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After 2024

There have been some back and forth when it appeared that (in accordance with constitution limiting presidential rule to two terms) Putin may move to be at the helm of the Union State of Russia and Belorussia, or move to lead Russian State Council (with its role better defined in constitutional amendments currently being discussed). Union State role then became not very plausible, as disagreements with Belorussia on unification and oil prices emerged, and Lukashenko not too supportive. This all came to a halt with Putin's comments that strong presidential lead is needed in Russia, and dual powers are not acceptable; and that term limitations are good in the long run, possibly with some exceptions.

Thereafter, it became all but certain (1, 2) that Putin will be able to stand in presidential elections in 2024 (should he decide to do so), after Duma tightened presidential term limitations, but with the exception to the current president. This needs passing constitutional amendments and approval by the constitutional court; but realities are such that successfully completing those steps is not in a serious doubt.

In parallel, there are some steady rumors of health reasons for urgency, in particular coming from Strelkov and friends. It is unclear whether those rumors are justified; this may be a leak or disinformation planted on Strelkov people by somebody they trust; direct evidence is scarce and inconclusive-without insider knowledge, unavailable here. --Resup (talk)