Talk:Alleged Chemical Attack, August 21, 2013/Victims Analysis

Death Toll Reports, by City
Various break-downs organized by death toll (presuming each with the same total will have the same sub-totals). Different death tolls are not necessarily in conflict; some were tallied earlier than others, etc. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:01, 4 September 2013 (UTC)


 * 280+: Reported by Jsreen revolution. Notes: 4 towns mentioned: Ain Tarma - Zamalka - Hazeh ( حزة ) - Jobar, with five areas listed. The 5th is likely Irbin, deduced from the breakdown (23 kids, 17 women, 11 men), partly matching the next entry. The others, unclear, had early tolls of: 61, 67, 50+, 50+
 * 646: Reported by sos.syr.un, Aug.22: Over 2/3 of their victims unidentified ("did not reach their names") 201 are named, cities mixed in, hard to tally. The anonymous arrivals at each area's "medical points" are listed below.
 * 1,228: Reported by Douma Coordinating Committee, Aug. 21: "The number of martyrs by medical points in East Gouta - Census Bureau legal unified."
 * 1,300 (clearly rounded, almost same as above) - مجزرة الكيماوي Chemical Massacre Syria‎ Infographic.

I'm still not all clear on the districts in question. Aside from Mouadamiya/Daraya in the far southwest of the city, all the allegedly effected areas are shown in the map below, from Wikimapia. Hazeh is interesting. Big death tolls all around it: as many as 700+ reported in Zamalka and Hamouriya just north (red), significant numbers to the south in Kafr Batna (100/150), east and west in Ain Tarma (75) and Saqba with the consistent 69. Hazeh does not seem to pop up anywhere. Are there just no medical points there? I'll keep an eye out to see if victims from such a place are listed. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:04, 4 September 2013 (UTC)
 * Note: the one alleged chemical rocket impact site, #197, is in what's labeled Hazeh here (north edge, just south of the last a in Zamalka). And prevailing wind in Damascus that day, as Petri looked up, were from the west, blowing across the length of Hazeh. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:44, 4 September 2013 (UTC)
 * New graphic reflects one mention, at least 50 dead there, apparently absorbed into another area's total later? --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:18, 8 September 2013 (UTC)

Videos
My YouTube playlist: Brown Moses has a list with 120 videos. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 18:43, 21 August 2013 (UTC)
 * http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL5WYCTqm6QUFEgCRhTevaLEr2inzR7jZM
 * http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLPC0Udeof3T4NORTjYmPoNCHn2vCByvYG

The earliest original videos seem to be coming from the Kvrbtna Coordinating Committee (تنسيقية كفربطنا): I have no idea where "Kvrbtna" is, but searching for the word in Arabic only brings up massacre pictures and videos. (The logo on the videos says it is Kafar Batna City.) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 19:41, 21 August 2013 (UTC)
 * http://www.youtube.com/user/syriafredoom/videos
 * Kafar Batna is here on the southern outskirts of Irbin (there's a "Al Fateh Hospital" central in the markation). The two places given by the reddit collection are at least two kilometers north-west of that in Jobar. The mentioned Ain Terma and Zamalka are in between.--CE (talk) 20:25, 21 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Excellent start here, Petri, thanks. No time left today. 120 videos? Will not be watching most of those. More soon. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:49, 21 August 2013 (UTC)


 * The Visual Evidence of a Chemical Attack in Syria Is Overwhelming and Disturbing – Dashiell Bennett / The Atlantic Wire, August 21, 2013
 * The government has officially denied using any such weapons, but the United Nations inspection team that arrived in the country on Sunday (to investigate previous claims of chemical weapon attacks) has been denied access to the site. As a result, the images below are the only evidence we have of the devastation — and there is a lot of evidence.

