Turkish military incursion into Syria

Jarabulus

 * ''To add: shelling of Kurds near Jarabulus

Latakia

 * Turkish artillery shells Syrian territory – Russian military presents video proof - RT, 1 Feb, 2016
 * Video: Видео артиллерийского обстрела сирийских населенных пунктов с территории Турции - Russian MoD, Feb 1, 2016

"Buffer zone" plan

 * Morning Briefing | July 28, 2015 - Webster Griffin Tarpley
 * ''"Pushing ISIS away from the Turkish border, regardless of the semantic argument over whether it will be a buffer zone/safe zone/no-fly zone or “civilian haven” are all methods for achieving the same end. Any place along the Turkish-Syrian border put under the control of the NATO-Turkey-Saudi-Qatar Axis represented by Gen. Allen would act as a smuggling route transporting ISIS fighters, money and equipment into the country and oil or other resources out of the country."

Stopping refugees

 * ''See also Category talk:Leaks

Erdogan at November 2015 meeting: ''Greece got more than 400 bn euro during euro crisis. We should have invested some of that money into a safe zone in Syria, which would have solved all problems with refugees.
 * "We Can Put Refugees On Buses": Leaked Memo Shows Erdogan Blackmailed Europe For Billions - ZeroHedge, February 8, 2016

Azaz corridor about to collapse

 * Rebels in Syria face critical defeat around Aleppo - Michael Cruickshank, Conflict News, February 4, 2016
 * ''The main consequence of this advance around Aleppo is that rebel-held territory has been split into two pieces in northern Syria. The larger piece contains the majority of Idlib province, as well as the bulk of the rebels’ fighting strength. This includes large amounts of land held by Jabhat al-Nusra, Al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate. The smaller piece north of Aleppo city is hemmed-in: to the north by Turkey, to the west by the YPG/SDF in Afrin Canton, to the south by regime forces and to the east by ISIS. This puts it in an incredibly precarious position, likely to begin losing territory to all three groups.

Speculation

 * A Turkish-Friendly Zone Inside Syria - Ed Stafford and Soner Cagaptay, The Washington Institute, January 29, 2016
 * ''The most effective way to monitor the Azaz-Jarabulus border area would be to ensure that the Syrian side is filled by forces friendly to Turkey, or at least opposed to IS. One possible such group would be the Syrian Turkmens, who are ethnically related to Turks and are being trained by Turkey as a fighting force in northwestern Syria.
 * ''The zone, for its part, could serve multiple purposes, such as providing enhanced personal security for those fleeing barbaric Assad or IS rule, a staging area for anti-Assad forces, and an area for reducing the refugee flow into Turkey and then on to Europe. The idea of a Turkish-friendly zone would receive support in European countries already feeling overstressed by the Syrian refugee arrivals. Such an area would also interdict the movement of resources to IS, hence weakening the group, as well as allow Ankara to impede the movement of IS operatives into Turkey to target its economic resources, such as tourism. The area's creation would demonstrate to the Turkish people and allied countries that Ankara is serious about defeating IS even as it continues seeking stronger action against the Assad regime.
 * Turkey’s Syrian Calculation: Gambling on an Invasion? - Patrick Cockburn, Counterpunch, February 1, 2016
 * Syria's Enemies Seek Face Saving Escalation Measures - Moon of Alabama, February 4, 2016

Plan

 * Enough is enough — U.S. abdication on Syria must come to an end - Michael Ignatieff and Leon Wieseltier, opinion in The Washinton Post, February 9, 2016
 * ''Operating under a NATO umbrella, the United States could use its naval and air assets in the region to establish a no-fly zone from Aleppo to the Turkish border and make clear that it will prevent the continued bombardment of civilians and refugees by any party, including the Russians. It could use the no-fly zone to keep open the corridor with Turkey and use its assets to resupply the city and internally displaced people in the region with humanitarian assistance.
 * ''If the Russians and Syrians seek to prevent humanitarian protection and resupply of the city, they would face the military consequences.


 * Rusvesna report and drone photos, Feb. 12, 2016
 * According to the general staff of the armed forces of the Syrian Arab Republic during the period from 7 to 10 February the Turkish military command moved to the Syrian border  a total of 30 tanks, more than 20 self-propelled artillery guns and 30 field artillery guns of various calibers.
 * This equipment and armament was secretly placed on the territory of Turkish military installations. So,  up to 6 tanks were stationed on the Turkish border checkpoint "Chobambey" (photo 1), 7 tanks at the border checkpoint near the town of Boz-Dag (photo 2) , and  at firing positions  at the border checkpoint  near the town Arbash Dag  2 armored personnel carriers were found (photo 3).
 * kp.ru: 'Turkey moved to the border with Syria 9 brigades and 3 brigades are on the way (and it is up to 60 thousand people at 250 tanks)', + map of hypothetical attack by Turkey and the western coalition

