Talk:Forced landing of Ryanair flight in Minsk

Was this a Western false-flag operation?
The reporting in Western media is a total fabrication. Even English language Russian media like RT and Sputnik have fallen for the trap. The Ryanair plane was not hijacked or intercepted by a MiG fighter. All that actually happened was that the air traffic control in Minsk received an anonymous email containing a bomb threat. (It is unknown whether the ATCs in Athens or Vilnius had received similar mail from the Protonmail address.)


 * Content of Ryanair aircraft bomb message revealed - belta.by, May 24, 2021
 * ''“We, soldiers of Hamas, demand that Israel cease fire in the Gaza Strip. We demand that the European Union stop supporting Israel in this war. We know that participants of the Delfi Economic Forum are returning home aboard flight FR4978. A bomb has been planted on the aircraft. If our demands are not met, the bomb will explode over Vilnius on 23 May.”
 * ''Information about the threat was passed on to the Ryanair crew right after the aircraft entered Belarus' airspace and communication was established between a Belarusian air traffic controller and the aircraft. “At that time the crew could use the opportunity and return to Lvov, Kiev, could land in Warsaw, continue the flight to Vilnius and so on. At 12:34 the air traffic controller suggested the Minsk National Airport where all the necessary equipment for landing aircraft in complicated meteorological conditions is available as well as a runway as long as 3,600 meters. The crew asked to clarify sources of the tip about the bomb several times. The crew was told the initial message had been sent to the Minsk National Airport. Prior to that the flight operations director of the Minsk area center had tried to call Ryanair's representative office in Lithuania several times but he failed to reach any representative of the air carrier,” Artyom Sikorsky said.

After the email was received everything happened exactly according to international norms and standards. It was the decision of the Ryanair captain alone to turn back and land in Minsk.


 * Who sent the email?

As I said in my follow-up comment on Moon of Alabama, I suspect this was a Western false-flag operation. All I am actually seeing in this is a gigantic narrative management operation by Americans and their proxies. They have dictated the narrative even before Belarus knew what happened.


 * I am starting to think the "forced landing" was a hoax and the whole incident just another Western provocation. Belarusians claim that the decision to diver to Minsk was made by the Ryan Air captain, after he somehow received information about a bomb threat. Sending a fighter jet to escort a hijacked plane or one with a bomb onboard is standard operating procedure after 9/11.
 * It is Roman Protasevich, who claims he is facing a death penalty in Belarus. Unless he was supposed to be the hit man in the plot to assassinate Lukashenko, the claim is unlikely to be true. Maybe he was ready to spend a few years in prison "for the cause", just like Navalny was.

The three reasons that make me believe the hoax email was sent by Western intelligence services and not by Belarus.


 * 1) Qui bono?
 * 2) Modus operandi
 * 3) Massive narrative management operation

It is premature to congratulate Lukashenko for a well-executed revenge. The costs are likely to far outstrip any benefits that Roman Protasevich might bring. Actually he may soon be flying to Vilnius or Warsaw.

Even Bellingcat noted that the plan follows exactly the script set up by Ukrainian SBU in 2020. But it goes far beyond that. Edward Snowden said the primary reason that made him defect was his repulsion at how the CIA abused its foreign assets. First they used them but at any moment they could be thrown under the bus. There is a long but unproven trail of this happening from Politkovskaya to Litvinenko to Skripal to Navalny. Protasevich's Nazi past makes him a prime candidate for dumping.

Belarus may not even have known that Roman Protasevich was onboard unless his pall Franak Viačorka had not tweeted that "Belarus has seized a plane" and Roman is "facing the death penalty." Vital for narrative management, but may have cost Protasevich his freedom.

-- Petri Krohn (talk) 18:29, 26 May 2021 (UTC)

Adam's thoughts, not having even read-up: An evil plotter would know what's going on and act on interests. The Western end isn't asking for any info, already knowing it's a Belarus thug crime, fake e-mail and all, ups the hostility in response. Minsk's plan probably wouldn't be this. They wouldn't have random airport security people look for a bomb and spot the wanted guy there instead. They'd send people smart enough to see that trap, though it wouldn't be a trap in that scenario. When it is, what do they do? Their job, dumbly - arrest they guy they found instead. They don't need a call from Lukashenko to do that. They'd need a call to not arrest him, and he didn't know to call, maybe wouldn't. To look good now, what, release the guy? No, he has his hand on the banana, stuck inside the cage and can't let go. That's a nice trap, by accident or probably design. Someone plotting like Minsk wasn't had that info and this plan and became "Hamas." Lukashenko could still find something smart to do about this banana trap, but his efforts will be ignored or made to backfire as possible. --Caustic Logic (talk) 16:05, 27 May 2021 (UTC)

Roman's follow-up e-mail?
*Ilya Begun - Telegram, May 27, 2021, allegedly sent by Roman Protasevich to Belarus airport on 13.15, May 23, 2021 --Resup (talk) 09:56, 28 May 2021 (UTC)
 * "Thank you" to Motolko. Unrespected Anton Gadimovich! (гад "gad" -snake, гадить -to shit, Vadimovich- a proper second name) Congratulate you with that you are a rat. They will cage me know, and you will get some money for pressuring Belarus. Thank you, brute (скотина - cow/bull/large domestic animal), from all my soul. Presumed to be "joke" to illustrate how easy is to generate (somewhat plausible)  email (noted, Karnaukhov mentioned such email in a Russian talk show, as if it is real, but stating that it was send to one of curators. This version has it sent to Minsk airport. Exact details unknown, since Roman's phone is indeed captured and info extracted; but assumed unreliable at best; likely a fakentertainment) --Resup (talk) 16:56, 29 May 2021 (UTC)

Fall-out
False flag or not, unsure, obviously info provided by Belarus points to former.

