Talk:Syria news/Current

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There is a dynamic situation with fighting and accusations rapidly appearing. How and when this appears on mainpage can use some discussion. I do not plan to realy follow in real time, due to time constraints; may do occasionally if I spot something and it appears important.

But this hospital report for example, BBC (I think it was first posted yesterday). We see a guy telling about multiple strikes, showing us something which my quick guess is mortar tail fragment, and shows a building not particularly wrecked and holes on sides rather than on tops, etc. So I do not particularly believe this report , on the first look at it (also nothing can be prevented as it is a report on what happened already). --Resup (talk) 10:32, 2 October 2016 (UTC)

The propaganda war is ultra hot at the moment. Can't hurt to wait a day or two before something turns out to be real news (or not). No need to cluster our news line with fakes and misreporting. I doubt anyone will use it as their "latest rumor" breaking news ticker. --CE (talk) 11:31, 2 October 2016 (UTC)

This cannot be seen anywhere else...

4 Oct. According to Rusvesna report and photos, at 15.50 UN headquarters team site in Хайй-эш-Шахба district (Hay-ash-Shahba, robot translated as Hayy al-Hussain) of Aleppo city came under mortar shelling. 7 people were killed and 16 wounded. The aftermath, mortar shell fragments are shown.

It may be a UN team site, and somebody can be killed. Though probably no UN personnel is left in Aleppo, so it may be UN cars damaged and some unknown people killed. But still curious why is there total silence, not even discussion of whether or not it is reliable/newsworthy --Resup (talk) 07:57, 7 October 2016 (UTC)

"Hay" is district/neighborhood. Shabha is Here on Wikimapia Just north of the University, which was just shelled, killing five. I saw something with the damaged cars as part of that attack. Al Alam report mentions the 7 dead, in different areas (only 2 at the university at first, so the total went up). That was searching twitter ... it's not talked about much, in English. Nothing else about UN involvement. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:24, 7 October 2016 (UTC)
UN staff arrived in one of the districts in Aleppo, to begin the process of withdrawal of militants armed groups in the eastern part of the city, a source at the scene told Sputnik agency
--Resup (talk) 13:40, 15 October 2016 (UTC)

Debka/el Murid got a partition (zones) map ... (Somebody is learning how to do graphics, or what?)--Resup (talk) 17:00, 28 January 2017 (UTC)

Discussion

A group of ex-U.S. intelligence officials is warning President Obama to defuse growing tensions with Russia over Syria...
This may be more important than it looks. At some point, differences between Russia and Turkey looked very bad and hopeless; but the two leaders met, and a way forward was found by a miracle. In Syria, Russia is out of its depth, if solving crisis is the goal. It is caught in the midst of Middle Easter warfare, which is not one of its vital interests. While in the conflict in Ukraine, it is of vital importance to Russia, and, apart from opposing Russia for the sake of opposing it, there is no vital US interest in Ukraine. --Resup (talk) 20:36, 12 October 2016 (UTC)
  • 17 Nov. 2016. Russian blogger El-Murid (pro-Strelkov circle) : "Russian mighty strike on Aleppo clearly stalled. Russia has assembled almost all its all combat-capable fleet, added aircrafts at Hmeymim airbase, possibly again agreed with the Iranians, although behind the scenes (after a sharp Iranian demarche when angry Iranian generals openly demanded that the Russian partners shut up and not shout to the whole world about using Iranian airfield). In general, everything is ready - there is no decision.
The Kremlin was fully confident of Clinton winning and was preparing for the strike on Aleppo, trying to create a better configuration for the future painful bargaining. But Trump won - and what to do now, the Kremlin does not understand. To bomb Aleppo - to let Trump down and create problems for him talking to Putin. Therefore, for the time being it was decided to slow down, and in order to not just stand idle - to "iron" Idlib. And that is being done, but without fanaticism - field munition storages are not made of rubber , and if you still have to level Aleppo to the ground, they should be kept filled". --Resup (talk) 19:26, 18 November 2016 (UTC)

KIA

  • Animation by "Patriot" video studio (published 14 Nov 2016, and seen on Cassad on 18-th), dedicated to heroic death of Marine sergeant Andrey Leonidovich Timoshenkov, 15 June 2016. He was based at a camp near Palmyra. According to the animation, he was assisting delivering humanitarian aid to Homs province. 3 jihad mobiles attacked their convoy; 2 were stopped by anti-aircraft gun mounted on a convoy vehicle, but one attacking car kept moving. In the animation, Timoshenkov runs towards attacking vehicle with a grenade launcher and hits it before the vehicle impacts the convoy. He was gravely wounded and despite all efforts to save him died in a hospital
(see also: Russian deployment in Syria-reported deaths, 19 June 2016 entry.) --Resup (talk) 19:26, 18 November 2016 (UTC)
  • Russian national news service: two Russian female military medics killed in Aleppo will be buried in their home town of Birobidzhan. No genuine memorial photos of the ladies were seen so far, only fakes in some user comments. --Resup (talk) 18:38, 6 December 2016 (UTC)

