Talk:Alleged Chemical Attack, August 21, 2013

Skeptical Sources

 * Penny for Your Thoughts (truth exists; only lies are invented): "Chemical attack" conveniently staged and timed in Syria. Planned Staged Psy-op.--Caustic Logic (talk) 09:57, 22 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Hot Air.com: Syrian rebels claim Assad used chemical weapons, over 1000 dead - but skepticism is still allowed. Some reasonable starter questions here. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:34, 21 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Images of Death in Syria, but No Proof of Chemical Attack, NYT, August 21, 2013. This is a much more level-headed article than I would have expected from the NYT so credit where credit is due and I put it here under "skeptical sources". Also a good summary. Interesting detail:
 * At least one photograph posted on Facebook by an activist showed what looked like a makeshift rocket. But loyalist militias and Hezbollah have both fired makeshift rockets at rebel positions in this war, and could presumably be suspects for any attacks with improvised rockets on rebel-controlled neighborhoods.
 * --CE (talk) 13:54, 22 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Expert casts doubt on Syria chemical weapons footage – Euronews, 21 August, 2013 (video)
 * The evidence of chemical attack seems compelling – but remember - there’s a propaganda war on – Patrick Cockburn / The Independent, 21 August 2013
 * Syria: Chemical Attack in Ghouta 'an Accident Caused by Free Syrian Army' – GIANLUCA MEZZOFIORE / International Business Times, August 21, 2013
 * He added that the idea that the FSA is single and unified is "a myth," because "there are different factions and something like that could be a win/win for them: launch the attack and raise amount of profile of their cause by the UN."

"Rebels did it"
Obama seems to be accusing al Qaeda for the attack:
 * Syrian Activist on Ghouta Attack: "I Haven’t Seen Such Death in My Whole Life" – DemocracyNow!, August 23, 2013
 * P.S. – Why did the New York Times chose to publish this today? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 16:42, 23 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Syria’s Al-Ghouta Crime: The Real Story of Liwaa al-Islam Chemical Rockets – Islamic Invitation Turkey, 23 August 2013 (Evidently translated from Arabic, no source given.)
 * Why were the Europeans and Americans hesitant to take an action against Syria in the United Nations Security Council, in the alleged Syrian use of chemical weapons in Ghouta? Arab sources suggest that the US and Western missions had received the real story of chemical weapons. The story wasn’t officially distributed, but it is supported by Russian documents and satellite images of the battlefield, and Ghouta.
 * The images showed that the rockets were launched from Duma at 1:35 on Wednesday.

Facebook pages

 * مجزرة الكيماوي Chemical Massacre Syria – 4,205 likes
 * Chemical Massacre in Syria - Massacre Chimique en Syrie – 3,141 likes
 * AQ PRESS (Al Queda Press Office) – 280 likes (This is not really related, but I will save the link here, as liking it on Facebook may not be a good idea. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 21:04, 22 August 2013 (UTC))

Victims

 * Syria: Thousands suffering neurotoxic symptoms treated in hospitals supported by MSF – Médecins Sans Frontières, 24 August 2013
 * Three hospitals in Syria's Damascus governorate that are supported by the international medical humanitarian organisation Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) have reported to MSF that they received approximately 3,600 patients displaying neurotoxic symptoms in less than three hours on the morning of Wednesday, August 21, 2013. Of those patients, 355 reportedly died.
 * “Medical staff working in these facilities provided detailed information to MSF doctors regarding large numbers of patients arriving with symptoms including convulsions, excess saliva, pinpoint pupils, blurred vision and respiratory distress,” said Dr Bart Janssens, MSF director of operations.
 * Patients were treated using MSF-supplied atropine, a drug used to treat neurotoxic symptoms. MSF is now trying to replenish the facilities’ empty stocks and provide additional medical supplies and guidance.
 * “MSF can neither scientifically confirm the cause of these symptoms nor establish who is responsible for the attack,” said Dr Janssens. “However, the reported symptoms of the patients, in addition to the epidemiological pattern of the events—characterised by the massive influx of patients in a short period of time, the origin of the patients, and the contamination of medical and first aid workers—strongly indicate mass exposure to a neurotoxic agent. This would constitute a violation of international humanitarian law, which absolutely prohibits the use of chemical and biological weapons.”

