Talk:Alleged chemical attack, March 19, 2013

No Evidence for Rebel CW Capability?
One of the core issues in what's increasingly recognized asa distressing "whodunnit" is who could have done it. The rebels are not known to possess Scud missiles or deadly nerve agents. But neither is it known for sure just what chemicals were used and how they were really delivered. And it's entirely possible that, collectively, the opposition's forces have a number of capabilities that aren't known, by the public. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:34, 23 March 2013 (UTC) For example, White House press secretary Jay Carney said they had “no information suggesting opposition groups have chemical weapons capability.”" Whether or not they have it, there is information available, and we still don't know exactly what was used, so it's stupid to say no anti-government faction could possibly have, or be willing to use, the system used on March 19 against a government-held part of Khan Al-Assal. Further details forthcoming ... --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:34, 23 March 2013 (UTC)

Was it even CW?
The statements about rebels lacking CW capabilities starts to look uncomfortable next to the emerging opinion that whatever hit Khan Al-Assal, it was not quite CW. Maybe some kind of cheap knock-off, chlorine and something, concocted by some ... scoundrels, somewhere. And then it got dispersed, hey, these things happen, in contested cities, next to a concentration of government soldiers. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:34, 23 March 2013 (UTC) CNN reported, March 22:
 * U.S. President Barack Obama and other American officials have said in recent days there was no intelligence to substantiate reports that rebels used chemical weapons against government troops. Now analysts are also "leaning hard away" from the notion that Syria used chemical weapons against its own people, a U.S. military official directly familiar with the preliminary analysis told CNN. That official told CNN "there are strong indications now that chemical weapons were not used by the regime in recent days." The official would not detail the indications.
 * [...]
 * An analysis of video of hospitalized Syrians released by state-run TV suggests people are not suffering from a chemical weapons attack ... Analysts believe it's possible people in the video were deliberately exposed to a "caustic" agent such as chlorine. But that would not be the same as using a chemical weapons as defined by international treaties, such as a nerve or blister agent.
 * "Something went down, but it was short of a chemical weapon," a senior State Department official told CNN. The official was speaking on condition of anonymity for the same reason as the other two officials. NATO and U.S. radar or satellite intelligence also do not indicate there was a launch of a missile at the time Syrians say the alleged attack occurred, according to the military official.
 * Okay, so maybe it was a rocket (are those detectable with the same magic?), or mortar (not likely car bomb or it would be reported as such) or somehow delivered, it was chemical and "caustic," perhaps deliberate, it killed 25-31 people including many soldiers, and injured 110. But there's evidence the government didn't do it, suggesting the rebels did, so it's suddenly not a chemical weapon, just some "short of" stuff. Because Obama never even specified what he'd do if the rebels crossed his "red line?" Well it might be specified soon - they drop the issue again, figuring Syria shouldjust be happy not to be blamed and poosibly bombed over it. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:32, 22 March 2013 (UTC) and moved --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:34, 23 March 2013 (UTC)

I move that we refer to a deadly attack with toxic gas as a use of chemical weapons, and expose the distinction described here as semantics. If this was a deliberate gassing, whoever did it crossed the redline, even if a bit. If it's the side we're allowed to arm, they've shown what they'll do if they ever get ahold of the real CWs. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:43, 23 March 2013 (UTC)

And besides, I for one think the video supports nerve agents being used - the patients we see are variously convulsing mildly, unconscious, dead, or eyes crossed, spaced-out looking. I'm no expert, but I think these nervous systems have been tweaked. I don't see what special gear you need here - Their bodies already absorbed what they did. What, they're going to cough out a chemical-ized gob of phlegm?. It's not a contagious bio-hazard, nor radiological. Not that they could be sure, but they might, as noted, just be under-supplied too. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:43, 23 March 2013 (UTC)

Rebel Chemical Holdings
Chemicals that rebels might have had as of March 19: Chlorine: reported, as of early December, 2012; Rebels reportedly seized industrial amounts. AFP via Ynet, Dec. 8:
 * "Terrorist groups may resort to using chemical weapons against the Syrian people... after having gained control of a toxic chlorine factory" east of Aleppo, the foreign ministry said, using the government term for rebel groups.
 * It added that Damascus would never use such weapons against its own people.
 * The ministry was believed to be referring to the Syrian-Saudi Chemicals Company (SYSACCO) factory near Safira, which was taken over earlier this week by militants from the jihadist Al-Nusra Front.--Caustic Logic (talk) 23:26, 19 March 2013 (UTC)

B-Z, Agent 15, or similar: suggested, possibly, by Dec. 23, 2012. (see Alleged Chemical Attack, December 23, 2012) Six rebel fighters died and others were injured by poison gas that caused breathing and nerve problems, paralysis and hallucinations. It was decided by the enemies if Syria (US, Turkey, etc.) that the government gassed them, but with a poorly-used riot control gas, making it not an intentional CW attack. But it had otherwise looked like Agent 15 or BZ, the latter of which had been reportedly used by Iraqi insurgents (Al Qaeda?) on themselves "to pump up their aggressiveness." Now that Jabhat Al-Nusra, Al-Qaeda in Iraq-in Syria, is around, how did the insurgents get themselves gassed? Is the official story the opposite of true? Rather than being gassed by others for riot control, did they do it themselves to uncontrollably riot? Did the people who slashed whole families in AL-Houla, for instance, have this berzerker poison? --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:35, 23 March 2013 (UTC)

Potassium Chlorate and Various others: Willingness to use poison gas "against enemies of God," apparently signaled by chemical experiments on rabbits, along with threats against Syria's Alawites, and demonstrations of the large stock of Turkish-made chemicals they already had late in 2012 (see Tekkim Chemical Test Video). It is entirely possible from the timing of its release especially (two days after Obama's "red line" statements), that this is a hoax video. But it's also quite possibly a genuine threat, and demonstration of capabilities not "known." --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:34, 23 March 2013 (UTC)

Pesticides: For what it's worth, one theory on the Dec. 23 incident "Mousab Azzawi, chairman of the London-based Syrian Network for Human Rights and a doctor, told NBC News that his organization had received reports from three eyewitnesses on Sunday. He said field doctors in Homs were seeing patients “losing consciousness, experiencing severe shortness of breath and vomiting. To our understanding, this is similar to poisoning with pesticide,” he said, although he was not aware of any pesticide that could take the form of a gas."

