Talk:Alleged Chemical Attack Khan Sheikhoun 4 April 2017/Location

Alleged bomb location
Telegraph article Gives specific location for one bomb strike "Corniche St" in the north part of the town. We have already seen an alleged fresh crater near the grain silos/bakery. I assume Corniche St is nearby? I can't find any street map to confirm. One other snippt is the wind is listed as blowing to the west - that's consistent with the Hama weather data. It also makes the Bellingcat 'analysis' somewhat dubious. --Charles Wood (talk) 03:19, 6 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Christiaan Triebert tweets that Pentagon and Brown Noses located the bomb crater, by which Hadi Abdallah is seen in his report video, at the same place - in front of the silos, near (somewhat) to where the strange US media image had its yellowish puddle. Pretty exactly here it is on wikimapia. --CE (talk) 03:40, 8 April 2017 (UTC)

A SMART News reporter visits the site of the bomb crater. Video: Testimony of the survivors of the regime chemical attack on Khan Shaikhoun in idleb At 1:08 he enters one of the buildings on the main street. He seems to be saying that people in the cellar floor had died of the attack. Who would live here? No furniture. Only a dirty rug on the floor for sleeping with an even smaller mattress serving as a common pillow. Internally displaced people, maybe. Or prisoners and hostages. The five shoes left next to the mattress belong to women and children. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 02:19, 9 April 2017 (UTC)
 * That's not quite the spot the US marked - this is on the highway, just SW of the silos. At 1:02 we see the crater, facing north and nearer (south of the crater) chunks of pavement and dirt. Could these be tossed from that impact? If so, direction of projectile was south, fired from the north. US map shows one track only flying apparently a bit south of Khan Sheikhoun. But I supposed a fancy missile could swoop north, turn around, head south, and do this? --Caustic Logic (talk) 03:19, 9 April 2017 (UTC)




 * CNN reports "US military and intelligence analysts have now confirmed it was Syrian regime warplanes that struck a hospital in Idlib province with chemical weapons. The US picked up the radar intelligence that regime warplanes were in the air and got the infrared signature of bombs detonating at the hospital according to a US official with direct knowledge of the information." But the US map shows a spot about 150-200 meters SW of the silos area as impact point. If the hospital (labeled separately in the right spot east of town) is where people were gassed - what were they all doing there? (I guess this is just some kind of mix-up? Or is there another hospital in the allegedly hit area? Nothing that looks like one, but they usually don't) --Caustic Logic (talk) 03:09, 9 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Is US intelligence claiming the White Helmets field hospital was the site of the exposure to sarin? Quote: "regime warplanes that struck a hospital in Idlib province with chemical weapons." Actually I agree, the cave complex is he most likely place for exposure. The victims where then moved to Shajul Islam's hospital downtown. But what were the civilian-looking people doing in this al-Qaeda / al-CIAda military complex at 6 am in the morning? See "" below. And why were only civilians affected and none of the White Helmets? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 03:40, 9 April 2017 (UTC)


 * See the Avigdor Lieberman quote Resup added to the section today. Apparently the claim is that "Assad" hit first near the silos, then the victims were evacuated to Whora Hora, where "Assad" hit a second time. All in 9 minutes. 100%. Or something  --CE (talk) 03:42, 9 April 2017 (UTC)


 * It may be that weird. Russia and Syria say the place they bombed was a place al-Nusra had CWs stored - US seems to say they say that was the hospital (cum-hostel?). But really .. is it that weird? I suspect not. For one thing, they're 8 hours off on timing, so we don't have a clear everyone agrees scenario. Something's amiss, and it might be six things or more. Takes untangling. (and sorry I've been so lame so far) --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:03, 9 April 2017 (UTC)

Crater
What kind of explosion would create the crater seen? A 122 mm Grad rocket hardly pierces the asphalt. Also note, that the electricity distribution box right next to the crater has not been damaged by the blast. The damage to the surrounding warehouses is said to be 6 months old. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 06:22, 9 April 2017 (UTC)


 * The size of the crater depends a bit on the fuzing type and fuze. The KS crater could easily be made by a 122mm HE rocket if it delayed a few milliseconds to detonate.
 * I find it less believable an S5 missile did it as that only has 800 gram warhead.


