Ukraine news

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Recent updates

January, 2016
29.1 It is reported that UAF resumed shelling along all of the separation line. Mortars (82 and 120 mm), and RPG were used.

27.1 Plotniskii stated that discussion of constitutional amendments in Rada is taking place without taking into consideration requirements of Donbas; urges to have a special status for Donbas on a permanent basis; makes suggestions on changing article 133 of constitution, or article 18 of Transitional Regulations. States that LPR and DPR representatives have to take part in discussion, and offers that their representatives and legal team are ready to go to Kiev immediately -Rusvesna.
 * This is a joint position with DPR

Security situation deteriorated. UAF shelled DPR 22 times. "Grad" was used (for the first time in 2016) in UAF shelling of western suburbs of Donetsk. Mortars (120 and 82 mm), BMP, RPG, grenade launchers were used as well. A woman was wounded in Zaitsevo, north of Gorlovka -Rusvensa

26.1 Ukrainian military suddenly left the Joint Center for Control and Co-ordination (JCCC), except the Mariupol direction. In DPR it is suspected that provocations may be planned -Rusvesna

The Government of Ukraine adopted a resolution on the elimination of the concern "Antonov". Previously, three companies forming the concern have left it and were transferred to Ukroboronprom. Antonov concern is famous for the world's heavisest planes, and Ruslan

USA is to create a new defense holding in Ukraine, based on Motor Sich-Lenta.ru, intelligenceonline.fr, bmbd blog

25.1 Voting on constitutional amendments may happen on Jan 28, Thursday. There are contradictory views on whether it will go ahead. Poroshenko is said to have 296 votes out of 300 required to pass-Vgliad.ru

UAF shelled DPR almost 1200 times in one week, including 404 times when heavy weapons were used. Shelling was provocative to draw a response and accuse DPR in violating ceasfire -Basurin, DAN news. 24.1 At ammunition storage in a settlement of Balakleia (Kharkov region) ammunition loading for "ATO" began. 500 people are involved in loading operation, according to DPR intelligence reports-Basurin. Ammunition will be sent by rail and road to the area close to the separation line.

Ukrainian government is planning to transfer to mandatory contract service and force to stay on the front lines about 10,000 servicemen drafted in the 4-th mobilization wave-DAN news

Deinego on latest Minsk round: (little actual progress to report)

23.1 A group from the left wing opposition celebrate in Kiev 362 anniversary of Pereyaslav Rada, union with Russia established by Bohdan Khmelnytsky - video.

Korban (who is under arrest) is replaced as UKROP party leader, Denis Borisenko is elected as a temporary head, for as long as Korban is unable to lead himself -UKROP announcement

US Ambassador Payett urges Ukraine to adopt constitutional amendments, decentralization and local governance. Poroshenko expects this to happen at the next session of Rada, as required by constution; the next session starts in February. But that there will be no special status, for anybody, according to him. According to Zakharchenko, constitutional amendments were not agreed with them (as specified by Minsk agreement).

22.1, LPR. Ukrainian Army shelled Bahmutovskaia highway from Krymskoe, with a 82 mm mortar. Also, Veselogogorovka was shelled y UAF from Troitskoe (map), from a 120 mm mortar, supposed to be withdrawn by 30 km -Rusvesna

20.1 UN Assessment Mission to Start Work in Ukraine January 23 (at the request of Ukraine)-Sputnik News.

Ukraine and Turkey discuss an alliance. Poroshjenko The Heads of State exchanged opinions on the de-occupation of Crimea and Donbass. Rusvesna-opinion piece, '...children game of making friends against somebody...'

16.1 OSCE inspectors fired on by Ukrainian "diversants" (RSG) using small arms weapons, when they inspected repair work of a gas pipe line Donetsk-Marinka (Rusvesna).

Ukraine stopped traffic of goods to Crimea, except "socially essential items" and "humanitarian aid" TASS (Rus).

Czech parliament deputy visited Donbas. Kiev protested. Kiev unable to hide the truth about events in Donbass – the Czech deputy- DONI.

15.1 Surkov -Nuland meeting in Kaliningrad, on Minsk agreements -TASS, English;talks update TASS (Engl).

Basurin warns on concentration of military equipment and personnel in the Mariupol-Novoazovsk direction, DONI (Donbas International News Agency, in English). Situation report-DONI.

14.1 Poroshenko: This year should become the year of ensuring peace and returning Donbas to Ukraine, (president.gov.ua -English), Jan.14, 2015 "“In 2016, we should restore Ukrainian sovereignty over the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions”" on Crimea: "President Petro Poroshenko noted that struggle for the return of Crimea remained on the agenda and Ukraine would suggest an international mechanism of de-occupation of the peninsula. “The optimal format is “Geneva Plus”: with participation of our partners from the EU, USA and, probably, signatory countries of the Budapest Memorandum,” the President said."

An aggressive flu virus has killed ca. 100 people and infected 120,000 in the three weeks since its outbreak primarily in eastern Ukraine.

12.1 Right Sector members stand trial in Uzhgorod, Ukraine. It is said that they have been involved in a domestic fistfight, and are seen heavily beaten up on the photos-Uzhgorod.in

11.1 It is said that Boris Gryzlov has visited Kiev to meet Kuchma, prior to a trilalteral group meeting in Minsk. That meeting was protested by Ukrainian nationalists; confirmed by Kuchma press secretary.

