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August, 2016
10.8 TASS: The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) has said it prevented terrorist attacks in Crimea prepared by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s main intelligence directorate. "The Russian Federal Security Service prevented terrorist attacks in the Republic of Crimea prepared by the main intelligence directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. Their planned target was critically important infrastructure," the FSB said on its website, adding that the purpose of the planned attacks was "to destabilize the socio-political situation in the region as preparations for elections of federal and regional authorities are underway."
 * Putin: Two Russian servicemen were killed preventing a diversion by an Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage group in Crimea. In such circumstances, Normandy four meeting planned during G20 meeting in China would be pointless, "since those who seized power in Kiev instead of search for compromise and peaceful settlement are resorting to practice of terrorism". Russia also considers an attempt on Plotniskii life to be an act of terrorism.
 * Ukraine denied (adding that Crimea remains Ukrainian).
 * Said to be arrest video (called "Saboteurs Arsenal  (Operational Video)", 10 Aug., 2016) shows hand grenades (limonka), landmines (MON 50, and apparently  other contact and magnetic type landmines, one with marking 107 125-76 Т which does not come up in web search), plastic explosives, various detonators (including, apparently, several remote controlled), handguns and ammo, some  telescopic construction parts; Ukrainian-language packs of (1) red (червоний) pepper (2) insect repellent (3) nalbufin (opiate based painkiller); gloves, knee pads, etc. One arrested person, a heavily built middle aged man, is shown, with no sound in that part of the video. Bag(s) with all those items, individually wrapped in plastic,  was slowly ripped apart on camera with a knife (to avoid booby traps, perhaps, or for the sake of presentation). Video is of quite high quality and all details are seen well. All this is said to occur near  Armiansk and  Perekop,  Crimea, close to Ukrainian border.

Social media reports of some sort of shootout on a border checkpoint between Belgorod region (Russia) and Kharkov region (Ukraine), near a village of Goptovka.

9.8 At 15:50 today, as a result of mortar shelling of Petrovskii district of Donetsk by UAF', two civilians were killed.

DPR was shelled 567 times in the past day, including 117 artillery shells. One civilian was wounded.

8.8 Zakharchenko recalled DPR goverment officials from vacation due to deteriorating security situation.

One DPR soldier was killed and 2 were wounded due to UAF shelling.

DPR was shelled 320 times in the past day. Ukrainian artillery, self propelled artillery, MRLS, were spotted near separation line in violation of Minsk (this happens and is reported on a regular basis).

Ukrainian prosecutor general Lutsenko office calls for Poroshenko, Yatseniuk, Avakov and Turchinov to testify about Maidan 2014 events; it is said that Poroshenko agreed to testify.
 * Earlier (July 23) Lutsenko dropped a bomb saying on TV that a person who led sniper group out of Kiev was 'with us on Maidan'; while Oleg Tsarev, quoting his sources, proposed a theory that this release was made to put pressure on Avakov "and his team", as they were rumored to be preparing "bloody provocations" to seize power. Those provocations, according to Tsarev theory, were to be made against Ukrainian peace marches (Christian 'walk of the cross' peace march, see the news on July 12 and 25, 2016), and Poroshenko blamed for this. It is unclear whether the current prosecutor office move is in line with this theory (but appears to be consistent).

Savchenko starts a mini-Maidan, brings her and her sister car to presidential administration office to provide sleeping accommodations for POW mothers demanding POW exchange. Setting up a tent overnight was prohibited (Rusvesna)(112.ua). Earlier, DPR ombudsman mentioned some 2 for 2 POW swap proposal, but said that Savchenko does not have the authority to make the swap happen.

7.8 DPR was shelled 446 times in the past day. Two civilians were wounded by Ukrainian shelling near Yasinovataya (one received life threatening injuries); 4 houses were damaged, one by a direct hit.

Russian border control checkpoints suspended movement of people and vehicles from Ukraine into Crimea (still quite popular vacation destination in Ukraine); reasons were not provided; it is unclear whether traffic from Crimea to Ukraine is affected.
 * It is reported that traffic is open again.
 * Life.ru reports a shooting incident at the border, 1 person was killed, 3 wounded. Cassad has some discussion (possibly smugglers, but in any case triggering security alert).

6.8 LPR militia went on high alert to prevent possible provocations.

Assassination attempt on Plotniskii, characterized as a 'terrorist act. He survived, said to be in stable condition, 'his life is no longer in danger'. This is stated in the statement of the LPR Chairman of the Council of Ministers Sergey Kozlov. Sputnik reports that an explosion hit his car, and two people were injured. An earlier report described serious injuries, quoting a source in peoples militia (later denied, quoting Oleg Tsarev). Said to be saved by his guard who pulled him out of the burning car. Urgent surgery was performed (Interfax). Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage group was blamed (Interfax, quoting a source in prosecutor general office).
 * Video from the scene shows a damaged car, but it looks survivable.
 * Plotniskii issued an audio recording: ''I'm alive and well, and any attempt to speculate on my health - it is the machinations of supporters of the Ukrainian side. As you know, the war is not over, and behind the Ukrainian government are, of course, the United States intelligence services and those who are trying to destabilize the situation in Ukraine and in the whole world. Those who hope to depose the legitimate authority in LPR are simply provocateurs. We do not need to listen to them ... I ask all to remain calm, nothing serious happened. Anyone who talks about me becoming incapacitated is a traitor and an enemy of the Republic. Thank you, and I'll soon be back at work ". Was released form hospital on 7.8
 * Andrey Marochko, an official representative of LPR people militia claimed in a press conference that based on radio intercept, assassination was prepared by "SBU diversants" (ie agents/saboteurs), prepared in Severodonetsk by a "commander of Rubin " (Ruby) detachment, which "trains under the guidance of advisers from foreign special services". According to LPR intelligence, shortly before the attack, special detachment of SBU made a communication and "asked for a confirmation for the criminal act" to proceed. Published by many sources including the official Rossiskaya Gazeta. Radio intercept mentioned was not published, there is a brief clip from the press conference only.
 * Predictably, Ukraine has blamed Russia (MOI adviser Zorjan Shkirjak).

