Talk:Russia invades Crimea

Five Russian BTR-80s?


Euronews, on March 1 shows footage of five about ten BTR-80 type armored personnel carriers on a road and stopped at a rest place somewhere in the area. The story makes no reference to Crimea, instead discussing the Duma authorization to use military force in Ukraine. The APCs carry clear Russian markings, so they cannot by definition be part of the "polite armed men in green" invasion force. It seems evident likely that this column was filmed somewhere in Russia, in the vicinity of Ukraine.
 * Russian upper house approves use of troops on Ukrainian soil – euronews, Mar 1, 2014

On the same day, ABC News reports: New Developments: Russian military moves in, convoys take control of Crimea. At 42 seconds in the video the same five APCs are shown. The newsreader declares in an agitated voice: ''They are unmistakable, Russian military vehicles. A convoy of Russian marines now operating on the roads of Ukraine's Crimea.'' The video is interesting. In the live part of the broadcast the ABC correspondet in Simferopol manages to place himself right in front of a march of civilians carrying a 100 foot Russian flag. Editorial policy (or StatedDept/CIA directives?) however overrules reality on the ground and the hoax invasion story must be broadcast.
 * March 2014 Breaking News Russian Troops Take Over Ukraine's Crimea Region Part 2 – ABC News, Mar 1, 2014

The same day, another broadcast ''Developing story: Russian troops invade Ukraine. Secretary of State John Kerry condemns Russia's actions'' has found even more footage of Russian tanks on Crimea. The footage shows Russian T-72 tanks operating in the snowy Crimean landscape. (Note the closeup of the tank tracks, ready to crush innocent Ukrainian babies!) At 1m 35s in the video there is another fabrication about the Occupation of the Kharkov administrative building. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 08:46, 22 March 2014 (UTC)
 * Russian Forces Officially Enter the Crimea Region of Ukraine – ABC News, Mar 2, 2014 (HD)

More BTR-80 movements
This video shows 7 BTR-80's on the move south forward Simferopol at 8.12 am on Feb 27th. They are parked by the roadside just north of this AZS gas station. (Dashcam video gives coordinates and time.)
 * Russian BTR-80 in Simferopol (Crimea)

BBC publishes a photo of the BTR-80s seen on the ABC video saying they are in Bakhchisarai, i.e. on the road beween Sevastopol and Simferopol. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 19:26, 23 March 2014 (UTC)
 * Ukraine crisis: Obama warns Russia against intervention – BBC, 1 March 2014
 * ''Russian armoured personnel carriers were seen near the town of Bakhchisarai, Crimea

Something happened

 * Some kind of attack on Crimea definitely happened yesterday – The Saker, MARCH 1, 2014
 * + 2 x Moon of Alabama
 * Татары ударили по Киеву (Tatars hit in Kiev) – Rashad_rus, 04/04/2014

Polite People

 * Masked Men in Crimea Not Russian Military, Russian Officials Tell Pentagon – Luis Martinez, ABC News, Mar 5, 2014
 * "Polite People" Ops in Crimea / Операция "Вежливые Люди" (video, 8 min)

Politics

 * A Fleeting Triumph? – Crimea Annexes Russia – BORIS KAGARLITSKY, APRIL 10, 2014
 * ''No, that’s not a mistake. On March 18, Crimea annexed Russia. There were no insidious schemes or imperial ambitions involved. There was, however, a spontaneously developing situation, together with the usual, everyday willingness of the Crimean bosses, who saw a unique chance in the Russian-Ukrainian crisis.
 * ''With the Ukrainian state on the brink of collapse after the flight of President Yanukovich from Kiev, the Kremlin authorities were understandably concerned to protect their interests and strengthen their position, but the most they counted on was turning Crimea into a second Trans-Dniestr enclave or Republic of Northern Cyprus – that is, into a de-facto Russian protectorate with formal independence. The presence in Crimea of “polite people” in green camouflage uniforms in no way prevented this scenario from playing out, any more than did the presence of NATO soldiers on the territory of the former Yugoslavia or of Turkish troops in Cyprus.
 * ''In Sevastopol and Simferopol, however, the authorities decided differently. Taking advantage of the confusion and disarray in Moscow and Kiev, the Crimean leaders drew up their own agenda. In the course of a few days they took several irreversible steps. The period before the referendum was cut to a minimum, so as to prevent both the Ukrainian and Russian authorities from getting their bearings. The Kremlin was presented with a gift it could not refuse. After having set the propaganda pendulum swinging, and amid a patriotic upsurge within Russia, our rulers were simply unable to say “no” when Crimea officially demanded unification with Russia. And so it happened.

