Ukraine news

Talk Pages  Main Ukraine Talk Page... Minsk Protocol.... Ukraine War Casualties...Odessa massacre......     MH17 Crash

Documenting Incidents, Human Rights violations

 * Interactive map of human rights violations, human rights NCO organization 'Just Defense' based in Moscow in partnership with Ombudsman-DPR -Daria Morozova (announcement video).

Analysis

 * Why They Are Killing Donbass? Novorossia TV with English subs. Blames consumerism, has very interesting cultural observations and quotations (incl late acad. Vladimir Arnold at 21:23 on educational reasons).

Blaming Ukraine
Gennady Korban (Kolomoiskii team) "ATO operation handling was a failure" ru.tsn.ua 'Korban made statements about corruption [...] and failed ATO handling'. Previously, criticized using heavy weapons in Donbass and suggested that at most police action is appropriate.

Blaming Russia

 * '(...) Lies about Ukraine', -Boris Nemtsov, Leonid Martyniuk-blames Russian Government (based on inaccurate or later reversed statements made at the official level).

Blaming the USA

 * Paul Craig Roberts ’ Address to the International Conference on the European/Russian Crisis Created by Washington', June 19, 2015. ...' Wolfowitz Doctrine...''The gullibility of the public has enabled Washington to establish the foundation for a new Cold War...' ' "Washington doesn’t want partners. Washington wants vassals" ' 'European governments and, of course, the lapdog UK government, are complicit in this implicit declaration of war against Russia and China. If it comes to war, Europeans will pay the ultimate price for the treason of their leaders [...] as Europe will cease to exist'.

Live Stream?
Live stream from Donetsk -Ustream.tv (a recording-now this stream is off-air)--Resup (talk) 22:05, 16 August 2015 (UTC)
 * Rusvesna article with linked stream


 * Television station OPLOT is streaming their broadcast live over YouTube, in 720p HD. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 03:17, 17 August 2015 (UTC) (linked is a new stream started 18 Aug. -R.)

November, 2015
10.11 UAF attempted to break through NAF under Debaltsevo; it is reported that small firearms and heavy weapons were used. 30 mortar shells were fired by UAF at the Donetsk airport. All this despite announced weapons withdrawal-verification of it is supposed to start today...

7.11 Central Donetsk shelled with Grads, a direct hit on a house, no casualties. DPR blames nats battalions not controlled by Kiev (said to be about 2000 fighters and up to 50 pieces of military equipment.

6.11 Normandy format meeting. "As a result of the talks, the conflicting sides could agree heavy weaponry pullout along the contact line in Donbas by the end of November-middle of December, and coordinate mine clearing operations in the conflict zone by the end of November, Steinmeier said" . Minsk implementation is extended into 2016.

3.11 Contact group anticipates that the last stage of weapon withdrawal will occur on 5.11; mortars are included. It is hoped that shelling will sharply diminish after that. However, due to recent increase in shelling, it is uncertain that the plan will be followed through.

Several days of reports of renewed firefights in the usual flash-points, this report saying that UAF renewed shelling of Kirov region of Donetsk, settlements of Staromikhailovka and Abakumova. This highlights danger of sliding back to hostilities, despite all agreements and heavy weapons pull off. Recent clashes said to involve small firearms, automatic grenade launchers, and mortars; the first two may be not covered by withdrawal agreements. Grad was also used by UAF. residential house was destroyed in Staromikhailovka, and fresh Grad shells were discovered when it was investigated.

1.11. A ranking of the richest people in Ukraine published by Novoye Vremya shows that all top ten oligarchs have lost wealth in the year since the last ranking, except one: President Petro Poroshenko who climbed from position nine to position six, increasing his net worth from 0.816 to 0.979 billion US$. The most dramatic losses were suffered by Rinat Akhmetov whose net worth shrunk by more than 50%, leaving him still in the top spot with 4.5 (formerly 10.1) billion US$.

October, 2015
31.10 Gennadiy Korban, Kolomoiskii ally, an energetic ex-deputy governor of Dnepropetrovsk under Kolomoiskii, and subsequently leader of a new 'Ukrop' party, was arrested (video)and taken to undisclosed location, as another party man Filatov is battling in local elections in Dnepropetrovsk against Vikul. Korban re-emerged (as reported by rusvesna ) to say that he is held in Kiev and will be prosecuted in Chernigov (a Poroshenko stronghold), on charges of embezzlement from ATO fund which he created, and kidnapping. Korban denies charges, claims numerous law violations in his arrest, and that charges are politically motivated.
 * 3.11 Ukrop party organised an opposition meeting in Kiev, several hundred people at the  time of report. Some tents were brought in, --said to be provided by Liashko party. Speakers at the meeting sharply criticized Poroshenko government for the overall state of affairs in the country.
 * Korban was released by Kiev court after 72 hours, as the law requires. He was than detained by security services who took him to an unknown destination -112.ua.
 * 6.11 Korban released under house arrest. Anthem of Ukraine is sang in court prior to that. (Photo from his apartment appears to show floor covered by US dollars, guarded by SBU)-rusvesna.

30.10. In Odessa mayor elections, Saakashvili protege lost to current mayor Trukhanov, ex party of regions man. Saakashvilli team launched a challenge claiming election violations, but that was denied in Odessa court.

25.10 Local elections in Ukraine proper. Voting in Mariupol was cancelled, apparently since ballot violations were discovered
 * Despite many violations reports, based on preliminary results, Opposition block (approximately former Party of regions) claims victory in 7 Eastern regions. Dark blue on the map means first place, blue is second, highlighted area means over 5% . In Slaviansk and Lisichansk, opposition won in the first round. In Dnepropetrovsk, Vikul and Filatov (of Kolomoiskii) advance to the second round. Kernes wins mayoral elections in Kharkov.

10.10 Kiev district of Donetsk was shelled by UAF, a multi-storey building was on fire, one polochenie member reported killed and 2 wounded. OSCE and JCCC representatives attended the scene.

Zakharchenko issued a decree moving election date to 20 April 2016, following Contact group meetings. According to Pushilin, the date is still preliminary and will depend on the progress.

2.10 Normandy format meeting ended in Paris. Under-100 mm weapons withdrawal is set to begin on October 3. Other matters were discussed, such as elections in Donbas, amnesty, air traffic restrictions imposed by Ukraine, Savchenko case, all with some progress but no clear-cut announcements to make. Talks to continue with FM meeting in November- TASS report. Poroshenko-Putin handshake video, - from Instagram post by François Hollande.

September, 2015
13.9 Poroshenko says that Ukraine started 'full demobilization of servicemen who defended sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine'; believes that a real ceasefire finally started. Talks about implementing Minsk framework; however replaces the agreed in Minsk sequence of steps-claims that border control needs to happen before the elections.

Steinmeier says that the seventh meeting in Normandy-Format finally brought some progress and agreements in the fields of removing weapons, implementing the political parts of Minsk, and humanitarian aid preparing for the cold season. Expresses optimism that the next planned meeting on October 2 in Paris will bring further progress. 6.9 MOD DPR: 9 violations in the past day, UAF used small firearms and mortars. Oktiabrskii district of Donetsk had most intense shelling, by mortars, from Peski.

4.9 A firefight in Marinka reported, tank fire and mortars used by UAF.

Purgin is dismissed from Speaker post of DPR parliament. Denis Pushilin is appointed acting speaker.

1.9 It is calmer, with fewer reports of shelling of DPR and LPR in the past day. However some Ukrainian heavy weapons are reported missing by OSCE

Zakharchenko: "I have examined what Poroshenko signed, he fully fulfilled his promise, removed all signs of independence of the territories"

August, 2015
31.8 Kiev. Rada approved in the first reading a decentralization law. After that, is is reported that protesters, carrying 'Svoboda' and 'Right Sector' banners, are trying to storm the Rada building and fighting the police (RT), (Rusvesna). A live grenade was thrown into police; 125 were injured, and two national guard soldiers were killed. According to Avakov, a member of the special MOI battalion "Sich" and Svoboda party member is believed to be the perpetrator, he and about 30 others were arrested.
 * Videos: Grenade thrown-Radio liberty video, drone footage, injured police scene, BBC report and video from the crowd level.

29.8 Hollande. Merkel, Putin had phone conversations. A new meeting of Normandy 4 leaders is planned; -the date is not set yet. Elections, fulfillment of Minsk were discussed. Full ceasefire from September 1 was supported

DPR MoD: In the last 24 hours, UAF fired 170 shells (32 artillery, 29 tank, 109 mortar) into civilian areas, 39 violations by UAF DAN news 27.8 POW exchange took place, 12 opolchenie for 11 UAF -Rusvesna report, photos, videos.
 * News Front video. One Ukrainian POW from Gorlovka decided to stay... Ruban taking part in exchange on Ukrainian side, Kononov for NOvorossia. Tells them not to come back with weapons, they are giving one chance.

Ukrainian social media reports claim that Ukraine lost 19 soldiers in overnight battle, in the area of Mariupol-Volnovakha.

DPR MoD: Ukraine fired 350 shells in 24 hours (114 artillery, 72 tank, 164 mortar)

In the meantime, the contact group expressed a shared desire to cease hostilities by September 1. 26.8 UAF once again renewed shelling of DPR/LPR cities, and used banned by Minsk agreement heavy artillery against Alexandrovka and Marinka, and shelled other towns, including tank fire directly hitting a civilian multi-storey house in Donetsk. Basurin issued another warning that Ukraine is seeking to restart hostilities, as well as disrupt peaceful life in the republics. Appeals to UAF not to follow criminal orders, not to support aggressive policies of Kiev; and an appeal to international community "to stop criminal actions of Poroshenko, who is seeking to start a new conflict in the East of Europe, and to drench Donbas in blood"  DNR Online, 26.8.2015 24.8 Normandy-3 to celebrate Ukrainian independence day in Berlin -photo op.

22.8 As a result of largely accidental clash, a small group of opolchenie took a settlment of Mikhailovka and a train station Marievka (map) in LPR. Opolchenie has 2 KIA. Details are expected tomorrow, current update by Rusvesna.

20.8 Assistant commander of the DPR armed forces Eduard Basurin: we received from UAF headquarters a plan of their attack (forwarded by some officer(s) against the war), a blitzkrieg starting in Mariupol and Debaltsevo, ending with Donetsk surrounded In the meantime, shelling of Donetsk resumed, there are wounded civilians.

Heads of local LPR administrations of Slavianoserbsk (Славяносербск), settlement of Metalist, and Veselaia Gora (Веселая Гора)  appeal to the Normandy-4 and OSCE . They say that Ukraine is not following Minsk agreement and recently shelling became more intense. They say that there desire is to leave in peace and to follow their own culture, language and traditions. They ask Normandy-4 and OSCE :
 * to call for Ukrainian President and Government to stop bloody madness and to pull their weapons from the separation line, in accordance with Minsk agreements;
 * to exercise control that Minsk agreements are fulfilled, and to bring those who are guilty of violations to justice (ответственность=(legal) responsibility, account) )
 * to provide legal and other help to those who suffered from violent actions by Ukrainian forces
 * rusvesna-text (russian) and video (with the same text read)

19.8.15 Meeting of experts in the Normandy-4 format is expected on 20.8. According to diplomatic sources, Russian side participants are: Director of the Legal Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry Alexey Dronov and deputy permanent representative of the Russian Federation to the OSCE,  Andrey Rudenko

OSCE press briefing in Donetsk, -embedded video.

16.8 DPR Ministry of Defense: UAF deployed 435 tanks, 132 MLRS, 830 artillery and mortar pieces.

Basurin: the concentration of so many proscribed weapons directly violating Minsk Agreement demonstrates the preparation of Kiev for a new phase of large-scale fighting. "We call on the international community to urgently take the necessary measures to prevent the inhuman and criminal intentions of Petro Poroshenko to unleash a new round of fighting and the genocide in Eastern Europe. Fire of another war in Europe is still possible to prevent ."

Zakharchenko: about 82 battalion tactical groups of UAF are deployed against us, that's about 65 thousand people. Their front lines are deployed in attacking formation, so there is no reason to believe it will all end in peace. Minsk agreements are broken. We have a lot of work to do: we have to win, we have to built our state, and make sure that life of our people is decent.

DPR suggested to OSCE a three step plan, (1) verification of withdrawal of weapons of 120 mm and over   (as DPR is still shelled from Grads), (2) observing, recording night-time shelling, with trips to the spot, affirmation of shelling incidents, and operative influence on the situation with phone calls to stop the shelling (3)  increasing efforts to sign the agreement on under 100 mm weapons withdrawal

A lot of shelling by Ukraine is reported, 578 shells fired according to DAN news, UAF violated ceasefire 49 times, fired 120 MLRS rockets, 129 artillery shells of caliber  152 and 122 mm, 54 tanks shells and 275 mortar grenade caliber 82 and 120 mm; grenade launchers and small firearms were also used.

Sartana (near Mariupol, and a place of earlier provocations) was shelled in the evening of 16.8. OSCE SMM concluded that the fire was from the East, with 120 or 152 mm artillery. Two residents were killed, 6 wounded. Zakharchenko stated that this could be done by Ukrainian forces, from their side of separation line. He also stated that remaining DPR weapons could not reach Sartana. DAN News, 19.8.15, OSCE SMM report, issued 18.8.15.

15.8.15 Two powerful explosions are reported (again) in the area of the chemical/ammunition factory in Donetsk

14.8.15 0:45 A.M. UAF ammunition dump exploded, location is given as a settlement of Pokrosvkoe.
 * 21:25 apparently unrelated ammunition dump explosion reported, in Artemovo, near Dzerzhinsk.

13.8.15 At 22:05, Ukrainian artillery, "from their positions in Mariupol suburbs, Talakovka, Orlovskoe", started to shell civilian areas on the separation line. Sahanka-Shirokino area was shelled from Vostochnoe in Mariupol and Talakovka. After that, UAF checkpoint in Orlovskoe (on the border of Volnovakha and Mariupol regions) "suddenly exploded". The reason was not explained. An Ukrainian volunteer described chaotic scenes and 'everything on fire"; commented that Ukrainian servicemen received their salary yesterday -report

It is said that Ukraine is attacking a village Styla, to the South from Donetsk. -Little information at this time.
 * Night of 12-13: Artillery duels reported in many places, in Volnovakha, Mariupol, Donetsk regions, and Marinka, Gorlovka, Avdeevka settlments.   Heavy shelling of Donetsk reported, three civilians are wounded and one killed, and houses destroyed- (DAN news) Rusvesna report, photos. OSCE denied that observers are leaving Donetsk (Rusvesna received a letter from OSCE and published a refutation of an earlier article suggesting that OSCE intends to leave Donetsk.)
 * DPR denied going on high alert -report and Basurin statement video. UAF violated ceasefire 59 times, fired 160 MLRS rockets, 82 artillery shells of caliber  152 and 122 mm, 57 tanks shells and 262 mortar mines caliber 82 and 120 mm (561 total count).

