Talk:Turkish Downing of Russian Su-24

To Do

 * incident mapped
 * compared to 2013 helicopter incident - same area
 * Get other info, analyze/talk, etc.

list and address controversies
 * Russian jets in Turkey? In Syria?
 * Turkish jets in Turkey? In Syria?
 * west-east fire?
 * Warning sent? Received?
 * Other --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:40, 26 November 2015 (UTC)

Warning Received?
As a precedent, consider Iran Air flight 655 (IR655), blown up on July 3, 1988 by US warship. Iran Air had a policy to use a different channel than usual for emergency hailing, for whatever reason - the US claimed not to know that, the USS Vincennes used the usual frequency to warn the airliner before shooting at it, sent an unheard warning, and got no response. Seemed hostile. And they somehow didn't see the flight in their daily registry (it was there), and so followed up on their clusterfuck of inexplicable bad readings of good data, and opened fire with 2 missiles, killing about 300 civilians. In both cases, the people on the other end say/would say they never heard any warning and it felt more like an ambush. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:40, 26 November 2015 (UTC)
 * Still way behind, but this Hurriyet story is consistent with just such a trick here. "Sources" (Turkish) explain:
 * “Russia’s message to us during the Oct. 15 talks was like: ‘We use only one channel in Syria. Contact us through this channel to send your warnings to avoid problems.’ We accepted this, and we have issued all our warnings through this channel since then. As this channel is being used by the U.S. Air Force as well, warnings Turkey has made to Syria have been recorded by both the Russian air base [in Syria] and the Americans at İncirlik base [in Adana].”


 * Although Turkish pilots reportedly warned two Russian warplanes 10 times in five minutes while they were approaching Turkish airspace, there was no response on this special radio channel, sources said.
 * (implied but not likely - the message was sent on that channel)


 * “Despite the agreement with Russia, the fact that both warplanes did not communicate through this channel caused Turkish pilots to profile these planes as ‘Profile: Syria aircraft,’ and consider the situation a ‘serious threat’ as part of the military rules of engagement. One of the aircraft returned to Syrian airspace but the other that insisted on heading toward Hatay was downed by the F16s,” a source said.

--Caustic Logic (talk) 07:13, 28 November 2015 (UTC)

There is a misunderstanding on what the warning was about. Turkey has given multiple warnings to Russia not to bomb their "Turkmen" rebels in Syria. Russia on the other hand considers bombing the Turkish proxy rebels on the border and their arms supply routes as their prime mission. On the leaked tape we hear "You are approaching Turkish airspace. Change your heading south immediately." I do not see any reason why Russia would react to Turkish warnings about operating near the border. There was no warning given that the Su-24 had crossed the border. It could not have been as most likely the A-to-A missile was fired before the Su-24 crossed the Turkish border. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 15:56, 28 November 2015 (UTC)

Who was targeted?
They may be not exactly sure who was there. They get human intelligence information from the Syrian government, so this may affect targets. Their own prime concern are fighters from Russia or near abroad/the former Soviet Union: Chechnya, Dagestan, and "Middle Asia" republics, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan. (Inhabitant of Turkmenistan is called 'turkmen' in Russian; so after this incident some news sources started to use 'turkoman' to make a distinction; probably majority of population in Russia would be unaware there are some 'turkmen' who are NOT from Turkmenistan) --Resup (talk) 16:50, 28 November 2015 (UTC)
 * Who are Syrian turkmen, by Ilshat Saetov, director of Russian-Turkish studies center at the Russian state library, 30.11.2015 (Russian). Syria second largest ethnic group after Arabs, 3.5 million people. Somewhat close to those in Turkmenistan (share Turkic language, but  different peoples, Middle Eastern with more Turkish Ottoman identity. They now have three mini-dialect - one - close to the Turkish and the second is similar to the modern Azerbaijan, and the third - ottoman Turkish, with many Arabic and Persian words). Mostly sunni, but some alevites and shiite. Many live in Homs and Hama (place of Hama massacre of 1982).  Majority of them do not support Assad (unclear how many, or how strongly). Some joined FSA,  and some  al-Nusra. They also fight IS, not just Assad. Syrian government tries to control border with Turkey and so has fights with those Turkmen who joined the rebels there  .... --Resup (talk) 05:01, 30 November 2015 (UTC)

