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Recent updates

April, 2016
14.4 Following Yatsenuk's resignation, the Rada elects Poroshenko crony Volodymyr Groysman as new prime minister. As his successor as speaker of the parliament, the Rada elects with a great majority of 284 votes the infamous right-wing extremist and paramilitary leader Andrij Parubiy.

At Putin press conference, a question was asked, since Minsk 2 agreements are not fulfilled, what the future for Donbas will be? Does it mean war? (video;full transcript- В.Кораблёва question ). The response (briefly, no) was that there is no alternative to Minsk agreements in resolving the conflict. Importance of solving political issues first was stressed, including constitutional amendments, special status for Donbas, amnesty. Those items were not fulfilled by Kiev, and security situation (provoked by Ukraine, but anyway) should not be used as an excuse to stall political steps. Repeated call to the West to use their influence in Kiev, instead of blaming Moscow. Putin stated that he 'assumes' that there will be no active fighting; described and supported Poroshenko proposal for greater role of OSCE, including presence of armed OSCE observers on separation line.
 * 'Patriotic' commentary about this long press conference as a whole, from Strelkov sort of crowd, was kind of mild disappointment. It was viewed as quite weak, -but no real alternative, apart from general gloom, was offered.

10.4 Photo, videos report from Avdeevka, recent flash point. Fierce fighting continues in industrial zone in Avdeevka, supposedly a neutral zone, opposing positions there may be some 50 -70 meters apart. There are losses on both sides. Videos provide quite a good idea what's going on.

Yatseniuk decided to resign, to be voted in Rada on April 12-. Text is Ukrainian and English (lower) on his Facebook page. Groysman is nominated as replacement by Poroshenko block in Rada, he says. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vp2A7OOIXtg

UAF is shelling Kirovskii region of Donetsk, two DPR soldiers were killed. It is reported that Yasinovataia checkpoint was shelled from 122 mm artillery by UAF.

9.4 DPR: 'Tens of thousands' people gathered for a rally on the occasion of the second anniversary of the proclamation of the Republic

Shelling continues, 96 mortar shells were fired by UAF on Donetsk and Gorlovka. One opolchenie fighter was killed by sniper fire; two civilians were wounded (shelling and machine gun fire).

8.4 Fighting in the neutral Avdeevka industrial zone, Right Sector has losses in wounded and 1 killed according to Ukrainian postings on social media. A day before, Turchinov and Poltorak visited Avdeevka, accompanied by OSCE and JCCC; there were no violations during their visit, but Ukraine resumed shelling as soon as they left.

Comment of DPR Foreign Minister on report of European Parliament deputies, DNI News (in English).

Givi lightly wounded at a checkpoint, was there with civilians

7.4 Three DPR soldiers were killed, 5 wounded. UAF shelled 'Volvo Center' near Donetsk airport from heavy mortars. Also Donetsk air terminal and northern suburbs of Gorlovka were shelled- DAN news.
 * Evening update: shelling continues, and as a result two residential houses in Donetsk suburb burned down

Netherlands rejects EU-Ukraine partnership deal, BBC
 * ''Turnout was low, 32.2%, but above the 30% threshold for the vote to be valid. The deal was rejected by 61.1% of votes, compared with 38.1% in favour. Prime Minister Mark Rutte said the government may have to reconsider the deal, although the vote is not binding.

Regional council of Transcarpathian (Zakarpattia) region of Ukraine appealed to Poroshenko to give the region self-governance, as was decided in a referendum held in 1991. The appeal cites dire economic situation and promises of Maidan not fulfilled. It was further explained that they meant 'decentralization', not 'autonomy' or separation.

6.4 Assassination attempt on Givi. In Makeevka, Krasnovardeiskii region, an IED device exploded near his car. Givi was not hurt, the car was damaged. Second attempt on Givi, both in Makeevka.

Six houses were damaged by UAF mortar shelling in Zaitsevo, near Gorlovka. Sahanka, Shirokino in the South were shelled too, damage is being assessed.

5.4 Donetsk was shelled from mortars and BMP, Sahanka village in the south was shelled from mortars,  Yasinovatya checkpoint was shelled from a tank gun, Gorlovka suburbs were shelled  from tank guns

4.4 In the evening Gorlovka was [http://dan-news.info/defence/ukrainskie-siloviki-vecherom-obstrelyali-prigorod-gorlovki-povrezhdeno-zdanie-shkoly-istochnik.html shelled by UAF, a school was damaged.

In the past day, DPR was shelled 125 times. 82 and 120 mm mortars, BMP, BTR, grenade launchers, small firearms were used. One DPR soldier was killed.

DPR coal-mining enterprises in March 2016 raised to the surface more than a million tons of "black gold". This was reported today by the press service of the Ministry of Coal and Energy.

3.4 DPR was shelled 170 times in the past day

Poroshenko demanded that a new coalition and government is formed on the first Rada session, threatening to 'disband the parliament', i.e call early Rada elections, if that is not the case. 2.4 Donetsk and Gorlovka shelled overnight. Also Sahanka, Novoazovsk region, in DPR south, was shelled

LPR was shelled by 'GRAD' MLRS, at least 10 Grad missiles were fired on Pervomaisk from the direction of village Boguslavskoe.