10.8.15 Ukrainian correspondent reports Ukraine attacking for the first time since February. In reality, advanced on a neutral village Novolaspa, breaking Minsk accord - report. Opolchenie is said to counter-attack and reverse this; 3 Right Sector and 1 UAF soldiers reported killed.
 * It is said that, following a recent clash, Kiev notified OSCE on their intent to return the artillery back to counter NAF ; and that Poroshenko asked for an urgent Normandy 4 meeting. (This is not on Poroshenko site, at this time)
 * Said to be reconnaissance by fire by Ukraine, hysterical reaction when NAF fought them back
 * Cassad photo report. Copies but unable to confirm a report in social media that a list of Novorossia supporters--- who should be allowed to pass the checkpoint easily-- was captured by Ukraine; terror  against those Novorossia supporters by Ukraine is feared.

Donetsk was shelled for over 12 hours, buildings were damaged. 5 houses destroyed in Gorlovka

9.8.15 OSCE vehicles in Donetsk damaged by fire, according to OSCE. Opolchenie blamed Ukrainian RSG group operating in Donetsk, increased protection.

A lot of shelling of Gorlovka throughout the day. Shelling of Donetsk also reported. 9.55 am local, Mariupol: Intermittent fighting with heavy weapons in the area of Sartana-Talakovka (nearby Shirokino); opolchenie denied that they are attacking, anywhere. News front gives a detailed report by hour. Civilian deaths reported (Gorlovka and Zaitsevo). Video news report (click on cc and select English in settings).

8.8.15 It is said that Ukraine attempted to break DPR defenses near Gorlovka and suffered heavy casualties

Plotniskii: " We should prepare, that if it can be done peacefully, by Minsk negotiations, to resolve the issues, so that blood of our soldiers is not spilled,--good then; and if not, then talking will be done by tanks and all that"

Report: on August 8, a firefight took place near Granitnoe village between  Ukrainian UAF and Right Sector units; leaving some 30 killed and 20 wounded 7.8.15 Donetsk under heavy fire by Ukrainian artillery overnight, some buildings on fire, electricity and water supply problems. Ukrainian howitzers and MLRS were moved towards Gorlovka, according to Novorossia reconnaissance reports.

5.8.15 Donetsk was shelled by UAF from Peski. Also, Ukrainian RSG fired three mortar shells from Artem and Bogdan Khmelnitskii st. intersection in Donetsk in the direction of city center. A shell landed in a flat on Kremlevskii prospect; a woman was killed. Another report, first recording Ukrainian shelling of Oktiabrskii district of Donetsk from Peski (tank fire and Vasilek), filmed from an opolchenie position. Opolchenie fires back using mortars. Later, a civilian house destroyed by Ukrainian fire is shown, and residents interviewed. Lost the house and all belongings; a child was shell-shocked. Ukrainian media will present all this as violations by opolchenie. Reality is that Ukaine is shelling civilians, and opolchenie tries to suppress Ukrainian firing positions.

Minsk- under 100 mm weapons withdrawal negotiations: the document is ready, but differences remain regarding several hot-spots. Opolchenie wants withdrawal in those areas first, because this is where the problem is. But Ukraine wants to do it last (claiming they are being attacked there apparently). Opolchenie suspects that Ukraine will try to gain more area in problem spots so that they can continue shelling Donetsk, despite announced withdrawal- rusvesna quoting Deinego.

4.8.15 In Minsk, security group meets today, but no show by Ukraine for the political one (dan-news).

An industrial giant - Novokramatorsk Engineering Works in Kramatorsk, Ukraine  has signed a major contract with the Russian company "Metalloinvest". The Kramatorsk company will make conveyors, crushing and transfer points, as well as the know-how of the plant - steeply inclined conveyor,  for the Mikhailovsky mining works, in the Kursk region of Russia. (Kramatorsk was left by Strelkov and Khmuryi on July 5, 2014) - Summary of rusvesna report, 4.8.15.

3.8.15 Gorlovka was shelled for several hours by UAF mortars and artillery. At around 22:00, near Svetlodar power station, ammunition explosion occurred at the UAF artillery position and lasted tens of minutes rusvesna report

Government in exile, aka "Committee to Save Ukraine" ('Комитет спасения Украины'-russ. ), have met, and blamed Ukraine for the current crisis. It includes former Rada deputy Oleinik, former PM Azarov, and former Rada deputy from Odessa Igor Markov.
 * Vladimir Markov was arrested in Italy and is fighting extradition to Ukraine. According to Oleg Tsarev, he has not been under an international arrest warrant, and his crime is being involved in a brawl, and the statute of limitations has already expired so he should not be arrested even in Ukraine.

Contact group meeting ended in Minsk, said to be continued by Skype. THe meeting was expected to finalize demilitarization of Shirokino, withdrawal iof under -100 mm weapons, and discuss political issues. Informal reports suggest that Ukrainian participants appeared to leave early/quickly. There are reports of upsurge in shelling of Gorlovka and Donetsk by UAF.

Earlier reports indicate that in recent days headquarters of 34 UAF battalion and an ammunition storage was hit near Gorlovka. 1.8.15 In the run-up to the next Minsk meetings (3 August), increased shelling by UAF and attempts to blame opolchenie for this were reported, starting July 27. Reports on shelling of Gorlovka and Donetsk by UAF come every day. 47 violations were reported in DPR on 31 of July. Rusvesna article reports that the US ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt will have his next meeting with the  governor of pro-Kiev part of Donetsk region Pavel Zhebrovskii in the city of Donetsk. (And wearing Shaktersk footbal club colored tie...) Sounds quite incredible...Hope they are planning to come there invited (that is not clear-cut actually)....
 * Announcement, on pro-Kiev regional administration site, 1 Aug. 2015 (ukr.) ...'Наприкінці зустрічі він подякував голові ОДА за можливість зустрічі та бачення перспектив подальшої співпраці. «У нас була змістовна, докладна розмова. Але найважливіша угода, якої ми достягли, що наша наступна зустріч відбудеться в Донецьку. З цієї нагоди я одягну свою краватку з символами футбольної команди «Шахтар» - пообіцяв Пайєтт'.   --Resup (talk) 17:39, 1 August 2015 (UTC)

July, 2015
31.7.15 OSCE: ' "We are seeing a significant build-up of military hardware on both sides of the line of contact, near it. We see the military preparations on both sides "TASS, quoting OSCE SMM assistant head Alexander Hug. Some social media commentators note the danger of fighting resumed in fall after freezing temperature sets in and back roads are easier to travel.

Georgii Tuka is appointed new governor of the Kievan Lugansk region. Formerly running a small IT company. Maidan supporter and volunteer helping supplies for ATO. Said to be one of those who created the widow-maker web site. He is a new person with nonstandard thinking and intolerance for corruption " according to Poroshenko.

29.7 Ukraine continues shelling Gorlovka. Incoming reports tell about civilians wounded, deaths not reported at this time.

Former Ukrainian prime minister Azarov is said to be planning a government in exile; will include Rada ex-deputies Markov, Oleinik, Tsarev. Announcement is expected tomorrow.

28.7 Basurin weekly update,   3 civilians and one opolchenie killed, and lots of shelling: 'Occupants shelled DPR  366 times over the past week; over 488  heavy artillery  rounds were fired only considering rounds which were fired into residential settlements across the country. The intensity of the attacks on the Ukrainian side for the past week amounted to 366 ceasefire violations. On the territory of Donbass, 488 artillery shells caliber 152 and 122 mm, 293 tank shells, 862 mortar rounds of  82 and 120 mm caliber. For the period from 20 to 27 July, settlements which suffered the most includes  Gorlovka, Logvinovo, Shirokaia Balka, Zaitsevo, Zhabichevo, Kalinovka, Nikolaevka, Lozovoe, and Kiev, Kuibyshev, and Petrovsky districts of Donetsk and the international airport. Ukrainian attacks this week claimed the lives of three civilians and six were wounded. In addition, in the line of duty one opolchenie  member was killed,  nine DPR soldiers were injured. Thus, Ukrainian occupants continue to grossly violate the Minsk agreement,  shelling   settlements, using artillery and mortars of a caliber over 100 mm, constantly provoking AF units of DPR to conduct combat operations. " Today, Pion heavy artillery 203 mm shells were fired into a factory in Donetsk 27.7 Alexandrov and Erofeev (Russians captured by Ukraine, 18.05.15 news item) are said to be exchanged for Ukrainian POWs gazeta.ru, quoting anonymous security sources . Attorney for the two, Oksana Sokolovskaia (Оксана Соколовская) previously talked about attempts in that direction, but was not available to comment on the latest reports.
 * SBU denied exchange. Earlier, MoD of Ukraine denied that exchange happened, but it appeared that some negotiations are still ongoing.

25.7 Scastie (Счастье =Happiness) in Luhansk region is surrounded by opolchenie, who gave Aidar and ultimatum to leave- report. Some said to leave, but some remain. There is a power station in Scastie, Aidar is threatening to blow it up,-that would affect large area of Lugansk and Ukraine. Under Minsk agreements, Scastie is supposed to be demilitarized.
 * 26.7 The OSCE delegation headed by the coordinator of the subgroup of Humanitarian Affairs of the Contact Group  Toni Frisch today came under mortar attack by Ukrainian security forces near the city of Schastie, when delegation tried to return to  Ukraine. This was reported by a source familiar with the situation.  "After the UAF fire stopped Frisch decided to return to Lugansk."   Had to seek cover, assisted by opolchenie, for about 2 hours despite making phone calls, according to  reports
 * OSCE twit -google translated: "SMM has confirmed that mortar fire hit near 2 OSCE cars  today in the south side of the bridge to Lugansk. SMM condemns incident" (so, once again, unable to determine direction?)

23.7 Ukraine made 120 mln $ eurobond payment avoiding default (at this time) 22.7 Poroshenko instructed (English) (Ukrainian) the members of the Contact Group from Ukraine to initiate signing the Agreement for establishing the 30-kilometer buffer zone along the contact line, which would include the removal of artillery, the remaining tanks, and mortars. "Thus, constant shelling in Severodonetsk, Rubizhne, Lysychansk, and Popasnaya will be impossible and cannonade will no longer be heard"   "The countdown will start in a few days and all heavy weapons will be withdrawn under the control of the OSCE."
 * Reports suggest little change as of 22.7

According to reports, UAF launched two tactical missiles, believed to be Tochka U, in the direction of Makeevka. It is reported that missiles were shot down by Novorossia air defense.
 * As of 24.7, those missile reports were not confirmed or denied officially. (Also: on 23.7, Russian humanitarian aid arrived to Makeevka).

Artillery shelling near Gorlovka reported. Also, chlorine smell-water treatment plant said to run into some problem -report

21.7 TASS quoting OSCE: withdrawal of under-100 mm weapons was agreed by contact group'. Shirokino demilitarization was another anticipated agenda item.

20.7 Opolchenie is in process of unilateral withdrawal of under-100 mm artillery and armored vehicles from separation line; in DP, 41 tanks and 84 BMPs were withdrawn on the first day, and 5 tanks and 77 BMP on the second; more is promised tomorrow. Withdrawals will be reversed if there are attempts to break their lines. In LPR, such weapons are withdrawn except at Scastie where situation remains tense.
 * Appears to be an attempt to make Minsk happen, with some signs of increased international backing (including US). Recently, Rada set in motion a law on special status for Donbas, with Nuland and US ambassador present for the event. However, the law was not discussed with DPR/LPR; and on that occasion just forwarded to the constitutional court of Ukraine for their recommendation. Pushilin noted that in his statements, Poroshenko rearranged the sequence of steps agreed in Minsk; -border control comes after all other steps, not the other way around.
 * OSCE is not entirely happy, as it is not known where exactly weapons are going and where they will be stored
 * No sign that Ukraine will do the same, at this point in time. Negotiations in Minsk about withdrawal details stalled, and opolchenie decided to try this unilaterally.

Right Sector (112.ua-source): "On July 21 at 19:00 at the Independence Square will be held Popular Assembly" Down with the traitors power! ". "Oligarchic power in the blood of the fighters came Maidan. Poroshenko promised a quick victory in the war in the Donbas, reform, fight against corruption and more. Instead we have the shameful agreement with the terrorists and the repression of the nationalists who seek to restore order in the state. The system requires revolutionary changes - and the rules of operation, and functionaries, and ideas for the sake of which the state acts. But the main thing - the will to change the entire system must have a majority of the population! Otherwise it will not work "- say the organizers.

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18.7 (1) Donetsk shelled-Cassad, with maps, photos, videos; 21:40 updae lists about 11 houses hit, including cardiology center -a doctor and patients said to be wounded. Rusvesna: 3 houses destroyed, civilian wounded, a hospital hit. (2) Avdeevka-second displayed video: residential multi-flat building is hit repeatedly by tank/self propelled artillery fire and this is filmed from a close distance. Filming crew makes crude jokes about the situation; are concerned not to have their faces shown as 'punishers' in pro-Russian press; and make comments suggesting it is 'our' fire (which they may be helping to direct). (3) Interview with a doctor at a cardiology center, 23 city hospital in Donetsk. Shelling started at 8:45 (she waves a hand to show from where). She was helping taking patience away from windows and into a corridor. Shortly after, a shell hit a roof, shattering glass. She was wounded in the leg. Bomb shelter exists but not near and evacuating cardiology patients was too risky.

DPR/LPR proposed to withdraw the under-100 mm weapons by 3 kilometers, except the problem areas; and proposed to negotiate on problem areas, but with those representatives who have real power and authorization.

15.7 Pushilin denied reports on MoD of DPR being disbanded, and denied that Zakharchenko is to step down.

Moskal appointed Transcarpatia regional head? - report. It is said that Moskal was contacted and neither confirmed nor denied, referring back to president office. Mukachevo, place of recent deadly clash of Right Sector and police, is in Transcarpatia, explaining sudden appointment plans

14.7 Intense shelling of Donetsk, Gorlovka reported (report and videos); also Debaltsevo suburbs shelled by UAF artillery.

