Talk:Alleged Chemical Attack, November 24, 2018

From A Closer Look On Syria
Jump to navigation Jump to search

'French connection'

According to Fars Al Mayadeen has run with a source who accuses French experts of modifying the shells used in the attack. Apparently based on this report from Sputnik, 23 November

Has been picked up on the main page... Its hard to see how the targeting a govt held area with mortars/shells would be consistent with an intent to create a false flag to incriminate the govt side --Diagonal (talk) 13:35, 6 December 2018 (UTC)

... but not with a false flag to incriminate the anti-gov side (as a logical possibility, without saying this is it, I have no idea, and there seems to be not much to go by...Needs to know where shells came from and who/how much controls that; Ru MoD below....Unsure whether location or control is disputed....)--Resup (talk) 14:09, 6 December 2018 (UTC)
RU MoD says, bad guys ...fired 120-millimeter shells at the northwestern districts of Aleppo from the southeastern part of the demilitarized zone (near the village of Al-Buraykat, controlled by the militants of Hayat Tahrir Ash-Sham, former Nusra Front)
Not my best-covered case, but... French connection might be more solid than I thought.
  • URGENT: about 150 French AQ jihadis currently in #Jisr_al_shughur, #Idlib, participated in the production and transfer of chemical weapons to various locations to be used against the Syria army. Aleppo was hit by some of these rockets two weeks ago.
Motive: not the best to get Assad blamed, but ... it's a way to gas people, terrorize, for whatever opposition gain (?) and surely get away with it fine. But now, Assad is getting blamed (State Dept.). Is it just "tear gas"? Is this dismissal final? What struck me is all you'd have to do is use the same sarin used in every attack so far, starting nearby in Khan Al-Assal. That would blame Assad in the most red-line sense. It would show he could even be bombed for attacking his own people. This matters as that are less and less rebel-held areas to get in trouble over attacks on. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:58, 8 December 2018 (UTC)

False False Flag?

RU MoD manages to phrase its accusation so it relates White Helmets provocations with this attack on the gov-controlled territory. I am unsure what to make of that, apart from a strange feeling. But running off further with this -are they saying it's false false flag? (ie something which looks like a false flag, but in fact it isn't, rather it is created by your opponent to look like a false flag created by you). That may be a bit too fancy at this time, because masses of their 'our Western partners' seem to have hard time even with single false as in the 'false flag', and double false is useless for purposes of public manipulation, because too few will get it, so it won't have 'tangible impact'.

But as pointed out above, maybe it's used as part of local warfare, with little attention to Western audience, in that particular event.

Western position noted, but unclear how they reached their conclusion. A certain Abu Baba called them and told that this is the case? They have not been there or collected samples, so unclear why they suddenly say what they say --Resup (talk) 05:28, 9 December 2018 (UTC)

Where on Earth is Al-Buraykat?

Area map according to ETANA Syria

Affected location

Affected by CW area is given as Al-Khalidia (Khalidiyah ?) and Al-Nil (Alnil?) Street in Aleppo, Rusvesna, 25 Nov. 2018

The Poison(s) Used

Not Tear Gas

The Trump administration false-flag theory includes an assessment that tear gas was used, not the reported chlorine. But tear gas (CS usually, perhaps capsicum or others?) is a simple irritant, with symptoms about the same as chlorine. But neither would explain the observed/reported symptoms of the civilians exposed that night.

"The United States ... has credible information that pro-regime forces likely used teargas against civilians in Aleppo" and "Russian and Syrian personnel were involved in the teargas incident."

By my research, it's just an irritant, damaging moist tissues, causing pain that way. Eyes snap shut, eyes tear and vision goes blurry, but probably just from that watering. Temporary blindness is reported sometimes, probably from these same mechanical causes. Loss of motor control is mentioned, but not explained.

There's an argument CS is a nerve agent. Not really.

