- 1 "Putin's (not) Ultimatum"
- 2 Reports that Russia is planning a "false-flag" operation may be false
- 3 Waiting for Godot
- 4 War
- 4.1 Western lethal weapons
- 4.2 Babushka Pobeda
- 4.3 "Moskva" cruiser
- 4.4 Lavrov's error
- 4.5 "Taira" exchange
- 4.6 Kazakhstan
- 4.7 Ukrainian shelling of Donbass cities
- 4.8 3 state Union?
- 4.9 "Iranian drones"
- 4.10 Ukrainian strikes on Zaporozhkaya nuc. power station
- 4.11 Crimea bridge
- 4.12 Drones attack on Sevastopol
- 4.13 Kherson
- 4.14 Banksy
- 4.15 Western main battle tanks
- 4.16 Has the West lost already?
"Putin's (not) Ultimatum"
Zbigniew Brzezinski: while 500 billion dollars owned by Russia’s elites still lie in American banks, whose this elite is, yours or ours ?
Maksim Kalshnikov: presently, it's 3 times that amount. He and Vershinin: but, there are still few top figures who are already in all sanctions lists, and who are officers (meaning code of conduct) who still care about Russia. (Continue to say how many things are stacked against Russia, financially, regarding Ukraine and NATO, etc).
On Borrell's stupid comment, only winners can make demands. Presumably he means that the West is the winner in Cold War 1? What else did he ever "won"? Cold war 1 is a separate matter(a lot of that was due to internal events, plus cunning manipulations externally, not a result of direct conflict) . A lot is stacked against Russia presently, making it, apart from the weapons, weaker. Money, economy as commonly practiced, cadres of capable leaders with actual power, etc. But, in terms of willpower and weapons, could be an advantage; while on ideology and worldview, the jury is out. Talk of weapons is because diplomacy is failing and there is no other choice. It would be a huge mistake to underestimate Russia in a case of a major direct conflict. Or hope of having "winners", and being the one. It is just nonsensical. --Resup (talk) 04:03, 30 December 2021 (UTC)
Reports that Russia is planning a "false-flag" operation may be false
- Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby holds a Press Briefing, January 14, 2022.
- Without getting into too much detail, we do have information that indicates that Russia is already working actively to create a pretext for a -- for a potential invasion, for -- you know, a move on Ukraine.
In fact, we have information that they pre-positioned a group of operatives to conduct what we call a false flag operation, an operation designed to look like an attack on them or their -- or Russian-speaking people in Ukraine, again, as an excuse to go in. And we already have, in addition, indications that Russian influence actors are already starting. They're already starting to fabricate Ukrainian provocations that -- in both state and social media to, again, try to justify in advance some sort of pretext for incursion.
This was earlier alleged by the telegram site "general SVR" on December 22, 2021
- (and further, on general SVR2 reserve channel, January 3; back on main channel January 19; and On Jan 26, with "preliminary invasion date" of Feb 20 -22. Although there are a number of things on those days (maneuvers, end of chinese olympics, Red Army day, it would take Ukraine to attack for a response; and it can only happen if it is externally engineered. Or, it will be at random time like an earthquake, because things are not really in order --Resup (talk) 01:27, 29 January 2022 (UTC)).
The site publishes a mix of stories which can't possibly be true, commercials for cryptocurrency and such, stories which claim unprecedented level of insider access but are unverifiable (and could be conjectures wrapped up as insider information), apart from being alternative versions of news items. The site is closely related, if not identical, to Valerii Solovei, who has some academic and diplomatic credentials, and yet claims to be working for some secret society, which is so secret and powerful that has not got a name.
- There is also youtube channel, with main figure, unknown, not Valerii Solovei, and kickback, Sergei Zhirnov, ex-KGB, who emigrated to France in 2001.
However, if those sources information about Russia's plans to pre-emptively attack Ukraine are true leaks, it is highly unlikely that those sources (which publish such type of stuff on a regular basis) would be tolerated, (as something which is much less apparently is not).
