Talk:World War 3

General Joseph Dunford at the US Senate
I am moving this to the talk page as this seems to be controversial. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 07:42, 5 October 2016 (UTC) Uses answer to sen. Wikcer question (note in the follow-up that question was misunderstood, the answer clarified, somewhat). See also RT clip, US top brass grilled by Senator Graham on Syria, Kurds and ISIS, all taken from U.S. Senate hearing, National Security Challenges and Ongoing Military Operations Date: Thursday, September 22, 2016 --Resup (talk) 17:19, 4 October 2016 (UTC)
 * WW3 IS OKAY IF IT’S LIBERAL - The Alex Jones Channel

Discussion
Standoff between USSR/Russia and the West started after WW2, and did not lead to a global war despite having local conflicts; their leadership was not, and is not suicidal. -However, technology allows for it.

For IS, final war is an essential part of ideology; its propaganda magazine carries the name of the place in Syria where this final war is supposed to happen. In Iran, some different but apocalyptic version too.


 * Christian Bible followers also look forward to end times described in the Book of Revelations (Apocalypse) where a final war occurs before true believers are transported to heaven.
 * Jewish Rabbinical tradition requires the return of The Mashiach Messiah to allow construction of the third Temple.
 * The Torah prophesies the Mashiach who will be King in the End of Days. This seems to be the basis for the Christian Apocalypse, the Islamic final war, and the Rabbinical Third Temple stories. --Charles Wood (talk) 00:49, 11 October 2016 (UTC)
 * True, but significant differences too. Elsewhere (1) there were reforms and it was agreed that religious words allow interpretation and are not to be taken literally as transcribed millennia ago (2) afterlife is (by far) not the main focus, this life is; and similar for apocalypse  (3) milder or non-existent requirements to convert/conquer others (4) there is civilian government and courts setting laws and polices and not following religious prescriptions; those civilian norms are dominating, by far, religious ones; etc. --Resup (talk) 08:18, 11 October 2016 (UTC)

The ongoing proxy conflict between Russia and the West may merge these two trends above together. This is why it is important for Russia and the West to come to common grounds, as there is no ideological difference, 'just' geopolotics, egos, and greed. (Massive disinformation and stupidity, too). --Resup (talk) 07:47, 5 October 2016 (UTC)

Extension of the conflict - Thierry Meyssan, October 10, 2016
 * Do not believe presented version. Somebody had set out a clash between Russia and France, who are usually more close than Russia and USA. Putin plans to visit France later in October for some church opening event; his meeting or being scolded by Hollande causing diplomatic troubles and may further isolate Moscow. Could be that France have strong views on Syria too, it is a former colony. But going first to Moscow, than confronting Moscow is strange. Israel is there only as leftists need it to be a boogey man, what on heck French-Russian clash at UN has to do with Israel? Putin has better chemistry with Netanyahu than with any Western boss, Hollande including. Strange anyway. Ukraine jumped on this at once (according to some reports) and now does not want a Normandy meeting in Berlin on the day, after asking for a meeting all along after Crimea incident.

--Resup (talk) 00:20, 11 October 2016 (UTC)

As indicated in the above critique of Voltaire, president Putin has cancelled the visit to France. --Resup (talk) 11:14, 11 October 2016 (UTC)

