Talk:Crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17/BUK Tracking

Kiev's Holdings
As part of their July 21 presentation of evidence, the Russian Ministry of Defense published satellite images allegedly showing Ukrainian BUK positions around Donetzk (RT report). It's no secret the Ukrainian military maintains a base with anti-aircraft units. The facility shown in the Russian presentation (best seen here) I located - it's south of Avdeyevka, 3 km north of the airport, about 5 km north of Donetsk like they say. Visual match first, then noticed the label could have found it for me ... on Wikimapia. Labels, translated: Anti-aircraft missile battalion (in / h A-1428) One of the three anti-aircraft missile battalions ("Buk-M1"), located in Avdeyevka, Mariupol and Lugansk." BUK-type launcher photos included. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:08, 29 July 2014 (UTC)

The counter-arguments to this at least sometimes fail. Interpreter rag decided "the presence of Ukrainian government air defense systems is something of a red herring, not least given the clear evidence that the separatists had deployed at least one Buk system in the area. The side with a motive and clear, moving and likely operating units of the things on that day (see below) is irrelevant and shouldn't be considered because there's apparently also proof the presumed bad guys also had the units they needed to be so presumed. The very fact that separatists aren't ruled out means the other side should be free of any danger of being ruled in, and the separatists should ruled in just as automatically as they were before'' this social-media verification came in. This is clearly an irresponsible suggestion. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:50, 31 July 2014 (UTC) and --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:20, 2 August 2014 (UTC)

Kiev's Buks Shuffled?

 * From Russia's military press conference: RT, 10 Questions - in more detail
 * 3. Why was a large group of air defense systems deployed to the militia-held area if the self-defense forces have no planes?
 * “As far as we know, the Ukrainian military had three or four air defense battalions equipped with Buk-M1 SAM systems deployed in the vicinity of Donetsk on the day of the crash. This system is capable of hitting targets within the range of 35 km at the altitude of up to 22 km.”''
 * 4. Why did Kiev deploy BUK missile systems on the edge of militia-controlled zones directly before the tragedy?
 * “We have satellite photos of the places where Ukraine had its air defense units deployed in the southeastern parts of the country. The first three photos were made on July 14. The first photo shows Buk launchers 8 km northwest of Lugansk. You can clearly see a TELAR and two TELs. The second photo shows radars 5 km north of Donetsk. You can see two TARs along with other equipment and technical structures. The third photo shows air defense systems north of Donetsk. You can clearly see a TELAR launcher and about 60 military and auxiliary vehicles, tents for vehicles and other structures.


 * “Here’s a photo of the same area made on July 17. Please note that the launcher has disappeared. The fifth photo shows a battery of Buk missiles at the village of Zaroshchenskoye 50 km east of Donetsk and 8 km south of Shakhtyorsk on the morning of the same day. The sixth photo shows the same area on July 18. As you can see, the battery has left.”

Note: the latter photo has substantial cloud cover, but unless they happened to hid the launchers in those areas (or Russia's satellites waited until the area was covered) it appears the noted vehicles have left to go do something - on/by the 17th, where they say launchers appear and then disappear in a town closer to the crash on the 17th. Zaroshchenskoye on Yandex maps - 13 miles SSW of the crash sitel, 9 miles W-SW of Torez..--Caustic Logic (talk) 23:08, 29 July 2014 (UTC)

On July 30, Vitalyi Naida, head of Ukrainian Security Service SBU’s counter-intelligence, came up with a series of slides (short article, announcement on SBU website with link to youtube-video showing the slides (presumably Ukrainian language)) allegedly showing that the Russian material was "faked". He points to a patch of trees, claiming they had been cut down shortly before the 17th, while Russia's images show the trees intact. On August 1, the Russian Ministry of Defense published a rebuttal advising that
 * Instead of presenting hastily doctored evidence to the international community, the SBU could do with better control over all the mercenary units in the areas around Donetsk and Lugansk organized by Kolomoisky, Lyashko, Yarosh and others, who shell Ukrainian territory without any control from those in charge of the anti-terrorist operation.

