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Recent updates

May, 2016
18.5 UAF fired 216 mortar shells on northern Donetsk, Yasinovataya checkpoint and Dokuchaevsk-DAN news.

No real progress in Minsk. Political subgroup failed to meet today, as Ukrainian representative left the meeting and it is said that he resigned.

17.5 Nuland arrived to Russia for talks, May 17-18. Situation in Ukraine and bilateral ties are said to be on agenda-RIA 14.5 UAF fired over 170 mortar shells on 'Sakhanka village in the south, Novoazovsk region. Fire came from Ukrainian positions near Shirokino. Donetsk airport area and Spartak, north of Donetsk, were shelled too.

Pushilin: DPR will propose to extend Easter ceasefire (despite that it was not really a ceasefire; shelling was just slightly down. Any chance to have a real ceasefire?)

Ukraine's Jamala wins Eurovision 2016; Russia is third, UK is 24th  out of 26. (Some 'patriotic' commentary in Russia voiced preference for Russia loosing out, for Russia's song being disconnected from the national roots).

13.5 UAF shelled DPR over 800 times for the past week. 4 DPR soldiers were killed, another 4 wounded.

9.5 UAF shelled  DPR over 160 times in one day. A terrorist act was prevented in Donetsk; it was planned by Ukrainian sabotage group for May 9 Victory day celebrations.
 * Mother and girl wearing St. George bands were attacked by military-fatigued men in Kiev. They dispersed when this started to draw attention. Photos of the incident appeared in Russian media and draw attention and condemnation. One of the attackers turned out to be a as a Nazi sympathizer.

7.5 One DPR soldier was killed, another wounded as a result of shelling by UAF-DAN news

Geofrey Pyatt is to be shipped to Greece (kathimerini.gr), (uatoday.tv) said to be  replaced by a Russian-speaking, Serbian-origin  Mary Yovanovitch. So far so good... (This is as if somebody is trying to finally fix the Ukrainian mess --'as if' ).

4.5 Zakarchenko 'direct line' question-answer session with people of Odessa and Bessarabia -transcript (Russ.)

3.5 DPR was shelled 48 times in the past day, less than before, but not peace, clearly. That happened many times in the past, going back to old levels after awhile. More needs to be done.

2.5 Second year anniversary of Odessa massacre.
 * Photos, May 2, 2014-RIA

1.5

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5U0dZ6Bh7FM
 * May 1, together with Easter, celebrations in Donetsk. More photos from Donetsk and Luhansk. (Feels like  pre-Gorbachev USSR a bit).
 * Shelling continued in usual hot spots, despite promised ceasefire, Easter, and traditional holidays -Basurin video, English subs . Two DPR soldiers were killed.

April, 2016
30.4 Contact Group agrees full ceasefire in Donbass starting April 30 midnight — OSCE. This is on the eve of Christian Orthodox Easter.

Poroshenko unexpectedly fired a number of odious persons known for their uncompromising positions on Donbas. Those lost their posts are: Governor of Luhansk region Georgi Tuck (replaced by Yurii Garbuz, whose first comments appeared pro-peace), a member of the Minsk contact group Roman Bessmertnyi (who was against Donbas elections in the near future, and had other differences with Poroshenko), the head of Foreign Intelligence Service Viktor Gvozd' (no explanation was provided),  and Adviser to the President Yury Biryukov. Poroshenko decrees on those and other changes appeared on his website (news appear in all languages but official decrees only in Ukrainian). 29.4 Thirteen people were killed, and thirteen wounded in DPR in one week, according to DPR ombudsman

UAF shelled DPR 1741 times in the past week-DAN news

According to Zakharchenko, a planned attempt on his life by a Ukrainian group, said to be SBU, was prevented by DPR security -RIA. Zakharchenko announcement- video. At the end of the video, announces criminal cases against Poroshenko, Yatseniuk, Turchinov, for crimes (lit. развязывание войны -starting a war-Russ.) in Donbas'. One of captured perpetrators goes on camera to tell the story, says he was recruited by SBU (report and video). 28.4 OSCE chief monitor reports to OSCE council, has a press conference in Vienna.
 * ''Ambassador Apakan said that in the past weeks, the SMM has registered the highest number of ceasefire violations in months, while many weapons that were previously at permanent storage sites and holding areas are now back in use at the contact line.

27.4 Ukrainian army shelled a checkpoint near Yelenovka (Olenivka-Ukr.), at about 2.40 am today. Civilian cars were in a queue before a checkpoint, and one of the cars was completely destroyed. Five civilians, including a pregnant woman, were killed, and over 10 civilians were wounded, according to Basurin. 120 and 82 mm mortars were used. According to residents, they heard 4 shells exploding, coming from nearby, Khimki or Taramchuk. OSCE and Zakharchenko arrived to the scene. Grisly photos appeared from the scene. DPR named UAF commanders which, according to them, were responsible.
 * Zakharchenko puts this incident in the overall context of Ukraine not interested in peace, not fulfilling Minsk agreements, criticized OSCE for closing their eyes and doing too little to change the situation, calls OSCE to make a principled stand and unequivocally condemn Ukraine in this instance.
 * Longer video, two cars hit, one of them destroyed, craters, shrapnel, OSCE on the scene
 * OSCE SMM report: shelling from Ukrainian side.
 * ''The SMM conducted analysis on the two craters – and on two others in nearby residential areas. Based on that, the SMM assessed that the direction of fire was west-south-west, and that the type of weapon used in the attack was likely 122mm artillery.