 * A third alternative is that the crater is old and a relic from a previous battle. This is less likely as it would presumably be filled in. However, the undamaged structure beside it could have been placed later if it was an old crater. It it was present at the detonation it would surely(?) have some shrapnel damage and paint scouring. --Charles Wood (talk) 08:47, 9 April 2017 (UTC)

Petri brought this, all images from that day, starting around noon. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:16, 11 April 2017 (UTC)


 * These images are from at least 3 different days, I made a video collection instead, I also added some of my observations there. Note that there is a video tsunami from April 6th, but I only managed to find a single video from the day before. --Q (talk) 12:18, 21 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Interesting - how did you decide it was three different days? (sorry to be brief and not dig for an answer at the link - pressed for time - as I guess some readers will be) --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:08, 21 April 2017 (UTC)


 * There are many clues and I didn't reach the conclusion this way, but this is probably the most straightforward explanation:
 * * There are 2 videos published on April 4th.
 * * SMART has a batch of photos from April 5th, and these photos show the same scenes that also appear in their video published on April 5th.
 * * The next group of videos have several similarities, the "press briefing" setup, their publishing dates on Youtube are April 6th, late afternoon-evening(local time), there are common characters and other visual clues. The video in this Facebook post fits perfectly to this group, and the description has the exact filming date, April 6th("Thursday").
 * --Q (talk) 15:14, 21 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Not sure if this is/should be in your collection. Hadi Alabdullah by the crater on 4 April before any substantial alterations but with chemical staining on road significantly reduced. Had On Site --Charles Wood (talk) 21:43, 21 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Thanks, Q. I don't have time to review that, but there's some explanation for anyone else, or me eventually. it wouldn't be surprising if they come from different days. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:02, 25 April 2017 (UTC)


 * I noticed in the 'professional' SMART video of April 5 some dead birds in a cage. I assume Krazy Kaszeta Kemistry ™ has a simple explanation why 'non persistent' Sarin was still killing birds a day later. I suspect that explanation won't include the locals faking it. --Charles Wood (talk) 12:38, 21 April 2017 (UTC)


 * I just found this video from Faruq Shami, it shows the White Helmet sample collection team in action on April 4th. It's a long video (15 min), and there are several interesting scenes, so I recommend everyone to watch it, the crater part starts at 07:56. It's April 4th, at ~17, this is so far the first recorded sample collection attempt. The red signs that appear in later videos originate from this team. Mostly soil samples are collected, but I can see a dead bird and something that looks like a metal piece as well. The small metal piece in the crater was moved, but it wasn't collected for some reason. --Q (talk) 17:04, 24 April 2017 (UTC)


 * I updated the pastebin with two new videos, White Helmets collecting samples, and a great drone video that shows the surroundings of the crater and the nearest neighborhood. --Q (talk) 17:14, 24 April 2017 (UTC)

It might have been there already. It looks like a power pole was knocked down by this impact, they set up this electric box to help (?) and that probably hadn't all been done by noon. But maybe. Anyway, the north view video (see ) shows no plume rising from the crater area after the first round of alleged air strikes.

So was it hit earlier? Or later yet, and they still had that fresh electric box placed before the first images? Or did no violence happen there at all this day? It doesn't look obvioulsy old - as Charles notes, it's not filled-in, and the debris spread looks realistic (but maybe lacking in tossed-up dirt) --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:16, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

Furthermore, doesn't that crater suggest a blast, and maybe a powerful one? And wouldn't that vaporize any sarin it also released? --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:16, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

Direction of travel: the crater details to me suggest it came from N-NW, seeming to raise and crack the pavement to the S-SE. It actually lines up pretty well with the damaged building that way, but if they've been that way for months, I suppose that's a coincidence. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:16, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

Whora Hora

 * ''(I have decided to name this place Whora Hora after bin Laden's more famous cave hideout and hospital. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 20:36, 6 April 2017 (UTC) )

I found one possible location for the White Helmets cave complex. There is a plot for a warehouse carved into the hillside on the eastern side of the M5 motorway, 1.2 km north, northeast of the point where the missile struck next to the grain silos. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 00:47, 6 April 2017 (UTC)

...but Aldin on Twitter found the real one. No coordinates. :( -- 05:09, 6 April 2017 (UTC)
 * This is at 35.441414, 36.671107 just outside the eastern edge of the town. Between the time of the google maps photo and the more recent satellite photo there have been large-scale excavations, and ventilation shafts have appeared in the field above the quarry.


 * As there was a hospital in town under the direction of struck-off Dr Shajul Islam, there was no reason for casualties to have taken to this quarry outside town. It's interesting that one of the photos uploaded by Petri shows a child being carried out of one of the bunkers by the WH cameraman who was photographed from behind by the Reuters cameraman. A careful comparison of videos and stills for continuity errors may show that children are decontaminated after they come out of the bunker, with obvious implications. Pmr9 (talk) 16:29, 6 April 2017 (UTC)

On April 3 Shajul Islam tweets a two minute video with a look inside a 800 m2 cave complex that he says is under 30 meters of mountain. One future hospital room is shown and seems to be about 7 x 3.5 meters in size. Cinder blocks are waiting for inner walls to be built. Shajul Islam says the hospital will have "about 10 to 15 rooms this size". Who said Osama bin Laden could not receive kidney dialysis at Tora Bora? This hospital will have CT scanners an everything - all paid for by the UK government. The video connects Dr Shajul Islam to the White Helmets cave hospital. SI operated other hospitals in Syria, but he was in Khan Sheikhoun and the soft earth in the caves is similar to what we see in the White Helmets base. This put Shajul Islam in control of both of the hospitals in Khan Sheikhoun. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 18:34, 7 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Dr Shajul Islam‏ @DrShajulIslam - April 3:
 * ''"After 5 hospitals hit and closed last week, this is the future of hospitals in Syria. Help by donating MedicalAidSyria.com
 * April 4: ''This is not a SAMS project. One nation UK will be buying equipment for this hospital."


