Talk:Attack on Red Crescent convoy in Urm al-Kubra

Reactions
As of now: --Resup (talk) 08:50, 20 September 2016 (UTC)
 * TASS, 20 Sept. 2016. US accusation, "most likely an airstrike, not by (US) coalition" is repeated, pointed out that UN could not confirm information on those killed "as was considered at that time, due to shelling". Apart from skeptical tone, no further comment provided in the article.
 * SANA. No comment on attack seen. Bogdanov visit and further fresh steps of solving crisis discussed
 * Joint press release of Red Cross/Crescent, around twenty civilians and Omar Barakat were killed, nothing about nature or origin of "horrific attack" --CE (talk) 12:18, 20 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Russia, Syria did not deliver strikes on UN aid convoy near Aleppo — ministry, TASS (Eng.)
 * '' "No airstrikes on the UN humanitarian convoy in the southwestern outskirt of Aleppo were carried out by the Russian or Syrian aviation," Konashenkov said. The Russian side did not monitor the movement of the UN truck convoy that came under attack near Aleppo after the humanitarian cargo was delivered to that city, he added.
 * Noted: From other comments made, it appears that Russian MoD finally watched White Helmets (nighttime) video, but not the morning photos; and can't see any munitions on White Helmets video. --Resup (talk) 14:01, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

"Anonymous US officials said"

 * BBC: But US officials, speaking in condition of anonymity, said two Russian SU-24 attack aircraft were in the sky above the convoy at the precise moment it was hit in Urum al-Kubra.
 * But that does not mean what they said is true. OK, there could be Russian planes in the sky; -and anywhere in the sky is ABOVE the convoy; and that could be for a period of time, possibly including strike time, because there was al Nusra attack on Aleppo and quite major fighting further east towards the city; so they might be checking it out. And one cannot say that a plane was directly above at strike time, because that 'moment of time' is like 7:30, +/- 10 minutes to half an hour, maybe; while it takes SU 24, flying at or above speed of sound, some 40 seconds to fly some 14 km to Aleppo front lines. And somebody who knows the strike time for sure, as well as where planes, if any, were at that very time, also knows who did it, without all this horseshit.
 * "There are no craters and the exterior of the vehicles do not have the kind of damage consistent with blasts caused by bombs dropped from the air," a statement from the defence ministry said.
 * Must be reading our page then? --Agreed. --Resup (talk) 00:48, 21 September 2016 (UTC)


 * Russian MoD General-Major Igor Konashenkov video, text, RT (Rus).
 * ''Russian planes did not plan, and did not perform any airstrikes in the area of Urum al-Kubra settlement (Российские самолеты не планировали и не наносили каких-либо ударов в районе населенного пункта Урум-Эль-Кубра). They were not present in that area at all (их в данном районе не было вообще).
 * see also: "Predator" drones?-below.
 * --Resup (talk) 19:42, 21 September 2016 (UTC)

Kerry's "Parallel Universe"

 * LA Times
 * (US SecState John) Kerry responded with anger and incredulity to Russia’s positing of various alternative scenarios having caused the carnage, saying he felt as if “we’re sort of in a parallel universe here.”

They have cited a ground incident, protested "airstrike" and suggested an airstrike by someone else. That's true, and a little confusing. But wtf?
 * Citing theorizing by Russia’s Defense Ministry that “the trucks and the food and the medicine just spontaneously combusted,” (Kerry) demanded: “Anyone here believe that?”

Russia said, as reported, on Tuesday "it believed the convoy was not struck from the air at all but had caught fire because of some incident on the ground." Obviously a violent incident, unspecified, not "spontaneous" magical "poof, it's just gone, who knows?" Does he really think people are stupid enough to accept his characterization? Daily Beast reports
 * The Russians also have claimed the trucks might have been destroyed by spontaneous combustion.
 * However, there is a mounting body of evidence that makes it clear the Syrian regime and, in particular, the Russian military, hold responsibility for the atrocity.

Had to check. John Kerry is not acknowledged as the author - it's Pierre Vaux, parallel universe inhabitant. Poof. The Russians really did claim that. Idiots! We hate them! right? And we're all transported to the parallel universe... --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:24, 23 September 2016 (UTC)

SARC
refers to an attack, not an air strike, blames no one. Neutral tone, relatively, speaking, is a "pro-Assad" position (not with us so against us) - all compromised agencies know to try and blame Syria/Russia from the first words. --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:38, 25 September 2016 (UTC) (Arabic) via Twitter
 * Sept. 20 press release https://www.icrc.org/en/document/syria-attack-humanitarian-convoy-attack-humanity
 * https://m.sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160922/1045586415/syria-convoy-attack-provocation.html
 * "There is no evidence that it was an airstrike of either Russian or Syrian aviation on the humanitarian convoy in Syria," Wael al Malas, the representative of the Syrian branch of the Red Crescent, which escorted the convoy, told Russia's Izvestiya newspaper.
 * "On the contrary, everything points to it being the militants of the terrorist organizations who exploded and set on fire the trucks of the convoy," he added.

