Talk:Russian special operation in Ukraine

February 24
The airport is near Kiev, on the right (Western) bank of the Dnepr.
 * Gostomel (Antonov) airport
 * "Russian helicopters attacking Gostomel airport"
 * Apparently two Russian helicopters shot down, one of them landed and another crashed and exploded, apparently near Gostomel airport (some airport --said by person filming)
 * Apparently, Russian KA-52 helicopter which was hit but landed
 * Russian special forces control perimeter of Antonov airport
 * Landing strip, possibly damaged by Ukrainian shelling
 * Mria, the largest transport plane. (Unconfirmed) reports that it was destroyed when Ukraine shelled Gostomel airport, trying to prevent landings, but other comments that it was elsewhere. Here it appears that last recorded flight was on Feb 5, Billund to Gostomel
 * "Video of the burned An-225 "Mriya" and Russian equipment at the Gostomel airfield near Kiev after Ukrainian shelling, first days of the fighting".

Russian forces are in control of Chernobyl n. power station, 90 km direct/130 km by highway from Gostomel airport
 * Chernobyl


 * Dymer settlement
 * Photo shown by both sides, with opposite purposes, Telegram, February 25


 * Other
 * Melitopol airport hit (Zaporoshskaya region)
 * Said to be Destroyed column of T-64BV tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the vicinity of Kherson
 * Ukrainian plane shot down, 14 aboard
 * "Destroyed Russian vanguard on bypass road near Kharkov" (unverified)

--Resup (talk) 15:55, 24 February 2022 (UTC)

February, 25
--Resup (talk) 08:49, 25 February 2022 (UTC)
 * A Russian patrol, apparently in Gostomel.
 * One Russian column (Z sign) is destroyed, said to be by Ukrainian artillery, said to be under Kherson. Another video.
 * Said to be abandoned Ukrainian column of military vehicles near Kherson
 * Said to be destroyed Ukrainian military columns, Melitopol' and Buchi city, near Kiev.
 * LPR forces captured NLAW anti-tank weapon (UK/Sweden) . It is claimed that operator fired on residential area in Lopaskino settlement. Shown by a war journalist in the field here
 * Anti-tank mines on a beach near Odessa.

February, 26

 * Missile hits a residential building in Kiev. Suspected Ukrainian air defense missile.
 * Said to be, "Russian Mi-24 destroyed the Ukrainian air defense system "Buk-M1" and other equipment"
 * Said to be Shirokoe airbase, Zaporozhie (map)
 * Stanitsa Luganskaya taken by LPR, Ukrainian forces left, said to be no shots fired.

February, 27
--Resup (talk) 08:05, 27 February 2022 (UTC)
 * Apparently, some RF forces entered Kharkov, while it is attempted to promote resistance on social media (pro - Ukr telegram channels). Those channels report /videorecord locations where forces are seen, and call for attacking them. Resistance strength is uncertain; counter-propaganda is minimal - so propaganda may have effect.
 * Apparently, as a result of the above a column of light Russian vehicles was destroyed, location is given as Shevchenko, Kharkov. Related video. Attributed to Freikorps, which is Nazi-linked name. And they have a telegram channel.
 * Video picked by BBC
 * Ukrainian BTR 4 said to be destroyed nearby the place where RF lost several "Tiger" light armored vehicles
 * Apparently, some RF forces advanced to Kiev from Gostomel. There are some videos, not many.
 * For diplomacy, Russian conditions were stated as recognition of Crimea and neutral status; delegation is sent to Belarus (Gomel)'. Zelensky initiated talks but then backed off, and now reportedly said that Belarus location is not OK. In Russian media it is said that reason for backing off is that conditions are presently considered unacceptable. But those conditions are minimal accepted to Russia, so not accepting them will lead to more casualties and more war.
 * www.president.gov.ua didn’t send any data. ERR_EMPTY_RESPONSE (while social media is full of stuff of all sorts)
 * Irpen', near Kiev, pro-Ukr frontline video.
 * Said to be destroyed column of the Russian Airborne Forces in Bucha, Kiev region. Advancing forces in the morning video, same post.
 * Report on white phosphorous use by Ukraine in Gostomel
 * "Photo of a civilian car shot by the Nazis in Artemovsk in the Donbass. Judging by the damage, the driver and passengers may have been injured' (or killed)
 * Said to be Russian check point near Sumy destroyed (one tank, one light military vehicle)
 * Sumi on the road sign. Alternative description for same video: MTLB and Varta are on fire - a Ukrainian wheeled armored vehicle on the MAZ-5434 chassis
 * I do not think it's MTLB, there is long tank gun and tank silhouette on the longer video; Varta, maybe, that would make checkpoint Ukrainian, not Russian
 * Claimed to be Bairaktar strike on Russian Buk, Malina, Zhitomir region. Russia reports that 3 Bairaktars shot down.
 * "Explosion at a tank plant, Kharkov".

