Talk:Alleged Chemical Attack, August 21, 2013

Planted bodies?
Can you name the 10 reasons why I believe these bodies are planted? Do your own analysis, I do not want to (mis)guide you.
 * Entire Family Killed by Chemical Weapons attack on Damascus – ANAChannelEng, Aug 24, 2013
 * Video Description: Video portrays an a building inspection in which a number of families are found dead 36 hours after a chemical weapons attack which took place on Damascus suburbs on the 21st of August 2013 early morning time (presumed at 2:00am)
 * This video was taken in the Zamalka area of the Eastern Ghouta of Damascus suburbs.

The link comes from Matthew Asheville's blog Syria Analysis: Yeah, the "chemical attack" story may turn out to be bogus, but somehow you must still be able to blame "Assad". -- Petri Krohn (talk) 08:29, 27 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Entire Family allegedly killed by chemical attack suffered injuries consistent with death by thermobaric weapon (Eastern Ghouta) – "9 hours ago" (August 27, 2013)
 * Thermobaric weapons make you bleed out of your head as if shot in the head? That's kind of what it looked like, shot - there - and decaying. Pretty awful. Saved a copy. Too tired to read the explanation, or make any guesses, now. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:30, 27 August 2013 (UTC)

Skeptical Sources

 * Penny for Your Thoughts (truth exists; only lies are invented): "Chemical attack" conveniently staged and timed in Syria. Planned Staged Psy-op.--Caustic Logic (talk) 09:57, 22 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Hot Air.com: Syrian rebels claim Assad used chemical weapons, over 1000 dead - but skepticism is still allowed. Some reasonable starter questions here. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:34, 21 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Images of Death in Syria, but No Proof of Chemical Attack, NYT, August 21, 2013. This is a much more level-headed article than I would have expected from the NYT so credit where credit is due and I put it here under "skeptical sources". Also a good summary. Interesting detail:
 * At least one photograph posted on Facebook by an activist showed what looked like a makeshift rocket. But loyalist militias and Hezbollah have both fired makeshift rockets at rebel positions in this war, and could presumably be suspects for any attacks with improvised rockets on rebel-controlled neighborhoods.
 * --CE (talk) 13:54, 22 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Expert casts doubt on Syria chemical weapons footage – Euronews, 21 August, 2013 (video)
 * The evidence of chemical attack seems compelling – but remember - there’s a propaganda war on – Patrick Cockburn / The Independent, 21 August 2013
 * Syria: Chemical Attack in Ghouta 'an Accident Caused by Free Syrian Army' – GIANLUCA MEZZOFIORE / International Business Times, August 21, 2013
 * He added that the idea that the FSA is single and unified is "a myth," because "there are different factions and something like that could be a win/win for them: launch the attack and raise amount of profile of their cause by the UN."

"Rebels did it"
Obama seems to be accusing al Qaeda for the attack:
 * Syrian Activist on Ghouta Attack: "I Haven’t Seen Such Death in My Whole Life" – DemocracyNow!, August 23, 2013
 * P.S. – Why did the New York Times chose to publish this today? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 16:42, 23 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Syria’s Al-Ghouta Crime: The Real Story of Liwaa al-Islam Chemical Rockets – Islamic Invitation Turkey, 23 August 2013 (Evidently translated from Arabic, no source given.)
 * Why were the Europeans and Americans hesitant to take an action against Syria in the United Nations Security Council, in the alleged Syrian use of chemical weapons in Ghouta? Arab sources suggest that the US and Western missions had received the real story of chemical weapons. The story wasn’t officially distributed, but it is supported by Russian documents and satellite images of the battlefield, and Ghouta.
 * The images showed that the rockets were launched from Duma at 1:35 on Wednesday.

Facebook pages

 * مجزرة الكيماوي Chemical Massacre Syria – 4,205 likes
 * Chemical Massacre in Syria - Massacre Chimique en Syrie – 3,141 likes
 * AQ PRESS (Al Queda Press Office) – 280 likes (This is not really related, but I will save the link here, as liking it on Facebook may not be a good idea. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 21:04, 22 August 2013 (UTC))

Victims

 * Syria: Thousands suffering neurotoxic symptoms treated in hospitals supported by MSF – Médecins Sans Frontières, 24 August 2013
 * Three hospitals in Syria's Damascus governorate that are supported by the international medical humanitarian organisation Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) have reported to MSF that they received approximately 3,600 patients displaying neurotoxic symptoms in less than three hours on the morning of Wednesday, August 21, 2013. Of those patients, 355 reportedly died.
 * “Medical staff working in these facilities provided detailed information to MSF doctors regarding large numbers of patients arriving with symptoms including convulsions, excess saliva, pinpoint pupils, blurred vision and respiratory distress,” said Dr Bart Janssens, MSF director of operations.
 * Patients were treated using MSF-supplied atropine, a drug used to treat neurotoxic symptoms. MSF is now trying to replenish the facilities’ empty stocks and provide additional medical supplies and guidance.
 * “MSF can neither scientifically confirm the cause of these symptoms nor establish who is responsible for the attack,” said Dr Janssens. “However, the reported symptoms of the patients, in addition to the epidemiological pattern of the events—characterised by the massive influx of patients in a short period of time, the origin of the patients, and the contamination of medical and first aid workers—strongly indicate mass exposure to a neurotoxic agent. This would constitute a violation of international humanitarian law, which absolutely prohibits the use of chemical and biological weapons.”

If 355 died at the hospital, it is conceivable there are another 1000 dead at the attack sites. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 19:58, 24 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Sounds compelling, but ... how do you get that many exposed, really? They have no people of their own -"reported symptoms," like the rest of us are getting - rebel doctor reports. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:55, 25 August 2013 (UTC)

2011

 * "Military Intervention In Syria", US Training "Rebels" Since 2011 And The Complete Grand Plan - The March 2012 Leak – Stratfor via Wikileaks
 * They dont believe air intervention would happen unless there was enough media attention on a massacre, like the Ghadafi move against Benghazi.

"Assad did it"
Interesting read, but the article does not contain a single verified fact. I prime example of how to construct "truth" from assorted half-truths and heresy. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 07:48, 26 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Syrian chemical attack spurs finger-pointing inside Assad regime – Phil Sands / The National, Aug 26, 2013


 * Giftgasmassaker in Syrien: Merkel fordert Zugang für UN-Inspekteure
 * Der Giftgaseinsatz in Syrien mit mehr als 1300 Toten sorgt weltweit für Entsetzen – auch weil viele Kinder unter den Opfern sein sollen. Der israelische Geheimdienst macht Präsident Assad für das Massaker verantwortlich. Kanzlerin Merkel drängt im FOCUS-Interview auf eine rasche Aufklärung. Doch nichts geht ohne Moskau und Peking.


 * Israeli intelligence ties Syrian gas attack to Assad – Focus Online, 24.08.2013
 * Israeli intelligence can tie the recent gas attack against the Syrian rebels to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the German publication Focus reports.
 * “According to the findings of Israeli intelligence community, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is responsible for the gas attack in Damascus,” reports the publication.
 * According to FOCUS, the Israel Defense Forces Unit 8200, the IDF’s signals intelligence unit, intercepted communications of the Syrian army during the attack.


 * German Report That Israel’s NSA Affirms Syria Government Responsibility for Chemical Attacks – RICHARD SILVERSTEIN, August 26, 2013
 * The German weekly, Focus, is reporting that a “former Mossad officer” tells them that IDF Unit 8200 (Israel’s NSA) has intercepted Syrian government communications that confirms Assad’s responsibility for the recent chemical gas attack on a Damascus suburb that left more than 1,000 civilians, including many children, dead.

Not sarin?
Médecins Sans Frontières claims that the cause of death is nerve agents. (See Victims above.) Others disagree.
 * If it isn’t Sarin, what is it? (dead link) – Background paper by Dan Kaszeta, 23 August 2013
 * Revision August 26: PDF
 * The number of people affected indicates to me that whatever toxic substance was used, a large volume of material is needed. Whatever this was, there was a lot of it.
 * There is still no firm, conclusive evidence as to what the exact method of dissemination was responsible for dispersal of the mystery toxic substance. Was it rockets, missile warheads, artillery shells, mortar shells, a chemical tanker, aerial spray, aerial bomb, or some other means? Was it a mysterious wall of gas that drifted into the area?

