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Minsk Agreements


19.02 Poroshenko has held a phone conversation in the Normandy format, told them "not to pretend that the events in Debaltseve meet the Minsk agreements". He has also urged to elaborate clear guarantees for the possible attempts of violating the given agreements in the future. (Debaltsevo situation was known in Minsk--indeed he should not be pretending).

18.02 Poroshenko plans to ask for UN peacekeepers

17.02 UN SC unanimously approved a resolution supporting Minsk agreements. (Yet, testy rhetoric noted by Churkin)

14.02 Russia introduced UN SC resolution approving Minsk agreements of February 12. So far, English speaking world, UK and USA, did not clearly expressed their positions, and it may give an indication. So far, it was along the lines that Russia has to deliver, and may be further sanctioned otherwise, while Ukraine has nothing to deliver, and will not be sanctioned for failures. Russian officials called for a change of such approach, taking a position that the conflict is internally Ukrainian and Russia is not a participant (example). While Russian media are making presentations indicating that it is the USA who is a participant, in Kiev overlord capacity (example).

12.02 Two documents were agreed: 10.02 Contact Group agrees (a plan of)  heavy troops withdrawal, ceasefire regime -TASS
 * on measures on implementing Minsk protocol (English language PDF here). Ceasefire starting on February 15; separation of heavy weapons (from actual line for Ukraine, and from September 19 line for Novorossia; this enlarges separation), starting in 2 days from ceasefire, finishing in 14 days. All for all prisoners exchange, to finish in 5 days from separation begins. Time limits are given for all major steps. Return of border control to Ukraine is agreed to occur after local elections and constitutional reform (taking interests of breakaway regions into account)
 * declaration of support of Ukrainian peace settlement. This includes support and control of implementation.
 * It may be the case that sides do not make binding obligations, but approve and support listed measures (language is a bit vague, if something is broken later, or sides do not agree whether later vague steps actually occurred, not clear exactly what will follow)

Plotniskii, Zakharchenko press statement (English subs)

Still no direct contact between official Kiev and Novorossia. -(Mentioned by Putin in his press statement as one of the reasons negotiations took so long, had to go back and forth with Trilateral Group).

08.02 After telephone conference today, it is said that Normandy four to meet in Minsk on 11.02 if some positions will be resolved prior to that. Details of positions not explained. (Lukashenko talked to both Putin and Poroshenko about this and is happy and keen for them to come to Minsk)

06.02 Hollande-Merkel-Putin talks are finished in Moscow, it is said that a Normandy format document is being prepared based on meetings in Kiev and Moscow. Phone conference call in Normandy format expected on Sunday. (--Putin spokesman Peskov, TASS).) Putin off to Sochi, meets Lukashenko and rests; Hollande and Merkel also departing Moscow.

Petro Poroshenko, Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande insist on the immediate and unconditional ceasefire in the Donbas

Plotniskii and Zakharchenko press conference -explains Republics position why it is not their fault that latest Minsk meeting did not succeed (English subs).

Victor Baloga, Governor of trans-Carpathian region of Ukraine, proposes a referendum on whether to continue war or separate from the rebel regions. Gennady Korban, assistant Governor, Dnepropetrovsk, proposes to choose between war and an agreement.

Chronicle: Sources
TASS Chronicle-link to daily updates, (Russian),  TASS  - Ukraine (English) (easiest to search).

Rusvesna-news (Russian),   rusvesna (English). ---  Opolchenie version of events.

TSN (Ukraine) (Ukrainian or Russian). Ukrainian version of events.

Photos/Videos
Uglegorsk: NAF arranged a corridor for civilians (English sub.) Donetsk children

Enakievo Gorlovka Nikishino Nikishino (center) Uglegorsk

Maps


Dragon-First maps; Kot Ivanov.

February,2015
21.02 Prisoner exchange took place, 35 prisoners on DPR side for 37 on Kiev side. One Ukrainian prisoner refused to be exchanged and stayed on DPR territory. More exchanges planned.

20.02 Control on heavy weapons withdrawal was agreed. UAF forces Kiev forces and Donbas leadership seek to withdraw weapons from the contact line as soon as possible, Russia's envoy at Joint Center for Ceasefire Control and Coordination says. Joint groups consist of representatives of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, Russia’s Armed Forces and also the representatives of Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics in the joint center for ceasefire control and coordination (jccc)

Situation in Debaltsevo stabilized, almost no firefights; it is said that UAF withdraw.

