Talk:Alleged Chemical Attack Khan Sheikhoun 4 April 2017

Initial Story
Maybe the incident was today? 4 April? Need confirmation. I assumed it was yesterday because of the quantity of images and media dissemination in essentially only a couple of hours. I just saw one report of an ambulance service driving from Idlib at 06:30 local time --Charles Wood (talk) 10:56, 4 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Low sunlight in some photos suggests it's near sunset on the 3rd or sunrise on the 4th. Whatever is specified - if the date's wrong, probably worth an early move to new page, but no panic. We'll figure it out soon. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:38, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * This NY Times Report says the attack occurred at dawn on 4 April 2017. Another report I saw had a private ambulance service start driving to the scene from Idlib at 06:30. Sunrise in the area is 06:17 and it's starting to get light 30 minutes before say 05:47. One consequence is the victims especially children should be in night clothing. --Charles Wood (talk) 20:31, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

Reports on Twitter show images branded with White Helmets / Syrian Civil Defence logo. The images are obviously screenshots of video. Images appear to show predominately youths and infants dead. There are also images of WH personnel spraying bodies (alive or dead?) with water.

Symptoms are consistent with Sarin in that there is profuse white foam on the mouths of some victims. However there is no sign of incontinence or vomit - most victims are in their underwear so it would be obvious.

More images at Twitter Thomas Van Linge However he is not a primary source and is repeating images provided ultimately by the White Helmets. --Charles Wood (talk) 08:27, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

More tweets: --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:37, 4 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Thomas Van Linge: local sources are now reporting 70 dead and 500 affected by the chemical attack on Khan Shaykhun
 * Thomas Van Linge: Video(18+): 43 children that have suffocated to death in alleged chemical attack targeting civilians in #Idlib
 * AEJKhalil: DEATH TOLL RISES TO 70 MARTYRS SO FAR, 200 WOUNDED #RUSSIA/#ASSAD TERRORISTS SARIN GAS ATTAK
 * AEJKhalil: (photos, noting mostly children)
 * AEJKhalil: (bearded man with foam that's perhaps too white and too copious to be genuine)

Death Toll
... (currently reported at 70, and perhaps rising) ... ... Now 100+ and 400 injured ... ... (earlier it was dozens, 38, 54, etc.) ...


 * The SOHR cites at least 72 dead, including at least 20 children. (tweet - tweet)


 * The UOSSM cites over 100 (twet - tweet)


 * The VDC so far lists 69 killed including 69 civilians and zero rebel fighters. 27 men, 16 boys, 19 women, 7 girls. There are 19 named Yousef (9 men, 4 boys, 5 women, one girl), 8 named Qadah, 5 named Khaled, etc. It says most from Khan Sheikhoun, several from Morek, Marzaf, Latamna, blank. None is listed as from Khattab.
 * The Yousefs should normally have other women attached, with their fathers' names as usual for observant Muslims. Five women to eight men (and one girl, and just 4 boys) is just high enough to wonder if these are married couples. That would suggest Christians, or at least secular-leaning "modern" people. In fact VDC says Malak Turky al-Yousef is married to Nihad Alyousef, but Safia is Wife of Najeeb al-Jawhar, and the others are marital status unknown. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:23, 5 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Later on, VDC lists 79. 8 men were added, 1 boy, 1 girl. Still 19 Yousefs. They're not done counting, and even when they are, they often stop short of the largest (and sometimes most likely) tallies (see the Dec. 12 sarin attack) --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:57, 6 April 2017 (UTC)
 * 92 now, and I suspect the final tally is over 100 like they said. How much over remains unclear. --Caustic Logic (talk) 03:33, 9 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Some reports say 43 children were killed, suggesting an overall death toll more in the 100+ range. I'm sure rebels could scrape up at least that for something important enough. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:23, 5 April 2017 (UTC)

In Context
At 70 and perhaps still rising, this would be the third largest alleged death toll from an alleged CW attack in Syria so far. For reference:
 * 1) 21 August, 2013, Ghouta, Damascus: regime sarin rockets blamed, min 420, max 1,429 killed
 * 2)  12 December, 2016, near Uqrabiyat, Hama: reported 93 or more killed, Russian sarin bombs are blamed
 * 3) this - likely to be the same story as above.


 * At 100+ it'll be #2, but that's how I made the list. The April 2014 JaN attack in Nawa, Deraa, killed about 70 soldiers and almost belongs. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:32, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

No one much heard of the December incident, but it might rise again now as 'a shamefully-ignored precedent'. That was in 3 towns in rural Hama run by ISIS. Russian bombing, probably with sarin, was blamed. Now that it's in the turf of the overtly foreign-supported Islamists, the claim has a much, much higher chance of serious and even sustained media coverage (people care, or are supposed to care, just as little about ISIS claims as they do about Syrian government claims)

Also for context on how the rebels encounter these high death tolls in these top 3 cases:
 * 1) evidence suggests it was hostages killed in gas chambers with a variety of non-sarin chemicals, sometimes finished off with neck wounds)
 * 2) evidence is extremely sparse, so the picture isn't clear, but it seems likely to be the same kind of scenario
 * 3) evidence is fairly copious, likely to yield some good clues (that may reflect back on the above precedent case) --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:24, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

Preceding Reports
30 March 2017, Latamina, Hama Chemical Weapons Attack in Latamneh, Hama Injures 70. The source is UOSSM. More links on HDBG's twitter feed, including a video showing miosis and a link to a report in which a doctor attributes the attack to "organic phosphorus". Possible motive is to draw US into supporting a safe zone in NW Syria --Pmr9 (talk) 12:43, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Ok, that's odd. March 25 was the chlorine attack that killed Dr. Darwish at the cave hospital. I think that's Dr. Islams' video on that day where he said chlorine, but then said in the tweet they thought it was sarin. Or was that from March 30? Then March 30 and mixed claims including sarin signs and chlorine reports - and now sarin overtly claimed ... I guess the regime trying to sneak it back in under cover of their "accepted" chlorine use? Wouldn't that just shame us all for our silence? --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:30, 5 April 2017 (UTC)

Head Wounds
Fainting is reported, and some people will bonk their heads on something when that happens. Charles mentioned this first I think, but I agree there are too many and too severe wounds on the heads (and maybe necks) of these children.

Suggested pattern: children are killed by blows to the head, while fighting age males (13 and up) have their throats sliced. Strange reluctance of Islamists to go ahead and use CWs when they're alleging it, or failure to do it right, requiring some finishing work. All things we've seen before. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:50, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Taken to the Monitor already

That bright red blood of two of the kids essentially proves that those kids did not die from sarin. Looks like the little girl was still bleeding when they laid her down on the stone-pavement. Looks like the boy at the top had his L ear to the pavement first, blood ran from his nose, and then he turned his head and the blood ran the other way. The odd way his neck is wrapped is suspicious.

Also, that may be a syringe lying across the seam at the top of the image. I’ve tried to enhance it, but it doesn’t help much. Can't figure out how to add images to this comment.

The face of the child second from the top is weird. Noseless. Bruise under R eye. Not sure where shadow stops and skin begins, but magnifying the face makes it even more weird. The cast shadow from the head doesn't seem to match the head. Pierpont (talk) 18:51, 6 April 2017 (UTC)


 * That seems to be a syringe, FWIW. Before going further, here's the graphic I made numbering them in a roated view, matched to the other video.

Using those numbers, I doubt the top kid #5 has a neck injury as well, but it is tightly covered. #4 has a nose, it's just washed out above. There must be an invisible curl of hair to explain the shadow. Don't know if it's a bruise per se, but dark hollows under the eyes. As for the older boy #3, his neck wound might seem debatable, especially when it doesn't appear in the match image. But I propose it doesn't run across, just on the left side (our right), and it's invisible with his chin tucked into his shoulder like that. But confirmation is there: enhancement clarifies the blue blanket under his neck isn't blue like it is between the other boys, but red-brown with lots of spilled blood. --Caustic Logic (talk) 06:17, 10 April 2017 (UTC)

Timing
It's worth noting this attack - blamed on Syria or Russia (unclear so far) comes just as news broke of an apparent terrorist bombing in St. Petersburg (exact timing not clear yet) - the two events possibly help explain each other - Russia getting its fair retribution, or maybe taking unfair revenge ... and then likely not. It's a thought. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:56, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Checked location - and the province it is in, barely in Idlib, to not look as dumb as the Pentagon. ;o) It is there up center north to see on the Hama frontline image, but it's a good chunk away from the frontlines, savely hidden behind "rebel" stronghold Morek/Mork. This comes as their annual Hama offensive has turned out to be another desaster, and as Peto Lucem wrote as description to the latest map, they lost 85% of their temporal gains. Loss of fighters seems to be massive, as the SAA by now knows how to let them come and then greet them in open field.
 * At this point the mad butcher Assad decides to draw a little attention to this by slaughtering some innocent kids - how typical of him! --CE (talk) 11:19, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Clearly the local battlefield timing is probably more relevant. Obvious revenge for the recent offensive, taken out on random innocents with something pointless and criminal. Seen that before. But if this comes out as a big bad Russian sarin attack, then that Russia connection will also stand out as likely. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:35, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Another thought, there was the third batch of green bus rides from al-Waer to Idlib on April 1, several hundred "rebels" with families. I could imagine Khan Sheikhoun would be one of the nearest "safe" spots in Idlib province to drop them when you start from Homs, and it's directly at the M5 motorway. Possible victim group of "traitors" who had surrendered to the regime? --CE (talk) 11:55, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

Actually we do not even know when the Ghouta CW attack happened. There was a coordinated release of videos. They could have been filmed weeks earlier. We never saw any sign of the funerals or the grave sites. The same here, the coordinated release could have been prepared for days or weeks. One source hinted this already happened 5 days ago. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 14:25, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

Orient TV reporter Firas Karam tweets at 0:06 am GMT on April 4, 2017 (mirror) Translated by Within Syria‏. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 19:07, 4 April 2017 (UTC)
 * ''"tomorrow we are launching a media campaign to cover the airstrikes on Hama country side including the usage of CW"
 * No, I think that refers to a second Latamna chlorine attack after the one they say killed Dr. Darwish. It's not far away though. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:34, 4 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Or... it was at the time, and now maybe it's this event, as discussed below ... (catching up) --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:37, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

All 10 rebel news agencies say this happened on April 4th, most with their own video. Half the world's media say this happened on April 4th. The White Helmets cave complex was bombed and partly destroyed on April 4th. Could all this happen on the same day? This is not the Al-Lataminah cave compound. If the stone wall is facing south, then the gas victims are seen 8 am in the morning, the bombed out building is shown around 5 pm. This video of the bombing is uploaded at 13:26:39 UTC, so it breaks the timeline. The Russian MoD says that the Syrian Airforce bombed an "ammunition dump containing chemical weapons" east of the town of Khan Sheikhoun. There is a stone quarry 1.5 km east of Khan Sheikhoun that could maybe be the White Helmets site. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:21, 5 April 2017 (UTC)

Video of purported bomb strikes on Khan Sheikhoun uploaded 04:59 am UTC 4 Apr 2107. Local time 07:59 am. Sunrise at location is 06:14. This indicates that if image is as stated and it was uploaded on the same day the incident occurred, the strikes occurred some time between 06:14am and say 07:30am.

