Talk:Odessa Trade Union massacre/Clashes

Locations
(for new finds, searches, etc.) --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:30, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

Timeline
Does Ukraine observe DST? All MH17 calculations presumed so, but ... Time and Date.com says Ukraine abolished standard time and opted to stay in permanent savings (summer) time in 2011, by vote of parliament. "Clocks in Ukraine were turned one hour ahead for the last time on Sunday, March 27, 2011," it says. Huh. Apparently was a Party of Regions move in consort with Russia (now switching back?) and Belarus. Kiev would presumably have changed this back to be more "European," but it's not refected at that page. Will continue to act as if. It's said Trade Union hall incursion was around 8 PM, and that's about sunset - using DST on, the NOAA solar calculator says sunset is about 8:00 that day in Odessa, instead of 7. Other thoughts? --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:30, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

From the Wikipedia Odessa clashes page:
 * A game scheduled in Odessa at 15:00 ... about 300 (pro-federalist) people gathered hours earlier -
 * Pre-rally at 14:00
 * first shooting around 13:40 --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:30, 25 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Considering the video timing below, these times might all be in GMT, 2 or maybe 3 hours behind local times I'd rather work with (sunset at 8PM base time - outting the rally at 4 PM) --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:43, 25 August 2014 (UTC)


 * 4:18-4:26: approximate time by shadows at the 10-minute point in the 20-minute Ustream video of the Unity rally and first clashes (azimuth estimate at 9:45 and 13:00 marks both about 251-253 degrees, elevation about 40 degrees? NOAA solar calculator (GMT +2, DST on) says that will be about 4:18-4:26PM. This would put the video's start amidst the rally around 4:10 PM, suggesting the game isn't until 1700 local, not 1500 (at least as I'm measuring here). --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:43, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

So this is some time into things, halfway between first clashes and the sunset massacre. But still, just around the corner from the first events. Hm. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:30, 25 August 2014 (UTC)
 * 5:05 PM: 7-minute clash video - on Zhukova lane by the stadium (?) I paused it at 1:26 to consider the man at upper left's shadow relative to the pavement edge here, for a solar azimuth of about 261 degrees (nearly west) Approximate shadow length vs. height gives a solar altitude - an oddly low 30 degrees or so. Can those coexist at a single time? Yes. NOAA says 5:05 PM (17:05) is a great fit: az 260.96, El 29.85


 * UNHRC: "...between 6.00 – 6.30 p.m., (federalists) decided to take refuge in the nearby Trade Union Building."
 * 7:31 - first emergency call, fire in tent camp
 * UNHRC: "At 7.43 p.m., the HRMMU called the fire brigade..."
 * UNHRC: "At around 8.00 p.m., the “Pro-Unity” activists entered the Trade Union Building" (apparently earlier...) --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:31, 25 August 2014 (UTC))
 * 8:07 PM - sunset (per NOAA solar calc, GMT +2, DST on)
 * 8:09 PM: fire crews arrive, further delayed by the mob

Clashing Parties
Militant actors, listed in order of "who started it" (as understood - may change)
 * (clearly anti-Maidan by appearance - likely flase-flag provocateurs)
 * Unity Rally (includes all who were in and moved with it - reportedly attacked by the above and fought back)
 * Other Anti-Maidan (at the site of earlier clashes, and at the Kolukivo field camp and later inside the Trade Union hall, but not apparently on its roof - presumably legitimate unless they show contrary signs, like the red-armband guys do)
 * Kulikovo Attack Mob (anyone who stayed with the same march as it went almost 2 km off course to attack people only maybe connected to the earlier clashes should be considered a different group by then with a different flavor and mission) --Caustic Logic (talk) 06:13, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

Red Armband Contingent
This shady-looking group is almost universally attributed, by people on each side of the issue, to the other side. The anti-Maidan sources call these Right Sector or similar, often noting that they're trying to appear "pro-Russian." Oriental Review report speaks of and shows "unidentified masked gunmen wearing St. George ribbons (symbol of antifascist resistance to Kievan junta!!!) and red arm-bands," and is pretty clear that they're more likely to be pro-Kiev extremists in disguise and acting as provocateurs. Meanwhile, Western mainstream and pro-Kiev reports describe these same instigators simply as the "pro-Russian" militants who, it seems, brandished the first guns, drew the first blood, and sparked all the ensuing violence (which it seems was very prone to combustion and extended burning). And, as the other side notices, they visually seem to be the greatest beneficiaries of early police inaction. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:33, 25 August 2014 (UTC)



Consider this image of a motley line-up in this camp (cropped a bit here from the usual view to give more face-space). Is it just this shot that makes them look so comical, more like they showed up to parody someone else than to be themselves? (It's no coincidence that's why I picked this shot to start with). Those silver shields clustered in front of them shields will be a couple dozen crouching policemen, although you can't tell from this angle. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:33, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

the 7:00 clash video shows the same scene from above; this seems to be on north-running Zhukova lane where these militants and police are somehow in one group, being pelted and pushed back by others. Some are seen running here from people largely wearing yellow and blue. They're making a show of taking shelter behind the cops, who let them. The militants are even pointing guns from behind them, if not firing (possible shots fired in audio, no expert). A composite view from several moments shows most of the relevant scene and at least 5 red armbands (right half). Points of note:
 * The militants make weak, useless barricades behind the police, and get seen moving things around as if they might be (a guy moves one tree inside a fenced area for no reason - 1:00 upper screen)
 * They aren't coordinating this with the police, very well - police trip over their trash bins while retreating
 * An interesting molotov cocktail with a flare in it (?) is hurled by the other side (lands 3:44, burns with extra energy 'til past 4:00 - this starts their retreat).
 * Several red armbands, esp. early in the video, among those making barricades (right in the panoramic image).
 * A heavyset (fat) guy in tank top with rifle, seen at left 5:55, is seen in the photo above, and also in the next video.
 * star shield - Soviet style? Genuine or parody? (2:16 lower screen, 6:30 left. center in the composite view above)
 * bald man addressing the police the whole video - emphatic gestures, at 3:00 getting upset with the stone throwers too - he's meant to be seen trying to make peace or something. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:33, 25 August 2014 (UTC) and --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:09, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

Another video shows Right Sector shooting at the Trade Union Hall victims (per Washington's Blog and the video uploader anyway) However, it looks too early in the day to be the main event - mid-late PM, location unclear. And this is the murkier but crucial red armbands crew: the fat rifleman is the main shooter. These might be Right Sector people, but it's not known that they are, the finer details of their outfits suggest otherwise, and they're widely called otherwise. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:33, 25 August 2014 (UTC)