Talk:Crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17

TO DO!

 * List of MH17 airframe parts
 * MH17 timeline

I recommend this time we (eventually) clean-up the random sections below, working everything into an organized system. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:41, 28 July 2014 (UTC)
 * But this is the talk page, isn't it? Still a good idea but whatever. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:53, 28 July 2014 (UTC)

Witness Accounts

 * BBC Russian video since pulled? Did they really even produce this? The locals all say there was a fughter jet that turned and left a different way. I put it here until I transcribe the subtitles. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:53, 28 July 2014 (UTC)
 * Eyewitness #1: There were two explosions in the air. And this is how it broke apart. And [the fragments] blew apart like this, to the sides. And when …


 * Eyewitness #2: … And there was another aircraft, a military one, beside it. Everybody saw it.


 * Eyewitness #1: Yes, yes. It was flying under it, because it could be seen. It was proceeding underneath, below the civilian one.


 * Eyewitness #3: There were sounds of an explosion. But they were in the sky. They came from the sky. Then this plane made a sharp turn-around like this. It changed its trajectory and headed in that direction [indicating the direction with her hands].

(that was easy - Gleb already did it) At that page is the video of the lady fighter in Slovyansk (so sad) a month before - June 18 - relating how the air force there recently had a jet hiding behind a civilian plane as it bombed the city. She thought it was to provoke a shootdown of the airliner and get the separatists branded as terrorists. This both offers a precedent for a real July 17 possibility, and a precedent for some folks to think that's what they saw or should say they saw. It will come down to what lines up. Most of this is vague, but witness 3 seems fairly astute and describes a turn I believe Russian radar also described. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:25, 29 July 2014 (UTC)


 * Reuters: “From my balcony I saw a plane begin to descend from a great height and then heard two explosion," said one separatist from nearby Krasnyi Luch who gave his name only as Sergei. He denied the rebels had shot the plane down. "This could happen only if it was a fighter jet or a surface-to-air missile (that shot it down)," he said, noting that the rebels did not have weapons capable of shooting down a plane at such a height."
 * Note, on seeing the video, this seems to be post-shoot-down. He probably saw it nose-diving as it "descended." Something booms as it falls (was it twice? or an echo?) - I suspect it's one of the wing fuel tanks., since one of the wings is fully on fire. This accounts adds nothing but a description of what we can see for ourselves already, and his assessment is opinion - a bomb on board could have done it for all he knows. --Caustic Logic (talk)


 * Daily Mail witness accounts emerge but they only share one, at the bottom of a huge pile of large photos and fat fingers pointing lazily.
 * A local farmer said: ‘I was herding my cows and heard a buzzing noise. ‘I lay on the ground and thinking only that it would not hit me and my cows. Then I looked and saw that something turns sharply and two big wings were flying. Bang. And something explodes. It came from eastern side, from the side of Sokholikha mountain.’ 

Warhead damage
Financial Times clames their photo shows BUK type shrapnel damage. I do not quite agree. The 70 kg warhead should produce larger damage. All warheads – even rod warheads – produce some shrapnel. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 08:13, 22 July 2014 (UTC)
 * MH17 crash: FT photo shows signs of damage from missile strike – July 21, 2014


 * FYI - the aircraft panel in the link image is the left-hand cockpit wall and the start of the lefthand windscreen at the top. That's where the Captain sits. I doubt he survived the initial engagement.


 * Also interesting is the latest 'leaked' US intelligence map showing the missile launched from right of track and curling around to attack the left. A bit of a stretch to fit a theory?
 * --Charles Wood (talk) 01:07, 23 July 2014 (UTC)


 * This image shows cockpit seat rails and rear centre consul. Note at bottom what appears to be RH / first officers windscreen frame with shrapnel egress.


 * https://secure.flickr.com/photos/jer...7595/lightbox/
 * https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeroen...ream/lightbox/


 * same windscreen from different angle amongst plant. *note what appears to be shrapnel damage to pilots seat back just below top inertia reel.


