Talk:Turkish Downing of Russian Su-24

From A Closer Look On Syria
Jump to: navigation, search

To Do

  • incident mapped
    • compared to 2013 helicopter incident - same area
  • Get other info, analyze/talk, etc.

list and address controversies

  • Russian jets in Turkey? In Syria?
  • Turkish jets in Turkey? In Syria?
  • west-east fire?
  • Warning sent? Received?
  • Other --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:40, 26 November 2015 (UTC)

Warning Received?

As a precedent, consider Iran Air flight 655 (IR655), blown up on July 3, 1988 by US warship. Iran Air had a policy to use a different channel than usual for emergency hailing, for whatever reason - the US claimed not to know that, the USS Vincennes used the usual frequency to warn the airliner before shooting at it, sent an unheard warning, and got no response. Seemed hostile. And they somehow didn't see the flight in their daily registry (it was there), and so followed up on their clusterfuck of inexplicable bad readings of good data, and opened fire with 2 missiles, killing about 300 civilians. In both cases, the people on the other end say/would say they never heard any warning and it felt more like an ambush. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:40, 26 November 2015 (UTC)

Still way behind, but this Hurriyet story is consistent with just such a trick here. "Sources" (Turkish) explain:
“Russia’s message to us during the Oct. 15 talks was like: ‘We use only one channel in Syria. Contact us through this channel to send your warnings to avoid problems.’ We accepted this, and we have issued all our warnings through this channel since then. As this channel is being used by the U.S. Air Force as well, warnings Turkey has made to Syria have been recorded by both the Russian air base [in Syria] and the Americans at İncirlik base [in Adana].”
Although Turkish pilots reportedly warned two Russian warplanes 10 times in five minutes while they were approaching Turkish airspace, there was no response on this special radio channel, sources said.
(implied but not likely - the message was sent on that channel)
“Despite the agreement with Russia, the fact that both warplanes did not communicate through this channel caused Turkish pilots to profile these planes as ‘Profile: Syria aircraft,’ and consider the situation a ‘serious threat’ as part of the military rules of engagement. One of the aircraft returned to Syrian airspace but the other that insisted on heading toward Hatay was downed by the F16s,” a source said.

--Caustic Logic (talk) 07:13, 28 November 2015 (UTC)

There is a misunderstanding on what the warning was about. Turkey has given multiple warnings to Russia not to bomb their "Turkmen" rebels in Syria. Russia on the other hand considers bombing the Turkish proxy rebels on the border and their arms supply routes as their prime mission. On the leaked tape we hear "You are approaching Turkish airspace. Change your heading south immediately." I do not see any reason why Russia would react to Turkish warnings about operating near the border. There was no warning given that the Su-24 had crossed the border. It could not have been as most likely the A-to-A missile was fired before the Su-24 crossed the Turkish border. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 15:56, 28 November 2015 (UTC)

Who was targeted?

They may be not exactly sure who was there. They get human intelligence information from the Syrian government, so this may affect targets. Their own prime concern are fighters from Russia or near abroad/the former Soviet Union: Chechnya, Dagestan, and "Middle Asia" republics, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan. (Inhabitant of Turkmenistan is called 'turkmen' in Russian; so after this incident some news sources started to use 'turkoman' to make a distinction; probably majority of population in Russia would be unaware there are some 'turkmen' who are NOT from Turkmenistan) --Resup (talk) 16:50, 28 November 2015 (UTC)

Who are Syrian turkmen, by Ilshat Saetov, director of Russian-Turkish studies center at the Russian state library, 30.11.2015 (Russian). Syria second largest ethnic group after Arabs, 3.5 million people. Somewhat close to those in Turkmenistan (share Turkic language, but different peoples, Middle Eastern with more Turkish Ottoman identity. They now have three mini-dialect - one - close to the Turkish and the second is similar to the modern Azerbaijan, and the third - ottoman Turkish, with many Arabic and Persian words). Mostly sunni, but some alevites and shiite. Many live in Homs and Hama (place of Hama massacre of 1982). Majority of them do not support Assad (unclear how many, or how strongly). Some joined FSA, and some al-Nusra. They also fight IS, not just Assad. Syrian government tries to control border with Turkey and so has fights with those Turkmen who joined the rebels there .... --Resup (talk) 05:01, 30 November 2015 (UTC)

US involvement?

