Talk:Al Ahli Hospital Bombing
Background
- Seymour Hersh says Israel plans using new mass-killing bombs during Gaza aggression - Radio Habana Cuba, October 15, 2023
Prior Strike and Warnings
- Anglican-run al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza damaged by Israeli rocket fire as war continues - Anglican Communion News Service October 16, 2023
- The Diagnostic Cancer Treatment Centre of al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza has been hit by an Israeli rocket. Two upper floors of the centre, which houses the ultrasound and mammography wards, were severely damaged...The Archbishop of Canterbury, Archbishop Justin Welby, has spoken of the “grave danger” facing hospitals in Gaza, and he called for the Israeli evacuation order in place for northern Gaza to be rescinded for hospitals in the region. “The seriously ill and injured patients at the Anglican-run Ahli Hospital – and other healthcare facilities in northern Gaza – cannot be safely evacuated”, he said.
- Anglican church says it got Israeli orders to evacuate Gaza hospital in days leading up to deadly attack - Andalou Agency, October 19, 2023
Al Awda Hospital
Sources
Purported videos, claims
- https://twitter.com/jacksonhinklle/status/1714338516753101022
- it's "interesting" that there is no prior (sound) recording, which would be useful, if genuine of course (nb, nothing seems to register after the bang)
- https://twitter.com/yousuf_tw/status/1714367757968384106
- two flashes, called launcher and hospital by submitter, are at some 17 s and 19 s on the video, apparent time difference of about 2 seconds (nb, real time may be more/not the same)
- That video is from this news feed: https://twitter.com/albertofierroal/status/1714363267483574634 With time displayed of 18.59. Aric Toler has first reports at around 7.20 pm
- https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/1714524012733424048/video/1 (Time stamped 19.59)
- https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1714377828131553446
- What? No flaring IDF plane?
- https://twitter.com/citizenjournos_/status/1714454679394951567
- whoosh sound starts at about 5 s into recording and ends at about 6.5 or 7 s . Nothing seems to register, before or after. Terminal speed is some 300 m/s for dumb bombs, 50 m/s for skydivers, so JDAM, which is winged, is somewhere in between, so we hear not more then 500-600 or so meters traveled, if at terminal speed. Why not more? Is this rather nearby rocket launch? --Resup (talk) 22:28, 18 October 2023 (UTC) updated --10:35, 19 October 2023 (UTC)
- Could not find real falling bombs recordings , of any use; mostly movies versions; maybe that's what we hear on those recordings ? Or else, what's the explanation of under 2 sec duration ? (if it's graveyard to hospital flight, as IDF said, it would likely be pretty short --Resup (talk) 23:00, 18 October 2023 (UTC))
- CCTV footage - with helicopters or perhaps UAV's circling. @Michakobs has them near Gaza Port.
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29uMPcm-Bug
- Israel releases 'audio of Hamas discussing failed rocket launch'
- https://t.me/NewResistance/25303 - BBC early reporting
- https://t.me/NewResistance/25303 - Morning after
Aftermath
Video - Secondary explosion - probably a car exploding and not a 'double tap'Not relevant different incident- Video of scene and crater, See also this thread and replies
- Aftermath of deadly blast at Gaza's al-Ahli Hospital that killed hundreds - AP Archive, October 23, 2023
- Footage Shows Destruction After Deadly Gaza Hospital Compound Blast - WSJ News, October 18, 2023
Statements
- [1] - IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari stated shortly after the incident that the IDF was looking into what happened, noting that while there are many strikes being conducted throughout Gaza, there are also many failed launches and many false reports from Hamas.
- [2] - The IDF confirmed late Tuesday night that Islamic Jihad's failed rocket had destroyed a Gaza hospital, leading to a still unclear number of deaths. The IDF said that it had multiple intelligence sources that had confirmed that Islamic Jihad, and not Israel, were responsible, despite accusations by Hamas and some other countries.
Hananya Naftali tweet
BREAKING: Israel Air Force struck a Hamas terrorist base inside a hospital in Gaza. A multiple number of terrorists are dead.
