Talk:Mariupol market shelling

NAF advances to Mariupol
Does anybody have a clue what's going on, any curious chatter etc? I do not read/hear anything definite, just some unclear noise. --Resup (talk) 12:08, 9 October 2014 (UTC)
 * Seems to be under Right Sector control, so no protests going on. They had volunteers digng anti-tank ditches some tim ago, but I've not heard fresh news about this for a while. OSCE a few weeks ago mentioned this, and the fact that they could only get about 50 volunteers for the job. Also from OSCE reports, there are checkpoints on every road or track leading to Mariupol (have seen up to #14 mentioned). Oct. 1 they commented most checkpoints are closed to civilian traffic (but said nothing about what traffic DOES get through).
 * "The SMM[monitoring mission] in Mariupol (115km south of Donetsk) met with two representatives of “Youth Union”, a NGO staffed with volunteers. Since 21 August 2014, with funding from the “Rinat Akhmetov Foundation”, the NGO is operating a large logistical centre at the Azovskiy market, from which, according to the interlocutor, some 60 to 80 tons of humanitarian assistance are distributed daily to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions." Have never seen corresponding arrivals of aid mentioned; assume it is not going to the "rebel" areas.
 * On October 5 "Ukrainian checkpoint commanders at various locations to the north and north-east of Mariupol (113 km south of Donetsk city) told the SMM of shelling directed at the checkpoints the previous evening. The SMM – whilst at the checkpoints – neither observed nor heard shelling, nor saw any indication that shelling may have recently taken place."
 * Oct. 6 they reported a doubling of traffic volume from Donetsk into Mariupol in the last 24 hours. without specifying what type of traffic and what actual numbers. KatKan (talk) 12:44, 9 October 2014 (UTC)


 * Tymchuk says 2 columns entering Novoazovsk, about 10 vehicles each, covered (curtain side) trucks, fuel tankers etc,he hints from border area, facing in direction of Mariupol. OSCE reports unusually heavy civilian traffic into Mariupol, Ukie check points say it's Donetsk people going to get pensions and buy food. Nearby villages doing protests, telling check points to move so the villages don't get shelled, they refuse to sign a petition being collected by a Ukie woman. Tweet says told by phone Mariupol hospital seen 200 rape victims. Zakharchenko said they're taking back all their territory. All this to me adds up to, any moment now they might try to take Mariupol, with help of "pensioner shoppers" who stayed in to organise ??? The place is way overdue for being rescued from the Right Sector. And this time no way they can blame any atrocities on anyone else.  funny how checkpoints get shelled but just missed, Greek funeral procession gets hit spot on. They're using spotters with radio and trying to blame the rebels. No moon the next few nights.KatKan (talk) 14:02, 19 October 2014 (UTC)
 * Don't know. But with no breakthrough on the diplomatic front with acceptable consequences on the ground, for as long as it stays that way, something else may happen. --Resup (talk) 15:00, 19 October 2014 (UTC)
 * If I, sitting in Australia, can get a whiff of what's happening in the Ukie "liberated" territories, the guys up close would really know. They are not going to give up or give in and let 3/4 of their people be wiped out, painfully. Every death may not turn people pro-Russian, but will certainly turn many anti-Kiev. Look at this advice from "partisan" leader in Kharkiv. "Our job is to wait for the main forces of the Resistance". KatKan (talk) 20:07, 19 October 2014 (UTC)

Novorossia reports itself standing on the outskirts of Mariupol, seeing the city and not seeing much of a garrison. Seems to be a deadlocked situation, negotiating this with Kiev is close to impossible especially on this issue; they perhaps can just take it, but it kind of feels wrong and they may not looking forward to have all those barking politico dogs another time. So what are they going to do, just sit there and wait for Maidan number 3 (or a Pinochet second coming?). Neither of those appears to be a particularly attractive option. --Resup (talk) 06:56, 4 November 2014 (UTC)

BBC reports that Poroshenko ordered reinforcements to main cities, including Mariuopol. --Resup (talk) 21:50, 4 November 2014 (UTC)

UAF shells villages using "Grad" and "Uragan" (+shown on video )--Resup (talk) 23:07, 4 November 2014 (UTC)

From Cassad @ 21:06 comment and map: Near Mariupol, opolchenie control Lebedinskoe, and try to advance on Vinogradnoe. --Resup (talk) 03:32, 20 January 2015 (UTC)

Update on rusvesna. Entitled "Liberation of Mariupol started. Ukrainian Army is in retreat". A photo is provided. Ukrainian source, civilian casualties reported. MSM carry news on that (CNN) --but I do not see reports on Gorlovka or accurate reporting on Donetsk. Cassad: Grads of the junta (Azov/UAF) were fired from the Old Crimea area (according to another version, from the Airport of Mariupol. As a result, smoke from fires covered the outskirts of the city. Locals say that that was under-shot by UAF. Simultaneously, opolchenie is storming junta positions in the area of Vinogradnoe.   --Resup (talk) 09:58, 24 January 2015 (UTC)
 * The (unconfirmed) story now appears to be that opolchenie was lead to believe there was a position of UAF at the outskirts of the city (another report say Tymchuk spread rumors of tank attack imminent from that area, using social networks). However pro-Kiev forces made preparations (such as turned off water) and left 1/2 hour before the area was hit by shells. A caller to Lifenews correspondent is telling this story. --Resup (talk) 15:42, 24 January 2015 (UTC)

Rusvesna: "DPR Army is on the outskirts of Mariupol". --Resup (talk) 14:40, 24 January 2015 (UTC)

Actual positions of opolchenie appear uncertain/disputed, and some reports could be inaccurately given at a time of battles on several directions. There was less activity in Mariupol direction than reported at the time. War correspondents Stepashin and Kots have visited the area, and report that Ukrainian positions are at Hnutove and Shyrokine map, opolchenie is further east. --Resup (talk) 02:33, 29 January 2015 (UTC)

Mariupol Encircled?
From a pro-DNR video mapping rockets from the north, what he thinks is the situation map at the time of the January 24 attacks. I don't know. But it's interesting in the context below of east, south, and probably north-origin rocket fire all being involved. By this, that corresponds with each and every direction Opolchenie reportedly have the place surrounded. The one direction that can cleanly blame Kiev - West - has been alleged but seems elusive.

