Talk:Alleged Chemical Attack Khan Sheikhoun 4 April 2017/Timeline

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This is a talk page for discussing Alleged Chemical Attack Khan Sheikhoun 4 April 2017/Timeline. For sources, claims and narratives see the main page. (To see what is hot, see recent changes)

Recent Events Context

It's worth noting this attack - blamed on Syria or Russia (unclear so far) comes just as news broke of an apparent terrorist bombing in St. Petersburg (exact timing not clear yet) - the two events possibly help explain each other - Russia getting its fair retribution, or maybe taking unfair revenge ... and then likely not. It's a thought. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:56, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

Frontlines Hama.jpg
Checked location - and the province it is in, barely in Idlib, to not look as dumb as the Pentagon. ;o) It is there up center north to see on the Hama frontline image, but it's a good chunk away from the frontlines, savely hidden behind "rebel" stronghold Morek/Mork. This comes as their annual Hama offensive has turned out to be another desaster, and as Peto Lucem wrote as description to the latest map, they lost 85% of their temporal gains. Loss of fighters seems to be massive, as the SAA by now knows how to let them come and then greet them in open field.
At this point the mad butcher Assad decides to draw a little attention to this by slaughtering some innocent kids - how typical of him! --CE (talk) 11:19, 4 April 2017 (UTC)
Clearly the local battlefield timing is probably more relevant. Obvious revenge for the recent offensive, taken out on random innocents with something pointless and criminal. Seen that before. But if this comes out as a big bad Russian sarin attack, then that Russia connection will also stand out as likely. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:35, 4 April 2017 (UTC)
Another thought, there was the third batch of green bus rides from al-Waer to Idlib on April 1, several hundred "rebels" with families. I could imagine Khan Sheikhoun would be one of the nearest "safe" spots in Idlib province to drop them when you start from Homs, and it's directly at the M5 motorway. Possible victim group of "traitors" who had surrendered to the regime? --CE (talk) 11:55, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

April 3 chlorine attack on al-Lataminah

Suspected chlorine victims from al Habit in the White Helmets field hospital in Khan Sheikhoun on April 3rd.

White helmets were reporting of a chlorine attack on Khan Sheikhoun already on the evening of April 3.

  • Dozens of cases of suffocation with chlorine gas in a rural Hama and Idlib - All4Syria, April 3, 2017 (عشرات حالات الاختناق بغاز الكلور في ريفي حماة وإدلب)
    Dozens of civilians, including children, suffered from suffocation on Monday, April 3, following inhalation of toxic chlorine gas which is delivered by regime helicopter aircraft on the city of Al-Lataminah in north Hama and the town al Habit in the southern countryside of Idlib.

The victims seem to have been taken to the White Helmets cave complex in Khan Sheikhoun. The photograph published by All4Syria is from the same treatment room where the April 4th victims are later seen. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 08:04, 13 April 2017 (UTC)

Evidently al-Habit was bombed on April 3rd. This video claims it was done by Russian aviation. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 07:24, 14 April 2017 (UTC)

Date of bombing videos?

If anyone has spare time, cool and misty conditions at dawn in the previous 6 months occurred on 2,3,4 Mar, 13,14 Dec, 31 Oct. Those days were particularly misty but there were other days not quite as misty. --Charles Wood (talk) 14:29, 16 May 2017 (UTC)

Also, are there any clues on the season from the vegetation? Does it green up in Spring? --Charles Wood (talk) 14:32, 16 May 2017 (UTC)
From what I've seen, indeed, it's rainier and greener in the spring, at least in some areas, and naturally gets drier in the summer. It's a good time of year for mist (not that I think that's what we're seeing). --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:16, 17 May 2017 (UTC)
The video from the bunker has green fields/low hills outside. I don't recall it being particularly green in the dawn videos. Anything to the contrary? Such as winter-brown grass and trees in some snippet? (I leave it as an exercise for a committed anachronist) --Charles Wood (talk) 09:39, 17 May 2017 (UTC)
Actual dampness seems unclear to me - it's likely enough, but... green fields might not be a good indicator, if they're watered whereas wild grass isn't. I haven't noticed any pattern I recall. But there's also a river maybe, and so on, that people are tracking, but... fog like that doesn't form in 15-30 minutes, does it? --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:17, 17 May 2017 (UTC)

Let me spell out the "wrong date" hypothesis:

  • On April 4 the wind was blowing from the northeast. Some chemical agent was released near the "sarin crater" and spread downwind.
  • The videos and all other data coming from the aviation monitoring network is from an earlier date, when the wind was blowing from the southwest.