SBU head Yurii Tandit said, as quoted, that he received information about assassination via closed channels, and expressed 'compassion to all those who are in serious condition, including to Plotniskii as a human being'. He declined further comment. Earlier, on April 29, DPR security service spokeswoman Maria Petrova claimed that Ukraine/Poroshenko ordered assassination of DPR and LPR leaders, due to lack of desire to fulfill Minsk agreements. This announcement was made after an attempt on Zakharchenko life was prevented by the DPR security services (as reported at the time, 29.4). It was not crystal clear was it for real, or some sort of a guess, and no further clarification emerged since than, it vanished from the news and Minsk meetings continued. But it is remembered now.
 * Poroshenko administration spokesman denied Ukrainian involvement.

Head of the Monitoring Mission of the UN Human Rights in Ukraine, Fiona Fraser and Commissioner for Human Rights in the DPR (ombudsman) Daria Morozova arrived on the territory of Western penal colony to check the conditions of Ukrainian prisoners of war.

5.8 According to DPR ombudsman, in the past week 6 people were killed (4 soldiers and 2 civilians), 15 were wounded (8 soldiers and 7 civilians).

Detailed weekly update by Rusvesna gives graphics for daily numbers of shelling, points out that heavy weapons are not at its supposed storage locations and there are many instances when they are located near separation line in violations of agreements; reminds that official Ukrainian losses data are considerably lower than "war nurses" numbers just for the hospitals in Kharkov (182 wounded officially, 302 admitted to Kharkov hospitals for the month of July); etc.

4.8 One soldier was killed by shelling; and  a 48 year old  woman was killed when artillery shell exploded in Donetsk.

2.8 Airborne Troops day celebrated on the same day in Russia and Ukraine, under the same motto 'Nobody but us", by the same nearly-legendary 'founding father' Vasily Margelov. (The motto made its way to congratulations by both presidents). Highlighting surrealism of the war, as was many times pointed out.

DPR was shelled over 466 times.

1.8 Two DPR soldiers seriously wounded, one civilian killed in Yasinovataya, another wounded -DAN News

Mikhail Babich, (wiki), (bio), (Duma page), with a background in military, FSB, and a career in government, was recommended for ambassador to Ukraine job by a Duma committee. However, Ukraine indicated that his diplomatic credentials will not be considered or approved. According to Ukrainian FM Klimkin, this is because of lack of progress in Donbass. While there seem to be no final word on this (he is not even officially announced for the job by Kremlin), there seems to be a potential for reduced diplomatic relations between Ukraine and Russia. Russia  indicated    plans to "appoint a new ambassador", highlighting potential  risks of reduced diplomatic relations  if Ukraine decided otherwise.

July, 2016
31.7 Heavy shelling of Donetsk, Yasinovataya reported in the evening and the next morning hours -report and photos. Video of Yasinovataya residential area hit (DPR controlled )

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Weekly DPR ombudsman update, 12 killed, 15 wounded in DPR -translated in Doni News. Russian version contains yearly and all-time figures too (4147 killed in DPR from the start of the conflict).

It is reported that Ukrainian nationalistic battalion Sever (North), about 300 people, arrived to Luhansk front from Chernigov (Ukraine). Somehow consists of members of nationalistic movement 'Russians for Maidan'. Both entities have FB presence; Sever battalion seems to be involved with drone operations/ reconnaissance (and likely not just that)

29.7 OSCE drone video records violations by both sides on a number of nights in 20's of July (everything we see are Minsk violations). Starts ( 0:15 video time stamp) with Ukrainian mortar and artillery strikes on DPR controlled Avdeevka, on 18 of July at 17:59 UTC. Followed by (0:32) mortar hits in government controlled Avdeevka, on 18 of July at 18:38  UTC (after DPR was hit). Anti-aircraft fire on the contact line is seen on 21 July, 19:26 UTC. SA-8 surface to air system drives through government -controlled Tonenkoe on 22 July, 8 km from separation line. Mortar impacts in government controlled Avdeevka on 22 July at 19:39 UTC. Outgoing mortar round from DPR controlled Spartak, 22 July at 19:55 UTC. Artillery strike targeting railway in DPR controlled Avdeevka (3:15),  22 July at 21:27:(20-38) UTC. Artillery strike targeting motorway bridge in DPR controlled Avdeevka (3:33),  22 July at 21:27:47-21:28:31 UTC.

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28.7 A reshuffle in Russia, with Ambassador to Ukraine Zurabov relieved of his duty, after some 7 years in service. Officially it is said that he asked for this himself. Commentators note that he developed quite cozy relations with Poroshenko and co, and now it may be somebody less accommodating. For now, only temporary replacement. Also, Crimea and Southern district of Russia are joined together, to manage them more easily perhaps. Kiev protested the change.

26.7 Increased shelling, DPR was shelled 812 times, including 87 artillery shells. 2 DPR soldiers were killed, another 2 wounded. One civilian was wounded. Ukraine is bringing artillery closer to separation line, in violation of Minsk agreements. Despite Ukrainian shelling in the previous day, Ukrainian reports blame DPR -Rusvesna.

