US covert war on Syria


 * ''This article is about the US war against the Syrian government. For the US war against ISIS, see U.S. Air Strikes in Syria.



What we know

 * ''First, let’s establish what we do know. Based on multiple reports over the past three-and-a-half years, we know that the Central Intelligence Agency set up a secret program of arming, funding and training anti-Assad forces. This has been reported by major outlets, including the New York Times, The Guardian, Der Spiegel and, most recently, the Washington Post, which—partly thanks to the Snowden revelations—detailed a program that trained approximately 10,000 rebel fighters at a cost of $1 billion a year, or roughly 1/15th of the CIA’s official annual budget.


 * ''In addition to the CIA’s efforts, there is a much more scrutinized and far more publicized program by the Department of Defense to train “moderate rebels,” of which only a few dozen actually saw battle. The Pentagon program, which began earlier this year and is charged with fighting ISIS (rather than Syrian government forces), is separate from the covert CIA operation. It has, by all accounts, been an abysmal failure.


 * ''One thing the DoD’s rebel training program hasn’t been a failure at, however, is helping credulous reporters rewrite history by treating the Pentagon program as the only US effort to train Syrian rebels–now or in the past. As the US’s strategy in Syria is publicly debated, the CIA’s years-long program has vanished from many popular accounts, giving the average reader the impression the US has sat idly by while foreign actors, Iranian and Russian, have interfered in the internal matters of Syria.
 * — Down the Memory Hole: NYT Erases CIA’s Efforts to Overthrow Syria’s Government, FAIR, September 20, 2015


 * ''The Liwa Suqour al-Jabal, whose fighters have attended military training organized by the Central Intelligence Agency in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, was also hit last week by Russian raids as Moscow began its air campaign in support of Damascus. New strikes targeted the group's main weapons depots in western Aleppo province and completely destroyed them late on Tuesday, its commander Hassan Haj Ali told Reuters on Wednesday via an Internet messaging service.
 * — Russian warplanes in Syria destroy U.S.-trained rebels' weapons depots: commander - Reuters, October 7, 2015

Timeline

 * CIA Interventions in Syria: A Partial Timeline - Michael S. Rozeff, October 3, 2015
 * WikiLeaks Reveals How the US Aggressively Pursued Regime Change in Syria, Igniting a Bloodbath, Robert Naiman, truthout reprint of chapter 10 of the book "The WikiLeaks Files", Verso Books, 2015

2011

 * White House: Syria regime has "lost legitimacy" CBS/AP/ July 12, 2011
 * The United States said Tuesday that Syrian President Bashar Assad has failed to prove himself a worthy leader nearly two months after being challenged by President Obama to guide his country toward a democratic transition or leave power.
 * In endorsing Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton's declaration that Assad has "lost legitimacy," the Obama administration moved closer to openly declaring its desire for regime change in Syria.


 * BFP Exclusive: Syria- Secret US-NATO Training & Support Camp to Oust Current Syrian President, Sibel Edmonds, November 21, 2011
 * BFP Exclusive: US-NATO-Chechen Militia Joint Operations Base, Sibel Edmonds, November 22, 2011
 * BFP Exclusive: Developing Story: Hundreds of US-NATO Soldiers Arrive & Begin Operations on the Jordan-Syria Border, Sibel Edmonds, December 10, 2011