19.02 Donetsk shelled overnight from 3 directions by Ukraine, using MLRS, mortars, artillery, firearms. There are wounded civilians. Not something which should be happening during ceasefire. Opolchenie considers revenge for Debaltsevo as the motive. (rusvesna).

Gazprom started direct deliveries of gas to Novorossia. The day before, Ukrainian Naftogaz stopped their gas deliveries to Novorossia, blaming damage to pipeline infrastructure as a result of warfare. According to LPR/DPR, only gas vents on Ukrainian side are irreversibly damaged (irony indicating sabotage suspicion). Gazprom presented direct deliveries as fulfilling the contract with Ukraine. That likely means that they may reduce gas deliveries to the rest of Ukraine, in effect billing Ukraine for the direct deliveries.

Zakharchenko: Debaltsevo mp-up is finished. Alexander Afendikov is appointed new mayor of Debaltsevo; reconstruction work will start at once. 18.02 Withdrawal of heavy weapons began. Photos show opolchenie moving MLRS, artillery from Elenovka, Telmanovo.

Up to 40 armored vehicles managed to break throw (exact number disputed), while many vehicles were destroyed and soldiers killed in a nighttime escape attempt. According to Poroshenko, "80 % " of soldiers managed to leave the cauldron; this is probably a gross exaggeration. Dragon-first count gives 6 tanks, 28 BMP/BTR/MTLB, 5 BRDM, one Grad, 5 self-propelled artillery escaping; with an estimate that true number may be up to 25% higher. This would be an infantry battalion and few extra companies; while details are a bit sketchy, considerably more was supposed to be there initially.

Unusually, a NYT report about escape attempts, not fully negative on opolchenie.

153 soldiers Ukrainian, including 12 officers, surrendered (rusvesna)

There was a big tank battle in the night of 18.02 near Debaltsevo, lots of tanks destroyed (photo, video)

17.02 Most of Debaltsevo controlled by opolchenie. UAF said to receive orders to exit in small groups on their own, destroy weapons. Many taken prisoners (report). But there are also reports on Ukrainian rearguards opening fire on their own, to prevent surrendering.

Putin in RT interview, in answering question on possible US weapons deliveries to Ukraine: foreign weapons are already being delivered to Ukraine. However that will not change the situation, since Ukrainian military does not want to participate in fratricidal war, while opolchenie is highly motivated to  protect their families.

Zakharchenko was at Debaltsevo, got lightly wounded (ankle), now at the hospital and doing alright.

Heavy weapons pull-out have not started yet, due to continued fighting in isolated areas

16.02 DPR raised issues with heavy weapons withdrawal from the airport, which is too close to the city of Donetsk; withdrawing heavy weapons from the airport will open up the city. Also, cannot withdraw where it can open the cauldron. Need ceasefire to hold and simultaneous moves by Ukraine and DPR for heavy weapons withdrawal to happen

Canada has plans to send military instructors -rusvesna quoting Global News

15.02 In Debaltsevo, NAF seized 4 Ukrainian Grad launchers and large quantities of Grad munitions Basurin at 2:01. All were moved away from the city.

Novorossia evening report notes that Ukraine is using ceasefire to reinforce troops trying to break cauldron at Debaltsevo, and positions nearby Donetsk and Luhansk. 16 violations of the ceasefire listed, not just at Debaltsevo. Some violations include heavy weapons use -artillery, tank fire.

The Normandy Four discussed implementation of the ceasefire on the phone; a lot was about Debaltsevo. Also OSCE role was discussed -TASS

OSCE briefing: in the past 12 hours, ceasefire mostly observed -TASS. According to Basurin, ceasefire mostly observed with some violations by UAF at Debaltsevo.

14.02 Both sides gave ceasefire orders. It is said to be getting mostly quiet in Donetsk and Debaltsevo at night past ceasefire deadline (rusvesna). However later reports tell about fire by UAF in Gorlovka, Enakievo, and Donetsk Airport (rusvesna). Report on Cassad say that fire started in Debaltsevo. Opolchenie responds to fire.

