Talk:Volnovakha bus incident

Ukraine distributes photos of a bus hit under Volnovakha, 10 people said to be killed, 13 wounded. Novorossia denied it shelled the area. Exact circumstances are not known, disputed. Cassad has the photos, notes that clearly those are photos from 2 different buses (different seats, etc). More photos here. . DPR source suggested a machine gun at a close distance (50 m); denies it was them. Grad shelling will have more severe damage. Looks well-concentrated in a particular area, and with small holes. Also can be anti-personnel landmine like MON-100, ( as a comment suggested). This mine has bullet-like shrapnel. --Resup (talk)16:41, 13 January 2015 (UTC)


 * Now there are videos, showing explosion center, some 7 meters from the bus. No larger fragments typical of Grad seen on video; landmine still seems possible (e.g. somebody went out to get relieved, triggered it; or remotely controlled). Or can be a  fragmentation shell, --yet to be determined what exactly. --Resup (talk)19:16, 13 January 2015 (UTC)


 * Stop! Landmines! sign can be seen at 11.29 and 12.12 of the video. The bus is standing on the shoulder, as if parked. It is just past a barrier with "Stop!" written on it (12:33). Wounds can be seen, appear to be shrapnel-type.   --Resup (talk)22:44, 13 January 2015 (UTC)
 * On BBC, with first photo from a different bus. --Resup (talk) 18:56, 13 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Ms. Harf blames "separatists" --Resup (talk)23:59, 13 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Fragmentation directional mine MON 50 suggested. Has a range of 58 meters; actual distance was just 7 meters. --Resup (talk) 23:59, 13 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Russia's FM representative for Human Rights Dolgov "outraged", demands "objective investigation". Opolchenie says this is too far for their artillery.  --Resup (talk) 02:45, 14 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Steel roll, looking similar to that in mines MON 50 or 90, said to be discovered on the video --Resup (talk) 04:38, 14 January 2015 (UTC)
 * While according to Poroshenko, "President of the European Parliament. Martin Schulz said that on Thursday the European Parliament would call on the EU leadership to include the so-called DPR and LPR into the list of terrorist organizations". --Resup (talk) 04:38, 14 January 2015 (UTC)
 * UN Security Council condemns bus shelling near Donetsk, demands investigation--Resup (talk) 05:34, 14 January 2015 (UTC)


 * Ukrainian video said to be from block-post, show a series of explosions nearby a road. They claim one of those hit the bus. Unclear what causes explosions; Grad is the claim, but not the only possibility. Cannot see the bus on the video. Grad explosions have clear fireball, bigger, and do not occur almost-instantaneously, so Grad is in (serious) doubt. Mines setting of is a possibility (blasts may  have some well-organised pattern).  --Resup (talk) 19:38, 14 January 2015 (UTC)--
 * OSCE, ICCC offer to set a joint group investigate the incident. --Resup (talk) 19:25, 14 January 2015 (UTC)
 * OSCE has been at the scene three hours after the event. Reports that "The bus had shrapnel damage consistent with a nearby [Grad] rocket impact, estimated by the SMM to be 12-15 meters from the side of the bus.". --CE (talk) 12:07, 15 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Seems that OSCE recorded the event, and not much else on top of it. They took Ukrainian report and took 'missile' from there, looked at the bus, and watched some victims taken.  No discussion of crater, or shrapnel elements, or analysis of why 'missile' and not something else. Or what, or whose 'missile'. They said they will do their own investigation, on top of ICCC. I recall that in the past they were saying they do not do forensic or technical evaluations, and do not assign blame. --Resup (talk) 14:38, 15 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Crater seen on video is consistent with "frog" mine OZM 72,  a cylinder which jumps up at height of some 1.5 meters, than explodes.  May have rolls (or balls), so in competition with MON 50 version. Proposed versions also include IED. May be the case as "frog" is an old mine, sets of when a  cable is pulled . Crater looks like OZM 72, but action more like MON 50 (remotely activated). Also, some noted that on the video soldiers carry something resembling MON 50 (fuzzy footage towards the end of the daytime video), so such mines likely were there, somewhere, in any case, for protecting block post. Having radio controlled mine is safer for themselves than having hidden cables --Resup (talk) 22:42, 14 January 2015 (UTC)


