine), but these areas will be led by the people agreed as Kiev and Moscow, and the other members of the Minsk process (Germany and France). It is said that a similar proposal was made a year ago after a meeting involving Kuchma, Medvedchuk, and DPR, but Poroshenko refused to consider it and started the ATO instead. Ukrainian media claim that the plan is actually coming from "representatives of Moscow".

Kremlin 'melancholically denied' (Cassad) re-interpretations/free interpretations of Minsk TASS

12.6.15 Poroshenko expects to submit de-centralization bill to Rada by the end of parliamentary session in July

other constitutional changes proposed by the sides: see news entry for 9.6.15 above

10.6.15 Kuchma: Russia insists on including Novorosiia representatives into tripartite liaison group, Normandy format ; but his is not acceptable to us; they are included as consultants.

17-19.03 Russia called for a UNSC closed door meeting to discuss Ukraine breaking Minsk 2 agreements. Later Lavrov criticized the US position, and indicated further diplomatic moves and planned meetings in in Normandy format

16.03 Special status law requires elections based on laws of Ukraine prior to such special status. LPR/DPR were not consulted about this (although that is required in Minsk 2 agreements). With leaders of LPR/DPR and Soviets recently elected already, another elections will be problematic. There were no local elections though, may be local elections can be arranged in a way acceptable to both sides.

14.03 Poroshenko introduced special status law for Rada consideration -TASS quoting Rada site.

13.03 Zakharchenko and Plotniskii write to Hollande and Merkel about Ukraine not fulfilling its obligations: not following schedule on heavy weapons withdrawal; (most importantly) Rada has not started discussing special status for Donetsk, Lugansk regions--that work is supposed to finish by 14 March; continued economic blockade.

27.02 UNSC meeting on Ukraine started with OSCE report, highlighting state of affairs and challenges OSCE faces. Overall partial calming of warfare in the past several days noted. Neither side was willing to provide details of heavy weapons they posses, or their exact destination after proposed withdrawal. Technology (e.g. satellite), experts, and procedures need to be upgraded for OSCE to fulfill its required mission (video of OSCE presentation in Russian translation is here, other languages not found at this time)

abc news report dailystar SBS
Churkin gives a brief account of the UNSC closed door meeting TASS-English

24.02 FM meeting in Normandy format ended in Paris; heavy weapons withdrawal, verification, Debaltsevo were discussed, nothing new signed. Germany has concerns with implementation.

19.02 Poroshenko has held a phone conversation in the Normandy format, told them "not to pretend that the events in Debaltseve meet the Minsk agreements". He has also urged to elaborate clear guarantees for the possible attempts of violating the given agreements in the future. (Debaltsevo situation was known in Minsk--indeed he should not be pretending).

18.02 Poroshenko plans to ask for UN peacekeepers

17.02 UN SC unanimously approved a resolution supporting Minsk agreements. (Yet, testy rhetoric noted by Churkin)

14.02 Russia introduced UN SC resolution approving Minsk agreements of February 12. So far, English speaking world, UK and USA, did not clearly expressed their positions, and it may give an indication. So far, it was along the lines that Russia has to deliver, and may be further sanctioned otherwise, while Ukraine has nothing to deliver, and will not be sanctioned for failures. Russian officials called for a change of such approach, taking a position that the conflict is internally Ukrainian and Russia is not a participant (example). While Russian media are making presentations indicating that it is the USA who is a participant, in Kiev overlord capacity (example).

12.02 Two documents were agreed:

  • on measures on implementing Minsk protocol (English language PDF here). Ceasefire starting on February 15; separation of heavy weapons (from actual line for Ukraine, and from September 19 line for Novorossia; this enlarges separation), starting in 2 days from ceasefire, finishing in 14 days. All for all prisoners exchange, to finish in 5 days from separation begins. Time limits are given for all major steps. Return of border control to Ukraine is agreed to occur after local elections and constitutional reform (taking interests of breakaway regions into account)
  • declaration of support of Ukrainian peace settlement. This includes support and control of implementation.

10.02 Contact Group agrees (a plan of) heavy troops withdrawal, ceasefire regime -TASS

It may be the case that sides do not make binding obligations, but approve and support listed measures (language is a bit vague, if something is broken later, or sides do not agree whether later vague steps actually occurred, not clear exactly what will follow)

Plotniskii, Zakharchenko press statement (English subs)

Still no direct contact between official Kiev and Novorossia. -(Mentioned by Putin in his press statement as one of the reasons negotiations took so long, had to go back and forth with Trilateral Group).