25.7 Rusvesna report: DPR was shelled 570 times, including 69 by banned artillery. Other violations listed, names of Ukrainian commanders provided. DPR reconnaissance accuse UAF in staging shelling of their territory, to present to OSCE as violations by DPR, and reports that according to their information, in the village of Желанное (Zhelannoe) 'as a result of negligent handling' UAF artillery ammo detonated resulting in (claimed) 11 UAF killed, 18 wounded. Artillery was used to shell DPR in violation of Minsk agreement.

One of the peace processions was again attacked by Right Sektor, but the police intervened in time. This happened 30 km south of Kiev. The processions are scheduled to arrive in the capital on Wednesday.

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24.7 Military maneuvers, wishful-thinkfully called  "Southern wind" throughout Ukraine, with US ships visiting Odessa port - Rusvesna. Called command-post exercises. (командно-штабные учения).

UAF official losses in the past week: 6 killed, 13 wounded. Another 8 soldiers had contusions-Rusvesna, quoting 24 July press briefing by the speaker of the presidential administration of Ukraine on "ATO" Alexander Motuzyanik.

23.7 Donetsk and Gorlovka came under Ukrainian shelling in the evening.

On a short notice, DPR local elections date is moved to 6 November, 2016, from the previously announced date, from 24 July 2014. At some point that was called preliminary elections or primaries. There was a group of observers lined up which included Johan Bäckman from Finland and Miodrag Zarkovich from Serbia.

A group of international observers visited Gorlovka, made photos of destruction, and talked to locals -DAN news.

22.7 Fourteen people were wounded in DPR in the past week, 10 of them are civilians (including 3 children), and 4 are soldiers.

Ivan Prihodko appointed head of Gorlovka. Opolchenie veteran, currently head of Kuibyshev district of Donetsk (nearly as heavily shelled as Gorlovka).

21.7 Fighting reported at Yasinovataya checkpoint, UAF shells Donetsk suburbs.

According to DPR, separation of sides in some of the hotspots was discussed in Minsk, apparently with little progress to report.

20.7 Ukrainian journalist Pavel Sheremet (hailing from Belarus') was killed when a car he was driving exploded in Kiev. His murder was condemned and called a provocation in Russia and Ukraine. According to reports, he was not a radical, yet overall had taken quite moderately anti-Lukashenko,  anti-Russian, and pro-US positions, supported Azov battalion (while noting its pro-fascist leanings), etc. Poroshenko ordered  his best experts to conduct investigation and involve  FBI. It is said that installing IED under his car was recorded on a security camera, and that the device was targeting the driver.
 * Security camera video emerged; IED installed by a woman, working in a pair with a man.

18.7 DPR was shelled 692 times in the past day. One DPR soldier was killed, another wounded in shelling by Ukraine. Nine houses were damaged in Gorlovka and Kominternovo.

16.7 A child was wounded due to Ukrainian shelling.

15.7 Zakharchenko and his group came under Ukrainian artillery fire in Avdeevka ('inspecting how Minsk agreements are fulfilled' according to his press service- Rusvesna). Nobody was hurt.

DPR ombudsman: In the past week, 8 people were killed in DPR (one civil servant and 7 soldiers); 7 were wounded (6 of them are civilians). According to ombudsman data, 4126 people were killed in DPR from the beginning of the conflict.

Under provocations of Right Sector, the three orthodox processions are picking up steam and people on the way, counting tens of thousands each. Plan is to reach Kiev from three sides on July 27, a day before the Baptism of Kievan Rus' will be commemorated. (German language report with videos)

12.7 Up to 12 UAF soldiers could be killed after failed  UAF reconnaissance-in-force in Novotroitskoe (SW of Donetsk) and industrial area of Avdeevka.

Two pro-peace Christian Orthodox religious processions, one from Western Ukraine, another from Donbas, started moving towards each other with plans to meet in Kiev by the walls of the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra (report  with photos). Odessa joined too.

10.7 DPR. Shelling by UAF continues, 4 civilians were wounded in Donetsk and Gorlovka. According to Ukrainian reports, 3 UAF soldiers were killed, 16 wounded (Rusvesna, quoting Andrey Lysenko). At present only previous day Lysenko report is posted, reporting that 1 UAF soldiers was killed and claiming that '6 militants were killed' (the latter not confirmed by the other side; Ukrainian claims on their own and opponent losses are known to be inaccurate in the past).



9.7 Poroshenko was at NATO summit and trying to gain more Western support. This resulted in "comprehensive aid package for Ukraine", and Joint Statement of the Ukraine-NATO Commission (with blaming Russia continued). WSJ give some brief details of informal meetings
 * ''NATO offered a new package of assistance on counter so-called hybrid threats, which include covert attacks aimed at undermining government legitimacy, as well as assistance on improvised explosive devices, or roadside bombs.

8.7 As a result of Ukrainian shelling, three DPR soldiers were killed in the past week, 2 were wounded. 7 civilians were wounded. 2 houses were destroyed and 77 damaged.

In a phone conference between Putin, Hollande and Merkel, the situation in Donbass is discussed.

6.7 Two DPR soldiers were wounded

In a meeting of Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Grigory Kasarin, with the ambassadors to Russia of Germany and France, and in a phone call between Presidents Putin and Obama, concerns about the escalation of violence in Donbass, and apparent preparations for more by the Ukrainian army, are expressed by the Russian sides.
 * White House: ''On Ukraine, President Obama urged President Putin to take steps to end the significant uptick in fighting in eastern Ukraine and stressed the urgent importance of moving forward with full implementation of the Minsk agreements.
 * Kremlin: During the discussion of Ukraine, the President of Russia again pointed to the importance of Kiev strictly observing the Minsk agreements of February 12, 2015, including the start of a real direct dialogue with Donetsk and Lugansk, amnesty, special status for the DPR and the LPR and the joint elaboration of a law on local elections. He emphasised that there is no alternative to a political settlement and stressed the need to step up efforts to address ceasefire violations and the importance of full compliance with the agreement on the withdrawal of heavy weapons and the separation of the sides to the conflict, in which the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission has a major role to play.