In situ videos
After abandoning my earlier working hypothesis of an chemical weapons rocket attack I have started collecting in situ evidence here. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:35, 29 August 2013 (UTC)
 * الريف الدمشقي عربين حالة هلع بين المدينين وإستخراج شهيدة طفلة من تحت الأنقاض 14 8 2013 (Damascus countryside Irbeen panic among debtors and extraction martyr girl from under the rubble 14 8 2013) – Ibreen Media Office, Aug 14, 2013
 * http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCy6Fp0uAwo (field hospital)
 * http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vSLFE4W0nw (mass grave, closeup)
 * http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCqGGxkNZBU (dead chicken)
 * تغطية للمجزرة الكيماوية الكبرى في الغوطة الشرقية مع ناشطين مجلس قيادة الثورة في ريف دمشق (Coverage of the massacre of the major chemical in East Gouta with activists of the Revolutionary Command Council in Damascus) – Aug 21, 2013
 * Long video, 21 min, morgue scenes, interviews, street scene at 20 min.
 * الغوطة الشرقية 21-8-2013 أب وأم في وداع أطفالهم (East Gouta 08/21/2013 father and mother in their children's farewell)
 * http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4cWrx4zjvA (doctor)
 * http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMNvmICoUmk (bodies outside Kafar Batna hospital)
 * الغوطة الشرقية 22-8-2013 أطفال مجهولي الهوية تم العثور عليهم من ضحايا الكيماوي (East Gouta 22/08/2013 unidentified children were found victims of chemical) – Ibreen CC, August 23, 2013
 * Three badly decomposed bodies are dumped in grave. We are not shown where they were found. Evidently not in their beds, as they are fully dressed. Update Same 3 children as described above in the house with the planted bodies. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:38, 29 August 2013 (UTC)
 * هاااااام للإعلام # الغوطة الشرقية # شاهد عيان يروي لنا ما جرى لحظة القصف بالمواد الكيماوية السامة 2 (Haaaaaam Media # East Gouta # eyewitness tells us what happened to the moment of the bombing of toxic chemicals 2) – Ibreen Media Office, August 21,2013
 * عربين 21 8 2013 قصف جنوني وهستيري عنيف بالمدفعية الثقيلة وراجمات الصواريخ على المدينة (Orbin 21 8 2013 bombing of a violent crazy and hysterical with heavy artillery and rocket launchers on the city) – Ibreen Media Office, August 20,2013
 * بعض الحيوانات النافقة نتيجة استخدام السلاح الكيماوي في زملكا - الغوطة الشرقية (Some dead animals as a result of the use of chemical weapons in Zamalka - East Gouta) – KafarSousah Revolt, Aug 27, 2013
 * dead sheep, shell remains
 * جولة مع قوى الأمن العام للبحث عن مصابين بالسلاح الكيماوي في زملكا - الغوطة الشرقية (Tour with public security forces to search for people with chemical weapons in Zamalka - East Gouta) – KafarSousah Revolt, Aug 27, 2013
 * one decomposed body
 * بعض الحيوانات النافقة نتيجة استخدام السلاح الكيماوي في زملكا - الغوطة الشرقية (Some dead animals as a result of the use of chemical weapons in Zamalka - East Gouta) – KafarSousah Revolt, Aug 27, 2013
 * برومو للمجزرة الكيماوية الكبرى في الغوطة الشرقية HD (Promo for major chemical massacre in East Gouta HD) – c.m.o algota, Aug 27, 2013
 * مؤثر جدا أب يجد بناته بين ضحايا مجزرة الكيماوي في الغوطة الشرقية (Father finds his daughters among the victims of the massacre in East Gota chemical) – SyrRev15Mar2011, Aug 24, 2013 (repost)
 * Morgue scene, real looking emotions.
 * فوق أشلاء وجثث الأطفال رسالة مؤلمة من أحد المجاهدين للأمة الإسلامية والقادة العرب (Above the remains of the bodies of children a painful message from one of the Mujahideen of the Islamic nation and the Arab leaders) – hadi Hdhod, Aug 20, 2013
 * Dead children outside, ISIS member? agitating.

Etc. ...

