Talk:Ukraine war casualties

News on casualties
August 19 Members of militias Donetsk and Lugansk national republics includes 19-23 thousand people, they are opposed 48-52 thousand Ukrainian military, said in a daily summary of the militia.

http://translate.yandex.net/tr-url/ru-en.en/vz.ru/news/2014/8/19/701132.html

oops this page sort of started itself KatKan (talk) 19:05, 19 August 2014 (UTC)
 * No worries - a good page to have. My first adds were a bit rough (copies) but now it's rolling (thanks CE) --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:39, 19 August 2014 (UTC)

For a section on nature of casualties, or something - I think we should cover that:
 * Yandex translated situation report:
 * 5. The Donetsk is controlled by the militia, a frontal assault from the West is hardly possible, and from North and South, the junta has got stuck in the battles for the transfer and Yasinovataya. In General, the city is now covered with shells and missiles attacks are openly terrorist in nature and aimed at the destruction of the civilian population and the development of a humanitarian catastrophe.

Is this not a better definion of terrorist, in nature, than anything the Kiev junta has come up with to support it's description of the federalists? --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:39, 19 August 2014 (UTC)

Rebels: " american mercenary killed" "Franko", apparently Ukrainian diaspora, possible Canadian accent suggested, Battalion "Donbass". Was granted Ukrainian citizenship, and apparently a double citizen (unclear). Volunteered to fight in UAF. Apparently, KIA. Prior interview with him given in Ukraine to a Western journalist is posted. 20.08.2014 - 4:23  --Chingachgook (talk) 01:22, 20 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Nothing odd or bad in this. Diaspora sometimes DOES "go home" to help in a fight, especially against the side that forced him or his parents to leave originally. Australia currently has several like this fighting in Syria (on the ISIS side), Government won't let them back in. KatKan (talk) 09:11, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

Rebels: Battalion Shaktersk (Ukraine AF): 2 killed, 6 wounded under Ilovaisk (Иловайск)

(Pro-Ukraine, in Ukranian): "Нелюди вели вогонь по транспорту, який йшов під білим прапором. В результаті 17 людей загинули на місті, і лише шістьом вдалося вижити", 17 KIA claimed --Chingachgook (talk) 01:29, 20 August 2014 (UTC)
 * In English " 17 people were killed in a fire fighters with mortars and "city" refugee convoy on August 18 in area towns Novosvitlivka-Hryaschuvate (Lugansk region). Lonely fired on transport, which was under a white flag. As a result, 17 people died in the city, and only six survived"" THIS IS THE REFUGEE CONVOY STORY AGAIN, again without images KatKan (talk) 09:11, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

Rebels: 17 August, 28-Brigade from Odessa, UAF: 9 KIA  --Chingachgook (talk) 01:51, 20 August 2014 (UTC)

City of Харцызск is shelled, Donbass region. Both sides claim that the other side is to blame

Pro-Ukraine claim: rebels shelled Еленовка, Donbass region, using Grad. "Preliminary information, nobody was killed"   --Chingachgook (talk) 02:09, 20 August 2014 (UTC)

Pro-Ukraine, in Ukrainian report on events on 18 August (no KIA figure provided) Ударні частини батальйону територіальної оборони "Донбас" протягом 18 серпня (August 18)  знищили блокпости терористів у Іловайську (Донецька область) та увійшли в місто з декількох напрямів. Про це на своїй сторінці у Facebook написав комбат Семен Семенченко. 


 * IN English "Impact of territorial defense battalion "Donbass" for August 18 (August 18) was destroyed in the terrorist roadblocks Ilovays'k (Donetsk region) and entered the city from several directions. This wrote commander Simon Semenchenko on its Facebook page. "

Pro-Ukraine, in Ukrainian report on events on 19 August ( UAF "Donbass" 4 KIA reported,  UAF "Shaktersk", 2 KIA, 6 wounded  ) В результаті важких боїв підрозділи батальйону територіальної оборони "Донбас" зазнали втрат і змушени були вийти з бою з Іловайську (Донецька область).Про це повідомляє прес-служба батальйону на своїй сторінці у Facebook.

Як повідомляється, станом на 22-у годину "бійці батальйону "Донбас" вийшли з бою під Іловайськом". "Весь день точився складний та запеклий бій, у результаті якого постраждала велика кількість військових "Донбасу". Кількість поранених уточнюється", - заявили у прес-службі.

Чотирьох бійців батальйону 19 серпня вбили терористи. У той же час у Twitter`i добровольчого батальйону "Шахтарськ" повідомили, що загін досі веде бій під Іловайськом та має втрати: 2 загиблих, 6 поранених. 