4.7 UAF shells Donetsk; a passenger bus and a cafe in Donetsk were hit, two civilians were wounded. 3 more civilians wounded in shelling of Kuibyshevskii district of Donetsk.

3.7 Commander of 7 DPR brigade, call name 'Zaria', was killed in what is described as terrorist attack in Makeevka, near Donetsk. THere was an explosion at railway crossing and his car was hit. Two people were killed and a driver wounded. 'Zaria' defended Debaltsevo against recent UAF attack (June 2016).

2.7 Kiev received the American counterbattery radars -ukropnews

1.7 It is said that DPR anti-aircraft defense missiles struck two Ukrainian drones over Donetsk -report.

12 people killed in DPR in the past week, including 8 soldiers, 2 civilians, and 2 children killed by power line downed in shelling. 9 people were wounded (DAN news).

Documenting Incidents, Human Rights violations

 * Interactive map of human rights violations, human rights NCO organization 'Just Defense' based in Moscow in partnership with Ombudsman-DPR vkontakte (vk.com) Ombudsman-DPR -Daria Morozova  (announcement video).

Analysis

 * Why They Are Killing Donbass? Novorossia TV with English subs. Blames consumerism, has very interesting cultural observations and quotations (incl late acad. Vladimir Arnold at 21:23 on educational reasons).

Blaming Ukraine
Gennady Korban (Kolomoiskii team) "ATO operation handling was a failure" ru.tsn.ua 'Korban made statements about corruption [...] and failed ATO handling'. Previously, criticized using heavy weapons in Donbass and suggested that at most police action is appropriate.

Blaming Russia

 * '(...) Lies about Ukraine', -Boris Nemtsov, Leonid Martyniuk-blames Russian Government (based on inaccurate or later reversed statements made at the official level).

Blaming the USA

 * Paul Craig Roberts ’ Address to the International Conference on the European/Russian Crisis Created by Washington', June 19, 2015. ...' Wolfowitz Doctrine...''The gullibility of the public has enabled Washington to establish the foundation for a new Cold War...' ' "Washington doesn’t want partners. Washington wants vassals" ' 'European governments and, of course, the lapdog UK government, are complicit in this implicit declaration of war against Russia and China. If it comes to war, Europeans will pay the ultimate price for the treason of their leaders [...] as Europe will cease to exist'.

Odessa news
26.4.2016 'Maidan' activists protesting against city mayor Trukhanov, erecting light barricades at the city administration building, were dispersed by unknown activists armed with wooden sticks and pepper spray, several protesters were injured (photos, videos in the report).

With May 2 anniversary approaching, situation remain tense. Nationalists are making threats aimed at city administration. Regional governor Saakashvilli asked Poroshenko to deploy national guards to the city for the early days in May, explaining that those were tragic events which still resonate with many people, while those responsible were not brought to justice; and that he feels extra guards are really needed. It appeared that the request was granted, but than contradicting reports appeared.

15.1.2016 Maria Gaidar became assistant head of Odessa regional administration (Saakashvilli is the head)

6.1.2016 The subsistence minimum (this is known as poverty level in the West) per odessite in 2016 is as follows: from January 1 - 1330 hryvnia per month (that is 55 USD at this time), from May 1 - 1399 hryvnia, from December 1 - 1496 hryvnia 1 TV, Odessa.

27.8 DPR all-for all prisoners exchange list includes 63 anti-maidan activists arrested or charged after May 2 events.

19.7 Saakasvilli clashed with Filatov, Kolomoiskii ally. Clash has to do with elections in Chernigov where another Kolomoiskii ally Korban is running. Saakashvilli is said to come to support opposing candidate Berezenko, his main opponent, but gave a different reason for the visit; that ended in verbal and almost physical clash with Filatov (video), and a court case threatened by Filatov.

17.7.2015 Maria Gaidar appointed vice-governor responsible for social policy. She is a daughter of late Yegor Gaidar (a reformer, acting prime minister of Russia in the second half of 1992). Indicated that her priority will be to show residents that regional authorities care about them. tAfter showing reluctance to persistent journalist questions on who Ukraine is fighting with, eventually provided] politically correct answer telling that Russia attacked Georgia and Ukraine (on her 4th attempt).

30.5.2015 Mikheil Saakashvili appointed governor of Odessa region. Poroshenko stated that knows Saakashvilli for a long time and trusts him. Control of Odessa port which may be used for military aid,  Transnistria border, and creating positive image abroad,  are seen as some of the reasons behind the appointment. Port control and other economic matters placed Saakashvilli on collision course with Kolomoiskii, whose ally was a previous Odessa governor.

Photos/Videos
Debaltsevo Damage to houses, big craters. It is said in the article that sometime UAF intentionally damaged houses by a direct fire.

Uglegorsk: NAF arranged a corridor for civilians (English sub.) Donetsk children Enakievo Gorlovka Nikishino Nikishino (center) Uglegorsk

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 * Donetsk Airport ~ Before and After, January 2015 . 3D model-sketchlab
 * Luhansk Airport photos,-Graham Phillips and Cassad.