Russian statement also refers to strikes between 11:30am and 12:30pm local time, so a second series of strikes seems likely.


 * Further statements about the first attack put it at 06:30 local time - which is not implausible given the sun angle. --Charles Wood (talk) 21:00, 5 April 2017 (UTC)

The morning strikes are conventional ANFO bombs of the type used by SyAAF. These are not at all suitable to deliver a nerve-gas payload. --Charles Wood (talk) 20:18, 5 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Trying to time a non-event that did not happen is like asking how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?
 * Anyway, this video from the White Helmets compound seems to be the earliest. It is filmed just after sunrise. The upload by the White Helmets is not the original. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:56, 5 April 2017 (UTC)


 * That upload time is 09:14 local time so 2:45 after potential gas exposure. However as you note, this is recycled video and there are upload delays, so its closer to 06:30 - say 07:00? --Charles Wood (talk) 03:07, 6 April 2017 (UTC)

My impression is that Russia and Syria government report on what they have available, that there was an attack by their side in the afternoon. Knowing that chemical attack was reported in social media, they conjecture that rebel chemical weap. storage was hit. If chemical incident was definitely earlier, that may still be that it was provocation by the rebels (and rebels would benefit more, by far) --Resup (talk) 06:15, 6 April 2017 (UTC)

Avigdor Lieberman: ''the two murderous chemical weapons attacks on civilians in the Idlib region in Syria and on the local hospital were carried out by direct and premeditated order of Syrian President Bashar Assad, with Syrian planes. I say this with 100 percent certainty. The cruelest thing...is that those who were evacuated from the area of the bombing to the hospital were attacked a second time with chemical weapons as Syrian army planes bombed the hospital''. To the question of whether Israel needs to respond to occurrences in Syria, the Defense Minister responded: “why do we need to do it ourselves? It’s the responsibility of the international community. I'm not ready for Israel to be the dick that the whole world pisses through. The world needs to take responsibility and, instead of just talking, needs to do something.”(source)

We are told that attacks were at 6:37 and 6:46 am. Not being a specialist, I understand that sarin symptoms develop within minutes, and those alive within several hours had low dose and likely survive (e.g.here). Evacuations at dawn hours will likely take more than several minutes and people would arrive to treatment in pretty bad shape; apparently 'bombing a hospital' is matching quite freshly exposed people we seem to see on videos. However, one of those videos (selected at random) shows shadows at about 1.5, below 2, of the height. That is roughly after 8.30 am, and not close to 6:46  am with 1 to 11 shadows. That much later after exposure, it's strange (though not impossible,--wind and stuff) that those people seem to  develop distress right in front of our eyes, as if it just happened and they are urgently treated. Back to Libermann, wondering what's the grounds of 100% certainty. As DM he may know exactly where the planes were, when, and that they dropped something; but for the rest, it is coming from social media, and he may not see much more than what we do. Just to make sure, I am no fan of the regime or the backers, but this by itself is not sufficient for a genuine 100 % certainty; while unjustified accusations/actions likely will not accomplish much in practice and moreover, play their hand, instead.--Resup (talk) 23:49, 8 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Agreed in general. The scenes at the hospital almost seem too late, tending to 7:30 - 8:00 and later, by sun (all app.) The symptoms seem mixed and largely fake, to me. One guy seems to get worse suddenly as the camera draws near, etc. (same guy is gulping for air like a fish, which is realistic, but with his mouth closed, which makes no sense (maybe to keep the "foam" in until the good camera arrived? see the early vid, first seconds - it's the same guy seen with mass foam in a quality photo from later, when the sun had broken across his face). Sarin moves very quick - in a few seconds you know how bad it is - the body breaks it down very quick and it kills quick - it's a race in microseconds - if you survive the first 30 seconds you'll probably survive, and if not... (something to that effect, I'm not sure on exact times - it could be minutes, but not tens of minutes) So I don't buy people trucked to this place, laying in the mud and wiggling an hour or so later. Besides, they all have clean underwear, little or no cyanosis, etc. I don't think the place was gassed or they were gassed here, with sarin. Maybe gassed with something else longer-acting, and a number of fakers. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:53, 11 April 2017 (UTC)


 * In re: Resup and the ratio of shadow length to object length (S/O). Does anyone have a link to an app where you can input date, location, S/O and get time of day? I believe I have seen a website that does that.Pierpont (talk) 14:17, 11 April 2017 (UTC)


 * In re: CL and sarin timing. Yeah, here's the interesting thing: people exposed to sarin run out of O2 (anoxic) b/c their breathing muscles are paralyzed. So by the time the brain realizes it's in trouble, it's too late to gasp, or gag, or cough, or scream, or try to suck more air because all of those things require the same paralyzed muscles that caused the anoxia. So when you see WH vids of people dramatically gasping for air, the WHs are kindly providing evidence that sarin was not the cause. It's a part of their public service to Syria and internet sleuths everywhere.Pierpont (talk) 14:17, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

April 3 chlorine attack on al-Lataminah
White helmets were reporting of a chlorine attack on Khan Sheikhoun already on the evening of April 3. The victims seem to have been taken to the White Helmets cave complex in Khan Sheikhoun. The photograph published by All4Syria is from the same treatment room where the April 4th victims are later seen. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 08:04, 13 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Dozens of cases of suffocation with chlorine gas in a rural Hama and Idlib - All4Syria, April 3, 2017 (عشرات حالات الاختناق بغاز الكلور في ريفي حماة وإدلب)
 * ''Dozens of civilians, including children, suffered from suffocation on Monday, April 3, following inhalation of toxic chlorine gas which is delivered by regime helicopter aircraft on the city of Al-Lataminah in north Hama and the town al Habit in the southern countryside of Idlib.

First signs of chemical exposure
I finally watched through my playlist. There is no sighn of anything happening in Khan Sheikhoun before 10 am. The first video is uploaded by Assi Press Center at 06:33:22 UTC. It is is typical massacre porn, that avoids showing any context. Dead children in a pickup truck. For all we know this could be from Ghouta in 2013. Other early videos show alleged events at hospitals. This video is filmed outside, but the shadows are already quite short. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 11:41, 10 April 2017 (UTC)
 * I tried an Arabic Twitter search for Khan Sheikhoun and found at least these two:

I suspect it is a little slow, for some reason, taking about an hour before anyone hears about it. But, that's not very long, so it'll be debatable. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:12, 11 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Under the chemical bombardment Allah suffices us and Yes, the agent - Apr 3 9:22 pm = 4:22am on the 4th UTC = 7:22am Syria
 * Another at 9:34 = 7:34.

Hospital Attack Time
US military says A jet was overhead Khan Sheikhoun at 0337z and 0346z. Add 2 hours for local time, you get 5:37 and 5:46 am. DST might add to the, making it 6:37 and 6:46. Rebels say attack is around 6 am - video suggests low sunlight and cold air, which means early morning, as victims are displayed - but Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem "said the government's first strike happened at 11:30 a.m., about five hours after reports of the chemical attack emerged." (CNN)

CNN also notes Moallem says that hit a chemical weapons depot fro al-Nusra front, and how "Russia said that the deaths were caused by the Syrian regime strike on the munitions depot. But several chemical weapons experts dismissed Russia's claims as "chemically impossible" and "laughable."" And, unless we reject Syria's claim as to when, the sunlight angle and cold air show the people were dead hours earlier than that (that's also presuming same day) --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:12, 9 April 2017 (UTC)


 * So, by the Trump admin. story, all bombing was done in the span 6:37 to 6:46, right? If so, it should be visible before victims were gathered and displayed there (that'll take more than 9 minutes). But no damage or sense of recent attack is evident in the videos. I had a look at Bellingcat's work on this: it suggests when the hospital was hit, the larger building had its back end blown out, leaving the roof sloping down. That, we can see, is intact in the earlier views. So ... was it hit later than the US says?



I tried to measure this - south building facade line runs around 75 degrees on the compass - presuming the same basic angle for the two structures behind it, sunlight in the later view is mainly hitting the south face, east walls in shallow shadow. My visual try for azimuth (compass direction to the sun): 173-177 degrees = 12:23-12:32 pm. The government says its first strike happened at 11:30 a.m. Earliest proof it was hit: about an hour later.

Five hours earlier, that wasn't hit yet. Exact time doesn't matter enough, but ... sun mainly hitting east walls, but also breaking across the south face surface, so at an azimuth of least 80 degrees. What angle, not sure. The NOAA solar calculator (set to location, date, GMT+2, DST on) says: In each case, subtract 75 to gt app. angle of incidence relative to the wall. What do we think? Is maybe even later? Solar elevation: how long are people's shadows relative to their height? Looks like about 3x, maybe 2.5, or 4 times?. Between these, it would be nice to get a best time estimate, and set a time frame during which that damage happened. And It's worth double-checking what the Trumpco claim really is. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:33, 9 April 2017 (UTC)
 * It was already 82.37 degrees at sunrise, 6:16 am.
 * At 6:37 it would be 85.4 degrees,
 * at 6:46 it'd be 86.7 deg.
 * 2.2x body height = 22 deg = 8:08 am
 * 3x = 18 deg. = 7:48
 * 4x = 14 deg. = 7:28
 * app. 10x = 5.44 deg. = 6:46
 * app. 15x = 3.7 deg. = 6:37


 * The point was, it's clearly nowhere near 6:30 when that place is damaged, but as I explain below, that appeared relevant but then I guess it isn't. But to seal the deal, and for what it's worth:


 * Hadi Abdullah? video around noon, at the crater by the silos - a distant plume to the southeast lines up with the cave hospital, hit recently. I made a graphic to show that, but it's not needed now.
 * another video seems to be filmed in the hospital as it's hit. People rush outside after the blast, there's smoke, the building is damaged, it's noon. Another plume rises to the south from something hit recently. --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:10, 10 April 2017 (UTC)

This is a bit confused, but apparently, it was not alleged (by most) to be hit around 6:30.
 * CNN reported "US military and intelligence analysts have now confirmed it was Syrian regime warplanes that struck a hospital in Idlib province with chemical weapons. The US picked up the radar intelligence that regime warplanes were in the air and got the infrared signature of bombs detonating at the hospital according to a US official with direct knowledge of the information." That suggests it was in the cited 6:37-6:46 window when people were said to be gassed.