 * In English "Donbass "suffered losses and were forced to withdraw from the battle of Ilovays'k (Donetsk region) .About the press service of the battalion on his page on Facebook. Reportedly, at the 22nd hour "soldiers battalion" Donbass "came from the Battle of Ilovajskij."
 * "All day tochyvsya complex and fierce battle, in which a large number of injured military" Donbass ". Specified number of wounded," - said the press service. Four soldiers of the battalion killed August 19 terrorists. At the same time Twitter`i volunteer battalion "Miner" reported that the unit is still under Ilovajskij fight and has lost 2 killed, 6 wounded."

(pro-Ukraine, in Ukranian) Poroshenko had a chat with Lukashenko about situation on Ukranian Donbass

Президент України Петро Порошенко провів телефонну розмову з Президентом Республіки Білорусь Олександром Лукашенком. Про це ввечері 19 серпня повідомила прес-служба президента України

Зокрема зазначено, що Президент України подякував президентові Білорусі за можливість проведення 26 серпня у Мінську зустрічі високого рівня у форматі Україна – Європейський Союз – "Євразійська трійка".

Сторони також обговорили ряд питань двосторонніх відносин та врегулювання надзвичайної ситуації на українському Донбасі.
 * In English "President of Ukraine Poroshenko had a telephone conversation with President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko.

This evening, August 19 press service of President of Ukraine In particular, states that the President of Ukraine thanked the President for the opportunity to Belarus on 26 August in Minsk high-level meeting in the Ukraine - European Union - "Eurasian Three". The parties also discussed a range of issues of bilateral relations and the settlement of an emergency in the Ukrainian Donbass."]

"Президенти України та Росії Петро Порошенко та Володимир Путін визначаться, чи зустрічатися їм найближчим часом в "нормандському форматі". " 

UAF Colonel Володимир Рубан discusses his (and his son) efforts on hostage or prisoners exchange, in this youtube video (starting around 13.55 or so). Major difficulties in such attempts discussed  --Chingachgook (talk) 11:25, 20 August 2014 (UTC)


 * I've added the English translations, while I was getting them anyway. STILL can't understand Ukrainian or Russian but am starting to read cyrillic letters ok. KatKan (talk) 09:11, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

Lithuanian "Honorary Consul"
BBC reports Aug. 22: Lithuania says its honorary consul in the rebel-held city of Luhansk in eastern Ukraine has been murdered by "terrorists" there.


 * Lithuania's Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius tweeted with "deep sorrow" that "Mr Mykola Zelenec kidnapped & brutally killed by terrorists there".
 * There has been no comment from the rebels yet on the Lithuanian diplomat's death.
 * Lithuania is among the most vociferous EU member states in its criticism of Russian actions in Ukraine. The EU and US accuse Russia of fomenting the separatist rebellion in eastern Ukraine.

So... why did they have an honorary diplomat in the rebels' capitol city, who only got killed as government forces are also there? --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:29, 22 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Okay, when they say Lithuania had "its honorary consul" there, it's not like a diplomat - certainly not an ambassador to the Lugansk Peoples' Republic. Latvia, at least, just announced it was ready to recognize the LPR and DPR ... as "terrorist organizations." Lithuania is probably about the same. He serves no official function, apparently. One source (from Dutch) explains "An "honorary consul" can be a citizen, as it were what moonlights as 'honorable representative' in a distant location." Apparently, he's not even Lituanian; Baltic review describes him as a "Ukrainian businessman and  Lithuanian honorary consul ... a sincere friend of Lithuania and Ukraine who had a lot of plans for the development of the two countries, including cultural and business ties." --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:15, 23 August 2014 (UTC)


 * So he sounds like a pro-free-market guy, most likely pro-Kiev, but presumably given the honorific title sometime well before this year's coup, referendum, and war, back when Lugansk was just another Ukrainian city. But all through the Spring and Summer he remained there in Lugansk, apparently, never fleeing nor being murdered by the "terrorists" running the town. Did he even wind up sympathizing with them perhaps? Only once Kiev's forces were also in town, putting people in trucks that get blown up and blaming terrorists and things like that .... terrorists are blamed for this brutal murder. Baltic review says Zelenec was "shot to death today by Russian-backed terrorists" and adds "The businessman Mykola Zelenec was kidnapped few days ago by a group of armed terrorists. Unfortunately,  his location was unknown. and today, he was brutally murdered by the terrorists." The motive isn't explained - apparently just to piss off Lithuanians and Europeans in general, to keep up the pressure on themselves and on Russia. They plan things like this to make themselves look bad in between blowing up their own neighborhoods just to make the other side look bad.... obviously! --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:15, 23 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Honorary consuls are normal residents of where they are, and do consular work as a sideline for the country concerned. They have no diplomatic status, unlike full time employed Consuls. Their plans for "cultural and business ties" typically would include some for their own businesses.
 * It is odd they say "his location was unknown. and today, he was brutally murdered by the terrorists". If location unknown, how do they even know he's dead, never mind by whose hand? did they return the body with a signed note, or what? and he was only shot, that is non-brutal, not like, say, having his car run over by a tank.