Massive random shelling of Donetsk reported. Fighting rages in Mar'inka nearby. Donetsk shelling by Ukraine goes past the midnight deadline; said to calm down some 7 minutes after that (rusvesna)

13.02 In the morning, UAF ammunition storage was destroyed in Debaltsevo, with dramatic photos emerging. In the evening, LPR entered Debaltsevo- Life News video report. Intensive fighting continues, casualties on both sides. An opolchenie member is telling that they will not stop until Debaltsevo is mopped up; that may go past ceasefire deadline. Four attempts by UAF to break the siege at Logvinovo, all of them failed. Heavy shelling of opolchenie positions near Mariupol from heavy weapons. For the day, UAF lost 4 tanks, 15 BMP/BTR, up to 100 killed in total Basurin, DPR. Donetsk, Gorlovka were shelled, 2 civilians killed and 8 wounded in Donetsk. In Gorlovka, 2 civilians killed, 1 wounded.

12.02 Ukraine throws reserves, said to be up to 3 battalion groups and 40 tanks, to retake Logvinovo. Opolchenie controls hills overlooking the area and so can inflict a lot of damage with artillery. From military perspective, Ukrainian attack is essentially suicidal, and taken for (wrongly interpreted) political and reputation reasons. First attack was repelled at a closed range near the village; the last two tanks were destroyed about a 100 meters from opolchenie positions (if a tank reaches trenches, its machine gun can kill those in the trench, otherwise chances are not very high). Second attack was repelled by NAF tanks counter-attacking; advancing UAF infantry had high losses. After this, fighting became an artillery duel (opolchenie member Shurygin battle account). According to evening report by Basurin (DPR), UAF lost 127 killed,   200 wounded,   7 tanks, 11 BMP and BTR. Further 42 UAF were killed in  night battles. Elsewhere, intense shelling of Lugansk from Grads, at least 4 civilians killed and 7 wounded. 3 children killed in Gorlovka. There is a word that plans of a "black night" for Novorossia was discussed on Ukrainian sites (severe shelling of Novorossia cities from all weapons), before the ceasefire deadline. That discussion was than deleted by Ukrainian sites administrators (noted at the end of Shurygin report)

Heavy clashes in Logvinovo (closing of Debaltsevo cauldron). Ukraine uses all weapons, including "Pions" and heavy MLRS; says Logvinovo it is retaken; NAF says they still control it. Video appears to show NAF is still in control in Logvinovo.

Putin and Poroshenko could not agree on whether there is cauldron at Debaltsevo, according to Putin press conference statement. So now many attacks may happen to figure this out. (Putin called for calm to avoid unnecessary bloodshed. But reports from Debaltsevo appear to show different actual development).

Novorossia intelligence warned about a possible provocation against civilians in Stanitsa Luganskaia, to disrupt Minsk agreements.

11-12.02 at night, Luhansk was shelled with Smerch MLRS. Video shows un-exploded missile removal; OSCE on the scene

10.02 US President calls Russian President (WH readout) (Kremlin readout) and President of Ukraine (WH readout) (President of Ukraine readout)

Russia's OSCE representative Andrei Kelin confirmed that a demilitarized zone in Eastern Ukraine is discussed (extending Minsk, where only heavy weapons were supposed to be moved). It will be either totally free from weapons and controlled by police, or personal firearms allowed. No definite decision yet.

09.02 Village of Logvinovo taken by NAF. This fully closes the cauldron at Debaltsevo. NAF entered parts of Debaltsevo, took the railway sorting station.

08.02 Turchinov reviewed new military equipment given to UAF. That included BTR 80 and Ukrainian BTR Spartan armed with rockets "Stugna" and 12 mm machine gun. Turchinov said that new equipment is needed to stop aggressor ("Russian terrorist group") and liberate ceased territory.

Respected Cossack commander "Plastun", said to be now in charge of "Batman" RSG gave an audio interview. UAF at Debaltsevo is in cauldron; there are two escape points still not closed but they are controlled by NAF artillery. A ceasefire was agreed with UAF to evacuate civilians, however UAF broke it and shelled NAF positions with Uragan; NAF had casualties. In response to question that ceasefire may be asked to evacuate foreign equipment, Plastun stated that UAF use "a  lot" of foreign made weapons, and "yesterday, we were even shelled from Apache helicopter, operated by highly professional crew". (Apache is US made, and operated by some Asian and Middle Eastern countries in addition to NATO). There is no visual confirmation, just the verbal claim of Plastun.

