Talk:Crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17/Zaroshchenskoye

Three questions?
These three questions need to be answered. (Discuss each issue in a separate section below.) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 03:14, 27 July 2015 (UTC)
 * 1) Where there BUK launchers in Zaroshchenskoye in mid July 2014? What proof is there of their existence?
 * 2) Were there Ukrainian soldiers in Zaroshchenskoye in mid July? Who were they loyal to? Or were they somehow trying to remain neutral?
 * 3) When and how did NAF take over Zaroshchenskoye?

Partial Answers
I don't think we know for sure (and I do not see Zaroshenskoe as the only possibility, despite Almaz-Antei report; matching fragment damage to missile orientation being the tricky part)
 * 1. Russian MoD gave us satellite photos. Bellingcat tried to disprove it, with an early attempt debunked. Than they purchased satellite images from a commercial provider and claimed that MoD   were faked.
 * I do not have a strong view, could be inaccurately presented by MoD, or commercial photos are not accurately timed, or we see those images at different angles and image qualities, which appears as a mismatch. Since 'investigative' methods at bc are propaganda-driven, conclusion cannot be reached just on the basis of their presentation; there is no independent info available to me.
 * Zaroshesnkoe photos Zaroshenskoe 17 July, 11:32 "A= two Buk M1 self-propelled missile launchers, B= one armored vehicle" Zaroshenskoe 18 July, 11:39 (A, B gone)
 * Also Donetsk, Lugansk photos
 * I understand, Bellingcat disputes those from Donetsk
 * 2. It was not a base really, some launchers parked there is all, can move easily. Loyalties -we do not know
 * 3 I do not know (was not following really, as never had strong belief in Zaroshenskoe location. Maps can be found and may give some answers). Almaz-Antey was telling us, Buk was from Zaroshenskoe, and we do not know who was there at the time. Without more research, that would be state of play here. --Resup (talk) 03:38, 27 July 2015 (UTC)
 * Another bc on Zaroshenskoe-has a collection of maps at least and usual twisty stuff leading to the predetermined conclusion. I have not gone through all that and unsure whether will have time in the near future. But all this long winding stuff can be probably summarized as we do not really know.  And no reason really to focus heavily on Torez and ignore anything else.

MOD presentation-Zaroshenkoe at about 10:00 mark

Novaia Gazeta, Grabovo, Zaroshenskoe and Snezhnoe interviews. None anywhere mentioned Buk contrail or seeing Buk; conflicting account on planes. About half reluctant to talk on camera or afraid.
 * Anatolii, Grabovo. He says at the moment he looked up (he was swimming) he saw a fireball, which quickly disappeared into clouds. That was followed by the crash. His description does not match Buk contrail, could be a flare
 * Zaroshenskoe. Several interviews, mostly audio. Confused account seemingly agreeing that Zaroshenskoe was not controlled by either side; that nobody saw Buk itself or tracks, although some tried to find tracks; one woman said that there was another planes on that day (first interview), the other woman said she did not see herself so cannot tell; than the first one said she did not see it either but her husband saw it and told her
 * Pevomaika, Snezhnoe. Woman says there was another SU
 * Another interview, woman says it was a drone; and that she saw multiple white trails going up. She was afraid it is phosphor bomb, later thought it could be flares ;- but in another interview similar multiple white trails were attributed to opolchenie trying to shoot a plane--creating cloud of fragments  in the sky (unsure here, - have not heard such description before; likely just an anti-aircraft gun? (like here) or is this some sort of cluster  type munition? )
 * Diadia Serezha (uncle Serezha)-said that military planes were often hiding under civilian ones, and thought it could happen on the day; thought that Boeing could be shot with an anti-aircraft gun
 * Nikolai Ivanovich. Have not seen much apart from the crash itself. Confused/afraid account. (There was some sound but he did not see another plane, and did not claim there was one) --Resup (talk) 07:43, 27 July 2015 (UTC)