February, 28

 * Russian combat helicopters destroy military targets and convoys

March, 1

 * Missile strike, (next to) Kharkov Regional State Administration, 1, 2, 3, map 1, 2
 * Videos of strikes, Kharkov
 * Explosion, said to be at Chuguev airfield, Kharkov region
 * Explosion near Kiev TV tower 1, 2

March, 2
Volnovakha: 1 (mirror); 2.

March, 3

 * "Chechen special forces defeated the nats battalion and captured the largest military base in Ukraine"
 * Chechen republic soldiers: we passed there minefiled, they run from us.
 * "Roofed" Russian tanks T-72B3 and T-72B3M pass through the checkpoint of the "terrodefense" forces and activists supporting them in Energodar city.
 * "First captured FGM-148 Javelin" (top of BTR, presumably).
 * Sunk flagship of the Ukrainian fleet, the frigate Getman Sagaidachny, formerly Kirov.
 * "Nighttime firefight at Zaporshkaya nuc power station", "no fire towards the reactor, no spike in radiation"

March, 5

 * Apparently, Russian SU-24 shot down near Chernigov, pilots bailed out; but it is said that one of them was killed, another captured 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
 * Two Chechen battalions on Ukrainian side
 * Tank with roof, unclear what happened
 * Apparently, Russian convoy, many trucks and one BTR destroyed, location, circumstances unknown
 * "Soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with an American M240V machine gun and a British NLAW ATGM are somewhere in a kindergarten converted for the needs of the army"
 * "Civilians who managed to escape from Mariupol told how it was"
 * Residents of Mariupol gathered to evacuate, but the Nazis of "Azov" do not let them leave. Let's be objective. Mayors of cities are not to blame. They are being held hostage by the Nazis. (mig41)
 * "Sparta" commander Vokha is killed, said to be while evacuating civilians from Volnovakha
 * ''Today the battalion "Sparta" helped to evacuate the residents of Volnovakha. To get out of the city, you need to drive through a dangerous section of the highway, which is actively shot through by the Ukrainian military. Under the cover of the Sparta battalion, the @wargonzo military correspondent team helped a family with a sick child get to Bugas, a settlement that is now completely under the control of the People's Militia of the DPR. [An hour and a half later, Voha, the commander of the Spartans, died saving another family who were trying to leave the city.


 * WarGonzo: Voha's last video. Here the battalion commander of Sparta - tells the relatives of the residents of Volnovakha, who asked to take their loved ones out of the shelling - that as soon as the opportunity arises, he will do it. After 30 minutes, he went to fulfill his promise. An hour and a half later, I was informed of his death.

March, 8

 * "The Nazis themselves document their crimes. On the published video, the militant tells desperate people that there will be no evacuation, allegedly because of the shelling of the humanitarian corridors. And on the recording at this time, the sound of an outgoing howitzer shot is perfectly audible."

March,11
Ukrainian forces fired at the "Mayak" market in Donetsk near the 20th hospital

March,13

 * "'Calibrs' fired on Yavorskii testing ground"
 * Telegraph story on British 'volunteers' taking their personal phones with them. I imagine other nationalities there were doing likewise. Russia obviously knew of the base and its current role beforehand and had warned in the days before what was likely to happen. The propagantistic slant of the article is to play up the importance of Brits to Russia. Nevertheless it seems completely thoughtless for 'elite' personnel to do that. --Diagonal (talk) 14:32, 22 March 2022 (UTC)

March,17

 * Drone corrected Russian artillery fire, near Kiev
 * Assault groups of the DPR Army are fighting on the streets of Mariupol (promo video, music, with some actual footage)

March,19

 * Said to be missile strike on barracks of 79 ODShB near Nikolaev 1, 2.
 * Sharii: 294 Ukrainian soldiers killed in a single day In Nikolaev region; he has names and DoB details and considers publishing this info.

March,21

 * Azovstal' in Mariupol?. It's considered to be one of the main positions of 'Azov'. Post says it was taken.

March, 24

 * Leftbank region, Mariupol (?) + a video
 * Prospect Metallurgov, near Azovstal.
 * Funerals, Mariupol.

March, 27

 * Patrick Lancaster: National guard and 'Azov' base in the basement of school 25, Mariupol. A woman tortured, dead.
 * In Mariupol, nationalists burned a swastika on a girl's body Horrible PHOTOS and VIDEO
 * '' DPR fighters showed us the girl's body - it lies in the basement of one of the schools in Mariupol, where the base of the Azov nationalists was. One of the girl's arms was torn off, the remains of a plastic bag or adhesive tape are visible on her head, and a swastika is burned on her stomach.
 * ''How we got these shots is another story: a little later I will publish a post with details and a video. So far - a few photos and a short video. Who else has any doubts about Ukrainian nationalists?

--Resup (talk) 19:03, 27 March 2022 (UTC) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 21:21, 27 March 2022 (UTC)


 * Sladkov, report from Mariupol: Russian and DPR flags are raised at a former base of 503 battalion, 36 Marine brigade, Ukraine. (A group of locals reacts, pass messages to relatives in Russia. They say that Ukrainian forces burned an internat (boarding school) located there. One woman says that we are alive, but our home is no more.