The Jobar Medical Point doctor explains that people died because they sought sheller in cellars. (Was this because of simultaneous shelling?) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:35, 24 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Creepy. He might be looking at real symptoms and offering an explanation that fits. What fired-outside rocket pours enough gas to seep into enough cellars to kill 1,000 or even 500, unless they were all crammed in a few well-placed cellars near the impact? I'm remembering the basement "shelters" people were massacred in in Daraya, vs. the basement shelters rebels had forced people into to protect them from shelling or massacres (see here). See especially the last paragraph I just added. If there's sex segregation in the dead, ask why. If they were split up before death, get a chill. --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:29, 25 August 2013 (UTC)

More to the point, "What is the chemical agent?" I don't know. But a heavy gas creeping low, sinking into basements and trenches, sounds like chlorine as WWI saw it, for one possibility. If this description is even acurate. He says the gas is heavy, he might know his gasses. As noted around, it doesn't seem to be a persistent chemical like sarin, properly deployed in a pro manner; as with Khan al-Assal, first responders aren't protected and suffer no ill effects. Maybe different chemicals were used in different areas under different conditions, so no one answer will cover it. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:32, 25 August 2013 (UTC)

Studying symptoms would help, as long as non-fake videos are looked at. This one seems completely real to me and fairly distressing (I've only watched a handful of videos so far). And FWIW, it seems to be a family together, not split up like prisoners. At least in this case. Not clear where this is. They say there's myosis, sarin-type pupil constriction. That's not in this video, but must be around. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:32, 25 August 2013 (UTC)

PDF: If it isn’t Sarin, what is it? Dan Kaszeta, Aug. 23 Revision August 26:
 * Many of the principal indicators of nerve agent poisoning are not widespread or are present in confusing manners:
 * a. Some victims appear to have miosis (pinpointed pupils), but some of them are clearly having a bright light shined in their eyes. Some of the supposed examples are not pronounced.

Etc... --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:55, 25 August 2013 (UTC)


 * The link above is dead. Kaszeta published a revised version of the PDF today, which is here. --CE (talk) 17:02, 26 August 2013 (UTC)

FSA: Sarin, Ammonia, and "SC3"
One thing it probably wasn't is what an FSA spokesman said they believed it was. A Reuters report said:
 * “Not all of the missiles appeared to have carried chemical warheads, the FSA spokesman said, but those that did were suspected to have contained sarin, a Russian made nerve agent called SC3 and liquid ammonia supplied by Iran.” 

This chemical cocktail is geopolitically useful, implicating three bad guy nations in this attack on Sunni freedom activists. Likely Hexbollah provided the launchers or some other crucial element. But CRBN expert Dan Kaszeta (report, see above for latest version) finds the claim "suspect" and even "nonsensical" and "perverse." (see pp. 6-7) The deadly agent, carefully acquired and loaded, would be rendered inert by ammonia, he says; "Liquid ammonia will inactivate Sarin within seconds or minutes depending on the concentration." This combination would then be about as effective as putting neither chemical in. But then, you can't say the nothing was partly supplied by Iran, and this is a more sinister explanation for why the sarin won't show up in tests; "it was there to start with - they did this to hide it." As for the Russian chemical SC3, Kaszeta never heard of it. It could be a mistranslation, or someone else's name, but the Russians wouldn't call it SC3, he says, as C and S are the same letter in their alphabet. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:29, 27 August 2013 (UTC)

Thermobaric weapon?
This disciple of Brown Moses speculates that the weapon used is a thermobaric weapon. I too have speculated that Moses' mystery rocket is thermobaric. I am also not convinced it the rockets have anything to do with the alleged attack. One thing I am certain about: this piece is bollocks. Thermobaric weapons have nothing to do with hundreds of dead and dying children suddenly appearing outside MSF / FSA run hospitals, seemingly out of nowhere. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 03:29, 27 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Evidence at least part of Aug. 21st munitions were fuel air explosives, not chemical warfare munitions – Matthew Asheville, "4 days ago"

Rebel CW Factory Busted?

 * Islamic Invitation Turkey: Syrian rebels’ Damascus chemical cache found by Syrian Army
 * The Syrian army has discovered a storehouse belonging to rebels in the Damascus area of Jobar, where toxic chemical substances – including chlorine – have been produced and kept, State TV reported. Military sources reported that the militants “were preparing to fire mortars in the suburbs of the capital and were going to pack missiles with chemical warheads.” A video shot by RT’s sister channel Russia Al Youm shows an old, partly ruined building which was set up as a laboratory. After entering the building, Syrian Army officers found scores of canisters and bags laid on the floor and tables. According to a warning sign on the bags, the “corrosive” substance was made in Saudi Arabia

Original source:
 * Toxic Catch: Syria rebels' chemical lab uncovered near Damascus – RT, Jul 14, 2013


 * They made it sound like a new story. It did sound familiar, but I didn't know that catch well enough to recognize it. So, less relevant, but a point for overall intent and a bit of de-bunking a sort-of false story. By the way I think my glitch is solved (the damn router), with some hours to spare before I crash. Will FINALLY see what I can do here.


 * Islamic Invitation Turkey is mainly recycled crap.
 * P.S. – I did not recognize the story or the photo either. It was Google Image Search again that saved the day. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 11:30, 24 August 2013 (UTC)

Jobar Attack or Not?

 * Possibly relevant: wasn't Jobar almost the only suburb not reported as effected yesterday? Anyway, no proof this is "the" cache responsible for anything in particular, but a cache, suggesting intent, and intent some of them have allegedly been talking about, practicing for, and implementing lately. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:59, 23 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Jobar wasn't prominently mentioned in the later news, but the very early reddit thread interestingly enough linked (exclusively) to two distinct wikimapia places in Jobar, see what I wrote a bit below under "Videos" about the different locations. --CE (talk) 11:59, 24 August 2013 (UTC)
 * ANNA News has been in Jobar on the day starting at 7:20 AM, filming the army offensive. In their video report which was now translated into German they state about the CW campaign in the media that "in the first hours, if out of stupidity or desperation, Jobar gets named as the area where the chemicals have been used". And the translator links to this video statement. Remarkably, all the maps created later don't mark Jobar as a target, and if one compares what's shown in the video (battlefield reduced to ruins), that's certainly not where the "doctor" is talking from. --CE (talk) 22:32, 24 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Following the usual chain, syrianews.cc has translated the German translation into English and the ANNA report has English subtitles now. --CE (talk) 13:42, 25 August 2013 (UTC)
 * The video: A statement from Jobar's Medical Point regarding the chemical attack "The front of Ain Tarma and Jobar in Eastern Ghouta was bombarded with chemical weapons. We noted the incident early, thankfully. We put ourselves on the highest alert." Mentions (rebel) "medical point" responses (since you can't trust regular Syrian medical staff to properly handle a "regime attack") -Zamalka, Douma, and Deir al-Asafir are mentioned. The casualties in Jobar were "massive." "We exhausted our supplies of atropine and hydrocortisone in Jobar." The 25,000 ampules were from there, all used up, he says on people there and I guess in Ain Tarma. He's been counting a lot that morning, thousands of different items already used up, and the sun's still not up (or is this from later on the 21st, or a dark basement?). He's very matter of fact, but clearly agitated, I guess, from how he sort of moves around and makes excited big eyes on a regular basis. --Caustic Logic (talk) 02:38, 25 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Video too long. Watching more now, at about 3:45, as he explains the mistakes people made putting themselves in basements, also some people started fires, I guess to keep warm in the August chill, leading to "undesired consequences." Especially so, those people who burned tires, mixing the gas fumes with "fires and burning tires," "putting tires on fire added insult to injury," especially for his responders, some of who died from all this, leading him to sob. He suggests an education campaign to tell people go upstairs and don'tburn tires when there's a gas attack.