Just realised something that might compromise the primary Bellingcat witness - the one that supplied trail photo. The only photo till now. Here is his statement: "And at 16:20 we heard an explosion. The first explosion was not very heavy. 15 seconds later, something like that, there was a second explosion, which was louder and it made the windows shake.” Of course 15 seconds is impossible if Snezhnoe is the launch site, particularly location claimed by Bellingcat. Will not go into it right now as it can be argued that his 15 seconds is a perceived number and should not be taken literally (although why so accurate, could be just 20 sec). More importantly is a description of two explosions. First small and second very loud. Now, the first explosion is attributed to rocket launch. Second is rocket explosion. From first glance it is logical that second will be louder. But the second explosion happened 20 km ground distance from his location and 10 km in altitude, according to Bellingcat fairytale. At 10km air pressure is only 100 mbar. 10 times less than on the ground. It is low vacuum and sound will be strongly attenuated. He could probably hear it better if he was just under the hit point. At oblique angles the warmer air in lower parts of the atmosphere will make refractive index to change creating reflection interfaces that will further increase sound dissipation. His description, particularly with claimed time interval is just impossible. So, either it is a total fake or the missile hit the target at much lower altitude and very close to his location. From leaks in the media, his photo and testimony are also going to be center point of Dutch report. If true, shame on them. Let me know if my analysis has a flaw.--Antidyatel (talk) 09:21, 30 July 2015 (UTC)
 * Interesting thought. Two things, whether it helps and physics. I am skeptical on the first (missile launch wooshing sound vs a blast at a distance, both played by an ear and reported with a long delay--not very usable. Other witnesses described it in different ways but some were saying it was a blast or like something dropping of.

Physics-wise, at this distance, it is no longer a shock wave and will propagate as sound. Therefore, pressure and velocity drop as 1/L, and intensity which is sort of P v dies as 1/L^2. It is doable, though not immediate, to have an estimate of what those will be say with 70 kg TNT going off. This is without attenuation. Actually I do not know quickly how that will attenuate. Engineers will tell that attenuation is frequencey dependent, and this is low frequency which pretty much just 1/L^2. --Resup (talk) 11:04, 30 July 2015 (UTC)

First of all he was not talking about whooshing sound but about explosion. But let's skip this point for now as it is relying on his 15 sec claim, which is easily brushed away. In terms of physics. The explosion at 10 km will be happening in low pressure environment. Intensity is defined as I=(ξω)^2cρ, where we have particle displacement, sound frequency, speed of sound and density. For the same blast we can assume displacement and frequency the same. Pressure is 10 times smaller so density is also 10 times smaller. Due to low temperature the speed of sound is also smaller,roughly 20%. So we get more than 10 times smaller initial intensity. Then we have a refraction index difference between upper and lower levels of atmosphere. That gives two effects: 1) sound is reflected from the boundary and thus lost to propagation towards the guy; 2) sound is refracted towards the Earth making the wave, actually reaching him, travel longer distance and thus, be more attenuated. Your formula only takes into account geometrical attenuation of spherical wave. We should also look at attenuation by moisture in the air. It was cloudy, so that part of attenuation will be quite high. Of course the actual value should be calculated but I'm quite confident that this will not get the overwhelming explosion that he describes. And it will definitely not shake the windows. Not sure about that paper but they claim that 100dB is equivalent to 99.8 kg of TNT detonated at 12.5m distance. At 20 km it will attenuate to 42 dB just by geometric attenuation (which is a background noise in large conference room ). For 150 dB the result will be 80 dB at 20 km by geometric attenuation - noise of the vacuum cleaner. Still not able to shake the window. If we add other attenuation factors we can practically forget about second explosion. --Antidyatel (talk) 13:07, 30 July 2015 (UTC)
 * Thanks for the paper. Earlier comment I was about to put:
 * what you call (ξω)^2 really should be internal energy per unit mass; there is no frequency here; there is also velocity and pressure, and gas dynamics equations relating all. It is interesting and doable with some effort, and will depend on density although not in such simple way-- but I am skeptical it is helpful to refute MH17 claims. Can't really compare outcome of this computation with a witness statement - other people did hear it and said it was 'loud', he could hear it as well, and his account is imprecise in any case.
 * It seems to me official investigation will not use the photo, they will perhaps say about direction--that's what I thought after reading CNN and/or Parry ---somewhere from the front because it hit the cabin--and they did not use Antey stuff so far. In front, there was Russian separatists--bingo, case closed. --Resup (talk) 15:26, 30 July 2015 (UTC)
 * What's going on in this paper--100 kilograms at 12.5 meters distance???? No way this is 100db. I think they put this is high-bar test reactor and took care to have it as quiet as possible ...

