Talk:Crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17

Subpages

 * List of MH17 airframe parts
 * Maps – (talk)
 * /Forensics
 * /BUK Tracking‎
 * /Debunked topics
 * /Cyber Berkut leak
 * /SBU Audio Evidence
 * /Archive‎

Considering Possibilities
Only so many theories have been seriously proposed for what happened to MH17. But it seems worthwhile to create a master list of basically all logical possibilities to consider -  what has and hasn't been proposed, by whom, why? Anyone can start or add to a sub-section below to conmment on that possibility. I inserted simple notes to many, hoping they're not too controversial - suggest or, hey, make a change as you see fit. I sign here for the initial list and notes only. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:58, 16 August 2014 (UTC) All possibilities: Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was brought down by (A Buk, B Jet, C Other) operated by (1 Russia, 2 Kiev, 3 Rebel) in an attack that was (a accidental, b intended, c intent + error)

A Buk/SA-11 (supported by some evidence, claimed by Kiev, presumed by Western powers)
 * A.1 Russian (Kiev's story - known stocks - border and logic issues)
 * A.1.a - accidental (intended legit/defensive downing - possible)
 * A1b - intended (not likely - Russia would stand little to gain and some to lose)
 * A1c - intent+error (SBU theory - intended to hit Aeroloft civilian flight, blame Kiev, invade - hit MH17 by mistake)


 * A.2 Kiev (known stocks, alleged movement at the time) (why: make seps/Russia look bad) (how: snuck in totally, approval snuck in too, or fired from outside rebel areas after all)
 * A2a - accidental (intended legit/defensive downing - not likely having snuck behind enemy lines to do it)
 * A2b - intended (most likely - going behind the lines suggests false flag intent)
 * A2c - intent+error (they aimed for the Aeroloft flight, etc. - possible)


 * A.3 Rebel (no known stocks, some evidence for, some against - rebel Buk is/was the Western presumption outside Kiev)
 * A3a - accidental (intended legit/defensive downing) (presumed by intelligent outsiders who blame them)
 * (variations: launcher supplied by Russia, seized by separatists, brought by defector - crew came with it, or not - etc.)
 * (variations: sliding scale of culpability from drunk and negligent operators with all blame, to blameless but fooled by false signals and such)
 * A3b - intended (not likely, soft implication from Kiev against the "terrorists")
 * A3c - intent + error (intent of a criminal kind still seems unlikely, so all error options probably under A3a.)

B Jet (supported by some evidence, promoted by many revisionists)
 * B.1 Russian (had to violate Kiev's airspace without being mentioned)
 * B1a - accidental (intended legit/defensive downing)
 * B1b - intended (not likely - Russia would stand little to gain and some to lose)
 * B1c - intent + error (triple unlikely - it's just a possibility slot)


 * B.2 Kiev (denied by Kiev)
 * B2a - accidental (intended legit/defensive downing) (of what?)
 * B2b - intended (implication of those proposing it - to make seps/Russia look bad)
 * B2c - intent + error (possible)


 * B.3 Rebel (no known jet holdings - no one proposes this)

C Other nothing seriously suggested. Lets not go digging for all outlying theories, but if one worth listing emerges, it can be option C and Other will be D, etc.

Finally cracked? The third side to blame is found Russian news Ukraine-youtube --Chingachgook (talk) 10:49, 20 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Interesting, thanks. He speaks of a "third force" that's perplexed both Kiev and the separatists, and makes it almost sound like they're working together to find out who it is. I'm reminded of Arsan Avakov's "Third Force" theory for the Maidan snipers. At first, left vague and intriguing, maybe CIA? No, he meant Russians. Here, he gives a direction, maybe. As Yandex renders it: "He also said that the fighting involved foreign mercenaries. "And the Ukrainian and Luhansk and Donetsk. Well, now, what to call it, and that Poland is at war with us, and Sweden?", - asked the General reserve." So far, Kiev has happily accepted these crimes and blamed Russians or the "terrorists." I do hope some minds are trying to break that link, however - from within and beneath, maybe they can make these psychos into the third - and crushed - force they should be. Otherwise, by adoption and encouragement and more, they're in family "B" - Kiev (and all points West). --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:30, 20 August 2014 (UTC)


 * General-Colonel Володимир Рубан is a descent UAF guy who works on prisoners exchange for a long time. Third force is here left unspecified, no mentioning of Russians, some (not too strong) hint it can be (non-Russian) foreigners. (Well, non-Russian foreigners were  alleged, well in the past, to be involved in the conflict)  --Chingachgook (talk) 12:17, 20 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Also, unknowns flag painters attacked in Moscow. (No injuries or deaths alleged).