Last updated: --Resup (talk) 00:51, 28 March 2022 (UTC)


 * Assault on the "Comb" - Cassad, May 26, 2022
 * Video description: Assault on the "Comb" stronghold in the area of the 29th checkpoint. Taken in March. Scouts of the 4th Omsbr brigade of the LPR army penetrate the enemy's trenches, after which they begin an infantry battle in the style of trench battles of the 1st and 2nd world wars. There are dead on both sides. --Resup (talk) 03:43, 26 May 2022 (UTC)

July,2022
(1) Western, Ukrainian, and Russian patriotic opposition/opolchenie sources report that in the past week Ukrainian forces performed a number of successful artillery and MLRS strikes on Russian ammunition and command centers, causing losses in troops and military hardware. (2) There are calls by Russian patriotic opposition to fix numerous shortcomings, as well as rumors of higher intensity conflict after some kind of ultimatum (3) It is said that Russian Duma will held a special meeting on Friday --and that it may or may not be of any significance (According to Kommersant, the extraordinary meeting is not related to Russia's special operation.) --Resup (talk) 18:27, 11 July 2022 (UTC)

August, 2022
Close range combat near Peski, date uncertain, Russians said to be on the left, Ukrainians said to drive under the bridge in BMP/BTR on a fuller video, somewhere. --Resup (talk) 01:19, 2 September 2022 (UTC)

POWs
Last updated --Resup (talk) 12:37, 26 February 2022 (UTC)
 * Russian/pro-Russian
 * Said to be in Kharkov area, 26 Feb.
 * several from the same unit, 27 Feb
 * Prisoner in Kharkov, from Sevastopol
 * "Refused to say Glory to Ukraine"
 * Glory to Russia, (not) Ukraine
 * "Russian Major", "near Melitopol". No details, no name or military unit number; may be fake (eg to show not too bad treatment)
 * Does video show Russian prisoners being shot? - BBC, March 30, 2022
 * Ukrainian
 * 82 POWs taken in Zmeinyi island. Another 13 guards resisted and were killed.
 * Said to be large number of prisoners ("almost 500") taken near Kharkov, 302 Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment
 * Popadiuk A.M., commander of a special operations group, military unit 199, 73 center of Navy special operations

Heroism, on videos
(I'd rather not have this war, but it's on... ---Resup (talk) 22:08, 3 December 2022 (UTC))
 * "Russian warrior with steel nerves throws away grenades flying to him" (survives), - Rusvesna, November 6, 2022
 * "Tragic footage of the death of the Russian Hero: a PMC fighter did not surrender to the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" - Rusvesna, November 24, 2022. Another fighter did the same, in the same fight.
 * Soldier drives burning truck loaded with shells away from the comrades- Rusvesna, December 3, 2022

Phase 2
Phase 2 is focusing on Donbass. As well as on trying to prevent supplies of Western armor and fuel to Ukraine.

May 7. Neither side is posting major updates, after some reports on the previous day on possible Russian attack (in Donbass), and Ukrainian attempts to counter -attack in Kharkov region.

It is said that US howitzers arrived, in particular near Odessa, targeting, together with Bayraktars and backed by Western intelligence Zmeiinyi island. --Resup (talk) 11:48, 7 May 2022 (UTC)
 * Popasnaya, LPR
 * Zmeiinyi island 1, 2, 3

--Resup (talk) 22:02, 7 May 2022 (UTC)

Russians a claiming at least two destroyed after landing Ukrainian MI 8 helicopters, in addition to planes and drones, and a landing ship. Here Ukrainians claim it was them destroying Mi 8 helicopter, same island. Wonder are those claims about the same helicopter? A charge on Bairakter drone could be about 90 kg (or less); the strike looks visually pretty heavy, will a drone drone strike do it like this ? (Unsure, for now, at least. Appears to be a cluster munition, those flashes, and not a small one. 90 kg ? Unsure). --Resup (talk) 19:54, 8 May 2022 (UTC)
 * It has been claimed that what is shown is Ukrainian helicopter destroyed. Then it appears accepted that it was a Russian helicopter destroyed.
 * It is claimed by TV Zvezda (aligned with RU MoD) that Ukraine unsuccessfully tried to capture the island on May 7-8 (prior to the WW2 Victory day, May 9), and suffered heavy losses. There is a video showing (some) bodies, without identifying details. 1, first claimed in 2, 3

"Two Ukrainian combatants who died in a Russian attack on a school in Belogorovka in the Ukrainian-controlled part of the Luhansk region have emerged" 1, --Resup (talk) 21:52, 8 May 2022 (UTC)
 * May 8.