Moreover, it is unclear why to manufacture a false flag if ceasefire violations, killings and maiming of soldiers and civilians, destruction of property, etc, occur daily, from 2014 to this day. --Resup (talk) 01:43, 15 January 2022 (UTC)
BBC woke up to say that Kremlin will install Muraev as head of Ukrainian pro-Russian puppet government ---I don't think so. (Is Russian pro-Western non-system opposition groomed to lead pro-Western puppet Russian government?) --Resup (talk) 23:07, 22 January 2022 (UTC)
In response, RU FM via TASS: We call on the British Foreign Office to stop provocative activities, stop spreading nonsense and concentrate on studying the history of the Tatar-Mongol yoke" (I am not sure why it's here, not on the page on Kazakhstan) --Resup (talk) 01:32, 23 January 2022 (UTC)
More "attack dates"
- Putin could attack Ukraine on Feb. 16, Biden told allies - Politico, February 11, 2022
- Maria Zakharova, Telegram, February 11, 2022
- The hysteria of the White House is more revealing than ever. The Anglo-Saxons need a war. At any price. Provocations, disinformation and threats are a favorite method of solving one's own problems. The steamroller of American military-political machine is ready to go through people's lives again.
Waiting for Godot
- Chechen Rosgvardia, song and dance, Voronezh region, Russia, February 19, 2022 --Resup (talk) 14:31, 19 February 2022 (UTC)
- During Strelkov interview to Karaulov, 20 Feb, the latter suggested that some sort of important announcement is expected on Russian TV channels this Monday or Tuesday, like recognition of L/DPR, or "military-technical steps", etc. However with Macron's stuff, this does not look likely? --Resup (talk) 02:19, 21 February 2022 (UTC)
Pushilin's warning need to be taken seriously -- and he asks civilians to take cover. L/DPR forces are slowly advancing; meanwhile, reports of Russian forces possibly in Balakleya. It would be too easy to shell Ukrainian-held, pro-Russian cities and blame Russia/L/DPR. But also, for families, relatives of those killed, it would not really matter, no investigation is going to resurrect anybody --Resup (talk) 12:22, 26 February 2022 (UTC)
Did TASS report this, or it was broken into? For a brief moment, it published info reproduced here, and in addition, "49 grenades" lost. Then it disappeared. Reported losses are very high, and to the tune of Gordon claims a day or so earlier. Is this cyber attack or real? Not on wayback machine. Probably unreal, in addition to "49 grenades", how do you shoot 27 planes and 26 helicopters, with only about 3 helicopters and no verifiable Russian planes downed seen on social media. There are many light and cargo vehicles destroyed but so far I have seen one destroyed tank and one damaged one. Could be a number of BTRs, on those "too big" telegram videos. Publishing human losses would be breaking the law, unless MoD does it properly. Is this cyber-attack? --Resup (talk) 15:55, 27 February 2022 (UTC)
- It was fake, TASS was broken into. Гармат is Ukrainian for cannon, not Russian for grenade. The numbers were the same as Ukr. MoD claims.
Strelkov (March 7) "splayed-finger strike". Calls for (partial/) mobilization.
Aleksei Danilov, Ukr. security and defense council: “We couldn’t tell the public that there would be a war tomorrow. It was unacceptable, because it was one of the tactics of the Russian Federation to start chaos here. We held on to the last, we prepared to the last. We clearly understood that this would happen".
Ukr. activist: I don’t know what Danilov thought, but this statement can now be easily interpreted as confirmation of the opuses of the Russian propaganda about the allegedly preparing military operation in ORDLO, which they miraculously prevented. See, that's how it will be
Western lethal weapons
- "British supplied StarStreak missile downs Russian helicopter in Ukraine"- ukdefencejournal.org.uk and The Times, April 1, 2022
- Ukraine War: Martlet Missile Fired from Starstreak Launcher (or still Starstreak, in another version of report, perhaps with greater match visually) strikes (apparently/said to be) Orlan 10 UAV; the strike itself not seen on the video), YouTube, April 10, 2022
- "Johnson and Zelensky tour near-empty streets in Kyiv" - BBC, April 10, 2022
- BJ and Zelenskii are protected by guards, with external ones armed with post-Soviet weapons; while two closest, behind, are armed with Western weapons and probably are Westerners. It is unclear why they have similar running shoes but one is helmeted and masked, while the other is not. The one not masked has at his back, instead of dogtag, text written, in Ukrainian: Russian military ship, go to hui (expletive), following well-known meme. The way it is done looks more like a Westerner trying to imitate locals, than native (but hard to be certain).