The trees probably are cut down by now, but we'll have to wait for the true details of just when they were and when the image showing that was taken, or if the image shown is even of any one day and not a composite - "doctored" as Russia says. Other clues suggest launchers moving out of this area at that time: The - ostensibly from the morning of the 17th - shows the infamous launcher-loaded truck seen in Lugansk, or one just like it, being carried on a truck belonging to a company just south of the missile base in northern Donetsk. That was seen carrying the launcher east out of town at 11:15 AM, purportedly on July 17 (and with the location completely fudged to say Snizhne, when it was only headed there).--Caustic Logic (talk) 10:20, 2 August 2014 (UTC)

Separatist Holdings
While much certainty has been shown it was a separatist BUK system responsible, everyone seems to acknowledge that ordinarily, they didn't have any, that were known of. Fresh sighting of them in the field, supposed admissions, and existing presumptions remain the strongest evidence. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:43, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

The Open Newsroom team have latched onto a June 29 message from a Twitter account associated with the Donetsk People’s Republic, @DNRpress claiming separatist forces had conquered a base with anti-air BUK missiles. This is apparently the A-1402 base, as an Itar-Tass report specified. That report noted ... It seems to just cite the tweet which, it was found, used a dated photo online since mid-2013. In essence, there's no good evidence they ever did seize this place. But it was referred to by some as "Deleted DNR tweet confirming Russian rebels indeed have a BUK-M1." The crew at large seems a bit vague on the status of this base:
 * June 29 Seizure?
 *  It appears that the A-1402 military unit was moved into the Donetsk region in 2007 from Odessa, and reports note that the unit was based near Donetsk airport. Local reports from June 29 cited ATO spokesman Alexei Dmitrashkivsky as stating that separatists had attacked the military unit.

As we just found with geo-location, it's 3 km north of Donetsk airport, and it's the same place Russia believes is firmly government-held. It's the place they say at least one BUK-type launcher was removed from on July 17 for some reason, by Kiev's forces who run it. If this basic Wikipedia article on the battle for the airport is correct and/or in line with our page on it, the airport and anything military-related north of it would probably be government-held continuously to the present time. It's possible some launchers could have been lost during a brief seizure of the base, but this too seems doubtful. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:24, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

(more details forthcoming)

Imagery Mapping
There have been quite a number now of photos and videos showing BUK launchers ostensibly in separatist strongholds, on July 17. The geo-location of these in such towns by social media networks has been the subject of some recent media commentary. These purported placements are worth collecting and considering here. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:20, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

One somewhat comprehensive and updated/evolving page: How Social Sleuthing Uncovered Evidence of Surface-to-Air Missile Systems in Eastern Ukraine Inset is a small preview of the interactive map they made of all placed images (as it stands at the end of July - full-size presentation with links, on Google Maps) Note that one of them is way up in Lugansk - which one is a little unclear at the moment - the site may be wrong) --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:45, 31 July 2014 (UTC)


 * List of Scenes, placed or not
 * Billboard Video: released by Interior Ministry, filmed in Krasnodon before dawn, the Interior Minister says. Russian military analysis places it in  Krasnoarmeysk, and the Open Newsroom crew contradicts both and decided "collaborative geo-location was able to place the footage in southwestern Luhansk.''
 * Surveillance Video: located to Snizhne by Aliot Higgins, date unclear.
 * Pre-located video: geo-located by the uploader here in Zuhres. Higgins confirms, 100% sure, and others concur. Driving east.
 * Snizhne square photo - located by an associate of Higgins
 * Another photo placed (f/c)
 * Paris Match photo - allegedly Snizhne, reportedly placed in northern Donetsk city. See below.

Billboard Video
(to be condensed) A video released by the Ukrainian Interior Ministry is highly dubious and worth some analysis. It shows what seems to be a BUK launcher loaded on a truck driving some direction in some town at what seems to be early twilight (or pre-dawn, depending). The original posting (with almost 2 million views already) gives no details: "Militants take out missile system "Buk" to the border with Russiam" the title translates. "No description available," it says below, and no comments allowed. From what I've seen no one knows where this is filmed. Daily Mail says it's a "separatist stronghold," unnamed, and headed south, back towards Russia. "Ukrainian spies reportedly filmed the launcher used in the attack being smuggled to Russia - with two missiles missing." Eliot Higgins was cited by the Guardian with his new team of fundraistigators as geolocating some video and photo but not, apparently, this one. As explained at the kickstarter link they give, Higgins writes:
 * In the above video, posted by the Ukranian Ministry for Interior claiming to show the Buk missile launcher being driven towards Russia it was possible to match the transporter in the video to the transporter in Torez, details of which... (you have to subsidize their operation to see)

Avakov's Placement: Krasnodon or Lugansk
Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said in a Facebook post of July 18 Google-translated:
 * Covert surveillance units of MIA of Ukraine today July 18 at 4.50 am was recorded caterpillar tractor loaded with missile complex, moving in the direction through Krasnodon, toward the border with the Russian Federation. The video can be seen uncovered missiles. Two missiles in place - the average is not visible. 
 * There is an analysis of this and other information gathered. Presumably this is the missile system "Buk" that made a last shot at a civilian plane from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur .. 
 * Criminals try to hide the traces of this heinous crime. Not succeed. Security Service and Interior Ministry of Ukraine has collected and collects more irrefutable facts and evidence, the author points out the tragedy of the terrorist organization DNI / LC and its Russian backers Putin.
 * The investigation of events MIA issue a comprehensive report on the information. This fragment consider it necessary to publish immediately.

