Talk:Alleged Chemical Attack, August 21, 2013/Victims Analysis

Alleged Chemical Attack, August 21, 2013

Talk:Alleged Chemical Attack, August 21, 2013

Videos
My YouTube playlist: Brown Moses has a list with 120 videos. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 18:43, 21 August 2013 (UTC)
 * http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL5WYCTqm6QUFEgCRhTevaLEr2inzR7jZM
 * http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLPC0Udeof3T4NORTjYmPoNCHn2vCByvYG

The earliest original videos seem to be coming from the Kvrbtna Coordinating Committee (تنسيقية كفربطنا): I have no idea where "Kvrbtna" is, but searching for the word in Arabic only brings up massacre pictures and videos. (The logo on the videos says it is Kafar Batna City.) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 19:41, 21 August 2013 (UTC)
 * http://www.youtube.com/user/syriafredoom/videos
 * Kafar Batna is here on the southern outskirts of Irbin (there's a "Al Fateh Hospital" central in the markation). The two places given by the reddit collection are at least two kilometers north-west of that in Jobar. The mentioned Ain Terma and Zamalka are in between.--CE (talk) 20:25, 21 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Excellent start here, Petri, thanks. No time left today. 120 videos? Will not be watching most of those. More soon. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:49, 21 August 2013 (UTC)


 * The Visual Evidence of a Chemical Attack in Syria Is Overwhelming and Disturbing – Dashiell Bennett / The Atlantic Wire, August 21, 2013
 * The government has officially denied using any such weapons, but the United Nations inspection team that arrived in the country on Sunday (to investigate previous claims of chemical weapon attacks) has been denied access to the site. As a result, the images below are the only evidence we have of the devastation — and there is a lot of evidence.

In situ videos
After abandoning my earlier working hypothesis of an chemical weapons rocket attack I have started collecting in situ evidence here. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:35, 29 August 2013 (UTC)
 * الريف الدمشقي عربين حالة هلع بين المدينين وإستخراج شهيدة طفلة من تحت الأنقاض 14 8 2013 (Damascus countryside Irbeen panic among debtors and extraction martyr girl from under the rubble 14 8 2013) – Ibreen Media Office, Aug 14, 2013
 * http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCy6Fp0uAwo (field hospital)
 * http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vSLFE4W0nw (mass grave, closeup)
 * http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCqGGxkNZBU (dead chicken)
 * تغطية للمجزرة الكيماوية الكبرى في الغوطة الشرقية مع ناشطين مجلس قيادة الثورة في ريف دمشق (Coverage of the massacre of the major chemical in East Gouta with activists of the Revolutionary Command Council in Damascus) – Aug 21, 2013
 * Long video, 21 min, morgue scenes, interviews, street scene at 20 min.
 * الغوطة الشرقية 21-8-2013 أب وأم في وداع أطفالهم (East Gouta 08/21/2013 father and mother in their children's farewell)
 * http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4cWrx4zjvA (doctor)
 * http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMNvmICoUmk (bodies outside Kafar Batna hospital)
 * الغوطة الشرقية 22-8-2013 أطفال مجهولي الهوية تم العثور عليهم من ضحايا الكيماوي (East Gouta 22/08/2013 unidentified children were found victims of chemical) – Ibreen CC, August 23, 2013
 * Three badly decomposed bodies are dumped in grave. We are not shown where they were found. Evidently not in their beds, as they are fully dressed. Update Same 3 children as described above in the house with the planted bodies. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:38, 29 August 2013 (UTC)
 * هاااااام للإعلام # الغوطة الشرقية # شاهد عيان يروي لنا ما جرى لحظة القصف بالمواد الكيماوية السامة 2 (Haaaaaam Media # East Gouta # eyewitness tells us what happened to the moment of the bombing of toxic chemicals 2) – Ibreen Media Office, August 21,2013
 * عربين 21 8 2013 قصف جنوني وهستيري عنيف بالمدفعية الثقيلة وراجمات الصواريخ على المدينة (Orbin 21 8 2013 bombing of a violent crazy and hysterical with heavy artillery and rocket launchers on the city) – Ibreen Media Office, August 20,2013
 * بعض الحيوانات النافقة نتيجة استخدام السلاح الكيماوي في زملكا - الغوطة الشرقية (Some dead animals as a result of the use of chemical weapons in Zamalka - East Gouta) – KafarSousah Revolt, Aug 27, 2013
 * dead sheep, shell remains
 * جولة مع قوى الأمن العام للبحث عن مصابين بالسلاح الكيماوي في زملكا - الغوطة الشرقية (Tour with public security forces to search for people with chemical weapons in Zamalka - East Gouta) – KafarSousah Revolt, Aug 27, 2013
 * one decomposed body
 * بعض الحيوانات النافقة نتيجة استخدام السلاح الكيماوي في زملكا - الغوطة الشرقية (Some dead animals as a result of the use of chemical weapons in Zamalka - East Gouta) – KafarSousah Revolt, Aug 27, 2013
 * برومو للمجزرة الكيماوية الكبرى في الغوطة الشرقية HD (Promo for major chemical massacre in East Gouta HD) – c.m.o algota, Aug 27, 2013
 * مؤثر جدا أب يجد بناته بين ضحايا مجزرة الكيماوي في الغوطة الشرقية (Father finds his daughters among the victims of the massacre in East Gota chemical) – SyrRev15Mar2011, Aug 24, 2013 (repost)
 * Morgue scene, real looking emotions.
 * فوق أشلاء وجثث الأطفال رسالة مؤلمة من أحد المجاهدين للأمة الإسلامية والقادة العرب (Above the remains of the bodies of children a painful message from one of the Mujahideen of the Islamic nation and the Arab leaders) – hadi Hdhod, Aug 20, 2013
 * Dead children outside, ISIS member? agitating.