I do not think the map fed to some media outlets by the White House is U.S. radar data. It looks like a set of observations from the Aviation Monitoring Center. Some, or most likely all cameramen are observers in this network. If so, this would mean that there is no independent source for the April 4th am bombing. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 16:29, 19 May 2017 (UTC)

Time of Attack?

Actually we do not even know when the Ghouta CW attack happened. There was a coordinated release of videos. They could have been filmed weeks earlier. We never saw any sign of the funerals or the grave sites. The same here, the coordinated release could have been prepared for days or weeks. One source hinted this already happened 5 days ago. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 14:25, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

Orient TV reporter Firas Karam tweets at 0:06 am GMT on April 4, 2017 (mirror)

  • "tomorrow we are launching a media campaign to cover the airstrikes on Hama country side including the usage of CW"

Translated by Within Syria‏. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 19:07, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

No, I think that refers to a second Latamna chlorine attack after the one they say killed Dr. Darwish. It's not far away though. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:34, 4 April 2017 (UTC)
Or... it was at the time, and now maybe it's this event, as discussed below ... (catching up) --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:37, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

All 10 rebel news agencies say this happened on April 4th, most with their own video. Half the world's media say this happened on April 4th. The White Helmets cave complex was bombed and partly destroyed on April 4th. Could all this happen on the same day? This is not the Al-Lataminah cave compound. If the stone wall is facing south, then the gas victims are seen 8 am in the morning, the bombed out building is shown around 5 pm. This video of the bombing is uploaded at 13:26:39 UTC, so it breaks the timeline. The Russian MoD says that the Syrian Airforce bombed an "ammunition dump containing chemical weapons" east of the town of Khan Sheikhoun. There is a stone quarry 1.5 km east of Khan Sheikhoun that could maybe be the White Helmets site. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:21, 5 April 2017 (UTC)

Alleged Bombing Video

Video of purported bomb strikes on Khan Sheikhoun uploaded 04:59 am UTC 4 Apr 2107. Local time 07:59 am. Sunrise at location is 06:14. This indicates that if image is as stated and it was uploaded on the same day the incident occurred, the strikes occurred some time between 06:14am and say 07:30am.

Russian statement also refers to strikes between 11:30am and 12:30pm local time, so a second series of strikes seems likely.

Further statements about the first attack put it at 06:30 local time - which is not implausible given the sun angle. --Charles Wood (talk) 21:00, 5 April 2017 (UTC)

The morning strikes are conventional ANFO bombs of the type used by SyAAF. These are not at all suitable to deliver a nerve-gas payload. --Charles Wood (talk) 20:18, 5 April 2017 (UTC)

Trying to time a non-event that did not happen is like asking how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?
Anyway, this video from the White Helmets compound seems to be the earliest. It is filmed just after sunrise. The upload by the White Helmets is not the original. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:56, 5 April 2017 (UTC)
That upload time is 09:14 local time so 2:45 after potential gas exposure. However as you note, this is recycled video and there are upload delays, so its closer to 06:30 - say 07:00? --Charles Wood (talk) 03:07, 6 April 2017 (UTC)

My impression is that Russia and Syria government report on what they have available, that there was an attack by their side in the afternoon. Knowing that chemical attack was reported in social media, they conjecture that rebel chemical weap. storage was hit. If chemical incident was definitely earlier, that may still be that it was provocation by the rebels (and rebels would benefit more, by far) --Resup (talk) 06:15, 6 April 2017 (UTC)

Avigdor Lieberman: the two murderous chemical weapons attacks on civilians in the Idlib region in Syria and on the local hospital were carried out by direct and premeditated order of Syrian President Bashar Assad, with Syrian planes. I say this with 100 percent certainty. The cruelest that those who were evacuated from the area of the bombing to the hospital were attacked a second time with chemical weapons as Syrian army planes bombed the hospital. To the question of whether Israel needs to respond to occurrences in Syria, the Defense Minister responded: “why do we need to do it ourselves? It’s the responsibility of the international community. I'm not ready for Israel to be the dick that the whole world pisses through. The world needs to take responsibility and, instead of just talking, needs to do something.”(source)