10.1 A DPR republican guards fighter was killed in the evening of Jan.9 by Ukrainian sniper fire in the village of Zaitsevo, to the north from Gorlovka. Also 7 tank shots were fired into Zheleznaia Balka settlement, south of Gorlovka DAN news, Jan.10, 2016, quoting DPR MOD. 9.1 Ex-President of Ukraine Kravchuk said, in an interview to Ukrainian 5 Channel, that Minsk agreements addressed only most urgent issues (weapons pull-back et al), but not the main thing, how to stop the murders, blood, death in Donbas. "We should not be afraid of a special status for Donbas" said Kravchuk. Rusvesna; 112.ua.

4.1 Russia starts supplying gas to Ukraine's Genichesk — Russia's deputy PM, TASS (En).

Ukraine completely cut water supply to LPR at one of the stations, and cut by 50 % at another (blaming this on accident, but details were not provided). Rusvesna

According to Ukraine, Russia completely cut transit of goods through Russia. Trucks to Kazakhstan are only allowed via Belarus border and only if they are GLONAS -equipped (GPS analogue in Russia) -RIA. There is a new tracking system in Russia for big enough trucks, this may be a related issue (TBC)

1.1.Ukraine-EU free trade agreement goes into force, Kyiv post, Jan. 1, 2016. Russian counter-measures come into force as well.

93.1% of Crimea residents oppose electricity supplies on Ukraine’s conditions - pollster, TASS, Jan. 1, 2016.

December, 2015




26.12 Gryzlov appointed plenipotentiary representative in Contact Group on Ukraine - Kremlin, TASS (Eng). Gryzlov is an experienced politician, hailing from St. Petersburg. He was Duma Speaker ( twice) and the ruling party leader in the past; on the Russian Security Council since 2012. He led MOI reforms as a minister of interior in early 2000's.  (Wikipedia, Rus.), (Eng).

An 'explosion' (grenade/IED ?) in Kiev, one killed (report and video). 25.12 Donetsk residents staged a rally protesting continued Ukrainian shelling and Minsk agreement violations ("Ukraine, do not lie to the world!; Ukraine, stop shelling!", Ukraine is violating Minsk agreements!").

24.12 Gennady Korban was arrested again after a search of his flat in Dnepropetrosvsk,  taken to Kiev for a compulsory medical examination (see  31 Oct.'15 archive for the previous arrest ). (Korban auto-biography -Rus.)
 * 25.12 Korban underwent urgent surgery due to risk of a heart attack, transferred to an intensive care unit in a Kiev hospital. Despite that, he was taken to a court in Kiev the next day (26.12), for a decision on a change of conditions of his detention.
 * Ukrop party accused Poroshenko inner circle of political repressions (google-translated, 26.12)
 * Boris Filatov stepped down as Rada deputy, after winning the mayor of Dnepropetrovsk elections (17.11.15)

23.12 A Gallup Poll released today finds that Poroshenko's approval rating is at 17% (down from 47% in 2014), on par with Yushchenko's rating in 2008 but 11 p.p. lower than Yanukovic's in 2013. The government as a whole has an approval rating of not more than 8%, on par with the situation three years after 2004's "Orange revolution". This with Crimea and the peoples republic's not included in the poll.

22.12 'Unconditional ceasefire' announced -see further under Resurgent Events.

21.12 An explosion at a public transport stop in the center of Donetsk was reported. Ukrainian RSG is suspected.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced that he has signed a decree on the introduction of the most favored trade regime with Ukraine, instead of a free trade zone  agreement with Ukraine (the change removes some of the benefits). Further sanctions will be introduced against Ukraine from January 1, 2016. (TASS-Rus.), google translation. At about the same time, it was announced that Russia, EU, Ukraine to hold talks on risks of association agreement (TASS-Eng.). Those talks have failed (which does not mean that they cannot be revived).
 * 24.12 Ukrainian Rada adopted a law on introducing similar 'adequate' sanctions against Russia from Jan 1

Russia will go to court to claim back the 3 bln $ loan given to Ukraine, at time of Yanukovich presidency. The loan was due for repayment on Dec. 20, 2015; Ukraine announced that it will not pay (RIA).

18.12 Ukraine says it can’t repay debt to Russia, RT, Dec. 18 2015.

UAF shells Petrovskii district of Donetsk, self-propelled artillery, tanks, mortars use. Clashes in the Donetsk airport area were reported.

UAF should leave 7 settlements in the neutral zone- Alexander Lukashevich, Russian representative at OSCE.

EU Backs Visa-Free Access for Ukraine, Georgia. EU governments, parliament need to sign off on it in 2016, WSJ, Dec. 18, 2015. Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten, google translated:
 * Just hours after the EU had to admit to not being able to solve the refugee crisis from Syria together, the Commission sets the next character in a very questionable direction; The European Commission recommends the abolition of visas for citizens of Ukraine and Georgia. The Commission was able to propose to EU leaders that they take rapid decisions on visa liberalisation for the three countries, said European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker on Friday on the outskirts of the EU summit. The background are geopolitical considerations from Washington, which can be seen especially in the context of NATO strategy: Ukraine is upgraded with European taxpayers' money to the NATO outpost against Russia. The country has long been bankrupt, but is held by  European taxpayers from going under the water. But the money does not come for the benefit of ...population in deep distress but for more weapons. The government recently approved the new budget. This budget has its center of gravity  not in  social or educational programs, but in military spending.

