Talk:Houla, May 25: Who Was in Control?

Video Analysis: RPG-firing rebel
Later note: The following will be / is being moved to the new page Houla: Saad Street RPG Incident Should I strike-out, delete, leave, or what? --Caustic Logic 21:47, 15 October 2012 (EST)


 * You could just move the whole discussion to Talk:Houla: Saad Street RPG Incident. In fact, I just did that. -- Petri Krohn 09:52, 17 October 2012 (EST)

Hospital burning?
(moved here as it's too questioned to be on the main page (good work, CE!) I run ahead too much sometimes. I'll at least re-write it as a view since it has a time frame and some evidentiary value at least)
 * modified and re-inserted into the page. --CE 23:59, 10 October 2012 (EST)

It was claimed by alleged witnesses "Arifah" and Anonymous (from Kafr Laha) that rebel forces set fire to the national hospital and the woods behind it. These and other claims and evidence have it that the homes in which massacres occurred, plus apparently others, and their crops of many, were burned as well. as well as the crops, and the. All this in Taldou is sure to have some smoke rising in the south of town. An opposition video from late afternoon on May 25 ( app.6:30-7:00PM ) (around 4:15-4:45 PM, sun roughly due west), shows that. Posted by alhoula samer, it looks southeast over the south end of town, to the giant water tower by the elevated "water company" forward Army base. In the span between, huge plumes of smoke rise from something on the same visual line with the National Hospital or the Al-Sayed crime scenes. One dense plume is pouring from a raging but unseen fire, apparently contained inside a building, and it seems to be the large one in the center that can only be the hospital (note its smaller water tower to the left - it doesn't look quite right, but all else suggest that's what it must be, and placed right).

Less visible in the still here, but evident in the video, is a lesser source of smoke, apparently a bit to the south of there. That suggests, in addition, fires in the open (crops or more likely trees). The area of filming seems to be, roughly, the building in the center here. It's eerily silent at that point but for birds, whose chirping suggests relief at the lack of previous massive noises. According to the video poster, the smoke is apparently caused by shelling, not arson, that came from the Army post he was pointing at. More massacres and fighting would occur some hours later.


 * Thanks, CE. Excellent save. Was surprised to see the picture and text there. Swift work. Will double-check the Main Street part tonight, your graphic, and some variations. --Caustic Logic 10:04, 11 October 2012 (EST)


 * Good work including the open-area smoke clues. Wherever we're looking it's a clue. Laying out the scene, I just now noticed an issue with the hills and why parts are strangely dark. Two big patches of field burnt? One is adjacent to the water company base, the other north of the tower, halfway to "Al-Shumeriyeh." What do you guys think? --Caustic Logic 00:23, 12 October 2012 (EST)

Hospital burning? Not this image, but see "sniper videos" below. --Caustic Logic 10:42, 20 October 2012 (EST)

Hospital ID/View Issues
This is crucial, and we've been slow just as I found it. (CE,Petri went out of town -has internet again, but apparently limited, and then you flaked for some reason and it's just been me and MyronM (?). Anyway, could use some other thoughts. Visibly, it's not certain. That water tower is by deduction. It looks a bit more like minaret, too small and shiny. For that matter, the army post looks a little small and strange, and the trees right behind the hospital seem pushed south, etc. And which exact unfinished buildings are in the foreground, etc. But Otherwise, I can't see what view this is aside from about what I indicated (or north/west even of there). "Al-Shumeryeh?" is visible when it pans north. The apparent closeness is nothing - illusion of no-depth always happens. Four to six "rows" of houses distant, the hospital, no problemo - fields and the canal lie in between there. But there should be a small water tower there, and instead there's a minaret, so I call illusion. Anyone else? --Caustic Logic 22:48, 9 October 2012 (EST)


 * I first thought that what you describe as small water tower is the minaret of the big mosque, because the actual water tower in the city comes into picture at 2:20 to the left. But after that, a bigger pin comes into sight and that could be the actual minaret. If that's the case and the water tower is "right" of the minaret, it must be filmed from a steep angle somewhere like here, at an elevated point over the city. From skimming the area, I think the thing on your screenshot is this structure, maybe telecommunication of some sort. In any case I think that the Hospital is out of sight, to the right, for the whole video and what we see burning is the military intelligence HQ. --CE 05:10, 10 October 2012 (EST)