By the 22nd, "online sleuths" had placed it in Lugansk (see below). Avakov then confirmed this - he was wrong the first time. One article makes it sound like he wasn't just echoing the sleuths:
 * On July 22, Ukraine's Minister of Internal Affairs, Arsen Avakov, gave the exact coordinates of the video’s location: separatist-held Luhansk, about a 45-minute drive from Krasnodon. Locals quickly verified this claim by photographing the scene, which perfectly matches the landmarks seen in the video. (article by one of the sleuths)

Krasnoarmeysk
One source venturing a guess is the Russian government and RT witrh their 10 intriguing questions:
 * “For example, media circulated a video supposedly showing a Buk system being moved from Ukraine to Russia. This is clearly a fabrication. This video was made in the town of Krasnoarmeisk, as evidenced by the billboard you see in the background, advertising a car dealership at 34 Dnepropetrovsk Street. Krasnoarmeysk has been controlled by the Ukrainian military since May 11.”

There is a sign, but I cannot make it out just yet, if ever. Can they really? Even if that's so, surrounding towns might be good places for a dealership in Krasnoarmeysk to advertise. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:07, 29 July 2014 (UTC)

At right now is a still from a video claiming to show this, I still don't see it. They seem to think the gray span says that, perhaps from seeing a clearer view of this ubiquitous sign elsewhere. Opps. There's no reason to say a dealership in one town can only have billboards in that town. This alone fails. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:05, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

on Google Maps as Krasnoarmiis'k - not to be confused with the Krasnoarmeisk not far away in Russia. Distance: about 100 km almost due west of the crash site. Panorama, possiblt location, directions/implications forthcoming. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:07, 29 July 2014 (UTC)


 * Dnepropetrovsk Street is the main street of Krasnoarmeisk, leading northwest to Dnepropetrovsk. It tried matching this to the street corner where the car dealership is located. Yandex Maps did not provide a street view. It could be there, but too few details to make a positive match. Whatever this is, it is not evidence for anything. The least the SBU could have done is provide the location and some corroborating photographs.
 * The same applies to all so called "evidence" provided by Ukraine and the US State Department. As far as I can tell it is only cut-and-paste of unrelated footage to illustrate the claims made. A perfect example of this illusion is the "satellite photos" of Russian artillery shelling Ukraine released on Sunday morning. A photo of Russian GRADs on some unidentifiable field was placed next to a satellite image with an arrow pointing "Here Be Monsters!" Purely illustrative and no proof. There is a difference between legerdemain Hocus Pocus and outright forgery. The Russian video presentation displayed screen capture recording from the ATC radar, usually stored for two weeks. For this to be a hoax, Russia would need to create a forged tape of the radar data. Highly unlikely, as the the claim of authenticity had support of the full authority and prestige of the Russian Armed Forces. If the US presentation turns out to be hoax, State Department will claim the photos were never meant to be evidence. Some internee was told to prepare a presentation using stock images for some facts they knew to be true – trust us! -- Petri Krohn (talk) 14:45, 29 July 2014 (UTC)
 * You must have missed this, Petri! ;oP --CE (talk) 18:08, 29 July 2014 (UTC)
 * That is an awesomely perfect picture for this sorry episode so far. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:36, 31 July 2014 (UTC)


 * It would be neat though if we could show where this is and thus which way its's headed. The Kiev authorities, I think, know what happened. They say it was this exact launcher missing two missiles. It could be. Where is it at filming time and where headed? If it's true this same one was in Torez (dubious but possible) we'd have a direction traveled until that point also, and a rough time, 8:30 or so. The Guardian again citing Storyful's open-source investigation:
 * “There are now four pieces of content – three pieces of video and one image – which, in the case of three, conclusively show a Buk [surface-to-air] missile within rebel-held territory and in the case of the fourth, almost definitely in their territory,” says Storyful executive editor David Clinch. “Of those four pieces, individual groups or companies probably verified in or around the same time one or another of them.”
 * Open Newsroom verified three pieces of content and is investigating the fourth, thanks to its 900-strong network of journalists and experts. ''
 * The fourth is this video. Wouldn't it be a coup if we were the first to place it? Force that intern excuse and then laugh at it. That said, it's not the most likely to place but you, Petri, especially, might be able to. I think I might. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:51, 29 July 2014 (UTC)


