Crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17/Zaroshchenskoye

A number of Russian sources claim that MH17 was shot down by a BUK missile fired by Ukrainian forces from Zaroshchenskoye south of Shakhtarsk.
 * 1) Satellite photos of alleged Ukrainian BUK missile launchers in Zaroshchenskoye, presented by the Russian Ministry of Defense in their briefing on July 21, 2014.
 * 2) Technical analysis of the shrapnel damage by Almaz-Antey that backtracks the flight path and launch site to within 1.5 km of Zaroshchenskoye.
 * 3) Alleged anonymous Ukrainian sources, that claim MH17 was shot down by mistake during a training exercise in Zaroshchenskoye.
 * 4) Alleged anonymous US sources, that claim that American satellites had seen an Ukrainian missile crew within firing range of MH17 (possible in or near Zaroshchenskoye.)
 * Tactical map of the 95th Brigade from July captured by DPR forces showing a BUK battery at the alleged launch site.
 * 1) A cipher telegram from ATO headquarters on July 15th, ordering the 3rd battalion of the 156th anti-aircraft missile brigade (3-й ЗРДН 156 ЗРП) to transfer to the area of Zaroshchenske. (Note that according to Wikipedia Muzhenko received the rank of General-Colonel only on August 23, 2014, but signed as General-Colonel on this telegram. Poroshenko decree 679/2014 awarding the rank appears to be no longer available from the official site).

Most of this evidence is unverified and can as well be forgeries.

2015

 * A puzzling new report on the downing of flight MH17 - Hans de Vreij's blog, May 6, 2015
 * Did the Ukrainians shoot down flight MH17? - Hector Reban, June 18, 2015
 * Ukrainian military acknowledges it may have shot down flight MH17 - Systematic, ''OffGuardian, July 27, 2015
 * MH17 – Zaroshchenske - October 18, 2015 (PDF)

2016

 * MH17: On the Resurs-P1 image with "BUK's near Zaroshchens’ke" - Marco Langbroek, January 29 (30), 2016
 * Dutch satellite expert states Russian MoD Zaroshensk’ye satellite photo is fake - What happened to flight MH17, January 29, 2016
 * The image (reproduced above) purports to show Ukranian BUK installations in a field near Zaroshchens'ke in Ukraine, 47 deg 59' 00" N, 38 deg 27' 05" E. Text on the image states it was taken on 17 July 2014 at 11:32 (no timezone given, but presumably standard Moscow Time, UTC +3) -sattrackcam.blogspot.nl
 * Time may be a mistake, there is summer time in Moscow, that is UTC +4 in summer; so then time when image is said to be taken, 7:32 UTC. As it is one hour earlier, a place on Earth will be further West due to Earth rotation, compared to his account. (And satellite will be elsewhere too). (Please correct if something is wrong). But apparently he gives visual 'path' of satellite, which he says is to the West of their at any time, so this may not make much difference to the conclusion. Does he really know the 'path' (and right satellite?) -not clear.
 * He really need to give full details how he got to his conclusion, to discuss it further. Resurs is on the so-called -'solar stationary' orbit; that means, re-appearing at about the same local time, but also, eastward precession of the orbit at 1 degree per day, due o non-spherical earth effects and to compensate for yearly cycle. Also it can maneuver to perform photo tasks, presumably. So, he ought to give full details how 'path' in his graphics was determined, and send full details to Russian MOD for comment. This is a commercial satellite, presumably there are military ones not widely known, he watches over them all or what? With all their precessions and maneuvers, -and unpublished orbits to begin with? -RS.

Resurs P1 tracking is here. Period is 94 minutes, appearing further West on each loop due to Earth rotation. On the next day, will not appear in the same place, as 94 does not divide number of minutes in a day; likely will repeat eventually, or else wander around. Resurs P1 has engine (integrated engine installation/vernier engine installation), so it can adjust the orbit, in addition to predictable changes due to Earth rotation.

Persona is a reconnaissance sattelite derived from Resurs family. Cosmos 2486 apparently is one of them, and is on a close orbit with about a half-period delay. Similarly to Resurs has engine and can adjust orbit (without notifying Sattrackcam about that).

Sattrackcam testified in a hearing of the committee for Foreign Affairs of Dutch Parliament in the Hague, as external expert on satellite tracking. This is a bit strange thing to do (if some weight is attached to the testimony further down the road), as there are huge number of satellites and accurately tracking them on a given day is a onerous, especially for an amateur observation enterprise. In the end of the day, they probably do some observations and than let software do the rest (without software, very likely a confusion, what is where and how it is called). But if something changes (maneuvers, accumulated precession, etc), their software is not going to tell them about it. So they may be believing in some spotting prediction, but it does not mean the prediction is true.


 * Приказ перебросить «Бук» в район крушения МН-17 отдал Муженко - SM News, September 9, 2016
 * ''Muzhenko gave the order to transfer BUK to the area of ​​crash of MH-17
 * Software package for mathematical modeling of flight accident on reconfigurable computing system - A.P. Konovalchik, A.A. Bashkatov, D.N. Nikolskii («Almaz-Antey» Air and Space Defence Corporation», Joint Stock Company)
 * Russian supercomputer simulation gives the best match to the observed damage with a point of detonation at X=0.9, Y=2.1, Z=-1.5 and and azimuth of 79.4 degrees.