Warnings

 * Grounds to believe Turkey planning military invasion in Syria - Russian military - RT, 4 Feb, 2016
 * ''“We have serious grounds to suspect intensive preparations by Turkey for a military invasion on the territory of the sovereign state of Syria,” Major General Igor Konashenkov, Defense Ministry spokesman, told journalists.
 * ''“We are recording more and more signs of concealed preparations by the Turkish military,” he added.
 * Turkey preparing for military action in Syria: Russia - PressTV, Feb 4, 2016
 * ‘Aggressors to return home in coffins’: Syrian FM warns against foreign ground op - RT, Feb 6, 2016
 * Battle for Aleppo: a Detailed Analysis - Pyotr Skorobogatyy, expert.ru, February 9, 2016, translated for Fort Russ
 * ''Turkey refused to allow a Russian observation flight over its territory in accordance with Open Skies Treaty. A Russian aircraft was to overfly Turkish border regions and NATO airbases. This incident which many media did not report is rumored to have stopped the Turkish land operation. Russian specialists had proposed a flight route which made it clear that the Russian General Staff knows very well what is being prepared, and that the Russian reaction will be extremely harsh.
 * A “No-Fly Zone” in Syria Is Still Insane - Daniel Larison, American Conservative, February 9, 2016
 * ''Ignatieff and Wieseltier are at least honest enough to acknowledge that they want to risk war with Russia. Some advocates for a “no-fly zone” in Syria try to deny that the risk exists. Fanatical interventionists that they are, the authors are not concerned about the risk of war with a nuclear-armed major power, and so they dismiss the dangers of their preferred course of action by saying, “risk is no excuse for doing nothing.” That’s insane. If the choice is between “doing nothing” and potentially starting a war with Russia, the risk that such a war would necessarily entail is an outstanding excuse. Avoiding an even larger, more destructive conflict with one of the world’s major powers is as good a reason for rejecting military intervention as one is likely to find.
 * Russia’s PM Medvedev Warns of New War if US, Arab Troops Invade Syria - Sputnik, February 12, 2016
 * Assad says sees risk of Turkey, Saudi Arabia invading Syria - RT, Feb 12, 2016

Denials

 * Turkey: No plan for military incursion in Syria - Paul Antonopoulos, Al-Masdar News, February 5, 2016
 * ''A Turkish official speaking on anonymity told Reuters that Turkey had no plans for an incursion in Syria. “Turkey does not have any plans or thoughts of staging a military campaign or ground incursion in Syria,” a senior Turkish government official said.
 * ''He did continue to blame Moscow however for an escalation in the Syrian war.
 * Erdoğan says Russia must be held accountable for killings in Syria, Today's Zaman, February 5, 2016
 * Is "laughing at" the "propaganda" claim they were preparing an invasion; says it's Russia which is invading and responsible together with Assad for "400,000" people killed.


 * Turkey, Saudi Arabia to hold joint drills: Military sources - Deniz Zeyrek, Hurriyet Daily News, February 10, 2016
 * Turkish paper Hurriyet cites Turkish General Staff Official "Will not invade Syria without UNSC resolution":
 * ''The Turkish General Staff has two important considerations regarding the international community over sending troops to Syria. The first of these two is that the United States has not made any preparations for ground troops to be deployed to Syria, as it knows a United Nations decision cannot be met due to Russia’s stance in the civil war in Syria.
 * ''The second was that the Turkish army would not set foot on Syrian soil without a U.N. Security Council resolution.

Threats

 * Turkey must intervene in Syria! - İbrahim Karagül, February 8, 2016

Turkey to 'defend Aleppo'?
Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that his country intends to protect the Syrian Aleppo, calling it a return of the historical debt, RIA, Feb. 9, 2016
 * Turkish PM warns Russia by recalling Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (this does not have 'defending Aleppo')

Saudi troops?