 * James Miller Google + July 21 "Was a Buk sighted in Krasnoarmeysk or Krasnodon (continued analysis)? We've taken a new look at this video which has been debated since it was posted days ago. We're fairly confident, though not 100% confident, in this geoanalysis, but we're making significant progress. Any more information would be extremely helpful. " Cited: Russia This Week: Defense Ministry Claim on Buk in Billboard Video Doesn’t Add Up
 * ''...As we reported on our Ukraine Liveblog, the Buk was spotted before the shoot-down of the Malaysian airplane and ultimately geolocated to the town of Torez, near the location of the crash in Grabovo. Then the video, taken early the next morning on 18 July, showed a scene in Krasnodon,...

--Caustic Logic (talk) 13:09, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

Google Earth has one photo [http://www.panoramio.com/photo/55329278 from ул. Днепропетровская.] The street has about the same width. The streetlights are not quite the same. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 14:55, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

Placed in Lugansk!
Storyful's rundown states of this video:
 * The footage is not the original, however we believe that the first instance of this footage was removed by the uploader and the version below is the earliest we can find. Ukrainian Interior Minister, Arsen Avakov, made early claims that the video was filmed in the Ukrainian town of Krasnodon near the Russian border, however collaborative geo-location was able to place the footage in southwestern Luhansk.

It links to "Bellingcat," which you have to pay to see much of. James Miller passes on that it's "Mystery SOLVED: Video released by Ukraine's Interior Ministry does in fact show a Buk, possibly missing several missiles, in Lugansk headed east from the MH17 crash site and in the direction of Russia.﻿" The spot they think matches the video (better panorama coming) is here on Google Maps. Was that a highway? Where's the cross-street? I see elsewhere they have a high view showing the same basic billboard there, but that's going to be true of several spots in this area. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:09, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

My impression of the scene - based on the panoramic view below - is far from matching with this. That does not look like a highway, and it just seems like a small town. However, I finally saw some of the supporting images (see here and here - source of the inset image.) It seems a likely match after all. I won't say I confirm it with any certainty, but I don't think I'll be challenging it like I was preparing to do. Note the different billboard in the right spot, and the matching one over there. There are other images, apparently more current, showing that that they moved the one sign over to the right spot They don't point to the pinkish roofed building beyond the red-roofed one, but that adds to the match (compare to below). Whenever this video was made and whatever it really means, it seems quite likely it was at this spot in Lugansk shortly before dawn. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:52, 1 August 2014 (UTC)

ACLOS Review
(for what it's worth, our panorama and starting notes) It seems to be filmed near the edge of town, or edge of a hill anyway, with a clear view ahead, two vague homes/buildings seen down the slope. Otherwise, very non-descript. The angle of intersection will be one of the better clues - it looks to me not 90 degrees ( |- ), but with the road the truck is on either slanting or curving somewhat towards the camera ( /- ). One important observation: there's no logical reason he should have been just happening to film this area unless he knew something interesting would drive by at just this odd time. That's clarified by how he zooms in just before it enters frame - he was waiting for that truck. How did he know about it? Informants on the other side of town phoning ahead makes enough sense, I suppose. Another issue: If this is dusk (sunset 8:20 PM local), isn't this facing roughly northwest? If so, this vehicle is driving roughly north, not south. And we might start looking on the west edge of town. There's a highway out to the northwest, back towards Kiev. This street is too narrow and unmarked to be the highway, obviously, but it might be driving that way, for example. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:41, 29 July 2014 (UTC)
 * Or, alternately, he's facing towards the sun about to rise, early on the 18th, as alleged by the Interior Ministry - see below) --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:20, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

Paris Match Photo



 * Originally published by Paris Match on July 25, with the claim the picture was taken by their own reporting team near Snizhne at mid-day on the 17th. Note the prominent, apparent, telephone number dominating the picture. The truck and launcher, as far as can be seen, are quite similar to or the same as the one seen in the billboard video anyways. How many of its missiles the unit has at this moment is unclear.