Two laws signed by Zakharchenko, on social and state support of miners and mining; and on auctions for rights to use natural resources-decided by the largest amount of one-time payment (rights are not transferable, cannot be inherited)

It is reported that MoD of DPR was disbanded, what remains is people's militia (like in LPR). Said to be of little practical significance as military activities are directed by militia corps anyway; political background, if any, remains to be seen.

Two failed assassination attempts in Donetsk: on a secretary of Zakharchenko ( Elena Philopova; she survived), and Yurii Sivokonenko, --at one point a candidate for the post of DPR head and now a union of veterans leader (he was wounded). Ukrainian RSG were blamed by 'Svobodnyi Donbas' party; possible internal strife was discussed in social media and by bloggers

DPR deputy minister of taxation Mikhailov was arrested in Rostov-on-Don, Russia. Intelligence Division of the Republican Guard of DPR was briefly cordoned off; that was removed in about an hour.

-Roundup NewsFront, English subs, video:  Lvov: Rights Sector is said to have de-facto control of the city; two explosions occurred near police stations, two people were wounded-- RS denied responsibility. Avakov stated MoI us preparing documents to strip Yarosh of deputy immunity because of his role in Mukachevo events. Not all Right Sector forces are prepared to joint UAF, although some did.

13.7 It was said that Ukrainian journalist Margarita Valenko was shot and killed] in Kiev; however later the news were denied. Facebook announcement was amended to reflect this.

Tor (SA-15 'Gauntlet') missile warhead fired by Ukraine was discovered near railroad station in Donetsk, after Ukrainian shelling -DAN news report. (Lighter than Buk, still allows to hit a plane at 10 km height. Ukraine is known to have it, although Russian wikipedia lists is as being in disrepair. Some were reportedly sold by Ukraine to USA and re-assembled for training purposes). (Tor launch video)

12.7.15 Standoff between administration and Right Sector continues, following confrontation at Mukachevo. It is reported that Right Sector battalions withdrew from ATO area, and were placed on stand-by at their bases; and that over 10,000 activists were mobilized- TASS, Cassad, mukachevo.net/ua updates, photos, videos

UAF artillery shelled   Donetsk from Peski; fighting in Spartak -artillery and mortars used. Firefights in Gorlovka, artillery sound heard from the West.

11.7.15 In the past 24 hours, UAF violated ceasefire 35 times, including heavy artillery use. 80 Grad missiles were fired into Donetsk suburbs from the positions of Ukrainian battalion 'Kievan Rus' (territorial defense battalion under the operative control by UAF, Alexey Savich is the commander). More UAF MLRS movement towards separation line, in violation of Minsk agreements, was detected by DPR reconnaissance.

A clash between police and Right Sector in Mukachevo, Trancarpatian region, Ukraine. 8 policemen reported wounded, 3 militants killed, 5 wounded. Right Sector announced demonstrations/pickets in several regional centers

10.7.15 10 x 10 prisoners exchange with LPR, said to be the first since February. Ukraine soldiers were healthy, say they were treated well. Some were captured in Fall; some later, in Debaltsevo. Do not plan to take part in civil war in the future; did not realize the nature of the war initially-thought they are defending. LPR prisoners were able to walk themselves-which was not always the case in the past. One was wounded and needed medical attention.

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Kiev region of Donetsk is under intense fire by UAF, in the airport area and Peski there is an intense battle, with artillery used. After 19:30, UAF fired heavy artillery from Novosёlovki hitting the Kiev district of Donetsk. Around ​​17:00 Ukrainian invaders  began shelling the area of ​​the airport of Donetsk and Putilovka with heavy artillery, from the direction of the Vodianoe. At the same time under  Gorlovka, near Shirokaia Balkas  firefights  began with mortars, automatic grenade launchers and heavy machine guns. "Vostok" brigade of DPR counter-attacked under Spartak and Peski, using captured armored vehicles.

9.7.15 Russian Investigative Committee opened 54 criminal cases, gathered 2500 volumes of evidence. It is  ready to transfer these materials to  any international court. But it will continue its investigation. (Translated from Russian)

Russian Ministry of Justice: The arbitrage claim of the PrivatBank controlled by Ukrainian billionaire Igor Kolomoisky to Russia "for the Protection of the lost investments in Crimea" is unfounded and Russia does not recognize the jurisdiction of international arbitration in the consideration of the dispute  - google translation. More details on the claim-google translate (Permanent Court of Arbitration in Hague is the one which recently awarded 50 bln $ to Yukos shareholders. Russia does not recognize its jurisdiction; may appeal).

Bloomberg news: Ukraine risks not having enough natural gas in storage to last it through the winter after reducing imports from the European Union and suspending purchases from Russia. “The country is most likely waiting for international aid in financing, as well as for more favorable gas prices and exchange rates ” (some gas prices history)

8.7.15 Zakharchenko and Plotniskii issues an appeal to UN to establish a tribunal to prosecute war crimes committed in ATO operation in Donbass -report and video (Russian) (TASS-English) Appeal was supported by the Russian parliament.

OSCE PA adopted anti-Russian resolution, introduced by Ukraine and Canada. Russian delegation was not present (Naryshkin and 5 others were refused entry visas) 7.7.Two civilians, a mother and a on, killed by UAF shelling in a village of Svobodnoe -report, video

6.7 Saakashvilli: American policemen from California will train new Odessa police. Also, in the framework of anti-corruption surge, American government agreed to provide funds for salaries of the new Saakashvilli team Facebook post, -Rusvesna translation to Russian, photos with US ambassador to Ukraine. (Other reports quote US ambassador Pyatt saying that Odessa will be 'a laboratory for US support of core anti -corruption reforms). According to Saakashvilli (reported by TASS) his previous salary in the US was 200 K US $ -presumably this is said now so that such level of funding is matched; not a volunteer job at any rate.
 * 25.6 Reports apparently show a copy of a letter from a US senator to Yatseniuk, describing discussions, recommendations of Ukrainian government appointments by US senators. Unverified; no official confirmation, or otherwise, of authenticity of the letter. Posted   by former Yanukovich administration  FOM of Ukraine head Leonid Kozhar.

5.7 Trade Union House  in Odessa, the site of  the massacre, in which dozens of anti-maidan activist were murdered, will be used as headquarters  of the Ukrainian Navy. 4.7 Kiev in violation of heavy weaponry clause in E. Ukraine - OSCE “In the last few weeks, our observers as well as drones recorded the presence of heavy weapons in areas controlled by the government, which is a violation of the demarcation line terms regarding the withdrawal of heavy weaponry,” OSCE Deputy Chief Monitor Alexander Hug said at a briefing in Mariupol. At the same time, he noted that there has been an uptick in military equipment around Komsomolskoe, which is controlled by DPR.

From latest SMM report: “SMM did not observe any DPR presence in Shyrokino" (confirming unilateral withdrawal).

Two senior traffic police officers (Donetsk natives) defected from Ukrainian-controlled Mariupol to DPR

3.7 Right Sector protest march in Kiev, tires burned on Grushevskaia Street. Accuse current leadership in betraying Maidan (earlier it was said protest is against Minsk agreements) (rusvesna), Sharii-with photos from Twitter.

2.7.15 '''DPR, LPR announced decentralization, local elections, in unilateral fulfillment of Minsk, in parallel -but without a coordination- with Kiev. '''

Alexander Zakharchenko has officially announced the date of the local elections in DPR. They will take place on 18 October. "Pursuant to paragraphs. 4 and 12 of the Minsk package of measures (to implement the agreement in Minsk on February 12, 2015) local elections throughout the DPR to be held on October 18 of this year,  "- said the head of the DPR. According to him, the elections, as required by paragraphs. 4 and 12 of the set of measures will be "on the basis of the Law of Ukraine" On temporary order of local government in some regions of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, "to the extent not inconsistent with the Constitution and laws of the DPR" ...

The elections will be organized with the fundamental provisions of the draft law of Ukraine on elections developed by the DPR and LPR and sent to Minsk Contact Group within the "dialogue on the modalities of the local elections" in accordance with para. 4 of Minsk set of measures, summarized Zakharchenko. 'The President of DPR expressed confidence that these measures will "not only  preserve the Minsk peace process, but also to give it the proper dynamics." Representatives of Ukraine participated in the discussion and coordination of all the above decisions' (The latter is similar to Poroshenko claiming that Donbas representatives were consulted in developing constitutional amendments).

LPR is coordinating similar unilateral Minsk implementation steps  with DPR.

Decentralization was announced by LPR and DPR.

Decentralization was also recently independently announced by Kiev.

1.7.15 Leadership of Donetsk People's Republic has decided to declare the village Shirokino of Novoazovskiy district a demilitarized zone, according to deputy chairman of the People's Council Denis Pushilin. This will be further discussed at Minsk working groups meetings. At present civilians are evacuated from Shirokino because of constant shelling; many houses are destroyed. It is said that civilians would like to return back.
 * Basurin: DPR withdrew troops from Shirokino. Earlier announced discussions on implementation of this step with OSCE.

June 2015
29.6 Foreign drone operators photographs, made themselves during testing, found on a Ukrainian drone intercepted by LPR-report. Not Ukrainian style uniform; and one operator said to be photographed earlier when Georgia attacked Abkhazia

28.6 Ukraine my default on 24 July-date of the next substantial repayment day, according to a report on Russian TV, referring to opinions of analysts -Goldman Sachs report mentioned (developing)

Joint Centre for Control and Coordination (JCCC) asked OSCE to perform radiation control in Donetsk (rusvesna quoting jccc and ATO press center). Repeated powerful explosions at Donetsk chemical plant, caused by UAF firing heavy missiles, are near nuclear waste storage facility; this may lead to a disaster.

27.6 The Ukrainian authorities have not fulfilled any of its obligations with respect to the special order -Zakharchenko. DPR/LPR were not consulted; instead, Kiev consulted Western experts, in particular Venetian commission of the Council of Europe (the commission conclusion noted there are no provisions for special regulations, allowing to adopt laws to Donetsk and Luhansk regions).
 * DPR/LPR sent their proposed changes (Constitutional Amendments), (on local elections), (amendments to special governance law). Those proposed changes were not adopted (or even  discussed) by Kiev.
 * Poroshenko used 'representatives of Donbas' of his, or Kiev choosing to pretend that Minsk agreement was followed. He was reminded that by Minsk 1, only DPR/LPR leaders are such representatives. "Without their written consent, constitutional amendments by Kiev cannot be considered to be in fulfillment of Minsk agreements"-Pushilin, DPR representative at Minsk negotiations.

26.6 2015 01:20 (Moscow) Putin calls Obama. Ukraine, Syria, Iran discussed; countering IS emphasized- (Kremlin readout-google translated) (White House readout)

25.6 UAF General-major, 6 other UAF officers, all from Donbas, change sides, join opolchenie -video (English captions). Say army should not be used in civil war/against civilians.

23.6 Two civilians killed by Ukrainian shelling.

Little progress in Minsk. Kiev did not present proposals on special status or local elections in Donbas

Poroshenko: The initiators of creating any republics will be brought to justice, should anyone try, the response will be instantaneous

Media reports: Europeans demand that we come up with a strategy for the special status for the Donbas region. This status must not be limited to three years (the way it is envisaged in the law on the status of separate territories) and be applicable on a permanent basis," first deputy head of the parliamentary committee on foreign affairs Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze said.

Martin Sajdik (the new OSCE representative in the Trilateral Contact Group) will visit Moscow on 22 June, meet Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin.

19.6 MCCain arrives to Dnepropetrovsk, meets Dnepr 1 (aka 'Kolomoiskii') battalion, Bereza commander -report, photos


 * Funeral ceremony of 16 years old girl, victim of the shelling in Gorlovka by Ukrainian Forces, text/video Anastasia died on 17th June, she got wounds as a result of shelling committed by Ukrainian punitives on 10th June and she struggled for her life the entire week. Ukrainian battalion fired on Gorlovka from Dzerzhinsk, doctors did everything possible to save girl.

US, EU Ready Tough Russia Sanctions...-NY Times
 * Sanctions are illegal, semi-criminal - Naryshkin, Speaker of the Russian State Duma

New Odessa MOI boss, Saakashvilli teammate from Georgia, ordered checkpoints closed, machine guns returned to storage'. -Those officers are 'too corrupt', "people need not be afraid of police and should respect law..." In the meantime, Saakashvilli [http://www.charter97.org/ru/news/2015/6/19/156279/ threatened to fire customs officers 'if the income will not increase'.

18.6 US Senate passed defense bill, 300 mln for arming Ukraine, (US News), (TASS)-- (Rob Portman amendment). "Half of that $300 million is fenced off until at least $60 million is spent on the most important capabilities the Ukrainians need and have requested: real-time intelligence, defensive lethal assistance, and counter-artillery radars. If the Administration fails to use this money for the purposes specified, they must use it to support other nations facing an increased risk of Russian aggression"- (June 10, 2015 press release).

Nalivaichenko gone, replaced by Vasilii Gritsak -currently head of the Anti-Terrorism Center of SBU - first deputy head of the SBU; works for SBU since 1990

17.6 Renewed Ukrainian shelling from Marinka, mortars, self-propelled artillery used; fire returned (UAF casualties, 12 people estimate). Opolchenie hit under Yasinovataia (casualties). Fighting in LPR (Zolotoe; explosions heard in Stanitsa Luganskaia

16.6 Contact group meeting: no breakthrough TASS (engl.). In the Russian version: under-100 mm weapons withdrawal almost agreed; (only) technical matters remain. (Tagliavini was there for OSCE; said her successor was already found; Азамат Кульмухаметов -Azamat Kulmuhametov is a new face for Russia--previously had a good look on Syria ).

Poroshenko tells Rada that he is not happy with Nalivaichenko work in  SBU, and that he agreed to lead foreign intelligence instead; but he is not yet removed from SBU (that is decided by Rada). All this happens in the background of conflict between Nalivaichenko and prosecuting attorney office  and before Nalivaichenko trip to the US, to present to congressmen and experts 'evidence of Russian involvement' in the conflict in Donbas. 15.6 Kerry-Lavrov phone conversation (google translate) stressed need to stop shelling, fulfill Minsk. Syria, Iran, and other issues also discussed.

Over the weekend, OSCE SMM recorded 594 blasts near Donetsk airport and another 180 in  Shirokino -rusvesna.

A member of the Ukrainian Embassy in France and a member of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (SVRU) refused to work for the Ukrainian authorities because of disagreement with the policy of Kiev. Called ATO operation a genocide.

