Talk:Events of March 2011

Page Scope
Should this be a page on the events of March 2011, on that time in Dara'a, or just the shooting of protesters there? Because there doesn't seem to have been very much outside Dara'a area that early, but within it was also child torture and other pretty important things. I suggest the shooting violence only here, and any others we cover on their own pages, linked together. And for that, I propose we have a page for the early months together, maybe all of 2011. Give everything room to breathe. Would require a move and re-direct, however. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:14, 12 April 2013 (UTC)


 * I thought it to be relatively narrow - your existing proposal on the "other research" site (Daraa 22-24) seemed to be too narrow - but in March just from harvesting that one BBC article below we have events in Daraa on the 15, 18, 20 (that sniper shooting on the funerals seems a central event to create outrage), 23, 24, then the demonstrations reacting to the events in other cities, I saw in your JREF summary that there have been sniper events in Latakia and elsewhere, etc. That's already quite some stuff to cover. Doesn't have to be strictly only March, but the idea was to investigate the fuse that was lid in Syria. We must assume that each of those events was reaching the target audience in the designed version over Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya, igniting. But we can broaden or narrow the focus at any time, let's see where it leads us. btw - move plus no-re-direct is practically a rename, which is also possible at any time as long as there aren't too many links from elsewhere to the article. --CE (talk) 13:37, 12 April 2013 (UTC)

Starting Thoughts
Always thought looking closer into this could be useful, quite a lot of fog over it, especially over what happened in Dara'a. As mentioned today on the new syrianews.cc site, not even the names of the children are known, just the same story repeated over and over again. Checked the french report The Lebanonization of Syria for details, but only the usual story there as well. The documentary embedded in the linked article seems to be worth watching - on liveleak, trying to embed here (*previews* - nah, doesn't work):



A collection of links to early articles about the events in Dara'a is here - text in German but links to English articles. (see below, collecting --CE (talk) 18:30, 11 April 2013 (UTC)) --CE (talk) 12:14, 11 April 2013 (UTC)


 * Watched the film now. It's not that relevant really. Some mildly interesting footage from Jish Al-Shugour and the Lebanese border, for a screen shot or so, but not much more. First three min about Daraa, got us a screenie of the Omari Mosque Imam. --CE (talk) 00:03, 13 April 2013 (UTC)


 * I looked into this a little bit once and have always meant to come back to it. It is entirely possible the government would try to repress protests with live fire, but it didn't seem these worked. Rather, the one or two killed at each protest were taken as like a lottery. You're either the martyr or one of the hundreds driven by him, a chance you take. They don't disperse or get repressed, only provoked, and convinced that guns, not protests, will be the way. And that's familiar from Libya. See below, deserves a section. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:42, 11 April 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, good add. I recently found that blog of the Homsi "freedom fighter" by searching for the "Shabiba" Ba'ath youth organization and actually read his whole story. Some odd things about it and I wonder to which extent it is made-up propaganda (armed groups don't feature at all in the life of that guy who lives with his parents and does basically nothing while the dictator is killing his own people). But the part about how it started is quite interesting. He was involved in laying the foundation of their Arab Spring with guys on twitter and they agreed on the date March 15th to start it. Problem: nobody came. At least not in Homs. And next to nobody in Damascus. So they retried daily at this or the other mosque. The first demonstration with notable attendance was not before a good week later on March 25, and he got severely beaten up by some thugs, he says, for filming the event, while no general oppression took place. And the reason why people were coming that day: "... many were already on the stairs chanting for the martyrs in Dara” بالروح بالدم نفديك يا شهيد” “We would sacrifice our souls and blood for the martyrs”". Lottery win. --CE (talk) 13:26, 11 April 2013 (UTC)


 * Where I looked into it (took a while to re-locate): JREF forum post, Oct. 29 As a piece of research, eh - it's a start. As a slam to the jackasses I was arguing with, it was grand. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:14, 12 April 2013 (UTC)


 * Indeed, great cinema! And very useful as an overview. --CE (talk) 13:37, 12 April 2013 (UTC)

Daraa is directly at the Jordanian border, closer than I was aware of. Maybe 4 kilometers. The toll gate is directly at the outer city border. The Omari mosque is in the SW part closest to the border, here on wikimapia, here on Google Maps. So "infiltrators" wouldn't have had a long way. --CE (talk) 16:16, 12 April 2013 (UTC)


