Khakovka Dam collapse

Dam background

 * Wikipedia: Khakovka Dam
 * Wikipedia: North Crimean Canal

Event, Immediate aftermath - June 6, 2023

 * Video: Zoka's channel on Telegram - June 6, 2023

Prior incidents/speculation

 * In southern Ukraine, Russian forces guard strategic dam - AFP, May 23, 2022
 * AFP visited the site of the Kakhovka power station and dam as part of a press tour organised by the Russian army, accompanied at all times by Russian soldiers armed with machine guns.Even though it is located away from the front line that runs further north, Russians vigilantly guard the strategic site that they say has been subject to attempts at "sabotage". "There were attempts to bring in explosive substances, but they were all thwarted," says Vladimir Leontyev, a Russia-appointed head of the civil and military administration of the Kakhovka district.


 * Russians cover their movements using civilian transport at Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant - Pravda.ua, August 6, 2022
 * The bridge in the area of Kakhovka Hydro Power Plant is no longer suitable for use – OC “South” - Miltarnyl, August 10, 2022
 * As previously reported, the Defense Forces of Ukraine continue to attack bridges in the area of occupied Kherson. On August 8, they yet again targeted the Antonivskyi bridge and the dam in Nova Kakhovka.


 * Ukrainian forces struck bridge over dam in Nova Kakhovka - Ukrinform, August 12, 2022
 * Ukraine says it has taken out vital bridge in occupied Kherson - BBC News, August 13, 2022
 * The destruction of the road bridge of the Nova Kakhovka dam was ensured, with the result that it was taken out of operation," the Ukrainian army's Operational Command South posted to Facebook.


 * Fake: Russian Specialists to Modernize Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, Raise Capacity by 30% - StopFake, August 9, 2022
 * TASS, RT, Rambler, Nikolayevsky Vestnik, Kherson News all carried stories promising a 30% increase in power capacity after Russian specialists finish their “modernization” of the Kahkhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant.


 * Ukrainian forces keep shelling Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant — official - Tass, September 3, 2022
 * MLRS Himars fired a record number of missiles at Novaya Kakhovka overnight - Avia.pro, September 6, 2022
 * Factbox-Is the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine About to Be Blown? - Reuters, October 21, 2022
 * People endure daily shelling in Nova Kakhovka - Reuters Videos, October 31, 2022
 * Ukraine's Russian-held Nova Kakhovka dam damaged in shelling, Russian media report - Reuters, November 6, 2022
 * Explainer: Could Ukraine’s Kakhovka Dam Be Destroyed in Russia’s Kherson Retreat? - James Beardsworth, Moscow Times, November 10, 2022 (Updated Nov, 30)
 * New damage to major dam near Kherson after Russian retreat - Maxar satellite - Reuters, November 11, 2022
 * @EUFreeCitizen - RV journalists confirmed the blowing up of the bridge across the #Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station... November 12, 2022


 * Inside the Ukrainian counteroffensive that shocked Putin and reshaped the war - Isabelle Khurshudyan, Paul Sonne, Serhiy Morgunov and Kamila Hrabchuk, The Washington Post, December 29, 2022
 * Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages. The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort. He held off.


 * Russia is draining a massive Ukrainian reservoir, endangering a nuclear plant - Geoff Brumfiel, Connie Hanzhang Jin, Jacob Fenton, Meredith Rizzo, Julian Hayda, NPR, February 10, 2023
 * About the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric station ( Chronology ) - Russian Foreign Ministry, June 10, 2023

Russian accusations

 * Knew About Kiev's Plan to Attack Kakhovka Dam, Refused to 'Stop It' - Russian Diplomat - Sputnik, June 15, 2023

Possible causes

 * Industry specialists assess damage on Ukraine’s breached Nova Kakhovka dam - ROB HAKIMIAN, New Civil Engineer, 08 JUN, 2023
 * Investigating the source of the damage further, Barr added: “The water level was at a record high before the breach, but usually a failure caused by overtopping in a dam like this would initiate on the earthen embankments and not on the reinforced concrete spillway, which is designed to manage regular discharges of water. If the sluice gates had been damaged leading to an uncontrolled discharge of water, this wouldn't be expected to cause the progressive collapse of the main concrete structure without significant additional damage elsewhere.” These factors have led Barr to support the claims that the failure was initiated by an explosion, though the subsequent damage is likely to have removed the evidence.

Storm Shadow Missiles

 * Did Russia Destroy The Nova Kakhova Dam? - Moon of Alabama, June 13, 2023

Analysis

 * Nova Kakhova Dam Breach - Updated (12:15 UTC) - Moon of Alabama, June 6, 2023
 * OVERVIEW OF ATTACK ON KAKHOVKA DAM: CUI BONO? - SouthFront, June 6, 2023
 * Russo-Ukrainian War: Dam! A different kind of leak - Big Serge, June 7, 2023
 * Postmortem Analysis on Kakhovka Dam Breach - Simplicius The Thinker, June 7, 2023
 * What Caused the Collapse of the Nova Kakhovka Dam? - Monitor on Massacre Marketing, Adam Larson, July 13, 2023