If 355 died at the hospital, it is conceivable there are another 1000 dead at the attack sites. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 19:58, 24 August 2013 (UTC)

Alleged Forensics

 * Are These The Munitions Used In Today's Alleged Chemical Weapon Attack? – Brown Moses, 21 August 2013
 * Large numbers of victims have been reported, and the following pictures have been posted online claiming to show two of the munitions used in the attack. What's extremely interesting about these devices is they match with devices previously recorded in the conflict, reportedly launched by government forces, with it's first appearance in Daraya, south-west Damascus on January 4th.
 * That is a strange-looking device. Note he says "it seems likely these munitions have been manufactured inside Syria," which I guess both sides are capable of, and of course "local activists certainly seem to think they are related," and I would give them some credit for knowing the different parts of their psyop. But why such an odd part when it's been rebels building bizarre new weapons mainly? Why not use any of the stuff they've stolen that Syria technically still owns? Did Syria steal a multinational forces improv weapon and false-flag them with it? Specifics will help narrow down the possibilities. I plan to catch up a bit within the next few days. I also plan to pop in at this link for some comments. I've been well-received there. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:57, 22 August 2013 (UTC)

What is the chemical agent?
Médecins Sans Frontières claims that the cause of death is nerve agents. (See Victims above.) Others disagree.
 * If it isn’t Sarin, what is it? – Background paper by Dan Kaszeta, 23 August 2013]
 * The number of people affected indicates to me that whatever toxic substance was used, a large volume of material is needed. Whatever this was, there was a lot of it.
 * There is still no firm, conclusive evidence as to what the exact method of dissemination was responsible for dispersal of the mystery toxic substance. Was it rockets, missile warheads, artillery shells, mortar shells, a chemical tanker, aerial spray, aerial bomb, or some other means? Was it a mysterious wall of gas that drifted into the area?

The Jobar Medical Point doctor explains that people died because they sought sheller in cellars. (Was this because of simultaneous shelling?) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:35, 24 August 2013 (UTC)

Rebel CW Tunnels Found?

 * Rebel CW Factory Busted? (original heading)
 * Islamic Invitation Turkey: Syrian rebels’ Damascus chemical cache found by Syrian Army
 * The Syrian army has discovered a storehouse belonging to rebels in the Damascus area of Jobar, where toxic chemical substances – including chlorine – have been produced and kept, State TV reported. Military sources reported that the militants “were preparing to fire mortars in the suburbs of the capital and were going to pack missiles with chemical warheads.” A video shot by RT’s sister channel Russia Al Youm shows an old, partly ruined building which was set up as a laboratory. After entering the building, Syrian Army officers found scores of canisters and bags laid on the floor and tables. According to a warning sign on the bags, the “corrosive” substance was made in Saudi Arabia
 * Possibly relevant: wasn't Jobar almost the only suburb not reported as effected yesterday? Anyway, no proof this is "the" cache responsible for anything in particular, but a cache, suggesting intent, and intent some of them have allegedly been talking about, practicing for, and implementing lately. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:59, 23 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Jobar wasn't prominently mentioned in the later news, but the very early reddit thread interestingly enough linked (exclusively) to two distinct wikimapia places in Jobar, see what I wrote a bit below under "Videos" about the different locations. --CE (talk) 11:59, 24 August 2013 (UTC)
 * ANNA News has been in Jobar on the day starting at 7:20 AM, filming the army offensive. In their video report which was now translated into German they state about the CW campaign in the media that "in the first hours, if out of stupidity or desperation, Jobar gets named as the area where the chemicals have been used". And the translator links to this video statement. Remarkably, all the maps created later don't mark Jobar as a target, and if one compares what's shown in the video (battlefield reduced to ruins), that's certainly not where the "doctor" is talking from. --CE (talk) 22:32, 24 August 2013 (UTC)

Original source:
 * Toxic Catch: Syria rebels' chemical lab uncovered near Damascus – RT, Jul 14, 2013


 * They made it sound like a new story. It did sound familiar, but I didn't know that catch well enough to recognize it. So, less relevant, but a point for overall intent and a bit of de-bunking a sort-of false story. By the way I think my glitch is solved (the damn router), with some hours to spare before I crash. Will FINALLY see what I can do here.