 * https://secure.flickr.com/photos/jer...7595/lightbox/


 * Combined with ingress damage on PIC side, the shrapnel will have taken out both aircrew instantly
 * --Charles Wood (talk) 03:57, 23 July 2014 (UTC)
 * Your photo links are broken. Are they from the same photoset? I do not see any cockpit parts in the same set with the tail section photos. There is another set here and even more damage photos here. Still don't know what photos you are referring to. Evidently this cockpit explosion did not disintegrate the whole front section of the fuselage, as the BUK warhead would have done, if it exploded near the cockpit. Photos I have seen show the intrument panel without any shrapnel damage, with glass broken by the impact on the ground.
 * If the missiles were fired from the Su-25, then most likely multiple missiles would have been launched. If only one missile was used, as would be the case with the BUK then the "rod" damage to the upper side of the left wing would have to come from the same explosion. If you follow the lines in the drawing here then the explosion would have to be very near the fuselage. This makes me believe a small air-to-air warhead was used.
 * Can you identify where the other body panel with blast damage is from?
 * P.S. – Strelkov noted that there was blood in the cockpit but the passengers were "lifeless" and bloodless. This would be explained, if the pilots were killed by shrapnel and the passengers by loss of cabin pressure at 33,000 feet. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 11:07, 23 July 2014 (UTC)


 * The links worked when I posted them. Odd. They were jeroenakkermans images of the cockpit area. A big heap of wreckage with keyboards etc visible. I can only affirm they showed some cockpit skin and pilot seat amongst many other items and it was clear there was damage in from left and out through right when looking at identifiable parts. Will search the image archive later.

--Charles Wood (talk) 12:17, 23 July 2014 (UTC)


 * Note: broken here too. Might be around in a diff. posting, etc. I'm looking a little at the images that are here but not enough to say anything yet - I'm convinced it's well worth doing and things can be figured out - will catch up in time. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:28, 23 July 2014 (UTC)


 * This one shows Right-hand cockpit window at bottom of screen. All photos in this group are cockpit remnants--Charles Wood (talk) 20:25, 23 July 2014 (UTC)

These photographs show clear rod warhead damage to left wing. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 08:13, 22 July 2014 (UTC)
 * Scenes of MH17 20-7-2014 – Jeroen Akkermans RTL News Berlin


 * Wreckage Offers Clues on Why Flight 17 Went Down – New York Times, July 21, 2014
 * ''Photographs of a piece of wreckage found by two reporters for The New York Times and analyzed by Reed Foster, a defense analyst with IHS Jane’s, offer some clues about what could have caused Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 to crash. While it is impossible from the photographs to determine that a specific missile was used, Mr. Foster said, the damage is consistent with the effects of a fragmentary warhead carried by an SA-11, the type of missile that American officials have said was most likely behind the attack.


 * Weasel words to note: impossible to tell what missile (correct, makes you seem balanced) It's consistent with many types of missile, therefore. But they only say "consistent with ... the type of missile that American officials have said" is part of the tragedy "made in Moscow" as they say. In between, the most loaded and likely relevant specifics right in elipses there, to make that one consistent missile type sound like the most technically likely, boosting the gov. call, in turn boosting the "confirmation," etc. Bad weasels.--Caustic Logic (talk) 12:28, 23 July 2014 (UTC)


 * Does MH17 wreckage prove that it was shot out the sky by a warhead? – Daily Mail, 22 July 2014
 * The photos show the critical piece with blast damage and "shrapnel" holes. I think it proves exactly the opposite to what the Daily Mail is claiming. The 70 kg BUK warhead would have done much serious damage. This piece seem to be torn off by a rod warhead of a air-to-air missile. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 22:38, 22 July 2014 (UTC)

