Mina Hajj Tragedy, September 24, 2015

On September 24, 2015, hundreds of pilgrims were killed in an apparent stampede in the Saudi Arabian city of Mina, next to Mecca, during the annual Hajj (pilgrimage, required as a tenant of Islam). Saudi Arabian authorities quickly acknowledged an initial 717 killed, besides over 800 wounded in this contested incident, as pilgrims moved to perform the "stoning the devil" ritual. Iran claims well over 1,000 died, including at least 136 of its own citizens (besides hundreds missing), and blames Saudi Arabian ineptitude, or worse. Iran's political and civic leaders, many of whom are calling the incident a "massacre," are using the incident in their existing push for Mecca to be removed from Saudi royal family control and put under jurisdiction of the OIC (Organization of Islamic Cooperation). As one official put it, via Fars News, "the continuation of incidents like what happened in Mina today proves that Saudi government lacks the needed efficiency and qualification for running the most holy places of Muslim world."

Saudi Count

 * There were initial counts in the 400 range, quickly eclipsed
 * Initial large toll: 717 killed, 863 injured (Al-Jazeera)
 * 719 killed Associated Press
 * On the 26th the figures were raised to 769 dead, 934 injured. AFP report, via Times of India.

Iranian Count
Iranian sources for some reason have consistently cited much higher death tolls. One Fars News report has 1,200 killed and 2,000 injured, while another says the incident "killed more than 2,000 people and left 2,000 wounded" including 136 Iranians, with 150 others wounded. Press TV reported the apparent source; "the head of Iran’s Hajj and Pilgrimage Organization," Saeed Ohadi, "citing Saudi sources" announced that “Based on the latest announcement by Saudi Arabia’s officials, the number of those who were killed in the Mina incident is around 2,000." But the Saudis had not issued such a number. The total between dead and wounded - 1,580 - is the closest number they gave. (see also) The source of their smaller 1,200 death toll is unclear.

Iranian state TV said that besides those killed (136) and injured (85 at that point) "344 Iranians remain missing," including "Ghazanfar Roknabadi, a former ambassador to Lebanon, as well as two Iranian state TV reporters and a prominent political analyst," as Mashable reported on September 26. RFE/RL also reported the same day "Tehran says 136 Iranians were killed and 102 injured in the stampede and it also urged Saudi Arabia to find 344 Iranians it says are still unaccounted for."

By Nationality
At least early on, Saudi authorities were nor providing nationality breakdowns for the victims.One report cites "Saudi Arabia's civil defense directorate" with an early count of 310 dead "The directorate says the victims in Thursday's stampede are of different nationalities, without providing details."

But some nations issued their own reports on numbers dead, wounded, or missing. Iran is believed to easily top the list with 136+ killed and 300+ unaccounted for (see above). At least 22 from India died, later raised to 29, at least 13 more injured. 10 Pakistanis were killed, and 316 missing, later revised to 18 killed, and some 176 of the missing were "found," apparently okay.

Mainstream News

 * Iran blames Saudi Arabia for over 700 killed in hajj stampede AP via Fox News
 * Death toll rises to 719 AP via WRCBTV
 * The Saudi civil defense directorate says that as of late Thursday, the death toll from the horrific crush during the hajj pilgrimage stood at 719, but that the figure probably would rise as bodies continued to be counted and sent to the morgue.


 * In Iran, state television raised the death toll from among Iranian pilgrims, saying 131 were killed in the crush on the outskirts of Mecca.


 * RFE/RL Hajj Death Toll Rises As Saudi Cleric Says Stampede Beyond Human Control

Anti-Saudi Sources

 * Iran Summons Saudi Charge d'affairs Islamic Invitation Turkey
 * Hajj massacre shadows worldwide celebration Islamic Invitation Turkey
 * Exclusive video: stampede organized by Saudi slaughter regime Islamic Invitation Turkey
 * Amateur video has appeared online, apparently showing the moment when a deadly crush began in Saudi Arabia’s Mina as two streams of pilgrims were redirected through a single gate.
 * Iran’s Hajj and Pilgrimage Organization puts the death toll at more than 1,300.