- https://twitter.com/Mojeezus/status/1714526838398300501
- https://twitter.com/WorkerUnit1/status/1714505209307672668/photo/1
- https://twitter.com/yanisvaroufakis/status/1714554674357911835
- https://t.me/ResumenLat/151437
IDF: "Hamas uses hospitals as terror infrastructures"
- "Hamas HQ Hidden Under Gaza's Largest Hospital", IDF, YouTube, October 27, 2023
- IDF claims that is has classified intelligence on Hamas having hideouts, fuel storage, in tunnels under hospitals; and that it has its HQ under Shifa hospital, largest hospital in Gaza. IDF says that military use of hospitals invalidates their protection in law. Al Ahli is mentioned as an example of using human shields/targeting own civilians. IDF maintains that casualties at Al Ahli were caused by Palestinian rocket. Nothing is said about whether specifically Al Ahli is known or suspected of military use. --Resup (talk) 12:02, 28 October 2023 (UTC)
Al-Shifa Hospital
- Shifa Hospital anticlimax – 200 Hamas forces evaporate into thin air? - analysis - JPost, November 15, 2023
"The director of Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza, Muhammad Abu Salima, announced in a call with Sky News Arabia that all patients in the hospital’s intensive care department had died"
--Resup (talk) 15:36, 17 November 2023 (UTC)
Analysis
- Who is to blame for Gaza hospital bomb - we scrutinise the evidence - Tom Watling, The Independent, October 18, 2023
- Conflicting claims about Gaza hospital blast. So who's said what? - Sky News, October 18, 2023
- Backing the slaughter and silencing the critics - Elizabeth Vos, Consortium News, October 18, 2023
- This is another Iraqi WMD moment. We're being gaslit - Jonathan Cook, October 18, 2023
- Israel Or Palestinian Resistance; Who Is Responsible For Air Strike On Al-Ahli Arab Hospital? - ISWNEWS October 19, 2023
- Did Israel Warn Al Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza to Evacuate? - Snopes, October 19, 2023
- Scott Ritter: Both Hamas and Israel could have reasons to hide the truth about the Al-Ahli hospital blast - RT, October 20, 2023
- Israel is caught lying time and again. And yet we never learn - Jonathan Cook, October 23, 2023
Twitter threads
- https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1714535497958334678
- https://twitter.com/AyazK100/status/1714677884529652055
- https://twitter.com/PetriKrohn/status/1714767837707870658
- https://twitter.com/MichaKobs/status/1715364747791487184
- Forensic Architecture
- @Geoconfirmed - Based on the geolocation of new footage its highly likely that: The missile -Al Jazeera footage- is an interceptor. (Iron Dome) The explosion in the air is too far away to be related to the hospital explosion.
Analysis videos
- https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/87366 - Analysis video: MyLordBebo Suggests air blast. Analysis
- Al Jazeera - Twitter, On Telegram - Timeline based analysis of video evidence of strikes between 18.54 and 18.59. Finds against it being an intercepted Palestinian rocket.
- Middle East Monitor Telgram, Youtube - Interviewee claims 'whoosh' sound signature is typical sound from fins on guided bombs such as JDAMs. And that missiles/rockets are quieter when incoming.
