Talk:Douma Market Attack, August 2015

Start Notes
Sorry, I took too long putting this on the blog first. No time to copy over, with the pressing project, and the blog needs more traffic anyway. Some good findings already, like 95 victims at least dumped unclaimed in mass graves, 100 of 105 in the VDC list are adult males, etc. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:22, 18 August 2015 (UTC)
 * Later, much later it seems on my end: damn guys, nothing? :/ --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:54, 26 August 2015 (UTC)

Calls for Investigation
Were there any? I don't remember seeing anyone demanding an investigation. In fact, people like DeMistura used language suggesting one wasn't needed, the government denials were obvious lies to be dismissed out-of-hand. But in case there is any request, here's a space to cover it. --Caustic Logic (talk) 07:00, 30 August 2015 (UTC)

Timeline Questions
Human Rights Watch was told by a mix of activists and Douma local authorities "the four airstrikes hit the crowded markets, known locally as the al-Hal, al-Houboub, and al-Ghanam markets, at about noon. All three markets are within 500 meters of one another." No specific time is cited. Others say mid-day. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:02, 4 September 2015 (UTC)

The best visual measure (pending) is maybe from a photo (posted here, original link misplaced... Hi-Res) clearly some minutes before the video still I used to estimate an attack around 1:30 PM. That showed one massive blurred plume rising high, while this earlier and clearer photo shows four distinct plumes much earlier an smaller. Maybe THIS is ten minutes after? 20? Line of sight yet to determine, sun angle relative to that seems a bit to the left but almost from behind. (Early tries suggested it's filmed a bit from the west of the video still, closer to Douma, and the sunlight in maybe 194deg, around 1 PM ) Final estimate answer in time. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:02, 4 September 2015 (UTC)

One measure is when people started chattering about it. rebel-linked Douma Revolution on Twitter, should be a quickly informed source, has this timeline (all auto-translated from Arabic):


 * 1:27 PM 1st tweet "Urgent :: #دوما coordination :: huge explosions rocking the city, together with constant overflights of warplanes in the sky and ..."
 * Updates at 1:28, 1:42("Urgent :: #دوما :: flight coordination MiG flight now in Sky City always after targeting crowded city markets by citizens.")
 * 1:46 "martyrs and tens of injuries after the targeting system to market in the city with rockets vacuum..." etc.
 * 2:04 "warplanes massacre more than 200 wounded and 35 Shahid ..."
 * 2:19 first video
 * 2:23 more than 55 dead
 * 2:23 dead men and boys photo taken around 1:15
 * 2:36 market damage

--Caustic Logic (talk) 14:02, 4 September 2015 (UTC)


 * Indeed that account is on the ball. I wish I knew all accounts to check, but here are a few more informed sources, all getting their first breaking news out even later.


 * @LccSy 1:58 #ريف_دمشق Scores between martyrs and injuries...
 * @syriahr (SOHR) 2:26 The martyrdom and wounding of dozens more by targeting system for aircraft always ghouta Town East
 * @SyriaCivilDef 2:52

Conclusion from all this: it must be after 1 PM, which could be called "about noon" but not with great accuracy. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:09, 4 September 2015 (UTC)


 * Summary article at Monitor blog, preliminary findings: Douma Market Attack: Victims Dead Before the Attack? "The best attack time estimate of 1:00-1:25, plus this best-yet photo reading means the photo was taken anywhere from 25 minutes before the rockets hit to 30 minutes after." (Subject to refinement) --Caustic Logic (talk) 02:27, 6 September 2015 (UTC)