2012

 * August 12, 2012: date of a now-declassified Defense Intelligence Agency memo outlining the state of and gaols in the evolving Syria conflict. It says in part "THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING A DECLARED OR UNDECLARED SALAFIST PRINCIPALITY IN EASTERN SYRIA (HASAKA AND DER ZOR), AND THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT THE SUPPORTING POWERS TO THE OPPOSITION WANT, IN ORDER TO ISOLATE THE SYRIAN REGIME…”. (see Levant Report)
 * The list of "supporting powers" is comprised of the US and several allies.
 * Sept. 11, 2012, US Ambassador Stevens killed in Benghazi, Libya while organizing transfer of Libyan arms to Syria via Turkey.
 * U.S.-Approved Arms for Libya Rebels Fell Into Jihadis’ Hands - The New York Times, December 5, 2012
 * ''The Obama administration (not the CIA, not the State Department) secretly gave its blessing to arms shipments to Libyan rebels from Qatar last year, but American officials later grew alarmed as evidence grew that Qatar was turning some of the weapons over to Islamic militants, according to United States officials and foreign diplomats. But in the months before, the Obama administration clearly was worried about the consequences of its hidden hand in helping arm Libyan militants, concerns that have not previously been reported.
 * ''The experience in Libya has taken on new urgency as the administration considers whether to play a direct role in arming rebels in Syria, where weapons are flowing in from Qatar and other countries. The Obama administration did not initially raise objections when Qatar began shipping arms to opposition groups in Syria, even if it did not offer encouragement, according to current and former administration officials. But they said the United States has growing concerns that, just as in Libya, the Qataris are equipping some of the wrong militants.
 * Obama Blocked Rebel Arms - Adam Entous, WSJ, February 12, 2013 (published in 2013, but discusses events in 2012 and 2011)
 * ''White House Opposed Pentagon, CIA, State Plan to Ship Weapons to Syrian Resistance
 * ''A proposal to (OVERTLY?) arm Syrian rebels was backed by the Pentagon, the State Department and the Central Intelligence Agency, but the White House decided not to act on the plan.
 * ''Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, revealed publicly for the first time at a Senate hearing on Thursday that they supported the proposal last year (2012) by senior officials including then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and then-CIA director David Petraeus.
 * ''In the months after the start of the conflict in Syria in March 2011, the Pentagon, the State Department and the CIA began presenting the White House with multiple options for intervening with force, covert action or arms supplies. Options have included establishing a no-fly zone, bombing Syrian aircraft in their hangars, and funneling light arms and actionable intelligence to a select group of American-vetted rebels.
 * ''In the months after the start of the conflict in Syria in March 2011, the Pentagon, the State Department and the CIA began presenting the White House with multiple options for intervening with force, covert action or arms supplies. Options have included establishing a no-fly zone, bombing Syrian aircraft in their hangars, and funneling light arms and actionable intelligence to a select group of American-vetted rebels.

2013

 * Arms Airlift to Syria Rebels Expands, With Aid From C.I.A. - C. J. Chivers and Eric Schmitt, The New York Times, March 24, 2013
 * BFP Syria Coverage Track Record: What & When We Exposed, and the MSM- Quasi Alternative Culprits Who Fought Our Exposés, Sibel Edmonds, August 29, 2013

2015

 * Exclusive: Obama Cuts Off Syrian Rebels’ Cash - The Daily Beast, January 27, 2015
 * Now the truth emerges: how the US fuelled the rise of Isis in Syria and Iraq - Seumas Milne. The Guardian, June 3, 2015 20.56 BST
 * Secret CIA effort in Syria faces large funding cut - Greg Miller and Karen DeYoung, The Washington Post, June 12, 2015
 * ''The House Intelligence Committee recently voted unanimously to cut as much as 20 percent of the classified funds flowing into a CIA program that U.S. officials said has become one the agency’s largest covert operations, with a budget approaching $1 billion a year.
 * Dodgy Turks: ‘NATO Ally’ Helped al Qaida To Kidnap New US-trained Rebel Fighters - 21WIRE, August 26, 2015
 * ''The House Intelligence Committee recently voted unanimously to cut as much as 20 percent of the classified funds flowing into a CIA program that U.S. officials said has become one the agency’s largest covert operations, with a budget approaching $1 billion a year.
 * 'The devil made me do it': Obama's foreign policy just reached a new low - Michael B Kelley and Brett LoGiurato,  Business Insider, Sep. 19, 2015
 * Down the Memory Hole: NYT Erases CIA’s Efforts to Overthrow Syria’s Government, Adam Johnson, FAIR, September 20, 2015 (Radio interview with the author about the article)
 * Obama's Islamic State War Czar Stepping Down - Josh Rogin & Eli Lake, September 22, 2015
 * David Petraeus urges Obama to credibly threaten Assad’s air force in Syria - Spencer Ackerman. The Guardian, September 22, 2015
 * Western backers end support for Syrian rebels attempting to seize Daraa, Middle East Eye, September 25, 2015
 * The most recent offensive, dubbed Operation Southern Storm, began on 25 June. It was planned, equipped and directed by the [Military Operations Centre (MOC) in Amman], which is staffed by senior military figures from 14 countries including the US, Europe and the Arab Gulf. The MOC provides approved rebel groups with weapons, ammunition and salaries for fighters, and in return, the MOC directs the actions of the groups it supports.