FWIW Wael Mallas Arabic search ( وائل ملص ) 2016-09-03 SANA reports "Wael Malas representative of the Russian Cooperation and Development Center supervisor of the children show that he has the participation of children from around Homs..." Photo of Homs Governor and a guy that might might be Mallas with beard, looking at art pieces. Several related stories, little if any mention earlier. Newer mentions are the Russian media interview cited above. This may be used to tarnish his credibility. --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:38, 25 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Sputnik Arabic, 2014 report Dialogue with the social activist Wael Malas residents Hamedia old Homs. --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:20, 25 September 2016 (UTC)

What happened?
(After seeing nighttime video and immediate US accusations): Available evidence consists of videos and White Helmets story. Several destroyed trucks, fires still burning, no craters seen, some holes possibly from shrapnel but not for certain, and not a lot. There is a damaged passenger car clearly seen, but it could be damaged earlier. Content is thrown around but appears largely intact; possibly heating damage on packaging. Many ways to cause what is seen on video, some shelling (mortars/artillery/MLRS), staging, bombing from helicopter, or plane. Place, uncertain but building has distinct appearance and could be located. Time of attack, stated on the video, is 7:30 pm, Sept 19, 2016. --Resup (talk) 08:50, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

(After seeing some daytime photos/videos): clearly a quite substantial strike. Shrapnel damage, and fire damage. 4 twitter photos: photo 3, apparently an explosion at ground level, or possibly inside the cabin; no crater on the ground. Bent metal sheet on top appears to be by explosion outside; but also small part of roof is caved in a bit, making this tricky. Direct hit on top by aerial bomb will almost certainly obliterate the cabin, not slightly bent the roof in. Photo 4: small craters are seen mostly resembling mortar or MLRS, flying, apparently, left to right, but quite clearly not top to bottom. Elsewhere on this post, a collapsed wall. Getting tricky here. Thin wall, with some shrapnel damage (top right), and roof damaged, but like because the wall crashed down under it, not because roof is hit on the top; --but also not excluded that we do not see where it was hit, as it is gone now. --Resup (talk) 10:07, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

If there were planes in the area, that, with very high probability, should be known to Russian and US militaries, so if that's known why to play this hid and seek with some social media photos? Russian strike, in particular, does not seem to be likely as at this stage, they would be still obliged to coordinate with USA--Resup (talk) 10:24, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

Truck location likely negotiated long in advance and known to parties, and likely leaked to rebels. Hitting it intentionally does not seem very plausible. Provocation, knowing where they are too, is a possibility. --Resup (talk) 10:24, 20 September 2016 (UTC)


 * Rebels administered this whole area, had them stop and off-load here. The location would be known to that Russian drone and any Russians who mattered, and also to every terrorist with a mortar or rocket launcher in the area. But the terrorists and their supporters were clear it was a jet/helicopter/both, from Russia or Syria or both/whatever/not us. Uh-huh. Hell, they could have just raided the place, robbed and executed the aid workers, torched the trucks, and lobbed a few shells on it afterwards. Hypothetically. (BTW, any survivors? None that didn't pass through White Helmets and al-Nusra hands first.) --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:18, 20 September 2016 (UTC)


 * Visuals, First thoughts: I agree it's hard to make out any kind of craters Maybe just the trucks were all hit? The roadway seems weirdly smooth, like it was all re-graded overnight. (??) No barrel bomb fragments seen yet, nothing massively blown up as if by one, just light shrapnel like from a rocket all over, and everything burned. Firing directions could maybe be discerned. The location seems set - could double check more but most photos seem to be at the eastern location outside Urn al-Kubra. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:18, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

Another activist video with different claims, and photos appeared now giving 'craters' and 'bomb fragments' (main page). As Konashenkov put it, 'geometrically increasing pile-up' of contradictory and increasingly crappy accusations, 'a well known method of warfare, with obvious goals', and drowning remains of reasoning. Kerry accused ( BBC video) Russia in inconsistent response, but Russia was responding to this contradictory pile up in public statements, and informed US military on flight control data through military channels (Konashenkov said it was provided to a US colonel, name well known to USA). --Resup (talk) 22:34, 21 September 2016 (UTC)

Russians apparently told Kerry that their attack was on Khan Tuman, about 10 km SE from Urm al-Kubra, according to Kerry video on BBC (above). --Resup (talk) 22:55, 21 September 2016 (UTC)

Was exact overnight location agreed?
Confusing info on whether exact route and truck location at that time was agreed in advance. Western sources say aid was "agreed" (overall) and "destination known" (but was the exact route too?). Russian MoD says they did not monitor the convoy after 13:40 and as as far as they are concerned only rebels knew where exactly it is. Assuming it is accurate, it will be difficult for them to find it at this time on purpose to "attack" it, losing track at 13:40. It is on their video, but they might be not keenly interested to actively monitor, once it is out of their responsibility, and in any case did not know what happened next. 7:30 pm is after sunset and before moon rise (20:34), so difficult to spot by eye (especially so when getting closer to 8 pm). Trucks were standing there since 2 pm and engines were off, cold; so won't be seen in infrared either. But planes or helicopters will be excellently seen, infrared and radar, to blame and shame. With all that, if exact overnight location was not agreed, that would point to rebel attack as most likely. --Resup (talk) 17:58, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

Background
Happened right after embarrassing 'error' by coalition in Deir ez Zor, furious accusations at the UN, and followed by lapse of ceasefire at 7 p.m. Broader background, recently concluded Kerry -Lavrov talks (said to be opposed by parts of US government, so many hours break was required by Kerry to negotiate with Washington), and followed by ceasefire near collapse on the ground. Russia accusing USA of not separating moderate and radical opposition and not reciprocating steps to demilitarize agreed areas, etc. Further, approaching UN session, likely last for this US administration, and elections in USA. With ceasefire collapsing, blame games to start. --Resup (talk) 08:50, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

Interesting suggestion from Gareth Porter that the Deir ez Zor attack was related to Pentagon vs State Department infighting. Russia responding to that attack with a harsh signal to both. - see Pentagon Sank Ceasefire
 * Charles, good to hear from you again. It's unclear what Porter thinks of this attack, but otherwise an excellent analysis. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:22, 25 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Well he did say Attacking the aid convoy by some means was a brutal way of signalling a response to such messages. Unfortunately, the brunt of the response was borne by aid workers and civilians. I interpret that as saying the convoy attack was a deliberate signal. This is sort of consistent with Lavrov laboring the point the Deir ez-Zour attack took 1 hour and Kerry then laboring the point the convoy attack took 2 hours --Charles Wood (talk) 02:55, 26 September 2016 (UTC)


