Ukraine news/Current



11 Jan. Iran acknowledged shooting down Ukrainian Boeing "due to human error". Ali Hajizadeh EngRus: air defense unit lost communication with higher command when it discovered a target 19 km away; it had only 10 s. to make a decision, and they made a bad one  (as translated). This all but excludes Tor-M1 missile engine on at impact (=impossible with description taken literally) and suggests that the NYT video is fake or misrepresented (missile with engine off will not be seen), or that details of Iranian version are not accurate.

Iranian-version map with partial Eng. explanation is at around 0:40 here, in RFE/RL article describing follow-up protests in Iran. Full video here, with details a bit confusing in Eng translation, but apparently launch is 12 km away horizontally (not 19 km, in print in the same source), on approaching courses. This makes things trickier, but still Tor M1 engine would be off, with a narrow margin. And doubtful somebody would be there to videorecord.

Ukraine published photos and claims that the lower part of the pilots' cabin was hit by a missile; SNBO head Danilov says it was discovered before the Iranian announcement and before Western countries started to publicize (the missile version), but was kept quiet to continue the investigation. It is also said that no distress communication calls were received (consistent with the cabin hit).

AP: New questions rise

10 Jan. Fars News made a preannouncement.

Ukr FM Pristaiko at his 30 min long fast-fire Ukr/Eng press conference gives no hints about the crash causes; confirms that intelligence info is received but provides no details.

Zelenskii conversed with Pompeo.

Zelenskii: The missile version is not ruled out, but it has not been confirmed yet. Iran: plane was on fire for 1.5 minutes. We estimate that it makes it on fire well before NYT video BC geolocation. However the 1.5 minutes claim was made before black boxes were analyzed, on unclear and unconfirmed basis.

9 Jan. NY Times publishes a video claiming missile hitting Ukrainian Boeing. Initial poster first said he did not have metadata, then said NY Times published video. It is not clear how the video was verified. Video, actually, may be genuine, but what does it show? It could be the plane climbing up with lights on, or having engine fire (appearing as "a missile"), and then the engine exploding, blowing a burning and visible piece back (uncertain; can't exclude either this or a missile climbing; we do not have a good scale useful to infer velocities. Roughly 11 s. for the sound to arrive, the distance to the explosion is roughly 3.8 km straight. There is residential area with look-alike houses and camera could be on either SW or NE side from the path. Video can be mirrored easily. Also the plane could be returning back to the airport while it's path on Flightradar an extrapolation. So either above is not excluded). It remains unexplained why the video author was recording on his cell phone at about 6am local, apparently expressing no emotions and then apparently abruptly stopping the recording.

Another video emerged, shot as the very first one from a car/dashboard camera. It appears to give backing to the burning engine version.

8 Jan. Ukrainian Boeing 737-8KV (Flightradar; delivered 19 Jul 2016) crashed in Tehran, said to be because of engine fire, killing all on board, including 11 Ukrainians. Putin sends condolences to Zelenskii. Pompeo sends a Twitter. Videos. Crash visualization. (Noted, engine on fire, Boeing 737, Rwanda Air, the same day).

BBC starts to peddle MH17. Pictures noted & media reported engine overheating reports quoting Western intelligence. Newsweek has proverbial unnamed officials backing missile theory. CBS News quoting US intelligence said a satellite detected infrared "blips" of two missile launches (BBC), followed by another blip of an explosion (that is more serious; but did it?). Trump got "suspicions".

4 Jan. Strelkov publishes a list of 13 soldiers killed defending DPR, 1 Dec.'19 to 1 Jan.'20.

3 Jan. Denisultanov is interviewed, quoted telling a different version of a shootout (see 1 Jun 2017) involving Okueva and Osmanov in which Denisultanov received multiple gunshot wounds. Promises more details including something to do with Nemtsov in another interview.