Commander of 3 DPR infantry brigade, call name 'Batia' (Daddy) was killed in action near Gorlovka. Before the war he was a miner in Shaktersk. He joined opolchenie under Strelkov in Slaviansk. Survived by a daughter.

1.4 According to Basurin, in the past day DPR was shelled 547 times by UAF. Most intensive shelling, and using weapons violating  Minsk agreement, was in Gorlovka and its suburbs Zaitsevo and Golmovskii; in settlements of Spartak, Zhabichevo, Veseloe; in the vicinity of Donetsk Airport, and in towns Dokuchaevsk and Yasinovatai. Basurin: "It was done on criminal orders of commander of 93 brigade Klochkov, commander of 56 brigade Melnikov, commander of 72 brigade Sokolov, commander of 57 brigade Krasilnikov, commander of 58 brigade Zabolotnyi, and under full connivance of Ukrainian side representative in the JCCC (Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination) general Taran."
 * Donetsk People's Republic of the Ministry of Defense announced the next part of the dossier on commanders of Ukrainian troops involved in war crimes in  Donbass; detailed power point file, as well previous two parts of the report are linked in this latest announcement.

Zakharchenko: threat of resumption of military hostilities increased due to provocations by UAF.

ATO volunteer announced on her Facebook page that an Ukrainian fighter nicknamed 'Godzilla' was killed by a mortar round explosion in Zaitsevo, near Gorlovka- Rusvesna reports.

Photos, videos, letters, on Cassad blog

March, 2016
31.3 UAF shelled Spartak, a northern Donetsk suburb, from heavy 152 mm artillery. Veseloe, Zhabichevo, and Volvo center were shelled from 82 mm mortars. Donetsk-Gorlovka motorway and Yasinovataya checkpoint were shelled from 120 mm mortars.

Shelling continues; settlements of Zaitsevo and Golmovskii were shelled by UAF 'Grad' MLRS. OSCE was notified.

By official DPR data, four DPR soldiers were killed in the past week, 5  soldiers and 13 civilians were wounded. (However, Strelkov suggested higher losses, see talk page).

Cassad report, with maps, photos, videos, and comments from NAF and UAF sides (losses on UAF isde, in particular).

Opolchenie member 'Zodiak' believes that Ukraine used 'Pion' heavy artillery, reports strong explosions. Zhuchkovskii, now with opolchenie, also reports (but not first-hand) that 'Pion' (2С7) used, as well as other artillery and MLRS. Panicky reports from civilians that they are being killed, while the media looks elsewhere.

30.3 DPR MOD: Ukraine shelled DPR over  500 times in the last day. Two DPR soldiers were killed by sniper fire near Donetsk.

26.3 DPR counter-attacks in Avdeevka industrial area. This appears to be in the neutral area (although the map we got, below, is not detailed enough; here is where it is ). This area was earlier captured by Ukraine, and used to shell the road (Gorlovka-Donetsk) and Yasinovataia. Ukraine proudly reported capture in the media earlier in March (example, +another. Videos made for dramatic effect also appeared).

Eduard Basurin: UAF intentionally shelled residential area of Makeevka. According to Eduard Basurin, Ukrainian command works according to plan developed by an adviser of the Ukrainian president on military matters Vladimir Gorbulin. "He (Gorbulin) openly said about the disturbing shelling along the line of contact, taking over neutral zones, complete blockade followed by a solution of the conflict by force", - said the representative of the Ministry of Defense.

Earlier today, Eduard Basurin said that UAF have been preparing for an attack in three directions of the front (Mariupol, Donetsk, Gorlovka) as evidenced by the increase in the concentration of troops near the line of contact, delivery of fuel and ammunition. Attack may start when roads improve.

25.3 Ten DPR servicemen were killed in the past week -DAN news

Ukrainian Attorney defending captured Russians Erofeev and Alexandrov was killed in Ukraine (he disappeared, and now his body was found).

From Kerry-Lavrov press conference: "In addition to the Normandy format, there is a two-way channel, which operates since the summer of last year by agreement between the presidents of Russia and the United States. We appreciate the interest of the United States to help resolve the situation." - Lavrov said. "Especially because the ultimate goals of the implementation of" Minsk-2 "for all external players are the same," - he added. Moscow hopes that "as in the case of Syria, the pressure on all parties will be applied also in the Ukrainian crisis."

24.3 According to media reports, current Rada speaker Groysman is nominated by Poroshenko block to be the next prime minister, while 'People Front" party of Yatseniuk is given opportunity to name next Rada speaker, and chooses (get ready for this) ...Andrey Parubiy . The same one who was leading Maidan 'self defense' and made some well-discussed trips to Odessa...