- Al Ahli - the forensics of terror - achimspok, October 25, 2023
- Shows the Forensic architecture crater analysis incorrect and the Israeli claims don't fit. Makes the case for a missile coming from Israel attack helicopters circling to the west. But the details linking what they take for helicopter firing and the hospital explosion not made. What was the time delay between supposed missile launch and impact? And does this match the speed of subsonic missile such as hellfire? The steep trajectory would imply fired from near max range of the missile. Also not clear if they are helicopters or drones circling. --Diagonal (talk) 09:57, 26 October 2023 (UTC)
Discussion
(1) There is a danger of this becoming partisan (ie based on support positions). That would be not contributing much to others stating there positions (2) Yet from the little I saw so far to do with the cause, noting that a lot of fire is seen, and not much of a crater (that is more like a typical crashing missile (which needs range and cannot take a lot of explosives; and with its "fuel" made to burn, not to explode at once) than a typical bomb) . --Resup (talk) 12:02, 18 October 2023 (UTC)
- ...and now seen that the crater is said to be not seen .... --Resup (talk) 12:56, 18 October 2023 (UTC)
- (Petri comment) It's true that sometimes on hard grounds Grads do not produce much of a crater, those photos are indeed known here. But it is also not inconsistent with what Grads do elsewhere (compare with 1, 2, 3, 4). We cannot really asses the hardness of that ground, some bricks over who knows what (looks like not much, soil here, vs cement in Donetsk, and that might do). Likely JDAMs used by Israel will produce more severe damage, it is taking buildings down elsewhere. Moreover, if it is JDAM, we will likely have verifiable shrapnel and parts, by now, and more support to theory then Grads failing to dig sometimes. --Resup (talk) 19:52, 19 October 2023 (UTC)
- I was only at the stage of throwing sources in. I usually try and put a range of sources in, as you don't know what might turn out to be helpful. I can start with a bias motivation or just be totally open minded. If it doesn't check out no one is paying us to make the case, so we adapt the interpretation or move on. Part of the methodology of this site is to start with giving non-western sources the benefit of the doubt, isnt it? I don't know about the death toll here or in the Supernova attack, so they're still to verify fully. I haven't put all this together. Haven't got much time for it all currently. But important events so,..
- To me, from the immediately prior to the explosion, it is quite clearly, not some errant Hamas rocket, but a precision ordinance. --Diagonal (talk) 19:00, 18 October 2023 (UTC)
- Anything of the same shape and density, after some height, say roughly 250 meters , will fall at the same speed (aka terminal speed) when air resistance will balance gravity, and so will sound about the same --Resup (talk) 20:31, 18 October 2023 (UTC)
- This https://t.me/NewResistance/25305 , in JDAM supporting section, has (1) plane sound recorded (2) whistling sound starts to register at about 14 s (above plane noise), and ends with impact at 10 s . On hospital recording there is no sound of a plane, and it whistles under 2 seconds --Resup (talk) 18:48, 19 October 2023 (UTC)
- Anything of the same shape and density, after some height, say roughly 250 meters , will fall at the same speed (aka terminal speed) when air resistance will balance gravity, and so will sound about the same --Resup (talk) 20:31, 18 October 2023 (UTC)
- TBC - Are the videos of the same time, location, unedited...?
Scott Ritter article. In general, makes sense, as he tries to assemble overall picture (apart from possible bias to emphasize a "marketable", not boring/already claimed story). At 55 seconds past 6:59 pm, a small explosion can be seen a few hundred meters from the Al-Ahli Hospital. Two seconds later, a larger blast erupted on the hospital grounds. This was the attack that took so many innocent lives. There is also 2 seconds of whooshing sound on explosion videos (played by ear, no time for more thorough). It seems plausible that first flash is from the launch, and "two seconds later" flash is the impact. There is nothing else prior to explosion in the audio, in particular no plane sound, which works against plane dropped bomb scenario. Moreover, the size of the crater points to a small warhead possessing less than 50 pounds of high explosives --Ritter. Many munitions are in this category, Grads, 155 mm shells, GBU39, small air to ground missiles, so it is hard, if not impossible, to make a definite case on this as a single basis. Indeed, it needs real forensic on real crater. (Noted, GBU 39 supposedly can penetrate 91 cm of reinforced concrete, clearly it is doing less damage here as underneath the bricks there is something softer; still proper forensic is needed). As for operational considerations, there is no reason for Israel to bomb civilians, or parking lots (apart maybe in some of the leftwingers imagination), unless there is VIP target. One would not go after VIP target with JDAM bomb from a plane, this makes no practical sense, it would be a drone which can follow and pass video stream, to identify and to follow. But deleted post of a gov official is only telling about some unspecific SNAFU, in the fog of the war. If this is "most closely guarded secret", it may be not shared with communications kind of people. If they are somehow deep insiders, it is implausible that their protocol would be to tweet first, investigate later. This guy probably had a ready text what to do in case of collateral damage, and he used this seeing media reports about large causalities, while in the fog of war, and not in bit-by-bit synchrony with IDF. Him releasing accidentally gov secrets makes a story fit to print in target media, but is not the only, and I think not the most probable scenario --Resup (talk) 12:52, 22 October 2023 (UTC)
More on the scene and the crater
- Implied direction is from the south-west. To the extent that impact pattern is a reliable indicator. --Diagonal (talk) 11:32, 21 October 2023 (UTC)
Air blast not likely, it was fused/detonated on impact and that left that crater. It would not be that localized otherwise, if crater is left at all. A number of things could dent the roof, there would be pressure wave from the blast, not just downwind flow (the former, unlike the latter, is not directional, once arrives). There would be also intense heat as it shows on infrared and on visuals. That would expand metal, then contract on cooling, and that may end bending down. (Noting, tires are gone, and left car seems torched, while the hood on the right one could be ripped off by the blast and then placed back, untorched). Also people or rescuers may walk on roofs, for whatever reason, out of agitation, to have better view of something, to rescue someone, etc. --Resup (talk) 17:25, 28 October 2023 (UTC)
- I think that's probably right. @MichaKobs also thinks properties of the shock wave would produce that effect seen on the car roofs.