 * Hey Folks, nice new wikimapia feature! There's a new switch in the top right corner under the search field with which one can change the satellite/map material. Has Yahoo, Bing and some other options in addition to Google. The Bing view doesn't have the closest range in Daraa but quite nice additional info from the material at the not-so-ultra-close level. --CE (talk) 20:22, 12 April 2013 (UTC)

Omari Mosque destroyed
As if to give this a current connection, Al-Arabiya reports (uploaded April 14, 2013) that the minaret of Omari Mosque has been blown-up and destroyed, allegedly by government forces. --CE (talk) 01:52, 16 April 2013 (UTC)

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 * Minaret shape roughly matches. I have a hard time figuring out the point of view, though. The minaret - as the mentioned Bing footage shows better than the Google footage - is in the NW corner of the mosque. The only spot I can think of from where this is filmed is from the next corner of the street leading north from the minaret - but it seems the whole infrastructure on the video is far too small to match the map. Thoughts? --CE (talk) 02:09, 16 April 2013 (UTC)
 * Hey, I had a minute. Looks like a site match, filmed from a block up the north street, at the little building at the intersection, centered here on Wikimapia. District: حارة المسالمة منطقة السيبة (مدينة درعا "Peaceful lane Saybah area." The one view looks dark, pre-dawn, and the minaret is smoking (different incident? weird exposure?) The one with clear sunlight where it comes down is afternoon, sun just south of west (back on summer time, GMT +3) = anywhere between 4:10 and 5:15 PM. Would "the regime" demolish it? Possibly, if snipers kept using it, for example. It wasn't a surprise, apparently,as they sat there filming that way, as if expecting something to fall. Would they do it just to blame the regime? Sure, if it had been somehow rendered useless as a sniper's perch. Oh, but they're good Muslims... yeah, who seem to think God buys the same propaganda explanations they sell wholesale to their Western sponsors. Is that tank in the street the rebel is filming? --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:28, 16 April 2013 (UTC)


 * Thanks, yes, this is the spot I meant as a candidate as well. On second view the scale of buildings also seem to match, had the impression from the sky that the buildings are higher/more densely packed. Well, as symbol of the "revolution" I could image a motive for some thuggish elements of the "regime" to get rid of it, but in general the mindset to blow up mosques exists on the other side as we know. Here is a report from pro-government Al-Ihkbariya TV. Context makes it clear they blame the same guys who blew up the other mosques, and somewhere in the middle is some interesting footage where you can see the lone tank at the mosque through an alley and then the camera turns around to a bunch of goons who seem to leave the area after a successful operation. And here is the scene filmed from the spot north in a 1:17 min uncut version. Title blames gov. Nobody on the streets, the lone tank (abandoned?) in front of the mosque, and the filmer and his buddies loudly allahuakbaring across the street in the end. Would they do that vis-a-vis a manned tank in government controlled territory? Here a report from Al Jazeera Arabic - regime-blaming I presume, and they have the "blind Sheikh" in the studio, the same day it supposedly happened (April 13). Additional footage from directly at the minaret - allahuakbaring.
 * Anyway, this apparently was the first mosque in the levant, 8th century. Pure insanity. :o( --CE (talk) 12:13, 16 April 2013 (UTC)


 * The flash inside its windows at 5:04 in the embedded video is interesting. The one tank hit wouldn't do it. I'm not expert enough to call this, but someone could. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:32, 16 April 2013 (UTC)


 * Here's a report:


 * "This regime of unrestrained barbarism targeted with tanks the minaret of the Omari mosque, a place full of symbols of civilisation and spirituality and humanity," said the opposition Syrian National Council. 
 * "The minaret of this mosque, which was build by Caliph Omar bin al-Khattab, is the first in the whole of the Levant, and has been destroyed by the soldiers of the tyrant," it added, referring to President Assad.
 * The Council noted the mosque had played a pivotal role in the beginning of the uprising against Assad, which sprung in large part from the city of Daraa after the arrest and torture of two boys. 
 * "It was the first place that embraced the Syrian revolution during its infancy, the first wave of demonstrations of pride and dignity came out through its doors," said the Council. 
 * "The first martyrs were shot by snipers in its minaret, fell on its walls and the first wounded were treated on its floors." 
 * (might have inserted one of those lines, but it could be true ... maybe it was grossly defiled long before being false-flagged down) --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:32, 16 April 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah those lines are parroted all over the place, "SNC said to Reuters". On liveleak a cut-together of some perspectives results in this poll. --CE (talk) 22:48, 16 April 2013 (UTC)


