Talk:Alleged attack on school in Hass, October 26, 2016

Shadows/Time of day

 * This video. Starts running when shadow-to height is about 1.17:1. Arrives around (0:50 into video) at shadow-to height is about 1.37:1. when we see children (around 3:45 video time stamp), shadow-to height is about 0.89:1 (short shadows). ( Actually, shadows shorter than height are not supposed to happen there at all, calc gives 1:13 to 1 as the shortest, at about 12:00 pm (UTC + 3, local time, as of 26 October; Summer savings time ended on 27 Oct) (Not done very carefully, from screen) --Resup (talk) 14:43, 28 October 2016 (UTC)

Merged pages
We have two pages on the same topic, see also here. Maloof interview (+MOD) provides a reasonable rebuke. -- Resup
 * I have now merged Attack on School in Haas, Idlib here. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 15:04, 28 October 2016 (UTC)
 * Funny, and thanks for the moving. I think you hadn't started this when I decided to, but it took a while to gather stuff and I didn't check back. :) --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:24, 28 October 2016 (UTC)

Other School Attacks
By US-Coalition, just before:RU MOD Rutskoi: At 03.35 on October 24 US Air Force tactical aircraft performed missile-and-bomb strikes on the school building in the village of Tel Kaif 14 kilometers north of Mosul. There are wounded and killed. --Resup (talk) 16:14, 28 October 2016 (UTC)

By Terrorists in Aleppo, next day:http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/219459
 * Children were reportedly caught in the crossfire again Thursday, with state media saying at least six were killed and 15 wounded in rebel rocket attacks on the government-held west of Aleppo city.


 * The rocket fire hit two west Aleppo neighborhoods, with one of the attacks striking a school, said the official SANA news agency. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:28, 28 October 2016 (UTC)

Deadlier, 2 years ago: Claims that this was the deadliest school bombing in the conflict fly in the face of the ignored record, as Eva Bartlett points out here at the Duran - Akrama School Bombing in Homs, in early October, 2014, witnessed a double terrorist car bombing that killed a reported 48 students, plus teachers, guards, etc. Same basic child death toll as the Houla Massacre, barely condemned or mentioned, now forgotten by most. Other cases also cited. --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:44, 30 October 2016 (UTC)

Scene Analysis
Northeast view: (forthcoming)

Note: left-hand blast was earlier, smoke column dissipating when right-hand blast (further west) happens.

Southwest View: The first scene in this video is filmed from SW of Haas, in neighboring Basqala (WM). (likely from this building) All foreground details line up nicely. Camera to road bend where sand meets trees to two buildings also points about exactly to the middle of the school district. This blast is a bit west of that line, either on the west side of or near that area. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:28, 28 October 2016 (UTC)


 * graphic: Google Earth view vs. video still - objects and lines between them correlated - white triangle is around the falling (bomb?) - blast area will be almost right below that, however far back



Note: Smoke from the other blast a bit east is dissipating, so this shows the second, more westerly blast. That lines up with the order in the other view (as does angle of sunlight in both cases, at least approximately) This big blast seems to involve lots of concrete dust, so some serious structural damage. I suspect the first blast was the strike at the school we've seen from different angles, with only moderate damage, and this is where that house was flattened and they have the dubious rescue video.

About ODAB 500
This video seems to show a ODAB-500 bomb being used. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 21:16, 28 October 2016 (UTC)

Could be, or a Western munition version of (unsure), couple of videos here (parachute) and claimed to be here. Those may be coalition's ODAB's (say bought by Saudi from Ukraine or whatever)--Resup (talk) 13:46, 29 October 2016 (UTC)

Southwest View
...continuing from above:

Another interesting thing about this scene is the lack of a clear jet sound (or is it that roar I took for wind?) and how you can see the glowing projectile as it falls, for several frames before impact. (analysis coming) It seems it was expected, and they say Allahu Akbar. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:28, 28 October 2016 (UTC)

Projectile notes: I'm not sure if it's "glowing," but apparently reflecting sunlight, being shiny metal I guess - it doesn't come straight down but at a slight angle. 3-d projection isn't clear, but it seems to slant a bit left to right as it descends. That should be direction of travel, from the west-northwest. The angle is relatively steep, so nearby if surface-fired, or high up if dropped from a jet. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:13, 29 October 2016 (UTC)

The fact we can see it for several frames suggests to me (no expert) it's falling relatively slow. Not sure if this can be (would a mortar-rocket hit the same terminal velocity as a drop from x,000 meters, or can altitude matter? COuld this fit better with a low-flying jet over higher, or with a surface fired projectile just falling from the top of its arc? --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:13, 29 October 2016 (UTC)
 * Without parachute, terminal velocity will be in the ballpark of 100 m/s, and it does seem to make of that order on video. Bomb with parachute, maybe 20 to 50 m/s. Knowing sizes of structures, an estimate may be tried. Depends on construction but quickly no longer depends on altitude. --Resup (talk) 14:04, 29 October 2016 (UTC)
 * Thanks, I had forgotten the parachute part/haven't caught up. It didn't seem that slow at all, and you agree? If it's visibly slow, and it's a clue, that could be why they decided to claim parachute. Not at all sure yet, just popping back in (busy weekend). --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:51, 30 October 2016 (UTC)

Explaining the Damage
I'm skeptical of the MoD claim the drome footage shows it can't be an airstrike. I'd say it really depends what the jet was allegedly firing/dropping. There's some serious damage, lateral, that we see, and very little seen from above, no big crater. What would explain it is whatever can explain that, and whether it could be air or surface fired, or if either can be excluded. And then again, air does not equal Syria-Russia over rebel-held turf near Turkey anyway.

Presuming all damage here is from one blast, and seeing the big fireball on video, I'd suspect FAE - doesn't blow up the ground it hits, but the air around it, mainly. --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:58, 30 October 2016 (UTC)

Planted bodies?
I think the victims on the video are staged. Maybe executed somewhere else and dumped in the orchard. One man had his brains blown out. Most likely by a heavy machine gun. The bombs were thermobaric ODAB-500. They do not blow people's brains out. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 21:01, 29 October 2016 (UTC)
 * Indeed, to the extent that might be his blood, what odd some shrapnel hit just his head out on this filed. I'd suspect execution. But as miladvisor points out, his head seems totally intact when the hat falls away - the blood might be fake, or someone else's. --Caustic Logic (talk) 03:06, 30 October 2016 (UTC)

The other victim was an old woman dressed in what looks like winter clothing. Is is really that cold? The men wear T-shirts. We saw similar clothing before. In the Ghouta false-flag attack the victims supposedly died in their beds in the middle of the night at 3 am. The women were dressed the same way. Adam asked who would dress like that? He said they must be hostages who keep on to all their belongings all the time. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 21:01, 29 October 2016 (UTC)
 * Good question, but less so than in August - if she were dressed for the night before, maybe, or possibly that morning - clothing aside, she could be a prior execution victim. --Caustic Logic (talk) 03:06, 30 October 2016 (UTC)

The old man they carry out - no sign of blood where his leg was injured (implicitly), not covered in dust except on his butt. It's possible they just brought him to the rubble place and set him down so they could pick him up again. --Caustic Logic (talk) 03:06, 30 October 2016 (UTC)

the severed arm (graphic) seems staged, at least in being attached to a school-ish bag. Appears likely it's from somewhere else maybe a day or so ago - no blood here, all dry, possible early decay color. --Caustic Logic (talk) 03:06, 30 October 2016 (UTC)