 * And Fox News reports "A hospital in Syria's northern Idlib province was hit soon after the area was bombarded with a suspected chemical agent, an AFP correspondent reported."


 * but [abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/latest-syrian-field-hospital-hit-chemical-attack-46564128 ABC reports] at 2:35 p.m.: "Syrian opposition activists say an airstrike has hit a small field hospital in a town in northern Syria where a suspected chemical weapons attack took place earlier in the day. The head of the opposition's civil defense force in Khan Sheikhoun, in Idlib province, says the hospital was struck hours after the alleged gas attack that killed dozens of people.''


 * and CNN reports "The US military official said the Pentagon was examining specifically whether a Russian warplane had bombed a hospital in Khan Sheikhoun five hours after the initial chemical attack, with the aim of destroying evidence. A US defense official says intelligence shows a Russian drone flew over the hospital in Idlib that was treating victims of the chemical attack, prior to the site being later bombed by an unknown aircraft."

Syria claims an attack on a militant base in the area around 11:30. So I guess the firstreport was confused and meant they think it was Syrian jets that hit the hospital after the chemical attack, and it wasn't the Russians as they were considering. It's unclear if they still think they know the motive and it was to cover up evidence. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:59, 10 April 2017 (UTC)


 * This Video by Maaz Al-Shaami shows a bomb strike on the underground hospital at around noon judging by the sun angle. So the conclusion is there were two air raids. One at 06:30 to 07:00 local time involving gas and a second at 11:30 to 12:30 using conventional bombs on the underground hospital at least. Incidentally, the second raid had beige bomb clouds so very likely SyAAF aircraft did the bombing, not Russian. --Charles Wood (talk) 05:36, 11 April 2017 (UTC)
 * SNHR: "suspected Russian warplanes fired missiles on Civil Defense Center in Khan Sheikhoun city in Idlib governorate southern suburbs, destroying its building, damaging its equipment and an ambulance and rendering it inoperable on April 4, 2017." (photo) Same thing in a tweet, and a bit earlier, "#RussianForces shelled al Rahma Hospital in #KhanSheikhoun city in #Idlib on April 4" (same place presumably, interior photo) That's from 4:12 pm local time, a long delay even after a noon strike. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:31, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

Possible kidnapping cues

 * ''(See below for the .)

Just out, a piece by Leith Fadel about civilians, who were kidnapped in Khattab (the closest to Hama the offensive went) on the weekend before the army took it back, and "all taken to Khan Sheikhoun". Number unknown, allegedly reported by a family member. No connection to this event alleged (by Leith). --CE (talk) 13:17, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Yes, this has the signs of hostage massacre. Typically in history rebels and other less civilized combatants have killed their hostages right before they have been forced to retreat from a town. Were the people killed in their home towns or where they transported before the massacre. Maybe the adults had been killed earlier and the children moved to Khan Sheikhoun. But why kill them now? Revenge? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 14:25, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Antonopoulos has now written that it had been around 250 people kidnapped, from Khattab and Majdal, and that "local sources" claim to have identified some from the dead. He also points out that on the video material there are openings seen carved into rock. A "missile factory" with enough room to host 250 hostages and maybe stocks of some chemical junk material? Maybe worth to take a look on the map. Later. --CE (talk) 14:40, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Thomas van Linge tweets, using Aleppo Media Center photos:
 * ''Syria: warplanes also struck a @SyriaCivilDef center in Khan Shaykhun, further hindering rescue operations in the struck city
 * The three photos show the same compound as in the CW victim photos. I am now more convinced that this is the Lataminah cave compound.
 * So what happened first? Did AssadPutin bomb the place before or after the dead CW victims were brought over for treatment? Update: The bombing happened later, the building is still intact in the chemical victim videos. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 21:05, 4 April 2017 (UTC)
 * His next tweet shows "Turkish medical workers" in Turk-oise shoes "wearing fully protective suits when transporting the victims of the chemical attack to #Turkey" Huh? Where is this coming from? --CE (talk) 21:18, 4 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Just put this to the news - Turkish Health Ministry says 31 victims were brought to Turkey, three of them died, the autopsies point to exposure to Sarin. Justice Minister says "it has been determined that al-Assad used chemical weapons". *sigh* --CE (talk) 15:46, 6 April 2017 (UTC)


 * P.S. - Here is a video by Hadi Alabdallah of the compound after the alleged attack. This should be enough for geolocation. + three more videos -- Petri Krohn (talk) 21:24, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

The photo of the guy w/ the Canon strap carrying the kid wrapped in blue plastic is a Reuters photo by Ammar Abdullah. It is part of a vid of which I have found only a 3 sec snip. There is another pic of the Canon guy w/ the kid walking out of a door, presumably from the same vid. Would love to find the whole vid.

And the reason I raise it is the grey van in the background, parked in the opening. Grey w/ scarlet design on the side. It's an ambulance, and "AMBULANCE" is painted in English on the window. Number "13" can be seen adjacent the tail-light. The same or identical van is seen in the image of Canon-guy walking out the door, but you can't see the number on that van, so it may be a different one.

Then hop to the Shajul Islam vid, featured in the "Shady Doctor" section below. An identical van is seen twice in that vid. Once at 01:04 and again at 10:15 -- different visits, different patients, different time of day. But almost certainly the same van. That van does not have "13" on the fender, so there may be a bunch of these ambulances operating in this area -- at least 2 for sure. Same vans show up in vids #42 and #44 in Petri's playlist. So the presence of the same or similar ambulances ties a number of locations together, and if that's a Nusra compound in the photo above, it suggests these may be Nusra ambulances. Pierpont (talk) 17:32, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

Shady photographer
The photo linked by Petri, taken by Ammar Abdullah for Reuters and reproduced in the Guardian, shows that this is some kind of quarry with passages in the rock wall. Whether this is the Lataminah compound I'm not able to judge, but it doesn't make any sense for the children to be in a place like this unless they were captives: it's not where their homes were, and it's not a hospital. I think serious consideration should be given to Petri's suggestion that the massacre was carried out on 30 March in Lataminah, reported by UOSSM at the time as causing 70 casualties but no fatalities, and that the videos recorded on that day were uploaded today as showing a chemical attack in Khan Sheikhoun. Are there any videos of the 30 March attack? Pmr9 (talk) 18:31, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * If you look at the old videos you will see that the cave compound was also a field hospital. On the Guardian photo you see two ambulances. I think this cave is a White Helmets compound. (This does not exclude it being a al-Qaeda compound at the same time.) -- 18:53, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Unsurprisingly there are some pics on Ammar Abdullah's Reuters page that show he's deeply embedded with Nusra. Here family photos with a commander of a Nusra subdivision, there right at the place to film the green buses go up in flames during the Aleppo evacuation. --CE (talk) 19:49, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

Shady doctor
Some shady "doctors" (and Mohammed Alloush) in this twitter thread linked in the Antonopoulos article. Connections? --CE (talk) 18:44, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Dr Shajul Islam, apparently in charge of the hospital in Khan Sheikhoun, is definitely shady, and is no longer a doctor, at least in the UK. Some commentators have noted that in the middle of a mass casualty incident he was more concerned with tweeting and making videos than with attending to patients.


 * Shajul Islam, who qualified in London, was struck off the UK medical register in 2013 (http://www.bmj.com/content/352/bmj.i1831). He had been arrested on returning to the UK from Syria in 2012, and charged with kidnapping two journalists: John Cantlie, and Jeroen Oerlemans. However the trial collapsed when the two victims failed to appear as prosecution witnesses: Cantlie had been kidnapped again alongside James Foley.  It's not clear what happened to Oerlemans.  This didn't stop the General Medical Council, which is not bound by the same rules of evidence, from striking him off. Pmr9 (talk) 22:00, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Thanks, fascinating. --CE (talk) 06:06, 5 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Ditto - this (or all personnel) deserve a section. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:37, 5 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Further material on Shajul Islam, based on following up Petri's reference below to SI's tweets. SI has a website medicalaidsyria.com or medicalaid4syria on which he describes himself as a British-born doctor, and for which he is listed as the registrant with an address in east London, established 8 Sep 2016.  This appears to match a charity named Medical Aid and Support for Syria registered on 11 Aug 2016.  To be struck off the medical register is far more than having a license to practice revoked - it is a permanent expulsion from the medical profession, based on the finding that the offender is not fit to be a doctor.  Someone with this status should not be in charge of a charity, and should not be receiving funding from the UK government as SI implies he is. Pmr9 (talk) 20:50, 7 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Dr. Islam today thanks everyone for one hundred thousand pounds donated in one week. --CE (talk) 17:15, 10 April 2017 (UTC)

Bellingcat says Dr Shajul Islam from Binnish hospital" ... "At 6:24am UTC Dr Shajul Islam, based in Binnish, 50km north of Khan Sheikhoun tweeted “OUR HOSPITAL GETTING FULL FROM THE SARIN ATTACK TODAY. ANYONE THAT WANTS EVIDENCE, I WILL VIDEO CALL YOU.” So that's in Binnish, north of Sarmin, not a place of that name in K.S. For anyone trying to geo-locate it (a decent view at the very end of the 10:30 video) or make sense of the story, he might be there, not in Khan Sheikhoun. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:54, 9 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Elsewhere in the clip he talks about victims coming from Khan Sheikhoun. I got the sense he wasn't in Khan Sheikhoun, and certainly not in the underground bunker. Being in Binnish is plausible, but there is about an hours drive getting patients between the two locations. Assuming the usual stuffing around It's unlikely the first victims hit Binnish much before 08:30 local time --Charles Wood (talk) 22:30, 9 April 2017 (UTC)

Water triage

 * ''Summary: The water triage scene looks staged, none of the "victims" received treatment at the White Helmets hospital. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 01:26, 13 April 2017 (UTC)

I have spent the night looking at my playlist of videos from the White Helmets cave complex. I could not find any obvious continuity errors. On the other hand, I found no proof that any chemical weapons victims were ever treated at the White Helmets hospital.

Ten of the videos form a timeline from about 9 am to late afternoon, that can with high confidence be dated to April 4th.

The White Helmets are being very secretive about the early morning events at the cave complex. The videos of the hosing scene appeared only in the afternoon. Screenshots of the videos appeared online earlier. It is uncertain if this scene happened on April 4th at all. The clips that are available are very heavily edited, 100% massacre porn with little if anything that could help in dating them. They were given to rebel news agencies and mixed with April 4 footage and interviews before publication. The strongest call for World War 3 is in the SMART media video that was viewed on Facebook 20 million times.

