Talk:Mariupol market shelling

NAF advances to Mariupol
Does anybody have a clue what's going on, any curious chatter etc? I do not read/hear anything definite, just some unclear noise. --Resup (talk) 12:08, 9 October 2014 (UTC)
 * Seems to be under Right Sector control, so no protests going on. They had volunteers digng anti-tank ditches some tim ago, but I've not heard fresh news about this for a while. OSCE a few weeks ago mentioned this, and the fact that they could only get about 50 volunteers for the job. Also from OSCE reports, there are checkpoints on every road or track leading to Mariupol (have seen up to #14 mentioned). Oct. 1 they commented most checkpoints are closed to civilian traffic (but said nothing about what traffic DOES get through).
 * "The SMM[monitoring mission] in Mariupol (115km south of Donetsk) met with two representatives of “Youth Union”, a NGO staffed with volunteers. Since 21 August 2014, with funding from the “Rinat Akhmetov Foundation”, the NGO is operating a large logistical centre at the Azovskiy market, from which, according to the interlocutor, some 60 to 80 tons of humanitarian assistance are distributed daily to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions." Have never seen corresponding arrivals of aid mentioned; assume it is not going to the "rebel" areas.
 * On October 5 "Ukrainian checkpoint commanders at various locations to the north and north-east of Mariupol (113 km south of Donetsk city) told the SMM of shelling directed at the checkpoints the previous evening. The SMM – whilst at the checkpoints – neither observed nor heard shelling, nor saw any indication that shelling may have recently taken place."
 * Oct. 6 they reported a doubling of traffic volume from Donetsk into Mariupol in the last 24 hours. without specifying what type of traffic and what actual numbers. KatKan (talk) 12:44, 9 October 2014 (UTC)


 * Tymchuk says 2 columns entering Novoazovsk, about 10 vehicles each, covered (curtain side) trucks, fuel tankers etc,he hints from border area, facing in direction of Mariupol. OSCE reports unusually heavy civilian traffic into Mariupol, Ukie check points say it's Donetsk people going to get pensions and buy food. Nearby villages doing protests, telling check points to move so the villages don't get shelled, they refuse to sign a petition being collected by a Ukie woman. Tweet says told by phone Mariupol hospital seen 200 rape victims. Zakharchenko said they're taking back all their territory. All this to me adds up to, any moment now they might try to take Mariupol, with help of "pensioner shoppers" who stayed in to organise ??? The place is way overdue for being rescued from the Right Sector. And this time no way they can blame any atrocities on anyone else.  funny how checkpoints get shelled but just missed, Greek funeral procession gets hit spot on. They're using spotters with radio and trying to blame the rebels. No moon the next few nights.KatKan (talk) 14:02, 19 October 2014 (UTC)
 * Don't know. But with no breakthrough on the diplomatic front with acceptable consequences on the ground, for as long as it stays that way, something else may happen. --Resup (talk) 15:00, 19 October 2014 (UTC)
 * If I, sitting in Australia, can get a whiff of what's happening in the Ukie "liberated" territories, the guys up close would really know. They are not going to give up or give in and let 3/4 of their people be wiped out, painfully. Every death may not turn people pro-Russian, but will certainly turn many anti-Kiev. Look at this advice from "partisan" leader in Kharkiv. "Our job is to wait for the main forces of the Resistance". KatKan (talk) 20:07, 19 October 2014 (UTC)

Novorossia reports itself standing on the outskirts of Mariupol, seeing the city and not seeing much of a garrison. Seems to be a deadlocked situation, negotiating this with Kiev is close to impossible especially on this issue; they perhaps can just take it, but it kind of feels wrong and they may not looking forward to have all those barking politico dogs another time. So what are they going to do, just sit there and wait for Maidan number 3 (or a Pinochet second coming?). Neither of those appears to be a particularly attractive option. --Resup (talk) 06:56, 4 November 2014 (UTC)

BBC reports that Poroshenko ordered reinforcements to main cities, including Mariuopol. --Resup (talk) 21:50, 4 November 2014 (UTC)

UAF shells villages using "Grad" and "Uragan" (+shown on video )--Resup (talk) 23:07, 4 November 2014 (UTC)

From Cassad @ 21:06 comment and map: Near Mariupol, opolchenie control Lebedinskoe, and try to advance on Vinogradnoe. --Resup (talk) 03:32, 20 January 2015 (UTC)

Update on rusvesna. Entitled "Liberation of Mariupol started. Ukrainian Army is in retreat". A photo is provided. Ukrainian source, civilian casualties reported. MSM carry news on that (CNN) --but I do not see reports on Gorlovka or accurate reporting on Donetsk. Cassad: Grads of the junta (Azov/UAF) were fired from the Old Crimea area (according to another version, from the Airport of Mariupol. As a result, smoke from fires covered the outskirts of the city. Locals say that that was under-shot by UAF. Simultaneously, opolchenie is storming junta positions in the area of Vinogradnoe.   --Resup (talk) 09:58, 24 January 2015 (UTC)
 * The (unconfirmed) story now appears to be that opolchenie was lead to believe there was a position of UAF at the outskirts of the city (another report say Tymchuk spread rumors of tank attack imminent from that area, using social networks). However pro-Kiev forces made preparations (such as turned off water) and left 1/2 hour before the area was hit by shells. A caller to Lifenews correspondent is telling this story. --Resup (talk) 15:42, 24 January 2015 (UTC)

Rusvesna: "DPR Army is on the outskirts of Mariupol". --Resup (talk) 14:40, 24 January 2015 (UTC)

Actual positions of opolchenie appear uncertain/disputed, and some reports could be inaccurately given at a time of battles on several directions. There was less activity in Mariupol direction than reported at the time. War correspondents Stepashin and Kots have visited the area, and report that Ukrainian positions are at Hnutove and Shyrokine map, opolchenie is further east. --Resup (talk) 02:33, 29 January 2015 (UTC)

Mariupol Encircled?
From a pro-DNR video mapping rockets from the north, what he thinks is the situation map at the time of the January 24 attacks. I don't know. But it's interesting in the context below of east, south, and probably north-origin rocket fire all being involved. By this, that corresponds with each and every direction Opolchenie reportedly have the place surrounded. The one direction that can cleanly blame Kiev - West - has been alleged but seems elusive.

So ... this will make a three fronts attack by Donetsk forces seem obvious to some. But of course, in each direction, there is probably enough mixed-presence to implicate either side, depending. And there's the issue of motives and the psychology of such an attack. Two major points to consider:

1) The SBU's alleged spotter cites firing by rebels from the south, suggesting Kiev thinks they're there. He suggests the killing of civilians was accidental, meaning to hit a checkpoint. Did the units coordinating in this, firing separately from the east and north make the same mistakes, or did they hit checkpoints? I bet they did, and all three directions targeted innocents and show a clear terrorist intent to the whole thing: destroying infrastructure, disrupting life, killing innocents, sowing panic, etc.

2) If Mariupol is surrounded, it might be ripe to fall to Donetsk forces, and be lost to Kiev's, who stands to benefit from terrorism like that? Do the locals hate DNR and fear occupation by them as Kiev claims? If so, maybe the people need to be chased off first. Did Kiev's forces have to massacre their way in against the DNR-embracing will of the locals? Yes, as I recall it seeming. Those about to claim a prize, vs. those faced with losing it, who only achieved it by force to begin with. The latter might try to prevent the fall of Mariupol by mobilizing the people behind claims that their would-be liberators are total terrorists (a claim they apparently didn't believe before). --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:56, 28 January 2015 (UTC)

As noted, most pro-Kiev sources have the rebel front lines at about Shirokyne (BBC report with map)Here's a similar take, more explicit, from the International Platform for Human Rights, I think getting their info from the Azov battalion. PDF link By this, all towns circled in yellow were specified government-held, and blue were specifically in rebel hands on Jan. 24. By this, which I don't quite buy, there's room even for firing from "the Vinogradne direction." I didn't label all the towns here, yet, but they're named in the report, on Wikimapia, etc. There are two Prymorskes, with ? here wondering if they mean one, the other, or both. Because the south one is the one on line with Vinogradne. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:53, 19 February 2015 (UTC)

On these alleged rebel areas: I suspect these are places firing might finally be shown to come from, so Azov battalion (I'm guessing, IPHR's main info source) decided to clarify who controlled those places. Next, there's allegation rebels have been sheeling one of these places. The closest blue circle here just to the east is Lebedynske. onflict reporter tweets "Ukrainian-held Lebedyns'ke East of #Mariupol. Also here,the #Russian aggression is visible everywhere." A picture shows a damaged building, hit from further east. I'm not so sure and said so: "lot of debris blown out, as if fired from the west, hitting the top." The cited article (Ukrainian) adds little credible detail, but it seems the government is in control, just like they are in Vostichny, where their own shells came down anyway, so case not closed. And did any of the firing of Jan 24 come from here? --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:19, 8 March 2015 (UTC)

Provocation?
Military intelligence of DPR reports: "According to the latest data, in Mariupol a second for the day provocation of  Ukrainian security forces is planned in micro-district Vostochnyi ( Восточный, =East) and other possible areas of our strike: at the moment the opponent starts to pull to the area of the checkpoint infantry detachments; from their bases at  ТЦ "Метро" (= tele (?) center  Metro ) enemy continues to  load into buses fully armed and equipped personnel  in the form of the armed forces of Novorossia with chevrons of DPR . The objective  of those dressed up punishers includes  destruction of the civilian population, infrastructure and communications. This task is given to  the 9 territorial battalion Vinnytsia and SBU. Please residents do not to your homes and remain calm. In the morning the Ukrainian side has already delivered an artillery strike using MLRS (=Grads) from Old Crimea. At 19:45, near the checkpoint "Vostochnyi"  fire was opened with small arms, civilians must immediately go into the building. " Cassad at 20-15--Resup (talk) 18:02, 24 January 2015 (UTC)

SBU claimed radio intercept of opolchenie discussing shelling checkpoint, knowing that there are nine- story buildings of flats not too far (1.5 km away). Recording sounds fake, studio quality, calm voices seem acted, very few details actually given (like what was actually going on, who are they, and how they learned that something went wrong). One caller has callname "Terrorist",-- very conveniently. --Resup (talk) 19:06, 24 January 2015 (UTC)

Zakahrchenko says they do not intend to storm Mariupol, as they "are not animals, as those in Kiev". But "after Kiev tried to blame opolchenie for their own Grad hit made in error" (from Berdianskoe  Бердянское), he   ordered  to suppress Ukrainian artillery positions to the East from Mariupol.
 * So, disagreement on where this was coming from, Berdianskoe will be to the West, Novoazovsk East, from the market square hit on the Eastern outskirt of the city map. Collateral damage happen even with precision weapons, this is not impossible--yet Porosheko again screams a lot about terrorism. Seem to notice civilian deaths only when its convenient to his cause.  --Resup (talk) 20:17, 24 January 2015 (UTC)

OSCE says those are Grads and Uragans from NE and  East, from opolchenie-controlled area. They say there visited the location. They note that Ukrainian checkpoint number 14 is just several hundred meters away--Resup (talk) 21:07, 24 January 2015 (UTC)