Etc. ...

Stabbed Girl?
One video, two postings:
 * 21 8 2013 هام جدا الغوطة الشرقية اختناق الاطفال وموتهم بسبب القصف بالكيماوي (East Gouta very important bottleneck (suffocation) children and deaths due to bombardment with chemotherapy (chemical weapons)) – posted by MrERBEEN2011
 * Syria Father crying over his Children who were killed in the Chemical Attack on Eastern Gouta (+18) – Bashar Assad Crimes Archive, Aug 21, 2013
 * A father is shedding tears over his children who were killed due to the shelling on Eastern Gouta with chemical weapons by Assad's gangs. A great number of injuries was documented which is not less than 50 martyrs so far in this area. All of them died due to suffocation with poisonous gas. We urge the International Investigation Committee and the powerless world to see how Syria's children are getting killed with chemical weapons by the hands of an imbecile tyrant.

Interestingly the "father" is more interested in calling for the UN and NATO to bomb "Assad" than in the death of his daughters. One must thus conclude that this is a pure propaganda video and provides no evidence on the situation on the ground, apart from the fact that three people are dead. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:16, 27 August 2013 (UTC)

The girl in yellow seems to be the one discussed below not matching the other girl in yellow. That scene is given as Irbin, suggested here by poster "MrERBEEN2011·710." As for the girl in purple more at the center of this video, that must be her next to her sister in the other video - similar shirt and circular logo with pink center and lighter fringe. As for her unexplained injury: On closer inspection one must ask: why does the girl have an open stab wound on her chest? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:16, 27 August 2013 (UTC)
 * I watched this, forgot to comment. Pretty horrible, of course. He's saying he's her father, isn't he? I'm not buying it, too old. The dead guy next to the dead kids seems a better fit - in his undershirt. "It isn't my turn to eat today," her last words - that was a bit much. And yes, she does have a hole in her chest, right about over the heart. It almost looks like the old creep is sticking his finger in it at one point, and it seems wider after that. I could wonder about a medical reason -there are some conditions where you inject adrenaline into the heart with a giant needle, like in the movie Pulp Fiction. Otherwise, looks like an Islamist stabbed her in the heart with a small blade. Maybe they're Alawites really. Whatever, camera fodder for cannon pleadings. Callous baby-shakers, I hate these people. Hands off Syria, motherfucker! --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:28, 28 August 2013 (UTC)

