Khakovka Dam collapse

Dam background

 * Wikipedia: Khakovka Dam
 * Wikipedia: North Crimean Canal
 * MegaConstrucciones.net - Kakhovka Reservoir - Photos

Event, Immediate aftermath - June 6, 2023

 * Seismic signals recorded from an explosion at the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine - NORSAR, June 7, 2023
 * Data from regional seismic stations show clear signals on Tuesday 6 June at 2:54 local time (01:54 Norwegian time). Time and location (coordinates: 46.7776, 33.37) coincide with reports in the media about the collapse of the Kakhovka dam. The signals indicate that there was an explosion.
 * The magnitude estimate is between 1 and 2.
 * UPDATE: Based on new analysis, we have also observed weak signals from an earlier seismic event from approximately 02:35 (local time in Ukraine) originating from the direction of the Kakhovka Dam.


 * Video: Zoka's channel on Telegram - June 6, 2023
 * Video: Astra Press on Telegram - June 8, 2023

Prior incidents/speculation



 * In southern Ukraine, Russian forces guard strategic dam - AFP, May 23, 2022
 * AFP visited the site of the Kakhovka power station and dam as part of a press tour organised by the Russian army, accompanied at all times by Russian soldiers armed with machine guns.Even though it is located away from the front line that runs further north, Russians vigilantly guard the strategic site that they say has been subject to attempts at "sabotage". "There were attempts to bring in explosive substances, but they were all thwarted," says Vladimir Leontyev, a Russia-appointed head of the civil and military administration of the Kakhovka district.


 * The source reported that two guards of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station died due to the collision of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with the station. - RIA Novosti (Mirrored), July 18, 2022
 * Putin's Right Hand Man Narrowly Avoids Ukraine Ambush–Report - Isabel van Brugen, Newsweek, July 19, 2022
 * Citing sources in the Kherson region, Russian journalist Semyon Pegov wrote on his Telegram channel that Kirienko visited the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, and then met with local Russian officials. When the meeting ended, and officials began to leave, Ukraine's armed forces attacked the hydroelectric power station, according to the journalist.


 * Russians cover their movements using civilian transport at Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant - Pravda.ua, August 6, 2022
 * Fake: Russian Specialists to Modernize Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, Raise Capacity by 30% - StopFake, August 9, 2022
 * TASS, RT, Rambler, Nikolayevsky Vestnik, Kherson News all carried stories promising a 30% increase in power capacity after Russian specialists finish their “modernization” of the Kahkhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant.


 * The bridge in the area of Kakhovka Hydro Power Plant is no longer suitable for use – OC “South” - Miltarnyi, August 10, 2022
 * As previously reported, the Defense Forces of Ukraine continue to attack bridges in the area of occupied Kherson. On August 8, they yet again targeted the Antonivskyi bridge and the dam in Nova Kakhovka.


 * Ukrainian forces struck bridge over dam in Nova Kakhovka - Ukrinform, August 12, 2022
 * Ukraine says it has taken out vital bridge in occupied Kherson - BBC News, August 13, 2022
 * The destruction of the road bridge of the Nova Kakhovka dam was ensured, with the result that it was taken out of operation," the Ukrainian army's Operational Command South posted to Facebook.
 * Video: Drone footage of damage to roadway via Readovka - @mylordbebo on Twitter


 * Ukrainian forces keep shelling Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant — official - Tass, September 3, 2022
 * MLRS Himars fired a record number of missiles at Novaya Kakhovka overnight - Avia.pro, September 6, 2022


 * Factbox-Is the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine About to Be Blown? - Reuters, October 21, 2022
 * Kakhovka reservoir increases water discharges in case of possible destruction of HPP - Am.News, October 22, 2022
 * Water is discharged downstream of the Dnieper from the Kakhovka reservoir to lower the level and volume of water in it and minimize damage in case the HPP is destroyed, said Vladimir Leontyev, head of the Novokakhovsky urban district administration in the Kherson region, RIA Novosti reported.


 * People endure daily shelling in Nova Kakhovka - Reuters Videos, October 31, 2022
 * Ukraine's Russian-held Nova Kakhovka dam damaged in shelling, Russian media report - Reuters, November 6, 2022
 * Russian state media: Ukraine’s Armed Forces strike Kakhovka HPP using HIMARS, one of the missiles hits dam lock - Novaya Gazeta, November 6, 2022
 * Explainer: Could Ukraine’s Kakhovka Dam Be Destroyed in Russia’s Kherson Retreat? - James Beardsworth, Moscow Times, November 10, 2022 (Updated Nov, 30)
 * New damage to major dam near Kherson after Russian retreat - Maxar satellite - Reuters, November 11, 2022
 * Antonivka Bridge blown up, Russian troops lose foothold on right bank of Dnipro and brace themselves for defense, says war expert - The Insider, November 11, 2022
 * @EUFreeCitizen - RV journalists confirmed the blowing up of the bridge across the #Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station... November 12, 2022


 * Inside the Ukrainian counteroffensive that shocked Putin and reshaped the war - Isabelle Khurshudyan, Paul Sonne, Serhiy Morgunov and Kamila Hrabchuk, The Washington Post, December 29, 2022
 * Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages. The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort. He held off.

