Talk:Attack on Red Crescent convoy in Urm al-Kubra

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As of now: --Resup (talk) 08:50, 20 September 2016 (UTC)
 * TASS, 20 Sept. 2016. US accusation, "most likely an airstrike, not by (US) coalition" is repeated, pointed out that UN could not confirm information on those killed "as was considered at that time, due to shelling". Apart from skeptical tone, no further comment provided in the article.
 * SANA. No comment on attack seen. Bogdanov visit and further fresh steps of solving crisis discussed
 * Joint press release of Red Cross/Crescent, around twenty civilians and Omar Barakat were killed, nothing about nature or origin of "horrific attack" --CE (talk) 12:18, 20 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Russia, Syria did not deliver strikes on UN aid convoy near Aleppo — ministry, TASS (Eng.)
 * '' "No airstrikes on the UN humanitarian convoy in the southwestern outskirt of Aleppo were carried out by the Russian or Syrian aviation," Konashenkov said. The Russian side did not monitor the movement of the UN truck convoy that came under attack near Aleppo after the humanitarian cargo was delivered to that city, he added.
 * Noted: From other comments made, it appears that Russian MoD finally watched White Helmets (nighttime) video, but not the morning photos; and can't see any munitions on White Helmets video. --Resup (talk) 14:01, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

"Anonymous US officials said"

 * BBC: But US officials, speaking in condition of anonymity, said two Russian SU-24 attack aircraft were in the sky above the convoy at the precise moment it was hit in Urum al-Kubra.
 * But that does not mean what they said is true. OK, there could be Russian planes in the sky; -and anywhere in the sky is ABOVE the convoy; and that could be for a period of time, possibly including strike time, because there was al Nusra attack on Aleppo and quite major fighting further east towards the city; so they might be checking it out. And one cannot say that a plane was directly above at strike time, because that 'moment of time' is like 7:30, +/- 10 minutes to half an hour, maybe; while it takes SU 24, flying at or above speed of sound, some 40 seconds to fly some 14 km to Aleppo front lines. And somebody who knows the strike time for sure, as well as where planes, if any, were at that very time, also knows who did it, without all this horseshit.
 * "There are no craters and the exterior of the vehicles do not have the kind of damage consistent with blasts caused by bombs dropped from the air," a statement from the defence ministry said.
 * Must be reading our page then? --Agreed. --Resup (talk) 00:48, 21 September 2016 (UTC)


 * Russian MoD General-Major Igor Konashenkov video, text, RT (Rus).
 * ''Russian planes did not plan, and did not perform any airstrikes in the area of Urum al-Kubra settlement (Российские самолеты не планировали и не наносили каких-либо ударов в районе населенного пункта Урум-Эль-Кубра). They were not present in that area at all (их в данном районе не было вообще).
 * see also: "Predator" drones?-below.
 * --Resup (talk) 19:42, 21 September 2016 (UTC)

What happened?
(After seeing nighttime video and immediate US accusations): Available evidence consists of videos and White Helmets story. Several destroyed trucks, fires still burning, no craters seen, some holes possibly from shrapnel but not for certain, and not a lot. There is a damaged passenger car clearly seen, but it could be damaged earlier. Content is thrown around but appears largely intact; possibly heating damage on packaging. Many ways to cause what is seen on video, some shelling (mortars/artillery/MLRS), staging, bombing from helicopter, or plane. Place, uncertain but building has distinct appearance and could be located. Time of attack, stated on the video, is 7:30 pm, Sept 19, 2016. --Resup (talk) 08:50, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

(After seeing some daytime photos/videos): clearly a quite substantial strike. Shrapnel damage, and fire damage. 4 twitter photos: photo 3, apparently an explosion at ground level, or possibly inside the cabin; no crater on the ground. Bent metal sheet on top appears to be by explosion outside; but also small part of roof is caved in a bit, making this tricky. Direct hit on top by aerial bomb will almost certainly obliterate the cabin, not slightly bent the roof in. Photo 4: small craters are seen mostly resembling mortar or MLRS, flying, apparently, left to right, but quite clearly not top to bottom. Elsewhere on this post, a collapsed wall. Getting tricky here. Thin wall, with some shrapnel damage (top right), and roof damaged, but like because the wall crashed down under it, not because roof is hit on the top; --but also not excluded that we do not see where it was hit, as it is gone now. --Resup (talk) 10:07, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