 * According to DoNi news, a hospital (800 meters north) was also hit, but OSCE report failed to mention this.
 * '' one of the heavy shells, fired from Ukrainian positions, has clearly exploded in the territory of the local Yelenovka hospital and ... OSCE didn't mention that in their latest report: "Further north on Moskovskaya Street, the SMM observed some slightly damaged residences and demolished outhouses," writes OSCE in their report about shelling of Yelenovka village without mentioning, that this location is far away (+800 meters) from another shelled location near the DPR checkpoint, which caused 16 victims.

26.4 Victoria Nuland met with Ukrainian parliamentary factions, insisted that Minsk agreements should be followed through by the end of 2016, both security and political parts -Samopomosh faction report (Engl)

Rusvesna: documents appeared on Internet suggesting that in the first week of April Ukraine started planning evacuation of children in anticipation of 'an active phase of ATO' from a number of settlements near Mariupol. It is interpreted as possible preparation for an attack.

24.4 Five Ukrainian 152 mm self-propelled artillery units were spotted in Pervomaiskii (Yasinivataya region, 10 km from separation line). Such equipment is supposed to be over 25 km from the separation line, and this adds to numerous previous violations. three "Ural' trucks with amunition were spotted nearby. Also in the report, Ukrainian military are using 'pioneer camp' (built for children) as their base in Ukrainian -held Artemovsk, and install land mines around camp perimeter. It is implied that they are not supposed to convert civilian-use facilities for military use and endanger civilians.
 * According to Minsk agreements, for artillery over 100 mm allowed separation is at least 50 km, 25 km on each side
 * Situation report, DNI news (English).

23.4 DPR was shelled 296 times in the past day-Basurin. One DPR soldier was killed.

One "Grad" was spotted 1 km from the separation line near Avdeevka. Armored vehicles (18 tanks, 15 BMP, 15 BTR, 14 motorized armored transporters) were spotted in settlements Pravdovka (18.5 kilometers from the front line), Dobrovolie (24 km), the Rybinsk (19 km), Krasnogorovka (3 km) Marinka (1 km) and Elizavetovka (18 km from the line of contact)- situation report (English).

22.4 Past week: DPR was shelled 1900 times - Basurin; one civilian was killed, 3 wounded. 8 DPR soldiers were killed.

21.4 Three houses in northern Gorlovka burned down completely as a result of Ukrainian shelling

Zakharchenko interview (Rus) Very briefly, initial hope was to have similar to Crimea peaceful transition, however their fate turned out to be different, and they accept it. Hoping one day they will become a part of one big country. Discusses peaceful developments and warfare. Opolchenie, formed by grown-up adults, is different from youngsters drafted to army, but time of free roaming commanders is over, no 'Makhno'-like groups any more. Discusses economy (coal, mineral resources, agriculture, fish farming, etc). Raises the issue of Ukraine taking over grey zones, and nobody to tell Poroshenko not to. Tells that Ukraine constantly tests, challenges  their defenses, and that "American drones, taking off from Italy, are over our cities for a reason".

20.4 Situation report-DNI news (English)

OSCE: we record up to 4700 ceasefire violations per day in Donbas -TASS (Rus.)

DPR delegation in Minsk reported (English) three fold increase of shelling violations in the first quarter of this year. Occasionally heavy weapons were used.

Zakharchenko had a 'direct line' question-answer session with residents of Kharkov region of Ukraine (Kiev-controlled but with historic and cultural ties with Novorossia; and a tank producing region for 'ATO' operation, on the other hand). Mixed bag of questions, some critical, some supportive, all handled quite calmly and well. (English translation)

Prior to the press conference, SBU set up a fake web page trying to get information on pro-Russian citizen. The plot was exposed due to early bragging by SBU press center on this operation success, according to Rusvesna, DNI news (Engl)

EU proposed to establish visa free travel for Ukraine for up to 90 days and without right to work; still needs to go through approval process (TASS).
 * Echo Moskvy commentary: (brief translation: FCUK!--Russ.)

19.4 Shelling continues, Gorlovka and Donetsk were under fire from tank guns and mortars. Two houses in Gorlovka burned down, 15 were damaged.

18.4 Captured Russians, Yerofeev and Alexandrov, were sentenced to 14 years in prison, with confiscation of property, by Ukrainian court in Kiev, on charges which include 'terrorism' and other alleged crimes BBC, TASS. There was always a talk on an exchange which include Savchenko and those two Russians. Decision on such an exchange is in the hands of Putin (whose standing on this matter is not known), and Poroshenko, who in the past expressed support for such an exchange.
 * Putin and Proshenko discussed situation in South Eastern Ukraine, as well as Savchenko, Yerofeev and Alexandrov matter. Ukrainian consul is to visit Savchenko is the near future. TASS, 18 April, 2016 22 :14 UTC +3

Putin-Obama phone call, Ukraine and Syria discussed - Kremlin transcript, White House readout. On Ukraine, similarly to previous such conversations, Russia expressed hope that new Ukrainian government will finally take steps to implement Minsk agreements, while "President Obama urged President Putin to take steps to end the significant uptick in fighting in eastern Ukraine and stressed the urgent importance of moving forward with full implementation of the Minsk agreements" (and that's about all in the US transcript on the Ukraine matter). Those disconnected transcripts are not exactly reassuring that any progress  is taking place or that there is any convergence of positions. If there is any, it is not seen in the transcripts, and in any case, what matters is that any such progress ought to be seen on the ground.

14.4 Following Yatsenuk's resignation, the Rada elects Poroshenko crony Volodymyr Groysman as new prime minister. As his successor as speaker of the parliament, the Rada elects with a great majority of 284 votes the infamous right-wing extremist and paramilitary leader Andrij Parubiy.