And in the March 19 attack, Echothiophate, a chemical often found in insecticides, is mentioned (see agents, below)

Propulsion: Rebel Rockets
see Rebel Rocket/Missile Acquisition The Syrian rebel fighters probably import, and definitely manufacture and they steal rockets and missiles, as well as other things like mortars, capable of lobbing poison gasses if properly fitted. In February, for example, it seems they were in possession of at least one possible Scud missile with launching truck (something of the same scale, anyway, perhaps inoperative, perhaps not), claiming to have just found at least two of the things between Deir EzZor and Raqqah, an area just the being pounded by alleged Scud attacks, and soon conquered by rebels.

The Alleged Agent(s)
Some contenders examined. One at least. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:26, 19 March 2013 (UTC)

Chlorine
Reuters' photographer heard at two hospitals:"people had said they could smell chlorine after the attack." Several others cite this, and I think the photographer says he smelled it too. It's a pretty consistent theme. Details as I run across them again. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:25, 24 March 2013 (UTC)

CNN :Analysts believe it's possible people in the video were 'deliberately exposed to a "caustic" agent such as chlorine. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:25, 24 March 2013 (UTC)

UK Channel 4's Chief Correspondent Alex Thomson, one of the few journalists willing to venture into Syria and verify reports, had dispatches ready only by March 23. But they were "the most detailed account yet of what the Syrians believe happened," drawing on Syrian sources, un-named, with military and medical sources of their own.
 * Syria believes the chemical involved was a relatively small amount of chlorine gas, namely CL17 which was dissolved into saline solution in a home-made rocket. Two separate military sources have confirmed to Channel 4 News that it was a rocket and not a shell. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:25, 24 March 2013 (UTC)

Agent 15, Chlorine, and Phosphorous
This precise combination was reported by Debkafile on March 20, citing an unnamed Western official, with evidence not specified. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:11, 20 March 2013 (UTC) :
 * Western military sources have told DEBKA file that three chemicals were believed present in the Scud B rocket which exploded in the Aleppo neighborhood of Khan al-Assal Tuesday March 19: phosphorus, chlorine and Agent 15 or BZ. Although the Assad regime and the rebels charged each other with firing the rocket, which killed 15-31 people and injured more than a hundred, it was not possible to verify which side was actually responsible. The White House denied it was the rebels, while Moscow insisted that it was, in support of the accusation from Damascus.
 * The assumption in Israeli security circles is that either or both sides may have tried a one-shot use of a chemical weapon to test the limits of world-power tolerance. The incapacitating Agent 15 which causes choking is the least harmful of Assad’s chemical arsenal. A US army spokesman said the American armed forces had plans for intervening in the Syrian conflict if chemical weapons were used.

BZ or Agent 15 is one suspect for the apparent poison gassing of some rebel fighters in Homs on December 23, 2012. That's odd given there were alsoclaims of some kind of gas attack in Homs the same day, March 19, as the incident under discussion. (see March 19 Homs attack) --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:11, 20 March 2013 (UTC) and --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:26, 21 March 2013 (UTC)

Similar Guesses
Reuters, citing SANA TV: "An unidentified doctor interviewed on the channel said the attack was either "phosphorus or poison" but did not elaborate."

Chemical weapons likely used in Syria, but detection window closed, expert says By Joshua Rhett Miller, Fox News, March 20, 2013 Christopher Harmer, a senior naval analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, and the former deputy director of future operations at the U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet:
 * The most likely deployment of the weapons, according to Harmer, was a crude, unguided rocket attack, which coincides with reporting from the Syrian state-run SANA news agency. Choking agents like chlorine and phosgene could also be packed into a truck to be exploded, much like an improvised explosive device, Harmer said.

Echothiophate
Washington DC-based Syrian [sic] Support Group issued a March 21 statement highlighting the core rebel point that there were TWO chemical attacks, and claiming that both were done with "chemical warfare agent simulant," echothiophate, "found most frequently in insecticides." They claim the chemical is confirmed by (opposition field clinic?) doctors in Damascus, presumed for Aleppo. Interesting alleged choice. According to Wikipedia, its adverse effects "include muscle spasm and other systemic effects" that can last over a week, it has medical uses in eye ailments (glaucoma), and is in worldwide shortage (or was). Perfect obscure choice for eye doctor president Assad? --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:57, 23 March 2013 (UTC)

Super Tear Gas
“Super-strength tear gas," not a nerve agent, was used in the Khan Al-Assal incident, the Sunday Times reported, citing analysts at Porton Down military research institute in the UK. They cite video clues to cast doubt on nerve agents, and claim to have soil samples collected by British spies "for further analysis," not completed at time of speculative reporting. Tear gas(ses) are totally distinct from the widely-smelled chlorine. How and by whom it was dispersed, whether in the reported rocket/missile or in a more usual way, is not made clear. This is the same exact explanation used to dismiss the alleged CW attack of December 23, but it wont likely work so well here. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:25, 24 March 2013 (UTC) The Israelis are big on this Sunday Times thing. YNet News reports:
 * After investigation, it is looking more and more likely that there was no use of chemical weapons in the attack last week in the city of Halab, in which 30 died and nearly 100 were injured. This according to a report issued by the UK newspaper The Sunday Times.
 * Initial reports from the center for military studies in the city of Wiltshire show that the agent that was used in the attack was tear gas in a particularly potent form, and not any form of a nerve gas.
 * Initial reports from the center for military studies in the city of Wiltshire show that the agent that was used in the attack was tear gas in a particularly potent form, and not any form of a nerve gas.


