Khakovka Dam collapse

Dam background

 * Wikipedia: Khakovka Dam
 * Wikipedia: North Crimean Canal

Event, Immediate aftermath - June 6, 2023

 * Seismic signals recorded from an explosion at the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine - NORSAR, June 7, 2023
 * Data from regional seismic stations show clear signals on Tuesday 6 June at 2:54 local time (01:54 Norwegian time). Time and location (coordinates: 46.7776, 33.37) coincide with reports in the media about the collapse of the Kakhovka dam. The signals indicate that there was an explosion.
 * The magnitude estimate is between 1 and 2.
 * UPDATE: Based on new analysis, we have also observed weak signals from an earlier seismic event from approximately 02:35 (local time in Ukraine) originating from the direction of the Kakhovka Dam.


 * Video: Zoka's channel on Telegram - June 6, 2023

Prior incidents/speculation



 * In southern Ukraine, Russian forces guard strategic dam - AFP, May 23, 2022
 * AFP visited the site of the Kakhovka power station and dam as part of a press tour organised by the Russian army, accompanied at all times by Russian soldiers armed with machine guns.Even though it is located away from the front line that runs further north, Russians vigilantly guard the strategic site that they say has been subject to attempts at "sabotage". "There were attempts to bring in explosive substances, but they were all thwarted," says Vladimir Leontyev, a Russia-appointed head of the civil and military administration of the Kakhovka district.


 * Russians cover their movements using civilian transport at Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant - Pravda.ua, August 6, 2022
 * Fake: Russian Specialists to Modernize Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, Raise Capacity by 30% - StopFake, August 9, 2022
 * TASS, RT, Rambler, Nikolayevsky Vestnik, Kherson News all carried stories promising a 30% increase in power capacity after Russian specialists finish their “modernization” of the Kahkhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant.


 * The bridge in the area of Kakhovka Hydro Power Plant is no longer suitable for use – OC “South” - Miltarnyi, August 10, 2022
 * As previously reported, the Defense Forces of Ukraine continue to attack bridges in the area of occupied Kherson. On August 8, they yet again targeted the Antonivskyi bridge and the dam in Nova Kakhovka.


 * Ukrainian forces struck bridge over dam in Nova Kakhovka - Ukrinform, August 12, 2022
 * Ukraine says it has taken out vital bridge in occupied Kherson - BBC News, August 13, 2022
 * The destruction of the road bridge of the Nova Kakhovka dam was ensured, with the result that it was taken out of operation," the Ukrainian army's Operational Command South posted to Facebook.


 * Ukrainian forces keep shelling Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant — official - Tass, September 3, 2022
 * MLRS Himars fired a record number of missiles at Novaya Kakhovka overnight - Avia.pro, September 6, 2022
 * The invaders are trying to rebuild the crossing at the Kakhovka Dam - Militarnyi, September 19, 2023
 * Factbox-Is the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine About to Be Blown? - Reuters, October 21, 2022
 * People endure daily shelling in Nova Kakhovka - Reuters Videos, October 31, 2022
 * Ukraine's Russian-held Nova Kakhovka dam damaged in shelling, Russian media report - Reuters, November 6, 2022
 * Explainer: Could Ukraine’s Kakhovka Dam Be Destroyed in Russia’s Kherson Retreat? - James Beardsworth, Moscow Times, November 10, 2022 (Updated Nov, 30)
 * New damage to major dam near Kherson after Russian retreat - Maxar satellite - Reuters, November 11, 2022
 * Antonivka Bridge blown up, Russian troops lose foothold on right bank of Dnipro and brace themselves for defense, says war expert - The Insider, November 11, 2022
 * @EUFreeCitizen - RV journalists confirmed the blowing up of the bridge across the #Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station... November 12, 2022


 * Inside the Ukrainian counteroffensive that shocked Putin and reshaped the war - Isabelle Khurshudyan, Paul Sonne, Serhiy Morgunov and Kamila Hrabchuk, The Washington Post, December 29, 2022
 * Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages. The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort. He held off.