If there were planes in the area, that, with very high probability, should be known to Russian and US militaries, so if that's known why to play this hid and seek with some social media photos? Russian strike, in particular, does not seem to be likely as at this stage, they would be still obliged to coordinate with USA--Resup (talk) 10:24, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

Truck location likely negotiated long in advance and known to parties, and likely leaked to rebels. Hitting it intentionally does not seem very plausible. Provocation, knowing where they are too, is a possibility. --Resup (talk) 10:24, 20 September 2016 (UTC)


 * Rebels administered this whole area, had them stop and off-load here. The location would be known to that Russian drone and any Russians who mattered, and also to every terrorist with a mortar or rocket launcher in the area. But the terrorists and their supporters were clear it was a jet/helicopter/both, from Russia or Syria or both/whatever/not us. Uh-huh. Hell, they could have just raided the place, robbed and executed the aid workers, torched the trucks, and lobbed a few shells on it afterwards. Hypothetically. (BTW, any survivors? None that didn't pass through White Helmets and al-Nusra hands first.) --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:18, 20 September 2016 (UTC)


 * Visuals, First thoughts: I agree it's hard to make out any kind of craters Maybe just the trucks were all hit? The roadway seems weirdly smooth, like it was all re-graded overnight. (??) No barrel bomb fragments seen yet, nothing massively blown up as if by one, just light shrapnel like from a rocket all over, and everything burned. Firing directions could maybe be discerned. The location seems set - could double check more but most photos seem to be at the eastern location outside Urn al-Kubra. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:18, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

Another activist video with different claims, and photos appeared now giving 'craters' and 'bomb fragments' (main page). As Konashenkov put it, 'geometrically increasing pile-up' of contradictory and increasingly crappy accusations, 'a well known method of warfare, with obvious goals', and drowning remains of reasoning. Kerry accused ( BBC video) Russia in inconsistent response, but Russia was responding to this contradictory pile up in public statements, and informed US military on flight control data through military channels (Konashenkov said it was provided to a US colonel, name well known to USA). --Resup (talk) 22:34, 21 September 2016 (UTC)

Russians apparently told Kerry that their attack was on Khan Tuman, about 10 km SE from Urm al-Kubra, according to Kerry video on BBC (above). --Resup (talk) 22:55, 21 September 2016 (UTC)

Was exact overnight location agreed?
Confusing info on whether exact route and truck location at that time was agreed in advance. Western sources say aid was "agreed" (overall) and "destination known" (but was the exact route too?). Russian MoD says they did not monitor the convoy after 13:40 and as as far as they are concerned only rebels knew where exactly it is. Assuming it is accurate, it will be difficult for them to find it at this time on purpose to "attack" it, losing track at 13:40. It is on their video, but they might be not keenly interested to actively monitor, once it is out of their responsibility, and in any case did not know what happened next. 7:30 pm is after sunset and before moon rise (20:34), so difficult to spot by eye (especially so when getting closer to 8 pm). Trucks were standing there since 2 pm and engines were off, cold; so won't be seen in infrared either. But planes or helicopters will be excellently seen, infrared and radar, to blame and shame. With all that, if exact overnight location was not agreed, that would point to rebel attack as most likely. --Resup (talk) 17:58, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

Background
Happened right after embarrassing 'error' by coalition in Deir ez Zor, furious accusations at the UN, and followed by lapse of ceasefire at 7 p.m. Broader background, recently concluded Kerry -Lavrov talks (said to be opposed by parts of US government, so many hours break was required by Kerry to negotiate with Washington), and followed by ceasefire near collapse on the ground. Russia accusing USA of not separating moderate and radical opposition and not reciprocating steps to demilitarize agreed areas, etc. Further, approaching UN session, likely last for this US administration, and elections in USA. With ceasefire collapsing, blame games to start. --Resup (talk) 08:50, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