Makeevka (map) (website) was heavily shelled overnight by UAF-report and photos. 4 wounded, 2 houses destroyed, 16 damaged. Electricity supply interrupted. Makevka borders Donetsk city and is near Yasinovataia where there's lots of fighting recently. One DPR soldier was killed

23.3 "Kievan Rus'" battalion commander Evgenii Lavrov is quoted to say, from his interview to Gromadske TV, that  12 soldiers from the republic of Georgia and 3 Americans are serving under contract in his battalion, which participates in ATO in the East. This is direct violation of Minsk agreements, item 10:
 * ''Withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, as well as mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under monitoring of the OSCE. Disarmament of all illegal groups

21.3 Guilty verdict for Nadezhda Savchenko delivered in Donetsk district court of Rostov region, Russia. TASS, BBC.
 * Sentenced to 22 years in prison

20.3 It is said that Kiev ordered 5000 engines for flame-throws for infantry, said to start preparations for city fighting

19.3 UAF used flame-thrower in an attack under Yasinovataia. One NAF soldier was killed. The attack was repelled. Report.

17.3 UAF shelled DPR 280 times in one day -DAN news (similar numbers are routinely reported).

15.3 Zakharchenko: if OSCE, EU, USA will not stop Ukrainian military provocations, the situation may get out of control. According to Zakharchenko, they complained to OSCE when Ukraine started to capture settlements in the neutral zone, however OSCE response was that status of neutral zone is not defined in Minsk agreements, encouraging Ukraine to continue and leading to further provocations.

14.3 According to Novorossia war correspondent Marina Kharkova, 18 opolchenie were killed in recent clashes (Donetsk suburbs, Yasinovataia, Spartak, Zaitsevo), and 8 more died in hospitals. Photo shows Ukrainian armored vehicles and equipment, including anti-aircraft, apparently transported by train towards the separation line.

It is reported that Poroshenko choice for the new prime ministers narrowed to Jaresko or Samopomosh leader Sadovyi (or a third alternative gaining enough support from Rada). However, Sadovyi refused, saying that he cannot be responsible and undo all the ills done by others. 12.3 It is said that UAF started to evacuate civilians from Mar'inka, Donetsk suburb, in preparation for an attack. DPR is said to bringing reserves closer to separation line.

Continued clases under Yasinovataia. It is said that UAF authorized use of heavy artillery, and that it was actually used overnight (4 artillery shells fired). According to DPR, 31 UAF soldiers were killed in recent clashes under Yasinovataia, and UAF is hiding those losses (secret burials alleged).

8.3 Russian TV Zvezda, covering military affairs, published an extract from a report "War crimes of Ukrainian security officials: torture and inhuman treatment". Interviews of over 200 prisoners of war exchanged with Ukraine were used in the study. Period covered is 25 August 2014 to 20 January 2015. Several extreme example of torture are described in the extract (in Russian). Report was prepared by a non-governmental organization Foundation studies of problems of democracy (the head is Maxim Grigoriev), and the Russian Public Council for International Cooperation and Public Diplomacy, with the support of the Russian Peace Fund.
 * Full report (second), for the period from 25 August 2014 to 20 January 2015
 * First report, for the period from 25 August to 4 November 2014.

7.3 UAF captured territory in the neutral buffer zone near Yasinovataia-Gorlovka road and Yasinovataia checkpoint manned by DPR. They used this territory to shell civilian transport, forcing road closure. They launched an attack, shelled the DPR checkpoint the next day. Journalists at the checkpoint -report and videos

6.3 Russian embassy in Kiev attacked, after demonstration in support of Savchenko-report and videos. Broken glass, burned flag, effigy resembling Russian president; usual chants, 'glory to the nation-death to enemies' sort.
 * Earlier Savchenko announced going on 'dry' hunger strike, ie no food or water.
 * Response protest at Ukrainian embassy in Moscow was quickly put together by activists, some with familiar faces. About 300 people present, peaceful and separated by police cordon from the embassy.

According to Basurin, Russian general from peacekeeping JCCC (Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination ) came under Ukrainian fire near Donetsk, despite his Ukrainian counterpart being fully aware of his exact location -DAN news

4.3 Normandy four FM talks ended without an agreement on Donbass elections. German foreign minister dissatisfied with Normandy Four Paris talks, TASS (Eng.)
 * ''Little steps will not be enough for sure to calm down the situation for a long prospect and overcome the conflict," Steinmeier said. "Until stable ceasefire is reached, there is a threat of military and political escalation that could bury any attempts to implement the Minsk agreements.

3.3 Sources: The UN monitoring mission on human rights recommends that the Ukrainian authorities develop a procedure for recognition of acts of civil status (certificates of birth, death and marriage), issued to citizens on the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas. This is stated in the thirteenth report of the UN Monitoring mission on human rights in Ukraine presented in Kiev on Thursday, 3 March 2016, reports the UNIAN. The report covers the period from 16 November 2015 15 February 2016. Concerns on Ukraine not recognizing DPR/LPR passports, and thus affecting social benefits, were raised in the previous 12th report, by now easily available.

Ukrainian FM 'categorically objected' to those recommendations.

Russia recognized DPR/LPR passports, as well as vehicle registrations, according to border control service HQ of Russian FSB in Rostov region.

2.3 Trilateral contact group to discuss security issues today in Minsk, after being unable to come to an agreement on the previous day -RIA

1.3 Two DPR soldiers wounded in shelling of Donetsk by UAF (dninews.com, English)
 * DNI news gives English version of main events, from DPR/Novorossia perspective. They seem OK, though unsure who exactly they are (Donbass International News Agency, located in Donetsk, they say; Janus Putkonen is the editor). Yet for 'official' version of important maters I'd stay with dan-news.info (or Rusvesna); those are in Russian only, but may be google-translated.

