Talk:Odessa Trade Union massacre/Clashes

Locations
(for new finds, searches, etc.) --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:30, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

Timeline
Does Ukraine observe DST? All MH17 calculations presumed so, but ... Time and Date.com says Ukraine abolished standard time and opted to stay in permanent savings (summer) time in 2011, by vote of parliament. "Clocks in Ukraine were turned one hour ahead for the last time on Sunday, March 27, 2011," it says. Huh. Apparently was a Party of Regions move in consort with Russia (now switching back?) and Belarus. Kiev would presumably have changed this back to be more "European," but it's not refected at that page. Will continue to act as if. It's said Trade Union hall incursion was around 8 PM, and that's about sunset - using DST on, the NOAA solar calculator says sunset is about 8:00 that day in Odessa, instead of 7. Other thoughts? --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:30, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

From the Wikipedia Odessa clashes page:
 * A game scheduled in Odessa at 15:00 ... about 300 (pro-federalist) people gathered hours earlier -
 * Pre-rally at 14:00
 * first shooting around 13:40 --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:30, 25 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Considering the video timing below, these times might all be in GMT, 2 or maybe 3 hours behind local times I'd rather work with (sunset at 8PM base time - outting the rally at 4 PM) --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:43, 25 August 2014 (UTC)


 * 4:18-4:26: approximate time by shadows at the 10-minute point in the 20-minute Ustream video of the Unity rally and first clashes (azimuth estimate at 9:45 and 13:00 marks both about 251-253 degrees, elevation about 40 degrees? NOAA solar calculator (GMT +2, DST on) says that will be about 4:18-4:26PM. This would put the video's start amidst the rally around 4:10 PM, suggesting the game isn't until 1700 local, not 1500 (at least as I'm measuring here). --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:43, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

So this is some time into things, halfway between first clashes and the sunset massacre. But still, just around the corner from the first events. Hm. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:30, 25 August 2014 (UTC)
 * 5:05 PM: 7-minute clash video - on Zhukova lane by the stadium (?) I paused it at 1:26 to consider the man at upper left's shadow relative to the pavement edge here, for a solar azimuth of about 261 degrees (nearly west) Approximate shadow length vs. height gives a solar altitude - an oddly low 30 degrees or so. Can those coexist at a single time? Yes. NOAA says 5:05 PM (17:05) is a great fit: az 260.96, El 29.85


 * UNHRC: "...between 6.00 – 6.30 p.m., (federalists) decided to take refuge in the nearby Trade Union Building."
 * 7:31 - first emergency call, fire in tent camp
 * UNHRC: "At 7.43 p.m., the HRMMU called the fire brigade..."
 * UNHRC: "At around 8.00 p.m., the “Pro-Unity” activists entered the Trade Union Building" (apparently earlier...) --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:31, 25 August 2014 (UTC))
 * 8:07 PM - sunset (per NOAA solar calc, GMT +2, DST on)
 * 8:09 PM: fire crews arrive, further delayed by the mob

Clashing Parties
Militant actors, listed in order of "who started it" (as understood - may change)
 * (clearly anti-Maidan by appearance - likely flase-flag provocateurs)
 * Unity Rally (includes all who were in and moved with it - reportedly attacked by the above and fought back)
 * Other Anti-Maidan (at the site of earlier clashes, and at the Kolukivo field camp and later inside the Trade Union hall, but not apparently on its roof - presumably legitimate unless they show contrary signs, like the red-armband guys do)
 * Kulikovo Attack Mob (anyone who stayed with the same march as it went almost 2 km off course to attack people only maybe connected to the earlier clashes should be considered a different group by then with a different flavor and mission) --Caustic Logic (talk) 06:13, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

Red Armband Contingent
This shady-looking group is almost universally attributed, by people on each side of the issue, to the other side. The anti-Maidan sources call these Right Sector or similar, often noting that they're trying to appear "pro-Russian." Oriental Review report speaks of and shows "unidentified masked gunmen wearing St. George ribbons (symbol of antifascist resistance to Kievan junta!!!) and red arm-bands," and is pretty clear that they're more likely to be pro-Kiev extremists in disguise and acting as provocateurs. Meanwhile, Western mainstream and pro-Kiev reports describe these same instigators simply as the "pro-Russian" militants who, it seems, brandished the first guns, drew the first blood, and sparked all the ensuing violence (which it seems was very prone to combustion and extended burning). And, as the other side notices, they visually seem to be the greatest beneficiaries of early police inaction. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:33, 25 August 2014 (UTC)



