Talk:Alleged Chemical Attack Khan Sheikhoun 4 April 2017

Initial Story
Maybe the incident was today? 4 April? Need confirmation. I assumed it was yesterday because of the quantity of images and media dissemination in essentially only a couple of hours. I just saw one report of an ambulance service driving from Idlib at 06:30 local time --Charles Wood (talk) 10:56, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

Reports on Twitter show images branded with White Helmets / Syrian Civil Defence logo. The images are obviously screenshots of video. Images appear to show predominately youths and infants dead. There are also images of WH personnel spraying bodies (alive or dead?) with water.

Symptoms are consistent with Sarin in that there is profuse white foam on the mouths of some victims. However there is no sign of incontinence or vomit - most victims are in their underwear so it would be obvious.

More images at Twitter Thomas Van Linge However he is not a primary source and is repeating images provided ultimately by the White Helmets. --Charles Wood (talk) 08:27, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

More tweets: Thomas Van Linge: local sources are now reporting 70 dead and 500 affected by the chemical attack on Khan Shaykhun

Thomas Van Linge: Video(18+): 43 children that have suffocated to death in alleged chemical attack targeting civilians in #Idlib

AEJKhalil: DEATH TOLL RISES TO 70 MARTYRS SO FAR, 200 WOUNDED #RUSSIA/#ASSAD TERRORISTS SARIN GAS ATTAK

AEJKhalil: (photos, noting mostly children)

https://twitter.com/AEJKhalil/status/849143681110114304 AEJKhalil:] (bearded man with foam that's perhaps too white and too copious to be genuine) --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:37, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

Death Toll
... (currently reported at 70, and perhaps rising) ...

... Now 100+ and 400 injured ...

In Context
At 70 and perhaps still rising, this would be the third largest alleged death toll from an alleged CW attack in Syria so far. For reference:
 * 1) [21 August, 2013, Ghouta, Damascus:] regime sarin rockets blamed, min 420, max 1,429 killed
 * 2) Alleged Chemical Attack, December 12, 2016 12 December, 2016, near Uqrabiyat, Hama: reported 93 or more killed, Russian sarin bombs are blamed
 * 3) this - likely to be the same story as above.

No one much heard of the December incident, but it might rise again now as 'a shamefully-ignored precedent'. That was in 3 towns in rural Hama run by ISIS. Russian bombing, probably with sarin, was blamed. Now that it's in the turf of the overtly foreign-supported Islamists, the claim has a much, much higher chance of serious and even sustained media coverage (people care, or are supposed to care, just as little about ISIS claims as they do about Syrian government claims)

Also for context on how the rebels encounter these high death tolls in these top 3 cases:
 * 1) evidence suggests it was hostages killed in gas chambers with a variety of non-sarin chemicals
 * 2) evidence is extremely sparse, so the picture isn't clear, but it seems likely to be the same kind of scenario
 * 3) evidence is fairly copious, likely to yield some good clues (that may reflect back on the above precedent case) --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:24, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

Media Response

 * Activists say gas attack kills civilians in Syria as EU leaders discuss reconstruction By Louisa Loveluck April 4 at 4:40 AM


 * Syria conflict: 'Chemical attack' in Idlib kills dozens BBC World News

Timing
It's worth noting this attack - blamed on Syria or Russia (unclear so far) comes just as news broke of an apparent terrorist bombing in St. Petersburg (exact timing not clear yet) - the two events possibly help explain each other - Russia getting its fair retribution, or maybe taking unfair revenge ... and then likely not. It's a thought. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:56, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Checked location - and the province it is in, barely in Idlib, to not look as dumb as the Pentagon. ;o) It is there up center north to see on the Hama frontline image, but it's a good chunk away from the frontlines, savely hidden behind "rebel" stronghold Morek/Mork. This comes as their annual Hama offensive has turned out to be another desaster, and as Peto Lucem wrote as description to the latest map, they lost 85% of their temporal gains. Loss of fighters seems to be massive, as the SAA by now knows how to let them come and then greet them in open field.
 * At this point the mad butcher Assad decides to draw a little attention to this by slaughtering some innocent kids - how typical of him! --CE (talk) 11:19, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Clearly the local battlefield timing is probably more relevant. Obvious revenge for the recent offensive, taken out on random innocents with something pointless and criminal. Seen that before. But if this comes out as a big bad Russian sarin attack, then that Russia connection will also stand out as likely. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:35, 4 April 2017 (UTC)