Talk:US airstrike on ISIS Hunters, February 7, 2018

Russian contractors killed in US-led coalition strike

 * ''Moved from Talk:Syria news/Current

According to Strelkov source, Wagner group sustained heavy losses in the US-led coalition strike on Feb. 7. He says (on social media) that Wagner's 5th assault detachment, armored group and artillery unit were destroyed in the vicinity of the village of Khsham(Хишам, Rus.), near Deir ez-Zor and Al Isba oil plant (google/satellite, two or more sites, on the road from Khsham to Al Isba) (No further definite factual details provided)--Resup (talk) 11:05, 10 February 2018 (UTC)

In his new post, .''..at the moment it is clear that there are hundreds of dead and wounded. A few hundred''. (Some concrete initial numbers are provided but those do not appear definite, and the very latest number, exceeding the reported number of people in the convoy, appears exaggerated--unless it was not a bigger under-reported event. This latest number is 'from Syria', but can be a 'disinformation'). --Resup (talk) 20:02, 10 February 2018 (UTC)

Unconfirmed details posted by a user, said to be audio and transcript of Wagner fighters discussing the event (column attacked on march, their artillery suppressed by drones, artillery strike followed by helicopters strike (and Lockheed AC-130 Spectre, in another unconfirmed report). They did not have anti-aircraft weaponry, not even MANPADS; number of killed said to be around two hundred, all from the 5th detachment and some others too. Those details are unverified, but pretty consistent among several such sources (similar account of events also seen elsewhere).  --Resup (talk) 20:55, 10 February 2018 (UTC) The user, as well as Cassad, attribute the story and audios to telegram channel of war correspondent Semen Pegov. Cassad also links "Funeral of 14 Syrians killed by US AF in Deir Ezzor" --Resup (talk) 21:37, 10 February 2018 (UTC)

Easy audio playback version is on this pro-Ukrainian youtube. Fox News report, with coalition report on the attack and air power involved, here (probably stock footage and talk)--Resup (talk) 05:19, 11 February 2018 (UTC)

Rusnext version, Много погибших: опубликована информация о массированном ударе США и курдов по позициям российских ЧВК, 10 February, 2018 (in addition to what's said elsewhere reports some numbers of Syrian casualties, said to be 30 confirmed so far, with names and photos; those details are not provided however) --Resup (talk) 08:49, 11 February 2018 (UTC)

In a rare mentioning in established media, business oriented "Vzgliad" reports a similar account based on own sources, but puts the number of killed at 15-25, and some 50 wounded --Resup (talk) 22:25, 10 February 2018 (UTC)

Vzgliad now published Semen Pegov account (large losses).

WaPO version, 'In Syria, Russian bad faith turns fatal', by David Ignatus, Washington Post, 9 February, 2018

Implications of those events are not clear. Major Russian media does not report this, so Russia is not after an escalation. But with those details now known and broadly discussed, authorities may have to do something about it (possibly talking it down, not escalating, by capability and interests combined. But remains to be seen. --Resup (talk) 23:02, 10 February 2018 (UTC)

For some background, see here.


 * According to Western-owned Fontanka.ru PMC Wagner Russian contractors were originally employed in Syria around 2013 to guard oil and gas installations - except they would first have to free the installations from al-Nusra / ISIS. Moon of Alabama posted this two days ago:
 * ''Other sources say that there have been talks between Wagner and locals Arabs guarding the currently unproductive "Conoco" oil and gas field operation near the town of Khisham.
 * -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:08, 10 February 2018 (UTC)

I predict 200 Americans will die in some mysterious accident. Maybe Pakistani aid defenses will shoot down a plane carrying U.S. troops or contractors to Afghanistan. Maybe an Iranian oil tanker will hit and sink a U.S. Navy ship. PMC Wagner will pay a $10 million reward to whoever caused the accident. The Russian Federation will deny all knowledge or responsibility. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 11:28, 11 February 2018 (UTC)

It's not actually clear why it happened, as there are deconflicting mechanisms, and said to be actual contacts and Western warnings prior to all this. It may be one of 3 things: (1) lack of communication (or care) between Russian MoD and PMC, inadequate preparation of PMC, etc (2) intentional, on the US-led coalition side, some sort of entrapment to continue the well-known Western line, similarly to what can be read on MoA (3) intentional, on the Russian side, similar to destruction of a Russian tank column in Groznyi which triggered an outrage in (generally, liberal) Russian government and public opinion and led to the full scale first Russian-Chechen war, although prior to that Chechen demands were quite moderate; similar theoires can be read in the present day context e.g. on kasparov.ru  and similar pro-Western Russian opposition resources. Here, possibly just trying to get control of oil resources, despite current US-Kurdish control and a deconfliction agreement in the Euphrates valley (mentioned in Tillerson speech at Hoover), not seeking a wider conflict, if possible. --Resup (talk) 13:17, 11 February 2018 (UTC)

Confirmation that at least some Russian contractors died from RIA via Fort Russ: US airstrike in Syria kills former defender of Donbass + some more names here. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:35, 12 February 2018 (UTC)

Some deaths confirmed on social media
--Resup (talk) 21:20, 13 February 2018 (UTC)
 * Ananiev Kirill, former DPR opolchenie, one of the leaders of a leftist unregistered party 'Another Russia', a 'natsbol' (NBP)(photo).
 * Ladygin Aleksey ('Khmuryi'), from Ryazan', 31 May 1991 DOB (photo)
 * Loginov Vladimir Nikolaevich, a Cossack centurion, from a Cossack settlement "Pregolsky" (photos 1, 2).
 * Igor Kosoturov, Stanislav Matveev. Local Duma deputy of the Asbest city district (Sverdlovsk region) Natalia Krylova confirmed the reports of the death of Syria in the Deir-ez-Zor area of two residents of Asbest city . "Yes, I confirm, (died) on February 7)," she told TASS.

