Turkish Downing of Russian Su-24

On November 24, 2015, Turkish military jets fired on and downed a Russian fighter jet near the Syrian border (side disputed), as it carried out missions against Turkish-supported terrorist organizations inside Syria, at the request of the Syrian government. The pilot was killed as he parachuted out, while the co-pilot landed safely and was later rescued, insisting they never entered Turkish airspace, and never received a warning and thus were given no chance to avoid being shot down. Local terrorists also shot at a rescue helicopter that came in after, killing a Russian marine on board.

Context

 * US moving F-16s to Turkey - Lucas Tomlinson, Fox News August 07, 2015
 * Obama deploys F-15C jets to Turkey can't drop bombs to protect US bombers - DailyMail, Nov. 3, 2015
 * ''Fighter planes the Obama administration is deploying to Turkey can't drop bombs – so are they meant for dogfights with the Russians?
 * Dogfights Next? US Sends F-15 Jets To "Counter" Russian Air Force Over Syria - ZeroHedge, Nov. 3, 2015
 * US deploys 6 F-15 jets to Turkish air base - Suzan Fraser, Associated Press, Nov. 6, 2015
 * Commander of Russian aerospace forces Victor Bondarev stated that Turkish F-16 launched an attack from Syrian territory, maneuvered afterwards trying to stay below/avoid radar detection. He also stated that the Russian plane did not violate Turkish airspace. lenta.ru, 27.11.2015 It was not enough time to intercept Russian plane from an airbase in Turkey; therefore Bondarev suggests that the whole operation was pre-planned. No warning was made on the previously agreed radio frequency.
 * Russia has grounds to suspect that the aircraft was downed to secure illegal oil deliveries from Syria to Turkey.
 * Putin: "Russia has grounds to suspect that the aircraft was downed to secure illegal oil deliveries from Syria to Turkey."


 * Erdogan said he will resign if this is proven to be true. As quoted by TASS: "We are not that dishonest as to buy oil from terrorists. If it is proven that we have, in fact, done so, I will leave office. If there is any evidence, let them present it, we’ll consider [it]"


 * More on the claims, including an appeal to the US to investigate the facts -TASS, English

Pre-planning
"Look, we have informed our American partners in advance about where, when, and at what echelons, our pilots will operate. The American side, which heads the coalition --which also includes Turkey-- knew the place and time of our aircraft stay. And it was right there, and at that time we got a hit. The question is: why do we have this information passed on to the Americans? Either they do not control what their allies do, or the information is handed out left and  right, not caring what are the consequences. And we, of course, will have to have serious enough  consultations with our partners on this matter." "Regarding our aircraft, which reportedly were not recognized by the Turkish Air Force - it is impossible! They have markings, and can be clearly seen. These are our planes, and not some other"
 * Putin press conference with Hollande- TASS and full transcript:

"It is unfortunate that rather than deal seriously, deeply and work hard to make sure this never happen again, we hear muffled explanations, claims that even there is nothing to apologize for. Well, (what can I say),this is not our choice, this is the choice of the Turkish side..."

U.S. involvement

 * BOMBSHELL: Ambush of Russian Bomber Was Guided by US Reconnaissance - Alexey Leonkov, Regnum, via Russia Insider, November 30, 2015
 * US failed to prevent Turkey from downing Russian jet despite air safety deal – Moscow - RT, Dec 14, 2015