Visa program is designed to allow citizens of Ukraine and Georgia to travel to EU countries visa-free, for up to 90 days of stay within any 180-days period. But visa/work permit is still needed to work (this fact is often hidden from view creating wrong impression), and there is no social protection, so desire to achieve this 'visa-free regime' is rather illusory, and hopes it will improve life are misplaced; certainly this does not justify the high cost in injured and killed and left homeless in the conflicts. (Visa regime for Ukraine and Georgia is along the lines of the Eastern Partnership, currently in place for Moldova. But visa-free travel for Moldova is restricted to short visits and does not allow to work.)

16.12 IMF recognizes Ukraine’s contested $3bn debt to Russia as sovereign, RT, Dec. 16, 2015.
 * IMF allows lending to countries with arrears (to accommodate Ukraine); Russia prepares to go to court over Ukraine debt, RT, Dec. 8, 2015.

Avakov issued a video of the conflict with Saakashvili. At an official meeting chaired by Poroshenko, Saakashvili accused Avakov of corruption, promised a proof, was doused with a glass of water (the quarrel is conducted in Russian language, of course)

15.12 Leading Dutch paper De Telegraaf reports (English translation) about corruption in the SBU including ties of Nalyvaichenko to art smuggling schemes, calling into question the integrity of evidence provided by them for the MH17 investigation.

14.12 DPR publishes map of Minsk agreement violations by UAF; over 430 artillery and armed vehicle pieces near the separation line. Appeals to Normandy format countries to give an evaluation of military build-up in Donbas.

12.12, LPR. Cossack opolochenie commander Pavel Dremov killed when his car was exploded on the road Pervomaisk-Stakhanov. His driver died as well. It is said that Dremov was to be married in the city of Stakhanov. Dremov had a well known falling out with LPR head Plotniskii and accused him of illicit dealings. LPR police opened an investigation, blamed 'a special  Ukrainian subversive and terrorism group' operating in the republic for his murder (Rusvesna, 12.12.2015)
 * Dremov memorial meeting in Stakhanov, many attended (photos, videos-Cassad)
 * Why commanders are killed in LPR? - Graham Phillips interviews Igor Plotniskii (google translated text and video), Rusvesna, 22.12.2015 (Carpenter=Plotniskii, Brain = Mozgovoi). 'There are many mysteries in the death of Mozgovoi...The war is not over, and Ukrainian RSG are still operating...suddenly remembered about the "Harry Potter"  books by JK Rowling  and mentioned in his speech that "the love of family - the best body armor".

11.12. Rada meeting. Deputies hoped that Prime Minister Yatseniuk, whose 'immunity' deal expired after one year, during which he could not be fired, will present a full report on his activities, as required by the regulations. Initially, the Prime Minister even has requested  a three hours time slot. But, appearing in parliament, Yatsenyuk was limited to 15-minute presentation and responses to cues from the audience, almost turning this into the traditional Friday "hour of questions to the government. He proceeded with describing his reform plans and called to support the budget proposal -TASS (Rus.) Some skirmishes occurred at the meeting when Oleg Barna, a Poroshenko block deputy, tried to remove Yatseniuk from the podium. (Barna subsequently was taken off Poroshenko block list).

8.12 IMF “Forgives” Ukraine’s Debt to Russia, M. Hudson, Global Research, Dec. 9, 2015

8.12 Joe Biden visited Ukraine. Some highlights of the visit include showcasing support of the current government, including Prime Minister Yatseniuk, while criticizing corruption.
 * What Joe Biden really told Ukrainians, A. Vasiliev, Vzgliad, Dec 10, 2015. (Joe Biden): Constitutional reform that includes judicial reform and decentralization does not compromise your sovereignty, it enhances it. It’s an important step to building a strong new nation. It is important for Ukrainian European future (Biden is turning away from the audience and the following phrase is addressing someone in the government box).  This issue of federalism is a thing that almost prevented our nation from coming into being.  (Biden turns back to the audience, makes a  theatrical pause, takes a look at those in the audience, and begins to dictate:) Autonomous independent states, the determination to have their own police forces, their determination to have their own education system, to have their own government under a united constitution.
 * Federalization was omitted in the synchronously translation to Ukrainian. Це так само відбувалося і в нашій країні, і майже… (вздох, бормотание, пауза, режиссер трансляции переключает камеру с Байдена на правительственную ложу)… подібна ситуація. (This also happened in our country, and almost ... (sigh, murmur, pause, director of broadcast switches camera  from Biden to government box)... a similar situation). For a long time, federalization was proposed as a solution to the crisis by Russia and the 'rebels', but strongly resisted  by Ukrainian authorities.
 * Biden speech in Rada-video.
 * Corruption in Ukraine: Making Joe Biden mad as hell, The Economist, Dec 12, 2015
 * Russia FM: Biden’s remarks in Kiev maintain tension in Ukraine to put pressure on Russia, TASS (Eng), Dec. 9, 2015
 * Russian lawmaker says US position on Crimea of no importance to Russia,, TASS (Eng), Dec. 8, 2015

4.12 A settlement Zaitsevo in the buffer zone under Gorlovka was shelled by Ukraine, and a woman was killed. According to Basurin (DPR), this was a result of mortar fire from the positions of a nationalist battalion "Aydar", under the command of Ukrainian lt. col. Melnichuk. In another incident, a school in Zaitsevo was shelled from an automatic grenade launcher while children were at school. Children were evacuated; no casualties reported; but the shelling continued for most of the day. School building was damaged, and power supply in the settlement disrupted.