A meeting in Donetsk, Oktriabrskii district residents asking to protect them from shelling, start an offensive against UAF. Zakharchenko arrived and calmed them down by promising housing in safer parts of the city.
 * 10 civilians were wounded in UAF shelling overnight in Donetsk; opolchenie returned fire, destroyed 4 UAF batteries shelling the city
 * Graham video from the meeting (English captions): Donetsk residents tell about shelling by Ukraine, harsh living conditions, (no pensions from Ukraine). Blame Kiev, say that Minsk not fulfilled, heavy Ukrainian weapons not moved; wonder when this all will end, ask for help. (At the meeting, Zakharchenko made a list of concrete problems/requests, was able to resolve what can be resolved).
 * Cassad, "On horrible and strange war". A woman from Donetsk report : ... 'You understand that your personal life is not worth anything at all. You and your child - just a target. And behind a human shield of you and your family, someone sweet eats, well sleeps, decides on splitting Donbass profits, sells arms, satisfies political ambitions on the international scene and in the media, including LiveJournal'...

Odessa. Meeting against Saakashvilli, for releasing political prisoners, and calling for commemoration of 2 May 2014 victims. Earlier Saakashvilli laughing-off -his twit announced medals to 'maters heroin' (heroine mothers).

Large-scale fire at an oil depot in Vasylkivska district of Kiev region began in the evening of Monday, June 8. Five people were killed and 18 injured. According to Avakov, the losses are more than one billion hryvnia (about $ 48 million). GSCHS can not predict when it will be able to extinguish the fire (but it mostly burned out by now)- TASS, 15.6. Ukrainian-origin sabotage for financial gain is suspected

14.6 Ukraine moves Pions, heavy long range self-propelled 230 mm artillery 'towards Donetsk'-video. Increased fighting in Mariinka, shelling of Donetsk reported.


 * 13.6 A woman and a child killed in Gorlovka

U.S. Poised to Put Heavy Weaponry in East Europe- NY Times 'The “prepositioned” stocks — to be stored on allied bases and enough to equip a brigade of 3,000 to 5,000 soldiers — would be similar to what the United States maintained in Kuwait for more than a decade after Iraq invaded it in 1990 and was expelled by American and allied forces early the next year'.

Foreign military equipment crossed the border of Hungary and Ukraine, said to be related to US-Ukraine joint exercises. However there is a speculation that Uragans could be transferred to Ukraine on those heavy military trucks, and the trucks themselves returned back. From a re-post on Cassad: "One of our readers sent  to the Carpathian Vestnik magazine the photos below. The images were taken at a border checkpoint Záhony 06.09.2015 at noon on the Hungarian side. Special convoy of vehicles came from Ukraine. We tried to ask for information in the Border Police, but, unfortunately, we have not yet received an answer"

A law is introduced in Rada which would fully [block all goods transfer to Novorossia including first necessities, food, and medicine  according to commentaries of Medvedchuk, Plotniskii quoted by Rusvesna.

12.6 Concerns grow over possible escalation in Transnistria over border transit closure with Ukraine, heavy weapons moved to Odessa, foreign advisers and Saakashvilli on hand: described in an article 'war in Transnistria may start on Day of Russia (June 12 )'--(well, or on any other day thereafter)

11.6 Offensive weapons: The US Senate has "included provisions in its military policy bill to arm Ukraine with anti-armor systems, mortars, grenade launchers and ammunition to aid in its fight against Russian-backed separatists. It would also prevent the administration from spending more than one half of $300 million in aid for Ukraine unless 20 percent is earmarked for offensive weapons. The House has passed a similar measure" -NY Times

Poroshenko appoints new Kievan-Donetsk regional head Pavlo Zhebrivskyi, lots of military fatigues posturing during Donetsk visit. Economic blockade of Novorossia to continue

10.6 'US envoy (Samantha Power) meets Poroshenko as concerns for Ukraine grow'- reliefweb ,president.gov.ua. Powers cites not knowing true Putin intentions to call for more sanctions on Russia

The U.S. House passes amendments to the "Department of Defense Appropriations Act of 2015" that prohibit the sending of MANPADS to Ukraine and the training of the Azov Battalion which the initiator John Conyers called "repulsive" and characterized as "neo-Nazi".

40 violations of ceasefire by Ukraine reported, MLRS, tan fire, mortars, small arms used.

9.6 Blockade of Transnistria reported-imports, exports, and people movement blocked by Ukraine; Ukrainian military presence at the border reported to be increased.

Gorlovka shelled, 5 houses destroyed, 2 civilians wounded

'Donetsk, Luhansk self-proclaimed republics ready to remain part of Ukraine'-TASS, and without proposing an amendment on Crimea (listed as Ukrainian in Ukrainian constitution. Republics say that this is not an issue in their competence). The West and Ukrainian media pretend that did not happen (Ukrainian media: even militants consider Crimea part of Ukraine--dropping the rest of the story).
 * Proposed changes to constitution of Ukraine. Briefly, self-rule for LPR and DPR -being able to decide themselves all important local issues ( economy, public order,cross-border cooperation, language, etc); keeping current elected leaders and deciding this themselves in the future; dropping time limitations in the Ukrainian law on special order of local self-governance; non-block status for Ukraine (i.e no NATO).  Ukraine is supposed to promote cooperation aimed at economic development of the region,-details to be  negotiated in separate economic agreements.
 * LPR, DPR announced that they are dropping parts of amendments mentioning Crimea, ask to adopt the rest without delay.
 * Ukraine pretended that everything is recalled by LPR/DPR, not just the Crimea part
 * On 17.3 Rada adopted changes to law on special governance, saying that special governance will start after special elections based on laws of Ukraine

Graham Phillips post (POW Roman Mashchenko)

7.6 G-7 meeting. At G-7 meeting, Obama’s primary task is confronting his Putin problem- Washington Post

6.6. It is reported that Heidi Tagliavini will step down. DPR expressed regret. Replacement not named yet.

A few hundred protesters gathered near the building of Lvov regional state administration with banners "Special status for Galicia!", "Poroshenko needs to answer!" "Where Is Europe?" The main demands of protesters – to make Poroshenko answer before the people of Ukraine for the critical condition of the country. And demands of a special status for Galicia report, photos; -translated at Fort Rus

5.6. 9 civilians, 35 DPR soldiers killed in one week

Zakharchenko statement and forward-looking statement. Says they were attacked, counter-attack, and gained a bit of ground. Considers this not to be violation of Minsk as they were attacked.

3.6 As of time of the report, 5 civilians are killed, 24 wounded; 14 NAF soldiers are killed, 86 wounded. Twenty civilian houses were damaged by UAF shelling in Donetsk.

All water supplies are cut to Luhansk by Ukraine

Basurin: "We do not conduct offensive operations" TASS-English

Deteriorated situation, casualties reported. UAF used heavy weapons. Intense shelling or fighting in Mar'inka near Donetsk reported (conflicting reports, with sides blaming each other).
 * Basurin report, describes this as provocation by UAF. State Department blames opolchenie and Russia. Kremlin expressed concern with deteriorating situation.
 * Opolchenie reports: Ukrainian forces attempted to break through DPR positions in Mar'inka and Spartak (north Donetsk); were repelled and counter-attacked.  Ukraine used tank fire, Grads, artillery (those were not supposed to be there by Minsk agreement, and Ukraine  notified partners about the violation. Subsequent developments appear to head back to observing Minsk)
 * Lavrov: "Minsk agreement on February 12, is under constant threat of failure because of the actions of the Kiev authorities, trying to escape from their obligations to establish a direct dialogue with the Donbas"
 * Cyberberkut published details, photos, of earlier UAF violations-those were known to Ukraine and the West.
 * UN Security Council meeting announced this Friday, requested by Lithuania
 * OSCE SMM report,3.6.15

1.6 Donetsk  shelled by UAF, about 20 explosions heard

May 2015
26.5 UAF shelling resulting in civilian deaths are reported: Zaitsevo, near Gorlovka a woman is killed, another wounded. Gol'movskii, near Gorlovka:Two civilians, a father and 11 years old daughter, killed and a mother lost an arm. (database entry)
 * 26.5- Two rather strongly worded videos from Gorlovka, by opolchenie member 'Texas' (said to be an American), and by the grandmother (strong language-viewer discretion advised)

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 * Graham interview with the mother, Anna Tuv

25.5 Interview with opolchenie member from Israel-served in IDF, studied in Donetsk, call sign 'Mossad', Israel 24 news (in Russian). Felt that he had to join opolchenie seeing what is going on. They discuss that in Israel news do not provide an accurate picture.

Ukrainian official responsible for national and ethnic policies, Gennady Druzenko, proposed to replace Ukrainian nationalism by 'European Americanism' centered in Ukraine.

31.5 Basurin describes foreign military presence in Ukraine. In settlement Verhnetoretskoe, up to a  company (from 60 to 100 people) from "Georgian volunteer battalion was detected.  At the checkpoint, Veterok ("breeze"), between Gorlovka and Dzerzhinsky,  a company of US troops and Poland was detected. Polish PMC (private military company) detachments were recorded in Dzerzhinsk, Dimitrov, Slavic, Myronivsky, Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk in the territory of dispensary-hostel "SKMZ" on the street. Kim, the total number of staff  is up to 1,000 people. In  Krasnogorovka, on the territory of a collective farm garden, there are two companies of the volunteer battalion "Ichkeria " (Chechnya). In a settlement Lastochkino, there is a  PMC battalion  (up to 800 people), most of them  are black. Also, two platoons of black soldiers were identified in Slavnoee. On the territory of the psychiatric hospital in Yasnobrodovke volunteers from Arab countries  were identified. ( Basurin raised possibility this is ISIS). "In the port of Odessa we recorded the arrival of 14 strike force UAVs from Israel with the staff of special units. It was found that retired Israeli army will serve in the battalion of MIA of Ukraine" Angrif ", according to Basurin. "These findings suggest that the Ukrainian leadership due to the low morale of troops APU focuses on foreign PMCs that may be involved in subversive work in Donbass", - concluded Basurin.

30.05 Marinka. Ukrainian troops began a reconnaissance in force; the attack bogged down by Marinka. According to the Center for operational cooperation 2 UAF combat vehicles destroyed, 2 UAF killed, 5 - "medical losses", 14 wounded.

Mikhail Saakashvilli, former president of Georgia, is appointed governor of Odessa (talk) region by Poroshenko. Poroshenko quoted personal trust and long acquaintance as reasons. Oleg Tsarev: "this is a powerful decision by Kiev... Saakashvili  made in  Georgia "reforms"  modeled on liberal dictatorships in Latin America, the meaning of which is very simple: the rich are made richer, money is invested in  spot show-off projects, skyscrapers, police stations with transparent walls, and the rest of the country is sinking into poverty, unemployment and prohibitive prices. Saakashvili planted in Georgia atmosphere of terror and repression, some Georgian politicians died in mysterious circumstances, and former prisoners complained of torture in the prisons of his regime...Now Petro tries  to kill two birds at the same time displacing from Odessa henchmen of Kolomoisky, and replace them with a famous stranger, whose sole support (except Washington) will be Kiev, rather than local officials, with whom you never know what  position they will take, if something happens. But for people,-- why the people need any of that?" I'd say, Saakshvilli has good presentation skills and can choose words and appearances to make good initial impression (walking with roses to democracy, etc); but  long-term and on substance, it appears closer to what Tsarev is saying, based on past history. In Georgia, after he lost presidency,  several criminal cases were opened against him, including  spending public money  for personal benefit (to the tune of  6 mln $), and ill-treatment of opposition.  He than left Georgia to escape lawsuits. In Odessa, Saakshvilli starts with a reform message, bringing new young people, fighting corruption, fixing roads; all sounds good, but what matters are deeds, not words.
 * In Russia, opposition media highlight his quick (and iron-fist) reform style, and rule of law emphasis (interesting to see how that will work against the Right Sector). Brief characterization of his style: "American." (Like Sarkozy the "American", maybe)
 * General Reshetnikov on Cassad: Saakashvilli may be involved in setting Ukraine-Moldova play on Transdniester. That may draw Russia directly into the conflict.

29.05 Poroshenko visited Ukrainian areas of Donbas, reiterated that he would hold a dialogue "only with those persons who will be elected by the Donetsk region citizens at the upcoming local polls." Poroshenko told the 8th Kiev security forum on Thursday that he would hold a dialogue only with "the other Donbas." Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk also said Kiev was ready to talk to the DPR and LPR leaders "only when they are behind bars." The Donetsk republic’s envoy at the Minsk talks, Denis Pushilin, expressed concerns over this Ukrainian leader’s statement saying it comes ahead of the June 2 meeting of the Contact Group. "Poroshenko by his statements denounces his signature that he put in Minsk upon the guarantees of Germany and France and announced plans to comply with the Minsk agreements. Now he says that he is not going to do this," Pushilin said.

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 * Video report from Shirokino. Ukraine and opolchenie control parts of the settlement. Lots of sound- small arms fire all the time, sniper fire, occasionally heavy arms. Ukrainian snipers became quite good with ricochet fire so even behind walls is  dangerous.

28.05 Kharkov mayor Gennady Kernes: "Avakov was involved in my assassination attempt" Kernes was shot at on 28 April 2014; he was hospitalized. He first made the claim against Avakov in summer 2014. Currently he is on trial, accused of murder threats and hostage taking attempts (rusvesna).

26.05 Ukrainian punishers subjected residential areas of Gorlovka to heavy fire from mortars and heavy artillery. According to the Ministry of Defense of the People's Republic of Donetsk,  punishers'  victims were three civilians killed in the city, including 11-year-old girl and her father. The wife of the deceased lost a hand as a result of the shelling,  their other two children - a boy and a baby girl - were also injured. (rusvesna -report and photos from Gorlovka)
 * Zakharchenko: President Poroshenko, who signed  Minsk-2, blatantly deceived not only us, but also the inhabitants of his country and the world. DPR until now clearly fulfilled all its obligations. "We reserve the right to act at our discretion", - concluded Zakharchenko.

23.05 Basurin: UAF in ATO area is upgraded to an assault strength level. "In the area of punitive action adversary concentrated up to 45 thousand troops, 380 tanks, 1,800 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 980 field artillery pieces and MLRS, and up to 75 combat aircraft and helicopters".