Another rough reading - at 0:35 in this video (MD3 on my blog list) is a scene at the park market shortly after the attack, it seems. I place this at the park's west end, facing almost due south. Minaret to the right is there, about 550 meters SSSW) nearest corners match, etc. That street runs 181, 1 deg. w of south. The view is about 2 degrees east of straight down it, so basically due south, maybe 179 or so. A shadow cast by due west sun would appear horizontal (across field of view - it would be about 5:15 pm). With sun from due south, shadows would look vertical - towards the lens. That would be the case at solar noon, one possible "about noon" - that would be 12:39 pm. This angle is between them, a bit closer to towards the camera. Trying to correct for foreshortening, I made a decent guess measure that came out to azimuth 211. This in the NOAA calculator, GNT+2, DST on, pin on Douma, August 16 2015, yields 1:25 PM. Azimuth is a clearer read than altitude, but this was rough. good range 1:15 to 1:35 - Response is underway, attacks some minutes before. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:42, 17 September 2015 (UTC)

Thermobaric rockets
The Douma Revolution tweet gives us an extremely useful piece of information. We finally know what a thermobaric rocket like the UMLACA is in Arabic! صواريخ فراغية translates to "Missiles vacuum".

A similar Google search produces this video on the first page. - Very important to the media vacuum missiles bombed Hrsta 29-10-2012 - Is this the same UMLACA that was shown to OPCW inspectors in August 2013?

Another page claims that thermobaric 220 mm BM-27 Uragan rockets have been fired at Jobar, maybe even BM-30 Smerch. A salvo of four BM-27 rockets could explain the four simultaneous explosions in Douma. I guess Douma would be out of the 2 km range of the UMLACA. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 00:46, 5 September 2015 (UTC)

Image search gives this Getty image from May 14, 2015: Syrian residents look at the damaged buildings after a warcraft belonging to Syrian army carried out vacuum bomb attack on Ayn Tarma town in the eastern Gouta region of Damascus, Syria. The damage is very similar to what we see in Douma.

Similar damage in Douma on February 9, 2015, claimed by "vacuum misiles."

This page says "Warplanes targeted by five missiles vacuum city Harasta Rural Damascus". Published 15 August 2015 at 5:41 pm. Is this related? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 01:04, 5 September 2015 (UTC)

For comparison, see these barrel bombs. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 04:59, 5 September 2015 (UTC)


 * I think the early plums look consistent - early high-rising, lots of heat, something of a mushroom shape - by the time of the first photo the columns have cooled off, stopped rising, and are just drifting on the wind (bottom part just horizontal) (will look at images soon), I imagine these can be delivered by jet like they say, and of course by various surface rockets like the Volcano/UMLACA, etc. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:57, 5 September 2015 (UTC)


 * Consistent clue: see damage image below - a palm tree's bark is still smoldering. The blast radius seems around 40 meters wide, longer along axis of travel (from the south). --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:12, 12 September 2015 (UTC)

Two photo spheres from Damascus from June 2015 seem to show buildings collapsed by thermobaric weapons. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 01:47, 17 September 2015 (UTC)

Arc of Attack?
When Robert Lewis wrote comparing the Douma attack with the 1995 Markale market shelling in Sarajevo, Bosnia, he mentioned this:
 * "I have visited the market in Sarajevo. An arc of attack was not apparent. Sightlines were few and very narrow. It would take exceptional skill, I think, to accurately and reliably hit it with the groupings and timings we are asked to believe in." 

And this was all with one surface-firing allegation vs. another. When one side claims a fighter jet strike, and no one even specifies the alternative but it's ground-based ... and there's an apparent arc of attack. If this is what he meant ... This is what I have mapped for 3 impacts. It seems there were 4 total, at least in the initial attack reported by 1:27PM. As I established comparing the two southwest views here, these must be the left-hand three, with the right hand impact some distance to the right/east/southeast. But considering the pattern of the other three, and apparent distances in the photo, I would suppose these two things: 1) it'll be as far from the last one as each of the others is from each other (equal spacing) 2) it will likely be in the same arc implied by the other three, E-SE of the last one. That arc might suggest a fixed-range surface rocket firing position to the south-southwest, distance unclear - the same basic direction the plume photo and video were taken from. Or, at any rate, it would be pretty odd for fighter jet impacts taken on different swoops to wind up with such an arc pattern, wouldn't it?