- Paveway IV thought that level of fragmentation not consistent with a carbon composite cased munition. I'm not sure, I don't see as much fragmentation pattern as I would expect. Also it could be due to 1) rubble thrown up on impact 2) due to secondary explosion of car. Also no case fragments reported, if authorities there have been reported correctly...?--Diagonal (talk) 19:43, 2 November 2023 (UTC)
Theoretic Demands
- Vague thoughts on what the characteristics of one weapon system would have to account for and reconcile here: 1) Incoming sound, 2) downward impressions on car roofs 3) apparent directionality of impact 4) lack of major structural damage --Diagonal (talk) 11:20, 21 October 2023 (UTC)
- I guess 2) is probably not significant. The flipped car looks more consistent with detonation on impact from the southwest, than an air burst. --Diagonal (talk) 14:05, 21 October 2023 (UTC)
- I think a glide bomb with small war head (eg GBU 39) looks to fit pretty well with 1) incoming sound, 3) directionality and 4) small yield. Possible stand-off launch from IDF jet over the Mediterranean. My best amateur guess right now. --Diagonal (talk) 14:35, 21 October 2023 (UTC)
- Speculating that 2) the car roofs sag as structural integrity weakened by explosion and fire.
- I guess 2) is probably not significant. The flipped car looks more consistent with detonation on impact from the southwest, than an air burst. --Diagonal (talk) 14:05, 21 October 2023 (UTC)
- Vague thoughts on what the characteristics of one weapon system would have to account for and reconcile here: 1) Incoming sound, 2) downward impressions on car roofs 3) apparent directionality of impact 4) lack of major structural damage --Diagonal (talk) 11:20, 21 October 2023 (UTC)
Supporting claims/evidence for scenarios
(See discussion for more commentary)
Background
- An examination of US and EU weapons used in explosive violence in Gaza, 2021 - AOAV, June 28, 2022
- During the 11 days of combat in May 2021, the IAF deployed a wide variety of explosive weapons in the Gaza Strip, the majority of which were general-purpose gravity bombs such as the Mk-82, Mk-83, and Mk-84, fitted with JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition) kits, which then become the GBU-38, GBU-32 and GBU-31, respectively. Further air-dropped munitions used by Israel during the 11-day conflagration include the bunker-busting 2,000 pound GBU-31(V)4/B, which was used to level entire high-rise buildings in Gaza; the 500-pound laser-guided GBU-54 JDAM; and the 250-pound GBU-39 bomb, which is also known as the Small Diameter Bomb. Furthermore, pictures released by the IAF also provide evidence for their use of the ‘SPICE’ bomb guidance kit, which uses GPS and electro-optical guidance for greater precision.