Rebel motives?
The attack has all the hallmarks of a Nusra / StateDept false flag attack. There in no proof that any airplanes were involved. This could as well have been a Hell Cannon or GRADs. The rebel have every motive to attack the convoy. Why should "Syrian Christians" have aid, when they have just refused the UN aid convoys to enter east Aleppo? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:50, 20 September 2016 (UTC)
 * 1) The aid sent by the Syrian government via Red Crescent was meant for government supporters in besieged areas and minorites. (The White Helmets guy on video says "Syrian Chrisians".)
 * 2) The convoy entered rebel held areas during the ceasefire. It was attacked half an hour after the ceasefire ended and the Syrian and Russian air forces resumed airstrikes.
 * 3) Rebels and their civilian supporters have blocked UN aid from reaching east Aleppo.
 * 4) * The ceasefire agreement comes with strings attached. If no aid is delivered, there can be no ceasefire. If there is no ceasefire, there is no need to separate al-Nusra from the "moderate" rebels.
 * 5) Rebels have said they will end cooperation with UN aid agencies because the UN "supports the regime".
 * 6) During the ceasefire the rebels merged their command structures. All may now be commanded by ex-Nusra.
 * 7) The White Helmets, who were first seen on the site after the attack, could se the SARC as a competitor operating on their "turf".


 * Is it acceptable to strike out someone else's text? But the Christians thing is a red herring. I heard it too, phoenetically it seemed clear. But it's at least a bit strane to say, and being a "center" of them, and Christian being not too far off from Crescent in sound, I'm pretty sure he's describing this like others do: the local center of the Syrian (Arab Red) Crescent. Other points: very interesting. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:03, 21 September 2016 (UTC)

Transit aspect
Rebel groups typically operate similar to gangs, having control on 'their' territory and receiving fees or other perks for transit. If there is a disagreement on any of that, 'something bad may happen'. In this case, a shipment coming from an enemy, to aid a Christian group, and arranged by enemies (crusaders/kafirs/takfirs/etc). Disagreements over participation in the relief deal, or relief distribution, may be additional motivating factors. --Resup (talk) 12:36, 20 September 2016 (UTC)
 * As noted, Christian aspect seems baseless. Otherwise, good point in line with some of Petri's above. Broadly, the problems that this obvious alleged airstrike happened in an area swarming with terrorist armed groups. That opens a lot of possibilities some people want to ignore. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:03, 21 September 2016 (UTC)

Survivors?
Did anyone from the convoy survive? Has anyone returned to Aleppo? Did they tell what happened? Was this information made public? There were 30 trucks in the convoy meaning 30 drivers. Then or twelve of these were "burned to death". This means a 50 to 60% survival rate. Eight SARC crescent personnel - most likely wearing the distinctive red outfits - were killed. If they had the same survival rate, then another twelve should be alive. Or did all of the SACR people die?

The activist are astonishingly certain that the head of the Red Crescent in Aleppo, Omar Barakat was among those killed. It is as if someone had seen him die, without being affected by the "blast" himself. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 17:12, 20 September 2016 (UTC)
 * BBC has this detail: The head of the Syrian Arab Red Crescent's office in Urum was killed, dying of his injuries as he waited hours to be evacuated. --Resup (talk) 20:44, 20 September 2016 (UTC)

Indeed, why don't we see any bodies and/or White Helmets desperately trying to save them? --Resup (talk) 18:16, 20 September 2016 (UTC)


 * The number of victims has now been upgraded, so that no survivors are to be expected: "19 civilians and 12 aid workers". See: FSA statement on Umr al-Kubra attack. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 21:21, 21 September 2016 (UTC)

"Predator" drone?
WTNxO8YZaTc
 * (See news on the main page, RT (Eng)., Sept., 2016). Usage is fire correction/observation, or strikes. Armaments used, according to wiki, is one of those options: 2 × AGM-114 Hellfire (MQ-1B); 4 × AIM-92 Stinger (MQ-1B);6 × AGM-176 Griffin air-to-surface missile (or combinations). One Griffin is enough for one truck. If trucks stand in one column, it can take out cabin of one and set fire to another; if in 2 columns, that may double. But it still seems under-powered in realistic situation to do the job reported. (FWIW, we do not see that many destroyed  trucks on photos, too)


 * ''The US-led coalition air forces did not carry out any missions over the Aleppo area where the UN aid convoy was hit, Adrian Rankine-Galloway, a Pentagon spokesman, told RIA Novosti.
 * There is Aljazeera 2 part series looking into drone use in Afghanistan. It explains that drones may be assigned to CIA (classified as a civilian agency), and flown by it or military; disclosure and war rules then do not apply. (Claims made by Aljazeera have not been independently verified).
 * --Resup (talk) 18:11, 21 September 2016 (UTC)