We are told that attacks were at 6:37 and 6:46 am. Not being a specialist, I understand that sarin symptoms develop within minutes, and those alive within several hours had low dose and likely survive ( Evacuations at dawn hours will likely take more than several minutes and people would arrive to treatment in pretty bad shape; apparently 'bombing a hospital' is matching quite freshly exposed people we seem to see on videos. However, one of those videos (selected at random) shows shadows at about 1.5, below 2, of the height. That is roughly after 8.30 am, and not close to 6:46 am with 1 to 11 shadows. That much later after exposure, it's strange (though not impossible,--wind and stuff) that those people seem to develop distress right in front of our eyes, as if it just happened and they are urgently treated. Back to Libermann, wondering what's the grounds of 100% certainty. As DM he may know exactly where the planes were, when, and that they dropped something; but for the rest, it is coming from social media, and he may not see much more than what we do. Just to make sure, I am no fan of the regime or the backers, but this by itself is not sufficient for a genuine 100 % certainty; while unjustified accusations/actions likely will not accomplish much in practice and moreover, play their hand, instead.--Resup (talk) 23:49, 8 April 2017 (UTC)

Agreed in general. The scenes at the hospital almost seem too late, tending to 7:30 - 8:00 and later, by sun (all app.) The symptoms seem mixed and largely fake, to me. One guy seems to get worse suddenly as the camera draws near, etc. (same guy is gulping for air like a fish, which is realistic, but with his mouth closed, which makes no sense (maybe to keep the "foam" in until the good camera arrived? see the early vid, first seconds - it's the same guy seen with mass foam in a quality photo from later, when the sun had broken across his face). Sarin moves very quick - in a few seconds you know how bad it is - the body breaks it down very quick and it kills quick - it's a race in microseconds - if you survive the first 30 seconds you'll probably survive, and if not... (something to that effect, I'm not sure on exact times - it could be minutes, but not tens of minutes) So I don't buy people trucked to this place, laying in the mud and wiggling an hour or so later. Besides, they all have clean underwear, little or no cyanosis, etc. I don't think the place was gassed or they were gassed here, with sarin. Maybe gassed with something else longer-acting, and a number of fakers. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:53, 11 April 2017 (UTC)
In re: Resup and the ratio of shadow length to object length (S/O). Does anyone have a link to an app where you can input date, location, S/O and get time of day? I believe I have seen a website that does that.Pierpont (talk) 14:17, 11 April 2017 (UTC)
Sorry, Denis, anyone else wondering the same. There are different ways, some more modern than what I use: NOAA solar position calculator. Move the red pin, not just the map, onto the right spot, set GMT +2, click DST, start guessing times and see what numbers appear at lower right "az/el" section. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:31, 26 April 2017 (UTC)
In re: CL and sarin timing. Yeah, here's the interesting thing: people exposed to sarin run out of O2 (anoxic) b/c their breathing muscles are paralyzed. So by the time the brain realizes it's in trouble, it's too late to gasp, or gag, or cough, or scream, or try to suck more air because all of those things require the same paralyzed muscles that caused the anoxia. So when you see WH vids of people dramatically gasping for air, the WHs are kindly providing evidence that sarin was not the cause. It's a part of their public service to Syria and internet sleuths everywhere.Pierpont (talk) 14:17, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

Haq News Agency says on its Facebook page that the attack happened at 6:55 am. The are also the source of the video that shows the explosions. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 08:52, 14 April 2017 (UTC)

6:55 is close enough I'd presume 6:46 event, reporting over minutes, Haq hears it at 6:55 and notes event as just then. Unless they have more contradictory specifics. --Caustic Logic (talk) 07:05, 1 May 2017 (UTC)

Solar reading of attack videos

I tried reading solar azimuth (direction to the sun) from how it wraps around circular things (minarets, dome), in the distance views below. I could only say it's between 82 and 113 degrees, so anywhere from sunrise to 9:30. I cannot even see a time difference between the views, unless mmmaybe ... the fog scene is a bit earlier. It should be later. But visually, it seems to all be the same basic time, so - if this is really all from the same day - those blast plumes disappeared and that fog spread out - or vice-versa? - very quickly. A strong wind could help, maybe the one seen. The direction seems about right for that.

4-4-2017 pan plumes vs fog.jpg

Next, I'll use the other view of the rightmost plume to see if it's got better shadows I can read. --Caustic Logic (talk) 07:05, 1 May 2017 (UTC)