PC Roberts, By Cooperating With Washington On Syria Russia Walked Into A Trap, 24 Oct., 2016 and He Who Hesitates Is Lost—And Russia Hesitated, 24 Sept. 2016. Sometimes, he seems to be in business of making ridiculous claims for their 'shock value'. Based on what he writes, he is clueless about why Russia is in Syria. Whatever he might have read on Saker blog, Russia is not in business of winning a war in Syria. It did not have that objective from the start, and had other reasons, establishing military cooperation with USA one of major considerations in those (rubbing a nose at them another). Russia is not a dictatorship or ideology-driven; and at the start there was nobody in the establishment interested in actual winning (and paying the price of what it takes); it was done for a variety of other reasons. Since the involvement started --planned as quite short one-but it did not work--the objectives evolved; it became transparent and plain what sort of partner USA is, at that time and place, in particular. Cooperation was not fully discarded still, yet the stance considerably toughened. As for the future, it is not set. This is more like geopolitical game than a traditional war (or Hollywood war movie). All that talk of a nuclear war, OK for raising awareness and increasing readership, but the reality is that chances of that, by either Russia or USA, are negligibly low, while there is a large variety of other more realistic threats (of economic and moral bankruptcy,  terrorism, and unending regional conflicts sort) --Resup (talk) 11:42, 27 October 2016 (UTC)

21 Apr. 2018 entry, mainpage. Me think not, no Pearl Harbor leading to WW3. I think it's pretty obvious to everybody that Skripal-Douma double-mix failed. Going after pretty blogeresses, a sign of desperation. Another chem attack, a boring lol. Nobody is in a rush to have WW3 either. Putin, even less, -unless into doomsday, the back against the wall, like he said, very openly. Most likely, Mueller-North Korea -Iran on the plate, with some jesters popping off the sleeve, of a few once in a while. --Resup (talk) 20:13, 22 April 2018 (UTC)

2021
Recent well-publicized tensions with Ukraine probably do not mean that the war will break any minute now. If for no other reason, since roads are bad this early in Spring. Probably at this point it is more to do with political maneuvering, but also includes military deplyments and planning. However, Minsk group talks are deadlocked --in particular as Ukraine is not seeking a compromise solution and tries to have everything back, both mentally and from being propped by Western encouragement aimed at causing troubles for Russia. Still, this was played for very long, with no resolution or end in sight, and it all may slide into a big war eventually, even though it may be not in anybody's best interest. As it comes to the point where sides cannot agree in talks, and there is not end in sight to Ukrainian shelling and killing, and cirumstances, s well as principles, may disallow keeping infinite patience forever. --Resup (talk) 23:31, 2 April 2021 (UTC)


 * Maneuvers, 2021
 * "Defender Europe", USA/NATO, now to June, also here
 * "Cossack Mace", announced by Ukraine, joint with UK/NATO 1, 2, 3 --Resup (talk) 13:36, 3 April 2021 (UTC)

May, 2023
Regarding mainpage video, I don't think it has been close to nuc. war, but also, it is not over any significant pivot point. Since such decisions are still taken by a limited number of rational and professional humans, who are well aware of consequences, and cost-benefit so far was nowhere close to 'going for it', for any of the nuc. powers. Ukrainian conflict did create instability, with some chances/danger of things going so badly off for Russia that it will have no other choice. Such dangers of uncontrollable catastrophic developments by now appear diminished, the most Ukraine can hope for is temporarily cut land route to Crimea, before eventually getting squeezed out of those gains, or reaching another stalemate. The leaders on both sides are neither suicidal nor particularly ideological to drive such developments into nuclear apocalypse; and they know too well which way the money flow for that too. Yet, situation now is far more dangerous then pre-2014, with important treaties gone, arms production boosted, and no trust and little respect on opposing side. For as long as tensions increase and no viable diplomacy in sight, the chances that future instabilities or randomness/accidents will tip things over the wills of rational elite humans will only increase, with no real pivot. Apart from that, it will stay controllable for as long as it is controlled by elite rational humans (and not by AI, or having societal craziness and decay penetrating the elite levels). Also, more and more regional powers will join in this, lowering the barriers for it to occur somewhere, starting at regional levels. --Resup (talk) 05:04, 2 June 2023 (UTC)

Outcome of a regional conflict
* For Russia.

