Talk:Alleged Market Attacks in Syria

From A Closer Look On Syria
Jump to: navigation, search

Alleged Attacks Analyzed

Any that get serious/big enough for it might get their own page. Otherwise, these are mainly too numerous/small/generic to each get their own page, and the general patterns should be emphasized, with as much analysis as possible in one spot. --Caustic Logic (talk) 06:34, 22 April 2016 (UTC)

Most recent first:

Maarat al-Nouman market attack 19 April 2016

Syria: Regime Airstrikes Kill 40; Partial Ceasefire Collapses Democracy Now, April 20

John Kirby: "It is our understanding at this time that it was most likely regime forces, but information is still coming in.

A video shows aftermath, and hears from two civil defense (White Helmets) workers who swear it was a Russian attack (basis unclear). --Caustic Logic (talk) 07:15, 22 April 2016 (UTC)

The VDC lists 45 dead from warplane shelling in Idlib on the 19th. Only 38 are men. Doesn't seem to mention market. --Caustic Logic (talk) 06:34, 22 April 2016 (UTC)

Motive: "Syrian peace talks appeared all but doomed on Tuesday after air strikes killed about 40 people in a crowded vegetable market in rebel territory, with the opposition saying a truce was finished and it would keep out of negotiations indefinitely" (Reuters)

Note: this goes towards rebel motive to provide this reason inside their own turf. The Jaish al-Islam delegation had already decided to walk out on the talks. This is one of their stronger reasons now. The Russian/government motive, as usual, is I guess to kill the Sunnis, because they are forces sent by Satan himself. --Caustic Logic (talk) 06:34, 22 April 2016 (UTC)
For Russians, Sunni or Shiite is quite irrelevant, Chechnya and Tatarstan, major Muslim places in Russia, are Sunni, and certainly not Satan-sent, both receive serious support from the state. Russians will not bomb civilians on purpose, the only plausible theory involving them may be an error, and I do not see any real evidence even for that--Resup (talk) 09:45, 22 April 2016 (UTC)

Democracy Now notes "The market had been the site of protests against the Assad regime in recent weeks."

Unclear whether this is indeed aerial bombing, it shows messed up street level with little apparent fresh damage to buildings around. If it exploded on impact, there will be a serious crater in the street, I see none. It looks more consistent with an explosive device sitting on the ground, blowing some light stuff into a pile. 'Grad' a possibility, heavier mortar not totally out as well. There is lots of mess around anyway, telling new mess from old one based on video is guesswork at best. There are wounded civilians alright, and that is bad enough as it is, but showing them in a video sequence after market is not a proof they were hit at the market. Needs to be an investigation for any meaningful conclusion, not some sort of video production operation. Note that the claim was first made by SOHR, with poor record on reliability of claims. --Resup (talk) 08:56, 22 April 2016 (UTC)

Other earlier videos apparently show several wounded civilians shortly after a blast; no hard core stuff seen, it may be real or staged, who knows. We do not see anybody killed in that blast. We see street level damage, soot, some fires; mostly light objects thrown around, and no clear crater. So this does not look as a proper air bomb. Can it be some light-skinned, not very big, barrel thrown from a chopper? Donnow, maybe, just no reason to do it, an no evidence for a chopper. Street level explosive device still would be the best fit to what we can see. Proper investigation is of course the best idea, if this deserves credit at all. One strange thing is that exact time is not given; that can be matched against anything flying in the area at the time rather easily, but such simple yet crucial detail is strangely missing. While all background details, like motif, who is to benefit, how and when it appeared, and how convincing is the video itself are all stacked against this being real government or Russian hit --Resup (talk) 18:24, 22 April 2016 (UTC)
Market attacks should usually be at mid-day, busiest time. If this street runs north-south it's mid-day (below, location). As for a crater, hard to say. I see a few potholes, but a lot if covered with debris. A lot of digging to say either way. If we ever see the crater, we can say direction of fire, if it was a rocket/missile or I guess no direction if it was a barrel bomb, or a parked car bomb, etc. --Caustic Logic (talk) 02:00, 24 April 2016 (UTC)
More photos collected here--Resup (talk) 10:24, 22 April 2016 (UTC)
Apparently first report and immediate aftermath video appeared on Turkish Anadolu agency site (this is a state-run agency). No crater is seen. --Resup (talk) 10:54, 22 April 2016 (UTC)

Any planes or choppers? Claim made by some people on later recording. However om immediate aftermath video I cannot hear any sound of plane/chopper, and people were not running for cover as would be quite sensible during an air attack. Military planes are loud and sound stays for quite a while; and choppers are slow and would not get too far. --Resup (talk) 11:46, 24 April 2016 (UTC)

Location IMO this only matters much when and if we can make out direction of fire or something. And I haven't looked close yet, but I think it's a north-south street. When looking north is a tower. Looks like a clocktower, square-sided. One spot almost fits - here on Google Maps - only spot I see with awnings down even one side. But the tower to the north should the minaret of the central mosque, which should be rounded, white, thinner, and taller, usually. I checked Wikimapia for areas labeled market or Arabic souq. There's only one, and it's not right, a little cluster in the south. So it'll be by visual ID (right directions as the basis). If we place it. I might not bother. --Caustic Logic (talk) 02:00, 24 April 2016 (UTC)

Ariha, Idlib, 3 August, 2015

Examined at Monitor blog, here: Massacre of the jet.

War News Updates reports 27 civilians were killed and dozens wounded "after a Syrian army fighter jet crashed into a marketplace in the Syrian town of Ariha in Idlib province." Citing Reuters citing locals, they say civilians were mainly killed, and "The plane had dropped a bomb on the main Bazaar street at low altitude only seconds before it crashed,"

Accounts differ if it was shot down or deliberately chose this jet-sacrificing mission (pilot reportedly bailed out first, haha, right into al-Nusra turf.) What he did, allegedly: killed 32 men, 2 boys, no one else, as listed. --Caustic Logic (talk) 02:19, 24 April 2016 (UTC)

Idlib Market Jet Wreckage.png

A point I'd like more thoughts on - the wreckage as shown. There other images around, but I save this crop of a preview. Does that look like weathered metal, paint faded more on one plane than the other, separated at the post-wreck bend? All that in a day or so? And is that little hole consistent with shrapnel from an anti-aircraft munition? Was this suicide jet maybe shot down somewhere else long ago and then had bits just dropped here to explain the explosion and the day's batch of dead men? --Caustic Logic (talk) 02:19, 24 April 2016 (UTC)

General Discussion

Men in Markets: This has been a sticking point to many, and myself included. Traditionally, women do most of the vegetable shopping in the Arab world, but whenever we see blown up tomato carts, the dead are almost totally men and older boys. This is an issue, but maybe not as much as we've been thinking. This isn't traditional times. Whoever and why, someone keeps blowing up those vegetables. When shopping is war, who do you send? Men and boys mostly, right? --Caustic Logic (talk) 02:26, 24 April 2016 (UTC)

Big mortars Video shows some big mortars and what they can do... (this is attack on Kurds in Sheikh Maqsoud) --Resup (talk) 13:56, 24 April 2016 (UTC)