The hosing scene is typical White Helmets. Hysterical action and running around, without any purpose. The victims are likely brought in on white two flatbed pickup trucks. They are dumped on the ground and hosed with water from a fire engine parked inside the cave entrance. Later we see that the fire engine has been moved to near the entrance to the enclosed courtyard. At some point children are packed into ambulances to be taken away, but it is never clear if the victims are coming in or going out.

Two sisters and their likely little brother are seen dumped to the ground. Two hour later they are seen on a pickup truck in downtown Khan Sheikhoun, in the first video claiming to show signs of a chemical attack.

Later in the day (if this truly is the same day) there is something like an open house at the compound. Everything is very relaxed, except for the excitement caused by the midday bombing. No CW related medical work seems to be happening. Five bodies are shown, there may be ten total at the site. One girl is carried around in different levels of undress.

The first video in this series is by Orient News. Shadows show that it is about one hour later in the day than in the hosing scene. One child with blood on his feet is seen in the treatment room. One body lies covered in sheets on the rightmost table. One small child is carried outside wrapped in a red blanket. There is no sign outside of the hosing scene ever happening.

Some two hours later we see that the treatment room has been totally cleaned up. There are clean sheets on the beds, fresh IV solution bags hang from the stands, waiting for new patients. AFP interviews a medic, who said the hopital had received 200 patients today, 50 of whom were dead. The dead girl lies on the table. In the next video, by Aleppo Media Center she is carried outside. We see the body of one female outside and the bodies of two adult men in the motorcycle garage. Earlier photos of the garage show four other bodies that have evidently been taken away. All fighting age men, most with beards.

Something happens around 11:30 am. A bomb explodes. The first we hear about it is in this fake video by a Yaman Khateeb, who reports on it on his Facebook page at 12:39. It is unlikely that a bomb outside would affect the treatment room. Instead someone seems to light a flair in the room.

Later videos show part of the building outside the cave destroyed. The same bodies are there, so it must be the same day. Hadi Alabdallah and his friend Maaz al-Shami seem extremely exited about the blasts outside. I am not sure any Syrian bomb ever fell on the compound. The building looks like it was blown up from the inside. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 07:10, 10 April 2017 (UTC) Updated 14:40, 12 April 2017 (UTC)

Differences between Day X and April 4th
Did the water triage scene really happen on April 4th? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 09:14, 10 April 2017 (UTC)
 * There is a bench at the eastern end of the courtyard The Reuters photo by Ammar Abdullah show some red sacks on it. These are missing from the Day X footage.
 * The same photo shows a blanket and some clothes on the platform outside the doorway. None of these are seen on the Day X footage.


 * Petri, I'm getting oriented, at least spatially, with this scene; still confused temporally. That bench is actually a concrete slab. The best view of it is in the 2:02 SMART vid where all the spraying is going on. At about 00:30 there are three guys in their underwear lying prostrate on the slab/bench. Next to the R foot of the guy with the nice clean white undies there is an orange EMT body board. The same body board lying on the same slab is seen in the same vid at 00:27.  The three guys are not there. This 00:27 view is very helpful


 * At the right end of the slab/bench is a doorway. At the left end of the slab/bench is a garage. A large white truck is backed into the garage.


 * Now go to the Abdullah image of the WH guy with the Canon-strap carrying the kid wrapped in blue plastic. There are several short vid clips showing this scene. It is the same spot as above. In this scene the grey/red ambulance #13 is parked in the garage. The same motorcycle is parked next to the garage in both scenes. The WH guy is walking toward the slab/bench. As you note, there are blankets or bags on the slab/bench. There is no body board and no guys in wet skivvies. In the photo there are virtually no shadows. In the 2:02 SMART vid, the ground is in shadow right up to and including the slab/bench. The ground is covered with water in the vid and no tire tracks, but not much water in the photo, only mucky with lots of tire tracks. I haven't figured out the sequence.


 * Of further interest in the 2:02 vid: at 01:30 a guy is spraying down someone on the ground. In the background is a dark car with a guy in white underwear hoping around like he is getting dressed or undressed. He throws something into the car. I think these actors are probably union, so he may be at the end of his shift. -- Pierpont (talk) 04:35, 12 April 2017 (UTC)


 * I have ordered my playlist in what I believe to be the temporal order. In the end I have included videos that have short clips of additional footage. I believe the Ammar Abdullah photos and video are taken on April 4th, before the bombing, as they show some of the same bodies as seen on April 4th, both before and after the bombing.
 * The bench I am speaking about is not the slab, but all the way back against the eastern wall of the courtyard. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 06:17, 12 April 2017 (UTC)

Chemical Questions

 * Telegraph sourced wire story Some interesting detail e.g."The smell reached us here in the centre; it smelled like rotten food. We've received victims of chlorine before – this was completely different."


 * FYI Rotting potatoes in basement kill four members of Russian family - a possible cause? --Charles Wood (talk) 03:24, 6 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Ugh. Of course vaguely rotten smells, and others ("like burning nylon") often come with use of kitchen grade sarin. A yellow plume is mentioned, etc. so clearly they don't even care they're reporting the kind of sarin their own terrorist friends are known to have. I guess? --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:57, 6 April 2017 (UTC)


 * From my post on the Monitor blog: Was phosphine used in the Ghouta Chemical Massacre?
 * ''For some odd reason no one has ever before suggested phosphine as the chemical agent in the Ghouta massacre. Other organophosphorus compounds have been suggested without much proof. One vital clue may be the smell. Impure "technical grade" phosphine has a highly unpleasant odor like garlic or rotting fish or rotten eggs. Witnesses in Ghouta reported the smell as unpleasant, rotten like rotten eggs.
 * What better way to fumigate Alawites in a cave than phosphine? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 03:57, 9 April 2017 (UTC)

For those interested in detail, I've done a frame-by-frame analysis of Shajul Islam's (SI) 10.5 minute rolling selfie. I was trying to find evidence that inculpates sarin and, not unexpectedly, found mostly the opposite. There are a number of oddities, also not unexpected. Here are a couple of observations. Khan Sheikhoun looks like Ghouta II to me, but I've just started wading through vids. Very grateful for Petri's play-list. I'm going to wager 5-6 hours of effort that I'll be able to find a bunch of workers from SI's clinic in KS wandering around in the Kafr Batna videos.Pierpont (talk) 19:26, 6 April 2017 (UTC)
 * One can tell by shifting shadows that SI's vid was made over quite a few hours. One view is well into the afternoon. There is a lot of editing, and yet the version of the vid I looked at was uploaded to YT at 4:30pm on Apr04, local time.
 * Weird demographics. Twelve victims are shown -- 10 males, 1 female, 1 infant. None of the males have beards. (So? Just a statistical anomaly.) Dozens of "workers" are milling around, grab-assing, only two women and you really have to be looking to spot them.
 * SI's entire point is showing pinpoint pupils (miosis)-- that is the only "evidence" of sarin he can come up with, and it's risible. One victim is throwing up, but SI doesn't mention it, apparently because he doesn't know enough about organophosphate toxicity to know what the symptoms are. Besides, given the red coloration of almost all of the patients in this vid, sarin is not a possibility.


 * Hi Denis, good to see you working on this. As you mention it yourself - the "Israel" thing slipped into your linked analysis as well, at least twice. While not unfunny, maybe not the best thing to have in a text directed at the intended audience that usually doesn't look into things like this. ;o) --CE (talk) 21:12, 6 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Denis, welcome back. I've edited the above text to use "SI" to denote Shajul Islam - using just his surname doesn't read well. Bernhard (blogger of Moon of Alabama) has speculated that SI's trial in 2013 may have been allowed to collapse as part of a deal in which he was co-opted by MI6 and allowed to return to Syria. This seems plausible.  I think it's increasingly clear that this operation wasn't something the opposition did by themselves but is supported by a large scale information operation in US and UK media: for instance this article by Kareem Shaheen].  The central role of the UK-sponsored White Helmets and Hamish DBG's instant endorsement of the regime attack story also point to UK involvement.


 * As for whether sarin was used here, I think there are strong indications from current news reports, including Chulov's article linked below, that the planners of this operation expect that samples will be produced that test positive for sarin. This may include not just blood samples but samples taken from the bodies of victims shipped to Turkey.  If they used sarin anywhere, it's likely to have been out at the quarry, where they have protective gear, rather than at the hospital site. Pmr9 (talk) 22:01, 6 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Any idea where the hospital/clinic is? "Ishmael" (:-) talks about victims coming from Khan Sheikhoun indicating he is some other town. --Charles Wood (talk) 21:39, 6 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Denis, I've gone over your frame by frame. It all sounds pretty good, especially point 40 and the bagging of 'evidence' - that is so twee it has to be staged! I also noted the lower level of consciousness of most. That's not a symptom I recognise. Or they were all sedated as part of treatment?


 * Not sure where the Cyanide bit came in. That would need dark lips and fingernails for that. Not sure I noticed any. I did notice dark lips in the photo of several youth's stacked on on a truck tray, with 'St George' underwear - but not obvious darkening of fingernails - see Dead youths on truck tray (NB - the centre kid also has rosy cheeks and thighs) --Charles Wood (talk) 22:35, 6 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Pmr9 -- thanks for the edit on Mr. Islam, who is, apparently, no longer a registered doctor. I like Charles' Ishmael approach.
 * Charles, regarding cyanide, at the end of a long analysis of the Ghouta Massacre I concluded that those folks died of either cyanide or carbon monoxide intoxication, meaning they were likely executed and used for PR purposes. The most compelling evidence was the skin color of the victims, both living and dead. I don't see much that's different in this incident.
 * Sarin will produce an intense blue skin color (cyanosis), and so, as far as I can see, it is ruled out here, as it was in Ghouta.
 * Both CN and CO produce red skin color (rubicundity). CO always does, and that's one of the few constants in pharmacology. CN can sometimes produce cyanosis, but not often. The victim has to be exposed to high concentrations in a short period of time. The US Army Medical Handbook puts it this way:
 * "When seen, "cherry-red” skin suggests either circulating carboxyhemoglobin from carbon monoxide poisoning or a high venous oxygen content from failure of extraction of oxygen by tissues poisoned by cyanide or hydrogen sulfide. However, cyanide victims may have normal appearing skin and may even be cyanotic, although cyanosis is not classically associated with cyanide poisoning."
 * The photo above is a good example of what I'm seeing in this incident: a lot of pink/red skin, like the kid right in the middle. But there are quite a few cases that are neither blue nor red, like the kid closet to the camera. There seems to be no obvious cyanosis, as you have noted. The absence of color in some bodies may be due to the passage of time after death. The red color produced by CO lasts the longest, but eventually in all types of poisoning the blood turns blue, sinks to the bottom of the body, and the pallor is produced, like that kid close to the camera.
 * As Trump, Spicer, Clinton, McCain, and Tillerson are screaming for Assad's head for this "sarin attack," I can't over-emphasize how important the color of the victims' skin is to understanding what toxin killed them. The evidence supporting the hypothesis that they were executed with CN is a lot stronger than the evidence supporting the hypothesis that Assad dropped sarin on them. Nevertheless, there will undoubtedly be "signatures of sarin" detected in the samples collected. As long as there are spray-bottles and ghoulish Wahhabis with political agendas, sarin can show up anywhere.
 * --Pierpont (talk) 01:48, 7 April 2017 (UTC)