Large (up to a battalion tactical group) Russian losses during attempts to cross Severskii Donets river, see eg 1, 2 (other sources generally agree). Comments suggest large losses of Ukrainians during crossing attempts elsewhere (Izium?)
 * May 2-8

Prior to May 14: social media backers on both sides suggested attacks planned by the opposing side. Heavy weapons use reportedly heard in Lugansk, otherwise unclear.--Resup (talk) 09:47, 14 May 2022 (UTC)
 * May 14
 * Ukrainian forces made advances towards Russian border in Kharkov region, with shelling and threatening of Belgorod region, Russia. On Russi's side the front there was manned by inexperienced L/DPR reservists
 * Claim: ''Ukrainian forces have launched a counteroffensive in Izyum, according to Oleh Synegubov, head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration.
 * Report: '' ' "Braves" (Russian second stage 'O' group) defeated the 2nd separate assault battalion of the UAF in the Liman direction.' (Noted, full extend of losses not clear from photos provided; battalion size is usually given as 145-500 range, perhaps 200-250 in practice).
 * Quoting RU MoD, + a video: '' "Russian motorized riflemen adjusted the artillery fire on a deployed Severskii Donets river crossing and UAF armored vehicles hiding in the forest. The crossing was completely destroyed and drowned. The forces that managed to cross were destroyed, part of the armored vehicles was seized".

--Resup (talk) 19:42, 14 May 2022 (UTC)

Guliaipole/Malinovka, failed Ukrainian attack attempts, losses reported. --Resup (talk) 03:54, 16 May 2022 (UTC)
 * May 15

Ukraine claims that it destroyed Russian "Tiulpan" heavy self-propelled mortar, tipped by Russian videos of it.
 * May 22.
 * (Response, here).

-- (talk) 14:36, 22 May 2022 (UTC)

Troubling opolchenie post "from the woods of Izium" via Kenigtiger, on the state of some regular forces, titled НИКАК, БЛЯТЬ! Часть 1, telling about lack of high or low tech equipment to dig in, lack of drones and modern communication, insufficient preparedness, shortcomings of commanders, and of supplies, and as a result of all that, and abundance of drones and modern communication equipment, plus artillery, on the opposing side, heavy losses in wounded or killed. Original report was censored but copies available on social media. --Resup (talk) 07:11, 4 June 2022 (UTC)
 * June 3.
 * Updates: medical;inspirational.

Videos of Russian Kamikaze drones use.--Resup (talk) 11:28, 5 June 2022 (UTC)
 * June 6

Weapons and advisers sent to Ukraine

 * Echelon from the Czech Republic with T-72M1 and BMP-1 on the way to Ukraine, Apr. 5, 2022. in the Czech echelon:- 5 T-72M, - 5 BMP-1. It is reported that several more such echelons will arrive.
 * The United States approved the sale of 8 F-16 units to Bulgaria so that Sofia would transfer its MiGs and Su to Ukraine in exchange, Apr. 5, 2022
 * A batch of D-30 howitzers from Estonia arrived in Ukraine, Apr. 6, 2022
 * Blinken promises to provide Ukraine with nothing less than ten anti-tank grenade launchers per Russian tank!, Apr. 6, 2022

--Resup (talk) 06:48, 7 April 2022 (UTC)


 * British special forces ‘are training local troops in Ukraine’. Serving UK soldiers ‘on ground’ for first time -The Times and elsewhere, April 15, 2022.

--Resup (talk) 10:04, 16 April 2022 (UTC)

... (Also): " the Wasp-class amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge (LHD 3), flagship of the Kearsarge Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) and 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), arrived in Tallinn, Estonia for a scheduled port visit, May 27, 2022". (Used by Ukr. militaristic propaganda).

Israel refuses US request to transfer Israeli missiles to Ukraine - report - Jerusalem Post, 27 May, 2022].

''The US requested that Israel allow Berlin to supply Ukraine with Israeli-developed anti-tank missiles. US and Israeli officials told Axios on Wednesday that Israel turned that request down.

'' Amir Eshel, director-general of the Israeli Ministry of Defense ...denied the request, the report added, explaining that due to concerns that there would be Russian casualties from Israeli-made weapons, Israel will only supply Ukraine with nonlethal military equipment.

This is sort of interesting. Apart from presenting a high moral ground, it probably involves practical considerations such as supply of Russian-made weapons to Israeli enemies (in Lebanon, Gaza, Iran, elsewhere). Wars against Israel were fought with mostly Soviet or Russian weapons, but with limitations of what can or cannot be supplied, and such limitations could be downgraded.

Somehow this obvious fact is not take by American and British, who seem to be happy that there would be (and indeed are) Russian casualties from their weapons. I do come across comments of Russians on social media to respond by supplying weapons to other parties accordingly. I do read on social media claims that Ukrainians are selling Western weapons on darknet. I read in particular a report that parties in Syria at least tried to buy "Javelins", with a price provided.

On top of that, it seems to at least jeopardize possibility of genuine cooperation on matters such as Iran(ian nuclear program), North Korea, arms treaties, etc. As a sign of this, I note that Russia walked out of a treaty with USA on cultural and scientific exchanges --which I take as a knee-jerk reaction (not really justified on merits).