23.05 Mozgovoi killed ... SUV ambushed near Mikhailovka, LPR. 2 guards, chief of the guards-call sign Pesnia (Song), and his press-secretary killed with him. Confirmed by his assistants. Mine exploded under his mini-bus; then machine-gun fire from 4 positions.
 * Lifenews Zhuchkovskii newsfront rusvesna


 * Press-conference of Luhansk police. Started murder investigation; suggest that it was done Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage group. This happened at a place nearby previous assassination attempt (previous attempt was when he was returning from Luhansk to Alchevsk) . Plotniskii made a statement, -attack on all of us-ordered to find killers.
 * Ukrainian RSG was liquidated in Luhansk, one person captured


 * His 'Ghost" brigade vowed to continue his fight
 * Ukraine tried to blame Russia (Gerashenko facebook post), and tried to make an impression it was the work of 'Ukrainian partisans' ('shadow'-Alexander Gladkii-korrespondent.net --they made after-the-news  items claims in the past, claiming credit after press reports of attempts on Zakharchenko and Givi -- interview at zn.ua, 9.2.15)

23.05 DPR released Cyborg commander Oleg Kuzminyh DPR news (Poroshenko: released, not exchanged)

22.05 Ukraine continues shelling: artillery shelling of Gorlovka, Shirokino, Donetsk and the airport; tank and mortar shelling of Veselaia Gora(near Luhansk) ,

Ukrainian column of Uragans is filmed near Luhansk

Ukraine walked out of an agreement with Russia, joined Moldova in blocking Russian peacekeepers in Transdniester;  placed S 300 battery in Odessa region (threatening  supply by air) - (rusvesna)

21.05 The Ukrainian parliament has backed a decree allowing the country to rescind human rights

20.05 Basurin: 40 foreign mercenaries (private military company) arrived to Mariupol.

19.05 "Kerry Helped Free U.S. 'Spies' Trapped in Ukraine"- bloombergview.com

19.05 LPR-Zolotoe and Katerinovka, near Popasanaia:  UAF troops crossed separation line and came under fire. It is reported that 6 UAF were killed and 6 wounded as a result. Firefight and/or explosions reported in Donetsk airport.

18.05 Two Russian citizens, serving as volunteers with peoples militia of LPR, were wounded and captured by SBU. ID of one of them, recently issued by LPR -peoples militia- was shown (Cassad). LPR militia commander demanded their release. Russian MOD stated confirmed that they were not active service members at the time of their arrest, although had military training; and that they, and Russian special forces veteran association, are "very much hoping" that they will be promptly released. It is hoped they they will be exchanged. Red Cross was allowed (and Nuland approved).
 * An interrogation by Ukrainian side of one of them, Alexandrov appeared on youtube, of a different flavor (stated that his group task was observation/reconnaissance; moving around on a truck-no armored vehicles; believes that he is under a contract).
 * Plotniskii: they were tortured. "Erofeev was wounded in his right shoulder; and after he was shown on TV, another shoulder was shot". Compare photos, 1/3 down  here: on censor. net photo, right shoulder wound; hospital photo, left arm bandage appears


 * Alexander Alexandrov wife: says the man in the news is her husband; he quit the Russian Army in December. She thought he got another job and is getting some training. Says that based on the video he is currently in bad shape, no blinking, no jaw movement, very low voice. (vesti-report and video), (rusvesna-text)
 * "OSCE SMM visited the two individuals currently held at the military hospital in Kyiv, who received medical treatment. The SMM spoke to the two individuals without the presence of Ukrainian authorities. The SMM assessed their general condition and gathered their accounts about their capture. One of them said he had received military education in the Russian Federation. Both individuals claimed that they were members of a unit of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. They claimed that they were on a reconnaissance mission. They were armed but had no orders to attack. Both of them said that they came under fire, got injured and were captured on 16 May 2015 at the contact line near Shchastya. One of them said he had received orders from his military unit to go to Ukraine; he was to “rotate” after three months. Both of them said they had been to Ukraine “on missions” before. One of them stressed repeatedly that there were no Russian troops involved in fighting in Ukraine. Both said they were provided with a Ukrainian lawyer who visited them today". TASS report on this: were in the past RAF servicemen.
 * Further interviews with soldiers, Novaia Gazeta. Looks like they were on a monitoring mission, -no actual fighting, but not part of official monitoring. Erofeev stresses that Russian army is not fighting in Ukraine.

18.05 Goncharenko, nowadays MP from the faction "Block Poroshenko," introduced draft Rada law on exemption from criminal responsibility of citizens - participants in the events of May 2, 2014 in Odessa. Text of the law was not published. (Here are some Alex Goncharenko photos from 2may.org).

17.05 Police separated pro-Kulikovo and Euromaidan supporters near Kulikovo field in Odessa. It is said that Pro-Kulikovo tried to restore a destroyed memorial to those who died at Kulikovo a year ago. A letter protesting memorial destruction, which happened on 11-12 May 2015 night, is seen on one of Dumskaya photos. Neither side said to gain entry as police and national guard were running exercises there. After verbal exchanges, crowds eventually dispersed (video),(rusvesna report), (Dumskaya report).

16.05 Second conference of 'People's Rada of Bessarabia' took place in Odessa (rusvesna) (112.ua). Among the foreign guests of the event: a political scientist, chairman of the movement "For Peace" Gojko Raichevich (Montenegro), a special representative of the party "Change" on National Minorities Bozena Gavorska, A. (Poland), journalist Ian Rishetsky (Czech Republic). During the conference, the leader of "People's Rada of Bessarabia" Vera Shevchenko presented a draft law on national (from 'nationality', =ethnicity) and cultural autonomy of Bessarabia. "The draft law declares Bessarabia as a single unique multi-ethnic and multicultural region. According to Shevchenko, this document is in compliance  with the constitution of Ukraine, and will be sent to the Rada of Ukraine and the President office.  Vera Shevchenko disappeared after the conference, and it is feared that SBU is to blame; she is followed for about 2 weeks, accused of separatism.
 * Here is a video with Vera making an appeal to release/not harm Dmitrii Zatuliveter-see below.

The first leader of People's Rada, Dmitrii Zatuliveter (video with him here), disappeared earlier and still is out of contact with his followers; he was leading the first meeting, 6 April 2015. Another organizer, Dmitrii Shsisman, disappeared the day before the conference. Bessarabia is bounded from the East by Dniester river--that would be about 40 km west from Odessa; it includes some territory in Ukraine and Moldova (and bordering Romania).

14 May. Ukrainian military do not allow vehicles to cross LPR or DPR border, only travel on foot or bicycle remains possible. Bus service between Donetsk and Mariupol not running. Deinego this is not even an economic blockade, it became physical blockade.

13 May. Gorlovka shelled, presumably 120 mm mortar or 152 mm howitzer,  school and a house was hit  (report, photos)

DPR, LPR sent to Kiev draft constitutional amendments on special status of Donbas 12 May. "Secretary of State John Kerry will travel on May 11 to Sochi, Russia, where he will meet with President Putin, Foreign Minister Lavrov, and other Russian officials on May 12 to discuss a full range of bilateral and regional issues, including Iran, Syria, and Ukraine. This trip is part of our ongoing effort to maintain direct lines of communication with senior Russian officials and to ensure U.S. views are clearly conveyed"- Press Statement
 * Lavrov-Kerry press conference clip by NTV (Russian). Lavrov: stresses joint position that Minsk agreements must be fulfilled in full (some passing comments that sanctions will be than lifted). Kerry: Poroshenko words on retaking airport are counterproductive, may undermine Minsk.

9 May. Celebrations in Donetsk, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, ... .

2 May. TASS photos-Odessa 2.5.14

2-3 May. UAF shelled Donetsk, and attacked Shirokino at the same time with 1.5 thousands infantry, using D30 howitzers, 152 mm mortars. Three streets sustained serious damage in the attack. Despite large numerical superiority, the attack failed. (rusvesna)

April 2015
29.4 "Kievan peoples republic" activists are said to be arrested by SBU (announced on SBU site); distributed pro-separatist materials over internet. 'Surrealism': -rusvesna 28.4 Big forest fire near Chernobyl. Some illegal settlers from exclusion zone were evacuated. Officially 400 hectares. Greenpeace (Russian branch) estimate is 10,000 hectares. Wind goes North, may turn West; may affect Belorussia map 27.4 Russia appoints Azamat Kul'muhametov as a new contact group special representative for Ukraine. In 2011-2014 he was leading Russian diplomatic mission in Syria. 25.4 Basurin-DPR: Humanitarian aid convoy of the "Novorossia" foundation was shot up at a checkpoint by Ukraine. It is unclear how it ended up there, investigation is launched.

Zakharchenko interview to Spiegel: not all heavy weapons were withdrawn, some returned back to answer continued shelling by Ukraine.

21.4 Peskov answers John Tefft on US joining negotiation process, - stresses the need to pressure Kiev to follow Minsk agreements.

OSCE reports renewed fighting in Donetsk Airport and Shirokino TASS.

It is reported in press that up to 70 soldiers from a private US military company Academi are moved to Volnovakha -TASS-English, Russian.

19.4 Zakharchenko interview. Says none of the items of Minsk agreement are fulfilled by Ukraine. He would prefer political methods to save lives, but dialogue with Kiev is not there. Discusses economic recovery. 17.4 US Army Brigade arrives in Ukraine for Fearless Guardian -Ambassador
 * "Putin's nightmare", Radio Liberty

On 20 April, American instructors were expected to start training Ukrainian Army (British went their earlier ).
 * George Fridman, -Stratfor: (the goal of the American policy for the last 100 years is to prevent the union on Russia and Germany ... Europe is a (small) continent (EU is roast) ...Russia will disintegrate by 2020... when Russians are hungrier they fight better... )

16.4 Journalis Oles'Buzina killed in Kiev; there were eyewitnesses. Gave an interview 2 days prior to this. Supported good relations with Russia. Oleg Kalashnikov, pro-Russia party of regions deputy, killed on 15. 4; his brother died in a car crash a day earlier. Olga Moroz, a journal editor, from Khmelnitskii region of Ukraine, killed
 * "Once you realize that Ukrainian - it's just a Russian, --- there is some holy grace descending on youI will not be afraid be afraid of the word, . You calm down and bear your cross. That's all ... "- Oles Buzina.
 * Reactions: in Kiev;
 * in Moscow;
 * Sharii comment (blames Ukraine, describes congratulatory comments seen on pro government site);
 * elsewhere: TASS (English) Russian Embassy in London, Bryan MacDonald from Ireland.

14.4 Normandy format FM meeting ended after 4 hours; importance of full compliance with Minsk agreement was stressed including the political part. It is reported that peacekeepers requested by Ukraine were discussed as well, but not agreed (peacekeepers were not agreed in Minsk). Opolchenie is opposed to peacekeepers, in part because of the border control issues (also no common position on who those peacekeepers may be).

Rusvesna Many violations of ceasfire by UAF. Donetsk suburbs, Peski, Spartak, Oktiabrskii settlement are the flashpoints. Ukrainian shelled Peski and the airport, opolchenie returned fire. Mortars and 'light armaments' were used. Occasional reports of  artillery, self-propelled artillery,   tanks used, so far not in a sustained manner, more like reconnaissance by fire. (Earlier reports suggest there was a clash between regular UAF and territorial battalions at Peski, with UAF intending to have Peski surrounded; it seems that in the end this did not happen). Mariupol suburbs were shelled, cannonade and fire between Vinogradnoe and further towards Shirokino, Primorskoe, Pionerskoe. Some opolchenie casualties reported.

7.4 Opolchenie: Ukraine keeps 1378 pro-DPR prisoners, cannot release them as their no amnesty law. Exchange being negotiated.

6.4 Mozgovoi talks with residents about resuming farming, producing food locally and not counting on humanitarian aid-- starting ASAP and not counting for much external help. Also about repairing buildings, themselves.

6.4 It is reported, quoting Putin meeting with Russian industrialists and entrepreneurs, that Poroshenko suggested to Putin to annex Donbas ('take into Russia'); with a response that Poroshenko must have gone mad suggesting this; if Ukraine does not need Donbas, should make it independent; pay the bills in the meantime. Forbes.ru, 6.4.15

4.4. Donetsk Airport reported to be under Ukrainian fire (again)--russvesna. Ukraine shells DPR positions 27 times in one day -russvesna, 4.4.15

Ex-Aidar commander and Rada deputy Melnichuk: families of volunteers, and of those drafted away from their place of residence, will not be compensated.

Workers at an airplane factory in Khrakov started a protest, unpaid for 8 months.

Tsarev: Kolomoiskii battalions fighters do not receive their salary for the second month, may end up making their inquiries on a tank top. Also states that after meeting Geoffrey Pyatt, Kolomoiskii was required to cease control of the battalions to the state. In the meantime, Zakharchenko is playing nicer and offered Kolomoiskii to create DRK, "Dnepropetrovsk Republic of Kolomoiskii", as a de-factor master anyway.
 * (reported to be in USA -russvesna)

2.4. 15 Azov battalion flies the US flag in Shirokino

2.4.15 Further to the war of oligarchs and Kolomoiskii resignation, many other leaders in Dnepropetrovsk were replaced- Filatov laments

1.4. 15 A warning, and than a big explosion in Kharkov reported

March 2015
31.3 Shirokino controlled by opolchenie--quoting OSCE. No significant change --Cassad

28.03 Opoolchenie in Shirokino report frequent shelling which stops only when OSCE mission arrives. They also report that a [new modern tank is apparently used by Ukraine. It has powerful gun, and also very quickly targets them, without spotters or drones seen. Opolchenie claims it is foreign tank, believed to be South Korean 'black panther', advanced/prototype design. They say they suspect it's 'black panther' based on brief news reports by Ukraine   and intercepts of Ukrainian communications, as well as unusual battle performance.

20.03 Reports say that NATO planes continue to deliver weapons/'non-lethal aid' to Ukraine. It is said that in Dnepopetrovsk, 4 planes land daily. Currently said to deliver armed Humvees. The article argues they may be used to launch a quick surprise attack on an area freed from heavy weapons.

19.03 Unknowns shot at Givi car in Makeevka; he jumped out of the car and reurned fire. Not injured, the car was hit 12 times. Rusvesna report, video=English subs

18.03 Warning on UAF provocation in Stanitsa Luganskaia. Dressed up in DPR uniform, fired on a bridge and set a building on fire. Filming crews in tow with them  Cassad

17.03 Zakharchenko and Plotnsiskii are saying that Kiev torpedoed Minsk 2 agreement by modifying special status law and requiring new elections first. Those measures were not discussed or agreed with them. They say that Kiev aims at destroying them by economic blockade and violence, and that until they got special status they cannot negotiate with Kiev  (Vesti),  Zakharchenko goes further to say that they may have to liberate the rest of the region which supported self-rule in a  referendum, and negotiate with Kiev as equal partners thereafter (Cassad).