 * Russia/Syria responded in a way, but with strikes, advances on Aleppo front lines. And making some fake rumors too. Attacking Red Crescent convoy will be counter-productive; Assad in a recent interview made a quite sensible point that this will play into the hands of terrorists, giving them more support from the population. Various US departments can use this in their campaigns, but otherwise no strong message for them here.--Resup (talk)16:07, 25 September 2016 (UTC)

Rebel motives?
The attack has all the hallmarks of a Nusra / StateDept false flag attack. There in no proof that any airplanes were involved. This could as well have been a Hell Cannon or GRADs. The rebel have every motive to attack the convoy. Why should "Syrian Christians" have aid, when they have just refused the UN aid convoys to enter east Aleppo? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:50, 20 September 2016 (UTC)
 * 1) The aid sent by the Syrian government via Red Crescent was meant for government supporters in besieged areas and minorites. (The White Helmets guy on video says "Syrian Chrisians".)
 * 2) The convoy entered rebel held areas during the ceasefire. It was attacked half an hour after the ceasefire ended and the Syrian and Russian air forces resumed airstrikes.
 * 3) Rebels and their civilian supporters have blocked UN aid from reaching east Aleppo.
 * 4) * The ceasefire agreement comes with strings attached. If no aid is delivered, there can be no ceasefire. If there is no ceasefire, there is no need to separate al-Nusra from the "moderate" rebels.
 * 5) Rebels have said they will end cooperation with UN aid agencies because the UN "supports the regime".
 * 6) During the ceasefire the rebels merged their command structures. All may now be commanded by ex-Nusra.
 * 7) The White Helmets, who were first seen on the site after the attack, could se the SARC as a competitor operating on their "turf".


 * Is it acceptable to strike out someone else's text? But the Christians thing is a red herring. I heard it too, phoenetically it seemed clear. But it's at least a bit strane to say, and being a "center" of them, and Christian being not too far off from Crescent in sound, I'm pretty sure he's describing this like others do: the local center of the Syrian (Arab Red) Crescent. Other points: very interesting. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:03, 21 September 2016 (UTC)

Transit aspect
Rebel groups typically operate similar to gangs, having control on 'their' territory and receiving fees or other perks for transit. If there is a disagreement on any of that, 'something bad may happen'. In this case, a shipment coming from an enemy, to aid a Christian group, and arranged by enemies (crusaders/kafirs/takfirs/etc). Disagreements over participation in the relief deal, or relief distribution, may be additional motivating factors. --Resup (talk) 12:36, 20 September 2016 (UTC)
 * As noted, Christian aspect seems baseless. Otherwise, good point in line with some of Petri's above. Broadly, the problems that this obvious alleged airstrike happened in an area swarming with terrorist armed groups. That opens a lot of possibilities some people want to ignore. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:03, 21 September 2016 (UTC)

Survivors?
Did anyone from the convoy survive? Has anyone returned to Aleppo? Did they tell what happened? Was this information made public? There were 30 trucks in the convoy meaning 30 drivers. Ten or twelve of these were "burned to death". This means a 50 to 60% survival rate. Eight SARC crescent personnel - most likely wearing the distinctive red outfits - were killed. If they had the same survival rate, then another twelve should be alive. Or did all of the SACR people die?

The activist are astonishingly certain that the head of the Red Crescent in Aleppo, Omar Barakat was among those killed. It is as if someone had seen him die, without being affected by the "blast" himself. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 17:12, 20 September 2016 (UTC)
 * BBC has this detail: The head of the Syrian Arab Red Crescent's office in Urum was killed, dying of his injuries as he waited hours to be evacuated. --Resup (talk) 20:44, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

Indeed, why don't we see any bodies and/or White Helmets desperately trying to save them? --Resup (talk) 18:16, 20 September 2016 (UTC)


 * The number of victims has now been upgraded, so that no survivors are to be expected: "19 civilians and 12 aid workers". See: FSA statement on Umr al-Kubra attack. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 21:21, 21 September 2016 (UTC)


 * This is definitely weird. I can't relocate where I saw 18 wounded, but this compared to that suggests they missed one, and he and all of them died. What happened to non-wounded survivors? Who got back to safety and talked about it? Survivors? Haven't seen anything yet, except this case of someone ostensibly in the SARC speaking anonymously for them.
 * Members of the Syrian Red Crescent, who had travelled from regime-held west Aleppo to make the delivery were too scared to share what they had seen, fearing punishment from Syrian officials. “They want to kill humanity, but humanity will not die,” said one of Barakat’s colleagues, insisting his name was not used. (Guardian)
 * That suggests they're back in a government-controlled area. Reports cite witnesses, but they're always from the White Helmets and affiliates. Or one "relief worker" (unclear affiliation) is said to speak to BBC Newsnight, but I can't find it. He sounds less afraid. The Daily Beast cites him so:
 * “What happened was—almost two hours before the bombing we heard and saw a drone, as soon as the regime announced the end of the ceasefire. I had concerns that it would start bombing, because it flew over us for a long time. After two hours the helicopter came and dropped the first barrel bomb. After half a minute it dropped two barrel bombs together, afterwards there were six air strikes by the military jets. Then the jets with guns launched an attack. Afterwards the helicopters came back dropping barrel bombs, and then the jet with guns came back and started firing.”
 * So that guy must have been there, right? --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:07, 23 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Don't see why, he is just telling same story as White Helmets (and not because it happened that way). If thermobarics were used, as a video seems to indicate, anybody in the affected area (large, judged by video) will die; having no survivors will not be surprising. Note that no bodies are shown.  --Resup (talk) 14:27, 23 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Sorry, that was sarcasm. His account is extremely non-realistic. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:31, 25 September 2016 (UTC)