--Resup (talk) 13:53, 5 June 2022 (UTC)

UK to send Ukraine M270 multiple-launch rocket systems - BBC. The article is evasive on the issue of what range munitions are to be supplied. In any case, going out of the way to have as much calamity as possible (short of outright WW3) - June 6, 2022

Lost armor

 * Apparently large landing ship damaged or destroyed in the port of Berdyansk, near Mariupol, March 24. Or maybe submerged to avoid ammo detonation.

Ugledar, February 8, 2023
Unsuccessful attack by Russian forces near Ugledar, around Feb. 8. It is said that 31 armored vehicles are lost to Ukrainian artillery fire (+maybe ATGM and landmines). Attack was on narrow roads on flat terrain along narrow strips of trees. Ugledar defenders used drones (not suppressed by R-EW) and elevated positions, including multistory houses. Some photovisuals, there are many, from Ukrainian side, and discussed by both sides. Losses in men are not known (videos show men outside the vehicles). Russian commenters blame mostly the generals for mistakes repeated over and over again --Resup (talk) 14:08, 11 February 2023 (UTC)
 * https://vk.com/wall-61716737_575007
 * https://antimaydan.info/2023/02/razbor_prichin_razgroma_kolonny_pod_ugledarom.html
 * https://topwar.ru/210644-v-seti-projavilos-video-udara-artillerii-vsu-po-kolonne-rossijskoj-bronetehniki-pod-ugledarom.html
 * Earlier reports
 * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atOlZekKmyY (showing unhappy Ukrainian defenders, dated 7 Feb.)
 * Later reports
 * https://rusvesna.su/news/1676119588, Feb. 11

Analysis

 * Михаил Онуфриенко mikle1
 * Strelkov: "It is a military axiom that for the offense one needs to have 3-fold superiority in manpower, and about the same in hardware", ONT news, March 24.

Mariupol
What the hell is happening on this video? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 18:17, 26 February 2022 (UTC)
 * 🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️⚡️⚡️ Ukrainian troops do not let people out of Mariupol, many are shot. Total chaos began in the city and its environs.
 * Dear residents of Mariupol, try not to move around the city. Mariupol will soon be liberated!
 * https://t.me/intelslava/20724
 * Don't really know. The only intelligible word is "Bitch!" (expletive), said by the driver filming the incident, in Russian. before he speeds off and likely getting shot at. Other shouts, by armed men, and screams of passengers are unintelligible. Some checkpoint or random stop by armed men in military fatigues , not seen well enough, presumably Ukrainian or Nazi bat. Mariupol is being squeezed from East and West, leaving few outroads open. Armed men could be after the vehicle (or just into rampage of violence). When dangerous people are arrested, it would not be unusual to lay them face down rather forcibly, but this does not look like arrest of dangerous persons, it looks more like assault, likely to get the vehicle.  --Resup (talk) 20:36, 26 February 2022 (UTC)
 * DAN: ''Ukrainian security forces and militants of the national battalions seized buses, including large-capacity buses, from the Mariupol tram and trolleybus department. “They took away our city buses, including 'accordions'. They are preparing to ride them out of the city. They're going to Zaporozhye"  --Resup (talk) 22:09, 26 February 2022 (UTC)

Reports on pro-Russian civilians intentionally killed
See also: Killing of Alexander Rzhavsky
 * Anna News, April 20,2022
 * Armed formations of the Kiev regime killed a Russian activist in Kherson. Valery Kuleshov was shot near his entrance in the Shumen microdistrict. Kuleshov was a Russian activist and promoted the organization of peaceful life in the city --Resup (talk) 19:38, 20 April 2022 (UTC)
 * Svarshiki, Telegram, April 20, 2022
 * ''Azov Nazis shot dead a civilian for trying to drive them away from a house where women and children were hiding. The murder took place at Mariupol, Pervomayskaya, 21.
 * Witness accounts and videos, with descriptions, are included. Videos would be hard to interpret without the description. Accuracy, uncertain.

--Resup (talk) 21:32, 20 April 2022 (UTC)

Civilian casualties
Rubezhnoe, presently mostly controlled by L/DPR and Russian forces. Large number of civilian casualties resulting from shelling is reported, said to be two mass burial graves, 150 m long each, with the third started. According to Russian sources, evacuation of civilians was prevented by Ukraine who used civilian as human shields. When that was possible, pro-Russian forces evacuated civilians, and several such videos from the area are available. However, Ukrainian propaganda portrayed the events as evacuation was prevented by Russian shelling. Eg in this video, Ukrainian correspondent records bangs, mostly at a distance (which may be outgoing), with maybe one or few incoming, and claims that Russian forces are shelling precisely the location where she is filming (that is clearly nonsense, however Ukrainian propaganda has incomparably larger coverage and presence in the Western media) --Resup (talk) 22:49, 1 May 2022 (UTC)
 * Civilians evacuated by Russian forces, some complaints-not enough vehicles etc, but the woman says she was not aware of any Ukrainian -led evacuations

Separate operations
There are two separate operations:

-- Petri Krohn (talk) 17:33, 24 February 2022 (UTC)
 * 1) L/DNR operation to liberate the occupied parts of the former oblasts. No Russian forces are involved, only artillery support. (Huge Smerch strike on the Lugansk front.)
 * 2) Russian operation to A) demilitarize B) denazify Ukraine. Phase 2A seems to be almost finished. 2B needs boots on the ground.

