Talk:Bombing of Nord Stream pipelines

As initial reaction, I considered not too implausible that Russians would do it, as a kind of burning the bridges before a major battle/ having their back against a river like in Kulikov battle, a first major win against the Golden Horde. But I now consider it as _very_ unlikely. For all the time past collapse of the Soviet Union, the elites (and most of intelligentisa) were strongly pro-Western, and the elite was keen to enrich themselves by trading natural resources to the West. They have not crossed any rivers, and that is why 8 years of attempts at Minsk, and 'we have not even started' said recently and acted now. Yes, there was long-running build-up of strong resentment, but hope to roll all it back did not die. Yes, they shut the nordstream 1 "for repairs", but this is the usual tactics to put some pressure, while remaining in control. Now, the control is gone, and so the ability to put that pressure, with a big hole now in the middle of the pipeline. (Yet still, for better or worse, the proverbial river is still uncrossed, with Putin at the 4-regions signing ceremony still mentioning feeding and warming the Westerns).

Americans denied at the UN being behind. Amazingly, this even may be correct. They did not shell Russian cities and kill Russian soldiers and civilians with American weapons, the Ukrainians did.

Russians were in no danger to lose the ability to do slow repairs, for as long as they wish. If they decided to burn bridges (they did not), there is no reason to hide it. Clearly, only US/NATO or Russia has the capability, and whoever did it, they both would know who did. It can be only hidden from lesser allies or general population. Yes, you can make some mileage at home blaming the West, but this theme is by now fully saturated.

On the other side of the pond, either mad rush for more warfare, hot or economic, whatever; punish this, reward that, with chances to be out of it totally missed; or perhaps fear to have less control as result of elections and/or European politics

--Resup (talk) 12:30, 2 October 2022 (UTC)

PS. 7 bars = 70 meters depth of water.

US Navy P-8 Poseidons in the Baltic Sea
A US Navy P-8 Poseidon anti-submarine aircraft was circling over the explosion site on the night of the explosions. It may have been used to remotely detonate the bombs placed earlier in the BaltOps 2022 exercises by the USS Kearsarge group. The plane came from some faraway NATO base without a visible hex call-sign. It was first refueled over Poland before starting its its mission over the Baltic.

P-8 Poseidons do not fly in the Baltic too often. I search for previous sightings on the Internet. Here are some I found.
 * Boeing P-8 Poseidon seeks out submarines - June 13, 2015
 * ''The aircraft is equipped with three rotary launchers that hold 10 buoys each and three single launchers. Seventeen NATO and partner nations are participating in the 43rd iteration of the multinational maritime exercise BALTOPS 2015...
 * MOSCOW SAYS U.S. NAVY P-8 POSEIDON WAS HEADING AT HIGH SPEED TOWARDS RUSSIAN AIRSPACE BEFORE SU-30 INTERCEPT - The Aviation Geek Club, December 1, 2017
 * Report: Russian jet buzzes US spy plane over Baltic Sea - Navy Times, May 1, 2018
 * Russian fighter jet intercepts US reconnaissance plane over Baltic Sea - TASS, January 28, 2019
 * Russia Intercepts US Navy P-8 Poseidon Patrol Plane Over Baltic Sea - Business Insider, January 28, 2019
 * Amazing Mid- Air Refuelling of Navy's P- 8A Poseidon Aircraft - NationalDefence, June 11, 2020 (Refuelling over Poland)
 * Jamming @balticjam: US Navy Poseidon P-8. - September 22, 2020
 * Aerospace Intelligence @space_osint: US Navy (🇺🇸) P-8 Poseidon heading to the Baltic Sea. - January 13, 2022

None of the previous flight profiles match the low-altitude nighttime flight of the September 26th Poseidon.

'''In other news:
 * Scots-based Poseidon jets to protect North Sea pipelines - The Times, October 2, 2022

-- Petri Krohn (talk) 13:16, 3 October 2022 (UTC)

MonkeyWerx has more on the topic: According to the theory, the P-8 Poseidon launched torpedos at the pipeline. I do not know how torpedos would find and hit the buried pipeline, but maybe the USS Kearsarge mission located the pipeline and attached sonar reflectors or some other markers at the target sites. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 16:29, 9 October 2022 (UTC)
 * The Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Sabotage - MonkeyWerx, October 2022

RIA published Pentagon response, which claims that the plane was over North Sea at the time of the incident, and flew over Baltic Sea (after that) as a planned flight unrelated to the incidentt. FWIW. Gazprom account was that pressure drops were hours apart, and timing of the flight vs those incidents in unclear to me According to Eng audio of Kurpyanov presentation at UN, 2 am CET, leak in NS 2 detected by Gaskade/Caskade system; 6 am, detected by onshore system; 7.12 pm, drop in NS1 detected by controllers. Seismic events are reporteadly 2.03 am and 7.03 /7.04 pm (1, 2 . MonkeyWerx appears to show that Poseidon approached the overall area at about 2.30-3 am (cannot read off times from screen but that is what presenter says; after refueling, it is over NS at maybe 4 am, and it leaves the area at about 7 am. Unsure whether times are local; CET and Swedish or Danish times are the same. --Resup (talk) 00:10, 10 October 2022 (UTC)

More planes

 * Manu Gómez @GDarkconrad on Twitter, September 26, 2022, 10:19 UTC
 * USAF RC-135W Rivet Joint JAKE11
 * Royal Norwegian Air Force Falcon 20ECM RAVEN77 Electronic-warfare aircraft
 * Swedish Air Force GIV Korpen SVF623
 * USAF E8C Joint STARS REDEYE6
 * USAF KC135R 59-1520

Military exercises in the area

 * Ramstein Alloy 2022, 26-27 Sept 2022
 * Quill 2022, Estonia, 22-28 Sept 2022 --Resup (talk) 01:17, 7 October 2022 (UTC)