 * Islamic Invitation Turkey is mainly recycled crap.
 * P.S. – I did not recognize the story or the photo either. It was Google Image Search again that saved the day. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 11:30, 24 August 2013 (UTC)

Rinse and repeat, or something new?
 * Syrian soldiers find chemical agents in rebel tunnels near Damascus- state TV, August 24. The photo is from July 14. The story again cites Jobar. It says:
 * Syrian army soldiers have found chemical agents when they entered rebel tunnels in Damascus suburb of Jobar, Syrian TV reports, adding that some of them started suffocating. Soldiers "entered the terrorists’ tunnels and saw chemical agents," state television quoted a "news source" as saying. "In some cases, soldiers started suffocating while entering Jobar," it said. "Ambulances came to rescue the people who were suffocating," it added. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:31, 24 August 2013 (UTC)
 * This is new, also reported by Al-Akhbar based on a Reuters item. --CE (talk) 12:03, 24 August 2013 (UTC)

Did not take long to find this. Went to Google news search, it was the top story.Syrian soldiers see chemical agents in rebel tunnels: state TV. Next, the State TV report which should have images. Relation to recent events will remain uncertain, but worth knowing, obviously. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:43, 24 August 2013 (UTC)


 * The relation to recent events is indirect: both are related to the SAA operation to retake the Eastern Ghouta. If Syria had some information that the rockets were launched from Jobar they might concentrate their operations there, in order to secure the launch site and possibly recover some of the hardware. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 18:47, 24 August 2013 (UTC)

Videos
My YouTube playlist: Brown Moses has a list with 120 videos. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 18:43, 21 August 2013 (UTC)
 * http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL5WYCTqm6QUFEgCRhTevaLEr2inzR7jZM
 * http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLPC0Udeof3T4NORTjYmPoNCHn2vCByvYG

The earliest original videos seem to be coming from the Kvrbtna Coordinating Committee (تنسيقية كفربطنا): I have no idea where "Kvrbtna" is, but searching for the word in Arabic only brings up massacre pictures and videos. (The logo on the videos says it is Kafar Batna City.) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 19:41, 21 August 2013 (UTC)
 * http://www.youtube.com/user/syriafredoom/videos
 * Kafar Batna is here on the southern outskirts of Irbin (there's a "Al Fateh Hospital" central in the markation). The two places given by the reddit collection are at least two kilometers north-west of that in Jobar. The mentioned Ain Terma and Zamalka are in between.--CE (talk) 20:25, 21 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Excellent start here, Petri, thanks. No time left today. 120 videos? Will not be watching most of those. More soon. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:49, 21 August 2013 (UTC)


 * The Visual Evidence of a Chemical Attack in Syria Is Overwhelming and Disturbing – Dashiell Bennett / The Atlantic Wire, August 21, 2013
 * The government has officially denied using any such weapons, but the United Nations inspection team that arrived in the country on Sunday (to investigate previous claims of chemical weapon attacks) has been denied access to the site. As a result, the images below are the only evidence we have of the devastation — and there is a lot of evidence.