 * Scientists from the military research facility are examining samples collected from the site of the attack by British MI6 agents. Agents have been assisted in the investigation, by photos of the victims being treated in a Syrian hospital.
 * Translation - analysis not done, guess work from videos/photos constitutes the investigation this opinion was issued after. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:21, 25 March 2013 (UTC)

Victims and Doctors
Reuters, from SANA video at the hospital:
 * Syrian state TV aired footage of what it said were casualties of the attack arriving at one hospital in Aleppo. Men, women and children were rushed inside on stretchers as doctors inserted medical drips into their arms and oxygen tubes into their mouths. None had visible wounds to their bodies, but some interviewed said they had trouble breathing.


 * An unidentified doctor interviewed on the channel said the attack was either "phosphorus or poison" but did not elaborate. A young girl on a stretcher wept as she said: "My chest closed up. I couldn't talk. I couldn't breathe ... We saw people falling dead to the floor. My father fell, he fell and now we don't know where he is. God curse them, I hope they die." A man in a green surgical mask, who said he had been helping to evacuate the casualties, said: "It was like a powder, and anyone who breathed it in fell to the ground."


 * An earlier version had the following paragraph, still preserved in an MSNBC citation. But it's now removed from Reuters (Google search shows it tthere, but the cache is already empty).--Caustic Logic (talk) 11:45, 20 March 2013 (UTC)
 * "The Free Syrian Army hit us with a rocket, we smelled something and then everyone got dizzy and fell down. People were falling to the ground, " said a sobbing woman, lying on a stretcher with a drip in her arm.

Rebels
Reuters
 * A rebel fighter in Khan al-Assal, ... Ahmed al-Ahmed, from the Ansar brigade in a rebel-controlled military base near Khan al-Assal, told Reuters that a missile had hit the town at around 8 a.m. (0600 GMT).
 * "We were about 2 km from the blast. It was incredibly loud and so powerful that everything in the room started falling over. When I finally got up to look at the explosion, I saw smoke with a pinkish-purple color rising up.
 * Range: 2 km? --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:59, 20 March 2013 (UTC)
 * "I didn't smell anything, but I did not leave the building I was in," said Ahmed, speaking via Skype. "The missile, maybe a Scud, hit a regime area, praise God, and I'm sure that it was an accident. My brigade certainly does not have that (chemical) capability and we've been talking to many units in the area, they all deny it."
 * Ahmed said the explosion was quickly followed by an air strike. A fighter jet circled a police school held by the rebels on the outskirts of Khan al-Assal and bombed the area, he said. His account could not be independently verified.


 * ...a senior rebel commander, Qassim Saadeddine ...[said] "We were hearing reports from early this morning about a regime attack on Khan al-Assal, and we believe they fired a Scud with chemical agents," he told Reuters by telephone from Aleppo.

NYT
 * Another rebel commander, Abdul Jabbar al Okaidi, head of the rebel military council in Aleppo, said in a telephone interview that he had witnessed the attack, describing it as an errant strike on a government-controlled neighborhood, by Syrian warplanes flying at high altitude. He said the explosions from the attack emitted what he described as a gas that appeared to cause suffocation, and that some victims had been treated in a rebel field hospital. The commander ridiculed government assertions that the rebels had chemical weapons. “We don’t even have ammunition for our Kalashnikovs,” he said.

March 19 Homs attack
Curiously, the rebel-fighter-informed Local Coordination Committees (LCC) failed to mention anything about Khan Al-Assal or toxic gas anywhere around Aleppo, in their daily summary for March 19. A Scud impact was reported in Anadan town, 13 km due north of Khan Al-Assal. And a gas attack did make the report - a different one, in the Baba Amr district of the central city Homs. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:11, 20 March 2013 (UTC) and correction --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:16, 24 March 2013 (UTC)
 * Homs: Several cases of asphyxia were reported in Baba Amr due to releasing toxic gases by the regime’s forces on the neighborhood

No further details were given, but a Debkafile report (same as linked above) conveyed several indications supportive of the impression:
 * Extensive preparations by Syrian army units for launching chemical weapons against rebel forces have been sighted in the northern town of Homs, Western intelligence agencies told DEBKAfile’s military sources Tuesday, March 19.
 * Western intelligence sources reckoned that for the Assad regime, Homs, the scene of fierce battles between government and rebel forces in recent days, is likely to be the first place where the Assad government turns to chemical warfare.
 * DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the importance Assad attaches to carrying the day in Homs is represented by the elite units he has assembled in and around the city: Heavy armored forces of the 4th and 5th Republican Guard Divisions were imported from Damascus and the 18th and 19th Divisions are there too, issued in the last few hours with chemical warfare gear. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:11, 20 March 2013 (UTC)

March 19 Damascus attack
Russia's and Syria's demand for an investigation at the UN have come up against Western roadblocks, insisting on a different format. One difference - they want to look into another alleged attack as well. Not the Baba Amr one, but yet another, Damascus area. Without even looking, knowing the bizarre pattern of reflections between these attacks, Daraya will probably be the place. (Dec. 6 Daraya, Dec 8 Aleppo area, Dec 22 Daraya, Dec 23 Homs = March 19 Aleppo area, Homs, Daraya?) A later Reuters report follows this interesting story:
 * British deputy ambassador Philip Parham and French ambassador Gerard Araud said their position, and that of the majority of council members, was that the U.N. must investigate both alleged chemical weapon attacks.
 * "The (Syrian) National Coalition issued a statement today saying that there had been two cases of chemical weapons being used in Syria yesterday, one in the Damascus area and one in the Aleppo area," Parham said.
 * "The facts are not clear at the moment," he said. "What we have is reports and allegations. They are very serious and they need to be investigated."