At Putin press conference, a question was asked, since Minsk 2 agreements are not fulfilled, what the future for Donbas will be? Does it mean war? (video;full transcript- В.Кораблёва question ). The response (briefly, no) was that there is no alternative to Minsk agreements in resolving the conflict. Importance of solving political issues first was stressed, including constitutional amendments, special status for Donbas, amnesty. Those items were not fulfilled by Kiev, and security situation (provoked by Ukraine, but anyway) should not be used as an excuse to stall political steps. Repeated call to the West to use their influence in Kiev, instead of blaming Moscow. Putin stated that he 'assumes' that there will be no active fighting; described and supported Poroshenko proposal for greater role of OSCE, including presence of armed OSCE observers on separation line.
 * 'Patriotic' commentary about this long press conference as a whole, from Strelkov sort of crowd, was kind of mild disappointment. It was viewed as quite weak, -but no real alternative, apart from general gloom, was offered.

12.4 DoNI news video report, Ukraine shelled Zaitsevo just 5 mins after OSCE head visits the place
 * In the follow-up video, DoNi recorded shelling which started after OSCE left, and obtained interviews from a DPR soldier and a Red Cross worker, all confirming the same story (according to soldier, he was there, and firing was started by Ukraine, initially aimed in their own direction in order to blame DPR. Small arms, and increasingly heavier weapons up to BMP were used). DoNi raised the issue with OSCE at a press conference, pointing out that shelling started while OSCE cars were leaving the scene, and with another OSCE team present on the other side, but it did not appear in OSCE report (13 April). However Alexander Hug (OSCE) reply was that they do not include information where it cannot be determined which way the shells went and who is to blame.

10.4 Photo, videos report from Avdeevka, recent flash point. Fierce fighting continues in industrial zone in Avdeevka, supposedly a neutral zone, opposing positions there may be some 50 -70 meters apart. There are losses on both sides. Videos provide quite a good idea what's going on.

Yatseniuk decided to resign, to be voted in Rada on April 12-. Text is Ukrainian and English (lower) on his Facebook page. Groysman is nominated as replacement by Poroshenko block in Rada, he says. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vp2A7OOIXtg

UAF is shelling Kirovskii region of Donetsk, two DPR soldiers were killed. It is reported that Yasinovataia checkpoint was shelled from 122 mm artillery by UAF.

9.4 DPR: 'Tens of thousands' people gathered for a rally on the occasion of the second anniversary of the proclamation of the Republic

Shelling continues, 96 mortar shells were fired by UAF on Donetsk and Gorlovka. One opolchenie fighter was killed by sniper fire; two civilians were wounded (shelling and machine gun fire).

8.4 Fighting in the neutral Avdeevka industrial zone, Right Sector has losses in wounded and 1 killed according to Ukrainian postings on social media. A day before, Turchinov and Poltorak visited Avdeevka, accompanied by OSCE and JCCC; there were no violations during their visit, but Ukraine resumed shelling as soon as they left.

Comment of DPR Foreign Minister on report of European Parliament deputies, DNI News (in English).

Givi lightly wounded at a checkpoint, was there with civilians

7.4 Three DPR soldiers were killed, 5 wounded. UAF shelled 'Volvo Center' near Donetsk airport from heavy mortars. Also Donetsk air terminal and northern suburbs of Gorlovka were shelled- DAN news.
 * Evening update: shelling continues, and as a result two residential houses in Donetsk suburb burned down

Netherlands rejects EU-Ukraine partnership deal, BBC
 * ''Turnout was low, 32.2%, but above the 30% threshold for the vote to be valid. The deal was rejected by 61.1% of votes, compared with 38.1% in favour. Prime Minister Mark Rutte said the government may have to reconsider the deal, although the vote is not binding.

Regional council of Transcarpathian (Zakarpattia) region of Ukraine appealed to Poroshenko to give the region self-governance, as was decided in a referendum held in 1991. The appeal cites dire economic situation and promises of Maidan not fulfilled. It was further explained that they meant 'decentralization', not 'autonomy' or separation.

6.4 Assassination attempt on Givi. In Makeevka, Krasnovardeiskii region, an IED device exploded near his car. Givi was not hurt, the car was damaged. Second attempt on Givi, both in Makeevka.

Six houses were damaged by UAF mortar shelling in Zaitsevo, near Gorlovka. Sahanka, Shirokino in the South were shelled too, damage is being assessed.

5.4 Donetsk was shelled from mortars and BMP, Sahanka village in the south was shelled from mortars,  Yasinovatya checkpoint was shelled from a tank gun, Gorlovka suburbs were shelled  from tank guns

4.4 In the evening Gorlovka was [http://dan-news.info/defence/ukrainskie-siloviki-vecherom-obstrelyali-prigorod-gorlovki-povrezhdeno-zdanie-shkoly-istochnik.html shelled by UAF, a school was damaged.

In the past day, DPR was shelled 125 times. 82 and 120 mm mortars, BMP, BTR, grenade launchers, small firearms were used. One DPR soldier was killed.

DPR coal-mining enterprises in March 2016 raised to the surface more than a million tons of "black gold". This was reported today by the press service of the Ministry of Coal and Energy.

3.4 DPR was shelled 170 times in the past day

Poroshenko demanded that a new coalition and government is formed on the first Rada session, threatening to 'disband the parliament', i.e call early Rada elections, if that is not the case. 2.4 Donetsk and Gorlovka shelled overnight. Also Sahanka, Novoazovsk region, in DPR south, was shelled

LPR was shelled by 'GRAD' MLRS, at least 10 Grad missiles were fired on Pervomaisk from the direction of village Boguslavskoe.

Commander of 3 DPR infantry brigade, call name 'Batia' (Daddy) was killed in action near Gorlovka. Before the war he was a miner in Shaktersk. He joined opolchenie under Strelkov in Slaviansk. Survived by a daughter.