- Comment of Montyan that Zelenskii is protected by Western guards (UKUS) is noted; if accurate, the whole scene of the two walking Kiev streets comes into quite different light.
- In a week time, that Russian ship would sink
- Drawings: 1, 2, 3
- (As shown): mistook Ukrs. for Russian forces, and welcomed them, --we were waiting you so much. Ukrs gave her "humanitarian aid", while filming and softly making fun of (take this, for the Russian world, for Putin. Slava Ukraine!, while stepping on the flag. On realization, babushka returned the aid, ---my parents were dying for this flag, and you stepped on it. I don't want it [your aid]).
- Drawings depict her as Motherland-Mother.
- I think the Ukrops are first claiming to be Russian troops. This may be tactic used in cleansing operations. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 06:28, 10 April 2022 (UTC)
- Could be, but not really explicit on the video. It starts with: "O! O! Babushka is meeting us! See, with the red flag. Russian troops, are being met." The tone is ironic, and words seem to be directed mostly to viewers of their video than to babushka. But they could be saying something more misleading before the video starts.We clearly see their Ukrainian dogtags, but babushka may not see those. --Resup (talk) 07:41, 10 April 2022 (UTC)
- According to a version of events (voiced on social media, and by Venediktov), air defenses of "Moskva" (somewhat outdated, not upgraded due to lack of funding) were distracted by a drone attack and failed to intercept anti-ship missiles. A follow-up strike on Ukrainian plant producing such missiles and air defense missiles is noted. It is unclear why this plant was targeted earlier, with a word on shady business dealings. Number of deaths on "Moskva" is not known, and there is no solid info on causes of fire and detonation in the Russian official version.
- Appears to be some 112 or so sailors shown in MoD video 1, 2,3, said to be Moskva crew (hard to count, angled or partial view, did not have time for better.) Circumstances, not really clear (like why such numbers). Sailors, michmans, captains seen (distinctions).
- Said to be ship commander, capt. 1 rank Kuprin here, seen on video.
- Sinking of "Moskva" could be a watershed moment of special military operation turning into a military operation. At this point, it is still a special operation, with parallel negotiations on the cards. However negotiations appear stuck (as Ukraine is not letting go Crimea and Donbass), and do not have support in Russia, especially in military-aligned circles. Yet, there is no turn so far to a military operation (with appropriate command structure, mobilization, etc). Large role in current offensive in Mariupol is by L/DPR forces, with Kadyrov's forces videos dominating social media (the latter appear very professional and brave but not the main force of the offensive).
- Currently, multiple long-distance strikes, and in Mariupol, Ukrainian forces still present at Azovstal and nearby, while Il'icha plant is taken by Russian and L/DPR forces.
Apparently photos 1, 2, same here 3, 4, 5. Said to be leaked by "Turkish partners". It appears that photos do not exclude the official version of fire + detonation. Yet there could be a strike (eg strongly charred spot in the rear or in the area of engines exhaust pipes. Note that there is fire below, charred illuminators/openings. Comparison with rear view of Moskva 1, 2. --Resup (talk) 06:28, 18 April 2022 (UTC)
The first two missiles missed due to the electronic warfare system, however, one of the two missiles of the second salvo hit the P-1000 Vulkan twin tube directly. A 500 kg high-explosive warhead detonated, and then trash began.
- Don't know. This is in front, we do not see there on photos, AFAIK --Resup (talk) 11:33, 18 April 2022 (UTC)
- as many noted, there is no storm on the photos. Was it decided to sink it and not to tow to port? Don't know, a possibility. Noted, rescue ships nearby seen in a brief video. --Resup (talk) 11:51, 18 April 2022 (UTC)
Lavrov created diplomatic scandal by saying that Hitler may have Jewish blood (as part of a more nuanced and rounded-of statement, making a case for a need of denazification in Ukraine). It was an error to needlessly raise the matter for which there is no evidence, and which would be predictably considered an antisemitic slur. Prime case is Ukrainian attitudes towards others: abuse and torture of prisoners, silencing (intimidating or killing) political opponents, using civilians as human shields, 8 years of shelling of Donbass driven by disrespect and hatred and no valid objective. Glorifying superiority of Westerns arms to kill "the orcs", "vatniks", etc. Glorifying scenes with corpses of killed Russians, even more so of Asian descent. There is no such mode on the Russian side who think they are fighting brothers who were misled. And obviously widespread use of Nazi symbols, chants, literature at least by the likes of Azov who are nevertheless part of regular military, and calling the shots in the society by being violent and vile, intimidating others into their ways.