This is fascinating. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think it's a clue. I added Jobar, note, and link, to the front page intro. Jobar was attacked, no it wasn't, don't mention that place. Oops. --Caustic Logic (talk) 02:18, 25 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Jobar on Wikimapia, for reference. I wasn't certain. Northeast Damascus, next to and just more central than the (alleged) stricken areas of east Ghouta. Too far to have easily hit Mouadamiya, if that even happened. --Caustic Logic (talk) 02:26, 25 August 2013 (UTC)

Rebel CW Tunnels Found?
Rinse and repeat, or something new?
 * Syrian soldiers find chemical agents in rebel tunnels near Damascus- state TV, August 24. The photo is from July 14. The story again cites Jobar. It says:
 * Syrian army soldiers have found chemical agents when they entered rebel tunnels in Damascus suburb of Jobar, Syrian TV reports, adding that some of them started suffocating. Soldiers "entered the terrorists’ tunnels and saw chemical agents," state television quoted a "news source" as saying. "In some cases, soldiers started suffocating while entering Jobar," it said. "Ambulances came to rescue the people who were suffocating," it added. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:31, 24 August 2013 (UTC)
 * This is new, also reported by Al-Akhbar based on a Reuters item. --CE (talk) 12:03, 24 August 2013 (UTC)

Did not take long to find this. Went to Google news search, it was the top story.Syrian soldiers see chemical agents in rebel tunnels: state TV. Next, the State TV report which should have images. Relation to recent events will remain uncertain, but worth knowing, obviously. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:43, 24 August 2013 (UTC)


 * The relation to recent events is indirect: both are related to the SAA operation to retake the Eastern Ghouta. If Syria had some information that the rockets were launched from Jobar they might concentrate their operations there, in order to secure the launch site and possibly recover some of the hardware. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 18:47, 24 August 2013 (UTC)

The footage from the "chemical warehouse" comes from ANNA News. The original HD footage is here. I cannot see any proof for anything here. Yes, they have gas masks and atropine ampules, but that implicates Assad as much as anyone else. ("They knew Assad would gas them.") The pro-rebel doctor says he had 25,000 ampules of atropine he distributed. The chemicals could as well be used for producing explosives – or rocket fuel. The only thing I find sinister in the video is the steel cylinder in the very end, that seems to have distinctive nozzles of a Qassam rocket drilled into its boilerplate end. (Also seen at the end of this video. Earlier models had real nozzles, but late models economized and simply drilled the nozzles into a thick block of steel.) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 00:44, 25 August 2013 (UTC)


 * "In addition to 1,600 vials of atropine supplied over recent months, MSF has now dispatched 7,000 additional vials to facilities in the area." - You linked that earlier at medicins sans frontiers. The number of 25+ thousand seems to be far too high to be realistic. On the other hand, a new RIA Novosti item I can't find at the English version says in German that a large stock of anti-CW medicines was found at Jobar - and it also referrs to the earlier news of "C-weapons stocks" found in the area. --CE (talk) 01:04, 25 August 2013 (UTC)

Weapons non-expert, but what I think we see is several explosives-production elements here, plus chemicals (which?) and gear to prepare protect for exposure on your end. So it's not proof but fairly damning when the government has no motive and no proof, and the rebels have plenty motive and this. 1:44 in the ANNA video -aren't those electrical detonators/blasting caps/whatever? (three prepared) 1:38 (see right), several expendable metal canisters ready to be filled with .... fuel? A propane tank that can be filled with whatever and fired froma "Hell cannon." Grenades, old and white (?) Terrorist workshop, in my opinion, with chemical concerns.--Caustic Logic (talk) 01:44, 25 August 2013 (UTC)


 * "Terrorist workshop"? More like freedom fighter workshop! :-)
 * I agree it is more likely rebels poses protective gear because of their own CW plans than because of a fear of SAA use of CW. This will however prove nothing to the general public, and even less prevent WWIII from starting on Tuesday. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 02:37, 25 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Agreed on the last, meant to say that. It seems to us the rebels, not Syria, have been doing the gassing, so the gear is clearly to protect themselves from themselves and their colleagues. But to most people, it will be seen as at best "not proving anything" or showing their fear of regime gassing.--Caustic Logic (talk) 02:50, 25 August 2013 (UTC)

Breaking News.Sy says 40 soldiers were left gasping in Jobar when a chemical rocket was fired at them. Possibly the same story, two versions. Also they say a Russian news crew arriving there was shot at, no injuries.--Caustic Logic (talk) 07:47, 25 August 2013 (UTC)
 * SANA report with nice clear photos. --Caustic Logic (talk) 07:47, 25 August 2013 (UTC)

Videos
My YouTube playlist: Brown Moses has a list with 120 videos. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 18:43, 21 August 2013 (UTC)
 * http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL5WYCTqm6QUFEgCRhTevaLEr2inzR7jZM
 * http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLPC0Udeof3T4NORTjYmPoNCHn2vCByvYG

The earliest original videos seem to be coming from the Kvrbtna Coordinating Committee (تنسيقية كفربطنا): I have no idea where "Kvrbtna" is, but searching for the word in Arabic only brings up massacre pictures and videos. (The logo on the videos says it is Kafar Batna City.) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 19:41, 21 August 2013 (UTC)
 * http://www.youtube.com/user/syriafredoom/videos
 * Kafar Batna is here on the southern outskirts of Irbin (there's a "Al Fateh Hospital" central in the markation). The two places given by the reddit collection are at least two kilometers north-west of that in Jobar. The mentioned Ain Terma and Zamalka are in between.--CE (talk) 20:25, 21 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Excellent start here, Petri, thanks. No time left today. 120 videos? Will not be watching most of those. More soon. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:49, 21 August 2013 (UTC)


 * The Visual Evidence of a Chemical Attack in Syria Is Overwhelming and Disturbing – Dashiell Bennett / The Atlantic Wire, August 21, 2013
 * The government has officially denied using any such weapons, but the United Nations inspection team that arrived in the country on Sunday (to investigate previous claims of chemical weapon attacks) has been denied access to the site. As a result, the images below are the only evidence we have of the devastation — and there is a lot of evidence.

Amer mosa video
The first video on the Brown Moses list is one that allegedly shows the nighttime launching of the chemical rockets on Eastern Ghouta. When I order my list by publication time, it turns out to be the earliest video on my list. YouTube metadata API says the video was published 2013-08-21T01:09:55.000Z – that is 4 am in Syria. The video is by someone who calls himself amer mosa. He has four videos on his account, all uploaded within the last week. The first is some Islamist chant or prayer. The second shows a rebel group capture a huge cache of 9K38 Igla anti-aircraft missiles. Three hours ago he posted his fourth video, Al Jazeera instruction on how to protect oneself from chemical weapons. The videos suggest he is a Islamist fighter, possibly a foreigner who recently arrived through Daraa.
 * ‫لحظة اطلاق الصواريخ‬ المحملة بلرؤؤس الكمياوية على الغوطة الشرقية حسبي الله ونعم الوكيل فيك يا بشار (The moment of firing rockets charged chemical Ppleras on East Gouta God and yes you, O Bashar agent)
 * Note the typo in the word chemical (الكمياوية) in the title, on Google it show all copies.
 * اليكم الدليل إغتنام صواريخ حرارية مضادة للطيران من اللواء 38 في درعا يتسأل الشهيد الذي قصفه الطيران (Directory you seize the anti-thermal rockets from General Aviation 38 in Daraa Atsal the martyr who bombed Aviation)

The video of the nighttime launching of the rocket suggests that he (or who ever made the video) was part of the rebel group firing the rocket. I cannot quite understand the title, but I guess it says they are firing chemical weapons at Assad's agents. The timing of the video is also of interest. The video was uploaded before the news of the attack broke out. How could he have known that the rocket pictured was carrying a chemical warhead, unless he was part of the team? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 02:19, 22 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Spooky pattern, cool find. I'll say hypothetically, they happened to be near enough and panned in to film a firing by the regime at midnight, drive to the attacked area, learn of the chemical gas, and knowing that, upload this so titled at 4 a.m. But I doubt all of that. I'm not sure on the title admitting to firing the missile, a good translation would be needed. I can say firing chemical missile, God, Assad agents are all mentioned. Did you save a copy? Spooky pattern-leaving travelers sometimes pull stuff back down. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:00, 22 August 2013 (UTC)

Nighttime hospital scene
First video starts from the outside, moves inside. Note the green water bottles used for pouring water on victims. These could help identify later inside footage. The first four videos are unlabeled: (1, 2, 3, 4) A strap is hanging from the camera, helping to identify the cameraman. Starting from video 5 the uploads get a Coordinating Committee style logo, but are from the same set of footage: (5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10) One more unlabeled video (11) seems to be from the same place, this one shows fighting age men in and around an operating room. One has a needle stuck to his neck, I suppose for injection of atropine. (See Nerve agent antidotes) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 11:31, 22 August 2013 (UTC)

Context
The second and first videos in the Kafar Batna video set may be the only ones giving these events any context. They show civilians outside the hospital screaming and panicking. Some of them are wearing protection against gas. (The scarfs would be effective against tear gas but not nerve agents.)

