Talk:Jabal Badro Rocket Attack

Location
Jabal Badro is in the east of Aleppo, here on Wikimapia. It's fairly near the airport and a few miles from Al-Safira and military bases to the east and southeast that have recently seen much fighting and some rebel conquests, as well as some suspicious massacres. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:39, 21 February 2013 (UTC)

Videos

 * عملية انتشال الشهداء والجرحى في حي جبل بدرو 19 2 2013
 * Syria - Anger in Aleppo as Assad Scud Missile Levels Entire Block in Jabal Badour
 * قصف على حي جبل بدرو أثناء قيام الأهالي بانتشال الضحايا

Was it a Rocket/Missile Strike?
My own best guess is yes, but I've barely looked yet. The damage is quite severe, and while there are other ways of making that happen, one or two powerful missiles launched is the quickest way. Of course, both sides have had or taken possession of the nearby facilities where such missiles would most likely be either fired from or stolen from. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:39, 21 February 2013 (UTC)


 * This source says:
 * The missile was identified from its remains as a Scud-type rocket that government forces have increasingly used in areas under opposition control in the province of Aleppo and in the province of Deir a-Zor to the east, they said.
 * Syrian rocket destroys 3 buildings, kills 20, activists say
 * There are plenty of "activist" photos of the site. Unless I see the remains of the Scud, I say this was a blast in a rebel bomb factory. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 04:34, 28 February 2013 (UTC)

Whodunnit?
As described, this is a rebel-held district. In that regard, the logic clearly suggests it was the other side that hit it. As with the Aleppo University Attack, the question why the government would bomb a refugee center in an area under its own control. Same goes here, and again it won't disprove anything, really. As soon as someone can easily make that argument, the law of reverse psychology says the opposite might well be true just because of that fact. The rebels would hit themselves to blame to government and, in the wake of the University bombing and its ambiguities, to prove that it really is the government that's firing powerful surface missiles around aleppo, some of which get described as jet strikes instead. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:39, 21 February 2013 (UTC)

This spate of rocket attacks is reported (by CNN, as being among "at least eight fired at the ravaged city of Aleppo by government forces since Friday, according to a U.S. official." Or is this a different spate? "In Washington, the U.S. official told CNN that Syria has been launching Scuds about twice a day from outside Damascus toward Aleppo." Are these hitting Jabal Badro, Tal Rifaat, and al-Bab coming from near Damascus? Really? Or is that alleged firing a coincident? Anyway, it brings into focus continued rebel rocket acquisition. Foreign-funneled sources are always possible, but stolen Syrian gear is better in many ways, is about, and keeps getting filmed by rebels standing right over it. So, I'll start a page for that: Rebel Rocket/Missile Acquisition --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:57, 21 February 2013 (UTC)

Area Fighting
Some reports from the last day or two (partial list):

SOHR Feb. 19(late): Aleppo province: The al-Bab city of Reef Aleppo was bombarded by regular forces at midnight with several mortar shells which led to the injury of several civilians and material losses. (Al-Bab is a few miles northeast of Aleppo - not advertised as a missile attack)

SOHR Feb 18: In Reef Aleppo a large explosion rocked the town of Tel Rif'at, it is thought to be the result of a surface-to-surface missile, initial reports of dead and injured. (also north)

SOHR Feb. 20: Aleppo province: Violent clashes took place this morning in the Saba' Bahrat neighbourhood and by the Neyrab military airport, both sides are using rockets and mortars, 1 rebel was killed in Saba' Bahrat, there are reports of further losses on both sides. The Aleppo neighbourhoods of Aqyoul and Qastal Harami were bombarded by regime forces' heavy artillery, several residents were injured. In Reef Aleppo the skies of Orum al-Kubra, Kafarnaha and Khan al-Asal witnessed fighter jets. Rebels from several factions are still surrounding the police academy in Khan al-Asal, they are continuously trying to storm it. The area around the Kweiris military airport, by al-Bab city, is witnessing bombardment from both rebels and regime forces; the rebels have been trying to take the airport for several months.


