Talk:Crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17/Map

Interception Location
My best guess for interception location is at the intersection of the physical evidence heading east-west and the ephemeral trail heading North-West from that point.

I've done some searches on METARS at the time without useful result. My guess at this time it was a South-East wind - combined with a substantially West to East flight-track. Other METARS info welcome.

See image



--Charles Wood (talk) 11:12, 10 August 2014 (UTC)

That's an interesting graphic. It has way more dots than any I've seen. The Wall Street Journal's maps show less pieces, with whole areas blank, but the ones it does show, it says what they are. From this, it seems the nose came off first, and forward parts behind that. * The cockpit and lower nose cone came down like a bullet in that lonely middle dot. Higher drag but heavier forward fragments northwest, lighter forward fragments northwest of there. That's pretty clear - southeast means from that way, right? I've said northwest, meaning to specify to the northwest. These added dots give more shape and it seems a bit NNW. Hence, all debris is north of the flight path. The impact point will be back along that line, I don't think very far. FWIW I mapped it out and the intercept point seems to be no less than 25 km from the Snizhnoye firing spot, and I doubt it's more than 28 km out. But that's subjective, I don't know for sure how quickly it would fall apart. I know PA-103 popped like a balloon from the one little hole, but is it the same if there's a bunch of holes? Will it blow apart then, or just decompress more gently through all those holes and then tear apart over time? And how much time? How much does the decompression worsen the holes? Etc. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:38, 10 August 2014 (UTC)


 * METARS will be very useful. Too late for me to chase. If we know the wind direction we can start making sensible comments on the debris trails --Charles Wood (talk) 11:44, 10 August 2014 (UTC)
 * And/or we can measure the wind by how the stuff drifted. :) I also have as support apparent SE winds at Zuhres, but that was just after noon, and some kilometers west. We could also check the smoke plume video - U@War will know which direction that was filmed.--Caustic Logic (talk) 11:38, 10 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Hey! an ACLOS First? Assuming no spoilers we have the exact interception point within a few hundred metres! A Km at worst!
 * How to pubish momentous moment? --Charles Wood (talk) 12:00, 10 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Getting close anyway. At least you and I could agree on that - I like how that agreement has been working out. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:46, 10 August 2014 (UTC)
 * I certainly can't. Don't think that those guesses (can) make any sense. Just a remark on the Dutch map: Their purpose was to find human remains and personal belongings, so those yellow dots can be anything including pieces of clothing. --CE (talk) 14:07, 10 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Well, disagreement keeps us working and on our toes, so good. Clothes are a good point to consider - very low weight, high drag. The extra dots continue way to the NNW. I think the breakup/wind/scatter part is pretty clear, it's just how far back the hit was (the main point) that can't se seen as clearly. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:25, 11 August 2014 (UTC)

Someone at aviaforum.ru has found a possible impact point. It now seems that the FlightRadar24 flight path is almost correct. The cockpit, which is the part that is most likely to fall along a ballistic trajectory is only 0.5 km north of the flight path. This still does not explain why both FlightRadar24 and the Russian ATC radar put the last normal cruise point some 10-20 km ahead of the breakup point.

If this is the breakup point the the disintegration of the front part must have been extremely quick. This scenario assumes that the lighter roof sections drifted some 3-4 km downwind (points 66 and 63 on the Dutch map). -- Petri Krohn (talk) 02:24, 11 August 2014 (UTC)



Breakup pattern
(not intercept-related: after the front came off, it looks like the rest of the plane crashed intact at Hrabove, with no real spread aside from what the fireball tossed up (that might have had a southward roll for whatever reason, and the wind to the NNW left it just south of the main impact - tail on the road, lighter stuff west) --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:38, 10 August 2014 (UTC)
 * No. The only part that crashed "intact" was the wing with its engines, landing gear and half-full fuel tanks. Everything else had peeled off, including the roof above the wing and the side panels. The wing section burnt, the other parts are still intact. See List of MH17 airframe parts. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 01:17, 11 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Well that's my reading ATM, not gospel or anything. But it's from what parts landed where, what was damaged to explain that, and the video of the plane falling.