Phosgene?
Michael Savage says complete “false flag in Syria.” No sarin gas, most likely phosgene gas. (audio) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 12:46, 10 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Phosgene symptoms are similar to Chlorine. Only difference is pleasantish smell rather than a Chlorine smell. Certainly no miosis. I put the Phosgene theory as wildly unlikely. --Charles Wood (talk) 13:28, 10 April 2017 (UTC)


 * FYI I researched Phosgene as a possible explanation for the R22 cannisters. While R22 can create Phosgene when exposed to flame the amount is very small and virtually non-existent in an explosion. I can only guess the new Phosgene theory is somehow derived from earlier speculation on R22. --Charles Wood (talk) 13:32, 10 April 2017 (UTC)

Miosis

 * Vanessa Beeley on Facebook cites Susanne Schmitz on Idlib alleged chemical attacks:
 * "Dr Islam reported the "evidence" of a sarin gas poisioning and ran from patient to patient with a diagnostic lamp to show the pinpoint pupils. "See, no reaction to light" I'm an anethesiologist and emergency and intensiv care doctor, trained in disaster medicine. First, maximum contracted pupils cannot react to light because they are allready closed. So this light test is bullshit. Second, after anesthesia with morphine or fentanyl (standard procedure) for intubation and respirator ventilation the pupils are allways contracted. Third, if the patient on this intensive care were treated against sarin they would have gotten the antidote ATROPIN by the bucket which is causing dillated pupils. Most of what I saw in this pictures was fake-reanimation and fake-ventilation of lifeless people while still living children were lying on the floor and instead of treatment with an oxygen mask got a video camera in their faces. This was a staged action and the helpers showes no urgency or compassion for any of the dying children. Never saw this kind of mal and non treatment in my professional dealing with emergency or disaster situations."

Also, is it my imagination, or does it seems like everyone S.I. shows with miosis also has green eyes? --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:47, 10 April 2017 (UTC)

It's possible to produce miosis with opiates like morphine, as Dr Schmitz points out, or with pyridostigmine eye drops (used to treat closed-angle glaucoma). As someone with medical training has a key role in this operation, we should expect more competence in faking clinical signs and emergency procedures than in Ghouta or Sarmin. Although atropine causes dilated pupils, I'm not sure if it reverses the miosis caused by organophosphate poisoning - there was some discussion of this at the time of the Ghouta investigation. If they are faking miosis, I'd expect them to use opiates on captives who they don't want to talk, and pyridostigmine on jihadis who will later be presented as survivors. Pmr9 (talk) 18:10, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

Rescue and recovery operations
If dead children are paraded in front of cameras, it does not show a chemical weapons attack. It is proof of murder, someone massacred these children and their families. To claim a gas attack, you have to show photos and videos of the attack site; dead families inside or outside their homes. Dead animals. Rescue workers breaking into houses and discovering the bodies. The White Helmets are an Oscar-winning film crew, with GoPro action cams attached to their signature helmets. They film each and every real and fake rescue operation they take part in. So why no video of the Khan Sheikhoun rescue and recovery work?

How were the victims taken from the place of the attack to the place where they were first filmed? Who did the rescue work? Where where the White Helmets and their camera crews when this happened?

If this was a real rescue operation, the White Helmets would have to go through each house to check if there are any occupants in need of help or any bodies to be recovered. Basic urban search and rescue teaches that each house or apartment be marked with spray paint after being checked. I am sure the White Helmets would know this, they have received the best hazmat and chemical weapons training from the leading Western experts. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 07:49, 7 April 2017 (UTC)

I do not think any rescue work ever happened. No video of it exist or will ever show up. We can however get some insight into the events preceding the scenes at the field hospitals. Look how the victims are clothed. Many are seen in their underwear. Who undressed them and where? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 08:04, 7 April 2017 (UTC)

White Helmets tell their story
Finnish state broadcaster YLE had a 50 minute special on the "Gas attack." A White Helmet named Ismail al-Abdullah is interviewed. He gives hoax testimony, that he could as well learned from watching videos (section starts at 10 minutes). The same guy is interviewed here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.

From the testimony it is clear he knows nothing of what happened to the victims before they arrived at the White Helmets base. He woke up and heard people screaming. He rushes to the "location", but he is evidently speaking of the White Helmets location, not location of the alleged attacks. He then pours water on the victims and coordinates with ambulances to take survivors to Turkey. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 11:42, 7 April 2017 (UTC)

Alleged bomb location
Telegraph article Gives specific location for one bomb strike "Corniche St" in the north part of the town. We have already seen an alleged fresh crater near the grain silos/bakery. I assume Corniche St is nearby? I can't find any street map to confirm. One other snippt is the wind is listed as blowing to the west - that's consistent with the Hama weather data. It also makes the Bellingcat 'analysis' somewhat dubious. --Charles Wood (talk) 03:19, 6 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Christiaan Triebert tweets that Pentagon and Brown Noses located the bomb crater, by which Hadi Abdallah is seen in his report video, at the same place - in front of the silos, near (somewhat) to where the strange US media image had its yellowish puddle. Pretty exactly here it is on wikimapia. --CE (talk) 03:40, 8 April 2017 (UTC)

A SMART News reporter visits the site of the bomb crater. Video: Testimony of the survivors of the regime chemical attack on Khan Shaikhoun in idleb At 1:08 he enters one of the buildings on the main street. He seems to be saying that people in the cellar floor had died of the attack. Who would live here? No furniture. Only a dirty rug on the floor for sleeping with an even smaller mattress serving as a common pillow. Internally displaced people, maybe. Or prisoners and hostages. The five shoes left next to the mattress belong to women and children. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 02:19, 9 April 2017 (UTC)
 * That's not quite the spot the US marked - this is on the highway, just SW of the silos. At 1:02 we see the crater, facing north and nearer (south of the crater) chunks of pavement and dirt. Could these be tossed from that impact? If so, direction of projectile was south, fired from the north. US map shows one track only flying apparently a bit south of Khan Sheikhoun. But I supposed a fancy missile could swoop north, turn around, head south, and do this? --Caustic Logic (talk) 03:19, 9 April 2017 (UTC)




 * CNN reports "US military and intelligence analysts have now confirmed it was Syrian regime warplanes that struck a hospital in Idlib province with chemical weapons. The US picked up the radar intelligence that regime warplanes were in the air and got the infrared signature of bombs detonating at the hospital according to a US official with direct knowledge of the information." But the US map shows a spot about 150-200 meters SW of the silos area as impact point. If the hospital (labeled separately in the right spot east of town) is where people were gassed - what were they all doing there? (I guess this is just some kind of mix-up? Or is there another hospital in the allegedly hit area? Nothing that looks like one, but they usually don't) --Caustic Logic (talk) 03:09, 9 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Is US intelligence claiming the White Helmets field hospital was the site of the exposure to sarin? Quote: "regime warplanes that struck a hospital in Idlib province with chemical weapons." Actually I agree, the cave complex is he most likely place for exposure. The victims where then moved to Shajul Islam's hospital downtown. But what were the civilian-looking people doing in this al-Qaeda / al-CIAda military complex at 6 am in the morning? See "" below. And why were only civilians affected and none of the White Helmets? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 03:40, 9 April 2017 (UTC)


 * See the Avigdor Lieberman quote Resup added to the section today. Apparently the claim is that "Assad" hit first near the silos, then the victims were evacuated to Whora Hora, where "Assad" hit a second time. All in 9 minutes. 100%. Or something  --CE (talk) 03:42, 9 April 2017 (UTC)


 * It may be that weird. Russia and Syria say the place they bombed was a place al-Nusra had CWs stored - US seems to say they say that was the hospital (cum-hostel?). But really .. is it that weird? I suspect not. For one thing, they're 8 hours off on timing, so we don't have a clear everyone agrees scenario. Something's amiss, and it might be six things or more. Takes untangling. (and sorry I've been so lame so far) --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:03, 9 April 2017 (UTC)

Crater
What kind of explosion would create the crater seen? A 122 mm Grad rocket hardly pierces the asphalt. Also note, that the electricity distribution box right next to the crater has not been damaged by the blast. The damage to the surrounding warehouses is said to be 6 months old. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 06:22, 9 April 2017 (UTC)


 * The size of the crater depends a bit on the fuzing type and fuze. The KS crater could easily be made by a 122mm HE rocket if it delayed a few milliseconds to detonate.
 * I find it less believable an S5 missile did it as that only has 800 gram warhead.


 * A third alternative is that the crater is old and a relic from a previous battle. This is less likely as it would presumably be filled in. However, the undamaged structure beside it could have been placed later if it was an old crater. It it was present at the detonation it would surely(?) have some shrapnel damage and paint scouring. --Charles Wood (talk) 08:47, 9 April 2017 (UTC)

Petri brought this, all images from that day, starting around noon. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:16, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

It might have been there already. It looks like a power pole was knocked down by this impact, they set up this electric box to help (?) and that probably hadn't all been done by noon. But maybe. Anyway, the north view video (see ) shows no plume rising from the crater area after the first round of alleged air strikes.

So was it hit earlier? Or later yet, and they still had that fresh electric box placed before the first images? Or did no violence happen there at all this day? It doesn't look obvioulsy old - as Charles notes, it's not filled-in, and the debris spread looks realistic (but maybe lacking in tossed-up dirt) --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:16, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

Furthermore, doesn't that crater suggest a blast, and maybe a powerful one? And wouldn't that vaporize any sarin it also released? --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:16, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

Direction of travel: the crater details to me suggest it came from N-NW, seeming to raise and crack the pavement to the S-SE. It actually lines up pretty well with the damaged building that way, but if they've been that way for months, I suppose that's a coincidence. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:16, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

Whora Hora

 * ''(I have decided to name this place Whora Hora after bin Laden's more famous cave hideout and hospital. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 20:36, 6 April 2017 (UTC) )

I found one possible location for the White Helmets cave complex. There is a plot for a warehouse carved into the hillside on the eastern side of the M5 motorway, 1.2 km north, northeast of the point where the missile struck next to the grain silos. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 00:47, 6 April 2017 (UTC)

...but Aldin on Twitter found the real one. No coordinates. :( -- 05:09, 6 April 2017 (UTC)
 * This is at 35.441414, 36.671107 just outside the eastern edge of the town. Between the time of the google maps photo and the more recent satellite photo there have been large-scale excavations, and ventilation shafts have appeared in the field above the quarry.