 * NY Times, "Obama Administration Halts Program to Train Syrians to Combat ISIS", 9.10.2015
 * ''A senior defense official said that the remaining training “will be much more minimal” than the previous program. The Central Intelligence Agency runs a separate program to train and arm selected groups, many of which are now battling Syrian army units backed by Russian air power.
 * Officials: Before Russian bombs, CIA rebels had Syrian gains - Ken Dilanian, AP, Oct. 10, 2015 (NYT)
 * ''CIA-backed rebels in Syria, who had begun to put serious pressure on President Bashar Assad's forces, are now under Russian bombardment with little prospect of rescue by their American patrons, U.S. officials say.
 * ''The CIA began a covert operation in 2013 to arm, fund and train a moderate opposition to Assad. Over that time, the CIA has trained an estimated 10,000 fighters, although the number still fighting with so-called moderate forces is unclear.
 * ''The effort was separate from the one run by the military, which trained militants willing to promise to take on IS exclusively. That program was widely considered a failure, and on Friday, the Defense Department announced it was abandoning the goal of a U.S.-trained Syrian force, instead opting to equip established groups to fight IS.
 * CIA went to Moscow 10 days before the air campaign.
 * "Wie "Bild am Sonntag" unter Berufung auf US-Geheimdienstkreise berichtet, trafen sich bereits in der vergangenen Woche führende Delegationen der CIA und des russischen Auslandsgeheimdienstes SWR in Moskau"


 * Did U.S. weapons supplied to Syrian rebels draw Russia into the conflict? - Liz Sly. The Washington Post, October 11, 2015
 * ''American antitank missiles supplied to Syrian rebels are playing an unexpectedly prominent role in shaping the Syrian battlefield, giving the conflict the semblance of a proxy war between the United States and Russia, despite President Obama’s express desire to avoid one.
 * ''The U.S.-made BGM-71 TOW missiles were delivered under a two-year-old covert program coordinated between the United States and its allies to help vetted Free Syrian Army groups in their fight against President Bashar al-Assad. Now that Russia has entered the war in support of Assad, they are taking on a greater significance than was originally intended.
 * ''The TOW missile program overseen by the CIA is entirely separate from a failed program run by the Pentagon that was intended to influence the outcome of the other war being waged in Syria, the one in the northeastern part of the country against the Islamic State.
 * ''The CIA program got underway before the Pentagon one, in early 2014, with the goal of propping up the flagging rebellion against Assad’s rule by delivering training, small arms, ammunition and the antitank missiles, which have proved instrumental in eroding the government’s key advantage over the lightly armed rebel force — its tanks and heavy armor.
 * (Note, other weapons were delivered by the CIA starting in 2011.)
 * Obama Won’t Admit the Real Targets of Russian Airstrikes - Gareth Porter, October 16, 2015 (mirror) - Links

Weapon Drops

 * 21st Century Wire US Airdrops 50 Tons of Ammo to ‘Rebels’ After ISIS Loses Most Supplies in Russian Airstrikes
 * Despite cancelling their ‘rebel’ training program, the US has now airdropped 50 tons of ammunition for smalls arms, along with grenades, into the ISIS hotbed of Northern Syria.


