"Scud Missile" Campaign on Aleppo

Repeatedly in late February, 2013, and to some extent over the preceding months, various parts of Aleppo have been hit with powerful explosions credited to Scud missiles. The death toll is past 100, by reports, from at least two incidents on Feb. 18/19 and Feb. 22, each with multile missiles hitting disparate areas of northeastern Aleppo or its northeastern satellite towns. The collective death toll was estimated by Human Rights Watch on the 26th as at least 141. .

It's not clear whether or not the Aleppo University Attack of January 15, also apparently using Scud-style surface missiles, was related. By early March, Turkish officials were alleging as many as 90 Scuds total had been fired by the Syrian government since December. More Scuds came down at the start of March, at least. One landed near Deir Ez-Zor, well east of Aleppo, and another east of there, just inside Iraq, confirmed by local officials (see below). Even in mid-March, there's clearly no guarantee the campaign of terror is over. And neither is it reasonable to claim certainty about who is responsible for the carnage.

This page is incomplete, but there is more being gone over on the discussion page.

World Reaction
On Feb. 21, the Russians passed a draft condemnation of a terrorist attack that day, a suicide bombing that killed over 50 next to the Russian embassy in Damascus. The first phase only of the late February Scud campaign was chosen as one of two central points the United States insisted on appending before signing. This perceived attempt to justify the attack was deplored by the Russian UN mission on Feb. 21. They refused to sign the US draft for the following language:
 * The members of the Security Council also condemned the Syrian government’s continued, indiscriminate use of heavy weaponry against civilians, including its February 18 launch of ballistic missiles in residential areas of Aleppo and February 21 airstrikes that hit a field hospital in Dera’a. The members of the Security Council called upon all sides of the conflict to respect international law.

The Russian refusal was deplored by the US mission on February 22. That same day, the second phase occurred with the supposed Scud strikes on Ard al-Hamra and Tariq Al-bab. The perpetrators apparently felt enabled.

Over the following days, as the Syrian government both offered negotiations to end the conflict and denied, again, using Scud missiles, the issue clearly remained at the forefront for those seeking the government's ouster. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said "It seems to me that it's pretty hard to understand how, when you see the Scuds falling on the innocent people of Aleppo, it is possible to take their notion that they are ready to have a dialogue very seriously."

AP reports:
 * U.S. State Department spokesman Patrick Ventrell said the offer of talks was a positive step "in the context of them raining Scuds down on their own civilians." But he expressed caution about the seriousness of the offer. "I don't know their motivations, other than to say they continue to rain down horrific attacks on their own people," Ventrell told reporters in Washington. "So that speaks pretty loudly and clearly."

The National Scud Campaign
Scud missile launches, specifically, have been reported by US, NATO, and other officials from at least December, 2012. All or most of these are reported as originating in Damascus and fired north. (a tally will be assembled in time, on the talk page.)

Turkish officials have watched closely, and reported on February 21 that, nationwide "more than 40 Scud-type ballistic missiles " were fired, all by the Syrian government, starting in December "after it lost control of its northern provinces." By early March the reported number had doubled: Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said in an interview that "Al-Assad’s forces have fired 85-90 Scud missiles in the last two months."

By that chronology of allegations, about half of these roughly 90 attacks, apparently, came down in the 12 days between Feb. 21 and March 5. Even considered broadly, the vast majority of these launches seem to have gone otherwise unnoticed and unreported. The intensive campaign on Aleppo described above features only four missiles. At least one more on Deir Ez-Zor would be reported on March1, at least.

International Scuds
From the first reported launches of late 2012, the prominent impression and fear in the West is that the Scuds flying north out of Damascus might hit Turkish territory, perhaps triggering a direct NATO retaliation. While Syria does reportedly have variants (Scud C) that could hit southern Turkey, To date, none of these reported "85-90 Scud missiles" has reportedly crossed the border. The first reports were always that rebels or rebel-held areas were the targets, but often noted as landing "fairly near to Turkey," for example. That Aleppo and Idilb are the main reported target areas suggests a shorter-range missile of 300 km (Scud B or D) is being used at nearly its limits.

On March 1 (?) at least two Scud strikes were reported - one by rebels in Deir Ez-Zor, so implicitly fired by the government too (at about 390 km, within range for a Scud C). The other, also within range of Damascus, was reported by Iraqi authorities as the first confirmed international Scud attack of the conflict, against Iraq. It was identified by a local mayor in Tal-Afar, Nineveh province, as a Russian-made Scud, fired from inside Syria by unknown parties, that landed harmlessly near the village Yoush Tapa. The chaos of the close call did prompt locals to flee, which is a problem. It might have been a stray overshot - it is only 140 km from Deir EzZor. That's not likely. Later that day, Syrian and Iraqi forces worked together for the first time to reclaim a nearby border crossing just captured by Jabhat Al-Nusra, in a policy shift recently announced from Baghdad.