 * Blood. Some pointed out that pool of blood is along the bus, and at some distance from it; wondering how that may come about.--Resup (talk) 23:01, 14 January 2015 (UTC)

5 buses, 150 people, held on a road overnight in Volnovakha by Ukraine. Some of passengers are elderly people on their way to receive their pensions or coming back.--Resup (talk) 15:25, 14 January 2015 (UTC)


 * Haven't had much to say yet, but this is interesting and maybe deserves its own page with graphics. Or at least a section. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:20, 15 January 2015 (UTC)


 * Another version of the video, Poroshenko channel. What we see are quite regularly spaced, very symmetric (hard to tell which way they are coming) explosions with almost no  fireball. Number of flashes is hard to count, but may be close to 40 (something like 23-24 right, 16-17 left, and a couple in the middle, give or take few flashes on each side). Time it takes is close to 20 seconds. We also see a cloud from behind moving forward, towards the end of series of explosions.   Than after some fast-forwarded delay of 25 minutes, camera turns, and we see the bus and crater next to it; the rest of that field untouched. No sign people we see in front got too concerned with what happened behind, or that any cars which traveled there stopped; people seem to just start coming towards the bus, not much is seen going on near or in the bus.  Not sure what to make of all this.  Perhaps video glues different episodes, bus episode later than what's in front.  What we see in front can be mines going off.  Typical Grad missile give one big fireball, very different from what we see.  There are 40 launchers in one Grad vehicle. Full set is launched in about 20 seconds. This is clearly not a usual Grad (no fireball; blasts too small, too symmetric, needs to come nearly vertically down for that, but no parachute here).  A version with 45 bomblets in one missile said to be developed; one such  missile has 45 bomblets. Can it be one missile with 45 bomblets?   Those may be not even in use, or else very rare.  As late as 2007, folks were saying that they were developed but not in service. Do not know whether it ever changed, do not see much on internet about them. No reason to make advances with those, as it is old altogether and there are newer more powerful versions. Also, in the East-West direction, opolchenie would be some 25 km away, while the normal range is 20 km,-- and in any case trying to hit a small block post so far away is pointless militarily.  Well, they started to investigate, so I guess they shall continue. --Resup (talk) 03:53, 15 January 2015 (UTC)

Witnesses
Pavel Cheperchuk (Павел Чепчерук), based on his [https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1569298346616222&id=100006082159074&pnref=story Facebook post shortly after the incident. Was travelling from Mariupol to Donetsk. Passed the check point, than continued further. When he passed Bugas (nearby), heard explosions behind and to the left. Left the car, and saw explosions at the block post. They were coming from the WEST. Time was 15.45. (Well, Facebook post is a Facebook post, but...). For example, they might fire on the field in front, after the bus was hit, and montage it together with the  bus on video. In answering questions, Cheperchuk said it was not Grad, but resembled mortar fire. Was landing at 75 degrees or so, coming from the West. His time does not match the time on the video. --Resup (talk) 15:13, 15 January 2015 (UTC)

Witness, who was on the next bus, recalls both buses were checked, held at checkpoint for a long time, let go on empty road. Suspects a transmitter may be placed on a bus.--Resup (talk) 19:25, 14 January 2015 (UTC)

A witness wounded on the bus video, Snezhana, saying that bus passed barriers, turned towards shoulder, perhaps at 60 degrees, and than there was a pop/blow/bang of an explosion. She says that she did not notice any shelling, just one pop going off. She says the bang "pushed the bus off" and broken windows. She was thrown onto people who were 'behind her' (as she says) --Resup (talk) 22:42, 14 January 2015 (UTC)