4.12 Basurin: "Yesterday the military and political leadership of Ukraine announced the "victorious" peaceful seizure of settlements of Pavlopol and Pishevik, in the Mariupol direction. Violent capture of those settlements by UAF  is a precondition (i.e.  precursor) for the resumption of hostilities".

2.12 Oligarch Firtash cancels first post-Maidan trip to Ukraine after Interior Minister Avakov posts to facebook a picture of ten masked and heavily armed Azov fighters at the airport "waiting for him".

1.12 Mariupol elections: Vadim Boychenko (manager of a plant of Rinat Akhmetov) became the mayor; Opposition block won 2/3 of new seats; Poroshenko block below 5% (unofficial results).

November, 2015
28.11.2015, DPR. Situation is little changed overall. Donetsk: OSCE observers, together with representatives of the Ministry of Defense and JCCC began to inspect and record the effects of yet another shelling in Oktiabrskii micro-district of Donetsk, Czechoslovakia street, where the day before two houses burned  as a result of Ukrainian shelling. The first results showed that the shelling was by 120-mm mortars, grenade launchers, and BMP. In addition, 120mm mortar shell hit another house,  and a gas pipeline was damaged  nearby. Google translated Cassad report, Donetsk area-many photos, videos, and attitudes.

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26.11 Night shelling by Ukraine from Peski (does not respond to provocations"-rusvesna)

24.11 Drone footage shows heavy Ukrainian self-propelled artillery in Marinka, 3 km from separation line, in serious violation of Minsk agreement.

Alexander Zhuchkovskii, pro-opolchenie activist, writes a long letter expressing grave concern that while attention of the world is elsewhere, a serious deterioration in Donbas may occur.

Documenting Incidents, Human Rights violations

 * Interactive map of human rights violations, human rights NCO organization 'Just Defense' based in Moscow in partnership with Ombudsman-DPR vkontakte (vk.com) Ombudsman-DPR -Daria Morozova  (announcement video).

Analysis

 * Why They Are Killing Donbass? Novorossia TV with English subs. Blames consumerism, has very interesting cultural observations and quotations (incl late acad. Vladimir Arnold at 21:23 on educational reasons).

Blaming Ukraine
Gennady Korban (Kolomoiskii team) "ATO operation handling was a failure" ru.tsn.ua 'Korban made statements about corruption [...] and failed ATO handling'. Previously, criticized using heavy weapons in Donbass and suggested that at most police action is appropriate.

Blaming Russia

 * '(...) Lies about Ukraine', -Boris Nemtsov, Leonid Martyniuk-blames Russian Government (based on inaccurate or later reversed statements made at the official level).

Blaming the USA

 * Paul Craig Roberts ’ Address to the International Conference on the European/Russian Crisis Created by Washington', June 19, 2015. ...' Wolfowitz Doctrine...''The gullibility of the public has enabled Washington to establish the foundation for a new Cold War...' ' "Washington doesn’t want partners. Washington wants vassals" ' 'European governments and, of course, the lapdog UK government, are complicit in this implicit declaration of war against Russia and China. If it comes to war, Europeans will pay the ultimate price for the treason of their leaders [...] as Europe will cease to exist'.

Odessa news
15.1.2016 Maria Gaidar became assistant head of Odessa regional administration (Saakashvilli is the head)

6.1.2016 The subsistence minimum (this is known as poverty level in the West) per odessite in 2016 is as follows: from January 1 - 1330 hryvnia per month (that is 55 USD at this time), from May 1 - 1399 hryvnia, from December 1 - 1496 hryvnia 1 TV, Odessa.

27.8 DPR all-for all prisoners exchange list includes 63 anti-maidan activists arrested or charged after May 2 events.

19.7 Saakasvilli clashed with Filatov, Kolomoiskii ally. Clash has to do with elections in Chernigov where another Kolomoiskii ally Korban is running. Saakashvilli is said to come to support opposing candidate Berezenko, his main opponent, but gave a different reason for the visit; that ended in verbal and almost physical clash with Filatov (video), and a court case threatened by Filatov.

17.7.2015 Maria Gaidar appointed vice-governor responsible for social policy. She is a daughter of late Yegor Gaidar (a reformer, acting prime minister of Russia in the second half of 1992). Indicated that her priority will be to show residents that regional authorities care about them. tAfter showing reluctance to persistent journalist questions on who Ukraine is fighting with, eventually provided] politically correct answer telling that Russia attacked Georgia and Ukraine (on her 4th attempt).

30.5.2015 Mikheil Saakashvili appointed governor of Odessa region. Poroshenko stated that knows Saakashvilli for a long time and trusts him. Control of Odessa port which may be used for military aid,  Transnistria border, and creating positive image abroad,  are seen as some of the reasons behind the appointment. Port control and other economic matters placed Saakashvilli on collision course with Kolomoiskii, whose ally was a previous Odessa governor.

Photos/Videos
Debaltsevo Damage to houses, big craters. It is said in the article that sometime UAF intentionally damaged houses by a direct fire.

Uglegorsk: NAF arranged a corridor for civilians (English sub.) Donetsk children Enakievo Gorlovka Nikishino Nikishino (center) Uglegorsk

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 * Donetsk Airport ~ Before and After, January 2015 . 3D model-sketchlab
 * Luhansk Airport photos,-Graham Phillips and Cassad.