Itar-Tass, Jan, 26 "The Ukrainian military’s shelling of the southeastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol is a provocation aimed at changing the format of talks on resolving the Donbass conflict, the chief negotiator of the self-proclaimed Donetsk people’s republic at the Minsk talks, Denis Pushilin said on Sunday." He calls the attack "another attempt to accuse militias and cast them in a negative light," which it did, and notes "today they call for turning the Minsk talks to a Geneva format and involve the United States there." The solution" “suppress the artillery positions of the enemy ... they understand only this language.” --Caustic Logic (talk) 02:31, 26 January 2015 (UTC)

What Zakharchenko Said
This deserves a section worth linking to. To hear the Western news reports, the DNR leader openly admitted his guys opened a military bombardment offensive that day, and it was exactly the market shelling, and he was (blindly?) celebrating what (he thought was) some clean opening act, to (idiot, out-of-the-loop) cheering crowds. Doesn't sound right to me. In fact, he explicitly denied being behind that attack, although his easy replacement theory fails, IMO, and I wonder where he got that from, and talk of being able to suppress stuff to the east, where the firing did come from ... There are issues both ways worth considering. I'm not up to speed enough to start assembling now, but I made the spot. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:31, 18 February 2015 (UTC)
 * Zakharchenko on the previous day, 23 January repeated long-held position that DPR would like to be in the borders of all Donetsk administrative region : "We will advance to the borders of Donetsk region; but if I will see a threat from elsewhere, we will work to eliminate such threat". Reports on (market) shelling, start of offensive, smoke seen over Mariupol were coming from Ukrainian side and blogs/social media. (Pro-opolchenie blogs reported that a checkpoint at Vinogradnoe was shelled; that was unidentified opolchenie member; so unclear whether accurate, and in any case this is one of suspected origins of market attack, not the residential area).   DPR rejected that they were behind and called it a provocation early on: "This is blatant disinformation and lie. Opolchenie did not open fire in Mariupol  direction, and especially not on residential areas"    (Quoting DPR MOD) . I do not recall any other sort of official comment from DPR. I note that official DPR site dnr.today was hijacked by Ukraine (do not remember exact day, it was at about the same time; the site does not show up now; I think it was showing anti-Novorossia crap at some point with Ukraine bragging about this). So than official stuff may be on russvesna; do not remember seeing it--they quoted Ukrainian media on the day. Will double-check later. --Resup (talk) 15:55, 18 February 2015 (UTC)
 * Reported on 23 January, including BBC: "We did not attack Mariupol, because before taking Maiupol, we need to take Slaviansk. The reason is water. In Mariupol, water is delivered by Ukraine through our territories, and gets to us as well, while 90% of water in Donetsk region is not suitable for drinking" -Zakarchenko. --Resup (talk) 16:25, 18 February 2015 (UTC)
 * Good review to start. The comments of the 23rd are new to me. I'm going to get more detailed below. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:59, 19 February 2015 (UTC)

Times: until I'm sure what the current deal is, I'm giving two Ukraine times: one using standard time, one in the permanent summer time that was made law in 2010. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:59, 19 February 2015 (UTC)

They had a war at the time, and opolchenie forces were in numerical disadvantage. So they are not expected to be too explicit in advance what exactly they are up to. they would want to create an impression of a broader offence than the actual plan is, to held up opponent forces. Pretending to attack Mariupol while in fact cooking the cauldron in Debaltsevo would be plausible tactics. Terrorizing civilians won't be, they do not operate like this and there is no conceivable benefit for their cause. --Resup (talk) 14:13, 19 February 2015 (UTC)

Jan. 23 Statements
Lenta.ru 12:19, 23 января 2015 (whose time? Site current shows mine...) Speaking to a gathering of students in Donetsk "We will advance to the borders of Donetsk region; but if I will see a threat from elsewhere, we will work to eliminate such threat" General talk of offensives, no mention of Mariupol or any attack on it. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:59, 19 February 2015 (UTC)

BBC Russian, Jan. 23, time not given "Kiev does not understand that we are in a position to attack in three directions simultaneously," Zakharchenko said. However, he denied reports in the Ukrainian media about [the attack] (broken down, [the occurrence of] [separatists] on the in [on] Mariupol, [in] Donetsk region." [that is, there's no missing word as it seemed. He denied reports of a separatist occurrence, or attack, on Mariupol) "We did not attack Mariupol, because before taking Maiupol, we need to take Slaviansk. The reason is water. In Mariupol, water is delivered by Ukraine through our territories, and gets to us as well, while 90% of water in Donetsk region is not suitable for drinking" BBC reports on this speech, posted on Twitter, mentioning Mariupol or not:earliest, no mention of Mariupol was at 3:14 AM my time, Jan. 23 = 13:14/14:14 in Ukraine, 18-19 hours before the attack we're studying. the one above with Mariupol denial was being tweeted by 4:28 AM = 14:28/15:28 Ukraine. Even if it's a later quote tacked on, it's not late enough to be an early denial of the Jan. 24 attack. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:59, 19 February 2015 (UTC)

The day before someone attacks Mariupol, and he claims to have done so, (?) he was saying they were not going to. What some will see is denial of a plan, an effort to make it a surprise. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:59, 19 February 2015 (UTC)

I'd presume he means "we haven't attacked it yet because..." and the same preconditions still applied, so he's saying they won't be soon. But the report specifies there were Ukrainian claims that Opolchenie had attacked Mariupol somehow, about one day before the one in question. Two attacks just north and south, Sartana and Vinogradne, were reported in conjunction, but all on the 24th, so what's this about? --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:59, 19 February 2015 (UTC)

"Offensive was Launched"

 * RIA ...
 * Reuters Jan 24, 10:21am EST = 17:21/18:21 Ukraine "...Zakharchenko, was quoted by Russia's RIA news agency as saying ... "Today an offensive was launched on Mariupol. This will be the best possible monument to all our dead," he was quoted as saying at a memorial ceremony in the rebel-held city of Donetsk. At least 20 people were killed" in what reads as some sinister cousin of irony. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:59, 19 February 2015 (UTC)

Open questions: is this really a quote from that day, in response to any part of the day's attack(s)? What else did he say before and after, for context? Did he mean a military offensive? Did that actually happen, at the same time some non-surprised false-flaggers launched the synchronous demonization barrages? Or was that boast-worthy rebel opening salvo the whole deal, as alleged? --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:59, 19 February 2015 (UTC)

Not sure Zakharchenko said it, direct report needed. Coverage on the day was quoting social media or Ukrainian sources.

Liberation of Mariupol has started! Ukrainian army retreats!--this is what said.... Rustam Temirgaliev, ex vice president of the Crimea Republic, on his facebook page rusvesna 24.01.2015 - 12:52. This is also confirmed by Yurii Bereza, commander of Dnepr 1 battalion based in Mariupol. Photo of smoke raising over city shown.

Rusvesna 24.01.2015 - 12:30 According to Mariupol residents, there is a fight at a checkpoint near Mariupol. Ukry from fired Grads from the Old Crimea trying to hit opolchenie, but missed and hit civilian houses. It is said that 3 civilians were killed. --Resup (talk) 13:54, 20 February 2015 (UTC)

17:39 24.01.2015 "Today, advance on Mariupol has begaun. This will be the best monument to all our perished"-said Zakharchenko during the laying of wreaths at the place of fire stop in Donetsk, where eight people were killed and 17 were wounded. Well, yes, they did attack the checkpoint; but not residential area of Mariupol, and consistently blamed Ukraine for that shelling. That was time of warfare and Zakharchenko had no reason to give timely information on direction and timing of their main effort (most likely Debaltsevo). It is unclear what was exact intention at Mariupol; but in any case whatever it was, it stopped after the incident. Something like that would not stop Western offensive, they will be more robust in dealing with media while continuing the plan. Here, either it is different more reserved warfare, or no real intention to take Mariupol back than. --Resup (talk) 14:16, 20 February 2015 (UTC)
 * I'm going with no immediate intention (although probably imminent and, as you note, put on hold because of this... complicating event that doesn't seem like any part of the plan they had, as far as we can tell what that was - see next part) --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:53, 24 February 2015 (UTC)

Let's consider it like this: there are four main possibilities for what he meant by offensive: 1) the terrorist shelling attack 2) some other military strike in Mariupol area (Vinogradne, Sartana) 3) the broad project with pre-requisites he explained the day before - "before taking Maiupol, we need to take Slaviansk." Maybe he's saying they had started on the pre-requisites in that campaign. 4) Other (some kind of symbolic start to the campaign, for example)

Fort Russ has the full transcript, translated. from Segodnya.ru, Translated by Kristina Rus. Context snippets: "when our comrades, loved ones and neighbors are dying - a part of us is dying." Not the best prelude to killing more of your own in the city you hope to liberate. But of course opinions differ on who loves Mariupol residents vs. hates them. Speaks of why they're killed (they're different, braver than most) and then:
 * I want to say the following: Today began an offensive on Mariupol [the crowd cheers], God willing in a couple of days Debaltsevo cauldron will be closed. And it will be the best answer to honor the memory of the dead. Because we will pay back everyone, we will pay those who pulled the trigger or pushed the button which launched the missiles that killed our countrymen here. Those who shot people in Gorlovka, Makeevka, Yenakievo, Shakhtersk, Zhdanovka, Kirovka. Will pay back for each of our murdered child, and each old man innocently killed here.
 * Glory to Donbass! Glory! (The crowd cheers) (moment of silence, closing remarks)
 * Looks like it was on 24 of January, that is after the shelling segodnia.ru FB January 24 at 1:09pm (PT)=11.09 PM Donetsk. Language and occasion, ongoing war, and lack of detail-except Debaltsevo Cauldron- suggests imprecise, symbolic meaning. I understand they did attack some checkpoint near Mariupol,--not in residential area- so "offensive began" would not be inaccurate, but there is no time frame or detail given here.--Resup (talk) 16:29, 24 February 2015 (UTC)

The reported added that "Zakharcheno's words that the militia, defenders of Donbass, launched an offensive on Mariupol, which is occupied by the Kiev junta, caused an ovation from the crowd." Translation might matter, but "offensive on" as both say does sound like a direct attack on that place. But he only gives one possible specific as to type of action; moves were underway to close the Debaltseve "cauldron" on the trapped soldiers and claim that hub, as they soon did. A ways north is Slaviansk, half-cut-off now, which must be re-taken first. If that was their real thinking, the port city is their main goal, they're on-track now, and we should expect no invasion in the coming days, or probably even weeks. Any rocket attacks they did launch that day could have no direct connection to invasion plans so distant, no help in the current phase, and not worth including in the offensive he mentioned. I still mean to check the timeline on this. The video I saw somewhere was dark, night-time - same night? Or the previous? Seems as soon as there was news of civilians dead in Mariupol, by 9AM, he should have been more careful with specifics, maybe clarified then and not later that DNR had nothing to do with that horrific shelling, maybe start tossing out un-tested theories then instead of later... Maybe somehow the news hadn't congealed yet, but at least he should have heard there was mass shelling that his commanders hopefully weren't claiming credit for. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:53, 24 February 2015 (UTC)


 * And I noticed a Segdonya reporter/analysts talking after, giving context. If this is all evening (not pre-dawn) Jan. 24, one of them should be putting 'Mariupol' in the right context. I would guess it's the same as we have translated above, where he says Zakharchenko just announced a direct rebel attack on Mariupol ... I think this is earlier, like this lady apparently presumed without proof - maybe pre-dawn on the same day - Geo-located in central Donetsk, which way the sun is glowing most would set that. But even then, might be previous evening, would look the same. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:41, 5 March 2015 (UTC)