Ukrainian Agony
December 20, 2015: German freelance journalist Mark Batalmai, who has lived in Donetsk since mid-2014 and worked embedded with the opolchenie, releases his crowdfunded full-length documentary "Ukrainian Agony" in an English-language version (German-language original).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsQX6Lm142g

Agreements

 * 22.7.15 Under-100 mm weapons withdrawal was agreed Poroshenko statement: ' I hope it will be the real beginning of the ceasefire'.
 * 12.2.15 Two documents were agreed: on measures on implementing Minsk protocol (English language PDF here).

Resurgent Events?
Since now, December 23 2015, for the (n+1) time unconditional ceasefire is announced, although I do hope that one is the last, there is no warranty. So I'll just keep labels and dates for important but so far resurgent events here.

February 23 update: by the end of January, 2016, lots of shelling incidents are again reported daily. Once again, promises of ceasefire did not materialize.


 * Unconditional Ceasefire in Donbas.
 * 23.12.15 (starting 0:00, Dec 23, 2015, as announced-TASS
 * (22.7.15)
 * (12.2.15)


 * Donetsk Airport, Donetsk suburbs shelled by Ukraine
 * 13.2.16;9.2.16; 26.1.16(tank fire);25.1.16;21.1.16; 20.1.16;15.1.16; 13.1.16;31.12.15 (Staromikhailovka); 29.12; 28.12.15 (Zhabichevo); 27.12.15(Petrovskyi) ; 26.12.15(Spartak); 24.12.15 ; 13.12.15 (Dokuchaevsk).
 * (Every other day, up until now)


 * Gorlovka, nearby villages shelled (Rusvesna updates-Gorlovka)
 * 13.2.16;21.1.16; 11/12.1.16 (Engl).; 10.1.16 (1 DPR killed) 9.1.2016; 27.12.15; 24.12.15.
 * (Similar to the above)


 * Villages near Mariupol shelled by Ukraine
 * 25.1.16 (artillery, from Mariupol);Kominternovo: 21.1.16;31.12.15 29.12.15 ; 24.12.15 + Basurin & OSCE came under sniper fire, 27.12

....

Updates
28.4.16 Detailed discussion of Nuland visit and Minsk progress by a Ukrainian source. Renewed push, with a deadline of having laws in place by the end of May, implementation by the end of summer is noted. IMF loan to Ukraine may be linked to Minsk implementation, as well as adoption of a packet of other required laws. However, so far Poroshenko tactics was to delay implementation hoping that time is on the side of Ukraine, and such an approach may last forever.

25.3.16 Foreign Minister Steinmeier in Moscow: "We need Russia to help resolve conflicts". Highlights insufficient progress implementing Minsk-2.

27.1.16 Constitutional amendments: Russia's position in Minsk talks:
 * the vote on the Constitution of Ukraine should be tightly linked to the simultaneous adoption of the amendments to Articles 1 and 10 of the law on the special status of Donbass by giving special status of a permanent framework according to "Steinmeier formula";
 * revision of the amendments to the law on the special status should be agreed in the contact group;
 * A legal formula has to be found that guarantees that paragraph 18 of the transitional provisions of the Constitution will refer to the current wording of articles 2-9 of the law on the special status and to new, agreed by the contact group, wording of Articles 1 and 10;
 * This formula should be fixed (закрепить (Rus) = lit. 'fix, make firm'; here 'used'/'entered') in the Constitution of Ukraine;
 * it is also necessary to legislate in the Constitution of Ukraine, that the powers of those representatives elected in Donbass elections under a separate law will not be discontinued in 2017, as is envisaged in the constitutional reform for the rest of Ukraine

Ukraine Contact Group notes "good exchange of views" — OSCE official, TASS-English

11.1. 2016 Boris Gryzlov visited Kiev. Next trilateral group meeting is on 13.1.2016 in Minsk.

Normandy four agreed to extend Minsk agreements into the year of 2016, TASS, Dec. 30, 2015

24.12.2015 Kuchma fools around trying to reinterpret Minsk agreements, demanding border control and in effect DPR/LPR disarmament prior to elections. This is not what was agreed (and could not possibly be agreed the way he tries to put it now, with Novorossia advancing militarily at the time of the agreement). Dirty games now, and so not surprisingly no progress... 18.11.2015 Ukraine did not show up for a contact group meeting where a law on special elections in Donbas was to be discussed. Previously, it was reported that sides could not reach an agreement. According to Pushilin, agenda included a ban for Ukrainian political parties to participate in local elections in Donbas, mechanism of participation for temporary displaced persons, and amnesty law.

15.3 Minsk 3 ? It is rumored that part of Ukrainian leadership is seeking a compromise and another Minsk meeting. Maybe an info release merely testing waters; but the essence of compromise is said to be a special mode to local government which covers the entire territory of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions (including those controlled by Ukraine), but these areas will be led by the people agreed as Kiev and Moscow, and the other members of the Minsk process (Germany and France). It is said that a similar proposal was made a year ago after a meeting involving Kuchma, Medvedchuk, and DPR, but Poroshenko refused to consider it and started the ATO instead. Ukrainian media claim that the plan is actually coming from "representatives of Moscow".
 * Kremlin 'melancholically denied' (Cassad) re-interpretations/free interpretations of Minsk TASS

12.6.15 Poroshenko expects to submit de-centralization bill to Rada by the end of parliamentary session in July
 * other constitutional changes proposed by the sides: see news entry for 9.6.15 above

10.6.15 Kuchma: Russia insists on including Novorosiia representatives into tripartite liaison group, Normandy format; but his is not acceptable to us; they are included as consultants.

17-19.03 Russia called for a UNSC closed door meeting to discuss Ukraine breaking Minsk 2 agreements. Later Lavrov criticized the US position, and indicated further diplomatic moves and planned meetings in in Normandy format 16.03 Special status law requires elections based on laws of Ukraine prior to such special status. LPR/DPR were not consulted about this (although that is required in Minsk 2 agreements). With leaders of LPR/DPR and Soviets recently elected already, another elections will be problematic. There were no local elections though, may be local elections can be arranged in a way acceptable to both sides.