 * Congratulations, Caustic Logic. You have found the mysterious "Third Force". KatKan (talk) 11:17, 23 August 2014 (UTC)

Mass Graves at Donetsk
A few photos have emerged of soldiers being buried near Donetsk, no details given. KatKan (talk) 20:23, 22 August 2014 (UTC)

On top this says that SBU (Security Service of Ukraine ) is ensuring the peace of the country. Insults to the grave suggest that those are rebels KIA. Obviously does not say much about total counts. He says the memory of our guys will live forever, but for those bastards, we will use crosses for fuel in winter. Suggests an issue with heating up with approaching cold weather.

Konstantin Preobrazhensky  comments : "Реальное фото, как вьівозят целую фуру 200-х кацапов в Ростовскую область:" means :" a real photo how a whole truckload (фура-kind of truck, not clear how big) of killed (insulting word meaning Russian) are moved to Rostov region". Well, insulting KIAs is not a good thing, let's say. --Chingachgook

Vladimir Sachenko А що на фото з права за числа на табличках? what is on the right photo, those numbers on those plates Today at 2:46 am|

I do not see an answer --Chingachgook (talk) 21:22, 22 August 2014 (UTC)


 * In another version of the images, the comment said "the homeless will use the crosses or heating" which is a much more neutral prediction.

The crosses photo labels say "soldier No. X" and the open grave site/ditch clearly just sows position numbers - indicating someone is recording the number and whatever is known about the body being put there. There will have to b months of exhumations and DNA testing to identify everyone. I just brought the photos to show efforts are being made.KatKan (talk) 21:44, 22 August 2014 (UTC)

Well, I don't know about another image but what I see here is Заказывали пруфы значительных потерь колорадов? Обратите внимание на величину участка земли на 2 фото и то, что пидорашки даже имена определить не могут. А сколько осталось гнить где-нибудь за сельским туалетом и на полях Донбасса... Память о наших бойцах будет жить вечно, а кресты на этих недомогилках вскоре срубят бомжи, дабы согреться зимой.

Did you ask for proofs of considerable "colorads' (=rebels) losses? . Take a close look on land plot on photo 2 and that for пидорашки (insult- meaning he is Russian/colorad] they could not even figure out names.  And how many more are left to rot  nearby a "village" toilet and in the fields of Donbass...The memory about our folks will live forever, but crosses over those 'incomplete/shallow/substandard' graves which will be soon cut by some bums, дабы (in order) to stay warm in winter.

It is very clearly saying here they will cut them for the purpose of staying warm This type of discussions are next to impossible to be conducted in English. SOmetimes russian or ukranian conversations are typed using Western letters (especially if writing from abroad ) but still in Russian or Ukranian language. This text is in Russian (not Ukrainian), but by pro-Ukranian. Discussion over there  use both Russian and Ukrainian. I do not see English language at all (and not even western letters used)

--Chingachgook (talk) 00:32, 23 August 2014 (UTC)
 * I put them into several translators. Maybe those are being polite about the bad words. Other things often come out quite different so I have to mentally combine them. A lot of the tone/attitude shows through anyway. KatKan (talk) 11:24, 23 August 2014 (UTC)

This is what that person literally said, it is probably mostly insult than a practical arrangement, but cold weather and probably not functional facilities would seem anyway an obvious concern which I wanted to highlight

The tone here is actually as bad as it get, there are people much better qualified for an opinion but it is something like using Shakespearean or older English to make the horror movie type effect, whatever this effect actually is called, can find words for this now but hope clear where I am heading. Like horror pictures show up, horror music playing, this sort of thing what is that they do to make a horror movie? (I do not watch them) (like B rated horror movie, not David Lynch)--Chingachgook (talk) 17:55, 23 August 2014 (UTC)

дабы: is this some sort of Shakespearean way to say 'in order for'/for the purpose of? (Something like this but experts would know much better --Chingachgook (talk) 18:07, 23 August 2014 (UTC)

ДАБЫ

ДАБЫ союз чтобы, для того, к тому, с тем чтобы; пожелательное да. for, in order for, to cause, affirmative yes This is from Vladimir Dal' who first attempted written record of spoken language. So something old would be their but that it would tend to dissapear in shortish more modern dictionaries



this is smt h like 1863-1866 --Chingachgook (talk) forgot sometime

May be no process in place to deal with unknown soldiers
May be no process in place to deal with unknown solderers --Chingachgook (talk) 21:05, 22 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Once there is normal government, they need to set up something like War Graves Commission, to collect all notes made by anyone who buried anyone. World War 1 was 100 years ago - last year an Australian soldier who died in it was identified by DNA after some of his bones were ploughed up by a French farmer. So it can be done, if they really want to.KatKan (talk) 11:31, 23 August 2014 (UTC)

Daily casualties?