 * Alternate take: I looked at the video and I'm not sure we're seeing it right. Maybe ... this is post-attack, the reporter is just on drugs or whatever, and the president means the offensive in question, where more of their people were killed - as part of the section on that. He seems extra quiet as he says an offensive was launched, not by whom, and maybe sad - was maybe about to put it in context but was misunderstood first and massively cheered - so he just changes gears around that awkwardness and talks about the part after, their answer to the deaths in Donetsk, and Mariupol, and elsewhere - where they were supposed to cheer, getting to Debaltseve. I don't suppose this is it, but it seemed possible. Until whenever, I don't know. Cryptic people. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:41, 5 March 2015 (UTC)
 * May be no way to know for sure what exactly he meant. But important point is that some rebels out there do use attacks on civilians as part of their tactics, and cheer up when this succeeds. But the Novorossian " rebels" do not do it, and that is totally off. The only way they can hit civilians would be accidental. If civilians are killed, they would not get happy about this at all. They do consider residents of Mariupol their own people, and would not want to attack them. If civilians are pro-Ukrainian, they would not want to target them either. (Even with Ukrainian soldiers fighting them, they from time to time allow food to get through to them, and let them out of  cauldrons without heavy weapons, which illustrate overall attitudes). --Resup (talk) 14:19, 5 March 2015 (UTC)


 * "Their people" - agreed, after some study and consideration. Thanks for the Korotkov angle I made central in this distillation. And indeed, we'll never know, probably, what he meant. But one more possibility hit me: he simply misspoke, meaning to say "today an offensive was launched on Debaltseve." But thinking either of the end goal or the recent tragedy, slipped and said Mariupol. And the crowd slipped and cheered what he meant to say, or whatever. All readings are odd, and that annoys me. But such is life in these crazy days. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:35, 8 March 2015 (UTC)

Later Comments
...

As Spun
At the end, there will be a review to check accuracy. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:59, 19 February 2015 (UTC)

Order of claims:
 * Digital Journal: "Separatist leader Alexander Zakharchenko initially claimed Saturday to have launched the offensive to seize Mariupol, but as the extent of the bloodshed became apparent he denied ordering an assault..."
 * Russia Behind the Headlines: "Before the incident, Alexander Zakharchenko, head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, announced that his pro-autonomy militia forces were beginning an assault on Mariupol. He later backtracked, denying that the militias intended to storm the city and describing their operation as a response to “acts of provocation” from the Ukrainian military and security forces intended to “suppress the positions of Ukrainian troops.”"


 * Channel 4: "The leader of pro-Russian separatists in east Ukraine, Alexander Zakharchenko, was quoted as saying that his rebel fighters had launched the attack on Mariupol. ... Rebels had previously denied responsibility for the attacks on the Kiev-controlled city..."

Several directions?
East seems to be the main firing origin, from credible sources and some verified by us. But at least three need discussed. South seems to be the most interesting/controversial, so we cover it first, in detail. Below that, east, northeast, and west (reported, not verified). --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:35, 17 February 2015 (UTC)

South
Two dashboard videos emerged. --Resup (talk) 21:21, 24 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Dashboard video geolocated . Direction of blasts, those with direction of plume seen well, appears to be towards the single building, going left to right, and coming from behind on dashboard video. I presume for now that video is from the opposite side of 9 of May street;  or parking lot further West along the road works even better.  If it is somehow in a backyard on the same side. would be different, but I don't think we will get such a view from there as on the video. Viewpoint is shown on yandex map--so that would be fired from the  West or NW.   That is  based on video and geolocation (supplied by commenter). I wonder why OSCE says East--Should have supplied photos.    --Resup (talk) 22:04, 24 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Second video is now gone (copyright, so named holder should have it) But from the top one, I agree the fireballs show a left-to-right momentum, and maybe a bit away from the camera, so from like an 8:00 position, relative to the blasts, maybe about 9:00 or hard left from the camera. Trying to make that a direction, I got confused. Not sure that location is right, or just not seeing it yet. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:15, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * I don't think that location/direction is right. The vacant tower is seen from a different side (if it's even that one) Might be filmed from here - with that same white van - looking west. Building on the right, awning and other details, match, and it would explain general building lineup better. But that means the hits seem to come from the ... south? (and maybe slightly east) Empty fields for about 2-3 km south of there, FWIW. But can this be right? The sunlight (diffuse but there) doesn't seem right for morning facing west. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:26, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * 3 or 4 masts seem to be there, buildings plausible, big parking lot may be hidden by the car in front. Not sure about the sun; we are not sure about time of this attack, and light may be tricky for a webcam inside a car and all behind a tall building --Resup (talk) 17:02, 27 January 2015 (UTC)

Holy crap, this is interesting. I looked a little closer at that view and decided it probably is the correct one. The camera faces west. If it's really momentum and not a ridiculous wind causing that roll, these shots were fired either from the fields just south, the little populated strip south of that, or the sea. Before we get too excited about that, someone should check into the wind. A strong one might come off the sea, which will be left-to-right in this view (smoke clouds seem to testify against this, however...).

Because, either way, we're facing west, as the pictures below show. First, the view; The face seen of the empty tower matches, as well as the low building to the left, and the angles of the big apartment block that's hit, and all foreground clues. Beyond the empty tower, on its left, will be the market area.

I count at least nine impacts, Most seem to be in the unclear distance, probably around the market. These are numbered in the pic below that - only #3 is an "impact here" label, the rest crowded at the edge, unknown locale, but along about that line of sight from the camera. #8 and 9 come almost instantaneous, with #9 seeming to hit much nearer than most, with flying, glowing fragments making it onto this street or further. That's a clue: an impact from the east is not likely to send this much backwards against its momentum, (unless maybe the momentum is very minimal, meaning it came almost straight down). Actually several instances of debris getting close to the camera. We also never see the near sides of buildings hit, tending be on or behind, silhouetting the buildings - unlikely to be so common if these rockets were flying west along anything like the camera's line of sight. The opposite - a west origin - seems more likely, but mainly I think it's from the right left/south, and maybe a bit east, depending how much of that is the wind. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:20, 28 January 2015 (UTC)

Wind: world weather online says all day Jan. 24, winds 21-25 mph from the east. In the video, little movement left or right is noticeable - the plumes will be drifting away from the camera, by this. Any wind effect on the fireball will be in the "away from the camera" part, not from the left. Therefore: --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:05, 28 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Later note: plumes also drift a bit right-to-left, so wind would was E-NE, roughly, and would not help but slightly hinder the fireball's l-r aspect. Excellent. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:27, 21 February 2015 (UTC)
 * The red dot at right is impact 3 as labeled, the apartment building. I missed a few impacts, including one behind (east of) the camera, and one before #1 as labeled.--Caustic Logic (talk) 13:02, 28 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Some heavy and fast moving debris can be seen from another explosion on the ground, all moving in the same direction; that will not be much affected by wind --Resup (talk) 16:30, 28 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Interesting impact, that. As I note below, 0:28, it almost seems to be coming from W-SW.' --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:27, 21 February 2015 (UTC)

All hits, 10-12 total, depending if one is a secondary blast, if another is one hit or two. And noting wind is from the east by records, from the E-NE by smoke drift on this video. (This and all timed * entries below --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:40, 20 February 2015 (UTC) and revised Caustic Logic (talk) 12:42, 21 February 2015 (UTC))
 * 0:08 behind tower, in front of 66 and 68 Kyivska, likely north - faint
 * 0:09 Roof of Kievska 62, apparently, hit with l-r roll (from south) and a split of the fireball
 * 0:13 between left buildings, line to market south lot, smoke to north, then flash to the south (2 hits?)
 * 0:11 same as at 0:08 but brighter reflection on Kyivska buildings
 * 0:14 left-side building roof impact, either 19a or 17 on May 9 road - roll from l-r = south
 * 0:16 Clear flash and impact fireball right on same line as in 0:13 - two (or 3?) impacts on a line to be at or near the spot everyone else investigated or listed, the single impact listed in the main market area.
 * 0:19 same as at 0:13, but less direction signs (probably east), also splits
 * 0:27 off-frame to the left, nearest impact, it jolts the camera, reflects on the car's rear window molding, and even the building wall to the left. It was near, no debris crosses frame, but a puff of smoke at ground level visible in front of the broken van's wheels, moving left-to-right and away from the camera, so from southeast, if that's trajectory
 * 0:28 roof of 66 Kyiska, I thought, more perhaps 68, further back. Direction unclear, likely east, or a tiny bit northeast.
 * 0:28 synchronous with last, a split-second after, furthest hit east we see, through car windows, unclear foreground. At 0:30-32 glowing shrapnel fragments, at least 2-3, fly towards the camera and a bit left-to-right. If trajectory, this came from the west-southwest. Otherwise, clearly not east, and maybe it's a coincidence we only see these few bits suggesting force from the west.
 * 0:36 smoke blows onscreen from behind and to the right (wind trend was apparently E-northeast at this time) so that's another hit off frame, behind camera and to the right.
 * And as I map out what everyone else has mapped out (may not finish it totally, becoming a headache...) I note everyone keeps not looking at these easternmost impacts. Is it 17 or 19a that's hit? Opinions differ, but HRW's 35-ish spots, IPHR's almost 100 spots, all videos I've seen, none include either building, close-up, as an impact spot. Nor any hits seen/implied in the dashcam video, except the south end market one(s) and maybe a coupled distance ones, where I'm not sure, and probably the one at 0:19. But from the market east, it's like an info quarantine. We see south hits here. Graphic coming. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:40, 20 February 2015 (UTC)

This graphic maps out most of that, hopefully understandable. It also shows which sites in this and a neighboring area were identified/mapped/investigated by others. The whole scene includes yellow dots for "tape news" spots, but none in this area. Anyway, note how very few of these hits were so investigated. IPHR and HRW (pink and red) are based on field inspection, at least partly. But all these interesting impacts, no pink or red dots. Ukraine@War has too many in one spot and none in a couple of others (to say "unsure"?). That's just video-based, like we're doing. I suppose the one hit on the line including a pink dot (angled oval on the left) means that's the impact, and one that was looked at. On the other roof, no inspection. All dots there are impacts at ground level in the street. As for the north oval here with two ?? - this shows two different fireballs that reflect most on the right-hand building, which faces NE, and I didn't even notice was part of the view ... so likely the inspected impacts up in that open area, upper left corner, and not where I put the oval. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:12, 21 February 2015 (UTC)

Small but important update: looking at the map, and hearing talk of the 9-story apartment block that was hit ... I think it wasn't, and deciding so is a visual illusion. Consider the view above. It seems to be the building 19A that's hit, 9 stories. But behind it on the same line is the taller building, 17. Seems to match the vacant tower we see, so 12 stories? Is it vacant too? Anyway, the fact that it's all-but invisible proves that its roofline might be a factor. And I think that little roof sub-structure the blast is behind is that building's roof, and it's the one hit. Still, from the south. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:57, 8 February 2015 (UTC)
 * Note: it was the "terrorists" on SBU audio not worried about a 9-story building. Not clearly connected, any mix-up has no relevance then (that I know of). But I notice IPHR report and HRW fail to indicate either place as an impact spot. But we can see on video one was, or some huge blast on a very tall building further away ... so, it's being ignored? Sounds interesting. --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:42, 17 February 2015 (UTC)
 * Note: lots of 9-story blocks were hit, of course. That's the main thing here. And none hit is very close to the checkpoint, so any worry about the ones near the checkpoint were unfounded. Only the distant ones were hit by the (idiots? terrorists? And just so I don't forget, this scene along May 9 Road (Vultysia). Do we know if that was always called that? It's on or around the date of the bad day with gunning down of civilians in Mariupol last year. Sort of inauspicious, maybe irrelevant. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:33, 23 February 2015 (UTC)

