Talk:Crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17/Forensics

Air-to-air missile or 30 mm autocannon?
The damage will tell us it was an air-to-air missile with rod warhead fired from the front, that exploded when its proximity fuse passed the cockpit window. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:04, 28 July 2014 (UTC)


 * More specifically,I don't think the angle of impact can tell us anything. Maybe I was the only one that for a minute thought it could - if it scraped the top of the wing, it must've been fired from above the wing, behind and to the left. But it could have just leveled out there after flying up, turning, etc. Other clues are what they are - payload type and size, dynamics I don't know. I note Charles here said the damage looks less like a rod than regular shrapnel, if that matters. For my part, I'm suspecting Surface fired, partly because the people who should know (Kiev) keep saying that and claiming they can show you the exact launcher. Maybe they can and did. Maybe the jet was there to help explain why the separatists did it, and to observe, or something. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:14, 29 July 2014 (UTC)
 * This analysis say it was a 30 mm autocannon. Maybe. (English summary + another) One thing is sure; it was not a Buk or fired from the surface. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:22, 29 July 2014 (UTC)
 * Russian analysis says it is not a Buk. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:36, 29 July 2014 (UTC)


 * Since that's what I suspect at the moment, some discussion should follow. Will check those links soon. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:42, 29 July 2014 (UTC)


 * Effect of 25mm and 30mm cannon shells Gives an extremely good idea of what cannon shell damage looks like. I don't see any damage pattern on MH17 wreckage to match that. On the other hand the damage pattern from a proximity detonated shrapnel warhead is entirely consistent with the damage. E.g.


 * [[File:Shrapnel_sample.png]]


 * An expanding rod warhead is eliminated as there is no damage match. E.g.


 * [[File:Hobartdamage2.jpg]]


 * Damage to the left wingtip is variously being touted as an R60 air-to-air missile expanding rod strike or a 30mm cannon strike. It's not an expanding rod strike as it scrapes rather than penetrates the skin in a line. It also does not match a 30mm cannon strike as there is no detonation pattern and 30mm rounds don't 'bounce' as they skip along a wing surface. It's suggested that this damage is actually from later debris falling on the wing.


 * [[File:Wingtip_damage.png]]


 * --Charles Wood (talk) 03:39, 30 July 2014 (UTC)


 * Wing damage after/during crash: I thought that too on first look, but based on nothing. Since then I decided the irregularity of the windward edge of that tear suggests it was rippling with airflow as it was torn, so it was airborne at the moment, anyway. That's a lot of scattered, forceful, linear action lining up with the cockpit to be coincidental (brush damage?) - I think this is munitions damage. Another gouge I found interesting is a more likely mechanical cut from the plane falling apart after the attack. Seen closer up and seen in context (just southeast of picture's center) --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:58, 30 July 2014 (UTC)

Not a Buk?
Responding to Petri's non-BUK analysis links: the German analysis - the second guy sounds fishy. Most of the damage looks too irregular to be bullet holes. But then some of them, especially on the left here, do look consistent to me. I'm no weapons expert. It's possible it was hit with two different things at different times. (image below is huge - full size in new window gives some great detail) --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:49, 30 July 2014 (UTC)

Okay, the Russian analysis - Google translated: "The probability that a passenger plane was shot down by a missile fired from "Buka", is negligible, said Maj. Gen. Cruz in an interview with "Military-Industrial Courier."
 * "All openings of submunitions on the paneling" Boeing "suggests that undermining warhead was done bottom-side. But our "Bukovskaya" missile hit the top, making the "hill" in front of goal. That is the only way, not the other way "- says Cruz. 
 * Is that him thinking like I was for a minute, that it must have been first fired from above, because of the wing damage? He also points to a smoke trail that should be visible for a BUK missile when there isn't (worth looking into) and he thinks they'd need more training than they had, while showing no sign of knowing how much training the relevant people had. Not too impressed with "Cruz." --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:49, 30 July 2014 (UTC)

I agree, it looks as if was hit with two different things. It is not possible that this happened at different times. The "two different things" can be explained by a mixture of armor-piercings and fragmentation ammo. (This is I suppose what a Su-25 would normally carry when attacking tank columns.) The real problem here is that I do not really know if these are exit or entry holes. I see some blast damage on the outside. The "cockpit roof / side panel" piece seems to show soot and slight buckling caused by an explosion on the outside. How long would it take for the frags to explode after passing through the aluminium skin?

Adam, could you create a stereoscopic image of the holes? Take two images of the same area, scale and cut them to exactly the same size. Two .jpg images would be good to flip-flop between. Maybe a flashing .gif for social media. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 13:23, 30 July 2014 (UTC)
 * Hm, maybe. Never tried that, they'll be at different angles, etc. Explain in e-mail. I'm slow today. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:16, 30 July 2014 (UTC)


 * You need to be aware the panel has two different metals above and below the join line. The upper material is in immediate proximity to the windows and is much thicker and stronger - probably titanium. The lower material is Aluminum alloy - perhaps 80 - 160 thou thick. The splash pattern on the thicker/stronger material at the top is characteristic of high velocity impact in strong materials with subsequent cratering. The lower damage is characteristic of particles punching their way through thin metal with little or zero cratering effect.
 * --Charles Wood (talk) 14:20, 30 July 2014 (UTC)
 * Would this cratering be visible on the ingress or egress side? Or both? I would expect the the patterns to have radial structure, but they all seem to be tilted the same way. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 15:13, 30 July 2014 (UTC)