 * Sergey Bobkov @sbobkov 1:32 AM - 20 Aug 2014
 * ''All fighting near #Donetsk today cost #Ukrainian troops 483 KIA and 700+ WIA, per radio communication intercepts. #ATO #DNR

Strikes of Note

 * July 11, central Lugansk: after acknowledging "at least 30 soldiers" were killed somewhere near the Russian border in a federalist missile strike, an AP report noted the promise to "react swiftly." Later in the day, this article argues with geo-location, they may have tried to destroy the still-running Lugansk train station. Instead, a 3rd floor apartment just north of it took the blow from the north, killing at least one person - an older woman unfortunately shown under the rubble with he broken head. Many more would have died if the projectile hadn't lost as much altitude by that point. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:17, 22 August 2014 (UTC)


 * August 19, Zughres/Zuhres: "Fifteen people were killed and 19 injured in mortar fire in Donetsk region’s village of Zugres on Wednesday, local authorities said, citing health officials. Among those killed were three children." (report-Russian)

72nd Brigade

 * Interrogation of a Ukrainian POW conscript – ENG SUBS
 * ''The real losses of the 72nd Brigade were never announced. They spoke about 100 men, but in reality the whole brigade was exterminated. Besides those who surrendered.


 * The real State of the Ukrainian Army in the ATO - ENG SUBS
 * ''If you compare the number of casualties. it's more than 9 years of Afghanistan.
 * Wikipedia: Soviet Forces: 14,453 Killed (total)Petri Krohn (talk)23 August 2014 (UTC)


 * You can see from what they're wearing, at least 4 different styles of camo. Their own running shoes or flip flops. USA sent them a planeload of good field rations. Blackmarket, figures.
 * Does anyone know what their vehicles are? First time I've seen light grey ones like that. It looks like winter (snow) camouflage. Not a good sign, if it is.KatKan (talk) 03:44, 23 August 2014 (UTC)

Missing soldiers
There was a Kiev battalion of ~4000 men which seems to have disappeared (24 Mechanised Brigade??) About 73 of them turned up in Kiev and are being treated as possible deserters. Apparently they were given permission to retreat, and they (sensibly IMHO) decided to retreat all the way home to Kiev. The other 4000 are not listed as dead. So where are they? slipped home? changed sides? escaped to Russia as refugees? captured? KatKan (talk) 08:20, 21 August 2014 (UTC)


 * I thought so. From early August:
 * "On Sunday, Vasili Malayev, spokesman for the Rostov Oblast FSB Border Service said that twelve junta soldiers laid down their arms and crossed into Russia in Rostov Oblast, saying “They laid down their arms and crossed into Russia at the Gukovo border checkpoint. Now, we’re investigating why they did this. The soldiers crossed into Russia on Saturday, they were from the Ukrainian Army’s 72 Mechanized Brigade. There were previous instances of junta troops rallying to Russia. In late July, more than 40 junta troops left their units and asked the DNR and LNR opolchenie to help them escape to Russia because they didn’t want to fight against their own people. All the junta troops came through the Donetsk border post in Rostov Oblast. They thanked the opolchenietsy who helped them."
 * from an excellent blog KatKan (talk) 09:54, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

Who Is Left?
Not casualties (yet) but available to throw into battle? don't know how much wishful thinking there is in this article, but it's an overview of the forces they think are available to Kiev. From Russian source but very interesting. Good analysis of how house to house fighting will end up destroying all the houses. Very scary. KatKan (talk) 08:20, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

POWS?
Well, whatever is politically correct way to have this story in nadiya-savchenko I see no reason why not to have her released in some appropriately near future. No other cases I am clearly aware of, there was mentioning of ~ 300 UAF POWs  whom Ruban was chasing but that was from a while ago. I have not seen estimates of NAF POWs. Ruban was saying things like every extra day in captivity is very bad (if you are surrounded, it might be not possible to be too accommodating for prisoners) --Chingachgook (talk) 09:43, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

Some hints that some prisoners were not treated well, no definite details


 * Not new, interview with what seems to be 2 prisoners of war, complaining they weren't allowed to vote. i suspect when they're allowed to they won't be voting for the present government. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUO00Hi2A3E KatKan (talk) 04:01, 23 August 2014 (UTC)

Interesting is that when they were asked how do they feel about the commander, one of them say no feelings, the other is  say they are treated as cannon fodder, around 0.46 or so. Where that leads us, if anywhere, not sure. --Chingachgook (talk) 08:29, 23 August 2014 (UTC)

MAJOR difficulties of POW MIA work
Ruban's POW MIA work on government side were heard reporting MAJOR difficulties. This mission is not really done by government, it is done by a military officer, who set something up. But this officer by his code of conduct cannot tell his boss to cause the desired outcome. His only option is to wait for journos to yell so much that something will happen (But yelling of all those journos is inverse proportional to their reasonableness ).