Vinogradne (south)

 * (ref: south firing graphic above) Wasn't Vinogradne supposed to mean east? This is south, as the picture shows. All the eastern firing must be from somewhere else, northeast of there. What below belongs under this section? --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:08, 28 January 2015 (UTC)

Sharii figured out how to fix sound on the video. So, the sound came, telling us it was definitely Ukrainian side shelling, and that they now fire from the direction of Vinogradnaya. Puzzling. I remember reports somewhere saying that RS placed Grads at the plant and port side; that may be it. --Resup (talk) 23:40, 24 January 2015 (UTC)
 * This I didn't get at all. He boosted sound, someone's talking, we see no impacts, this means what? (sorry?) --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:15, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * I do not know how come this sound came back again, or what to make of this, but the man talking on the audio is telling us that fire came from Vinogradnoe --Resup (talk) 14:25, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Okay, so it was a verbal cue, once spoken, squelched to near-zero volume in attempted cover-up, and then retrieved? This can be done, and also I think avoided, depending. If so, the unknowns are: if it was true, if it was meant to be retrieved, etc. Could be a false lead, or a real one. He couldn't probably say just where the fire came from, but might have heard the stories of Grads based at Vinogradnoe and deduced it. For example. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:58, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * SBU witness (on SBU video of his testimony), on his 'Novorossian  boss' question how the 8 am attack aftermath looks like, said that it looked like coming from Vinogradnoe. Not a reliable witness, but what he says, if accurate, would imply Ukraine. Somebody said there were 3 attacks at 3 different times
 * So indeed. For the record Interpreter Mag has a translation up that has him saying "I came to see what had happened there and I called Pepel and said he had missed by one kilometer. He asked, "From where is the shooting visible?" And I said, "From the direction of Vinogradsky." This might mean Kiev wants us to think that. It doesn't seem to make sense as an actual conversation; the shooting coordinator asks there on-the-scene guy where the shooting is visible, and the answer is where the shooting came from and he says "Well, alright," and hangs up when he hears people were killed? I'm guessing lines will point there (two trajectories point about that way, and I'm likely wrong about south). But just where on the line remains open, and the efforts to point at Vinogradsky suggest it was somewhere else on the line. --Caustic Logic (talk) 16:09, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Hard to be sure as it's unreliable to begin with, but he maybe somebody they booked for some offence, talking to separatists say, and as a life-saver gave him an option of doing the video. Than there would be bits which are false, and some they did not figure out still may be true. For conversation to make sense, maybe opolchenie attack planned for the night in fact never came about, while the other side (or somebody anyway) hit the area in error. He than thought it is opolchenie and "calls back" to say "what happened" (or they knew there was fire from there; or they were countering leaked audio pointing there) --Resup (talk) 17:02, 27 January 2015 (UTC)

Human Rights Watch Excludes South
This sounded interesting, then not so much, then maybe, now definitely. Human Rights Watch did a visit investigation, covered in a report, Feb. 3 Ukraine: Rising Civilian Death Toll - Unlawful Unguided Rocket Attacks on Populated Areas (I suggest, since we're halfway there, that we have a page and talk page for each of the 4 incidents they cover here - the more obvious ones are missing, I think for that reason, and I agree obviousness merits less scrutiny) Anyway,:''On January 24, unguided rockets, probably launched from rebel-controlled territory, killed 30 civilians and 1 solider in Mariupol and wounded more than 90 civilians. One rocket struck the courtyard of a school.'' They got there "about six hours after the attack" and examined a 1.2 kilometer stretch of Kyivska Street, with "31 rocket impacts on the ground and on buildings."

They include [http://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/media/images/photographs/ukraine0215_presser_map-01_0.jpg this detailed graphic, with lots of arrows pointing west, underlining their general reading that " the rockets were fired from separatist-controlled territory to the east."
 * The impacted buildings had all been hit on the exterior wall facing due east, or in the case of one building, on the wall facing northeast. All the craters in the ground Human Rights Watch examined indicated that the rockets had come from the east, and in three cases the tail of rocket remnants stuck in the ground pointed east.

''The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) reported that some rockets also struck from the northeast. Some impacts on buildings examined by Human Rights Watch could have come from either the east or northeast. '' Now, I'll suppose the bulk of firing was from the east, and the other directions are interesting outliers. There's one downplayed mention of a northeast impact. They didn't look at the courtyard impact pointing northeast. Three dots on the upper left suggest they were just outside that area.

And they don't mention the south direction at all. Their graphic shows none of the foreground hits in the video above, including the 9-story apartment building hit on its top. These hits appear southerly, but didn't get looked at. Why? Is south embarrassing after all? The SBU and their pressed witness claim rebels who were already there did the worst of the firing from there. But both sides think/thought Vinogradne implicates the other. But they don't make sure now that HRW documented that. Why?
 * Human Rights Watch did not examine reported impacts along Olimpiiska, a parallel street, due to the risk of renewed shelling.

That's the north-south avenue along the left edge, not the angled May 9 ave. to the NE. But maybe this too was too dangerous ... a decision of their own, or of the people helping them get around? Took nine days before the Volnovakha site was safe enough to examine, someone decided. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:12, 4 February 2015 (UTC)


 * Here's how quick I am even this late: multiple directions - even 2, let alone 3 - is problematic for the case HRW makes. They point out a checkpoint to the north is nearest of all to the later PM attacks, suggesting the aim got better and that was always the target. This suggests a single group, to the east (when Grads are more accurate in direction than range, I hear) pounding targets well south ... on accident. And as we've discussed here, it's not very plausible that people shooting from 2 or even 3 different places would all make the same mistakes. It clarifies that whoever did it wanted people to know they, or whoever's getting blamed, are terrorists, who are very bad and shouldn't be allowed to capture Mariupol. So ... HRW decides there was firing from only about 1.25 directions. Problem solved-ish! Or is that a coincidence? --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:21, 4 February 2015 (UTC)

IPHR and Southeast
Report of International Partnership for Human Rights investigation, PDF, February 2015 Finds it most likely a deliberate targeting of civilians, by DPR militants, who broke specified laws even if it was accidental. And gives specifics on direction, and a Yandex map of most impacts. This decides the attack was launched from several Grad launchers (no other rockets used, they say), based in one area to the E-NE, compass heading 65 to 80 degrees, or area of Dzherzhynske–Kachkarske-Rosy Luxemburg villages. Sounds to me like two or more distinct non-south directions we've been seeing, melted into one. They say all impacts but two came from this direction, even site 41, which seems to point more like 45 degrees NE. They don't seem to think our foreground fireball hit happened, or not at either of the two near buildings I've thought it was at. But the exceptions they do map are interesting: Site 87 being at the south edge of things, if they're right on this, both angles seem to converge about 3km out, on about this spot on Wikimapia - translated "Current. Tractor brigade." Whose? Why point there? Our other south direction seemed due south, but maybe those too were hits from the tractor brigade area, with the breeze playing less of a role than I thought? Or is this four distinct directions now? Hm... --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:08, 16 February 2015 (UTC) and Caustic Logic (talk) 04:58, 17 February 2015 (UTC)
 * site 24, hit from SE azimuth 100-120
 * site 87, from E az 95-100.
 * Here Ток (russ, -agricultural meaning) = area with machines and equipment for threshing grain; Тракторная-бригада =Tractor Brigade --Resup (talk) 13:46, 16 February 2015 (UTC)
 * Just from the area I presumed it was a farm machinery complex. But brigade is in the name. Hm. --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:58, 17 February 2015 (UTC)


 * And I guess it's a bit much to say two lines converge there when one "line" is 20 degrees wide. But, they almost have to converge somewhere, either there, or fields 400 m west, or fields up to 2 km east, nearly to Lebedynske. Unless the lines don't comverge and there are two firing positions that way. Or unless these are inaccurate readings. Could be. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:38, 17 February 2015 (UTC)
 * Graphic added above right. The two implied ranges in red and green, areas they share boxed in blue. At one end, they converge on the tractor brigade place and surrounding fields. On the other end here, the top red line stops being included, and the bounds follow the green line. 100 degrees being equal to 100, the lines then fail to converge, so it becomes a wide band running out to Grad range, 15 km or so. --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:58, 17 February 2015 (UTC)

Interesting, a third place hit from such an angle that they didn't notice, and it's one of the most famous impacts. Stop Fake takes on the west firing claims, deciding on two real directions, east and northeast. A local blogger focused on the school 72, where the courtyard was hit from east, not west. Plenty of high-quality photos of the crater and area. And he holds a pocket phone compass over it, pointing about the right way, looks to me, and gets a reading of 101 degrees.

This building is across Kievskaya street from one of the two impacts IPHR did list hit from 100-120 degrees. So in the graphic, its line is about the same as the top green one. If all three converge, it's not likely to be at the tractor brigade, but maybe just east of it, or just south of Lebedynske, which IPHR says was under rebel control at the time. I kind of doubt that, however. Or, if further out, this band points to Shyrokyne, 8km or so, which everyone agrees was in rebel hands. Cool thing about the school is, if we have the building height and formula to turn minimum impact angle, we could say how far out better than usual. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:01, 19 February 2015 (UTC)

Whatever to make of their findings, these guys, someone, went there and collected some info, and collated a lot, and made that useful Yandex map with 91 impacts, listed on the side, info attached in Russian. Some of these give info suggesting their two southeast outliers mentioned in the report (#24 #87) are not the only ones. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:21, 20 February 2015 (UTC) and Caustic Logic (talk) 14:39, 21 February 2015 (UTC)

Directions: с = север = north В = Восток = east З = Запад = west Ю = Южная = south

Notes, Yandex auto-translated:
 * #24 - northeast, yellow pin: 'getting into the house balconies in the middle part of the house. direction: юв = se (in the report: 100-120 degrees!)
 * #27 - market area, south lot: 'funnel a depth of approximately 70 cm, the direction of approach: CCCB. destroyed stalls.'
 * #29 - west of 27, yellow pin: 'depth: 40-50 cm, direction: юююв (SSSE?) the angle of entry - 60-65 deg. from the hopper, the extracted portion of the projectile.'
 * #48 angle 95 degrees
 * #87 blue pin, south: 'voronkovidnaya in the soil at 50 cm from the wall of the house. The accumulation of land on the walls. Shattered glass, shrapnel damage to the facade (photo,video documentation is missing)' Angle not mentioned, it's not yellow like some. Report gives angle 95-100 degrees.