Trucks do appear to be in a 2-column on one of the photos, FWIW --Resup (talk) 23:05, 21 September 2016 (UTC)

Metal-Augmented Charge?
PavewayIV on comments on a post at Moon of Alabama that the video of the explosion shown by ABC shows the sparkles of a Metal-Augmented Charge blast (in which the explosive is surrounded by a mesh of fluorinated aluminium. This type of explosive are used in Hellfire AGM-114N missiles which are used on Predator drones, but not in Russian missiles.  He links to an ABC news video in which the sparkles are clearly seen in one frame at about 0.01.  Pmr9 (talk) 23:01, 21 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Interesting. When a bomb, a warhead packed with fluorinated aluminium powder surrounding a small charge, hits its target, the charge disperses the aluminium powder throughout the target building. The cloud then ignites, causing a massive secondary blast that tears throughout any enclosed space., somewhere--Resup (talk) 23:18, 21 September 2016 (UTC)


 * For my part, not having looked at the argument in detail, I'm skeptical. One question is why didn't the Russians notice this drone earlier? I'll come back to it soon. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:19, 22 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Konoshenkov said, in the very first sentence of his comment, that this was revealed publicly because Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications for U.S. President Barack Obama Ben Rhodes in 'categorical' (strong) form  accused Russia,  and further SU 24 accusation was made as a leak. Prior to that, radar control data was kept confidential. Detailed information (in the context, about Russia not making the strike, and possibly something else, not clearly stated) was provided by a Russian representative of the command at the airbase Khmeimim. to a US colonel (name not provided, said to be well-known to USA),  over the phone in the evening of Sept. 19. Also noted, commenter on moon of alabama, discussed above, made a point that late sparkling outer halo seen on one of videos is characteristic of hellfire missile (and possibly some other NATO munitions), but not Russian ones, which may spark but in a different way. This type of munition leave no/just one small crater and tend to cause fires. Shrapnel marks need separate explanation but other munitions could be used as well.  Don't know who is commenter but appears to be Western ex-military type; what he says makes sense. Watching some drone strikes, some instances resemble video above, and some don't. --Resup (talk) 09:03, 22 September 2016 (UTC)
 * PavewayIV says he is ex-US military. He has an account here, but is not very talkative. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 17:12, 22 September 2016 (UTC)
 * PavewayIV contributed extensively to the WhoGhouta blog a couple of years ago and his expertise helped to clear up several key questions. I would give considerable weight to his opinions on ordnance-related matters Pmr9 (talk) 19:22, 22 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Okay, I was wondering if the Russians had decided truth was a losing claim and they had to battle American allegations with their own (would not work if they tried, and I hope they don't). the details are compelling (speed and altitude given), there's even a graphic of the track (a bit cryptic), and the reason for delayed mention to the public is plausible. So I can see it as possibly valid, a wild claim but in line with wild stuff the US is doing lately with my tax $$. But still I'm going to stay a bit skeptical for good measure. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:08, 22 September 2016 (UTC)

Video?
We don't know whether this video is from the right place and time (though Western MSM and pro Western social media thought that it is). The video is most consistent with a drone use (not very fast, not high, stays put in a closed area). We also do not know for sure ourselves that late sparkling halo is exclusively hellfire or similar NATO munitions, but the case for this has been made elsewhere, discussed above. --Resup (talk) 09:53, 22 September 2016 (UTC)

Videos: facebook, ABC news. ABC news video shows in the beginning metallic based thermobaric, as discussed and linked above. On facebook, sparks are blurred. We also see 6 (apparently) munitions, going down, after the big blast (cluster munition? 6 griffins? why are they lightened up, as if to see them better? flares, not munitions?). Then we see somehow 7 of those things falling down; and a second thermobaric blast (if this is not fiddled video and shows right place at all). Was not looking into this as was not sure it is the same place, but mass and social media yell that it is. There is a sound of a plane or drone, but may be at some distance. If this is a single drone, Reaper, not Predator? Falling down things, going somewhere to the right, look like bombs, and not very smart ones, apart from being alight to show themselves ... A Reaper has enough to do it, but why? For the show? --Resup (talk) 23:49, 21 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Illuminating bomb is sensible to use here as no sunlight, moonlight, and cold truck. Could not find aerial bomb info or video, but here is a mortar version of illuminating munition. One of photos, nighttime, appears similar to what's on video. Possibly called flare, of a particular sort. In Russian, called осветительные (светящие) авиационные бомбы, illuminating (lighting) aerial bombs, and they are known since WW2 --Resup (talk) 09:03, 22 September 2016 (UTC)