To put this in short, I would do this (1) ask Ruban what needs to happen (2) make sure this does happen (or else, nothing good will happen)--Chingachgook (talk) 11:03, 21 August 2014 (UTC)


 * This is a HUGE problem. It will take a new and reconciliatory Government to handle it. Because


 * some POWS taken by Donbas are changing sides
 * some weren't even actually really taken prisoner
 * some MIA are missing on purpose (a welcoming country is real close)
 * these are a permanent propaganda thorn in their side
 * if anyone was mistreated by the Kiev side, once they're home they'll talk.

These guys are in a situation where they might be killed any minute. They don't plan very far ahead. When it's time to go home they will fear reprisals for where they've been. (Similar reason for why the Donbass guys cannot surrender or stop fighting. Fighting possibly extends their lives, in comparison to surrendering).

But if these are not sorted out, they'll never know who got killed and quickly buried. So the Government will never have peace from the relatives.

This poor mangled country is 100 or more years overdue for national reconciliation. Otherwise the hate will just fester and the trouble start up over and over. KatKan (talk) 17:57, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

Unhappy conscripts, with unhappy consequences
Some reports suggesting mothers or conscripts very unhappy to be drafted to fight in a pointless war. In some areas, whole areas were against draft. Once you are drafted, it becomes a matter of honor to fight, whether or not you believe it is for a right cause. Culturally, being a deserter is an insult. Majority of UAF fighting are drafted, not volunteered (not certain on law of the land but believe service is required). Somebody who withdrew too far may be in very serious trouble (possibly shot). It is plausible that small number of crazy people are herding much bigger pack of conscripts into a fight, with withdrawing not a plausible option. Some talk of such tactics were heard. That may be a reason for large losses,  unprepared and unwilling conscripts are lead from behind to die. Another issue is that once you got unwilling soldiers, what you do is to put the biggest artillery gun you can find to blast place in front of you into small enough pieces before venturing out there to figure out what was there at all. Rebels are constantly saying that loyalists use this type of tactics, they slowly shell things out with big (artillery) guns   --Chingachgook (talk) 10:05, 21 August 2014 (UTC)


 * "There was massive draft dodging in all three junta call-ups. They also raised politically reliable (but militarily worthless) “National Guard” and Territorial Defence units… therefore, the drafts of manpower didn’t go into formed professional formations, but into undisciplined, untrained, and badly equipped new units."


 * "the junta appointed Galician Uniate hillbillies as political commissars, with the power to shoot “deserters” and “malingerers”. To put it bluntly, the junta forces have received no real reinforcements since the beginning of the war. Let’s not be coy… it takes at least 9-12 months to recruit, train, form, and gel a combat unit. That’s a bare minimum. The junta’s thrown nothing into battle but uniformed Euromaidantsy terrorists, nothing more.


 * In short, the junta’s fighting the one kind of war that it can’t win… a war of attrition in a land where the people hate them (and hate them worse with each airstrike and artillery bombardment). Besides this, there’s much discontent, which the junta toady press suppresses (the reporting of such, not the disorders)."


 * "A V Zakharchenko, the Chairman of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Government, said at a briefing in Donetsk, “Ukrainian troops are rallying en masse to the side of the DNR. One of the officers of the 25 Airmobile Brigade took a BMP and rallied to our side. As of today, he took command of one of our units. This isn’t the only case of such. I understand that other units are ready to surrender in the near future in Dmitrovka and Kozhevni (a village on Russian border where the opolchenie surround junta forces). The regular Ukrainian professional soldiers don’t understand why they’re here, what they’re fighting for, and what they’re dying for. On the other hand, we’re fighting for our land, for our children, our homes. We’re in our homeland; we have something real to fight for. The morale of a unit that’s fighting for its homeland is of an order of magnitude higher than that of a unit that fights for money or that doesn’t understand why it’s at war. In fact, mostly, the Ukrainian regular soldiers aren’t our enemies; they’re our allies. There are even instances where the Ukrainian Army fights the Dnepr and Aidar Battalions. Now, not far from Ilovaisk, there’s heavy fire between Ukrainian regular troops and territorial defence battalions of the so-called ‘National Guard’”."


 * all from blog I linked elsewhere KatKan (talk) 12:50, 21 August 2014 (UTC)


 * A few days ago I read a blog from a Internal Security (?) soldier, I'll link it if I find it again. Fighting at Saur Magila for days, plate of porridge for breakfast, borscht for lunch, nothing else. ONCE they got one pack of excellent American field rations, he wrote it all ends up in the generals' camps. No first aid kits, no ground sheets, 24 hours to move out wounded (if they live that long). Once some "rebels" came and gave them food and blankets. Other troops with them were conscripts in one group, regulars in another, some "volunteers". Uniforms all over the place mixed up, they have to mark themselves with yellow Scotch tape to know they're on the same side, shot for a while at some with red tape, turned out they'd run out of yellow. Total disaster and headlessness. I can see some deserting into Russia just to get a meal. KatKan (talk) 13:01, 21 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Interesting, snippets and blog, although the author seems to have a religious lense I don't care for. Subscribed anyway. Here's a video I posted elsewhere yesterday, which fits very well. --CE (talk) 13:07, 21 August 2014 (UTC)
 * VayoSyshgZA


 * yeah there's a lot of religious and racist ranting on some of these, I don't care for all that name-calling, but they all do it, as a way of dehumanising people they may have to kill. Easier that way.