Redkodub taken by NAF. A big column of UAF military equipment is moving from Dnepopetrovsk to Donetsk (Basurin)

07.02 "President Petro Poroshenko has held trilateral negotiations with Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel and U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden.The parties have discussed the development of negotiations on the peaceful resolution in the Ukrainian Donbas in the context of joint proposals on the fulfillment of the Minsk agreements elaborated in the course of the meeting between President Poroshenko, Chancellor Merkel and President Hollande in Kyiv. President Poroshenko, Chancellor Merkel and Vice President Biden have coordinated future steps and emphasized the need for immediate ceasefire and continuation of dialogue on the implementation of all items of the Minsk agreements. The interlocutors have underlined the necessity of compliance with joint transatlantic position on the situation in Ukraine"- (Poroshenko web site).

06.02 Debaltsevo evacuation "disrupted" by Ukraine, civilians not notified, only 40 showed up to board buses to Donetsk. Some shelling still occurred despite agreed ceasefire. 3 civilians were wounded in Chernukhino. Ukrainian news give brighter picture; but people interviewed appear confused where they are going, and not aware there have a choice. (Donetsk is often shelled, this may be a practical consideration; but none of that is discussed in interviews). Another report on evacuations from Debaltsevo. Ukraine is said to evacuate 296 people from Debaltsevo in one day,  05-06.02 (including 30 wounded, 2 children)

Humanitarian corridor in Debaltsevo agreed starting at 9 am. In Chernukhino, it is reported that UAF is not allowing civilians to leave (mines roads, said to pour gasoline into water wells to make them not usable). Lots of shelling on the previous day throughout Novorossia; nother UAF plane is reportedly shot down. Heavy shelling of Starobeshevo at night, UAF attack in that direction feared.

05.02 Opolchenie tanks defeated Ukrainian fortified position at Debaltsevo. Earlier, Ukraine, OSCE, UN proposed a local ceasefire to evacuate civilians at Debaltsevo (dire civilian situation at Chernukino and Gorlovka not mentioned); while opolchenie proposed a different ceasefire plan. An agreement was not reached. Opolchenie warned about a planned provocation against civilians at Debaltsevo, which they learned from interrogation of UAF prisoner.

Hollande, Merkel will travel to Kiev  with a new peace solution proposal; on 06.02 they will visit Putin. Hollande stated that NATO membership for Ukraine is not desirable, and sale of weapons not planned (TASS)

Kerry visited Kiev today (report, video). Russia is blamed; so far, weapon sales not announced.

03.02.15 Opolchenie entered Debaltsevo from the West. Fighting continues in Chernukhino for the 4 day; many civilian casualties feared; the number can increase if there is no rescue operation as many are injured. Civilian convoy trying to escape Chernukhino was fired on from BTR and small arms fire; 5 civilians killed, the rest had to turn back.

Basurin shows NATO -type shells used by Ukraine in Gorlovka, 155 mm from M109 A1 (US made;-- Switzerland and Middle Eastern states are known as current operators), and a 75 mm MLRS missile fragment. Both shells are not in use by Ukraine or Russia. video

Gorlovka was shelled from heavy MLRS (Uragan). New 2 meter deep craters appeared. Donetsk shelled with Smerch.

02.02.2015.opolchenie map (also File:MapDragon010215.jpg ) (1): Ukrainian Tochka U downed.

01.02.15 opolchenie map. (1): Nikishino  taken by NAF ;  (9): Uglegorsk fully controlled by NAF.

Mobilization planned by Novorossia in some 10 days, up to 100 thousand may be called for duty (Cassad)
 * Strelkov applied to be mobilized based on wife's Donetsk residency, listing military skills.

Opolchenie repeats that they are ready for a ceasefire, based on the actual front line. Ukraine insists on the line from 19 September memorandum. (That line was never implemented-Airport has to go to Novorossia, for example, and shelling of cities did not stop.)

Military Casualties
19.02 Zakharchenko: Ukrainian losses in Debaltsevo cauldron may be up to 3 -3.5 thousand killed. There are plans to release or exchange those taken prisoners.

16.02 UAF: estimated 60 killed; NAF 2 killed, 21 wounded (source).

14.02 for the day and up to the ceasefire started: UAF lost 111 killed, NAF lost 8 killed, 28 wounded -Basurn

13.02 up to 100 UAF killed  Basurin, DPR

12.02 Day + night, UAF lost 169 killed (links in the news section)

08.02 LPR commander Maxim Martakov, a military policeman, and 6 fighters were killed under Chernukhino. They provided corridor for civilians. 11 UAF soldiers were killed, 29 wounded (Basurin)

04.02.15 UAF losses: 21 killed

03.02.15 UAF losses estimated at 79 killed.

02.02.15 UAF losses estimated at 130 killed.
 * Totals. In 29 days, up to ceasefire starting, 2760 UAF killed, 60 taken prisoners -Basurn
 * In 22 days since fighting restarted, 2056 UAF killed (Basurin)
 * 17 Jan.-3 Feb. UAF losses estimated at 1738 killed, 52 taken prisoners (Basurin, DPR).