 * If the cave hospital outside Khan Sheikhoun was so unfinished that the chambers were just cinder blocks with no inner walls, this is strong evidence against the opposition version (channelled by Kareem Shaheen in The Guardian) that victims were taken there to be treated, and consistent with the alternative that these chambers were used to hold captives. Do we have any images of victims inside the cave hospital, or being carried out of it (apart from the one photo of the WH cameraman? Pmr9 (talk) 20:27, 7 April 2017 (UTC)


 * "Whora Hora" is a huge complex and is being enlarged all the time. In other videos we see the inside of the existing hospital. I believe there are two other entrance courtyards to the cave complex. The two others may be used for weapons storage and for chemical weapons. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 20:56, 7 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Here is one video, from Petri's playlist, that shows the inside of the existing cave hospital. --CE (talk) 21:27, 7 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Shajul Islam didn't arrive in Khan Sheikhoun area until late March. On March 19 he was still in Idlib. His first twitter mention of KS area is on March 23 when he says "As the battle to free #hama continues we are saving lives from a cave on the front lines. Dua requested". He had previously been in Aleppo until its liberation and then in Idlib. His presence at the site of the attack was certainly opportune for the jihadis. Steve McIntyre 20:40 EDT 7 April 2017


 * I suspect that the to-be-finished larger "hospital" (plus whatever) is actually the al-Khazanat base (see below). The large structures don't seem to be created yesterday. Found some more info about the hostage-killing event in February (last link most relevant) at the former army underground refueling base, and the place was the headquarter of Liwa al-Aqsa, a super hardcore takfiri group affiliated with ISIS. After heavy infighting with Nusra they agreed to a deal and left to Raqqa, not before murdering 80 of their hostages from an "FSA" gang Jaish al-Nasr at some point supported by the US. Search for the hostages then took place on the 5km² large areal. It is planned to be taken over as base by Nusra (now known as Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham), says the February 22 article.
 * There's also the chance that the two are connected anyway as they are less than two kilometers away from each other--CE (talk) 03:26, 8 April 2017 (UTC)

I have collected 16 videos that show original footage from the compound into YouTube playlist. The videos are ordered by the approximate timeline. There are three different narratives or acts. I am not sure they can all play out on the same day. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 03:52, 8 April 2017 (UTC)

Kareem Shaheen of The Guardian has posted a video from the hospital cave from April 6th, two days after it was bombed. The place has been abandoned. I see no attempt to clean up after the blast. I am starting to think that the bombing was staged. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:47, 6 May 2017 (UTC)

Is this the al-Lataminah cave compound?

 * ''(No, it is not.)

Yes, the location of the White Helmets base must be the Al-Lataminah cave compound just south of Al-Lataminah. It was bombed by Russia on the first day of their campaign. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 17:25, 4 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Lataminah is about eight kilometers south-west of Khan Sheikhoun, I don't think the SAA would be confusing them. The thesis that it happened and was filmed earlier is interesting, though. FWIW, here's a marker on wikimapia in Khan Sheikhoun which is eight years old, on something that could be a small rocky formation, with the first comment reading autotranslated "Ohla Abu Yahya .. King of Khan Sheikun and neighboring areas, we forget the sweet days in the university city and the moments of land bread and the voice of the breads of the bread from the decks like Grad missiles atmosphere". --CE (talk) 19:02, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

...or did al-Lataminah move to Khan Sheikhoun
I just noticed Adam's blog post on the Alleged Chlorine Attack in Latamna. (I have been too busy following the spy drama at the White House to have time for Syria.) The photos could be from the Whora Hora base in Khan Sheikhoun and not from the al-Lataminah cave compound. The chlorine cylinder is the same as seen in this photo from the Khan Sheikhoun base. I thought I had geolocated the photo to the second south-facing entrance, just east of what we know is the White Helmets Field hospital. I suspect the photo with the fire truck could be at a west-facing entrance to the cave complex, at the old stone quarry to the west. (I suspected there would be another entrance, but did not have proof before.) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 00:30, 7 April 2017 (UTC)