Symptoms Analysis 1: Burned from Behind
Some gasses leave little physical sign, and in fact most victims in most places appear almost like they could have just suffocated. Others show signs like convulsions and white foam from the mouth, signs which seem to have been faked in the past and easily could be here. But there are some victims who show far more pronounced signs of chemical weapon use. These others have puffed and blistered lips, reddened, scalded-looking skin, sporadic small wounds, with noses and mouth either pouring or plugged with yellow mucous. There is no room for doubt these were hit with someting different and more caustic, or at least much more concentrated, than used elsewhere in the Ghouta attacks. The image at right is of one such victim, possibly from Irbin/Erbin/Irbeen, possibly an adult female but possibly not. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:12, 5 September 2013 (UTC) and --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:08, 7 September 2013 (UTC)

This opposition photo gallery, pages 8 and 9 at least, lacks that image but features numerous other photos of this type of victim gathered in one distinctive morgue. Also note in some views a bloody chunk of (human?) tissue with a leg bone sticking out. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:12, 5 September 2013 (UTC)
 * The space is similar to the one shown near-empty in this earlier video from Kafr Batna coordinating committe. That might be it. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:58, 5 September 2013 (UTC)
 * This appears to be the same room in Kafr Batna, an area explored and shown in a still (with the same victims seen) here. From that videos and a shorter one, both filmed in the pre-dawn dark, I don't think I could locate this spot on the map without more info. But there is an effort to find it here. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:08, 7 September 2013 (UTC)
 * I have started here: Talk:Alleged Chemical Attack, August 21, 2013/Locations. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:21, 7 September 2013 (UTC)

Kafr Batna or wherever it is, this is a/the spot where serious gassing occurred, or where the victims of it wound up. Reliable and widespread symptoms: major foaming from mouth and nose, had been real, yellow mucous (not shaving cream), dried brown and crusty. Puffed, irritated lips (most notable above, less so in this morgue), seriously reddened skin in parts, like an intense rash, with skin apparently ruptured and sunken there. These parts are, consistently, their backsides (not really seen) and up their sides, with the front mostly untouched. This image shows a boy of about 9 showing the symptoms with special clarity. From another source: boy with the same signs and massive nasal flow, apparently in that same room. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:12, 5 September 2013 (UTC) and --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:58, 5 September 2013 (UTC)

A younger boy has a strange little wound under his chin, also visible on the victims in the embedded image above. The first boy linked to above has a smaller mark to the front of his chin. Others verifiably don't have this mark, but that's enough to wonder what the hell it can mean. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:12, 5 September 2013 (UTC)

Possible Explanations
What could explain this class of genuine and terrible symptom brought on so acutely and indiscriminately on people of all ages? Both symptom and forensic clues should be drawn on - not only what might have been used, but how. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:12, 5 September 2013 (UTC)

Starter: The burning is pretty cosistently to the victim's backside, not seen, lightening around the sides, with little to no scalding on the front. This is consistent with a person caught in a nasty dense cloud of the stuff while sleeping face down. But not everyone sleeps face-down. Will most people turn their back to some spray of poison gas? Yes. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:12, 5 September 2013 (UTC)

Alleged Victims who Died Too Early
The overriding opposition narrative of the Ghouta gas attacks says that it started between 2 and 3 am on August 21. Anyone who died before that clearly didn't die from that. An analysis partly done on this site verifies at least 8 massacred civilians presented as victims but really who were decayed victims of something criminal, in a rebel-held area, no later than August 18. This is explained in detail and left on the main talk page: BREAKING: Rescue team finds whole family dead in their house!.

In summary, eight bodies shown August 24 as just found "36 hours after a chemical weapons attack" they implicitly died from. But the symptoms they show are mainly just decay, gunshot, possible gunshot, slice to the arm, much unseen, and ooze that could be the mucous seen elsewhere or, again, decay, and probably more than three days worth. A fair range seems to be 4-7 days. Then a perfect clothing match ties six of these eight (including all five children with the most distinctive clothes) to videos posted back on August 22. 9 victims total, they say, of "the chemical massacre." It's the same people already found, scooped up, driven to a mass grave, and dropped in, no later than the 22nd, so likely killed, by whatever exactly, at least 2-3 days before the alleged missiles were fired. That's false attribution. The onsite clues suggests they were captives/hostages, taken to this empty building still under construction, and somehow executed. It's clearly not their home, devoid of furnishings. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:57, 7 September 2013 (UTC)

