Talk:Alleged Russian strike on Sarmin hospital


 * ''See also Talk:Alleged Chemical Attack, March 16, 2015

Location

 * ''The same field clinic also plays a central part on the alleged Chemical Attack, March 16, 2015

Location of attack in Sarmin on October 20, 2015 as seen on video: north center of the city, on the main road, left from center as labeled in the graphic above (revisions as needed). A fuller view of the scene, inset at right, helps verify this location (note the minaret visible to the east, etc.).

The field clinic (matched with other videos of this famous but previously un-placed facility) is highlighted above, compared to the four destroyed buildings in two strikes. These were at the south end of the abandoned school across the street (see images below at right, and compare). The video is filmed after the first strike and at the moment of the second one, about 10-15 meters away from the cameraman.

Video Analysis
The distinctive tiling on the floor indicates that this is the same building as where the March "gas attack" videos were filmed. The hospital building is the second building south from the street corner. The SAMS photo is taken from the third floor, from the northeast corner room of the building. The half-finished building across the street is seen from the window. It does not seem to be damaged by the explosion. --Petri Krohn (talk) 11:25, 22 October 2015 (UTC)
 * Three versions, all the same
 * الدفاع المدني ادلب سرمين 20/10/2015 لحظة استهداف عناصر الدفاع الغارة الثانية أثناء القيام بواجبهم (Civil Defense Idlib Sermin 10/20/2015 The moment of targeting elements of the defense during the second raid on duty) - Civil Defense Idlib
 * إستهداف الدفاع المدني في بلدة سرمين من قبل الطيران الحربي الروسي وهم يقومون بواجبهم الانساني (Targeting civil defense in the town of Sermin by Russian warplanes They are doing their duty humanitarian) - media.civildefense idlib, October 21, 2015
 * HD POV GoPro Footage Captures The Moment Alleged Airstrike Lands Close In Sarmin, Idlib - WarLeaks
 * The lucky cameraman just happens to be filming when the bomb hits. Was this a real Russian bomb, or was the whole video staged?
 * ادلب سرمين : اخلاء الجرحى بسبب تكرر القصف على المشفى وتضرر المشفى وعجره عن استقبال الجرحى (Idlib Sermin: evacuate the wounded due to the repeated shelling of the hospital and damaged the hospital and receive the injured from the nub) - Coordinating Sarmin,
 * Shows one wounded White Helmet member. Another man is lying on the hospital floor, possibly dead.
 * I can't verify this yet, but it could be - we're talking the little building (larger one just south of it) on the left side of the north south street running south off the main street, by the dirt lot on the left? The angle building to the north isn't a clear match. But it's the right area for the baby transfer video mapped above to make sense - baby last seen driven this way. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:57, 22 October 2015 (UTC)
 * Wherever it is, it's a total match for the clinic. Waiting room is a match, and the doorway - see 4:20 in night-time video, looking out: on the left side of the doorway an extra panel, and outside a wall to the left. Both in the new video, 0:44 and 0:49.
 * Looking closer, I'm pretty sure (94%) this is the spot. The angles are hard to be sure about but all kinds of little details match up. Good call, as usual. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:17, 25 October 2015 (UTC)

The blast seems pretty small to me, sounds fast but no jet sound FWIW, arriving from the west or W-NW it seems. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:57, 22 October 2015 (UTC) And ... how is the clinic so damaged? The photo shows it's not, just jumbled a bit. The blast happens outside, just meters from this guy who lives just fine. Where were the 12 who died? Buried an inch under the dirt right where it hit? Makes no sense. The clinic is shielded by a building. Were the victims all seated in the back of that truck maybe? That could do it, but what timing. Or was it the second strike that hit the clinic and killed people? And if so, was the jumble photo taken after that? And why no more severe damage shown? Tennari makes it sound like a total loss, the worst of 11 air strikes against the place. But it looks like a strong wind came in the windows. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:23, 22 October 2015 (UTC)

There's a guy coming out of the clinic towards the end of the video. Urs has identified him as one Muawiya Hassan Agha, showing his facebook page and several photos/videos. Apparently an alleged witness of the chemical attack, likes posing armed on tanks and not only as a White Helmet, but is one of those who were seen with Nusra celebrating the conquest of Idlib. Small world. --CE (talk) 16:28, 23 October 2015 (UTC)

Russian response
Meanwhile the Russian Foreign ministry denied the claims and dissed SOHR. --CE (talk) 16:28, 23 October 2015 (UTC)


 * from that RT report:
 * "Experts have questioned the authenticity of the video posted by the rebels, stating that it is physically impossible to film such a powerful explosion from a few meters away and survive.


 * “It didn’t look like an aerial bomb dropped from an airplane. It appeared to come from an angle and the angle of the explosion appeared to be more like artillery,” a former policy analyst for the US Defense Department, Michael Maloof, told RT.