Zakharova: 5 Russians may be killed (По предварительным данным, в результате произошедшего вооруженного столкновения, причины которого сейчас выясняются, речь может идти о гибели 5 человек, предположительно граждан России. ) More names appeared in social media(verification uncertain, as claimed by sources)

More CIT claims

 * Alexey Shihov, Nizhnii Novgorod, 13.10.91 (CIT)(el-Murid)
 * Oleg Tereschenko, 01.10.82, resident of the village of Krylov, Krasnodar Region. Killed on February 7, in Deir ez Zor (CIT) (el-Murid)(photo from here)
 * Ruslan Gavrilov (03.08.1983), the village of Kedrovoye in the Sverdlovsk Region. Killed on February 7, in Deir ez Zor (CIT)(el-Murid)
 * Vladimir 'Apostol' (CIT)

Noted: CIT once called Bellingcat their 'colleague', and claims made by them now are poorly sourced. --Resup (talk) 22:45, 15 February 2018 (UTC)

Discussion of analysis
Basic facts for analysis are not established or disputed. What is known is that some pro-Assad force attacked and was hit by coalition from the air (coalition estimate is 100 killed). Former Donbass opolchenie sources (including Strelkov) made a claim that 'Russian' forces were involved in unofficial capacity and those forces sustained heavy losses (with lower yet heavy losses claimed later). Russian government maintained (both before and after the attack) that their forces, or those they control, were not involved, and sought to show that losses were much smaller than originally claimed, while accepting that some Russians could be killed. In such a set-up, it is unclear how one can actually do 'analysis', as opposed to some spin supporting a preferable conclusion or side in those claims. There is no particular need for analysis of this event as such, IMO, apart from establishing facts of this event, in as much as possible; analyzing without facts is essentially spin, and is neither predictive nor historic, so why to even do it in this way? --Resup (talk) 08:17, 16 February 2018 (UTC)

Tsarev comment: (1)makes sense (war time censorship is normal); (2) also, technically, revealing accurate info on true losses outside of the official channels (as opposed to guessing/estimating/providing an opinion/etc) will be illegal in Russia (even in peace time), as far as I recall from media coverage of this topic on a previous occasion--Resup (talk) 12:35, 17 February 2018 (UTC)

Propaganda/Spin
There is of course a nonzero probability that a successful fake was planted onto Strelkov, but chances of that are rather low (there would be Donbass veterans and they would  know each other for a while, with a code of proper conduct, etc). It's also possible that numbers are inaccurate, like 'fog of war' thing, one detachment staying in the wait on the outskirts was dispersed by airstrike but the actual fate of those people is not exactly known. From Khrustalik interview, 11 people in/on top/near BDRM vehicle (with a standard crew of 4) were killed by the very first strike, and then some tried to disperse (including the man he interviewed), unclear how successfully.

However, there is also a very clear attempt to suppress or downplay this, (+ going after the messenger sort). Something like Southfront take on February 14, 2018, if they have an idea of realities involved here--and I assume that they do--belongs mostly to spin/propaganda, IMHO. --Resup (talk) 22:13, 14 February 2018 (UTC)

...and zero to do with Israel, Wagner (said to be after the composer) is call sign of Dmitry Utkin (said to be Ukrainian) used in Donbass, and discussed from the time his PMC was suspected of hits on popular commanders L/DPR commanders (Batman especially). In Syria, 'Wagner' is a collective name for anything similar, PMC-like, not necessarily his group in person --Resup (talk) 11:46, 15 February 2018 (UTC)

PMC Wagner = ISIS Hunters?
There is no proof that a Russian mercenary battalion ever operated on Syria, even less in Deir ez-Zor. There are no photographs of them even when we see thousands of photographs from the front lines from pro-Russian social media accounts like @IvanSidorenko1. The first time we hear of 700 Russian operating as a unit is after they have supposedly died.

ISIS Hunters is assumed to be Russian-trained and maybe partly under Russian command. There are photographs of ISIS Hunters and Russians together. It is far more likely that the few Russians involved were part of ISIS Hunters. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 14:12, 15 February 2018 (UTC)

ISIS Hunters are some local faces mostly for media presentation. Otherwise photos and videos are banned, Khrustalik interview tells that programs are installed in their (PMC's) cell phones to prevent recording. Talking to press is banned too, so no full details in those leaked accounts. PMC use in Syria is talked about well before this attack, and those few names identified as killed were there in PMC sort capacity (not a regular military, yet fighting). ISIS Hunters may be fighting too, and having losses, but in the group discussed in Russian sources there were no (or very few) Syrians --Resup (talk) 14:30, 15 February 2018 (UTC)

@IvanSidorenko1 should be the best source for information on ISIS Hunters and Russians in Syria. Today he published tens of photos from a funeral of one Orthodox Christian ISIS Hunters member. Yet he seems to have no knowledge of the 700 Russians, dead or alive. He did publish a translation of one Facebook post by Михаил Полынков, but he says his source was actually #JihadiJulian Julian Röpcke. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 19:59, 15 February 2018 (UTC)
 * But neither Sidorenko nor anybody else reports on the funerals of at least 5 (and more) confirmed Russian deaths. Attributing Khrustalik to Ropcke is a spin (suggesting lack of true independence, if anything). --Resup (talk) 22:13, 15 February 2018 (UTC)

Subsequent reports

 * Fifteen Russian security staff killed in Syria explosion -The Guardian, February 15, 2018 (quoting SOHR, unverified)--Resup (talk) 16:56, 15 February 2018 (UTC)