Nevermind the mode, what's the outcome? At present Russian elites are pro -Western (or hedonistic). In case of a serious clash, patriotic opposition will become the patriotic government, while pro-Western opposition will accept it or leave. As a result, an inconvenient partner of the West which Russia still remains to be today will be replaced by a determined and strong-willed opponent. There may be a serious upheaval, loss, and hardship, but Russia becoming pro-Western as a result is not on the cards at all. This is basically creating a strong and determined enemy, in place of a weak friend --Resup (talk) 20:01, 9 October 2016 (UTC)

Another, similar version, a fastened generation change. Current leadership was raised in the USSR, experienced pro-Western influence in its ending days, including humanitarian western values, and materialistic wilder-than-west that followed. New generation of leaders in their formative years experienced sad results of the collapse, and do not have pro-Western or humanitarian romanticism. They are more cut-throat and less reflective than milder Soviet-raised generation, too. Those of them who are pro western are either far removed from political front rows/marginalized if in politics, or have left and have no real political traction. So the same outcome in this version, too. --Resup (talk) 10:30, 11 October 2016 (UTC)

* For USA.

Unclear, at the moment appears tactical (elections, Mosul), and media driven. Creating bad pre-war-like image of Russia may be actually not preparing public opinion for a small war but rather playing to one of the election campaigns at expense of the other. In reality this is not going to resolve any issue and will make them even more difficult and protracted. Economic collapse of an opponent Russia? That will not occur under war-like pressure, it will mobilize instead; and it is disputable whether economic collapse of a big country is desirable in present state of economy. --Resup (talk) 09:24, 14 October 2016 (UTC)

Prophesies?
I YouTube channel called World W. 3 News has been promoting the idea from March 2016 that World War 3 will start on October 8, 2016. What is so special about this date? As of today the timing looks about right: the constantly increasing rate of escalation steps indicates that the event horizon is in October 2016. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:43, 5 October 2016 (UTC)

P.S. - "Event horizon" in a crisis means that no plans need to be made beyond a certain date. Long term threats can be ignored if some short term threat is likely to make preparing for them irrelevant. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:47, 5 October 2016 (UTC)


 * Not in my October 8 schedule. Seems to be (evacuating) Saker-type crowd here (if not altogether another IP collection store). I'd have no clue. --Resup (talk) 13:50, 5 October 2016 (UTC)
 * LOL! They moved the date of WW3 to January 22, 2017. On YouTube you can rename videos and change thumbnail images. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:21, 11 October 2016 (UTC)

Linking to record that somebody bothered to count 1260 days from around 12 April, 2014 which is around days of Strelkov arrival to Slavyansk; no reason to be true, and in the realm of free human will, not a 'textology'. --Resup (talk) 23:54, 4 August 2017 (UTC)

French UNSC resolution vetoed
'Russia Calling! Investment Forum', Putin press conference, 12 October 2016 [English. Russian.
 * See also discussion above of Extension of the conflict - Thierry Meyssan, October 10, 2016 --Resup (talk) 09:15, 13 October 2016 (UTC)

''Our respected friend and colleague, the French foreign minister came to Moscow and presented the French resolution. To which our foreign minister said: “We will not vote against it if you take our amendments and considerations on this issue into account. We are deeply involved in this crisis, in these problems; we know the details.” To which his French counterpart said: “Yes, of course, nor do we want to be slapped with this kind of veto.” Our representative to the UN in New York was told the same. Lavrov laid out the Russian position and there is nothing excessive in it.

''I can tell you frankly what this was all about. The French resolution blamed the situation entirely on the Syrian authorities and said nothing about the opposition – in this case I am not talking about terrorists – the opposition that should also bear some responsibility, and some tasks should also be put before it. That is my first point.

''Second, we stated that we were willing to endorse the initiative of the UN Secretary-General’s special envoy Mr de Mistura regarding the militants’ withdrawal from Aleppo. The French side took a positive view of that. We expected further joint constructive work both with France and with other Security Council members.

''So what happened next? The French foreign minister left Moscow for Washington and the following day he and Mr Kerry accused Russia of every sin imaginable; no one talked to us and discussed nothing with us, and they threw this resolution at the Security Council, clearly expecting our veto. Why?