Russian MoD TU 154 crash

"The plane did not reach the altitude and disappeared from the radars" -RIA; Kommersant, 25 Dec 2016

MOD announcement. Musicians from the Alexandrov's ("Red Army") Choir, reporters, a celebrity doctor Elizaveta Glinka (Dr. Lisa), several military personnel. on the plane. Crashed shortly after take-off near Sochi, Russia (and en route to Latakia, Syria). User comments point out wide spread of fragments, some quoting interfax say it is over an area of 15 km, repeated here on BBC service in Russian at 2:27. BBC Engl. report includes a photo with some fragments. Wide spread of fragments, if true, is significant, as it indicates mid-air explosion or disintegration. Official reports seem to favor technical problem or pilot error. TASS running updates; 10 bodies found at this point. Videos from crash at sea show many small fragments (debris spread area uncertain from those videos).--Resup (talk) 11:33, 25 December 2016 (UTC)

  • "A footage showing bright flash in the sky was published. Internet users actively discuss what does this flash signify". Rusvesna , 25 December 2016. Flash is 1 to 2 seconds long, bright (video 1)(video 2).
    • Very bright, 2 s+, on video 3 Video 3 is almost certainly fake, what is shown is Moscow bypass road, here
    • Flash above the skyline/horizon, video 4
  • Yet Russian investigators indicate that terrorist act "is not the main version": Sochi intermediate landing was not planned in advance. Only 3 people entered the plane at Sochi, 2 border guards and 1 customs official. Only 1 person left the plane, the navigator-pilot, to oversee refueling. Food was not loaded on board in Sochi. -According to a version of events here. "A source at the HQ of the recovery operation" told Interfax that "the flash was recorded 30 minutes after the plane disappeared from the radars".
  • Piloting error or mechanical problems which developed very quickly. There was one case when TU 154 turned upside down, possibly because one wing flaps ended up raised, while on the other wing they were not. There were cases of those planes going into spin. There are small fragments over quite wide area. It has to hit water at a great speed -or disintegrate in the air to begin with.
  • Media reports: there is a witness, a FSB coastguard who was at sea. He describes plane moving too slowly and nose unnaturally up, in the next moment touching water with the tail and breaking up. So far those are just words printed in a newspaper, no photos, no video interview, no other witnesses, etc. It is also said that investigators have a video recording, but it is unclear what this refers to; it may be different to anything seen so far in public domain, or one of those. Some plane fragments are shown on photos here.
  • TASS. The catastrophe happened when pilots were removing flaps. The plane was turning right and had nose up, for reasons not fully determined. It collided with water at a speed of about 510 km/h
  • Voice recorder was recovered and read. There was a problem with flaps (Rusvesna) .
--Resup (talk) 02:35, 26 December 2016 (UTC), last updated --Resup (talk) 10:49, 28 December 2016 (UTC)

Tributes

Mireille Mathieu & Les Choeurs De L' Armee Rouge : " Le Temps Du Muguet ", Oct 11, 2014

User Евгений Волков said на видео хор ВВ МВД..., но хору Александрова вечная память....

Packed stadium in Serbia, around 20K, sings in commemoration of the Alexandrov ensemble, before the start of a basketball game

Members of the NYC Schiller Institute Community Chorus sing the Russian National Anthem outside the Russian Consulate in New York in honor of the passengers, many of them members of the Alexandrov Ensemble, who died when their plane crashed enroute to Syria. Helga Zepp-LaRouche, Chairwoman, International Schiller Institute, Sunday, December 25, 2016

last updated --Resup (talk) 18:58, 31 December 2016 (UTC)

What's next?

April, 2017

Some observations. (1) The West very coherent line (USA=UK=France=...): Russia! You MUST drop support of Assad. Then you may be permitted to be part of civilized world (like a small part, maybe). The 'only problem with that', it is not going to happen like that (as unaffordable loss of face and manhood, basically--it went way too far for such a turn around). It does not help 'the Western cause' that there is no irrefutable proof of 'Assad the butcher', and what's on the table has too much 'brown-nosing' sort of smell to it for a successful sale to pretty shrewd Russian people. (2) Likewise, the Russian line is not too bright either. They did not plan to own the Syrian mess when moving in, but signs are, they may be getting deeper into it by the day, having no better chessgame plan available (like, no prospect of the US Congress to vote overwhelmingly that Crimea and Donbass are Russian, etc). OK, so deeper they go; and if that becomes another Afghanistan for them (as hoped by some, perhaps), it is not going to solve anything and will be just a much bigger mess. It is not the late 1980's and patriotic and anti-Western sentiments in Russia are much stronger. There is also more information (and understanding of real value) which cannot be easily 'voice-Americaned' one more time. Is more mess in Russia/Syria going to be good for MAGA? --Probably not, not at this time in history (more trade-disrupting regional conflicts, more extremism, less people to sell to, money spent on weapons cannot be also spent on something else, etc.).--Resup (talk) 18:42, 16 April 2017 (UTC)