...or is it Camp Khazanat?
Rescanning wikimapia following this morning's Konashenkov statement, on the eastern outskirts of the town there is a "Camp Khazanat Army fueling base" complete with "vehicle shelters" and "underground fueling storage" that looks like it could fit our "quarry" of interest. --CE (talk) 06:06, 5 April 2017 (UTC)


 * The facility in the videos shows the facility was surrounded by green fields. The Camp Khazanat Army fueling base is surrounded by olive groves
 * There are numerous limestone quarries around Khan Sheikhoun especially to the East and North. Some of them are surrounded by fields, not olive groves.
 * Ian Grant suggests this facility to east of Town is the site. He has a better resolution photo showing air-vents in the fields to the North of it. See His Tweet with image
 * The gas related attack occurred before dawn. The Russian attacks occurred 11:30 to 12:30 local time.
 * The SyAAF doesn't have a history of night operational sorties - with the exception of some L-39 flights that don't appear to be offensive in nature. --Charles Wood (talk) 06:47, 5 April 2017 (UTC)

No luck finding any visuals of the place so far, but I found this tweet from February 23, 2017 by @markito0171:
 * #Syria ~80 corpses found in fuel-tanks of Camp "Khazanat"/Khan Shaykhun -executed by "Liwa al Aqsa" before their retreat to #IslamicState

--CE (talk) 06:24, 5 April 2017 (UTC)
 * That does sound intriguing - and I was going to suggest the same spot before work, noting the underground storage notes. But ... --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:06, 5 April 2017 (UTC)
 * This may be video of the 80 bodies. Massacre tanks in Khan Shaikhoun (Feb 25, 2017) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:54, 5 April 2017 (UTC)

Having now looked, camp khazanat doesn't seem at all cliffy enough. And now I'm about 70% sure it's the Latamnah compound as Petri suggests. The images are afternoon sunlight. If that conflicts with anything, great. Otherwise, I wouldn't say people lived or were gassed here. It's supposed to have a hospital, and the victims seem trucked in. It's not so far from Khan Sheikhoun that doesn't make sense - this might be the best hospital around for CW victims (the mud bath by un-suited men isn't encouraging, but...) Graphic forthcoming. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:06, 5 April 2017 (UTC)

Here is a photo of the Al-Lataminah cave compound. I do not think they match. Besides, the Khan Sheikhoun caves must be facing south. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 11:04, 5 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Nice video find, Petri. I see nothing that would say it is NOT the place. It's a rather large area on the map, and they are on top of something. At 0:11 you can see that they are partly surrounded by the sort of green knolls we see in the event videos, and at 4:01 the camera goes over what seems to be a road carved into the surface through the whole picture, with people standing in front and behind it, and a higher structure to the left. Inside of that could be what we are searching for. Nothing definitive, but nothing to dismiss it either.
 * CL, your attempted match doesn't really convince me. The greens should be on different sides of the "road", the curves seem wrong, the buildings don't seem to match. --CE (talk) 14:38, 5 April 2017 (UTC)
 * I just noticed that all but one comment on the video are from the last 24 hours. I ran them through translation and they are all from knuckleheads cursing Assad in flowery poems, not realizing the date of the video. Somebody sells it as from the current "chemical weapons" event. --CE (talk) 15:07, 5 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Another video of the body recovery. At 0:29 a White Helmet is interviewed in front of a cliff similar to the White Helmets base. They could have come back to base for the interview. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 00:04, 6 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Okay, it seemed a good fit from the little I could see, but I guess it's not even that. The sun would be too low for that azimuth, come to think of it. I won't be digging for where this happened. It might be useful, but ... definitely too much going on. I'm skipping some stuff. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:18, 6 April 2017 (UTC)

Scene Overview
This is what video shows at around 6:30 to 7:00 am (possibly not of April 4, but...) I used Bellingcat's field-of-view study (see here), which seems accurate. Here, blue lines from the camera to each plume, pink circles for rough area of high-rising, high-explosives plumes, and red for the oddball white plume that might be some CW. Just where each is along the line of sight is a guess - it's set broadly (big ovals), but they could be closer or further out on their lines (the ovals are not angled right to follow the line, so image that.) The red circle may be more exact: it's a short cloud but seems to cast a shadow on the tel, so must be only a bit northeast of it, approximately at that (school?). Crater date I think is/will be explained. Hospital timeline explains that later blast. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:49, 11 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Bomb cloud sizes vary a lot. That could indicate either different size bombs or bombs that don't completely detonate. The really small one could be just the primer going off and not the main body. Of course a CW bomb is also an option but the variance in size should be considered.