Stabbed Girl?
Answer: No (see end of section). For what it's worth, then: One video, two postings:
 * 21 8 2013 هام جدا الغوطة الشرقية اختناق الاطفال وموتهم بسبب القصف بالكيماوي (East Gouta very important bottleneck (suffocation) children and deaths due to bombardment with chemotherapy (chemical weapons)) – posted by MrERBEEN2011
 * Syria Father crying over his Children who were killed in the Chemical Attack on Eastern Gouta (+18) – Bashar Assad Crimes Archive, Aug 21, 2013
 * A father is shedding tears over his children who were killed due to the shelling on Eastern Gouta with chemical weapons by Assad's gangs. A great number of injuries was documented which is not less than 50 martyrs so far in this area. All of them died due to suffocation with poisonous gas. We urge the International Investigation Committee and the powerless world to see how Syria's children are getting killed with chemical weapons by the hands of an imbecile tyrant.

Interestingly the "father" is more interested in calling for the UN and NATO to bomb "Assad" than in the death of his daughters. One must thus conclude that this is a pure propaganda video and provides no evidence on the situation on the ground, apart from the fact that three people are dead. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:16, 27 August 2013 (UTC)

The girl in yellow seems to be the one discussed below not matching the other girl in yellow. That scene is given as Irbin, suggested here by poster "MrERBEEN2011·710." As for the girl in purple more at the center of this video, that must be her next to her sister in the other video - similar shirt and circular logo with pink center and lighter fringe. --Caustic Logic (talk)

On closer inspection one must ask: why does the girl have an open stab wound on her chest? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:16, 27 August 2013 (UTC)
 * I watched this, forgot to comment. Pretty horrible, of course. He's saying he's her father, isn't he? I'm not buying it, too old. The dead guy next to the dead kids seems a better fit - in his undershirt. "It isn't my turn to eat today," her last words - that was a bit much. And yes, she does have a hole in her chest, right about over the heart. It almost looks like the old creep is sticking his finger in it at one point, and it seems wider after that. I could wonder about a medical reason -there are some conditions where you inject adrenaline into the heart with a giant needle, like in the movie Pulp Fiction. Otherwise, looks like an Islamist stabbed her in the heart with a small blade. Maybe they're Alawites really. Whatever, camera fodder for cannon pleadings. Callous baby-shakers, I hate these people. Hands off Syria, motherfucker! --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:28, 28 August 2013 (UTC)


 * Also, I wonder why they didn't think to pull her shirt back down. She's apparently even done bleeding by this time. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:42, 2 September 2013 (UTC)

The girl in purple can also be seen here, in a hospital setting - same pushed-up shirt, same gray pants with purple pocket seams: 2013-8-21 هااام - الاصابات بين الاطفال والنساء جراء القصف الاسلحة اليكماويةعلى الغوطة الشرقية G-trans: Haaam - injuries among children and women shelling weapons Alakmawihaly the East Gouta. Stamped Erbin, uploaded by erbeeni. That must be her next to the girl in yellow below. She's visible here too, getting oxygen. Her eyes are very sunken and dark-looking. Both look pretty dead, maybe a day in and past rigor mortis. But they are being treated with IVs and have been washed down as if chemical exposed. Living patients litter the floor, these two get the beds. Do they think she might be alive? Didn't her "father" inform them of her condition and her sad last words? --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:42, 2 September 2013 (UTC)

In that video, you just cannot see the purple girl's left side to see if the wound is there yet, but probably. I couldn't save a copy, cannot get a good screen pause at 0:14 or 0:26 to be sure - the cameraman seems to be avoiding a view of that area, for one clue it is wounded in this non-CW way. Again, they didn't just pull her shirt back down, I wonder why? It's pulled down in the later morgue video, after they conceded a failure to revive her and her sister. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:30, 2 September 2013 (UTC)


 * I extracted the frames from the video. These are a few fuzzy frames that show the camera panning past the stabbed side. There is something dark purple there, cannot say what. What the video does, it cannot prove the stab was not there. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 00:05, 5 September 2013 (UTC)