So ... this will make a three fronts attack by Donetsk forces seem obvious to some. But of course, in each direction, there is probably enough mixed-presence to implicate either side, depending. And there's the issue of motives and the psychology of such an attack. Two major points to consider:

1) The SBU's alleged spotter cites firing by rebels from the south, suggesting Kiev thinks they're there. He suggests the killing of civilians was accidental, meaning to hit a checkpoint. Did the units coordinating in this, firing separately from the east and north make the same mistakes, or did they hit checkpoints? I bet they did, and all three directions targeted innocents and show a clear terrorist intent to the whole thing: destroying infrastructure, disrupting life, killing innocents, sowing panic, etc.

2) If Mariupol is surrounded, it might be ripe to fall to Donetsk forces, and be lost to Kiev's, who stands to benefit from terrorism like that? Do the locals hate DNR and fear occupation by them as Kiev claims? If so, maybe the people need to be chased off first. Did Kiev's forces have to massacre their way in against the DNR-embracing will of the locals? Yes, as I recall it seeming. Those about to claim a prize, vs. those faced with losing it, who only achieved it by force to begin with. The latter might try to prevent the fall of Mariupol by mobilizing the people behind claims that their would-be liberators are total terrorists (a claim they apparently didn't believe before). --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:56, 28 January 2015 (UTC)

Provocation?
Military intelligence of DPR reports: "According to the latest data, in Mariupol a second for the day provocation of  Ukrainian security forces is planned in micro-district Vostochnyi ( Восточный, =East) and other possible areas of our strike: at the moment the opponent starts to pull to the area of the checkpoint infantry detachments; from their bases at  ТЦ "Метро" (= tele (?) center  Metro ) enemy continues to  load into buses fully armed and equipped personnel  in the form of the armed forces of Novorossia with chevrons of DPR . The objective  of those dressed up punishers includes  destruction of the civilian population, infrastructure and communications. This task is given to  the 9 territorial battalion Vinnytsia and SBU. Please residents do not to your homes and remain calm. In the morning the Ukrainian side has already delivered an artillery strike using MLRS (=Grads) from Old Crimea. At 19:45, near the checkpoint "Vostochnyi"  fire was opened with small arms, civilians must immediately go into the building. " Cassad at 20-15--Resup (talk) 18:02, 24 January 2015 (UTC)

SBU claimed radio intercept of opolchenie discussing shelling checkpoint, knowing that there are nine- story buildings of flats not too far (1.5 km away). Recording sounds fake, studio quality, calm voices seem acted, very few details actually given (like what was actually going on, who are they, and how they learned that something went wrong). One caller has callname "Terrorist",-- very conveniently. --Resup (talk) 19:06, 24 January 2015 (UTC)

Zakahrchenko says they do not intend to storm Mariupol, as they "are not animals, as those in Kiev". But "after Kiev tried to blame opolchenie for their own Grad hit made in error" (from Berdianskoe  Бердянское), he   ordered  to suppress Ukrainian artillery positions to the East from Mariupol.
 * So, disagreement on where this was coming from, Berdianskoe will be to the West, Novoazovsk East, from the market square hit on the Eastern outskirt of the city map. Collateral damage happen even with precision weapons, this is not impossible--yet Porosheko again screams a lot about terrorism. Seem to notice civilian deaths only when its convenient to his cause.  --Resup (talk) 20:17, 24 January 2015 (UTC)

OSCE says those are Grads and Uragans from NE and  East, from opolchenie-controlled area. They say there visited the location. They note that Ukrainian checkpoint number 14 is just several hundred meters away--Resup (talk) 21:07, 24 January 2015 (UTC)

