Talk:Civilian convoy 'shelled near Zaporizhzhia'





Location
Photos for geolocation:
 * https://twitter.com/tiahadovoli/status/1575731530147966977
 * https://twitter.com/lusi_dark/status/1575767870734094336/photo/1
 * https://twitter.com/alzp88/status/1575753560201265152

Location near the Kuznovi Detali auto parts store (unconfirmed) https://www.google.is/maps/@47.7875843,35.2720361,336m/data=!3m1!1e3 based on frontlines and reports. It lies to the east of the Komunarskyi District of the city. The Russian frontlines are some way to the south.

Orientation
The cars are lined up facing roughly eastwards (slightly to the south east)

Discussion
Provisionally, it appears that there was one large blast accounting for the carnage. The crater seems bigger than I might expect for a standard artillery shell. But according to a totally unverified search result: A conventional 152mm or 155mm artillery high explosive (HE) shell often produce a crater about 1.2-1.5 meters deep and 4-5 meters wide

Southfront claim a HIMARS was involved in a similar incident the previous day: ''On September 29, Ukrainian militants committed a similar crime in the area of Svatovo in the LPR. A convoy of refugees from Kupyansk was tracked down by Ukrainian drones and hit with the US-made HIMARS MLRS. At least 30 people were killed, including children.''

A line of debris from the explosion is seen running roughly parallel to the direction the cars face. Indicating, I think, that the shell came from the opposite direction. The road runs West to East (slightly East by South East). If that is right, the shell came from the west. --Diagonal (talk) 15:54, 30 September 2022 (UTC)

The pattern of debris looks consistent with a high trajectory artillery blast. There is minimal spray from the back side of the crater, the lower part in the picture - towards the west - the opposite direction to which the cars face. --Diagonal (talk) 20:48, 6 October 2022 (UTC)


 * Given the high accuracy of the single impact, it might be doubtful that it was fired from a standard artillery piece without prior rounds fired or any fire correction. Assuming that the shell or rocket probably being of unitary high explosive type, roughly equivalent in power to a standard US 155mm shell.


 * Himars can fire unitary high explosive warheads.eg
 * M31 is a so called GMLRS-U or "unitary" rocket with a single 90 kg High Explosive (HE) warhead. Warhead has 23 kg of explosive content. Range of fire is 65-70 km. Some sources report that maximum range is 92 km.
 * But that apparently carries more than double the weight of high explosive than a standard artillery shell.

--Diagonal (talk) 08:17, 7 October 2022 (UTC)


 * On general grounds, seems clear that it's done y Ukrainians. There have been multiple reports that they target civilians trying to go to Russia, mostly verbal reports. And here, with visuals. As for forensics, quite hard to be conclusive. Either a shell fired from nearby on high trajectory (impression from crater photo is probably 120mm mortar or 122 mm artillery  shell), or GMLRS (HIMARS), as it appears from the aerial top-down view. GMLRS may strike vertically top-down by design ([ video]). Newer warheads probably explode above ground, not on impact, which does not exclude a crater below, just smaller then the one with impact. I would think more damage will result from HIMARS strike than we do see. More ground excavation is to be expected in the direction of flight, with crater being as we see here, with impression that it is towards the cars, and also towards the bottom of photo in the aerial view. But photos give a view in perspective, or from high altitude with low resolution, which does not give a perfect depiction. As for targeting, GMLRS is guided and precise, and they have lots of missiles. Shells, less precise, but this may be strike from not afar, on high trajectory; and it need not be targeting this group of cars specifically. They could be firing shots when there were more cars in the area, those not hit then left; and they could be doing it many times, for days, until this event occurred. Also, with warfare for over 8 years, they should know there weapons well, and fire them quite precisely, especially if that was in direct view. --Resup (talk) 21:06, 7 October 2022 (UTC)


 * More photos of the crater might help. Also it appears that the impact was exactly where a feature (a tree) could be seen on the satellite map. Probably had been cleared before this.


 * If there is no inferred trajectory other than vertical, I would take that as implying the use of a more advanced and expensive system.--Diagonal (talk) 20:56, 10 October 2022 (UTC)


 * It is strange that the Ukrainians had stated a S-300, rather than regular munitions. Why would they do that? The cars show not much sign of being exposed to much fragmentation - which would, in my inexpert view, imply that the blast was not above ground.--Diagonal (talk) 21:42, 10 October 2022 (UTC)


 * One thing that makes it harder to figure is that there is no symmetry axes of the "footprint." Despite level round. That means that it entered having both "pitch" (almost vertically) and "yaw" angles (right/left). Textbook diagrams do not assume yaw, as I can tell. Now, in the print there is a sector where stuff was thrown "further", and a sector where it was thrown "heavier". including heavier excavation of crater walls. I would take the latter ("heavier") as direction of flight, and the former as to be result of yaw. Maybe, with such asymmetric , almost vertical entry into hard ground, distribution among sectors may vary, depending on entry angles and hardness parameters, but the above seems to me most likely overall Maybe those who fire shells for living would know better --Resup (talk) 05:05, 11 October 2022 (UTC)

S-300?


Shrapnel collected at the the scene, could be consistent with S-300. The Ukrainian side made the claim of use of an S-300 within only two or three hours of the strike. --Diagonal (talk) 15:48, 19 November 2022 (UTC)
 * There is not much sign of fragmentation, as you would expect from a regular shell, and the shrapnel does not match with what would be expected for a HIMARS, even with a unitary warhead. So this does look to be most likely an S-300. Which seems consistent with apparent near vertical impact trajectory and single blast. --Diagonal (talk) 10:32, 28 September 2023 (UTC)


 * Starukh 2 days prior, had made statement  of Russian's attacking the region with S-300s. It might seem more plausible that those were fallen Ukrainian air defence missiles, that had landed haphazardly, rather than targeted Russian strikes.
 * It is not known what was happening in the skies in the hour in question. But it would be a very improbable coincidence if the rocket had fallen accidentally --Diagonal (talk) 11:23, 28 September 2023 (UTC)

HIMARS?

 * New Types Of Ammunition Make Ukraine’s HIMARS Far Deadlier (Updated) - Forbes, october 5, 2022
 * The rockets launched by Ukraine’s HIMARS are the M31 Unitary Warhead, a 196-pound weapon “effective against critical point targets.” GPS-aided precision means the M31 can hit a specific target such as a building or ammunition dump, but its effects are concentrated in a narrow area. While the M31 does have a fragmentation sleeve which produces distinctive, diamond-shaped shrapnel (seen in fragments recovered here), it is not an area weapon.



Does not match the shrapnel said to be collected at the scene. --Diagonal (talk) 10:24, 28 September 2023 (UTC)

Crater photos and blast patterns