1 Jan. 2020 A video showing 268 soldiers killed defending L/DPR in 2019. DPR ombdudsman data, see 27 Dec. Cassad's count here. Ukrainian losses in six years may be over 40,000. 29 Dec. It is reported that prisoners exchange is completed. 25 prisoners from LPR traveled on a bus to the Ukrainian side of Mayorskoe checkpoint and those released to LPR by Ukraine traveled on a bus back, some of those pictured, and more photos/profiles here. Exchange with DPR is supposed to occur on the 'rebel' side.

Office of president Zelenskii posted some exchange photos and livestreams here.

Ukraine published full list of prisoners returned to Ukraine.

Ukraine released 5 'Berkut' men, Gadziev, Denisultanov.

27 Dec. Ukrainian attorney D. Tikhonenkov on the prisoners' exchange with Russia expected to occur at 11 am at "Mayorskoe" checkpoint on 29 Dec. 2019: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JkjXh51N08''"Prosecutor, help the President (Zelenskii) keep his word - drop the charge!" ''] (Rus. Прокурор, помоги Президенту сдержать слово – сними обвинение! Адвокат Д. Тихоненков об обмене).
 * On 29 Dec, nine of his firm's clients have been exchanged.

DPR ombudsman: ''From January 1 to December 26, 2019 in the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic as a result of armed aggression from Ukraine, 166 people were killed, of which 157 were military personnel of the Republic, 6 civilian women and 3 civilian men. 223 people received injuries of varying severity, of which 149 military personnel of the Republic, 24 civilian women, 45 civilian men and 5 minors.''

25 Dec. Prihodko: in Gorlovka, Vladimir Sorokin, a 59-year old civilian, had his head and shoulder wounded

23 Dec. Putin opens Crimea Bridge to rail traffic

22 Dec. [http://lug-info.com/news/one/ukraina-prekratila-podachu-vody-v-chetyre-goroda-respubliki-luganskvoda-51960 LPR. Ukraine cuts water supply] (targeting civilian water supply is a war crime in international law). ''From 2:00 "Popasnyansk  regional water utility" completely stopped supplying water from the pump station ZFS-3, located on the territory of Ukraine, through the water duct "ZFS-3 - ZFS-4". The cities of Pervomaisk, Stakhanov, Kirovsk, partially Bryanka and other adjacent settlements remained without water supply. Specialists of the Alchevsk Directorate immediately started switching over at the water supply facilities to redistribute the volumes of water to the above cities. Because of that, the existing water supply in the cities of Alchevsk, Perevalsk, Anthracite and Krasnyi Luch had to be reduced by 50%."

21 Dec. JCCC: Ukraine fired mortars on the Volvo center area (the northern suburb of Donetsk). 8 ceasefire violations in the past day, 134 munitions fired (including mortars, BMP and BTR guns, grenade launchers and firearms including large caliber machine guns).

Video of an ambulance car (barely) crossing over restored bridge in Stanitsa Luganskaya. LPR complains that the bridge is narrower than the agreed 3m+.

20 Dec. Basurin, DPR: 46 ceasefire violations in the past week, 456 shells fired (including mortar, BMP gun shells, 122-mm artillery, and grenades).

The Swiss company Allseas suspends work on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline after the US Senate approves sanctions on the company. Spending bill including sanctions is signed by Trump (CNN; TASS).

It is said that Russia and Ukraine reached a compromise on continuation of gas transfer at a closed-door meeting in Minsk. Details of the agreement so far are not public. Previously it was [https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4204439? reported] that Ukrainian unpaid sovereign debt of $3 bln and some fine on Gazprom of net total of about $2.56 bln (the latter of uncertain merit but with both charges confirmed in Western courts) are being discussed.