14.03 Poroshenko introduced special status law for Rada consideration -TASS quoting Rada site.

13.03 Zakharchenko and Plotniskii write to Hollande and Merkel about Ukraine not fulfilling its obligations: not following schedule on heavy weapons withdrawal; (most importantly) Rada has not started discussing special status for Donetsk, Lugansk regions--that work is supposed to finish by 14 March; continued economic blockade.

27.02 UNSC meeting on Ukraine started with OSCE report, highlighting state of affairs and challenges OSCE faces. Overall partial calming of warfare in the past several days noted. Neither side was willing to provide details of heavy weapons they posses, or their exact destination after proposed withdrawal. Technology (e.g. satellite), experts, and procedures need to be upgraded for OSCE to fulfill its required mission (video of OSCE presentation in Russian translation is here, other languages not found at this time)
 * abc news report dailystar SBS
 * Churkin gives a brief account of the UNSC closed door meeting TASS-English

24.02 FM meeting in Normandy format ended in Paris; heavy weapons withdrawal, verification, Debaltsevo were discussed, nothing new signed. Germany has concerns with implementation.

19.02 Poroshenko has held a phone conversation in the Normandy format, told them "not to pretend that the events in Debaltseve meet the Minsk agreements". He has also urged to elaborate clear guarantees for the possible attempts of violating the given agreements in the future. (Debaltsevo situation was known in Minsk--indeed he should not be pretending).

18.02 Poroshenko plans to ask for UN peacekeepers

17.02 UN SC unanimously approved a resolution supporting Minsk agreements. (Yet, testy rhetoric noted by Churkin)

14.02 Russia introduced UN SC resolution approving Minsk agreements of February 12. So far, English speaking world, UK and USA, did not clearly expressed their positions, and it may give an indication. So far, it was along the lines that Russia has to deliver, and may be further sanctioned otherwise, while Ukraine has nothing to deliver, and will not be sanctioned for failures. Russian officials called for a change of such approach, taking a position that the conflict is internally Ukrainian and Russia is not a participant (example). While Russian media are making presentations indicating that it is the USA who is a participant, in Kiev overlord capacity (example).

12.02 Two documents were agreed: 10.02 Contact Group agrees (a plan of)  heavy troops withdrawal, ceasefire regime -TASS
 * on measures on implementing Minsk protocol (English language PDF here). Ceasefire starting on February 15; separation of heavy weapons (from actual line for Ukraine, and from September 19 line for Novorossia; this enlarges separation), starting in 2 days from ceasefire, finishing in 14 days. All for all prisoners exchange, to finish in 5 days from separation begins. Time limits are given for all major steps. Return of border control to Ukraine is agreed to occur after local elections and constitutional reform (taking interests of breakaway regions into account)
 * declaration of support of Ukrainian peace settlement. This includes support and control of implementation.
 * It may be the case that sides do not make binding obligations, but approve and support listed measures (language is a bit vague, if something is broken later, or sides do not agree whether later vague steps actually occurred, not clear exactly what will follow)

Plotniskii, Zakharchenko press statement (English subs)

Still no direct contact between official Kiev and Novorossia. -(Mentioned by Putin in his press statement as one of the reasons negotiations took so long, had to go back and forth with Trilateral Group).

08.02 After telephone conference today, it is said that Normandy four to meet in Minsk on 11.02 if some positions will be resolved prior to that. Details of positions not explained. (Lukashenko talked to both Putin and Poroshenko about this and is happy and keen for them to come to Minsk)

06.02 Hollande-Merkel-Putin talks are finished in Moscow, it is said that a Normandy format document is being prepared based on meetings in Kiev and Moscow. Phone conference call in Normandy format expected on Sunday. (--Putin spokesman Peskov, TASS).) Putin off to Sochi, meets Lukashenko and rests; Hollande and Merkel also departing Moscow.

Petro Poroshenko, Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande insist on the immediate and unconditional ceasefire in the Donbas

Plotniskii and Zakharchenko press conference -explains Republics position why it is not their fault that latest Minsk meeting did not succeed (English subs).

Victor Baloga, Governor of trans-Carpathian region of Ukraine, proposes a referendum on whether to continue war or separate from the rebel regions. Also, Gennady Korban, assistant Governor, Dnepropetrovsk, proposes to choose between war and an agreement.

Maps


Dragon-First maps; Kot Ivanov.

Total
8.7.15 Zakharchenko, at a a joint LPR/DPR press conference: "In 2015,  1212 people were killed, including 25 children under the age of 18 years ". During the conflict in 2014, 3864 DPR peeople  died, including 522 women and 65 children. "That is more than 5000 of our people were killed just because they are residents of Donbass." (unclear is this civilian deaths or total deaths--probably total). More than 6,200 people, including women, children and the elderly were seriously injured and became disabled for life were. More than two thousand DPR inhabitants are missing.

14.8.15 From the start of hostilities, 5061 people were killed, among them 4295 men and 766 women, according to the Office of the Commissioner for Human Rights in DPR; and according to the Center for Emergency Medical Aid, 6100 were wounded Dan-news, 14.8.15. The figure is close to the one given by Zakharchenko in July (he had a higher number of 5076, so a small discrepancy here)

Children killed
3.12.15 DPR ombudsman: during the conflict, almost 80 children were killed in Donbass, Rossiiskaia Gazeta, 3.12.2015. According to DPR ombudsman Yana Chepikova, uring the hostilities, 78 children were killed in DPR, 313 were injured, 35 of them seriously injured. In LPR, 30 children were killed according to data available.