''Not for the resolution to be adopted – they submitted it knowing our position and without even discussing our proposals with us – but for it to be vetoed. Why? To escalate the situation and unleash anti-Russian hysteria in the controlled media, in fact deceiving their people and their citizens. I am referring now not only to France but also to many European countries and the United States. To all appearances, this is especially valuable in the context of an election campaign.

''I do not know whether or not this meets the interests of European countries, but serving the foreign policy interests and maybe even domestic policy interests of its allies, in this case the United States – is that the role that should be played by serious politics and serious countries that claim an independent foreign policy and the status of great powers? I am not sure about that.

Extreme space weather?

 * Obama wants a plan in place for "extreme space weather" - Newsweek, October 14, 2016
 * ''Executive order warns massive solar flares can significantly disrupt critical infrastructure on Earth.

Is Obama preparing for limited nuclear war?
In analyzing Russian action to Western provocations I have noticed that the Russian response is always de-escalatory. Russia will respond to any and every Western provocation but in a measured way. Something must be done in retaliation, but in a way that does not escalate the global crisis further.

I am afraid that Pentagon's strategic planners have now formed a game theoretical model of Putin: For every American nuke Russia will respond with half a nuke. Such a strategy fails to provide the same deterrence as MAD, Mutual Assured Destruction.

An unconfirmed rumor claims: "Forces at home in the US have been ordered to prepare for one-for-one intercontinental ballistic missile exchange(s) with Russia once the fighting breaks out in Syria!"

On Thursday October 13th President Obama gave an Executive Order to prepare the nation for "space weather events.

Why now? The solar cycle is nearing its nadir and the next storms are not expected for 9 years.

On Friday, October 14th the National Security Council meet to plan attacks against Syria. Is the timing just a coincidence?

If a nuclear exchange is limited to single blasts, then the most devastating effects to modern society may come from nuclear electromagnetic pulses. Nuclear weapons can also be used as pure EMP weapons if detonated high in the atmosphere.

Preparing and protecting against sun storms or "geomagnetic disturbances" and will also protect against nuclear electromagnetic pulses. Is the executive order actually preparation for EMP weapons or even a limited nuclear war?

-- Petri Krohn (talk) 00:51, 18 October 2016 (UTC)


 * Talking about measured responses, did you catch what Putin said about Biden's direct threat of a super mean, super covert cyberattack? "Now at least they admit these things ... this is outside of normal diplomatic relations ... it ain't even funny anymore". It ain't even funny anymore! Pure mockery, from the podium at the BRICS meeting in India. Remember when I told you on the eve of the awaited attack on Syria over the Ghouta thing that it won't happen (I tried to find it but failed)? Chill Petri, 99% of "Western" propaganda is at this point just fear-mongering to keep the own population in check - welcome to the multipolar world (this text is worth to be translated into English (and Russian)). --CE (talk) 02:01, 18 October 2016 (UTC)


 * From technical perspective, there is non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse bomb, which can devastate circuits, and is more likely to be used if things get out of the way than nuclear. Using nuclear is essentially suicidal while this is not. Whether it was about this threat, or genuinely weather, hard to be sure; they do plenty of strange things, not always for very practical reasons. Big flares are of random nature and still can happen even in low (average) activity. (And in case of nuclear war, having circuits and Ipads might be not the very top priority)  --Resup (talk) 02:13, 18 October 2016 (UTC)