08.02 After telephone conference today, it is said that Normandy four to meet in Minsk on 11.02 if some positions will be resolved prior to that. Details of positions not explained. (Lukashenko talked to both Putin and Poroshenko about this and is happy and keen for them to come to Minsk)

06.02 Hollande-Merkel-Putin talks are finished in Moscow, it is said that a Normandy format document is being prepared based on meetings in Kiev and Moscow. Phone conference call in Normandy format expected on Sunday. (--Putin spokesman Peskov, TASS).) Putin off to Sochi, meets Lukashenko and rests; Hollande and Merkel also departing Moscow.

Petro Poroshenko, Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande insist on the immediate and unconditional ceasefire in the Donbas

Plotniskii and Zakharchenko press conference -explains Republics position why it is not their fault that latest Minsk meeting did not succeed (English subs).

Victor Baloga, Governor of trans-Carpathian region of Ukraine, proposes a referendum on whether to continue war or separate from the rebel regions. Also, Gennady Korban, assistant Governor, Dnepropetrovsk, proposes to choose between war and an agreement.

Maps

20.02.2015 Front line, and heavy weapons withdrawal zones, black 25 km (artillery), green 35 km (MLRS), pink 70 km (heavy MLRS and Tochka U). Zones were agreed by Joint Center for Control and Coordination (JCCC). As of 24.02, only DPR and LPR pulling heavy weapons. (source)
18.02 Debaltsevo Cauldron. Debaltsevo is controlled by NAF. Blue arrows: Ukrainian armored vehicles escape route. (Click image for earlier versions)
02.02.2015 ATO map (Ukraine) .

Dragon-First maps; Kot Ivanov .

Casualties

Total

8.7.15 Zakharchenko, at a a joint LPR/DPR press conference: "In 2015, 1212 people were killed, including 25 children under the age of 18 years ". During the conflict in 2014, 3864 DPR peeople died , including 522 women and 65 children. "That is more than 5000 of our people were killed just because they are residents of Donbass." (unclear is this civilian deaths or total deaths--probably total). More than 6,200 people, including women, children and the elderly were seriously injured and became disabled for life were . More than two thousand DPR inhabitants are missing.

14.8.15 From the start of hostilities, 5061 people were killed, among them 4295 men and 766 women, according to the Office of the Commissioner for Human Rights in DPR; and according to the Center for Emergency Medical Aid, 6100 were wounded Dan-news, 14.8.15. The figure is close to the one given by Zakharchenko in July (he had a higher number of 5076, so a small discrepancy here)

Children killed

3.12.15 DPR ombudsman: during the conflict, almost 80 children were killed in Donbass, Rossiiskaia Gazeta, 3.12.2015. According to DPR ombudsman Yana Chepikova, uring the hostilities, 78 children were killed in DPR, 313 were injured, 35 of them seriously injured. In LPR, 30 children were killed according to data available.

Military Casualties

19.02 Zakharchenko: Ukrainian losses in Debaltsevo cauldron may be up to 3 -3.5 thousand killed. There are plans to release or exchange those taken prisoners.

16.02 UAF: estimated 60 killed; NAF 2 killed, 21 wounded (source).

14.02 for the day and up to the ceasefire started: UAF lost 111 killed, NAF lost 8 killed, 28 wounded -Basurn

13.02 up to 100 UAF killed Basurin, DPR

12.02 Day + night, UAF lost 169 killed (links in the news section)

08.02 LPR commander Maxim Martakov, a military policeman, and 6 fighters were killed under Chernukhino. They provided corridor for civilians. 11 UAF soldiers were killed, 29 wounded (Basurin)

04.02.15 UAF losses: 21 killed

03.02.15 UAF losses estimated at 79 killed.

02.02.15 UAF losses estimated at 130 killed.

  • Totals. In 29 days, up to ceasefire starting, 2760 UAF killed, 60 taken prisoners -Basurn
In 22 days since fighting restarted, 2056 UAF killed (Basurin)
17 Jan.-3 Feb. UAF losses estimated at 1738 killed, 52 taken prisoners (Basurin, DPR).

Civilian Casualties

According to the Head of the DNI, the year the war seriously injured for life became disabled more than 6,200 people, including women, children and the elderly. More than two thousand inhabitants DNI missing. 08.02 Many instances of shelling of Donetsk with MLRS (including Uragans), and artillery. One very powerful explosion (videos available) was reported as well. Later it was said that a chemical plant producing paints and dry mixes in Donetsk was hit by a heavy artillery shell (DPR did not confirm that it was ammunition plant); preliminary information is that nobody was killed in that explosion.

07.02 After ceasefire ended on 6.02, Ukraine attempted an attack on the whole front line; the attack was repelled. 6 civilians were killed, 15 wounded in Donetsk due to shelling by Ukraine from the North-West.

05.02. Shelling by Ukraine had 7 civilians killed, 44 wounded, most of them in Donetsk. Schools, hospitals, kindergartens hit. Ukraine is using Smerch MLRS; range is 80 km; a full salvo covers an area of 8 football fields.