Military Casualties
19.02 Zakharchenko: Ukrainian losses in Debaltsevo cauldron may be up to 3 -3.5 thousand killed. There are plans to release or exchange those taken prisoners.

16.02 UAF: estimated 60 killed; NAF 2 killed, 21 wounded (source).

14.02 for the day and up to the ceasefire started: UAF lost 111 killed, NAF lost 8 killed, 28 wounded -Basurn

13.02 up to 100 UAF killed  Basurin, DPR

12.02 Day + night, UAF lost 169 killed (links in the news section)

08.02 LPR commander Maxim Martakov, a military policeman, and 6 fighters were killed under Chernukhino. They provided corridor for civilians. 11 UAF soldiers were killed, 29 wounded (Basurin)

04.02.15 UAF losses: 21 killed

03.02.15 UAF losses estimated at 79 killed.

02.02.15 UAF losses estimated at 130 killed.
 * Totals. In 29 days, up to ceasefire starting, 2760 UAF killed, 60 taken prisoners -Basurn
 * In 22 days since fighting restarted, 2056 UAF killed (Basurin)
 * 17 Jan.-3 Feb. UAF losses estimated at 1738 killed, 52 taken prisoners (Basurin, DPR).

Civilian Casualties
According to the Head of the DNI, the year the war seriously injured for life became disabled more than 6,200 people, including women, children and the elderly. More than two thousand inhabitants DNI missing. 08.02 Many instances of shelling of Donetsk with MLRS (including Uragans), and artillery. One very powerful explosion (videos available) was reported as well. Later it was said that a chemical plant producing paints and dry mixes in Donetsk was hit by a heavy artillery shell (DPR did not confirm that it was ammunition plant); preliminary information is that nobody was killed in that explosion.

07.02 After ceasefire ended on 6.02, Ukraine attempted an attack on the whole front line; the attack was repelled. 6 civilians were killed, 15 wounded in Donetsk due to shelling by Ukraine from the North-West.

05.02. Shelling by Ukraine had 7 civilians killed, 44 wounded, most of them in Donetsk. Schools, hospitals, kindergartens hit. Ukraine is using Smerch MLRS; range is 80 km; a full salvo covers an area of 8 football fields.

04.02 Donetsk hospital shelled, 5 killed, 5 wounded. Civilian objects destroyed: Donetsk 17, Makeevka 28, Gorlovka 2

02.02.15 16 killed, 34 wounded in DPR and LPR combined. Civilian areas hit by MLRS, Makeevka and Donetsk, (13), (14) on opolchenie map, 02.02.2015

22.01 Donetsk bus shelled at least 8 killed, 13 injured
 * Residents react abusively to UAF 'cyborg' officer captured earlier at the Airport and brought to the scene

13.01 Volnovakha bus: 12 killed, 18 wounded (talk). 24.01 Mariupol market shelling: 30 killed, 83 injured (talk).
 * Totals. Latest official UN figure: 224 civilians killed and 545 wounded in the three weeks leading up to 1 February. According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), the overall death toll now exceeds 5,358 people, with another 12,235 wounded since mid-April last year (Deaths here are likely certified, and mostly civilian).

Gorlovka
In 6 months ending July 2015, 164 civilians were killed, including 16 children; 501 were wounded, including 42 are children DAN news,  quoting city administration data,31 July 2015.

Military Hardware Lost
23.02 Zakharchenko: 'Poroshenko is our main ally'. In 5 days at Debaltsevo, 170 UAF tanks were captured or destroyed; most of them can be repaired. Also, 50 artillery pieces; they did not even count mortars. Ammunition, still move it out by railroad wagon-loads.

19.02 In Debaltsevo, opolchenie captured 265 pieces of UAF military equipment. 28 tanks, 63 BMP/BTR, 145 vehicles, 16 anti-aircraft guns, 13 artillery and mortar pieces were found in good condition and have been adopted by the DPR army. Also captured: about 1000 firearms, 39 ammunition storages and 2 railroad card with ammunition -Basurin

14.02 4 Grads launchers and ammunition seized by NAF near Debaltsevo -Basurn

03.02.15 Two UAF SU 25 were shot down (near Commisarovka and Chernukhino; one pilot bailed out). Also a drone shot down near Irvino

02-03.02.15 UAF lost 5 tanks, 1 BMP, 11 artillery pieces, one plane (and/or one Tochka U)
 * Totals: for 29 days, up to ceasefire: UAF lost 3 airplanes, 1 helicopter, 205 tanks, 182 BMP, BTR, MTLB, 208 field artillery guns, 124 vehicles  -Basurn
 * for 22 days since fighting restarted: UAF lost 3 planes, 1 helicopter, 168 tanks, 133 BMP/BTR, 124 artillery pieces, 94 vehicles
 * 17 Jan.-3 Feb. UAF lost 3 planes, 1 helicopter, 146 tanks, 114 BMP/BTR, 91 artillery pieces, 64 vehicles

Banned Weapons Use


There were numerous reports on phosphorus bomb use, with consistent photo and video footage, witness reports, burns consistent with such weapons use, etc. Many articles on Rusvesna on this topic. One of them here, for example, contain a photo of an explosion, and video, allegedly of nationalist battalion fighters, based on colors/regalia, discussing and accepting that such munitions were used by Ukraine (dated 13.02.2015 ). There were numerous other such incidents. The latest phosphorous munition report is by DoNI press,, translated at Fort Russ, Apr. 24, 2016, from Zaitsevo.