Documenting Incidents, Human Rights violations

 * Interactive map of human rights violations, human rights NCO organization 'Just Defense' based in Moscow in partnership with Ombudsman-DPR vkontakte (vk.com) Ombudsman-DPR -Daria Morozova  (announcement video).

Analysis

 * Why They Are Killing Donbass? Novorossia TV with English subs. Blames consumerism, has very interesting cultural observations and quotations (incl late acad. Vladimir Arnold at 21:23 on educational reasons).

Blaming Ukraine
Gennady Korban (Kolomoiskii team) "ATO operation handling was a failure" ru.tsn.ua 'Korban made statements about corruption [...] and failed ATO handling'. Previously, criticized using heavy weapons in Donbass and suggested that at most police action is appropriate.

Blaming Russia

 * '(...) Lies about Ukraine', -Boris Nemtsov, Leonid Martyniuk-blames Russian Government (based on inaccurate or later reversed statements made at the official level).

Blaming the USA

 * Paul Craig Roberts ’ Address to the International Conference on the European/Russian Crisis Created by Washington', June 19, 2015. ...' Wolfowitz Doctrine...''The gullibility of the public has enabled Washington to establish the foundation for a new Cold War...' ' "Washington doesn’t want partners. Washington wants vassals" ' 'European governments and, of course, the lapdog UK government, are complicit in this implicit declaration of war against Russia and China. If it comes to war, Europeans will pay the ultimate price for the treason of their leaders [...] as Europe will cease to exist'.

Odessa news
15.1.2016 Maria Gaidar became assistant head of Odessa regional administration (Saakashvilli is the head)

6.1.2016 The subsistence minimum (this is known as poverty level in the West) per odessite in 2016 is as follows: from January 1 - 1330 hryvnia per month (that is 55 USD at this time), from May 1 - 1399 hryvnia, from December 1 - 1496 hryvnia 1 TV, Odessa.

27.8 DPR all-for all prisoners exchange list includes 63 anti-maidan activists arrested or charged after May 2 events.

19.7 Saakasvilli clashed with Filatov, Kolomoiskii ally. Clash has to do with elections in Chernigov where another Kolomoiskii ally Korban is running. Saakashvilli is said to come to support opposing candidate Berezenko, his main opponent, but gave a different reason for the visit; that ended in verbal and almost physical clash with Filatov (video), and a court case threatened by Filatov.

17.7.2015 Maria Gaidar appointed vice-governor responsible for social policy. She is a daughter of late Yegor Gaidar (a reformer, acting prime minister of Russia in the second half of 1992). Indicated that her priority will be to show residents that regional authorities care about them. tAfter showing reluctance to persistent journalist questions on who Ukraine is fighting with, eventually provided] politically correct answer telling that Russia attacked Georgia and Ukraine (on her 4th attempt).

30.5.2015 Mikheil Saakashvili appointed governor of Odessa region. Poroshenko stated that knows Saakashvilli for a long time and trusts him. Control of Odessa port which may be used for military aid,  Transnistria border, and creating positive image abroad,  are seen as some of the reasons behind the appointment. Port control and other economic matters placed Saakashvilli on collision course with Kolomoiskii, whose ally was a previous Odessa governor.

Photos/Videos
Debaltsevo Damage to houses, big craters. It is said in the article that sometime UAF intentionally damaged houses by a direct fire.

Uglegorsk: NAF arranged a corridor for civilians (English sub.) Donetsk children Enakievo Gorlovka Nikishino Nikishino (center) Uglegorsk

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 * Donetsk Airport ~ Before and After, January 2015 . 3D model-sketchlab
 * Luhansk Airport photos,-Graham Phillips and Cassad.

Ukrainian Agony
December 20, 2015: German freelance journalist Mark Batalmai, who has lived in Donetsk since mid-2014 and worked embedded with the opolchenie, releases his crowdfunded full-length documentary "Ukrainian Agony" in an English-language version (German-language original).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsQX6Lm142g

Agreements

 * 22.7.15 Under-100 mm weapons withdrawal was agreed Poroshenko statement: ' I hope it will be the real beginning of the ceasefire'.
 * 12.2.15 Two documents were agreed: on measures on implementing Minsk protocol (English language PDF here).

Resurgent Events?
Since now, December 23 2015, for the (n+1) time unconditional ceasefire is announced, although I do hope that one is the last, there is no warranty. So I'll just keep labels and dates for important but so far resurgent events here.

February 23 update: by the end of January, 2016, lots of shelling incidents are again reported daily. Once again, promises of ceasefire did not materialize.