The latest video from Kafar Batna is an interview of a very young boy: Child injured with poison gas and killed his father and lost his mother tells what happened on August 21. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 13:08, 22 August 2013 (UTC)

Dead girls in morgue
This unlabeled video, (number 4 in the above nighttime series) show the beginning of the pileup in the morgue. Note the distinctive blanket that is shown at the end of the video. It is also shown in the debunk video discussed below with more young girls piled up on top of it. The scene is a windowless underground room.
 * Same blanket, or same design, seen in Damascus suburbs. Possible clue, not strong. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:05, 25 August 2013 (UTC)

The same girls, and the corner of the blanket are later shown at daytime, in a large well-lit room with some one hundred other bodies lined up. The video is also uploaded by Kafr Batna Coordinating Committee, this time with their Kafar Batna City logo:
 * أكثر من مئة شهيد من الذين اسعفو لكفربطنا فقط جراء القصف الكيماوي21\8 (More than a hundred martyrs who Asafo for Kafr Batna only by chemical bombardment August 21)
 * Note the typo in the word (اسعفو = Asafo), should most likely be (اسعفوا = Asafoa?)
 * If not a verb but a place, probably Deir al-Asafir, which is nearby. Interesting video. Note how at around 0:20-25 you see at least two men bleeding from the head executed from this chemical bombing. I do suspect prominent use of chemicals, but I think there's a little more mixing of methods here than they're letting on. The beefier ones who pull through, wake up and start choking you as you drag them to the truck -shoot that one, mix him in anyway.And the children... man. Looking at them, it seems they tend to be open-mouthed, heads back, trying to breathe. No slime/foam or discoloration. Could have been suffocated in an airtight chamber somewhere then brought here. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:05, 25 August 2013 (UTC)

This comment video on Facebook notes that many bodies in the morgue scene have syringes placed on them. The hospital staff seem to be injecting them with something, most like atropine. It may be that all the bodies are not dead yet.
 * Qatar-provided experimental serum to cure Muslims of Shi'ism? Sorry, couldn't help it popping to mind. I would not be totally shocked, but I guess that would only work on the living - which they almost must be, right? --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:05, 25 August 2013 (UTC)

In the first video in the Kafar Batna set the victims are brought in into the same room that is later used as the morgue in the daylight scene. (Note the bombed-out windows.) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 12:45, 22 August 2013 (UTC)

On site video
By now we should see video of bodies in situ where they have died. Also we should see video of the attack sites; empty houses where people left in panic. All we see is bodies at the morgue. This leaves open the possibility that the victims where al-Nusra hostages, killed with teargas in some confined space, and brought to the morgue to die. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 19:52, 22 August 2013 (UTC)

I haven't noticed any yet that seem to be from the crime scenes. Like video silence almost. Well, Ihaven't watched enough to say, but you're ahead and there seem to be few if any? That is suspicious. Various things can be said about the victims, the killers, and their methods, from seeing the types of homes they were killed, where and how, etc. As I mention above (maybe could move here), there are some clues I half-expect to see that the victims were herded into rebel run prison houses (for their protection) prior to dying there. I took it to the SOHR Facebook page, first linking to the ANNA CW cache video, then "The reports that many died in their basements is fishy too. Rebels often put their captives in basements before some die there (ex: Daraya massacre). Best way to get masses gassed is to control them and gas all these basements directly. The big clue is gender separation. Any videos of the bodies as found? If the women and men are split up, they did not hide themselves there." And then a follow-up "Any videos of the bodies as found?" And if not, why not? I'm only seeing bodies at the morgue so far, or in trucks arriving out of what seems like a cloud of video silence that leaves me wondering." --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:18, 25 August 2013 (UTC)

Locations
Via M of O: ''The reported neighborhoods of this reported chemical attack in the Damascus Al-Ghouta area are: Hammuriyah, Irbin, Saqba, Kafr Batna, Mudamiyah, Harasta, Zamalka and Ain Terma. Those are rebel-held areas and have been all this year.''

Looking at the two maps it seems the numbers listed are Hammuriyah: 300, Irbin: 64+17+16+30, Saqba: ?, Kafr Batna: 150, Mudamiyah: ?, Harasta: ?, Zamalka: 400 and Ain Terma: 75. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:58, 22 August 2013 (UTC)



Weather
Weather in Damascus on August 21st: steady wind from the west. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 04:28, 25 August 2013 (UTC)

Mystery rockets

 * Are These The Munitions Used In Today's Alleged Chemical Weapon Attack? – Brown Moses, 21 August 2013
 * Large numbers of victims have been reported, and the following pictures have been posted online claiming to show two of the munitions used in the attack. What's extremely interesting about these devices is they match with devices previously recorded in the conflict, reportedly launched by government forces, with it's first appearance in Daraya, south-west Damascus on January 4th.
 * That is a strange-looking device. Note he says "it seems likely these munitions have been manufactured inside Syria," which I guess both sides are capable of, and of course "local activists certainly seem to think they are related," and I would give them some credit for knowing the different parts of their psyop. But why such an odd part when it's been rebels building bizarre new weapons mainly? Why not use any of the stuff they've stolen that Syria technically still owns? Did Syria steal a multinational forces improv weapon and false-flag them with it? Specifics will help narrow down the possibilities. I plan to catch up a bit within the next few days. I also plan to pop in at this link for some comments. I've been well-received there. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:57, 22 August 2013 (UTC)

Rocket impact site
I am trying to find the location of these two videos (+ one more). It would help to establish the trajectory of Brown Moses' mystery rocket. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 00:19, 24 August 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm having a look. Seems semi-distinct and possible enough to narrow it down, maybe to one, but not guaranteed or easy. Can we even say what directions/time of day? I can only say either a bit before or a bit after mid-day? Doesn't help much. I'm comparing stills to some areas of Irbin, or will start in a minute. The furrows in that field, at 0:10 looking down them. If late morning, you're looking kind of north or perhaps northwest. If early afternoon, more like northeast. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:44, 24 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Sorry, I meant 0:10 in the first video. I'm looking again, still not sure, but it seems to me that sun is pretty high, and this will all be a little closer to the middle, north-south orientation of the range, or looking primarily north at 0:10. Maybe? What we need is a good elevation estimate and from that narrowed time/azimuth options. I don't know what to say - greater than 45 degrees, well under 90. Maybe 60 degrees? Petri? --Caustic Logic (talk) 03:19, 25 August 2013 (UTC)
 * I think the flight path is perpendicular to the furrows in that field and the building wall. The building is facing north or southwest depending on whether it is am or pm. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 04:24, 25 August 2013 (UTC)
 * here's a spot to discuss. Not the one, but perhaps that shape and orientation of a field (or flipped on the N-S axis), bounded by buildings on left and right, pretty big, tall one(s) on the right, open space to the north. It's the major road on the south side at least that doesn't fit. Also, note how the (right, damaged) buidling(s) is not continuous, but has a split or recess in the middle. That should appear too. --Caustic Logic (talk) 06:11, 25 August 2013 (UTC)