 * Here I found where I got the above story from. It is very long but very detailed, 2 good interviews, telling what it's like for the people doing the hard work. Scroll down to the big image of Saur Magila where it begins.vineyardsaker It's heartbreaking, and there's months more of it to come. KatKan (talk) 13:20, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

Stopping hostilities may be difficult
This may be difficult. On government side, going without a security is not a plausible option. But security may be provided by not the most sensible of all of the people, let's put it like that. (So, for example, talk is heard of rebels volunteering to provide security for government officials). Response to that suggestion was not heard. There are also some elections coming and some yelling is kicked up (not clear on exact details, but some right sector marches on Kiev were threatened recently). Such considerations may put considerable pressure on participants, (whether the threat is actually real or not). It looks like there were clearly signals from government searching for peace, but something else preventing it. There appear to be no clear sign that hostilities are actually residing at the moment, it looks like pretty much the same. --Chingachgook (talk) 10:05, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

Moscow proposes cease-fire --Chingachgook (talk) 16:37, 21 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Kiev does not trust Russia not to hit them from behind.


 * This is happening on a land which Moscow considers 'somewhat' theirs (before Lenin moved it to Ukraine) . But certainly does not considers Kiev theirs, and has no intention of taking Kiev. Even with Donbas, it is kind of cost-benefit situation. Moscow is fuzzy about even Donbas, and there is simply no momentum or intention to move situation further --Chingachgook (talk) 19:56, 21 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Some of the country has some sympathy for Donbass but not for Russia.
 * This is complicated issue, there are many ties, human, cultural, historical. It was on good side before all this started, and will settle back to good side eventually when it is over--Chingachgook (talk) 19:58, 21 August 2014 (UTC)


 * The Donbass youth are hopeful.
 * Well, my entry here is that they are in some serious mess on every level from head to toe, and continued shooting is not going to move that mess in a very hopeful direction. The most hopeful would be as open situation as possible (and flying drone is not exactly that way). To move it in a hopeful direction, there need to be trade and all sorts of exchanges, while right now it is going in exactly opposite, Syrian-type way. Drone is really only good to sell some fake and no other point . As little droning if possible for hope and change  --Chingachgook (talk) 20:21, 21 August 2014 (UTC)


 * The Donbass elders can remember Soviet times. Donbass doesn't trust Kiev not to hit them from behind.
 * Kiev CANNOT possibly hit Donbas (and especially from behind, well, should I really continue here?)--Chingachgook (talk) 19:58, 21 August 2014 (UTC)


 * United Nations probably doesn't want to get involved (veto powers aside) but a neutral force standing between would ease the tensions best. Ceasefire would have to include no moving of equipment around (so no setting up for the restart). KatKan (talk) 18:22, 21 August 2014 (UTC)


 * See no problem here . (Rebels appear promising not to shoot some stupid drones, well those drones looks a bit far fetched, will do no real harm, but this is rather pointless military and does not add to trust issue. This is more for some Western imagination . If they need some weapons, they will take them from UAF if the have to, but they do not really have to, as there is no point for them to move somewhere. They will just sit where they are at the moment --Chingachgook (talk) 19:58, 21 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Saur Mogila is ugly and horrible, in my opinion. It glorifies war. Makes it look heroic. It should be fixed up just enough to not fall down on some tourists. Otherwise leave it as it is as a REAL monument to what war REALLY is. Too many countries spend big money on war memorials while cutting the pensions of disabled servicemen. Let it stand. KatKan (talk) 18:22, 21 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Good idea to let it stand that way, but apparently too late. Hours ago pictures emerged showing its fall. --CE (talk) 18:37, 21 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, this will either stop sometime soon, or else it will go on for quite a while,--if not forever, -- and cost a lot of lives . So it has to stop "soon". But if it has to stop soon anyway, then any rationally thinking person would try to stop this immedeately, as a delay does not change anything and just means more people killed. There is clearly a sense of winding down, with Poroshenko saying everybody is tired of war and this kind of thing. So any rational person will press for urgent cease-fire. Full trust may never come, and unlikely to come before people stop killing each other. If they have issues they may talk them over. Hitting from behind is quite impossible, everybody still keeps their weapons, just stop shooting them. There seem to be any neutral force available, sizes of their guns may be bigger than those blue helmets. Nato is impossible. There is no other way (apart of doing this stupid thing forever) --Chingachgook (talk) 18:57, 21 August 2014 (UTC)


