Talk:Russian deployment in Syria

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...and Russia

Moved from Talk:Syrian Government Forces

According to a Turkish source, "Six MiG-31 fighter jets from Russia have landed in Damascus, in partial fulfillment of a protocol signed between Moscow and the Syrian regime in 2007" [1]--Resup (talk) 19:53, 16 August 2015 (UTC)

It is said that a group of Russian pilots and planes are expected to begin arriving to a government-controlled part of Syria. It is expected that they will play a role in countering IS. [2]--Resup (talk) 14:20, 1 September 2015 (UTC)

Apparently the MiG-31 delivery was denied by Russia (edit: here), at least that is what seems to be consensus on this German blog. But they spotted a modern BTR-82A on the Syrian battlefield and discuss that a Russian warship with military vehicles on open deck was spotted southbound in the Bosporus on August 20. The latter site has a list at the end of this article which suggests that there is something to the frequent "Syria Express" from Russia to Tartous sources like Syria Perspective are bragging about. --CE (talk) 18:59, 1 September 2015 (UTC)

More on the topic here: New evidence proves Russian military directly engaging in Syrian Civil War - 29 August 2015

Kerry was concerned by reports of Russian involvement, called Lavrov. Kerry said that this can lead to escalation, and possibly clash with Western anti-IS coalition. Contacts on the issue will continue. Also in the same article: Putin said that participating in hostilities is not currently on agenda, but Russia provides Syria with quite significant assistance, including equipment, training of military personnel, weapons. Speaking about the support of Syria's weapons, Putin sai that we are talking about contracts signed some 5-7 years ago. "We are fulfilling all of them in full" [3] [4]--Resup (talk) 13:07, 6 September 2015 (UTC)

Russian aerial campaign

Discussed on Russian Airstrikes in Syria page.

Mig-31s? (In response to earlier reports which were not accurate with respect to plane model): There is a curious old article by Kommersant, a respected Russian business journal. [5] It refers to 'multiple sources in miliary-industrial complex' for information that a contract was signed to deliver five Mig 31 to Syria. Production of Mig 31 was halted in 1994 for economic reasons. The head of the federal industrial agency of Russia at the time, confirmed that there is an export contract, but declined to name the buyer. Assistant director of Mig Vladimir Vypriazhkin confirmed that export orders 'have started to appear', and that they offer Mig 31 as a 'trade-in' deal to those countries who have Mig 25. At the time, Syria and Libya had Mig 25, and India stopped using it for wear and tear reasons. Komersant reminded that Iran will also benefit, since there is mutual defense treaty between Syria and Iran (still in force by 2012, and likely in force today). Mig 31 was designed to counter cruise missiles in particular, and can be armed with long-range missiles. Unsure what happened to the contract, perhaps put on ice on Israel objections. Maybe it is attempted to revive this now after the Iran deal. --Resup (talk) 02:26, 2 September 2015 (UTC)

Fall of Mosul

This is what I wrote on Facebook on June 11th, 2014, right after the Fall of Mosul

Roadmap to #WWIII – or how to avoid one.
The United Stated and her European minions will now be asked the question:
  1. Whose side are you on? Are you with the Islamic State in Iraq and the Leviant, formerly known as Al-Qaida in Iraq or against them?
  2. If you are against ISIS, what are you going to do about it?
If the US cannot produce a unequivocal, satisfactory and comprehensive answer, then it will be for #Russia, #China, #Iran, #Syria, #Hezbollah and #BRICS to secure world peace and stability.
As a first step Russia will have to – in cooperation with CIS, SCO & CSTO – liberate #Novorossiya, secure Kiev and pacify #Galicia.
All fronts of this global campaign of destabilization are now interconnected, Libya, Syria, Iraq, Pakistan, #Ukraine. Syria and Hezbollah will have to send military advisers to the Donbass front.

-- Petri Krohn (talk) 18:29, 15 September 2015 (UTC)

Why to 'deploy' in Syria?

Don't know but this counters Western color revolution/Maidan tactics, supporting a government in this case, unlike Ukraine, so something legally more sound. This helps to preserve a tightly managed regime which may be seen as having some affinity to present day Russia, with Russia quite clearly better of in comparison. This gives a market for weapons sales. If this weapons come to use, it will increase oil prices, a major export item. I don't think a major military engagement is an actual plan at this time, or imposing some proper order to the situation; but it may develop in one of those ways in the future, depending on how the West will play this. --Resup (talk) 10:26, 16 September 2015 (UTC)

  • Strelkov version (posted on social media,and quoting his sources) is that it was somehow arranged or encouraged by US administration to involve Russia in fighting IS, and seized upon Russia in a hope of partnering or mending relations with the only superpower. Nothing wrong so far as far as I am concerned, and at least somewhat plausible, as US knew about this in advance (according to Putin), with only muted criticism initially. Than a hat trick by Russia to make this pro-Assad, not anti-IS, sort of allowed initially, than eventually indirectly opposed with others' helping hands, leading to further deteriorating relations overall. If as described, both sides are in the wrong, I'd say. For Russia, acting out of deeply held mistrust, to the West and its own pro-Western opposition, and undercutting presumably dumb so called Western 'partner', yet hoping that some magic will emerge out of it; but no magic seems to be on horizon, apart from potentially more warfare. For the US, pretending that Wahhabis (with presentable spokesmen/graphics designer) would qualify for democratic opposition, and all the other dirty tricks from the well-known arsenal. Result of all this is going to be more chaos and lives and livelihoods lost, for the vast majority of the participants. At the moment their seem to be no developments, and no leaders, likely to significantly change such course, unless by some miracle. With new leaders, maybe, but who knows what they are really up to and how even good intentions will play out in the real world. --Resup (talk) 22:55, 9 July 2016 (UTC)
2017

Strelkov digs in, repeats on social media his old version, now in the form of a street-wiseish fairy tail running from 2000+ , telling in part that Americans asked to intervene in an exchange of an oral broken promise to settle in Ukraine.