2017

 * https://mh17web.wordpress.com/
 * Следы «Бука»: Новые факты о сбитом «Боинге» MH17 — репортаж из ДНР (ФОТО) -Rusvesna, December 7, 2017
 * Photos, some 3.5 km from Zarosheskoe, appearing to show an old track and brustwer/dig-out, and all appearing consistent with Buk tracks. The width between the two tracks, written over photos, 3250 mm, is the width of GM-569 chassis used in Buk TELAR/TELs. (As this is important, a word of caution is due,- we do not know the actual width on the ground, and have to take their word; they would know GM-569 width of course). But seems worthwhile to look into this further, at least. I do not know widths of other possible tracks out there; may be not unique, too (unsure). --Resup (talk) 18:56, 7 December 2017 (UTC)
 * Ukraine War: Zaroshchenskoye 2014(MH17)-today - Patrick Lancaster, September 19, 2017 (video)
 * В поисках «Бук-М1»: Журналист из США обнаружил позиции ВСУ в Зарощенском во время крушения «Боинга» MH17 (ВИДЕО, КАРТА) (In search of "Buk-M1": A journalist from the United States discovered the position of the AFU in Zaroshchensky during the wreck of Boeing MH17) - Russvesna, September 19, 2017
 * Ukrainian War: Military positions outside Zaroshchenskoye and interview with local resident - DNI News, December 6, 2017
 * Video by Patrick Lancaster, December 5, 2017
 * Новые свидетели подтвердили причастность украинской армии к катастрофе MH17 (New witnesses confirmed the involvement of the Ukrainian army in the MH17 disaster) - NTV, December 13, 2017 (video)
 * В деле о крушении "Боинга" над Донбассом появились новые факты (In the case of the crash of the "Boeing" over the Donbass, new facts appeared), Vesti, December 29, 2017
 * (FWIW). Shows that positions appeared on google maps around 16 July, 2014 (not checked); some video footage shown of the positions and Ukrainian insignia; clips with a man (Andrey Kostin) telling us where Ukrainian positions were, he claims that a missile flew from there in the direction of, roughly Grabovo; another man filmed in summer time in a field tells that access to the area was blocked, claims that he saw a radar. Seen earlier material in the rest of the video.

2019

 * Frontline MH17 - Watchdog Media, March 30, 2019 (video)
 * MH-17: In Search of Truth - UKR LEAKS, December 20, 2019 (video)
 * Notes: Vasilii Prozorov is an ex-SBU guy. The video is for the Western audience, essentially with no Rus. voice/language clues to go by. Prozorov brought with him some documents, but I recall that at the time of his escape he said that those are inconclusive (or maybe circumstantial). Noted, 31:29 timestamp, wrong subs, 22 Червень is 22 June, not July (which is of course crucial). Buks with numbers 2** are from Mariupol, see e.g. here and ourselves (we were busy with 3** mostly). What's funny about Mariupol is that it was in early days held by opolchenie, but then according to opolchenie one of their top guys betrayed and 'sold' entrance for money, FWIW. Maybe May 2014 (need to double-check). Noted, Prozorov's own story is not tight on Zaroshenslkoe, from what I cared to see, it is coming from elsewhere (MoD, Almaz-Antey). (He says, launched in the area from Shaktersk to Amvrosiivka; this is quite wide, and reasons for him to say this are not explained). Noted, manufacturer paperwork, as far as one can tell from a video, looks plausible (physical look). ---Resup (talk) 23:29, 7 January 2020 (UTC)

Almaz-Antry report

 * MH17: Russian missile-maker Almaz Antey contradicts Dutch report, says plane downed by outdated BUK missile fired from Ukrainian military controlled village of Zaroshchenskoye - Belfast Telegraph, October 13, 2015

Map

 * На карте украинских силовиков за июль 2014 года отмечены позиции ЗРК «Бук» — Басурин - DAN News, April 30, 2015
 * Basurin sez Captured Junta Maps Shows Positions of Buk SAM Units in July 2014 - Voices from Russia, April 30, 2015
 * DPR: Map discovered with positions of Ukrainian BUKs on day of MH17 crash (updated) - Systematic, OffGuardian, April 30, 2015

Discussion

 * Поражение буком из-под Зарощенское (Defeat by BUK from near Zaroshchenskoye) - MH17 on Webtalk

Debunk attempts

 * Russia Update: Challenges to Engineers’ Report in Novaya Gazeta on Downing of MH17 - Interpreter Mag Liveblog Team, May 7, 2015
 * Ukraine Live Day 451: Pictures Posted to Russian Social Media Prove Buk That Shot Down MH17 Was In Russia Before The Incident - Interpreter Mag Liveblog Team, May 14, 2015
 * MH17-Abschuss - So kreativ spielte der Kreml mit Photoshop - n-tv, June 10, 2015
 * ‘There Was No Buk in Our Field’ - Catherine A. Fitzpatrick, The Interpreter, June 10, 2015
 * Zaroshchens'ke Launch Site - Claims and Reality - Klement Anders, Nathan Patin, Bellingcat, July 2015
 * 'Er was hier geen Buk-raket' ('There was no BUK missile here') - NOS, October 12, 2015
 * Zaroshchenske was picked for a good reason by Russian Federation - whathappenedtoflightmh17, October 5, 2016

Bellingcat

 * Zaroshchens'ke Launch Site - Claims and Reality - Klement Anders
 * New July 17th Satellite Imagery Confirms Russia Produced Fake MH17 Evidence - Eliot Higgins, Bellingcat, June 12, 2015
 * Only compares images from Donetsk AA base. Does not address Zaroshchenskoye at all.