Also, I wonder why they didn't think to pull her shirt back down. She's apparently even done bleeding by this time. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:42, 2 September 2013 (UTC)

The girl in purple can also be seen here, in a hospital setting - same pushed-up shirt, same gray pants with purple pocket seams: 2013-8-21 هااام - الاصابات بين الاطفال والنساء جراء القصف الاسلحة اليكماويةعلى الغوطة الشرقية G-trans: Haaam - injuries among children and women shelling weapons Alakmawihaly the East Gouta. Stamped Erbin, uploaded by erbeeni. That must be her next to the girl in yellow below. She's visible here too, getting oxygen. Her eyes are very sunken and dark-looking. Both look pretty dead, maybe a day in and past rigor mortis. But they are being treated with IVs and have been washed down as if chemical exposed. Living patients litter the floor, these two get the beds. Do they think she might be alive? Didn't her "father" inform them of her condition and her sad last words? --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:42, 2 September 2013 (UTC)

In that video, you just cannot see the purple girl's left side to see if the wound is there yet, but probably. I couldn't save a copy, cannot get a good screen pause at 0:14 or 0:26 to be sure - the cameraman seems to be avoiding a view of that area, for one clue it is wounded in this non-CW way. Again, they didn't just pull her shirt back down, I wonder why? It's pulled down in the later morgue video, after they conceded a failure to revive her and her sister. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:30, 2 September 2013 (UTC)

Body Recycling?
There are allegations that a smaller pool of victims was passed off as a larger one by presenting the same victims numerous times, each time as different victims. There's at least one alleged example of this alleged, concerning some of the larger victims arrays shown. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:07, 2 September 2013 (UTC)

Swedish Expatriates Analysis
This video tries to debunk a large part of the story (now translated into English): The same group of small children (girls mainly, like the ones we saw in the Baniyas massacre) are filmed in at least three different arrangements. Each piece of footage is then published by a different rebel YouTube channel. (One of them is the Kafr Batna Coordinating Committee) Did they move the bodies around to film them in different parts of the Eastern Ghouta? For all I know these could be Kurd children massacred in Tal-Abyad by ISIS. (See Dead girls in morgue above.) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:29, 22 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Fake massacre by Syrian army using Chemical weapons – Translated by Syrians in Sweden
 * Watched that. I agree with their call. It seems she's been been presented in three spreads that seem to be described as different victims batches in different towns. Three times, one victims. Other matches should be likely if so. And yes, they would be that sloppy and usually are. But in one room, we see what looks like about two dozen young girls. As a baseline indicator, this has to be big. I'd estimate 30 boys, 20 women, 30 men, another just-triple-digits on-the-fringes "Shabiha" massacre of certain families is a lot what it looks like, but with no visible wounds. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:25, 22 August 2013 (UTC)
 * The debunk is debunked here: The Ghouta Chemical Attack Propaganda Frenzy - Debunked:

I checked the debunk, and it seems pretty good. I'm not sure the first two are the same room, but it was never made clear they're even supposed to be different places. Both first videos fail to mention where they are. I can add that at least four other children come out in common between the two, meaning it is exactly the same array. Whatever place(s) these are, it's apparently not Irbin, because the third video says it is and it's a different place. But as the debunkation was ableto show, it's not the same girl. Yellow and gray, but not in the right places. Otherwise similar, but not the same. I wondered about the purple shirted girl near her, and there are two similar tops appearing in the first videos, but the sub-colorsdo not match. Different body arrays shown between the three videos: two. If there's deception in the first two, it wasn't shown here. The Swedish activists failed. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:25, 2 September 2013 (UTC)


 * The location is most connected with the Kafr Batna Coordination Committee, a real hospital or a temporary one in school or other public building. We should have out own subpage for this one site and start off by identifying the hospital location. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 13:48, 2 September 2013 (UTC)
 * I was thinking this page could have sections for each town's body array(s). Irbin is partly covered. Locations might best be covered under Main talk, locations, like I just did with the Zamalka mass grave. Too many pages is a possible problem too. This one should have some space to spare. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:55, 2 September 2013 (UTC)