So by the notes, no angle given, but it's to about the south face of a building. They're trying to say east, the report gives a starting angle as close as you can get - 95 degrees is parallel to the south wall. They note the video/photo evidence is missing (lacking, or vanished?) but Human Rights Watch happens to include a low-resolution view in their info-graphic. That's a pretty acute patch of damage suddenly breaking through the wall with a force going partly north. Rocket flight paths don't run parallel to walls and then suddenly fish-hook themselves to the right and plow through. Therefore 95 is out and around 98-100 is the minimum. That might be just it, or might be even further south, but our visual clues stop there. Maybe they were supposed to stop even earlier. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:39, 21 February 2015 (UTC)

Driving Dashcam Video


More hits from the southeast, and more hits no one documented! Unless I'm wrong... I finally tried to place the driving dashcam video, and I think I got it. version with slow - longer version with better quality (go to 2:35). I placed this from the shorter cut, but the long one just confirms it. Only one spot in the area has the arrangement of features marked here.

Map rotated - he's driving east, or E-SE. We see signs of 3 impacts here: first, the distant building on the right (red bar) is lit up from an impact that way. Then, just ahead and to the right. Then just ahead on the street. The second one puts off a line of white smoke across the street to the left, or north. The next more clearly comes from the southeast, with smoke and shrapnel moving towards the camera and slightly right-to-left. Angle then is broadly 100-120 degrees. IPHR may list one of these three hits: #1 on their list is house 237 here, through the roof, no direction given (if so, my circle is a bit off). Same list, hits #84, 85, and 86 are all in a good spot to explain the off-frame glow. But no hit in the road listed. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:14, 22 February 2015 (UTC)

Okay, in the above picture's discussion page, we established that the "Magneto" fitness club is the building marked with a blue bar. And maybe that's from the same impact we see on video, which seems to start on the right side of the road and spread way across to the north. But IPHR has the impact marking the club - their spot #1 in fact - all on the right side, right in front of the club. They give a direction: BBBC = 3x east and a bit north? Seems unlikely. The video shows no crater right at the club's parking lot, but that is some fierce shrapnel, so maybe. That means they missed the second fierce southeast impact seen on that video. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:12, 1 March 2015 (UTC)


 * The video with Partick Wells' Voice of America report shows the crater that best fits with this famous blast. Right across from the recessed bust stop, clear radial marks saying it was closer to right up the street than I thought. Still a bit south, on a street running 5 degrees south of east. So 98-105 is the best range as I measured it out. And it's still not on IPHR's map, closest to pin 2 but in the street instead of a house. Their #1, the Magneto fitness parking lot hit, might be separate impact then. And if the two came at once, that could explain the crazy cross-road blast action this thing alone doesn't explain. It seems to light up the fitness club's roof. Only between them I think did they lit up the whole place like that.--Caustic Logic (talk) 11:06, 9 March 2015 (UTC)

Yellow House
Another spot hit is behind the camera, unseen, and IPHR missed it. The Azov public TV video starts with an odd yellow house. There's a yellow house in the Yandex street view, and the longer version of this dashboard video. I didn't think it could be the same, but it is. Too many unique matching details to list. I'm working on a graphic go to get the best angle reading, since it's un-mapped so far. Basically, the rocket flew into that face of the house, which faces south. It seems to have a slight east angle as well, but not major. So maybe the same SE we're seeing in some hits here, maybe different. will see. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:12, 1 March 2015 (UTC)

This yellow house - Resup, you brought a video, I think, where the owner, a lean older guy, was saying the damage proves the rockets came from the east, from rebels, wasn't it? --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:12, 1 March 2015 (UTC)
 * Ah, right below under east. The video itself. Guy standing in front of damage caused by fire from the south, I think, and points east, expansively, a bit more to the northeast, where he hears rebels are based. Later points more the right way, and even due south at one point, talking the whole time. Mentions Novoazavsk (sp?), rebel city to the E-SE. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:26, 1 March 2015 (UTC)

APTV video still, radial blast lines (suggests relatively perpendicular impact) or possible ones marked in green. Center of impact in red: right on the corner of the little structure with a door, clearly a stairwell to below ground. Maybe a bit more on the east face of that, not quite 45 degrees. Satellite view with wall-window-structure roughly proportioned in, and damage intensity mapped (orange arc) I get the red line. It should maybe point a hair further east. So hit from southeast, slightly different from the picture, I'd say 120-150 deg is the broad range, best range 132-138. This a type of angle I haven't seen clearly anywhere yet. It's not Vynogradne south, but not that 100-110-maybe 120 position, not this far south. That would make 5-6 apparent positions more like 6-7. But maybe I'm just off somehow, despite this careful setup. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:55, 8 March 2015 (UTC)

East
According to yurasumy, Azov Battalion controls Sopino, which is next to Vinogradnoe.
 * (Control of Sopino seems to be disputed (Cassad considers it Novorossian), but there is still Ukrainian-controlled area to the East from Mariupol). Ukrainian map places front line at Shirokine, to the East from Sopino and Berdianskoe, making Sopino Ukrainian (there is another Berdiaskoe, to the west from Mariupol).  --Resup (talk) 21:22, 25 January 2015 (UTC)

It appears that there was Grad fire from the east (yurasmy mentions this), but there was also other fire, not all directions clear, and not all of them look immedeately like Grad (video). (Football field crater, if not fiddled with, would be Grad coming from the East; but it can be Ukrainian. Note that crater is not at 45 degrees as it would be for a shot from near-the-range distance; either more shallow or more vertical angle suggests a closer distance). This man account from a Ukrainian source, if accurate, is also consistent with Ukraine   firing East, for example from Sopino or other area of UAF control. He says it was Novoazovsk, but it would be hard to tell the difference. (Especially since according to his account he had a close call with explosions nearby, so would be pretty stressed. The man is clearly pro-Kiev regardless of the incident) --Resup (talk) 07:59, 25 January 2015 (UTC)
 * football field crater video, interesting. Might have come about on the camera's line of view, with some kind of twist in the impact, or a bit from the right as it mostly appears. strange damage. Besides the radial pattern, there seem to be extra horizontal marks preceding it. Might be a clue. Don't know how to measure it, but I agree the impact seems steep, and suggests a relatively close origin (how far, dunno, but an expert could say, or say nothing). --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:15, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Football field, hit from close to due east, maybe a bit southeast. If false flaggers are doing this stuff... they understand to do it in the right direction, and hope no one remembers how many places there are in any given direction.--Caustic Logic (talk) 13:43, 27 January 2015 (UTC)

"tape news video" has a useful scene I just placed. Scene 5, about 3:20 in, a hole in the roof and the wall from inside - might give a useable vertical angle. His compass seems to get 76-80 degrees, which might make sense depending on where, Readable coordinates are given, but they disagree just a bit with EarthTools. The given spot didn't match, but one a tad south at 47° 7' 22" N 37° 40' 52" E is a match. Here on Google Maps. The line from hole to hole appeared about perpendicular to the wall, making this a pretty due east rocket. But the screen said 76-80, from a bit north of west. So ?? Then a car is shown, hit very close, with no crater visible on the ground meaning direct hit to the car? It appears was parked facing west-ish, and hit from behind and driver's side, so partly from the south, and pushed into the next car. I can't get a clea number from that, but no way is it 76-80, or even 90 I think, but closer to these 100-degree lines or maybe even just south. (Not sure where to put it then) --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:21, 19 February 2015 (UTC)

OSCE video: Counting the Cost: The January Mariupol Offensive - leading title suggests there was only one Jan. "Mariupol offensive," so this terrorist attack and whatever Zakharchenko was talking are obviously the same. Anyway, shares two impact scenes, neither I'm familiar with, or seeming easy to place. One is shown with a compass, seems just a couple degrees north of 90, one of the closest I've seen to due east. I left comments there, hope they remain. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:16, 23 February 2015 (UTC)

West (Claimed)
There is said to be some verbal evidence for fire coming from the West, but details have not emerged yet. Visual discussed below is consistent with Grad coming from the East. Distance and angle of entry are related, but cannot be determined since breaking rings may be used on missile resulting in 3 possibilities for the distance (and the angle is unclear from what we see as well). --Resup (talk) 16:30, 28 January 2015 (UTC)

First, one claim of western fire was the left-right roll of impact fireballs seen looking north at at two buildings. But that was wrong; the view is of the same buildings, but from the east, looking west. So that's covered above under .--Caustic Logic (talk) 12:27, 8 February 2015 (UTC)

Steshin and Kots article. Their claim is that shell crater in the school  yard (shown in the article) was fired from the West. --Resup (talk) 18:56, 25 January 2015 (UTC)
 * map The wall to the west has broken glass; eastern side of crater has damage which may be back-blow (if this is Grad, it gets stuck at an angle and lower side explosion damage pavement; for shallow lodging Grad, little excavation in the front, but blast wave goes mostly to the front). In case this is Grad (some doubt as shallow crater and little shrapnel or soot seen, and no Grad pipes around), I'd say Grad coming from the East.
 * Little shrapnel damage- some towards SW and NW, on S and W walls, and very little on western side, suggesting low quality of Grad used; angle appears to be steep (also tricky to hit center of schoolyard otherwise); this suggest firing from not afar; all of that supports Ukrainian Grad coming from the east as more likely). --Resup (talk) 23:01, 25 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Ah! I just picked that spot maybe for the video scene, not seeing a car, but that spot shows the door and damage are the same, car just off-frame. Yandex street view, same color trim as seen inside anyway. App. same building shown from outside just before. Hard to set directions from inside. Blue door maybe connects to main doors, meaning south? That would mean we agree on the directions and that it came from the east. Others seem to agree, misread, and say it came from the west. So well agree on the directions. But the pavement is not a crater, as we know, so you can't read it like one. Other damage, I'll presume you're right, as it should all line up. Clean work so far. :) --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:37, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * In case two verbal explanations isn't enough:

--Caustic Logic (talk) 14:48, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Windows blown out in all directions, not just west. Otherwise, the point should be pretty clear there. Those impressive grooves in pavement that wasn't pierced point clearly, back to where the thing came from. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:30, 30 January 2015 (UTC)


 * Staryi Krym, northwest. DPR people claimed firing was from Старый Крым which would be government-held, and is here on Wikimapia, northwest of the attacked area.RIA Novosti, Jan 26, Russian, wayback machine archive. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:30, 16 February 2015 (UTC)

Dashcam Shrapnel
As mentioned above, the impact seen in the foreground, through the car windows ahead, at 0:28 in the dashboard camera video, may have a strong eastward force, meaning western origin. Shrapnel flies from that towards the camera (east) and slightly to the right (north). Not sure I have the angles mapped out right here, but here's the graphic again. Could use a counter-thought on this, like how it could be east, or north, or something else. Because for all my poo-pooing of west firing, this suggests to me a west or W-SW origin. In exactly one case so far. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:13, 21 February 2015 (UTC)


 * I did a more exact field of view analysis, and decided the impact in question could be in a wide range along its line of sight. (Known Grad shrapnel spread would help set the distance, maybe - one piece falls short and hits ground a ways out, two others on track the hit the sidewalk behind this car.) Whichever distance out, the difference isn't much. For shrapnel to fly from any spot in there to where it does, it suggests a momentum from due west +/- 1 deg, to a bit north of that, 172-174, or maybe a bit north of that. Small bits. Best reading is about 273 degrees west. One place on the right firing line for that, 16km out, is a farm or something at the north end of Radyanska Ukrayina. That has a nice ring to it. Other interesting possibilities further out and other possible lines slightly north. Stariy Krim, I think, still lacks forensic support. That would have to point far more north. But I was wrong to think south. left-to-right means little on this small scale. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:48, 8 March 2015 (UTC)

