Talk:Attack on Red Crescent convoy in Urm al-Kubra

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As of now: --Resup (talk) 08:50, 20 September 2016 (UTC)
 * TASS, 20 Sept. 2016. US accusation, "most likely an airstrike, not by (US) coalition" is repeated, pointed out that UN could not confirm information on those killed "as was considered at that time, due to shelling". Apart from skeptical tone, no further comment provided in the article.
 * SANA. No comment on attack seen. Bogdanov visit and further fresh steps of solving crisis discussed
 * Joint press release of Red Cross/Crescent, around twenty civilians and Omar Barakat were killed, nothing about nature or origin of "horrific attack" --CE (talk) 12:18, 20 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Russia, Syria did not deliver strikes on UN aid convoy near Aleppo — ministry, TASS (Eng.)
 * '' "No airstrikes on the UN humanitarian convoy in the southwestern outskirt of Aleppo were carried out by the Russian or Syrian aviation," Konashenkov said. The Russian side did not monitor the movement of the UN truck convoy that came under attack near Aleppo after the humanitarian cargo was delivered to that city, he added.
 * Noted: From other comments made, it appears that Russian MoD finally watched White Helmets (nighttime) video, but not the morning photos; and can't see any munitions on White Helmets video. --Resup (talk) 14:01, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

"Anonymous US officials said"

 * BBC: But US officials, speaking in condition of anonymity, said two Russian SU-24 attack aircraft were in the sky above the convoy at the precise moment it was hit in Urum al-Kubra.
 * But that does not mean what they said is true. OK, there could be Russian planes in the sky; -and anywhere in the sky is ABOVE the convoy; and that could be for a period of time, possibly including strike time, because there was al Nusra attack on Aleppo and quite major fighting further east towards the city; so they might be checking it out. And one cannot say that a plane was directly above at strike time, because that 'moment of time' is like 7:30, +/- 10 minutes to half an hour, maybe; while it takes SU 24, flying at or above speed of sound, some 40 seconds to fly some 14 km to Aleppo front lines. And somebody who knows the strike time for sure, as well as where planes, if any, were at that very time, also knows who did it, without all this horseshit.
 * "There are no craters and the exterior of the vehicles do not have the kind of damage consistent with blasts caused by bombs dropped from the air," a statement from the defence ministry said.
 * Must be reading our page then? --Agreed. --Resup (talk) 00:48, 21 September 2016 (UTC)

What happened?
(After seeing nighttime video and immediate US accusations): Available evidence consists of videos and White Helmets story. Several destroyed trucks, fires still burning, no craters seen, some holes possibly from shrapnel but not for certain, and not a lot. There is a damaged passenger car clearly seen, but it could be damaged earlier. Content is thrown around but appears largely intact; possibly heating damage on packaging. Many ways to cause what is seen on video, some shelling (mortars/artillery/MLRS), staging, bombing from helicopter, or plane. Place, uncertain but building has distinct appearance and could be located. Time of attack, stated on the video, is 7:30 pm, Sept 19, 2016. --Resup (talk) 08:50, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

(After seeing some daytime photos/videos): clearly a quite substantial strike. Shrapnel damage, and fire damage. 4 twitter photos: photo 3, apparently an explosion at ground level, or possibly inside the cabin; no crater on the ground. Bent metal sheet on top appears to be by explosion outside; but also small part of roof is caved in a bit, making this tricky. Direct hit on top by aerial bomb will almost certainly obliterate the cabin, not slightly bent the roof in. Photo 4: small craters are seen mostly resembling mortar or MLRS, flying, apparently, left to right, but quite clearly not top to bottom. Elsewhere on this post, a collapsed wall. Getting tricky here. Thin wall, with some shrapnel damage (top right), and roof damaged, but like because the wall crashed down under it, not because roof is hit on the top; --but also not excluded that we do not see where it was hit, as it is gone now. --Resup (talk) 10:07, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

If there were planes in the area, that, with very high probability, should be known to Russian and US militaries, so if that's known why to play this hid and seek with some social media photos? Russian strike, in particular, does not seem to be likely as at this stage, they would be still obliged to coordinate with USA--Resup (talk) 10:24, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

Truck location likely negotiated long in advance and known to parties, and likely leaked to rebels. Hitting it intentionally does not seem very plausible. Provocation, knowing where they are too, is a possibility. --Resup (talk) 10:24, 20 September 2016 (UTC)


 * Rebels administered this whole area, had them stop and off-load here. The location would be known to that Russian drone and any Russians who mattered, and also to every terrorist with a mortar or rocket launcher in the area. But the terrorists and their supporters were clear it was a jet/helicopter/both, from Russia or Syria or both/whatever/not us. Uh-huh. Hell, they could have just raided the place, robbed and executed the aid workers, torched the trucks, and lobbed a few shells on it afterwards. Hypothetically. (BTW, any survivors? None that didn't pass through White Helmets and al-Nusra hands first.) --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:18, 20 September 2016 (UTC)