At 0:13 on the left side are some building with lit faces we can see. That's odd. They have to have a peculiar rotation. If the FoV is from further back (north) than we thought, we might be looking at the only small patch of buildings I see in that area with a partly east-partly north orientation that could explain this (centered here on Wikimapia). Those faces run 112 on the compass, so they'd catch oblique light almost up to 9:23 am. At the moment, they appear fully in light.
On the left-most lit-up building, the little ledges that stop at the (stairwells?) seem to stick about about half as wide as the gap between them. If we take the cast shadows as being just that long (could be longer) the azimuth would be almost exactly 87 degrees here, which is 6:47 am. As those little shadows seem to run fully across the gaps, I don't think it can be any earlier than that. It could be later. Not a super-solid finding, but seems decent to me. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:59, 2 May 2017 (UTC)
The winds in all instances I've seen from the day appear to be very light. You(?) uploaded a video of stronger winds but it was from at least the day before (3 April)
The foggy picture appears marginally later in the day than the unfoggy version. This is based on the amount of illumination on the minarets - speaking which, what happened to the one the middle - essentially absent in the non-fog version. Is that an artefact of stitching? Or is the fog picture from some date prior before the minaret was demolished? --Charles Wood (talk) 07:26, 1 May 2017 (UTC)
The minaret in front of the tell is there, but the image is fuzzy for two reasons. 1) The camera takes interleaved video, but it is distributed over a non-interleaved digital channel, producing a double image. 2) The minaret seems to be in the shadow of one of the blast plumes. The later fact could help in geolocating the plumes. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:25, 1 May 2017 (UTC)
Charles, thanks. What Petri says about the minaret. He explains it better. And his note about it not seeming lit up is important. Hadn't thought of that, and it might just help.
More light visible in the fog view: That's what I was seeing too. But that's a problem here, as we look at the north side of things. We're in different hemispheres, but the same should apply in both, just reversed. The sun rises (a bit north of) east, arcs to due east shortly after rising, then south as it rises ... near sunrise (6:16-17 am), more light wrapping around should mean it's earlier, with the light still coming from north of due east. 90 degrees east was reached around 7:09 am, and the bombing scene should be 6:46, with the fog coming later, and less sunlight wrapping around, not more.
Further, I tried considering elevation, and it seems the little ridges on the minarets are a bit lighter underneat in the fog view, more shadowed in the bombing view, which says the same thing.
That seems problematic to me, because I can't easily see this fog dissipating, then a dubious bombing run, and a fresh white cloud started again ... so it could be these are different days (but filmed from the same spot - people do frequent spots), or that's a coincidental pre-attack fog, a pre-attack gas release, or ... maybe it is later, and just the abundance of light causes more wrap-around and more light everywhere, even under the minaret ridges. Although light seems less abundant, I guess as a wind roughly towards the sun blew all those smoke plumes into the path of the light.
Need to review other details of what's lit ... So far I've been saying they appear about the same time, so the changes were fairly swift. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:24, 2 May 2017 (UTC)
(continue here)

I ran with what Petri noted above - this "missing" minaret appears to not be lit up, so maybe it's in a shadow? Seemed worth checking. If we take this as app. 6:47 am, just after the last jet pass US intel claims to have tracked, the sun would be at about 87 degrees on the compass. I checked where Bellingcat placed that minaret and agree - it's the furthest north among them. Here in purple, yellow shows sunlight angle to possible big thing - quite likely triangulating the position of the leftmost, biggest, nearest, plume #1. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:20, 2 May 2017 (UTC)

4-4-2017 minaret shadow Plume1.jpg

I also think plume #2 casts a shadow on the tel, which means it must be further out on its line of sight, further south, almost west of the tel. The white cloud also seems to, just from being closer. If so, the two shadows are close, so they're close together almost on a line from the tell to the E-NE. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:20, 2 May 2017 (UTC)

You have the right idea, but you are looking at the wrong plume, the first one couldn't cast a shadow on the minaret at that time, but the second one could, and probably did(quick map). The second plume most likely comes from the "bombed house" marker east of the minaret, here are some ground photos from the same area. --Q (talk) 13:10, 2 May 2017 (UTC)
With a freshly damaged home, damaged by these bombs, you could set depth like that ... I can't vouch for it yet, but I imagine you've got good reason. I do think I see a big shadow on the tel, which would fit better with plume 2 being further south (and that could be part of why it looks so much smaller). But maybe they are that close, and if so... that's an exact spot. S line between there and the minaret runs 78 degrees, not 87. But the plume had some width, and the distance is short, so I suppose it could well fit. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:29, 2 May 2017 (UTC)
I always assumed that the dark areas of the hill are there because of it's shape/uneven ground, plume number 3 is too short to cast a shadow on it, and I never suspected the other plumes to be that far south. NYT's video has a segment that was filmed from a place SW of the minaret (screenshot at 01:36), to me it looks like that despite the wind, the first plume is still a bit north of the start of the second plume at that point, so it's shadow would be north of the minaret(at the other side of the road). The second plume is around at the right place, but there are some problems with the shape, I'm not sure how that could work. --Q (talk) 19:54, 2 May 2017 (UTC)
Well that seems to sink it, and is quite interesting. I was slow to respond partly from digesting that. A different angle view can do a few things. Noting I haven't set field of view yet, but there are 3 views over time, taken apparently on different floors of the same building. Also I suppose the damaged home is a good fit for plume 2 casting that shadow - specially considering it doesn't go straight up but angles up on the wind, which must have a north component, as we know. (for ref. I'm calling plume 3 the other big one to the south, and calling the white cloud a cloud with no number). Some things to update, and we're well on course to grasping the whole time-space aspect. Didn't really expect that this time around. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:59, 3 May 2017 (UTC)