What Zakharchenko Said
This deserves a section worth linking to. To hear the Western news reports, the DNR leader openly admitted his guys opened a military bombardment offensive that day, and it was exactly the market shelling, and he was (blindly?) celebrating what (he thought was) some clean opening act, to (idiot, out-of-the-loop) cheering crowds. Doesn't sound right to me. In fact, he explicitly denied being behind that attack, although his easy replacement theory fails, IMO, and I wonder where he got that from, and talk of being able to suppress stuff to the east, where the firing did come from ... There are issues both ways worth considering. I'm not up to speed enough to start assembling now, but I made the spot. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:31, 18 February 2015 (UTC)
 * Zakharchenko on the previous day, 23 January repeated long-held position that DPR would like to be in the borders of all Donetsk administrative region : "We will advance to the borders of Donetsk region; but if I will see a threat from elsewhere, we will work to eliminate such threat". Reports on (market) shelling, start of offensive, smoke seen over Mariupol were coming from Ukrainian side and blogs/social media. (Pro-opolchenie blogs reported that a checkpoint at Vinogradnoe was shelled; that was unidentified opolchenie member; so unclear whether accurate, and in any case this is one of suspected origins of market attack, not the residential area).   DPR rejected that they were behind and called it a provocation early on: "This is blatant disinformation and lie. Opolchenie did not open fire in Mariupol  direction, and especially not on residential areas"    (Quoting DPR MOD) . I do not recall any other sort of official comment from DPR. I note that official DPR site dnr.today was hijacked by Ukraine (do not remember exact day, it was at about the same time; the site does not show up now; I think it was showing anti-Novorossia crap at some point with Ukraine bragging about this). So than official stuff may be on russvesna; do not remember seeing it--they quoted Ukrainian media on the day. Will double-check later. --Resup (talk) 15:55, 18 February 2015 (UTC)
 * Reported on 23 January, including BBC: "We did not attack Mariupol, because before taking Maiupol, we need to take Slaviansk. The reason is water. In Mariupol, water is delivered by Ukraine through our territories, and gets to us as well, while 90% of water in Donetsk region is not suitable for drinking" -Zakarchenko. --Resup (talk) 16:25, 18 February 2015 (UTC)

Several directions?
East seems to be the main firing origin, from credible sources and some verified by us. But at least three need discussed. South seems to be the most interesting/controversial, so we cover it first, in detail. Below that, east, northeast, and west (reported, not verified). --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:35, 17 February 2015 (UTC)

South
Two dashboard videos emerged. --Resup (talk) 21:21, 24 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Dashboard video geolocated . Direction of blasts, those with direction of plume seen well, appears to be towards the single building, going left to right, and coming from behind on dashboard video. I presume for now that video is from the opposite side of 9 of May street;  or parking lot further West along the road works even better.  If it is somehow in a backyard on the same side. would be different, but I don't think we will get such a view from there as on the video. Viewpoint is shown on yandex map--so that would be fired from the  West or NW.   That is  based on video and geolocation (supplied by commenter). I wonder why OSCE says East--Should have supplied photos.    --Resup (talk) 22:04, 24 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Second video is now gone (copyright, so named holder should have it) But from the top one, I agree the fireballs show a left-to-right momentum, and maybe a bit away from the camera, so from like an 8:00 position, relative to the blasts, maybe about 9:00 or hard left from the camera. Trying to make that a direction, I got confused. Not sure that location is right, or just not seeing it yet. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:15, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * I don't think that location/direction is right. The vacant tower is seen from a different side (if it's even that one) Might be filmed from here - with that same white van - looking west. Building on the right, awning and other details, match, and it would explain general building lineup better. But that means the hits seem to come from the ... south? (and maybe slightly east) Empty fields for about 2-3 km south of there, FWIW. But can this be right? The sunlight (diffuse but there) doesn't seem right for morning facing west. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:26, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * 3 or 4 masts seem to be there, buildings plausible, big parking lot may be hidden by the car in front. Not sure about the sun; we are not sure about time of this attack, and light may be tricky for a webcam inside a car and all behind a tall building --Resup (talk) 17:02, 27 January 2015 (UTC)

Holy crap, this is interesting. I looked a little closer at that view and decided it probably is the correct one. The camera faces west. If it's really momentum and not a ridiculous wind causing that roll, these shots were fired either from the fields just south, the little populated strip south of that, or the sea. Before we get too excited about that, someone should check into the wind. A strong one might come off the sea, which will be left-to-right in this view (smoke clouds seem to testify against this, however...). Because, either way, we're facing west, as the pictures below show. First, the view; The face seen of the empty tower matches, as well as the low building to the left, and the angles of the big apartment block that's hit, and all foreground clues. Beyond the empty tower, on its left, will be the market area. I count at least nine impacts, Most seem to be in the unclear distance, probably around the market. These are numbered in the pic below that - only #3 is an "impact here" label, the rest crowded at the edge, unknown locale, but along about that line of sight from the camera. #8 and 9 come almost instantaneous, with #9 seeming to hit much nearer than most, with flying, glowing fragments making it onto this street or further. That's a clue: an impact from the east is not likely to send this much backwards against its momentum, (unless maybe the momentum is very minimal, meaning it came almost straight down). Actually several instances of debris getting close to the camera. We also never see the near sides of buildings hit, tending be on or behind, silhouetting the buildings - unlikely to be so common if these rockets were flying west along anything like the camera's line of sight. The opposite - a west origin - seems more likely, but mainly I think it's from the right/south, and maybe a bit east, depending how much of that is the wind. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:20, 28 January 2015 (UTC)



Wind: world weather online says all day Jan. 24, winds 21-25 mph from the east. In the video, little movement left or right is noticeable - the plumes will be drifting away from the camera, by this. Any wind effect on the fireball will be in the "away from the camera" part, not from the left. Therefore: --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:05, 28 January 2015 (UTC)
 * The red dot at right is impact 3 as labeled, the apartment building. I missed a few impacts, including one behind (east of) the camera, and one before #1 as labeled.--Caustic Logic (talk) 13:02, 28 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Some heavy and fast moving debris can be seen from another explosion on the ground, all moving in the same direction; that will not be much affected by wind --Resup (talk) 16:30, 28 January 2015 (UTC)


 * Wasn't Vinogradne supposed to mean east? This is south, as the picture shows. All the eastern firing must be from somewhere else, northeast of there. What below belongs under this section? --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:08, 28 January 2015 (UTC)

