Talk:Attack on Red Crescent convoy in Urm al-Kubra

Reactions
As of now: --Resup (talk) 08:50, 20 September 2016 (UTC)
 * TASS, 20 Sept. 2016. US accusation, "most likely an airstrike, not by (US) coalition" is repeated, pointed out that UN could not confirm information on those killed "as was considered at that time, due to shelling". Apart from skeptical tone, no further comment provided in the article.
 * SANA. No comment on attack seen. Bogdanov visit and further fresh steps of solving crisis discussed
 * Joint press release of Red Cross/Crescent, around twenty civilians and Omar Barakat were killed, nothing about nature or origin of "horrific attack" --CE (talk) 12:18, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

What happened?
(After seeing nighttime video and immediate US accusations): Available evidence consists of videos and White Helmets story. Several destroyed trucks, fires still burning, no craters seen, some holes possibly from shrapnel but not for certain, and not a lot. There is a damaged passenger car clearly seen, but it could be damaged earlier. Content is thrown around but appears largely intact; possibly heating damage on packaging. Many ways to cause what is seen on video, some shelling (mortars/artillery/MLRS), staging, bombing from helicopter, or plane. Place, uncertain but building has distinct appearance and could be located. Time of attack, stated on the video, is 7:30 pm, Sept 19, 2016. --Resup (talk) 08:50, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

(After seeing some daytime photos/videos): clearly a quite substantial strike. Shrapnel damage, and fire damage. 4 twitter photos: photo 3, apparently an explosion at ground level, or possibly inside the cabin; no crater on the ground. Bent metal sheet on top appears to be by explosion outside; but also small part of roof is caved in a bit, making this tricky. Direct hit on top by aerial bomb will almost certainly obliterate the cabin, not slightly bent the roof in. Photo 4: small craters are seen mostly resembling mortar or MLRS, flying, apparently, left to right, but quite clearly not top to bottom. Elsewhere on this post, a collapsed wall. Getting tricky here. Thin wall, with some shrapnel damage (top right), and roof damaged, but like because the wall crashed down under it, not because roof is hit on the top; --but also not excluded that we do not see where it was hit, as it is gone now. --Resup (talk) 10:07, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

If there were planes in the area, that, with very high probability, should be known to Russian and US militaries, so if that's known why to play this hid and seek with some social media photos? Russian strike, in particular, does not seem to be likely as at this stage, they would be still obliged to coordinate with USA--Resup (talk) 10:24, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

Truck location likely negotiated long in advance and known to parties, and likely leaked to rebels. Hitting it intentionally does not seem very plausible. Provocation, knowing where they are too, is a possibility. --Resup (talk) 10:24, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

Background
Happened right after embarrassing 'error' by coalition in Deir ez Zor, furious accusations at the UN, and followed by lapse of ceasefire at 7 p.m. Broader background, recently concluded Kerry -Lavrov talks (said to be opposed by parts of US government, so many hours break was required by Kerry to negotiate with Washington), and followed by ceasefire near collapse on the ground. Russia accusing USA of not separating moderate and radical opposition and not reciprocating steps to demilitarize agreed areas, etc. Further, approaching UN session, likely last for this US administration, and elections in USA. With ceasefire collapsing, blame games to start. --Resup (talk) 08:50, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

Rebel motives?
The attack has all the hallmarks of a Nusra / StateDept false flag attack. There in no proof that any airplanes were involved. This could as well have been a Hell Cannon or a GRADs. The rebel have every motive to attack the convoy. Why should "Syrian Christians" have aid, when they have just refused the UN aid convoys to enter east Aleppo? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:50, 20 September 2016 (UTC)
 * The aid sent by the Syrian government via Red Crescent was meant for government supporters in besieged areas and minorites. (The White Helmets guy on video says "Syrian Chrisians".)
 * The convoy entered rebel held areas during the ceasefire. It was attacked half an hour after the ceasefire ended and the Syrian and Russian air forces resumed airstrikes.
 * Rebels and their civilian supporters have blocked UN aid from reaching east Aleppo.
 * Rebels have said they will end cooperation with UN aid agencies because the UN "supports the regime".
 * During the ceasefire the rebels merged their command structures. All may now be commanded by ex-Nusra.