There has been some debate about whether Russian operations further west in Ukraine around Kiev and also heading west from Nikolayev were failed gambles (in some kind of ambitious psyop in the early days of the operation), or feints in maneuver warfare designed to prevent Ukrainian reinforcing towards Donbass, whilst analysts in western MSM has largely tried to maintain a narrative of the operation just being a mess. The Russians have now consolidated their forces and strategic focus. Although they were not completely successful, it seems these more exposed parts of the operation did achieve some purpose for the Russian command albeit at a loss rate which was unsustainable. I would guess that for example that the Russians would want have wanted to push on from Nikolayev to establish more of a presence around Odessa, but have had to prioritize fighting the main formation of UAF on the Donbass front. Diagonal (talk) 09:58, 1 April 2022 (UTC)
 * Plans are unknown of course. Typical thing said among those otherwise credible is that it was assumed (or hoped) that it will be like in Crimea 2014, that Ukrainian army soldiers will not fight, and leave or join, and only hard core natsbats like Azov would resist. Accordingly (1) in the first hours, there were no massive strikes to inflict human losses, only strikes on control facilities, hardware and such, (2) number of Russian troops were at best equal, at worst 1/3 of the opponent, while attackers are supposed to have 3 fold superiority, (3) forces and supply lines behaved as if they are on friendly territory, small groups parked in the open. This could be a mistake; but mass killing in first hours in the longer run could be an error too, or hard to be certain to proceed under such assumption.


 * Additional complication is that it is not certain that Russians will stay for a fix, and if they come and go, it is hard to locals to commit to supporting them, knowing they may be gone.


 * In any case, there is no certainty, either on past plan or future course of actions --Resup (talk) 17:19, 1 April 2022 (UTC)

The logic is that of a civil war, not of a war war; they were given a choice and could choose side, they stayed with Azov and Western psy-op; that could leave no choice to the Russians --apart that what kind of Russia is on the other side is fluid as well. --Resup (talk) 18:05, 1 April 2022 (UTC)


 * The question is taken up quite comprehensively here by Nightvision on The Saker blog. --Diagonal (talk) 14:17, 3 April 2022 (UTC)

Claims of Ukrainian attack plans
(This refers to documented evidence found by Russian forces on this particular occasion, see references on mainpage, around dates below). I'd day, not clear cut, whether documents prove the claim. Of course Ukrainians were preparing, had big numbers superiority over L/DPR, and presented a hanging threat, in addition to unending shelling. But I do not see that this document alone providing overwhelming evidence of large scale Ukrainian offensive; this may be a matter of interpretation.

What seems to me likely is that this slowly degrading situation (aka 'death by thousands of cuts"), and no progress or remaining hope that diplomacy will work led to 'siloviki' (forces) in Russian leadership  taking upper hand over liberal pro-Western globalists, and decision was taken by siloviki, or developed itself into being taken (once the other side/approach had no achievement to demonstrate in support of their approach).  And once it was siloviki on top, it just happened, like, after earlier first deployment of forces to prevent Ukrainian attack leading nowhere with accusations of bluffing; and/or after threats during diplomatic attempts issued to act if conditions are not met were rejected and no action immediately followed, presented by some as weakness. Once 'force people' took upper hand, military solution followed (Strelkov was talking about inevitability of such development for many years) --Resup (talk) 21:25, 9 March 2022 (UTC)

Victoria Nuland
(See mainpage for link). I do not think Victoria Nuland is driven by hatred/desire to destroy Russia. That does not mean that what she did is any good. But she is not like Brzezinski. Likely, a servant of the establishment, with skills needed to be "successful"among her peers. And I do not think immigrants who have difficulty adapting to new homeland are driven by hatred to place they left; more likely, they are unhappy about something in the place they arrived to. You do not go to study Russian culture in college out of hatred of Russian culture. But maybe something happened, that Russian ship, et al. I have no clue, and did not study Victoria Nuland personality. If not her, there would be somebody else in similar slot. --Resup (talk) 01:43, 30 March 2022 (UTC)

Russian ship
Русский корабль


 * Echo Moskvy (wayback machine), July2, 2015
 * V.NULAND: I like Russian culture, music, art. I ate all Russian food
 * L. Ryabtseva. We know that you seem to have worked on a Soviet ship. Maybe. A translator, perhaps. That's what it says on Wikipedia. And there is a myth that you had an affair with someone either in Russia or somewhere.
 * A. Venediktov- Love.
 * L. Ryabtseva- Love, yes. Maybe you can talk a little about it? This is insanely interesting - not a word is said about this anywhere.
 * V.Nuland - Yes. Of course, women love to talk about their romantic encounters, even though 30 years have passed.