 * The Caravan of King Salamn's son triggered stampede Islamic Invitation Turkey
 * Iran urges fact finding mission IITurkey: "(Vice president of Parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Commission Mansour Haghighatpour said) the committee should also consider the issues like intentional or unintentional nature of the incidents" and also be "directed in a way to introduce Mecca and Medina as free Islamic zones to provide comfort and security for all Muslims during the Hajj rituals.”
 * Iran's Prosecutor-General Wants Criminal Investigation into Hajj Stampede Fars News

Incident Analysis
ABC.net report cites a Sudanese pilgrim in Mina who "said this year's Hajj was the most poorly organised of four he had attended."
 * "People were already dehydrated and fainting" before the stampede, said the man, who declined to be named. People "were tripping all over each other", he said, adding that a Saudi companion had warned him that "something was going to happen".

Islamic Invitation Turkey shared a video allegedly of the incident along with this analysis:
 * As the gate opens, the Saudi security forces are seen forming a chain that limits even further the space for the pilgrims, who flood through the gate in panic with increasing speed, apparently triggering the crush.


 * People are then heard screaming as the massive flow of pilgrims through the gate continues, with the Saudi security forces on the ground only standing to direct the crowd to a single direction rather than allowing them to disperse more freely.

Here's a panoramic view of the gathered crowd, with prior direction perhaps mattering little as they've all come to a stand-still here, and the deadly bottleneck gate marked in green. There is some reason to doubt this is really the scene of the described mass casualty event (see talk page).

A consulted crowd control expert says he had repeatedly warned Saudi authorities to take all measures to prevent overcrowding there. had reported "Designer of Jamarat Bridge: I Had Warned Saudis against Overcrowding Route 204" (apparently pulled, perhaps due to an error) An archived snippet says
 * TEHRAN (FNA)- G. Keith Still, professor of crowd science at Manchester Metropolitan University who has worked with the Saudi authorities to design the Jamarat Bridge that leads to the pillars, revealed that he had many times warned the Saudi officials that route 204, where the Thursday stampede happened, shouldn’t be overcrowded.

The same expert spoke in this discussion afterwards. As summarized:
 * Crowd-control experts believe victims in the crowd were more likely to have died of compressive suffocation, rather than a "stampede." Abdullah Lotfy of Egypt told the Associated Press, "People were climbing over one another just to breathe... It was like a wave. You go forward and suddenly you go back."

Saudi Investigation and Blaming of Pilgrims
ABC.net King Salman has ordered "a revision of the plans" for Hajj organisation so that pilgrims can "carry out their rituals in complete safety", the official Saudi Press Agency said.

Being a theocracy, it may legally matter that on September 26, the kingdom's top religious leader Sheikh Abdul Aziz al-Sheikh advised King Salman, as RFE/RL reported:
 * "You are not responsible for what happened," Sheikh told Crown Prince and Interior Minister Muhammad bin Nayef bin Abdelaziz at a meeting in Mina, the city where the stampede occurred. “As for the things that humans cannot control, you are not blamed for them. Fate and destiny are inevitable," Sheikh told the prince.

There's no explanation offered yet how God managed to confine so many people in one fenced and policed area in 46-degree weather and then let them out only though one narrow gate. Others sympathetic to the royals find human error involved, but only on the part of the pilgrims;
 * A Saudi minister blamed the pilgrims for the tragedy and said they had not followed Hajj rules. "Many pilgrims move without respecting the timetables," health minister Khaled al-Falih said. "If the pilgrims had followed instructions, this type of accident could have been avoided."

Some pilgrims agreed;
 * "We are thankful to our brothers in Saudi Arabia for this effort," said Abdullah Ali, a 38-year-old Emirati, who blamed other pilgrims for the stampede and urged more awareness. "As you can see, people come from different backgrounds. They are affected by their cultures."

Other Hajj Tragedies
13 days earlier, on September 11, a massive construction crane collapsed at the Grand Mosque in Mecca during a storm, injuring well over 200 and killing at least 107 gathered in a part of the mosque. This included at least 8 Iranians, one of whom was one of the country's leading space scientists, leading to calls from Iranian lawmakers for the same pilgramage management shift they would advocate later. (Jerusalem Post, citing Fars news agency)

A Fars News English report includes a list of prior incidents back to the 1970s, many at this same bridge used in the "stoning the devil" ritual that turned deadly this year.