- Other airborne weapons used by the IDF may have included the small, drone-launched Mikholit missile; use of the Spike / “Tammuz” anti-tank missile; 155mm shells fired from M109A5 self-propelled howitzers; and 120mm tank shells fired from Merkava IV tanks. In addition to this, the IDF also reportedly used Hellfire missiles, and other bombs such as the 2,000-pound GBU-31(V)3 JDAM equipped with BLU-109 bunker-busting warheads. Another type of bunker-busting warhead used by the IDF was the BLU-117, for instance on their GBU-31 or GBU-56 bombs. The IAF deployed mainly F-15I Ra’am, F-16I Sufas, and occasionally F-16C/D Block 40 fighters to carry out the bombing missions on Gaza
- How the IDF invented 'Roof Knocking', the tactic that saves lives in Gaza - Jerusalem Post, MARCH 25, 2021
- After a few more times, the IDF had refined the tactic. It selected a missile developed by Israel Aerospace Industries known for being small, accurate and capable of being configured to carry a limited amount of explosives. After calling and encountering a refusal to leave the home, the air force will first fire one of these missiles on the roof. It will usually be fired into a corner, far from where people might be standing. In some cases, the missiles can be configured to burst in mid-air, minimizing even more the chances of casualties.
- While the IDF doesn’t say much about the weapons it uses, pictures of unexploded ordnance circulated online by Gaza residents show a missile with “Mikholit” written on it on Hebrew next to a stamp of Israel Aerospace Industries’ MBT Missile Division. Mikholit in Hebrew is a small paintbrush, like the kind an artist would use for precise painting. The missile looks exactly like one developed by IAI called “Sledgehammer” which the company says has a range of 20 km., can carry 15-kg. warheads and weighs just 30 kg. It is this missile that Palestinians claim is fired at them from Israeli drones.
- Israel’s technological leap came in the mid-1980s with the rollout of the Popeye, developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems. What made the Popeye unique was that it came with a smokeless rocket engine – meaning it did not leave a trail – it could be launched from a plane around 100 km. away from a target and could then be driven – via datalink – all the way there by an IAF navigator. Its control could even be handed off to another plane as needed.
- The Spike – called “Tamuz” in the army – was a secret until just a few years ago. It was operated by two elite units and was fired from armored personnel carriers. The goal was to use the missiles to surprise and stop future tank invasions. IDF bunkers were stocked with the missiles, which came in different sizes and models, and were appreciated for their high degree of accuracy and lethality. But with warfare changing – tank battles are no longer really a threat to Israel – the IDF needed to find a new use for the Spike and it did, in the air force always on the lookout for new precision-guided munitions.
GBU 39 Small diameter bomb
See also GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb
- Wikipedia
- Backgrounder (pdf) -Boeing
- Specs video - Precision stand off glide bomb designed to minimise collateral damage. See also
- Video of strike in Gaza - attributed as GBU39/31 (unverified) Note incoming sound
- Video: Al-Jazeera - from 1m20s section on 39. Note angle of attack is not vertical, although steep.
- Video: Test range strikes, including some air bursts immediately over target, one with sound
- USA and Germany: massive arms delivery to Israel immediately before the Gaza war (Archived) (AutoTranslate) - Daniel Neun, Radio Utopia, January 10, 2009
- In September 2008, the US Congress approved deliveries of GBU-39 “ bunker crushers ”, 113 kg GPS-guided bombs on Israel.
- IAF receives first batch of Small Diameter Bombs - Jerusalem Post, November 7, 2010
- US Rushes ‘Smart’ Bombs to Israel as Hamas Holds Dozens Hostage - Defence Post, October 11, 2023
- An Israeli Air Force transport aircraft recently flew with the 250-pound (113 kilogram) Small Diameter Bombs from the US to Israel, Bloomberg revealed citing a US official. Israel bought 1,000 GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bombs (SDB) in 2021 for $735 million...The air-launched guided SDB can strike a target 40 miles (64 kilometers) away,..It features a multipurpose penetrating blast-and-fragmentation warhead with a programmable fuze.
Focused lethality Munition
- The GBU-39A/B FLM (Focused Lethality Munition) weapon is an ultra low collateral damage version of the Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) weapon system. It is a multi-purpose, insensitive munition, penetrating, blast/fragmentation warhead for stationary targets...FLM uses a multiphase blast explosive fill developed by the Air Force Research Lab (AFRL) at Eglin AFB. The warhead is designed with a composite case to minimize case fragments.