Damascus and Moscow both have called this a diversion, dillution, and/or stalling tactic. Syria's ambassador Ja'afari said he'd never heard of this other allegation, proposing that it "was set up on purpose to torpedo the investigation on the real use of chemical weapons which took place in Aleppo. If there were any good intentions on the part of the French delegation they should have supported the Syrian request (for an investigation)."--Caustic Logic (talk) 09:46, 21 March 2013 (UTC)

Looking for this statement, it doesn't pop up easily. CNN has a quote, suggesting I was wrong about it being Daraya.
 * The town of Ateibeh, in eastern Damascus, endured "fierce shelling with chemical rockets," an opposition group said. An unknown number of casualties were reported.

This group is not the SNC, but the LCC, from the same page I linked to above and scoured. I thought I searched for "chemical," but apparently missed this entry. In full, then:
 * Damascus Suburbs: Ateibeh: Regime forces steps up its military operations in the towns of Eastern Ghouta and uses new types of weapons to eliminate the peaceful and armed revolutionary movement and to terrorise the rest of the residents in other Syrian areas, fierce shelling with chemical rockets targeted Ateibeh town today which resulted in martyrs and a large number of wounded, including suffocating and nausea cases and headache, vomiting and hysteria cases, note that these cases are being documented for the first time in the town and were not seen like this before, in addition to the bad humanitarian situation in light of the applied siege since months and continued shelling and large numbers of wounded were reported amid an acute shortage of materials and medical staff --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:19, 21 March 2013 (UTC)

Best guess for locale on Wikimapia: Otaybah, could be Ateibeh. Cited in relation to Eastern Ghouta. Ghouta seems to be all over the eastern/NE fringes of Damascus in somehow related parcels. This is just on the other side, southeast, of that area. Just NE of it, ateibeh-lake. Closer yet, a SAM site and air defense base. Yalla Souriya - catalog of recent fighting reports EA WorldView picked this spot too. (see below) --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:40, 22 March 2013 (UTC)

A Turkish source says "Syrian national coalition refutes use of chemical weapons ... adding that the photos and footage confirmed use of chemical weapons." (??) In fact, they just denied the gov't report and added, cryptically as read, "The coalition stated on Wednesday that Assad regime was continuing its attacks against Syrian people, and killed 19 and wounded 86 during its attacks in Damascus and Aleppo ... all evidences indicate that Assad regime used chemical weapons on Syrian people, stated the coalition ... The coalition asked international organizations to set up a committee to investigate the incidents in Syria, and said that the interim government was ready to guarantee the safe entrance of the committee in the country.''
 * And that is a guarantee they can deliver on. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:19, 21 March 2013 (UTC)

AP: Syria regime, rebels want probe of chemical attack
 * "All evidence now indicates that the Assad regime is using these weapons against its own people," the main Western-backed opposition group, the Syrian National Coalition, said. "The Coalition demands a full international investigation, and asks for a delegation to be sent to inquire and visit the site," the group said in a statement.
 * Even an exact quote doesn't make this statement itself pop up easily, just many, many re-posts of this article. But at least we have a quote. "All evidence," huh? --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:41, 22 March 2013 (UTC)

Enduring America on Al Otaybah Attack
James Miller/EA WorldView investigation: Syria Special: Assessing Tuesday's "Chemical Weapons Attacks"...and Who is Responsible He's complying with the oppositon/UK/French demand to investigate that one too. And I encourage that. I'm curious, and will have a look soon. Section for assessing at least 2 things: details of the other attack(s) and relative handling of the Khan Al-Assal one. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:40, 22 March 2013 (UTC)


 * He has a new piece out where he has a hard time dealing with the US denial... And a video of "a doctor" in Damascus alleging some specific stuff was used ... watched for a few seconds and thought "Hi, Khaled Abu Saleh!". Maybe i'm just paranoid, cue Jihad Raslan next ... hehehe. --CE (talk) 16:26, 22 March 2013 (UTC)
 * A little similar. I notice the passive aggressive appeals. They would prefer bombing, but in fact, they don't want weapons, only medicine, for the innocent people, like this likely rebel fighter. Contrast with their ostensible military leader Gen. Saelm Idriss: ""We don't want food and drink, and we don't want bandages. When we're wounded, we want to die. The only thing we want is weapons." Analysis and thoughts later. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:49, 22 March 2013 (UTC)

Timing
The days surrounding the the March 19 alleged chemical attack(s), trying to cross Obama's "red line," feature an odd abundance of signals and invitations to get the line crossed. Red line of course refers to Obama's announcement of December 3, 2012, that any use of chemical weapons by, as it's decided, the Syrian government will, in fact, lead to U.S. military intervention. This was followed by the first allegations of just that on December 6, 8, 22, and 23, at least.