Some Russian media claims that some Arab media claims that al-Bagdadi is arrested escaping from Mosul, crossing from Iraq to Syria (Engl)(Life.ru)(Rusvesna). Unsure what to make of it, almost like too good to be true feel, do not see in Western media.

Officially, "Putin congratulated Assad with 71 anniversary of independence of Syria" . (There is quite some tradition in nondemocracies for things to happen exactly on anniversaries --but may be some sort of spirit-raising gossip too).
--Resup (talk)13:53, 18 April 2017 (UTC)
“The DESI European Department Security and Information Service closely follows the story of Baghdadi’s arrested by Russians”, 18 Apr. 2017
The Information Office of the Secretary General of the DESI European Department of Security and Information announced that:
“the office had received accurate information indicating that the leader of al-Qaeda “Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi” may have been arrested in the north of Syria through a monitoring by the Syrian-Russian joint intelligence. This came after Baghdadi forcibly left Mosul as a result of the pursuit of his popular mobilization forces on April 2, 2017 and his entry to the Syrian border. The media office indicated that it will refrain from accurate information of the details of the operation pending confirmation of some of them and information still coming as a result of the accuracy of the stage and the consequences that may result from it. He pointed out that the interconnectedness of the units that resulted in the airport of hairs and the use of the chemical in Khan Shaykhun, Which is not to be attended by any Syrian team and will be limited to America, Russia and the UN delegate only may be to discuss a political settlement may be in part due to the Russian President Vladimir Putin About al-Baghdadi, which could undermine America’s credibility and shake credibility with its claims in international forums, may be relevant. Dr. Abu Said said that after contacting the head of the department Luciano Consorti and the Executive Council, who expressed great satisfaction to arrest al-Baghdadi, this helps to clarify the many things that happened in the past”
No real clarity, neither withdrawn nor confirmed at this point as far as I can tell. Some reports came yesterday, RUDAW quoting Russian FM, and some Pentagon presser; those basically were saying that they do not have any information--Resup (talk) 12:10, 19 April 2017 (UTC)
Assad: 'that's not true' (video of interview to Sputnik, 3:25. Reporter and Assad both smile).--Resup (talk) 00:54, 23 April 2017 (UTC)


May, 2017

Interesting to see whether Lavrov trip to Washington and other such moves will bring about any common ground (does not look too promising). There is a speculation in the air along the lines anticipating competition of RussiaSyriaIran vs the Western team over control of Syria-Iraq border. That in part was fueled by military exercises in Jordan; Jordan denied invasion plans. It is actually quite doubtful that one of the two main players involved will go for single-handily owning the problem. We will see. --Resup (talk) 12:01, 15 May 2017 (UTC)

June, 2017

With defeat of cities- controlling state-like IS in sight, pro-government allies and Russia explore stabilization force. The danger is that after IS defeat, it may turn into fight of Western-backed insurgency against pro-government forces and allies, never really ending, or ending by exhaustion of one of the sides (end result of this will be differently named militant Islamist entity) --Resup (talk) 07:28, 23 June 2017 (UTC)

More/sources

'Syrian Army strike group prepares for an attack on Raqqa' - Rusvesna, 20 Apr. 2017 --Resup (talk) 12:13, 20 April 2017 (UTC)

Putin-Erdogan

The meeting on 3 May 2017 (see the mainpage) appeared to show some convergence of positions on Syria, or was phrased that way at least. At the meeting, restoration of trade (formerly at 100 bln per year) was discussed, and it was announced that Russian sanctions will be lifted. (Russian patriotic opposition comments on Crimean Tatars/un-recognition of Crimea issue; no changes here, apparently). Russian sanctions were introduced after Russian military plane was shot down (talk)) by Turkey.--Resup (talk) 12:23, 4 May 2017 (UTC)