Mixed feelings overall. Opposition has some legit points, like insufficient freedoms, lower economic prosperity of post/neo -Soviet Belarus economy vs the West. On emotional level, the West may be more attractive to a young person then Belarus. But also this is heavily fed and exploited by Western establishment to undermine Lukashenko and to use Belarus as another weapon against Russia, like Ukraine was, and as a strategic platzdarm of Cold War 2 or WW3. Those youngsters do not appreciate that if this old-fashion post -Soviet economy will come down, they will be left with their naked asses in the street, not suddenly become living American or European dream. There are moneys to ruin their present system but no money or intent to make them prosper--as Zinoviev tried but failed to communicate to Yeltsin back in the 1990's.

With this, what is happening now is that Protasevich and his girlfriend gadgets and themselves are being examined by Belarus services to extract information on people who collaborated with them (or sponsored them). The result will be that many people will have problems with the law, not just this pair. Some of those may be bad people, and some may be genuine opposition and not necessarily bad or evil. Already some guy is named who worked in a bank security service and had access to some non-public police databases which he was willing to leak for info on law enforcement, perhaps for cashback. Probably there are many more people not doing something that bad but who will be netted anyway; this is not exactly being handled by a rose pony ballet company. --Resup (talk) 20:46, 26 May 2021 (UTC)

EU Comparisons

 * ''In 1988, Bulgaria’s  population peaked at 8.9 million. Now it stands at 6.9 million. That means that, in little over three decades, the country’s population has fallen by an extraordinary 22.5 per cent. ....In 1988, Bulgaria’s population peaked at 8.9 million. Now it stands at 6.9 million. That means that, in little over three decades, the country’s population has fallen by an extraordinary 22.5 per cent.

borgenproject.org the-deeply-rooted-causes-of-poverty-in-estonia (blocked by filter)
 * Estonia population declined 15% from 1990 to 2020.
 * While it was a part of the USSR, Estonia had an economy that was for the most part equally beneficial to everyone, and had the status of the most prosperous member of the Soviet Union....One in five people live under the poverty line in Estonia. Statistics Estonia reported in 2014 that 21.6 percent of people were considered impoverished and 6.3 percent lived in deep poverty. 8 percent of the poor are employed--

Industrial production decline is likely even greater, economy likely services, agriculture, tourism, as Soviet industrial output would be incompatible with EU.

Way of life, values --likely comprehensively altered. --Resup (talk) 22:01, 26 May 2021 (UTC)

When was Roman Protasevich arrested?
Franak Viačorka's tweet at 12:35 GMT includes a photo of Roman Protasevich standing in an airport bus on its way from the plane to the transit terminal. We know the claim that "Belarus thugs" entered the airplane and dragged him out is untrue. Belorussian sources say Protasevich was only arrested when passengers boarded the plane. This would be an hour to half an hour before the plane took off at 17.48 UTC

By this time the Western media were already publishing fake news about the "hijacking" and Protasevich's arrest. Politicians were already condemning Belarus and Lukashenko. I do not think the Mighty Wurlitzer has ever played this fast.

Here are some stories by original timestamp (UTC): Flightradar24 tweeted about the arrest at 13:31 UTC. President Gitanas Nauseda of Lithuania condemned the incident at 14:04 UTC
 * RFERL 13:26
 * DW.com 13:34
 * The Washington Post] 14:33
 * MTV (Finland) 14:55
 * BBC 15:09

-- Petri Krohn (talk) 09:20, 3 June 2021 (UTC)

