Torture Photos from "Caesar"/Photo Timeline

The following seeks to organize at least many of the "Caesar" photos into a timeline and correlate details as possible. The pictures database of the Syrian Association for Missing and Conscience Detainees (SAFMCD) is used for reference, along with previously published photos, claimed identifications, opposition VDC entries, and other sources.

All folders at the SAFMCD site (auto-translated from Arabic), in order of size:
 * 215 - secret raids and intrusions - 3,556 photos
 * 227 - Zone Branch (Damascus) - 2,047 photos
 * Air Force Intelligence Branch - 390 photos
 * 216 - periodicals Branch - 297
 * 235 - Palestine Branch - 128
 * "Anonymous branch": 109
 * 251 - Internal branch - the state security: 103
 * "Sporadic views": 71
 * 248 - military investigation Branch - 54
 * 220 - Sasa branch: 50
 * Military Police Branch: 45

Total photos = 6,850. All but a very few are victim face-shots, with very few repetitions (at least six cases, but citation needed). Therefore, estimates of alleged detainees of these branches in the mid-to-upper 6,000 range seem well supported.

Furthermore, the time-span seems limited. Images are said to run back to early 2012, but it seems so far very few images appear (in folders dated) before November 1, 2012. However, that's a giant folder and stretches back over an unclear span. From there they come in heavily, with folder names like 3-2013, 7-7-2013, and running up to August 14, 2013 - so covering mainly a nine-month span, depending when all the images in the November folder were taken (dates seem to be when created, and even that's not necessarily correct).

At right is a graphic to explain the numbers referred to below. The top victim number, allegedly, was assigned by the branch of military intelligence indicated below that. The bottom number is set at hospital 601 morgue, apparently by the team taking the "Caesar" photos. "SAFMCD code #" is their index, irrelevant, but useful for searches etc. (on each photo of theirs in red). "Original name" is the photo title as given by SAFMCD with each linked entry. It seems to say branch-victim#-date(d-mm-yyyy)-(number in sequence of photos of the same victim?). As for the victim the numbers in this photo are attached to, see Branch 227 below.

Select and random victims by branch number (in the order above), then victim number.

Branch 215
some unclear strays to work in (re-set points, typos, or what?):


 * 0 -- none -- 806948 http://www.safmcd.com/martyr/view.php?id=3976 -- 215-000-2-12-2012 (2)
 * 0 -- none -- 686239 -- 215-000-2-2013 (9) -- young
 * 8 -- -- 274882 http://www.safmcd.com/martyr/view.php?id=3988 -- 215-0008-7-6-2013 (2)
 * 11 -- -- 774319 http://www.safmcd.com/martyr/view.php?id=3990 -- 215-11-14-8-2013 (2) -- left eye?
 * 131 137832 -- 215-131-3-2013 (2)
 * 197 -- 377904 http://www.safmcd.com/martyr/view.php?id=3996 -- 215-197-2-2013 (2)
 * 829 453067 -- 215-829-2-2013 (2)

The Other Half
All above sections deal with the half (28,707) of the "Caesar" photos (per HRW's December report) showing an estimated 6,786 alleged government detainees. A slightly smaller half (24568) was said by HRW to show "attack sites or of bodies identified by name as of government soldiers, other armed fighters, or civilians killed in attacks, explosions, or assassination attempts." It seems perhaps none of these have been publicly released. Here's a table in case any turn up.

By Hospital Number
I've scanned all the images I have (most of them...) and got a ton of hospital/exam/body # (above, card bottom #). Every number on these cards is suspect, but this is the most likely to be reliable/valid and also seems to map out well over time. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:26, 16 February 2016 (UTC)


 * One of the main points of this page and tables above was to check time correlation (not clear, covered below) and the claims that over 11,000 victims are suggested (they say bodies were numbered 1-5,000, then re-started with a /b at the end up to 5,000/b, and then started on a third letter. Other than the first 2,000 entries and the last part after 10,000 is reached, this is confirmed quite well, and two full sets of 5,000 are suggested. There is no (clear) coverage before entry 2065, and at the late end this odd spot - either 544 and a separate 4 for no clear reason, or this is body number 5444 with no /b. Maybe the switch was after this? Not clear enough to include in this quick table shows the lowest non- and highest (clear, and consistent) number in each series. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:30, 18 February 2016 (UTC)

Timeline: I plotted out several dozen cases where I can match that victim to a SAFMCD entry, with original file name including folder date. The folder dates aren't gospel, and as we can see below they mainly aren't very specific - about one a month. At the moment, I'm taking the date as creation date, filled with new and maybe previous images, and also added to until the next one is started. Not clear.

