Talk:Crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17/BUK Tracking

Kiev's Holdings

 * From Russia's military press conference: RT, 10 Questions - in more detail
 * 3. Why was a large group of air defense systems deployed to the militia-held area if the self-defense forces have no planes?
 * “As far as we know, the Ukrainian military had three or four air defense battalions equipped with Buk-M1 SAM systems deployed in the vicinity of Donetsk on the day of the crash. This system is capable of hitting targets within the range of 35 km at the altitude of up to 22 km.”''
 * 4. Why did Kiev deploy BUK missile systems on the edge of militia-controlled zones directly before the tragedy?
 * “We have satellite photos of the places where Ukraine had its air defense units deployed in the southeastern parts of the country. The first three photos were made on July 14. The first photo shows Buk launchers 8 km northwest of Lugansk. You can clearly see a TELAR and two TELs. The second photo shows radars 5 km north of Donetsk. You can see two TARs along with other equipment and technical structures. The third photo shows air defense systems north of Donetsk. You can clearly see a TELAR launcher and about 60 military and auxiliary vehicles, tents for vehicles and other structures.


 * “Here’s a photo of the same area made on July 17. Please note that the launcher has disappeared. The fifth photo shows a battery of Buk missiles at the village of Zaroshchenskoye 50 km east of Donetsk and 8 km south of Shakhtyorsk on the morning of the same day. The sixth photo shows the same area on July 18. As you can see, the battery has left.”

Note: the latter photo has substantial cloud cover, but unless they happened to hid the launchers in those areas (or Russia's satellites waited until the area was covered) it appears the noted vehicles have left to go do something - on/by the 17th, where they say launchers appear and then disappear in a town closer to the crash on the 17th. Zaroshchenskoye on Yandex maps - 13 miles SSW of the crash sitel, 9 miles W-SW of Torez..--Caustic Logic (talk) 23:08, 29 July 2014 (UTC)

The base shown in the Russian satellite images (best seen here) I located - it's south of Avdeyevka, 3 km north of the airport, about 5 km north of Donetsk like they say. Visual match first, then noticed the label could have found it for me ... on Wikimapia. Labels, translated: Anti-aircraft missile battalion (in / h A-1428) One of the three anti-aircraft missile battalions ("Buk-M1"), located in Avdeyevka, Mariupol and Lugansk." BUK-type launcher photos included. Russia says these were moved out July 17 and reappeared a bit further east, and radar activity associated with their use spiked dramatically that day, and a bit the day before. They have evidence backing that up they say, and will hand it over. Hm! --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:08, 29 July 2014 (UTC)

The counter-arguments to this at least sometimes fail. Interpreter rag decided "the presence of Ukrainian government air defense systems is something of a red herring, not least given the clear evidence that the separatists had deployed at least one Buk system in the area. The side with a motive and clear, moving and likely operating units of the things on that day is irrelevant and shouldn't be considered because there's apparently also proof the presumed bad guys also had the units they needed to be so presumed. The very fact that separatists aren't ruled out means the other side should be free of any danger of being ruled in, and the separatists ruled in just as by default as they were before'' this social-media verification came in This is clearly an irresponsible suggestion. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:50, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

Separatist Holdings
While much certainty has been shown it was a separatist BUK system responsible, everyone seems to acknowledge that ordinarily, they didn't have any, that were known of. Fresh sighting of them in the field, supposed admissions, and existing presumptions remain the strongest evidence. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:43, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

The Open Newsroom team have latched onto a June 29 message from a Twitter account associated with the Donetsk People’s Republic, @DNRpress claiming separatist forces had conquered a base with anti-air BUK missiles. This is apparently the A-1402 base, as an Itar-Tass report specified. That report noted ... It seems to just cite the tweet which, it was found, used a dated photo online since mid-2013. In essence, there's no good evidence they ever did seize this place. But it was referred to by some as "Deleted DNR tweet confirming Russian rebels indeed have a BUK-M1." The crew at large seems a bit vague on the status of this base:
 * June 29 Seizure?
 *  It appears that the A-1402 military unit was moved into the Donetsk region in 2007 from Odessa, and reports note that the unit was based near Donetsk airport. Local reports from June 29 cited ATO spokesman Alexei Dmitrashkivsky as stating that separatists had attacked the military unit.