For months, few if any such claims came across the wires. None have been confirmed. Then, on March 15, the rebellion had its two-year anniversary, and the conflict began its third year, with chances for everyone to make their various statements on the occasion. As a birthday present to the rebellion, the U.S. treasury issued a decree allowing private US citizens to finance the Syrian rebels, if they want to be heroes. Reuters, March 15:
 * The U.S. government said Friday it would allow American citizens, companies and banks to send money to Syrian opposition forces struggling to topple President Bashar al-Assad. The Treasury Department move exempts Syrian rebels from broad U.S. sanctions against aid to Syria imposed at the beginning of the 2-year-old government crackdown on opposition forces that has killed an estimated 70,000 people.
 * (aid to the sovereign government is still not permitted) --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:36, 24 March 2013 (UTC)
 * "The United States is committed to supporting the Syrian people's aspirations for a Syrian-led political transition to a democratic, inclusive, and peaceful Syria," said the Treasury Department, which controls financial sanctions. "The Syrian government has sacrificed all legitimacy in its violent attempts to cling to power."
 * (legitimacy stems from abject surrender to our demands to surrender to the people of Syria (from 29 countries)) --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:36, 24 March 2013 (UTC)

The leadership of the "Syrian-led transition" spoken of finally elected, with a few dozen votes cast on March 18, a new Prime Minister of Syria, if the opposition wins. Ghassan Hitto, a naturalized U.S. citizen and member of the Syrian American Council, was their choice. CNN reported "the Syrian American Council ... said the decision should assuage the Obama administration's concerns about who would lead Syria should President Bashar al-Assad be deposed. "This question has now been answered," the council's statement said."

Also on on March 18, CNN reported:
 * Secretary of State John Kerry said Monday that the United States would not hamper the arming of Syrian rebels by allies. "President Obama has made it clear that the United States does not stand in the way of other countries that have made a decision to provide arms," he said. His comments, made at the State Department, come as Britain and France urge the European Union to lift the weapons embargo in order to arm moderate Syrian rebels. Kerry spoke of an unfortunate military "imbalance" in Syria. In fighting the Syrian people (from 29 different countries), Keery complained, "President Assad is receiving help from the Iranians, he's receiving help from al Qaeda-related, some elements, he's receiving help from Hezbollah, and obviously some help is coming in through the Russians.

Early on the 19th, the Khan Al-Assal attack happened. Probably after this but before the news really spread, the top U.S. military commander in Europe - Adm. James Stavridis - said that NATO was laying out plans for possible military attacks on Syria. With the plans, "American forces would be prepared if called upon by the United Nations and member countries" - like if the "red line" were deemed crossed. After the attack, there was "careful" examination, the war hawks screeching for war, and Obama himself getting as close to Syria as ever. He visited Israel for the first time as president March 20, in a pre-announced trip to discuss, by and large, Iran and Syria. The opinions of the Israelis, with their special insights onto the dangers of poison gas, would be seen as crucial for what happened next on the U.S. side.

Considering all these factors about when the alleged regime Scud came down, it's clear that the morning of March 19 was an especially poor time for Damascus to cross the red line of its own accord, and a very opportune one for any rebel provocateurs to do it for them. Someone made a decision, apparently, to seize the moment offered by this confluence of other people's decisions. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:37, 20 March 2013 (UTC) and --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:36, 24 March 2013 (UTC)

World Reaction
The following will be the more detailed version's of some key countries' reactions, allowing for briefer summaries on the front page. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:48, 23 March 2013 (UTC)

Syria
Forthcoming, if needed - it's built in to other stuff more.

Russia
Moscow's reaction to the allegations was, predictably, quite different from the West's, and right from the start, as the Voice of Russia website presented it: First they "denied" it - or rather, "Russian diplomats in Damascus haven’t confirmed" the claims of a rebel attack. This was contrasted with the claim that "a number of Western news agencies earlier claimed that anti-Assad forces had launched a missile with chemical weapons," which they really didn't to any meaningful degree, if at all. But within about two hours, the Syrian government's claims gained traction. Moscow apparently found no sufficient hurdles to accepting that the rebels in Aleppo had deadly chemicals and were willing to use them. VoR:
 * "Information coming  from  Damascus  indicates  that  the  use  of chemical weapons  by the  armed opposition  was recorded  in the  Aleppo province early on March 19," the ministry said in a statement  available on its website. Moscow sees  this  fact  as  "a  new  and  extremely  alarming  and dangerous turn in the events in the Syrian crisis." "We are extremely, seriously concerned by the fact that weapons  of mass destruction have gotten into  militants' hands, which is  worsening the situation in  the SAR  even more  and brings  confrontation in  this country to a new level," it said. ( I was unable to find this original statement anywhere on the site http://www.mid.ru/) --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:48, 23 March 2013 (UTC)

Moscow "urged all sensible forces in  Syria  to stop  violence" and move towards talks, as per the Geneva communique of June, 2012. As other world powers inched towards blaming Damascus for the attact, the Russians followed with a demand for an investigation to first set the blame accurately. This began with a bit of backtracking; as Xinhua reported, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov said on his Twitter account "The news about use of chemical weapons in Syria must be thoroughly investigated. So far, there are no credible evidences of that." The concern that CW "have gotten into militants' hands" became a prediction that they might, or might have; Gatilov added "we have already warned about the danger that chemical weapons could fall into the rebels' hands, which would push Syrian crisis to a new level of confrontation." The demand for an investigation was fused with a Syrian one: as Reuters reported, Syria's representative at the United Nations, Dr. Bashar Al-Ja'afari, said "the Syrian government has requested the Secretary-General of the United Nations to form a specialized, independent and a neutral, technical mission to investigate the use by the terrorist groups operating in Syria of chemical weapons yesterday against civilians." A U.N. spokesman said they had recieved the request and were considering it.

Russia supported that request. However, both they and Syria complained, the UK and France blocked it. They wanted instead a probe into the rebel version, dividing attention also with a second alleged chemical attack of the same day, near Damascus. As Reuters reported: "Russia's U.N. envoy disagreed strongly with the idea of focusing an urgently needed U.N. investigation on multiple incidents. ... ""To me, a concern which I expressed in the council, was that this was really a way to delay the need for immediate, urgent investigation of allegations pertaining to March 19 by raising all sorts of issues," (Churkin) said." Ja'afari agreed, saying he'd never heard of this other allegation, proposing that it "was set up on purpose to torpedo the investigation on the real use of chemical weapons which took place in Aleppo. If there were any good intentions on the part of the French delegation they should have supported the Syrian request (for an investigation)."''