TASS quoting Miller: Gazprom and Naftogas agreed a protocol according to which they will sign a contract on gas deliveries for 5 years, with Gazprom paying $2.9 bln. following Stockholm court decision, and the parties will withdraw all other mutual claims. There is no update on the sovereign debt of Ukraine. TASS: Since 2009, two contracts have been in force between Gazprom and Naftogaz - on gas supplies to Ukraine and on its transit through the country to Europe. Both expire at the end of 2019. Since 2012, Naftogaz has ceased to pump in the contracted volume, and since November 2015, Kiev has not purchased Russian gas at all, replacing it with reverse gas from Europe. Gazprom, in turn, did not pump the agreed volume of gas through Ukraine. In 2014, companies began litigation on both contracts.

Unverified protocol copy is [https://vk.com/wall-70903182_195823? published] on a social media site

16 Dec. Ukrainian military fired 42 122-mm artillery shells on the area of Naberezhnoe settlment, south of Donetsk (amid unending reports of Ukrainian mortar and small arms shelling).

14 Dec. DPR soldier is killed by Ukrainian shelling of Gorlovka

10 Dec. Putin comments that if Ukraine gets control of the border, it may result in 'another Srebrenitsa ' (massacre) committed by Ukrainian nationalists, as it is not clear 'who is stronger', Zelensky or them (Rus; Eng-but presently QA part not translated). While at a press conference after the Normandy meeting, Putin's answer on border control was based on Minsk agreement as written.

Russian journo report on some small details observed at the Normandy-4 meeting is not particularly encouraging.

9 Dec. Putin-Zelenskiy two way meeting is confirmed after the Normandy 4-way meeting today. (TASS, Babel.net).

Unending Ukrainian provocations in Donbass are reported in the run-up to the summit. This includes death of two SBU 'Alpha' colonels who were part of a 4 men RSG, trying to penetrate DPR positions and killed by landmine explosion (details to be linked later). 1 Dec. Strelkov published on social media a list of 14 men killed defending L/DPR in November.

Two DPR soldiers were killed by "Azov" sniper fire, trying to evacuate a wounded comrade. It is said that 3 "Azov" men were killed and 2 wounded by return fire.

30 Nov. DPR soldier is killed by Ukrainian shelling, despite the supposed ceasefire.

29 Nov. DPR People's Council adopted a law "on DPR state border" which defines DPR territory as the whole Donetsk region as of 2014. Presently over half of that region is under Ukrainian control. According to Council's chairman Vladimir Bidevka, till the settlment of conflict with Ukraine the border will be the separation line and with this it does not contradict Minsk agreements. Pro-Russian segment commentary on those developments differ, from skeptical to cheerful. It is unclear whether those developments are more than declaratory + aimed to steer negotiations back into Minsk format. It is said that Ukrainian reaction includes thereatetning to bring the troops back to separation areas and to allow use of aviation. Official Russia's commentary is not presently available.

28 Nov. Russian photog Valerii Melnikov won second place in Sakharov center documentary photos competition with photos from the conflict zone in Donbass. His 15 photos here. 22 Nov. DPR PMHQ (Basurin): 72 ceasefire violations by Ukraine in the past week, including 17 152-mm artillery shells, 67 mortar shells and 228 grenades of various types

Photo report: DPR forces remove trenches in the area of pilot separation of forces near Petrovskoe. Ukrainian forces said to do the same (1, 2).

21 Nov. Dilyana Gaytandzhieva: Serbian arms trafficked to Ukraine: evidence of mortars used against Donbass (+ Cassad).

13 Nov. The New York Times publishes a summary of an interview with Igor Kolomoiski in which he accuses the US of forcing Ukraine to be at war with Russia and says that it is time for Ukraine to return into the Russian orbit because contrary to "the West", they are genuinely interested in working together. (Those comments are very different from those back in 2014 or so; however Russian commentators on the patriotic side of the divide point out the monetary self-interest and an intent to go with the highest bidder).