Chronologies
 * Russia is draining a massive Ukrainian reservoir, endangering a nuclear plant - Geoff Brumfiel, Connie Hanzhang Jin, Jacob Fenton, Meredith Rizzo, Julian Hayda, NPR, February 10, 2023
 * Telegram video: Supernova_plus Ukrainians claim a FPV drone hit on roof of the HPP - February 12, 2023
 * RIA Novosti: Kiev ordered to intensify the shelling of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station - Social Bites, March 12, 2023
 * RIA Novosti: Kiev ordered to intensify the bombardment of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power plan - The Eastern Herald, March 12, 2023
 * A new video from the Kakhov HPP indicates the continuation of uncontrolled water discharge. The flooded coast of Nova Kakhovka and the positions of the occupiers (Machine Translation) - Investigator, May 16, 2023
 * Chronology of the shelling by the Armed Forces of Ukraine of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power: - @mylordbebo, June 7, 2023
 * About the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric station ( Chronology ) - Russian Foreign Ministry, June 10, 2023

Damaged Sluice Gate
Footage March 2023 (Date unconfirmed - Looks like summer weather) It seems that this was the damage reported by Russian media on November 6, 2023. Turbulent flow patterns from the dam are seen in satellite photos from November onwards.
 * Video: @novakakhovka_ua March 11, 2023 - New video from the #Kakhovka Dam. The water level is dropping drastically.
 * Geoff Brumfiel - Twitter thread March 12, 2023 - Video and Photos of damage to sluice gate
 * Adam Larson: As far back as Nov. 12, there's turbulence from this leakage, but no such sign on October 18 (see images used above). This gate was probably damaged in between those dates.


 * RIA Novosti - ...one rocket hit the dam gateway, there is destruction, an emergency service representative of the Kherson region told reporters.
 * TASS -  Five missiles were shot down by air defense units, one hit the Kakhov Dam gateway, which was destroyed, "the service representative said. The representative of the administration of the Novokakhovsky city district Ruslan Agayev added that the missile strike on the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric station did not cause critical destruction, the dam is intact.
 * Interfax - "Today at 10:00, 6 HIMARS were hit. The air defense units shot down 5 missiles, one hit the gateway of the Kakhov dam, which was destroyed, "the emergency services spokesman told reporters.

This incident would also seem to correlate with comments a Ukrainian commander subsequently made to the Washington Post reporters: 


 * Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages. The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort. He held off.

The Lock and its Road bridge
--
 * @obretix - HIMARS missile strike at the lock in Nova Kakhovka https://google.com/maps?ll=46.774181,33.374136&q=46.774181,33.374136&hl=en&t=h&z=16 captured on Sentinel-2 satellite image on 29 Aug 2022 at 08:47:33UTC
 * Twitter thread: Special Kherson Cat - Pro Ukrainian account thread on developments at the Dam and Lock Aug-Dec '22
 * Russian troops trying to restore crossing near Kakhovka power plant, satellite imagery shows - EuromaidanPress, September 19, 2022
 * The invaders are trying to rebuild the crossing at the Kakhovka Dam - Militarnyi, September 19, 2023


 * Some sources from Adam Larson's blog piece:


 * August 21, 24
 * @cyrptobarbossa - ''NOVA KAKHOVKA DAM/LOCK: Russian convoy was targeted while attempting crossing the Lock. Recently Lock was targeted 2 times during 24/08 and once on 21/08. I assume that here we see the result of latest attack.
 * Views show major damage, flipped military vehicles and in some view, killed Russian soldiers. The location is on the road to the dam, at the twin buildings flanking the eastern canal.''
 * Video: ,
 * August 29
 * @glasnostgone - Smoke is rising from the canal section of the Nova Kakhovka bridge - not the Hydroelectric Power Plant, which is further along the bridge. #Ukraine's hit this bridge area numerous times & each time made sure it missed the hydroelectric dam.

(Pro)Ukrainian accusations





 * Nova Kakhovka residents heard explosions before flooding of Kakhovka HPP: Here’s what we know about the destruction of the dam on the Dnipro - The Insider, June 6, 2023
 * Norwegian scientists say Kakhovka dam detonated from within, Russia hampers Kherson evacuation. What happened on the front line on June 8? - The Insider, June 9, 2023
 * Why the Evidence Suggests Russia Blew Up the Kakhovka Dam - The New York Times, June 16, 2023 Mirrored here
 * Russia is highly likely behind Ukraine dam collapse, experts say - Anthony Deutsch, Reuters, June 17, 2023
 * Evidence suggests Russia blew Kakhovka dam in Ukraine - New York Times - Reuters, June 18, 2023
 * Kakhovka collapse: image emerges of apparently explosive-laden car at dam - The Guardian, June 19, 2023

Russian accusations

 * Kakhovka HPP continues to collapse, water is discharged uncontrollably — mayor - Tass, June 6, 2023
 * Ukrainian forces shelled the Kakhovka HPP in the early morning hours on Tuesday, presumably using missiles fired from an Olkha multiple launch rocket system (MLRS). Slide gate valves on the plant’s dam collapsed as a result of the shelling, triggering an uncontrolled discharge of water.