This is a useful photo (at Twitter res, better will help) compared to a Goole Earth view from a year ago. Blast took out the front fence, out into the market/street area - chipped the bottom only of the back wall, but walkway red tile roof blasted or burned away. Crater near the central structure. That's chipped right behind impact. Trees gone, pushed aside, burned, tall palm on the left was lit up high, its bark still smoldering. Low damage behind, higher damage up the sides and forward is the rule for slanted incoming rockets/missiles. This might have been FAE (thermobaric). Blast radius: app. 40 meters wide, around 60 meters on the axis of travel.

Apparent direction of travel then: almost due south, 182.5 degrees. On the arc described above, this would be the most southerly-origin impact. The line points to Mesraba outskirts or Beit Sawa (2.5-4 km out), range still not clear. The incoming angle may be fairly steep (not a massive forward trajectory), so relatively near. If I could get a view of the fourth impact, or a direction reading on the el-Hal market one, the difference COULD point to a narrower origin.

And that's presuming a surface origin, as I increasingly am. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:23, 12 September 2015 (UTC)


 * This video seems to show that the fourth blast site was in the steel framed warehouse, right next to you pink dot on the blog.
 * مجازر مدينة دوما اليوم مؤلم جدا 16-8-2015 براء عبد الرحمن
 * -- Petri Krohn (talk) 01:36, 17 September 2015 (UTC)
 * Great find! I actually saw that before but forgot about it. This must be the spot, as I was guessing from its size (almost too big to not hit) and market compatibility (more like the big covered market in Mariupol than like el-Hal, really). Here it's seen from I guess the southeast face. Not enough clues in the video to call the place in itself, but given that's the kind of place where the fourth hit must be ... Nothing I see to call firing direction (should be from left and behind, if my theory is right). I'll be double-checking, and looking into el-Hal. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:50, 17 September 2015 (UTC)
 * I'd say it his kind of middle of the building, closer to the camera than dead center, north-south, not sure but ... --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:50, 17 September 2015 (UTC)

Considering Petri's find of the fourth impact spot, about where I would guess, here's an updated arc graphic. Each impact centered quite close to where each impact seems centered, separately measured between each spot on Wikimapia. Will be a little wiggly. What we see is a uniform spread of 155 meters between each hit, coming though a bit wiggly. Even angle change between each, describing a small portion of a circle. Some psycho launched at one market, turned x degrees and launched again, and then did the same two more times. And did it to blame on "Assad," to synchronize with 100+ civilians killed, and to evoke Srebrenica's Markale market precedent. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:50, 17 September 2015 (UTC)

Rigor Mortis and Death Time
Okay, I started with a question about one victim seen in this earliest-posted photo of the gathered bodies of men and boys, the few dozen unwrapped bloody ones. That seems to be 2:53 PM (10 hours ahead of the Tweet time in California) On the left are two things that made me wonder: a man on a children's slide, feet sticking out, and a guy who looks a bit worried about the camera. The legs suggested rigor mortis. But looking closer. I now don't think so. Left leg only sticks out, and I think that's from his knee being above that curve, so that's just shin-straightness, not interesting.

First, can anyone talk me back into seeing that? It was interesting. Takes about 2 hours to start, more to get that stiff, and I have the plume of smoke video timed to about one hour before the photo (solar azimuth 220 degrees, +/- 4 degrees), around 1:35-1:50 PM. So attack, around 1:25-1:35. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:00, 27 August 2015 (UTC)

Otherwise, the bodies here seem relaxed and non-stiff an hour after the bombing. Arms lay flat, nothing sticks out. Maybe they are stiff and jut carried in carefully so they stay stiff in that set position, but I'll say relaxed like they should be. Besides being pulled from whatever and gathered suspiciously quick, there's a question in their lack of rigor mortis. Is this before or after it? It takes hours to start, and up 'til about a day after death to relax fully. Were they generally killed about an hour before the photo, or more like 24 hours before? To me, the blood on them seems pretty dry for having died just an hour ago or less, after injuries played their course. They don't seem to be bleeding out any more either. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:00, 27 August 2015 (UTC)