- Big Bang, Small Space: The USA’s “Focused Lethality Munitions” - Defense Industry Daily, April 19, 2012
- This Small Diameter Bomb variant changes the bomb’s casing and internal fill, in order to produce more devastating effects within a smaller area. A carbon-fiber bomb body disintegrates instead of fragmenting, which adds explosive force nearby but largely removes shrapnel issues beyond. Inside, metal particles turn the explosive material into short-range projectiles. The result is especially useful in urban areas, in situations where friendly elements are close to the impact zone, and in campaigns fought using contemporary American counter-insurgency doctrine.
- Boeing SDB Focused Lethality Munition (Archive pdf) - Boeing, May 2009
- Warhead: 206 lb (93 kg) blast ultra low fragmentation Fuze: electronic safe/arm fuze (ESAF) cockpit selectable functions, including air burst and delayed burst options
- Air Force to buy low-collateral-damage variant of Small Diameter Bomb - Rachel Cohen, Inside Defense, June 25, 2018
- "The FLM is made of carbon fiber and disintegrates upon impact instead of fragmenting, and it has an explosive compound that provides enhanced blast characteristics. The guided weapon provides a standoff range of more than 60 nautical miles to protect aircrews engaging threats in combat."
- COMPOSITE BOMB BODIES - L3 Harris
- A carbon-fiber-wound bomb body disintegrates instead of fragmenting, which adds explosive force nearby, but significantly lowers collateral damage, allowing it to be employed in situations where no other air delivered weapon can be utilized...
- This explanation could account for the lack of aircraft noise overhead, as this has stand off use as a glide bomb. WHich accounts, as well, for an impact that is directional, but at a steep angle - that implies coming from high altitude. It also accounts for the whistle/whoosh sound signature, associated with guiding fins on precision bombs. Use of smaller warheads is also allowed for, consistent with the lack of structural damage. Implied direction is consistent with launch from jet over the Mediterranean. Use of the FLM's carbon composite case would explain the lack of bomb fragments reported at the scene. --Diagonal (talk) 19:47, 22 October 2023 (UTC)
Dense Inert Metal Explosive
- DIME - Global Security
- In mid-October 2006 a team of investigative journalists at RAI Italian television reported that Israel had been using a new weapon in the Gaza Strip, similar to DIME - dense inert metal explosive. The report was produced by the same journalists who claimed without foundation that the US used White Phosphorus (WP) against civilians during attacks on Fallujah. According to the Israeli daily Haaretz, the weapon was launched from drones in the summer of 2006, most of them in July, and led to "abnormally serious" physical injuries. Physicians in the Gaza Strip noted the pattern of wounds they were treating were unusual, with severed legs that showed signs of severe heat at the point of amputation but no metal shrapnel. The American version is still in a testing stage and had not been used on the battlefield at that time. It has not been "declared an illegal weapon", though the weapon was claimed [without described basis] to be "highly carcinogenic and harmful to the environment".
- Dense Inert Metal Explosive (DIME) - Military History Fandom
- Norwegian doctor: Israel used new type of weapon in Gaza - Amira Hass, Haaretz, January 19, 2009 (archived)
JDAM
- https://t.me/NewResistance/25305
- https://twitter.com/PetriKrohn/status/1714767837707870658
- https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/10/wests-pro-israel-position-accelerates-its-loss-of-power.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef02c8d3a07ba1200b#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef02c8d3a07ba1200b
Mikholit air-to-ground missile
- A rudimentary analysis of the crater reveals a direction of travel that suggests that the rocket likely originated from a location situated to the south-southwest of the hospital, which, to some extent, supports the Israeli assertion. However, because the video evidence does not sustain this claim, one cannot jump to the conclusion that the rocket in question came from the PIJ. Moreover, the size of the crater points to a small warhead possessing less than 50 pounds of high explosives, opening the door to the possibility that a different weapon was used that night – not a PIJ rocket and not an Israeli bomb.