Last updated: --Resup (talk) 20:36, 30 March 2022 (UTC)

No end-state possible?
PavewayIV comments on Moon of Alabama:


 * *My* not-so-brief response to confused Scott Ritter followers and Andrei Martyanov's brief response:
 * 1. Do not, under any circumstances, underestimate the extreme US/ZATO psychopathic obsession with destroying Russia. That's not my prediction of any such eventuality, but it should be (IMHO) understood by everyone that the US/ZATO will not stop trying. There *is* nothing regarding an end state for Ukraine/Russia to negotiate.
 * 2. Zelensky, his Ukraine ultra-nationalist SS and the SBU Gestapo were convenient *opportunities* towards #1. They have all proven incompetent, inadequate and a PR disaster. US/ZATO no longer has use for them.They WILL be replaced, mark my words. It's not up to Ukraine (and never was).
 * 3. Ritter has finally considered the improbability of ANY acceptable end-state in Ukraine for Russia AND US/ZATO's ability to continue the war in perpetuity. His come-to-Jesus moment was realizing that this was not merely a US/ZATO-backed Ukrainian war vs. Russia that Russia could eventually win, but a pure US/ZATO war merely fronted by Ukraine vs. Russia that Russia can never win. There is no definition of 'winning' that applies any more - there is no end state based on borders of a reconfigured, smaller Ukraine.
 * 4. Russia is in denial that they are really trying to denazify and demilitarize a direct extension of US/ZATO. The opportunity to make this ONLY about Ukraine leaders' willingness and ability to fight and *their* Ukraine army has passed. They will be replaced by US/ZATO thugs better able to bleed Russia. Russia's time to make Ukraine capitulate has passed. Time is on US/ZATO's side now.
 * 4. Martyanov's arguments for a strategic military victory by Russia are valid, except that he also labors under an old-school end-state where Ukraine either capitulates or is unable to fight any more. He's right in pointing out that US/ZATO equipment scrap-heap donations are meaningless now and Ukraine can't possibly field enough soldiers to make a difference. But he also assumes some kind of imaginary sovereignty and independence of action that Ukraine simply does not have. This kind of surprises me - I would think *he* would be the first to realize Ukraine's insignificance in this war besides being on their real estate.
 * What I can't predict is the particular manner that US/ZATO will take over control of Ukraine and 'the war'. Replace Zelensky/Maidan II? Leave Zelensky but take over Ukraine armed forces with high-level 'Western advisor' command staff? Fake peacekeeping forces/observers while Ukraine is rearmed? Maybe hire Erik Prince and his Blackwater merc army to 'assist' Ukraine forces? All of the above? Who knows? But US/ZATO are psychopathic control freaks. They NEED to control the war completely now and are no longer satisfied with the Ukraine freak show leaders' current efforts. More financial and military support will only come when the US/ZATO are running the show for Ukraine directly. Then it *will* come and it will be endless. It will only be made to *appear* to be a Ukrainian effort.
 * I understand why Russia didn't just declare war, decapitate Ukraine leadership and blitzkrieg Ukraine, but in not doing so they gave US/ZATO the opportunity to secure a zombie pipeline that Russia will never empty or negotiate away. I don't know what the solution for Russia is, but I know the futility of Russia fighting zombies. We're the US - we can send them all day, 24x7, and Russia will bleed fighting them.
 * Posted by: PavewayIV | May 19 2022 4:24 utc | 300
 * I do not know what end-state Russian leadership expects. It appears that there is feeling of entitlement for operation in Donbass, as there has been a referendum in 2014, long attempts on diplomacy, and eventually recognition by Russia. Perhaps, also hope,by some, that it will somehow sort out by itself. However militarily this means fighting against heavily fortified defenses, with nothing unexpected by the opponent. As a consequence, it is slow, involves heavy destruction and casualties, and often flushing defenders from one fortress to the next. It appears set for a long run, but long conflicts sometimes do end. It ended in Chechnya, and Ukrainians are not really zombies. They got pretty efficient war propaganda diminishing opponent and glorifying Western aid. But eventually reality and self-preservation may dawn. It is quite clear that presently they place hopes on Western arms, but they are not Western mentally otherwise. With some hope still left to figure things out. --Resup (talk) 00:12, 21 May 2022 (UTC)
 * I do not know what end-state Russian leadership expects. It appears that there is feeling of entitlement for operation in Donbass, as there has been a referendum in 2014, long attempts on diplomacy, and eventually recognition by Russia. Perhaps, also hope,by some, that it will somehow sort out by itself. However militarily this means fighting against heavily fortified defenses, with nothing unexpected by the opponent. As a consequence, it is slow, involves heavy destruction and casualties, and often flushing defenders from one fortress to the next. It appears set for a long run, but long conflicts sometimes do end. It ended in Chechnya, and Ukrainians are not really zombies. They got pretty efficient war propaganda diminishing opponent and glorifying Western aid. But eventually reality and self-preservation may dawn. It is quite clear that presently they place hopes on Western arms, but they are not Western mentally otherwise. With some hope still left to figure things out. --Resup (talk) 00:12, 21 May 2022 (UTC)