 * About the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric station ( Chronology ) - Russian Foreign Ministry, June 10, 2023
 * Automatic Translation:
 * For the first time, information on mining by Ukrainian military dams and hydraulic structures of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric station appeared on September 15, 2014. Voenkor.Info agency reports indicated that the sappers of the Armed Forces began installing engineering ammunition at the indicated facilities in order to avoid taking them under control of « separatists » New Russia. Kakhovskaya hydroelectric station came under control of the Russian military on the first day of the SVO – February 24, 2022. No fighting was carried out in the dam area. When retreating, Ukrainian sappers mined only the lock mechanisms of the North Krym Canal. The explosion was prevented...
 * In total, over the summer-autumn of 2022, more than three hundred missiles were fired from the RSE « HIMARS »...
 * On March 14, 2023, the head of the Novokakhovsky district, Vladimir Leontyev, said that the hydroelectric station was not only achieved to regular shelling, but also the DRG of the Armed Forces regularly tried to penetrate its territory and dam. According to him, snipers are also actively working, which do not allow repair and maintenance work at hydraulic structures.
 * Such methodological attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the hydroelectric station led to the destruction of its structures that began on June 6, 2023 and the uncontrolled discharge of water from the Kakhov reservoir downstream of the Dnieper.


 * Methodical Ukrainian strikes trigger Kakhovka HPP collapse — Russian Foreign Ministry - Tass, June 10, 2023
 * Knew About Kiev's Plan to Attack Kakhovka Dam, Refused to 'Stop It' - Russian Diplomat - Sputnik, June 15, 2023

Possible causes, attributions



 * Satellite images show the Kakhovka dam was already partially damaged days before it collapsed - Matthew Loh, Business Insider, June 7, 2023
 * The BBC published two images of the roadway that show the bridge's deteriorating condition between Thursday and Friday. The image from Friday, obtained by the BBC, shows a section of roadway missing from the bridge — damage that was not present on Thursday. 


 * Ukraine dam: What we know about Nova Kakhovka incident - BBC News, June 8, 2023
 * Industry specialists assess damage on Ukraine’s breached Nova Kakhovka dam - ROB HAKIMIAN, New Civil Engineer, 08 JUN, 2023
 * Investigating the source of the damag e further, Barr added: “The water level was at a record high before the breach, but usually a failure caused by overtopping in a dam like this would initiate on the earthen embankments and not on the reinforced concrete spillway, which is designed to manage regular discharges of water. If the sluice gates had been damaged leading to an uncontrolled discharge of water, this wouldn't be expected to cause the progressive collapse of the main concrete structure without significant additional damage elsewhere.” These factors have led Barr to support the claims that the failure was initiated by an explosion, though the subsequent damage is likely to have removed the evidence.


 * KAKHOVKA DAM DESTRUCTION - Technical overview and events prior to the dam collapse - MIKE MIHAJLOVIC, Black Mountain Analysis, 8 June, 2023
 * Ukrainian shelling of the top of the dam has consequence that likely the sluice gate and guides were damaged. The impact of the heavy 155 mm shells or the HIMARS warheads in the proximity of these mechanisms can definitely cause different levels of damage. The most likely damage is that the sluice gate may be stuck in the current position and the gentry cranes were not able to do any manipulations...


 * If the regulator gates are not functional the water mass will impact the dam creating enormous static pressure but also the waves will be formed adding additional stress in the form of induced vibrations.

High water level of Kakhovka reservoir

 * @200_Zoka thread, May 4, 2023 - Water level in Kakhovka reservoir in Zaporozhye region risen by 17 m and almost reached critical level...Dam in Nova Kahovka cannot be opened due to damage and front line. So likely that it will burst in some moment and flood a good part of Herson
 * Water level in the Kakhovka Reservoir in Ukraine from January 6, 2020 to June 9, 2023, by satellite series - Statista, June 2023
 * Did Ukraine Break the Dnipro River and the Nova Kakhovka Dam? - Monitor on Massacre Marketing, May 21, 2023

Analysis

 * Nova Kakhova Dam Breach - Updated (12:15 UTC) - Moon of Alabama, June 6, 2023
 * OVERVIEW OF ATTACK ON KAKHOVKA DAM: CUI BONO? - SouthFront, June 6, 2023
 * Russo-Ukrainian War: Dam! A different kind of leak - Big Serge, June 7, 2023
 * Postmortem Analysis on Kakhovka Dam Breach - Simplicius The Thinker, June 7, 2023
 * KAKHOVKA DAM DESTRUCTION - Technical overview and events prior to the dam collapse - MIKE MIHAJLOVIC, Black Mountain Analysis, 8 June, 2023
 * What Caused the Collapse of the Nova Kakhovka Dam? - Monitor on Massacre Marketing, June 13, 2023
 * Did Ukraine Break the Dnipro River and the Nova Kakhovka Dam? - Monitor on Massacre Marketing, June 21, 2023
 * What caused the Kakhovka Dam to collapse? Some key takeaways: - Dissonant Notes, June 24, 2023