1.4 According to Basurin, in the past day DPR was shelled 547 times by UAF. Most intensive shelling, and using weapons violating  Minsk agreement, was in Gorlovka and its suburbs Zaitsevo and Golmovskii; in settlements of Spartak, Zhabichevo, Veseloe; in the vicinity of Donetsk Airport, and in towns Dokuchaevsk and Yasinovatai. Basurin: "It was done on criminal orders of commander of 93 brigade Klochkov, commander of 56 brigade Melnikov, commander of 72 brigade Sokolov, commander of 57 brigade Krasilnikov, commander of 58 brigade Zabolotnyi, and under full connivance of Ukrainian side representative in the JCCC (Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination) general Taran."
 * Donetsk People's Republic of the Ministry of Defense announced the next part of the dossier on commanders of Ukrainian troops involved in war crimes in  Donbass; detailed power point file, as well previous two parts of the report are linked in this latest announcement.

Zakharchenko: threat of resumption of military hostilities increased due to provocations by UAF.

ATO volunteer announced on her Facebook page that an Ukrainian fighter nicknamed 'Godzilla' was killed by a mortar round explosion in Zaitsevo, near Gorlovka- Rusvesna reports.

Photos, videos, letters, on Cassad blog

Documenting Incidents, Human Rights violations

 * Interactive map of human rights violations, human rights NCO organization 'Just Defense' based in Moscow in partnership with Ombudsman-DPR vkontakte (vk.com) Ombudsman-DPR -Daria Morozova  (announcement video).

Analysis

 * Why They Are Killing Donbass? Novorossia TV with English subs. Blames consumerism, has very interesting cultural observations and quotations (incl late acad. Vladimir Arnold at 21:23 on educational reasons).

Blaming Ukraine
Gennady Korban (Kolomoiskii team) "ATO operation handling was a failure" ru.tsn.ua 'Korban made statements about corruption [...] and failed ATO handling'. Previously, criticized using heavy weapons in Donbass and suggested that at most police action is appropriate.

Blaming Russia

 * '(...) Lies about Ukraine', -Boris Nemtsov, Leonid Martyniuk-blames Russian Government (based on inaccurate or later reversed statements made at the official level).

Blaming the USA

 * Paul Craig Roberts ’ Address to the International Conference on the European/Russian Crisis Created by Washington', June 19, 2015. ...' Wolfowitz Doctrine...''The gullibility of the public has enabled Washington to establish the foundation for a new Cold War...' ' "Washington doesn’t want partners. Washington wants vassals" ' 'European governments and, of course, the lapdog UK government, are complicit in this implicit declaration of war against Russia and China. If it comes to war, Europeans will pay the ultimate price for the treason of their leaders [...] as Europe will cease to exist'.

Odessa news
26.4.2016 'Maidan' activists protesting against city mayor Trukhanov, erecting light barricades at the city administration building, were dispersed by unknown activists armed with wooden sticks and pepper spray, several protesters were injured (photos, videos in the report).

With May 2 anniversary approaching, situation remain tense. Nationalists are making threats aimed at city administration. Regional governor Saakashvilli asked Poroshenko to deploy national guards to the city for the early days in May, explaining that those were tragic events which still resonate with many people, while those responsible were not brought to justice; and that he feels extra guards are really needed. It appeared that the request was granted, but than contradicting reports appeared.

15.1.2016 Maria Gaidar became assistant head of Odessa regional administration (Saakashvilli is the head)

6.1.2016 The subsistence minimum (this is known as poverty level in the West) per odessite in 2016 is as follows: from January 1 - 1330 hryvnia per month (that is 55 USD at this time), from May 1 - 1399 hryvnia, from December 1 - 1496 hryvnia 1 TV, Odessa.

27.8 DPR all-for all prisoners exchange list includes 63 anti-maidan activists arrested or charged after May 2 events.

19.7 Saakasvilli clashed with Filatov, Kolomoiskii ally. Clash has to do with elections in Chernigov where another Kolomoiskii ally Korban is running. Saakashvilli is said to come to support opposing candidate Berezenko, his main opponent, but gave a different reason for the visit; that ended in verbal and almost physical clash with Filatov (video), and a court case threatened by Filatov.

17.7.2015 Maria Gaidar appointed vice-governor responsible for social policy. She is a daughter of late Yegor Gaidar (a reformer, acting prime minister of Russia in the second half of 1992). Indicated that her priority will be to show residents that regional authorities care about them. tAfter showing reluctance to persistent journalist questions on who Ukraine is fighting with, eventually provided] politically correct answer telling that Russia attacked Georgia and Ukraine (on her 4th attempt).

30.5.2015 Mikheil Saakashvili appointed governor of Odessa region. Poroshenko stated that knows Saakashvilli for a long time and trusts him. Control of Odessa port which may be used for military aid,  Transnistria border, and creating positive image abroad,  are seen as some of the reasons behind the appointment. Port control and other economic matters placed Saakashvilli on collision course with Kolomoiskii, whose ally was a previous Odessa governor.

Photos/Videos
Debaltsevo Damage to houses, big craters. It is said in the article that sometime UAF intentionally damaged houses by a direct fire.

Uglegorsk: NAF arranged a corridor for civilians (English sub.) Donetsk children Enakievo Gorlovka Nikishino Nikishino (center) Uglegorsk

l16zm2GXq3c
 * Donetsk Airport ~ Before and After, January 2015 . 3D model-sketchlab
 * Luhansk Airport photos,-Graham Phillips and Cassad.