Amer mosa video
The first video on the Brown Moses list is one that allegedly shows the nighttime launching of the chemical rockets on Eastern Ghouta. When I order my list by publication time, it turns out to be the earliest video on my list. YouTube metadata API says the video was published 2013-08-21T01:09:55.000Z – that is 4 am in Syria. The video is by someone who calls himself amer mosa. He has four videos on his account, all uploaded within the last week. The first is some Islamist chant or prayer. The second shows a rebel group capture a huge cache of 9K38 Igla anti-aircraft missiles. Three hours ago he posted his fourth video, Al Jazeera instruction on how to protect oneself from chemical weapons. The videos suggest he is a Islamist fighter, possibly a foreigner who recently arrived through Daraa.
 * ‫لحظة اطلاق الصواريخ‬ المحملة بلرؤؤس الكمياوية على الغوطة الشرقية حسبي الله ونعم الوكيل فيك يا بشار (The moment of firing rockets charged chemical Ppleras on East Gouta God and yes you, O Bashar agent)
 * Note the typo in the word chemical (الكمياوية) in the title, on Google it show all copies.
 * اليكم الدليل إغتنام صواريخ حرارية مضادة للطيران من اللواء 38 في درعا يتسأل الشهيد الذي قصفه الطيران (Directory you seize the anti-thermal rockets from General Aviation 38 in Daraa Atsal the martyr who bombed Aviation)

The video of the nighttime launching of the rocket suggests that he (or who ever made the video) was part of the rebel group firing the rocket. I cannot quite understand the title, but I guess it says they are firing chemical weapons at Assad's agents. The timing of the video is also pf interest. The video was uploaded before the news of the attack broke out. How could he have known that the rocket pictured was carrying a chemical warhead, unless he was part of the team? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 02:19, 22 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Spooky pattern, cool find. I'll say hypothetically, they happened to be near enough and panned in to film a firing by the regime at midnight, drive to the attacked area, learn of the chemical gas, and knowing that, upload this so titled at 4 a.m. But I doubt all of that. I'm not sure on the title admitting to firing the missile, a good translation would be needed. I can say firing chemical missile, God, Assad agents are all mentioned. Did you save a copy? Spooky pattern-leaving travelers sometimes pull stuff back down. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:00, 22 August 2013 (UTC)

Nighttime hospital scene
First video starts from the outside, moves inside. Note the green water bottles used for pouring water on victims. These could help identify later inside footage. The first four videos are unlabeled: (1, 2, 3, 4) A strap is hanging from the camera, helping to identify the cameraman. Starting from video 5 the uploads get a Coordinating Committee style logo, but are from the same set of footage: (5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10) One more unlabeled video (11) seems to be from the same place, this one shows fighting age men in and around an operating room. One has a needle stuck to his neck, I suppose for injection of atropine. (See Nerve agent antidotes) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 11:31, 22 August 2013 (UTC)

Context
The second and first videos in the Kafar Batna video set may be the only ones giving these events any context. They show civilians outside the hospital screaming and panicking. Some of them are wearing protection against gas. (The scarfs would be effective against tear gas but not nerve agents.)

The latest video from Kafar Batna is an interview of a very young boy: Child injured with poison gas and killed his father and lost his mother tells what happened on August 21. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 13:08, 22 August 2013 (UTC)

Dead girls in morgue
This unlabeled video, (number 4 in the above nighttime series) show the beginning of the pileup in the morgue. Note the distinctive blanket that is shown at the end of the video. It is also shown in the debunk video discussed below with more young girls piled up on top of it. The scene is a windowless underground room.

The same girls, and the corner of the blanket are later shown at daytime, in a large well-lit room with some one hundred other bodies lined up. The video is also uploaded by Kafr Batna Coordinating Committee, this time with their Kafar Batna City logo: This comment video on Facebook notes that many bodies in the morgue scene have syringes placed on them. The hospital staff seem to be injecting them with something, most like atropine. It may be that all the bodies are not dead yet.
 * أكثر من مئة شهيد من الذين اسعفو لكفربطنا فقط جراء القصف الكيماوي21\8 (More than a hundred martyrs who Asafo for Kafr Batna only by chemical bombardment August 21)
 * Note the typo in the word (اسعفو = Asafo), should most likely be (اسعفوا = Asafoa?)