Phantom invasion force?
My conclusion: If no one ever saw the force or heard about it, then no likely it never existed! -- Petri Krohn (talk) 07:49, 26 March 2014 (UTC)
 * U.S. Scurries to Shore Up Spying on Russia – WSJ, DAM ENTOUS, JULIAN E. BARNES and SIOBHAN GORMAN, March 24, 2014
 * ''But intelligence analysts were surprised because they hadn't intercepted any telltale communications where Russian leaders, military commanders or soldiers discussed plans to invade.[...]
 * ''Looking back, some U.S. officials now suspect Russia might have been trickling more highly trained units into Crimea in small numbers. But U.S. intelligence analysts didn't pick up any such indications before the takeover, officials briefed on the intelligence-gathering effort say.
 * ''[...]
 * ''Mr. Obama was told the operations could be launched with little warning.
 * ''But U.S. intelligence agencies didn't have corroborating evidence. Mr. Putin and other Russian leaders gave little away in internal communications picked up by the U.S. "We didn't have someone saying: 'Let's do this,' " one U.S. official recalls.
 * ''It isn't clear if Russian leaders deliberately avoided communicating about the invasion or simply found a way to do so without detection by the U.S. Another possibility: Mr. Putin made a last-minute decision to seize Crimea—and told almost no one other than those responsible for carrying out the invasion.
 * ''[...]
 * ''Inside Crimea, Russian troops exercised what U.S. officials describe as extraordinary discipline in their radio and cellphone communications. Remarks that were intercepted by U.S. spy agencies revealed no hint of the plans.
 * ''On Feb. 27, Mr. Pyatt sent an urgent note to Washington. A picture attached to his note showed Russian flags flying at Crimea's parliament building. U.S. officials didn't know if the forces that seized the building were Russian or a rogue unit of the Ukrainian police force involved in the crackdown on protesters in Kiev.
 * ''[...]
 * ''If Mr. Putin decided to launch a takeover, many U.S. intelligence analysts thought he would use troops participating in the military exercises. Officials now say they underestimated the quality of Russian forces inside Crimea.


 * WSJ: Россия скрыла от США подготовку операции в Крыму (WSJ: Russia hid from U.S. training operations in the Crimea) – Sergey Smirnov, Vedomosti.ru, 24.03.2014
 * Cites Wall Street Journal.


 * Has Russia Figured Out How to Evade U.S. Counterintelligence Operations? Why the Crimean Invasion Has Washington Worried – Blaze, March 24, 2014, Becket Adams


 * Analysis: Crimea intervention - The increasing sophistication of Russia's military resurgence – Tim Ripley, IHS Jane's Defence Weekly, 26 March 2014
 * ''Unlike previous interventions in Afghanistan in the Soviet era, or Chechnya and Georgia more recently, where Russian commanders relied on mass employment of tanks and artillery, the Crimea intervention featured fewer than 10,000 assault troops lined up against 16,000 Ukrainian military personnel...
 * ''Once Russian troops had moved to blockade Ukrainian military personnel in their bases, psychological warfare, internet/media propaganda, intimidation, and bribery were their main weapons to undermine their opponents' will to resist, rather than overwhelming firepower. Russian troops also displayed considerably discipline and patience during this phase. In addition, they appeared well equipped, boasting new personnel equipment, body armour, and light wheeled armoured vehicles.


 * U.S. Spy Agencies Can’t Get in Putin’s Head, Rogers Says – Derek Wallbank, Bloomberg, Apr 5, 2014
 * ''Rogers said lawmakers on his panel are reviewing Defense Department and CIA reports issued before the Crimea takeover -- “one of them got it completely wrong; one at least laid out the scenario” -- to find out what was missed.

Phantom army build-up?
Going with the Crimea "invasion" story are stories of the allegedly huge military build-up on the Russian side of the border. It seems those allegations aren't particularly airtight as well. Depending on the development, this could use its own page, but as it is closely related to the Crimea "invasion" and part of the same hysteria, it'll fit here for the moment. --CE (talk) 16:55, 29 March 2014 (UTC)


 * West ignores results of int’l missions that found no troop build-up near Ukraine borders – Moscow, RT, Mar 28, 2014
 * In the past few days, Western media has extensively reported that Russia is positioning its troops in Crimea and along the Ukrainian border. Some of the major news outlets speculated that Russian troops “appeared to be concealing their positions, trying to cloak their equipment, and establishing supply lines.” Responding to those accusations, Russia’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement, in which it recalled four probes in March by foreign missions in Russia of regions bordering Ukraine.  The ministry said that “even Ukrainian inspectors” agreed that “there were no major military activities being carried out.”


 * Lukashevich issues official comment on military situation on Russian-Ukrainian border, full aforementioned Foreign Ministry statement reprinted by ITAR-TASS, March 28, 2014


 * Ukraine crisis: the border hunt for Vladimir Putin’s hidden army, The Telegraph, Mar 28, 2014
 * In a 200 mile trip along the border region, the only Russian armour on display in this flat landscape was of a much older vintage, and stood on plinths in town squares.