Consider this image of a motley line-up in this camp (cropped a bit here from the usual view to give more face-space). Is it just this shot that makes them look so comical, more like they showed up to parody someone else than to be themselves? (It's no coincidence that's why I picked this shot to start with). Those silver shields clustered in front of them shields will be a couple dozen crouching policemen, although you can't tell from this angle. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:33, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

The 7:00 clash video shows the same scene from above; this seems to be on north-running Zhukova lane where these militants and police are somehow in one group, being pelted and pushed back by others. Several red armbands, esp. early in the video, among those making barricades, and the fat rifleman in the photo above, at least, appears later, around 6:00 in. The scene is described more, with a view, below. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:45, 26 August 2014 (UTC)

Another video shows Right Sector shooting at the Trade Union Hall victims (per Washington's Blog and the video uploader anyway) However, it looks too early in the day to be the main event - mid-late PM, location unclear. And this is the murkier but crucial red armbands crew: the fat rifleman is the main shooter. These might be Right Sector people, but it's not known that they are, the finer details of their outfits suggest otherwise, and they're widely called otherwise. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:33, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

Hrets'ka Street
Video: long UStream video (Youtube mirror) This video starts with rally in the park in Soborno Square (building: Odessa Spaso-Preobrazhensky Cathedral?) - moves east towards the nearby stadium, I thought. Shadows at 9:00 in suggest around 4:20 PM, so the start is around 4:10 (rough estimates, +/- 9 min.) At the park's edge, on north-running Preobrazhens'ka street, a moderate police presence, with more just then rushing in to the east. Along the west side of the street, a line of apparently pro-government militants, all in camouflage, with matching (wooden?) shields, holding a neat line along the park's edge and flying Ukrainian flags. Everyone runs across the street and east down Hrets'ka Street towards the big oval-shaped building with the blue upper part (center in the inset composite view) that's actually "Business center "Gallery Athena" ("Afina")" from which sniper shooting is alleged. The arean is some blocks further east, so this is still the route to the football game. About halfway to the business center is a police line. There's a lot of trowing smoke bombs fram different directions, and unclear action that would need more analysis. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:01, 26 August 2014 (UTC)

Zhukova Lane
A 7:00 clash video shows this incident from above; this seems to be on north-running Zhukova lane where these militants and police are somehow in one group, being pelted and pushed back by others. Some are seen running here from people largely wearing yellow and blue. They're making a show of taking shelter behind the cops, who let them. The militants are even pointing guns from behind them, if not firing (possible shots fired in audio, no expert). A composite view from several moments shows most of the relevant scene and at least 5 red armbands (right half). Points of note:
 * The militants make weak, useless barricades behind the police, and get seen moving things around as if they might be (a guy moves one tree inside a fenced area for no reason - 1:00 upper screen)
 * They aren't coordinating this with the police, very well - police trip over their trash bins while retreating
 * An interesting molotov cocktail with a flare in it (?) is hurled by the other side (lands 3:44, burns with extra energy 'til past 4:00 - this starts their retreat).
 * Several red armbands, esp. early in the video, among those making barricades (right in the panoramic image).
 * A heavyset (fat) guy in tank top with rifle, seen at left 5:55, is seen in the photo above, and also in the next video.
 * star shield - Soviet style? Genuine or parody? (2:16 lower screen, 6:30 left. center in the composite view above)
 * bald man addressing the police the whole video - emphatic gestures, at 3:00 getting upset with the stone throwers too - he's meant to be seen trying to make peace or something. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:33, 25 August 2014 (UTC) and --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:09, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

Time: I paused it at 1:26 to consider the man at upper left's shadow relative to the pavement edge here, for a solar azimuth of about 261 degrees (nearly west) Approximate shadow length vs. height gives a solar altitude - an oddly low 30 degrees or so. Can those coexist at a single time? Yes. NOAA says 5:05 PM (17:05) is a great fit: az 260.96, El 29.85. Estimate, then: 5:05 +/- 4 minutes. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:07, 26 August 2014 (UTC)

Kolukivo Field
This was of course a rather one-sided "clash," and I stand by our calling it a massacre. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:46, 27 August 2014 (UTC)