Small but important update: looking at the map, and hearing talk of the 9-story apartment block that was hit ... I think it wasn't, and deciding so is a visual illusion. Consider the view above. It seems to be the building 19A that's hit, 9 stories. But behind it on the same line is the taller building, 17. Seems to match the vacant tower we see, so 12 stories? Is it vacant too? Anyway, the fact that it's all-but invisible proves that its roofline might be a factor. And I think that little roof sub-structure the blast is behind is that building's roof, and it's the one hit. Still, from the south. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:57, 8 February 2015 (UTC)
 * Note: it was the "terrorists" on SBU audio not worried about a 9-story building. Not clearly connected, any mix-up has no relevance then (that I know of). But I notice IPHR report and HRW fail to indicate either place as an impact spot. But we can see on video one was, or some huge blast on a very tall building further away ... so, it's being ignored? Sounds interesting. --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:42, 17 February 2015 (UTC)

Vinogradne (south) Sharii figured out how to fix sound on the video. So, the sound came, telling us it was definitely Ukrainian side shelling, and that they now fire from the direction of Vinogradnaya. Puzzling. I remember reports somewhere saying that RS placed Grads at the plant and port side; that may be it. --Resup (talk) 23:40, 24 January 2015 (UTC)
 * This I didn't get at all. He boosted sound, someone's talking, we see no impacts, this means what? (sorry?) --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:15, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * I do not know how come this sound came back again, or what to make of this, but the man talking on the audio is telling us that fire came from Vinogradnoe --Resup (talk) 14:25, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Okay, so it was a verbal cue, once spoken, squelched to near-zero volume in attempted cover-up, and then retrieved? This can be done, and also I think avoided, depending. If so, the unknowns are: if it was true, if it was meant to be retrieved, etc. Could be a false lead, or a real one. He couldn't probably say just where the fire came from, but might have heard the stories of Grads based at Vinogradnoe and deduced it. For example. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:58, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * SBU witness (on SBU video of his testimony), on his 'Novorossian  boss' question how the 8 am attack aftermath looks like, said that it looked like coming from Vinogradnoe. Not a reliable witness, but what he says, if accurate, would imply Ukraine. Somebody said there were 3 attacks at 3 different times
 * So indeed. For the record Interpreter Mag has a translation up that has him saying "I came to see what had happened there and I called Pepel and said he had missed by one kilometer. He asked, "From where is the shooting visible?" And I said, "From the direction of Vinogradsky." This might mean Kiev wants us to think that. It doesn't seem to make sense as an actual conversation; the shooting coordinator asks there on-the-scene guy where the shooting is visible, and the answer is where the shooting came from and he says "Well, alright," and hangs up when he hears people were killed? I'm guessing lines will point there (two trajectories point about that way, and I'm likely wrong about south). But just where on the line remains open, and the efforts to point at Vinogradsky suggest it was somewhere else on the line. --Caustic Logic (talk) 16:09, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Hard to be sure as it's unreliable to begin with, but he maybe somebody they booked for some offence, talking to separatists say, and as a life-saver gave him an option of doing the video. Than there would be bits which are false, and some they did not figure out still may be true. For conversation to make sense, maybe opolchenie attack planned for the night in fact never came about, while the other side (or somebody anyway) hit the area in error. He than thought it is opolchenie and "calls back" to say "what happened" (or they knew there was fire from there; or they were countering leaked audio pointing there) --Resup (talk) 17:02, 27 January 2015 (UTC)

Human Rights Watch Excludes South
This sounded interesting, then not so much, then maybe, now definitely. Human Rights Watch did a visit investigation, covered in a report, Feb. 3 Ukraine: Rising Civilian Death Toll - Unlawful Unguided Rocket Attacks on Populated Areas (I suggest, since we're halfway there, that we have a page and talk page for each of the 4 incidents they cover here - the more obvious ones are missing, I think for that reason, and I agree obviousness merits less scrutiny) Anyway,:''On January 24, unguided rockets, probably launched from rebel-controlled territory, killed 30 civilians and 1 solider in Mariupol and wounded more than 90 civilians. One rocket struck the courtyard of a school.'' They got there "about six hours after the attack" and examined a 1.2 kilometer stretch of Kyivska Street, with "31 rocket impacts on the ground and on buildings."

They include [http://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/media/images/photographs/ukraine0215_presser_map-01_0.jpg this detailed graphic, with lots of arrows pointing west, underlining their general reading that " the rockets were fired from separatist-controlled territory to the east."
 * The impacted buildings had all been hit on the exterior wall facing due east, or in the case of one building, on the wall facing northeast. All the craters in the ground Human Rights Watch examined indicated that the rockets had come from the east, and in three cases the tail of rocket remnants stuck in the ground pointed east.

''The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) reported that some rockets also struck from the northeast. Some impacts on buildings examined by Human Rights Watch could have come from either the east or northeast. '' Now, I'll suppose the bulk of firing was from the east, and the other directions are interesting outliers. There's one downplayed mention of a northeast impact. They didn't look at the courtyard impact pointing northeast. Three dots on the upper left suggest they were just outside that area.

And they don't mention the south direction at all. Their graphic shows none of the foreground hits in the video above, including the 9-story apartment building hit on its top. These hits appear southerly, but didn't get looked at. Why? Is south embarrassing after all? The SBU and their pressed witness claim rebels who were already there did the worst of the firing from there. But both sides think/thought Vinogradne implicates the other. But they don't make sure now that HRW documented that. Why?
 * Human Rights Watch did not examine reported impacts along Olimpiiska, a parallel street, due to the risk of renewed shelling.

