File:Martenson.Scenario.png

Summary
Source: How We'll Get Through The Coronavirus Debacle Chris Martenson, April 7, 2019 (From 17.22)


 * Refs: Report 13 - Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries Imperial College London Covid-19 Reports



Prevalence of antibodies

 * Fundamental principles of epidemic spread highlight the immediate need for large-scale serological surveys to assess the stage of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic - José Lourenço & al., March 2020
 * Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study - FT, March 24, 2020
 * Coronavirus UK: Half population could be infected, says expert - Daily Mail Online,
 * ''The new model from Oxford University suggests the virus was circulating in the UK by mid-January, around two weeks before the first reported case and a month before the first reported death.
 * ''This means it could have had enough time to have spread widely, with many Britons acquiring immunity. Sunetra Gupta, a professor of theoretical epidemiology who led the study, said testing was needed to assess the theory. ‘We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys – antibody testing – to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,’ she said.
 * Coronavirus: The High Cost Of Being Wrong - March 26, 2020
 * ''Counterarguments to the suggestions of the Oxford Study in this video from Chris Martenson. Based on 4 week window of disease progression for antibodies to be active and the observed rate of doubling of reported cases. (From 19.56) See also How We'll Get Through The Coronavirus Debacle Chris Martenson, April 7, 2019 (From 17.22)

Knowing the true infection rate would allow one to determine the fatality rate. If infections have been more widespread than estimated then the fatality rate is lower. If they are not more widespread then the fatality rate has not been overestimated. Nassim Taleb argues contra John Ioannidis that uncertainty in data increases the risk of underestimation.

Scenario B? Santa Clara Study

 * Up to 4% of Silicon Valley is already infected with coronavirus - Antonio Regalado, MIT Technology Review, April 17
 * Antibody study suggests coronavirus is far more widespread than previously thought Kari Paul, The Guardian, April 18, 2020
 * COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California (Preprint) - John Ioannidis et al, MedRxiv April 17, 2020
 * The Fight against COVID-19: An Update from Dr. Jay Bhattacharya Hoover Institution April 17, 2019
 * Dr. John Ioannidis Announces Results of COVID-19 Serology Study - Journeyman Pictures, April 19, 2019

False positives?

 * Chris Martenson If the new Antibody tests are 93.5% accurate (i.e. "sensitivity') then this means if true incidence of Covid in population is 1%, the test will return a false positive 82% of the time.
 * L C Wheeler I tried to make a pair of visualizations that show what what this thread is saying in a way that I hope is easy to understand...
 * Peter Kolchinsky ..Flaws w/ this study (authors acknowledge) could trick you into thinking that getting shot in the head has a low chance of killing you...