 * From 0:31 in the falling video. For the record, I had to cheat a bit to clarify it like this, selecting and amplifying darker and lighter areas. The right wingtip is unclear if there or not but otherwise the video (if no single still frame) is clear this is the plane seen from the underside, nose-diving, main body, left wing and engine, tail section all intact, right wing/engine on fire and maybe part of the wing gone, front part seemingly missing but otherwise intact. It's seen diving like this for about 1:00 straight with two explosive events (0:02 and 0:13), ending in the impact. --Caustic Logic (talk) 02:23, 11 August 2014 (UTC)
 * I think the video shows an Ukrainian An-26 falling, mislabeled as MH17. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 02:27, 11 August 2014 (UTC)
 * As the picture's talk page now explains, apparently so. The video support part of my assessment falls apart and I think we have zero footage of MH17 falling. Also, the "what landed where" is incomplete, but a quick scan (of the simplified picture per the WSJ graphic) did suggest MH17 fell apart about like this video would have showed (the front-first part, at least...). But obviously, my reason to disagree with your assessment didn't hold and I'll defer to it until I can confirm it. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:09, 11 August 2014 (UTC)

Buk locations and flight paths
I am copying over part of a comment by Andrew over at Saker's blog. What we should have is a cooperative page on Google maps with all these points marked, or alternatively a Google Earth file.


 * ''The Telegraph has / had a post with a visual map reference and an image from the purported launch site toward Saur Moglia.


 * Alleged Rebel BUK at:
 * 47^58'26" North
 * 38^45'37" East
 * Exactly 2km due east of Pervomaiskyi village behind a row of trees.


 * The Ukrainian Buk's at:
 * 47^59'00"N
 * 38^27'03"E
 * and
 * 47^59'00"N
 * 38^27'00"E
 * 750M due south of Zaroschenske Village


 * I think your most conservative assumption would be to put the reported final flight bearing of 117^30' from TAMAK Waypoint
 * 47^51'23"N
 * 39^13'00"E
 * as the flight path at impact and draw your line back from there. On Google Earth this is a direct line from the dot representing Yenakijeve and TAMAK.


 * An intersection point is northwest of Kirovske village. I agree with the deflection of the plane by the missile, but would suggest the diversion was a curved path, not a direct intersection. :Possibly the entire fall was on a curve due to the aerodynamics of the plane breaking apart. This would account for the ejection of the cockpit and tail to the south of the fall path.


 * I also noticed this interesting conclusion tonight:
 * http://ukrainepost.blogspot.com/2014/07/mh17-tamak-waypoint_17.html


 * If they had fully carried through the math, thought about the detection range and flight time, they would have seen Snizhne to be impossible as they recognize the 1 minute missile flight time.
 * Too many people are confused and think the plane just falls down instead of taking a ballistic trajectory.
 * Why did MH17 leave L-69 for L-980 and then why did it attempt to return?
 * According to the Flight Plan I have seen, it was supposed to be flying Air Path L980. So the real question is what it was doing in L69 to begin with, as it implies it was diverted between Kiev and Dnipropetrovsk or the pilot got lost at GANRA waypoint and accidentally headed for Donetsk. At Donetsk it looks like it used Air Path W533 (?) to recover to L980 over Gorlivka.

More on the TAMAK waypoint:
 * Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 downed near Ukraine border
 * ''TAMAK is the waypoint where the air routes L980 and L69 converge over the boundary between Dnipropetrovsk airspace in Ukraine and Rostov-on-Don airspace in Russia.

TAMAK is located at 47°51'24.0"N 39°13'06.0"E (47.856667, 39.218333). The last normal point on MH17 flight path was 51 km in direction 300 degrees. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 01:28, 8 August 2014 (UTC)


 * This analysis does not take into account the Russian radar track that has the aircraft deviate significantly to Port / North from the planned track. Innocent explanations for this (if correct) include deviation to avoid thundery weather that is known to have been in the area - from public lightning servers.