 * As there was a hospital in town under the direction of struck-off Dr Shajul Islam, there was no reason for casualties to have taken to this quarry outside town. It's interesting that one of the photos uploaded by Petri shows a child being carried out of one of the bunkers by the WH cameraman who was photographed from behind by the Reuters cameraman. A careful comparison of videos and stills for continuity errors may show that children are decontaminated after they come out of the bunker, with obvious implications. Pmr9 (talk) 16:29, 6 April 2017 (UTC)

On April 3 Shajul Islam tweets a two minute video with a look inside a 800 m2 cave complex that he says is under 30 meters of mountain. One future hospital room is shown and seems to be about 7 x 3.5 meters in size. Cinder blocks are waiting for inner walls to be built. Shajul Islam says the hospital will have "about 10 to 15 rooms this size". Who said Osama bin Laden could not receive kidney dialysis at Tora Bora? This hospital will have CT scanners an everything - all paid for by the UK government. The video connects Dr Shajul Islam to the White Helmets cave hospital. SI operated other hospitals in Syria, but he was in Khan Sheikhoun and the soft earth in the caves is similar to what we see in the White Helmets base. This put Shajul Islam in control of both of the hospitals in Khan Sheikhoun. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 18:34, 7 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Dr Shajul Islam‏ @DrShajulIslam - April 3:
 * ''"After 5 hospitals hit and closed last week, this is the future of hospitals in Syria. Help by donating MedicalAidSyria.com
 * April 4: ''This is not a SAMS project. One nation UK will be buying equipment for this hospital."


 * If the cave hospital outside Khan Sheikhoun was so unfinished that the chambers were just cinder blocks with no inner walls, this is strong evidence against the opposition version (channelled by Kareem Shaheen in The Guardian) that victims were taken there to be treated, and consistent with the alternative that these chambers were used to hold captives. Do we have any images of victims inside the cave hospital, or being carried out of it (apart from the one photo of the WH cameraman? Pmr9 (talk) 20:27, 7 April 2017 (UTC)


 * "Whora Hora" is a huge complex and is being enlarged all the time. In other videos we see the inside of the existing hospital. I believe there are two other entrance courtyards to the cave complex. The two others may be used for weapons storage and for chemical weapons. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 20:56, 7 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Here is one video, from Petri's playlist, that shows the inside of the existing cave hospital. --CE (talk) 21:27, 7 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Shajul Islam didn't arrive in Khan Sheikhoun area until late March. On March 19 he was still in Idlib. His first twitter mention of KS area is on March 23 when he says "As the battle to free #hama continues we are saving lives from a cave on the front lines. Dua requested". He had previously been in Aleppo until its liberation and then in Idlib. His presence at the site of the attack was certainly opportune for the jihadis. Steve McIntyre 20:40 EDT 7 April 2017


 * I suspect that the to-be-finished larger "hospital" (plus whatever) is actually the al-Khazanat base (see below). The large structures don't seem to be created yesterday. Found some more info about the hostage-killing event in February (last link most relevant) at the former army underground refueling base, and the place was the headquarter of Liwa al-Aqsa, a super hardcore takfiri group affiliated with ISIS. After heavy infighting with Nusra they agreed to a deal and left to Raqqa, not before murdering 80 of their hostages from an "FSA" gang Jaish al-Nasr at some point supported by the US. Search for the hostages then took place on the 5km² large areal. It is planned to be taken over as base by Nusra (now known as Hayyat Tahrir al-Sham), says the February 22 article.
 * There's also the chance that the two are connected anyway as they are less than two kilometers away from each other--CE (talk) 03:26, 8 April 2017 (UTC)

I have collected 16 videos that show original footage from the compound into YouTube playlist. The videos are ordered by the approximate timeline. There are three different narratives or acts. I am not sure they can all play out on the same day. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 03:52, 8 April 2017 (UTC)

Is this the al-Lataminah cave compound?

 * ''(No, it is not.)

Yes, the location of the White Helmets base must be the Al-Lataminah cave compound just south of Al-Lataminah. It was bombed by Russia on the first day of their campaign. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 17:25, 4 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Lataminah is about eight kilometers south-west of Khan Sheikhoun, I don't think the SAA would be confusing them. The thesis that it happened and was filmed earlier is interesting, though. FWIW, here's a marker on wikimapia in Khan Sheikhoun which is eight years old, on something that could be a small rocky formation, with the first comment reading autotranslated "Ohla Abu Yahya .. King of Khan Sheikun and neighboring areas, we forget the sweet days in the university city and the moments of land bread and the voice of the breads of the bread from the decks like Grad missiles atmosphere". --CE (talk) 19:02, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

...or did al-Lataminah move to Khan Sheikhoun
I just noticed Adam's blog post on the Alleged Chlorine Attack in Latamna. (I have been too busy following the spy drama at the White House to have time for Syria.) The photos could be from the Whora Hora base in Khan Sheikhoun and not from the al-Lataminah cave compound. The chlorine cylinder is the same as seen in this photo from the Khan Sheikhoun base. I thought I had geolocated the photo to the second south-facing entrance, just east of what we know is the White Helmets Field hospital. I suspect the photo with the fire truck could be at a west-facing entrance to the cave complex, at the old stone quarry to the west. (I suspected there would be another entrance, but did not have proof before.) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 00:30, 7 April 2017 (UTC)

...or is it Camp Khazanat?
Rescanning wikimapia following this morning's Konashenkov statement, on the eastern outskirts of the town there is a "Camp Khazanat Army fueling base" complete with "vehicle shelters" and "underground fueling storage" that looks like it could fit our "quarry" of interest. --CE (talk) 06:06, 5 April 2017 (UTC)


 * The facility in the videos shows the facility was surrounded by green fields. The Camp Khazanat Army fueling base is surrounded by olive groves
 * There are numerous limestone quarries around Khan Sheikhoun especially to the East and North. Some of them are surrounded by fields, not olive groves.
 * Ian Grant suggests this facility to east of Town is the site. He has a better resolution photo showing air-vents in the fields to the North of it. See His Tweet with image
 * The gas related attack occurred before dawn. The Russian attacks occurred 11:30 to 12:30 local time.
 * The SyAAF doesn't have a history of night operational sorties - with the exception of some L-39 flights that don't appear to be offensive in nature. --Charles Wood (talk) 06:47, 5 April 2017 (UTC)

No luck finding any visuals of the place so far, but I found this tweet from February 23, 2017 by @markito0171:
 * #Syria ~80 corpses found in fuel-tanks of Camp "Khazanat"/Khan Shaykhun -executed by "Liwa al Aqsa" before their retreat to #IslamicState

--CE (talk) 06:24, 5 April 2017 (UTC)
 * That does sound intriguing - and I was going to suggest the same spot before work, noting the underground storage notes. But ... --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:06, 5 April 2017 (UTC)
 * This may be video of the 80 bodies. Massacre tanks in Khan Shaikhoun (Feb 25, 2017) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:54, 5 April 2017 (UTC)

Having now looked, camp khazanat doesn't seem at all cliffy enough. And now I'm about 70% sure it's the Latamnah compound as Petri suggests. The images are afternoon sunlight. If that conflicts with anything, great. Otherwise, I wouldn't say people lived or were gassed here. It's supposed to have a hospital, and the victims seem trucked in. It's not so far from Khan Sheikhoun that doesn't make sense - this might be the best hospital around for CW victims (the mud bath by un-suited men isn't encouraging, but...) Graphic forthcoming. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:06, 5 April 2017 (UTC)

Here is a photo of the Al-Lataminah cave compound. I do not think they match. Besides, the Khan Sheikhoun caves must be facing south. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 11:04, 5 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Nice video find, Petri. I see nothing that would say it is NOT the place. It's a rather large area on the map, and they are on top of something. At 0:11 you can see that they are partly surrounded by the sort of green knolls we see in the event videos, and at 4:01 the camera goes over what seems to be a road carved into the surface through the whole picture, with people standing in front and behind it, and a higher structure to the left. Inside of that could be what we are searching for. Nothing definitive, but nothing to dismiss it either.
 * CL, your attempted match doesn't really convince me. The greens should be on different sides of the "road", the curves seem wrong, the buildings don't seem to match. --CE (talk) 14:38, 5 April 2017 (UTC)
 * I just noticed that all but one comment on the video are from the last 24 hours. I ran them through translation and they are all from knuckleheads cursing Assad in flowery poems, not realizing the date of the video. Somebody sells it as from the current "chemical weapons" event. --CE (talk) 15:07, 5 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Another video of the body recovery. At 0:29 a White Helmet is interviewed in front of a cliff similar to the White Helmets base. They could have come back to base for the interview. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 00:04, 6 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Okay, it seemed a good fit from the little I could see, but I guess it's not even that. The sun would be too low for that azimuth, come to think of it. I won't be digging for where this happened. It might be useful, but ... definitely too much going on. I'm skipping some stuff. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:18, 6 April 2017 (UTC)

Scene Overview
This is what video shows at around 6:30 to 7:00 am (possibly not of April 4, but...) I used Bellingcat's field-of-view study (see here), which seems accurate. Here, blue lines from the camera to each plume, pink circles for rough area of high-rising, high-explosives plumes, and red for the oddball white plume that might be some CW. Just where each is along the line of sight is a guess - it's set broadly (big ovals), but they could be closer or further out on their lines (the ovals are not angled right to follow the line, so image that.) The red circle may be more exact: it's a short cloud but seems to cast a shadow on the tel, so must be only a bit northeast of it, approximately at that (school?). Crater date I think is/will be explained. Hospital timeline explains that later blast. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:49, 11 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Bomb cloud sizes vary a lot. That could indicate either different size bombs or bombs that don't completely detonate. The really small one could be just the primer going off and not the main body. Of course a CW bomb is also an option but the variance in size should be considered.


 * Ultimately, actual fragments from the anomalous bomb will help resolve the question. They haven't been forthcoming, so the balance of uncertainty starts to favour a damp squib rather than a devil's brew. --Charles Wood (talk) 10:02, 11 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Agreed on smaller bomb/primer possibility. With fragments, there will be an issue of possession, that it's not cooked up--Resup (talk) 10:39, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

Amnesty upload time search indicates that video was posted before what we were told was the attack time ....--Resup (talk) 10:25, 11 April 2017 (UTC) Video ID: MYOMEDK_uVs Upload Date (YYYY/MM/DD): 2017-04-04 Upload Time (UTC): 04:59:28 (convert to local time)
 * Converting to local time means add 3 (2 for time zones, 1 for DST) giving 7:59, which is almost slow, but reasonable. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:03, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

Weather & gas extent
According to Intellicast, weather at Hama (close enough) had light winds from the East / East NE sector at 6 mph around dawn.