First signs of chemical exposure

I finally watched through my playlist. There is no sign of anything happening in Khan Sheikhoun before 10 am. The first video is uploaded by Assi Press Center at 06:33:22 UTC. It is is typical massacre porn, that avoids showing any context. Dead children in a pickup truck. For all we know this could be from Ghouta in 2013. Other early videos show alleged events at hospitals. This video is filmed outside, but the shadows are already quite short. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 11:41, 10 April 2017 (UTC)

I tried an Arabic Twitter search for Khan Sheikhoun and found at least these two:
  • Under the chemical bombardment Allah suffices us and Yes, the agent - Apr 3 9:22 pm = 4:22am on the 4th UTC = 7:22am Syria
  • Another at 9:34 = 7:34.

I suspect it is a little slow, for some reason, taking about an hour before anyone hears about it. But, that's not very long, so it'll be debatable. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:12, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

As for the ones cited above, The Assi press video just says bodies were being shown no later than 9:30-ish local time. The noon video is in Maarat al-Numan close to noon, on n-s street w/divider ... elevation by ambulance shadows app. 60-65 deg., so it must be noon - 12:36 pm, 60.4 degrees elevation. So nearly six hours later, they're still hauling dead-ish people around to hospitals. Shadow azimuth across the street suggests it doesn't run due north, but rather slants to the northeast, FWIW.

By Solar Readings

(this may require some discussion before going on the front page)

Solar readings on earliest images with victims: I've been adding notes to some photos I can roughly time by shadows. They keep coming out around 8-8:30 am, give or take. Petri has been getting earlier estimates.

  • The possible earliest video as cited above has a guy's shadow, upper left, 0:47 - app. head shadow to boots is visible and left-to-right with little foreshortening. I had to estimate his height ... - sugg. elevation around 20-25 degrees. That would be 7:58-8:23 am. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:57, 26 April 2017 (UTC)
  • Khan Sheikhoun cave complex at 7 am.jpg - Azimuth: I tried eyeballing where the far entrance structure corner runs to where this guy is standing - his shadow is on that same line. The line I drew was 99 degrees. That's not exact, but seems close. It comes out to 8:09 am. Est: 7:55-8:20 --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:28, 29 April 2017 (UTC)
  • Khan Sheikhoun - Halab Today TV 0m30s.jpg - Drawing a triangle between the top of the ambulance (line at back end, before the door), where that line meets the ground, and the top of its shadow, on a line parallel to other shadows directly gives about 24 degrees solar elevation. Foreshortening adds a bit to length, dropping the angle to, say, 20-23 degree range. That yields 7:58 to 8:13 am. This one at least I'll show my work, hope it makes sense. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:28, 29 April 2017 (UTC)

4-4-17 Halab Today TV timed.png

  • Khan Sheikhoun hosing EMC.jpg - Sunlight is roughly down the side of the angled truck in the center, parked less than 45 degrees (wide 20-35 range) relative to the back (right-hand) wall, which runs app. 75 degrees on the compass. Azimuth: range app. 95-110 deg = app. 7:45 - 9:15, weighted early, so a good estimate is = 8:20 +/- 25 min. That's broad. Elevation: Estimating shadow length to height ratio, eyeballed, I think the shadows are only about 2-3x the person's height. (2x = 26 deg = 8:28am, 2.2x body height = 22 deg = 8:08 am, 3x = 18 deg. = 7:48, 4x = 14 deg. = 7:28). Seeing how they line up, I would be confident to say it's probably about 8:15-8:30, maybe 15-20 min. earlier or later. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:28, 29 April 2017 (UTC)

Hospital Attack Time

US military says A jet was overhead Khan Sheikhoun at 0337z and 0346z. Add 2 hours for local time, you get 5:37 and 5:46 am. DST might add to the, making it 6:37 and 6:46. Rebels say attack is around 6 am - video suggests low sunlight and cold air, which means early morning, as victims are displayed - but Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem "said the government's first strike happened at 11:30 a.m., about five hours after reports of the chemical attack emerged." (CNN)