Ukrainian Agony
December 20, 2015: German freelance journalist Mark Batalmai, who has lived in Donetsk since mid-2014 and worked embedded with the opolchenie, releases his crowdfunded full-length documentary "Ukrainian Agony" in an English-language version (German-language original).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsQX6Lm142g

Agreements

 * 22.7.15 Under-100 mm weapons withdrawal was agreed Poroshenko statement: ' I hope it will be the real beginning of the ceasefire'.
 * 12.2.15 Two documents were agreed: on measures on implementing Minsk protocol (English language PDF here).

Resurgent Events?
Since now for the (n+1) time unconditional ceasefire is announced, although I do hope that one is the last, there is no warranty. So I'll just keep labels and dates for important but so far resurgent events here.
 * Unconditional Ceasefire in Donbas.
 * 23.12.15 (starting 0:00, Dec 23, 2015, as announced-TASS
 * (22.7.15)
 * (12.2.15)


 * Donetsk Airport, Donetsk suburbs shelled by Ukraine
 * 26.1.16(tank fire);25.1.16;21.1.16; 20.1.16;15.1.16; 13.1.16;31.12.15 (Staromikhailovka); 29.12; 28.12.15 (Zhabichevo); 27.12.15(Petrovskyi) ; 26.12.15(Spartak); 24.12.15 ; 13.12.15 (Dokuchaevsk).
 * (Every other day, up until now)


 * Gorlovka, nearby villages shelled (Rusvesna updates-Gorlovka)
 * 21.1.16; 11/12.1.16 (Engl).; 10.1.16 (1 DPR killed) 9.1.2016; 27.12.15; 24.12.15.
 * (Similar to the above)


 * Villages near Mariupol shelled by Ukraine
 * 25.1.16 (artillery, from Mariupol);Kominternovo: 21.1.16;31.12.15 29.12.15 ; 24.12.15 + Basurin & OSCE came under sniper fire, 27.12

....

Updates
27.1.16 Constitutional amendments: Russia's position in Minsk talks:
 * the vote on the Constitution of Ukraine should be tightly linked to the simultaneous adoption of the amendments to Articles 1 and 10 of the law on the special status of Donbass by giving special status of a permanent framework according to "Steinmeier formula";
 * revision of the amendments to the law on the special status should be agreed in the contact group;
 * A legal formula has to be found that guarantees that paragraph 18 of the transitional provisions of the Constitution will refer to the current wording of articles 2-9 of the law on the special status and to new, agreed by the contact group, wording of Articles 1 and 10;
 * This formula should be fixed (закрепить (Rus) = lit. 'fix, make firm'; here 'used'/'entered') in the Constitution of Ukraine;
 * it is also necessary to legislate in the Constitution of Ukraine, that the powers of those representatives elected in Donbass elections under a separate law will not be discontinued in 2017, as is envisaged in the constitutional reform for the rest of Ukraine

Ukraine Contact Group notes "good exchange of views" — OSCE official, TASS-English

11.1. 2016 Boris Gryzlov visited Kiev. Next trilateral group meeting is on 13.1.2016 in Minsk.

Normandy four agreed to extend Minsk agreements into the year of 2016, TASS, Dec. 30, 2015

24.12.2015 Kuchma fools around trying to reinterpret Minsk agreements, demanding border control and in effect DPR/LPR disarmament prior to elections. This is not what was agreed (and could not possibly be agreed the way he tries to put it now, with Novorossia advancing militarily at the time of the agreement). Dirty games now, and so not surprisingly no progress... 18.11.2015 Ukraine did not show up for a contact group meeting where a law on special elections in Donbas was to be discussed. Previously, it was reported that sides could not reach an agreement. According to Pushilin, agenda included a ban for Ukrainian political parties to participate in local elections in Donbas, mechanism of participation for temporary displaced persons, and amnesty law.

15.3 Minsk 3 ? It is rumored that part of Ukrainian leadership is seeking a compromise and another Minsk meeting. Maybe an info release merely testing waters; but the essence of compromise is said to be a special mode to local government which covers the entire territory of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions (including those controlled by Ukraine), but these areas will be led by the people agreed as Kiev and Moscow, and the other members of the Minsk process (Germany and France). It is said that a similar proposal was made a year ago after a meeting involving Kuchma, Medvedchuk, and DPR, but Poroshenko refused to consider it and started the ATO instead. Ukrainian media claim that the plan is actually coming from "representatives of Moscow".
 * Kremlin 'melancholically denied' (Cassad) re-interpretations/free interpretations of Minsk TASS

12.6.15 Poroshenko expects to submit de-centralization bill to Rada by the end of parliamentary session in July
 * other constitutional changes proposed by the sides: see news entry for 9.6.15 above

10.6.15 Kuchma: Russia insists on including Novorosiia representatives into tripartite liaison group, Normandy format; but his is not acceptable to us; they are included as consultants.

17-19.03 Russia called for a UNSC closed door meeting to discuss Ukraine breaking Minsk 2 agreements. Later Lavrov criticized the US position, and indicated further diplomatic moves and planned meetings in in Normandy format 16.03 Special status law requires elections based on laws of Ukraine prior to such special status. LPR/DPR were not consulted about this (although that is required in Minsk 2 agreements). With leaders of LPR/DPR and Soviets recently elected already, another elections will be problematic. There were no local elections though, may be local elections can be arranged in a way acceptable to both sides.