Victim Lists
It's said there are lists compiled with over 1,000 names. If anyone finds any, they could be linked here. I looked only a bit, might take an Arabic search on Facebook. --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:19, 1 September 2013 (UTC)

At right is a Facebook timeline photo of a partial list, 33 victims, from the rebel-run "Legal Office of the City of Erbin."

s.o.s.syr.un
Here is a list on Facebook (text saved) of a LCC-sized death toll - 646 deaths accounted for, named individually up to 201, then in giant groups with bulk explanations. It's headed (trans) "Our National Council. Our demand military intervention. Under the supervision of the United Nations." (is that the group's name? - domain s.o.s.syr.un - UN help Syria) And it describes what it lists as "- 646 Shahid chemical weapons from Damascus and its countryside towns - 19 martyr chemical weapons from outside towns Damascus and its countryside." --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:29, 3 September 2013 (UTC)

There is a lot of useful (alleged) information in this list, some of it to be worked into areas above. Here I'll note a key feature of it - it says a majority of victims (the 445 given in lumps) were all unidentified. This was compiled on August 22, so it could be that many people simply hadn't been identified in the chaos. But it could be a clue. One thing that captors who'd taken hostages and their identity cards or papers can do is identify them easily. So perhaps they'd decide not to - they'd rather not name the hostages or make up fake names, so they "just found them like that." For what it's worth and because there's space, the entries for over 2/3 of their victims Google translated: 201-236 - Thirty-six martyrs did not reach their names / Damascus - Sham Medmah / martyred as a result of forces shelled System of the city with chemical weapons 236-294 - Fifty-eight martyrs did not reach their names / Damascus / arrived for field hospitals in the city Douma a result of the bombing of regime forces of the Eastern Ghouta chemical weapons 294-394 - a hundred Shahid did not reach their names / Damascus / arrived to field hospitals in city Kafr Batna a result regime forces shelling of the Eastern Ghouta chemical weapons 394-544 - hundred and fifty martyrs did not reach the names / Damascus / arrived to field hospitals in the city Hamouriya as a result of the bombing of regime forces of the Eastern Ghouta chemical weapons, including 50 / children / women 40/50 Youth / 544-574 - Thirty martyr did not reach the names / Damascus / arrived for field hospitals in the city Irbeen a result of the bombing of regime forces of the Eastern Ghouta chemical weapons, including 23 children and 17 women 574 - 643 - Sixty-nine martyrs did not reach their names / Damascus / arrived for field hospitals in the city Sakba a result of the bombing of regime forces of the Eastern Ghouta chemical weapons 643-646 - Four martyrs of them is not recognized / Damascus / arrived to field hospitals in the city of bridges ( جسرين - jsryn = Jisreen?) as a result of the bombing of regime forces of the Eastern Ghouta chemical weapons (from the double-use of cut-off numbers - 294, 394, 544, etc.) it seems they undercounted by a few. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:54, 3 September 2013 (UTC)

SCDV
I looked at the opposition Center for Documentation of Violations (SCDV) database. It's a thing I usually do, a little late here. Here's what I found messing with different parameters, all of course based on what was reported to them: All Damascus suburbs deahs from "Chemical and toxic gases" Aug. 21: 509, out of 542 total "martyr" deaths. This morning it said 510, but the overall death toll remains the same; one was demoted. By category, chem alone (total): Child, female: 44 (45). Child, male: 49 (51). Adult female: 115 (119) Adult male: 301 (327). That's way too many men to be totally random, even including teenagers - it's more than the other categories combined. That's gender segregation, isn't it? Was the Syrian equivalent of the YMCA hit? implied core of families, older children as children, not adults, rough estimates: adult women minus teenagers = 90. girls +30 = 75. boys + 35 = 86. Adult men of families: 120. Non-attached men: 179? --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:19, 1 September 2013 (UTC)