 * ‘Why did they wait to kill us?': How the attack on the aid convoy near Aleppo unfolded By Louisa Loveluck and Thomas Gibbons-Neff, The Washington Post, September 24
 * According to a handwritten ledger kept by the Red Crescent, the youngest victim of Monday’s attack was 16-year-old Taqi Hashim. Five of the most grievously injured, including a 14-year-old, are from one family, the Najeebs.
 * Actual SARC-written ledger? They were taking notes on the killed in one of their pads afterwards and rebels have it? Or did rebels take a pad and write the names of those they killed. and show it to reporters? Or are reporters actually talking to SARC people? (I doubt it). But here we hear about more than 4 injured that apparently didn't die. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:31, 25 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Taqi Hashim in Arabic should be:تقي هاشم - however, it seems no one even in Arabic is talking about him. Twitter search brings up a user of that name, young but from Iraq, who was posting regularly to Sept. 12 and hasn't since. No one mentioning the name. [V Google News search] - nothing relevant. Using their translit only brings up the same WaPo piece. Swapping k for q or ee for i (all 4 combos) brings up nothing else I see. Hm. --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:49, 25 September 2016 (UTC)

The quote isn't from one of these, who still have no direct voice. It's from the English-speakin WH in a blue shirt. Ammar al-Selmo, who "was making tea in a building across the street" and stepped out on the blacony when the attack happened.
 * “Tell me what was going through the minds of those pilots?” Selmo asked. “When they bombed an aid convoy, they must have known an ambulance would follow. Why did they wait to kill us? Why did they play this like a video game where you shoot everything that moves.” --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:31, 25 September 2016 (UTC)

Truck drivers returned
The information has been out there for almost a week, but no one noticed. On the video the one truck seen is empty. Where did these trucks unload? None of these trucks were seen on the footage from the attack site. 17 trucks returning out of 31 means 14 are missing. I do not think there are more than that seen at the attack site. At least three of the trucks seen were not destroyed, except for damage to tires, and could also have returned. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 17:53, 26 September 2016 (UTC)
 * OCHA Syria ‏@OCHA_Syria on Twitter, September 21, 2016
 * ''After being stranded in Big #Orem for 2 days, 18 drivers & 17 trucks are back home to receive medical care in #Aleppo w/ @UN @SYRedCrescent

"Predator" drone?
WTNxO8YZaTc
 * (See news on the main page, RT (Eng)., Sept., 2016). Usage is fire correction/observation, or strikes. Armaments used, according to wiki, is one of those options: 2 × AGM-114 Hellfire (MQ-1B); 4 × AIM-92 Stinger (MQ-1B);6 × AGM-176 Griffin air-to-surface missile (or combinations). One Griffin is enough for one truck. If trucks stand in one column, it can take out cabin of one and set fire to another; if in 2 columns, that may double. But it still seems under-powered in realistic situation to do the job reported. (FWIW, we do not see that many destroyed  trucks on photos, too)


 * ''The US-led coalition air forces did not carry out any missions over the Aleppo area where the UN aid convoy was hit, Adrian Rankine-Galloway, a Pentagon spokesman, told RIA Novosti.
 * There is Aljazeera 2 part series looking into drone use in Afghanistan. It explains that drones may be assigned to CIA (classified as a civilian agency), and flown by it or military; disclosure and war rules then do not apply. (Claims made by Aljazeera have not been independently verified).
 * --Resup (talk) 18:11, 21 September 2016 (UTC)

Trucks do appear to be in a 2-column on one of the photos, FWIW --Resup (talk) 23:05, 21 September 2016 (UTC)

Metal-Augmented Charge?
PavewayIV on comments on a post at Moon of Alabama that the video of the explosion shown by ABC shows the sparkles of a Metal-Augmented Charge blast (in which the explosive is surrounded by a mesh of fluorinated aluminium. This type of explosive are used in Hellfire AGM-114N missiles which are used on Predator drones, but not in Russian missiles.  He links to an ABC news video in which the sparkles are clearly seen in one frame at about 0.01.  Pmr9 (talk) 23:01, 21 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Interesting. When a bomb, a warhead packed with fluorinated aluminium powder surrounding a small charge, hits its target, the charge disperses the aluminium powder throughout the target building. The cloud then ignites, causing a massive secondary blast that tears throughout any enclosed space., somewhere--Resup (talk) 23:18, 21 September 2016 (UTC)


 * For my part, not having looked at the argument in detail, I'm skeptical. One question is why didn't the Russians notice this drone earlier? I'll come back to it soon. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:19, 22 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Konoshenkov said, in the very first sentence of his comment, that this was revealed publicly because Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications for U.S. President Barack Obama Ben Rhodes in 'categorical' (strong) form  accused Russia,  and further SU 24 accusation was made as a leak. Prior to that, radar control data was kept confidential. Detailed information (in the context, about Russia not making the strike, and possibly something else, not clearly stated) was provided by a Russian representative of the command at the airbase Khmeimim. to a US colonel (name not provided, said to be well-known to USA),  over the phone in the evening of Sept. 19. Also noted, commenter on moon of alabama, discussed above, made a point that late sparkling outer halo seen on one of videos is characteristic of hellfire missile (and possibly some other NATO munitions), but not Russian ones, which may spark but in a different way. This type of munition leave no/just one small crater and tend to cause fires. Shrapnel marks need separate explanation but other munitions could be used as well.  Don't know who is commenter but appears to be Western ex-military type; what he says makes sense. Watching some drone strikes, some instances resemble video above, and some don't. --Resup (talk) 09:03, 22 September 2016 (UTC)
 * PavewayIV says he is ex-US military. He has an account here, but is not very talkative. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 17:12, 22 September 2016 (UTC)
 * PavewayIV contributed extensively to the WhoGhouta blog a couple of years ago and his expertise helped to clear up several key questions. I would give considerable weight to his opinions on ordnance-related matters Pmr9 (talk) 19:22, 22 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Okay, I was wondering if the Russians had decided truth was a losing claim and they had to battle American allegations with their own (would not work if they tried, and I hope they don't). the details are compelling (speed and altitude given), there's even a graphic of the track (a bit cryptic), and the reason for delayed mention to the public is plausible. So I can see it as possibly valid, a wild claim but in line with wild stuff the US is doing lately with my tax $$. But still I'm going to stay a bit skeptical for good measure. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:08, 22 September 2016 (UTC)