Brown Moses and team have figured out the impact site in this discussion thread on Google+. The location is not in Irbin, as suggested by the original video upload originating from the Irbin CC, but futher south in Zamalka. As I initially suspected, the building wall is facing due north, meaning that this is also the direction where the rocket came from.
 * Note: the spot is included in the inset image, comparison map: app. strike areas orange, rocket #197 as labeled, identified strike area in the red X. Jobar indicated, with parts that are about north. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:05, 26 August 2013 (UTC)

A thorough analysis of the pictures can be found in this pro-Kurdish blog. The analysis confirms the direction: NORTH. I am still not convinced this is a chemical rocket and even if it is, it has anything to do with the hundreds of deaths. If the damage to the wall of the nearby building is related to a blast from the rocket, then I suspect the mystery rocket is a thermobaric weapon. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 04:41, 26 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Analysis on the origin of CW missile #197 that landed in Ghouta, Syria. – August 25, 2013

P.S. – I had a closer look at the photos. I now think the angle of impact is at a 40 degree angle to the east-west furrows, making the direction from northwest. This would make Jobar and Qaboun possible origins for the rocket. (I do not think it can fly much over 2 km.) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 05:05, 26 August 2013 (UTC)
 * You'd better make it from the northwest, because everyone's saying north=SAA. ;) I had a look at all this. What a weird-looking bend. Are we sure that means it didn't come almost straight down? Somehow that would help explain it, to me. I'm not 100% on the spot chosen, but it is an uncanny fit for the images. Tricky, not even in Irbin and barely in Zamalka.The map shows e-w here is a couple degrees off, towards the west. So right there, 360 is actually 258 or so. Jobar to the northwest is one area that's sort of in the middle of all these, as the Wikipedia graphic shows.--Caustic Logic (talk) 07:02, 26 August 2013 (UTC)
 * There is a mound forming on the side of the crater where the rocket head is buried or where the earth has moved sideways. It is pointing some 30 to 40 degrees east from due south. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 14:29, 26 August 2013 (UTC)

Brown Moses does a thorough visual comparison of the alleged impact site to the video: 100% match.
 * Finding The Exact Location Of An Alleged Chemical Munition, And What It Could Mean – 26 August 2013

Qaboun rocket lauches
Qaboun MediaOffice is publishing videos of rocket launches from some clearing in the residential area of Qaboun. I understand these to rebel rockets. (Overall I doubt if the SAA ever uses rockets for anything. It would only produce random shelling, and we have never seen proof of that. "Assad gangs" seem to be using heavy artillery.)
 * هـااام جدا || القابون - لحظة إطلاق الصواريخ من ثكنة الوحدات الخاصة نحو الغوطة الشرقية 25-8-2013 (Haaam very | | Kaboun - the moment of firing rockets from the special units towards the barracks East Gouta 25/08/2013)
 * The correct translation would be: Qaboun - rockets being fired from the barracks of the Special Forces towards East Gouta 25/08/2013. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 12:59, 26 August 2013 (UTC)
 * The title of the videos refers to the SAA Special Forces HQ located in the middle of Qaboun. The implication is is that the rockets were fired by "regime" forces. Qaboun, including most likely the Special Forces HQ, has however been on rebel / al-Nusra control from June 2013. See Special Forces Headquarters below. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 03:44, 27 August 2013 (UTC)

This looks almost like a smoking gun! Nighttime launch of rebel rockets from Qaboun to East Ghouta. Uploaded on August 22. The daytime videos show rockets being launched towards the west or southwest, thus in the direction of East Ghouta. Now, before even exploring the CW aspect of this, one must ask, why are rebels in Qaboun firing rockets at rebels in East Ghouta? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 08:59, 26 August 2013 (UTC)
 * الصواريخ التي تطلق من الواحدات الخاصة في حي القابون بدمشق باتجاه الغوطة الشرقية (Rockets fired from special units in Kaboun neighborhood in Damascus toward East Gouta)
 * Note the typo in the word "الواحدات". Should be "الخاصة" = unit.

Comparing this video to the Amer mosa video uploaded to YouTube 4 am on August 21st, claiming to show chemical rockets fired at East Ghouta, I think it may show the same launch site, maybe even the same rocket. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 09:07, 26 August 2013 (UTC)

I am trying to locate the launch site. The Markaz Rif Dimashq mosque targeted by SAA fire in this video is here. The launch site is about here. (No, not there, but 100 meters to southwest, in the parking lot here.) I still have not figured out where the camera is located. Could be as far away as the bombed out high-rise tower in the northwest corner of Jobar. The distance from this launch site to the crash site of rocket #197 is 3810 meter in direction 146,25 degrees. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 09:46, 26 August 2013 (UTC)
 * The location match looks good - I keep being ready to try but someone else gets it. Where filmed from, less important, somehwere pretty tall. That's a government-run site normally? I see trucks and stuff. One important problem though: the title translation you got was jumbled. Go word-by-word and it's more like special units barracks firing towards Ghouta. Special alone translates private. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:45, 26 August 2013 (UTC)
 * The large building in the background is the Tishreen Military Hospital. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 16:32, 27 August 2013 (UTC)

More rocket launches from Qaboun: -- Petri Krohn (talk) 09:38, 27 August 2013 (UTC)
 * القابون | لحظة إطلاق صاروخ أرض أرض من الوحدات الخاصة باتجاه الغوطة (Qaboun | Launching surface-to-surface missile from Special Forces base towards Ghouta) – Aug 25, 2013

Special Forces Headquarters
Wikimapia says the launch site is the parking lot of the Headquarters of the special forces (Damascus). This absolutely, without any doubt proves Assad did it!!! (Or then this is all a part of a deliberate, well planned false flag operation.)

Maps published by the pro-Assad blogger Syrian Perspective however show that Special Forces HQ was in FSA / al-Nusra hands on August 16 – or the very least, highly contested. In fact this other Qaboun CC video shows the SAA shelling the area, including mosque, just south of the parking lot with heavy artillery in August 24. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 13:03, 26 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Another video from the 18th talks about Qabon under siege of the army. documents.sy reports fierce clashes on the 16th. On the 21st, SyrPer (is that the same one doing the maps on FB?) brags that Qaboon and those "trapped inside" is about to fall and elaborates:


 * The news is in and its not good the apes of Arabia or their terrorist mercenary rodent kin in Syria. Finally, the Syrian High Command is optimistic about the next 24 hours in both Barza and Al-Qaaboon.  These two abandoned suburbs are falling into the hands of the SAA.  Tunnels underneath the two areas have been discovered and closed down leaving the rats with only surface pathways out.  They are also being closed.  Monzer is in Damascus and tells us that the numbers of dead rodents in these two areas exceed 230 at the present.
 * Doesn't sound like the SAA controlled the city centre while those rockets were fired. --CE (talk) 13:22, 26 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Okay, then. Impressive turn-around. I'll say Qaboon is a good sized area with room for numerous control situations at once, in its sub-areas. Shelling the mosque area could be to protect this base, or to rive people out of an area they control including that and the base. The map is not a good indicator. But being "abandoned," if true, might mean even by the military. Rebels could and would run it all. I'll say it's contested. And to about there, or maybe Jobar, somewhere mostly north but a bit west, seems where the tail of that rocket came from. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:15, 26 August 2013 (UTC)

Who controls Qaboun?
Qaboun and Jobar are important, as the main highways north from Damascus pass between them and Irbeen in East Ghouta. Syria's largest double cloverleaf intersection sits just east of Qaboun. Controlling the area means the rebels could block all traffic north from Damascus. I have often wondered how this effects the strategic situation? Is civilian traffic able to pass on the main motorway? (Update: This July 16 ANNA news footage shows the civilian traffic does in fact flow freely past Qaboun, kind of. :-)

Syrian Perspective's two maps would indicate that Jobar (Jawbar) and Qaboun (al-Qaboon) are the only place rebels have made progress in the summer of 2013. The June 17 map show an attack over the cloverleaf intersection and the August 16 map rebel control (green) in Qaboun. At the current state of the war, most rebel advanced are done by al-Qaeda-linked groups or hard lined Islamists. Regular "FSA" revolutionaries are at best capable of holding rebel-held populated areas. The ANNA report from August 21 described the rebel forces holding Jobar as "elite units" of al-Nusra. I presume the rebel forces in Qaboun have similar allegiances.