Ukrainian Agony
December 20, 2015: German freelance journalist Mark Batalmai, who has lived in Donetsk since mid-2014 and worked embedded with the opolchenie, releases his crowdfunded full-length documentary "Ukrainian Agony" in an English-language version (German-language original).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsQX6Lm142g

Agreements

 * 22.7.15 Under-100 mm weapons withdrawal was agreed Poroshenko statement: ' I hope it will be the real beginning of the ceasefire'.
 * 12.2.15 Two documents were agreed: on measures on implementing Minsk protocol (English language PDF here).

Resurgent Events?
Since now, December 23 2015, for the (n+1) time unconditional ceasefire is announced, although I do hope that one is the last, there is no warranty. So I'll just keep labels and dates for important but so far resurgent events here.

February 23 update: by the end of January, 2016, lots of shelling incidents are again reported daily. Once again, promises of ceasefire did not materialize.


 * Unconditional Ceasefire in Donbas.
 * 23.12.15 (starting 0:00, Dec 23, 2015, as announced-TASS
 * (22.7.15)
 * (12.2.15)


 * Donetsk Airport, Donetsk suburbs shelled by Ukraine
 * 13.2.16;9.2.16; 26.1.16(tank fire);25.1.16;21.1.16; 20.1.16;15.1.16; 13.1.16;31.12.15 (Staromikhailovka); 29.12; 28.12.15 (Zhabichevo); 27.12.15(Petrovskyi) ; 26.12.15(Spartak); 24.12.15 ; 13.12.15 (Dokuchaevsk).
 * (Every other day, up until now)


 * Gorlovka, nearby villages shelled (Rusvesna updates-Gorlovka)
 * 13.2.16;21.1.16; 11/12.1.16 (Engl).; 10.1.16 (1 DPR killed) 9.1.2016; 27.12.15; 24.12.15.
 * (Similar to the above)


 * Villages near Mariupol shelled by Ukraine
 * 25.1.16 (artillery, from Mariupol);Kominternovo: 21.1.16;31.12.15 29.12.15 ; 24.12.15 + Basurin & OSCE came under sniper fire, 27.12

....

Updates
28.4.16 Detailed discussion of Nuland visit and Minsk progress by a Ukrainian source. Renewed push, with a deadline of having laws in place by the end of May, implementation by the end of summer is noted. IMF loan to Ukraine may be linked to Minsk implementation, as well as adoption of a packet of other required laws. However, so far Poroshenko tactics was to delay implementation hoping that time is on the side of Ukraine, and such an approach may last forever.

25.3.16 Foreign Minister Steinmeier in Moscow: "We need Russia to help resolve conflicts". Highlights insufficient progress implementing Minsk-2.

27.1.16 Constitutional amendments: Russia's position in Minsk talks:
 * the vote on the Constitution of Ukraine should be tightly linked to the simultaneous adoption of the amendments to Articles 1 and 10 of the law on the special status of Donbass by giving special status of a permanent framework according to "Steinmeier formula";
 * revision of the amendments to the law on the special status should be agreed in the contact group;
 * A legal formula has to be found that guarantees that paragraph 18 of the transitional provisions of the Constitution will refer to the current wording of articles 2-9 of the law on the special status and to new, agreed by the contact group, wording of Articles 1 and 10;
 * This formula should be fixed (закрепить (Rus) = lit. 'fix, make firm'; here 'used'/'entered') in the Constitution of Ukraine;
 * it is also necessary to legislate in the Constitution of Ukraine, that the powers of those representatives elected in Donbass elections under a separate law will not be discontinued in 2017, as is envisaged in the constitutional reform for the rest of Ukraine

Ukraine Contact Group notes "good exchange of views" — OSCE official, TASS-English

11.1. 2016 Boris Gryzlov visited Kiev. Next trilateral group meeting is on 13.1.2016 in Minsk.

Normandy four agreed to extend Minsk agreements into the year of 2016, TASS, Dec. 30, 2015

24.12.2015 Kuchma fools around trying to reinterpret Minsk agreements, demanding border control and in effect DPR/LPR disarmament prior to elections. This is not what was agreed (and could not possibly be agreed the way he tries to put it now, with Novorossia advancing militarily at the time of the agreement). Dirty games now, and so not surprisingly no progress... 18.11.2015 Ukraine did not show up for a contact group meeting where a law on special elections in Donbas was to be discussed. Previously, it was reported that sides could not reach an agreement. According to Pushilin, agenda included a ban for Ukrainian political parties to participate in local elections in Donbas, mechanism of participation for temporary displaced persons, and amnesty law.

15.3 Minsk 3 ? It is rumored that part of Ukrainian leadership is seeking a compromise and another Minsk meeting. Maybe an info release merely testing waters; but the essence of compromise is said to be a special mode to local government which covers the entire territory of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions (including those controlled by Ukraine), but these areas will be led by the people agreed as Kiev and Moscow, and the other members of the Minsk process (Germany and France). It is said that a similar proposal was made a year ago after a meeting involving Kuchma, Medvedchuk, and DPR, but Poroshenko refused to consider it and started the ATO instead. Ukrainian media claim that the plan is actually coming from "representatives of Moscow".
 * Kremlin 'melancholically denied' (Cassad) re-interpretations/free interpretations of Minsk TASS

12.6.15 Poroshenko expects to submit de-centralization bill to Rada by the end of parliamentary session in July
 * other constitutional changes proposed by the sides: see news entry for 9.6.15 above

10.6.15 Kuchma: Russia insists on including Novorosiia representatives into tripartite liaison group, Normandy format; but his is not acceptable to us; they are included as consultants.