Rada consideres parts of Donbas 'temporary occupied (motion 2396, with 280 deputies in favor). This is in addition to special status law, heavily criticized by DPR/LPR and Russia as not following Minsk 2 agreements.

16.03 About 10 Ukrainian tanks, some with "DPR" insignia painted, attacked DPR positions at Shirokino

Donetsk briefly shelled from heavy artillery. Also Spartak, a place near Donetsk, was attacked by UAF

Riots against UAF in Ukrainian-held Konstantinovka, after a woman was hit by UAF armored vehicle. More photos, videos, also here on Cassad. UAF barracks surrounded, crowd attempted to set it on fire. Ukraine brings troops, national guard and infantry.

12.03 OSCE: mass withdrawal of military equipment from contact line in east Ukraine. Ukraine starts military exercises near the separation line. DPR announced military exercises as well, said to be outside of 50 km zone from the separation line.

11.03 Poroshenko thanked for additional "non-lethal" U.S. security assistance to Ukraine, particularly drones, radios, counter-mortar radars, night vision devices and other equipment worth $75 million, as well as 230 Humvees.

New US sanctions announced -(Dugin, Gubareva sanctioned in particular).

Video/text: UAF shells Shirokino, --soldiers comments show that they enjoy that a civilian house is destroyed, anticipate they can do some marauding.

Ukraine artillery shelled LPR town Zolotoe and coalmine "Pervomaiskoe"

09.03 Fighting reported in Shirokino near Mariupol -rusvesna quoting Semchenko, ex-combat of Donbas.

08.03 Ukraine reported that withdrawal of heavy weapons, including Uragan, was completed. Later Basurin raised doubts saying that heavy weapons are moved by just 20-30 km and this can be undone in a couple of hours time.

Mozgovoi wounded (shrapnel wounds to head) by MON 50 mine or IED blast hitting his car, near checkpoint at Mikhailovka. His condition is described as "satisfactory". He is quoted saying that he "will live". Provocation by National guard, possibly dressed in opolchenie or Russian army uniforms was suggested/blames/hinted. He already gave an interview himself addressing the matter, looking quite OK. Talked mostly about building Novorossia. Said to "forgive" (which sounded a bit like ignore) the perpetrators.

03.03 Opolchenie reported that Donetsk airport area was shelled by Ukraine. OSCE report give details of shelling by Grad and artillery or mortars; also notes that there was small arms fire fire coming from the North West

Poroshenko decree creates constitutional committee. (In Russia, it is hoped that constitutional reform will give some autonomy to Donbas)

LPR completed withdrawal of heavy weapons

DPR completed as well.

It is hoped that Ukraine will complete withdrawal of heavy weapons by March 7.

02.03 Kiev recalled its Ambassador from Moscow for consultations

According to rusvesna, there is an agreement for the whole Ukrainian government to resign (hryvna collapse is blamed)

February,2015
27.02 Zakharchenko question-answers session -English captions. Economic matters-economic blockade by Ukraine, Minsk agreement-political part will take Ukraine a long time to implement, etc. Once again confirms that water to Mariupol is supplied by Ukraine. 26.02 Zakharchenko gives an "ultimatum": if by 18:00 on 27.02 Ukraine will not start moving heavy weapons, DPR will move its heavy weapons back. Currently according to Zakharchenko DPR moved 90% of heavy equipment.
 * Neither side is willing to provide information on where heavy equipment is moved to. OSCE, 24.02:The Ukrainian CoS said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would not initiate weapons withdrawal until a comprehensive 48-hour ceasefire had been observed along the line of contact, as foreseen by the Minsk agreements of September 2014. In the meantime, none of the signatories to the package of measures had provided the baseline information requested by the Chief Monitor that would enable the SMM to monitor and verify that all weapons had been withdrawn.

Near settlement Vodianoe, controlled by UAF, DPR fighters discovered 4 MLRS "Smerch" and one "Uragan". According to Basurin, after the discovery UAF announced that the terriotry is not controlled by them, and MLRS belongs to a "third side".

Columns of UAF heavy equipment spotted in Odessa, including S 300 anti-aircraft batteries

As if before Minsk 2, firefights in Peski reported, and Ukraine shells airport and Donetsk using artillery- (jccc report-rusvesna)

Gorlovka shelled overnight by "illegal pro-Kiev Ukrainian armed formations" from mortars and artillery; 2-3 salvos said to occur daily.

25.02 Poroshenko shopping for weapons in UAE (photos), said to be tens of millions $ in weapons purchase contracts

Evgenii Deidei, commander of Kiev 1 "punishers" battalion of MoI, Ukraine  disappeared near Marinka with 2 other fighters, their burned car was found near Marinka, nobody inside.

24.02 UK will start a "joint infantry program" with Ukraine, to improve durability of its forces. Guardian-David Cameron’s evidence to the Commons liaison committee: "We are not at the stage of supplying lethal equipment. We have announced a whole series of non-lethal equipment, night-vision goggles, body armour, which we have already said that we will give to Ukraine. Over the course of the next month we are going to be deploying British service personnel to provide advice and a range of training, from tactical intelligence to logistics to medical care, which is something else they have asked for. We will also be developing an infantry training programme with Ukraine to improve the durability of their forces. This will involve a number of British service personnel, they will be away from the area of conflict but I think this is the sort of thing we should be helping with". "Up to 75 personnel will begin to deploy to Ukraine from next month as part of the training mission, the Ministry of Defence said. There will be four separate areas covered by the deployment - medical, intelligence, logistics and infantry training. Personnel involved in the training elements could spend one or two months in Ukraine, with a command and control deployment lasting up to six months".
 * Assisting with peace is not part of that mission.
 * Earlier, Cameron said "Russia must be in no doubt that any attempts by the separatists to expand their territory — whether towards Mariupol or elsewhere — will be met with further significant EU and U.S. sanctions," 23.02.15

Asked during U.S. congressional testimony if Russia was lying when it says it has no troops or equipment in Ukraine, Kerry replied: "Yes." Reuters.
 * Details/evidence of "lying" was not presented. -That was budget hearing

23.02 Zakharchenko back from hospital, gives a press conference. Considers peacekeeper and weapons requests by Poroshenko a de-facto admission of defeat. Says that DPR started pulling out heavy weapons, to show goodwill; while Ukraine moving weapons towards Donbas, from Kharkov, Zaporozhie, Dnepropetrovsk. Fears that Ukraine, after arranging some provocation, will abandon Minsk agreements, and restart hostilities; that may occur by the end of March-early April, when back roads will become passable. Says that US already sends weapons, captured items include small firearms (he has a trophy M4 himself), counter-battery radars; radiointerference equipment, ammunition (including 155 mm shells).

Poroshenko makes a tour for visiting dignitaries to show some equipment and documents; twitters that this is proof of Russian aggression in Ukraine. (One of ID tags said to be not use for 11 years; passports not too hard to acquire and too few to have much meaning, even if this is genuine. Equipment included a widely used, in particular by both sides in the conflict, T 72 tank and a Grad launcher; Shmel flamethrower (not really new and in use by a number of post Soviet Union states including Ukraine); a drone -which would be nonlethal, and a firearm,  Dragunov sniper rifle, good one but introduced in 1963 and quite widespread. This shows that Poroshenko continues to misrepresent  a civil war as Russian aggression; and continues to ignore or label as terrorists the other side in that war, appealing to foreigners instead and asking them for weapons. This is very dangerous and irresponsible path where foreign involvement claims may end up becoming self-fulfilling. He could stop that war by directly negotiating with the other side, which he persistently refused to do throughout the conflict. 22.02 Kharkov . An explosion occurred during a pro-Ukrainian march in Khrakov, 2 or 3 peeople said to be killed (BBC). Right after that, 4 people were arrested by SBU, and an ATO regime was established in Khrakov, according (rusvesna, quoting Turchinov). Lubkivskyi announced suspects arrest, apparently at 4:45 AM Pacific Time, 14:45 in Kharkov. Details that 4 were arrested and a "grenade- launcher" found appeared on korrespondent.net by 15:58, before dark. An after -dark video showing "arrest" of several suspects, and a "discovery" of "Shmel flamethrower (or RPG 22)
 * Philip Ekoziants reads a message from Khrarkov partisans: explosion was not done by them, they will not target civilians no matter what political beliefs they have. Partisans blame Avakov for organizing this, in order to introduce ATO in Khrarkov. "Dear residents of Kharkov ! A year ago, the power in Ukraine was taken by moral deviants, sadists and killers. In order to achieve their goals, they sacrifice common folks, the Ukrainian people. We are just a small change in their horrible game. But we will win!"-that was an urgent message from Kharkov partisans --Philip Ekoziants.

"Armed Research" Kharkiv Bombing Raises Questions on Ukrainian SBU's Credibility offers a detailed analysis of the different claims, video evidence, and suspicious arrest video of supposed Russian agents, who say their next task was to be an RPG attack on a shopping center in Odessa, with a launcher provided by the Russians, safely confiscated now.


 * OSCE spot report. They were watching the march, they watch as many marches as they can, on Kiev side anyway. 100 meters away, they heard it, and got ehre in a few minutes. 2 dead right away, one died later, including one policeman. The blast was near the head of the line, injured several Kharkiv policemen, didn't damage any buildings. They hear the bomb was inside a plastic bag and is being called terrorism. There were no craters or directions to study, and no explicit blame.

Shelling of Donetsk still continues, despite the ceasefire. Many incidents reported, heavy MLRS (Uragan) said to be used. It is said that Ukraine still tries to take back the Airport (despite that going against Minsk agreements, and having no rational reason behind)

Gorlovka was also shelled Report blames territorial battalions (as well as the National guard), which are not under control of MoD. OSCE reports Feb. 3 on shelling against Lugansk, January 27, that hit a 1.5 sq km area of the city with munitions including cluster bombs. Only one man was killed, another person died of heart attack, two serious injuries. Fire came from the north-northwest. No explicit blame.

Maidan commemorations and interviews
 * March of Dignity in Kiev. Foreign dignitaries including Baltic republics, Georgia, Moldova, Slovakia, Poland, Germany, EU (BH Levy also there). Talk about Russian aggression heard from presenter--blamed for Maidan as well as Donbas warfare.


 * On the previous day, Poroshenko gave a commemorating speech ; was separated from people (going against Maidan spirit despite claiming otherwise), well guarded, and booed on his way (video)  „Ганьба!" (ukr)  = (shame!). In the meantime, Nalivaichenko blamed Surkov for being in charge of Maidan snipers (Surkov expertise is political  technologies; he also has some experience as writer, director, and actor; soft power advisor to Putin; in attendance of Minsk 2 meeting. No experience with special operations though).


 * Former Ukrainian prime minister Nikolai Azarov gave an interview to Russian NTV, claimed that change of power a year ago was foreign -scripted. Claims that when signing of association agreement with the EU was delayed, reasons were explained, but there was a lot of Western pressure on his government, including perceived veiled threats (was told that in that case it will be signed by a different government).   In an earlier interview, November 2013,  he did try to  explain why EU association agreement was problematic (insufficient funding commitment by IMF coupled with severe austerity measures pressed; and undermining trade with Russia, the largest partner).  After the coup a year ago, Azarov escaped to Austria. He was subsequently included in the Western sanctions; moved to Russia prior to that. Currently, he is on Ukraine and Interpol  wanted list (as well as Yanukovich). His arrest in  absentia was ordered by a court in Kiev on  20.01.2015.

21.02 Prisoner exchange took place, 35 prisoners on DPR side for 37 on Kiev side. One Ukrainian prisoner refused to be exchanged and stayed on DPR territory. More exchanges planned.
 * Final prisoners swap count for today: Novorossia released 139 prisoners (over hundred from Debaltsvo; 5 kiborgs). Kiev released 52 "separatists" ; it is said that as previously, only about 50% of released are soldiers, others are randomly held civilians; many of those released were in poor condition and there were signs of ill treatment and torture.

20.02 Control on heavy weapons withdrawal was agreed. UAF forces Kiev forces and Donbas leadership seek to withdraw weapons from the contact line as soon as possible, Russia's envoy at Joint Center for Ceasefire Control and Coordination says. Joint groups consist of representatives of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, Russia’s Armed Forces and also the representatives of Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics in the joint center for ceasefire control and coordination (jccc)

Situation in Debaltsevo stabilized, almost no firefights; it is said that UAF withdraw.

19.02 Donetsk shelled overnight from 3 directions by Ukraine, using MLRS, mortars, artillery, firearms. There are wounded civilians. Not something which should be happening during ceasefire. Opolchenie considers revenge for Debaltsevo as the motive. (rusvesna).

Gazprom started direct deliveries of gas to Novorossia. The day before, Ukrainian Naftogaz stopped their gas deliveries to Novorossia, blaming damage to pipeline infrastructure as a result of warfare. According to LPR/DPR, only gas vents on Ukrainian side are irreversibly damaged (irony indicating sabotage suspicion). Gazprom presented direct deliveries as fulfilling the contract with Ukraine. That likely means that they may reduce gas deliveries to the rest of Ukraine, in effect billing Ukraine for the direct deliveries.
 * Naftogas refused to pay for deliveries made by Gazprom to Donbas. Putin says Gazprom breached no contract terms with gas supplies to east Ukraine (TASS-English), calls stoppiang gas deliveries "smelling of genocide" ;  calls for Ukraine to decide and  bear  responsibility or openly give up on Donbas.

Zakharchenko: Debaltsevo mp-up is finished. Alexander Afendikov is appointed new mayor of Debaltsevo; reconstruction work will start at once. 18.02 Withdrawal of heavy weapons began. Photos show opolchenie moving MLRS, artillery from Elenovka, Telmanovo.

Up to 40 armored vehicles managed to break throw (exact number disputed), while many vehicles were destroyed and soldiers killed in a nighttime escape attempt. According to Poroshenko, "80 % " of soldiers managed to leave the cauldron; this is probably a gross exaggeration. Dragon-first count gives 6 tanks, 28 BMP/BTR/MTLB, 5 BRDM, one Grad, 5 self-propelled artillery escaping; with an estimate that true number may be up to 25% higher. This would be an infantry battalion and few extra companies; while details are a bit sketchy, considerably more was supposed to be there initially.

Unusually, a NYT report about escape attempts, not fully negative on opolchenie.