In 2017, it became more complicated, with a lot on the ground which cannot be just undone (or justified convincingly to a broad non-converted audience). With military campaign towards its endgame, the focus becomes on what's next, not on what was behind. It is still possible to resolve gridlocks, given a desire to resolve them (or keep them, with a lack of will) --Resup (talk)

Why to withdraw from Syria?

Seems like perfect timing for such an announcement ...--Resup (talk) 19:09, 14 March 2016 (UTC)


Saudi

  • 22 July 2016. Saudi Arabia is ready to offer Russia's economic cooperation with the countries of the Persian Gulf and a major investment in exchange for Moscow's refusal to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, said the Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia, Adel al-Dzhubeyr in an interview with the Brussels edition of "Politico." -Interfax .
This went too far and will not work like that; for one thing, Russia is not to be seen as getting bribed, and it is psychologically unimaginable to just drop support after everything that happened. There may be a diplomatic wording/solution, though, once everybody gets seriously committed to finding one. Along the UN formula that it has to be decided by Syrians (what else can it possibly be?) --Resup (talk) 15:19, 22 July 2016 (UTC)

Gen. Valery Gerasimov speaks to Komsomolskaya Pravda

Summary

From new interview with general Gerasimov of Russian armed forces. Key points of interest:

"THREAD: 1. (Almost) Everything you wanted to know about Russia's military operation in Syria. Rus Chief of General Staff Army Gen. Valery Gerasimov reveals sensational details @kpru. I summarized major points in ENG:
2. Start of Russian operation in Syria in Oct 2015 was thoroughly planned. Experience of 1962 when USSR transferred troops to Cuba was studied & partly replicated. SYR operation was extremely secretive, up to 50 aircrafts flying to Hmeymim.
3. The very combat forces were transferred about a month before the start in late September. It took much longer with inventory and logistics to create the infrastructure. Use of ground forces was ruled out from the beginning because..
4. (a) Syrian army, “patriotic militias” were combat-capable despite big losses (b) primary tasks were target detection, fire damage, disruption of enemy’s control systems – airforces tailored for it better. Yet to organize management of all forces command post was set up in Hmeymim
5.ISIS was very combat competitive. Some of their commanders ex-Iraqi army chiefs, some trained by instructors from across the Mideast. Had about 1500 tanks, 1200 canonry, seized weapons from SYR & IRQ armies, used combat tactics, so weren’t just a terrorist group but a regular army
6.Before Russia entered US-led coalition was delivering 8-10 strikes a day. Rus were launching 60-70 strikes on average, the highest was 120-140 strikes per one day. Gerasimov sasy "it makes sense since their top priority was toppling Assad, not fighting IS"
7. BIG ONE: Al Tanf used to train 350 militants. Besides, there're 750 militants from east bank of Euphrates at the Kurds-controlled Al-Shaddadi camp. Virtually it’s ISIS people under names like “New Syrian Army” their goal is to destabilize Syria. US wont allow access to Rukban camp.
8. Russia still has forces in SYR capable of delivering adequate offensive if needed. Situation unstable but Russia's MAIN MILITARY OBJECTIVE in SYR now is eliminate Nusra/HTS which continues to operate in some de-escalation zones. Naval presence in the Mediterranean to be maintained
9. Most difficult aspect at initial stages of operation was to organize coordination of airforce w Syrian gov forces & “ace-deuce groupings.” There're far too many “patriotically-oriented armed units” who we urged to take the gov side.But we came to learn how to do it, now it's smooth
10. Total of 48,000 Rus soldiers & officers been rotated - most for 3 months – in Syria with 90% of divisions, more than half of regiments & brigades having served there over course of 2+ years. 200 types of weapons tested. We made giant leap in drones technology, now integral part to our military.
INTERESTING: Gerasimov reports on state of affairs in Syria to Defense Minister Shoigu morning and evening & Shoigu reports to Putin once or twice a week. Sometimes the three sit down to plan together. Gerasimov says "Putin sets goals, tasks, knows all the details on every level."
11. Russian estimates: by Sep. 2015 there’re total of 59K fighters in all ISIS groupings & they recruited about 10K more along the way after it, 2,8K - from Russia. Now IS militants going back to countries of origin. Most go to Libya, some to Afghanistan, others- to South-W Asia

References

  1. "Russia sends six fighter jets to Syrian administration", 16.8.2015, BGNNews.com, Istanbul.
  2. "Russian jets in Syrian skies", 31.8.2015, ynetnews.com, quoted by Rusvesna (Russian)
  3. Kerry expressed to Lavrov his concern about the data on the Russian military presence in Syria", 5.9.2015 TASS
  4. Readout of Secretary Kerry's Call With Foreign Minister Lavrov, 5.9.2015 State Department
  5. "Interceptors of double use-Mig 31 will defend Syria and Iran", 19.6.2007, Kommersant.ru