Lavrov's comment created danger of more weapons and other support to be sent to those.
On the basis of vidoes available on social media: it is true that "Taira" (Iulia Pavlevskaya), accused of crimes (murder), and being Azov's Nazi, was exchanged. She recorded a video thanking Zelenskii and co for arranging this. It is not true that she was exchanged for Adam Saidov, son of Murat Saidov, who is a Kadyrov's representative. According to interview with Adam Saidov, he was released shortly after his detention in Ukraine "and moved to a secure location for his safety", with no apparent connection to 'Taira' case. Adam Saidov is pro-Ukrainian (and sounds pro- peace, yet assisted Ukrainian forces as a volunter), He is not among Kadyrov's supporters. Exchanging him does not seem to make logical sense and was denied by his father and by Kadyrov. Further details of 'Taira's' exchange are not known. --Resup (talk) 01:33, 21 June 2022 (UTC)
Suspension of Kazakh oil shipments from Novorossiisk port on safety grounds was announced before Tokaev comments on non recognizing L/DPR and following Western sanctions --Resup (talk) 07:20, 21 June 2022 (UTC)
Ukrainian shelling of Donbass cities
In the past couple of weeks it occurs daily. Targets are: residential areas (viewed as hostile, and trying to create discord among civilians as well as reservists from Donbass); civilian infrastructure (electricity, water, transport); + military targets (according to some opolchenie sources, not officially verified, ammo depot in Donetsk, another in Krasnyi Luch -using Tochka U's missiles---and HQ of 1 army corps were hit; an ammo depot hit was also claimed in Ukrainian social media--without proper geolocation or verification as well). --Resup (talk) 18:25, 21 June 2022 (UTC)
3 state Union?
(Of Russia, Belarus. Ukraine). After the war, that would make economic, cultural, sense, and may include defense; and this is the kind of thing the nationalists in Russia are after. It may help resolve complicated territorial issues, say because somebody from Ukraine can potentially be in the lead of a bigger union. Certainly aggressive stance and reliance on US and NATO is not going to help to resolve complicated territorial matters; Ukraine as anti-Russia is not an acceptable to Russia option. Yet details of how a union may materialize are unclear and it seems obvious that it is not something which is realistic to negotiate with the current Ukrainian leaders (and their "sponsors"). Meanwhile, Lukasheno made a trip to meet Putin in StP (with some defense matters in the news) after skipping StP economic forum --Resup (talk) 22:17, 25 June 2022 (UTC)
I am not sure those Iranian drones will have significant military impact in Ukraine. They appear to be heavy, expensive, long range drones, which could be vulnerable to Ukrainian anti-aircraft forces, which are not suppressed, or not fully so. However, the other way around, Russian weapons to Iran, could make a difference, in case of Western military action in Iran. Closer Russian alliance with Iran is the result of Western intervention in Ukraine, which in my view is in the range from misguided to catastrophic error for the world affairs at large (in addition to being very bad for both Russia and Ukraine). Before all this unfolded, Russia was about as pro-Western as it can be, but now, possibility of alliance with the West is at best in serious doubt. --Resup (talk) 08:14, 25 July 2022 (UTC)
Ukrainian strikes on Zaporozhkaya nuc. power station
Version of opolchenie--- who know the opponent well. It is done so that Russia is forced to provide substantial air defense. Having to take it away from battlefield, and making it a target for more strikes here. Also blaming Russia for the attacks and whatever consequences, with the full and unquestioned backing by the Western media. (Already, reading Western media, it appears to be Russian attacks --on themselves, with tall tails why do so, up to as a pretext for tactical nucs. ) --Resup (talk) 21:19, 8 August 2022 (UTC)
Russian strikes on infrastructure
Russia started to target Ukrainian infrastructure, after withdrawal from Balaklaya, and continued Ukrainian attacks or threats of, all over the front lines, with overwhelming troop numbers and Western weapons and support. Major power plant in Kharkov was hit, now a dam on the Karachun river. It is said that the river flooded Ukrainian river crossings to their landing spot on the Russian side. Under circumstances, those actions may be forced, and not unseen in conflicts elsewhere, yet nothing to cheer about. That infrastructure was built in Soviet days jointly, and may be difficult to have back. People killed, "even harder". --Resup (talk) 18:30, 14 September 2022 (UTC)
Fertilizers/ammonium nitrate ? --Resup (talk) 22:21, 8 October 2022 (UTC) Apparently the driver, who could be used and in the blind Eventually, blamed on explosives in rolls of film, details of claims by now widely reported, elsewhere.