What Can Forensics Prove?
We're now getting organized, with List of MH17 airframe parts - a picture of how the plane was impacted will emerge. The BUK alleged (Wikipedia) has radar guided missiles that can track, turn, change altitude, etc. So I conclude the damage won't tell us if the missile was air-to-air or from the surface, or what direction it was fired from. It's still worth knowing, of course, but ... could use some discussion maybe on what we can/can't/should be aiming for here. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:40, 28 July 2014 (UTC)


 * The damage will tell us it was an air-to-air missile with rod warhead fired from the front, that exploded when its proximity fuse passed the cockpit window. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:04, 28 July 2014 (UTC)


 * More specifically,I don't think the angle of impact can tell us anything. Maybe I was the only one that for a minute thought it could - if it scraped the top of the wing, it must've been fired from above the wing, behind and to the left. But it could have just leveled out there after flying up, turning, etc. Other clues are what they are - payload type and size, dynamics I don't know. I note Charles here said the damage looks less like a rod than regular shrapnel, if that matters. For my part, I'm suspecting Surface fired, partly because the people who should know (Kiev) keep saying that and claiming they can show you the exact launcher. Maybe they can and did. Maybe the jet was there to help explain why the separatists did it, and to observe, or something. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:14, 29 July 2014 (UTC)
 * This analysis say it was a 30 mm autocannon. Maybe. (English summary) One thing is sure; it was not a Buk or fired from the surface. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:22, 29 July 2014 (UTC)
 * Russian analysis says it is not a Buk. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:36, 29 July 2014 (UTC)


 * Since that's what I suspect at the moment, some discussion should follow. Will check those links soon. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:42, 29 July 2014 (UTC)


 * Effect of 25mm and 30mm cannon shells Gives an extremely good idea of what cannon shell damage looks like. I don't see any damage pattern on MH17 wreckage to match that. On the other hand the damage pattern from a proximity detonated shrapnel warhead is entirely consistent with the damage. E.g.


 * [[File:Shrapnel_sample.png]]


 * An expanding rod warhead is eliminated as there is no damage match. E.g.


 * [[File:Hobartdamage2.jpg]]


 * --Charles Wood (talk) 03:39, 30 July 2014 (UTC)

Radar Evidence

 * NSNBC July 22:
 * Tony Cartalucci (LD) : MH17 Show & Tell: It’s the West’s Turn. Russia has now shown its satellite pictures and radar information from the Donetsk, Ukraine region during the July 17, 2014 Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 crash.

...(citing Wall Street Journal)...
 * In an elaborate presentation displaying radar and satellite imagery, (air force chief Igor Makushev) said it was likely that the second airplane was a Ukrainian fighter jet. He also showed satellite photos allegedly portraying several Buk ground-to-air missile systems in the area close to where the plane crashed. The systems, he said, could only belong to the Ukrainian military. Ukraine has accused Russia of giving the rebels a Buk system, with which they then shot down the passenger jet.


 * Mr. Makushev said the airplane deviated from its course by 14 kilometers, but then attempted to return to its course, before crashing shortly after.


 * He said Russia is prepared to hand all of the information it has to European authorities, which included satellite imagery and data from its own radars


 * RT on the press conference.


 * CNN on the "propaganda war"
 * In the tangled aftermath of the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 disaster, two narratives have emerged -- one that most of the world subscribes to, and another that Russia and the rebels are pushing.
 * Note: one side just presented its own detailed radar information. The other side relies on private company Flighttracker 24, it seems. Not field radar, this follows transponders only, I think. It would not see any fighter jet shadowing the plane. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:57, 29 July 2014 (UTC)

Air-to-air missile?