 * Ultimately, actual fragments from the anomalous bomb will help resolve the question. They haven't been forthcoming, so the balance of uncertainty starts to favour a damp squib rather than a devil's brew. --Charles Wood (talk) 10:02, 11 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Agreed on smaller bomb/primer possibility. With fragments, there will be an issue of possession, that it's not cooked up--Resup (talk) 10:39, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

Amnesty upload time search indicates that video was posted before what we were told was the attack time ....--Resup (talk) 10:25, 11 April 2017 (UTC) Video ID: MYOMEDK_uVs Upload Date (YYYY/MM/DD): 2017-04-04 Upload Time (UTC): 04:59:28 (convert to local time)
 * Converting to local time means add 3 (2 for time zones, 1 for DST) giving 7:59, which is almost slow, but reasonable. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:03, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

Affected Homes
(allegedly anyway) So far we have three identified sites where families were said to live and be affected by the gas, and to largely die. So far these are all in a narrow north-south strip in the town's northeast. Counting north-to-south:

1) Commentator and now ACLOS member Andrew brought this up in comments at the Monitor blog (first comment here) - marked a bit incorrectly on the map above as 'basement.' That means the corner building the host of this video starts out standing at. But the door he takes us into is actually a bit east of that marker. The alleged sarin crater is about 115-120 meters E-NE of the correct spot. Better graphic and notes in a bit... --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:21, 1 May 2017 (UTC)


 * This is a bit rough, but they go in the door boxed in red. Sparse basement living area shown. The place looks pretty fancy, but the inside looks more like squatters, hostages, or just some bedding for show was here recently. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:24, 1 May 2017 (UTC)

2) ACLOS member Q located this and made the nice graphic - the corner building above boxed here in red - the home in question is south of that, marked here in green. Account details pending translation... --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:21, 1 May 2017 (UTC)


 * note: this one is not yet on the map shown above. It would be just south of "basement."
 * Added to the map now. --Caustic Logic (talk) 02:10, 7 May 2017 (UTC)

3) The furthest south is what a "white Helmets" volunteer claims as his family home, where his wife, children, nieces and nephews, brother and sister-in-law all or mostly died. Approximate location centered on Wikimapia, and shown on the map above. The alleged sarin crater is 275 meters to the north-northeast. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:21, 1 May 2017 (UTC)

See also below for three more identified homes a bit to the southwest of these. --Caustic Logic (talk) 02:10, 7 May 2017 (UTC)

Weather & gas extent
According to Intellicast, weather at Hama (close enough) had light winds from the East / East NE sector at 6 mph around dawn. --Charles Wood (talk) 20:49, 4 April 2017 (UTC) Deleted reference to incorrect intellicast wind data --Charles Wood (talk) 08:28, 1 May 2017 (UTC)


 * Postol assessment 041117.pdf States winds were blowing to South-East - away from inhabited areas. I have seen two different sources that indicate the winds had a Westerly component at 10m blowing towards inhabited areas. This is not withstanding the apparent easterly component of the first video bomb clouds which I put down to different wind direction above and below the inversion. --Charles Wood (talk) 18:41, 12 April 2017 (UTC)

I can find no historical weather data for Khan Sheikhoun or even Hama for April 4th. The nearest weather stations are at the airport in Latakia, in Qoubaiyat-Akkar in Lebanon, and in Cezayirlioglu Ciftligi in Turkey. All show north or southeasterly winds at 6:30 am on April 4th. The bomb blast video however shows the wind blowing from the west. Which makes on question if it was actually filmed at some earlier date. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 06:50, 14 April 2017 (UTC)

The nearest reliable data is METARS data from a number of Syrian airports OSLK/Latakia has winds blowing from the North East direction at 03:00 UTC. Other data is intermittent --Charles Wood (talk) 07:06, 14 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Other sources tend to be very unreliable and often are an interpolated value on a mesoscale grid. METARS are the gold standard. --Charles Wood (talk) 07:11, 14 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Also forgot to mention. Wind direction above and below an inversion can be wildly different. There would have been a strong inversion there assuming the light winds everyone seems to agree on. The general name for this phenomenon is backing and veering with altitude (certainly not an Eckman spiral as the armchair experts are wont to say). This is especially obvious when an inversion is present.


 * I noticed in the video a direction change on some bomb clouds with altitude. The 'kink' will be at the inversion level which would likely be under 100m and perhaps significantly lower. --Charles Wood (talk) 07:32, 14 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Visual assessment: in this video, the faintly yellowish gas plumes seem to me to be moving right to left, when facing south, which means from the west, roughly (about opposite of what the Hama records suggested). One apparent origin point seems to be a bit SW of town. Overall breeze might be a bit from the W-SW. Reviewing. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:19, 15 April 2017 (UTC)




 * I looked at the video. I didn't see any movement in the cloud/mist. The only clue is tapering of the density. I'm not sure that is a sound approach.