14.03 Poroshenko introduced special status law for Rada consideration -TASS quoting Rada site.

13.03 Zakharchenko and Plotniskii write to Hollande and Merkel about Ukraine not fulfilling its obligations: not following schedule on heavy weapons withdrawal; (most importantly) Rada has not started discussing special status for Donetsk, Lugansk regions--that work is supposed to finish by 14 March; continued economic blockade.

27.02 UNSC meeting on Ukraine started with OSCE report, highlighting state of affairs and challenges OSCE faces. Overall partial calming of warfare in the past several days noted. Neither side was willing to provide details of heavy weapons they posses, or their exact destination after proposed withdrawal. Technology (e.g. satellite), experts, and procedures need to be upgraded for OSCE to fulfill its required mission (video of OSCE presentation in Russian translation is here, other languages not found at this time)
 * abc news report dailystar SBS
 * Churkin gives a brief account of the UNSC closed door meeting TASS-English

24.02 FM meeting in Normandy format ended in Paris; heavy weapons withdrawal, verification, Debaltsevo were discussed, nothing new signed. Germany has concerns with implementation.

19.02 Poroshenko has held a phone conversation in the Normandy format, told them "not to pretend that the events in Debaltseve meet the Minsk agreements". He has also urged to elaborate clear guarantees for the possible attempts of violating the given agreements in the future. (Debaltsevo situation was known in Minsk--indeed he should not be pretending).

18.02 Poroshenko plans to ask for UN peacekeepers

17.02 UN SC unanimously approved a resolution supporting Minsk agreements. (Yet, testy rhetoric noted by Churkin)

14.02 Russia introduced UN SC resolution approving Minsk agreements of February 12. So far, English speaking world, UK and USA, did not clearly expressed their positions, and it may give an indication. So far, it was along the lines that Russia has to deliver, and may be further sanctioned otherwise, while Ukraine has nothing to deliver, and will not be sanctioned for failures. Russian officials called for a change of such approach, taking a position that the conflict is internally Ukrainian and Russia is not a participant (example). While Russian media are making presentations indicating that it is the USA who is a participant, in Kiev overlord capacity (example).

12.02 Two documents were agreed: 10.02 Contact Group agrees (a plan of)  heavy troops withdrawal, ceasefire regime -TASS
 * on measures on implementing Minsk protocol (English language PDF here). Ceasefire starting on February 15; separation of heavy weapons (from actual line for Ukraine, and from September 19 line for Novorossia; this enlarges separation), starting in 2 days from ceasefire, finishing in 14 days. All for all prisoners exchange, to finish in 5 days from separation begins. Time limits are given for all major steps. Return of border control to Ukraine is agreed to occur after local elections and constitutional reform (taking interests of breakaway regions into account)
 * declaration of support of Ukrainian peace settlement. This includes support and control of implementation.
 * It may be the case that sides do not make binding obligations, but approve and support listed measures (language is a bit vague, if something is broken later, or sides do not agree whether later vague steps actually occurred, not clear exactly what will follow)

Plotniskii, Zakharchenko press statement (English subs)

Still no direct contact between official Kiev and Novorossia. -(Mentioned by Putin in his press statement as one of the reasons negotiations took so long, had to go back and forth with Trilateral Group).

08.02 After telephone conference today, it is said that Normandy four to meet in Minsk on 11.02 if some positions will be resolved prior to that. Details of positions not explained. (Lukashenko talked to both Putin and Poroshenko about this and is happy and keen for them to come to Minsk)

06.02 Hollande-Merkel-Putin talks are finished in Moscow, it is said that a Normandy format document is being prepared based on meetings in Kiev and Moscow. Phone conference call in Normandy format expected on Sunday. (--Putin spokesman Peskov, TASS).) Putin off to Sochi, meets Lukashenko and rests; Hollande and Merkel also departing Moscow.

Petro Poroshenko, Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande insist on the immediate and unconditional ceasefire in the Donbas

Plotniskii and Zakharchenko press conference -explains Republics position why it is not their fault that latest Minsk meeting did not succeed (English subs).

Victor Baloga, Governor of trans-Carpathian region of Ukraine, proposes a referendum on whether to continue war or separate from the rebel regions. Also, Gennady Korban, assistant Governor, Dnepropetrovsk, proposes to choose between war and an agreement.

Maps


Dragon-First maps; Kot Ivanov.

Total
8.7.15 Zakharchenko, at a a joint LPR/DPR press conference: "In 2015,  1212 people were killed, including 25 children under the age of 18 years ". During the conflict in 2014, 3864 DPR peeople  died, including 522 women and 65 children. "That is more than 5000 of our people were killed just because they are residents of Donbass." (unclear is this civilian deaths or total deaths--probably total). More than 6,200 people, including women, children and the elderly were seriously injured and became disabled for life were. More than two thousand DPR inhabitants are missing.

14.8.15 From the start of hostilities, 5061 people were killed, among them 4295 men and 766 women, according to the Office of the Commissioner for Human Rights in DPR; and according to the Center for Emergency Medical Aid, 6100 were wounded Dan-news, 14.8.15. The figure is close to the one given by Zakharchenko in July (he had a higher number of 5076, so a small discrepancy here)

Children killed
3.12.15 DPR ombudsman: during the conflict, almost 80 children were killed in Donbass, Rossiiskaia Gazeta, 3.12.2015. According to DPR ombudsman Yana Chepikova, uring the hostilities, 78 children were killed in DPR, 313 were injured, 35 of them seriously injured. In LPR, 30 children were killed according to data available.