I was a little baffled how the wound wasn't bleeding (there are possible reasons), and it turns out it's not a wound, and our graphics are either irrelevant or misnamed. Looking through photos, I found a few useful views of these sisters in better resolution. With "dad," the spot looking more like a large birthmark, no depth. It's even more clear laying next to her sister, whose arm is already bandaged for an IV it seems was applied pretty roughly - if not for these clues I'd say she was sliced in the arm. This is apparently after [http://images1.naharnet.com/images/89713/w460.jpg?1377082512 she was given oxygen at the hospital. So the "home" they were filmed in (looks like a cluttered basement) is something else, or anyway after the clinic visit. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:23, 5 September 2013 (UTC)
 * False Lead Alert

Body Recycling?
There are allegations that a smaller pool of victims was passed off as a larger one by presenting the same victims numerous times, each time as different victims. There's at least one alleged example of this alleged, concerning some of the larger victims arrays shown. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:07, 2 September 2013 (UTC)

Swedish Expatriates Analysis
This video tries to debunk a large part of the story (now translated into English): The same group of small children (girls mainly, like the ones we saw in the Baniyas massacre) are filmed in at least three different arrangements. Each piece of footage is then published by a different rebel YouTube channel. (One of them is the Kafr Batna Coordinating Committee) Did they move the bodies around to film them in different parts of the Eastern Ghouta? For all I know these could be Kurd children massacred in Tal-Abyad by ISIS. (See Dead girls in morgue above.) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:29, 22 August 2013 (UTC)
 * Fake massacre by Syrian army using Chemical weapons – Translated by Syrians in Sweden
 * Watched that. I agree with their call. It seems she's been been presented in three spreads that seem to be described as different victims batches in different towns. Three times, one victims. Other matches should be likely if so. And yes, they would be that sloppy and usually are. But in one room, we see what looks like about two dozen young girls. As a baseline indicator, this has to be big. I'd estimate 30 boys, 20 women, 30 men, another just-triple-digits on-the-fringes "Shabiha" massacre of certain families is a lot what it looks like, but with no visible wounds. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:25, 22 August 2013 (UTC)
 * The debunk is debunked here: The Ghouta Chemical Attack Propaganda Frenzy - Debunked:

I checked the debunk, and it seems pretty good. I'm not sure the first two are the same room, but it was never made clear they're even supposed to be different places. Both first videos fail to mention where they are. I can add that at least four other children come out in common between the two, meaning it is exactly the same array. Whatever place(s) these are, it's apparently not Irbin, because the third video says it is and it's a different place. But as the debunkation was ableto show, it's not the same girl. Yellow and gray, but not in the right places. Otherwise similar, but not the same. I wondered about the purple shirted girl near her, and there are two similar tops appearing in the first videos, but the sub-colorsdo not match. Different body arrays shown between the three videos: two. If there's deception in the first two, it wasn't shown here. The Swedish activists failed. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:25, 2 September 2013 (UTC)


 * The location is most connected with the Kafr Batna Coordination Committee, a real hospital or a temporary one in school or other public building. We should have out own subpage for this one site and start off by identifying the hospital location. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 13:48, 2 September 2013 (UTC)
 * I was thinking this page could have sections for each town's body array(s). Irbin is partly covered. Locations might best be covered under Main talk, locations, like I just did with the Zamalka mass grave. Too many pages is a possible problem too. This one should have some space to spare. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:55, 2 September 2013 (UTC)

Victim Lists
It's said there are lists compiled with over 1,000 names. If anyone finds any, they could be linked here. I looked only a bit, might take an Arabic search on Facebook. --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:19, 1 September 2013 (UTC)

At right is a Facebook timeline photo of a partial list, 33 victims, from the rebel-run "Legal Office of the City of Erbin."

s.o.s.syr.un
Here is a list on Facebook (text saved) of a LCC-sized death toll - 646 deaths accounted for, named individually up to 201, then in giant groups with bulk explanations. It's headed (trans) "Our National Council. Our demand military intervention. Under the supervision of the United Nations." (is that the group's name? - domain s.o.s.syr.un - UN help Syria) And it describes what it lists as "- 646 Shahid chemical weapons from Damascus and its countryside towns - 19 martyr chemical weapons from outside towns Damascus and its countryside." --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:29, 3 September 2013 (UTC)