 * Syria: Minaret Of Famous Mosque Destroyed -- Petri Krohn (talk) 00:23, 25 April 2013 (UTC)

Let's call it Deraa
With a whole bunch of spellings around, I noticed that most "reputable" sources like BBC, Guardian, Al Jazeera etc spell it "Deraa". Which has the advantage of no "know-it-all" apostrophe like in "Dara'a" and a lesser chance of getting confused with Daraya due to the relative sparsity of a's. ;o) So I propose we stick with that. --CE (talk) 15:16, 18 April 2013 (UTC)
 * That's a good idea, for the same reasons you specify. I'll stick with that. Know it all, lol. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:22, 18 April 2013 (UTC)

March 11
Syria's security forces seize arms smuggled from Iraq – Reuters, via The Guardian, 11 March 2011
 * Syria has revealed that its security forces have seized a large shipment of weapons, explosives and night-vision goggles in a truck coming from Iraq.
 * The official news agency Sana said the shipment, intercepted at the Tanaf border crossing on Monday, was intended "for use in actions that affect Syria's internal security and spread unrest and chaos".

March 16
Middle East unrest: Syria arrests Damascus protesters, BBC, Lina Sinjab in Damascus
 * around 150 people demonstrated in Damascus, 35 arrested and mostly released again, following "hundreds" of protesters the day before
 * Funny: The SOHR at this point is an organization on the ground advocating political prisoners rights: "After a long wait and rumours of an impending release of prisoners of conscience in Syria, our hopes have vanished," said a statement from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The organisation - which groups together the families of 21 jailed human rights activists - had said it planned to demonstrate in front of the ministry on Wednesday.

March 18 (Friday)
Middle East unrest: Three killed at protest in Syria, BBC
 * At least three protesters have been shot dead in the south Syrian city of Deraa as security forces clamped down on a protest rally.
 * Two of the dead people were named by witnesses as Hussam Abdel Wali Ayyash and Akram Jawabreh
 * Activists claim up to five dead, helicopters involved, "hundreds" injured and "snatched by security forces" from hospital and moved to unknown locations.
 * Sana said violence and "acts of sabotage" had broken out at a demonstration in Deraa on Friday, prompting security forces to intervene. It accused "infiltrators" of seeking to "provoke chaos through acts of violence which resulted in damage to private and public property".
 * Arrested children are not mentioned as cause for the protests, just general slogan shouting and Assad bashing

Violence erupts at protests in Syria, Al Jazeera
 * generally contains the same as BBC report about Deraa
 * Has video of two water cannons used against protesters on some main road (from a casual look at the town this spot is a very good candidate for the bridge and the road - filmed from roughly north)
 * quotes SANA more extensively: "Infiltrators took advantage of a gathering of citizens near the Omari Mosque in the city of Deraa on Friday afternoon to provoke chaos through acts of violence which resulted in damage to private and public property," the agency reported. "The infiltrators also set cars and shops on fire, which obliged security forces to intervene in order to protect citizens and property. They were also attacked by the infiltrators before the latter dispersed."
 * protests in Banias, Homs and Damascus (says video, shows Banias, says information can't be verified ... the birth of a mantra? ;o))

March 20
7 Syrian policemen killed in Sunday clashes, report, YaLibnan based on report from Xinhua and NYT
 * Seven policemen killed while trying to drive protesters away, according to xinhua
 * protesters attacked the communication centre, the national hospital, burned the headquarters of the Baath Party and the court house in Dara’a, according to Al Jazeera
 * Interior ministry formed Committee to investigate happenings
 * Omari mosque turned into field hospital, police sprayed tear gas, then opened fire, say witnesses to NYT
 * city is surrounded by police, roads are closed, phone and internet teporarily shut down, according to NYT
 * "As on previous days, the Syrian authorities denied any role in the violence and characterized the protesters and those who shot at them as infiltrators." NYT says SANA warned against “infiltrators who are working in a number of security branches pretending to be high-ranking security personnel and officers and claiming to have strict instructions from the police to use live ammunition and violence to end any suspicious gatherings.”
 * small scale protests in Damascus and in Quneitra