 * Saudi invasion of Syria: The bluff that could ignite World War III - Finian Cunningham, RT, February 7, 2016
 * The Disingenuous Saudi “Offer” to Fight in Syria - Daniel Larison, American Conservative, February 8, 2016
 * ''At most, the Saudis are “offering” to participate in a ground war in which U.S. forces would be doing the vast majority of the fighting, and even then they would not be able to contribute very much to the effort. The Saudis are “inviting” the U.S. to put our soldiers at risk to advance their goals in Syria because they can’t do it for themselves and probably wouldn’t even if they could. This should make clear that all of the candidate pledges to orchestrate the creation of a Sunni Arab army to fight ISIS are nonsense. Syria hawks have to pretend that a ground war in Syria wouldn’t be fought primarily by U.S. forces, because once it becomes clear that this is what will be required their preferred policy will be rejected. Considering how unwilling the Saudis have been to commit large numbers of ground forces to their appalling war in Yemen, it was never credible that they would be willing to do more than that in Syria.
 * التحالف الاسلامي بقيادة السعودية متجه الى سورية (Islamist alliance led by Saudi Arabia heading to Syria) - Feb 8, 2016
 * Video: Saudi vehicles being transported through Jordan (Wednesday, Feb 3, 2016?)
 * Saudi’s decision to send troops in Syria ‘final’ - Al Arabiya English, February 11, 2016
 * ''Brig. Gen. Ahmed Al-Assiri, said that Riyadh is “ready” and will fight with its U.S.-led coalition allies to defeat ISIS militants in Syria, however, he said Washington is more suitable to answer questions on further details about any future ground operations.
 * The Race To Raqqa Is On - To Keep Its Unity Syria Must Win - Moon of Alabama, February 11, 2016
 * ''The Saudis would fight under the control of the one brigade of the 101st airborne that was not announced to go for Mosul. The Saudis would deploy from Saudi Arabia likely via a U.S. controlled airstrip in west Iraq towards Syria while the brigade from the 101st would probably deploy from the Kurdish area in north Iraq through the Kurdish areas in north-east Syria towards Raqqa. Raqqa would thereby be attacked from a north-eastern and a south-eastern [direction]. The airport of Rumeilan/Abu Hajar would be one of the major supply bases.
 * Syrian peace talks: stark warning from Russia as US backs role for Saudi troops - The Guardian, February 11, 2016
 * ''Dimitry Medvedev, Russia’s prime minister, was quoted telling Germany’s Handelsblatt daily: “The Americans and our Arab partners must think hard about this – do they want a permanent war? All sides must be forced to the negotiating table instead of sparking a new world war.” Medvedev was apparently responding to suggestions that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states might join the US-led campaign against Islamic State in Syria.
 * ''Earlier, the US defence secretary, Ashton Carter, tentatively welcomed the prospect of ground troops from Saudi Arabia, though in a modest role providing special forces or helping to train local forces, rather than the full-scale Islamic coalition to fight Isis, previously hinted at by Riyadh.

NATO support

 * NATO to decide on supporting Turkish air defense - TASS, Feb 10, 2016
 * Stoltenberg: Spanish Patriot missiles to stay in Turkey for another year, Feb. 9, 2016
 * ''NATO has agreed to keep Spanish Patriot missile batteries in the southern province of Adana for another year to protect Turkey from potential threats from neighboring Syria. Stoltenberg recently said that NATO allies are seeking to send aircraft and command ships to Turkey in an attempt to boost the country's defense capabilities. The U.K. will provide aircraft to Turkey's İncirlik Air Base in Adana while Germany and Denmark will supply command ships to NATO forces in the Mediterranean. Spain is also providing Patriot missile batteries in southern Turkey. While NATO has increased air defenses for Turkey for many years, Turkey's downing of the Russian warplane that violated its airspace on Nov. 24 has drummed up NATO support.

Russian troops?
Russia may be preparing to send ground troops to Syria. The operation could take the form of a "peacekeeping operation" along the Turkish border.
 * Unannounced combat readiness inspection started in troops and forces of the Southwestern strategic direction - Southern Military District, Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, February 8, 2016 (09:37)
 * ''General of the Army Sergei Shoigu stated that in accordance to the order of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces, forces of the Southern military district, separate formations of Airborne troops and military transport aviation have been put on “Full” combat alert since 5 a.m. The inspection is held at the Southwestern strategic direction.
 * Southern MD units and formations to be projected at the distance of more than 3,000 kilometers within the unannounced inspection- Southern Military District, Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, February 8, 2016 (14:15)
 * ''Moreover, aviation of the Aerospace Forces is to be redeployed at the alternate airfields.
 * Russia Answers Turkey - Patrick Armstrong, February 10, 2016
 * ''Looking through the site shows there are a lot of other activities in the Southern Military District since this order was given on Monday. This is clearly a warning to Turkey and a preparation for acting if Turkey doesn’t take the hint.
 * The Wannabe Sultan Meets A Russian Airborne Division - What Is He Going To Do? - Moon of Alabama, February 9, 2016

Analysis

 * Is Erdogan mad enough to invade Syria? - Zen Adra, Al-Masdar News, - February 4, 2016
 * Week Seventeen of the Russian Intervention in Syria: does Erdogan want war with Russia? - The Saker, February 6, 2016
 * Russia Is Preparing the Syrian Army to Repel Any Turkish Incursion - Elijah J.Magnier, Al-Rai, via Fort Russ, February 6, 2016
 * Will The Saudis And Turks Really Invade Syria? - Andrew Korybko, Sputnik, February 6, 2016
 * ما هي دوافع القرار السعودي بارسال قوات برية للحرب في سورية؟ (What are the motives of the Saudi decision to send ground troops to the war in Syria?) - Abdel Bari Atwan, Rai al-Youm, February 5, 2016
 * Why Erdogan Will Not Invade Syria - Probably! - Alexander Mercouris, Russia Insider, February 8, 2016
 * ''US opposition almost certain to deter Erdogan from trying to change the military balance in Syria by direct Turkish military intervention
 * Foreign Policy Diary – Turkey's Military Intervention to Syria - South Front, February 10, 2016 (Video)
 * Turkey gives mixed signals on Syria - Semih Idiz, Al Monitor, February 9, 2016
 * ''Pro-Erdogan media drums support for an invasion of Syria, but military experts say this is not feasible.
 * Porkins Great Game ep. 12 Newsbud Special: Inside Turkey’s War in Syria - Porkins Policy Review, February 11, 2016