As we just found with geo-location, it's 3 km north of Donetsk airport, and it's the same place Russia believes is firmly government-held. It's the place they say at least one BUK-type launcher was removed from on July 17 for some reason, by Kiev's forces who run it. If this basic Wikipedia article on the battle for the airport is correct and/or in line with our page on it, the airport and anything military-related north of it would probably be government-held continuously to the present time. It's possible some launchers could have been lost during a brief seizure of the base, but this too seems doubtful. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:24, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

(more details forthcoming)

Imagery Mapping
There have been quite a number now of photos and videos showing BUK launchers ostensibly in separatist strongholds, on July 17. The geo-location of these in such towns by social media networks has been the subject of some recent media commentary. These purported placements are worth collecting and considering here. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:20, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

One somewhat comprehensive and updated/evolving page: How Social Sleuthing Uncovered Evidence of Surface-to-Air Missile Systems in Eastern Ukraine Inset is a small preview of the interactive map they made of all placed images (as it stands at the end of July - full-size presentation with links, on Google Maps) Note that one of them is way up in Lugansk - which one is a little unclear at the moment - the site may be wrong) --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:45, 31 July 2014 (UTC)


 * List of Scenes, placed or not
 * Billboard Video: released by Interior Ministry, filmed in Krasnodon before dawn, the Interior Minister says. Russian military analysis places it in  Krasnoarmeysk, and the Open Newsroom crew contradicts both and decided "collaborative geo-location was able to place the footage in southwestern Luhansk.''
 * Surveillance Video: located to Snizhne by Aliot Higgins, date unclear.
 * Pre-located video: geo-located by the uploader here in Zuhres. Higgins confirms, 100% sure, and others concur. Driving east.
 * Snizhne square photo - located by an associate of Higgins
 * Another photo placed (f/c)
 * Paris Match photo Probably not placed.

Billboard Video
(to be condensed) A video released by the Ukrainian Interior Ministry is highly dubious and worth some analysis. It shows what seems to be a BUK launcher loaded on a truck driving some direction in some town at what seems to be early twilight (or pre-dawn, depending). The original posting (with almost 2 million views already) gives no details: "Militants take out missile system "Buk" to the border with Russiam" the title translates. "No description available," it says below, and no comments allowed. From what I've seen no one knows where this is filmed. Daily Mail says it's a "separatist stronghold," unnamed, and headed south, back towards Russia. "Ukrainian spies reportedly filmed the launcher used in the attack being smuggled to Russia - with two missiles missing." Eliot Higgins was cited by the Guardian with his new team of fundraistigators as geolocating some video and photo but not, apparently, this one. As explained at the kickstarter link they give, Higgins writes:
 * In the above video, posted by the Ukranian Ministry for Interior claiming to show the Buk missile launcher being driven towards Russia it was possible to match the transporter in the video to the transporter in Torez, details of which... (you have to subsidize their operation to see)

Krasnoarmeysk
The only source venturing a guess is the Russian government and RT witrh their 10 intriguing questions:
 * “For example, media circulated a video supposedly showing a Buk system being moved from Ukraine to Russia. This is clearly a fabrication. This video was made in the town of Krasnoarmeisk, as evidenced by the billboard you see in the background, advertising a car dealership at 34 Dnepropetrovsk Street. Krasnoarmeysk has been controlled by the Ukrainian military since May 11.”