 * Re Hama weather data. It's one of several sources, none of them consistent. The only constants I have seen from the different sources is there is a component from the North and the wind speed is very low ~ 2 m/s


 * The good thing about your new video is the clouds appear to be below the inversion, so whatever they are doing it will be consistent across the field of view - unlike the bomb plumes which had a clear change in direction with altitude. --Charles Wood (talk) 12:37, 15 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Looking again, it's not as clear as it seemed, but I still see slight movement to the left, but it is roughly still. Definitely no movement the other way. Also, it may have drifted the other way earlier. Partly I'm thinking about origin areas. Above I noted the white cloud northeast of the tel. That is the same color as this. It might be what spread all to the left, and something spread a bit to the right along the tel's north face. Or maybe a similar cloud emerged at the crater area off the left side and drifted right, as the other's smoke drifted southwest behind the tel. There also seems to be a center of spread off to the southwest, right side distance, spreading west and northwest, split around a low hill, perhaps. Might be that impression making me see the consistent movement. --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:35, 17 April 2017 (UTC)

Color: I retract yellow-ish - I can't make out a color, even after enhancing it. This seems to be a widespread white fog. Is this sarin? It was said to smell bad, burn the eyes, and be yellow, but this seems white, though it might stink. I should think if this was all sarin, half the town would have died. So if not, could it be anything legit from the attack, or is it maybe the other, less toxic poison used? Or just some effects smoke to paint their picture of big sarin release? --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:35, 17 April 2017 (UTC)

Theodore Postol now says he had the weather data 180 degrees wrong. The wind was blowing from the east. See: -- Petri Krohn (talk) 15:27, 22 April 2017 (UTC)
 * With Error Fixed, Evidence Against ‘Sarin Attack’ Remains Convincing - ThuthDig, April 21, 2017


 * Well he is simply wrong. I explained elsewhere about this. Not only does the regional data disagree with him, the video evidence disagrees with him. In this video at 1:05 wind is blowing towards the rising sun i.e. from West to East (plus some not well seen North/South component). They very helpfully zoom in in the base of the cloud and so we know it's under the inversion and therefore highly relevant to ground level gas dispersion. --Charles Wood (talk) 20:42, 24 April 2017 (UTC)
 * OK, we've switched positions somewhat on the wind and disagreeing differently. That's the video I called unclear above. Better version. There's a definite shear to the left higher up (so east, towards the sun, but it seems past tense, now sitting still), but surface wind matters (as you've noted, and know more than I about). At the base, I'd say the direction is a bit to the left, so the east, and towards the camera. This seems to be looking a bit SE, so that I think makes it almost northerly wind (to the north). It doesn't seem strong. AND I'll add the main 3-plumes view shows about the same, if clearer - a bit left and towards the camera, looking almost due south. So that would seem well-founded, but...


 * here we face north-NW and the wind clearly moves to the left, away from the sun, so to the west or W-SW. And here (and odd view, possibly not connected) it's the same, facing NE, it rolls away and to the left. So seems like winds changed a lot, if these all show the same day - almost seems wind always move left, whether you're facing north or south. Is that even plausible (to have such variation in one short span)? But the predicted direction Postol used is pretty close to one of the seen directions. So ... I just switched my position again after noting the 3-plumes view - it seems like a tie, and both directions are right. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:39, 25 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Your video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHQA7hliJCY is obviously a different day. Wind much faster and heavy cloud in background. The clincher of course is it was uploaded on April 3
 * The second one also was uploaded in 3 April.


 * Regarding wind and elevation. It's entirely possible for the ground wind to be a significantly different direction to the winds higher above an inversion. There was an inversion in KS on the day. The winds were very light, so changes with direction with altitude are entirely possible, if not expected.


 * Getting onto Postol. He got the direction wrong by 180 degrees in his first go and managed to produce something looking authorative.
 * He then switched direction (as a result of my telling him of his error) and produced yet another authorative looking report.


 * I don't think either report is worth consideration. The data he uses is completely unreliable to start with and he makes conclusions he can't possibly make given the lack of data. At best it's a hypothetical / descriptive exercise but nothing of scientific or forensic merit for the facts on the day at Khan Sheikhoun. --Charles Wood (talk) 10:35, 25 April 2017 (UTC)


 * OK, sorry then - both were uploaded even Aug. 3 in Syria time - one about midnight (almost the 4th) and the other hours earlier. No wonder the winds were so different. Pretty consistent visual direction then, FWIW. And the basement home would be upwind from the crater. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:37, 25 April 2017 (UTC)

Wind Direction decided: Charles and I discussed this some, and I decided the winds is southwest, and blows TO the northeast, 45-50 degrees or, as this slightly too-early graphic shows, 45-55 with a broader range of 20 to 70 degrees possible. See Idlib Chemical Massacre: The When and Where for this and other geo-temporal findings. The significance of that to the alleged sarin spread to those homes is pretty evidently a mismatch. In fact, those homes are in exactly the opposite direction of the wind. That could be a total coincidence, or could actually be someone deciding where to say people died based it on an accurate wind reading - read backwards, like Postol did. --Caustic Logic (talk) 02:04, 7 May 2017 (UTC)