There is a lot of useful (alleged) information in this list, some of it to be worked into areas above. Here I'll note a key feature of it - it says a majority of victims (the 445 given in lumps) were all unidentified. This was compiled on August 22, so it could be that many people simply hadn't been identified in the chaos. But it could be a clue. One thing that captors who'd taken hostages and their identity cards or papers can do is identify them easily. So perhaps they'd decide not to - they'd rather not name the hostages or make up fake names, so they "just found them like that." For what it's worth and because there's space, the entries for over 2/3 of their victims, "did not reach their names": --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:54, 3 September 2013 (UTC)

201-236 - Thirty-six martyrs Sham Medmah. 236-294 - Fifty-eight martyrs ... arrived for field hospitals in the city Douma ... 294-394 - a hundred Shahid ... arrived to field hospitals in city Kafr Batna ... 394-544 - hundred and fifty martyrs ... field hospitals in the city Hamouriya ... including 50 / children / women 40/50 Youth (men?) ... 544-574 - Thirty martyr ... field hospitals in the city Irbeen ... including 23 children and 17 women. 574 - 643 - Sixty-nine martyrs ... in the city Sakba ... 643-646 - Four martyrs of them is not recognized ... in the city of bridges ( جسرين - jsryn = Jisreen?) as a result of the bombing of regime forces of the Eastern Ghouta chemical weapons
 * (from the double-use of cut-off numbers - 294, 394, 544, etc.) it seems they undercounted by a few. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:54, 3 September 2013 (UTC)

Then, past 646, further entries with no numbers. I count 19 more, 14 "martyrs," five "Mujahid," all killed "as a result of the bombing of regime forces to chemical weapons," most of them from out of town and worth a closer look. Martyrs: Jamil Mohammed al - Bitar / Latakia / cited in Medmah City Sham, Abu Hashim ( not up the name ) / hamah / cited in Medmah City Sham, Abu Ali ( not up name ) / Qunaitra / cited in Medmah City Sham ... Abu Bakr ( not up name ) / Aleppo / cited in Medmah ... Abdul Rahman Ahmad al - Khatib 60 years old / Rural of Aleppo - مارع / Zamalka Rural Damascus / cited in the town of Zamalka ... Samia Mohamed Khatib, 55 years old (the wife of the martyr Abdul Rahman Ahmad Khatib) (same info) ... Mujahid: Mahmoud F Aeran 50 / Deir al - Zour - Abu Kamal / martyred in East Gouta ... Abbas Asad flea 21 / Deir al - Zour - Abu Kamal / martyred in East Gouta  ... Hassan ( Abuahd ) ( did not reach nickname ) 21 / Deir al - Zour - Abu Kamal / martyred in East Gouta ... Nasser al - Balkhi / shield - Bosra Sham Army / free / martyred in the East Gouta ... Sami Mohammad Kurdi Guenbs ( قنبس ) / shield - warm (dr'ea - alharh ) Army free (FSA) / cited in the town of Zamalka More martyrs, related to last Mujahid Guenbs ( قنبس ): Fatima ( did not reach nickname ) ( (wife of?) Sami Guenbs ) / shield - warm / cited in the town of Zamalka -  Child: Abdul Karim Sami Guenbs /  (same info) - Child: Abdullah Sami Guenbs (same) - Girl: Asma Sami Guenbs (same) - (name unknown - wife of the martyr Sami Mohammed Guenbs -  Samih Mohamed Guenbs, / shield - warm / cited in the town of Zamalka - a second unnamed wife of Sami Mohammed?   --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:13, 3 September 2013 (UTC)

SCDV
I looked at the opposition Center for Documentation of Violations (SCDV) database. It's a thing I usually do, a little late here. Here's what I found messing with different parameters, all of course based on what was reported to them: All Damascus suburbs deaths from "Chemical and toxic gases" Aug. 21: 509, out of 542 total "martyr" deaths. This morning it said 510, but the overall death toll remains the same; one was demoted. By category, chem alone (total): Child, female: 44 (45). Child, male: 49 (51). Adult female: 115 (119) Adult male: 301 (327). That's way too many men to be totally random, even including teenagers - it's more than the other categories combined. That's gender segregation, isn't it? Was the Syrian equivalent of the YMCA hit? implied core of families, older children as children, not adults, rough estimates: adult women minus teenagers = 90. girls +30 = 75. boys + 35 = 86. Adult men of families: 120. Non-attached men: 179? --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:19, 1 September 2013 (UTC)

