Talk:Aleppo University Attack: Physical Evidence

From A Closer Look On Syria
Jump to: navigation, search

Dorm Strike Image Assessment

Images

Assessment

Moved from the front page. Why not use this to invite critiques from the other couple of over-worked members? If anything is bad enough to call it, we won't put it up front. Reference throughout to images in the front page gallery. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:07, 28 February 2013 (UTC)

Image 4, from SANA, is potentially quite useful, looking to the north/northwest. Note intact walls here, but marked. Three holes and a chip in almost a line above ground floor windows. 2nd floor, third window, chipped facade. This could be from fragments from the second impact here or, potentially by the proximity, from the first strike. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:07, 28 February 2013 (UTC)

In general terms, the dramatic but superficial facade damage to the west facade stands out. It suggests the greatest force (at detonation) occurred just south (right) of the stairwell at the facade's center. The damage extends in both direction from there, but stops rather suddenly to the north, with portions of the stairwell walls knocked out and the faced on the strip north knocked away. In contrast, the damage trails off to the south. Each column of rooms losing less of their outer walls; first the narrow, redundant span of wall just south of the stairwell is missing floor to roof. Then it's 4 out of 6 floors blown open, then 3, then 2. The "steps" thus traced should roughly map the initial movement of the dome of detonating gasses at its greatest force. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:07, 28 February 2013 (UTC)

Note in image 2 the two vehicles flipped (the northern one is the car in image 5) and the one just south that wound up still upright. That too will helps set where the blast was stronger and hitting vehicles from the side, as opposed to rolling over their aerodynamic fronts. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:07, 28 February 2013 (UTC)

Image 9, run with a Press TV report. Looking south, there are little holes on the interior walls along this line. More damage than usual, left of picture center: heavy gouges in the vertical members, upper ground floor, a bit onto the second floor. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:07, 28 February 2013 (UTC)

Graphic

This is something I basically finished before, waiting on something... on the verge of 2 years since, let's finally put it up, perfect or not. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:22, 13 January 2015 (UTC)

AleppoU Dorm Damage Graphic.png

Crater/Impact Point

The likely impact point is in the middle foreground of images 3 and 8. There is one particular area on the right, very near the curb, that seems to be a crater with debris filling it in. We see pushed-out segment of curb, a thrust up earthen rock, and piles of soil around the edge of this area. To the left of that, much larger debris - building facade, mostly - perhaps covers the majority of the area excavated by explosives. Thus it's hard to say how wide or deep the crater is, just where it's centered, or how it's shaped. Until we can see a view of it once cleared, it will provide little evidence except an approximate best-guess for the hit location - somewhere in the IDP camp out front, a roughly 15-meter wide yard between the sidewalk and the building's face, apparently around or just south of building center. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:07, 28 February 2013 (UTC)

Until we see anything more revealing, I'm inclined to put the app. impact point just south of building center (south edge of the stairwell), and halfway out across the 15-meter front ... area. Sound good? It should be close. Here's the graphic. Rotated. They're about 120 meters apart. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:04, 3 March 2013 (UTC)
Alep Univ crater Locations.png

I thought before and I think now we can see the edge of the crater in the foreground of image 3, mostly filled and leveled by out-blowing building debris. But there's a ring of dirt, perhas just the edge of one part of the crater, rather than of the whole thing. Seems to line up roungly with the second room right of the center. If this were the center, the red dot above would be better placed just a few meters south (several pixels to the right). Seems to be quite close to my old guess then, matching the building evidence and the flipped cars. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:34, 15 January 2015 (UTC)

Crater Location

This refers to the damage at the traffic roundabout.