Syria: Seven Police Killed, Buildings Torched in Protests, Israel National News
 * On Friday police opened fire on armed protesters killing four and injuring as many as 100 others. <-- that would be on the 18th, while other sources say the 100 injured occured on the 20th at the funerals:
 * At the funerals of two of those killed opposition leaders handed authorities a list of demands, which included the release of political prisoners. In an uncharacteristic gesture intended to ease tensions the government offered to release the detained students, but seven politice officers were killed, and the Baath Party Headquarters and courthouse were torched, in renewed violence on Sunday. The latest clashes occurred after unconfirmed reports that two more protesters had been killed began to circulate.
 * One minute video report by Euronews
 * claims there were also protests in Banias (on the Mediterranean coast), in Homs and with "large number of arrests" in Damascus

March 23
Syria unrest: 'Protesters killed' at Omari mosque, BBC, Lina Sinjab (allegedly from Deraa but not allowed into city center)
 * six dead protestors at Omari mosque in Old City, say activists (already SOHR among them), shot by security forces
 * four dead says government: a medical team of three (doctor, paramedic, driver) and one security force member. Killed by armed gang. Weapons from inside the mosque were seized
 * that makes total of 12 dead according to BBC count. Six at the mosque, 4 at an earlier protest on March 18 (fire from security forces), one at a funeral on March 20 (sniper) and a 11 year old boy from tear gas inhalation on March 21
 * There were shots at two funerals on the 20th of people killed on the 18th, with the one mentioned killed and "around hundred"(!!) wounded
 * Deraa Governor was sacked by Assad, his name is Faisal Kalthoum
 * 15 children detained for the Graffitis were released
 * Author Lina Sinjab: "As we were leaving, we saw a long convoy of army vehicles and soldiers heading towards the city. A crowd of government supporters was also going towards Deraa, shouting pro-regime slogans. There were hundreds of them in cars and on motorcycles."
 * This is the date I had in mind and looked at a bit. Two sources I found useful here: Human Rights Watch (aka Inhuman Wrongs Whitewash) - (Physicians for Human Rights (aka Inhuman Wrongs Plastic Surgery Brigade, confirms and names ambulance crew killed by someone) --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:14, 12 April 2013 (UTC)

Syrian forces kill at least six in midnight mosque attack, say Deraa residents, Reuters/Guardian
 * killed Doctor ("by sniper") is named as Ali Ghassab al-Mahamid
 * Before the attack, the electricity supply and telephone services to the area were cut off. Cries of "Allahu Akbar (God is the greatest)" erupted across neighbourhoods in Deraat, close to the border with Jordan, when the shooting began. It was not immediately clear whether the protesters had any weapons.
 * Tents erected at Omari mosque. Preacher gave interview to Al-Arabiya, said protest is peaceful, his name is Ahmad Siasneh

Syrian forces shoot protesters, kill six in mosque – Suleiman al-Khalidi / Reuters, March 23, 2011

Despite regime's grip, Syrians rally on – Mona Alami Special for USA TODAY

Syria: Hospital reports 37 bodies after anti-Assad protests (UPDATES) (VIDEO) – Globalpost
 * A picture shows courthouse that was torched a day earlier by angry protesters in the southern town of Daraa, 60 miles south of Damascus, on March 21, 2011 following a demonstration demanding "freedom" and an end to 48 years of emergency laws in Syria under President Bashar al-Assad and his father Hafez. (Louai Beshara /Getty Images)

March 24

 * Deleted Guardian video ("our copyright has expired") "shows bloody scenes on streets of the southern Syrian city of Deraa as Syrian forces appear to open fire on hundreds of demonstrators. At least 15 were shot dead"

March 25 (Friday)

 * Deleted Guardian video ("our copyright has expired") subtitled "Some reports claim up to 20,000 people attended funerals of nine people killed by the military at a mosque in the southern Syrian city of Deraa"
 * Guardian's Brian Whitaker briefs the audience with 20 things you need to know about Syria - last point: 20. Assault in Deraa: Deraa, the centre of the 2011 uprising, is where TE Lawrence ("Lawrence of Arabia") was captured during the first world war while reconnoitring in disguise and, according to his account, was severely beaten and sexually abused by the Turkish governor. The incident affected Lawrence deeply and is said to have awakened his masochistic tendencies which later resulted in him paying military colleagues to beat him.