That's the north-south avenue along the left edge, not the angled May 9 ave. to the NE. But maybe this too was too dangerous ... a decision of their own, or of the people helping them get around? Took nine days before the Volnovakha site was safe enough to examine, someone decided. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:12, 4 February 2015 (UTC)


 * Here's how quick I am even this late: multiple directions - even 2, let alone 3 - is problematic for the case HRW makes. They point out a checkpoint to the north is nearest of all to the later PM attacks, suggesting the aim got better and that was always the target. This suggests a single group, to the east (when Grads are more accurate in direction than range, I hear) pounding targets well south ... on accident. And as we've discussed here, it's not very plausible that people shooting from 2 or even 3 different places would all make the same mistakes. It clarifies that whoever did it wanted people to know they, or whoever's getting blamed, are terrorists, who are very bad and shouldn't be allowed to capture Mariupol. So ... HRW decides there was firing from only about 1.25 directions. Problem solved-ish! Or is that a coincidence? --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:21, 4 February 2015 (UTC)

IPHR and Southeast
Report of International Partnership for Human Rights investigation, PDF, February 2015 Finds it most likely a deliberate targeting of civilians, by DPR militants, who broke specified laws even if it was accidental. And gives specifics on direction, and a Yandex map of most impacts. This decides the attack was launched from several Grad launchers (no other rockets used, they say), based in one area to the E-NE, compass heading 65 to 80 degrees, or area of Dzherzhynske–Kachkarske-Rosy Luxemburg villages. Sounds to me like two or more distinct non-south directions we've been seeing, melted into one. They say all impacts but two came from this direction, even site 41, which seems to point more like 45 degrees NE. They don't seem to think our foreground fireball hit happened, or not at either of the two near buildings I've thought it was at. But the exceptions they do map are interesting: Site 87 being at the south edge of things, if they're right on this, both angles seem to converge about 3km out, on about this spot on Wikimapia - translated "Current. Tractor brigade." Whose? Why point there? Our other south direction seemed due south, but maybe those too were hits from the tractor brigade area, with the breeze playing less of a role than I thought? Or is this four distinct directions now? Hm... --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:08, 16 February 2015 (UTC) and Caustic Logic (talk) 04:58, 17 February 2015 (UTC)
 * site 24, hit from SE azimuth 100-120
 * site 87, from E az 95-100.
 * Here Ток (russ, -agricultural meaning) = area with machines and equipment for threshing grain; Тракторная-бригада =Tractor Brigade --Resup (talk) 13:46, 16 February 2015 (UTC)
 * Just from the area I presumed it was a farm machinery complex. But brigade is in the name. Hm. --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:58, 17 February 2015 (UTC)


 * And I guess it's a bit much to say two lines converge there when one "line" is 20 degrees wide. But, they almost have to converge somewhere, either there, or fields 400 m west, or fields up to 2 km east, nearly to Lebedynske. Unless the lines don't comverge and there are two firing positions that way. Or unless these are inaccurate readings. Could be. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:38, 17 February 2015 (UTC)
 * Graphic added above right. The two implied ranges in red and green, areas they share boxed in blue. At one end, they converge on the tractor brigade place and surrounding fields. On the other end here, the top red line stops being included, and the bounds follow the green line. 100 degrees being equal to 100, the lines then fail to converge, so it becomes a wide band running out to Grad range, 15 km or so. --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:58, 17 February 2015 (UTC)

East
According to yurasumy, Azov Battalion controls Sopino, which is next to Vinogradnoe.
 * (Control of Sopino seems to be disputed (Cassad considers it Novorossian), but there is still Ukrainian-controlled area to the East from Mariupol). Ukrainian map places front line at Shirokine, to the East from Sopino and Berdianskoe, making Sopino Ukrainian (there is another Berdiaskoe, to the west from Mariupol).  --Resup (talk) 21:22, 25 January 2015 (UTC)

It appears that there was Grad fire from the east (yurasmy mentions this), but there was also other fire, not all directions clear, and not all of them look immedeately like Grad (video). (Football field crater, if not fiddled with, would be Grad coming from the East; but it can be Ukrainian. Note that crater is not at 45 degrees as it would be for a shot from near-the-range distance; either more shallow or more vertical angle suggests a closer distance). This man account from a Ukrainian source, if accurate, is also consistent with Ukraine   firing East, for example from Sopino or other area of UAF control. He says it was Novoazovsk, but it would be hard to tell the difference. (Especially since according to his account he had a close call with explosions nearby, so would be pretty stressed. The man is clearly pro-Kiev regardless of the incident) --Resup (talk) 07:59, 25 January 2015 (UTC)
 * football field crater video, interesting. Might have come about on the camera's line of view, with some kind of twist in the impact, or a bit from the right as it mostly appears. strange damage. Besides the radial pattern, there seem to be extra horizontal marks preceding it. Might be a clue. Don't know how to measure it, but I agree the impact seems steep, and suggests a relatively close origin (how far, dunno, but an expert could say, or say nothing). --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:15, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Football field, hit from close to due east, maybe a bit southeast. If false flaggers are doing this stuff... they understand to do it in the right direction, and hope no one remembers how many places there are in any given direction.--Caustic Logic (talk) 13:43, 27 January 2015 (UTC)

West (Claimed)
There is said to be some verbal evidence for fire coming from the West, but details have not emerged yet. Visual discussed below is consistent with Grad coming from the East. Distance and angle of entry are related, but cannot be determined since breaking rings may be used on missile resulting in 3 possibilities for the distance (and the angle is unclear from what we see as well). --Resup (talk) 16:30, 28 January 2015 (UTC)