 * Вот и первые признаки БЧ. Сбивал не Бук-М1 (Here are the first signs of warheads. Not hit by Buk-M1)

This is disproved. It's confirmed a Grad Missile was used. GRAD Missile downed aircraft :-) --Charles Wood (talk) 10:00, 20 July 2014 (UTC)

Pilot confesses? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 00:00, 29 July 2014 (UTC)
 * Ukrainischer Pilot gibt Abschuss von MH17 zu

Slightly informed comment on air defences
See vineyardsaker. Certainly biased, but internally reasonably consistent --Charles Wood (talk) 02:12, 19 July 2014 (UTC)

I'll just add various rumours / propaganda I've heard so far.

- US Satellites tracked the missile

- Russia did it (at least morally)

- Ukraine did it (for continuing the battle)

- The plane was deliberately diverted to the location it was shot down

- There was a storm over Crimea causing the diversion

- add your rumour here

What I haven't heard yet is the terrorist bomb theory. If the plan had crashed in say Poland that would have been the only game in town. --Charles Wood (talk) 02:12, 19 July 2014 (UTC)

Tin Foil (Hat) theory of Military Chaff falling in crash video
Video shows man explaing that long streamers in crash video are actually military chaff from a Ukranian fighter shadowing MH17

Military Chaff Theory

Simple debunk. The stuff must have been a metre or more wide and hundreds of metres long to be visible at that range. No such military chaff system has that sizing, least of all one that can be carried by a fighter jet.

The only foil in this video is on the guy's head.

--Charles Wood (talk) 00:09, 20 July 2014 (UTC)


 * I don't even know what "military chaff" is, but I saw someone mention the streamers, connected to the plane having a cargo including textiles. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:19, 20 July 2014 (UTC)


 * No, It seems to me the chaff is falling in the foreground while the smoke cloud is kilometers away. A lucky shot just got them both in the same picture. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 22:23, 20 July 2014 (UTC)

Andriy Parubiy again?
Pepe Escobar names Andriy Parubiy as a possible suspect.
 * It was Putin’s missile! – RT, July 19, 2014
 * ''Carlos’s assessment: the missile was fired by the Ukraine military under orders of the Ministry of Interior - NOT the Ministry of Defense. Security matters at the Ministry of the Interior happen to be under Andrey Paruby, who was closely working alongside US neo-cons and Banderastan neo-Nazis on Maidan.

-- Petri Krohn (talk) 02:16, 21 July 2014 (UTC)

SBU wiretap video

 * Щодо збитого літака (оновлено) – Ukrainian SBU
 * Ukraine Releases YouTube Clip "Proving" Rebels Shot Down Malaysian Flight MH-17
 * Sees strange July 16 timestamps on video, but as we know, YouTube stamps all videos 24 hours too early. One must use metadata interface to access upload time. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 13:14, 18 July 2014 (UTC)

We did it!

 * Mashable, July 17: Pro-Russian Rebel Commander: 'We Did Warn You — Do Not Fly in Our Sky' by Christopher Miller of Kyiv Post
 * Through his VK.com account, Russia’s version of Facebook, the self-proclaimed defense minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Igor Girkin — who goes by the nom de guerre Igor Strelkov — boasted about shooting down a plane.
 * "We did warn you — do not fly in our sky," he wrote.
 * Thinking it was a Ukrainian transport plane, Strelkov added that “a plane has just been downed somewhere around Torez, it lays there behind the 'Progress' mine,” referring to the mining town of some 80,000 people.
 * “And here is the video proving another 'bird' falling down,” he continued. “The bird went down behind a slagheap, not in a residential district. So no peaceful people were injured,” Strelkov wrote, adding that there is also information about a Ukrainian military plane shot down.
 * However, Strelkov deleted the post when he found out it was actually a commercial jetliner carrying 295 innocent people — not a military aircraft.