I can't believe that it was very harmonic behind the scenes, given what has happened the previous week and how the US and Russia both backed the YPG in their respective zones of influence. I imagine Erdogan had to at least verbally abandon his wacky plans to conquer Raqqa to get such a nice surface meeting with Putin. And today we see the Turks playing nice with both Iran and Russia at Astana. Erdogan seems to know that the alternative is the no-fly zones he long begged for, only that it is him that isn't allowed to fly. I'm quite confident that we will see less Turkish troublemaking in the near future, but the guy just isn't a rational actor. --CE (talk) 18:48, 4 May 2017 (UTC)

Flynn

Re Turkey & Kurds operation, Would be nice to have his version of events but there won't be public comments because of the investigation(s). Can be less than what it looks like, he had some lobbying or consulting business in the past. For a military operation of any sort, they needed to review all available information, including intelligence --which they likely did not have fully at that point, diplomatic implications, etc, review all that and do planning, etc. Quite likely, they were not ready to approve, and so they did not. That could be the reason, not a monetary incentive (which could be for past and completed work). --Resup (talk) 12:28, 18 May 2017 (UTC)

Raqqa airstrike

US shoots down Syrian plane, June 18, 2017

Ja Din is near Resafa, road intersection on SAA way to Raqqa, in competition with the Kurds (warfare over there is by roads, they say...). Can go to Der iz-Zur via that intersection too.--Resup (talk) 02:17, 19 June 2017 (UTC)

Twitter roundup: Jadin was reported captured by SAA - implicitly from ISIS - in the hours before the incident, as well as the village Al-Easawii, almost up to the Resafa crossroad. It was this pinnacle of alarming advances in just a few days that the US coincidentally was forced, absolutely forced, to cause them some pain, and maybe signal that they need to slow down. tweet with map of advances vs. JaDin) However, http://syriancivilwarmap.com/ shows both SDF and SAA expanding past what Peto Lucem shows - generally pushing east along the deconfliction line. [tweet While Ja'Din is roughly on that line, by this it should be in SDF's expasion area. So maybe there were crossed wires as the SDF tried to cut the SAA advance, and the SAA wound up liberating it from them, thinking it was ISIS? Prior reports of SDF capture of any clashes may be around, but not located yet. --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:19, 19 June 2017 (UTC)
But this is not the same issue as the bombs dropped later, around 6:45 pm. Clearly, any bombs dropped "near SDF forces" would also be somewhat "near" ISIS forces, and SAA. The important question is who were the bombs dropped ON? The statements so far remain unclear about this. --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:19, 19 June 2017 (UTC)

The anti-government SOHR agrees with pro-government sources - the jet was hit over "al-Resafa" south of the deconfliction line, and not targeting SDF forces, but ISIS ones, and the pilot's fate remains unclear. (cited in"Mistakes" Behind 4 US Attacks on Syrian Forces, which includes this incident with three others.) --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:15, 19 June 2017 (UTC)

Preparations for Turkey's Afrin operation?

Bagdadi, killed or not?

  • Alsumaria News / Nineveh, said a local source in Nineveh province, on Tuesday, that the organization of "Daesh" announced in a very brief statement about the death of its leader , known as Abu Bakr al - Baghdadi and spoke near the declaration of the name of the "new successor", referring to the organization called on its militants to continue what he called "stability in the strongholds", July 11, 2017
  • Independent from IS another similar organization is declared with a capital in Tal-Afar, Nineveh Governorate, Iraq (map), -RIA, referring to Iraqi channel Alsumaria, 13 July, 2017
  • Iraq denies killing suspected al-Baghdadi, Alarabiya.net, 16 July, 2017 robo-translation
  • The last article is referred to by TASS (saying that he is not hiding in Raqqa, while robo-translation suggests that he does, tenderness city is, I believe, robo-version of Raqqa): The leader of IS Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is alive and hiding in Syria. This was stated by the director of the Intelligence and Counter-Terrorism Operations Service of the Iraqi Interior Ministry Abu Ali al-Basri --Resup (talk) 16:41, 16 July 2017 (UTC)
  • 'New clues bolster belief that ISIS leader is still alive — and busy with a chilling new mission' -WaPo, May 19, 2018
    The operative said Baghdadi — a university professor before becoming a terrorist — and other top leaders decided early on to prioritize the indoctrination of children and recruits. Wikipedia says that he has BA, MA, PhD in Islamic studies (or education) from the university of Baghdad, and gives his occupation as either Islamic cleric or administrative work (secretary). Apart from a claim on leadership and desire for indoctrination, there seem to be no other evidence of making him a professor (apart from this current wapazonomy). --Resup (talk) 18:50, 20 May 2018 (UTC)
    The gathering near the city of Deir al-Zour was called by Baghdadi personally to discuss rewriting the terrorist group’s educational curriculum...“Several top leaders were present, as well as the curricula committee, which I headed,” the captured officer, known as Abu Zaid al-Iraqi, said in a videotaped statement aired on Iraqi television.