In the first video in the Kafar Batna set the victims are brought in into the same room that is later used as the morgue in the daylight scene. (Note the bombed-out windows.) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 12:45, 22 August 2013 (UTC)

On site video
By now we should see video of bodies in situ where they have died. Also we should see video of the attack sites; empty houses where people left in panic. All we see is bodies at the morgue. This leaves open the possibility that the victims where al-Nusra hostages, killed with teargas in some confined space, and brought to the morgue to die. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 19:52, 22 August 2013 (UTC)

Locations
Via M of O: ''The reported neighborhoods of this reported chemical attack in the Damascus Al-Ghouta area are: Hammuriyah, Irbin, Saqba, Kafr Batna, Mudamiyah, Harasta, Zamalka and Ain Terma. Those are rebel-held areas and have been all this year.''

Looking at the two maps it seems the numbers listed are Hammuriyah: 300, Irbin: 64+17+16+30, Saqba: ?, Kafr Batna: 150, Mudamiyah: ?, Harasta: ?, Zamalka: 400 and Ain Terma: 75. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:58, 22 August 2013 (UTC)



Rocket impact site
I am trying to find the location of these two videos. It help to establish the trajectory of Brown Moses' mystery rocket. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 00:19, 24 August 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm having a look. Seems semi-distinct and possible enough to narrow it down, maybe to one, but not guaranteed or easy. Can we even say what directions/time of day? I can only say either a bit before or a bit after mid-day? Doesn't help much. I'm comparing stills to some areas of Irbin, or will start in a minute. The furrows in that field, at 0:10 looking down them. If late morning, you're looking kind of north or perhaps northwest. If early afternoon, more like northeast. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:44, 24 August 2013 (UTC)

Facebook celebrations
There has been an odd element in the early reports of SPIEGEL this morning ... "Assad supporters celebrate" was part of the news. In the article(s) (they publish a lot of newly assembled versions of their stuff over the day) they report that "Harasta News Network" published a statement that "On orders of President Assad, may God protect him, and on orders of proud Syrian Alawite Officers, this morning at half past five East Ghouta was attacked with Chemical Weapons and the operation was finished successfully. We are awaiting details of the operation in the next hours". (my translation of what you find in the last paragraph of the German language article). At 10:30 AM (not specified for both if German or Syrian time zones) "the site was taken from the net" (sic) Also, they claim, a facebook page called "Shohdaa.alwatan" claimed that 500 died in a "cleansing operation". A search for "Harasta News Network" only gave a small number of indifferent results, most of them German news articles quoting SPIEGEL. Maybe worth investigating - I don't do facebook. --CE (talk) 00:21, 22 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Clearly, this sounds like a pretty fishy allegation. Someone may have actually even typed that into an actual loyalist site, etc. Just like you can with John Snow's blog. To me, it only shows that someone in the opposition knows they need some supports here, quick. This admittedly doesn't make much sense. Consider this desperate activist explaining it all ((Observers France 24): "I think the regime doesn’t care that the UN inspectors are less than 5 kilometres away. On the contrary, by carrying out these bombings despite the observers’ presence, they’re sending a crystal-clear message to the international community." He doesn't say just what the message is supposed to be, other than that it's so super clear some are mistaking it for an obvious false-flag operation. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:35, 23 August 2013 (UTC)

U.N. Investigator Response
This is an area to watch closely, and maybe worth some discussion and thought. It's thorny stuff. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:17, 23 August 2013 (UTC)

Obviously, the U.N. chemical weapons inspection team had just arrived not two days before this to start a two-week mission. They were based in a Damascus hotel less than 5 km away from one activist who said "I think the regime doesn’t care that the UN inspectors are less than 5 kilometres away. On the contrary, by carrying out these bombings despite the observers’ presence, they’re sending a crystal-clear message to the international community." (exact alleged message unspecified) Similarly, CNN reported this taunt:
 * "The inspectors will not come," said a resident who didn't want his real name used. "If they wanted to come, they would have come a long time ago. The Assad regime determines where the inspectors go, and they will not let them go there. There is already a siege around Eastern Ghouta from the Assad regime." --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:17, 23 August 2013 (UTC)

From a Washington Post report:
 * ''Ake Sellstrom, the Swedish scientist who heads the U.N. inspection team in Syria, told the Swedish media that he had seen only the television images of the alleged attacks. "But the high number of wounded and dead they are speaking about sounds suspicious,” Sellström told Swedish news agency TT, via telephone from Damascus. “It sounds like something one should take a look at.”