 * Fox News, October 12 reports the drop included (only?) ammunition for personal rifles, and "originally was intended for the U.S. military's "train and equip" mission, the official said. But that program was canceled last week." As for where:
 * The 50 tons of supplies were airdropped into Al-Hasakah province, home to Syrian Kurds, Arabs and a minority Assyrian community. ... "All the pallets reached friendly forces," the official said, adding that the drop "looked similar to what we did in Kobani."

According to Van Linge's Situation in Syria map, ISIS has minimal presence in Hasakah (northeast corner), but there are some government-held areas and even areas of joint Kurdish-government/loyalist control (like in the capitol, and Qamishli on the border). Otherwise it's held by Kurdish YPG militias, not in cooperation with FSA as is the case in Kobane. This is interesting given the Kobane precedent, where weapons were delivered to FSA and not Kurds, to avoid rifling Turkey (mentioned in above report). The likely recipients this time will be YPG, depending on where, either to push ISIS south or to attack the last government-held areas.


 * Saleh Moslem: 50 tons of ammunition delivered, more are underway, Firat News Agency, October 14, 2015
 * Moslem said “These weapons have been given not only to us but also to the Arab groups we act together. ... PYD co-chair lastly stated that operations against Raqqa and Jarablus are on the table and that they are working only for the timing of the operations at the moment. He added that Russia would be positive about the operation.

Both mentioned cities are well to the west, adjascent to areas of joint PYD-FSA control, so the pattern is not much different. Still, Turkish Prime Minister Davutoğlu's threatened that “we could intervene (against) the PYD”, to which Moslem responded they would defend themselves if attacked by Turkey, but had no plans to attack them or transfer weapons to the PKK.

A day later, the YPG spokesperson Redur Xalil released a statement saying that Saleh Moslem doesn't speak for the YPG and hasn't detail knowledge of military operations. The US, he says, "knows to who they sent weapons", likely referring to US statements insisting that "Arab groups" had received the ammo. Curiously on the same day, a new coalition of YPG and some regional Arab groups was announced and named Syrian Democratic Forces. In their founding declaration they thanked the US-led coalition for their support.

US needs a new strategy?

 * Henry Kissinger, A Path Out of the Middle East Collapse, WSJ, 16.10.15

"With Russia in Syria, a geopolitical structure that lasted four decades is in shambles. The U.S. needs a new strategy and priorities."

"The destruction of ISIS is more urgent than the overthrow of Bashar Assad"

"it is preferable for ISIS-held territory to be reconquered either by moderate Sunni forces or outside powers than by Iranian jihadist or imperial forces."

"For Russia, limiting its military role to the anti-ISIS campaign may avoid a return to Cold War conditions with the U.S."


 * Stephen Cohen: 'There is no Alternative' to Putin's Strategy in Syria' sputniknews.com, 17.10.15.

"US has three options. The first one is to do what American hawks, including Senator John McCain, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and some other Republicans are advocating. They essentially urge to enforce a no-fly zone over Syria and shoot down Russian planes if they violate it. The second option is to stand aside and see what Putin could accomplish with his allies. The third one, according to the Professor Emeritus of Russian Studies and Politics at NYU and Princeton, is to join Russia. Cohen sees the third option as the best choice for the Obama administration"

ACLOS and Related

 * Robert Ford, Weapons Inspector: The Rebellion Begins in Hama, Part 2 Adam Larson (Caustic Logic) Monitor on Massacre Marketing, July 26, 2015. Detailed relation of US. ambassador Robert Ford, arrived just ahead of the first protests, met with ... activists, egged them on, emphatically denied or glossed over their first militant victories (of great barbarity, by the way...)
 * Exactly where Ford needs a certain effect, he conjures the right words, even when those words are the most opposite of true. As soon as he saw clear evidence in the July 31 attacks that the violent insurrection in Hama was really underway, he needed all the cover he could find to help the seeds take root. So as soon as there were armed gangs running streets and bridges in Hama, he became more vocal than ever about this being a regime lie, by definition.