Local time was on daylight saving. So UTC + 3. Video of attack was a bit after sunrise which was at ~ 06:18 (UTC+3) so bombing attack was in the period 06:30 to 07:00 and admitted attack at 11:30 am. Local solar noon was at 12:37 (UTC+3) Time & Date--Charles Wood (talk) 01:12, 1 May 2017 (UTC)

CNN also notes Moallem says that hit a chemical weapons depot fro al-Nusra front, and how "Russia said that the deaths were caused by the Syrian regime strike on the munitions depot. But several chemical weapons experts dismissed Russia's claims as "chemically impossible" and "laughable."" And, unless we reject Syria's claim as to when, the sunlight angle and cold air show the people were dead hours earlier than that (that's also presuming same day) --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:12, 9 April 2017 (UTC)

So, by the Trump admin. story, all bombing was done in the span 6:37 to 6:46, right? If so, it should be visible before victims were gathered and displayed there (that'll take more than 9 minutes). But no damage or sense of recent attack is evident in the videos. I had a look at Bellingcat's work on this: it suggests when the hospital was hit, the larger building had its back end blown out, leaving the roof sloping down. That, we can see, is intact in the earlier views. So ... was it hit later than the US says?
Khan-Skeikhoun 4-4-17 Hospital Damage.png

I tried to measure this - south building facade line runs around 75 degrees on the compass - presuming the same basic angle for the two structures behind it, sunlight in the later view is mainly hitting the south face, east walls in shallow shadow. My visual try for azimuth (compass direction to the sun): 173-177 degrees = 12:23-12:32 pm. The government says its first strike happened at 11:30 a.m. Earliest proof it was hit: about an hour later.

Five hours earlier, that wasn't hit yet. Exact time doesn't matter enough, but ... sun mainly hitting east walls, but also breaking across the south face surface, so at an azimuth of least 80 degrees. What angle, not sure. The NOAA solar calculator (set to location, date, GMT+2, DST on) says:

  • It was already 82.37 degrees at sunrise, 6:16 am.
  • At 6:37 it would be 85.4 degrees,
  • at 6:46 it'd be 86.7 deg.

In each case, subtract 75 to gt app. angle of incidence relative to the wall. What do we think? Is maybe even later? Solar elevation: how long are people's shadows relative to their height? Looks like about 3x, maybe 2.5, or 4 times?.

  • 2.5x body height = 22 deg = 8:08 am
  • 3x = 18 deg. = 7:48
  • 4x = 14 deg. = 7:28
  • app. 10x = 5.44 deg. = 6:46
  • app. 15x = 3.7 deg. = 6:37

Between these, it would be nice to get a best time estimate, and set a time frame during which that damage happened. And It's worth double-checking what the Trumpco claim really is. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:33, 9 April 2017 (UTC)

The point was, it's clearly nowhere near 6:30 when that place is damaged, but as I explain below, that appeared relevant but then I guess it isn't. But to seal the deal, and for what it's worth:
  • Hadi Abdullah? video around noon, at the crater by the silos - a distant plume to the southeast lines up with the cave hospital, hit recently. I made a graphic to show that, but it's not needed now.
  • another video seems to be filmed in the hospital as it's hit. People rush outside after the blast, there's smoke, the building is damaged, it's noon. Another plume rises to the south from something hit recently. --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:10, 10 April 2017 (UTC)

This is a bit confused, but apparently, it was not alleged (by most) to be hit around 6:30.

  • CNN reported "US military and intelligence analysts have now confirmed it was Syrian regime warplanes that struck a hospital in Idlib province with chemical weapons. The US picked up the radar intelligence that regime warplanes were in the air and got the infrared signature of bombs detonating at the hospital according to a US official with direct knowledge of the information." That suggests it was in the cited 6:37-6:46 window when people were said to be gassed.
  • And Fox News reports "A hospital in Syria's northern Idlib province was hit soon after the area was bombarded with a suspected chemical agent, an AFP correspondent reported."
  • but [ ABC reports] at 2:35 p.m.: "Syrian opposition activists say an airstrike has hit a small field hospital in a town in northern Syria where a suspected chemical weapons attack took place earlier in the day. The head of the opposition's civil defense force in Khan Sheikhoun, in Idlib province, says the hospital was struck hours after the alleged gas attack that killed dozens of people.
  • and CNN reports "The US military official said the Pentagon was examining specifically whether a Russian warplane had bombed a hospital in Khan Sheikhoun five hours after the initial chemical attack, with the aim of destroying evidence. A US defense official says intelligence shows a Russian drone flew over the hospital in Idlib that was treating victims of the chemical attack, prior to the site being later bombed by an unknown aircraft."