 * Visuals, First thoughts: I agree it's hard to make out any kind of craters Maybe just the trucks were all hit? The roadway seems weirdly smooth, like it was all re-graded overnight. (??) No barrel bomb fragments seen yet, nothing massively blown up as if by one, just light shrapnel like from a rocket all over, and everything burned. Firing directions could maybe be discerned. The location seems set - could double check more but most photos seem to be at the eastern location outside Urn al-Kubra. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:18, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

Was exact overnight location agreed?
Confusing info on whether exact route and truck location at that time was agreed in advance. Western sources say aid was "agreed" (overall) and "destination known" (but was the exact route too?). Russian MoD says they did not monitor the convoy after 13:40 and as as far as they are concerned only rebels knew where exactly it is. Assuming it is accurate, it will be difficult for them to find it at this time on purpose to "attack" it, losing track at 13:40. It is on their video, but they might be not keenly interested to actively monitor, once it is out of their responsibility, and in any case did not know what happened next. 7:30 pm is after sunset and before moon rise (20:34), so difficult to spot by eye (especially so when getting closer to 8 pm). Trucks were standing there since 2 pm and engines were off, cold; so won't be seen in infrared either. But planes or helicopters will be excellently seen, infrared and radar, to blame and shame. With all that, if exact overnight location was not agreed, that would point to rebel attack as most likely. --Resup (talk) 17:58, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

Background
Happened right after embarrassing 'error' by coalition in Deir ez Zor, furious accusations at the UN, and followed by lapse of ceasefire at 7 p.m. Broader background, recently concluded Kerry -Lavrov talks (said to be opposed by parts of US government, so many hours break was required by Kerry to negotiate with Washington), and followed by ceasefire near collapse on the ground. Russia accusing USA of not separating moderate and radical opposition and not reciprocating steps to demilitarize agreed areas, etc. Further, approaching UN session, likely last for this US administration, and elections in USA. With ceasefire collapsing, blame games to start. --Resup (talk) 08:50, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

Rebel motives?
The attack has all the hallmarks of a Nusra / StateDept false flag attack. There in no proof that any airplanes were involved. This could as well have been a Hell Cannon or GRADs. The rebel have every motive to attack the convoy. Why should "Syrian Christians" have aid, when they have just refused the UN aid convoys to enter east Aleppo? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:50, 20 September 2016 (UTC)
 * 1) The aid sent by the Syrian government via Red Crescent was meant for government supporters in besieged areas and minorites. (The White Helmets guy on video says "Syrian Chrisians".)
 * 2) The convoy entered rebel held areas during the ceasefire. It was attacked half an hour after the ceasefire ended and the Syrian and Russian air forces resumed airstrikes.
 * 3) Rebels and their civilian supporters have blocked UN aid from reaching east Aleppo.
 * 4) * The ceasefire agreement comes with strings attached. If no aid is delivered, there can be no ceasefire. If there is no ceasefire, there is no need to separate al-Nusra from the "moderate" rebels.
 * 5) Rebels have said they will end cooperation with UN aid agencies because the UN "supports the regime".
 * 6) During the ceasefire the rebels merged their command structures. All may now be commanded by ex-Nusra.
 * 7) The White Helmets, who were first seen on the site after the attack, could se the SARC as a competitor operating on their "turf".

Transit aspect
Rebel groups typically operate similar to gangs, having control on 'their' territory and receiving fees or other perks for transit. If there is a disagreement on any of that, 'something bad may happen'. In this case, a shipment coming from an enemy, to aid a Christian group, and arranged by enemies (crusaders/kafirs/takfirs/etc). Every motive for an attack, indeed. --Resup (talk) 12:36, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

Survivors?
Did anyone from the convoy survive? Has anyone returned to Aleppo? Did they tell what happened? Was this information made public? There were 30 trucks in the convoy meaning 30 drivers. Then or twelve of these were "burned to death". This means a 50 to 60% survival rate. Eight SARC crescent personnel - most likely wearing the distinctive red outfits - were killed. If they had the same survival rate, then another twelve should be alive. Or did all of the SACR people die?

The activist are astonishingly certain that the head of the Red Crescent in Aleppo, Omar Barakat was among those killed. It is as if someone had seen him die, without being affected by the "blast" himself. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 17:12, 20 September 2016 (UTC)
 * BBC has this detail: The head of the Syrian Arab Red Crescent's office in Urum was killed, dying of his injuries as he waited hours to be evacuated. --Resup (talk) 20:44, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

Indeed, why don't we see any bodies and/or White Helmets desperately trying to save them? --Resup (talk) 18:16, 20 September 2016 (UTC)