Talk:Alleged Chemical Attack Khan Sheikhoun 4 April 2017

Initial Story
Maybe the incident was today? 4 April? Need confirmation. I assumed it was yesterday because of the quantity of images and media dissemination in essentially only a couple of hours. I just saw one report of an ambulance service driving from Idlib at 06:30 local time --Charles Wood (talk) 10:56, 4 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Low sunlight in some photos suggests it's near sunset on the 3rd or sunrise on the 4th. Whatever is specified - if the date's wrong, probably worth an earlt move to new page, but no panic. We'll figure it out soon. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:38, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

Reports on Twitter show images branded with White Helmets / Syrian Civil Defence logo. The images are obviously screenshots of video. Images appear to show predominately youths and infants dead. There are also images of WH personnel spraying bodies (alive or dead?) with water.

Symptoms are consistent with Sarin in that there is profuse white foam on the mouths of some victims. However there is no sign of incontinence or vomit - most victims are in their underwear so it would be obvious.

More images at Twitter Thomas Van Linge However he is not a primary source and is repeating images provided ultimately by the White Helmets. --Charles Wood (talk) 08:27, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

More tweets: Thomas Van Linge: local sources are now reporting 70 dead and 500 affected by the chemical attack on Khan Shaykhun

Thomas Van Linge: Video(18+): 43 children that have suffocated to death in alleged chemical attack targeting civilians in #Idlib

AEJKhalil: DEATH TOLL RISES TO 70 MARTYRS SO FAR, 200 WOUNDED #RUSSIA/#ASSAD TERRORISTS SARIN GAS ATTAK

AEJKhalil: (photos, noting mostly children)

https://twitter.com/AEJKhalil/status/849143681110114304 AEJKhalil:] (bearded man with foam that's perhaps too white and too copious to be genuine) --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:37, 4 April 2017 (UTC) link title

Death Toll
... (currently reported at 70, and perhaps rising) ...

... Now 100+ and 400 injured ...

In Context
At 70 and perhaps still rising, this would be the third largest alleged death toll from an alleged CW attack in Syria so far. For reference:
 * 1) 21 August, 2013, Ghouta, Damascus: regime sarin rockets blamed, min 420, max 1,429 killed
 * 2)  12 December, 2016, near Uqrabiyat, Hama: reported 93 or more killed, Russian sarin bombs are blamed
 * 3) 30 March 2017, Latamina, Hama Chemical Weapons Attack in Latamneh, Hama Injures 70. The source is UOSSM. More links on HDBG's twitter feed, including a video showing miosis and a link to a report in which a doctor attributes the attack to "organic phosphorus". Possible motive is to draw US into supporting a safe zone in NW Syria  --Pmr9 (talk) 12:43, 4 April 2017 (UTC)
 * 4) this - likely to be the same story as above.

No one much heard of the December incident, but it might rise again now as 'a shamefully-ignored precedent'. That was in 3 towns in rural Hama run by ISIS. Russian bombing, probably with sarin, was blamed. Now that it's in the turf of the overtly foreign-supported Islamists, the claim has a much, much higher chance of serious and even sustained media coverage (people care, or are supposed to care, just as little about ISIS claims as they do about Syrian government claims)

Also for context on how the rebels encounter these high death tolls in these top 3 cases:
 * 1) evidence suggests it was hostages killed in gas chambers with a variety of non-sarin chemicals, sometimes finished off with neck wounds)
 * 2) evidence is extremely sparse, so the picture isn't clear, but it seems likely to be the same kind of scenario
 * 3) evidence is fairly copious, likely to yield some good clues (that may reflect back on the above precedent case) --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:24, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

Head Wounds
Fainting is reported, and some people will bonk their heads on something when that happens. Charles mentioned this first I think, but I agree there are too many and too severe wounds on the heads (and maybe necks) of these children.

Suggested pattern: children are killed by blows to the head, while fighting age males (13 and up) have their throats sliced. Strange reluctance of Islamists to go ahead and use CWs when they're alleging it, or failure to do it right, requiring some finishing work. All things we've seen before. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:50, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Taken to the Monitor already