This concern could be heightened by the fact that yet another March 19 chemical attack was reported in Baba Amr, Homs (see March 19 Homs attack), thanks to the Local Coordination Committees. These collectors of reports from rebel commanders and other sources reported a Damascus chem. attack, as well as the Homs incident. But somehow they missed the big, proven one in Aleppo. Taken together, this could require a three-part probe, and suggests it was the rebels themselves who might have launched the "torpedo" Ja'afari spoke of, to help cloud the picture of what happened in Aleppo, and cause eyes to glaze over with overwhelmed confusion.

Iran
Al-Akhbar English reported:
 * "The Islamic republic of Iran strongly condemns the inhumane act by armed opposition groups in using chemical weapons in the city of Aleppo," foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said.

The Associated Press added:
 * "Undoubtedly, the responsibilities of a repetition of such crimes would fall on those committing it and the countries that support them," [Mehmanparast] was quoted by state TV as saying, apparently referring to Gulf states such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia

United States
Initially, the United States cast doubt on both poison gas allegations. An Associated Press report, "U.S.: No evidence of chemical weapons use in Syria," passed on the White House dismissal of Syria's story, and added "a U.S. official told the AP there was no evidence either side had used such weapons Tuesday in an attack in northern Syria, disputing a competing claim by rebels that it was regime forces who fired the chemical weapon."

The New York Times ran a report by Anne Barnard capturing well the Washington mindset after that. The core point underlying it is, as an official said, "the White House had “no information suggesting opposition groups have chemical weapons capability.”" Jay Carney, the White House press secretary, "said the administration was “deeply skeptical” of the assertions by President Assad’s government, and added that the manner they were examining the evidence was "carefully." Therefore, "In Washington, the White House cast doubt on claims that the opposition had used chemical weapons and said it was evaluating the possibility that the government had used them."

Since rebel chemicals and/or Scuds and/or fighters were ruled out, a long string of possible interpretations of Damascus' explanation were offered in the Times article:
 * "Some American officials worried aloud about whether the Syrian government was accusing rebels of using the weapons to prepare cover for its own future use of them."
 * "Anti-government activists suggested that the government might have concocted the chemical attack story to cover up an episode in which it accidentally fired a Scud missile on a government-held area."
 * "At the State Department, a spokeswoman also dismissed the Syrian government’s claim as an effort to distract from its use of long-range Scud missiles against civilians."
 * "The spokeswoman, Victoria Nuland, said the United States was looking into rebel claims that the government had used chemical weapons and tried to blame its opponents."

Senate war hawks took advantage of the chance to blame and then punish the government of Syria; ABC News reported on Republican Senators Lindsey Graham and John McCain, urging President Obama to militarily attack Syria, “if today’s reports are substantiated." They fail to specify what would constitute "substantiated," but rightly point out that “President Obama has said that the use of weapons of mass destruction by Bashar Assad is a ‘red line’ for him that ‘will have consequences." They urged him to follow up, if it was decided the line had been crossed.

At a press conference in Israel with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on his pre-announced visit of March 20, President Obama re-affirmed that the use of CW would be a "game changer" in Syria, perhaps forcing action. "“We intend to investigate thoroughly exactly what happened,” Mr. Obama said. “I’ve instructed my teams to find out precisely what happened, what we can document, what we can prove. ... Once we establish the facts, I have made clear that the use of chemical weapons is a game changer."

Over the following days, unofficial signals went both ways. On the one hand, Washington backed down from claims the government used CW, towards its initial position that nothing much happened. On the 20th, former Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford testified to a House Committee “So far we have no evidence to substantiate the reports that chemical weapons were used yesterday.” CNN reported "analysts are also "leaning hard away" from the notion that Syria used chemical weapons against its own people." An unnamed "U.S. military official directly familiar with the preliminary analysis" said "there are strong indications now that chemical weapons were not used by the regime in recent days." This was apparently based on video analysis by which "analysts believe it's possible" the victims were somehow "deliberately exposed to a "caustic" agent such as chlorine." There's at least a semantical case to brand that not a chemical weapo attack, as with, say, Sarin nerve gas. "Something went down, but it was short of a chemical weapon," a senior State Department official told CNN. Furthermore, "NATO and U.S. radar or satellite intelligence also do not indicate there was a launch of a missile at the time Syrians say the alleged attack occurred, according to the military official." The regime neither used chemical weapons nor fired any Scud missiles, the analysis suggests. This increasingly allows any attack that did happen to have been a rebel attack, although all official U.S. sources carefully maintain, as the core point, that it wasn't.

And on the other hand, U.S. House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R, Mich) continued the congressional war-drum-beating unabated. On the 20th, he said there was a "high probability to believe that chemical weapons were used," and used by the government. He called for pre-emptive strikes “to remove their capability to use chemical weapons on civilians,” because  “If we know of their intention to use these chemical weapons and don't do anything about it, that is a stain on our national character." Even after the above-described back-tracking, he was willing to urge immediate intervention, telling CBS News "Face the Nation" that "I think that it is abundantly clear that that red line has been crossed. There is mounting evidence that it is probable that the Assad regime has used at least a small quantity of chemical weapons during the course of this conflict." In case that wasn't sufficient, "Rogers said the fact that President Bashar al-Assad has ordered scud missile attacks on civilians "in and of itself should prompt action." The "wholesale slaughter" of Syrian rebels and civilians, he said, "is now spilling up to the doorstep of Israel." (The same day, Israeli forces had destroyed a machine gun position that fired on them from the rebel-held Golan heights)

Israel
CNN reported on the 20th an unofficial opinion from Israeli Justice Minister Tzipi Livni: ""it is clear for us here in Israel" that chemical weapons have been used in Syria, and an international response to the crisis should be "on the table in the discussions between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Obama" during the president's trip to Israel." She wouldn't say who did it, but the Israeli concern was the same as usual - that Hezbollah might somehow get the weapons and use them against Israel. Considering the very Sunni Jabhat Al-Nusra, aka Al-Qaeda in Syria, is the most likely force to wrest control of said weapons, it's not clear why their hated Shia rivals in Hezbollah would suddenly have access then. And why Al Qaeda seizing the CW is in itself not a concern for Israel (at least worth mentioning) is also unexplained but worth pondering. Against whoever, CNN further reported ''Livni says Israel is prepared to take action: "Yes, but I am not going to speak about it publicly. Israel has the right of course to defend itself.""