Order of reports: numbers are issued as reports come in, and they're listed by number order. The first entries are from Mouadamiyeh, then a bunch from Zamalka, coming from both in intermingled bursts, Ain Tarma Kafr Batna ... really scattered returns, main feature is how the majority say Zamalka. Jobar and Daraya victims come in only in ones, then several from Hazza, more Zamalkas, Kafr Batna... that's part of the list scanned, into page 2. What stands out too is how a majority of all entries say Zamalka: 344 out of the 509 (it was 345 earlier, the demoted one was one of them). men 198, women 83, boys 30, girls 34 (of 44 total to chems!) I think these locations refer to where they're from, not necessarily where they died. At least a few say Area: Zamalka. Martyrdom location: (blank). --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:19, 1 September 2013 (UTC)

Non-civilian deaths in what included a government offensive against rebels and rebel-held areas: of 301 men gassed, 13 are listed as on-civilian. Another 13 were killed with other weapons, rhe list says, for a total of 26 acknowledged rebel fighters killed in the Damcus suburbs that day. --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:19, 1 September 2013 (UTC)


 * I would expect men – out fighting at night – to be more exposed that children in protected bedrooms. Aerosol nerve agents just cannot get in. Kerry has the numbers upside down, with one third children. This ratio would need specific targeting, like hostages killed or something. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 02:39, 1 September 2013 (UTC)


 * But this is civilian men, not supposedly out fighting. However, fathers and uncles will also go out to investigate, find food, fight if needed, and leave the wife and kids at home. And so, more men from more homes would be out when it hit, gassing a wide area, with less families in basements only in the immediate area. (If aerosol can't do it, let's say they blame a heavy creeping gas). So the same pattern would hold, to whatever degree - more men will die. Okay. But that's in the scenario where there was significant gassing in the open, which we're questioning. If these are primarily killed captives, and the numbers are at all accurate, it seems like the same all or mostly men massacred in Daraya, the Queiq River, etc. Or Possibly laundered rebels included, in huge numbers, or some combination. Just what SCDV records mean, as usual, isn't certain. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:03, 1 September 2013 (UTC)

The SCDV list is still shrinking! It said 510, then 509, now 507 deaths.This time, the total number changed: 542 to 540. So no one was demoted to a different death, but rather all the way to not dead at all. I have no good way to discern which people these were. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:00, 3 September 2013 (UTC)
 * Their Arabic language list is different, FWIW:544 total deaths, 511 by chemicals, ATM. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:04, 3 September 2013 (UTC)

Douma
Google translate's "always" = دوما = dwma (romanized) = Douma

Entire sos.sy.un list contains entries 193, 194, 200 for individual Douma victims, then 58 unnamed ones in a lump. 193. Martyr: Abdul Rahman (Abu Hassan) / Damascus - Always / PhD in psychology - Islamic Studies / cited (died) during the evacuation of the martyrs of chemotherapy 194. Mujahid: Abdul Rahman trochanter (Abu Bashar al-) / Damascus - (from?) Douma / Army free (FSA) / cited (died) in the Jobar neighborhood of Damascus. Facebook photo as linked: Looks like a CW victim, asphyxiation, roughed up eyes, mucous from the nose. 200. Martyr: Mahmoud Mohammed Shehadeh Mansour / Damascus - Sham Medmah / died in Douma rural Damascus --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:34, 3 September 2013 (UTC) Entries 236-294: "Fifty-eight martyrs did not reach their names / Damascus / arrived for field hospitals in the city Douma as a result of the bombing of regime forces of the Eastern Ghouta chemical weapons" --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:34, 3 September 2013 (UTC)


 * دوما::عدد كبير من الشهداء جراء الاختناق بالغازات السامة (Always :: large number of martyrs by asphyxiation with poison gas) – outside morgue scene
 * All adult males, mostly wrapped, fighting age but not bearded. One uncovered is lightly-bearded, wears army fatigue trousers, white sneakers (Shabiha?) and torn t-shirt. Face battered and scratched up, likely explosion, swollen black eye, head wounds, bandaged (or is that just some cap?), tube in arm, fluid drip, something in his mouth. Left arm saw fire and smoke, right hand, blood. All could be soldiers or rebel fighter/defectors. Not the slightest sign of CW involvement I can see, but it's possible. Little clue to location. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:28, 2 September 2013 (UTC)