165 Olympska
F69olQcLlO8&t=26

Maybe I am missing something, but is not this OSCE guy showing us that this one has come from almost proper West? (and just a bit to the South)? Why than the announcer on this OSCE video tells about opolchenie to blame? The stick represents a Grad; white peace of paper is the North (has 1N written on it, and compass North points in the same direction) --Resup (talk) 19:18, 4 March 2015 (UTC)
 * Well, we're down to W-SW or E-NE at least. To me it looks the opposite, started burrowing in and blew up instantly at the concrete lip, leaving no crater. Maybe it didn't detonate fully, etc. I presumed that's what they read, and what they reported is all a bit north of east. If you rethink it and still think it's the other way, slap some sense into me. I'm all for west, if it pans out. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:00, 6 March 2015 (UTC)
 * This is heavy steel pipe, when it burrows in, it leaves a tunnel not much wider than the pipe; even more so since it is hard ground, concrete/asphalt. So the left (towards OSCE guy) part, wider than the pipe, with blown off shape,   is made by explosion, not borrowing in; and the opening in concrete, right side,  is made by back-blow. But most or blown out concrete is to the front of burrowed pipe (going left). This is really a small crater, smaller than it would be in soft  ground.  We see something similar at sport grounds crater, elsewhere in Mariupol, but there it is more obvious with more blown to the front stuff seen. The stick placed in there represents the Grad; and I think it represents it correctly. This is the direction the OSCE guy is measuring, so at this point it certainly appears he thinks it's coming from the West. I do not see a reason to reverse it; or it needs an explanation. --Resup (talk) 13:29, 6 March 2015 (UTC)
 * Had to pull up the video again (was going from the freeze-frame) It does look different from different angles, but you're right, there's a crater shape. And there's no "edge" to this concrete, shouldn't be, in the middle of the street. However - where the shrapnel went, as far as I can see, is into the wall to the south, then, and into the car's windshield. If that's it, visibly makes sense with the crater from that angle, means northwest. All seeming pretty light damage, makes me wonder if there's a missing part we don't see. Probably worth mapping out soon, should be semi-easy. Especially knowing which way is north. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:14, 6 March 2015 (UTC)
 * Shrapnel would go everywhere, the whole charge encasing  (roughly lower 1/3 of missile long; about 90 cm; about 3 ft )  gets broken into shrapnel peaces, not just the tip which sits in the ground. So on the back side, not all will go into ground, a lot will fly away --Resup (talk) 17:52, 6 March 2015 (UTC)
 * The stick: angled like that, it appears more to represent the rocket coming in, from the west. But then otherwise, it represents a centerline along the ground, which runs both ways. Shrapnel marks: will fly in all directions except backwards, and especially forwards. This - if from west or w-sw by those cards, worst damage seems to be kind of to the right, and only a bit ahead. I was baffled by the intact windows, but this must be the special analysis visit 3 days later, and they've been fixed. So the car may not matter. Only damage I see to the walls is moderate about due south, petering out a bit to the east, one tree heavily pock-marked. Maybe a bit of damage to the right as well, which would almost suggest north. But not near enough to suggest east over west. This is worth a placement now, and a panorama, plus the crater. Be back in a bit with those. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:39, 7 March 2015 (UTC)
 * Shrapnel add: the cut-off might be from the curve between radial blast and angled impact. The closest is scarred bad (pavement right below impact and to the sides), while the stuff pointing forward is also angled up and may arc a while before hitting anything. Hence, maybe in between, severe damage just ahead to left and right (only "recorded" on the right here), and it would rise and lessen a bit forward. 50% of shrapnel would just fall on the sidewalk and street to the east. After sweep up and new windows, there's little sign but that crater and those pockmarks. Is this a genius video or what? The next scene might show a west impact too, if the greatest light is through the hole in the wall as it should be. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:51, 7 March 2015 (UTC) and erred point stricken - that's east. Caustic Logic (talk) 05:49, 8 March 2015 (UTC)


 * No new images yet - the video has all that. No sure placement yet, but there are only a few places with a north-facing long wall, close street, continuing to the east. Surrounding scenes all seem near, but not sure. Only one spot mapped by IPHR or HRW is a fit in that basic sense anyway. That's IPHR #45 (mapped) - about perfectly placed at 165 Olympska. A building hit 42 should be above and to the right if so - they say it came from a bit south of east, 95 degrees, or straight up the street, shrapnel then off to the left. Might be the opposite of that, despite what the compass says. Might also be a different spot that didn't get mapped. (incidentally I found and located video of gits 46 and 39 - both some kind of e-ne) --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:51, 7 March 2015 (UTC)
 * What I said above about damage angling up - that seems to be the case here, and it angles up from left to right. If my point is valid (I think so) that suggests this came in from the east after all, a bit north of it. Damage worse in the forward direction as well higher: check. Continues on but higher: can't tell, guessing so. Door frame and green screen, likely damage. Does not blow backwards, check, if it was from north enough that white-painted tree was left of it and not behind. Sharp buckled edge on far side of crater: check. Crater: A lot of soil was blown out, hence the dark space. But it seems swept back in and leveled out since then. The street wasn't this dirty before, seems worse to the right/west. Just from the crater I can see both ways, but all in all I'm inclined to call this another standard east shot.--Caustic Logic (talk) 08:08, 8 March 2015 (UTC)
 * Not sure about conclusions based on damage part, this is an open space, and we do not even have a good view, based just on this video (I am unaware of other visuals apart from video) More of the blast will go forward than backward, but damage we are left to see afterwards also depends on what was in its way to record it for us. Backward shrapnel will hit the ground (thus often backmarking is seen on pavements); but it will ricochet from hard ground and still can hit things. Looking at crater again at 0:22 timestamp, it seems clear that more concrete was removed to the left from impact; less to the right, and more vertical edge to the right. That suggests it came from the right (i.e West). (As they are seen taking measurements, wonder what did this end up saying in their report, if anything at all) . --Resup (talk) 09:14, 8 March 2015 (UTC)
 * Near ground is marked because it's more down than back. Backwards just doesn't happen,
 * (?) There are different things, crater shape (where ground goes), and where shrapnel goes, this is not the same. Ground/debris mostly goes forward and a bit to sides (not much ground can go back as back is also into ground; speeds are quite low here, but a lot of stuff moves and gets captured on blast videos).  But shrapnel is very fast and can go everywhere (anywhere), shrapnel speed is greater than missile speed; + missile goes off on impact so it is nearly stuck before going off. For shrapnel, biased forward at most, but not that nothing goes back (because of missile tilt,  shrapnel going back is mostly  going to hit ground and ricochet, still can damage what gets in its way; warhead rear may produce some shrapnel on direct way back). Shrapnel is not what's obvious on blast videos, -there is not a lot of it (just metal encasing) and it's fast.    Good to get feedback from elsewhere here, having West is important  --Resup (talk) 14:45, 9 March 2015 (UTC)
 * except a bit to the sides maybe. Here, it seems to start at the tree with white, no marks visible on wall to the left or behind (from the angle I see) To the right, chipping damage starts low, continues rising to the right, with bigger chips. Could finish the composite view if that helps. --Caustic Logic (talk) 03:16, 9 March 2015 (UTC)

Southwest?
Here's a spot I just placed. RT video, street hit. Looks to me like it came from the opposite of how the tube's pointing now. I'm presuming others read it the other way, and maybe I'm wrong. But they do bend forward sometimes, the far side of the impact from here looks like the usual hacked up pavement on the backside of a blast. The massive fold could be from that blast pushing back, plus momentum (may be quite steep incoming) The near side looks like the cleaner, buckled up edge. And of course you can see where the main force of its fireball and shrapnel went - in the direction of that battered van, closer to the camera and to the left. This isn't the most obvious instance, but can this be wrong? It might be important... --Caustic Logic (talk) 03:16, 9 March 2015 (UTC)

That scene analysis only got interesting when I placed it: Seems to be on Kievskaya just north of the red covered market area, on the west side of the main market. on Google maps - maybe right at the end of that building 62 - a dot placed would look like it's marking that roof. That means IPHR didn't map it (it's not #76, nor #36, the nearest ones ) And the view is south; the (cathedral?) and an apartment block behind it in the distance sets that (see RT video 0:56), and everything else matches. Angle, if my scene reading is right, not sure yet. Seems more across the street than down it. So, from west-southwest, maybe 245-265 degrees is all I can say for now.
 * Darn foreshortening. This seems to be IPHR's impact 76, a bit further north than I thought. Predictably, they read it the other way around from me and decide it's from northeast, 70-80 degrees. Seems reasonable in a way - just look at that tube. But I looked closer and stand by my take so far. A Guardian report has a photo (supposed to - photo direct link) features a great photo view of this scene. That's a lot of pressure and shrapnel into that van to be blow-back. I don't see any sign of problems diagonally, forward if they're right: this one just blew up backwards, and did its pavement cratering backwards. But look at that tube. Indeed. Flayed wide open, the good photo makes me wonder if it's even connected or just laid in there. Blast-based bending isn't even necessary here, though that tube was clearly blown open more from the back side. Anyone who knows what southwest means could easily stomp this thing over to sort-of say northeast. As it sort-of does, as IPHR took too literally. So, as the graphic shows, I'm calling southeast, in the range of 224-242 degrees or so. Even though that's a total first, as far as I know. --Caustic Logic (talk) 07:58, 9 March 2015 (UTC)


 * Okay, the RT video at 1:27 shows considerable damage to the truck just south of the van, to its whole side, windshield, and hood. The van's backside seems totally unharmed, suggesting line of force there was close to parallel, not really south of it. Revised thinking, as in the revised graphic, less south: app. 250 degrees, give or take not much. The range 245-255 is generous. This means IPHR's better backwards reading would be 70, not 80. Counter-thoughts? --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:10, 9 March 2015 (UTC)
 * They don't give us a good view on crater shape here; but from what we can see, ground seems to be moved mostly in the direction they look (suggesting damage is by blow-back)  --Resup (talk) 15:34, 9 March 2015 (UTC)--Resup (talk) 15:34, 9 March 2015 (UTC)
 * You think so, huh? Well it is pretty close. I was too total above saying no backwards, but this seems too much. And it's hard to see the other end if there's more or any damage to the SW. As for the ground, I don't know if that's moved (not far) or just hacked. Shouldn't move much, it's asphalt. As we know one shows forward direction, one backwards. I wish I could find a better image. But the opposite side, besides not moved, isn't hacked. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:39, 9 March 2015 (UTC)


 * I'm starting to think that is the case. I had to map the scene out, again with my more rudimentary new MS Paint method. ...

First, I noted how close the apparent cabbage vendor who died was to this scene: app. 30 meters north of the shrapnel flying largely north through that windshield. (photo of the distance) But if the vehicle damage is blowback, this makes even more sense. What's across the street is key. No dead, no parked cars damaged, etc. But you'd think blow-forward should be even worse. Parked cars: looking around, like in the 16-min tour video, there were none parked on that side, except one a bit north, not clearly damaged. Building damage will be a bit higher. Kievskaya 62, inner wall and K66 outer wall will be the spots to check. K62 outer wall, perhaps. 13:13, we see possible marks there, some windows blown out (upper ones, nearest the corner - lower intact) But there's at least one unmapped impact perhaps to that roof edge (extra smoke-stained - just from other smoke rolling over?) Might have broken those windows. -13:19 K66 - lower windows out - 13:11, upper ones too, and inner - 13:22 K66 possible marks on lower wall - 13:49 windows out and marks near mid-building - 13:56 more up the 2/3 - 14:03 windows out, floors 2 and 3. There's never a view of the inner (north) side of K62. 13:26 is a slight view, little use. But likely, it was marked up and de-windowed as well.