"the chemicals used today aren't just aerosolized itching powder: They're actually nerve agents." Apparently research shows they act on the same pain nerves the irritation is already triggering, amplifying that pain. Knowing this, "people can better compare them to other nerve agents out there." In this case, the difference is kind of the opposite of paralysis and death; by urging the victim to leave, and leaving them able to, such agents "increase survival" - to the extent that death from a simple irritant was ever an issue...

also here:

Otherwise, it doesn't seem to effect the nervous system. It should not cause diminished consciousness, paralysis, seizures/tremors, nausea, vomiting. Headache, fatigue/weakness, maybe the others could be caused by severe lack of oxygen following on unusually severe or prolonged caustic exposure, but are unlikely to form this widely as primary symptoms from that alone.

Aleppo symptoms:

- headache - common (general) weakness - nausea and vomiting - itchy eyes

- breathing difficulties - blurred vision

- difficulty breathing, - eye inflammation, - shivering and fainting

- tremors seen near video's end

- itchy eyes - burning feeling inside - bleeding - headache - 15 who were discharged had to go back to hospital after symptoms worsened

Irritant features play in - burning eyes, tears, perhaps drooling come from this. But other symptoms can't be explained by simple irritant. It's not clear why the Trump administration decided tear gas was "likely," but it seems something more severe was used. As for the early reports 12 people had died so far (Sputnik tweet) - these were apparently some error and no one died? Certainly any number of deaths would point away from non-lethal tear gas, and almost as clearly against chlorine. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:21, 3 January 2019 (UTC)

Tremors, I believe, seen for one person on video, but not for others? I wonder can alternative explanations of it be excluded, such as being cold, dosed with cold water, frightened, etc --Resup (talk) 19:13, 3 January 2019 (UTC)

Good point. As noted, nothing can be ruled out totally (by me), caused by an irritant or variously by other things like cold. But "shivering" is also noted in one spot as an apparent symptom of the gas (I'm not the only one who links it then), besides quite a few other things that shouldn't come widely with a simple irritant. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:25, 5 January 2019 (UTC)


That would be a midway between 'chlorine' and 'tear gas'.

Note strange recent mentioning of phosgene in recent mass media reports about French 'yellow vests' (said to be published and redacted out by BBC; I saw this in Western mass media news somewhere but cannot recall where). --Resup (talk) 12:15, 9 December 2018 (UTC)

  • Wayback machine, Yellow vest movement: Heavy security as France protests begin, BBC, 8 December 2018, 10:24:39 Zulu version: (there are 13 versions recorded on that day):
    There have been a few confrontations, with police firing tear gas at protesters in a side street as tensions flared.
    The gas is believed to be phosgene, much stronger than substances used previously.
  • World War I Battlefield Gas Believed In Use Against Paris Protesters Today-Posted on 12/8/2018, 8:45:00 AM by Nextrush ,, who said:
    "The gas is believed to be phosgene". As published around 5am by BBC News online, removed from later versions
  • Heavy security in France as anti-government protests begin, a version published by, December 8, 2018
    The gas is believed to be phosgene, much stronger than substances used previously.

...But in forums, including dated Russian (2004), there is much doubt phosgene is in use by police ... Unclear what prompted the report... --Resup (talk) 13:30, 9 December 2018 (UTC)

On (2004, Rus) forum: A mixture of phosgene and chloroacetophenone (which replaced chloropicrin somewhere in the 30s) is used in self-defense gas munitions (and policemen) under the trade name "nerve paralytic" (this has no relation to the FOV).
I would suspect the phosgene reports in France are some kind of rumor. That's pretty deadly stuff, responsible for the vast majority of CW deaths in WWI - first used by France, I think. Considering that and an alleged French connection to the Aleppo attacks... much is unknown. I'd have to review the symptoms, and reports on that are vague. Death toll, apparently zero but maybe the 12+ reported once, kept quiet since. Reports on smell are vague, but maybe not vague enough for phosgene, which smells like cut grass. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:15, 10 December 2018 (UTC)

Media coverage

Middle East Eye commentary:

Seems to favour sources with anti-gov inclination --Diagonal (talk) 13:00, 10 December 2018 (UTC)