9 Nov. LPR. Ukrainian easel anti-tank grenade launcher fire on Nizhenee Lozovoe is reported. A LPR soldier is killed.

Separation of forces started in Petrovskoe

8 Nov. DPR: three DPR soldiers are killed by Ukrainian shelling.

6 Nov. A DPR soldier is killed by Ukrainian fire on Leninskoe settlement in the south.

With the next round of forces separation approaching, DPR renewed warning on possible sabotage of chemical plants, in order to blame DPR and prevent troops withdrawals.

Premiere of documentary film "Remember Odessa", by German film director Wilhelm Domke-Schulz -interviews and fragments (Rus.), (Germ.). 2 Nov. Strelkov published on social media names of 17 men killed in Donbass on the pro-Russian side in October, 2019 (one of those died of a heart attack in custody).

UN data: 3330 civilians killed, up to 9000 wounded, 1.3 mln internally displaced, 3.5 mln need assistance and protection; 427 km 'contact line'. ''Above all, people want peace. #5YearsNoMore.'' (Eng), (Rus.)

1 Nov. A civilian man is wounded by Ukrainian shelling of Spartak settlement, north of Donetsk.

Vladimir Tsemakh is interviewed, talking about himself and his kidnapping by Ukraine. He is not asked and does not directly adress the MH17, apart from telling that (3:35) the anti-aircraft detachment consisted of two MANPADS and two "Zushka's" (ZU-23), and that he did nothing to blame for (describing his participation in opolchenie in 2014). He left opolchenie in 2017 due to his past injuries (4:02) and was not in active service at the time of his kidnapping. He says that he learned about MH17 'as everybody else' in the evening or may be the next morning (3:45). While in Ukrainian custody, he was threatened with life imprisonment, offered (12:26) a witness protection scheme, "a citizenship" (apparently Dutch), and a house in Holland. He turned down those offers. Russian-speaking police reps from Holland and Australia were present from time to time during his interrogations. The Ukrainian investigation is still not closed.

31 Oct. A DPR soldier is killed by Ukrainian shelling of Lozovoe settlement

29 Oct. Pilot separation of forces has started in Zolotoe, expected to take 3 days.

Zelenskii commented on 3 stages of ending the conflict, stopping the 'hot' phase, reconcilliation, reintegration (but none of the above on the ground, at this point).

Apparent PR efforts in Russia to discredit Strelkov is observed.

28 Oct. It is said that after Zelenskii visit to nationalist volunteers and rather intense and much discussed conversations with some of them by the camp fire, volunteers removed their weapons from Zolotoe settlement, a place of pilot disengagement of forces. Zelenskii has stated that otherwise they will 'go in', that is remove weapons by force. Zelenskii also tried to lead discussion to the conclusiong that negotiation with Putin is needed, and that Ukrainian-imposed blockade, as well as the war itself, is harmful to Ukrainian economy. Local residents were present (older age women), saying that they live in a war zone for 5 years and all they want at this point is peace. Nationalists were arguing for a strong hand approach, at best. (A version of video here)

18 Oct. Some change of rhetoric is observed in Ukraine reporting. DPR report on yet another Ukrainian shelling of the usual hot-spots (Gorlovka, villages near Mariupol, and elsewhere) is commented as 'actions of Ukrainian occupiers will not be left unpunished', followed by a more customary appeal to international observers to take appropriate measures. An op-ed by a journalist Eva Lysovskaya is published by Rusvesna, saying (quite obviously, but rarely made explicit) that Russia's patience is not unlimited and that Abkhazia- style scenario, with the official recognition and Russian peacekeepers ensuring order is possible to. This is not coming from an official source, but could be indicative. Similarly on Ukrainian side there are statements of the sort that they are making 'the last' earnest attempt to follow Minsk -- after threats from Ukrainian nationalists following acceptance of the "Steinmeier formula", backtracking on separation of forces, and no end in shelling, resulting in destruction and casualties.

Blogger Donetskii: "Cunning plan of Zelensky", for a counterpoint, and in response to a telegram post.