153 soldiers Ukrainian, including 12 officers, surrendered (rusvesna)

There was a big tank battle in the night of 18.02 near Debaltsevo, lots of tanks destroyed (photo, video)

17.02 Most of Debaltsevo controlled by opolchenie. UAF said to receive orders to exit in small groups on their own, destroy weapons. Many taken prisoners (report). But there are also reports on Ukrainian rearguards opening fire on their own, to prevent surrendering.

Putin in RT interview, in answering question on possible US weapons deliveries to Ukraine: foreign weapons are already being delivered to Ukraine. However that will not change the situation, since Ukrainian military does not want to participate in fratricidal war, while opolchenie is highly motivated to  protect their families.

Zakharchenko was at Debaltsevo, got lightly wounded (ankle), now at the hospital and doing alright.

Heavy weapons pull-out have not started yet, due to continued fighting in isolated areas

16.02 DPR raised issues with heavy weapons withdrawal from the airport, which is too close to the city of Donetsk; withdrawing heavy weapons from the airport will open up the city. Also, cannot withdraw where it can open the cauldron. Need ceasefire to hold and simultaneous moves by Ukraine and DPR for heavy weapons withdrawal to happen

Canada has plans to send military instructors -rusvesna quoting Global News

15.02 In Debaltsevo, NAF seized 4 Ukrainian Grad launchers and large quantities of Grad munitions Basurin at 2:01. All were moved away from the city.

Novorossia evening report notes that Ukraine is using ceasefire to reinforce troops trying to break cauldron at Debaltsevo, and positions nearby Donetsk and Luhansk. 16 violations of the ceasefire listed, not just at Debaltsevo. Some violations include heavy weapons use -artillery, tank fire.

The Normandy Four discussed implementation of the ceasefire on the phone; a lot was about Debaltsevo. Also OSCE role was discussed -TASS

OSCE briefing: in the past 12 hours, ceasefire mostly observed -TASS. According to Basurin, ceasefire mostly observed with some violations by UAF at Debaltsevo.

14.02 Both sides gave ceasefire orders. It is said to be getting mostly quiet in Donetsk and Debaltsevo at night past ceasefire deadline (rusvesna). However later reports tell about fire by UAF in Gorlovka, Enakievo, and Donetsk Airport (rusvesna). Report on Cassad say that fire started in Debaltsevo. Opolchenie responds to fire.

Massive random shelling of Donetsk reported. Fighting rages in Mar'inka nearby. Donetsk shelling by Ukraine goes past the midnight deadline; said to calm down some 7 minutes after that (rusvesna)

13.02 In the morning, UAF ammunition storage was destroyed in Debaltsevo, with dramatic photos emerging. In the evening, LPR entered Debaltsevo- Life News video report. Intensive fighting continues, casualties on both sides. An opolchenie member is telling that they will not stop until Debaltsevo is mopped up; that may go past ceasefire deadline. Four attempts by UAF to break the siege at Logvinovo, all of them failed. Heavy shelling of opolchenie positions near Mariupol from heavy weapons. For the day, UAF lost 4 tanks, 15 BMP/BTR, up to 100 killed in total Basurin, DPR. Donetsk, Gorlovka were shelled, 2 civilians killed and 8 wounded in Donetsk. In Gorlovka, 2 civilians killed, 1 wounded.

12.02 Ukraine throws reserves, said to be up to 3 battalion groups and 40 tanks, to retake Logvinovo. Opolchenie controls hills overlooking the area and so can inflict a lot of damage with artillery. From military perspective, Ukrainian attack is essentially suicidal, and taken for (wrongly interpreted) political and reputation reasons. First attack was repelled at a closed range near the village; the last two tanks were destroyed about a 100 meters from opolchenie positions (if a tank reaches trenches, its machine gun can kill those in the trench, otherwise chances are not very high). Second attack was repelled by NAF tanks counter-attacking; advancing UAF infantry had high losses. After this, fighting became an artillery duel (opolchenie member Shurygin battle account). According to evening report by Basurin (DPR), UAF lost 127 killed,   200 wounded,   7 tanks, 11 BMP and BTR. Further 42 UAF were killed in  night battles. Elsewhere, intense shelling of Lugansk from Grads, at least 4 civilians killed and 7 wounded. 3 children killed in Gorlovka. There is a word that plans of a "black night" for Novorossia was discussed on Ukrainian sites (severe shelling of Novorossia cities from all weapons), before the ceasefire deadline. That discussion was than deleted by Ukrainian sites administrators (noted at the end of Shurygin report)

Heavy clashes in Logvinovo (closing of Debaltsevo cauldron). Ukraine uses all weapons, including "Pions" and heavy MLRS; says Logvinovo it is retaken; NAF says they still control it. Video appears to show NAF is still in control in Logvinovo.

Putin and Poroshenko could not agree on whether there is cauldron at Debaltsevo, according to Putin press conference statement. So now many attacks may happen to figure this out. (Putin called for calm to avoid unnecessary bloodshed. But reports from Debaltsevo appear to show different actual development).

Novorossia intelligence warned about a possible provocation against civilians in Stanitsa Luganskaia, to disrupt Minsk agreements.

11-12.02 at night, Luhansk was shelled with Smerch MLRS. Video shows un-exploded missile removal; OSCE on the scene

10.02 US President calls Russian President (WH readout) (Kremlin readout) and President of Ukraine (WH readout) (President of Ukraine readout)

Russia's OSCE representative Andrei Kelin confirmed that a demilitarized zone in Eastern Ukraine is discussed (extending Minsk, where only heavy weapons were supposed to be moved). It will be either totally free from weapons and controlled by police, or personal firearms allowed. No definite decision yet.

09.02 Village of Logvinovo taken by NAF. This fully closes the cauldron at Debaltsevo. NAF entered parts of Debaltsevo, took the railway sorting station.

08.02 Turchinov reviewed new military equipment given to UAF. That included BTR 80 and Ukrainian BTR Spartan armed with rockets "Stugna" and 12 mm machine gun. Turchinov said that new equipment is needed to stop aggressor ("Russian terrorist group") and liberate ceased territory.

Respected Cossack commander "Plastun", said to be now in charge of "Batman" RSG gave an audio interview. UAF at Debaltsevo is in cauldron; there are two escape points still not closed but they are controlled by NAF artillery. A ceasefire was agreed with UAF to evacuate civilians, however UAF broke it and shelled NAF positions with Uragan; NAF had casualties. In response to question that ceasefire may be asked to evacuate foreign equipment, Plastun stated that UAF use "a  lot" of foreign made weapons, and "yesterday, we were even shelled from Apache helicopter, operated by highly professional crew". (Apache is US made, and operated by some Asian and Middle Eastern countries in addition to NATO). There is no visual confirmation, just the verbal claim of Plastun.

Redkodub taken by NAF. A big column of UAF military equipment is moving from Dnepopetrovsk to Donetsk (Basurin)

07.02 "President Petro Poroshenko has held trilateral negotiations with Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel and U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden.The parties have discussed the development of negotiations on the peaceful resolution in the Ukrainian Donbas in the context of joint proposals on the fulfillment of the Minsk agreements elaborated in the course of the meeting between President Poroshenko, Chancellor Merkel and President Hollande in Kyiv. President Poroshenko, Chancellor Merkel and Vice President Biden have coordinated future steps and emphasized the need for immediate ceasefire and continuation of dialogue on the implementation of all items of the Minsk agreements. The interlocutors have underlined the necessity of compliance with joint transatlantic position on the situation in Ukraine"- (Poroshenko web site).

06.02 Debaltsevo evacuation "disrupted" by Ukraine, civilians not notified, only 40 showed up to board buses to Donetsk. Some shelling still occurred despite agreed ceasefire. 3 civilians were wounded in Chernukhino. Ukrainian news give brighter picture; but people interviewed appear confused where they are going, and not aware there have a choice. (Donetsk is often shelled, this may be a practical consideration; but none of that is discussed in interviews). Another report on evacuations from Debaltsevo. Ukraine is said to evacuate 296 people from Debaltsevo in one day,  05-06.02 (including 30 wounded, 2 children)

Humanitarian corridor in Debaltsevo agreed starting at 9 am. In Chernukhino, it is reported that UAF is not allowing civilians to leave (mines roads, said to pour gasoline into water wells to make them not usable). Lots of shelling on the previous day throughout Novorossia; nother UAF plane is reportedly shot down. Heavy shelling of Starobeshevo at night, UAF attack in that direction feared.

05.02 Opolchenie tanks defeated Ukrainian fortified position at Debaltsevo. Earlier, Ukraine, OSCE, UN proposed a local ceasefire to evacuate civilians at Debaltsevo (dire civilian situation at Chernukino and Gorlovka not mentioned); while opolchenie proposed a different ceasefire plan. An agreement was not reached. Opolchenie warned about a planned provocation against civilians at Debaltsevo, which they learned from interrogation of UAF prisoner.

Hollande, Merkel will travel to Kiev  with a new peace solution proposal; on 06.02 they will visit Putin. Hollande stated that NATO membership for Ukraine is not desirable, and sale of weapons not planned (TASS)

Kerry visited Kiev today (report, video). Russia is blamed; so far, weapon sales not announced.

03.02.15 Opolchenie entered Debaltsevo from the West. Fighting continues in Chernukhino for the 4 day; many civilian casualties feared; the number can increase if there is no rescue operation as many are injured. Civilian convoy trying to escape Chernukhino was fired on from BTR and small arms fire; 5 civilians killed, the rest had to turn back.

Basurin shows NATO -type shells used by Ukraine in Gorlovka, 155 mm from M109 A1 (US made;-- Switzerland and Middle Eastern states are known as current operators), and a 75 mm MLRS missile fragment. Both shells are not in use by Ukraine or Russia. video

Gorlovka was shelled from heavy MLRS (Uragan). New 2 meter deep craters appeared. Donetsk shelled with Smerch.

02.02.2015.opolchenie map (also File:MapDragon010215.jpg ) (1): Ukrainian Tochka U downed.

01.02.15 opolchenie map. (1): Nikishino  taken by NAF ;  (9): Uglegorsk fully controlled by NAF.

Mobilization planned by Novorossia in some 10 days, up to 100 thousand may be called for duty (Cassad)
 * Strelkov applied to be mobilized based on wife's Donetsk residency, listing military skills.

Opolchenie repeats that they are ready for a ceasefire, based on the actual front line. Ukraine insists on the line from 19 September memorandum. (That line was never implemented-Airport has to go to Novorossia, for example, and shelling of cities did not stop.)

Odessa news
27.8 DPR all-for all prisoners exchange list includes 63 anti-maidan activists arrested or charged after May 2 events.

19.7 Saakasvilli clashed with Filatov, Kolomoiskii ally. Clash has to do with elections in Chernigov where another Kolomoiskii ally Korban is running. Saakashvilli is said to come to support opposing candidate Berezenko, his main opponent, but gave a different reason for the visit; that ended in verbal and almost physical clash with Filatov (video), and a court case threatened by Filatov.

17.7.2015 Maria Gaidar appointed vice-governor responsible for social policy. She is a daughter of late Yegor Gaidar (a reformer, acting prime minister of Russia in the second half of 1992). Indicated that her priority will be to show residents that regional authorities care about them. tAfter showing reluctance to persistent journalist questions on who Ukraine is fighting with, eventually provided] politically correct answer telling that Russia attacked Georgia and Ukraine (on her 4th attempt).

30.5.2015 Mikheil Saakashvili appointed governor of Odessa region. Poroshenko stated that knows Saakashvilli for a long time and trusts him. Control of Odessa port which may be used for military aid,  Transnistria border, and creating positive image abroad,  are seen as some of the reasons behind the appointment. Port control and other economic matters placed Saakashvilli on collision course with Kolomoiskii, whose ally was a previous Odessa governor.

Photos/Videos
Debaltsevo Damage to houses, big craters. It is said in the article that sometime UAF intentionally damaged houses by a direct fire.

Uglegorsk: NAF arranged a corridor for civilians (English sub.) Donetsk children Enakievo Gorlovka Nikishino Nikishino (center) Uglegorsk

Agreements

 * 22.7.15 Under-100 mm weapons withdrawal was agreed Poroshenko statement: ' I hope it will be the real beginning of the ceasefire'.
 * 12.2.15 Two documents were agreed: on measures on implementing Minsk protocol (English language PDF here).

Updates
15.3 Minsk 3 ? It is rumored that part of Ukrainian leadership is seeking a compromise and another Minsk meeting. Maybe an info release merely testing waters; but the essence of compromise is said to be a special mode to local government which covers the entire territory of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions (including those controlled by Ukraine), but these areas will be led by the people agreed as Kiev and Moscow, and the other members of the Minsk process (Germany and France). It is said that a similar proposal was made a year ago after a meeting involving Kuchma, Medvedchuk, and DPR, but Poroshenko refused to consider it and started the ATO instead. Ukrainian media claim that the plan is actually coming from "representatives of Moscow".
 * Kremlin 'melancholically denied' (Cassad) re-interpretations/free interpretations of Minsk TASS

12.6.15 Poroshenko expects to submit de-centralization bill to Rada by the end of parliamentary session in July
 * other constitutional changes proposed by the sides: see news entry for 9.6.15 above

10.6.15 Kuchma: Russia insists on including Novorosiia representatives into tripartite liaison group, Normandy format; but his is not acceptable to us; they are included as consultants.

17-19.03 Russia called for a UNSC closed door meeting to discuss Ukraine breaking Minsk 2 agreements. Later Lavrov criticized the US position, and indicated further diplomatic moves and planned meetings in in Normandy format 16.03 Special status law requires elections based on laws of Ukraine prior to such special status. LPR/DPR were not consulted about this (although that is required in Minsk 2 agreements). With leaders of LPR/DPR and Soviets recently elected already, another elections will be problematic. There were no local elections though, may be local elections can be arranged in a way acceptable to both sides.

14.03 Poroshenko introduced special status law for Rada consideration -TASS quoting Rada site.

13.03 Zakharchenko and Plotniskii write to Hollande and Merkel about Ukraine not fulfilling its obligations: not following schedule on heavy weapons withdrawal; (most importantly) Rada has not started discussing special status for Donetsk, Lugansk regions--that work is supposed to finish by 14 March; continued economic blockade.