Raqqa

  • Before the war, apparently quite multicultural (Sunni, Alawi, some Christians, some Armenians), all apparently coexisting quite well
  • IS days, a quite strict version of Sharia
  • in Oct 2017:
    liberated,
    (NY Times) captured
    (BBC): falls to US-backed Syrian forces
  • Thereafter, --(?)--- (to be seen).

--Resup (talk) 19:57, 17 October 2017 (UTC)

The plan is that the Raqqa Civil Council takes over, which has been formed months ago already and consists of local figures of all parts of society. Modeled after Öcalan ideology. I guess it also elected their local council heads at the recent "Rojava" election. We'll see how this pans out in the broader context. So far, in places like Manbij this kind of government seems to work pretty well. --CE (talk) 20:17, 17 October 2017 (UTC)

Chinese?

More pronouncements on Chinese commandos, becoming a sport already (see also main page)--Resup (talk) 02:15, 1 December 2017 (UTC)

Russia's next steps?

Presidential elections in Russia, March 2018, so it's nice if things are nice'n' presentable, but if not, no matter. With this, some extra want for diplomatic resolution (But with things as they are, more nasty games from the Western partners instead are likelier. Those can deliver some paint, but no change; more chaos does not count). Internally, some figures are strongly opposed to the war in Syria, but this is a given, compartmentalized, and near-term of near-zero practical consequence. --Resup (talk) 19:30, 30 November 2017 (UTC)

On troops withdrawal, loosely based on Strelkov-Kalashnikov, which I am yet to see in full, and go by posted summary. (1) There is not supposed to be Russian troops on the ground to begin with, but it is believed that there are private military contractors (PMC (eng)/ChVK (Rus) 'Wagner', etc). Troop withdrawal then may be uncorrelated with actual boots on the ground, and it is hard to know exactly (there are ChVK losses, as per source). I have not seen solid numbers, either way (2) Airbases will be kept so some MoD troops need to remain (3) as per source, those in power 'would not want to fight Israel', which they say 'is about to enter the war'. This claim is probably based on emotions + populism as expressed, but it is of course correct that Iranian presence + supply route to Lebanon creates dangers of external actions. However there is no recent change here, and developments are more likely related to internal Russian politics, elections, 'home for Christmas' stuff , not to an imminent and non-routine Israeli actions. (It is observed that the source failed to cheer up the announcement, despite being against involvement in Syria in general) --Resup (talk) 17:30, 13 December 2017 (UTC)

Rex Tillerson address at Hoover

Mr. Tillerson is a professional engineer, who said that "Assad gassed his own people" (in 2013, and in 2017, Khan Sheikhoun). So obviously either ourselves or him is making a mistake, by laws of Aristotle's logic. Otherwise, main trust is for a political settlement (via UN/Geneva, Astana not mentioned), while making a case for continued US presence (webcast). --Resup (talk) 20:24, 17 January 2018 (UTC)

It's always surprising how these people can chain one falsehood after another for large amounts of time. This was a totally useless appearance where he repeated all stereotypes and said nothing about the pressing issues at hand - how can Erdogan stunningly ask NATO the day before to protect Turkey from the US and he doesn't address any of it? Well, in these closed circles it's rather easy, as long as the only one who asks you questions is Condoleeza Rice, of all people. What a waste of time. *rolleyes* --CE (talk) 20:36, 17 January 2018 (UTC)


'Olive trench'

Regarding Russia non-preventing this, all the usual 'we live in real world' stuff may apply, but I have this take on it. Russia is initially in Syria on Obama invitation to fight IS (twisted as it was), according to Strelkov. Whether his source is accurate or not, it is clear that making friends with USA has been substantial part of Russia's rhetoric and diplomatic efforts, in pursuit of various short and long term vital interests. It is hard to defend against the claim that efforts to mend relations failed; at least this is pretty accurate as of this day. In this setup, Kurds became part of US agenda in Syria, and their strong defense by Russia overwhelmingly implausible (and not only on the military side of it). This is rather typical in the Middle East, with smaller nations getting in geopolitical crossfire between big powers on a regular basis, USA and USSR backing opposing sides, etc (more gwalt on recent events on MoA)--Resup (talk) 07:39, 22 January 2018 (UTC)

It appears, as I suggested elsewhere (ahem), that the Turkish incursion into Afrin using majority insurgent fighters has removed much men and materiel from South-Eastern Idlib resulting in the SAA making significant battlefield gains. It may be the failed Turkish column to South-East Idlib was intended to relieve the expected SAA pressure on Turkish Foederati such as HTS. --Charles Wood (talk) 13:32, 1 February 2018 (UTC)