More survivors. Man 1, recall a queue -2 buses in front. Their bus stopped. Few minutes later, "big explosion". Bus was full, people were standing, not just sitting. Something hit him on the head, and right arm bones were broken. A young guy next to him was killed. He crawled out of a shattered window, got first help, and taken to a hospital. Man 2, recalls several buses in front, they were gradually leaving, one other bus was eventually in front and was checked. They had doors closed, as there was no command to open. He was standing next to the front door. Than there was an explosion. There were couple of familiar girls in front. He is loosing his track, starts to mumble- says "2 or 3, do not remember"--not clear what he means. Video cuts off.
 * Not clear where the bus in front disappeared--should be on the block-post video than? --Resup (talk) 09:11, 15 January 2015 (UTC)


 * The videos appear to be from a more or less fixed webcam 1 or 2 floors above street level. There is some building with car park attached (roadhouse??) just outside Volnovakha where one road into town runs off the main road....good spot to use as checkpoint. BUT injured witnesses are saying there were 3 or 4 other buses in front of them, all waiting to be processed. So processors should be there already, not sauntering over one at a time...and certainly after an explosion maybe they can move a bit faster?.  Another bus should maybe be driving off in the distance. This video seems less edited, shows the camera swinging around a few times, as if from a nearby explosion.KatKan (talk) 18:30, 15 January 2015 (UTC)
 * There are also some more craters when camera turns West... --Resup (talk) 02:32, 16 January 2015 (UTC)

Dashboard Video

 * Kyiv Posts' Christopher Miller on Twitter Dashcam footage surfaces showing apparent rocket strike near bus in #Volnovakha, eastern #Ukraine that killed 12: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XATf-y9DmIk#t=70
 * same as discussed below

This shows two cars and apparently a row of others just parked on the road for some time. At about 1:15 is the explosion in the near-distance, seeming to have a directional force left-to-right as if moving, but maybe not. It goes on for minutes more, but I didn't watch the rest. No opinion yet. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:44, 16 January 2015 (UTC)
 * it starts where the flash is (by the tree). Then blast, followed by debris, spread out radially; maybe a bit less where blocked by tree. This is always how it goes. There may be tilt if it was fast moving, but not here. Guys seen run into woods right before explosion; they may triggered that landmine --Resup (talk) 14:16, 16 January 2015 (UTC)

Another video on rusvesna from a car videocamera (this is common to have). Shows single explosion at 1:14 on the video; that looks very similar to the bus event. Time shown on camera clearly not set correctly. Place looks similar (not exactly sure about towers and light poles match with Poroshenko video, but plausible). --Resup (talk) 17:12, 15 January 2015 (UTC)

Longer version. The guy calls somebody "Artem" and tell about explosion(s) at the checkpoint; also stops at a next checkpoint, asks what happens and asks to call to check what happened.
 * More observations on video. Some noise starts 1:12, two seconds prior to explosion; got noisy microphone, vibration/wind, or something incoming (unclear). Somebody seen running into the woods and explosion follows immediately. In total, camera/car stay pointed Northward for about 10 seconds; apart from that 2 second noise (real or microphone-caused), and a single explosion, there is nothing else seen/heard exploding. While Poroshenko video explosions continue for 20 seconds, with  cloud from behind seen towards the end. So what we see does not look consistent with multi-explosions on the other video.
 * In case if noise is incoming projectile, not microphone or wind: Grad rocket speed is Mach 2, so no sound prior to it hits, and shock wave trails. Something travelling subsonic, e.g. mortar or shell, will be preceded by noise (e.g  projectile coming at about 0.7 Mach, 2 second delay translates into, roughly, 1.5 km range). Noise maybe also from something supersonic overflying (rocket/plane overhead).  --Resup (talk) 02:32, 16 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Flash seen later, by the white post, on the opposite side of the road: likely heavier debris, blown off reaching there and hitting obstacle or plowing into snow--Resup (talk) 14:22, 16 January 2015 (UTC)