And of course, Western powers are demanding exactly that the "inspectors," as activists keep calling them, be allowed to cruise over there and somehow find out if CW were used, but carefully not decide by whom. The pull of events sucking Sellstrom's team into the (rebel-infested false-flag free-fire) zone is immense. They are being played up as heroes - inspirational non-Muslim ones! - who would be immensely mourned if they did show up and see the truth, only to be gassed by "the regime" before they escaped with the truth. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:17, 23 August 2013 (UTC)

That's a possible plot, however likely, that might be part of why Damascus won't let them go. As Fabius said, Assad would be caught "with his hand in the till" and NATO bombing would be the most logical next step. So to avert that, maybe Damascus will have to let them go to ... Arbin to Zamalka, what, 8-9 places? By the time it's done, two weeks will be long passed. Or they will get gassed too on the third stop, and "Assad" will be caught hiding the truth, and thus, same next logical step. Or, Syria promises to let them go, once the surrounding countryside is cleared again, which will take way more than three weeks. In case any witnesses in Khan al-Assal remain alive, no one will come talk to them.--Caustic Logic (talk) 11:17, 23 August 2013 (UTC)


 * An "operations room" in Khan Al-Assal has issued a statement demanding that the Investigators first go to Ghouta, or else they won't get access to Khan Al-Assal. The Russians say Syria is ready for "maximum" cooperation. Maybe your first suspicion among the line of "dead investigators are bad for Damascus" was spot on. --CE (talk) 11:24, 23 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Fascinating twist there. They are really being pushed, geographically, to this spot(s), in a palpable way that's ominous. Also, distracting from Aleppo is central, and this helps show that. Statement should continue: "if you go to Gouta first - ALL sites and there are five more we forgot to mention - and get here, alive, we promise to cooperate fully, and that if anyone gasses you here, it will be the regime, not us." --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:19, 23 August 2013 (UTC)

Motives?
Here is my first draft on the motives of the parties to commit the act. The section should be moved to article space after, maybe some minor editing. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 02:26, 24 August 2013 (UTC)

Rebels
While the Western public is eager to believe the "evil tyrant" Assad "gassed his own people" it is equally difficult to believe the "freedom fighting" rebels would have murdered 1800 Syrian civilians. There are however at least four major reasons why the rebels would gain or benefit from the gas attack.

The first round of reporting on the incident has almost exclusively followed the rebel narrative and blamed the "Assad regime" for the attack.
 * 1) Blame Assad

This is no coincident, but follows a carefully rehearsed choreography – from the the al Bayda massacre in Cyrenaica, Libya on February 22, 2011 that triggered UNSC resolution 1970 on Fabruary 26, to the Houla massacre in Taldo Syria. Every time the Western led "international community" has accused "oppressive regimes" when the real culprits have been Islamist revolutionaries.

Ultimately the aim of the aim of the rebels is to get the West to intervene in the war on their side. If that fails, at least it boost their support among the Western audience. At a minimum it will lead to calls for a ceasefire – likely to be to the rebels advantage.


 * 2) Distract UN investigation
 * See U.N. Investigator Response above.

It has always been known, or at least suspected, that al-Qaeda has a WMD program. The purported aim of such a program is to repeat 9/11, conceivably on a much larger scale. The War on Terror was launched precisely to prevent such an attack ever happening.
 * 3) Part of Al-Qaeda WMD program

The ultimate outcome of such a program would be a set of DIY instructions that could be distributed by Inspire magazine and its sister publications. The plans need to be executable with normal garage tools from parts obtainable from any hardware store. The DIY rockets described by Brown Moses would satisfy this requirement.

The Syrian conflict has seen a gradual development of al-Qaeda CW capability, from initial demonstrations with rabits, posted on YouTube, to successful but small scale attacks, like the one in Khan Al-Asssal in March 2013, to confiscation of canisters of sarin from al-Qaeda operatives in Turkey and Syria.