There is a sign, but I cannot make it out just yet, if ever. Can they really? Even if that's so, surrounding towns might be good places for a dealership in Krasnoarmeysk to advertise. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:07, 29 July 2014 (UTC)

At right now is a still from a video claiming to show this, I still don't see it. They seem to think the gray span says that, perhaps from seeing a clearer view of this ubiquitous sign elsewhere. Opps. There's no reason to say a dealership in one town can only have billboards in that town. This alone fails. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:05, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

on Google Maps as Krasnoarmiis'k - not to be confused with the Krasnoarmeisk not far away in Russia. Distance: about 100 km almost due west of the crash site. Panorama, possiblt location, directions/implications forthcoming. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:07, 29 July 2014 (UTC)


 * Dnepropetrovsk Street is the main street of Krasnoarmeisk, leading northwest to Dnepropetrovsk. It tried matching this to the street corner where the car dealership is located. Yandex Maps did not provide a street view. It could be there, but too few details to make a positive match. Whatever this is, it is not evidence for anything. The least the SBU could have done is provide the location and some corroborating photographs.
 * The same applies to all so called "evidence" provided by Ukraine and the US State Department. As far as I can tell it is only cut-and-paste of unrelated footage to illustrate the claims made. A perfect example of this illusion is the "satellite photos" of Russian artillery shelling Ukraine released on Sunday morning. A photo of Russian GRADs on some unidentifiable field was placed next to a satellite image with an arrow pointing "Here Be Monsters!" Purely illustrative and no proof. There is a difference between legerdemain Hocus Pocus and outright forgery. The Russian video presentation displayed screen capture recording from the ATC radar, usually stored for two weeks. For this to be a hoax, Russia would need to create a forged tape of the radar data. Highly unlikely, as the the claim of authenticity had support of the full authority and prestige of the Russian Armed Forces. If the US presentation turns out to be hoax, State Department will claim the photos were never meant to be evidence. Some internee was told to prepare a presentation using stock images for some facts they knew to be true – trust us! -- Petri Krohn (talk) 14:45, 29 July 2014 (UTC)
 * You must have missed this, Petri! ;oP --CE (talk) 18:08, 29 July 2014 (UTC)
 * That is an awesomely perfect picture for this sorry episode so far. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:36, 31 July 2014 (UTC)


 * It would be neat though if we could show where this is and thus which way its's headed. The Kiev authorities, I think, know what happened. They say it was this exact launcher missing two missiles. It could be. Where is it at filming time and where headed? If it's true this same one was in Torez (dubious but possible) we'd have a direction traveled until that point also, and a rough time, 8:30 or so. The Guardian again citing Storyful's open-source investigation:
 * “There are now four pieces of content – three pieces of video and one image – which, in the case of three, conclusively show a Buk [surface-to-air] missile within rebel-held territory and in the case of the fourth, almost definitely in their territory,” says Storyful executive editor David Clinch. “Of those four pieces, individual groups or companies probably verified in or around the same time one or another of them.”
 * Open Newsroom verified three pieces of content and is investigating the fourth, thanks to its 900-strong network of journalists and experts. ''
 * The fourth is this video. Wouldn't it be a coup if we were the first to place it? Force that intern excuse and then laugh at it. That said, it's not the most likely to place but you, Petri, especially, might be able to. I think I might. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:51, 29 July 2014 (UTC)


 * James Miller Google + July 21 "Was a Buk sighted in Krasnoarmeysk or Krasnodon (continued analysis)? We've taken a new look at this video which has been debated since it was posted days ago. We're fairly confident, though not 100% confident, in this geoanalysis, but we're making significant progress. Any more information would be extremely helpful. " Cited: Russia This Week: Defense Ministry Claim on Buk in Billboard Video Doesn’t Add Up
 * ...As we reported on our Ukraine Liveblog, the Buk was spotted before the shoot-down of the Malaysian airplane and ultimately geolocated to the town of Torez, near the location of the crash in Grabovo. Then the video, taken early the next morning on 18 July, showed a scene in Krasnodon, Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said in a Facebook post 18 July.