 * After further attempts to line things up, I think the view at 2:26 with the minaret left of the city water tower and the antenna left of the water tower on the hill can only be seen from even further north-west, somewhere like here, already in Kafr Laha, and the building with the many windows in your screenshot is this one. I stick to my assessment that the smoke comes from somewhere near the military intelligence HQ (or even further north on main street), and that the Hospital is out of sight. --CE 11:47, 10 October 2012 (EST)


 * Water tower to the left, hmmm... I'll be back. --Caustic Logic 20:02, 10 October 2012 (EST)
 * I see what you're saying about the line-up of minaret, water tower, other thing. Would be a ways north of all three, looking close to due south. I can't line up "Al-Shumeriya?" right - it seems to look more east on it, from just a bit north. And the hill water tower would be like 3-4 km distant, or more, depending how far out you have to go to get things lined up. I don't think the tower could be seen that far, and here it looks just as big as the north city one, despite being actually a little narrower and very, very distant. So my pervious view is confused but I have a hard time with this one too. Looking again for a water tower northwest of Shumeriyeh. --Caustic Logic 20:45, 10 October 2012 (EST)
 * I see no reason why the tower on the hill shouldn't be seen, it's not THAT far. And that they look of equal size .. well, I think the one on the hill is a bit larger than the other one, and the perspective could play a role too, as the camera position looks up to the hill and down to the city. I think your "Shumariyeh?" is actually Nasiriyah as "Shumariyah?" is up on the hill and likely only in small part in sight. --CE 21:58, 10 October 2012 (EST)
 * You're right, and with enough northerly position, Al-Shumeriyeh can line up okay. I actually compared all towers, and the hospital one is too big for my original idea, but still smaller. The one in the north of town seems to be broader, if not taller, than the one on the hill. Maybe there's that smoke magnifying things effect that makes harvest moons look bigger. What building that is burning, I don't know. I didn't see any good fits on the line, unless its a ways further north. It is about hospital size, lots of windows. --Caustic Logic 22:36, 10 October 2012 (EST)
 * I don't think it's the building with many windows that is burning. Checked the link above? That building (IIRC a school according to the wikimapia labels) is half-way between the camera and the burning. I think burning is on main street, but one can't be sure, it could also be in the city itself behind the school. --CE 22:45, 10 October 2012 (EST)

A Better Perspective?
The perspective I determined after some experimentation. Red is the view at 2:26, with the minaret, the city tower, the antenna and the right border of view with the water tower. Yellow is the view at 0:26 with the right border guessed by the hill view and the left border according to the antenna. --CE 22:54, 10 October 2012 (EST)


 * Not as excited by the issue now, but I imagine you're right and should check the work and see it. After some sleep. It might not have to be that far north even. Gah, why did I not just keep watching and notice the water tower? --Caustic Logic 23:26, 10 October 2012 (EST)
 * Oh, and hope you don't mind the section bump. --Caustic Logic 23:28, 10 October 2012 (EST)


 * It's still a great video and the timing fits with this being the military intelligence HQ burning - also interesting the explosion or what it is at the water tower on the hill half-way into the video. --CE 23:34, 10 October 2012 (EST)


 * Until I check, no word if military HQ is it. The smoke looks closer, like at the big unidentified building, but that might mean nothing - lots of things look closer than they are here. being north also puts the time later. That's why I'll update that eventually. No set time, yet, but the sun's coming from somewhat near behind the camera. If he's further north than I though, so is the sun. North of due west means nearer sunset, maybe 6:30-7:00 PM or even later. --Caustic Logic 20:59, 11 October 2012 (EST)


 * Looking forward to your closer look then. My analysis is just "good-enough" to say it's likely not the hospital and locate the area where it was shot from, and i'm not good with reading the sun. --CE 21:41, 11 October 2012 (EST)

ETA: This is worth pulling out an old trick from even nerdier days - FOV division and lines-of-sight comparison for all visible objects - middle of view, four quadrants, angled lines outfrom different centers, along this line, this and this line up, this is just left of the line we should see a small outbuilding, etc. I've been trying that, but not organized enough. The water tower ID can't do it, so everything else might have to work together. --Caustic Logic 22:53, 9 October 2012 (EST)
 * And CE did it first... --Caustic Logic 23:28, 10 October 2012 (EST)


 * no panic, my attention was just distracted by Venezuela for a day or two. Am at work now, will take a look at this this evening (while you are sleeping) and add Arifah n stuff to the attack narrative. --CE 22:58, 9 October 2012 (EST)