17-19.03 Russia called for a UNSC closed door meeting to discuss Ukraine breaking Minsk 2 agreements. Later Lavrov criticized the US position, and indicated further diplomatic moves and planned meetings in in Normandy format 16.03 Special status law requires elections based on laws of Ukraine prior to such special status. LPR/DPR were not consulted about this (although that is required in Minsk 2 agreements). With leaders of LPR/DPR and Soviets recently elected already, another elections will be problematic. There were no local elections though, may be local elections can be arranged in a way acceptable to both sides.

14.03 Poroshenko introduced special status law for Rada consideration -TASS quoting Rada site.

13.03 Zakharchenko and Plotniskii write to Hollande and Merkel about Ukraine not fulfilling its obligations: not following schedule on heavy weapons withdrawal; (most importantly) Rada has not started discussing special status for Donetsk, Lugansk regions--that work is supposed to finish by 14 March; continued economic blockade.

27.02 UNSC meeting on Ukraine started with OSCE report, highlighting state of affairs and challenges OSCE faces. Overall partial calming of warfare in the past several days noted. Neither side was willing to provide details of heavy weapons they posses, or their exact destination after proposed withdrawal. Technology (e.g. satellite), experts, and procedures need to be upgraded for OSCE to fulfill its required mission (video of OSCE presentation in Russian translation is here, other languages not found at this time)
 * abc news report dailystar SBS
 * Churkin gives a brief account of the UNSC closed door meeting TASS-English

24.02 FM meeting in Normandy format ended in Paris; heavy weapons withdrawal, verification, Debaltsevo were discussed, nothing new signed. Germany has concerns with implementation.

19.02 Poroshenko has held a phone conversation in the Normandy format, told them "not to pretend that the events in Debaltseve meet the Minsk agreements". He has also urged to elaborate clear guarantees for the possible attempts of violating the given agreements in the future. (Debaltsevo situation was known in Minsk--indeed he should not be pretending).

18.02 Poroshenko plans to ask for UN peacekeepers

17.02 UN SC unanimously approved a resolution supporting Minsk agreements. (Yet, testy rhetoric noted by Churkin)

14.02 Russia introduced UN SC resolution approving Minsk agreements of February 12. So far, English speaking world, UK and USA, did not clearly expressed their positions, and it may give an indication. So far, it was along the lines that Russia has to deliver, and may be further sanctioned otherwise, while Ukraine has nothing to deliver, and will not be sanctioned for failures. Russian officials called for a change of such approach, taking a position that the conflict is internally Ukrainian and Russia is not a participant (example). While Russian media are making presentations indicating that it is the USA who is a participant, in Kiev overlord capacity (example).

12.02 Two documents were agreed: 10.02 Contact Group agrees (a plan of)  heavy troops withdrawal, ceasefire regime -TASS
 * on measures on implementing Minsk protocol (English language PDF here). Ceasefire starting on February 15; separation of heavy weapons (from actual line for Ukraine, and from September 19 line for Novorossia; this enlarges separation), starting in 2 days from ceasefire, finishing in 14 days. All for all prisoners exchange, to finish in 5 days from separation begins. Time limits are given for all major steps. Return of border control to Ukraine is agreed to occur after local elections and constitutional reform (taking interests of breakaway regions into account)
 * declaration of support of Ukrainian peace settlement. This includes support and control of implementation.
 * It may be the case that sides do not make binding obligations, but approve and support listed measures (language is a bit vague, if something is broken later, or sides do not agree whether later vague steps actually occurred, not clear exactly what will follow)

Plotniskii, Zakharchenko press statement (English subs)

Still no direct contact between official Kiev and Novorossia. -(Mentioned by Putin in his press statement as one of the reasons negotiations took so long, had to go back and forth with Trilateral Group).

08.02 After telephone conference today, it is said that Normandy four to meet in Minsk on 11.02 if some positions will be resolved prior to that. Details of positions not explained. (Lukashenko talked to both Putin and Poroshenko about this and is happy and keen for them to come to Minsk)

06.02 Hollande-Merkel-Putin talks are finished in Moscow, it is said that a Normandy format document is being prepared based on meetings in Kiev and Moscow. Phone conference call in Normandy format expected on Sunday. (--Putin spokesman Peskov, TASS).) Putin off to Sochi, meets Lukashenko and rests; Hollande and Merkel also departing Moscow.

Petro Poroshenko, Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande insist on the immediate and unconditional ceasefire in the Donbas

Plotniskii and Zakharchenko press conference -explains Republics position why it is not their fault that latest Minsk meeting did not succeed (English subs).

Victor Baloga, Governor of trans-Carpathian region of Ukraine, proposes a referendum on whether to continue war or separate from the rebel regions. Also, Gennady Korban, assistant Governor, Dnepropetrovsk, proposes to choose between war and an agreement.

Maps


Dragon-First maps; Kot Ivanov.

Total
8.7.15 Zakharchenko, at a a joint LPR/DPR press conference: "In 2015,  1212 people were killed, including 25 children under the age of 18 years ". During the conflict in 2014, 3864 DPR peeople  died, including 522 women and 65 children. "That is more than 5000 of our people were killed just because they are residents of Donbass." (unclear is this civilian deaths or total deaths--probably total). More than 6,200 people, including women, children and the elderly were seriously injured and became disabled for life were. More than two thousand DPR inhabitants are missing.

14.8.15 From the start of hostilities, 5061 people were killed, among them 4295 men and 766 women, according to the Office of the Commissioner for Human Rights in DPR; and according to the Center for Emergency Medical Aid, 6100 were wounded Dan-news, 14.8.15. The figure is close to the one given by Zakharchenko in July (he had a higher number of 5076, so a small discrepancy here)

Children killed
3.12.15 DPR ombudsman: during the conflict, almost 80 children were killed in Donbass, Rossiiskaia Gazeta, 3.12.2015. According to DPR ombudsman Yana Chepikova, uring the hostilities, 78 children were killed in DPR, 313 were injured, 35 of them seriously injured. In LPR, 30 children were killed according to data available.