It's hyped how "Caesar's" photos show torture and repression for the whole conflict from March, 2011 to August, 2013. But the numbers suggest only about 1,000 unidentified bodies - less than 10% of the total implied - were logged between the start and July, 2012. 1,000 in 15 months is an average of less than 70 a month.

Probably that many victims are listed, but no reliable #s yet. The earliest possible hospital #s are in the 500-1100 range – this is a thing that emerged analyzing Majed Abu Draa – it seems likely his hospital number 1075 was re-branded as branch 215 ID# way out of sequence - others in the span seem to fit the same pattern, often duplicating ID 3s in the process. … these seem to fit actually, correlating logically to June and July 2012 folders.

But otherwise, there's a huge gap; the first clear H #s are in low 2000s, already in the 1-11-2012 folder. Here I've mapped the numbers from here forward, from 2,000 to 5,000, repeating 1,000-5,000 with a /b suffix, and the suggested 1,000+ past that, although no examples at all have been seen yet.

It's not clear how far back the 1-11 folder covers, but likely some span - it's huge. And on the other end, #s reportedly go to over 11,000 and the last folder 14-8 is both huge and short on body shots with visible H#s - they probably do tick up that far unseen to us. So … this implies at least 8000 and perhaps over 10,000 unidentified or coded bodies passed through in 10 months, or the span covered by these folders. I suspect 1-11 covers the time frame of the Daraya in August and whatever else, from the size of it, so likely a span of one year. 8-10,000 over 10-12 month = Average rate: 700-1,000/month - at least ten times the rate over the first year. Final 5-6 months saw about 6,500 - at least 1,083/month.

What strange luck - just as "Caesar" got his insider documentation system down, someone decided to start really sending mass numbers of horribly abused bodies for him to document. And it might be the final folder was the worst yet (pending analysis, range of all folders a bit unclear...) and I bet it fell off once he stopped recording, and also the Ghouta massacre happened, and hostage stocks might finally have gotten low. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:26, 16 February 2016 (UTC)


 * Also FWIW the branch victim #s tend to tick upward logically as if they covered a portion of the sequentially discovered unidentified bodies. At least 215 and 227 (about 75% of the total) do this, other than the few odd entries or groups like mentioned above. The one exception I've noticed is Air Force intel, J - their numbers bounce around a lot - 9000s killed and then 2,000s a month later, etc. But they have other weird patterns too I mean to explain somewhere. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:39, 16 February 2016 (UTC)
 * And before I confuse many people, my suspicion now is the branch victim # is made up by the terrorist killers, written on the bodies before dumping or even before killing them. "Caesar" had the job of "verifying" that, maybe just by putting the real hospital # alongside the numbers on the body, on these official cards. So the supposed proof of bouncing numbers, which is rare anyway, is just a poorly written attempted proof. The terrorists mainly just numbered their victims sequentially based on the order they were murdered, or numbered within a batch about to gt it. This wasn't too bright as far as setting "Caesar" up to claim it's a military intel prisoner # ... but it would be easier to keep track of and avoid screwing up. But as we'll see, it got screwed up anyway. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:21, 18 February 2016 (UTC)

Early Entries Re-Branded?

 * I apologize for going on in talk mode on a front page. It seemed right for this case, plus I've gotten rusty on site protocol lately. --Caustic Logic (talk) 16:39, 21 February 2016 (UTC)
 * Clearer but long explanation of this issue: Fail "Caesar" Part 7: Inventing More Coded Prisoners?. The following but for the big table becomes more like optional reading. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:33, 27 February 2016 (UTC)

As mentioned above, case of Majid Abu Draa has an odd issue with his 215 ID# 1075 (he also has a branch 227 ID#) being seen in this fuller view on a card - no 215 is specified, and no other number. Usually when we see that, especially on early photos, it's the hospital or unidentified body number. As we'll see, that number makes sense in context of mid-2012.

There might be another 1075, but not that I've found yet. What we do see is this ...

Supposed prisoner ID# is repeated three times here that I had found - 1071, 1072, 1123, each having on repeat an early, mid-2012 hospital photo like Majid's, the other like and dated like those around it. I've discovered more in the shown range since making this plate, further into the 110s and sporadically back into the 500s - maybe 70 entries or more, some with later duplicates found, some not yet. What are the odds they decided to kill several 500-1100 range prisoners in mid-2012 and the rest six months later (an unusual pattern), and happen to have several duplicate ID #s in this narrow range, and hardly anywhere else? Majid is the only case where we can see the number on a card, and it's shady - looks like "Caesar" decided to fill in some 215 victims that never existed, and re-branded the right hospital #s. It also helps prove his theory the branch victim 3 represents prisoner ID, not death or finding date - how can some of these people be found six months ahead of the rest? Right?