 * Wasn't any panic, just. A little frantic, as usual, maybe. Good adds. This will be the powerful page. Present organization may not last but it works as a starter at least and some room to grow.--Caustic Logic 23:43, 9 October 2012 (EST)


 * Oh yeah and unaware of all developments and details, and at the risk of alienating potential contributors, go Hugo! --Caustic Logic 23:45, 9 October 2012 (EST)


 * He already did. :oD Forgot to say - great job with this page so far! --CE 00:00, 10 October 2012 (EST)

Just an FYI, it's taking a while, but getting all objects onto same/similar seven lines is suggesting something less distant and a bit further west than you mapped. Graphics forthcoming, at least halfway there. --Caustic Logic 10:16, 12 October 2012 (EST)


 * Inset picture added. Your red and yellow lines, two anyway, were traced in behind for comparison. Trying to keep each line the right distance from each other (note the three "checks" along the way, same proportions, compared at three spots. Not perfect or totally precise, but it explains the two buildings lining up on the light blue, the tall building between the greens, etc. I think tracing back this line until they converge would give us our location. Military intel HQ does seem to be about on or a hair south of the purple line, like the smoke here is, and so is the likely source of the smoke. Or something closer, on the same line. Good call. --Caustic Logic 15:02, 15 October 2012 (EST)


 * Ah yes, the two "light blue" buildings kind of line up, good orientation point. Thinking about it, the scene of the RPG incident is quite exactly closer on that line if you located it correctly (which I assume). --CE 20:55, 15 October 2012 (EST)
 * Actually, that's one of the points I had a hard time with, and still not sure it's quite right. It's a point where a different reading might work. But all in all, line spacing, all major pivots, overall angle, seems to fit pretty well. The tall building between the green lines all but clinches it for me, with a little ambiguity on the right side of the view. --Caustic Logic 10:40, 20 October 2012 (EST)

Arabad bin Sarieh battalion

 * I have redirected May 25 rebel attack in Taldou to Houla, May 25: Who Was in Control?. The talk page is however still there. I am moving this one topic here to give it more visibility. -- Petri Krohn 09:11, 13 October 2012 (EST)

Here is an important clue from TIME magazine:


 * Syria's Splintered Opposition: Who Is Running the War Against the Regime? – By Rania Abouzeid Monday, Feb. 06, 2012

Syrian soldiers who defected to join the Free Syrian Army and set up the Arabad bin Sarieh battalion join a protest against Syrian President Bashar Assad in the town of Hula, near the city of Homs, on Feb. 3, 2012

The article uses a photo from an event also depicted in this photo as well as in a rebel video.

Doing a Google image search on the image gives s large number of pages, most of them in Arabic, some possibly containing more clues.


 * http://sweeter-news.blogspot.fi/2012/08/blog-post_3093.html
 * http://www.egyptindependent.com/node/641231
 * http://www.3nzh.com/vb/t62845.html

Here is another photo from the same Reuters feed:
 * Syrian opposition accuses UN of giving Assad 'license to kill'

More of the same:
 * http://www.alarab.net/Article/432780
 * http://www.alarab.net/Article/432746 – Here with more Clock Tower hoax – different tower though.

Demonstrations in support of Brigade:
 * Homs Hula demonstrations Houla Arabad Ben valid

-- Petri Krohn 09:03, 8 October 2012 (EST) –– updated 03:01, 18 October 2012 (EST)

Attack on clock tower and Baath Party HQ
The Brigade channel has two videos that show the distraction attack in the Baath Party HQ and the clock tower checkpoint. The shoots are fired next to the bridge just north of the HQ. -- Petri Krohn 13:04, 17 October 2012 (EST) Here is one more video of distraction attack in the Baath Party HQ. This time one rebel firing a machine gun is hit and is taken away.
 * http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xovR6GZOauM
 * http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqXscOnCUh8
 * _أصابة أحد عناصر كتيبة العرباض بن سارية في معركة تحرير حاجز دوار الحرية في الحولة تلدو_‎
 * "Wounding one of the elements of battalion Arabad Ben force in the battle to liberate barrier Freedom Square in Hula Tldo"


 * The location is this alley next to the bridge. http://goo.gl/maps/FEXEw Note the tree by the bridge. MediaInfo is useless in this case, but I believe this is from May 25th. 1) The action corresponds to other descriptions of the fake attack. 2) This action is labeled as "liberation of Freedom Circle". I believe the clock tower was "liberated" only once.
 * You are right that the action does not look too professional. The same Brigade channel also has videos of highly professional snipers inside buildings. i am still analyzing them to see if I can say anything of those locations. -- Petri Krohn 09:30, 18 October 2012 (EST)