First, one claim of western fire was the left-right roll of impact fireballs seen looking north at at two buildings. But that was wrong; the view is of the same buildings, but from the east, looking west. So that's covered above under .--Caustic Logic (talk) 12:27, 8 February 2015 (UTC)

Steshin and Kots article. Their claim is that shell crater in the school  yard (shown in the article) was fired from the West. --Resup (talk) 18:56, 25 January 2015 (UTC)
 * map The wall to the west has broken glass; eastern side of crater has damage which may be back-blow (if this is Grad, it gets stuck at an angle and lower side explosion damage pavement; for shallow lodging Grad, little excavation in the front, but blast wave goes mostly to the front). In case this is Grad (some doubt as shallow crater and little shrapnel or soot seen, and no Grad pipes around), I'd say Grad coming from the East.
 * Little shrapnel damage- some towards SW and NW, on S and W walls, and very little on western side, suggesting low quality of Grad used; angle appears to be steep (also tricky to hit center of schoolyard otherwise); this suggest firing from not afar; all of that supports Ukrainian Grad coming from the east as more likely). --Resup (talk) 23:01, 25 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Ah! I just picked that spot maybe for the video scene, not seeing a car, but that spot shows the door and damage are the same, car just off-frame. Yandex street view, same color trim as seen inside anyway. App. same building shown from outside just before. Hard to set directions from inside. Blue door maybe connects to main doors, meaning south? That would mean we agree on the directions and that it came from the east. Others seem to agree, misread, and say it came from the west. So well agree on the directions. But the pavement is not a crater, as we know, so you can't read it like one. Other damage, I'll presume you're right, as it should all line up. Clean work so far. :) --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:37, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * In case two verbal explanations isn't enough:

--Caustic Logic (talk) 14:48, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Windows blown out in all directions, not just west. Otherwise, the point should be pretty clear there. Those impressive grooves in pavement that wasn't pierced point clearly, back to where the thing came from. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:30, 30 January 2015 (UTC)


 * Staryi Krym, northwest. DPR people claimed firing was from Старый Крым which would be government-held, and is here on Wikimapia, northwest of the attacked area.RIA Novosti, Jan 26, Russian, wayback machine archive. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:30, 16 February 2015 (UTC)

North/Northeast
Rusvesna, has an audio of a caller linked. The caller, resident of Mariupol for 40 years, tells that in his opinion after seeing video material on internet he thinks fire came from the North and North East. A family friend of his had balcony on the Northern side of the building teared off by Grad missile. He tells that in the northern direction there is the village Sartana. Behind it, on the so-called tarmac, there are UAF Grads, all Mariupol knows this , and from there  shots were fired. Does not believe UAF account giving direction in distance, all determined within 2 hours. The caller is not happy with Azov battallion in the city as they create many problems --Resup (talk) 16:18, 25 January 2015 (UTC)

Another video shows different craters; fire came from NNE and very likely Ukrainian. Audio is in Russian, but graphics makes the claim quite clear. Presenter refers to military maps to claim that opolchenie was attacking nearby and could be the target. So that would be accidental shelling by Ukraine. --Resup (talk) 02:03, 26 January 2015 (UTC)
 * This sounds interesting. Ready for a third direction, but maybe not 'til tomorrow. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:25, 28 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Damn I'm good. Again, a failed geo-location. If looking northeast across that building, there's another building east of it that isn't there on the map. No major street to the west of it either. Right type of building. Is there another? Yes, not far east of there, with better matches all around. Building orientation is the same, basic view and points should be about the same, I think. (if they got that right, we'll see) --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:51, 28 January 2015 (UTC)


 * Scene 1, placed right - still can't see how it hits. The smoke rolls to the west with winds. Can't vouch for this one.
 * scene 2, the park: appears to come from N-NE like they say.
 * scene 3, sidewalk hit: Not sure how he read this, graphics were confusing. But it's clearly from the east, if that's a north-south street like identified.
 * So, just one hit out of three that I can agree with so far.--Caustic Logic (talk) 00:35, 29 January 2015 (UTC)

HRW reports "The impacted buildings had all been hit on the exterior wall facing due east, or in the case of one building, on the wall facing northeast." Their map of inspected locations shows they did not look at the spot for scene 2, above, even theough they looked at three spots right next to there. Still, they saw one northeast impact, so that plus scene 2 means at least two. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:39, 8 February 2015 (UTC)

Olympiyska 167
This 'Scene 2' is important - centered on Wikimapia - just short of hitting that wing of the block it came in perpendicular to. closest car, shrapnel damage photo --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:03, 16 February 2015 (UTC)

That building is Olympiyska 167, graphic showing it and neighboring Olympska 161, 163, and 165. Videos: --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:48, 17 February 2015 (UTC)
 * 1) main scene in its own video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L96OWa6AP5w
 * 2) Hromadske, great resolution https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fphX1kjnBpk
 * 3) "Tape news" Fumbling with the heading from 5:00 to end: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9eJpxboxwc#t=306

Damage: To the broad NE wall of O167, narrow W wall of O161, the car (mainly side, barely the back). To include that, it must have some serious degree of north origin. Hromadske video shows best how the pockmarks extend across inner wall a bit, slanting upward - not clear how far, but across the span between the two balconies, apparently. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:32, 17 February 2015 (UTC)