Video?
We don't know whether this video is from the right place and time (though Western MSM and pro Western social media thought that it is). The video is most consistent with a drone use (not very fast, not high, stays put in a closed area). We also do not know for sure ourselves that late sparkling halo is exclusively hellfire or similar NATO munitions, but the case for this has been made elsewhere, discussed above. --Resup (talk) 09:53, 22 September 2016 (UTC)
 * My MoA post was suggesting that it looked more like a MAC Hellfire (to me) than known/widely used Russian munitions. Russians have thermobarics that have a similar (yet distinct by my reckonning) effect but they are not even know to be used in Syria. So between those two and the presence (Russian MoD report) of a Predator, I would go with a Predator vs. something the Russians dropped from their Su-24M2. More below - there's also the possibility of a Hell Cannon as suggested by user Brunswick on the SST blog - I had not considered this or rebel motivation at the time in my Hellfire post. --PavewayIV (talk) 08:24, 27 September 2016 (UTC)

Videos: facebook, ABC news (more on main page (nighttime videos)). ABC news video shows in the beginning metallic based thermobaric, as discussed and linked above. On facebook, sparks are blurred. We also see 6 (apparently) munitions, going down, after the big blast (cluster munition? 6 griffins? why are they lightened up, as if to see them better? flares, not munitions?). Then we see somehow 7 of those things falling down; and a second thermobaric blast (if this is not fiddled video and shows right place at all). Was not looking into this as was not sure it is the same place, but mass and social media yell that it is. There is a sound of a plane or drone, but may be at some distance. If this is a single drone, Reaper, not Predator? Falling down things, going somewhere to the right, look like bombs, and not very smart ones, apart from being alight to show themselves ... A Reaper has enough to do it, but why? For the show? --Resup (talk) 23:49, 21 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Illuminating bomb is sensible to use here as no sunlight, moonlight, and cold truck. Could not find aerial bomb info or video, but here is a mortar version of illuminating munition. One of photos, nighttime, appears similar to what's on video. Possibly called flare, of a particular sort. In Russian, called осветительные (светящие) авиационные бомбы, illuminating (lighting) aerial bombs, and they are known since WW2 --Resup (talk) 09:03, 22 September 2016 (UTC)


 * Rare to see illumination rounds used in modern aerial attacks, Resup. And not sure if the discussion is the bright, continuously-lit objects falling nearly vertically. If it is, those are probably anti-SAM IR flares. They would be dropped by either a fighter-bomber or a drone when making a low-altitude (below 10,000ft) attack run. They are routinely fired in groups immediately after a bomb release as the aircraft is turning out - standard procedure. They usually don't make it to the ground, so it's unusual to see them here. Very low pass? I'm also trying to confirm Predators have that capability. Another possibility: antiaircraft guns use tracer rounds which (depending on viewing angle) can appear to be falling nearly vertically late in their flight path. That seems less likely to me based on appearance. It would have been more apparent if we saw them hitting the ground. A typical IR flare is about the size of a shotgun shell and gets lighter as it burns. A 23mm anti-aircraft round is several hundred grams of lead. --PavewayIV (talk) 08:24, 27 September 2016 (UTC)


 * There is also one vid where it almost appears like a laser 'rays' flashing from the sky. I have heard that modern digital cameras can pick up the targeting laser of an aircraft/drone, so there's that (weak) possibility. Nothing to back that up, though. These were second-hand reports from guys in Iran working near U.S. stuff.

Actually, hellfire claim is not easy to youtube-verify, in daylight it may look as a bright flash at one point and black smoke at another. In night vision, it may look as a flash with no sparkling, and they do not come visible on military on board videos. So this is an effect to be seen at night, with a good enough camera, and few people were 'lucky' to be in the right place at the right time to film this. Needs to be AGM-114N variant, and this is a nighttime effect, according to above mentioned comment. --Resup (talk) 10:41, 22 September 2016 (UTC)


 * Agree, Resup. This observation is mine based on videos. I have never been unfortunate enough to be in combat or see this up close in person. I wish there were more mil types out there that could either verify or discount this based on their direct experience (Iraq, Afghanistan). It's impossible to see the fireworks effect during daytime and not picked up by most mil FLIR cams day or night - the flash overpowers the imager and they typically don't have very fine resolution. As noted above, my observation was directed more at the comparison of Predator/MAC Hellfire vs. Su-24/Common Russian munitions.