Searching for the title produces several other videos, possible from the same battle – I presume on May 25th. (Liberating Freedom Square / Circle in Taldou seems to be the keyword.) Also see this remix. The video combines several pieces of footage, some from Main Street. Did this battle happen in mid-June, or was the video compiled to honor the martyr Abu Omar (RPG guy on Main Street) who died in mid-June? Another version of the video, with less descriptions was publisher by the Arabad bin Sarieh battalion on June 27th:
 * The battle to liberate Freedom Circle in Tldo
 * Published on Jun 29, 2012 by almrsd alsori, 11 minutes, 52 seconds.
 * Battalion Arabad bin valid in conjunction with the confidentiality of the martyr Abu Omar in the battle to liberate Freedom Circle in Tldo in mid-June / Ewenio 2012
 * Free Army battalions Battalion Arabad bin valid in conjunction with the confidentiality of the martyr Abu Omar in the battle to liberate Freedom Circle in Tldo


 * Great work Petri, have to catch up. Started with this one - it's actually one continuous scene, they are running from their original barricade to main street (starting at around 4:20 in). Should be possible to identify those places. But the date remains a problem, as with the other vids. --CE 22:32, 20 October 2012 (EST)
 * True, but as Petri notes, wherever it says "battle to liberate freedom circle,"May 25 is suggested. Tough the "circle" with its fake clock tower doesn't seem to have seen any battle itself, just required a wide swathe of freedom around it to the south, apparently. --Caustic Logic 22:56, 20 October 2012 (EST)
 * Freedom Circle is the real clock tower. The fake is on Revolution / Martyrs' Square. (I do not really know what they call it, but the hoax called it "Town Square".) -- Petri Krohn 03:15, 21 October 2012 (EST)
 * Yes, it's likely our battle, but we can't be sure. I took a look at possible locations and am quite positive that the barricade is here and they are shooting west, down the defectors "Satto Road". Then they run a couple of meters south and turn west in front of the white building, crossing the open space south-west and then make it west through the back alley to main street. Al-Hassan clan. --CE 23:03, 20 October 2012 (EST)
 * Yes! You are correct! The barricade is on street 240E ("Satto Road"), 90 meters east of Main Street. The rebels shoot west, at the intersection on Main Street. At first I had trouble understanding the directions, it is past 6 pm – the sun is shining on the northern face of buildings. The rebels then run to alley 285E and shoot an RPG southwards on Main Street. In the end they again change position and seem to be running south along some alley. -- Petri Krohn 05:16, 21 October 2012 (EST)
 * Had a quick look and I think I agree with the location they emerge on Main. The route there, other details ... Tomorrow night I get serious about these videos, place one of my own, or something. Just been sidetracked and this deserves full attention. --Caustic Logic 20:20, 21 October 2012 (EST)
 * Again, it would be vital to date this to May 25th. The title helps: "liberation of Freedom Circle", known to have happened on May 25th. What is fascinating is how well the video corroborates the story told by the rebel defector. -- Petri Krohn 20:35, 21 October 2012 (EST)
 * In my third point over there I already noted that your videos should be checked if they match the place - and I did so with some shorter videos, but without the running sequence wasn't able to pin it down with certainty. What's with the other vids of the guy firing the RPG and people shooting down south, any of them dated earlier? --CE 20:41, 21 October 2012 (EST)
 * The videos started coming out in late June. There is no technical way of attaching an earlier date to the videos. -- Petri Krohn 20:45, 21 October 2012 (EST)

Two older videos are related. Both published on Apr 23, 2012 by ALHula:
 * Hula Battalion Arabad bin force preparing to clash with Assad gangs occupied Freedom Circle
 * Hula Battalion Arabad bin force preparing to clash with Assad gangs occupied dizziness of freedom (video Old) https://www.facebook.com/hnn.hula2
 * (same scene, moving) كتيبة العرباض بن سارية تتهيأ لصد عصابات الاسد في الحولة (Battalion Arabad bin guerrilla force is preparing to repel al-Assad in Hula)
 * Hula Battalion Arabad bin valid address gangs Assad
 * One battles Battalion Arabad bin force in Hula (Old video)


