Talk:UAE in the Yemen conflict

Should I connect here the international alliances in the Libyan and Yemen conflicts? It seems for example that the Russians would be prepared to acommodate UAE backed STC, as they and the UAE are both opposed to Muslim Brotherhood elements (backed by Turkey) in both conflicts. I don't think Russia will take much of a stance on Yemen as has enough difficulty looking to maintain relations with Saudi, Turkey, UAE, Israel and Iran.


 * I am not sure anybody has a clear-cut answer why Russia is in Syria. As a work hypothesis I adopt Strelkov's, that there was a request from Obama for Russia to get involved against IS (presumably at a time when Obama was reluctant to engage IS on his own, while Russia was hoping for a deal sorting out Ukrainian conflict + recognition of Crimea joining Russia). In any case, it is a fact that subsequently Russia deployed forces on the side of Assad, with declared purpose of fighting IS, and no Russia-USA deal (on pretty much anything) ever materialized, and became pretty much unthinkable with all the "Russia's interference in elections" saga. Subsequent involvement on the ground was mostly by PMC pursuing a mix of commercial and other interests, like trying to control oil installations, + sometimes using manpower, some from Donbass, to capture places, like Palmyra. Libya's involvement is mostly by PMC, and is similar to Syria (oil + tasks of opportunity) . I very much doubt that Russia is interested in getting involved in trouble spots per se, or have resources to do so. It is not really about ideological alliances, it is more like a mix of commerce and opportunity. Radical nationalists like Kvachkov would say that  it's a commercial venture under cover of state interests, not state interests under cover of commerce ( I don't agree with Kvachkov on most issues, but here, it may be of some degree of truth).


 * As for Yemen, I do not really know or understand the conflict, but it's pretty widespread view that this has to do with proxy war between Iran, Saudis + allies (and maybe somebody else for the mix). Maybe with local agenda mixed up with external actors exploiting those, as is often the case. It may be good to understand all this better. But on practical side, I do not see much chance to get somebody involved, for the purpose of sorting it out. In Russia, likely it will be seen as getting into a conflict between Iran and Saudis, having Iran as an ally in Syria + a neighbor, and Saudis controlling one of the most important export market , the oil prices. They may get involved by sending more weapons in, to either side, and sending advisors if somebody pays for it; but I do not see them getting involved for the sake of backing up one side, or for the sake of sorting it out (unfortunately). There is huge mess with Ukraine, economy, several external conflicts on top, and there is likely no capacity (or expectation of outweighting benefits) for more involvement  --Resup (talk) 12:07, 16 September 2020 (UTC)


 * I guess had in mind UAE and Turkey clashing in both Yemen and Libya,as well as the transfers of mercenaries fighting in Syria, Libya and Yemen. But there isn't much coverage here on Libya recently,


 * As for what's driving/prolonging Yemen, the control of Bab al Mandeb is key for players like US, UK, Israel and France and their commercial interests, they can't stand not to have a client regime there. The Saudi's taking the blame is quite convenient. But who is keeping the House of Saud propped up after all? - not the Saudi populace.
 * Iran has provided some support to the Houthi's, but I don't think they were really there driving things at the outset. --Diagonal (talk) 12:53, 16 September 2020 (UTC)