 * Russian Buildup Stokes Worries – ADAM ENTOUS and JULIAN E. BARNES CONNECT, WSJ, March 28, 2014
 * ''Pentagon Alarmed as Troops Mass Near Ukraine Border


 * Few Signs of War Plans in Russian Border Town, Andrew Roth, NYT, March 28, 2014
 * Yet at least overtly, the military presence is invisible.


 * Tour of Ukraine-Russia Border Finds No Signs of Military Buildup, Jim Maceda, NBC, March 30, 2014


 * Why Russia may not be poised to roll into Ukraine after all – Fred Weir, CSM, March 31, 2014


 * Russia's Special Ops Invasion of Ukraine Has Begun – Eli Lake, Anna Nemtsova, The Daily Beast, March 15, 2014

Occupation propaganda
Western sources that try to portray the evens as a military invasion and occupation
 * In Pictures, Russia's Military Occupation of Crimea – EVGENY FELDMAN, March 22, 2014
 * Thousands of Crimean refugees flee to mainland to escape Russia – Daryna Shevchenko, Kyivpost, March 28, 2014
 * ''As Russian troops invaded on Feb. 27, many people fled, with the flow increasing after a March 16 Kremlin-orchestrated referendum was held to ratify Russia’s seizure of Ukrainian territory.
 * Interesting. I thought the "invasion" happened on March 1st. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 18:02, 28 March 2014 (UTC)

Occupation rebuttals

 * Ukraine: Western lies as truth, Russian truth as propaganda – Viselav Simic – VoR, 12 March, 2014


 * Ukraine: More Thoughts and Comments – MoA, March 03, 2014
 * ''There are claims that there was a Russian "invasion" of the Crimea. I have yet to see any evidence that there are more Russian troops, other than those regularly stationed on the Crimea, involved. Sure the Kiev coup-government claimed that dozens of huge Russian transport planes landed but how come that there is not even one picture of them available? To me it seems that the troops usually stationed on Crimea, which include various Marine infantry and Marine special forces units ,who obviously also have the support of the population are quite sufficient to secure the island. No shots were fired and the Russian navy, one might argue, is simply securing the larger perimeters of its bases.

Ukrainian forces
The number of Ukrainian forces (18,000) on Crimea was greater than the number of Russian forces (15,000). It is claimed that 3000 troops have elected to return to Ukraine while the rest have joined the Russian military or chosen to stay on the Crimea.
 * 800 Ukrainian Servicemen Have Departed Crimea – Crimean Source – RIA Novosti, April 2, 2014
 * Ukrainian troops defect to Russian army in thousands – Al Alam, April 04, 2014

The Ukrainians were in possession of a large amount of heavy armor. (I have seen none of this on the Russian side.) The Russians are now loading this armor on trains and sending it to mainland Ukraine.
 * Россия передает Украине крымскую технику – 1 April, 2014
 * Мста-с в Брянске по пути на Украину 26.03.2014
 * Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers in Crimea apply for Russian citizenship – VoR, 4 April 2014
 * ''The majority of Ukrainian soldiers willing to continue serving in the Armed Forces of Ukraine have left Crimea leaving behind some 400 people responsible for combat equipment withdrawal.

It is likely, that if the Ukrainians forces had wanted to resist, they would have been superior to Russian land forces on Crimea, even if the local population had sided with the Russians. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 14:32, 3 April 2014 (UTC)

Provocateur sniper incident
Provocateur sniper in Simferopol in Crimea today:
 * Conflicting reports over shooting near military research center in Crimean capital – RT, March 18, 2014
 * ''The Kryminform news agency, citing an unnamed local police source, reports shooting came from a house under construction opposite the center and targeted Crimean self-defense units as well the military center itself.
 * ''“Earlier today self-defense units were informed that a group of armed men had been discovered in a partially inhabited building,” a source from the ministry said. “As they were taking measures to check, self-defense units came under fire. One man was killed, one wounded,” the source explained, adding that shooting came “in two directions from one spot”.

-- Petri Krohn (talk) 20:02, 18 March 2014 (UTC)
 * Russia's Crimea plan detailed, secret and successful – John Simpson, BBC, 19 March 2014
 * "And until Tuesday 18 March, when a group of pro-Russian gunmen attacked a small Ukrainian army base in Simferopol, killing one officer and injuring another, it was entirely bloodless."
 * Wasn't this the provocateur sniper from Lvov?


 * Sniper that killed two seized in Crimea – 19 March 2014
 * Provocations- Crimean sniper fire updated- UN Security council to meet – Penny, March 19, 2014
 * NATO’s “Mystery Gunmen” Seek to Strengthen Kiev Regime’s Hand – Tony Cartalucci, 20.03.2014
 * Natalia Poklonskaya's briefing about assasinations in Simferopol with english subtitles – March 19, 2014