The Mob Arrives: The or a first arrival of the mob can be seen briefly at 5:19 in the slick 17-minute PolitRussia documentary video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGaaCDb9g1U (wanted: more direct video source with fuller context). Anyone who got there before this cameraman and entourage didn't get anything burning yet, although it seems the camp is already emptired. No one just then running in the hall is seen; the activists' decision to shelter inside was already made, and they were in. No police doing anything at all are seen right here; if they'd been there, they left without any fight we can see a sign of. Was the decision to abandon them to the mob already made? --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:25, 26 August 2014 (UTC)

The scene at 05:26 in this videos was useful to set a time by sunlight, as frozen, enhanced, and marked on the inset image of here: azimuth (what a sundial reads) is broadly 280-289 or time range 6:50 to 7:40, with a best middle (from a fuzzy shadow falloff line) about 284 = 7:12 PM. Solar altitude, read roughly (on the area in the green box), says a low 10 degrees or so. The azimuth reading is more solid, having a corresponding altitude of 8.25 degrees, but this may push it a tad up (earlier) - 7:11 +/- 5 min., to be adjusted for other clues. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:25, 26 August 2014 (UTC)

Short clips after that in the same video (6:02) suggests they wasted little time torching the camp and whatever flammable things (like signature lists for the referendum?) were in it. The first emergency call, reporting a fire in tent camp but not yet in the building, was at 7:31, according to transcripts obtained by public investigators and leaked to RT in August. This is clearly a no-later-than time.--Caustic Logic (talk) 13:25, 26 August 2014 (UTC)

Other key videos will be harder to time, as direct sunlight vanishes into the shadows some time before full sunset at 8:07 PM. But the UNHRC's estimated around 8:00 for the mob's entry into the building after the activists. This seems fair, being probably based on the one known video (from Denis Cherkasov, the only person to of the many to release their footage from inside, briefly). Men with bats, chains, etc. pour in through a jammed open door on the southeast end, into a building that's been entered for some minutes before that, by an unknown other members of the mob. So whatever time this is, it's another no-later-than one. The sun is too low or blocked by the building, but it still seems pre-sunset. The inset shows the glow looking NW, the entrance on the southeast end, and a view through that door to a window facing NW. Further in, this shows one last band of direct sunlight on the upper wall in the stairwell (see 1:17) --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:25, 26 August 2014 (UTC)

Police at Kolukivo Field?
Do we know, from video, reports, anywhere, what the deal was with police at this locale? Earlier in the day the cops were all over protecting apparent pro-Russian hooligans with red armbands, even as they shot people with guns. But here, there were more such guys on the roof, an angry mob who showed up, and ... no cops at all that I've seen yet. They appear soon-ish, at least, and help carry away those jumping out of windows to escape the mob or the fire the mob started. But where were they when the mob might still have been kept out of the building? --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:38, 26 August 2014 (UTC)

Disturbingly, yes, police were there when the mob was there, roughly. From the UNHRC's June report:
 * 43. Some “Pro-Unity” politicians called upon their supporters to march towards the Kulikovo Pole square. At 7.00 p.m., the “Pro-Unity” supporters marched in that direction, accompanied behind them by approximately 60 riot police. 

They came with the mob, in the rear, not ahead of them. There was talk preceding the move, supposedly gotten to the tent camp by 6:300 or earlier that they'd better hid. But police just couldn't find any way to actually beat the crowd there?
 * 44. The “Pro-Federalism” leaders were informed that “Pro-Unity” supporters were heading towards the tent camp, and between 6.00 – 6.30 p.m., they decided to take refuge in the nearby Trade Union Building. 
 * 45. At 7.30 p.m., when the “Pro-Unity” supporters reached Kulikovo Pole square, they burned all the “Pro-Federalism” tents. 
 * I'm pretty confident they were there touching tents no later than about 7:15, for what it's worth. And 7:31 is a no-later-than for maybe something like 7:24. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:15, 27 August 2014 (UTC)

Police Possibilities
Everyone wants to know what the hell was up with the police that day. This is sort of confusing to me, or maybe I just got myself confused. First, I sort of ignored the previous talk and just focused on what we can see, so far. There seems to be no police intervention to stop the culmination of the day's tensions at the Trade Union Hall. For about an hour, perhaps, it was a free-for-all there. But 3 hours before, as we can see in the clashes analysis below, the supposed anti-Maidan thugs were actively protected by the police as they shot people and provoked the tensions. Structurally, it seems the police were on the side of the tension and raising it. The beneficiaries of the massacre this tension caused was the Kiev government seeking to kill all talk of separation on Odessa. It did stop right after this.