Military Casualties
19.02 Zakharchenko: Ukrainian losses in Debaltsevo cauldron may be up to 3 -3.5 thousand killed. There are plans to release or exchange those taken prisoners.

16.02 UAF: estimated 60 killed; NAF 2 killed, 21 wounded (source).

14.02 for the day and up to the ceasefire started: UAF lost 111 killed, NAF lost 8 killed, 28 wounded -Basurn

13.02 up to 100 UAF killed  Basurin, DPR

12.02 Day + night, UAF lost 169 killed (links in the news section)

08.02 LPR commander Maxim Martakov, a military policeman, and 6 fighters were killed under Chernukhino. They provided corridor for civilians. 11 UAF soldiers were killed, 29 wounded (Basurin)

04.02.15 UAF losses: 21 killed

03.02.15 UAF losses estimated at 79 killed.

02.02.15 UAF losses estimated at 130 killed.
 * Totals. In 29 days, up to ceasefire starting, 2760 UAF killed, 60 taken prisoners -Basurn
 * In 22 days since fighting restarted, 2056 UAF killed (Basurin)
 * 17 Jan.-3 Feb. UAF losses estimated at 1738 killed, 52 taken prisoners (Basurin, DPR).

Civilian Casualties
According to the Head of the DNI, the year the war seriously injured for life became disabled more than 6,200 people, including women, children and the elderly. More than two thousand inhabitants DNI missing. 08.02 Many instances of shelling of Donetsk with MLRS (including Uragans), and artillery. One very powerful explosion (videos available) was reported as well. Later it was said that a chemical plant producing paints and dry mixes in Donetsk was hit by a heavy artillery shell (DPR did not confirm that it was ammunition plant); preliminary information is that nobody was killed in that explosion.

07.02 After ceasefire ended on 6.02, Ukraine attempted an attack on the whole front line; the attack was repelled. 6 civilians were killed, 15 wounded in Donetsk due to shelling by Ukraine from the North-West.

05.02. Shelling by Ukraine had 7 civilians killed, 44 wounded, most of them in Donetsk. Schools, hospitals, kindergartens hit. Ukraine is using Smerch MLRS; range is 80 km; a full salvo covers an area of 8 football fields.

04.02 Donetsk hospital shelled, 5 killed, 5 wounded. Civilian objects destroyed: Donetsk 17, Makeevka 28, Gorlovka 2

02.02.15 16 killed, 34 wounded in DPR and LPR combined. Civilian areas hit by MLRS, Makeevka and Donetsk, (13), (14) on opolchenie map, 02.02.2015

22.01 Donetsk bus shelled at least 8 killed, 13 injured
 * Residents react abusively to UAF 'cyborg' officer captured earlier at the Airport and brought to the scene

13.01 Volnovakha bus: 12 killed, 18 wounded (talk). 24.01 Mariupol market shelling: 30 killed, 83 injured (talk).
 * Totals. Latest official UN figure: 224 civilians killed and 545 wounded in the three weeks leading up to 1 February. According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), the overall death toll now exceeds 5,358 people, with another 12,235 wounded since mid-April last year (Deaths here are likely certified, and mostly civilian).

Gorlovka
In 6 months ending July 2015, 164 civilians were killed, including 16 children; 501 were wounded, including 42 are children DAN news,  quoting city administration data,31 July 2015.

Military Hardware Lost
23.02 Zakharchenko: 'Poroshenko is our main ally'. In 5 days at Debaltsevo, 170 UAF tanks were captured or destroyed; most of them can be repaired. Also, 50 artillery pieces; they did not even count mortars. Ammunition, still move it out by railroad wagon-loads.

19.02 In Debaltsevo, opolchenie captured 265 pieces of UAF military equipment. 28 tanks, 63 BMP/BTR, 145 vehicles, 16 anti-aircraft guns, 13 artillery and mortar pieces were found in good condition and have been adopted by the DPR army. Also captured: about 1000 firearms, 39 ammunition storages and 2 railroad card with ammunition -Basurin

14.02 4 Grads launchers and ammunition seized by NAF near Debaltsevo -Basurn

03.02.15 Two UAF SU 25 were shot down (near Commisarovka and Chernukhino; one pilot bailed out). Also a drone shot down near Irvino

02-03.02.15 UAF lost 5 tanks, 1 BMP, 11 artillery pieces, one plane (and/or one Tochka U)
 * Totals: for 29 days, up to ceasefire: UAF lost 3 airplanes, 1 helicopter, 205 tanks, 182 BMP, BTR, MTLB, 208 field artillery guns, 124 vehicles  -Basurn
 * for 22 days since fighting restarted: UAF lost 3 planes, 1 helicopter, 168 tanks, 133 BMP/BTR, 124 artillery pieces, 94 vehicles
 * 17 Jan.-3 Feb. UAF lost 3 planes, 1 helicopter, 146 tanks, 114 BMP/BTR, 91 artillery pieces, 64 vehicles

Banned Weapons Use


04.02.15 UAF shelled Telmanovo from Mirnoe by Smerch MLRS, civilian houses destroyed

03.02.15 Luhansk and Donetsk: Smerch, heavy MLSRS with cluster munitions used by Ukraine.

02.02. Report on phosphorous ammunition used against civilians by Ukraine.

28.01. OSCE confirms (03.02 report) that cluster Smerch munitions were used against Artemivskyi district of Luhansk, shelling was from NNW. (Shelling done by Ukraine).