"Air war between Russia and the US in Syria"
Comment to Here's how an air war between Russia and the US in Syria would go down - Alex Lockie, Business Insider, June 23, 2017
 * 1) Russia did not say it will 'target' coalition planes. What was said (robo) translates to:
 * In the areas (west of Euphrates, Syria) where Russian aviation performs combat missions in the sky of Syria, any air objects, including aircraft and unmanned vehicles of the international coalition, discovered west of the Euphrates River, will be received for tracking by Russian ground and air defense air defense as air targets (so tracked, not 'targeted', with no obligation to shoot down, or, in fact, not too).
 * 1) It is obvious to all that Russian air group in Syria is greatly outgunned by the coalition, which has numerous ground bases all around the region as well as several air carriers group available. It was said many times in Russian sources (a dozen or so times by Strelkov alone). In a hypothetical air combat  limited to just Syria, the Russian air group will not last long. However, this is immaterial and the whole talk is empty 'nonscience' fiction. There is no reason for such conflict, if started, to be conducted just in  Syria, and no guarantee it will be limited to non-nuclear weapons.  Any weakness in conventional weapons in fact creates danger of non-conventional response. Nobody would want to risk giving it a try and see what will transpire, because it will not be limited to a few servicemen, but will eliminate the elites, with the fullest possible write-down and zero in profits. So, those elites will emit some propaganda gas pretending this is about to happen, hoping to steer things in a desirable direction, but will not allow it to actually happen. In fact, encounters between the militaries occur daily for nearly 70 years, and certain etiquette is established and followed; whether outgunned or not, nobody is actually shooting, behaving pretty courteously instead --for a good reason
 * --Resup (talk) 14:22, 24 June 2017 (UTC)

In fact, the announcement appears to have little/limited effect. On 23 June, coalition had 1 strike on Palmyra, I think clearly 'west of Euphrates'; and on Abu Kamal, Ash Shaddadi, both right on Euphrates river. (Although safety protocol is announced to be suspended, probably actual communication line stays available for use of militaries, anyway) --Resup (talk) 15:28, 24 June 2017 (UTC)

Reports with unclear meaning and significance

 * This Russian report makes a big meal out of this announcement:
 * all samples (Synovial tissue and RNA samples) shall be collected from Russia and must be Caucasian. The Government will not consider tissue samples from Ukraine


 * Генерал-лейтенант Соболев. «Нужно брать власть в свои руки!» (video), 8 October, 2017. General-Lieutenant Sobolev (team member of the united CP & national-patriotic alliance), in a loud confident manner:
 * strategic military doctrine of USA is: to deliver first global disarming strike (by the way, by non-nuclear forces) on our nuclear forces. After that, in the opinion of American military analysts, we will have 15-20 % of different nuclear-armed missiles left, of different deployment. Anti-missile defense system is being built along our borders to counter those. In case if after such global strike somebody will be brave enough to press the nuclear button for a strike in response, the anti-missile system must intercept that. After this, invasion of ground forces is to start. And we keep talking about whether it will be, or not, a  nuclear war, not nuclear war. This is all spelled out in the US military doctrine !
 * Sokolov: Scenario of last year US maneuvers, capture of Kaliningrad district and destruction of the Russian Baltic fleet
 * (active field manuals? But I doubt his version is in those.) --Resup (talk) 15:24, 30 December 2017 (UTC)

Opinions
Yakov Kedmi (Nativ): US hysteria about Syria has one reason - complete impotence-"Youtube"(in Russian), 1 October, 2016
 * ''The reason is the refusal of the US administration to accepts world realities in which they are no longer the masters of the world
 * ''With street thugs, the weaker they are, the more they scream

Population experiments
Ideal society conditions modeled in mice and rats experiments led to extinction, via violence, narcissism and isolation.
 * John Calhoun's Mouse Utopia, 195?