Other Western Nations
UK: Foreign Office spokesman: "The use of chemical weapons would be abhorrent and universally condemned. The UK is clear that the use or proliferation of chemical weapons would demand a serious response from the international community and force us to revisit our approach so far." Presumably, this would apply to either side.

UN Investigation
Will have its own section.

SANA Reports

 * 25 Killed by Rocket with Chemical Materials Fired by Terrorists in Aleppo Countryside Mar 19, 2013
 * Terrorists on Tuesday launched a rocket containing chemical materials on Khan al-Asal area in Aleppo Countryside. The explosion of the rocket claimed the lives of 25 martyrs, while 110 citizens were injured, many of them in critical condition.

"... they launched a missile at 7,30 in the morning from Kfar Dael region into Khan al-Asal area in Aleppo governorate. "The missile fell in a region populated by civilians on a 300- m distance from the post of the Syrian Arab army soldiers," the Ministry said in the letters. It added that after the missile was exploded, a dense smoke has occurred which led to direct faint cases among citizens who were subjected to inhale those gases. ''


 * "In two previous identical letters sent to President of the UN Security Council and the UN Secretary General on December 8th, 2012 issued by document 917/2012 S 628/ 67, Syria expressed its serious fear of offering chemical weapons to the terrorists by some countries which support them to accuse the Syrian government of using such weapons," the Ministry said.
 * "Video tapes broadcast at that time on websites have showed the way of manufacturing the poisonous gases through chemical materials received by al-Qaeda from a Turkish company as they were tested on creatures," the Ministry said.'' (see Tekkim Chemical Test Video)


 * Al-Zoubi: Terrorists' Firing of Rocket with Chemical Substances in Aleppo is Serious Escalation
 * He stressed that the governments of Erdogan and Qatar bear legal, moral and political responsibility for the crime which claimed the lives of 25 persons and wounded over 100, the majority of them are in critical condition.


 * Al-Zoubi said that the crime is a first impact of the Arab League's decision on the Ministerial Level. "Whoever got involved and announced direct and public military support to the terrorists, whether he was an emir, a minister or a prime minister, must be held to account for the crime," he stressed.


 * The armed forces restored security and stability to parts of Khan al-Asal area last November.


 * Mikdad: Crime in Khan al-Asal Adds to Record of Terrorist Groups Supported by Arab Gulf Countries, West and Turkey
 * Deputy Foreign an Expatriates Minister Dr. Fayssal Mikdad affirmed that the crime committed against civilians by the armed terrorist groups who launched a missile which produced gases in the area adds up to these groups which are supported by some countries in the Arab Gulf, the West and particularly Turkey which is responsible for the crimes committed against civilians and the destruction taking place in Syria.


 * Russia: Use of Chemical Weapons by "Syrian Opposition" Is Very Serious Precedent
 * The Russian Foreign Ministry on Tuesday said the use of chemical weapons by "the Syrian opposition" is "a very serious precedent".


 * "This incident constitutes a very worrying and serious development in the context of the crisis in Syria," the Ministry said in a statement published on its website.


 * The statement expressed Russia's deep concern "over weapons of mass destruction falling into the hands of gunmen, which further aggravates the situation and pushes the confrontation in the country to a new level."


 * The Russian Foreign Ministry called upon all rational parties in Syria to abandon violence and move to realistic steps towards achieving the political solution through negotiations based on the Geneva Statement adopted by the action group on Syria on June 30.

SOHR
From the Facebook page, chronological order. CW never mentioned, but the death toll is the same, specifying soldiers. Then the toll shrinks, all become civilian, still no talk of choking, etc. ??? --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:09, 20 March 2013 (UTC)
 * Aleppo province: Medical sources have confirmed the death of 26 people by a rocket falling on the town of Khan al-Asal, 16 of the dead were regular soldiers, 10 were civilians.
 * Aleppo province: It was heard through the wireless communication devices that 26 people (10 civilians, 16 regular soldiers) were killed when a rocket fell on the town of Khan al-Asal, reef Aleppo. There were also reports of injuries.
 * Aleppo province: Violent clashes are taking place by the Mengh military airport, reports of losses on both sides. 2 rebels killed by the clashes in Aleppo city. The town of Khan al-Asal was bombarded.
 * Final death toll for Tuesday 19/03/2013: In Aleppo 22 civilians and 6 rebel fighters were killed. ... 12 civilians were killed by a rocket on the Khan al-A'sal town in Reef Aleppo.

Other sources
(temp, to be incorporated and scored out or deleted) --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:37, 21 March 2013 (UTC)


 * CNN, March 22: moved, top


 * AP: Syria regime, rebels want probe of chemical attack


 * Jerusalem Post: Israel: No conclusion yet on Syrian chemical use

Christopher Harmer, a senior naval analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, and the former deputy director of future operations at the U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet:
 * Chemical weapons likely used in Syria, but detection window closed, expert says By Joshua Rhett Miller, Fox News, March 20, 2013
 * [Harmer] said Wednesday that it was “overwhelmingly likely” that a choking agent such as chlorine or phosgene was used by either Syrian rebels or the Bashar Assad regime, contradicting statements by the U.S. ambassador to Syria who said the Obama administration has no evidence to support Assad’s claims that U.S.-backed rebels used the weapons recently in northern Syria.


