Talk:Torture Photos from "Caesar"/Photo Timeline

Folder Dates
The point of this sub-page is setting a timeline for the photos, and central to that is the dates given in "folder" names. These aren't folders of photos we can access, just ones apparently created once by "Caesar" (whoever exactly that is) and now reflected in "photo original name" with each SAFMCD entry. HRW apparently saw the files as insiders have, in Caesar's own file system, and call the dates folders ("so and so's photos were in a folder dated this month, which fits with what people told us ...").

I wish we had something better. The dates given ate just given - not even proven accurate. But they do make basic sense, and I suppose 2-2013 is probably a folder created on, or referring to, February, 2013. Just what was put in it is another story, but the starting presumption is photos from around that time. "Around" in what sense isn't totally clear - before or after?
 * Is it a no-later than date for a person's death? (photos he collects that day, taken on days up to that point, starting probably from the end of his last collection)
 * Is it an earliest date? (the date he starts collecting photos (on a recurring basis?), up to the start of the next folder)

I thought the first option made more sense, and the answer could even be mixed, But two cases suggest it's the date he started a folder, or maybe the start date of a covered span ina folder he creates later.
 * Ayham Ghazoul, said to die on day 5 of detention, November 9, 2012. (HRW report) His photo is dated 1-11-2012.
 * Ahmad Musalmani, allegedly arrested from a checkpoint on August 2, 2012 (HRW report) is listed as j-1129, folder date 1-8-2012.

So the basic presumption is the date means photo added after the given date, and I guess prior to the next folder.

Dates are vague/sporadic: 5-2012. 000. Etc. There's no folder for each day, and in most cases not even for each month. A good 90-95% of victims by bulk are collected in these primary folders, with only a few smaller ones in between or earlier:
 * 1-8-2012
 * 1-11-2012
 * 1-2013
 * 2-2013
 * 3-2013
 * 4-6-2013
 * 24-6-2013
 * 7-7-2013
 * 26-7-2013
 * 14-8-2014

Two points stand out for have an extra wide gap between two extra big folder, with an unclear cut-off point between them. These are between August and November, 2012, and March and June, 2013.

The final folder, August 14, will cover just the last few days until "Caesar's" defection, reportedly on August 20. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:24, 1 March 2016 (UTC)

Graphic aid: seen hospital numbers plotted by matching SAFMCD entry's folder date.

Summer Oddities
In the graphic above, some confusing points in the second half.
 * 24-6 and 7-7's covered spans overlap, suggesting all those were available earlier, but the last ones only gathered later
 * A folder 6-2013 in 215 at least includes entry numbers higher than those in 26 July, but lower than 14 August. Is that really just June, when high-number guys were killed early, when there's already a huge June 4 and 24 folder and at least a 27 as well? Maybe they meant 6-8-2013? That's about where it should be. I went ahead and mapped it like that above.
 * At least branch 215 and 216 have their 26-7 and 7-7 folder backwards as far as victim order compared to the norm there. Is that maybe them meaning 2-7? Or was that an actual effort to make some prisoners - a whole folder's worth - out of sequence? (that would be to support the argument these are prisoner numbers). Notice the H#s mapped above continue properly between these 2 folders. So it doesn't seem to be an honest mistake with a folder for July 2. They got the contents backwards, totally, in at least two branch cases. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:51, 2 March 2016 (UTC)

AF Intel Profile
This is the first branch folder I completely processed - all 350 photos included correlated with the info they have, and so I can make authoritative statements about what's in there. numbers said to be issued by them are prefixed j, from the Arabic word for Air Force. Some of the few j-series numbers represented are among those 133 or more apparently concocted, by re-branding the hospital number (seems to mean "unidentified body," not coded prisoner) as a supposed ID number in one or another of several MI branches. Explained here. j-1129, HRW's profiled teenage victim Ahmad Musalmani, is included in that pattern.

J-Jumps First, the alleged prisoner numbers range wildly here, from 000 (several cases, maybe errors, etc.) to just over 9700. This implies they alone had arrested that many people prior to mid-August, 2013. We can only say they allegedly killed ... less than 350 (duplicates, count still in progress) out of this, maybe more but no others appear in the "Caesar" released set as shown on the SAFMCD site.

What's weird is the spread - I have a graphic in the works but mainly they pick groups numbered right around the 1000 or 100 mark. It's a bit muddled at the low end, but here's the pattern from 2000 onward:
 * 2026-2313 = 60 out of 288 killed
 * 2324-3026 = none at all included
 * 3026-3189, = 35/163 (inc 1 dup)
 * 3190-5005 total gap
 * 5006-5063 = 11/58
 * another gap, almost 2,000 #s wide
 * 7016-7027, 3/12
 * gap
 * 8005-8093 = 40/89
 * gap
 * 9013-9246 = 105 / 234 (nearly half of these killed and show)
 * gap
 * 9500-9508 = 9/9 killed and shown
 * gap
 * 9700-9704 = 5/5 included


 * graphic added: red bars are where ID #s appear, gray spans are where none do - except the 3,000s, which I somehow missed (revision coming) --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:02, 2 March 2016 (UTC)

The huge implied numbers of prisoners in between these number sets - not clear what the alleged story is there. Maybe they were killed and sent elsewhere, sent here but not included somewhere along the line, spared, killed later, etc. With alleged numbers so huge, surely the allegation would be some mix of fates. But it almost seems like those at the top of each page or whatever definitely got picked for decimation, from narrow bands totally killed to wider ones picked-off to varying degrees. Allegedly. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:35, 1 March 2016 (UTC)

Prisoner # Assignation Order They say prisoner # is assigned in order of arrest or transfer - and I presumed it would be assigned sequentially - 215, 216, 227, at least (about 90% of all photos between these) seem to go sequentially - All 1240s-1260s, for example, must have all been arrested around the same time, and we can see they're almost universally recorded as killed around the same time.