SO, I can see this being northeast, at least as good now. Inventing a new direction is no good, better double-check that the evidence actually did it for you. Probably not here. One things is the clean pavement on approach side, and the major blowback a bit higher: Of course there's massive blow "back" if it's allowed, comes in steep enough like _/ that it's closer (rel) to vertical. Horizontal trajectory doesn't get defied much, but a bomb straight down has no 'horizontal' trajectory. This may have had pretty little of it. The forward direction of shrapnel (to the SW here)will also be more direct and closer to horizontal, lower damage profile, more deadly - close enough, mostly lower floors damaged, and no one was out, or parked. Luckt side, or things we don't see. Steeper angle means it was fired from pretty close on this line. Maybe from Vodyane 8km out, or even just north of Lebedynske (government-held-except-maybe ), about 5 km out. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:48, 10 March 2015 (UTC)

Tweet with follow-ups sent to Armed Research - who else? Anyone feel free to pester him or whoever for a confirmation or refutation. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:39, 9 March 2015 (UTC)
 * Never did hear back. That happens. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:48, 10 March 2015 (UTC)

North/Northeast
Rusvesna, has an audio of a caller linked. The caller, resident of Mariupol for 40 years, tells that in his opinion after seeing video material on internet he thinks fire came from the North and North East. A family friend of his had balcony on the Northern side of the building teared off by Grad missile. He tells that in the northern direction there is the village Sartana. Behind it, on the so-called tarmac, there are UAF Grads, all Mariupol knows this , and from there  shots were fired. Does not believe UAF account giving direction in distance, all determined within 2 hours. The caller is not happy with Azov battallion in the city as they create many problems --Resup (talk) 16:18, 25 January 2015 (UTC)

Another video shows different craters; fire came from NNE and very likely Ukrainian. Audio is in Russian, but graphics makes the claim quite clear. Presenter refers to military maps to claim that opolchenie was attacking nearby and could be the target. So that would be accidental shelling by Ukraine. --Resup (talk) 02:03, 26 January 2015 (UTC)
 * This sounds interesting. Ready for a third direction, but maybe not 'til tomorrow. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:25, 28 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Damn I'm good. Again, a failed geo-location. If looking northeast across that building, there's another building east of it that isn't there on the map. No major street to the west of it either. Right type of building. Is there another? Yes, not far east of there, with better matches all around. Building orientation is the same, basic view and points should be about the same, I think. (if they got that right, we'll see) --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:51, 28 January 2015 (UTC)


 * Scene 1, placed right - still can't see how it hits. The smoke rolls to the west with winds. Can't vouch for this one.
 * scene 2, the park: appears to come from N-NE like they say.
 * scene 3, sidewalk hit: Not sure how he read this, graphics were confusing. But it's clearly from the east, if that's a north-south street like identified.
 * So, just one hit out of three that I can agree with so far.--Caustic Logic (talk) 00:35, 29 January 2015 (UTC)

HRW reports "The impacted buildings had all been hit on the exterior wall facing due east, or in the case of one building, on the wall facing northeast." Their map of inspected locations shows they did not look at the spot for scene 2, above, even theough they looked at three spots right next to there. Still, they saw one northeast impact, so that plus scene 2 means at least two. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:39, 8 February 2015 (UTC)

NNE - Olympiyska 167
This 'Scene 2' is important - centered on Wikimapia - just short of hitting that wing of the block it came in perpendicular to. closest car, shrapnel damage photo --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:03, 16 February 2015 (UTC)

That building is Olympiyska 167, graphic showing it and neighboring Olympska 161, 163, and 165. Videos: --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:48, 17 February 2015 (UTC)
 * 1) main scene in its own video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L96OWa6AP5w
 * 2) Hromadske, great resolution https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fphX1kjnBpk
 * 3) "Tape news" Fumbling with the heading from 5:00 to end: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9eJpxboxwc#t=306

Damage: To the broad NE wall of O167, narrow W wall of O161, the car (mainly side, barely the back). To include that, it must have some serious degree of north origin. Hromadske video shows best how the pockmarks extend across inner wall a bit, slanting upward - not clear how far, but across the span between the two balconies, apparently. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:32, 17 February 2015 (UTC)

Direction Estimates:
 * As graphic shows, I call 35 degrees as roughly the best angle. 15, maybe. 45, maybe. 65, not really.
 * IPHR, implicitly: somewhere between 65 and 80 degrees. Explicitly, their impact #41 came from 68 degrees.
 * Host of V1 notes rocket tube points one way, pavement damage points a slightly different way, and points like the pavement damage does - a bit north of perpendicular to this street, about 35 degrees. I agree. (the analysis video where this is scene 2 seems to read a more due north line I don't agree with)
 * Video 3 host doesn't seem to get a set reading he likes, but at the end I see the numbers 33, 35, and 39 rolling by.
 * Video 2 hosts: one points over the left side of O165, almost due north. Video description, translated, says impacts "point to the East (Novoazovsk) and northeast (Kominterna)." Another host w/modern 'compass' says "north and east, northeast" (single direction) - screen reading unclear. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:32, 17 February 2015 (UTC)

So far this is the only case I've seen where it points so much north. Looking for any similar line it might be part of, as a token one-off from an direction sounds pretty odd. Significance: let's take a 30 degree line, just as likely as 35, really. If we extend that out 5 km, it crosses a Ukrainian military testing ground on the outskirts of Sartana. For example. And yeah, further out from the proving ground, some rebel-held towns. And ... looks to me like this thing really nose-dived a long ways down before it buried itself deep in the ground, spreading its force relatively little in the horizontal direction. That means, it came from nearby, maybe 5 km or so. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:36, 19 February 2015 (UTC)

NNE - other?
So far, the above is the only instance of a seen and measurable impact originating so far north. It would be useful to see more and clearer examples, as this one is a bit subjective and debatable. But so far nothing. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:17, 23 February 2015 (UTC)

a former resident's analysis at Fort Russ concluded "Judging by those photos and videos, of which there are many online, I, as a Mariupol resident for 40 years, determined the direction as North - North-East." Of course living in Mariupol a long time doesn't make one an expert. The fact that he cites "the" direction, and one with so little support, is problematic. Most seem to be in the range 80-100 degrees. Best reason to conclude NNE (45 degrees or less) is that one unusual case. The one support he cites: "Furthermore, a good friend of my father's lives there. His balcony was taken out by the MRLS rocket. His balcony is on the Northern side of the building." If this was a due-north face, and the rocket tore off the balcony rather than blew his apartment open, this sounds more like the common E-NE than the damning N-NE. I haven't yet placed a north-facing balcony torn off - will need visuals and a map spot, in time. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:17, 23 February 2015 (UTC)

Other-Unsure-General
This is point #24 on the IPHR map, as they note hit from the east-southeast, from a compass heading broadly between 100 and 10 degrees. I agree after thinking it through from this video still, carefully placed to the same spot. And I get the same kind of reading. Like most walls here, this runs 5 degrees clockwise from north to start, so 100 is only a 5 degree offset. From near-corner on one balcony inward to near-wall on the next one in the space between those points is a few degrees out there. My span is at least 105, maybe as high as 130 degrees, best range 112-118 or so. Vertical angle of the rocket (the red bar here) should be shown a bit shallower. It should be perpendicular to the line of heavy damage at detonation (yellow lines and scribbles). This is more a line than a curving ring, which keeps me thinking it's pretty close to parallel and not too far from the south. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:16, 8 March 2015 (UTC)
 * Note: I saw a photo showing more clearly the depth here. The right-hand 'balcony' barely sticks out at all compared to the left. So the angle is probably about 3 degrees less - best range 109-115 or so.--Caustic Logic (talk) 23:14, 10 March 2015 (UTC)

This is from Azov Public TV, scene 6. This is point #10 on the IPHR map, no direction given, set a few meters south of correct. I started the discussion page unsure which kind of close-to-parallel this is. Seems close to the corner to be from northeast, but it's also a high-level hit, and may have come in steep (from near). Near-parallel is from the line of shrapnel - closer to a line than a ring = closer to parallel than perpendicular. I've decided on northeast over south. What degree, unsure. seems parallel, again, to a wall running north-south, so might be unusually north. Vertical angle: line of damage here is kind of perpendicular to the rocket's angle downward ... it came in pretty steep, so from nearby (exact degree, I can't say) --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:16, 8 March 2015 (UTC)

Here's another pretty perpendicular-seeming impact. view looking in - same - woman walking by. It could have come in from left-to-right, but to me it looks the opposite way. Relative angle, well under 45 degrees. 15-30? The last view especially makes this seem to be within in the market area. That means it wasn't counted by IPHR or HRW - they have one hit in the south lot only. We have a long building to the right, a good sized one to the left, in the distance, left, perpendicular apartment blocks. I think it's in the northwest corner of the market, between the big building and the skinny one on the edge, looking south. distant buildings are 7 and 5 Kievskaya. So impact rom hard northeast, maybe 20-35 deg?. Or southeast? or a variant of either that's closer to straight east?--Caustic Logic (talk) 14:02, 9 March 2015 (UTC)
 * Graphic shows where I think it is. Since no one else mapped it yet, it's worth this graphic at least. Still seems from the north/right (closer chips in wall, glancing shrapnel on other side - one bit low, one on upper window frame, the rest inside). Angle: it won't have to fly down the alley; it's wide enough it could come down between from many angles. May have even hit the opposite roof first, but without detonating. No set angle I can decide on, just a broad range: 20-80 degrees, NE sector. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:14, 10 March 2015 (UTC)

Several Attacks?
Russian wikipedia gives 3 attacks, 9:15 am, 13:00, and 17:06, giving Azov battalion as the source. The first two attacks said to hit residential area of Vostochnoe. --Resup (talk) 15:21, 27 January 2015 (UTC)

The few different attacks and the timeline of all this is quite interesting. I have at least two sources I want to lay out here, maybe there are others, that will flesh out the timeline and maybe present interesting things like discrepancies. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:23, 17 February 2015 (UTC)

OSCE Special Monitoring Mission spot report:
 * "At approximately 09:15hrs on 24 January, the SMM in government-controlled Mariupol heard at its location incoming massed Multi-Launch Rocket System (MLRS) attacks from a north-east direction, consisting of an extremely heavy barrage lasting 35 seconds." (Grad attack from NE they say)
 * "At 13:02hrs and 13:21hrs the SMM heard again incoming MLRS salvos lasting for eight seconds, from an easterly direction." (Urugans from the east)
 * Nothing later mentioned

IPHR report, PDF: International Partnership for Human Rights has these events listed:
 * Around 8 AM: A shelling attack to the north near Sartana took out power to the Vostochniy district. They went dark there, interesting.
 * At an unsure time, a checkpoint in Vynogradne - implicitly then government-held - was also shelled, causing a power outage there too.
 * Vostochniy itself was shelled around 9:20 am
 * 13:00 attack w/40 Grads - checkpoint hit, no injuries, according to Azov.
 * 15:00 warning issued of another attack, based on military intel, but none came.
 * Nothing else mentioned for the day