 * I really cannot care less on whether they fix the monument or not, concern is people getting killed for no rational reason --Chingachgook (talk) 19:01, 21 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Actually, as far as good military folks, they sort of trust each other, but they either shoot at each other, or they don't . Politicians, I do not know, no alternative politics to push seem to be available, where this politicking would go? Do what? If they got their brains straight, they should do it  --Chingachgook (talk) 19:07, 21 August 2014 (UTC)


 * I mean actual ceasefire, not a resolution released of course . UN resolution just by itself is not going to suddenly fix something --Chingachgook (talk) 19:21, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

This whole idea of Moscow intention of moving anywhere is simply wrong. It is not there now, and it is not moving there. Even Rouban said, we are not fighting with Moscow, we are fighting with guys with whom we were together on Maidan (which imply that it is pointless for any rational person) (and I could said it any better, really) --Chingachgook (talk) 20:04, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

Well we got a sudden trucking issue back again. --Chingachgook (talk) 20:34, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

Well, basically it is stopped means it is over. Somebody should just stop this nonsense --Chingachgook (talk) 20:34, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

Right to war protest
Like, what's particularly wrong with this picture ? (Certainly, made my only smile for the whole bloody day).Chingachgook (talk) 10:05, 21 August 2014 (UTC)
 * So. It is starting. Dancing in the church nobody liked. The flag many secretly liked. Imprisoning these kids many won't like. Eyes will start to open. KatKan (talk) 12:32, 21 August 2014 (UTC)
 * I didn't read the story, but what's wrong with the picture - IMO, didn't make me smile - is that those colors are particularly ugly at the moment, and being smeared in everyone's face in a taunt. Like haha, we're coming for you next. Someone was jailed? I hope it's proportional to the vandalism crime ("hooliganism" might be fair too) and not politicized up or down (I finally read that part). And sanity needs slapped back into Ukraine ASAP. (then again, I'm a bit startled to learn how offensive I find the colors by now ... maybe I'm just not thinking straight) --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:04, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

Lack of trained negotiators
Some were trained but are nowhere be found. Rouban is THE ONLY (!!!!) negotiator in that land. --Chingachgook (talk) 12:17, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

Wounded
I guess at this point we have no clue, there may be no electricity or no facilities etc. Right now, it is comfortable whether to run around doing stupid things but we are moving into colder weather which will create additional issues --Chingachgook (talk) 12:37, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

Hardware supply from Ukraine to the Rebels
This claim was made on captured hardware types and quantities. Claim is made by CyberBerkut on rebel site. They claim to know those numbers.  They claim this is based on intercepted reports of UAF за период с 8 по 15 августа Армией Юго-Востока было захвачено: Т-64 — 18 ед., БМП — 24 ед., БТР — 11 ед., БРДМ — 2 ед., БМД — 9 ед., РСЗО «Ураган» — 2 ед., САУ 2С4 «Тюльпан» — 2 ед., САУ 2С9 «Нона» — 2 ед., САУ 2С1 «Гвоздика» — 10 ед., минометов 82-мм — 6 ед., ЗУ-23-2 — 3 ед, автомобилей — 44 ед.

В общей сложности, с 20 июня по 15 августа в ходе проведения карательной операции, как следует из докладов самих военных, ополченцы захватили у украинской армии: Т-64 — 65 ед., БМП — 69 ед., БТР — 39 ед., БРДМ — 2 ед., БМД — 9 ед., РСЗО БМ-21 «Град» — 24 ед., РСЗО «Ураган» — 2 ед., САУ 2С4 «Тюльпан» — 2 ед., САУ 2С9 «Нона» — 6 ед., САУ 2С1 «Гвоздика» — 25 ед., Д-30 — 10 ед., минометов 82-мм — 32 ед., ЗУ-23-2 — 18 ед, автомобилей — 124 ед. --Chingachgook (talk) 14:05, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

I guess there should be someplace to watch any detailed claims made by parties involved, on any issue somebody cares, I am not going to follow closely those discussions --Chingachgook (talk) 14:59, 21 August 2014 (UTC)


 * The above in English
 * for the period from 8 to 15 August, the Army of the Southeast was captured: T-64 - 18 units., BMP - 24., BTR - 11 units., BRDM - 2 units., BMD - 9 units., MRL "Hurricane" - 2 units., SAU 2C4 "Tulip" - 2 units., SAU 2S9 "Nona" - 2 units., SAU 2C1 "Carnation" - 10 pcs., mortars 82 mm - 6 units., ZU-23-2 - 3 units, vehicles - 44 units.