Warnings

 * No warnings from Turkish jets before attack, video interview with rescued Russian Su24 Navigator, translated, RT, 25.11.2015. Navigator stated that they never crossed into Turkey, and that there was no warnings (no radio warnings received, and no visual warning)
 * According to Russian officials, at the start of Russian operations, a direct contact with Turkey was established. Also safety of flight measures between Russia and NATO were established. Neither was used in this incident.
 * ‘I knew it was going to happen’: MEA pilot recalls downing of Russian jet - Faisal J. Abbas, Al Arabiya News, 25 November 2015
 * ''“Unknown air traffic position onto Humeymim 020, redirect to 26 miles. This is Turkish Air Force speaking - en guard. You are approaching Turkish airspace. Change your heading south immediately.,” the Turkish officer was repeatedly saying.
 * ''The MEA pilot explained that from what he gathers, Tuesday's incident was not the first as he had heard similar warnings over his radio transmission for the past month.
 * The Turkish military has released an audio recording of what it says were warnings to a Russian warplane before it was shot down on the Syrian border
 * In Russian sources, Russian military is quoted saying that release of any evidence related to the shoot down was denied by Turkish military, and that Turkish MOD did not provide an audio of the warning to the media. Russian sources suggested that the audio recording could be faked.

"Now it so happens that Su-24s have no radios onboard for receiving UHF-frequency signals, a fact which is well known to American, NATO and Turkish intelligence." Thus, while "it's likely true that the Turks radioed warnings…those warnings may have been deliberately transmitted only on the international civilian frequency so that the Su-24s would never hear them.""
 * F-16 Designer: Turkey 'Set up an Ambush' for Unsuspecting Russian Su-24, Sputnik News, Dec. 11, 2015

Shooting

 * Turkish F-16 attacked Russian Su-24 without warning, both were above Syria – commander - RT, 27 Nov, 2015
 * Greek Defense Ministry confirms Russian Su-24M bomber was downed in Syrian airspace - TASS, December 02, 2015

Flight Recorder

 * Flight recorder found, - Rusvesna and Anna News, Dec.8, 2015. It is hoped that it will help to confirm the plane location. Flight recorder is delivered to Putin, who orders Shoigu to open and examine it only in the presence of foreign experts-TASS (report and photo), Dec. 8, 2015.
 * Putin invites British experts to take part in deciphering data from Su-24 flight recorders, TASS (English), Dec.9. 2015
 * Black Box of Downed Su-24 Damaged – Russian Defense Ministry, The (pro-Western/Western run) Moscow Times, Dec 18, 2015. --Resup (talk) 18:28, 20 December 2015 (UTC) "Experts from China and India were present when the box was opened. Ministry official Sergey Dronov told Interfax that experts from 14 countries had been invited, but most of them refused to participate. Experts from China, United States and Britain will observe the black box data decryption process, Dronov said, RIA Novosti reported. The final results of the decryption are scheduled to be published on Dec. 21, Defense Ministry officials said at the briefing."

News Yahoo/AFP "Officials warned that the memory card sustained damage as they opened the orange-painted flight recorder, with British and Chinese experts observing the procedure, an AFP correspondent saw."


 * Exclusive: NATO agrees Turkey air defense package, seeks 'predictability', Dec. 18, 2015
 * At a press-conference on Dec 21, it was announced that direct reading of memory was not possible due to damage (some cards are heavily damaged, in couple of others electric contact is lost). Specialists would be called to attempt bit-by-bit reading from damaged memory cards crystals. That will take some time to do. Text report (TASS, Rus.) 13 out of 16 memory cards are said to be 'destroyed', 3 other 'damaged.'

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Who was targeted by bombing?

 * A Turkmen group (linked with Grey Wolves on social media) claimed that they were targeted, and took responsibility for pilot death.
 * In a subsequent strike, it is said that two of killed militants were identified (REN TV-Novosti) as Abu Basir al-Britain, British, who fought for the "Al-Nusra Front," and Abu Salim, head of the rebel coastal First Division. It is said that Abu Basir al-Brittany really is Lucas Kinney, a son of Hollywood director Patrick Kinney (seen on Cassad and REN TV article; unverified).

Effects

 * Bitter statements by Russian officials made warning of serious consequences to bilateral ties, and expecting an apology, punishing those responsible, compensating damage, etc. (Erdogan won't apologize, would do the same again).
 * Russia cuts military contacts with Turkey (including the 'hot line').
 * Russia upgrades its anti-aircraft defenses, including S-400 deployment (range up to 400 km), "Fort" system on "Moskva" ship (S-300 equivalent), more fighter planes, and other unspecified measures
 * Russia cancels FM visit to Turkey and a summit planned for mid-December in St. Petersburg, cuts economic cooperation and tourism.
 * Russia seeks economic revenge against Turkey over jet - Reuters, November 26, 2015*
 * "Turkish stream" and nuclear power station projects may be cut.