Economy

 * Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten: "The IMF has pumped billions in recent months into the Ukrainian financial system to stabilize the country's banks. Approximately $ 1.8 billion were going to the largest financial institution Private Bank, which is controlled by the oligarch Igor Kolomoiski. But instead of investing the money into the Ukrainian economy, Kolomoiski has managed to channel the emergency loans through a network of offshore companies abroad". Ukrainian anti-corruption project "Our Money" ('Наші гроші' (ukr) = "Nashi Groshi") is quoted as offering an explanation of the scheme, involving a 'purchase' of foreign goods which were never delivered, using a credit from Private Bank, and the payment deposited to accounts in off-shore branches of the Privat Bank.


 * Ukrainian $18 bln debt (held in bonds) will receive a 20% 'haircut'. However, between 2021 and 2040 investors will receive up to 40 per cent of the value of Ukraine’s annual economic growth above 4 per cent, although total payments will be capped at 1 per cent for the first four years.    Ukrainian GDP is 177.4 billion USD ‎(2013) -by google search. It went down quite a lot in 2014; but the IMF projection is 134 bln USD in 2020. One percent of that in growth is 1.3 bln; such amount may be paid to investors for 20 years bringing 26 bln USD. Write-off amount is about 3.6 bln USD. This wonderful deal is called a 'win-win' by Ukrainian finance minister and the Guardian . Franklin Templeton is one of the largest investors involved. Russia has 3 bln USD in Ukrainian debt and is not participating in the deal.(Vasili Muravitskii/Cassad brought up this matter).

News Sources

 * Opolchenie version of events. Rusvesna-news (rusvesna.su, Russian),   (rusvesna.su, English) , (rusnext.ru, Russian).
 * Official Donetsk People Republic (DPR) news dan-news.info.
 * Oplot TV-Donetsk Live now, youtube channel vk Oplot TV
 * First Republican Channel-DPR youtube vk ('official channel of DPR', created in April 2014, and unofficially broadcasting some material online; possibly re-broadcasting Russia 24 in their vacant slots.
 * Lugansk People Republic (LPR) news: LPR Sovet (legislature) site, news, luganskallnews.ru,  news, lug-info.com


 * Ukrainian version of events: TSN (Ukraine)(Ukrainian or Russian), Channel 5 -Ukraine
 * Rada; President.


 * OSCE SMM-Ukraine
 * TASS Chronicle-link to daily updates, (Russian),  TASS  - Ukraine (English) (easiest to search).
 * Daily Press Briefings - US Department of State

English-language sources

 * DONI, based in Donetsk
 * TASS (Engl)
 * OSCE SMM

Opinion Polls

 * IRI poll, January 2016
 * Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), July 2015
 * 13,3% would vote for the party "Block of Petro Poroshenko"
 * 12,8% - for the All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland" (Yulia Timosenko)
 * 6,8% - for the party "Union Samopomich" (Sadovyi)
 * 5,8% - for the Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko,
 * 4,1% - for the party "Opposition block" (Boyko) --formerly 'Party of Regions'-Yanukovich
 * 3,1% - for the party "Civil position"
 * 3,0% - for the party "Right Sector"
 * 3,2% - have crossed all the parties /spoiled bulletin
 * 14,3% - chose not to vote,
 * 23,5% - hard to choose,
 * 2,6% - refusal
 * 2,6% - refusal


 * Source: Socio-Political Situation In Ukraine: July 2015. Report also have opinions on various peace/Russia issues, by region (English).


 * How Do The Attitude Of Ukrainians To Russia And Russians To Ukraine Has Changed


 * In DPR/LPR, polling is done by Center for Sociological Study 'Special Status' (Центр социологических исследований «Особый статус» -russ.) Here is their opening presentation.  Poll results are published by news sources.
 * DPR poll conducted in the beginning of August in 19 DPR towns, 5900 people took part, 5% statistical error
 * 43 % for DPR to join the Russian Federation (33.8% 3 months ago)
 * 17 % for DPR to be independent ('sovereign') (42.8 % 3 months ago)
 * 18 % for the 'creation of a joint state' (unclear what that would be exactly- some sort of autonomy aligned with Russia)
 * 11 % ('not more than')  for DPR as a part of Ukraine. 14.9 % see some future with Ukraine following Minsk agreements (18.8 % 3 months ago)

Abbreviations Used
DPR: Donetsk People Republic (prime minister: Alexander Zakharchenko)

LPR: Lugansk People Republic (head: Igor Plotniskii)

JCCC Joint Center for Control and Co-ordination, consists of Ukrainian and Russian military officers,- tries to mediate to have ceasefire implemented.

MLRS: Multiple Launch Rocket System, Grad/Uragan/Smerch. Uragan or Smerch typically have cluster munitions

UAF (=AFU): Ukrainian Armed Forces

NAF (=AFN): Opolchenie, Novorossia Armed Forces

OSCE: Organization for Security and Co‑operation in Europe

RSG: recon and subversion group

SMM: Special Monitoring Mission-OSCE