Blogs, etc

  • Курдам никто ничего не обещал ("Nobody promised Kurds anything", = Donbass -themed sarcasm critical of Russia)- karaul.net, 22 January, 2018
  • Cassad re-posted MoA ('a pro -Russki piece of our American partners ' ? ) ;a user comment to that: "Ставка на американский империализм не помогла иракским курдам. Не поможет и сирийским." тут как бы продолжение отсутствует: "Ставка на российский олигархат не помогла Ассаду, раздербанят его страну турки, США и рос.олигархи " (The bet on US imperialism did not help the Iraqi Kurds. Nor will it help the Syrian ones" -- There is no continuation here: " The bet on the Russian oligarchy did not help Assad, his country will be razderbaned (torn to pieces for on own interests) by the Turks, the US and the Russian oligarchs)
--Resup (talk) 10:20, 22 January 2018 (UTC)
  • Ehsani2 has a thread on (failed) negotiations between the Kurds and the Syrian Government prior to the invasion. --Charles Wood (talk) 00:43, 23 January 2018 (UTC)
Manbij?
US advisers?
  • Facebook post aleging that 2 US advisers were killed in Afrin was made by "Syria above all" in Arabic on 22 January, 2018. It is not confirmed and may be fake. However various versions of that, with locations in Afrin or Manbij, were posted on social media, including mentioning in Cassad's "Day Five" update. (On the issue of faking in wartime as such, see Sun Tzu's Art of war , 5 century BCE).
--Resup (talk) 03:53, 25 January 2018 (UTC)

OIR Spokesman, 26 Jan. 2018. Reports of two US-Coalition members killed in Afrin are FALSE. Completely UNTRUE. --Resup (talk) 12:07, 26 January 2018 (UTC)

Formal

--Resup (talk) 22:42, 22 January 2018 (UTC)

Assad drives to Ghouta

This is what bodyguards look like.

Cassad on Assad:

Having very mixed feelings, propaganda in its pure form, yet interesting photo-visuals and character evidence, or appearance, despite being a very different character geopolitically. Right here, if he is such a nice dude as it looks, why is that they can't all just get along (but obviously they can't). --Resup (talk) 22:44, 18 March 2018 (UTC)

I like playing 'spot the bodyguard' - the obvious ones and the not so obvious ones. He had one obvious close-in one with tan uniform, backpack and gun. And there were a couple of armed perimeter defence ones in green uniform. But the usual grumpy looking guys paying no attention at all to Bashar seemed (mostly?) absent. Typically I count at least 5 on these occasions. --Charles Wood (talk) 23:06, 18 March 2018 (UTC)

Cassad readers decided to play the same game too...I saw the obvious one, the tan hat mustaches; there is at least one and likely two similar-looking heavy-set guys both in blue shirts and a wire on the right year; and towards the end of the last video, a black shirt with a gun, stressed a bit and guarding, like, the unattended chairs --Resup (talk) 00:19, 19 March 2018 (UTC)

This is what bodyguards look like. :) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 01:02, 19 March 2018 (UTC)

Deir ez-Zor, again

'US and the remnants of IS prepare an attack in the Syrian Deir ez-Zor -Rusvesna, March 26, 2018 (demand for the SAA to leave east bank was made by rebel commanders) --Resup (talk) 13:14, 26 March 2018 (UTC)

UN vote, April 2018

Reaction

WW2-themed user comment on UN vote youtube video: fatabazuka​1941: the Soviet Union was not attacked by the Germans alone ! All Europe was there!!! Have you already forgotten ??? Total population of Germany will not be enough even for 26% of the front line (meaning WW2) (НА СОВЕТСКИЙ СОЮЗ НАПАЛИ НЕ ОДНИ НЕМЦЫ! ТЕМ ВСЯ ЕВРОПА БЫЛА!!! ИЛИ УЖЕ ЗАБЫЛИ??? ВСЕГО НАСЕЛЕНИЯ ГЕРМАНИИ НЕ ХВАТИЛО БЫ ДАЖЕ НА 26% ЛИНИИ ФРОНТА.)

Earlier, Vladislav Surkov wrote an op-ed piece, talking about 100's of future years of Russia going ahead alone; his fierce 'patriotic opposition' critics kept criticizing him for such a result but with some sense of inevitability, and not giving up (despite the economic hardship and military threat), more like moving to the front line and doing a better job at it than Surkov; but that would be even more opposing the West and Soviet-like, not more pro-Western. --Resup (talk) 09:17, 11 April 2018 (UTC)

  • The Loneliness of a Half-Blood, Vladislav Surkov, globalaffairs.ru, (RBC summary), 9 Apr. 2018
    From the (20)14th year onward, an indefinitely long new era, the 14+ era, in which we will have a hundred (two hundred? Three hundred?) years of geopolitical loneliness...