I got it! Listen to the soundtrack on the video. This is what happens. GRAD strike hits road some 400 meter ahead of checkpoint. Somebody shouts Incoming! People panic. Seek shelter in the woods or in the ditch by the road. Duck and cover is the correct thing to do. Someone trips on the tripwire in the minefield. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 22:58, 16 January 2015 (UTC)
 * I thought about that, but the idea of "Grads" and 400 meters is imposed by the checkpoint mast video, where something explodes for 20 seconds. I do not hear 20 seconds worth of explosions in dashboard video, I hear something like 2. So I am trying to say that this rumble can be anything. What we see from checkpoint mast video could be arranged to happen after the bus incident happened --Resup (talk) 00:45, 17 January 2015 (UTC)

Ukraine@War Analysis
Activity before impact: zoomed/slowed version Seems useful. It looks like a person, maybe small, runs in that direction just before, but doesn't make it far enough to have stepped into the blast zone. And even if so, one should hope that wouldn't set off the whole field. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:29, 17 January 2015 (UTC)
 * There is no need to step on it, "frog" mine is set off when a hidden cable is pulled setting it off, same often the case with IED --Resup (talk) 15:11, 17 January 2015 (UTC)

Ukraine@War of course blames separatist Grads, a volley of more then 50, meaning two launchers, both based to the NNE in rebel turf. This was already run by James Miller's Interpreter Mag. A number of semi-compelling points, seeming to line up. He seems to presume rocket shrapnel would fly straight sideways from impact, so picks a line perpendicular to the one suggested from impact to the bus. Would be fairly close, I suppose. Seems a bit surprised at the video of multi-explosions (at least 33 seen, somehow counts over 50 impacts), but easily dismisses minefield claims (refuses to link to the video) and suggests why these look different and less fiery than the one, maybe a bit like mines: "The reason why you don't see clear explosions of fire is because most of the rockets get buried (deep) into the snow and ground before exploding. Although SOME fire can be seen." --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:29, 17 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Snow thing is just total rubbish, will not make any difference to high explosives blast, which occur as detonation and does not need to suck oxygen. Especially with 6 kg of high explosives as in Grad. The  guy has no clue what he is talking about, this is just laughable. --Resup (talk) 14:42, 17 January 2015 (UTC)

Un-addressed issues: WHY besides evil-stupid, would they want to blast this place with 50 grads, knowing it would probably kill civilians? Why is there exactly one iompact that really shows a fireball, and it's that one? Why is it the furthest out only that did this, and killed people, when the other 98% of the rockets fell well short of causing fiery stupid-evil like this. Just doesn't seem coincidental ... something weird here, not sure what. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:29, 17 January 2015 (UTC)
 * Special question: he shows there several realistic-looking photos of rocket tubes sticking out of the ground, pointing northeast (the one in the median anyway). Did he miss the one at this special spot by the bus? A blast pattern, a hole, a hypothesis, but no rocket? Another strange difference with this spot? --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:04, 17 January 2015 (UTC)


 * On the special flare-up issue: looking closer, there are a couple of flashes in the barrage/cluster of blasts. One is right amongst the treeline, and is the only other really visible fireball. Is it maybe the lesser snow, the packed/non-tilled earth at the roadside, and branches to combust that makes that dramatic flash? If so, scratch one oddity in this alleged impact amongst the trees by the roadside. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:04, 17 January 2015 (UTC)
 * nothing is combusted in HE explosions, charge detonates almost instantaneously, what is around does not really matter, what matters is how much charge detonates, is it 6 kg like Grad or something like 0.6 kg like a landmine --Resup (talk) 15:11, 17 January 2015 (UTC)

(Ukraine at War analysis with no @  here). According to DPR intelligence major general Petrovsky aka 'bad soldier', from 11 of January Ukraine had top-notch radar tracking station Zoopark 2 in 1.5 km NW of Bugas (nearby that checkpoint). This radar tracks mortar, artillery, missile fire. However, Ukraine refused to provide coordinates of artillery position which supposedly fired on Volnovakha checkpoint. Which would be very easy for them to do. But they prefer to spread info-war rubbish instead, and profit from it--Resup (talk) 15:34, 17 January 2015 (UTC)