Reddit users push AMC stock up 3 fold and Gamestop 1.3, inflicting losses to institutional traders, and putting extra question marks on the whole thing. --Resup (talk) 21:48, 27 January 2021 (UTC)

While Putin speaks remotely at Davos forum to compare the times with 1930's, that is pre-WW2 (while nominally staying positive)

Olympic games wars
2008 Beijimg games: Georgia (Abkazia, South Osetia, Russia); 2014 Sochi winter games: Ukraine; 2016 Rio games: Trump/Russiagate/Spygate; 2021 Tokyo summer games: TBA --Resup (talk) 17:03, 8 August 2021 (UTC)

Communications in sea drones attacks
There is a video from a sea drone attacking a Russian Navy ship in Novorossiysk, which is several hundreds of kilometers away from Ukraine or its friendly countries. How was that video transmitted? Horizon would be few kilometers. Digital selective calling does not transmit much, and (presunably due to reflections?) allows distances of some 100 miles. But presumably the drone video had to go via some NATO network (or Musk network not controlled by Musk), likely satellite or spy plane, making NATO a direct participant of the attack? Am I missing something here? --Resup (talk) 14:04, 5 August 2023 (UTC)
 * OK, maybe trying to use ground/sea wave and 300KhZ (LF). Then Shanon will imply that one can transmit of the order of 300 K bites/second, ie about 40 K bytes per second, while this thing was essentially live streaming something (before exploding), then I guess the question becomes can you livestream a video at this sort of rate? (and likely lower in practice) --Resup (talk) 15:16, 5 August 2023 (UTC)
 * This says 20 - 40mbps uplink with SpaceX. L3Harris have joint contracts with SpaceX. L3Harris are also contracted to supply Ukraine with counterdrone systems --Diagonal (talk) 15:31, 5 August 2023 (UTC)
 * A video I have seen (chain of custody, compression, etc, unknown) was 6.854 MB long, had some color (red viewfinder), and was 36 seconds long. That would need, methink, 190.4KBytes /second (if it was not fiddled with, like slow motion, which would make actual transmission only higher. No obvious editing seen on that video. --Resup (talk) 16:06, 5 August 2023 (UTC)
 * Starlink Maritime does not list either Russia or Ukraine. Starlink coverage map, presumably green hexagons, does not seem to show (available) coverage in mainland Russia or Crimea (and somehow does not show Ukraine, FWIW). There were reports (sample) that Musk blocked Starlink use in contested areas (somewhere, like "near Crimea"). Starlink map presently shows Novorossiisk (as well as all mainland and some newly declared Russia) in black, some in waitlist/coming soon ie (at least) not presently available....Unsure what to make of those reports and maps.... --Resup (talk) 16:33, 5 August 2023 (UTC)
 * FWIW, video presents itself as 1084 frames, of 464 x 848 colored pixels each ... without a compression that does not seem feasible to transmit over LF radio....unsure on livestram compression... --Resup (talk) 19:56, 5 August 2023 (UTC)
 * H264 video encoding (with limited time to encode, as it is destroyed in the end)....--Resup (talk) 20:40, 5 August 2023 (UTC)
 * Other satellite networks have patchier coverage, and perhaps quite limited bandwidth (for older networks). Eg Iridium coverage at this exact time shows nothing over Russia (b ut it's dynamic), says it needs registration in Russia, and mentions limited bandwidth ("176 Kbps to 704 Kbps"; Kb is presumably kilobit, not kilobyte which is KB). Also as an older network may be unsuitable for war-with-Russia purpose (having some Russian affiliate, etc). Unsure whether any other network could do the job; Starlink or military still seems best fitted --Resup (talk) 23:13, 5 August 2023 (UTC)
 * + I can see a report on Novorossiisk attack at Ukrainian telegram with time of Aug 4, 02:09 AM, which is presumably Kiev/Moscow time, = 23:09 UTC Aug 3
 * GX5 of Inmarsat is a possibility. Headquarters in UK; an office in China; most offices/funders/parents are Western; Thales the satellite manufacturer. This organization is not initially for war, but maybe it was used that way. --Resup (talk) 00:37, 6 August 2023 (UTC)
 * "Inmarsat is deeply concerned about the situation in Ukraine. We join the international community in strongly supporting sanctions and calling for Russia to cease hostilities immediately. "
 * Intelsat a possibility too .... --Resup (talk) 01:38, 6 August 2023 (UTC)