 * Unconditional Ceasefire in Donbas.
 * 23.12.15 (starting 0:00, Dec 23, 2015, as announced-TASS
 * (22.7.15)
 * (12.2.15)


 * Donetsk Airport, Donetsk suburbs shelled by Ukraine
 * 13.2.16;9.2.16; 26.1.16(tank fire);25.1.16;21.1.16; 20.1.16;15.1.16; 13.1.16;31.12.15 (Staromikhailovka); 29.12; 28.12.15 (Zhabichevo); 27.12.15(Petrovskyi) ; 26.12.15(Spartak); 24.12.15 ; 13.12.15 (Dokuchaevsk).
 * (Every other day, up until now)


 * Gorlovka, nearby villages shelled (Rusvesna updates-Gorlovka)
 * 13.2.16;21.1.16; 11/12.1.16 (Engl).; 10.1.16 (1 DPR killed) 9.1.2016; 27.12.15; 24.12.15.
 * (Similar to the above)


 * Villages near Mariupol shelled by Ukraine
 * 25.1.16 (artillery, from Mariupol);Kominternovo: 21.1.16;31.12.15 29.12.15 ; 24.12.15 + Basurin & OSCE came under sniper fire, 27.12

....

Updates
25.3 .16 Foreign Minister Steinmeier in Moscow: "We need Russia to help resolve conflicts". Highlights insufficient progress implementing Minsk-2.

27.1.16 Constitutional amendments: Russia's position in Minsk talks:
 * the vote on the Constitution of Ukraine should be tightly linked to the simultaneous adoption of the amendments to Articles 1 and 10 of the law on the special status of Donbass by giving special status of a permanent framework according to "Steinmeier formula";
 * revision of the amendments to the law on the special status should be agreed in the contact group;
 * A legal formula has to be found that guarantees that paragraph 18 of the transitional provisions of the Constitution will refer to the current wording of articles 2-9 of the law on the special status and to new, agreed by the contact group, wording of Articles 1 and 10;
 * This formula should be fixed (закрепить (Rus) = lit. 'fix, make firm'; here 'used'/'entered') in the Constitution of Ukraine;
 * it is also necessary to legislate in the Constitution of Ukraine, that the powers of those representatives elected in Donbass elections under a separate law will not be discontinued in 2017, as is envisaged in the constitutional reform for the rest of Ukraine

Ukraine Contact Group notes "good exchange of views" — OSCE official, TASS-English

11.1. 2016 Boris Gryzlov visited Kiev. Next trilateral group meeting is on 13.1.2016 in Minsk.

Normandy four agreed to extend Minsk agreements into the year of 2016, TASS, Dec. 30, 2015

24.12.2015 Kuchma fools around trying to reinterpret Minsk agreements, demanding border control and in effect DPR/LPR disarmament prior to elections. This is not what was agreed (and could not possibly be agreed the way he tries to put it now, with Novorossia advancing militarily at the time of the agreement). Dirty games now, and so not surprisingly no progress... 18.11.2015 Ukraine did not show up for a contact group meeting where a law on special elections in Donbas was to be discussed. Previously, it was reported that sides could not reach an agreement. According to Pushilin, agenda included a ban for Ukrainian political parties to participate in local elections in Donbas, mechanism of participation for temporary displaced persons, and amnesty law.

15.3 Minsk 3 ? It is rumored that part of Ukrainian leadership is seeking a compromise and another Minsk meeting. Maybe an info release merely testing waters; but the essence of compromise is said to be a special mode to local government which covers the entire territory of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions (including those controlled by Ukraine), but these areas will be led by the people agreed as Kiev and Moscow, and the other members of the Minsk process (Germany and France). It is said that a similar proposal was made a year ago after a meeting involving Kuchma, Medvedchuk, and DPR, but Poroshenko refused to consider it and started the ATO instead. Ukrainian media claim that the plan is actually coming from "representatives of Moscow".
 * Kremlin 'melancholically denied' (Cassad) re-interpretations/free interpretations of Minsk TASS

12.6.15 Poroshenko expects to submit de-centralization bill to Rada by the end of parliamentary session in July
 * other constitutional changes proposed by the sides: see news entry for 9.6.15 above

10.6.15 Kuchma: Russia insists on including Novorosiia representatives into tripartite liaison group, Normandy format; but his is not acceptable to us; they are included as consultants.

17-19.03 Russia called for a UNSC closed door meeting to discuss Ukraine breaking Minsk 2 agreements. Later Lavrov criticized the US position, and indicated further diplomatic moves and planned meetings in in Normandy format 16.03 Special status law requires elections based on laws of Ukraine prior to such special status. LPR/DPR were not consulted about this (although that is required in Minsk 2 agreements). With leaders of LPR/DPR and Soviets recently elected already, another elections will be problematic. There were no local elections though, may be local elections can be arranged in a way acceptable to both sides.

14.03 Poroshenko introduced special status law for Rada consideration -TASS quoting Rada site.

13.03 Zakharchenko and Plotniskii write to Hollande and Merkel about Ukraine not fulfilling its obligations: not following schedule on heavy weapons withdrawal; (most importantly) Rada has not started discussing special status for Donetsk, Lugansk regions--that work is supposed to finish by 14 March; continued economic blockade.