March 27
Syrian clashes leave at least 12 dead as government delays concessions, Guardian, from Damascus
 * 12 dead in Latakia
 * A government source blamed the deaths on "attacks by armed elements on the families and districts of Latakia", according to the official Sana news agency. But activists accused the security forces of opening fire on protesters in the city, where they say the offices of the ruling Ba'ath party have been torched.
 * On Sunday night, there were reports of gangs of young men, some armed with swords and hunting rifles, roaming through the seaside city and roughly questioning passersby.
 * etc pp, long article on "ten days of unrest"

General

 * Tim Anderson, Op Ed News, May 13: Syria: how the violence began, in Daraa
 * Saudi official Anwar Al-Eshki later confirmed to BBC television that arms had indeed been provided to groups within Syria, and they had stored them in the al-Omari mosque. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:38, 16 May 2013 (UTC)


 * SYRIA: Who is Behind The Protest Movement? Fabricating a Pretext for a US-NATO “Humanitarian Intervention”, Chossudovsky in early Mai about the events so far. Some interesting stuff about Daraa.
 * Who is in the streets? According to Al Jazeera, the protesters are in the streets together with the soldiers, and both the protesters and the soldiers are being shot at by “plain clothes secret police”, by “paid thugs” and government sponsored snipers. The impression conveyed in the report ["Daraa under Siege" - good codeword for further search it seems - CE] is that these casualties are attributed to infighting between the police and the military. But the report also says that the soldiers (in the “thousands”) control all roads in and out of the city, but they are being shot upon by the plain clothed secret police. The purpose of this web of media deceit, namely outright fabrications –where soldiers are being killed by police and  “government snipers”– is to deny the existence of armed terrorist groups. The later are integrated by snipers and “plain clothed terrorists” who are shooting at the police, the Syrian armed forces and local residents.


 * Video, BBC Arabic with English subtitles uploeded April 2012, Interview with "Anwar Al-Eshki", a Saudi Ex-Military and now president of "Center for Strategic studies" in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. He tells how someone from Daraa came to him and asked for weapons, and he says that they stored weapons at the Omari Mosque, and that the preacher there was against using arms. He calls him "the blind sheikh" and it's the same name given above by Reuters, here (in the comment) spelled Ahmad Al-Sayasinah. Also claims to have advised Riad Al-Asaad to go to Turkey and found the FSA there.
 * Mirror with additional details. Link (dead?) to SANA. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 09:27, 13 April 2013 (UTC)
 * Thanks, yeah, link to SANA is unfortunately dead. --CE (talk) 12:40, 16 April 2013 (UTC)


 * Interview with "Sheikh Ahmad Al-Sayasna" (in Jordan) by (Saudi?) newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, March 15, 2012. "I met with Syrian president Bashar al-Assad on 14 April last year, and [during this meeting] he generally listened but did not talk. I told him frankly that “if you want reform then you must prepare an atmosphere of reform, but if you kill people and besiege cities, then this will not bring about safety or security.” I explained what was truly happening on the ground to him, and told him that he was being misinformed about the situation in Deraa and who was responsible for the massacres and scandals that were taking place." Blames violence on Hezbollah, Iranian Revolutionary Guard and - a new one - Iraq's Mahdi army. All Shi'ite evil combined. --CE (talk) 12:40, 16 April 2013 (UTC)


 * Inside Deraa, long "tell-it-all" Al Jazeera feature article, April 19, 2011, "Huge McLeod and a reporter in Syria" ... It was here on March 6 that the spark that lit the Syrian uprising was struck: The arrest, detention and torture of 15 young boys for painting graffiti slogans of the Arab revolution - "As-Shaab / Yoreed / Eskaat el nizam!" "The people / want / to topple the regime!" on a wall, copying what they had seen on television news reports from Cairo and Tunis. [...] the arrested boys were from almost every large family of Deraa: The Baiazids, the Gawabras, the Masalmas and the Zoubis. --CE (talk) 18:42, 16 April 2013 (UTC)