This means any gas plumes would head west and a bit south from impact points.

Wind speed was ~ 6mph / 2.6m/s. The sky was partly cloudy. Temperature a cool 48F / 9C. This implies a stable gas plume that is not very wide but quite long. Typically lethal maybe up to 10m either side of centreline for 500m max 1000m. Numbers will vary depending on buildings and local topography. The plume will be a bit snakey but always quite thin.

People on ground level would be affected, but a couple of storeys up and they would only get minor eye irritation.

This is assuming only a single 122m size missile delivered the gas. NB Syria has no 122mm rocket gas capability. Iraq did have that type of missile. --Charles Wood (talk) 20:49, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Postol assessment 041117.pdf States winds were blowing to South-East - away from inhabited areas. I have seen two different sources that indicate the winds had a Westerly component at 10m blowing towards inhabited areas. This is not withstanding the apparent easterly component of the first video bomb clouds which I put down to different wind direction above and below the inversion. --Charles Wood (talk) 18:41, 12 April 2017 (UTC)

Russian Version of Events
Russian spokesman Konschenkov made a statement to the effect the gas was released from a weapons factory. Second-hand source at Al-MAsdar news (can we get a better source?)

The BBC has now weighed in quoting Hamist DeBretton Gordon dismissing the claim.


 * A chemical weapons expert, Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, told the BBC that the Russian version of events was "pretty fanciful". The idea that a nerve gas like Sarin could spread after a weapons manufacturing process had been bombed was "unsustainable", he added.

The HDBG objection apparently includes the assumption the chemicals are being manufactured on the site - rather than being assembled into weapons for shipment using shipped in precursor materials.

Sarin is usually delivered as a binary weapon with in-flight mixing, though immediate pre-launch mixing is possible. In either case precursors are kept in close proximity and accidental mixing by nearby explosion is quite feasible.

Further, the main precursor ingredient of binary Sarin is either methylphosphonyl difluoride or a mix of methylphosphonyl difluoride and methylphosphonyl dichloride. Both chemicals are extremely toxic and produce nerve-gas symptoms including death in sufficient concentration.

A plausible inference is containers of one or both precursor chemicals was ruptured in the raid and produced the symptoms. --Charles Wood (talk) 11:24, 5 April 2017 (UTC)


 * I've sourced the Konashenkov statement now with TASS on the frontpage. The biggest remaining (see my observations on the Khazanat video Petri found) problem to make sense of this, in any way, seems to be the off timing you pointed out, with the admitted Syrian strike around noon while the videos show and have been released much earlier (at least the latter on the same day). --CE (talk) 18:49, 5 April 2017 (UTC)


 * NY Times article puts it variously before 7am and before first prayers (quote text may have changed? I'm sure it said Mariam was being examined at first prayers) -
 * A 14-year-old resident of the attacked town, Mariam Abu Khalil, said she had left home for her examination on the Quran — scheduled for early morning because fewer bombings were expected then — when the attack took place. On the way, she saw an aircraft drop a bomb on a one-story building a few dozen yards away. In a telephone interview Tuesday night, she described an explosion like a yellow mushroom cloud that stung her eyes. “It was like a winter fog,” she said.
 * Quite what a 14 year old girls is doing being examined on the Koran remains to be explained. --Charles Wood (talk) 19:38, 5 April 2017 (UTC)


 * First Prayer, Fajr, 04:47 am. Sunrise 06:14 am - see Syria Prayer Times --Charles Wood (talk) 19:45, 5 April 2017 (UTC)


 * FWIW and because I love the guy and don't know where else to put it, here's a just released video from our old friend Texas from Donbass. He's in a bar with a very french Frenchman who says he fought in Singal with the Kurds (where they liberated the Jezidis) and twice witnessed ISIS using poison gas against them. Texas doesn't know about the timing problem and therefore takes this as an example why the straight-forward and logical Russian/Syrian version (including the claim that the stuff was produced to be used in Iraq) is correct. --CE (talk) 19:30, 5 April 2017 (UTC)

This Chemical Weapons expert says a damaged CW weapons store is quite feasible. Channel 4 interview with Jerry Smith. NB Smith interview starts at 2:20 after old-mate Tennari who actually sounds on the ball and accurate for once! --Charles Wood (talk) 06:16, 9 April 2017 (UTC)

Whitehouse Dossier
Bloomberg has published a sneak preview of an upcoming Whitehouse Dossier on the Russian version of events [https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-04-11/what-reset-white-house-to-call-out-russia-s-fake-news-on-syria What Reset? White House to Call Out Russia's Fake News on Syria]

Of immediate interest - out of many possible item - is the 'refutation' of the Russian timing of the raid of 11:30 to 12:30. As discussed here on ACLOS there were in fact two raids, one at 06:30-07:00 and a second one including the hospital at 11:30-12:30. If The Whitehouse doesn't know these minutae - and they really should - then what value the entire dossier?

Stand by for an exciting series of smears. --Charles Wood (talk) 15:49, 11 April 2017 (UTC)


 * So there it is (as linked by NYT), four pages. No offical markings of any kind, just plain text. I'm at paragraph four which says that social media accounts "indicate" that the attack began at 6:55 am. Apparently they didn't read that circulated flight path thing with 6:37-6:46 timing. But scanning further down they time the first hospital attack reports to 1:10 pm. Will read later. EDIT: Apparently the four pages are a summary of this "background press briefing", or the briefing based on the summary. Questions are asked (yet to read as well). --CE (talk) 20:33, 11 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Finally, time to give the Whitehouse some marks. They managed to publish a pdf of a scan of a printed document - rule 101 in publishing electronic information without too much embarrassing metadata. --Charles Wood (talk) 01:22, 12 April 2017 (UTC)

Reading the transcript of the associated briefing I see the spokesman focusing on the single bomb crater by the grain silos as the chemical weapon site. Mysterious mention of 'leakage' - possibly related to white discolouration on early photos?

Many people have made suppositions about the round object in the crater. No-one has really mentioned the long tube like object - about the same diameter as a 122mm rocket but squished. With regard to the round object, various people have said it's a filler cap for a (very large) CW bomb - obviously not used here.

(Editorial follows): My best guess for the round object is it's a base-plug for 152mm artillery shell of the type used in Iraq for CW, specifically Sarin. We have evidence that some shells survived the invasion and at least one Sarin shell was used in an IED to attack US troops - Deadly Nerve Agent Sarin Is Found in Roadside Bomb See Examining a Rare Nerve-Agent Shell That Wounded American Troops in Iraq. I suggest it's quite plausible that a 152mm Sarin shell was detonated on the road during the bombing attack to incriminate the Syrian Government. --Charles Wood (talk) 02:47, 12 April 2017 (UTC)

There is a photo, I guess you mean this. +Some other parts are visible too. --Resup (talk) 03:07, 12 April 2017 (UTC)

Postol Assessment
, good idea to upload a copy, Charles. Well, most interesting is certainly that he's "almost certain" that the thing in the crater was detonated on the ground, not dropped from a plane. Noticed the different wind direction from your data as well, but he agrees with you on the tube. Pretty damning quick analysis. Will it make it to people's hypnotube? --CE (talk) 18:47, 12 April 2017 (UTC)

152mm shell? 122mm rocket casing? Same difference but I like his story better. Asides from the wind direction I can't really fault it. --Charles Wood (talk) 18:56, 12 April 2017 (UTC)


 * There are 2 circles visible on the round object in the crater and the ratio of their diameters don't match well with those on the 152mm shell cap. It would be a better match with a smaller diameter shell, asuming it has about the same mantle strength. --Ms19 (talk) 23:25, 12 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Agreed on the not-a-152 mm cap. Visually comparing the flattened tube in the crater and the cap make it quite likely the cap was originally on one end of the tube. Further, the cap in the crater appears still fixed to a cm or 2 of the body/tube it was originally attached to. It seems likely the cap and a bit of (weaker) tubing was blown off the main body/tube when it ruptured, but didn't travel far. --Charles Wood (talk) 03:43, 13 April 2017 (UTC)

The crater looks like it was caused by a GRAD rocket, where the warhead burrowed itself into the pavement before exploding. The green color is typical for Grads and would never be used for any type of airdropped munitions. A GRAD rocket consist of several parts that are screwed on to each other: the warhead, one or two engine sections and the engine nozzle. Photos of the section and the assembly process were seen when we studies the UMLACA / Vulcano rocket, that consisted of GRAD parts. It is likely that the rocket engine part would have an end cap. It is also typical that the engine tube sticks out of the ground after the warhead has exploded. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 05:27, 13 April 2017 (UTC)

P.S. - See here my photo of a GRAD rocket almost totally burrowed in into the pavement. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 05:41, 13 April 2017 (UTC)


 * There are numerous images of spent 122 mm rockets. I have yet to see one where the damage is more than the first 500mm of the motor casing nearest the warhead. None I have seen have been completely longitudinally crushed and had the end-cap neatly blown off as though by internal pressure from the motor tube. If anything the end-cap is pushed back into the motor tube. --Charles Wood (talk) 07:25, 13 April 2017 (UTC)

(Tube): His theory, crushed by a charge placed outside/on a side, "like a paste tube hit by a mallet", seems quite convincing in explaining rupture along the side of the tube. Pressure inside and shell flattening/crushing created  by such blow causes a crack in the shell which spreads longitudinally and splashes the liquid sideways. Doing something else (firing a Grad normally, or detonating a bomb ) will shatter the shell into pieces, flying out radially. Maybe it can be engineered for 'paste tube crushing' to occur inside a bomb, but there is no history of this been done or no other fragments indicating it was inside something else.