Syria claims an attack on a militant base in the area around 11:30. So I guess the firstreport was confused and meant they think it was Syrian jets that hit the hospital after the chemical attack, and it wasn't the Russians as they were considering. It's unclear if they still think they know the motive and it was to cover up evidence. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:59, 10 April 2017 (UTC)

This Video by Maaz Al-Shaami shows a bomb strike on the underground hospital at around noon judging by the sun angle. So the conclusion is there were two air raids. One at 06:30 to 07:00 local time involving gas and a second at 11:30 to 12:30 using conventional bombs on the underground hospital at least. Incidentally, the second raid had beige bomb clouds so very likely SyAAF aircraft did the bombing, not Russian. --Charles Wood (talk) 05:36, 11 April 2017 (UTC)
At 00:12 in the Maaz al-Shaami video it looks very much like Had al-Abdullah there as well. How does this tie into Hadi being in-town as referenced elsewhere on this page? --Charles Wood (talk) 11:18, 29 April 2017 (UTC)
SNHR: "suspected Russian warplanes fired missiles on Civil Defense Center in Khan Sheikhoun city in Idlib governorate southern suburbs, destroying its building, damaging its equipment and an ambulance and rendering it inoperable on April 4, 2017." (photo) Same thing in a tweet, and a bit earlier, "#RussianForces shelled al Rahma Hospital in #KhanSheikhoun city in #Idlib on April 4" (same place presumably, interior photo) That's from 4:12 pm local time, a long delay even after a noon strike. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:31, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

By clock times

This twitter account contains links to embedded versions of Shajul Islam's hospital video showing digital clocks on the wall, and makes the point that some of the purported emergency treatment is as late as 2.30 pm Pmr9 (talk) 15:04, 30 April 2017 (UTC)

Water triage

The shadow drawn on the back wall of the emergency entrance of the compound shows the time.
The Halab Today TV video shows the same scene some half an hour later. Are victims being loaded on the truck or offloaded? Did the truck manage to pick up a fresh load of victims and then park in exactly the same spot in the yard already full of victims?
Three children are seen dumped to the ground. Two hour later they are seen on a pickup truck in downtown Khan Sheikhoun.
Summary: The water triage scene looks staged, none of the "victims" received treatment at the White Helmets hospital. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 01:26, 13 April 2017 (UTC)

I have spent the night looking at my playlist of videos from the White Helmets cave complex. I could not find any obvious continuity errors. On the other hand, I found no proof that any chemical weapons victims were ever treated at the White Helmets hospital.

Ten of the videos form a timeline from about 9 am to late afternoon, that can with high confidence be dated to April 4th.

The White Helmets are being very secretive about the early morning events at the cave complex. The videos of the hosing scene appeared only in the afternoon. Screenshots of the videos appeared online earlier. It is uncertain if this scene happened on April 4th at all. The clips that are available are very heavily edited, 100% massacre porn with little if anything that could help in dating them. They were given to rebel news agencies and mixed with April 4 footage and interviews before publication. The strongest call for World War 3 is in the SMART media video that was viewed on Facebook 20 million times.

The hosing scene is typical White Helmets. Hysterical action and running around, without any purpose. The victims are likely brought in on white two flatbed pickup trucks. They are dumped on the ground and hosed with water from a fire engine parked inside the cave entrance. Later we see that the fire engine has been moved to near the entrance to the enclosed courtyard. At some point children are packed into ambulances to be taken away, but it is never clear if the victims are coming in or going out.

Two sisters and their likely little brother are seen dumped to the ground. Two hour later they are seen on a pickup truck in downtown Khan Sheikhoun, in the first video claiming to show signs of a chemical attack.

Later in the day (if this truly is the same day) there is something like an open house at the compound. Everything is very relaxed, except for the excitement caused by the midday bombing. No CW related medical work seems to be happening. Five bodies are shown, there may be ten total at the site. One girl is carried around in different levels of undress.

The first video in this series is by Orient News. Shadows show that it is about one hour later in the day than in the hosing scene. One child with blood on his feet is seen in the treatment room. One body lies covered in sheets on the rightmost table. One small child is carried outside wrapped in a red blanket. There is no sign outside of the hosing scene ever happening.

Some two hours later we see that the treatment room has been totally cleaned up. There are clean sheets on the beds, fresh IV solution bags hang from the stands, waiting for new patients. AFP interviews a medic, who said the hopital had received 200 patients today, 50 of whom were dead. The dead girl lies on the table. In the next video, by Aleppo Media Center she is carried outside. We see the body of one female outside and the bodies of two adult men in the motorcycle garage. Earlier photos of the garage show four other bodies that have evidently been taken away. All fighting age men, most with beards.