 * Russia announces that visa-free travel to Turkey, a popular tourist and small/private commerce destination, will be suspended. Turkey has many construction projects in Russia, the fate of those is uncertain
 * Protesters in Moscow pelted Turkish embassy with eggs, paint, and stones. Twitter movement "I will not travel to Turkey" ( #неЕдувТурцию ) started and gained popular support.
 * Heavy bombardment of rebel areas by Syrian and Russian forces
 * Turkish military flights in Syria (as well as other cross border traffic) might pose some health hazards - Turkey suspends Syria flights after crisis with Russia

Effect on broad coalition and Vienna process
Lavrov: "If Russian aircraft downing by Turkish aircraft on November 24 was intended to undermine the prospects for creating a common front against terrorism, and the prospects for the political process in the framework of the Vienna group, the Turkish side will not succeed with this."

Diplomatic relations

 * DIPLOMACY - Erdoğan: No apology to Russia, they need to apologize to us - Hurriyet Daily News, November 26, 2015
 * Erdogan Says Turkey Will Not Apologize for Downing Russian Su-24 - Sputnik, November 26, 2015
 * Azerbajan leader Ilham Alief offers to mediate- trend.az, 27.11.2015 (best shot on diplomatic front on the matter; no response so far)


 * Seven month later, June 27, 2016: [Turkish President Apologizes to Putin for Downing of Russian Military Jet Turkish President Apologizes to Putin for Downing of Russian Military Jet] Time, via Yahoo News
 * The Kremlin on Monday released the excerpts of Erdogan’s letter. “I would like to express my sympathy and deep condolences to the family of the dead Russian pilot and I say I’m sorry,” the Kremlin said on its website quoting Erdogan. “I share their pain with all my heart.”

Pilot killer detained by Turkey?
31.3.2016 RIA: Militant Alparslan Celik who had previously taken the responsibility for the murder of the Russian Su-24 pilot Oleg Peshkov, was indeed detained in Izmir in western Turkey, confirmed to the RIA Novosti a source in the city police.

Analysis

 * Turkey Is Lying — Paul Craig Roberts - November 25, 2015
 * Turkey ‘Ambushed’ Russian Su-24 to Protect Terrorists – NYU Professor - Sputnik, November 26, 2015
 * Turkey shoots down Russian plane: Physicists say both official accounts are scientifically impossible - The Independent, 28.11.2015
 * ''Dr Tom van Doorsslaere and Dr Giovanni Lapenta from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven say the plane was travelling too fast for Turkey's account and could not do the 90 degree turn Russia claims it did
 * (Note: Russian updated version, schematic in any case, does not have impossible turns.)
 * Russian Retaliation Will Be Defeating NATO in Syria - Tony Cartalucci, December 3, 2015
 * Apparently a number of people made the same observation immediately after the shoot-down, e.g. this twitter . It will be fair perhaps to seek a comment; e.g. as the general has a twitter account
 * Mountain Ambush - Andrew Cockburn, December 4, 2015
 * ''“Looking at the detailed Russian timeline of what happened,” says defense analyst Pierre Sprey, “I’d say the evidence looks pretty strong that the Turks were setting up an ambush.”
 * Erdogan: the Trojan Horse of Terror - Ghassan Kadi, The Saker, December 8, 2015
 * Ankara falls into Moscow's trap - Kadri Gursel, Al Monitor (Turkey Pulse), December 9, 2015
 * How likely is it that the recent violation of Turkish airspace by Russia was a mistake? Is Russia attempting to violate Turkey as it did Ukraine? - Ozgur Zeren, Quora, Dec 9, 2015