Actually, hellfire claim is not easy to youtube-verify, in daylight it may look as a bright flash at one point and black smoke at another. In night vision, it may look as a flash with no sparkling, and they do not come visible on military on board videos. So this is an effect to be seen at night, with a good enough camera, and few people were 'lucky' to be in the right place at the right time to film this. Needs to be AGM-114N variant, and this is a nighttime effect, according to above mentioned comment. --Resup (talk) 10:41, 22 September 2016 (UTC)


 * I found one photo online that shows a similar sparkling effect. This is from Yemen and may have been some huge MOAB-fucking thermobaric bomb. (I was not a nuke.) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 21:22, 22 September 2016 (UTC)

This just would not go away
thiqa agency Published on Sep 22, 2016, Scenes shown for the first time about the moment of warplanes and helicopters targeted a convoy of the Red Crescent in the town of Brive # Horm_kabry west of Aleppo اورم_الكبرى =Urm al Kubra. Russian-styled fireball for you, russkie, blam-tararam.
 * I think their ability to produce all that crappy social media stuff simply exceeds ability to do something about it There are many dark nights out there, to go and film, whatever. Really they should determine from radar data, and let it stay with that, otherwise, unending soap opera, new episode every day. --Resup (talk) 20:09, 22 September 2016 (UTC)

Russian Drone Video
(space for drone video links and intro)


 * Syria aid convoy attack: What we know - a little more detailed and balanced than earlier reports, but still clearly slanted.
 * The Russian defence ministry later released surveillance footage filmed by a drone, which it said showed the stationary aid convoy being passed by a pick-up truck towing a heavy mortar.
 * But the Interpreter magazine reported that the video was filmed in the Aleppo suburb of Khan al-Asal, some 6.5km (4 miles) east of Urum al-Kubra.


 * It also pointed to screengrabs of other drone footage reportedly streamed online by Russia on the day of the attack that appears to show the convoy being unloaded. The timestamp says 18:41.

The Interpreter is a super-biased and unreliable source capable of making technically accurate points, when that doesn't interfere with their mission of demonizing the Russian and Syrian governments.

The video location could be right - the convoy would pass through Khan al-Assal. I may try and verify this. It doesn't debunk the Russian claim that I see. I think that is "here's a mortar truck passing the convoy." I don't think they made a claim as to where that was or wasn't.

The time issue - whatever the relevance is - is clearly incorrect. The screen time stamp does appear to say 18:41:38 (or swap 0s for the 8s, 10:41), but it doesn't seem correct either way. This would be 8 minutes after sunset at 6:33 local time, per NOAA solar calculator (to check - move the pin to the right area, select GMT +2 for time zone, DST on. This is clearly not after sunset but early afternoon, with sun shining down on the ground. In checking this, I found my earlier reading (225 deg = 2:25 pm) was a bit wrong. Measuring by the image, it's closer to 222 (range then = 222-225, weighted early) minus 13-15 deg for rotation from true north (did I forget to do this?) = 207-210 deg, which = app. 1:30-1:40 pm, or about the time the Russians say the convoy arrived (a no later than time). --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:19, 22 September 2016 (UTC)


 * Visually:


 * orange lines are on or near shadows from vertical edges - yellow bars show basic height of the trucks - ground measures start from the bottoms of these, visible or not. White lines for the one building, same concept - the right line is corner of building at ground level, over to corner of shadow. This fits on the same orange line. Orange line measured (222, previously got 225, so made that a range). The deviation from north is about 14-15 degrees clockwise. So azimuth is shifted down that many degrees and comes out saying the time Russia specified, or a hair earlier. The sun agrees with Moscow on that point. Cool, we can move forward. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:45, 22 September 2016 (UTC)