 * Syria: The boys who helped spark a revolution, BBC, April 13, 2013. Short video piece interviews two veiled boys apparently in Deraa. They say they wrote graffiti but apparently were not among the 15 arrested, but from the same school. Wall with graffitis is shown. Two torture victims are named (not written so spelling could be different) and pictures shown. Hamsa Al-Khatib, 15, "brutally beaten, mutilated" and Tamer Al-Shari, 15, "tortured and killed". --CE (talk) 15:12, 18 April 2013 (UTC)

Provocateur Sniper Precedents

 * I compiled some kind of list here:
 * http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Sniper#Unknown_mystery_snipers.3F
 * -- Petri Krohn (talk) 22:00, 11 April 2013 (UTC)
 * Yes you did and I forgot. Good add here. The Bosnia unity conference disrupted by "Serb snipers" needs to be added here and there. No links handy ATM, but you know the story, I presume. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:14, 12 April 2013 (UTC)

HERE!
-- Petri Krohn (talk) 22:03, 19 April 2013 (UTC)
 * Psychological Operations in Guerrilla Warfare
 * See: The '93 WTC attacks: Al Qaeda/CIA Operatives & The F.B.I. @ 17m 15s

Bosnia 1992
(many examples, forthcoming) - The sniper(s) at the pro-unity rally - all the snipers of sniper's row who picked off so many people - including ABC news reporter David Kaplan - UN decided the shot was from within the rebel-held area

Thailand, 2010
Tony Cartalucci, Land Destroyer, has, injected into a speculative article on the Houla massacre, a fascinating analysis of a regime sniper incident from Thailand, 2010. A prominent propaganda image used by the NY-backed Toxin (Thaksin, transliterations vary) Shinawatra in his bid for return to power via western-sponsored "color revolution" was a man with Thaksin's trademark red flag, his head half-removed by the brutal troops nearby. I didn't double-check, but it seems the incident coincided with open fighting between black-clad Shinawatra men and Thai national troops, ignored at the time, to remove the militants and their guns from the picture (but later acknowledged, even by HRW). And apparently the video - distributed widely by the Shinawatra red network - always demonstrated how the anti-government people filming the murder maneuvered the man with the big red flag into place, near the troops and possibly within range of a provocateur sniper as well. Hand signals between activists and a "shadower," the signaling in of the photographer to snap the proof within moments, all suggest just what common sense does. The same shadow forces killed this kid and a Reuters photographer, and were engaged by troops of the saner forces of the state that night. Targeted regimes don't always deliver these convenient atrocities without a hell of a lot of assistance. --Caustic Logic (talk) 07:45, 17 April 2013 (UTC)

Libya 2011
Possible precedent: Libya, Al Baida, Feb. 17, 2011. Two people are shot in a funeral procession, shown on three videos. The crowds scatter for a moment each time as people dive for cover, but then realizing they weren't the one, the rest continue, re-enraged. One shot has a bizarre edit suggesting the rooftop cameraman is next to the rooftop sniper. The edit comes as the body-recovery truck pulls up just shy of the shooting site. As Felix said, a very clinical operation - provocateur work. Incidentally, someone claiming to be one of the cameramen recently gave me his e-mail address (see comments there). I Would not be the slightest surprised if it happened like that in Dara'a and elsewhere as well. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:42, 11 April 2013 (UTC)

The Victims
Considering the Libya and Thailand examples, younger people are usually the chosen targets. In Libya, I think both victims were boys, although that would mean the incident was apparently on the 16th, not the 17th of February. Anywyay, I've reflected a bit on who is chosen by provocateur snipers, and decided these are the possible criteria. The more that are met, the more likely it is that a false flag sniping has occurred. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:59, 22 May 2013 (UTC)
 * 1) The target is young, and shows the most promise cut short, by the regime of course.
 * 2) He might not make good fighter - pudgy, lazy, too young, too old, etc.
 * 3) Killing the young, weak, and harmless, if it's blamed on the regime, makes the regime look worse, more insane, etc.
 * 4) The target is a suspect infiltrator or etc. This we will probably have no clue about, if so.
 * 5) The target is not dressed right for the sniper's tastes, or too much to his taste - in a t-shirt with too perfect a message to not be in photos of a killed protester, etc.