 * I found one photo online that shows a similar sparkling effect. This is from Yemen and may have been some huge MOAB-fucking thermobaric bomb. (I was not a nuke.) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 21:22, 22 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Those are some "neutrons" --Caustic Logic (talk) 02:52, 25 September 2016 (UTC)
 * (not)--Resup (talk) 10:20, 25 September 2016 (UTC)


 * That particular explosion and the erratic sparkling of metal particles or whatever they are has all the mil types baffled. I would guess some kind of enhanced blast / metal augmented charge munition, but the bomb itself is obviously huge and the sparkles distinct from the fireworks effect that I claim looks like a MAC Hellfire. Interesting that Russia has their own version of a MOAB-f@#king-sized theromobaric/MAC bomb as seen in this MOABski@1:43 mark vid. --PavewayIV (talk) 08:24, 27 September 2016 (UTC)

Questions

 * I have a couple of questions. One, I think Paveway is mixed up on video blurring. Took a bit to figure it was the first of two videos on the Facebook page, around 1:05, that needs compared. When I did that, I found the FB version is clearer than the ABC one (at least comparing the copies I downloaded with the same setting but w/different programs (sry), downvids.net and clipconverter.cc). This should be our source for sparkle images, unless there's something even better. --Caustic Logic (talk) 02:52, 25 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Or rather, Resup above is mixed-up and PavewayIV ... not sure which BBC video he meant that was blurrier, but the one I checked didn't even have the same scene included. You have to make sure you're comparing the same scene to say which handles it better. --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:01, 25 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Lost exact track of this line now but BBC video here fits the description, a fragment from one in the collection of videos on main page. --Resup (talk) 13:55, 25 September 2016 (UTC)


 * Sorry for the confusion on that one. Later on I realized there were a few different head-chopper vids of the event. On one, there is an initial shakey-cam, blurred large explosion with some obvious embers flying around. Many news outlets had chosen to use that particular scene for some reason - at one time, the online BBC version had that one only. They edited the story/video since then. On the longer original video, there is a second large explosion at about the 1:00 mark where the camera is held steady(er) and is focused enough to see the residual sparks. That's the one that ABC had used at the very beginning of their report, and the one I think is pictured above. The clearest version of that particular explosion is found on the YouTube or Twitter versions supplied by whatever arabic-language news site originally posted it. SOTT.net grabbed the relevant frame from the ABC video.
 * Next: I'm having a hard time trusting PavewayIV's assessment on the size of these sparkles. As I gather, he says Russian versions can have smaller or bigger flakes, but this middle size points to the AGM-114N and to a Predator. But that seems pretty subjective or hard to call with certainty. Or did I miss something? (quite possible, not my best few days.) --Caustic Logic (talk) 02:52, 25 September 2016 (UTC)

OK, he says
 * sry, it's a size/glow duration combo:
 * The Russians have thermobaric bombs as well, but they are of a different design and the blast usually looks different – non-existent sparkles because of a micronized metal powder, or long-duration sparkles on very large charges for whatever reason.

So he'd say the fact that they're seen puts them as larger than the micronized kind, and the short duration is the other kind's mismatch. Suggested: the Russians have no other kind like this. That could be true, but seems very hard to prove and make this into a leading smoking gun. --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:01, 25 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Yes - it's subjective at this point. I have seen videos of a MAC Hellfire at night over the years, but I can't locate any decent videos for illustration now. Most of the Hellfire strike videos available via a search are from aircraft/drone IR cams where it can't be seen. In some videos with this effect, the type of munition isn't identified, so I can't offer it as proof of what an AGM-114N explosion looks like. The military isn't keen on providing this kind of detail to the public. So for now, my claim only carries the weight of 'Paveway sez:' and hardly stands up to any kind of impartial scrutiny. If I do find something, I'll post it here. --PavewayIV (talk) 08:24, 27 September 2016 (UTC)
 * So it remains potentially important but sort of iffy, or hard to prove. But sometimes good clues emerge later. If you're hanging around, I'm fairly confident "we" will spot them, too. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:31, 27 September 2016 (UTC)


 * On these videos, very bright flash, sometime later dimmer, outer layer sparkling halo, almost spherical shape, of secondary burn nature. In Russian blasts, it may sparkle irregularly inside bright flash, and sparking may fly off here and there in irregular manner, but no this late nice outer halo. In Russian design, essentially it burns in one step, here like in two steps, flash -outer sparkling halo. An interesting theory, and this argument is made externally already. We cannot verify this as we do not know who has what; and cannot add much to what's said already; this is not our argument. If he posts it here, can ask him some questions. There seem to be few videos like this at all, Petri posted link to one other. There are daytime or on-board recording videos of hellfires which do not look like here (apparently too much light to see dim effect or too low resolution or a different hellfire warhead). So at least what's seen here is an unusual (for youtube warriors) effect--basically visually good firework, as opposed to visually bad firework, same nature --Resup (talk) 08:03, 25 September 2016 (UTC)
 * The diffuse glow / halo are finely disbursed metal particles. Their interaction with the supersonic shock front is used for blast shaping, essentially enlongating an unconstrained blast pressure spike if a millisecond or two and hundreds of psi into a long-duration blast wave of hundreds of milliseconds and tens of psi. That's the part that makes it thermobaric. You can have metal-augmented charges that have absolutely no thermobaric or blast-shaping effects. They have some other evil physical properties better suited to, oh... say shredding the limbs of Palestinian children. The tungsten MAC of Israeli DIME munitions used for that effect.--PavewayIV (talk) 08:24, 27 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Also, if two SU 24 attack, they drop something and gone. Here, as Aleppo 24 video presents, thermobaric, turn on lights to see, turn lights again to see (illuminating munitions), another thermobaric, suggesting an attack from something not very fast, drone or perhaps chopper. No point for SU 24 pilot to deploy illuminating munition, he can't freeze a plane to take a good look/assessment. He will just drop his thing and report back that target was destroyed in a loud military fashion --Resup (talk) 08:29, 25 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Yes, the flares we see drop in fives or so ... I'm inclined to agree with your assessment. These parts of the attack seem more like a drone. Said to be there about 30 minutes. There could be a jet part as well, or not. --Caustic Logic (talk) 16:09, 25 September 2016 (UTC)

I had made a remark about user Brunswick on SST suggesting this looked like a Hell Cannon propane-tank home-brew munition, and provided a link to this vid of an explosion. He comments
 * Check out the "sparkle effect" and the large fireball, probably caused by clumping and a diesel rich amatol mix.