 * --Charles Wood (talk) 09:30, 8 August 2014 (UTC)
 * That also shows a different final heading 111 instead of 118. For this final stretch, the deviation can be ignored, and the trajectory is only so important (as just one of the factors in determining spread). --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:11, 8 August 2014 (UTC)


 * "Too many people are confused and think the plane just falls down instead of taking a ballistic trajectory." Yes, but ... the factors in that will be: remaining flight trajectory (x mass, - drag, per piece), prevailing wind, and gravity. Averaged together, parts may wind up straight down, further along the path, or some other direction - even back on the path. "If they had fully carried through the math, thought about the detection range and flight time, they would have seen Snizhne to be impossible" It's this new report's calculated impact point that supposedly rules that out. But it is based on 20-30 km due east movement before the last debris, which is not very well explained (math not followed through?). See my new graphic and explanations at the report critique spot in a few minutes. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:30, 8 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Historical evidence of similar inflight disruptions - TWA-800 and Pan-Am 103 - show the debris trail starts almost immediately at the point of explosion with heavier debris falling straight down. 'Ballistic' fall is a modern fiction. Either parts of the aircraft continue flying and in the case of TWA-800 actually gain altitude for a period, or they fall essentially based on density and drag. In no way do they fall based on classical ballistics.


 * TWA800 and Pan-Am 103 demonstrated how parts of the aircraft oversped and broke apart into major sections - exactly how evidence suggests MH17 broke apart. The MH17 tail detached and fell earlier than the main body. The cockpit section was in a completely different location.


 * --Charles Wood (talk) 10:40, 8 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Seconded - or firsted and thirded, whatever. PA 103 debris spread - almost totally perpendicular to flight path, due to wind. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:11, 8 August 2014 (UTC)
 * (except) "The MH17 tail detached and fell earlier than the main body. The cockpit section was in a completely different location." Correction: the cockpit and nose (and a bit of the forward plane behind that), perforated, came off first. The rest of it to the tail apparently hit in one piece, aside maybe from the (right?) wing, which was on fire. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:11, 8 August 2014 (UTC)

Which air route was MH17 flying over Ukraine? Russian ATC radar says L69. FlightRadar24 says L980! -- Petri Krohn (talk) 12:00, 8 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Not sure ATM, but keeping discussion moving. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:11, 8 August 2014 (UTC)

Location
Do we have this set? I don't. Reports say nearest towns are Snizhne and Torez, east of Donetsk. I looked between them, in the better-matching north part centered here on Google Maps. Was looking for the apparent church (?) but no clear luck. The area mifgt also be south of the highway. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:30, 27 July 2014 (UTC)

If not, photos that might help:
 * Flight Deck photo with row of trees (road, presumably) and (church?)
 * Observers drive by recognizable buildings at "the main crash site"
 * Left wing tip photo shows the same area in the background. other buildings to the right.

That last area looks like maybe a small mining operation. Might be this spot, suggesting the road we mainly see is the one running southeast from there, little trees on left only facing southeast), wreckage mainly on the right. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:09, 28 July 2014 (UTC)

Sorry, the area is partly set. Digital globe crash site images. There was also a Hrabove mentiioned, but the one over by Poland came up ... now I see it's just at the edge of the Hrabove north of the spots I was checking above - homes just to the east may have been damaged. Sometimes my links come out goofed up, but hopefully this comes through - there used to be a cluster of buildings at the end of that little road, empty now. Coords 48.137 38.64 --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:56, 28 July 2014 (UTC)


 * Lots of clues - unverified - at Wall Street Journal. e.g.


 * "The plane's cockpit and dozens of bodies plummeted into Rozsypne, about 2 miles from Petropavlivka. One body fell through a woman's roof. A pilot strapped to a seat wound up next to a flight attendant in a nearby field.