Anyway ... he's the only direct glimpse but it leads into a pattern that keeps making sense. I noticed the same issue to a lesser degree in the 227 folder - which is less complete on my end so far. But I filled it in some more and then found enough instances to show the same pattern continuing. Some duplicates, usually with one a 1-6, 1-7 or 1-8 hospital photo. (there are some other kinds of duplication, but just one other set I've included below). As we can see, it's a and continuous string of entries with this kind of number jammed in even when it conflicts with later entries, split between two branches with no repeats noticed yet within the string, just within the branches it's jammed into ... noticeable switch-over points. Those with an identified later duplicate number they trip over indicated with a D. --Caustic Logic (talk) 16:24, 18 February 2016 (UTC)


 * And also, the same seems to continue into other branches, at least 216, and Air Force Intelligence. Probably the others too... --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:54, 19 February 2016 (UTC)


 * Some appear in Sporadic Views, but numbers and dates don't lead to clear pattern fits (any that do witll be in the "other" column, marked S). More were in the natural place - Unknown or Anonymous branch - the MI division responsible wasn't clear in these cases - no forehead tape, just a coded victim # somehow known but no one it's pinned on. In each of the several cases I'll add below, it's an early hospital photo, dated that way 5-8 of 2012), with a mystery number fitting exactly into the pattern, and probably just what the hospital # would be at that time. In the other cases, they decided just who to pin that number on. --Caustic Logic (talk) 07:14, 20 February 2016 (UTC)

(select links at least - 6-digit # included lets you search the SAFMCD site for the picture)
 * D = duplicate
 * In "Other" column:
 * j=Air Force Intelligence
 * S="Sporadic Views"
 * U=Unknown/Anonymous Branch

At right, a visualization of one well-filled-in stretch, likely re-branded hospital numbers 535-549 compared with duplicate entries in the 215 folder.

2048 and 2058 do not fit the main pattern, but instead re-illustrate it - in these two cases, there are no duplicates yet, but the November asphalt photos are shoehorned in with similar-numbered victims killed in July, 2013. The running victim numbers for most in the November folder was back in the 3-400 range. What's odd, as we see above with the lowest body number entry, he's 227-394 - same span ... body number 2065. What are the odds the few out-of-sequence prisoners killed here 2048, 2058, also had victim numbers matching with current hospital # range. Too slim, sorry. So this marks a second occurrence of the pattern illustrated by Majid. !! Cool sound of holes tearing? --Caustic Logic (talk) 16:24, 18 February 2016 (UTC)
 * Same for j-2084 - what odds! TWO different branches pulled the same thing at the same time, victim #s between 2000 and 2100, despite their entirely different systems. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:05, 19 February 2016 (UTC)


 * Another later entry helps illustrate this is a re-branded body/hospital # - unknown branch contains 578929 labeled 4308-24-6-2013 (1). No branch but 215 and J have "prisoner ID" #s that high, and this didn't seem to fit. But if we take it as the other number, and presume it's missing a /b, it fits perfect between the closest entries:


 * 4264/b -- 227-2615 -- 7-7-2013 - starved, eye damage/chemical signs (eyes, skin, blood/mucous)- other views show tattoos showing he was a Christian
 * 4308/b? -- 4308 (branch unknown/never invented) -- 24-6-2013 - starved, eyes out/damaged, slight decay (dry), chem signs (skin irritation, poss. cyanosis, eyes)
 * 4311/b -- 216-305 -- 24-6-2013 - decayed (discolored bloating, eyes popping out), possible chemical signs (purple color, poss. eye damage)


 * Note this even fits the switch from the 7-7 folder (first entry) to some later bodies documented earlier in the 24-6 folder (the others). For a third pretty clear point, we can see this is just the number of a body that was verified as just a body and cataloged at hospital 601. In all but the "U" cases above, someone on "Team Caesar" decided how to divvy these up to different MI branches, when it seems nothing did this in the first place. These victims tend to be early in the operation, and mostly lack the trademark forehead tape we saw appearing later. I suppose the whole idea hadn't gelled just yet. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:53, 20 February 2016 (UTC)


 * Same for unknown 4643-7-7-2013 (1)-768559 - fits between 4450/b (248-63, 26-7-2013) and 4813/b (215-4002, 6-2013), with some more folder bouncing. --Caustic Logic (talk) 05:39, 21 February 2016 (UTC)

If we ignore the apparently fake branch attribution and take these non-repeating numbers as hospital/body numbers, and mapped it out by folder, it would look like this below. The purple span correlates to the start of the later span covered in the graphic further up the page. One might note how logically this fits with the established pattern of a steadily increasing death toll in the "Caesar" photos system. --Caustic Logic (talk) 16:39, 21 February 2016 (UTC)