So does that look anything like the convoy bombing vid explosion? Slightly different, but close enough that I wouldn't insist on my Hellfire hypothesis.

BTW, all the head-choppers use prilled ammonium nitrate (AN) fertilizer - little white balls - readily available in Turkey/Syria as the basis for their propane tank bombs. AMATOL is a mixture of TNT and AN. I think TNT is kind of hard to find. There's an alternative, easier mixture consisting of prilled AN and fuel oil (ANFO). If they have any available, they will add crudely-ground aluminum powder as a kind of head-chopper MAC. That's difficult to obtain in quantity. So they use ground charcoal as an alternative in their ANFO to make it blow up better. The addition of aluminum powder or charcoal can produce the bright sparks flying away from the explosion epicenter as seen in the video. They are very prominent at night.

So why the chemistry lesson? Because I think the convoy attack explosion looks like a MAC Hellfire vs. something Russian. But all other things considered (shakey cam, somewhat blurry, bad camera color balance, etc.), I would be less inclined to say it looks like a Hellfire vs. a Hell Cannon AN-type explosive with extra goodies in it. There are subtle differences, but close enough that it's not worth arguing. I bring this up because the proposition I'm making is that it still doesn't look like anything Russian, but it does look like either a Hellfire or Hell Cannon.

The Hell Cannon argument needs to be considered along with rebel motivation. I'm inclined to think the easiest possible explanation for the attack isn't a false flag, but some rebel gang warfare over who gets to steal the infidel aid first. The Hell Cannons could have been used to drive of SARC and/or rival gangs away from the booty. Or else a the gang that intended to steal the aid couldn't work out a deal with SARC and left mad, only to return for a little scorched-earth payback (explains why they would burn the trucks as they left, then bombed what was left.) I'm not married to that theory, but this is Mad Max head-chopper turf. There is nothing like a unified rebel force - it's rival gangs of criminals and fanatics. If their gang doesn't get the lice shampoo, then nobody does! --PavewayIV (talk) 08:24, 27 September 2016 (UTC)

Very interesting, thanks! I guess if we are to look into this further, it be worthwhile to split videos into frame-by-frame to see whether HellFire (HF) is distinguishable from HellCannon (HC). Seems to me that in HC it all flies out radially in a wild way as it pleases, and in HF (and here, as initial running assumption) it is more symmetric and organised (synchronized), into spherical layers sort of ways. Whether this (or something else of difference) is catched on videos, unsure, (or how to split-frame well, better than pressing on mouse and getting some random jerks, either). Also any clue on rough size of HF blast? We see some trees in there for scale, and we see them in photographs. Trees are mid-height ones, like 10-15 m, about same length as those trucks; bright flash appears to us to be some 3 tree lengths, and halo, like 6 tree length. So it appears that the initial bright flash is up to 45 m diameter (up to 3 truck lengths) ? Also, on the video we see three blasts (one was burning to begin with, and two more are recorded); but Predators can carry only two HF? (though a Reaper can have more). --Resup (talk) 10:17, 27 September 2016 (UTC)


 * It also depends how the munition falls and what it hits, Resup. Lots of Hellfire vids are of AGM-114M with a tandem HEAT charge hitting armor - that's going to throw a lot of 'sparks' that have nothing to do with the ones produced by a thermobaric MAC 114N. They would be different, but I'm not so sure I could tell from a single vid. They are rarely identified in a video - it's just some soldier taking personal vid of 'a Hellfire strike'. They may have no idea.
 * Hell Cannons hitting a pile of flammable material and shredding it look different then one hitting a building. Then there are so many variants of the home-brew Hell Cannon bombs (compositon, construction, fuzing) that I don't know if you can ever get to the point of determining what a mythical 'standard' one 'should' look like.
 * Thus my comment about the indefinite nature of it and 'close enough'. Certainly something to consider among the other details, but vids are far from any kind of positive identification. I would say the HC vid explosion is different from the convoy attack explosion, but what does that really mean? Both are HC but just a different fill/fuze for the convoy attack one, or are we looking at a 'standard' HC in one video and a MAC Hellfire in the convoy attack? I don't think we can slice it and dice it that far. --PavewayIV (talk) 17:45, 27 September 2016 (UTC)

Also sequencing appears different: on our video, bright flash, sparkles firework than. On HC video sparkles/something fly off, and a bright flash after (?) --Resup (talk) 10:46, 27 September 2016 (UTC)

This just would not go away
thiqa agency Published on Sep 22, 2016, Scenes shown for the first time about the moment of warplanes and helicopters targeted a convoy of the Red Crescent in the town of Brive # Horm_kabry west of Aleppo اورم_الكبرى =Urm al Kubra. Russian-styled fireball for you, russkie, blam-tararam.
 * I think their ability to produce all that crappy social media stuff simply exceeds ability to do something about it There are many dark nights out there, to go and film, whatever. Really they should determine from radar data, and let it stay with that, otherwise, unending soap opera, new episode every day. --Resup (talk) 20:09, 22 September 2016 (UTC)

Russian Drone Video
(space for drone video links and intro)

Times and Locations

 * Syria aid convoy attack: What we know - a little more detailed and balanced than earlier reports, but still clearly slanted.
 * The Russian defence ministry later released surveillance footage filmed by a drone, which it said showed the stationary aid convoy being passed by a pick-up truck towing a heavy mortar.
 * But the Interpreter magazine reported that the video was filmed in the Aleppo suburb of Khan al-Asal, some 6.5km (4 miles) east of Urum al-Kubra.