The content of that, Google-translated:
 * Covert surveillance units of MIA of Ukraine today July 18 at 4.50 am was recorded caterpillar tractor loaded with missile complex, moving in the direction through Krasnodon, toward the border with the Russian Federation. The video can be seen uncovered missiles. Two missiles in place - the average is not visible. 
 * There is an analysis of this and other information gathered. Presumably this is the missile system "Buk" that made a last shot at a civilian plane from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur .. 
 * Criminals try to hide the traces of this heinous crime. Not succeed. Security Service and Interior Ministry of Ukraine has collected and collects more irrefutable facts and evidence, the author points out the tragedy of the terrorist organization DNI / LC and its Russian backers Putin.
 * The investigation of events MIA issue a comprehensive report on the information. This fragment consider it necessary to publish immediately.

--Caustic Logic (talk) 13:09, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

Google Earth has one photo [http://www.panoramio.com/photo/55329278 from ул. Днепропетровская.] The street has about the same width. The streetlights are not quite the same. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 14:55, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

Placed in Lugansk!

 *  The footage is not the original, however we believe that the first instance of this footage was removed by the uploader and the version below is the earliest we can find. Ukrainian Interior Minister, Arsen Avakov, made early claims that the video was filmed in the Ukrainian town of Krasnodon near the Russian border, however collaborative geo-location was able to place the footage in southwestern Luhansk.

It links to "Bellingcat," which you have to pay to see much of. James Miller passes on that it's "Mystery SOLVED: Video released by Ukraine's Interior Ministry does in fact show a Buk, possibly missing several missiles, in Lugansk headed east from the MH17 crash site and in the direction of Russia.﻿" The spot they think matches the video (better panorama coming) is here on Google Maps. Was that a highway? Where's the cross-street? I see elsewhere they have a high view showing the same basic billboard there, but that's going to be true of several spots in this area. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:09, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

ACLOS Review
It seems to be filmed near the edge of town, or edge of a hill anyway, with a clear view ahead, two vague homes/buildings seen down the slope. Otherwise, very non-descript. The angle of intersection will be one of the better clues - it looks to me not 90 degrees ( |- ), but with the road the truck is on either slanting or curving somewhat towards the camera ( /- ). One important observation: there's no logical reason he should have been just happening to film this area unless he knew something interesting would drive by at just this odd time. That's clarified by how he zooms in just before it enters frame - he was waiting for that truck. How did he know about it? Informants on the other side of town phoning ahead makes enough sense, I suppose. Another issue: If this is dusk (sunset 8:20 PM local), isn't this facing roughly northwest? If so, this vehicle is driving roughly north, not south. And we might start looking on the west edge of town. There's a highway out to the northwest, back towards Kiev. This street is too narrow and unmarked to be the highway, obviously, but it might be driving that way, for example. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:41, 29 July 2014 (UTC)
 * Or, alternately, he's facing towards the sun about to rise, early on the 18th, as alleged by the Interior Ministry - see below) --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:20, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

Possible Launch Sites
A couple of locations have now been forwarded, based on compelling evidence, as likely SAM launch sites of July 17 or thereabouts. This is worth careful consideration here. To start:


 * On-the-ground Clues
 * UK Telegraph, July 22 This report with some detail and a photo visits a few areas where signs of possible BUK launcher movement and firing occurred recently. Caterpillar tracks, mostly light, signs of burning, various debris left behind, all or mostly "in the area of the town of Snizhnoye." These details might suggest whoever did this had multiple launchers set up in different areas that left as soon as the operation/accident was done.


 * Video-Based


 * Photo-Satellite-Based
 * Ukraine@War: Launch location detected of missile that brought down MH17 The photo at right, cited by Kiev as proof of a BUK launch in the right area, July 17. The anlysis here looks good on first blush and lines the filming to northern Torz, plume on a line including a supposed patch of cat tracks just revelaed by fresh Google/GeoEye images of some fields here by Snizhne. As traced, the tracks look realistic to me. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:55, 31 July 2014 (UTC)