Order of reports: numbers are issued as reports come in, and they're listed by number order. The first entries are from Mouadamiyeh, then a bunch from Zamalka, coming from both in intermingled bursts, Ain Tarma Kafr Batna ... really scattered returns, main feature is how the majority say Zamalka. Jobar and Daraya victims come in only in ones, then several from Hazza, more Zamalkas, Kafr Batna... that's part of the list scanned, into page 2. What stands out too is how a majority of all entries say Zamalka: 344 out of the 509 (it was 345 earlier, the demoted one was one of them). men 198, women 83, boys 30, girls 34 (of 44 total to chems!) I think these locations refer to where they're from, not necessarily where they died. At least a few say Area: Zamalka. Martyrdom location: (blank). --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:19, 1 September 2013 (UTC)

Non-civilian deaths in what included a government offensive against rebels and rebel-held areas: of 301 men gassed, 13 are listed as on-civilian. Another 13 were killed with other weapons, rhe list says, for a total of 26 acknowledged rebel fighters killed in the Damcus suburbs that day. --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:19, 1 September 2013 (UTC)


 * I would expect men – out fighting at night – to be more exposed that children in protected bedrooms. Aerosol nerve agents just cannot get in. Kerry has the numbers upside down, with one third children. This ratio would need specific targeting, like hostages killed or something. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 02:39, 1 September 2013 (UTC)


 * But this is civilian men, not supposedly out fighting. However, fathers and uncles will also go out to investigate, find food, fight if needed, and leave the wife and kids at home. And so, more men from more homes would be out when it hit, gassing a wide area, with less families in basements only in the immediate area. (If aerosol can't do it, let's say they blame a heavy creeping gas). So the same pattern would hold, to whatever degree - more men will die. Okay. But that's in the scenario where there was significant gassing in the open, which we're questioning. If these are primarily killed captives, and the numbers are at all accurate, it seems like the same all or mostly men massacred in Daraya, the Queiq River, etc. Or Possibly laundered rebels included, in huge numbers, or some combination. Just what SCDV records mean, as usual, isn't certain. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:03, 1 September 2013 (UTC)

The SCDV list is still shrinking! It said 510, then 509, now 507 deaths.This time, the total number changed: 542 to 540. So no one was demoted to a different death, but rather all the way to not dead at all. I have no good way to discern which people these were. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:00, 3 September 2013 (UTC)
 * Their Arabic language list is different, FWIW:544 total deaths, 511 by chemicals, ATM. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:04, 3 September 2013 (UTC)
 * English list is back up, 512 now. The end of the list, last added I think, tend to be women and children and related men, from Zamalka and mostly Erbeen, somehow documented late, but some (like this little baby girl) have (delayed?) photos of recently dead people. She's their victim #94048. 94047 died in Homs September 3. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:56, 4 September 2013 (UTC)
 * I arranged the English list by "Area". Out of the 512 a total of 340 are from Zamalka. 73 are from Mouadamiyeh. Interestingly, only 15 are said to be from Kafr Batna, although the morgue there was shown to contain 100 bodies. Could it be, that the Kafr Batna bodies were from Zamalka. Maybe Kafr Batna has better health facilities. There was a hospital there, but I do not know if that is where the bodies are shown.
 * Also note, that the "Area" is not the same as place of death; this woman is filed under "Arbeen", but "Martyrdom location"	is Zamalka. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 00:35, 5 September 2013 (UTC)
 * Zamalka already noted. Others I didn't check for. I know but forget that area means from. By and large should be the same, but often isn't. Possibly interesting. Also, consider Hazeh as a (possible, alleged) source of victims taken to other areas, as none are recorded there. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:37, 5 September 2013 (UTC)