 * SOHR Feb. 18:
 * Aleppo province: 4 rebels killed. 2 rebels killed by clashes in the al-Jarrah military airport, 1 rebel by the Aleppo international airport and the Neyrab military airport, 1 in al-Sfeira. 1 man was killed by wounds from the bombardment on the town of Tel'aran, by the city of al-Sfeira. In Aleppo city the Marjeh, Masaken Hanano and Karm al-Trab neighbourhoods were bombarded, clashes are taking place in the Bab al-Nasr and Saba' Bahrat neighbourhoods. A rocket fell on the city of al-Bab, no reports of losses. Rebels retreated from the military gas station (Sariyat al-Mahruqat) by the Neyrab military airport, after taking over it for a few hours today. Clashes took place by the police academy in the Khan al-Asal area of western Reef Aleppo, where rebels from several factions, including non-Syrian combatants, have been trying to storm for several months; they are using home-made rockets.
 * AU relevance. Also, SANA reported factories raided there the same day were making explosives and made-up armored vehicles. Rockets too? Why not? --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:18, 21 February 2013 (UTC)


 * LCC Feb. 18: Syria Today 18-2-2013
 * :Aleppo: Tal Rifaat: A surface-to-surface missile targets the town''
 * Video: A Surface-to-Surface Missile Lands in Tal Rifaat, Aleppo" (night-time)

There's a nice triangle, 30-40 km per side, between these midnight strikes, with a mid-point just about 20 km from each one. As it so happens, that spot is about 2 km south of "Village Dam Shahba Alogwat." here on Wikimapia Just in case 20 km means anything. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:20, 25 February 2013 (UTC)

Syrian Perspective
Syrian Perspective has this to say:
 * FIRST POST - FEBRUARY 23, 2013 - REAL NEWS FROM THE BATTLEGROUND
 * 44 rats killed in Hanano when a SCUD missile landed on their headquarters. According to both Wael and our friend, Izzat (who finally contacted me),  the missile was incredibly accurate.  Civilian casualties are also reported, unfortunately, but without detail.
 * Clearly a relevant development. He doesn't specify (there) who fired it, but "accurate" suggests the authorities. Hanano is just northwest of Jabal Badro. The picture is not clearly a different scene even. Is it the same incident he refers to, just a days later count after digging? Otherwise, Same MO but clearer. Rebel fighters downed, must be the government. But is he suggesting both Damascus and the rebels are firing scuds in/on NE Aleppo and Reef Aleppo? Or is he suggesting Damascus alone is doing this? Or the rebels alone? How good is the Scud info at all? I see a 20-mile range suggested here, although on some study Damascus to Aleppo is doable for all models of Scuds Damscus is said to own in plentitude. And for that matter, bases get seized down there too. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:47, 25 February 2013 (UTC)
 * A Scud has a range of 300 kilometers. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 04:26, 27 February 2013 (UTC)
 * Just figured that out. Per Wikipedia, B and D top out at 300, A at like 180, and C at like 550. So clearly we won't be ruling this out that easily. Also, Aleppo is almost exactly 300 km from Damascus per Google Earth, with Al Bab and Tal Rifaat just past that range (app. 330 km). Might have to be C models, then. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:33, 27 February 2013 (UTC)


 * I just found out by chance that he's a prolific commenter on yahoo with 3855 comments. Strolled a bit through his comments. Software reacts strange and I don't know how to link to a specific comment, so bear with me to find the relevant comment as follows: Go to this article. ATM the latest comment is from Ziad Fadel, there are only three so far. Click on his name and a new tab with all his comments will open. Scroll down two dozen or so comments or text search for "Oweis has already been", a comment to this article. Which opens with the exact same photo he uses in his blog post and claims to be from Hanano. On Feb 23. The article and his comment are from Feb 19. Comical Ali:
 * Oweis has already been exposed as an agent for Qatar. Nothing he writes can be believed. He is also a sectarian liar. The photo is not of Aleppo. It's a file from Mosul, Iraq. We have not lost any bases but Taftanaz which was given up because it contained non-usable helicopters. What nonsense. Our army is crushing the JIhadist garbage sent by NATO and the apes of Arabia. Long live secular Syria.
 * Mosul? Hanano? "Nothing he writes can be believed." Hear, hear. --CE (talk) 17:57, 27 February 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm really confused here. The photo is credited to Reuters - did they just launder a re-used photo handed to them? Or did they dig it up themselves? Or is Ziad wrong? No link to the original context to prove it, I note. I don't believe Oweis, he's clearly a propagandist in extremis. As for Ziad, well he's at odds with the information minister, anyway, on this issue that's shaping up to be very major. This could be what triggers the intervention, from the scale and message of it (no turning back, they're nuking their own neighborhoods) and the tone of US pronouncements. His statements could be used as support for Damascus duplicity. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:32, 28 February 2013 (UTC)
 * WTF are you talking about? Of course he's wrong. Either it's Mosul, or it's Hanano, or it isn't either of those (hint: maybe it's Jabal Badro). In all cases he's making shit up. --CE (talk) 01:02, 28 February 2013 (UTC)
 * Pretty much. it seems. I was making a few points at once, in a rush, sorry. Even now, would take too long to explain, so never mind. From HRW's visits to both sites, I consider it unlikely the photos are from the same scene. For now, I'm buying the basic narrative of number, time, and places of attacks. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:19, 28 February 2013 (UTC)