Historic

 * Radio message transmitted by Soviet propagandists to German units surrounded in Stalingrad (“A German soldier dies every seven seconds. Stalingrad, mass grave!»), Military archeology of "Nordlicht", posted on YouTube, Oct 29, 2018 --Resup (talk) 03:20, 26 May 2022 (UTC) (about)

Ukrainian weapons systems destroyed¹ by week (chart)
Week            Air Hel  UAV SAMS  AFV  MRL  Art  Veh Feb 24 – Mar 2   62   ²   53   39  606   67  227  405 Mar 3 – Mar 9    35   ²   54  102  380   40  141  344 Mar 10 – Mar 16  14  13   65   29  393   26  146  419 Mar 17 – Mar 23   1   2   85   32  193   27  119  211 Mar 24 – Mar 30  12   5   84   14  243   35  129  310 Mar 31 – Apr 6    1  18   75   11  188   25  107  213 Apr 7 – Apr 13    6   9   32   18  176   28   75  186 Apr 14 – Apr 20   9   2   63    9  231   14  102  171 Apr 21 – Apr 27   2   5  103   22  213   37  100  172 Apr 28 – May 4    7   1  112   12  211   26  160  215 May 5 – May 11   15  13   95   15  179   39  165  178 May 12 – May 18   8   0  121   10  145   31   91  202 May 19 – May 25   7   2   77   10  108   38  120  164 May 26 – Jun 1    7   2   65    4  107   27   70  160 Jun 2 – Jun 8     7   1   79    9   98   33   82  162 Jun 9 – Jun 15   11   1   55    4   98   33  134  135 Jun 16 – Jun 22   7   1  111    9  181  121  120  171 Jun 23 – Jun 29  13   2   71    4  109   51  971³  98 Jun 30 – Jul 6   10   3   79    0   76   26   43  148 Jul 7 – Jul 13   15   0   55    1  115   20   43  228 Jul 14 – Jul 20  11   7   43    2   85   18   29  121 Jul 21 – Jul 27   0   1   48    3   37    2   33  102 Legend: Air  Aircraft Hel  Helicopters UAV  Unmanned aerial vehicles SAMS Surface-to-air missile systems AFV  Armoured fighting vehicles (tanks, IFVs, APCs, etc.) MRL  Multiple rocket launchers Art  Field artillery pieces and mortars⁴ Veh  Special military vehicles (non-armoured vehicles)

¹ I think that by “destroyed” Russian MoD means “hit”: some systems are truly destroyed, while others are only damaged and re-enter service after repairs.

² The total number of helicopters destroyed during the first two weeks (February 24 – March 9) is 57. Separate data for each week is not available.

³ According to Russian MoD data, Russian forces have destroyed 914 field artillery pieces and mortars from the morning of June 23 to the morning of June 24. What I think happened here is that somebody was supposed to input “14” into the spreadsheet, but instead input “914”, and the higher-ups are either asleep at the wheel and haven’t even noticed the mistake or too proud to admit it and correct the totals.

⁴ It’s unclear whether self-propelled artillery is included in “AFV” or “Art”. I think it’s in “AFV”.

(Compiled from Russian MoD daily briefings. July 28 briefing is missing from the website, but available on Telegram.)

Posted by: S | Jul 30 2022 8:16 utc | 2

Anatoly Sharii
Before the war: larely pro-Russian positions, apart from issues like Crimea. Apparently, high earnings from his youtube channel with large subscription base by Russian/pro-Russian audience (saw him belittling a commenter or subscriber who suggested that he do something else, with some money -making detail mentioned; not saved/bookmarked, but did not like the episode, and stopped watching the channel after this). Also, perhaps some businesses or hobbies in the West. Lived in the West and expecting free speech protection.
 * After the war: youtube is balked at in Russia, even if not blocked; tighter controlled, with possible and actual account suspensions, etc, in the West; he is visited in his home by a group of threatening Ukrainian "well-wishers"; some kind of proceedings to reverse his right to stay in the West. With this or out of his own wits (or both), together with his partner, taking largely pro -Ukr positions, with some claim to be objectively reporting (using Ukr/pro-Ukr phraseology) . I am not really following any of it, after deciding not to watch. But, seeing this, on a humor/spoof channel, decided to make some light checks, on whether he indeed bought body armor and helmets to UAF. Based on his own video on the matter, concluded that he did, with an explanation that is was bought for 19 year old "kids" who were drafted to man checkpoints without any body protection, allegedly not wanting to be there and and having their mommys very worried, so he decided to help, using, as he says, his own, not the subscribers money. This I feel speaks enough for itself.  --Resup (talk) 17:50, 26 November 2022 (UTC)

Ursula says 100000 KIA

 * Oh SH*T, She is busted lying about Ukraine, not good - Redacted w Clayton Morris, November 30, 2022

Just a short video with her here. I thought she may be reusing US general Mark Milley estimate that 100 K may be killed on each sides. Sourcing of either clam, unclear. --Resup (talk) 22:36, 3 December 2022 (UTC)