The current situation in Qaboun is best described by a comment on Syrian Perspectives August 21 blog post posted by Parviziyi on August 24. (Parviziyi is an Assad supporter and a regular contributor to Moon of Alabama.)


 * parviziyi – August 24, 2013 at 8:18 AM
 * I've largely quit reading this blog. But there's an item above that jogged my memory from when I was reading the blog more regularly, a month ago. Ziad wrote above with date 22 Aug 2013: "We predict the fall of Al-Qaaboon shortly, i.e. withing the next 4 days." On 12 Jul 2013 Ziad wrote: "AL-QAABOON LIBERATED COMPLETELY". On 17 Jul 2013 Ziad wrote: "AL-QAABOON ON THE VERGE OF PURIFICATION".


 * He made similar bald assertions in July and early August about Damascus Jowbar district, Homs Bab Hood district, and (more ridiculously) the entirety of Idlib province. When Ziad writes assertions like that, Ziad truly doesn't know what he's talking about.


 * In the fighting in Al-Qaboon we know that the Syrian army has got bigger and better weaponry and more men on the ground than the rebels have. But the question of whether Al-Qaboon will "fall" is a question of whether all the rebels with decide to withdraw from the area and stay withdrawn from it, and decide to concentrate themselves in another area in Damascus. And Ziad has no information basis whatsoever for answering that question.


 * And if Al-Qaboon "falls" it may mean very little. The Al-Qaboon-Jowbar area a warzone depopulated of all civilians, or almost all. There are a number of other neighborhoods in Damascus that are heavily populated and almost normal today. If you were a rebel in Damascus city and you had your choice between either (a) retaining your fighting presence in the largely empty and desolate Al-Qaboon-Jowbar neighborhood or (b) destroying law and order for hundreds of thousands of civilians in some other Damascus neighborhood, which would you pick? which option would more effectively advance the goal of bringing down government? If it were to turn out that Al-Qaboon does "fall" shortly, it'd no way indicate that Ziad had the slightest intelligence on what he's talking about.

Parviziyi then continues with the topic:
 * From rebels sources it is clear that the rebel fighters that have been in Jobar-Qaboon since early Spring 2013 (and before) are with the Tahreer Al Sham brigade'' and that's same brigade that is fighting there today.

He links to this 22 Aug 2013 post by YallaSouriya, which names another brigade also active in Jobar the day: Abu Thar Al Ghafari FSA brigade.

I am sure a search for Qaboun and Special Forces would produce rebel videos of the launch site, most likely with FSA / al-Qaeda in control. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 06:36, 27 August 2013 (UTC)


 * August 20:
 * أورينت نيوز..الثوار يحررون مبنى الاتصالات في القابون (Orient News .. rebels liberate a telecommunications building in Kaboun) – TelevisionOrient, Aug 20, 2013

I am not really following the details here, yet, but it sounds good, well worth pursuing. I will add a thought. Anyone presented with this theory, and inclined to doubt it for complicating the cool regime-blame thing, will ask this: "If rebels took over the missile base, why wouldn't the government tell us? Especially when it's said the rockets hitting Ghouta came from that base?" It's a good question. I could offer maybe they didn't know (not likely) maybe they're embarrassed (but clearly should get over it), afraid it wouldn't be believed, would sound like a dodge and an admission it was their base that fired it or, maybe, it never was taken over. Or they did tell us, but the fact has been completely obliterated from our telescreens. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:15, 27 August 2013 (UTC)

Facebook celebrations
There has been an odd element in the early reports of SPIEGEL this morning ... "Assad supporters celebrate" was part of the news. In the article(s) (they publish a lot of newly assembled versions of their stuff over the day) they report that "Harasta News Network" published a statement that "On orders of President Assad, may God protect him, and on orders of proud Syrian Alawite Officers, this morning at half past five East Ghouta was attacked with Chemical Weapons and the operation was finished successfully. We are awaiting details of the operation in the next hours". (my translation of what you find in the last paragraph of the German language article). At 10:30 AM (not specified for both if German or Syrian time zones) "the site was taken from the net" (sic) Also, they claim, a facebook page called "Shohdaa.alwatan" claimed that 500 died in a "cleansing operation". A search for "Harasta News Network" only gave a small number of indifferent results, most of them German news articles quoting SPIEGEL. Maybe worth investigating - I don't do facebook. --CE (talk) 00:21, 22 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Clearly, this sounds like a pretty fishy allegation. Someone may have actually even typed that into an actual loyalist site, etc. Just like you can with John Snow's blog. To me, it only shows that someone in the opposition knows they need some supports here, quick. This admittedly doesn't make much sense. Consider this desperate activist explaining it all ((Observers France 24): "I think the regime doesn’t care that the UN inspectors are less than 5 kilometres away. On the contrary, by carrying out these bombings despite the observers’ presence, they’re sending a crystal-clear message to the international community." He doesn't say just what the message is supposed to be, other than that it's so super clear some are mistaking it for an obvious false-flag operation. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:35, 23 August 2013 (UTC)

U.N. Investigator Response
This is an area to watch closely, and maybe worth some discussion and thought. It's thorny stuff. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:17, 23 August 2013 (UTC)

Obviously, the U.N. chemical weapons inspection team had just arrived not two days before this to start a two-week mission. They were based in a Damascus hotel less than 5 km away from one activist who said "I think the regime doesn’t care that the UN inspectors are less than 5 kilometres away. On the contrary, by carrying out these bombings despite the observers’ presence, they’re sending a crystal-clear message to the international community." (exact alleged message unspecified) Similarly, CNN reported this taunt:
 * "The inspectors will not come," said a resident who didn't want his real name used. "If they wanted to come, they would have come a long time ago. The Assad regime determines where the inspectors go, and they will not let them go there. There is already a siege around Eastern Ghouta from the Assad regime." --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:17, 23 August 2013 (UTC)

From a Washington Post report:
 * ''Ake Sellstrom, the Swedish scientist who heads the U.N. inspection team in Syria, told the Swedish media that he had seen only the television images of the alleged attacks. "But the high number of wounded and dead they are speaking about sounds suspicious,” Sellström told Swedish news agency TT, via telephone from Damascus. “It sounds like something one should take a look at.”

And of course, Western powers are demanding exactly that the "inspectors," as activists keep calling them, be allowed to cruise over there and somehow find out if CW were used, but carefully not decide by whom. The pull of events sucking Sellstrom's team into the (rebel-infested false-flag free-fire) zone is immense. They are being played up as heroes - inspirational non-Muslim ones! - who would be immensely mourned if they did show up and see the truth, only to be gassed by "the regime" before they escaped with the truth. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:17, 23 August 2013 (UTC)

That's a possible plot, however likely, that might be part of why Damascus won't let them go. As Fabius said, Assad would be caught "with his hand in the till" and NATO bombing would be the most logical next step. So to avert that, maybe Damascus will have to let them go to ... Arbin to Zamalka, what, 8-9 places? By the time it's done, two weeks will be long passed. Or they will get gassed too on the third stop, and "Assad" will be caught hiding the truth, and thus, same next logical step. Or, Syria promises to let them go, once the surrounding countryside is cleared again, which will take way more than three weeks. In case any witnesses in Khan al-Assal remain alive, no one will come talk to them.--Caustic Logic (talk) 11:17, 23 August 2013 (UTC)

Rebel Orders From Aleppo

 * An "operations room" in Khan Al-Assal has issued a statement demanding that the Investigators first go to Ghouta, or else they won't get access to Khan Al-Assal. The Russians say Syria is ready for "maximum" cooperation. Maybe your first suspicion among the line of "dead investigators are bad for Damascus" was spot on. --CE (talk) 11:24, 23 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Fascinating twist there. They are really being pushed, geographically, to this spot(s), in a palpable way that's ominous. Also, distracting from Aleppo is central, and this helps show that. Statement should continue: "if you go to Gouta first - ALL sites and there are five more we forgot to mention - and get here, alive, we promise to cooperate fully, and that if anyone gasses you here, it will be the regime, not us." --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:19, 23 August 2013 (UTC)

Investigating Ghouta
By the 25th, almost one week into their two-week mandate (possibly will be extended), it was announced the team would go to the sites of the recent attacks.
 * New York, 25 August 2013 - Statement Attributable to the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General on alleged use of chemical weapons in Syria
 * On 24 and 25 August, the High Representative for Disarmament Affairs, Ms. Angela Kane met with senior officials of the Government of the Syrian Arab Republic. The purpose of her visit was to seek cooperation of the Government in facilitating an expeditious investigation of the incident in the Ghouta area on 21 August involving the alleged use of chemical weapons.