Drones attack on Sevastopol
- 2022-10-29 06:19:18 UTC 42.7431 30.8009 208° 57000 ft 306 kts MLAT 3421
- 2022-10-29 08:47:58 UTC 37.1933 16.4353 251° 57100 ft MLAT 3421
Same unreliable Western allied infowar/infotaiment sources mentioned above claim that a peace proposal is now made to Russia which will require Russian forces to leave Ukraine and demilitarize Crimea, in exchange for non-NATO promise for 7 years. + Some Western official statements, which are not detailed, yet not in contradiction.
It is noted that independent patriotic Russian commenters are either questioning the wisdom, or critical, to varied degrees, of the Kherson pull-out.
It is also noted that human cost of the operation is high (in lives lost, affected, disrupted), while chances of achieving its goals with methods seen so far leaves room for some questions. --Resup (talk) 20:38, 11 November 2022 (UTC)
On Nov. 16, Katia Gubareva, a pioneer of the Russian Spring, and since recently a part of Kherson region administration has been arrested on economic charges. That happened after her husband, who volunteered as a private for the front line service, was highly critical of Kherson withdrawal. Details of the charges and their merits are unknown, but happily she has been now released from custody. It also emerged that she was shell-shocked by a HIMARS missile explosion near the Kherson administration and was receiving medical treatment, which explains her being absent from work for some time. (Was about to comment earlier, but the situation appears sorted, more or less. )--Resup (talk) 08:44, 18 November 2022 (UTC)
Western main battle tanks
(In addition to Ukr. news main page, 19-25 Jan 2023). (Unfortunately), another escalation, with Western main battle tanks set to arrive. There seem to be nothing to stop sliding into very dangerous proper war. Sending tanks in particular, bad idea, in many ways. Even if Ukr manage to succeed enough for that to look as a victory, there is serious danger for things to go way out of hand--as words or actions short of that seem to have no effect on the actors driving the conflict. In reality, and perhaps after some painful setbacks, the Russians will manage to neutralize the new threat. Yes, those tanks can defeat Soviet analogs, especially if it's in Iraq, etc. But not ATGM , IED, drones, etc. 'Kornet' may be sufficient of get improved; Lanzet probably too light, but a better version is only a matter of time. Eventually, when the armada is neutralized, it will remove invincibility in lesser conflicts, likely without game-changing in Ukraine. And that heavy, expensive, and rather old weaponry is not easily replaced or upgraded to meet new challenges. It's role may be prolonging the agony/stalemate/whatever you call it --Resup (talk) 05:00, 26 January 2023 (UTC)
- PG-7VR -RPG7 (inexpensive).
Has the West lost already?
The West Has Lost Already =Gonzalo Lira
This is a creative, and attractive to the Russia side piece, certainly. And, intentionally or not, it creates some cushioning in case of more Russian territorial losses. But it seems to be only partially true. Yes, on 'tactical and operational' levels, the cost to the West is quite high, in inflation rate, disruption of trade, maybe some dedollarization. But, Russia did not stop. or significantly reduced, export of natural resources, it just redirected, or will redirect, to different parts of the world, possibly at a discount. This creates a disturbance in the markets, but as amount of worldwide resources on sale did not significantly change (or not due to unilateral actions of Russia), the effect of this is limited in the long run ('strategically'). As for dedollarization, maybe, the watch is probably on China, but US economy is large, diverse, complex, and this is unlikely to break the US economy. Probably, some further financial and geopolitical tricks will be invented to keep going like that for awhile, without major 'perestroika'. As for inflation, it inflicts some pain to ordinary people, probably more profit to few, and increase tensions but not over a breaking point. So while dynamics is towards more negative, it is of limited effect on the battleground in Ukraine and other post-Soviet matters, in the near future. --Resup (talk) 16:19, 29 January 2023 (UTC)