File:Urm al-Kubra Warehouse Attack Angles.png

Photo source: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/photos-syrian-aid-convoy-hit-by-air-strikes-that-killed-least-12-1582264

Damaged Red Cross and Red Crescent medical supplies are seen in a warehouse with a hole in the roofOmar haj Kadour/AFP

See Also: How we Can Know Russia Did Not Bomb the Aleppo Aid Convoy

Discussion
Minor point on graphics, but true vertical fall would be further back towards back pillar, -that way be assumed to be vertical. While through-the hole-into-crater path, obviously needs to go through the hole, on top if this is a 3D illustration. (Understood that it's tricky to draw those things with graphics ...Gives an idea as it is, too )--Resup (talk) 15:05, 28 September 2016 (UTC)
 * You can't see just where the line is, but maybe the circle is a bit too close to the camera. Otherwise it's about right. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:33, 28 September 2016 (UTC)

I have noticed that the flight path and the burn marks on the wall are in almost exactly a 90 degree angle. This is similar to the shrapnel pattern from a GRAD rocket. I do not know if mortar shells would explode as directionally. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 20:29, 28 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Anything with a radial or tube-shaped charge should do that, I think - definitely a rocket, possibly some mortar shells (don't know) --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:33, 28 September 2016 (UTC)


 * Most Grads are fragmentation sort, that will leave quite large shrapnel marks somewhere on walls, I'd think but I can't see any --Resup (talk) 23:29, 28 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Indeed, and one of the first things we noticed was similar but small marks on the boxes. I'm looking for shrapnel marks. If we take that orange area and extrude it radially around the magenta line, that's the main area to look at. Columns on right-hand and inner faces, high on the back wall, across the ceiling, angling across the truck's side (higher at the back end, lower near the middle-front) and into the boxes. And people, etc. The right-hand wall won't be marked much, near the bottom if at all, and into the boxed there and the ground. I see a few possible marks just inside the orange shape at the top, on the nearer pillar. But otherwise, nothing visible that's clear enough to call (some marks and dots, etc.).
 * 2 points on that: The resolution on these areas is not the best, as they're mostly a ways across the room, and most of them are smoke-stained too. Only the nearer pillar is sure to show it, and might, partly. And Of course none of this material is made of cardboard or flesh, so it might hardly leave a mark you could see without a magnifying glass. It was looking light, sharp, and not too energetic (smaller blast than usual perhaps). Do you think that makes much sense? It does seem unusual, but hell, I don't even have that good a basis to say... --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:35, 29 September 2016 (UTC)
 * Unsure, but real Grads may destroy a light tank falling nearby, so if Grad or similar landed after boxes places, I'd expect more damage, and bigger irregularly shaped marks somewhere at least. There are Grad photos near walls, somewhere elsewhere, and as I recall marks are well visible. What we see on boxes seems to me to be from light-bodied munition, like a landmine, or an explosive charge with no enclosing sending dirt/small stones around, not a heavy-body fragmentation munition which will give heavier/bigger irregular marks. But this may well be some homemade/IED, and we may not know for sure what the hell that is. If important, maybe worthwhile to ask around as we got better munition experts, how that looks like to them. --Resup (talk) 09:37, 29 September 2016 (UTC)


 * Thought this might help visualize the shrapnel pattern on the boxes. I think this fits the picture pretty well. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:33, 29 September 2016 (UTC)



Firing Direction and Distance
I hope we get the orange cross-section shown above. It's approximate, of course, but is meant to be a cross section of the detonation fireball what seems to be the longest direction, which should be the one including its kinetic energy from traveil in that direction. An imaginary line along the roof would run almost perpendicular to the front wall (right-hand wall in the view), with a slight angle away from the camera as it runs further to the back (or to the left).

Taking this to a satellite view - First, I didn't carefully set where in the building this is, and it doesn't matter much. I put the red circle near the front edge in the middle. The approximate line of that orange cross-section is then extended back in gold (here two lines to show a range - and it should maybe be even wider).

What I don't know is how far back to extend it. Seems to me around a kilometer out is most likely. Looking it up, there are fields/orchards to the south for the first km, and this could be ok to fire from. But my eye is drawn to that road area (an old airstrip?). That seems kind of nice and open, accessible area to work, just about exactly 800 meters from the roof hole. But I might be biased - in my experience, 800m south is a good place to fire false-flag rockets from. This is clearly a different type, etc. so might be from any distance ... but I think only along a line in this basic range. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:03, 29 September 2016 (UTC)

Windows?
Can't see for certain broken windows or not (looks like not, kind of, near the ceiling hole). If indeed not, excludes large blast --Resup (talk) 10:34, 29 September 2016 (UTC)