 * The Secretary-General has instructed the Mission under Dr. Sellström, currently in Damascus, to focus its attention on ascertaining the facts of the 21 August incident as its highest priority. The Mission is preparing to conduct on-site fact-finding activities, starting tomorrow, Monday, 26 August.


 * The Secretary-General notes the Government of the Syrian Arab Republic affirmed that it will provide the necessary cooperation, including the observance of the cessation of hostilities at the locations related to the incident. ... The Secretary-General would like to reiterate that all relevant parties equally share the responsibility of cooperating in urgently generating a safe environment for the Mission to do its job efficiently and providing all necessary information.

So they drive over there - just where I'll have to see. First thing, unidentified snipers shoot at the lead vehicle several times, forcing them to give up and go back. Clearly the regime trying to stall them, right? No one dead yet. Gassing won't work outside a basement prison, I decided, so shooting or other hard hits will have to do it if they want to have the regime off these guys. Maybe another try tomorrow. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:41, 26 August 2013 (UTC)


 * They should just visit the Special Forces Headquarters parking lot. See who's firing the rockets? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 12:54, 26 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Not safe. That's where the snipers were shooting from. ;) --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:36, 26 August 2013 (UTC)

U.S. Response
The U.S. response is interesting. Citing Los Angeles Times: U.S. dismisses Syria's inspection offer as 'too late':
 * The Obama administration dismissed Syria's offer to allow inspectors access to the site of a suspected chemical weapons attack as having come "too late" and declared there was "very little doubt" the government had used poison gas against civilians...

or in essence, it's too late for facts to disrupt this total certainty. Who knew it had a gestation period less than five days? Now we can never go back, no matter what the facts say. There is and can be no real doubt. Ever, again. Clearly, there is theatrics to the "tioo late" blustering. It makes little to no factual sense, but has an emotional impact, a big threatening shout at an insane pitch, designed to shake Syrians into defection and disarray. Problem is, it's been done incessantly at so many volume levels, even this - loudest yet though it is - they might remain immune.

So is actual full-on conflict on the way? I think the signs say no. Consider:
 * a senior administration official, in a written statement given to reporters on condition of anonymity, brushed aside the Syrian offer...

Is that deniability? Could be, if needed. More hedging even now? Especially now?
 * Despite the assertion of "little doubt," the administration has not presented any evidence of its own that the Syrian government carried out such an attack, instead citing public reports made by others.

They don't have John Kerry holding up a report and a vial of powder at the U.N., claiming the hardest proof ever the regime dunnit. So far it seems more "it's worth another try" at threats, than a real drive to war. I hope I'm right on that. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:52, 27 August 2013 (UTC)

On to the logic of the dismissal: It won't hold up.
 * "If the Syrian government had nothing to hide and wanted to prove to the world that it had not used chemical weapons in this incident, it would have ceased its attacks on the area and granted immediate access to the U.N. — five days ago," the official said. By now, the government has had many opportunities to destroy evidence, including by shelling the areas, the official noted.

Five days of shelling renders a site worthless? Why didn't anyone mention that when they were insisting Syria grant access to a dozen or more sites of alleged attacks dating back sometimes to December? One of those - Homs, Dec. 23 - was on the investigators' itinerary at the moment this major distraction blew up all around them just a few days ago. When was that going to be cancelled for being months too late? The government was still hoping to have Khan al-Assal looked at, five months after they first asked for this investigation. But the U.S. gets all snippy when it takes five days, in the middle of a war zone full of ... problems. Perhaps they're afraid that, after all the bluster about how they'd better get over there, there will be no clues implicating the regime. But they were there a few days ago, everyone's pretty sure, and they're already so convinced that actual gathered facts would just be anti-climactic and a buzzkill. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:52, 27 August 2013 (UTC)

Motives?
Here is my first draft on the motives of the parties to commit the act. The section should be moved to article space after, maybe some minor editing. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 02:26, 24 August 2013 (UTC)

Rebels
While the Western public is eager to believe the "evil tyrant" Assad "gassed his own people" it is equally difficult to believe the "freedom fighting" rebels would have murdered 1800 Syrian civilians. There are however at least four major reasons why the rebels would gain or benefit from the gas attack.

The first round of reporting on the incident has almost exclusively followed the rebel narrative and blamed the "Assad regime" for the attack.
 * 1) Blame Assad

This is no coincident, but follows a carefully rehearsed choreography – from the the al Bayda massacre in Cyrenaica, Libya on February 22, 2011 that triggered UNSC resolution 1970 on Fabruary 26, to the Houla massacre in Taldo Syria. Every time the Western led "international community" has accused "oppressive regimes" when the real culprits have been Islamist revolutionaries.

Ultimately the aim of the aim of the rebels is to get the West to intervene in the war on their side. If that fails, at least it boost their support among the Western audience. At a minimum it will lead to calls for a ceasefire – likely to be to the rebels advantage.


 * 2) Distract UN investigation
 * See U.N. Investigator Response above.

It has always been known, or at least suspected, that al-Qaeda has a WMD program. The purported aim of such a program is to repeat 9/11, conceivably on a much larger scale. The War on Terror was launched precisely to prevent such an attack ever happening.
 * 3) Part of Al-Qaeda WMD program

The ultimate outcome of such a program would be a set of DIY instructions that could be distributed by Inspire magazine and its sister publications. The plans need to be executable with normal garage tools from parts obtainable from any hardware store. The DIY rockets described by Brown Moses would satisfy this requirement.

The Syrian conflict has seen a gradual development of al-Qaeda CW capability, from initial demonstrations with rabits, posted on YouTube, to successful but small scale attacks, like the one in Khan Al-Asssal in March 2013, to confiscation of canisters of sarin from al-Qaeda operatives in Turkey and Syria.

If the numbers of 1600 killed are anywhere near the truth, then one must conclude that a rocket attack like this, fully executed, could kill 50,000 people in a heavily populated Western metropolis (twice the number if done al-Qaeda style as a coordinated double attack), with little immediate risk to the perpetrators. For the WMD deterrence effect – or in this case, the terror effect – to work, the WMD capability has to be demonstrated in vivo.

The al-Qaeda affiliates al-Nusra and ISIS have become dominant in the rebel held territories in the north near the Turkish border, while rebel forces in the south are in much tighter US control. Recent months have seen increased infighting between the rebels, culminating in all-out war between the Kurdish YPG and al-Qaeda in the north. The attack might be an attempt by al-Qaeda to usurp leadership in the south by terrorizing other rebel groups and their supporters into subjugating to al-Qaeda rule.
 * 4) Rebel infighting

They may see it as a divine revenge to the people of Ghouta for failing the revolution and surrendering to Assad, like Hitler's orders to Albert Speer to destroy everything. Besides, in the end it does matter who gets killed, Allah will sort out the righteous from the infidels.

Government
"Governments and armies do stupid things."
 * Stupidity

It never happened?
The government has been sticking to the story "it never happened". (Maybe it did, they just never heard about it.) I would say the evidence is yet inconclusive. There is a huge number of videos, coming from seemingly independent rebel YouTube channels. Most, if not all of the videos are however hospital footage, with nothing that shows the victims or the attack in situ. I do not think the dead people are staged, but for all we know the victims could be (Kurd) hostages gassed to death in some "confined space".