Less Clear Victims

 * Late note, there was a similar but smaller market bombing massacre on Aug. 12 with 29 dead men and boys, and unlisted girls ... (see VDC database) Some pictures given as the 16th are recycled from this. Several wrapped men, but bloodier - an infant completely charred black and crackling - a boy with his guts out, alive in clinic - a blood-and-dust covered baby, alive in clinic - mangled kid in yellow next to a flipped motorcycle - blood on flatbread - some others I'm trying to remember to note. A mass grave scene widely re-posted on Twitter is also re-cycled from somewhere. I'm sure I've seen it, but can't remember where. Maybe Daraya Massacre, 2012? The crying girl in maroon hijab (see here) (not the same photo, but the same girl, I think, is seen in other photos from the 12th, like this one - just a repeat market customer?)
 * Update, the crying girl photo on August 12. Devastating air strikes hit a busy marketplace in #Douma #Damascus #Syria photos @BassamKhabieh @reuterspictures. Became iconic "news" photo for another event 4 days later. --Caustic Logic (talk) 06:14, 7 September 2015 (UTC)


 * Those considered below do not fit this category; their pictures are from August 16, or from somewhewre further away in time or space. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:32, 27 August 2015 (UTC)

I have at least 4 child victims from two photos found on twitter, one common and one not. All point to horrible massacre activities. To me, anyway. Taking second thoughts. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:54, 26 August 2015 (UTC)

Head-Hacked Kids?
(links, pics maybe should be here too - eventually) three child victims, appears to be 2 girls and a boy, all aged like 3-7, alleged by tweets as part of some "Douma massacre" on August 16. My impression, sort-of averaged across all three as I can see: they and their clothes are intact, not dusty - I think they were not involved in a missile attack. They have slightly roughed up knees is all, aside from the fatal head wounds (signs mixed/uncertain, but no other wounds are seen). These are the only deceased girls I've seen, not recorded by the VDC who have no girls listed. The boy actually coule be listed - they miss female entries a lot, fill them in months later for some reason. Anyway, not named yet, killed differently from others and similarly to each other, in a manner consistent with execution. This furthers the evidence for another rebel massacre of gender-segregated captives. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:54, 26 August 2015 (UTC) and cleanup/additions Caustic Logic (talk) 12:39, 27 August 2015 (UTC)
 * http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2015/08/douma-market-attack-girl-victims.html


 * Updates, worked-In above: a 3rd girl alleged, horrible hacked-open head, brains and scalp everywhere. Not a shelling victim. Knees unseen. And a 4th, it seems, less clear, carried by at a distance, if not mis-attributed, see above. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:32, 27 August 2015 (UTC)and correction Caustic Logic (talk) 10:59, 29 August 2015 (UTC)

Drawn-and-Quartered Boy?
Attached to the burned faces study for now is this less clear case from a twitter photo about Douma Massacre, August 16. It might be easier to say if it's recycled from anywhere, a horrendous image. Not shared directly there, only semi-graphic pics. But a crop on his raw face, burned just like a mask over all his face and nothing else, worse than any others by far. And the scariest thing is what happened to roughly remove his arms at the elbows, and almost remove his legs at the knees. I had drawn-and-quartered - pulled apart between vehicles driving opposite ways - come into my mind, and it won't leave now. Wherever this picture is, it's no bomb or missile to detonate at each major joint like that (shoulders injured as well, hips unclear), I'm pretty sure of that. He's been pulled apart. Hopefully after death, but according to the medics in this rebel clinic, he's still alive at photo time. The full photo is really long, like his body now is. I hope that's some fakery. The oxygen bottle (?) tube doesn't seem to be in his mouth (pmr9 would know what that means) I'm glad this one isn't apparently on video.--Caustic Logic (talk) 12:54, 26 August 2015 (UTC)
 * http://libyancivilwar.blogspot.com/2015/08/douma-market-attack-burned-faces.html
 * It looks as if the doctor has given up on trying to insert an endotracheal tube and is attempting a tracheostomy instead. I think it's possible that the limb injuries could be explained by high-speed impacts or crushing.  But he circumscribed burn of the entire face and nowhere else is hard to explain - why would only the face be burned if it was an explosion? Pmr9 (talk) 22:08, 27 August 2015 (UTC)
 * Thanks for that. High-speed impact with weird dynamics, or crushing, could do this, but I think those would leave marks on the body. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:29, 27 August 2015 (UTC)