Got an idea for an estimate. Up to some numerical constants of order 1, shock wave will turn into sound at a radius r0 such that c^2 rho r0^3 = E= released energy. I think this r0 for 70 kg TNT is about 8 meters (which seems low but this is what I am getting). At his point, our intensity I, which we take as energy per volume times c, is I=c^3 rho (this does not depend on E, but size of this ball does). Than at a distance R, our intensity is c^3 rho (r0/R)^2. With R = | {20 km, 10 km} | , getting  6 watts per square meter--what on hell that would be in loudness? Looking it up, reference intensity is 10^(-12) watt/m^2 --getting 127 decibel which is loud ...--Resup (talk) 17:38, 30 July 2015 (UTC)

127dB at 20 or even 10 km mark from the explosion of 70kg TNT is unlikely correct. It could have been at 10 meter distance but not at 10 km. Here is the video of BUK LAUNCH. It doesn’t seem that rockets go far but I can hear any of the explosions. . --Antidyatel (talk) 00:52, 31 July 2015 (UTC)

Unauthorized launch story
Unauthorized launch story appeared early on, also quoting unnamed sources; we had this somewhere, in fall of 2014. Nothing more definite came out, so this seems to recycle old story, not a new information coming out now. Debunk link--could not see much said in there on the issue. Novaia Gazeta published Almaz Antey and than two competing versions, the last one 'there were no planes at all and our unnamed sources tell that Russians did it'. It ends with Petrovskii delivering Buk audio transcript. But Petrovskii recently denied involvement, on social media forum. And those unnamed sources said it both ways --Resup (talk) 02:46, 27 July 2015 (UTC)

Official Facebook Reaction
MoD of Ukraine: no UAF flights in ATO area on 17 July, no UAF zenith anti-aircraft missile systems used, it is not true that UAF training accident caused MH17 crash. У день катастрофи літака Boing-777 авіація Повітряних Сил Збройних Сил України в районі проведення АТО польоти не виконувала, зенітні ракетні комплекси не застосовувалися

Інформація про те, що можливою причиною катастрофи літака Boing-777 (рейс MAS-17) авіакомпанії “Малазійські авіалінії” 17 липня 2014 року у небі над Донеччиною може бути нештатна ситуація під час проведення тренування підрозділів ППО Повітряних Сил Збройних Сил України не відповідає дійсності та може бути розцінена як спроба вплинути на результати незалежного розслідування трагічної події. Про це сьогодні, 25 липня, повідомили у Командуванні Повітряних Сил Збройних Сил України у відповідь на поширену деякими російськими засобами масової інформації заяву з посиланням на так зване “джерело в одному з силових відомств України”. У день катастрофи літака Boing-777 польоти авіації Повітряних Сил Збройних Сил України в районі проведення АТО не виконувалися. Зенітні ракетні комплекси Збройних Сил України не застосовувалися, жодного пуску зенітних керованих ракет не проводилося. Довідково. 17 липня цивільний літак Boing-777 (рейс MAS-17) авіакомпанії “Малазійські авіалінії” виконував рейсовий політ за маршрутом Амстердам (Голландія) — Куала Лумпур (Малайзія) на висоті 10100 метрів. О 16.45 літак впав в 3 кілометрах на північний захід від населеного пункту Грабове, Шахтарського району Донецької області. MoD of Ukraine facebook post (in Ukrainian) 25.7.15 korrespondent.net (in Russian) 25.7.15 --Resup (talk) 13:25, 27 July 2015 (UTC)

International Tribunal

 * Russia is set to vote against establishing international tribunal at the UN vote on July 29. Russian position is that this is an isolated criminal case and not a threat to world security requiring special UN tribunal structure; and that setting the tribunal now before the official investigation is completed as unnecessary and divisive; has filed an alternative proposal (involving special representative, and more transparency -as they are now excluded from investigation).

Commentary. It appears to me outcome of Yukos case tribunal may play a role here. Yukos matter is not as black and white as sides presented it; it was in legal grey area, with laws not sufficiently developed after collapse of the Soviet system; and there was unfairness at privatization and operation stages, as well as unfairness of selective prosecution of that. But all those subtleties were just thrown away on some 3 pages of the final judgement, and full market value of the company before the affair was awarded to claimants. This is a very long decision overall and I do not have command of all details and legal aspects, but from outside it appears as steamrolling the case really; replacing one injustice by another (the people are told to pay; but they have all but nothing to do with this and do not owe the awarded amount). Likewise here, once it is in legal rather than investigative field, all sort of legal steamrolling may show up. Tribunals are good only if they are fair, and seen as fair. (What are even the laws governing such tribunal, and who are lawyers practicing it? Where do they come from? ). It may be not by accident that Khodorkovskii stated in July 2015 TV rain interview that he  "is not interested" in Yukos legal process (still supporting Leonid Nevzlin and others handling this)
 * Also, former Yugoslavia tribunal was widely unpopular in Russia at the time and this feeling in Russia has sharpened since
 * Russian officials stated that other civilian aircraft were shot down, and special tribunals were not used in those cases. --Resup (talk) 19:54, 27 July 2015 (UTC)


 * Russia vetoes UNSC MH17 tribunal resolution -TASS --Resup (talk) 00:57, 30 July 2015 (UTC)