Something happens around 12:30 am. A bomb explodes. The first we hear about it is in this fake video by a Yaman Khateeb, who reports on it on his Facebook page at 12:39. It is unlikely that a bomb outside would affect the treatment room. Instead someone seems to light a flare in the room.

Later videos show part of the building outside the cave destroyed. The same bodies are there, so it must be the same day. Hadi Alabdallah and his friend Maaz al-Shami seem extremely exited about the blasts outside. I am not sure any Syrian bomb ever fell on the compound. The building looks like it was blown up from the inside. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 07:10, 10 April 2017 (UTC) Updated 14:40, 12 April 2017 (UTC)

Differences between Day X and April 4th

Did the water triage scene really happen on April 4th?

  • There is a bench at the eastern end of the courtyard The Reuters photo by Ammar Abdullah show some red sacks on it. These are missing from the Day X footage.
  • The same photo shows a blanket and some clothes on the platform outside the doorway. None of these are seen on the Day X footage.

-- Petri Krohn (talk) 09:14, 10 April 2017 (UTC)

Petri, I'm getting oriented, at least spatially, with this scene; still confused temporally. That bench is actually a concrete slab. The best view of it is in the 2:02 SMART vid where all the spraying is going on. At about 00:30 there are three guys in their underwear lying prostrate on the slab/bench. Next to the R foot of the guy with the nice clean white undies there is an orange EMT body board. The same body board lying on the same slab is seen in the same vid at 00:27. The three guys are not there. This 00:27 view is very helpful
At the right end of the slab/bench is a doorway. At the left end of the slab/bench is a garage. A large white truck is backed into the garage.
Now go to the Abdullah image of the WH guy with the Canon-strap carrying the kid wrapped in blue plastic. There are several short vid clips showing this scene. It is the same spot as above. In this scene the grey/red ambulance #13 is parked in the garage. The same motorcycle is parked next to the garage in both scenes. The WH guy is walking toward the slab/bench. As you note, there are blankets or bags on the slab/bench. There is no body board and no guys in wet skivvies. In the photo there are virtually no shadows. In the 2:02 SMART vid, the ground is in shadow right up to and including the slab/bench. The ground is covered with water in the vid and no tire tracks, but not much water in the photo, only mucky with lots of tire tracks. I haven't figured out the sequence.
Of further interest in the 2:02 vid: at 01:30 a guy is spraying down someone on the ground. In the background is a dark car with a guy in white underwear hoping around like he is getting dressed or undressed. He throws something into the car. I think these actors are probably union, so he may be at the end of his shift. -- Pierpont (talk) 04:35, 12 April 2017 (UTC)
I have ordered my playlist in what I believe to be the temporal order. In the end I have included videos that have short clips of additional footage. I believe the Ammar Abdullah photos and video are taken on April 4th, before the bombing, as they show some of the same bodies as seen on April 4th, both before and after the bombing.
The bench I am speaking about is not the slab, but all the way back against the eastern wall of the courtyard. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 06:17, 12 April 2017 (UTC)

More Solar Readings

  • File:Qasioun News Agency Khan Shaikhoun.jpg - elev: 36-38 = time range app. 9:20-9:30 am. Az would be 111.5-113.5 at those times (rounded). That would make this a roughly E-W street, tending a bit NW-SE. Best fit for that is just south of the Tel. A spot I'll guess is here on Wikimapia. Maybe that's not it, but I think we have the street, and it's not that long.
  • video: patients rushed to a hospital, it says, in Maarat al-Numan. The Assi press video just says bodies were being shown no later than 9:30-ish local time. The noon video is in Maarat al-Numan close to noon, on n-s street w/divider ... elevation by ambulance shadows app. 60-65 deg., so it must be noon - 12:36 pm, 60.4 degrees elevation. So nearly six hours later, they're still hauling dead-ish people around to hospitals. Shadow azimuth across the street suggests it doesn't run due north, but rather slants to the northeast, for geolocation (note divider in opening moments)). --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:04, 29 April 2017 (UTC)
  • video: Hadi Abdulla, no protection aside from a paper mask, at the crater April 4. The road runs 18 deg from north, and the parallel wall is just barely in shadow, so azimuth is about (180 + 15-17 =) 195-197 = 13:06 - 13:12, a half hour past solar noon at 12:36, almost 7 hours after the alleged sarin plume from here that affected some 500 people and killed over 100. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:04, 29 April 2017 (UTC)