- There was another weapon that Israel was making extensive use of in the Gaza conflict – the Mikholit air-to-ground missile, carried on Hermes 450 drones, which were used to conduct so-called “roof knocking” strikes designed to alert residents of buildings designated for destruction to flee. The Mikholit was also used to carry out precise strikes designed to neutralize a target while minimizing collateral damage.
SPICE 250 Bomb
- US to Supply Israel with ‘Smart Bombs’ Amidst Escalating Conflict - Breaking News Network, November 7, 2023
- U.S. WEAPONS TRANSFERS TO ISRAEL SHROUDED IN SECRECY — BUT NOT UKRAINE - Ken Klippenstein, The Intercept, November 7, 2023
- https://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/spice-250-precision-guided-munition/?cf-view
- https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/meet-spice-250-bomb-israels-smart-weapon-can-choose-its-own-targets-94051
M270
Hellfire
- https://twitter.com/ionacraig/status/1714567591937675614
- they have different warheads, lots of fire may indicate a thermobaric family (of fuel based sort), but this is only plausible if there is a VIP target; no evidence that there was. Failed rocket, especially if tried for increased range, may look similar --Resup (talk) 11:11, 19 October 2023 (UTC)
- Hellfire strike video, Kabul , 2022. Seems of smaller scale ?
- After Weighing the Evidence, Israel Appears Responsible for the Bombing of the Al-AHLI Hospital - Larry Johnson, October 20, 2023
- An MQ-9 carrying thermobaric versions of the hellfire missile (something we’ve supplied to Israel) is very possible. That particular version of the missile (AGM-114N) provides a particularly nasty thermobaric/incendiary blast
- video forensic analysis makes case for attack helicopter missile
- https://www.newsweek.com/israel-apache-helicopter-hamas-hellfire-missiles-gaza-1833372
- https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/agm-114-employ.htm - for reference on trajectories etc
Qassam or other Palestinian rocket
- Claimed by IDF.
- https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/18/ahli-arab-hospital-bombing-came-from-gaza-clue-israel-hamas/
- https://riamediabank.ru/media/8534008.html?context=list&list_sid=list_316828037 Crater from Hamas shelling in Ashkelon, Israel, 10.10.2023, RIA Novosti
- https://twitter.com/CL4Syr/status/1715687076946231787
- https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1715527433930076402 - Disparages 'disinformation' sources with opposing narrative
Rocket used by Palestinian group of external origin or design
Externally made or designed weapons can find their way to Gaza
Noted, GLSDB is given to Ukraine. Announcement of the package was made in February, 2023. Actual delivery is uncertain. --Resup (talk) 16:39, 29 October 2023 (UTC)
False/debunked evidence
- https://web.archive.org/web/20231018101028/http://web.archive.org/screenshot/https://x.com/FightDetector/status/1714371936220741985?s=20
- https://www.newsweek.com/deleted-israeli-video-adds-confusion-around-gaza-hospital-blast-1835596
- https://www.reuters.com/fact-check/video-missile-strike-near-gaza-hospital-predates-october-2023-war-2023-10-18/
Death Toll?
I don't see how this adds up to 400-500 fatalities. --Diagonal (talk) 20:05, 2 November 2023 (UTC)
- No evidence of inflated mortality reporting from the Gaza Ministry of Health - Lancet, December 6, 2023
Other questions
Why did authorities not collect and produce the fragments in the photos above? Have authorities been reported correctly?--Diagonal (talk) 20:05, 2 November 2023 (UTC)
The 'roof knocking' strike on October 14, and apparent warning to evacuate the hospital both look to undermine any line that IDF was just responding to fresh intel in the midst of battle with Hamas. --Diagonal (talk) 07:17, 4 November 2023 (UTC)
Targeting
- ‘A mass assassination factory’: Inside Israel’s calculated bombing of Gaza - Yuval Abraham, 972 Magazine, November 30, 2023
- In one case discussed by the sources, the Israeli military command knowingly approved the killing of hundreds of Palestinian civilians in an attempt to assassinate a single top Hamas military commander. “The numbers increased from dozens of civilian deaths [permitted] as collateral damage as part of an attack on a senior official in previous operations, to hundreds of civilian deaths as collateral damage,” said one source.