04.02 Donetsk hospital shelled, 5 killed, 5 wounded. Civilian objects destroyed: Donetsk 17, Makeevka 28, Gorlovka 2

02.02.15 16 killed, 34 wounded in DPR and LPR combined. Civilian areas hit by MLRS, Makeevka and Donetsk, (13), (14) on opolchenie map, 02.02.2015

22.01 Donetsk bus shelled at least 8 killed, 13 injured

Residents react abusively to UAF 'cyborg' officer captured earlier at the Airport and brought to the scene

13.01 Volnovakha bus: 12 killed, 18 wounded (talk). 24.01 Mariupol market shelling: 30 killed, 83 injured (talk) .

  • Totals. Latest official UN figure: 224 civilians killed and 545 wounded in the three weeks leading up to 1 February. According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), the overall death toll now exceeds 5,358 people, with another 12,235 wounded since mid-April last year (Deaths here are likely certified, and mostly civilian).

Gorlovka

In 6 months ending July 2015, 164 civilians were killed, including 16 children; 501 were wounded, including 42 are children DAN news, quoting city administration data,31 July 2015.

UNHCHR

  • Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, "Accountability for killings in Ukraine from January 2014 to May 2016" -report. Blames both sides, but Western media mostly highlightes alleged crimes by rebels. While large number of civilian shelling victims are reported as if it is not known who is predominantly to blame. Significant number of other cases are likely not fully investigated or included in the report.
"Ukraine crisis: Impunity 'pervasive' in east, says UN" , BBC, 14 July 2016 (highlights one case in rebel controlled Luhansk, where some Cossacks were accused of a crime)

Military Hardware Lost

23.02 Zakharchenko: 'Poroshenko is our main ally'. In 5 days at Debaltsevo, 170 UAF tanks were captured or destroyed; most of them can be repaired. Also, 50 artillery pieces; they did not even count mortars. Ammunition, still move it out by railroad wagon-loads.

19.02 In Debaltsevo, opolchenie captured 265 pieces of UAF military equipment. 28 tanks, 63 BMP/BTR, 145 vehicles, 16 anti-aircraft guns, 13 artillery and mortar pieces were found in good condition and have been adopted by the DPR army. Also captured: about 1000 firearms, 39 ammunition storages and 2 railroad card with ammunition -Basurin

14.02 4 Grads launchers and ammunition seized by NAF near Debaltsevo -Basurn

03.02.15 Two UAF SU 25 were shot down (near Commisarovka and Chernukhino; one pilot bailed out). Also a drone shot down near Irvino

02-03.02.15 UAF lost 5 tanks, 1 BMP, 11 artillery pieces, one plane (and/or one Tochka U)

  • Totals: for 29 days, up to ceasefire: UAF lost 3 airplanes, 1 helicopter, 205 tanks, 182 BMP, BTR, MTLB, 208 field artillery guns, 124 vehicles -Basurn
for 22 days since fighting restarted: UAF lost 3 planes, 1 helicopter, 168 tanks, 133 BMP/BTR, 124 artillery pieces, 94 vehicles
17 Jan.-3 Feb. UAF lost 3 planes, 1 helicopter, 146 tanks, 114 BMP/BTR, 91 artillery pieces, 64 vehicles

Banned Weapons Use

Ukrainian tanks in residential area, Spartak-Peski, Spring-Summer 2015. Supposed to be free from heavy weapons (according to weapons withdrawal maps); but a long-running flash point in the conflict

There were numerous reports on phosphorus bomb use, with consistent photo and video footage, witness reports, burns consistent with such weapons use, etc. Many articles on Rusvesna on this topic. One of them here, for example, contain a photo of an explosion, and video, allegedly of nationalist battalion fighters, based on colors/regalia, discussing and accepting that such munitions were used by Ukraine (dated 13.02.2015 ). There were numerous other such incidents. The latest phosphorous munition report is by DoNI press, [1], translated at Fort Russ, Apr. 24, 2016, from Zaitsevo.

02.02.15 Report on phosphorous ammunition used against civilians by Ukraine-burns can be seen.

More photos, sky alight in Marinka (Donetsk suburb), Aug. 1, 2014

Cluster munitions

04.02.15 UAF shelled Telmanovo from Mirnoe by Smerch MLRS, civilian houses destroyed

03.02.15 Luhansk and Donetsk: Smerch, heavy MLSRS with cluster munitions used by Ukraine.

28.01.15 OSCE confirms (03.02.15 report) that cluster Smerch munitions were used against Artemivskyi district of Luhansk, shelling was from NNW. (Shelling done by Ukraine).

