Talk:Weakening Germany, strengthening the U.S.

Analyzing the RAND research report
Books and reports exist in a number of different formats, listed here in order from the most valuable to the least valuable.


 * 1) Original PDF files. Creators of confidential or copyrighted material will usually not release these, as they can be shared or printed at will.
 * 2) Printed copies of documents. Secret and confidential documents used to be only shared in printed form, sometimes with numbered copies to each recipient. (The US now has secure reading rooms, SCIFs, for accessing secret documents in electronic format.)
 * 3) Unauthorized photocopies of printed documents
 * 4) Photographs of documents and screenshots
 * 5) Text-only versions of documents
 * 6) Translations of text into another language or synapsis of document

Leakers need to avoid releasing the valuable versions of documents, as these may have identifying information, that may be traced back to the leaker. The same applies to intelligence agencies releasing "intelligence" or information, as they will not reveal their "sources or methods".

The leaker of the RAND "Research Report" has an unauthorized photocopy of the document. The vertical markings on the copy indicate that it was created using a cheap desktop laser printer / copier combo made for personal use. The leaker has released two different sets of photographs of this paper document. The leaker knows the document is authentic – unless he is a faker and the creator of the document. He has no reason for going around asking for expert opinions about the authenticity of the document.

John Mark Dougan is not the leaker. He may be a seeder, who received photos of the document from the leaker. There may be another seeder, with different set of photographs. Thomas Röper is not a seeder. He says he received the material from a seeder for evaluation.

The creator of the RAND research report has access to RAND corporate text editor (Word) or PDF templates. It is possible to use PDF editing software to create authentic-looking fake documents from publicly available PDF files, but most people do not have access to such software.

The document
The six pages now online are likely the whole content of the January 25 document. Interestingly, the document does not have a name. The text "Weakening Germany, strengthening the U.S." is the first subtitle of the "Executive Summary" chapter of the document. By RAND documentation standards "Executive Summary" is the name and title of the document.

The "Executive Summary" chapter starts at page 3 (iii) of the document. The cover page and the boilerplate copyright page are pages i and ii respectively. Other features included in published RAND reports, like the table of contents are missing. The template for the boilerplate page automatically creates a link to a download page once a document has received a RAND document number. This confidential report has no RAND document number, so the URL only leads to RAND's main page.

If the document is authentic, then most likely someone at RAND copy-pasted the Executive Summary part of a larger document onto a clean RAND document templated and had it printed for limited circulation. The template automatically took the first title in the text and reprinted it on the cover page. The full document may have been work-in-progress. The whole project became moot after February 2022, and will likely never be published, not even for a limited readership.

-- Petri Krohn (talk) 05:34, 16 September 2022 (UTC)