27.02 UNSC meeting on Ukraine started with OSCE report, highlighting state of affairs and challenges OSCE faces. Overall partial calming of warfare in the past several days noted. Neither side was willing to provide details of heavy weapons they posses, or their exact destination after proposed withdrawal. Technology (e.g. satellite), experts, and procedures need to be upgraded for OSCE to fulfill its required mission (video of OSCE presentation in Russian translation is here, other languages not found at this time)
 * abc news report dailystar SBS
 * Churkin gives a brief account of the UNSC closed door meeting TASS-English

24.02 FM meeting in Normandy format ended in Paris; heavy weapons withdrawal, verification, Debaltsevo were discussed, nothing new signed. Germany has concerns with implementation.

19.02 Poroshenko has held a phone conversation in the Normandy format, told them "not to pretend that the events in Debaltseve meet the Minsk agreements". He has also urged to elaborate clear guarantees for the possible attempts of violating the given agreements in the future. (Debaltsevo situation was known in Minsk--indeed he should not be pretending).

18.02 Poroshenko plans to ask for UN peacekeepers

17.02 UN SC unanimously approved a resolution supporting Minsk agreements. (Yet, testy rhetoric noted by Churkin)

14.02 Russia introduced UN SC resolution approving Minsk agreements of February 12. So far, English speaking world, UK and USA, did not clearly expressed their positions, and it may give an indication. So far, it was along the lines that Russia has to deliver, and may be further sanctioned otherwise, while Ukraine has nothing to deliver, and will not be sanctioned for failures. Russian officials called for a change of such approach, taking a position that the conflict is internally Ukrainian and Russia is not a participant (example). While Russian media are making presentations indicating that it is the USA who is a participant, in Kiev overlord capacity (example).

12.02 Two documents were agreed: 10.02 Contact Group agrees (a plan of)  heavy troops withdrawal, ceasefire regime -TASS
 * on measures on implementing Minsk protocol (English language PDF here). Ceasefire starting on February 15; separation of heavy weapons (from actual line for Ukraine, and from September 19 line for Novorossia; this enlarges separation), starting in 2 days from ceasefire, finishing in 14 days. All for all prisoners exchange, to finish in 5 days from separation begins. Time limits are given for all major steps. Return of border control to Ukraine is agreed to occur after local elections and constitutional reform (taking interests of breakaway regions into account)
 * declaration of support of Ukrainian peace settlement. This includes support and control of implementation.
 * It may be the case that sides do not make binding obligations, but approve and support listed measures (language is a bit vague, if something is broken later, or sides do not agree whether later vague steps actually occurred, not clear exactly what will follow)

Plotniskii, Zakharchenko press statement (English subs)

Still no direct contact between official Kiev and Novorossia. -(Mentioned by Putin in his press statement as one of the reasons negotiations took so long, had to go back and forth with Trilateral Group).

08.02 After telephone conference today, it is said that Normandy four to meet in Minsk on 11.02 if some positions will be resolved prior to that. Details of positions not explained. (Lukashenko talked to both Putin and Poroshenko about this and is happy and keen for them to come to Minsk)

06.02 Hollande-Merkel-Putin talks are finished in Moscow, it is said that a Normandy format document is being prepared based on meetings in Kiev and Moscow. Phone conference call in Normandy format expected on Sunday. (--Putin spokesman Peskov, TASS).) Putin off to Sochi, meets Lukashenko and rests; Hollande and Merkel also departing Moscow.

Petro Poroshenko, Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande insist on the immediate and unconditional ceasefire in the Donbas

Plotniskii and Zakharchenko press conference -explains Republics position why it is not their fault that latest Minsk meeting did not succeed (English subs).

Victor Baloga, Governor of trans-Carpathian region of Ukraine, proposes a referendum on whether to continue war or separate from the rebel regions. Also, Gennady Korban, assistant Governor, Dnepropetrovsk, proposes to choose between war and an agreement.

Maps


Dragon-First maps; Kot Ivanov.

Total
8.7.15 Zakharchenko, at a a joint LPR/DPR press conference: "In 2015,  1212 people were killed, including 25 children under the age of 18 years ". During the conflict in 2014, 3864 DPR peeople  died, including 522 women and 65 children. "That is more than 5000 of our people were killed just because they are residents of Donbass." (unclear is this civilian deaths or total deaths--probably total). More than 6,200 people, including women, children and the elderly were seriously injured and became disabled for life were. More than two thousand DPR inhabitants are missing.

14.8.15 From the start of hostilities, 5061 people were killed, among them 4295 men and 766 women, according to the Office of the Commissioner for Human Rights in DPR; and according to the Center for Emergency Medical Aid, 6100 were wounded Dan-news, 14.8.15. The figure is close to the one given by Zakharchenko in July (he had a higher number of 5076, so a small discrepancy here)

Children killed
3.12.15 DPR ombudsman: during the conflict, almost 80 children were killed in Donbass, Rossiiskaia Gazeta, 3.12.2015. According to DPR ombudsman Yana Chepikova, uring the hostilities, 78 children were killed in DPR, 313 were injured, 35 of them seriously injured. In LPR, 30 children were killed according to data available.

Military Casualties
19.02 Zakharchenko: Ukrainian losses in Debaltsevo cauldron may be up to 3 -3.5 thousand killed. There are plans to release or exchange those taken prisoners.