Military Casualties
19.02 Zakharchenko: Ukrainian losses in Debaltsevo cauldron may be up to 3 -3.5 thousand killed. There are plans to release or exchange those taken prisoners.

16.02 UAF: estimated 60 killed; NAF 2 killed, 21 wounded (source).

14.02 for the day and up to the ceasefire started: UAF lost 111 killed, NAF lost 8 killed, 28 wounded -Basurn

13.02 up to 100 UAF killed  Basurin, DPR

12.02 Day + night, UAF lost 169 killed (links in the news section)

08.02 LPR commander Maxim Martakov, a military policeman, and 6 fighters were killed under Chernukhino. They provided corridor for civilians. 11 UAF soldiers were killed, 29 wounded (Basurin)

04.02.15 UAF losses: 21 killed

03.02.15 UAF losses estimated at 79 killed.

02.02.15 UAF losses estimated at 130 killed.
 * Totals. In 29 days, up to ceasefire starting, 2760 UAF killed, 60 taken prisoners -Basurn
 * In 22 days since fighting restarted, 2056 UAF killed (Basurin)
 * 17 Jan.-3 Feb. UAF losses estimated at 1738 killed, 52 taken prisoners (Basurin, DPR).

Civilian Casualties
According to the Head of the DNI, the year the war seriously injured for life became disabled more than 6,200 people, including women, children and the elderly. More than two thousand inhabitants DNI missing. 08.02 Many instances of shelling of Donetsk with MLRS (including Uragans), and artillery. One very powerful explosion (videos available) was reported as well. Later it was said that a chemical plant producing paints and dry mixes in Donetsk was hit by a heavy artillery shell (DPR did not confirm that it was ammunition plant); preliminary information is that nobody was killed in that explosion.

07.02 After ceasefire ended on 6.02, Ukraine attempted an attack on the whole front line; the attack was repelled. 6 civilians were killed, 15 wounded in Donetsk due to shelling by Ukraine from the North-West.

05.02. Shelling by Ukraine had 7 civilians killed, 44 wounded, most of them in Donetsk. Schools, hospitals, kindergartens hit. Ukraine is using Smerch MLRS; range is 80 km; a full salvo covers an area of 8 football fields.

04.02 Donetsk hospital shelled, 5 killed, 5 wounded. Civilian objects destroyed: Donetsk 17, Makeevka 28, Gorlovka 2

02.02.15 16 killed, 34 wounded in DPR and LPR combined. Civilian areas hit by MLRS, Makeevka and Donetsk, (13), (14) on opolchenie map, 02.02.2015

22.01 Donetsk bus shelled at least 8 killed, 13 injured
 * Residents react abusively to UAF 'cyborg' officer captured earlier at the Airport and brought to the scene

13.01 Volnovakha bus: 12 killed, 18 wounded (talk). 24.01 Mariupol market shelling: 30 killed, 83 injured (talk).
 * Totals. Latest official UN figure: 224 civilians killed and 545 wounded in the three weeks leading up to 1 February. According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), the overall death toll now exceeds 5,358 people, with another 12,235 wounded since mid-April last year (Deaths here are likely certified, and mostly civilian).

Gorlovka
In 6 months ending July 2015, 164 civilians were killed, including 16 children; 501 were wounded, including 42 are children DAN news,  quoting city administration data,31 July 2015.

Military Hardware Lost
23.02 Zakharchenko: 'Poroshenko is our main ally'. In 5 days at Debaltsevo, 170 UAF tanks were captured or destroyed; most of them can be repaired. Also, 50 artillery pieces; they did not even count mortars. Ammunition, still move it out by railroad wagon-loads.

19.02 In Debaltsevo, opolchenie captured 265 pieces of UAF military equipment. 28 tanks, 63 BMP/BTR, 145 vehicles, 16 anti-aircraft guns, 13 artillery and mortar pieces were found in good condition and have been adopted by the DPR army. Also captured: about 1000 firearms, 39 ammunition storages and 2 railroad card with ammunition -Basurin

14.02 4 Grads launchers and ammunition seized by NAF near Debaltsevo -Basurn

03.02.15 Two UAF SU 25 were shot down (near Commisarovka and Chernukhino; one pilot bailed out). Also a drone shot down near Irvino

02-03.02.15 UAF lost 5 tanks, 1 BMP, 11 artillery pieces, one plane (and/or one Tochka U)
 * Totals: for 29 days, up to ceasefire: UAF lost 3 airplanes, 1 helicopter, 205 tanks, 182 BMP, BTR, MTLB, 208 field artillery guns, 124 vehicles  -Basurn
 * for 22 days since fighting restarted: UAF lost 3 planes, 1 helicopter, 168 tanks, 133 BMP/BTR, 124 artillery pieces, 94 vehicles
 * 17 Jan.-3 Feb. UAF lost 3 planes, 1 helicopter, 146 tanks, 114 BMP/BTR, 91 artillery pieces, 64 vehicles

Banned Weapons Use


There were numerous reports on phosphorus bomb use, with consistent photo and video footage, witness reports, burns consistent with such weapons use, etc. Many articles on Rusvesna on this topic. One of them here, for example, contain a photo of an explosion, and video, allegedly of nationalist battalion fighters, based on colors/regalia, discussing and accepting that such munitions were used by Ukraine (dated 13.02.2015 ). There were numerous other such incidents. The latest phosphorous munition report is by DoNI press,, translated at Fort Russ, Apr. 24, 2016, from Zaitsevo.

