Talk:Khakovka Dam collapse





Comments from local sources on the night

 * (To confirm) residents Telegram channel comments from the night
 * Since the morning of June 6, people began to report hearing explosions in a local Telegram channel about Nova Kakhovka with over five thousand participants. Some had lost their water supply, and some had already suggested that the dam might have burst.


 * Residents argued among themselves, some claiming that if the dam had exploded, all services – including Ukraine’s State Emegerncy Service (DSNS) – would have alerted them. One resident wrote in Ukrainian at 2:45 Moscow time that he saw a flare.


 * “The water is very noisy ... very loud, I've never heard such a thing. I'm scared of something... The flares are orange flares.”


 * Resident Lydia Kuznetsova responded: “But that's water, but why is it so loud? We can be without light again with these booms.”


 * Several dozen people commented that they could not sleep because of the noise, and were worried that something had happened. However, other residents reassured them and claimed that they did not see a “global flood,” did not hear explosions, and asked them not to cause panic.''


 * https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/17936109 - The dam of the Kakhov hydroelectric station in the Kherson region collapsed due to damage, goes flooding of territories. This was reported by TASS source in power structures. "It was quiet at night. There were no arrivals. The dam could not stand it, one support collapsed, and flooding went, "he said.

Seismic signals dam failures
Seismic signals captured by geologists and testimony on social media suggest a huge ground-shaking noise was heard in the early hours of Tuesday,..

Papers on seismic analysis of dam failures


 * https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978-3-642-36197-5_409-1
 * https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313327339_Characteristics_and_interpretation_of_the_seismic_signal_of_a_field-scale_landslide_dam_failure_experiment
 * https://mdpi-res.com/d_attachment/water/water-13-02757/article_deploy/water-13-02757-v2.pdf?version=1633779774

Key Points/Takeaways
Timings indicate no use of explosives to blow the dam A road section and its supports collapsed 1-2 June A previously shelled section of roadway close to the HPP and two thick concrete support columns that formed part of the slipways from the sluice gates closest to the HPP collapsed and were washed away between 1-2 June according to satellite photos from the dates. The breach occurred in that side of the central barrage section, closest to the HPP.
 * The large seismic event said to indicate a large explosion occurred at 2:54am local time, but footage revealed the dam had already breached by 2.46am. This indicates that the seismic event was most probably related to the HPP building giving way, rather than the use of explosives. An earlier weak signal at 2.35am was subsequently reported by NORSAR, is then likely to be the first breaching event. NORSAR has subsequently removed text from the web page

Sluice gate 1 badly damaged months earlier Canal blocked up Unusually high water levels in the reservoir --Diagonal (talk) 08:38, 22 June 2023 (UTC)
 * The sluice gate closest to the HPP had sustained significant damage from Ukrainian shelling months earlier. Resulting in more turbulent flows from that section. Where there is an earthern dam between the barrage and HPP structures. The threat from Ukrainian forces was reported by the local Mayor in March as preventing repair and maintenance operations.
 * The lock canal was filled-in during September '22 by the Russians, after Ukrainians had destroyed its road bridge, to build a new road. This would then prevent the canal being used as a slipflow around the dam in the event of high water levels.
 * Statista: The water level in the Kakhovka Reservoir, Ukraine's largest reservoir by volume, was more than 17 meters above the mean sea level at the end of May 2023, based on observations using the Sentinel-6 satellite series. That was the highest level over the observed period from the beginning of 2020.
 * May 4: Dam in Nova Kahovka cannot be opened due to damage and front line. So likely that it will burst in some moment and flood a good part of Herson @200_Zoka
 * The high levels appear to be due to large discharges from the Ukrainian controlled dams upstream the Dnieper as well as difficulties in operating the Kakhovka dam.

Storm Shadow Missiles?

 * Did Russia Destroy The Nova Kakhova Dam? - Moon of Alabama, June 13, 2023

Reported comments from Putin
Putin - about the explosion of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station:

''I will say a strange thing, unfortunately, this thwarted their counteroffensive in this area. Unfortunately, why? Because it would be better if they were advancing there. It's better for us, because it would be very bad for them to attack there. But since such a spill occurred, the offensive did not take place.'' Source