 * In total, from June 20 to August 15, during the punitive action, according to the reports of the military itself, the militia captured from the Ukrainian Army: T-64 - 65 units., BMP - 69 pcs., BTR - 39 pcs., BRDM - 2 units., BMD - 9 units., MLRS BM-21 "Grad" - 24., MRL "Hurricane" - 2 units., SAU 2C4 "Tulip" - 2 units., SAU 2S9 "Nona" - 6 units ., SAU 2C1 "Carnation" - 25 pcs., D-30 - 10 units., mortars 82 mm - 32 pcs., ZU-23-2 - 18 units, vehicles - 124 units.

Some of these may not be in usable condition. And if this is from June they'd have lost some back, to, or broke or burnt them.

I posted a video yesterday of quite a bit of armaments being picked up and take away from an abandoned Kiev checkpoint. So they are certainly taking some, if maybe not as many as they are saying. But the numbers are not huge, so don't seem to be exaggerated for propaganda value.

Many of the items I don't know what they are. But 65 TANKS that is HUGE.

I want to see them taking some AMERICAN equipment, even if it's only "not combat" stuff, and POST IT ONLINE to prove they are capturing useful supplies. I read the latest lot of US gear includes APC (armoured personnel carriers). Seeing Donbass boys riding around on those on national US television might turn things around. KatKan (talk) 18:09, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

Trade much better than drone
Well, no way to escape this topic in any case, war or peace scenario--Chingachgook (talk) 20:52, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

There is a lot to talk about trade and all sort of science, cultural exchanges. Why not to focus on that rather than a drone? This is an incredibly strong point where everybody will not just move, but run, as a maniac, in the correct direction

Or figure out how to undo destruction, at the very least

This drone thing is just some very sick imagination. (And if you put it there--it may just stay there) --Chingachgook (talk) 21:03, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

(Well, unless somebody wants to push a trade in drones, but this does not sound as a very strong proposition ...) --Chingachgook (talk) 21:39, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

Civilian Situation
From BBC site August 20

KatKan (talk) 21:29, 21 August 2014 (UTC)
 * At least 2,119 people have been killed and 5,043 wounded since mid-April, according to a UN report on 7 August
 * 951 civilians have been killed in Donetsk region alone, the official regional authorities said on 20 August
 * Official casualty counts only record certified deaths while in some particularly dangerous parts of the war zone, such as Luhansk region, victims are said to have been buried informally, for instance in gardens
 * Rebels (and some military sources) accuse the government of concealing the true numbers of soldiers killed
 * 155,800 people have fled elsewhere in Ukraine while at least 188,000 have gone to Russia

Well, we had some discussion of that which suggest larger overall numbers, but I have no idea, and no time , and means, to dig all that stuff , maybe it is somewhere else published --Chingachgook (talk) 21:46, 21 August 2014 (UTC)
 * I've not seen anything better than this. Guessing. No one person or organisation knows. Will take months to find out, a sort of census would have to be done, and they'd need know who is still in a camp somewhere, too. KatKan (talk) 22:11, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

Well, that would be like 20 per day in official report, but than we have seen a single day and place something in 500 range (which might be from some unusually large event) So given that, it does suggest potentially much larger total count, but does not really tell what the real count would be. I was not following closely and do not remember even what sort of numbers were reported, and what sort of battles were fought. Trying to estimate this without knowing would require a serious effort.--Chingachgook (talk) 22:56, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

Also, Donetsk for example, used to have 1 around 1 million population, so that 1 million, and Lugansk 0.5 million, so at least those nearly 1.5 million are either displaced or lives in grossly bad situation, with a lot of potential for much worth (total affected number of people seriously larger than in the official report. Can't say more for now. --Chingachgook (talk) 23:20, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

In WW2, which had quite similar tactics, it of sort 1:1 civilian vs military, so total REBEL  military deaths, which may be known from intercept and reports, would suggest about the same number of killed civilians --Chingachgook (talk) 23:29, 21 August 2014 (UTC).

Once official displaced number is about 1/5 of what it really is, we may be looking at potentially of order maybe total 1500-2000 officially in Lugansk +Donetsk, and 5 times more   in reality   , 8-10 K. Can't say more for now --Chingachgook (talk) 23:45, 21 August 2014 (UTC)


 * See what I added to the article page under "refugees". pre$$titutes like those at the BBC tend to just cite the number of people who applied for something in Russia, but they can just cross the border visa-free and do nothing, like the majority apparently did (so far). The numbers add up to a million displaced people, with 4/5 going to Russia. That alone debunks the narrative of "Putins terrorists" against the poor people of Ukraine. --CE (talk) 00:24, 22 August 2014 (UTC)
 * So it makes sense to send 280 trucks to help people stay at home, instead of having to build tent cities for them. Which won't be enough with winter on the way. There would also be people with friends on the other side (border people come and go) and staying there, not in a camp. So, like Kiev's troop death numbers, we need to add one zero at least, to come near the truth. KatKan (talk) 11:45, 23 August 2014 (UTC)