Talk:Mariupol hospital bombing

Did Russia really hit the Yavoriv military base on the Polish border?
The Yavoriv military base near Lviv, just 10 km from the Polish border was hit by ballistic missiles this morning. The base is the home of IPSC (international peacekeeping and security centre), used by NATO to train Ukrainian troops. Telegram channels claim that among the 35 killed were NATO soldiers.

BBC claims (like Trump, without providing any evidence) that the base was hit by "Russia". Wikipedia claims that the the base was hit by "30 rockets", which seems exaggerated considering that the base is located 1000 km from Russia. If Russia had hit the place, they would most likely used a few air or sea-launched cruise missiles.

A video from the site shows yet another unmistakable Tochka-U crater. Tochkas are effective against underground bunkers and command posts, but once they burrow themselves into the ground, they may leave buildings just 10 meters away undamaged. This is exactly what we see on the video. The impact caused two small fires, but the brick building just 10 meters away did not receive any structural damage. Incidentally, the crater happens to be in exactly the same spot where this geolocated 360 degree photo was taken.

Based on the video, it seems likely that Ukraine fired Tochkas at their own base, killing NATO forces in the hope they it would provoke NATO to launch a world war against Russia. This is exactly the same modus operandi I claimed happened at the Mariupol maternity hospital incident. (See Initial forensic analysis)

Alternatives? Cruise missiles fly in a horizontal trajectory. If they hit something, it is usually the side or wall of a building. If they are smart enough, they are programmed to enter the building through a window. It would be very difficult to create a bunker-busting cruise missile. The warhead would need enormous kinetic energy to penetrate 4 meters of ground. A hypersonic Zirkon would have the energy. But why would Russia send a cruise missile 1000 km away just to dig a hole in the ground?

The only short or medium range ballistic missile in Russia's arsenal is the ballistic version of the 9K720 Iskander missile. It has a bunker-busting warhead as one option. It's range is limited by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty to 500 km. Kiev is 500 km from the base. The nearest plases in Russia over 600 km away. If the weapon used was a Russian 9K720 Iskander missile with a bunker-busting warhead, then it would have to be fired from Belarus.

-- Petri Krohn (talk) 15:15, 13 March 2022 (UTC)

Kalibrs specs are not in open domain, and Iskanders, possibly not fully in the open. Text here suggests they may fly "aeroballistically"/"quasiballistically", eg like a cruise missile with most of trajectory resembling ballistic. Warhead mass of about 200 to 400 kg seems comparable across Tochka, Isaknder, Kalibr. Range, looks like may vary, by fuel vs warhead if for nothing else. Who fired, don't know, pro-Russ sources like Rusvesna, Cassad seem to assume it's Russia, but they are not official sources. Probably, at this stage of affairs, military targets anywhere in Ukraine cannot be assumed safe. But Ukrainians capable of any provocations, too. --Resup (talk) 17:38, 13 March 2022 (UTC) Konashenkov acknowledged strike: '' In the morning of March 13 the training centers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the village of Starichi and at the military training ground Yavorovskiy were attacked with high-precision long-range weapons. At these facilities, the Kiev regime deployed a point for the training and combat coordination of foreign mercenaries before being sent to the areas of hostilities against Russian military personnel, as well as a storage base for weapons and military equipment coming from foreign countries. As a result of the strike, up to 180 foreign mercenaries and a large consignment of foreign weapons were destroyed.'' (Ukrainian sources apparently claim 9 killed and 57 wounded). --Resup (talk) 19:15, 13 March 2022 (UTC)
 * BBC: Officials say at least 35 people were killed and 134 injured in the attack on the Yavoriv base
 * Another brief video here

--Resup (talk) 21:15, 13 March 2022 (UTC)