16.02 UAF: estimated 60 killed; NAF 2 killed, 21 wounded (source).

14.02 for the day and up to the ceasefire started: UAF lost 111 killed, NAF lost 8 killed, 28 wounded -Basurn

13.02 up to 100 UAF killed  Basurin, DPR

12.02 Day + night, UAF lost 169 killed (links in the news section)

08.02 LPR commander Maxim Martakov, a military policeman, and 6 fighters were killed under Chernukhino. They provided corridor for civilians. 11 UAF soldiers were killed, 29 wounded (Basurin)

04.02.15 UAF losses: 21 killed

03.02.15 UAF losses estimated at 79 killed.

02.02.15 UAF losses estimated at 130 killed.
 * Totals. In 29 days, up to ceasefire starting, 2760 UAF killed, 60 taken prisoners -Basurn
 * In 22 days since fighting restarted, 2056 UAF killed (Basurin)
 * 17 Jan.-3 Feb. UAF losses estimated at 1738 killed, 52 taken prisoners (Basurin, DPR).

Civilian Casualties
According to the Head of the DNI, the year the war seriously injured for life became disabled more than 6,200 people, including women, children and the elderly. More than two thousand inhabitants DNI missing. 08.02 Many instances of shelling of Donetsk with MLRS (including Uragans), and artillery. One very powerful explosion (videos available) was reported as well. Later it was said that a chemical plant producing paints and dry mixes in Donetsk was hit by a heavy artillery shell (DPR did not confirm that it was ammunition plant); preliminary information is that nobody was killed in that explosion.

07.02 After ceasefire ended on 6.02, Ukraine attempted an attack on the whole front line; the attack was repelled. 6 civilians were killed, 15 wounded in Donetsk due to shelling by Ukraine from the North-West.

05.02. Shelling by Ukraine had 7 civilians killed, 44 wounded, most of them in Donetsk. Schools, hospitals, kindergartens hit. Ukraine is using Smerch MLRS; range is 80 km; a full salvo covers an area of 8 football fields.

04.02 Donetsk hospital shelled, 5 killed, 5 wounded. Civilian objects destroyed: Donetsk 17, Makeevka 28, Gorlovka 2

02.02.15 16 killed, 34 wounded in DPR and LPR combined. Civilian areas hit by MLRS, Makeevka and Donetsk, (13), (14) on opolchenie map, 02.02.2015

22.01 Donetsk bus shelled at least 8 killed, 13 injured
 * Residents react abusively to UAF 'cyborg' officer captured earlier at the Airport and brought to the scene

13.01 Volnovakha bus: 12 killed, 18 wounded (talk). 24.01 Mariupol market shelling: 30 killed, 83 injured (talk).
 * Totals. Latest official UN figure: 224 civilians killed and 545 wounded in the three weeks leading up to 1 February. According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), the overall death toll now exceeds 5,358 people, with another 12,235 wounded since mid-April last year (Deaths here are likely certified, and mostly civilian).

Gorlovka
In 6 months ending July 2015, 164 civilians were killed, including 16 children; 501 were wounded, including 42 are children DAN news,  quoting city administration data,31 July 2015.

Military Hardware Lost
23.02 Zakharchenko: 'Poroshenko is our main ally'. In 5 days at Debaltsevo, 170 UAF tanks were captured or destroyed; most of them can be repaired. Also, 50 artillery pieces; they did not even count mortars. Ammunition, still move it out by railroad wagon-loads.

19.02 In Debaltsevo, opolchenie captured 265 pieces of UAF military equipment. 28 tanks, 63 BMP/BTR, 145 vehicles, 16 anti-aircraft guns, 13 artillery and mortar pieces were found in good condition and have been adopted by the DPR army. Also captured: about 1000 firearms, 39 ammunition storages and 2 railroad card with ammunition -Basurin

14.02 4 Grads launchers and ammunition seized by NAF near Debaltsevo -Basurn

03.02.15 Two UAF SU 25 were shot down (near Commisarovka and Chernukhino; one pilot bailed out). Also a drone shot down near Irvino

02-03.02.15 UAF lost 5 tanks, 1 BMP, 11 artillery pieces, one plane (and/or one Tochka U)
 * Totals: for 29 days, up to ceasefire: UAF lost 3 airplanes, 1 helicopter, 205 tanks, 182 BMP, BTR, MTLB, 208 field artillery guns, 124 vehicles  -Basurn
 * for 22 days since fighting restarted: UAF lost 3 planes, 1 helicopter, 168 tanks, 133 BMP/BTR, 124 artillery pieces, 94 vehicles
 * 17 Jan.-3 Feb. UAF lost 3 planes, 1 helicopter, 146 tanks, 114 BMP/BTR, 91 artillery pieces, 64 vehicles

Banned Weapons Use


04.02.15 UAF shelled Telmanovo from Mirnoe by Smerch MLRS, civilian houses destroyed

03.02.15 Luhansk and Donetsk: Smerch, heavy MLSRS with cluster munitions used by Ukraine.

02.02. Report on phosphorous ammunition used against civilians by Ukraine.

28.01. OSCE confirms (03.02 report) that cluster Smerch munitions were used against Artemivskyi district of Luhansk, shelling was from NNW. (Shelling done by Ukraine).