 * It also pointed to screengrabs of other drone footage reportedly streamed online by Russia on the day of the attack that appears to show the convoy being unloaded. The timestamp says 18:41.

The Interpreter is a super-biased and unreliable source capable of making technically accurate points, when that doesn't interfere with their mission of demonizing the Russian and Syrian governments.

The video location could be right - the convoy would pass through Khan al-Assal. I may try and verify this. It doesn't debunk the Russian claim that I see. I think that is "here's a mortar truck passing the convoy." I don't think they made a claim as to where that was or wasn't.

The time issue - whatever the relevance is - is clearly incorrect. The screen time stamp does appear to say 18:41:38 (or swap 0s for the 8s, 10:41), but it doesn't seem correct either way. This would be 8 minutes after sunset at 6:33 local time, per NOAA solar calculator (to check - move the pin to the right area, select GMT +2 for time zone, DST on. This is clearly not after sunset but early afternoon, with sun shining down on the ground. In checking this, I found my earlier reading (225 deg = 2:25 pm) was a bit wrong. Measuring by the image, it's closer to 222 (range then = 222-225, weighted early) minus 13-15 deg for rotation from true north (did I forget to do this?) = 207-210 deg, which = app. 1:30-1:40 pm, or about the time the Russians say the convoy arrived (a no later than time). --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:19, 22 September 2016 (UTC)


 * Visually:


 * orange lines are on or near shadows from vertical edges - yellow bars show basic height of the trucks - ground measures start from the bottoms of these, visible or not. White lines for the one building, same concept - the right line is corner of building at ground level, over to corner of shadow. This fits on the same orange line. Orange line measured (222, previously got 225, so made that a range). The deviation from north is about 14-15 degrees clockwise. So azimuth is shifted down that many degrees and comes out saying the time Russia specified, or a hair earlier. The sun agrees with Moscow on that point. Cool, we can move forward. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:45, 22 September 2016 (UTC)


 * I checked the Interpreter piece, and it's pretty dumb.
 * If we look at the second video, we can also see that it was taken very close to sundown, though the exact time of either video is hard to determine with shadows alone since they are zoomed out and minute differences of angles matter.

What? You can see short mid-day shadows at a perfectly readable angle of about 206 degrees.
 * This means that these UN vehicles were passed by the truck that was carrying the artillery piece at approximately sunset. They then moved from this position, down to where the Russian drone spotted them a second time at about 6:50 local time (we know this from analyzing the MOD livestream's metadata)

Metadata, or screen-stamped time? Again, this is wrong, maybe by exactly five hours. It says 6:41, not 6:50. However the Khan al-Assal match looks pretty solid. But the time ... :Using Suncalc.net, we can see that the video must have been taken very late in the day, perhaps right around 6-6:30 PM, near sunset,
 * I presume the program is fine and they just misused it. The visible solar angle is app. 198 degrees, or around 1:06 pm. I don't know what they thought they were doing. See green arrow here labeled "shadow" and right next to it an actual shadow from a pole at the real angle. How do you miss that? Trusted expert morons. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:43, 25 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Have some trouble understanding the claim. Here is the video. Their green arrow seems to be more or less correct to indicate shadows direction. But this shows direction in space, and needs to be projected onto plane to get azimuth, result is counterclockwise rotation for the green arrow needed. And red line is not the north, the road goes SWW, so red arrow needs to be rotated about 40 degrees clockwise to show north direction. Giving smth like 1 pm for the time (not very carefully). There are posts shadows which are easier to direct.  --Resup (talk) 13:22, 25 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Their point was simply that it's hours later than it is. The purpose seems to be nil - they note its before sunset, and so that truck with mortar is likely far away by the attack, about an hour later. They can have several more hours, according to the sun. A hidden purpose might be putting Russian surveillance as close to the attack as possible. If so, it fails.
 * So, for what it's worth... The green arrow does point from the truck's upper corner to the corresponding corner in the shadow. But as you noticed, this is almost useless in 3-D space. You need to measure along the ground, like a sundial, to get an azimuth. You could use the pole right there, the people across the road, or any of the trucks, IF you measure from its bottom corner along the ground to the corresponding corner. It should all be the same angle, minus surface irregularities.
 * I didn't notice that their red arrow to north is also way off, so good catch. North is almost straight across the road, with a slight angle in the opposite direction. Their arrow points northeast, maybe about 40 degrees off like you say. So they have the angle between two completely wrong lines setting their time that's a clear mismatch. If it was near sunset, there would be very long shadows. They don't get out much? --Caustic Logic (talk) 05:38, 26 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Update: 1:08 is a bit early. The sidewalk might be irregular. The prevailig solar angle everywhere else is a degree or so more to the west, so a hair later - I'd say 1:10-1:15 is close enough. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:06, 27 September 2016 (UTC)


 * This might be relevant. New York Times report
 * Russian officials have acknowledged that one of their drones tracked the convoy, but said it stopped at 1:40 p.m., after which the trucks’ “movements were only known by the militants who were in control of the area.”


 * Drone footage broadcast by Russian state media, however, shows it continued tracking the convoy for several more hours.

They don't explain how that's so, and follow-up by citing two of their "witnesses" instead, saying it was there all afternoon, off and on at least. Maybe they meant the supposed late surveillance near or after sunset 'proven' by the Interpreter, and echoed by the the BBC. But Russian footage only proves they tracked it to 1:40 or so and then apparently lost track of its (non) movements. FWIW, and the NYT is trying to make something of it. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:06, 27 September 2016 (UTC)