Direction Estimates:
 * As graphic shows, I call 35 degrees as roughly the best angle. 15, maybe. 45, maybe. 65, not really.
 * IPHR, implicitly: somewhere between 65 and 80 degrees.
 * Host of V1 notes rocket tube points one way, pavement damage points a slightly different way, and points like the pavement damage does - a bit north of perpendicular to this street, about 35 degrees. I agree. (the analysis video where this is scene 2 seems to read a more due north line I don't agree with)
 * Video 3 host doesn't seem to get a set reading he likes, but at the end I see the numbers 33, 35, and 39 rolling by.
 * Video 2 hosts: one points over the left side of O165, almost due north. Video description, translated, says impacts "point to the East (Novoazovsk) and northeast (Kominterna)." Another host w/modern 'compass' says "north and east, northeast" (single direction) - screen reading unclear. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:32, 17 February 2015 (UTC)

Several Attacks?
Russian wikipedia gives 3 attacks, 9:15 am, 13:00, and 17:06, giving Azov battalion as the source. The first two attacks said to hit residential area of Vostochnoe. --Resup (talk) 15:21, 27 January 2015 (UTC)

The few different attacks and the timeline of all this is quite interesting. I have at least two sources I want to lay out here, maybe there are others, that will flesh out the timeline and maybe present interesting things like discrepancies. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:23, 17 February 2015 (UTC)

OSCE Special Monitoring Mission spot report:
 * "At approximately 09:15hrs on 24 January, the SMM in government-controlled Mariupol heard at its location incoming massed Multi-Launch Rocket System (MLRS) attacks from a north-east direction, consisting of an extremely heavy barrage lasting 35 seconds." (Grad attack from NE they say)
 * "At 13:02hrs and 13:21hrs the SMM heard again incoming MLRS salvos lasting for eight seconds, from an easterly direction." (Urugans from the east)
 * Nothing later mentioned

IPHR report, PDF: International Partnership for Human Rights has these events listed:
 * Around 8 AM: A shelling attack to the north near Sartana took out power to the Vostochniy district. They went dark there, interesting.
 * At an unsure time, a checkpoint in Vynogradne - implicitly then government-held - was also shelled, causing a power outage there too.
 * Vostochniy itself was shelled around 9:20 am
 * 13:00 attack w/40 Grads - checkpoint hit, no injuries, according to Azov.
 * 15:00 warning issued of another attack, based on military intel, but none came.
 * Nothing else mentioned for the day

External Clues

 * Grad Distance Strelkov_info: long report from opolchenie. 2 types of breaking rings can be installed on a Grad missile, which means that 3 distances are possible, knowing angle of entry (thanks for that!)
 * Verbal evidence of launches south of Talakhovka, to the NE from the area hit. Also evidence for E or rather SE; shots fired from Vinogradnoe or Pionerskoe. Western shots suspected but no proof apart from verbal evidence. --Resup (talk) 05:32, 28 January 2015 (UTC)

Claims
Eduard Basurin, assistant head, MOD DPR. At about 2 pm on Saturday, UAF in error shelled  positions of  their own 18 battalion of 28 mechanized brigade at Vinogradnoe, considering it to be a DPR detachment. Shelling was from Berdyanskoie, on the western outskirts of Mariupol. Up to 15 UAF soldiers were killed. Due to incorrect fire correction, some of UAF Grads hit a residential area of Vostochnyi micro-district. --Resup (talk) 19:14, 25 January 2015 (UTC)

The SBU's Spotter
Military Studies, ‏@ArmedResearch tweets Jan. 25 "#Ukraine has accused a local #Mariupol police officer named Kirsanov of being a spotter for #NAF artillery." In contexy, it seems they say the targets weren't chosen at random, but well-selected to cause random civilian deaths, like terrorists might do. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:43, 26 January 2015 (UTC)
 * But the claim does not make sense, they do not operate like this, and even if they do, that civilian or another would make no difference, no spotter needed to hit a city, and there is no way to target particular individual by Grad, a carpet bombing weapon. --Resup (talk) 15:27, 26 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Here is the video anyway. When he saw saw UAF personnel or equipment, he used Google Earth at home to get the coordinates. Than sent it to "terrorist," -Ponomarenko, who he knew for 6 years, the commander of 1 Slaviansk company of NAF, or in his absence to "pepel" (ash) by SMS; that was going on for 6 months. Gave coordinates of checkpoint on Taganrogskoe " the day before yesterday ." (earlier, gave coordinates of Vinogradnoe and Pikuzovskaia Trassa=Motorway) "They were supposed to shell it at night, but it happened at  8 am". "Missed by 1 km". Told his bosses that fire missed and  there are many killed. They asked, where it appears to be coming? He said, Vinogradnoe.  His Novorossia contact "pepel" was "Russian officer" commanding a (rocket) artillery battalion. Well all that sounds fake to me (either he is working for SBU, or coerced to say all that. Very pointedly tells about  "Russian officer"   in the end;  will be caught if really doing this for 6 months using SMS). In any case even if everything he say is true, this is accidental miss. And clear anyway that cannot be anything but accidental.  --Resup (talk) 00:53, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Russian MOD respose: it's fake, reads from the list to his right; knows real names, call-names, citizenship, rank, unit, and equipment of his "bosses" which would be appropriate for resident intelligence officer, not fire correction guy; claims that fire came from Vinogradnoe which is where UAF checkpoint is, and which is 3 km to the South (role poorly learned implied; a little bit of twist here). --Resup (talk) 01:18, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Finally read it myself, and watched the video finally, and they make some good points. They call the video a fake or "as one may call it a 'self-disclosure session' – by the SBU." Cool. The list-reading thing is interesting but inconclusive. Having so much information on the Russian villains to hand over does not really line up. But the most interesting point is one I'm not sure yet what to make of - he points to both a rebel attack on, and from, the same place that some fire really might have come from, based on the video record.
 * “At 1:42 of his ‘confession’ video, Kirsanov said that he sent his contacts the coordinates of a stationary checkpoint of Ukrainian troops in Vinogradnoe village...At 2:22 of the clip, when answering the question: ‘From where did the fire come?’ Kirsanov said with confidence: ‘From the direction of Vinogradnoe.’ In other words, from the direction where the Ukrainian military checkpoint was stationed,” the statement said.--Caustic Logic (talk) 11:48, 18 February 2015 (UTC)