Economy

 * Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten: "The IMF has pumped billions in recent months into the Ukrainian financial system to stabilize the country's banks. Approximately $ 1.8 billion were going to the largest financial institution Private Bank, which is controlled by the oligarch Igor Kolomoiski. But instead of investing the money into the Ukrainian economy, Kolomoiski has managed to channel the emergency loans through a network of offshore companies abroad". Ukrainian anti-corruption project "Our Money" ('Наші гроші' (ukr) = "Nashi Groshi") is quoted as offering an explanation of the scheme, involving a 'purchase' of foreign goods which were never delivered, using a credit from Private Bank, and the payment deposited to accounts in off-shore branches of the Privat Bank.


 * Ukrainian $18 bln debt (held in bonds) will receive a 20% 'haircut'. However, between 2021 and 2040 investors will receive up to 40 per cent of the value of Ukraine’s annual economic growth above 4 per cent, although total payments will be capped at 1 per cent for the first four years.    Ukrainian GDP is 177.4 billion USD ‎(2013) -by google search. It went down quite a lot in 2014; but the IMF projection is 134 bln USD in 2020. One percent of that in growth is 1.3 bln; such amount may be paid to investors for 20 years bringing 26 bln USD. Write-off amount is about 3.6 bln USD. This wonderful deal is called a 'win-win' by Ukrainian finance minister and the Guardian . Franklin Templeton is one of the largest investors involved. Russia has 3 bln USD in Ukrainian debt and is not participating in the deal.(Vasili Muravitskii/Cassad brought up this matter).

News Sources

 * Opolchenie version of events. Rusvesna-news (rusvesna.su, Russian),   (rusvesna.su, English) , (rusnext.ru, Russian).
 * Official Donetsk People Republic (DPR) news dan-news.info.
 * Oplot TV-Donetsk Live now, youtube channel vk Oplot TV
 * First Republican Channel-DPR youtube vk ('official channel of DPR', created in April 2014, and unofficially broadcasting some material online; possibly re-broadcasting Russia 24 in their vacant slots.
 * Lugansk People Republic (LPR) news: LPR Sovet (legislature) site, news, luganskallnews.ru,  news, lug-info.com


 * Ukrainian version of events: TSN (Ukraine)(Ukrainian or Russian), Channel 5 -Ukraine
 * Rada; President.


 * OSCE SMM-Ukraine
 * TASS Chronicle-link to daily updates, (Russian),  TASS  - Ukraine (English) (easiest to search).
 * Daily Press Briefings - US Department of State

English-language sources

 * DONI, based in Donetsk
 * TASS (Engl)
 * OSCE SMM

Documentaries

 * "Les masques de la revolution", Russian dubbed over French version, Feb. 1, 2016
 * 'Times of Donbass' (Italian/Russian), Jan 12, 2016

Opinion Polls

 * IRI poll, January 2016
 * Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), July 2015
 * 13,3% would vote for the party "Block of Petro Poroshenko"
 * 12,8% - for the All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland" (Yulia Timosenko)
 * 6,8% - for the party "Union Samopomich" (Sadovyi)
 * 5,8% - for the Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko,
 * 4,1% - for the party "Opposition block" (Boyko) --formerly 'Party of Regions'-Yanukovich
 * 3,1% - for the party "Civil position"
 * 3,0% - for the party "Right Sector"
 * 3,2% - have crossed all the parties /spoiled bulletin
 * 14,3% - chose not to vote,
 * 23,5% - hard to choose,
 * 2,6% - refusal
 * 2,6% - refusal


 * Source: Socio-Political Situation In Ukraine: July 2015. Report also have opinions on various peace/Russia issues, by region (English).


 * How Do The Attitude Of Ukrainians To Russia And Russians To Ukraine Has Changed


 * In DPR/LPR, polling is done by Center for Sociological Study 'Special Status' (Центр социологических исследований «Особый статус» -russ.) Here is their opening presentation.  Poll results are published by news sources.
 * DPR poll conducted in the beginning of August in 19 DPR towns, 5900 people took part, 5% statistical error
 * 43 % for DPR to join the Russian Federation (33.8% 3 months ago)
 * 17 % for DPR to be independent ('sovereign') (42.8 % 3 months ago)
 * 18 % for the 'creation of a joint state' (unclear what that would be exactly- some sort of autonomy aligned with Russia)
 * 11 % ('not more than')  for DPR as a part of Ukraine. 14.9 % see some future with Ukraine following Minsk agreements (18.8 % 3 months ago)

Abbreviations Used
DPR: Donetsk People Republic (prime minister: Alexander Zakharchenko)

LPR: Lugansk People Republic (head: Igor Plotniskii)

JCCC Joint Center for Control and Co-ordination, consists of Ukrainian and Russian military officers,- tries to mediate to have ceasefire implemented.

MLRS: Multiple Launch Rocket System, Grad/Uragan/Smerch. Uragan or Smerch typically have cluster munitions

UAF (=AFU): Ukrainian Armed Forces

NAF (=AFN): Opolchenie, Novorossia Armed Forces

OSCE: Organization for Security and Co‑operation in Europe

RSG: recon and subversion group

SMM: Special Monitoring Mission-OSCE