Twitter

OK, my snarky entry plan failed. --I guess it is somewhat similar to twittering seen at the height of North Korea tensions. --Nothing non-obvious for me to say, at this point. --Resup (talk) 13:18, 11 April 2018 (UTC)


Empire to Empire: Op-eds

Russian contractors killed in US-led coalition strike

Moved to Talk:US airstrike on ISIS Hunters, February 7, 2018

Media Troopers?

'A convoy of Russian special forces arrived in the western countryside of Palmyra on Saturday evening after traveling from the coastal city of Jableh, ...etc....--a military source in east Homs told Al-Masdar News' These soldiers from the Russian special forces will be tasked with advising the newly formed 5th Legion of the Syrian Arab Army...

Weird. Too much info? A media attack? --Resup (talk) 03:00, 13 February 2017 (UTC)


'Farewell speech'?

--Resup (talk) 15:21, 2 March 2017 (UTC)

More provocations planned?

This article quotes a Syrian mukhabarat source, to tell that they intercepted communications about further near future provocation plans, attacking UN humanitarian convoys, and using prepared artillery or shell fragments to blame Syrian goverment side, and to draw USA into the conflict. (How much is this for real, hard to say; advance warnings of such sort posted on Russian sources are not particularly unusual; warnings of course are given to prevent it from happening, not as a prophecy ) --Resup (talk) 08:36, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

Alleged false-flag event filmed by Aljazeera: -- Petri Krohn (talk) 04:37, 5 May 2017 (UTC)

I'm generally skeptical of these stories, but in this case they are unusually specific, that's why I put them on the news. European country, to be released before Sunday? C'est la France, n'est-ce pas? --CE (talk) 09:30, 5 May 2017 (UTC)
This report in the Guardian indicates that a "Whitehall source" expects "Assad" to launch another chemical attack after the UK general election on 8 June, when it is expected that an increased Conservative majority will ensure that a vote for war with Syria will pass the House of Commons.

Ambassador Yakovlenko understands the situation perfectly:- It has to be borne in mind that the British Foreign Secretary recently hypothesized on joining another US action in Syria in response to another chemical incident, which means that an order for it has already been placed. Pmr9 (talk) 11:26, 5 May 2017 (UTC)

Tony Blair: I'll be back. --Resup (talk) 11:42, 5 May 2017 (UTC)

Another/renewed warning, real CW kept in a building in Arih, Idlib , "Assad" threatened to attack on May 1, "Putin", right behind, "specialists consider 12 May most likely day for provocation" (top of the section comment applies as usual, -no prophecies in here pls; this all is getting too often, crying wolf sort, as if it is not insane out there already) --Resup (talk) 19:16, 11 May 2017 (UTC)

Sources

Interview starts with Lavrov blaming US failure to separate Nusra and 'moderates', and US failure to have rebels follow their side of the agreement on the withdrawal from the Castello road , for the diplomacy now being 'on the pause'
I think you’re looking at three people, four people in the administration who have all argued for use of force, and I lost the argument.
Noted: The leak audio appears to place the blame on lack of use of force on the Republican-controlled congress eg McCain-Graham
Recently captured buildings (including 'Mercedes', called so for its shape), fighters firing positions, rebel tunnels, hell cannon, etc. Interviews with soldiers (some from National Guard, some are former civilians, drafted in the Army awhile back and still fighting. Address the camera with promises of victory and going home after that, etc. Superb singing in the end.
Quoted in: 'How the US Armed-up Syrian Jihadists', Alastair Crooke, Consortium News, 29 Sept. 2016
A group of ex-U.S. intelligence officials is warning President Obama to defuse growing tensions with Russia over Syria...
--Resup (talk) 00:22, 12 October 2016 (UTC)
  • Rusvesna: Iranian-backed Hezobollah claims that northern half of Eastern Aleppo was liberated, Sheikh Khader and Sheikh Faris districts taken by SAA and allies, posts updated map. This is not seen reported elsewhere though; image search of map does not give something useful --Resup (talk) 11:34, 28 November 2016 (UTC)
  • Rusvesna: Iranian-backed Hezobollah claims further significant advances in Aleppo--map; (unverified/untrusted initial source) --Resup (talk) 18:26, 6 December 2016 (UTC)
As things are going atm, advances in Aleppo are more likely true than not. PetoLucem is quite conservative with his map update so gains shown there are most likely true. I didn't copy his comment on the latest one "#Syria's 2nd largest city will most likely be fully secured before 2017", although I hope it comes true. Curious item just out on Firat News Agency: Many Turkish soldiers dead after intensive airstrikes "of unknown origin" north of Al-Bab. They are, while partisan, usually not making stuff up. We'll see how this develops. --CE (talk) 10:42, 7 December 2016 (UTC)