If the numbers of 1600 killed are anywhere near the truth, then one must conclude that a rocket attack like this, fully executed, could kill 50,000 people in a heavily populated Western metropolis (twice the number if done al-Qaeda style as a coordinated double attack), with little immediate risk to the perpetrators. For the WMD deterrence effect – or in this case, the terror effect – to work, the WMD capability has to be demonstrated in vivo.

The al-Qaeda affiliates al-Nusra and ISIS have become dominant in the rebel held territories in the north near the Turkish border, while rebel forces in the south are in much tighter US control. Recent months have seen increased infighting between the rebels, culminating in all-out war between the Kurdish YPG and al-Qaeda in the north. The attack might be an attempt by al-Qaeda to usurp leadership in the south by terrorizing other rebel groups and their supporters into subjugating to al-Qaeda rule.
 * 4) Rebel infighting

They may see it as a divine revenge to the people of Ghouta for failing the revolution and surrendering to Assad, like Hitler's orders to Albert Speer to destroy everything. Besides, in the end it does matter who gets killed, Allah will sort out the righteous from the infidels.

Government
"Governments and armies do stupid things."
 * Stupidity

It never happened?
The government has been sticking to the story "it never happened". (Maybe it did, they just never heard about it.) I would say the evidence is yet inconclusive. There is a huge number of videos, coming from seemingly independent rebel YouTube channels. Most, if not all of the videos are however hospital footage, with nothing that shows the victims or the attack in situ. I do not think the dead people are staged, but for all we know the victims could be (Kurd) hostages gassed to death in some "confined space".

The New York Times reports:
 * While the veracity of the visual evidence uploaded to YouTube could not be independently established, chemical weapons experts told The Times that the injuries seen in footage from the region did not appear to be consistent with the effects of a conventional chemical weapon like sarin or mustard gas and that the deaths might have been caused by the use of a weaker chemical agent in a confined space.

Russia Today says they cannot confirm the attacks happened:
 * ''A correspondent for the Russian TV channel RT Arabic succeeded in contacting local residents in the area of the alleged chemical weapons attack. RT reports, that the locals replied to the correspondent, that they have not witnessed any “poisonous attack” in the area, but that they could hear gunfire.

AINA TV says they were at or near the scene filming with their nine cameras, and saw now sign of the use of chemical weapons: -- Petri Krohn (talk) 01:03, 22 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Documented evidence of the non-use of chemical weapons in Eastern Gouta today

This video debunks a large part of the story (now translated into English): The same group of small children (girls mainly, like the ones we saw in the Baniyas massacre) are filmed in at least tree different arrangements. Each piece of footage is then published by a different rebel YouTube channel. (One of them is the Kafr Batna Coordinating Committee) Did they move the bodies around to film them in different parts of the Eastern Ghouta? For all I know these could be Kurd children massacred in Tal-Abyad by ISIS. (See Dead girls in morgue above.) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:29, 22 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Fake massacre by Syrian army using Chemical weapons – Translated by Syrians in Sweden
 * Watched that. I agree with their call. It seems she's been been presented in three spreads that seem to be described as different victims batches in different towns. Three times, one victims. Other matches should be likely if so. And yes, they would be that sloppy and usually are. But in one room, we see what looks like about two dozen young girls. As a baseline indicator, this has to be big. I'd estimate 30 boys, 20 women, 30 men, another just-triple-digits on-the-fringes "Shabiha" massacre of certain families is a lot what it looks like, but with no visible wounds. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:25, 22 August 2013 (UTC)