 * Updates, worked-In above: no, split-off from above and emboldened: Douma Market Attack: "Assad Bombs" PULLING Children Apart? (anyone worried, it's no more graphic, photographically...) --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:32, 27 August 2015 (UTC)

Listed Victims
Actual number questionable, but many at least have picture supports - actual names and relations, as well as age-gender, and other information, all questionable but, lacking made-up guesses, it's what we have and could be accurate. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:11, 29 August 2015 (UTC)

Table (incomplete)

Citing:
 * VDC (English) = 117 warplane shelling victims, from Damascus suburbs, 08-16-2015 - all areas from are Douma unless specified, 9 exceptions all specified as died in Douma - all civilian, death by "warplane shelling."
 * LCC trans = Syrian Perspective translating LCC Arabic list of 102 names.
 * (note: same image-list is cited by Eric Draister (who can read Arabic? or has a source who can? apparently. he cited 3 women to Ziad's 2, and Ziad - not the list - goofed #10) --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:56, 30 August 2015 (UTC)
 * (note: he's got a few goofs, but the VDC has at least one too. And in Ziad's defense the LCC list is in small resolution, with a techno-Arabic font that might be hard to read) --Caustic Logic (talk) 05:59, 31 August 2015 (UTC)


 * Vid (mainly the list of DID videos here)
 * Arabic/other: from VDC or video title, any other sources (none yet)

Ordering from VDC's, earliest entries first - order matches LCC up to a point. AM = Adult Male, etc. - using VDC's, except where challenged then ??. nl = not listed in that source. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:11, 29 August 2015 (UTC)

Recurring Family Names
In other attacks in the Douma area, even just keeping it narrowed to alleged market attacks so far, several family names keep popping up. Again these may or may not be the real names, or reflect a real family connection (maybe with a name-for-name swap system). And then any actual relation could be close, distant, alleged, irrelevant, etc. Some of these are repeated from above, others recur between other attacks. (incomplete) --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:22, 11 September 2015 (UTC)


 * August 12 25 dead under the note "Several people martyred in a massacre due to regime's army air forces' several raids on the city." (imagery, not VDC, puts it as a partly market massacre) 24 men, 1 boy. No videos. Names: al-Sheikh, Arbash, Masri, al-Daj, Dalati x2, Al-Ali


 * June 30 12 dead under the note "several people martyred in a massacre due to the regime air forces' shelling of a market" 3 generic videos included with each entry. Unusually gender-mixed, 7 men, 3 boys, 1 woman, 1 girl. The girl and one boy are named al-Tout (a man and a burned-faced boy on Aug. 16). The names Seyroul and Shehab at least also appear in both attacks.


 * June 15, 2014 8 dead under the note "Several people martyred in a massacre due to the explosion on a car bomb near the Grand Mosque in the market, it was first thought that the reason of death is the shelling." 6 men, one woman, one girl. Ilham Mohammad Hejazi adult female: (video video (Also Nabki - shared by an odd Ghouta massacre victim in Douma)

Name frequency: All 2 killed 8/24, 1 8/30, 1 each 8/16, 6/30, 6/16, 6/6, several in 2014 from Sept. to year's end.
 * Seyroul, all, Arabic = 67 killed, almost all of them in/from Douma


 * Arbash [http://www.vdc-sy.info/index.php/ar/martyrs/1/c29ydGJ5PWEua2lsbGVkX2RhdGV8c29ydGRpcj1ERVNDfGFwcHJvdmVkPXZpc2libGV8ZXh0cmFkaXNwbGF5PTB8MT0lRDglQjklRDglQjElRDglQTglRDglQjR8 = 51, mostly in/from Douma.