 * Very cool, thanks for adding these. (quick note, I'm booked today after flaking a bit yesterday, so it's good to see someone else working here) I watched one, the first one in that last batch ... pretty boring in itself, but likely placeable, and possibly raw. This is supposed to be May 25, or later, I wonder? You'll have to update if MediaInfo gives a useable time. I added from the sidebar a related video, same guys moving forward, better action and scenery/rout of attack clues. These aren't the main force, either, clearly. They have not one vehicle or heavy machine gun, and no mortars I noticed. Ism it sanitized, a prop group to show how weak they are? Or just one small unit with one small task among many? --Caustic Logic 06:57, 18 October 2012 (EST)
 * Noticed Apr 23 date later... --Caustic Logic 22:56, 20 October 2012 (EST)

Sniper videos
Here is a list of sniper videos:
 * One Saraya Battalion Arabad bin force in the process of quality by targeting elements of the army Asadi
 * Members of battalion Arabad Ben force targeting elements of the army Asadi traitor
 * Members of battalion Arabad Ben force targeting elements of the army Asadi traitor
 * One faction Battalion Arabad bin guerrilla force clashing with Assad occupied hospital National Tldo in Hula
 * One of the elements of battalion Arabad Ben force military targets one-al Assad gangs – PRG

The sniper position could be this building seen across the street on main street:
 * Battalion Arabad bin force in Hula clashing with gangs Assad (Just before sunset)
 * Update: In fact it is the same building. compare the door and window to the balcony: 2s – 43s – I already commented here on the position of this alley on Main Street. Also note the sandbag positions on the roof of the building to the north.
 * Continued: No, this is not one of the two alleys I located earlier. It is 720E, just south of security HQ.


 * Agreed. Man, a little slow to build up steam here... The right (north) face of the building across the way has a third floor, while the left (south) majority of the building doesn't. All else matches. Looking southwest, lining things up (near building corners, the big tree, the smoke), the big tree must be from the big orchard down there, and the smoke seems to be further yet. It's on a line to match the woods behind the hospital, or pretty damn close, and not the hospital itself. I tend to think that's it, in fact. Will be worth a graphic then. That took part of the time. Middle line, very corner of the near building to the smoke = to the row of trees behind the hospital. :) --Caustic Logic 22:49, 19 October 2012 (EST)
 * It would be of huge importance if we could show that this video is from May 25th. The fire (or firing?) in the distance could help establish the date. -- Petri Krohn 13:55, 20 October 2012 (EST)
 * I'm not sure there's a way to be totally sure. The sense of actual fighting leaves only so many days it could be (number unknown). It isn't likely any earlier than May 25, but possibly later. The fire being at the hospital would be a good clue of the day, or vice-versa, but best not to let those two lean on each other when neither is certain. BTW I'm still lagging and may 'til Sunday night. I've been stuck trying to stabilize the background of the Saad Street RPG incident video. Next, maybe I'll scrap the video altogether and manually shift around the relevant majority of 300 some frames... then render, lighten/sharpen/zoom and crop. Any better ideas? I really want that perp stabilized and clarified. We can't see who he is, just what he does. Starts out falling on his ass, for one.--Caustic Logic 22:19, 20 October 2012 (EST)


 * This video may be from the same building (staircase), but most likely from a later date. It shows the same actors as this set of Facebook photos.

School: -- Petri Krohn 11:57, 18 October 2012 (EST)
 * Champions Battalion Arabad bin valid and Altejet to destroy armored gangs Assad
 * A Champions Battalion Arabad bin force the Army to destroy armored Asadi
 * Hasn't the school ben identified, or the location of a building described as one? There was also talk of an Air Force college, from which direction "the regime" was firing. Sorry, no details to help with at the moment, but if anyone else has them handy, would be good to know what "school" means.
 * The school is 950W on Main Street with an extension in the back. -- Petri Krohn 02:42, 21 October 2012 (EST)

Incorporating the videos
Petri, you've added much I'm only starting to nibble on. I'm thinking how to incorporate it. And also, before I forget, I didn't mean to sideline the rebel attack page. I think we can have many pages, and there's enough detail by far, especially with the videos, that it deserves one. This page should have, in the end, a good summary with all major points and most sources, but less explanation and images. Plus rebel narrative, base details, etc. - it'll be a big enough page. The other could have more detail. In fact, I thought I did link to the "Main article" here. Maybe I'll let you if you agree with that approach.

Okay, on these videos. There should be a section on both front pages for rebel videos of the rebel attack. Some ambiguity on date, if noted, is fine. If it's likely part, it should be noted. I think they're fascinating. More detailed thoughts on organization after a bit. --Caustic Logic 20:55, 19 October 2012 (EST)