Good work, but I don't agree with this wind direction estimation. I can see some movement to the left in the video from the northern filming location, and there is also a strong movement to the right in the NYT video from the other filming location in the SW edge of the town. Any wind below 54° azimuth would cause the fume from the 2nd strike to move towards the left side in the NYT video, but we see the exact opposite. As I see it, the movement is more pronounced in the NYT video than in the other one, at least near the base of the plumes. Overall, the wind direction should be somewhere in the 68° - 144° range, likely closer to 144° than 68°. --Q (talk) 20:19, 9 May 2017 (UTC)
 * Was not following all details and getting a bit confused; do we know where cameras were, and how do we know that? Kobs placing one camera to the North--why? There are two different episodes in NYT video (below), which one we discuss? (first, 0:50, second, around 1:38). I propose to collect separately what is that we see in each case, and what else we know from elsewhere. I'd say, in both cases the Sun (=East, for simplicity) is to our left. That means, we are North from whatever we observe, in both episodes (in the second one, we are close to be looking at the Sun position, less so in the first episode). We see movement to the left (and apparently away) in the first episode, and to the right and definitely away in the second one. Do we observe the same thing? --Resup (talk) 23:37, 9 May 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I did not specify that I was talking about the part starting at 01:33 in the NYT video. The footage seen in first segment(at 00:50) was originally uploaded by a man named 'Mohammad Saloum', Bellingcat geolocated it, the northern camera position in Kobs's and CL's map refers to that video. The second segment in the NYT video contains 3 clips, all of them were filmed from the same location. The camera is facing NE in the first(01:33) and the third(01:44) clip, in the second clip(01:38) it's facing ESE, Kobs placed this camera on the W edge of the town. So, to reiterate what I said in my previous post, I see the fumes moving to the right in the NYT video at 01:33, I can also some movement to the left in this video in the same area, and based on these observations I place the wind direction in the 68° - 144° azimuth range. --Q (talk) 14:49, 10 May 2017 (UTC)
 * Curious what weather report gives (perhaps not observation based but anyway): 2 mph SE at 6 am (here seems consistent),  changing to stronger E/ENE wind past 9 am --Resup (talk) 16:07, 10 May 2017 (UTC)


 * It's not a weather report. It's computer generated data using a proprietary computer model operated by WWO See WWO FAQ. It turns out the model for KS is mostly based on data from Basel al-Assad airport about 60k West of KS. The airport is 350 m lower in elevation so a lot warmer, and the wind there was a 'land breeze' blowing straight out to sea due to temperature difference between sea and land (the opposite of a sea breeze).


 * Regional winds based on the European isobar map indicate very light air flow over all of Syria coming from the North. However, the wind speeds are so low local variations in just about any direction are possible. --Charles Wood (talk) 23:01, 10 May 2017 (UTC)

Also, it might be useful information that the bomb from the second strike most likely exploded in closed space, see image. video from inside, video from outside(at 01:18). The fumes from this explosion could only leave the room through the door/window in the northern side, or through the hole in the ceiling. I'm not sure how these circumstances affected the shape of the second plume, but I think the fumes raised with more power initially because all the trapped hot air in the room wanted to escape through one exit point. --Q (talk) 20:42, 9 May 2017 (UTC)

Fog?
Crude (and possibly nonsensical) estimate: estimate drop size by the condition that wind drag on spherical droplet is roughly equal gravity force ; obtain radius r = (3/4) D (v^/(2g)) (rho_a/rho_sar) ~ 0.03 mm (too small ? or what? ). Then take 'fog' of visible size L to mean that on distance L you are sure to hit q ~ 1  droplet. That means, L Pi r^2 (N/V) ~ q, with N = V_sar/(4/3 pi r^3) and V ~ L^2 h, h --fog height. That gives, L~V_sar/(4/3 r h q); taking V_sar of 0.25 m^3, h = 15 m, q=1, gives L < = 400 m = visible fog size of ODAB 500 converted to CW. (Any better ideas about such sort of estimate?). I think we see some 1-1.5 km of fog on the vids (Alternative to that is to see attenuation length of water at size L, but that is some 20 meters of water to be seen, and will not work at all, unless sar is much more absorbent than water. So, decided that hitting few scatters means opaque enough. Unsure what proffi do here)
 * If only 1/2 of 250 or so liters goes up the air, and 2 scatters needed for opaque, get L~ 100 m, etc... --Resup (talk) 17:36, 10 May 2017 (UTC)
 * (In reality, more complicated; this estimates size of droplets which will drop down, really, smaller ones may still float, this is saying those are comparable, Will look more into this when will get some time; if there are better ideas, appreciated. Have seen sizes 50 micrometers for initial ice particles sizes in clouds, this is comparable; but sarin will stay liquid. For water, somehow it takes -40 C for droplets to uniformly freeze, otherwise phases will coexist)--Resup (talk) 09:30, 11 May 2017 (UTC)