Casualties?
Latest Western reports say now 30 killed, 102 injured. Rocket attacks, said to be Grad, on homes and shops on Saturday morning. Police chief says “The nearest Ukrainian army checkpoint outside the city is about [3 miles] from the place, and the terrorists know well where it is, because they have already shot at it many times in the last three days.” Does have the hallmarks of terrorism, not mistake. Separatists announced a five-front offensive the day before - whoever wants to make that look bad is a potential suspect. LA Times, said 26 dead when I started reading)--Caustic Logic (talk) 02:26, 25 January 2015 (UTC)

Itar-Tass, Jan, 26 "The Ukrainian military’s shelling of the southeastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol is a provocation aimed at changing the format of talks on resolving the Donbass conflict, the chief negotiator of the self-proclaimed Donetsk people’s republic at the Minsk talks, Denis Pushilin said on Sunday." He calls the attack "another attempt to accuse militias and cast them in a negative light," which it did, and notes "today they call for turning the Minsk talks to a Geneva format and involve the United States there." The solution" “suppress the artillery positions of the enemy ... they understand only this language.” --Caustic Logic (talk) 02:31, 26 January 2015 (UTC)

Locations
Location we tried to geolocate, tall buildings hit by Grad, according to latest version described, is very close to Kiev Market place.

Kiev Market.
It appears to be a building to the West of what looks like  parking lot from above (map,view). It seems to be one of the two market places hit and where people actually died. I do not know where is yellow building from peo-Ukrainian witness video; there is a yellow building close by on Kiev street, but it is not the right one (wrong yellow building)--Resup (talk) 18:34, 27 January 2015 (UTC)

This pro-Kiev video seems to correctly say Grad was going 'left to right', (asphalt pieces  blown  mostly in that direction, and  pavement mark on the opposite side), this will be going West on Marshrutnaia street, from центр окон (tsentr Okon-Windows Center) to   эконом магазин (Econom Magazin--which he says Fast Food). So coming from the East and going to the West. But this is only one Grad, we seem to have barrage of Grads nearby going from a different (Southern) direction). So what's going on here? Something came first, and another as a cover-up? (Econom Magazin-Fast Food on the map) . Shallow angle again, suggesting it came from not that far--exact location provided in the video is propaganda. --Resup (talk) 19:20, 27 January 2015 (UTC)

Not difficult for Ukraine to do it, for example first accidental hit of this market from somewhere between Vinogradnoe and Primorskoe. Than another hit to cover-up, starting from Primorskoe, Sopino, or Berdiaevo   they control, moving on the road North couple of kilometers, --there are such roads in any of the three locations,--than firing at the same area. This particular Grad we see on video landed 50 m off the market and did not kill anybody at the market. Somebody in Econom/Fast Food could be hit. map --Resup (talk) 19:40, 27 January 2015 (UTC)

'Denis' Market
'Denis' Market. Reports say that this market was hit as well. --Resup (talk) 00:24, 28 January 2015 (UTC)

Videos and Commentary
Commander of the reconnaissance regiment Azov Sergey Korotkov is telling why Mariupol was shelled, posted 24 01 2015 by Grigory Grinvich.
 * 0:09 we see street name (Kievskaia?), and shrapnel pockmarks
 * and what's noteworthy is that over here we have "Left Sector" (i.e. opposite Right Sector, making it pro-Novorossian). Communiaki (derogatory from communists) received what they wanted.
 * 0:24 windows are broken
 * 0:30 "Russian World" (sarcasm)  Let's bring the Russian world to every home.
 * 0:42 (can you believe it --) they suggested to move artillery back 15 km ??? So that they could just arrive here and shoot
 * 0:55 "broken windows, shrapnel marks"
 * 1:00 lar'ki (=light structures used to sell some goods) . (We see windows center on Marshrutnaia street, discussed above)
 * 1:05 "We are now at a house on Nezhinskaia (?) street", where Grad hit (map of the area shown). This is not by accident that (it hit here? coming over some noise). Direct hit. Many hits over hear,cars are on fire, 20 people were killed, many wounded
 * 1:23 Here is the summary: anybody can check for oneself that this is not an accidental hit. There is no Ukrainian military here, and never have been. This area, as graffiti on some walls show, some fans of the Russian World live. Those who want the Russian World--see, here you got it.
 * 1:56 here there were never any Ukrainian military
 * (The video is interpreted as evidence of intentional shelling by Ukraine by the person who posted the video. This may be a bit too strong, but also quite clear that Azov battalion is not at all fond of civilians sympathizing opolchenie, and they are aware that such civilians live in the area.) --Resup (talk) 02:30, 28 January 2015 (UTC)