Economy

  • Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten: "The IMF has pumped billions in recent months into the Ukrainian financial system to stabilize the country's banks. Approximately $ 1.8 billion were going to the largest financial institution Private Bank, which is controlled by the oligarch Igor Kolomoiski. But instead of investing the money into the Ukrainian economy, Kolomoiski has managed to channel the emergency loans through a network of offshore companies abroad". [1] Ukrainian anti-corruption project "Our Money" ('Наші гроші' (ukr) = "Nashi Groshi") is quoted as offering an explanation of the scheme, involving a 'purchase' of foreign goods which were never delivered, using a credit from Private Bank, and the payment deposited to accounts in off-shore branches of the Privat Bank. [2]
  • Ukrainian $18 bln debt (held in bonds) will receive a 20% 'haircut'. However, between 2021 and 2040 investors will receive up to 40 per cent of the value of Ukraine’s annual economic growth above 4 per cent, although total payments will be capped at 1 per cent for the first four years. [3] [4] Ukrainian GDP is 177.4 billion USD ‎(2013) -by google search. It went down quite a lot in 2014; but the IMF projection is 134 bln USD in 2020. One percent of that in growth is 1.3 bln; such amount may be paid to investors for 20 years bringing 26 bln USD. Write-off amount is about 3.6 bln USD. This wonderful deal is called a 'win-win' by Ukrainian finance minister and the Guardian [5]. Franklin Templeton is one of the largest investors involved. Russia has 3 bln USD in Ukrainian debt and is not participating in the deal.(Vasili Muravitskii/Cassad brought up this matter).

Sources

News Sources

Official Donetsk People Republic (DPR) news dan-news.info.
Oplot TV-Donetsk Live now , youtube channel vk Oplot TV
First Republican Channel-DPR youtube vk ('official channel of DPR', created in April 2014, and unofficially broadcasting some material online; possibly re-broadcasting Russia 24 in their vacant slots.
Lugansk People Republic (LPR) news: LPR Sovet (legislature) site, news, luganskallnews.ru, news, lug-info.com
Rada; President.

English-language sources

Documentaries

Opinion Polls

13,3% would vote for the party "Block of Petro Poroshenko"
12,8% - for the All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland" (Yulia Timosenko)
6,8% - for the party "Union Samopomich" (Sadovyi)
5,8% - for the Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko,
4,1% - for the party "Opposition block" (Boyko) --formerly 'Party of Regions'-Yanukovich
3,1% - for the party "Civil position"
3,0% - for the party "Right Sector"
----
3,2% - have crossed all the parties /spoiled bulletin
14,3% - chose not to vote,
23,5% - hard to choose,
2,6% - refusal
Source: Socio-Political Situation In Ukraine: July 2015. Report also have opinions on various peace/Russia issues, by region (English).
How Do The Attitude Of Ukrainians To Russia And Russians To Ukraine Has Changed
  • In DPR/LPR, polling is done by Center for Sociological Study 'Special Status' (Центр социологических исследований «Особый статус» -russ.) Here is their opening presentation. Poll results are published by news sources.
DPR poll conducted in the beginning of August in 19 DPR towns, 5900 people took part, 5% statistical error
43 % for DPR to join the Russian Federation (33.8% 3 months ago)
17 % for DPR to be independent ('sovereign') (42.8 % 3 months ago)
18 % for the 'creation of a joint state' (unclear what that would be exactly- some sort of autonomy aligned with Russia)
11 % ('not more than') for DPR as a part of Ukraine. 14.9 % see some future with Ukraine following Minsk agreements (18.8 % 3 months ago)

Abbreviations Used

DPR: Donetsk People Republic (prime minister: Alexander Zakharchenko)

LPR: Lugansk People Republic (head: Igor Plotniskii)

JCCC Joint Center for Control and Co-ordination, consists of Ukrainian and Russian military officers,- tries to mediate to have ceasefire implemented.

MLRS: Multiple Launch Rocket System, Grad/Uragan/Smerch. Uragan or Smerch typically have cluster munitions

UAF (=AFU): Ukrainian Armed Forces

NAF (=AFN): Opolchenie, Novorossia Armed Forces

OSCE: Organization for Security and Co‑operation in Europe

RSG: recon and subversion group

SMM: Special Monitoring Mission-OSCE

References

  1. Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten, "Ukrainischer Oligarch bereichert sich an IWF-Krediten", 27.08.15
  2. RT (Russian), "DWN: Коломойский «оприходовал» транш МВФ и скрылся в Америке", 28.08.2015
  3. Financial Times, "Ukraine secures debt deal for war-ravaged economy", 27.8.2015
  4. Finance Ministry of Ukraine, Ukraine and the Ad Hoc Creditors' Committee agree on Indicative Heads of Terms for restructuring of sovereign and sovereign guaranteed Eurobonds, 27.8.2015
  5. The Guardian, Ukraine agrees 'win-win' debt restructuring deal, 27.8.2015