New York Times video
The New York Times has done good work matching photographs of bomb damage to fresh satellite images. Their key claim is fraudulent. The witness who made this video says the Syrian jet dropped four bombs. NYT agrees. They match three blasts to photos from the ground. They then claim: "More video from that day show a fourth strike nearby. We don't see the strike in the first video, but we know the crater is new because it was not there in earlier satellite photos." The "video from that day" clearly show the fourth strike in question happened nowhere near the crater. Yet they use the witness testimony of four bombs and video of a fourth blast as proof that a Syrian bomb created the crater. This is fraud! -- Petri Krohn (talk) 05:06, 3 May 2017 (UTC)
 * How Syria and Russia Spun a Chemical Strike - The New York Times, April 26, 2017 (video)


 * The NYT video rubbishes the Russian statement of a bomb run between 11:30 and 12:30. What the NYT doesn't do is reference the two different videos from the cave complex about that time showing bombs being dropped - confirming the Russian statement of a bombing raid on teh Eastern outskirts.


 * Separately, I have read but can't find the reference that there were two bomb runs in the early morning with a total of six bombs dropped. I'm unsure if that was two aircraft, or the same aircraft doing two bomb runs. --Charles Wood (talk) 05:22, 3 May 2017 (UTC)

BBC link victims to houses

 * ''Moved from Talk:Alleged Chemical Attack Khan Sheikhoun 4 April 2017/Victims

Short BBC clip showing victims and walk-through by one victim 'Abo Rabeeea' showing the relationship of his house to other named victims Syria 'gas attack' victim: 'I can't sleep' --Charles Wood (talk) 05:07, 4 May 2017 (UTC)


 * I have a good idea where the old man's house is, but the video is cut in a very weird way, I'll work on it a bit later. According to him, the dead kids were around the same place as one of airstrikes. The name "Amira Saleh" sounds suspiciously similar to the name of the mother in this family(Amira/Ameerah = Abeerah?). If they are the same person, it would be interesting to see how the kids ended up at that place, common sense tells me that they should have ran away from the fume, not towards the middle of it. --Q (talk) 15:52, 4 May 2017 (UTC)


 * The BBC clip was indeed cut in a retarded way(seriously, why?), so I made an image to make its understanding easier. The old man seems to have some medical condition that causes amnesia/loss of orientation. I still find it interesting that there were unconscious bodies ~320m SW of the claimed chemical attack crater, and apparently the old man was also in that area when he started to feel dizzy. --Q (talk) 23:05, 4 May 2017 (UTC)
 * BBC clip starts from showing him 'returning to the scene' (possibly not his house), so I guess this is what you geolocated, 'the scene'? May be good to add a link with location on interactive map like google/yandex so geolocation can be checked by somebody having doubts but not the time to do it oneself. 320 meters SW from crater may be not much affected. At last in one version, wind is from S-SW making this place upwind. Downwind strongly affected area was estimated at 50-200 meters (reliability of that is uncertain, but being upwind and far amplify each other in having little effect)
 * Wonder do we know where is his house relative to crater ? (BBC shows him entering his house after a cut, so probably not. He stayed in the house for a long time after feeling dizzy elsewhere; so house must be in unaffected area).  --Resup (talk) 00:00, 5 May 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I totally forgot to add the locations to the page, thank you for mentioning that. The clip has some erratic storytelling with no clear beginning and end, I'm not even sure whether the path they took (marked with the white line in the map) is the same as Abo Rabeeea's route on that day, or it's just an arbitrary one. In any case it sounds like the old man first went to the place of the second "airstrike", probably just to check out what happened. There he saw the kids (dead? unconscious? struggling?), but soon he started to feel dizzy so he headed home, and just as he arrived, he lost consciousness. His home is actually pretty close to the closest (allegedly) affected home we know of (~50m), but his exposure to the chemicals happened (started, at least) at the other place, also ~320-340m from the crater. If he took the BBC route, then he stayed more than 300m away from the crater for the entire duration of his journey. --Q (talk) 10:06, 5 May 2017 (UTC)

Who is Abu al-Baraa? Kareem Shaheen of The Guardian claims he spoke to him. Note, that Amira / Ameerah = al-Meerah ~ Abeerah ~ al-Baraa. The "L" is not pronounced when it precedes a consonant. Instead it adapts the same sound. -- 10:10, 6 May 2017 (UTC)