But apparently not by AF Intel. They at least have a whole different alleged logic it's hard to grasp. I found so far 5 Prisoner #s attached. to AF Intel, all but #2 from HRW report (4 of their 8 profiles were from AF intel, way out of proportion), in what should be chronological order.
 * 1) 1129 = 2012-08-02 2 August 2012 - Ahmad Mussalmani - issued on arest by AF Intel this day, killed quickly, in 1-8 folder (must be start date as with A. Ghazoul in 1-11) - j-1129-1-8-2012 (1)-026668
 * 2) 1958 = 2012-07 - Mr. Abdul Wahab, arrested May 23, 2012, transferred to AF Intel around July 14, released Sept. 2 (SNHR report)
 * 3) 8025 = 2012-03-28 or soon after - Oqba al-Mashaan - "The folder they appear in is marked March 2013, a year from the date of his arrest." - j-8025-3-2013 (1)-451848
 * 4) 9189 = 2013-01 - Khalid Hadla - "Air Force Intelligence officers arrested Khalid in January 2013 during a raid on his home, while his wife and children watched" - not dated, Daraya, clashes had both sides in control at different times that month "The photo was in a folder dated June 4, 2013, about five months after Khalid’s arrest." - j-9189-4-6-2013 (1)-506879
 * 5) ja-001 (issued later than the last?) = 2013-02 - Osama Hussein Salim, Palestinian from Yarmouk, accountant at Damascus University - arrested by PFLP-GC "around 10 a.m. on February 24, 2013" transfer unclear, killed within the month. "Osama’s body has the words “Air Force Administrative Branch” written in marker on his abdomen." (hence the "a") ja-001-2-2013 (2)-944416 --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:35, 1 March 2016 (UTC)


 * These 5 are included in the graphic above on the ID# scale, with arrest date (blue line) vs. death/shown/folder date (red), except for the guy who says he was just released (no red line). Consistently, his stated number is NOT in any of the kill zones. Did he know what he was talking about here? --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:54, 2 March 2016 (UTC)

Prisoner Kill Order It's also evident the numbers do not tick up chronologically with this branch, but follow their own weird pattern. Again, appearing in a folder means killed and shown, while not appearing can mean a few things. But in each folder, representatives of each of these little red groups appear. In each folder, no one from the gray spans in between does. So the reason for that is ongoing. '''It's almost as if they decided on this narrow killing in advance, and worked on it a bit each month. And had the full number range already filled from the start.'''

For one example, a heavy date, January 2013. That month this is the list of prisoner numbers that appear.

002

953 1113 1117 1118 1121 1123 1130

2120 2128 2131 2133 2132 2133 2138 2146 2173

3059 3070 3072 3075 3084

4012

5015

7016 7017

8012 8015.

Everyone else was spared/sent elsewhere or photo not collected/not shared/who knows. It's the same pattern month after month, a few others from each red span, none from the gray, until this pattern is filled in. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:43, 2 March 2016 (UTC)

216 Profile
216 - patrols Branch SAFMCD folder 297 photos

This is a total kill branch - little concern with interrogation, individual case details, etc., just with exterminating people. 297 photos minus (2+ duplicates, 2 hsopital # insertions) = 293 or so. I have this folder mostly processed, emphasis on the early and late ends. I don't think victim numbers run any higher than 384. Only 2 higher #s appear, 692 and 693, being the hospital number insertions, all alone in mid-2012, when apparently no one else was killed until November. In 1-11 are the lowest numbers seen, a lonely 14, then 45, 47, 49, 51, 52, and getting more solid. So at least 43 missing numbers at the start. Each month, generally the numbers go up. Minimum number range for each (not all slots in between are filled)
 * 1-11-2012 includes up to #74
 * 1-2013 includes #s 77-101,
 * 2-2013 104-127
 * 3-2013 includes #136 137 138
 * 4-6-2013: 132 133 (late) and #150-221
 * 7-6: 242, 245
 * 24-6: 254 - 310
 * 7-7 338 - 351
 * 26-7 314 - 337
 * 000: 353-363
 * 14-8: 364-384

(note: 7-7 and 26-7 seem to be in the wrong order - 215 at least has the same issue. This will be addressed above under folder dates.)

At least 384 assigned prisoner numbers - 293 or so photographed victims = 91 numbered prisoners, at least, who were not killed and shown. $3 of these are in the range 1-44, the rest spread around in smaller, unclear gaps. But they killed at least 293 of perhaps no more than 384 people they arrested. Might be a 76% kill rate or closer to 99%, depending, and it was mainly sequential - killed in about the same order arrested. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:24, 2 March 2016 (UTC)