Focusing first just on the early part where the cops were shielding the provocateurs, there are 3 main possibilities here for what the police were thinking at the time (possibly in some combination):
 * 1) They knew what they were doing: the widespread assumption of anti-Maidan thinkers seems likely; the police here were secretly pro-Kiev, acting pro-separatist, protecting Right Sector types in costume, to sow the rancor and then later, let it run its "natural" course.
 * 2) They were fooled: they were genuinely anti-Maidan/pro-Russia/whatever and thought the local anti-Fascists should be allowed to shoot at the other side. There's some support for this, actually
 * 3) No tricks: They really were protecting anti-Maidan militants: The provocateurs themselves were genuine anti-Maidan/pro-Russia/whatever and just stupidly set up the perfect provocation themselves (with police protection, withdrawn later for whatever reason...) There's even some evidence for this version.--Caustic Logic (talk) 11:02, 27 August 2014 (UTC)

They Knew
I've been working from, making a case for, this already, mainly looking at the other two ATM. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:02, 27 August 2014 (UTC)

They Were Fooled
Arguably anti-Junta police, not yet Kiev appointees, would complicate the scene for plots like these. Odessa's police chief Lutsyuk was vocally opposed to ultranationalist mobs, at least, well before the day, and was fired immediately after the massacre for failing to stop the pro-Russians (see here, to be expanded). No sign he was on the scene and involved - he could be just worked around somehow with right-wing cops put in charge of the streets that day.--Caustic Logic (talk) 11:02, 27 August 2014 (UTC)

But his deputy Dmitri Fucheji was apparently right there, looking the other way - or famously the same way - as the red-armbands pointed pistols around. The ID from that (Reuters) photo isn't so clear, but other footage looks just like him too (inset, below). Like his boss, he too appears to be anti-Maidan/pro-Russia/whatever. Later, he fled to Transnistria (pro-Russian part of Moldova) and spoke to Russian media (see video. Via Antimaydan Odessa on VK, he blames Tymoshenko's deputy Dubogovo and his deputy who "secretly" ran the police and issued "instructions not to intervene, as well as to collect all the police leadership to "meeting" and discuss common issues behind closed doors with mobile phones switched off." That would put some people out of the loop. That would be Lutsyuk, and perhaps Fucheji himself, as these jackasses decided in calling him a liar. But as the VK post says:
 * Fuchedzhi claims he is one of the entire leadership of the Odessa Police was May 2 not in the office and on the street with people and tried to stop the violence, negotiated, tried to reconcile the conflicting parties. In addition, he reminded of the duty to other policemen who were inactive on orders from above. In response, he heard: "Orders are orders, Lutsyuk ordered not to interfere with him, and there is no connection." --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:48, 27 August 2014 (UTC)

One source, sounding generally informed, implicates Fucheli for running the Kiev provocation, but makes a point for his being a hundrance to the plot and, like others, removed from the field: However, this is a good space for anything on this, like this I just found:
 * The role of the Odessa police forces in the operation was personally directed by the head of the regional police, Petr Lutsyuk, and his deputy Dmitry Fucheji. Lutsyuk was assigned the task of neutralizing Odessa’s regional governor, Vladimir Nemirovsky, to prevent him from putting together an independent strategy that could disrupt the operation. Fucheji led the militants right to Greek Square where he was allegedly “wounded” (in order to evade responsibility for subsequent events). (Bloodbath in Odessa guided by interim rulers of Ukraine Oriental Review, May 14])

Or was he simply wounded by a shooter who didn't like his attitude, and should be considered off the hook for what came next? --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:02, 27 August 2014 (UTC)

No Tricks

 * Alexey Albu, leader of anti-fascist ‘Borotba’ Odessa, who was severely injured in the later events at the Trade Union Building, reports that the men with the red armbands were his fellow activists of the "Defenders of Odessa". The activist of "Borotba" Ivan has got a gunshot wound into the belly from a military weapon. 

Maybe some were genuine and others injected themselves in their midst, or in whole other spots but with the same mark? This source doesn't say the guys shooting from behind the cops were Borotba - in fact, Borotbas were being shot, perhaps by those guys ... (Ivan not being a fatality, it wouldn't show on the list of fatal shooting, which seem to be pro-Maidan people, at first anyway) --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:48, 27 August 2014 (UTC).