Mariupol market shelling

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Analysis

Reports and Resources

ACLOS Findings

Multiple Firing Directions

So far on the discussion page, we have found impact-based evidence for at least three distinct firing directions involved: from the east, the northeast, and the south. This might matter, since almost everyone else on both sides seems to pick just one direction when blaming the other side.

  • Human Rights Watch - all east, except a little bit maybe northeast. Presumed culprit: rebels. Motive: mistakes when aiming for security post.
  • Ukraine@War: VERY CLEAR: EAST! Uses a map that says anything south or north would be government-held.
  • Alleged by SBU local spotter: from Vinogradne, due south. Motive: Mistake.
  • Some who wanted to blame Kiev claimed firing from the west, to implicate rebels. But we've yet to see an accurate forensic case supporting the west part.
  • There is mixed and inconclusive evidence for rebel forces being in all these directions but west. For some disputed distance out in each direction, government forces are at least as able to operate.

It seems, especially by HRW's sizeable but incomplete study, that the solid majority of impacts were from the east. However, there are at least the few we document from the other directions. Multiple directions suggests two important things about the culprits and their motives:

  • The culprits were well-organized in the area to be able to fire from 3 directions.
  • They were not likely to all make the same mistakes in missing security posts and killing civilians instead. It appears more like terrorism - either real, or tailor-made to pin on someone else.