Voltaire Net

 * Identification of the dead children in Ghouta – 6 September 2013
 * ''Following the broadcasting of the images of the massacre in Ghouta, Alawite families from Latakia have filed a complaint for murder.
 * The children do not correspond to a sample of the population: they are all almost of the same age and have light hair. They are not accompanied by their grieving families. They are in fact children who were abducted by jihadists two weeks before in Alawite villages in the surroundings of Latakia, 200km away from Ghouta.
 * The only identified victims of the Ghouta massacre are those belonging to families that support the Syrian government. In the videos, the individuals that show outrage against the ’’crimes of Bashar el-Assad’’ are in reality their killers.
 * I just added a Sky News Interview with an Assad Advisor who tells the same story. If it is true, why don't we have detailed reports about it including parents statements, not through the Russian channels, not through SyrPer or SANA, etc? They should know that it's urgent by now, shouldn't they? A few lines by VN of all places sure isn't enough. Maybe there's something in the English language Syrian TV reports? --CE (talk) 18:44, 7 September 2013 (UTC)
 * Voltaire Net says: The wide distribution of satellite channel images of victims allowed Alawite families near Latakia to recognize their children who had been abducted two weeks prior by the "rebels."
 * Most likely the parents do not have access to YouTube and do not even know that the videos would be freely available for anyone to watch. What they do is sit glued to their TV sets waiting for al-Jazeera's massacre porn hour. They may then see a glimpse of their children but have no way of identifying the source – other than "my daughter was on al-jazeera."
 * We have supposedly been studying this massacre for over two weeks now and are just starting to identify the locations and the associated videos and victims. Thierry Meyssan says the French services "saw about 281 victims on videos", evidently grouping the videos and identifying each victim shown. If only this work was done in the open! -- Petri Krohn (talk) 06:09, 8 September 2013 (UTC)

Douma

 * See also Talk:Alleged Chemical Attack, August 21, 2013/Locations

Google translate's "always" = دوما = dwma (romanized) = Douma

Entire sos.sy.un list contains entries 193, 194, 200 for individual Douma victims, then 58 unnamed ones in a lump. Entries 236-294: "Fifty-eight martyrs did not reach their names / Damascus / arrived for field hospitals in the city Douma as a result of the bombing of regime forces of the Eastern Ghouta chemical weapons" --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:34, 3 September 2013 (UTC)
 * 193. Martyr: Abdul Rahman (Abu Hassan) / Damascus - Always / PhD in psychology - Islamic Studies / cited (died) during the evacuation of the martyrs of chemotherapy
 * 194. Mujahid: Abdul Rahman trochanter (Abu Bashar al-) / Damascus - (from?) Douma / Army free (FSA) / cited (died) in the Jobar neighborhood of Damascus.
 * Facebook photo as linked: Looks like a CW victim, asphyxiation, roughed up eyes, mucous from the nose.
 * 200. Martyr: Mahmoud Mohammed Shehadeh Mansour / Damascus - Sham Medmah / died in Douma rural Damascus


 * دوما::عدد كبير من الشهداء جراء الاختناق بالغازات السامة (Always :: large number of martyrs by asphyxiation with poison gas) – outside morgue scene
 * All or mostly adult males (14 seen), mostly wrapped, fighting age, most neither clean-shaven nor bearded. One uncovered is lightly-bearded, wears army fatigue trousers, white sneakers (Shabiha?) and torn t-shirt. Face battered and scratched up, likely explosion, swollen black eye, head wounds, bandaged (or is that just some cap?), tube in arm, fluid drip, something in his mouth. Left arm saw fire and smoke, right hand, blood. All could be soldiers or rebel fighter/defectors. Not the slightest sign of CW involvement I can see, but it's possible. Little clue to location. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:28, 2 September 2013 (UTC)

Apparently Douma was not claimed as gassed. this activist summary for Douma gives a total of 16 martyrs, with #1 being the red-bearded Mujahid Hero Abdel Rahman trochanter ( المدور ) Abu Bashar, who was martyred chemical weapons on Jobar front of the Mujahideen of Al-Farouk brigade." (Facebook tribute photo). Abdul Rahman, the doctor of psychology and Islam is listed (#15), but otherwise most or all of the rest are Mujahid / rebel fighters as well, killed elsewhere. Pretty close to exactly what the video above shows.