Aleppo Univ damage crater 2.png
The exact location of this (at left) still needs to be pinned down before the shape of it can tell us the implied trajectory. The basic area can be set by following the sidewalk to the black plumes straight ahead, so the west part of the roundabout, around here on Google Maps. Seems to be in the street, the top layer being asphalt/blacktop. The view of this photo seems to be to the southeast, catching the dorm in the upper center, with trees but no visible fences between. To the right, a lot of jumbled stuff behind chain link fence, perhaps after some clean-up, suggesting a later photo and an area that was likely street before. I'll break this down for FoV (below, stretched vertically to maximize the sliver of surroundings present) and then set lines that converge on the best location (later). --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:09, 26 February 2013 (UTC)
Aleppo Univ damage roundabout 10.png
This photo, image 10 in the roundabout gallery, might help, but it suggests the crater is at the roundabout's east edge, almost on the same block with the dorms, and so closer to the second hit than I thought. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:54, 27 February 2013 (UTC)
Found another image, video still, showing a bit wider context. Compare to right and below and the scene is set. It's pretty pinned down. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:26, 10 March 2013 (UTC)
This is what I was already seeing looking at satellite images. But usually there's a fence all around. Here's what I think happened: Too many people were camping in there, too, on account of the yahoo freedom campaign.So the hefty fence was taken out, replaced with moveable chain-link segments with spaces to get in and out. (fence is around the comm tower. It seems mostly intact, but at least part pushed-over and maybe part missing) More tent material can be seen in both images, consistently placed. Another image, roundabout damage 11 (not uploaded yet) suggests poles and tarps/tents behind that fence that was apparently hit with a fireball. Note the trees aren't burned, though the cars are. It mostly just flashed acrosseverything, but cars have a way of continuing to burn. One tree in there seems to be broken and missing a decent middle part.
Anyway, in the second image above, we see a gray expanse with shadows that then fall off. I move that this is the edge of the crater as seen above there, lower right. It's a segment of asphalt turned up at an angle by the force. Sets the spot, right at the corner, just about at the curb. I don't any longer feel like I have a handle on the direction it came from. The clues seem to point different ways at the moment. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:07, 28 February 2013 (UTC) and edits --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:26, 10 March 2013 (UTC)
For example, that raised asphalt makes more sense with a strike from the south, but it could consistent with both. Dropping down steeply will send a general shock wave down to reflect back up - hence dirt everywhere, as we see. The direction of piling, however, suggests more was kicked up and settled on the other side of the crater, to the south-southeast, suggesting a NNW origin. The white sign-face in the center of the lower photo seems un-burnt. From its proximity to the crater (southwest), it arguably could have been. That it didn't might help set the exact angle, although this being shielded could be consistent with either trajectory, depending what angle the sign is set at. The flipped car seen about 30 meters southwest of here, and the way it effected the cars it landed on and ignited over there, will be another part of this puzzle looked at below or above or wherever. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:22, 2 March 2013 (UTC)

Following the Signs

From satellite images, it seems there were once three large, billboard signs like the one seen across this corner. The norther two were apparently obliterated, their bases being about where the crater seems centered. There and maybe a few feet further into the block. Two lines of sight images forthcoming. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:26, 10 March 2013 (UTC)

Okay, one LoS study only.Refer to the other images for more multi-angle confirmation. I could do three, but this one should suffice to explain the view and partially set the crater dimensions. The colored lines try to match the video; On the right, yellow-to-sky blue mark the south sign width, up to the corner fence post. Going left, piled dirt up to the red and from just before red to between the left-hand blues, roughly, is the crater. Also between the blues on the left, a partial temporary shelter of wood and fabric. Above that, trees between red and blue. Going right, purple to yellow shows between the trees the facade of the next dorm over (not the one hit - that starts between the right-hand blues, all but cropped off here). The orange line points about to the north edge of the visible dorm's central staircase. Pretty consistent with distance trees and light poles between yellow and red lines near its facade.--Caustic Logic (talk) 09:23, 11 March 2013 (UTC)

Aleppo Univ north crater LoS study.png
Aleppo Univ north crater graphic.png
This graphic starts the analysis. I retract above about the old fence being removed and replaced with chain link. Rather, the blast removed the main fence here, and let us see the fence around the com tower. The com tower building is apparently the trashed stuff near the fence, which must be the remaining back (southeast) panel; it runs about to the red line in the study above. I kept the crater shape simple here, elongated a bit to approximate the size, while extending into the street. It might be a bit leading by that shape, but not by much. The ring of dirt around is not set to vary any, although as I've said, it looks like a bigger pile of heavier material wound up on the east and south sides, within the fence, suggesting a trajectory like that. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:45, 11 March 2013 (UTC)

The traces of these billboard signs should be watched for, although hard to recognize in the jumble, which may include a couple of other damaged signs. In photo 10 above, it looks kind of like a part of one of them wound up stuck to the communication tower.--Caustic Logic (talk) 09:23, 11 March 2013 (UTC)

Roundabout Images

Tossed Cars

There are quite a few cars and trucks that were burned, some that were flipped over and banged up, and a few that seem to have been just tossed through the air and smashed. I guess this happened at both sites with enough distance to make it clear which vehicle belongs to which scene and deserves two sections --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:57, 3 March 2013 (UTC)

Roundabout Tossed Cars

Among the most damaged cars are those seen in image 12, just at the SW corner of the intersection. Half-flattened, WSW of the blast. Others, even nearer the blast site (it seems) are very little damaged (see image 1 and 6). These seem to be just about west, or WNW of the crater. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:57, 3 March 2013 (UTC)

Some others of note are seen in images 2, 3, and 4, suggesting a complex scene. The three upright cars all appear run into the curb while driving south. The rear car apparently rammed the others after it was hit, from behind, by the car that wound up next to it upside down. I think this one was ignited and tossed, about 25-30 meters southwest, then slammed into, compressed, and ignited this column of cars. That suggests a strong outward blast almost beneath the flying car, plus maybe a trajectory going some combination of south or west. These four would seem to be the main origin of the smoke our opposition cameraman was walking towards when he filmed the second strike. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:57, 3 March 2013 (UTC)

Dorm Tossed Cars

forthcoming - image 8 above is misclassified and belongs here. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:57, 3 March 2013 (UTC)