Civilian Casualties
08.02 Many instances of shelling of Donetsk with MLRS (including Uragans), and artillery. One very powerful explosion (videos available) was reported as well. Later it was said that a chemical plant producing paints and dry mixes in Donetsk was hit by a heavy artillery shell (DPR did not confirm that it was ammunition plant); preliminary information is that nobody was killed in that explosion.

07.02 After ceasefire ended on 6.02, Ukraine attempted an attack on the whole front line; the attack was repelled. 6 civilians were killed, 15 wounded in Donetsk due to shelling by Ukraine from the North-West.

05.02. Shelling by Ukraine had 7 civilians killed, 44 wounded, most of them in Donetsk. Schools, hospitals, kindergartens hit. Ukraine is using Smerch MLRS; range is 80 km; a full salvo covers an area of 8 football fields.

04.02 Donetsk hospital shelled, 5 killed, 5 wounded. Civilian objects destroyed: Donetsk 17, Makeevka 28, Gorlovka 2

02.02.15 16 killed, 34 wounded in DPR and LPR combined. Civilian areas hit by MLRS, Makeevka and Donetsk, (13), (14) on opolchenie map, 02.02.2015

22.01 Donetsk bus shelled at least 8 killed, 13 injured
 * Residents react abusively to UAF 'cyborg' officer captured earlier at the Airport and brought to the scene

13.01 Volnovakha bus: 12 killed, 18 wounded (talk). 24.01 Mariupol market shelling: 30 killed, 83 injured (talk).
 * Totals. Latest official UN figure: 224 civilians killed and 545 wounded in the three weeks leading up to 1 February. According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), the overall death toll now exceeds 5,358 people, with another 12,235 wounded since mid-April last year (Deaths here are likely certified, and mostly civilian).

Military Hardware Lost
19.02 In Debaltsevo, opolchenie captured 265 pieces of UAF military equipment. 28 tanks, 63 BMP/BTR, 145 vehicles, 16 anti-aircraft guns, 13 artillery and mortar pieces were found in good condition and have been adopted by the DPR army. Also captured: about 1000 firearms, 39 ammunition storages and 2 railroad card with ammunition -Basurin

14.02 4 Grads launchers and ammunition seized by NAF near Debaltsevo -Basurn

03.02.15 Two UAF SU 25 were shot down (near Commisarovka and Chernukhino; one pilot bailed out). Also a drone shot down near Irvino

02-03.02.15 UAF lost 5 tanks, 1 BMP, 11 artillery pieces, one plane (and/or one Tochka U)
 * Totals: for 29 days, up to ceasefire: UAF lost 3 airplanes, 1 helicopter, 205 tanks, 182 BMP, BTR, MTLB, 208 field artillery guns, 124 vehicles  -Basurn
 * for 22 days since fighting restarted: UAF lost 3 planes, 1 helicopter, 168 tanks, 133 BMP/BTR, 124 artillery pieces, 94 vehicles
 * 17 Jan.-3 Feb. UAF lost 3 planes, 1 helicopter, 146 tanks, 114 BMP/BTR, 91 artillery pieces, 64 vehicles

Banned Weapons Use
04.02.15 UAF shelled Telmanovo from Mirnoe by Smerch MLRS, civilian houses destroyed

03.02.15 Luhansk and Donetsk: Smerch, heavy MLSRS with cluster munitions used by Ukraine.

02.02. Report on phosphorous ammunition used against civilians by Ukraine.

28.01. OSCE confirms (03.02 report) that cluster Smerch munitions were used against Artemivskyi district of Luhansk, shelling was from NNW. (Shelling done by Ukraine).

Abbreviations Used
MLRS: Multiple Launch Rocket System, Grad/Uragan/Smerch. Uragan or Smerch typically have cluster munitions

UAF (=AFU): Ukrainian Armed Forces

NAF (=AFN): Opolchenie, Novorossia Armed Forces

RSG: recon and subversion group