The New York Times reports:
 * While the veracity of the visual evidence uploaded to YouTube could not be independently established, chemical weapons experts told The Times that the injuries seen in footage from the region did not appear to be consistent with the effects of a conventional chemical weapon like sarin or mustard gas and that the deaths might have been caused by the use of a weaker chemical agent in a confined space.

Russia Today says they cannot confirm the attacks happened:
 * ''A correspondent for the Russian TV channel RT Arabic succeeded in contacting local residents in the area of the alleged chemical weapons attack. RT reports, that the locals replied to the correspondent, that they have not witnessed any “poisonous attack” in the area, but that they could hear gunfire.

AINA TV says they were at or near the scene filming with their nine cameras, and saw now sign of the use of chemical weapons: -- Petri Krohn (talk) 01:03, 22 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Documented evidence of the non-use of chemical weapons in Eastern Gouta today

This video tries to debunk a large part of the story (now translated into English): The same group of small children (girls mainly, like the ones we saw in the Baniyas massacre) are filmed in at least three different arrangements. Each piece of footage is then published by a different rebel YouTube channel. (One of them is the Kafr Batna Coordinating Committee) Did they move the bodies around to film them in different parts of the Eastern Ghouta? For all I know these could be Kurd children massacred in Tal-Abyad by ISIS. (See Dead girls in morgue above.) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:29, 22 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Fake massacre by Syrian army using Chemical weapons – Translated by Syrians in Sweden
 * Watched that. I agree with their call. It seems she's been been presented in three spreads that seem to be described as different victims batches in different towns. Three times, one victims. Other matches should be likely if so. And yes, they would be that sloppy and usually are. But in one room, we see what looks like about two dozen young girls. As a baseline indicator, this has to be big. I'd estimate 30 boys, 20 women, 30 men, another just-triple-digits on-the-fringes "Shabiha" massacre of certain families is a lot what it looks like, but with no visible wounds. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:25, 22 August 2013 (UTC)
 * The debunk is debunked here: The Ghouta Chemical Attack Propaganda Frenzy - Debunked:


 * Arabi Souri is now claiming that some of the child victims shown on video are in fact kidnapped Latakia massacre victims:
 * Some pictures of the children killed by 'Sarin chemical gas' in Ghouta (#Damascus Countryside) are for children kidnapped from #Latakia countryside and their families recognized them.
 * -- Petri Krohn (talk) 04:48, 25 August 2013 (UTC)

It never happened? It very damn well could not have happened, in the slightest bit. But I do suspect it damn well did, at least a bit. And I'm damn friggin' mad about it, and behind on the alleged details. I suspect a poison gas was deployed somewhere, and also a large number of people, including kids, were murdered in the rebel-infested parts of Reef Dimashq. Locals "have not witnessed any “poisonous attack” in the area, but that they could hear gunfire," RT heard. I wonder if the kind of shells used were the same ones used on Alawite Aqrab in December, per opposition sources causing all the deaths that occurred there? Those two were sometimes snipers, and sometimes hacked open kids' skulls. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:39, 22 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Didn't think it through, but the comparison might be better than I thought. The result of the alleged Abrab shelling was rebels in control of the area, 500 Alawite civilians in custody, 300 released, 200 unknown. Confined into a single house, they were denied food and water and had their air poisoned with the smoke of burning tires. Smoke, chlorine, sarin, what have you, and recalling that crossing the "red line" is a bonus... If civilians at gunpoint could be abducted and confined (yes) and if people rebels dislike enough or consider expendable still exist in Syria (yes, in abundance) then "the deaths might have been caused by the use of a weaker chemical agent in a confined space.'' --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:25, 22 August 2013 (UTC)

It never happened? Big picture, above stands, but it seems at least something on the scale of the Houla massacre but with toxic gas happened, perhaps with some battles and dead rebels thrown in, and some creative bookkeeping allowing reports of 1,000 + gassed to panic everyone into "urgent" action. Syria will need to have a look and more carefully say what did and didn't happen. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:25, 22 August 2013 (UTC)

Videos a Day Early?
According to several Assadist sources the attack could not have happened because "Al Jazzera, Reuter published the news of massacre in East Ghouta, Damascus one day before the massacre happened." Yeah, pro-Assad Syrians are not very computer savvy. :-( Petri Krohn (talk) 14:15, 22 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I read - skimmed - that yesterday as well. ;o) What is official Youtube-Time? --CE (talk) 14:29, 22 August 2013 (UTC)

Maybe only indirectly related: If you wanna play a chemical attack victim, better not be ticklish... ;oD --CE (talk) 14:51, 22 August 2013 (UTC)

RT is sticking to the "wrong timeline" story:
 * Materials implicating Syrian govt in chemical attack prepared before incident – Russia – RT, August 23, 2013
 * Despite the 7-hour time difference between Syria and the US, where the YouTube server is located, the mismatch of the dates in the videos raised concerns among some experts about the exact time of the upload.

Even the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Aleksandr Lukashevich is falling for this.''“The materials of the incident and accusations against government troops had been posted for several hours before the so-called attack. Thus, it was a pre-planned action.”'' Doesn't Russia have a fucking intelligence service!
 * Agreed, big fail. It says right there it's U.S. eastern time, which I think is actually 8 hours earlier. 4 am Syria = 8 pm "the previous day" on Youtube. 4 hours of it followed. The actual news story should have been "Despite the 7-hour time difference between Syria and the US, where the YouTube server is located, the mismatch of the dates in the videos raised concerns among some experts about the exact time of the upload," and thus not run! When they say pre-planned, I hope they don't mean this, but just that you don't do this without planning. Or based on some other evidence they can share. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:10, 24 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Is this possibly a subtle joke, or a "soft power" trick that they too can push transparent propaganda, or something? For a nation with 11 time zones, you think they'd get this issue better than most. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:10, 24 August 2013 (UTC)

Looking at YouTube Gdata, I get timestamps 2013-08-21T03:37:12.000Z 2013-08-21T02:51:02.000Z and 2013-08-21T01:00:54.000Z for the three videos embedded on the RT page. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 20:39, 23 August 2013 (UTC)
 * This is a trick I will need to learn (later). Specifics, understood, see? Z = GMT. The last one is almost, maybe, problematic. It's said the attacks stared around 4 am local (I'm hazy). That last one is posted 4:01 local time (GMT +3). That's just barely too early, depending. Probably not. But anyway, that's how you would go about finding things that were up too early, suggesting pre-planning/foreknowledge on the rebel side. It's worth watching for, for sure. Not just with videos, but anywhere. And for foreknowledge on the other side too, for that matter. Nothing credibly reported yet. I suspect anything found will be vague and unprovable, but surely interesting and likely true. * --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:51, 27 August 2013 (UTC)
 *  *  if it blames the rebels. What can I say? They have all the motive and that's the #1 thing. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:53, 27 August 2013 (UTC)

The Lede says actually Youtube's time zone is set to California, Pacific time. That's my own time zone, but it says it's 10 hours behind Syria, not 11. I might be wrong but I thought PST was -8 from GMT. Anyway, this means there were at least six hours of Aug. 21 that would appear on Youtube as Aug. 20, 6 Pm to midnight Caifornia, = the first six hours of the attack, or about all of it. Only things filmed after about 10 am in Syria can even hope to be shown as posted on Aug 21. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:09, 26 August 2013 (UTC)

Chemicals injected after death?
The morgue video from Kafr Batna shows victims being injected with syringes, as noted here. Assad supporters have picked on this an are now claiming the victims were injected after death, apparently to plant false evidence for the UN investigators to find. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:40, 23 August 2013 (UTC)
 * One way or another, they got samples running barricades to the U.N. people, should be there by now with a few km involved. I'm guessing it's samples of human blood they got chemicals into. As that's the whole idea, this sounds plausible. As for doing it right there on video, sure, I could see that audacity, given what I've seen. Otherwise, I don't know. Kind of seems they were killed by gassing, so ideally just that exposure is what would be most realistic.--Caustic Logic (talk) 15:10, 24 August 2013 (UTC)
 * I do not believe there is anything fake in any of the videos. I think all the people in the videos genuinely believe they were gassed by "Assad". How would they know if it was al-Qaeda that launched the rockets? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 18:38, 24 August 2013 (UTC)