 * Charred remains of an engine, landing gear and wings fell in a fireball next to Hrabove, with a tumbling storm cloud of at least 70 bodies, some of them largely intact."
 * --Charles Wood (talk) 06:56, 28 July 2014 (UTC)


 * The latter part sounds right. Rozsypne - in two sections BTW - is three creeks west of Hrabove. Exact area and even which part of the town not set by satellite images, but maybe can be matched by site photos. --Caustic Logic (talk) 07:36, 28 July 2014 (UTC)


 * According to this detailed NYT graphic nothing fell on either part of Rozsypne directly. One thing fell in the middle of Hrabove, most just south of there, and a couple doys even further west, just shy of Petropavlivka. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:36, 28 July 2014 (UTC)


 * Wall Street Journal worked their clues into a list of parts with locations now. --CE (talk) 09:49, 30 July 2014 (UTC)
 * That is an excellent resource - photos next to labeled maps of the three areas, dots for each fragment, labeled. We can see where heavier and lighter parts landed, forward vs. main, etc. For a handy shortcut, the three maps are here combined into one image --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:37, 8 August 2014 (UTC)

Satellite Comparison
New Handy-dandy satellite image comparitor of before and after impact Crash Slider Viewer

From User blackbird69 on Pprune

The map is a result of the dutch governmental reply to an independent investigation by rtlnieuws (a dutch commercial news agency).

RTLnieuws bought satelite images of about 137 km2 of the area where MH17 had crashed. They bought images from 16th of july and the 26th july both taken around 09:00 in the morning. These images were analyzed by a company named NEO. This company used software to determine relevant differences between the two images. These differences were judged twice by experts to determine if these were trivial or not (i.e. moved garbage can, livestock, etc). The debris attributed to MH17 is on the map. From the satelite images it cannot be determined what the debris is.

RTL nieuws published the map, and the dutch government reacted by a fact sheet which includes the map mentioned in the post above. The colors mean: GREEN: inspected by investigation teams. RED: Areas forbidden by the rebels to be entered : ORANGE: Uninvestigated area.

The link to the RTLnieuws article is here (dutch): Groot deel rampgebied niet onderzocht door missie RTL Nieuws

Here is the actual images used to identify debris: MH17

The dutch investigation teams mentioned before in an interview that they were using satelite images.

RTLnieuws is trying to get reporters in the unsearched north-west area, but has not yet been successfull. It is unclear who has control of the area of the crash site.

The news agency also interviewed a refugee who claims to have seen the plane intact but burning breaking through the clouds and see it break into two. Couldn't find a link on internet.

--Charles Wood (talk) 01:54, 11 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Interesting. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has claimed that they searched the "main areas" before leaving. --CE (talk) 02:57, 11 August 2014 (UTC)

Russia's Radar Evidence

 * NSNBC July 22:
 * Tony Cartalucci (LD) : MH17 Show & Tell: It’s the West’s Turn. Russia has now shown its satellite pictures and radar information from the Donetsk, Ukraine region during the July 17, 2014 Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 crash.

...(citing Wall Street Journal)...
 * In an elaborate presentation displaying radar and satellite imagery, (air force chief Igor Makushev) said it was likely that the second airplane was a Ukrainian fighter jet. He also showed satellite photos allegedly portraying several Buk ground-to-air missile systems in the area close to where the plane crashed. The systems, he said, could only belong to the Ukrainian military. Ukraine has accused Russia of giving the rebels a Buk system, with which they then shot down the passenger jet.


 * Mr. Makushev said the airplane deviated from its course by 14 kilometers, but then attempted to return to its course, before crashing shortly after.


 * He said Russia is prepared to hand all of the information it has to European authorities, which included satellite imagery and data from its own radars

An image from that, showing the deviation at Donetsk that Russia finds odd.
 * RT on the press conference.