Timing
It's worth noting this attack - blamed on Syria or Russia (unclear so far) comes just as news broke of an apparent terrorist bombing in St. Petersburg (exact timing not clear yet) - the two events possibly help explain each other - Russia getting its fair retribution, or maybe taking unfair revenge ... and then likely not. It's a thought. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:56, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Checked location - and the province it is in, barely in Idlib, to not look as dumb as the Pentagon. ;o) It is there up center north to see on the Hama frontline image, but it's a good chunk away from the frontlines, savely hidden behind "rebel" stronghold Morek/Mork. This comes as their annual Hama offensive has turned out to be another desaster, and as Peto Lucem wrote as description to the latest map, they lost 85% of their temporal gains. Loss of fighters seems to be massive, as the SAA by now knows how to let them come and then greet them in open field.
 * At this point the mad butcher Assad decides to draw a little attention to this by slaughtering some innocent kids - how typical of him! --CE (talk) 11:19, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Clearly the local battlefield timing is probably more relevant. Obvious revenge for the recent offensive, taken out on random innocents with something pointless and criminal. Seen that before. But if this comes out as a big bad Russian sarin attack, then that Russia connection will also stand out as likely. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:35, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Another thought, there was the third batch of green bus rides from al-Waer to Idlib on April 1, several hundred "rebels" with families. I could imagine Khan Sheikhoun would be one of the nearest "safe" spots in Idlib province to drop them when you start from Homs, and it's directly at the M5 motorway. Possible victim group of "traitors" who had surrendered to the regime? --CE (talk) 11:55, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

Actually we do not even know when the Ghouta CW attack happened. There was a coordinated release of videos. They could have been filmed weeks earlier. We never saw any sign of the funerals or the grave sites. The same here, the coordinated release could have been prepared for days or weeks. One source hinted this already happened 5 days ago. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 14:25, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

Orient TV reporter Firas Karam tweets at 0:06 am GMT on April 4, 2017 (mirror) Translated by Within Syria‏. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 19:07, 4 April 2017 (UTC)
 * ''"tomorrow we are launching a media campaign to cover the airstrikes on Hama country side including the usage of CW"

Location
Just out, a piece by Leith Fadel about civilians, who were kidnapped in Khattab (the closest to Hama the offensive went) on the weekend before the army took it back, and "all taken to Khan Sheikhoun". Number unknown, allegedly reported by a family member. No connection to this event alleged (by Leith). --CE (talk) 13:17, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Yes, this has the signs of hostage massacre. Typically in history rebels and other less civilized combatants have killed their hostages right before they have been forced to retreat from a town. Were the people killed in their home towns or where they transported before the massacre. Maybe the adults had been killed earlier and the children moved to Khan Sheikhoun. But why kill them now? Revenge? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 14:25, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Antonopoulos has now written that it had been around 250 people kidnapped, from Khattab and Majdal, and that "local sources" claim to have identified some from the dead. He also points out that on the video material there are openings seen carved into rock. A "missile factory" with enough room to host 250 hostages and maybe stocks of some chemical junk material? Maybe worth to take a look on the map. Later. --CE (talk) 14:40, 4 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Yes, the location of the White Helmets base must be the Al-Lataminah cave compound just south of Al-Lataminah. It was bombed by Russia on the first day of their campaign. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 17:25, 4 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Lataminah is about eight kilometers south-west of Khan Sheikhoun, I don't think the SAA would be confusing them. The thesis that it happened and was filmed earlier is interesting, though. FWIW, here's a marker on wikimapia in Khan Sheikhoun which is eight years old, on something that could be a small rocky formation, with the first comment reading autotranslated "Ohla Abu Yahya .. King of Khan Sheikun and neighboring areas, we forget the sweet days in the university city and the moments of land bread and the voice of the breads of the bread from the decks like Grad missiles atmosphere". --CE (talk) 19:02, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

The photo linked by Petri, taken by Ammar Abdullah for Reuters and reproduced in the Guardian, shows that this is some kind of quarry with passages in the rock wall. Whether this is the Lataminah compound I'm not able to judge, but it doesn't make any sense for the children to be in a place like this unless they were captives: it's not where their homes were, and it's not a hospital. I think serious consideration should be given to Petri's suggestion that the massacre was carried out on 30 March in Lataminah, reported by UOSSM at the time as causing 70 casualties but no fatalities, and that the videos recorded on that day were uploaded today as showing a chemical attack in Khan Sheikhoun. Are there any videos of the 30 March attack? Pmr9 (talk) 18:31, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * If you look at the old videos you will see that the cave compound was also a field hospital. On the Guardian photo you see two ambulances. I think this cave is a White Helmets compound. (This does not exclude it being a al-Qaeda compound at the same time.) -- 18:53, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

Some shady "doctors" (and Mohammed Alloush) in this twitter thread linked in the Antonopoulos article. Connections? --CE (talk) 18:44, 4 April 2017 (UTC)