How Many Scud Attacks and When?
It seem SyrPer (above) was referring to a separate strike. The Ard Al-Hamra neighborhood was also hit on Friday the 22nd, activists say. The photos here show a scene quite like Ziad shows. Speaking on the 23rd, Ziad says it's in Hanano, and killed rebel fighters. So we have:


 * Feb. 18/19, three missiles, as covered, Jabal Badro, Tal Rifaat, Al-Bab - and I'm still not 100% they all happened at the same time or just within 24 hours. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:27, 27 February 2013 (UTC)

"Syria's opposition and activists have accused the regime army of firing three powerful missiles at Aleppo city from military base 155 near Damascus on Friday. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says at least 58 people, among them 36 children, were killed when the surface-to-surface missiles struck the Tariq al-Bab district in eastern Aleppo city. The strikes triggered severe condemnation from Washington which described the incident as "the latest demonstrations of the Syrian regime's ruthlessness and its lack of compassion for the Syrian people it claims to represent".''
 * Feb. 22: Daily Star, Feb.25:

And that seems to be about it. These two dates, apparently two sets of synchronized attacks. It's not clear if Tariq al-Bab is the same as Al-Bab. If so, hit twice, it seems. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:27, 27 February 2013 (UTC)
 * Ard AL-Hamra, Wikimapia-again, northeast, north of Hanano, which is north of Jabal al-Badro. And here's Tariq Al-Bab on wikimpaia. Just south of JAB. Some overall range, but little spread in chosen areas at the end of that long range. OR, short range missiles fired from northeast of Aleppo. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:47, 27 February 2013 (UTC)
 * strike areas about 4-6 km apart, depending where. Some mid-points of 2-3 km from each in rebel-held Hanano. Is it short-range rockets this time, like the ones at the university? --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:02, 27 February 2013 (UTC)


 * HRW reports: AP, Feb. 26:
 * At least 141 people, half of them children, were killed when the Syrian military fired at least four missiles into the northern province of Aleppo last week, Human Rights Watch said Tuesday.
 * A Human Rights Watch researcher who visited Aleppo last week to inspect the targeted sites, said up to 20 buildings were destroyed in each area hit by a missile. There were no signs of any military targets in the residential districts, located in rebel-held parts of Aleppo and its northern countryside, said Ole Solvang, the HRW's researcher.
 * [...]
 * Human rights watch said 71 children were among the 141 people killed in the four missile strikes on three opposition-controlled neighborhoods in eastern Aleppo. It listed the names of the targeted neighborhoods as Jabal Badro, Tariq al-Bab and Ard al-Hamra. The fourth strike documented by the group was in Tel Rifat, north of Aleppo.

The Campaign(s)
* Syria Denies: Daily Star, Feb.25
 * The regime "denies the use by Syrian forces of Scud missiles in battles against the armed opposition," Syrian Information Minister Omran al-Zohbi said in an interview with Arabic-language Russia Today.


 * Washington Post, Feb. 26: "Ballistic missile strikes on Aleppo signal new escalation in Syria war"
 * Landing minutes and about a mile apart in two densely populated neighborhoods, they left scenes of devastation more closely resembling those of an earthquake, with homes pulverized beyond recognition, people torn to shreds in an instant and what had once been thriving communities reduced to mountains of rubble.
 * And isn't that exactly what terrorist attacks always do? Someone please help-the rebels got hold os Scuds or equivalent. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:27, 27 February 2013 (UTC)


 * Press TV, Feb. 26: "US Scud missile remarks aim to create new crisis for Syria: MP"
 * And isn't that exactly what false-flag terrorism attacks always do? It's like Bosnia on steroids. F$@*ing sick. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:27, 27 February 2013 (UTC)


 * HRW's report: AP, Feb. 26:
 * "Just when you think things can't get any worse, the Syrian government finds ways to escalate its killing tactics," Solvang said.
 * And there's the laundering. Hey, HRW! Four days this time. How's the investigation of Aqrab coming? Nearly three months now... --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:27, 27 February 2013 (UTC)