(Link on the main page). Maybe US indeed provided navigation, but it could be fairly routine and not specific to the shoot down; decision could be still made by Turkey. For conspiracy scenario, there needs to be a benefit to do all this. If the plan was to make Russia leave (something like operation Rimon 20 from 1970's), then here it badly failed and caused the exactly opposite reaction by Russia. That would mean a huge miscalculation, basically having no clue what the effect would be. For something milder, like preventing a broad coalition, the cost of a dangerous escalation with NATO is not worth the benefit, as broad coalition was not doing too well even without this. But the end result is strengthened Russian involvement, and more military support to Assad, with a potential for a very serious escalation. If it was a Western conspiracy, I gather it badly failed. NATO presented this as something between Turkey and Russia; and it may well be, indeed. --Resup (talk) 02:08, 1 December 2015 (UTC)

Events leading to the shoot-down:

Accordingly, a high ranking US Air force general was present in Turkey shortly prior to the events, but the reason could be the anticipated joint action with the Kurds while trying to reassure unhappy Turkish 'allies' ; and perhaps visiting Incirlik Airmen supporting OIR mission. It does not appear likely it was a visit to arrange a shoot down of a Russian plane. Such decision would not be up to an air force general, or US military in general, which is under civilian control, by the president and his defense secretary, and it is a bit far fetched to think those were scheming to shoot down a Russian SU-24, kill the pilot and a marine, and show all that on youtube. But it is plausible that his presence was used in somebody insane/unstable/deeply flawed calculation. --Resup (talk) 14:49, 5 December 2015 (UTC)

Effect on trade

Several strong statements were made. It is understandable that this causes strong emotions, but hope they can approach trade with a cool head. Economic situation in Russia is not great, affecting many people who are supported from government budget; majority of them have little or nothing to do with this, but they would be the ones mostly severely affected. Income and security considerations, yes, broken friendships-perhaps not ( --and they were not such a great friends to begin with...)--Resup (talk) 17:34, 28 November 2015 (UTC)

As of 2013, Russian exports to Turkey: 25 bln dollars, 70-75% of which was energy resources; imports from Turkey: 6.97 bln dollars, according to official data --Resup (talk) 02:29, 29 November 2015 (UTC)
Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Bosporus Straits The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which entered into force in November 1994, has prompted calls for the Montreux Convention to be revised and adapted to make it compatible with UNCLOS's regime governing straits used for international navigation. However, Turkey's long-standing refusal to sign UNCLOS has meant that Montreux remains in force without further amendments (Wikipedia).

Countries who are not planning to shoot down Russian planes

WTF is going on here?

Media report: addiayar.com (Arabic), December 19, 2015 at 12:49, (as google translated) : Turkey has threatened to Russia as Stjah city of Latakia by the Turkish Third Army and occupies Latakia city within two hours with the Russian air base in Humaimam, and it will capture the pilots and soldiers at the base and the Russians control of the aircraft, if Russia has any hostile act against Turkey. Turkey said the Third Army without aircraft overrun the region and takes the defense system S-400 and S-300 defense system, and ending the Russian presence in Syria. As for the port of Tartous, Turkey, he said he was not interested because it's small and weak There is no room for major warships. Turkey responded to the words of President Putin, President of the Russian Federation, in which he said that the Turkish aircraft were violating Syrian airspace and that it can now try it.

Do not see it anywhere, so WTF is this? Something for internal consumption? 'Suicidal -maniacal' syndrome? Fake report? Somebody hacked google? --Resup (talk) 14:44, 20 December 2015 (UTC)

Another gem (same source): December 19, 2015 13:07 am (???) Turkey has asked NATO to increase the possibility of NATO air defense has, NATO has agreed to provide it by means of air defense of all kinds of Patriot air defense missiles to a variety of networks and modern to protect Turkey from any Russian air strikes on them. In contrast media in the Kremlin he said after opening the black box of Sukhoi 24 aircraft shot down by Turkish aircraft, it will appear that the Russian plane went down over Syrian territory. Then president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin may resort to strike Istanbul, hundreds of winged missiles. Also it will hit the Turkish capital of Ankara winged missiles and medium-range ballistic. These strikes, Putin appeared Siqsam Turkey and makes the most important cities have, the capital city of Ankara and Istanbul, the semi destroyers. And Putin wants revenge from Turkey because they hit the prestige of Russia has not only hit the Russian plane. It is considered that just give Turkey its aircraft orders to drop the Russian plane were not threaten the security of Turkish citizens, is touching the prestige of the mighty Russia. So Russia will strike the cities of Istanbul, Ankara, so from now until the month.

WTF? Roger. --Resup (talk) 14:55, 20 December 2015 (UTC)
That's wild stuff. It seems to be a legitimate Lebanese paper but these items have no author and not even a pretension of sources. Maybe the webmaster smoked too much green Lebanese? --CE (talk) 16:16, 20 December 2015 (UTC)
Sounds possible enough, but also sensational and short on details. Ad-Diyar I've noticed once before, reporting after the Mina "stampede" that 28 scapegoats in Hajj management were already been sentenced to death by beheading "tomorrow." That spectacular claim is also possible, but not supported by anything else. The claim is repeated, but only with that reference. So, possibly a questionable source. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:48, 21 December 2015 (UTC)