It never happened? It very damn well could not have happened, in the slightest bit. But I do suspect it damn well did, at least a bit. And I'm damn friggin' mad about it, and behind on the alleged details. I suspect a poison gas was deployed somewhere, and also a large number of people, including kids, were murdered in the rebel-infested parts of Reef Dimashq. Locals "have not witnessed any “poisonous attack” in the area, but that they could hear gunfire," RT heard. I wonder if the kind of shells used were the same ones used on Alawite Aqrab in December, per opposition sources causing all the deaths that occurred there? Those two were sometimes snipers, and sometimes hacked open kids' skulls. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:39, 22 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Didn't think it through, but the comparison might be better than I thought. The result of the alleged Abrab shelling was rebels in control of the area, 500 Alawite civilians in custody, 300 released, 200 unknown. Confined into a single house, they were denied food and water and had their air poisoned with the smoke of burning tires. Smoke, chlorine, sarin, what have you, and recalling that crossing the "red line" is a bonus... If civilians at gunpoint could be abducted and confined (yes) and if people rebels dislike enough or consider expendable still exist in Syria (yes, in abundance) then "the deaths might have been caused by the use of a weaker chemical agent in a confined space.'' --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:25, 22 August 2013 (UTC)

It never happened? Big picture, above stands, but it seems at least something on the scale of the Houla massacre but with toxic gas happened, perhaps with some battles and dead rebels thrown in, and some creative bookkeeping allowing reports of 1,000 + gassed to panic everyone into "urgent" action. Syria will need to have a look and more carefully say what did and didn't happen. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:25, 22 August 2013 (UTC)

According to several Assadist sources the attack could not have happened because "Al Jazzera, Reuter published the news of massacre in East Ghouta, Damascus one day before the massacre happened." Yeah, pro-Assad Syrians are not very computer savvy. :-( Petri Krohn (talk) 14:15, 22 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I read - skimmed - that yesterday as well. ;o) What is official Youtube-Time? --CE (talk) 14:29, 22 August 2013 (UTC)

Maybe only indirectly related: If you wanna play a chemical attack victim, better not be ticklish... ;oD --CE (talk) 14:51, 22 August 2013 (UTC)

RT is sticking to the "wrong timeline" story:
 * Materials implicating Syrian govt in chemical attack prepared before incident – Russia – RT, August 23, 2013
 * Despite the 7-hour time difference between Syria and the US, where the YouTube server is located, the mismatch of the dates in the videos raised concerns among some experts about the exact time of the upload.

Even the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Aleksandr Lukashevich is falling for this.''“The materials of the incident and accusations against government troops had been posted for several hours before the so-called attack. Thus, it was a pre-planned action.”'' Doesn't Russia have a fucking intelligence service!
 * Agreed, big fail. It says right there it's U.S. eastern time, which I think is actually 8 hours earlier. 4 am Syria = 8 pm "the previous day" on Youtube. 4 hours of it followed. The actual news story should have been "Despite the 7-hour time difference between Syria and the US, where the YouTube server is located, the mismatch of the dates in the videos raised concerns among some experts about the exact time of the upload," and thus not run! When they say pre-planned, I hope they don't mean this, but just that you don't do this without planning. Or based on some other evidence they can share. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:10, 24 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Is this possiblya subtle joke, or a "soft power" trick that they too can push transparent propaganda, or something? For a nation with 11 time zones, you think they'd get this issue better than most. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:10, 24 August 2013 (UTC)

Looking at YouTube Gdata, I get timestamps 2013-08-21T03:37:12.000Z 2013-08-21T02:51:02.000Z and 2013-08-21T01:00:54.000Z for the three videos embedded on the RT page. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 20:39, 23 August 2013 (UTC)

Chemicals injected after death?
The morgue video from Kafr Batna shows victims being injected with syringes, as noted here. Assad supporters have picked on this an are now claiming the victims were injected after death, apparently to plant false evidence for the UN investigators to find. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:40, 23 August 2013 (UTC)
 * One way or another, they got samples running barricades to the U.N. people, should be there by now with a few km involved. I'm guessing it's samples of human blood they got chemicals into. As that's the whole idea, this sounds plausible. As for doing it right there on video, sure, I could see that audacity, given what I've seen. Otherwise, I don't know. Kind of seems they were killed by gassing, so ideally just that exposure is what would be most realistic.--Caustic Logic (talk) 15:10, 24 August 2013 (UTC)
 * I do not believe there is anything fake in any of the videos. I think all the people in the videos genuinely believe they were gassed by "Assad". How would they know if it was al-Qaeda that launched the rockets? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 18:38, 24 August 2013 (UTC)