Pro-opposition versions

 * Nashazemla, Telegram, June 2, 2021
 * Apparently a passenger, apparently in Vilnius:  ...So a policeman enters a bus with him, he rides on a bus with us to the airport, and then 5 or 6 policemen approach them and they (all) walk away.... 
 * Not true if taken literally, Protasevich seen on video walking alone to the bus. This does not prevent, and makes some sense, that a policeman boards the bus too and riding it to the terminal (either to return back himself, or as a general security precaution not aimed at anybody in particular).
 * On the photo, military/police style trousers seen near Protasevich but there is no sense that he is restrained or arrested in any way. He did not indicate that either in video clips on Belarus ONT video; he said the bus was full, and that about the time they arrived to the terminal he saw somebody is taking a photo, but cannot say who was that. There is nothing in those video clips describing time or manner in which he was arrested. There is no word on why and how Sapega was arrested.
 * Passenger comments, if genuine/sincere, do not add much; there could be a group of people walking, and some policeman somewhere nearby, and then he lost sight of that group, twisting this a bit as that's what is felt to be expected for him to say, in Vilnius. He does not say when they walked away.
 * Comments on mainpage is all I could get out of ONT program timing, apart from them consistently saying authorities learned about Protasevich from media reporting him (arrested) in Minsk
 * They also make the case that military plain did not intercept, as it was not close to Ryanair plane, approaching Minsk from the opposite direction and not following Ryanair path; it was following departing plane, which is still not "intercepting"--which has a well-defined procedure on the books, like flying sideways on the left, making radio contact, and small rolls of the wings if no response.
 * I note that ATC conversation with Ryanair first described the source of bomb threat info as "security services", and later that the source was "airport security staff" (this is not the same thing of course). Since there were many bombing threats and such usage of protonmail, it is conceivable (and not surprising) that message was flagged by software, keywords etc. With this, it is not out of question that they could react fast, 5 min or so. But there is no really hard evidence that one side or another could stage things; we cannot see through the walls, into computers, etc. At this point, ONT version seems more plausible then alternatives. --Resup (talk) 10:49, 3 June 2021 (UTC)

The smoking gun?
Earlier is was assumed that the photo tweeted by Franak Viačorka at 12:35 UTC had been taken and sent to him by Sophia Sapega.

It was also assumed that the event described by Roman Protasevich had happened at the Athens airport.


 * Protasevic case: In the hands of the EYP the material from the security cameras of the airport – The Indicator, May 26, 2021
 * ''The material from the security cameras at the airport is in the hands of the EYP, with the investigation for the presence of the journalist-activist already started and the possibility of suspicious persons being examined, as complained by Roman Protasevic himself.
 * ''The mobilization of the Greek authorities began after the complaints of the journalist himself that while he was at the airport he located a man, whose characteristics he even described in a message he sent to a friend.
 * ''According to him, this man was watching him and photographing him.
 * ''According to information, the Greek authorities claim that the investigation so far has not given a suspicious role to people who were at the airport while they have not identified a person with the characteristics given by the journalist.

I commented on the story on Moon of Alabama:
 * ''I think we can assume that the "Russian-looking" agent that took a photo of Roman Protasevich at the Athens airport was working for the same service that sent the email. They would need to confirm that Protasevich was on the plane before sending the email.
 * ''If the photo incident happened at the Athens airport, as I assume, then Greek law enforcement should have surveillance video of this person. Is Greece searching for him? If he really was Belorussian (or Russian), then they should. If not, then most likely he was working for Team West.

It now seems that the incident happened at the Minsk airport. It was not Sophia Sapega, who took the photo, but the unknown "Russian-looking" and "Russian-speaking" person.

Protasevich describes the incident on the ONT video at 30 minutes. The photo was taken at about 12:28 UTC, only 7 minutes before it was tweeted by Franak Viačorka at 12:35 UTC.


 * Timeline (UTC)
 * 12:02: Protasevich enters airport bus
 * 12:22: Airport buses leave tarmac for terminal
 * ~12:28: Unknown person takes photo of Protasevich. Note, that a passenger boarding bridge is seen in the background. It is a mirror image of what is seen on the ONT video at 21 minutes.
 * 12:29: Airport buses have arrived at terminal. Doors are opened and passengers enter terminal building.
 * 12:35: Franak Viačorka tweets photo and accuses Belarus of piracy.

Belarus must know the identity of this person, evidently a passenger on FR4978. They have him on surveillance video and recorded his passport. They should have arrested him on charges of international terrorism, instead of Protasevic.

...maybe they did. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:46, 4 June 2021 (UTC)

"There is no such thing as independent journalism"
---This is what Markov, a pro-gov journalist with some military background says in the beginning of his interview, and Protasevich agrees. They talk quite a lot about creating money-making channels and in-fights for money, fame, influence. (Some other journalist founded Nexta, Putilo initial role was voice presenter; when founding journalist was arrested, Putilo became "owning" fame, like Sakharov prize, money-- Nexta-related bank accounts; while work was done by Protasevich, according to himself).

Markov was one of the persons whose personal details were leaked. He was able to create Protasevich' sense of guilt for such sort of actions, also playing on Protasevich' fear of prosecution in Belarus and LPR. He put to him that as a result of his actions, those people made public felt similar fear. Protasevich was breaking down after that.

(Noted: Strelkov, awhile ago, on unrelated topics: just about anybody can be broken--he included himself)

--Resup (talk) 04:24, 4 June 2021 (UTC)

Savchenko of Minsk?
Yeah, had similar thoughts too. Protasevich story is still fluid, and may be of a bit different psychological type. Savchenko was verbally fighting shortcomings of Russia in Russian prison, and Ukrainian ones in Ukraine, more hardline, less neurotic. It is pretty common when Ukrainian prisoners in L/DPR appear very remorseful, but sound very different when released; it's quite often tactical. Savchenko is more robust, like a tank. There are similarities too, like inner activism. --Resup (talk) 07:16, 15 June 2021 (UTC)