(Dosage/timing): apparently what matters is total quantity inhaled (for an average size person ). 15 liters per minute is exchanged in breathing; and some 70 - 100 mg per m^3 concentration for a 1 minute exposure is  lethal (wiki gives such concentration 35 mg/m^3 for 2 minute exposure which will kill in 50 % of the cases). in Postol report, Fig. 9, he takes 100 mg/m^3 per minute of exposure as lethal (that is, 1.5 mg consumed), so it's 10 minutes exposure at 10 mg/m^3  concentration, 20 minutes exposure at  5 mg/m^3  concentration, etc. But exposure time and concentration dependence on distance is hard to figure, cloud is spread by the wind, so exposure time is roughly duration for  cloud fume to pass, with concentration, whatever it is near ground in the fume when it arrived. Cloud will drop some droplets which will evaporate, making exposure somewhat longer at lower concentration. So unsure, with all this going on (drift by the wind, buoyancy, diffusion, drops) whether his numbers in Fig. 9 can be literally trusted, or how he actually arrived to those numbers. Can be modeled, like a weather forecast simulation, but pretty complicated; unsure how he actually did it. --Resup (talk) 11:53, 13 April 2017 (UTC)


 * I remember researching this last time. Sarin is one of those toxins where cumulative dose over a longer period of time is less lethal than the same cumulative dose in a short period. The difference is not great though.
 * As for modeling - I used to do that professionally and even wrote my own computer models in Fortran! These days it's easier to use an EPA approved model and in the case of Sarin, one optimised for heavier than air vapour. You can download SLAB which is public domain and easy to set up. I used that in research on the 2013 Ghouta gas event. In this case, there is so little data available I'm not sure it's worth it other than plug in a few guesses and see what happens. Uncertainty at present is the quantity of liquid, the initial area it is initially dispersed into as liquid or mist, and the actual wind direction (reports vary). --Charles Wood (talk) 13:06, 13 April 2017 (UTC)

ACLOS Criticism
Suggested we gather the various critiques we all come up with here, in advance maybe of some news article, using news I guess loosely, since that could take a while. From the report mainly, citing other sources --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:44, 13 April 2017 (UTC)


 * page 3, paragraph 2: "In October, 2016, Moscow also claimed terrorists used chlorine and white phosphorous in Aleppo, even though pro-Russian media footage from the attack site showed no sign of chlorine usage. In fact, our intelligence from the same day suggests that neither of Russia's accounts was accurate and that the regime may have mistakenly used chlorine on its own forces. Russia's contradictory and erroneous reports appear to have been intended to confuse the situation and obfuscate on behalf of the regime" Word salad. One claim is cited but neither is true. There's no proof of clhorine, but the WH thinks it was used anyway, just by the regime, even though soldiers were hit. It must've been a mess-up. And Russia helped, with their one conflicting story and no proven chlorine, to shift the blame onto the desperate cornered "terrorists" with plenty of chlorine, facing their end in Aleppo. What manipulations! --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:44, 13 April 2017 (UTC)

Bodies of the Child Victims
Notice there are no videos of Khan Sheikhoun locals claiming/grieving over the bodies of the children displayed by the White Helmets. Where were these children really from and who killed them? --Withnail (talk) 12:18, 5 April 2017 (UTC)
 * A good observation! -- Petri Krohn (talk) 21:20, 5 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Haven't noticed any yet, and if there are any such scenes, they might well be fake. And welcome, Withnail! --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:42, 5 April 2017 (UTC)

Telegraph sourced report has story on father with twin sons and extended family - total 22 dead. Abdulhamid al-Youssef is claimed to have lost his children and wife. There is other video available at a cemetery that appears to be the same guy.

First of all I doubt 19 people died. Exaggeration is the norm in Syria. I am also mildly suspicious that any of his family died. At best what we see is the man with two dead infants, one with an obvious head injury. There is no indication he is actually the father. --Charles Wood (talk) 06:57, 6 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Is this the "father" kissing Recep Tayyip while his White Helmets buddy stands nearby? Not a bad match, I think. --CE (talk) 15:36, 12 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Okay, for example this ... I can't get the video to play now, so I'm flying blind but if the story is surviving dad who was off somewhere, whose family was left behind and killed, and he gets the bodies to bury no problem, and is fine being on camera ... My gut feeling is: they aren't his kids, but kidnap massacre victims getting laundered in the media. Surviving fathers seem like this from the Houla Massacre forward. Often one baby of the family survives along with him, and he just spews rebel talking points as he confirms their BS story.


 * So I'd guess none of HIS family died, but exactly 22 of some kidnapped family did die. Or 23, with dad not listed, to make room for this impostor. Yousef might be their real name, but likely not, and might be his name or not (more likely his, or maybe no one's... you can only speculate so far). --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:15, 6 April 2017 (UTC)


 * The violations centre list 50 odd named casualties - all of course from poison gas. No-one got blown up in those massive blasts. Various flavours of al-Youssef are listed as dead. Perhaps the majority? I think it's a local tribal name? Abdulhamid started off with 19 dead relatives at the hospital. By the time he got to the cemetery it was 23. They must be dying like flies! --Charles Wood (talk) 13:21, 6 April 2017 (UTC)

In a post on SST, TTG (a former special forces officer) notes that A cursory review of videos and photos show unprotected “rescue workers” handling contaminated bodies with impunity, a dead child with a number on her forehead opening her eyes, an elderly man sitting on the ground having his keffiyah pulled off his head by what appears to be a film director. Can we confirm these last two findings? Pmr9 (talk) 14:58, 13 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Yes, all this is in the photo and video record. I do not buy the argument that White Helmets would be dead for handling victims with bare hands. 1) In a war situation people need to take risks. 2) The victims were hosed off. 3) If there was sarin, most of it would have evaporated by then. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 15:19, 13 April 2017 (UTC)

Abdel Hameed Alyousef

 * Telegraph sourced wire story naming or identifying 19 victims of the family of Abdulhamid al-Youssef.

The Daily Mail I think it was provided a photo of the twins (just the twins) prior to death, but strangely nobody seems able to find a photo of proud father Abdulhamid al-Youssef with said twins, alive. Withnail (talk) 18:17, 6 April 2017 (UTC)

Here are some western sources publishing the story of Abdel Hameed Alyousef and his 22 killed family members. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 11:18, 7 April 2017 (UTC) - updated 02:09, 10 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Abdel Hameed Alyousef, Syrian Father, Bids Farewell To Twins Killed In Attack - Huffington Post
 * Syrian father in agony as 9-month-old twins die in gas attack - Fox News
 * Heart-breaking footage of father who lost twins, wife and 20 relatives in chemical attack - Metro.co.uk
 * Father Mourns at Grave of Baby Twins Killed in Suspected Gas Attack - NBC News
 * 'The dead were wherever you looked': inside Syrian town after gas attack - Kareem Shaheen in Khan Sheikhun, The Guardian, April 6, 2017
 * ''Abdulhamid al-Yousef, one of the few survivors in the family, was receiving condolences at his home in Khan Sheikhun, a day after burying his wife and nine-month-old twins, Ahmed and Aya, fighting back tears.
 * ''Yousef had rushed to help the other victims of the attack. He came back instead to find that much of his family had perished, including siblings, nephews and nieces. His wife and children had rushed down to the bomb shelter in their basement, only for the toxic gas to seep into it, which killed them all.
 * Erdogan meets Syrian who lost twin babies in chemical attack - TRT WORLD, April 7, 2017

'Father' of the dead twins appears to be a White Helmets member Withnail (talk) 19:36, 12 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Buzzfeed has a Khalid al-Yusuf, 23 years old, living in Turkey, who says he lost 22 relatives.Withnail (talk) 06:07, 8 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Mazin Yusif, 13, was very sad to lose exactly 19 family members, shown frowning in a Turkish hospital. He heard the attack around 6 am, ran to the roof, he says, and saw that his grandfathers house was hit. Ran there barefoot, saw grandpa slumped over, the felt dizzy and woke up in Turkey. --Caustic Logic (talk) 03:49, 9 April 2017 (UTC)

How did Mazin Yusuf 'see that his grandfather's house was hit'? Withnail (talk) 09:50, 9 April 2017 (UTC)
 * I forgot the link, and in fact it's from 2 pieces: (cited: CNN, another citing an earlier CNN edit?) “At six thirty in the morning, the plane struck. I ran up on our roof and saw that the strike was in front of my grandfather’s house,” he told CNN at the hospital." Between them, he showed journalists from room to room "like a regular," introduced his surviving grandmother, 55-year-old Aisha Al-Tilawi, and both spoke matter of factly, citing the time and everything. Grandma was luckier: "Aisha al-Tilawi, 55, says she lost three members of her family in Tuesday’s attack." (19 Yousefs + 3 Tilawis = 22 total?) --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:38, 9 April 2017 (UTC)

So this story has a lot of sponsors. It's the kind of story they gather sponsors for, one they want to work. --Caustic Logic (talk) 03:49, 9 April 2017 (UTC)

Sample collection and lab tests
Martin Chulov in the Guardian reports that samples are being collected.

Rescue workers have gathered soil samples from the scene of a chemical weapons attack in northern Syria and sent them to western intelligence officials, who are seeking to determine precisely what nerve agent was used in one of the worst atrocities of the country’s six-year war.

''Samples taken from the scene in Khan Sheikhun, as well as biological specimens taken from survivors and casualties, will be compared with samples taken by intelligence officials from the Syrian military stockpile when it was withdrawn from the country in late 2013. Syria’s stores of sarin are known to have particular properties which experts say can be forensically matched to samples taken in the field.''

Hersh has reported that samples of the sarin binaries destroyed on the MV Cape Ray were found not to match the Ghouta sarin. This report suggests that some new deception is being planned. It's possible that some intelligence agency has got hold of a small quantity of sarin binaries from the Syrian stocks that were destroyed on the Cape Ray, and that this will be used to generate a false match. Pmr9 (talk) 17:54, 6 April 2017 (UTC)

The entire chain of custody of both samples and survivors will be exclusively in the hands of various anti regime bodies. Withnail (talk) 18:12, 6 April 2017 (UTC)

The UK's UN Ambassador claims the UK has tested something or other from the scene and found traces of Sarin Withnail (talk) 19:25, 12 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Chemical weapons scientists at Porton Down in the United Kingdom have analysed samples obtained from Khan Shaykhun, these have tested positive for the nerve agent Sarin, or a Sarin like substance. The United Kingdom therefore shares the US assessment that it is highly likely that the regime was responsible for a Sarin attack on Khan Shaykhun on the 4th April. (Matthew Rycroft, UK's ambassador to the UN)
 * This doesn't make sense. Whether the samples are physiological or environmental, Porton Down should be able to identify sarin as present or absent, not "a sarin-like substance". Does this mean they found sarin adulterated with DFP as a sort of poor man's CW agent as the Russians did in 2013? If these are environmental samples, the chemical profile may turn out to be a perfect match for the DF destroyed on the Cape Ray under OPCW supervision in 2014. It sounds as if Chulov was told to expect this. But in that case they won't match the samples from Khan-al-Assal and Ghouta.  I'm pretty sure that the planners of this op can't fabricate the GC/MS results obtained on the Cape Ray - too many people know these results, and some have talked off the record.  Pmr9 (talk) 21:24, 12 April 2017 (UTC)