 * Russia is draining a massive Ukrainian reservoir, endangering a nuclear plant - Geoff Brumfiel, Connie Hanzhang Jin, Jacob Fenton, Meredith Rizzo, Julian Hayda, NPR, February 10, 2023

(Pro)Ukrainian accusations

 * Nova Kakhovka residents heard explosions before flooding of Kakhovka HPP: Here’s what we know about the destruction of the dam on the Dnipro - The Insider, June 6, 2023
 * Norwegian scientists say Kakhovka dam detonated from within, Russia hampers Kherson evacuation. What happened on the front line on June 8? - The Insider, June 9, 2023

Russian accusations

 * Kakhovka HPP continues to collapse, water is discharged uncontrollably — mayor - Tass, June 6, 2023
 * Ukrainian forces shelled the Kakhovka HPP in the early morning hours on Tuesday, presumably using missiles fired from an Olkha multiple launch rocket system (MLRS). Slide gate valves on the plant’s dam collapsed as a result of the shelling, triggering an uncontrolled discharge of water.


 * About the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric station ( Chronology ) - Russian Foreign Ministry, June 10, 2023
 * Automatic Translation:
 * For the first time, information on mining by Ukrainian military dams and hydraulic structures of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric station appeared on September 15, 2014. Voenkor.Info agency reports indicated that the sappers of the Armed Forces began installing engineering ammunition at the indicated facilities in order to avoid taking them under control of « separatists » New Russia. Kakhovskaya hydroelectric station came under control of the Russian military on the first day of the SVO – February 24, 2022. No fighting was carried out in the dam area. When retreating, Ukrainian sappers mined only the lock mechanisms of the North Krym Canal. The explosion was prevented...
 * In total, over the summer-autumn of 2022, more than three hundred missiles were fired from the RSE « HIMARS »...
 * On March 14, 2023, the head of the Novokakhovsky district, Vladimir Leontyev, said that the hydroelectric station was not only achieved to regular shelling, but also the DRG of the Armed Forces regularly tried to penetrate its territory and dam. According to him, snipers are also actively working, which do not allow repair and maintenance work at hydraulic structures.
 * Such methodological attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the hydroelectric station led to the destruction of its structures that began on June 6, 2023 and the uncontrolled discharge of water from the Kakhov reservoir downstream of the Dnieper.


 * Knew About Kiev's Plan to Attack Kakhovka Dam, Refused to 'Stop It' - Russian Diplomat - Sputnik, June 15, 2023

Possible causes



 * Satellite images show the Kakhovka dam was already partially damaged days before it collapsed - Matthew Loh, Business Insider, June 7, 2023
 * The BBC published two images of the roadway that show the bridge's deteriorating condition between Thursday and Friday. The image from Friday, obtained by the BBC, shows a section of roadway missing from the bridge — damage that was not present on Thursday. 


 * Ukraine dam: What we know about Nova Kakhovka incident - BBC News, June 8, 2023
 * Industry specialists assess damage on Ukraine’s breached Nova Kakhovka dam - ROB HAKIMIAN, New Civil Engineer, 08 JUN, 2023
 * Investigating the source of the damag e further, Barr added: “The water level was at a record high before the breach, but usually a failure caused by overtopping in a dam like this would initiate on the earthen embankments and not on the reinforced concrete spillway, which is designed to manage regular discharges of water. If the sluice gates had been damaged leading to an uncontrolled discharge of water, this wouldn't be expected to cause the progressive collapse of the main concrete structure without significant additional damage elsewhere.” These factors have led Barr to support the claims that the failure was initiated by an explosion, though the subsequent damage is likely to have removed the evidence.

Storm Shadow Missiles

 * Did Russia Destroy The Nova Kakhova Dam? - Moon of Alabama, June 13, 2023

Analysis

 * Nova Kakhova Dam Breach - Updated (12:15 UTC) - Moon of Alabama, June 6, 2023
 * OVERVIEW OF ATTACK ON KAKHOVKA DAM: CUI BONO? - SouthFront, June 6, 2023
 * Russo-Ukrainian War: Dam! A different kind of leak - Big Serge, June 7, 2023
 * Postmortem Analysis on Kakhovka Dam Breach - Simplicius The Thinker, June 7, 2023
 * What Caused the Collapse of the Nova Kakhovka Dam? - Monitor on Massacre Marketing, Adam Larson, July 13, 2023