External Clues

 * Grad Distance Strelkov_info: long report from opolchenie. 2 types of breaking rings can be installed on a Grad missile, which means that 3 distances are possible, knowing angle of entry (thanks for that!)
 * Verbal evidence of launches south of Talakhovka, to the NE from the area hit. Also evidence for E or rather SE; shots fired from Vinogradnoe or Pionerskoe. Western shots suspected but no proof apart from verbal evidence. --Resup (talk) 05:32, 28 January 2015 (UTC)

Claims
Eduard Basurin, assistant head, MOD DPR. At about 2 pm on Saturday, UAF in error shelled  positions of  their own 18 battalion of 28 mechanized brigade at Vinogradnoe, considering it to be a DPR detachment. Shelling was from Berdyanskoie, on the western outskirts of Mariupol. Up to 15 UAF soldiers were killed. Due to incorrect fire correction, some of UAF Grads hit a residential area of Vostochnyi micro-district. --Resup (talk) 19:14, 25 January 2015 (UTC)

The SBU's Spotter
Military Studies, ‏@ArmedResearch tweets Jan. 25 "#Ukraine has accused a local #Mariupol police officer named Kirsanov of being a spotter for #NAF artillery." In contexy, it seems they say the targets weren't chosen at random, but well-selected to cause random civilian deaths, like terrorists might do. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:43, 26 January 2015 (UTC)
 * But the claim does not make sense, they do not operate like this, and even if they do, that civilian or another would make no difference, no spotter needed to hit a city, and there is no way to target particular individual by Grad, a carpet bombing weapon. --Resup (talk) 15:27, 26 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Here is the video anyway. When he saw saw UAF personnel or equipment, he used Google Earth at home to get the coordinates. Than sent it to "terrorist," -Ponomarenko, who he knew for 6 years, the commander of 1 Slaviansk company of NAF, or in his absence to "pepel" (ash) by SMS; that was going on for 6 months. Gave coordinates of checkpoint on Taganrogskoe " the day before yesterday ." (earlier, gave coordinates of Vinogradnoe and Pikuzovskaia Trassa=Motorway) "They were supposed to shell it at night, but it happened at  8 am". "Missed by 1 km". Told his bosses that fire missed and  there are many killed. They asked, where it appears to be coming? He said, Vinogradnoe.  His Novorossia contact "pepel" was "Russian officer" commanding a (rocket) artillery battalion. Well all that sounds fake to me (either he is working for SBU, or coerced to say all that. Very pointedly tells about  "Russian officer"   in the end;  will be caught if really doing this for 6 months using SMS). In any case even if everything he say is true, this is accidental miss. And clear anyway that cannot be anything but accidental.  --Resup (talk) 00:53, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Russian MOD respose: it's fake, reads from the list to his right; knows real names, call-names, citizenship, rank, unit, and equipment of his "bosses" which would be appropriate for resident intelligence officer, not fire correction guy; claims that fire came from Vinogradnoe which is where UAF checkpoint is, and which is 3 km to the South (role poorly learned implied; a little bit of twist here). --Resup (talk) 01:18, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Finally read it myself, and watched the video finally, and they make some good points. They call the video a fake or "as one may call it a 'self-disclosure session' – by the SBU." Cool. The list-reading thing is interesting but inconclusive. Having so much information on the Russian villains to hand over does not really line up. But the most interesting point is one I'm not sure yet what to make of - he points to both a rebel attack on, and from, the same place that some fire really might have come from, based on the video record.
 * “At 1:42 of his ‘confession’ video, Kirsanov said that he sent his contacts the coordinates of a stationary checkpoint of Ukrainian troops in Vinogradnoe village...At 2:22 of the clip, when answering the question: ‘From where did the fire come?’ Kirsanov said with confidence: ‘From the direction of Vinogradnoe.’ In other words, from the direction where the Ukrainian military checkpoint was stationed,” the statement said.--Caustic Logic (talk) 11:48, 18 February 2015 (UTC)

Terrorist Cell Neutralized
SBU chief Valentin Nalyvaichenko announced on February 4, per Interfax Ukraine "Today we can report that an operation on neutralizing a terrorist [was successful], he was directly managed by Russian artillery and committed shell attacks, and all his ten accomplices have been neutralized," he said at a briefing in Kyiv on Wednesday ... [and] reiterated that this was the third stage of the special operation to neutralize the terrorist group, comprised of the Russian servicemen, who shelled Mariupol on January 24.'' As background, this group included a member who called himself "terrorist," although his subordinate "Ash" took the calls on the day of the attack. This report sounds like he had an 11-man team, and all 12 were totally Russian and totally killed, remotely with artillery or something, as they were in terrorist turf and couldn't be arrested. They can't show any proof, because of that and because "Russian troops, in order to conceal their crimes, have evacuated the bodies of militants to Russia." These Russian terrorists did totally exist, he says, but now they're gone with no trace and therefore case closed. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:28, 1 March 2015 (UTC)

Casualties?
Latest Western reports say now 30 killed, 102 injured. Rocket attacks, said to be Grad, on homes and shops on Saturday morning. Police chief says “The nearest Ukrainian army checkpoint outside the city is about [3 miles] from the place, and the terrorists know well where it is, because they have already shot at it many times in the last three days.” Does have the hallmarks of terrorism, not mistake. Separatists announced a five-front offensive the day before - whoever wants to make that look bad is a potential suspect. LA Times, said 26 dead when I started reading)--Caustic Logic (talk) 02:26, 25 January 2015 (UTC)

Individual Victims
Some reports note she got what she "asked for," if not deserved; in this terrorist attack, at least one death to almost cheer. This one says: ''A Ukrainian blogger named Fedor Kulikov was the first one to notice Olga’s name in the list of those killed in the shelling of Mariupol. According to the information in it, Olga’s body was recovered near Kyivsky market, where she was probably buying vegetables and meat for her family when the carnage began.'' So her home wasn't hit, apparently. I was wondering. She seemed like a good person otherwise, family-oriented, the report notes. But by supporting the "Russian World" and inviting it to Mariupol, she clearly "want(ed) death and destruction on her own city" and became "a cheerer for her executioners." How that came to be is a mystery they suggest comes from nature; an example for how these idiot Russian terrorists keep killing their own supporters all over the occupied Donbas might be found in "some forms of hair worms" that can be self-destructive. Huh. --Caustic Logic (talk) 03:36, 22 February 2015 (UTC)
 * Olga Abdurashitova age 27. Euro-Maidan Press: Girl cheers for Russian invasion, is killed by Russian artillery

Locations
Location we tried to geolocate, tall buildings hit by Grad, according to latest version described, is very close to Kiev Market place.

Kiev Market.
It appears to be a building to the West of what looks like  parking lot from above (map,view). It seems to be one of the two market places hit and where people actually died. I do not know where is yellow building from peo-Ukrainian witness video; there is a yellow building close by on Kiev street, but it is not the right one (wrong yellow building)--Resup (talk) 18:34, 27 January 2015 (UTC)

This pro-Kiev video seems to correctly say Grad was going 'left to right', (asphalt pieces  blown  mostly in that direction, and  pavement mark on the opposite side), this will be going West on Marshrutnaia street, from центр окон (tsentr Okon-Windows Center) to   эконом магазин (Econom Magazin--which he says Fast Food). So coming from the East and going to the West. But this is only one Grad, we seem to have barrage of Grads nearby going from a different (Southern) direction). So what's going on here? Something came first, and another as a cover-up? (Econom Magazin-Fast Food on the map) . Shallow angle again, suggesting it came from not that far--exact location provided in the video is propaganda. --Resup (talk) 19:20, 27 January 2015 (UTC)

Not difficult for Ukraine to do it, for example first accidental hit of this market from somewhere between Vinogradnoe and Primorskoe. Than another hit to cover-up, starting from Primorskoe, Sopino, or Berdiaevo   they control, moving on the road North couple of kilometers, --there are such roads in any of the three locations,--than firing at the same area. This particular Grad we see on video landed 50 m off the market and did not kill anybody at the market. Somebody in Econom/Fast Food could be hit. map --Resup (talk) 19:40, 27 January 2015 (UTC)

'Denis' Market
'Denis' Market. Reports say that this market was hit as well. --Resup (talk) 00:24, 28 January 2015 (UTC)

Hearts and Minds
Pro-Kiev and anti-Kiev forces are both blamed for this attack. Both sides claim the locals as their people, and they wouldn't attack their own people. Both sides are facing a situation where government control is threatened and rebels could take over. DO they enlist sympathetic locals, or terrorize them into submission if so? Opinions may differ. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:48, 1 March 2015 (UTC)

Commander of the reconnaissance regiment Azov Sergey Korotkov is telling why Mariupol was shelled, posted 24 01 2015 by Grigory Grinvich.
 * 0:09 we see street name (Kievskaia?), and shrapnel pockmarks
 * and what's noteworthy is that over here we have "Left Sector" (i.e. opposite Right Sector, making it pro-Novorossian). Communiaki (derogatory from communists) received what they wanted.
 * 0:24 windows are broken
 * 0:30 "Russian World" (sarcasm)  Let's bring the Russian world to every home.
 * 0:42 (can you believe it --) they suggested to move artillery back 15 km ??? So that they could just arrive here and shoot
 * 0:55 "broken windows, shrapnel marks"
 * 1:00 lar'ki (=light structures used to sell some goods) . (We see windows center on Marshrutnaia street, discussed above)
 * 1:05 "We are now at a house on Nezhinskaia (?) street", where Grad hit (map of the area shown). This is not by accident that (it hit here? coming over some noise). Direct hit. Many hits over hear,cars are on fire, 20 people were killed, many wounded
 * 1:23 Here is the summary: anybody can check for oneself that this is not an accidental hit. There is no Ukrainian military here, and never have been. This area, as graffiti on some walls show, some fans of the Russian World live. Those who want the Russian World--see, here you got it.
 * 1:56 here there were never any Ukrainian military
 * (The video is interpreted as evidence of intentional shelling by Ukraine by the person who posted the video. This may be a bit too strong, but also quite clear that Azov battalion is not at all fond of civilians sympathizing opolchenie, and they are aware that such civilians live in the area.) --Resup (talk) 02:30, 28 January 2015 (UTC)


 * Indeed. He's amused by it, half-smile and sparkling eyes as he considers the delicious, not sad, irony of it. He's central in my new article Mariupol Market Massacre part 4: Whose Terrorism?


 * Amused pro-Kiev profile of one local woman killed after asking for the "Russian world." Got what she asked for, basically. She and those like her are compared to self-destructive parasitic worms. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:48, 1 March 2015 (UTC)

Reports of "almost weekly" reports of rape and related abuses by occupying forces, mainly by Azov battalion. One troubling example --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:48, 1 March 2015 (UTC)

George Eliason, in a widely-read article with some technical errors (no south firing) but that may truly reflect the locals' beliefs in saying:
 * The militia near Mariupol is comprised of local city residents. Like soldiers in Donetsk and Lugansk, the city is their home town. Its where there family and friends live. Its where they grew up, went to school, and work. Their own children go to school there. Is there a benefit to firing rockets at your own neighbors and family? ... The impact locations are squarely in ethnic Russian areas that support the local militia and where their families are located. --Caustic Logic (talk)