Talk:UAE in the Yemen conflict

Should I connect here the international alliances in the Libyan and Yemen conflicts? It seems for example that the Russians would be prepared to acommodate UAE backed STC, as they and the UAE are both opposed to Muslim Brotherhood elements (backed by Turkey) in both conflicts. I don't think Russia will take much of a stance on Yemen as has enough difficulty looking to maintain relations with Saudi, Turkey, UAE, Israel and Iran.


 * I am not sure anybody has a clear-cut answer why Russia is in Syria. As a work hypothesis I adopt Strelkov's, that there was a request from Obama for Russia to get involved against IS (presumably at a time when Obama was reluctant to engage IS on his own, while Russia was hoping for a deal sorting out Ukrainian conflict + recognition of Crimea joining Russia). In any case, it is a fact that subsequently Russia deployed forces on the side of Assad, with declared purpose of fighting IS, and no Russia-USA deal (on pretty much anything) ever materialized, and became pretty much unthinkable with all the "Russia's interference in elections" saga. Subsequent involvement on the ground was mostly by PMC pursuing a mix of commercial and other interests, like trying to control oil installations, + sometimes using manpower, some from Donbass, to capture places, like Palmyra. Libya's involvement is mostly by PMC, and is similar to Syria (oil + tasks of opportunity) . I very much doubt that Russia is interested in getting involved in trouble spots per se, or have resources to do so. It is not really about ideological alliances, it is more like a mix of commerce and opportunity. Radical nationalists like Kvachkov would say that  it's a commercial venture under cover of state interests, not state interests under cover of commerce ( I don't agree with Kvachkov on most issues, but here, it may be of some degree of truth).


 * As for Yemen, I do not really know or understand the conflict, but it's pretty widespread view that this has to do with proxy war between Iran, Saudis + allies (and maybe somebody else for the mix). Maybe with local agenda mixed up with external actors exploiting those, as is often the case. It may be good to understand all this better. But on practical side, I do not see much chance to get somebody involved, for the purpose of sorting it out. In Russia, likely it will be seen as getting into a conflict between Iran and Saudis, having Iran as an ally in Syria + a neighbor, and Saudis controlling one of the most important export market , the oil prices. They may get involved by sending more weapons in, to either side, and sending advisors if somebody pays for it; but I do not see them getting involved for the sake of backing up one side, or for the sake of sorting it out (unfortunately). There is huge mess with Ukraine, economy, several external conflicts on top, and there is likely no capacity (or expectation of outweighting benefits) for more involvement  --Resup (talk) 12:07, 16 September 2020 (UTC)


 * I guess had in mind UAE and Turkey clashing in both Yemen and Libya,as well as the transfers of mercenaries fighting in Syria, Libya and Yemen. But there isn't much coverage here on Libya recently,


 * As for what's driving/prolonging Yemen, the control of Bab al Mandeb is key for players like US, UK, Israel and France and their commercial interests, they can't stand not to have a client regime there. The Saudi's taking the blame is quite convenient. But who is keeping the House of Saud propped up after all? - not the Saudi populace.
 * Iran has provided some support to the Houthi's, but I don't think they were really there driving things at the outset. --Diagonal (talk) 12:53, 16 September 2020 (UTC)
 * I am not really getting where is Muslim Brotherhood (MB) in Yemen conflict. Opponents of STC are the Houthis,are they not, and I am not aware of them having to do with MB. Houthis seem to be doing Iranian job, like attacking Saudis oil installations once in a while, reportedly having slogan extending Iranian "death to", we know who, etc. Is there different MB forces out there? They do not seem to be in the news.
 * As for Houthis movement, it is surprising how they manage to hold so well against, apparently, modern equipped forces. Eg in Donbass, on days when "nothing" happens, may require truckloads of ammo, and in flare-ups, trainloads. How Houthis get all that, and in the manner invincible from the air? Is this like small-arms ambushes from mountainous bases, like Chechnya, Afghanistan? There are some mountains around Sanaa, unsure how crucial is that in this war.


 * Noted, dynamics may be fluid now, with Turkey directly attacking Russian interests in the Caucuses, which are with both Armenia and Azerbaijan (+ a formal treaty with Armenia) --Resup (talk) 05:50, 5 October 2020 (UTC)


 * Al Islah are the Muslim Brotherhood group that have been fighting the STC in the South. They were allied with the Hadi/Saudi coalition, but have recently distances themselves from the Saudi's, and we're hearing more of Turkish support. They fight against the houthis more than the STC do. I'm not aware of STC vs Ansarallah fighting although they don't approve of each other. I meant to do more coverage back in the summer on fighting in the south. At one stage Al Islah were pulling forces away from front in Bayda fighting Ansarallah to confront the STC forces in the south.
 * As for the capabilities of Ansarallah they have a lot of experience fighting in that terrain. People also tend to overlook that much of the Yemeni army chose to fight alongside Ansarallah, with the other elements sticking with Hadi regime. Officers defect between the two factions of the armed forces. Some sources disputing the narrative of Iranian backing of the Houthis e.g. here.
 * I started putting up some Yemen coverage because I just felt it deserved more. It's not very in depth put hopefully the sources will be helpful for people wanting to explore a bit more deeply, to the extent possible without Arabic language. --Diagonal (talk) 16:28, 7 October 2020 (UTC)
 * It's hard to keep up with the shifting alliances. It's complicated in the south where the houthi's don't really belong. Some militias like the Giant's brigade and Tariq Afash previously fought with the Saudi/Hadi coalition, but now have an accomodation with the STC with whom they have previously clashed, after STC displaced the Hadi forces in Aden. The UAE which backs both wants rid of Al-Islah. Whose fighting who can vary depending on the region. Ansarallah have been fighting against Al-Islah (and more extreme salfists )for Marib, but are fighting the previously Saleh aligned UAE backed forces in the west. The dynamic between the Hadi, Saleh and the houthi sides is also very complicated. The STC belong in the south and the Houthi's in the north so they aren't each others main priority (asfaik). --Diagonal (talk) 10:53, 8 October 2020 (UTC)