27.02 UNSC meeting on Ukraine started with OSCE report, highlighting state of affairs and challenges OSCE faces. Overall partial calming of warfare in the past several days noted. Neither side was willing to provide details of heavy weapons they posses, or their exact destination after proposed withdrawal. Technology (e.g. satellite), experts, and procedures need to be upgraded for OSCE to fulfill its required mission (video of OSCE presentation in Russian translation is here, other languages not found at this time)
 * abc news report dailystar SBS
 * Churkin gives a brief account of the UNSC closed door meeting TASS-English

24.02 FM meeting in Normandy format ended in Paris; heavy weapons withdrawal, verification, Debaltsevo were discussed, nothing new signed. Germany has concerns with implementation.

19.02 Poroshenko has held a phone conversation in the Normandy format, told them "not to pretend that the events in Debaltseve meet the Minsk agreements". He has also urged to elaborate clear guarantees for the possible attempts of violating the given agreements in the future. (Debaltsevo situation was known in Minsk--indeed he should not be pretending).

18.02 Poroshenko plans to ask for UN peacekeepers

17.02 UN SC unanimously approved a resolution supporting Minsk agreements. (Yet, testy rhetoric noted by Churkin)

14.02 Russia introduced UN SC resolution approving Minsk agreements of February 12. So far, English speaking world, UK and USA, did not clearly expressed their positions, and it may give an indication. So far, it was along the lines that Russia has to deliver, and may be further sanctioned otherwise, while Ukraine has nothing to deliver, and will not be sanctioned for failures. Russian officials called for a change of such approach, taking a position that the conflict is internally Ukrainian and Russia is not a participant (example). While Russian media are making presentations indicating that it is the USA who is a participant, in Kiev overlord capacity (example).

12.02 Two documents were agreed: 10.02 Contact Group agrees (a plan of)  heavy troops withdrawal, ceasefire regime -TASS
 * on measures on implementing Minsk protocol (English language PDF here). Ceasefire starting on February 15; separation of heavy weapons (from actual line for Ukraine, and from September 19 line for Novorossia; this enlarges separation), starting in 2 days from ceasefire, finishing in 14 days. All for all prisoners exchange, to finish in 5 days from separation begins. Time limits are given for all major steps. Return of border control to Ukraine is agreed to occur after local elections and constitutional reform (taking interests of breakaway regions into account)
 * declaration of support of Ukrainian peace settlement. This includes support and control of implementation.
 * It may be the case that sides do not make binding obligations, but approve and support listed measures (language is a bit vague, if something is broken later, or sides do not agree whether later vague steps actually occurred, not clear exactly what will follow)

Plotniskii, Zakharchenko press statement (English subs)

Still no direct contact between official Kiev and Novorossia. -(Mentioned by Putin in his press statement as one of the reasons negotiations took so long, had to go back and forth with Trilateral Group).

08.02 After telephone conference today, it is said that Normandy four to meet in Minsk on 11.02 if some positions will be resolved prior to that. Details of positions not explained. (Lukashenko talked to both Putin and Poroshenko about this and is happy and keen for them to come to Minsk)

06.02 Hollande-Merkel-Putin talks are finished in Moscow, it is said that a Normandy format document is being prepared based on meetings in Kiev and Moscow. Phone conference call in Normandy format expected on Sunday. (--Putin spokesman Peskov, TASS).) Putin off to Sochi, meets Lukashenko and rests; Hollande and Merkel also departing Moscow.

Petro Poroshenko, Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande insist on the immediate and unconditional ceasefire in the Donbas

Plotniskii and Zakharchenko press conference -explains Republics position why it is not their fault that latest Minsk meeting did not succeed (English subs).

Victor Baloga, Governor of trans-Carpathian region of Ukraine, proposes a referendum on whether to continue war or separate from the rebel regions. Gennady Korban, assistant Governor, Dnepropetrovsk, proposes to choose between war and an agreement.

Maps


Dragon-First maps; Kot Ivanov.

Total
8.7.15 Zakharchenko, at a a joint LPR/DPR press conference: "In 2015,  1212 people were killed, including 25 children under the age of 18 years ". During the conflict in 2014, 3864 DPR peeople  died, including 522 women and 65 children. "That is more than 5000 of our people were killed just because they are residents of Donbass." (unclear is this civilian deaths or total deaths--probably total). More than 6,200 people, including women, children and the elderly were seriously injured and became disabled for life were. More than two thousand DPR inhabitants are missing.

14.8.15 From the start of hostilities, 5061 people were killed, among them 4295 men and 766 women, according to the Office of the Commissioner for Human Rights in DPR; and according to the Center for Emergency Medical Aid, 6100 were wounded Dan-news, 14.8.15. The figure is close to the one given by Zakharchenko in July (he had a higher number of 5076, so a small discrepancy here)

Military Casualties
19.02 Zakharchenko: Ukrainian losses in Debaltsevo cauldron may be up to 3 -3.5 thousand killed. There are plans to release or exchange those taken prisoners.

16.02 UAF: estimated 60 killed; NAF 2 killed, 21 wounded (source).

14.02 for the day and up to the ceasefire started: UAF lost 111 killed, NAF lost 8 killed, 28 wounded -Basurn

13.02 up to 100 UAF killed  Basurin, DPR

12.02 Day + night, UAF lost 169 killed (links in the news section)

08.02 LPR commander Maxim Martakov, a military policeman, and 6 fighters were killed under Chernukhino. They provided corridor for civilians. 11 UAF soldiers were killed, 29 wounded (Basurin)

04.02.15 UAF losses: 21 killed

03.02.15 UAF losses estimated at 79 killed.

02.02.15 UAF losses estimated at 130 killed.
 * Totals. In 29 days, up to ceasefire starting, 2760 UAF killed, 60 taken prisoners -Basurn
 * In 22 days since fighting restarted, 2056 UAF killed (Basurin)
 * 17 Jan.-3 Feb. UAF losses estimated at 1738 killed, 52 taken prisoners (Basurin, DPR).

Civilian Casualties
According to the Head of the DNI, the year the war seriously injured for life became disabled more than 6,200 people, including women, children and the elderly. More than two thousand inhabitants DNI missing. 08.02 Many instances of shelling of Donetsk with MLRS (including Uragans), and artillery. One very powerful explosion (videos available) was reported as well. Later it was said that a chemical plant producing paints and dry mixes in Donetsk was hit by a heavy artillery shell (DPR did not confirm that it was ammunition plant); preliminary information is that nobody was killed in that explosion.

07.02 After ceasefire ended on 6.02, Ukraine attempted an attack on the whole front line; the attack was repelled. 6 civilians were killed, 15 wounded in Donetsk due to shelling by Ukraine from the North-West.

05.02. Shelling by Ukraine had 7 civilians killed, 44 wounded, most of them in Donetsk. Schools, hospitals, kindergartens hit. Ukraine is using Smerch MLRS; range is 80 km; a full salvo covers an area of 8 football fields.

04.02 Donetsk hospital shelled, 5 killed, 5 wounded. Civilian objects destroyed: Donetsk 17, Makeevka 28, Gorlovka 2

02.02.15 16 killed, 34 wounded in DPR and LPR combined. Civilian areas hit by MLRS, Makeevka and Donetsk, (13), (14) on opolchenie map, 02.02.2015

22.01 Donetsk bus shelled at least 8 killed, 13 injured
 * Residents react abusively to UAF 'cyborg' officer captured earlier at the Airport and brought to the scene

13.01 Volnovakha bus: 12 killed, 18 wounded (talk). 24.01 Mariupol market shelling: 30 killed, 83 injured (talk).
 * Totals. Latest official UN figure: 224 civilians killed and 545 wounded in the three weeks leading up to 1 February. According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), the overall death toll now exceeds 5,358 people, with another 12,235 wounded since mid-April last year (Deaths here are likely certified, and mostly civilian).

Gorlovka
In 6 months ending July 2015, 164 civilians were killed, including 16 children; 501 were wounded, including 42 are children DAN news,  quoting city administration data,31 July 2015.

Military Hardware Lost
23.02 Zakharchenko: 'Poroshenko is our main ally'. In 5 days at Debaltsevo, 170 UAF tanks were captured or destroyed; most of them can be repaired. Also, 50 artillery pieces; they did not even count mortars. Ammunition, still move it out by railroad wagon-loads.

19.02 In Debaltsevo, opolchenie captured 265 pieces of UAF military equipment. 28 tanks, 63 BMP/BTR, 145 vehicles, 16 anti-aircraft guns, 13 artillery and mortar pieces were found in good condition and have been adopted by the DPR army. Also captured: about 1000 firearms, 39 ammunition storages and 2 railroad card with ammunition -Basurin

14.02 4 Grads launchers and ammunition seized by NAF near Debaltsevo -Basurn

03.02.15 Two UAF SU 25 were shot down (near Commisarovka and Chernukhino; one pilot bailed out). Also a drone shot down near Irvino

02-03.02.15 UAF lost 5 tanks, 1 BMP, 11 artillery pieces, one plane (and/or one Tochka U)
 * Totals: for 29 days, up to ceasefire: UAF lost 3 airplanes, 1 helicopter, 205 tanks, 182 BMP, BTR, MTLB, 208 field artillery guns, 124 vehicles  -Basurn
 * for 22 days since fighting restarted: UAF lost 3 planes, 1 helicopter, 168 tanks, 133 BMP/BTR, 124 artillery pieces, 94 vehicles
 * 17 Jan.-3 Feb. UAF lost 3 planes, 1 helicopter, 146 tanks, 114 BMP/BTR, 91 artillery pieces, 64 vehicles

Banned Weapons Use


04.02.15 UAF shelled Telmanovo from Mirnoe by Smerch MLRS, civilian houses destroyed

03.02.15 Luhansk and Donetsk: Smerch, heavy MLSRS with cluster munitions used by Ukraine.

02.02. Report on phosphorous ammunition used against civilians by Ukraine.

28.01. OSCE confirms (03.02 report) that cluster Smerch munitions were used against Artemivskyi district of Luhansk, shelling was from NNW. (Shelling done by Ukraine).

Economy

 * Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten: "The IMF has pumped billions in recent months into the Ukrainian financial system to stabilize the country's banks. Approximately $ 1.8 billion were going to the largest financial institution Private Bank, which is controlled by the oligarch Igor Kolomoiski. But instead of investing the money into the Ukrainian economy, Kolomoiski has managed to channel the emergency loans through a network of offshore companies abroad". Ukrainian anti-corruption project "Our Money" ('Наші гроші' (ukr) = "Nashi Groshi") is quoted as offering an explanation of the scheme, involving a 'purchase' of foreign goods which were never delivered, using a credit from Private Bank, and the payment deposited to accounts in off-shore branches of the Privat Bank.


 * Ukrainian $18 bln debt (held in bonds) will receive a 20% 'haircut'. However, between 2021 and 2040 investors will receive up to 40 per cent of the value of Ukraine’s annual economic growth above 4 per cent, although total payments will be capped at 1 per cent for the first four years.    Ukrainian GDP is 177.4 billion USD ‎(2013) -by google search. It went down quite a lot in 2014; but the IMF projection is 134 bln USD in 2020. One percent of that in growth is 1.3 bln; such amount may be paid to investors for 20 years bringing 26 bln USD. Write-off amount is about 3.6 bln USD. This wonderful deal is called a 'win-win' by Ukrainian finance minister and the Guardian . Franklin Templeton is one of the largest investors involved. Russia has 3 bln USD in Ukrainian debt and is not participating in the deal.(Vasili Muravitskii/Cassad brought up this matter).

News Sources

 * Opolchenie version of events. Rusvesna-news (rusvesna.su, Russian),   (rusvesna.su, English) , (rusnext.ru, Russian).
 * Official Donetsk People Republic (DPR) news dan-news.info.
 * Oplot TV-Donetsk Live now, youtube channel vk Oplot TV
 * First Republican Channel-DPR youtube vk ('official channel of DPR', created in April 2014, and unofficially broadcasting some material online; possibly re-broadcasting Russia 24 in their vacant slots.
 * Lugansk People Republic (LPR) news: LPR Sovet (legislature) site, news, luganskallnews.ru,  news, lug-info.com


 * Ukrainian version of events: TSN (Ukraine)(Ukrainian or Russian), Channel 5 -Ukraine
 * Rada; President.


 * OSCE SMM-Ukraine
 * TASS Chronicle-link to daily updates, (Russian),  TASS  - Ukraine (English) (easiest to search).
 * Daily Press Briefings - US Department of State

Opinion Polls

 * Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS)
 * 13,3% would vote for the party "Block of Petro Poroshenko"
 * 12,8% - for the All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland" (Yulia Timosenko)
 * 6,8% - for the party "Union Samopomich" (Sadovyi)
 * 5,8% - for the Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko,
 * 4,1% - for the party "Opposition block" (Boyko) --formerly 'Party of Regions'-Yanukovich
 * 3,1% - for the party "Civil position"
 * 3,0% - for the party "Right Sector"
 * 3,2% - have crossed all the parties /spoiled bulletin
 * 14,3% - chose not to vote,
 * 23,5% - hard to choose,
 * 2,6% - refusal
 * 2,6% - refusal


 * Source: Socio-Political Situation In Ukraine: July 2015. Report also have opinions on various peace/Russia issues, by region (English).


 * How Do The Attitude Of Ukrainians To Russia And Russians To Ukraine Has Changed


 * In DPR/LPR, polling is done by Center for Sociological Study 'Special Status' (Центр социологических исследований «Особый статус» -russ.) Here is their opening presentation.  Poll results are published by news sources.
 * DPR poll conducted in the beginning of August in 19 DPR towns, 5900 people took part, 5% statistical error
 * 43 % for DPR to join the Russian Federation (33.8% 3 months ago)
 * 17 % for DPR to be independent ('sovereign') (42.8 % 3 months ago)
 * 18 % for the 'creation of a joint state' (unclear what that would be exactly- some sort of autonomy aligned with Russia)
 * 11 % ('not more than')  for DPR as a part of Ukraine. 14.9 % see some future with Ukraine following Minsk agreements (18.8 % 3 months ago)

Abbreviations Used
DPR: Donetsk People Republic (prime minister: Alexander Zakharchenko)

LPR: Lugansk People Republic (head: Igor Plotniskii)

JCCC Joint Center for Control and Co-ordination, consists of Ukrainian and Russian military officers,- tries to mediate to have ceasefire implemented.

MLRS: Multiple Launch Rocket System, Grad/Uragan/Smerch. Uragan or Smerch typically have cluster munitions

UAF (=AFU): Ukrainian Armed Forces

NAF (=AFN): Opolchenie, Novorossia Armed Forces

OSCE: Organization for Security and Co‑operation in Europe

RSG: recon and subversion group

SMM: Special Monitoring Mission-OSCE