Talk:Aden airport rocket attack December 30 2020

Discussion
British officials attribute the attack on Aden airport to the 'Houthi's'. Ansarallah did not claim responsibility for it, as they have done for missile/drone attacks on Saudi and UAE. I do not think that it was the Houthis. I suspect that other elements, perhaps disgruntled with the Saudi UAE/STC deal, may have been to blame. Other factions including Tariq Afash's and Al-Islah might also be considered as potential suspects. Some commentators suspected the attack came from within STC. ALthough their leadership were part of the power sharing deal with Hadi govt, it's likely that it was an unpopular arrangement. --Diagonal (talk) 20:23, 8 February 2021 (UTC)

According to the Bellingcat missiles were launched from either Taiz airport or Dhamar Governate. Taiz airport is 136km from Aden airport and Dhamar governate is further away still. The footage from social media they take as evidence seems to be of crude rockets rather than ballistic missiles. What would be the max range of a rocket such as this? --Diagonal (talk) 16:11, 11 February 2021 (UTC)

The rocket featured in the video Bellingcat claims as evidence seems to be similar to a Qassam Rocket which only have a range of a few kilometers. The social media evidence produced by Bellingcat/Yemeni Archive of launches seems to be rockets of this type. The type of weapon the videos show would not be capable of anything near the range needed to hit Aden airport from the areas they're talking about. If someone has more background knowledge on rockets/missiles, please check if my conclusion is warranted.

That thing shown, will not fly further then Grad rocket, and probably will not do better then early versions of Grad rocket. It depends on a number of things, but I will estimate the range as anything between 3 and 12 km. CW can do better estimate, I guess, this given one is a rather crude version. --Resup (talk)

They say, latest Qassams are 20 km range; then it can match it; this is same as early Grad also; (and it is already a bit surprising for a crude estimate, though not impossible, and later Grads do even better) --Resup (talk) 00:24, 18 February 2021 (UTC). Yeah, 20 km is doable --Resup (talk) 01:33, 18 February 2021 (UTC)


 * My hunch FWIW is that the rockets probably were fired from nearer by in the Aden area. Al Islah which have fought in Aden previously would seem to me to be the faction most clearly motivated to carry this out. That's the line I think should be considered, with the official 'Huthis did it' narrative falling flat. --Diagonal (talk) 09:43, 10 April 2021 (UTC)

Should also be considered: The Giant's brigade faction have also been party to fighting against STC in Aden. --Diagonal (talk) 16:14, 29 April 2021 (UTC)

Potential indications from likely suspects

 * Yemen Press Reader December 2020 - See Cp6 Southern Yemen and Hadi govt
 * Gulf reconciliation means little for warring sides in Yemen's conflict - MEE, January 10, 2021

Al Islah/Brotherhood
See UAE_Saudi_proxy_conflict:_southern_seperatists_and_Hadi_government_in_exile
 * ISLAH WARY OF A HADI RECONCILIATION WITH THE STC - Sanaa Centre for Strategic Studies, December 17, 2021
 * Video: IM Arabic, February 9, 2021 - In a nature reserve, about 90 km from Aden Yemeni brotherhood built a military base for missile launchers and Turkish drones

There are reported to be three Yemeni Brotherhood (Al-Islah) military bases in the area around Tur al Baha (or Tor al-Bahah). Tur al Baha is approx 70km north-west of Aden Airport. The bases are located in the mountainous area south/south-east of Taiz city. Official investigators stated that the missiles came from the North-West. So the video evidence of the impacts would be consistent with an attack from that region. The apparently Turkish supported, Yemeni Brotherhood were not reconciled with the STC. This report from Feb 2021 claims Turkish supplied missile systems and drones are in place at one of the camps. A few days later January 5, 2021 reports that STC militias had launched operations against Al-Islah in Lahj region's strategic heights.


 * ...the announcement made by the STC indicates that it comes in response to the deployment of Islah militants on the heights of Tor al-Bahah, al Maqatirah and al-Madaribah areas under the pretext of freeing hostages. The new moves point to a steady escalation of tension between the two rivals, who have fought in recent time to take control of the strategic area overlooking Aden and the strategic base of Al-Anad which constitute a strategic difference in the battle to secure or bring down Aden.

Given the hostility between Turkey and the UAE, these forces would seem to be prime suspect for the airport attack. Which was executed with a high if not complete accuracy.--Diagonal (talk) 16:40, 12 August 2022 (UTC)

STC factions?

 * Southern Yemen military personnel threaten to take control of Aden presidential palace - Middle East Monitor, December 22, 2021
 * The Coordinating Council for Retired Military and Security personnel in southern Yemen have today threatened to take control of the presidential Al-Maashiq palace in the interim capital of Aden in addition to the city's airport and other facilities...

Also Hodhod News

Subsequently
 * https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1409634255571881988.html  a member of the airport guard battalion affiliated with #STC stormed the passenger terminal and threatened to detonate a bomb he was carrying in his hand, without giving reasons.