02.02.15 Report on phosphorous ammunition used against civilians by Ukraine-burns can be seen.

More photos, sky alight in Marinka (Donetsk suburb), Aug. 1, 2014

Cluster munitions

04.02.15 UAF shelled Telmanovo from Mirnoe by Smerch MLRS, civilian houses destroyed

03.02.15 Luhansk and Donetsk: Smerch, heavy MLSRS with cluster munitions used by Ukraine.

28.01.15 OSCE confirms (03.02.15 report) that cluster Smerch munitions were used against Artemivskyi district of Luhansk, shelling was from NNW. (Shelling done by Ukraine).

Economy

 * Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten: "The IMF has pumped billions in recent months into the Ukrainian financial system to stabilize the country's banks. Approximately $ 1.8 billion were going to the largest financial institution Private Bank, which is controlled by the oligarch Igor Kolomoiski. But instead of investing the money into the Ukrainian economy, Kolomoiski has managed to channel the emergency loans through a network of offshore companies abroad". Ukrainian anti-corruption project "Our Money" ('Наші гроші' (ukr) = "Nashi Groshi") is quoted as offering an explanation of the scheme, involving a 'purchase' of foreign goods which were never delivered, using a credit from Private Bank, and the payment deposited to accounts in off-shore branches of the Privat Bank.


 * Ukrainian $18 bln debt (held in bonds) will receive a 20% 'haircut'. However, between 2021 and 2040 investors will receive up to 40 per cent of the value of Ukraine’s annual economic growth above 4 per cent, although total payments will be capped at 1 per cent for the first four years.    Ukrainian GDP is 177.4 billion USD ‎(2013) -by google search. It went down quite a lot in 2014; but the IMF projection is 134 bln USD in 2020. One percent of that in growth is 1.3 bln; such amount may be paid to investors for 20 years bringing 26 bln USD. Write-off amount is about 3.6 bln USD. This wonderful deal is called a 'win-win' by Ukrainian finance minister and the Guardian . Franklin Templeton is one of the largest investors involved. Russia has 3 bln USD in Ukrainian debt and is not participating in the deal.(Vasili Muravitskii/Cassad brought up this matter).

News Sources

 * Opolchenie version of events. Rusvesna-news (rusvesna.su, Russian),   (rusvesna.su, English) , (rusnext.ru, Russian).
 * Official Donetsk People Republic (DPR) news dan-news.info.
 * Oplot TV-Donetsk Live now, youtube channel vk Oplot TV
 * First Republican Channel-DPR youtube vk ('official channel of DPR', created in April 2014, and unofficially broadcasting some material online; possibly re-broadcasting Russia 24 in their vacant slots.
 * Lugansk People Republic (LPR) news: LPR Sovet (legislature) site, news, luganskallnews.ru,  news, lug-info.com


 * Ukrainian version of events: TSN (Ukraine)(Ukrainian or Russian), Channel 5 -Ukraine
 * Rada; President.


 * OSCE SMM-Ukraine
 * TASS Chronicle-link to daily updates, (Russian),  TASS  - Ukraine (English) (easiest to search).
 * Daily Press Briefings - US Department of State

English-language sources

 * DONI, based in Donetsk
 * TASS (Engl)
 * OSCE SMM

Documentaries

 * "Les masques de la revolution", Russian dubbed over French version, Feb. 1, 2016
 * 'Times of Donbass' (Italian/Russian), Jan 12, 2016

Opinion Polls

 * IRI poll, January 2016
 * Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), July 2015
 * 13,3% would vote for the party "Block of Petro Poroshenko"
 * 12,8% - for the All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland" (Yulia Timosenko)
 * 6,8% - for the party "Union Samopomich" (Sadovyi)
 * 5,8% - for the Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko,
 * 4,1% - for the party "Opposition block" (Boyko) --formerly 'Party of Regions'-Yanukovich
 * 3,1% - for the party "Civil position"
 * 3,0% - for the party "Right Sector"
 * 3,2% - have crossed all the parties /spoiled bulletin
 * 14,3% - chose not to vote,
 * 23,5% - hard to choose,
 * 2,6% - refusal
 * 2,6% - refusal


 * Source: Socio-Political Situation In Ukraine: July 2015. Report also have opinions on various peace/Russia issues, by region (English).


 * How Do The Attitude Of Ukrainians To Russia And Russians To Ukraine Has Changed


 * In DPR/LPR, polling is done by Center for Sociological Study 'Special Status' (Центр социологических исследований «Особый статус» -russ.) Here is their opening presentation.  Poll results are published by news sources.
 * DPR poll conducted in the beginning of August in 19 DPR towns, 5900 people took part, 5% statistical error
 * 43 % for DPR to join the Russian Federation (33.8% 3 months ago)
 * 17 % for DPR to be independent ('sovereign') (42.8 % 3 months ago)
 * 18 % for the 'creation of a joint state' (unclear what that would be exactly- some sort of autonomy aligned with Russia)
 * 11 % ('not more than')  for DPR as a part of Ukraine. 14.9 % see some future with Ukraine following Minsk agreements (18.8 % 3 months ago)

Abbreviations Used
DPR: Donetsk People Republic (prime minister: Alexander Zakharchenko)

LPR: Lugansk People Republic (head: Igor Plotniskii)

JCCC Joint Center for Control and Co-ordination, consists of Ukrainian and Russian military officers,- tries to mediate to have ceasefire implemented.

MLRS: Multiple Launch Rocket System, Grad/Uragan/Smerch. Uragan or Smerch typically have cluster munitions

UAF (=AFU): Ukrainian Armed Forces

NAF (=AFN): Opolchenie, Novorossia Armed Forces

OSCE: Organization for Security and Co‑operation in Europe

RSG: recon and subversion group

SMM: Special Monitoring Mission-OSCE