16 Oct. Ukraine shelled Gorlovka yet again. Mayor of Gorlovka Prikhodko: T. Golovina, a 61-year old woman, got skin-deep wounds.

11 Oct. Ukrainegate is driving the United States to a state of a permanent coup and possibly into civil war.

Former US Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch deposition confirms an approach based on US self-interests, not on stopping killings and war crimes, promoting peace, or well-being of the Ukrainian people. It stresses Ukrainian "inviolate borders" but does not extend "the right to determine their own destiny" to people of Donbass and other pro-Russia regions; such right appears limited to those who supported Euromaidan in 2014. The conflict in Donbass is portrayed as "Russian expansionism", which is convenient but does not accurately reflect the overall situation. It is quite clear that Yovanovitch was not pushing for expressed by Trump wish that Russia and Ukraine get together and solve their problems. The departure of this Russian-speaking yet anti-Russian lady is not much regretted here (maybe the next appointee will do more, or at least not less, for peace). As for American-leveled displeasures, see here (this mentions an unconfirmed claim by Lev Parnas of her taped conversation with disparaging comments on Trump, Guliani's comment on her 'being in the pocket of Soros', and other such stuff which does not matter much here).

Lev Parnas and Igor Furman, Soviet-born US citizens and "Guliani's fixers on Ukraine", has been arrested on campaign finance violations charges, and it is said that Guliani himself is under a criminal investigation. Guliani responded to CNN here.

10 Oct. A civilian man, 64 yrs old, is seriously wounded by Ukrainian mortar shelling in Zaitsevo settlement (Prihodko 1, 2; Rusvesna).

4 Oct. DPR ombudsman: in the past week, 3 DPR soldiers were killed, 4 people (1 soldier and 3 civilian men) were wounded. DPR PMH: in the past week, 17 residential homes were damaged or destroyed.

1 Oct. It is reported that Ukraine finally agreed to the "Steinmeier formula", which it opposed for a long time. The formula is yet to be implemented in the law on the special status for Donbass

Highlights from the past
30 Apr. U.S. Confirms Delivery Of Javelin Antitank Missiles To Ukraine

Poroshenko announced end of ATO and start of 'joint operation of armed forces', which is aimed at 'defending territorial integrity' and will only end 'when the last piece of Ukrainian land is liberated, including Crimea', which is somehow supposed to happen by 'political-diplomatic means'.

Videos

 * Family of 7 home hit by shelling in Donetsk, published 11 May 2017
 * DPR Sakhanka: life goes on under shelling, 11 Oct. 2016
 * 'Suburbia of life', about the effect of the war on life in small villages and towns. Shelling, destruction, economic hardship. Slow running, in Russian. Sept. 29, 2016.

More videos on talk page

Photos

 * Recent history in a nutshell in those photos to the right:


 * Aftermaths of Ukrainian shelling of the village Zheltoe (Yellow), LPR, 29 Nov. 2016 lug-info.

OSCE

 * SMM Ukraine

Official Ukrainian sources

 * ATO press releases and maps, Ukraine Crisis Media Center(google search; sample schedule search).
 * At about 30 April 2018, replaced by Ukrainian 'joint forces operation' (Facebook).
 * Official website of Ukrainian president
 * National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine
 * Verhovna Rada

Ukrainian media

 * Newsone.ua
 * Strana.ua
 * 112.ua
 * TSN
 * inter.ua
 * kyivpost.com
 * dumskaya.net (Odessa, pro goverment)

DPR and LPR

 * DPR: DAN news (Eng).; DPR MOD, Russ.; DPR ombudsman, Russ.
 * DPR MoD
 * LPR: lug-info (Eng).
 * Donbass international news agency, DoNi news (Eng.)

Agreements

 * 22.7.15 Under-100 mm weapons withdrawal was agreed Poroshenko statement: ' I hope it will be the real beginning of the ceasefire'.
 * 12.2.15 Two documents were agreed: on measures on implementing Minsk protocol (English language PDF here).