 * I don't think the video is fake or anything, but the low angle seems correct (but can't jet missles level off? must it be a dropped bomb?) As for surviving, I think the cameraman suffered a visible (bloody) injury to the right leg, from how Muawiya looks down with concern at, who waves his worries aside and sits down for treatment with a stiff leg. --Caustic Logic (talk) 05:29, 24 October 2015 (UTC)

According to RT, Russia said that it used KB -500 (500 kg bunker-buster) bomb, and showed a video-with a big black mushroom cloud; while in the video presented explosion looks different, and operator gets back on his feet shortly after (improbable if a 500 kg bomb goes off nearby). They also say that in the video, the building remains standing, while in the follow-up it is completely destroyed. text, video (in Russian, but initially in English --not sure where the English version would be). Russian FM pointed out that the report is filed from London. --Resup (talk) 18:44, 24 October 2015 (UTC)

Another Russian gem: This time MoD disses SAMS on their facebook account. Money quote: "This organization, which is registered in Illinois American state, has as much do with both medicine and doctors as ISIS has to do with the International Scout Movement." The rhetorical gloves are really coming off. I wasn't familiar with the term "stovepiping" they use. --CE (talk) 20:52, 26 October 2015 (UTC)


 * Better translation;; "We have been closely monitoring and analysing such hoaxes. First of all it is necessary to clarify information about the Syrian American Medical Society itself. This organization, registered in the American state of Illinois, has the same relation to medicine and doctors as the IS [Islamic State terrorist organization] to the international Scouting movement," Konashenkov said. -- source -- Petri Krohn (talk) 21:05, 26 October 2015 (UTC)
 * "stovepiping": Russian is "информационный вброс", which is midway between "information release" and manipulative or outright false information release ; "вброс" is like throw out stuff, possibly well packed but still kind of crap. This is very standard political technology neologism which everybody understands. I have seen before somewhere this translated as stovepiping (in some English media).  --Resup (talk) 22:42, 26 October 2015 (UTC)

More from Russian MoD: "Defense Ministry invited military attaches of the United States of America, Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and NATO and requested for official justification of the statements or refuting them. It was particularly in regard to flagrant accusations of “hitting” hospitals published by several English-speaking media agencies...The defense department of Russia is looking forward to receive the necessary explanations in a few days." (They say they will investigate, given evidence). --Resup (talk) 19:14, 27 October 2015 (UTC)

Real target: school across the street

 * ادلب سرمين: الغارة الأولى التي استهدفت المدرسة الملاصقة للمشفى بتاريخ 20/10/2015 (Idlib Sermin: The first raid targeted a school adjacent to the hospital on 10/20/2015) - Coordinating Sermin, Oct 22, 2015
 * Video shows al Nusra logo. Seems to be between first and second strike. The small guardhouse at the gate has disappeared.
 * قصف لطائرات روسية على بلدة سرمين بريف إدلب يسفر عن 12 قتيل بينهم عنصر من الدفاع المدني (Russian planes bombed the town of Sermin in Idlib countryside, resulting in 12 people dead, including an member of civil defense) SMART News Agency, Oct 21, 2015
 * The western end of the southern wing of the school has collapsed. Also the two larger guardhouses east of the gate seem to have disappeared.


 * That lines up with the video and the photos. All this might deserve its own page. If I'm following right - and thanks so much Petri for leading (I'm not on the ball lately) - Tennari and others claim the clinic was directly targeted with two strikes, when only the school area was hit twice, with minor blast wave damage to windows etc. on the clinic - there's serious questions about what hit the school - Tennari claims the clinic was targeted ten times already and this 11th incident sounds like the worst, and the clinic is now unusable. Patients in one video are being taken out, maybe to one of his fabled underground clinics, or just to show how this place must be totaled (or just in danger?). Russian jets are blamed, of course. Anyway, a good analysis article with visuals might expose some serious dishonesty here. ... want to team up? --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:59, 25 October 2015 (UTC)

October 21 strike
Минобороны России ‏@mod_russia tweets October 21: 1, 2, 3, 4
 * 1) SYRIA On Oct.19, radiorecon means intercepted data concerning meeting of commanders of illegal armed groups operating near #Sarmin (#Idlib)
 * 2) SYRIA The meeting place, which was the underground floor of an abandoned building, was put under surveillance of #UAV's
 * 3) SYRIA Last night, after detection of 9 SUVs with machine guns, the whole object with its contents was destroyed with #KAB500 smart air bomb
 * 4) FOOTAGE Precision strike on meeting point of illegal armed groups command (#Idlib province) https://youtu.be/1q458uRROPI

Sounds like the October 20 strike in question - although the power of the blast is in question. Are they claiming this hit or not? Abandoned building = abandoned school? Near Sarmin = in Sarmin, at this school? Last night = mid-day the day before? No ... just to be clear, these sound like two distinct events, in case anyone tries to mix them up. --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:51, 25 October 2015 (UTC)
 * It seems that RT at least is mixing up the events here and here. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 09:06, 25 October 2015 (UTC)

Analysis

 * Russia’s 'Bombing' of Syrian Hospitals: The Incredible Expanding Lie - Tony Cartalucci, New Eastern Outlook, October 27, 2015
 * No firsthand info on alleged Russian 'airstrike' on hospital in Syria – Red Cross top executive - RT, 29 Oct, 2015