'Mass desertion from the ranks of the "Qusd" (SDF) militia near Raqqa' (in Arabic-use robo-translation; tenderness is robo-translation of Raqqa) -eldorar.com, 13 August , 2017. Russian version here. --Resup (talk) 06:33, 19 August 2017 (UTC)

4 Oct, 2017. Rusvesna quotes a Mukhabarat source claiming that sometime in September Syrian special forces attacked what they say was a resupply IS convoy near al-Tanf, and captured some 'high ranking' militants and some 'US made supplies' (Halal food on photo, airdrop hardware claimed), FWIW. (robo-translation). It is next to impossible to know is it true or constructed, no names, no convoy photos, some US made Halal ration photos (hardly a museum-worthy rarity), and more photos showing some unidentified or not well visible stuff. They seem to be saying that they got some prisoners, though, and those are willing to talk, FWIW (which is a bit double-edged, treatment of prisoners, etc), yet good to know, maybe swaps, etc. --03:13, 5 October 2017 (UTC)

TV Zvezda,TASS, 11 Oct. 2017 (Official US response has not been received, so far) --Resup (talk) 12:32, 11 October 2017 (UTC)

Reuters reports the story (dated Oct. 11, 2017 / 5:25 AM), not providing (clear or official) refutation. --23:32, 11 October 2017 (UTC)

Suggestion for Syria news trawling by CE, myself, Resup, others: https://en.insidesyriamc.com/ I'm not sure how good it is (some spots anyway, not great), but they run a number of stories daily. I had an involved person ask for some promotional help, so I'm suggesting it as a general source, FWIW. --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:46, 15 October 2017 (UTC)

Added to newsfeed list. Current items are mostly "according to" sources I monitor anyway, but I'll keep an eye on it. --CE (talk) 07:25, 15 October 2017 (UTC)

Western

  • 'Syria government 'producing chemical weapons at research facilities' - BBC, May 4, 2017.
    Syria's government is continuing to make chemical weapons in violation of a 2013 deal to eliminate them, a Western intelligence agency has told the BBC. A document says chemical and biological munitions are produced at three main sites near Damascus and Hama. It alleges that both Iran and Russia, the government's allies, are aware.

Videos

Channel 4 Aleppo, Up Close with the Rebels, Oct 9, 2016

Vanessa Beeley: Channel 4 removed this video after complaints regarding their terrorism apologism and promotion of Nour Al Din Zinki, terrorists responsible for the beheading of 12 year old Palestinian child, Abdullah Issa.

'Fierce fights in historic Aleppo', report and video, 1 Oct. 2016, Kurdistan-Insider.com and ANNA news.

City fighting near ancient Citadel video, 'Old Aleppo. Fight in Azazi', ANNA news, 29 Sept. 2016; (English captions).

Хандарат. Нелегкий путь домой / Handarat. The hard way home, ANNA news, 24 Sept. 2016

Блокада боевиков в Алеппо восстановлена /The blockade of terrorists in Aleppo restored, ANNA news, 4 Sept. 2016

Подвиг героев Аль Кинди / Heroes of Al Kindi Hospital, Anna News, 11 Oct. 2016

Бои на юге Сирии: Провальное наступление проамериканских боевиков (Fighting in the south of Syria: The disastrous attack of the pro-American militants) -Rusvesna, 27 Jun. 2017. Starts with osoud al sharqiya logo, Lions of the East Army, FSA-affiliated.

6 August A user calling himself Russian Punisher‏ @GentleWarior reposts Amaq News Agency video, 18+ Air strikes of the #US Coalition: dead and wounded children in Raqqa . This video is also used (rightly or wrongly) in media to illustrate white phosphorous use by the coalition in Raqqa. --Resup (talk) 19:41, 6 August 2017 (UTC)

Photos

  • Russian sappers demining in Aleppo, Cassad part 1, part 2, Dec. 30 2016 and Jan. 2, 2017
  • Work of the "Syrian Express". The second half of December 2016 - the beginning of 2017. The ports of the Black Sea - Tartous. Roundtrips. Cassad, Jan. 3, 2017.
--Resup (talk) 05:46, 4 January 2017 (UTC)

Losses

Strelkov contact is with a Russian private military company (PMC) in Syria (Wagner is one such company, sufficiently publicized). Contact tells about their (and Hezbollah) significant role in fighting and significant casualties, in wounded and killed. Numbers not provided. Talks about deteriorating supplies and recruitment standards. Post was intended to discourage opolchenie from joining Syrian PMC. The contact is returning to Syria after being wounded, regardless. --Resup (talk) 17:13, 24 May 2017 (UTC)