 * Mixed early questions: Did he really post that and delete it, or was it just made up? Did they really shoot it down and if so, why? Malaysia has extra bad luck with paggenger jets, doesn't it? --Caustic Logic (talk) 21:57, 17 July 2014 (UTC)
 * He didn't. See here. If they shot it down it was an accident - that plane shouldn't have been there in the first place. More information needed. Terrible event. --CE (talk) 02:36, 18 July 2014 (UTC)
 * Someone posted it. Strelkov is out in the fields. He has his a 9K35 Strela-10 but I do not think he has Facebook or even time to waste on social media. The way social media sites representing Strelkov or who ever operate, is they collect information from open sources and make their own synthesis. Some of Strelkov's comments come from video interviews or short video messages posted on Facebook. I do not think he writes anything. As for the relevance of the statement; someone saw a plane fall and thought it was a good thing. The announcement means nothing. We would have to hear it from the BUK operator. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 02:55, 18 July 2014 (UTC)
 * Excellent, thanks. Both saying the same thing - a "fan page" posted it, in a format they use for regular stuff, NOT stuff Strelkov says, and Miller reads that as Strellkov says, must know, deleted it himself, etc. Bogus. I left my thoughts at the forum too. Here's the main part though:
 * Possibly it could be some false-flaggers with their own appropriate missile launcher who snuck in, but presumably not, until there's some evidence presented. Most likely the separatists thought it was a legit (in their eyes) target and shot it down. 
 * The question for me will be in whether they were given some kind of extra reason to make that bad call, or if it was just their own dangerous ineptitude as it's being made out. Visually, if CE's graphic is correct, the new flight path sticks out as a possible clue - it just had to fly over that launcher that day, didn't it? I'd suggest keeping an eye on that and see if anything else starts to fall into place with it. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:59, 18 July 2014 (UTC)

Bloodless bodies – fake Facebook profiles?
From Voicesevas:
 * ''When reporters showed passports in turn, there were clearly visible to passenger data. Members of foreign forums are not lazy and had their own mini-investigation, during which it was found that people whose passports were shown to reporters, "really exist" - have their profiles in "Facebook". But - attention! - Profiles of these, quite seemingly independent people were registered at one time: 21-April-2013. These profiles are alike in that anything other than images downloaded daily check these pages do not.

Strelkov claims that most of the bodies seemed like they had been dead already before the crash: no blood or bleeding.

Putting all theories together à la Occam I get this: The plane suffered a pressure leak somewhere near Amsterdam, just like MH370. All the passengers and crew were killed from lack of oxigen. The plane flew east on autopilot and just by accident happened to fly over the BUK battery in Snezhnoye. This does not explain the fake FB profiles though. Maybe the plane that crashed in Snezhnoye was in fact MH370 that had been rehearsing for the false-flag mission all this time. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 15:13, 18 July 2014 (UTC)


 * Hm... I'd have to see that explained out before I could get this guy's back on this claim. Already I was thinking of an episode of the "V" re-make TV show where the visitors tricked the resistance into shooting down a shuttle full of innocents. But they were already dead, eaten, just skeletons with scrape marks on their bones. So, it sounds like a far-fetched TV show plot, if more realistic in that the bodies still have flesh, but ... who killed a planeload of people, or flew the plane? I guess remote control... they say Dr. Joep Lange of HIV research fame was one of the victims. Did someone snuff him out at the airport, or what?

The photo posted on Facebook by the alleged passenger Cor Pan at the gate is a hoax. The plane shown is 9M-MRC but the plane that left Amsterdam was 9M-MRD.

It seems however that the plane that crashed in Donetsk was 9M-MRO of MH370 fame! -- Petri Krohn (talk) 15:10, 23 July 2014 (UTC)

I would just like to point you towards Petri Krohn's website. This might give some insight into what you are dealing with here. 

Type of Warhead
The main page links offsite to an article about 'rod' damage to the aircraft.

The damage pattern is not 'rod' i.e. expanding rod - which is a linear set of damage in a single plane, often contiguous. Instead it's a typical shrapnel pattern, possibly slightly directional. This sets the type of warhead used and possibly even the missile type - assuming it was a BUK launcher. --Charles Wood (talk) 21:25, 28 July 2014 (UTC)