- Is that a reference to Al Ahli strike? Or was the Hospital just considered a power target? --Diagonal (talk) 20:19, 6 December 2023 (UTC)
Michael Kobs' Report, Discussion
For the sake of argument and understanding,and with respect to @MichaKobs analysis:
- The crushed roof on the flipped car
- The high pock marks high and behind the consensus trajectory
Might suggest air burst immediately over the car. A multi-phase (pressure/momentum) blast with the fuse part producing the crater. It is said that GBU39 is accurate to the size of a car wheel. If the Israelis were targeting that vehicle, would a ground level impact detonation leave the topside of the car so crushed? just through rolling? How are 1 and 2 explained?
2. due to reflected blast waves?
--Diagonal (talk) 15:12, 10 November 2023 (UTC)
- The pock marks behind suggest, to me, a non-conventional explosive/munition.
A multi-phase explosion detonated immediately before impact not ruled out, in my view.Was looking at this again. I guess not on air burst as only half circle of spray seen. --Diagonal (talk) 13:14, 11 November 2023 (UTC)
- Also not convinced that there is any frag mark pattern on the flipped car's door as per File:Al Ahli Hospital attack hifiEN.pdf (p22) --Diagonal (talk) 19:23, 10 November 2023 (UTC)
- p36: compression of car roofs attributed to streamlining of cars, but a car with rear facing the blast wave also shows effect.
Properties of bomb
- The weapon used combines a flat wide fragment cloud with a powerful fireball and blast wave similar to an aerosol bomb (FAE). However, a crater due to the explosive effect is completely missing, which argues against the use of a large amount of HE explosives. Michael Kobs
- This Small Diameter Bomb variant changes the bomb’s casing and internal fill, in order to produce more devastating effects within a smaller area. A carbon-fiber bomb body disintegrates instead of fragmenting, which adds explosive force nearby but largely removes shrapnel issues beyond. Inside, metal particles turn the explosive material into short-range projectiles. The result is especially useful in urban areas, in situations where friendly elements are close to the impact zone, and in campaigns fought using contemporary American counter-insurgency doctrine.
- A DIME weapon consists of a carbon fiber casing filled with a mixture of explosive and very dense micro shrapnel, consisting of very small particles (1–2 mm) or powder of heavy metal. Upon detonation of the explosive, the casing disintegrates into extremely small particles, as opposed to larger pieces of shrapnel which results from the fragmentation of a metal shell casing.
Dense Inert Metal Explosive
- DIME - Global Security
- In mid-October 2006 a team of investigative journalists at RAI Italian television reported that Israel had been using a new weapon in the Gaza Strip, similar to DIME - dense inert metal explosive. The report was produced by the same journalists who claimed without foundation that the US used White Phosphorus (WP) against civilians during attacks on Fallujah. According to the Israeli daily Haaretz, the weapon was launched from drones in the summer of 2006, most of them in July, and led to "abnormally serious" physical injuries. Physicians in the Gaza Strip noted the pattern of wounds they were treating were unusual, with severed legs that showed signs of severe heat at the point of amputation but no metal shrapnel. The American version is still in a testing stage and had not been used on the battlefield at that time. It has not been "declared an illegal weapon", though the weapon was claimed [without described basis] to be "highly carcinogenic and harmful to the environment".
- Dense Inert Metal Explosive (DIME) - Military History Fandom
- Norwegian doctor: Israel used new type of weapon in Gaza - Amira Hass, Haaretz, January 19, 2009 (archived)
- The unknown weapon appears to mainly affect the body's lower part, he said. It severs the legs, leaving burns around the stump, small punctures in the skin and internal bleeding. According to Fosse, these injuries appear to be caused by a pressure wave generated when a missile hits the ground. His best guess, he said, is that the pressure wave is caused by a dense inert metal explosive, or DIME, a type of bomb developed to minimize collateral damage. A military expert working for Human Rights Watch also told Haaretz that the nature of the wounds and descriptions given by Gazans made it seem likely that Israel used DIMEs.