US involvement?
(Link on the main page). Maybe US indeed provided navigation, but it could be fairly routine and not specific to the shoot down; decision could be still made by Turkey. For conspiracy scenario, there needs to be a benefit to do all this. If the plan was to make Russia leave (something like operation Rimon 20 from 1970's), then here it badly failed and caused the exactly opposite reaction by Russia. That would mean a huge miscalculation, basically having no clue what the effect would be. For something milder, like preventing a broad coalition, the cost of a dangerous escalation with NATO is not worth the benefit, as broad coalition was not doing too well even without this. But the end result is strengthened Russian involvement, and more military support to Assad, with a potential for a very serious escalation. If it was a Western conspiracy, I gather it badly failed. NATO presented this as something between Turkey and Russia; and it may well be, indeed. --Resup (talk) 02:08, 1 December 2015 (UTC)

Events leading to the shoot-down:
 * Turkey seeks U.N. Security Council meeting on Turkmens in Syria: sources, Reuters, 23 Nov. 2015
 * US special forces to arrive in Syria 'very soon' as Assad hails Russian airstrikes, The Guardian, Nov 23, 2015. "The troops will help organise local forces battling the self-proclaimed Islamic State in northern Syria, according to special envoy Brett McGurk."
 * Turkey has been upset that the US troops will be deployed in support of the YPG,  Juan Cole, "Informed Comment", November 23, 2015
 * US air force Gen Selva visits Ankara to discuss terror, Syria, Daily Sabah,  Istanbul, 23 Nov 2015.

Accordingly, a high ranking US Air force general was present in Turkey shortly prior to the events, but the reason could be the anticipated joint action with the Kurds while trying to reassure unhappy Turkish 'allies' ; and perhaps visiting Incirlik Airmen supporting OIR mission. It does not appear likely it was a visit to arrange a shoot down of a Russian plane. Such decision would not be up to an air force general, or US military in general, which is under civilian control, by the president and his defense secretary, and it is a bit far fetched to think those were scheming to shoot down a Russian SU-24, kill the pilot and a marine, and show all that on youtube. But it is plausible that his presence was used in somebody insane/unstable/deeply flawed calculation. --Resup (talk) 14:49, 5 December 2015 (UTC)

Effect on trade
Several strong statements were made. It is understandable that this causes strong emotions, but hope they can approach trade with a cool head. Economic situation in Russia is not great, affecting many people who are supported from government budget; majority of them have little or nothing to do with this, but they would be the ones mostly severely affected. Income and security considerations, yes, broken friendships-perhaps not ( --and they were not such a great friends to begin with...)--Resup (talk) 17:34, 28 November 2015 (UTC)
 * As of 2013, Russian exports to Turkey: 25 bln dollars, 70-75% of which was energy resources; imports from Turkey: 6.97 bln dollars, according to official data--Resup (talk) 02:29, 29 November 2015 (UTC)


 * Turkey make Russian ships wait for hours to cross the Bosporus -report and video
 * Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Bosporus Straits The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which entered into force in November 1994, has prompted calls for the Montreux Convention to be revised and adapted to make it compatible with UNCLOS's regime governing straits used for international navigation. However, Turkey's long-standing refusal to sign UNCLOS has meant that Montreux remains in force without further amendments (Wikipedia).

Countries who are not planning to shoot down Russian planes

 * Israel, 29.11.2015
 * Greece, 30.11.2015--Resup (talk) 02:44, 30 November 2015 (UTC)