 * Human Rights Investigations: "it turns out to have been taken in Donetsk, 75km away" (citing someone else's geo-location - site link given.
 * ''We know this because the phone number on the truck panel (050 471 4180) leads straight to this hire place (photo):
 * According to Paris-Match, the proprietor of this establishment claimed “rebels” had stolen a number of his vehicles earlier in the month. If we go from here to towards Snizhne we find the location of the Paris-Match photo, near a car dealership on Makiivske Highway on the outskirts of Donetsk:
 * After informing Paris-Match of the mistake regarding the video location, the author of the article Alfred De Montesquiou has now got back and explained:
 * Hello, indeed, it appears there was a mixup in caption : the picture was taken leaving Donetsk on road to Snijne, not in actual Snijne

Questions: Was it a caption mix-up, or did their team really not know where it was taken, and just believed the real source when he said Snizneh? Who is the true photographer who knew to catch this picture near the company's base, apparently at the outset of a rather epic journey? Why did the rebels leave the prominent phone number on the stolen truck used for such an important task? It wound up leading to man who pointed right to the tieves, and prove yet again separatists, not Kiev allies, were the ones driving BUKs around. Was that so hard to foresee? --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:36, 1 August 2014 (UTC)

To Do: Verify the geo-location - set a time, presuming July 17, by sunlight and that location - establish which was it's traveling relative to the government-run anti-aircraft base just a few km north of here and relative to the other places and times this truck and others were spotted rolling around prominently and getting filmed a lot by the right kind of people, in areas presumed to be impenetrable to any such frame-up operation - look into this company, etc. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:36, 1 August 2014 (UTC) Location: I can't confirm it with certainty, but it's extremely consistent. Two standard but distinct pole types that close together on the right with a pull-over lane ending at the blue one, and consistent-scale foliage behind. Proceding on the location as likely enough to warrant the work. The stretch of highway identified runs northeast, heading 33 degrees. The truck is most likely not driving at the moment, as it's in the pull-over lane. But it's pointed as if ready to leave Donetsk as soon as they finish doing something in theis spot. All we can see they're doing is getting filmed, and maybe that's just what they're waiting for. Ahead would be the an industrial area, the eastern suburb of Makiivka, then Khartsyzk, etc. and further east Torez and Snizhne (driving times unsure, date also unsure. Russia claims the one launcher left the northern base sometime between in August 14 and 17 images.

Time: I'm not sure how exactly to set this up, but the shadows appear to stretch almost right across the highway, with only a slight northern shift. The azimuth thus appears to be fairly close to to 140˚ (reached at 11:09 AM). As for solar altitude, trying to line up the launcher's corner with its shadow gives a reading of app. 56˚ (= 10:50 AM, with azimuth 133˚) or perhaps 59˚ (= 11:18, az 143.5). The graphic shows both readings. Which is better? I used NOAA solar calculator, with coordinates: lat 48.017102 long:37.9037626 time=GMT+2, DST +1 --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:15, 2 August 2014 (UTC)

Possible Launch Sites
A couple of locations have now been forwarded, based on compelling evidence, as likely SAM launch sites of July 17 or thereabouts. This is worth careful consideration here. To start:


 * On-the-ground Clues
 * UK Telegraph, July 22 This report with some detail and a photo visits a few areas where signs of possible BUK launcher movement and firing occurred recently. Caterpillar tracks, mostly light, signs of burning, various debris left behind, all or mostly "in the area of the town of Snizhnoye." These details might suggest whoever did this had multiple launchers set up in different areas that left as soon as the operation/accident was done.


 * Video-Based


 * Photo-Satellite-Based
 * Ukraine@War: Launch location detected of missile that brought down MH17 The photo at right, cited by Kiev as proof of a BUK launch in the right area, July 17. The anlysis here looks good on first blush and lines the filming to northern Torz, plume on a line including a supposed patch of cat tracks just revelaed by fresh Google/GeoEye images of some fields here by Snizhne. As traced, the tracks look realistic to me. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:55, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

CL, do you know where to find weather records for 17 July at this location? Photo shows cirrostratus cloud which has a base height of 6000 metres. Russian Defence Ministry states that Avdeyevka, to the west, had 70 to 80% cloud coverage and cloud base height of 2500m. But this photo is looking to the east of Torez Pmr9 (talk) 16:47, 1 August 2014 (UTC)
 * No, sorry. Was looking yesterday for Donetsk weather. Date and time.com goes back a few days too little to help in either. It's out there, somewhere. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:02, 1 August 2014 (UTC)