Torture Photos from "Caesar"/Photo Timeline

The following seeks to organize at least many of the "Caesar" photos into a timeline and correlate details as possible. The pictures database of the Syrian Association for Missing and Conscience Detainees (SAFMCD) is used for reference, along with previously published photos, claimed identifications, opposition VDC entries, and other sources.

All folders at the SAFMCD site (auto-translated from Arabic), in order of size:
 * 215 - secret raids and intrusions - 3,556 photos
 * 227 - Zone Branch (Damascus) - 2,047 photos
 * Air Force Intelligence Branch - 390 photos
 * 216 - periodicals Branch - 297
 * 235 - Palestine Branch - 128
 * "Anonymous branch": 109
 * 251 - Internal branch - the state security: 103
 * "Sporadic views": 71
 * 248 - military investigation Branch - 54
 * 220 - Sasa branch: 50
 * Military Police Branch: 45

Total photos = 6,850. All but a very few are victim face-shots, with very few repetitions (at least six cases, but citation needed). Therefore, estimates of alleged detainees of these branches in the mid-to-upper 6,000 range seem well supported.

Furthermore, the time-span seems limited. Images are said to run back to early 2012, but it seems so far very few images appear (in folders dated) before November 1, 2012. However, that's a giant folder and stretches back over an unclear span. From there they come in heavily, with folder names like 3-2013, 7-7-2013, and running up to August 14, 2013 - so covering mainly a nine-month span, depending when all the images in the November folder were taken (dates seem to be when created, and even that's not necessarily correct).

At right is a graphic to explain the numbers referred to below. The top victim number, allegedly, was assigned by the branch of military intelligence indicated below that. The bottom number is set at hospital 601 morgue, apparently by the team taking the "Caesar" photos. "SAFMCD code #" is their index, irrelevant, but useful for searches etc. (on each photo of theirs in red). "Original name" is the photo title as given by SAFMCD with each linked entry. It seems to say branch-victim#-date(d-mm-yyyy)-(number in sequence of photos of the same victim?). As for the victim the numbers in this photo are attached to, see Branch 227 below.

Select and random victims by branch number (in the order above), then victim number.

Branch 215
some unclear strays to work in (re-set points, typos, or what?):


 * 0 -- none -- 806948 http://www.safmcd.com/martyr/view.php?id=3976 -- 215-000-2-12-2012 (2)
 * 0 -- none -- 686239 -- 215-000-2-2013 (9) -- young
 * 8 -- -- 274882 http://www.safmcd.com/martyr/view.php?id=3988 -- 215-0008-7-6-2013 (2)
 * 11 -- -- 774319 http://www.safmcd.com/martyr/view.php?id=3990 -- 215-11-14-8-2013 (2) -- left eye?
 * 131 137832 -- 215-131-3-2013 (2)
 * 197 -- 377904 http://www.safmcd.com/martyr/view.php?id=3996 -- 215-197-2-2013 (2)
 * 829 453067 -- 215-829-2-2013 (2)

The Other Half
All above sections deal with the half (28,707) of the "Caesar" photos (per HRW's December report) showing an estimated 6,786 alleged government detainees. A slightly smaller half (24568) was said by HRW to show "attack sites or of bodies identified by name as of government soldiers, other armed fighters, or civilians killed in attacks, explosions, or assassination attempts." It seems perhaps none of these have been publicly released. Here's a table in case any turn up.

By Hospital Number
I've scanned all the images I have (most of them...) and got a ton of hospital/exam/body # (above, card bottom #). Every number on these cards is suspect, but this is the most likely to be reliable/valid and also seems to map out well over time. I plotted out several dozen cases where I can match that victim to a SAFMCD entry, with original file name including folder date. The folder dates aren't gospel, and as we can see they mainly aren't very specific. At the moment, I'm taking the date as creation date, filled with new and maybe previous images, and also added to until the next one is started. Not clear.

It's hyped how "Caesar's" photos show torture and repression for the whole conflict from March, 2011 to August, 2013. But the numbers suggest only about 1,000 unidentified bodies - less than 10% of the total implied - were logged between the start and July, 2012. 1,000 in 15 months is an average of less than 70 a month.

Probably that many victims are listed, but no reliable #s yet. The earliest possible hospital #s are in the 500-1100 range – this is a thing that emerged analyzing Majed Abu Draa – it seems likely his hospital number 1075 was re-branded as branch 215 ID# way out of sequence - others in the span seem to fit the same pattern, often duplicating ID 3s in the process. … these seem to fit actually, correlating logically to June and July 2012 folders.

But otherwise, there's a huge gap; the first clear H #s are in low 2000s, already in the 1-11-2012 folder. Here I've mapped the numbers from here forward, from 2,000 to 5,000, repeating 1,000-5,000 with a /b suffix, and the suggested 1,000+ past that, although no examples at all have been seen yet.

It's not clear how far back the 1-11 folder covers, but likely some span - it's huge. And on the other end, #s reportedly go to over 11,000 and the last folder 14-8 is both huge and short on body shots with visible H#s - they probably do tick up that far unseen to us. So … this implies at least 8000 and perhaps over 10,000 unidentified or coded bodies passed through in 10 months, or the span covered by these folders. I suspect 1-11 covers the time frame of the Daraya in August and whatever else, from the size of it, so likely a span of one year. 8-10,000 over 10-12 month = Average rate: 700-1,000/month - at least ten times the rate over the first year. Final 5-6 months saw about 6,500 - at least 1,083/month. What strange luck - just as "Caesar" got his insider documentation system down, someone decided to start really sending mass numbers of horribly abused bodies for him to document. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:26, 16 February 2016 (UTC)


 * Also FWIW the branch victim #s tend to tick upward logically as if they covered a portion of the sequentially discovered unidentified bodies. At least 215 and 227 (about 75% of the total) do this, other than the few odd entries or groups like mentioned above. The one exception I've noticed is Air Force intel, J - their numbers bounce around a lot - 9000s killed and then 2,000s a month later, etc. But they have other weird patterns too I mean to explain somewhere. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:39, 16 February 2016 (UTC)