File:Musings on the Chemical Strike in Damascus.jpg


 * Source
 * Heretic’s Musings on the Chemical Strike in Damascus - Yossef Bodansky, September 2013
 * Lots of other interesting details/claims in the report (starts with 1995 market attack in Sarajevo, disputed but quickly triggered NATO response).
 * Lays blame on Liwa al-Islam and its leader Zahran Alloush. Zahran Alloush was reported killed in 2015; Liwa al-Islam merged with Jaysh al-Islam, whose leader, Mohammed Alloush is  a (former?) senior negotiator with the Saudi-backed Higher Negotiations Committee, and heads the rebel delegation to the peace talks in Astana, Kazakhastan.
 * file

From an unpublished report including a "speculative indictment" of Alloush-JaI for the Ghouta attack and the possibly related "Caesar photos"


 * A week earlier, on August 13, the Facebook page of “Abu Hamza from Douma” announced that the “final stages” had been reached in preparing “a new surprise” for the Syrian government. This was placed under what seems to be a new photograph of Liwa al-Islam leader Zahran Alloush, smiling with other Jihadists then gathered in Turkey (Urs1798 screen grab ). It was never clarified what this “surprise” was, or if it ever happened. But it seems a lot of people were expecting it in those days, according to the well informed Yossef Bodanski in his essay Did the White House Help Plan the Syrian Chemical Attack? This is re-posted around and might appear dubious, but seems legitimate. 14 It says in part:


 * "On August 13-14, 2013, Western-sponsored opposition forces in Turkey started advance preparations for a major and irregular military surge. Initial meetings between senior opposition military commanders and representatives of Qatari, Turkish, and US Intelligence [“Mukhabarat Amriki”] took place at the converted Turkish military garrison in Antakya, Hatay Province, used as the command center and headquarters of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and their foreign sponsors. Very senior opposition commanders who had arrived from Istanbul briefed the regional commanders of an imminent escalation in the fighting due to “a war-changing development” which would, in turn, lead to a US-led bombing of Syria."


 * "The opposition forces had to quickly prepare their forces for exploiting the US-led bombing in order to march on Damascus and topple the Bashar al-Assad Government, the senior commanders explained. The Qatari and Turkish intelligence officials assured the Syrian regional commanders that they would be provided with plenty of weapons for the coming offensive."


 * The mysterious trigger event must have been the alleged sarin attack about a week later. That's the only thing that qualifies, and was timed to exactly one year since Obama's "red line" threat (or offer, depending) was first issued. That happened to come just after the UN's "inspectors" arrived in Damascus for other reasons - handy to proving the line was crossed on its birthday.


 * That event unfolded in or quite near Alloush's turf, and any “march on Damascus” it enabled would likely be led by his “Army of Islam.” This was presumably formed then but not yet announced, perhaps waiting for the realization of this grand offensive. Bodanski writes how expectations of US bombing continued into late August at least, but finally faded. Apparently it just took a while to switch to plan B and announce Jaish al-Islam anyway as they did in late September.


 * The obvious question is if Alloush and LiA were involved in that required and expected trigger event. To start with, there's a video of men in gas masks firing the exact type of rockets linked to the attack, they say on the same night those were launched, and likely from the same location (enhanced still at right and see ACLOS for details, Sasa Wawa for the (indirect) geo-location )These should be the exact improvised rockets blamed for dispersing the sarin, which John Kerry insists were fired from a government base 9 km away. But these things cannot fly that far, and they're apparently from a no-man's land at the edge of Jobar accessible to either side. They're displaying LiA flags and claiming to be Liwa al-Islam's “cold wind” chemical brigade, shouting Allahu Akbar.

...(snip dated details)...


 * Yossef Bodanski cites analysis finding Liwa al-Islam forces in Jobar (about where the rockets were launched from) included “the so-called ‘Chemical Weapons Front’ led by Zahran Alloush,” and this was the group “most likely to have conducted the chemical attack.”




 * A German blogger of some reliability, “Nochienparteibuch,” has compiled several good reasons to consider Alloush the "prime suspect" for the attack, including the fact that a Liwa al-Islam member “was in a group of extremists of Al Qaeda and Ahrar al Sham raided by Turkish police in spring 2013 for trying to buy large quantities of chemicals needed to make CWs" (cited: Al-Monitor) This analysis also points to the launch video and doubts, and points out how the other main suspects – Jabhat al-Nusra – feared a US bombing campaign that might turn on them as well. However, Saudi-sponsored “moderates” like Alloush would welcome the help, and so would have adequate motive to trigger it. In the same vein, LiA with its alleged links to Saudi intellience could offer promises of a “war changing event” and get NATO types to prepare, as it seems they were doing a week before the event...."

Note: the report is by me. Will add the remaining links later. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:59, 24 July 2017 (UTC)