 * CNN on the "propaganda war"
 * In the tangled aftermath of the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 disaster, two narratives have emerged -- one that most of the world subscribes to, and another that Russia and the rebels are pushing.
 * Note: one side just presented its own detailed radar information. The other side relies on private company Flighttracker 24, it seems. Not field radar, this follows transponders only, I think. It would not see any fighter jet shadowing the plane. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:57, 29 July 2014 (UTC)

On August 5, it was reported, Russia's collected radar data and an anlytical report were handed to and received by members of the Dutch inquiry. As Flightglobal reported:
 * The data has been sourced from the area control centre at Rostov, which oversees the Rostov-on-Don flight information region to which MH17 would have been handed after exiting Dnipropetrovsk airspace.
 * Russian federal aviation regulator Rosaviatsia says its representative group, led by its deputy chief, has transferred requested information – including the Rostov air traffic data – to the Dutch inquiry. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:55, 5 August 2014 (UTC)

Russian Humour
A remark on the Russian claim that the satellite data presented by Ukraine had to be from the US as the Ukrainian satellites Sich-1 and Sich-2 have not been in the area at the time of the satellite data: This was A JOKE by the Defense Ministry sticking it to the Ukrainians in a rather cruel way. Sich-1 has been the first satellite a post-Soviet country sent to space, in 1995. It had a lifespan of one year or so. Sich-2 was the effort to continue the glory of Ukrainian Space Exploration in the new millenium and had a long history of delays and failures before it was finally sent into Orbit in 2011 - and "stopped communicating with ground control on Dec. 12, 2012, as a result of a faulty power supply battery". In other words, Ukraine doesn't have any earth observation satellites over the scene at any given time. ;o) --CE (talk) 11:09, 5 August 2014 (UTC)

Nearby Flights
(partly radar in nature, maybe more eyewitness related) This seemed interesting - not sure what to make of it except the Indians not wanting to get drawn into a he-saw-they-said dispute over this particular crime/accident/tragedy.
 * August 5 http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Singapore-govt-stand-suggests-AI-aircraft-was-flying-close-to-MH17/articleshow/39659173.cms
 * Singapore's transport minister Lui Tuck Yew told the parliament that Flight SQ351, headed to Singapore from Copenhagen, was just 90km (56 miles) from the Malaysian plane at that time. TOI had carried a report on July 20 saying AI's Delhi-Birmingham flight was flying barely 25km, or 90 seconds away, from the Malaysian aircraft when the latter was hit. All 298 people on board flight MH17 had died.


 * Within hours of the tragedy, the media had picked up data from flightradar24, a live flight-tracker website, showing the AI and Singapore Airlines aircraft in the vicinity. The two aircraft were at different altitudes though. The Malaysian one was flying east, while the AI and Singapore aircraft were flying west. The AI pilots were even asked by the Dnipropetrovsk (local Ukrainian) ATC to contact the Malaysian aircraft after it went off the radar.


 * The Indian civil aviation ministry continues to deny the AI aircraft was near flight MH17.

How plausible is their denial, and if not the truth, what else might be causing it? --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:22, 5 August 2014 (UTC)

U-Turn?
here's an image from the Before its News analysis shows MH17 making a 180-degree U-turn that looks pretty unilkely. It's based on the final plots not lining up with the crash site, and reasonable attamps to connect them with two possible arcs. When I've seen that kind of mismatch before, it's meant nothing but something being off somewhere in recording, translating, and mapping the numbers. Described as "Reconstructed trajectory of the plane after last known “good” data transmission.," almost as if this is something they're really arguing for. Is it valid or a clue? I don't think so. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:25, 30 July 2014 (UTC)


 * The Russian maps is wrong as it assumes the plane approached the crash site from the east. In fact it came from the west. Either the plane flew a 100 km full circle or the GPS data it broadcast is false. I believe the data recorded by FlightRadar24 is extremely reliable and I understand the Russian ATC tape to show that ATC received similar coordinates in the transponder beeps. The only explanation is that MH17 was guided off course by an escort fighter feeding it false GPS satellite signals. I explained the whole thing in my blog post, but don't think I even want to link to it here as someone might think we are conspiracy nuts. What I did not mention is that the Indian pilot overheard MH17 being given "direct routing" i.e. to screw beacons and fly by satellite. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 01:39, 5 August 2014 (UTC)