02.02.15 Report on phosphorous ammunition used against civilians by Ukraine-burns can be seen.

More photos, sky alight in Marinka (Donetsk suburb), Aug. 1, 2014

Cluster munitions

04.02.15 UAF shelled Telmanovo from Mirnoe by Smerch MLRS, civilian houses destroyed

03.02.15 Luhansk and Donetsk: Smerch, heavy MLSRS with cluster munitions used by Ukraine.

28.01.15 OSCE confirms (03.02.15 report) that cluster Smerch munitions were used against Artemivskyi district of Luhansk, shelling was from NNW. (Shelling done by Ukraine).

Economy

 * Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten: "The IMF has pumped billions in recent months into the Ukrainian financial system to stabilize the country's banks. Approximately $ 1.8 billion were going to the largest financial institution Private Bank, which is controlled by the oligarch Igor Kolomoiski. But instead of investing the money into the Ukrainian economy, Kolomoiski has managed to channel the emergency loans through a network of offshore companies abroad". Ukrainian anti-corruption project "Our Money" ('Наші гроші' (ukr) = "Nashi Groshi") is quoted as offering an explanation of the scheme, involving a 'purchase' of foreign goods which were never delivered, using a credit from Private Bank, and the payment deposited to accounts in off-shore branches of the Privat Bank.


 * Ukrainian $18 bln debt (held in bonds) will receive a 20% 'haircut'. However, between 2021 and 2040 investors will receive up to 40 per cent of the value of Ukraine’s annual economic growth above 4 per cent, although total payments will be capped at 1 per cent for the first four years.    Ukrainian GDP is 177.4 billion USD ‎(2013) -by google search. It went down quite a lot in 2014; but the IMF projection is 134 bln USD in 2020. One percent of that in growth is 1.3 bln; such amount may be paid to investors for 20 years bringing 26 bln USD. Write-off amount is about 3.6 bln USD. This wonderful deal is called a 'win-win' by Ukrainian finance minister and the Guardian . Franklin Templeton is one of the largest investors involved. Russia has 3 bln USD in Ukrainian debt and is not participating in the deal.(Vasili Muravitskii/Cassad brought up this matter).

News Sources

 * Opolchenie version of events. Rusvesna-news (rusvesna.su, Russian),   (rusvesna.su, English) , (rusnext.ru, Russian).
 * Official Donetsk People Republic (DPR) news dan-news.info.
 * Oplot TV-Donetsk Live now, youtube channel vk Oplot TV
 * First Republican Channel-DPR youtube vk ('official channel of DPR', created in April 2014, and unofficially broadcasting some material online; possibly re-broadcasting Russia 24 in their vacant slots.
 * Lugansk People Republic (LPR) news: LPR Sovet (legislature) site, news, luganskallnews.ru,  news, lug-info.com


 * Ukrainian version of events: TSN (Ukraine)(Ukrainian or Russian), Channel 5 -Ukraine
 * Rada; President.


 * OSCE SMM-Ukraine
 * TASS Chronicle-link to daily updates, (Russian),  TASS  - Ukraine (English) (easiest to search).
 * Daily Press Briefings - US Department of State

English-language sources

 * DONI, based in Donetsk
 * TASS (Engl)
 * OSCE SMM

Documentaries

 * "Les masques de la revolution", Russian dubbed over French version, Feb. 1, 2016
 * 'Times of Donbass' (Italian/Russian), Jan 12, 2016

Opinion Polls

 * IRI poll, January 2016
 * Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), July 2015
 * 13,3% would vote for the party "Block of Petro Poroshenko"
 * 12,8% - for the All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland" (Yulia Timosenko)
 * 6,8% - for the party "Union Samopomich" (Sadovyi)
 * 5,8% - for the Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko,
 * 4,1% - for the party "Opposition block" (Boyko) --formerly 'Party of Regions'-Yanukovich
 * 3,1% - for the party "Civil position"
 * 3,0% - for the party "Right Sector"
 * 3,2% - have crossed all the parties /spoiled bulletin
 * 14,3% - chose not to vote,
 * 23,5% - hard to choose,
 * 2,6% - refusal
 * 2,6% - refusal


 * Source: Socio-Political Situation In Ukraine: July 2015. Report also have opinions on various peace/Russia issues, by region (English).


 * How Do The Attitude Of Ukrainians To Russia And Russians To Ukraine Has Changed


 * In DPR/LPR, polling is done by Center for Sociological Study 'Special Status' (Центр социологических исследований «Особый статус» -russ.) Here is their opening presentation.  Poll results are published by news sources.
 * DPR poll conducted in the beginning of August in 19 DPR towns, 5900 people took part, 5% statistical error
 * 43 % for DPR to join the Russian Federation (33.8% 3 months ago)
 * 17 % for DPR to be independent ('sovereign') (42.8 % 3 months ago)
 * 18 % for the 'creation of a joint state' (unclear what that would be exactly- some sort of autonomy aligned with Russia)
 * 11 % ('not more than')  for DPR as a part of Ukraine. 14.9 % see some future with Ukraine following Minsk agreements (18.8 % 3 months ago)

Abbreviations Used
DPR: Donetsk People Republic (prime minister: Alexander Zakharchenko)

LPR: Lugansk People Republic (head: Igor Plotniskii)

JCCC Joint Center for Control and Co-ordination, consists of Ukrainian and Russian military officers,- tries to mediate to have ceasefire implemented.

MLRS: Multiple Launch Rocket System, Grad/Uragan/Smerch. Uragan or Smerch typically have cluster munitions

UAF (=AFU): Ukrainian Armed Forces

NAF (=AFN): Opolchenie, Novorossia Armed Forces

OSCE: Organization for Security and Co‑operation in Europe

RSG: recon and subversion group

SMM: Special Monitoring Mission-OSCE