 * Dalati = 89, 1 a day through July 2015. some in Douma, more in Zabadany, almost all in Douma civilians, those in Zabadany FSA.


 * Al-Daj = 29 mostly Douma


 * Hijazi = 224, mostly not Douma.


 * al-Tout = 26, all but 1 in Douma, mostly civilian, some rebels - 2 rebel al-Touts killed this year, 4 in 2013, none in 2014. Children: beside 2 in a June 30 market attack - a boy and a girl - a man and a boy died in the Aug 16 market attack, and then 3 more children died on August 30 - a boy and 2 girls "due to the shelling." --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:43, 13 September 2015 (UTC)

Precedents

 * Monitor on Douma Market Attack: Precedents Covers patterns with market bombings and likely false flag attacks in Bosnia in the 1990s, some relevant precedents from the Syrian conflict.

One case mentioned there deserves special analysis here, a bizarre precedent speaking to fighter jets bombing markets, and to the need for a more professional "no fly zone." August 3, 2015 - rebel-held Ariha, Idlib province (recently conquered, well after Idlib, will be another Islamist occupation like in Douma). War News Updates reports 27 killed and dozens wounded "after a Syrian army fighter jet crashed into a marketplace in the Syrian town of Ariha in Idlib province." Citing Reuters citing locals, they say civilians were mainly killed, and "The plane had dropped a bomb on the main Bazaar street at low altitude only seconds before it crashed," Ghazal Abdullah, a resident who was close to the incident, told Reuters." The SOHR reported that the jet was not shot down, so all damage should be from its bombs, not any embarrassing shoot-down into the market.
 * Or, less-obvious to me ... are they saying the jet bombed the market then crashed in without being shot down? Seriously, are they hearing regime jets are sucide-attacking markets now just to kill ... who? VDC lists 39 Idlib dead, nearly all men, a few boys, no surprise ... this is Islamist market alleged makeup, at least on fatal days. ?? --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:36, 8 September 2015 (UTC)

But, whatever proportion was killed by what - and however embarrassing vs. useful it proves - Getty Images/Anadolu Agency has a photo to prove it came down. This says 35 were killed but shows in this earlier precedent for jets attacking markets, there was proof. Some flag-marked jet wreckage, next to melons. It looks arguably natural how it came together, but ... to me, the metal appears to be quite weathered, having spent some time in this same crumpled state. From the close-cropped photo, the size of material appears easily transported and planted. If there's much more of it, maybe not. If this jet was shot down long ago and had its wreckage saved as a prop and later dropped here to prove jet-on-market action ... what does that say about later alleged jet-on-market attacks? --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:01, 8 September 2015 (UTC)


 * Monitor on Massacre Marketing: Other Market Attacks (incomplete) All told, the VDC lists 980 civilians killed by attacks on markets. Two are "regime's army, rank: civilian," killed in market attacks by ISIS and FSA that killed one person each. 978 are civilians killed in attacks allegedly by the regime (unless Israelis or US-coalition forces have hit any markets - their victims are included as martyrs, just not acknowledged rebel ones, usually). For those hung up on the all-male aspect for the August 16 attack (includes me), it's standard. 803 market victims are men, 97 are boys, and they list 55 women and 23 girls killed. That's 92 percent male victims specifically in the whole body of market attacks. Over half the dead are killed in aerial attacks, just under half by other: shelling of a market, explosion at (car bomb) and shooting at (mostly in the early days before the regime got enough bombs to really get going?) Dozens and dozens of incidents, killing from 1 to 152 people each, interesting patterns. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:16, 11 September 2015 (UTC)