 * “When you take the totality of the evidence, it seems obvious to me, or overwhelmingly likely, that a chemical weapon attack did take place,” Harmer said. “You had near simultaneous claims by both sides, independent reporting on the ground and a lot of patients at the hospital with the same symptoms. Other experts contacted by FoxNews.com expressed doubt that chemical weapons were used. Harmer ... said there’s a “good possibility” the usage was inadvertent or intentionally very limited to gauge international reaction.''


 * The most likely deployment of the weapons, according to Harmer, was a crude, unguided rocket attack, which coincides with reporting from the Syrian state-run SANA news agency. Choking agents like chlorine and phosgene could also be packed into a truck to be exploded, much like an improvised explosive device, Harmer said.


 * Reuters: Alleged chemical attack kills 25 in northern Syria
 * No Western governments or international organizations confirmed a chemical attack in Syria, but Russia, an ally of Damascus, accused rebels of carrying out such a strike.


 * The United States said it had no evidence to substantiate charges that the rebels had used chemical weapons.


 * U.N. spokesman Martin Nesirky said it was not in a position to confirm the reports, adding that if either side used such weapons it would be a "grave violation of international law".


 * Britain said its calculations would change if a chemical attack had taken place. A Foreign Office spokeswoman said it would "demand a serious response from the international community and force us to revisit our approach so far".


 * A Reuters photographer said victims he had visited in Aleppo hospitals were suffering breathing problems and that people had said they could smell chlorine after the attack. "I saw mostly women and children," said the photographer, who cannot be named for his own safety. He quoted victims at the University of Aleppo hospital and the al-Rajaa hospital as saying people were dying in the streets and in their houses.


 * Information Minister Omran al-Zoabi said rebels fired "a rocket containing poison gases" at the town of Khan al-Assal, southwest of Aleppo, from the city's southeastern district of Nairab, part of which is rebel-held. "The substance in the rocket causes unconsciousness, then convulsions, then death," the minister said.


 * But a senior rebel commander, Qassim Saadeddine, who is also a spokesman for the Higher Military Council in Aleppo, denied this, blaming Assad's forces for the alleged chemical strike. "We were hearing reports from early this morning about a regime attack on Khan al-Assal, and we believe they fired a Scud with chemical agents," he told Reuters by telephone from Aleppo.


 * AP via USA Today: U.S.: No evidence of chemical weapons use in Syria
 * The Obama administration has no evidence to back up a claim by Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime that the U.S.-backed Syrian rebels used chemical weapons, the White House said Tuesday.


 * A U.S. official told the AP there was no evidence either side had used such weapons Tuesday in an attack in northern Syria, disputing a competing claim by rebels that it was regime forces who fired the chemical weapon.


 * The origin of the attack is still unclear, the official added. But the official noted that the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons also is reporting no independent information of chemical weapons use. The official wasn't authorized to speak publicly on the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity to the AP.


 * New York Times: Syria and Activists Trade Charges on Chemical Weapons
 * Another rebel commander, Abdul Jabbar al Okaidi, head of the rebel military council in Aleppo, said in a telephone interview that he had witnessed the attack, describing it as an errant strike on a government-controlled neighborhood, by Syrian warplanes flying at high altitude. He said the explosions from the attack emitted what he described as a gas that appeared to cause suffocation, and that some victims had been treated in a rebel field hospital.


 * The commander ridiculed government assertions that the rebels had chemical weapons. “We don’t even have ammunition for our Kalashnikovs,” he said.


 * Same weapon the regime used against the University? Scud-type missiles fired from a fighter jet that's silent and invisible on video, but visible and audible to properly trained opposition people. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:58, 19 March 2013 (UTC)


 * ABC News: Drumbeat Grows Louder in Congress for Obama to Act on Syria Dy Dana Hughes, ABC News, Mar 19, 2013 8:55pm
 * ''Republican Senators Lindsey Graham and John McCain released a statement today, calling for President Obama to act against Syrian President Bashir [sic] al-Assad. ... “President Obama has said that the use of weapons of mass destruction by Bashar Assad is a ‘red line’ for him that ‘will have consequences,’” the statement reads. “If today’s reports are substantiated, the President’s red line has been crossed, and we would urge him to take immediate action to impose the consequences he has promised.”

The senators are calling for the United States to provide arms to vetted rebel fighters, to launch targeted strikes against Assad’s aircraft and SCUD missile batteries on the ground, and to establish safe zones inside Syria to protect civilians living in opposition controlled areas. ... “I don’t care what it takes,” Graham said. “If the choice is to send in troops to secure the weapons sites versus allowing chemical weapons to get in the hands of some of the most violent people in the world, I vote to cut this off before it becomes a problem.”''


 * State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said the U.S. was looking into claims that the Assad regime had used a chemical weapon in a recent attack in the opposition stronghold of Aleppo. She would not confirm whether the administration believes Syria’s chemical stockpile is secure, citing intelligence reasons, but said there continues to be an increasing concern that Assad will cross that line.
 * “We’ve been very clear about our concerns that the Assad regime is increasingly beleaguered, that it finds that the violence that it is using by conventional means is inadequate, including its barbaric use of Scuds. And so we are quite concerned that they will resort to other weapons,” she said. “We’ve made clear that this would constitute a red line for the United States. The president could not have been clearer about it.”
 * But Graham and McCain argue that Assad has likely already crossed the line and they want to see action taken.