Questions Raised
In the end of the day, we may not be able to pronounce a forensic conclusion, for the rest of the world to accept, as we may not have full information or all the needed expertise. Perhaps the best to hope for will be to RAISE (a rather short) list of main questions which we hope the official investigation will not ignore. I think it will be worthwhile to identify such questions (may be followed by voted answers or something of sort and some supporting arguments).

In my list, it would be questions establishing basic facts, like


 * impact coordinates
 * where blast(s) were coming from
 * confirmed evidence about launch and launchers (a.k.a " any high-resolution photos with known coordinates and times?")
 * navigation and control methods (a.k.a. " can it curl from forward right to back-left?")
 * land based or air based launch? (a.k.a "can satellite see well under the cloud?" )
 * anything to learn from radar data (publicized or otherwise)?
 * and any other relevant confirmed evidence to consider

Once all of that is in stone, will be good time for theories.

--Chingachgook (talk) 19:56, 11 August 2014 (UTC)

Question #1, since it's looking like a Buk fired from Snizneh ... what does that really prove as to who was running it? Nothing. That's why the State Dept. has to add on the Youtube and twitter evidence where it doesn't even matter if those are the real people"admitting" it was them. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:17, 11 August 2014 (UTC)


 * No confirmed evidence for a Buk, or from Snizhne, yet. Knowing who runs that would be perfect. --Chingachgook (talk) 00:08, 12 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Definitions of "confirmed" might differ, but I've been recommending people at least prepare for that coming true, in case the SU-25 thing doesn't pan out. There's a burnt field, somewhere quite near where that supposed launch contrail photo was placed to. And that, I just saw, supposedly had its ex/if data verified as July 17, 16:25:48. So it might be that figuring who runs that becomes totally crucial. So far, just the fact of what it was and where it was fired is supposed to be proof it was not the party that was equipped for this - physically and morally - and has benefited from it. Anyway, we're on it somewhat - who controls the Buks, whose got moved - what does "rebel-held" mean when someone's trucking in a anti-aircraft unit just after Kiev primed the locals with a bombing of civilians in Snizneh two days before? Stuff like that I think has extra value to develop. I should get to it... --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:29, 12 August 2014 (UTC)


 * If there is confirmed photo of launch, that would go under one of already listed items. With electronic evidence on social networks, I am not sufficiently knowledgeable, but presume it is too easy to edit those to fit any agenda, easier than to refute. Government releases, like satellite photos, is different, as they can't change stories overnight and have something to loose if proven fake. Faking hard physical evidence would be fairly impossible. It is good to know who is to blame of course. (But most people would already have their own intuitive answer,which is not likely to change, so how exactly we are going to focus on such an issue?  --For myself, the best outcome will be for truth to come out, wherever that may lead).

--Chingachgook (talk) 19:28, 12 August 2014 (UTC)

Witness Accounts

 * BBC Russian video since pulled? Did they really even produce this? The locals all say there was a fughter jet that turned and left a different way. I put it here until I transcribe the subtitles. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:53, 28 July 2014 (UTC)
 * Eyewitness #1: There were two explosions in the air. And this is how it broke apart. And [the fragments] blew apart like this, to the sides. And when …


 * Eyewitness #2: … And there was another aircraft, a military one, beside it. Everybody saw it.


 * Eyewitness #1: Yes, yes. It was flying under it, because it could be seen. It was proceeding underneath, below the civilian one.


 * Eyewitness #3: There were sounds of an explosion. But they were in the sky. They came from the sky. Then this plane made a sharp turn-around like this. It changed its trajectory and headed in that direction [indicating the direction with her hands].

(that was easy - Gleb already did it) At that page is the video of the lady fighter in Slovyansk (so sad) a month before - June 18 - relating how the air force there recently had a jet hiding behind a civilian plane as it bombed the city. She thought it was to provoke a shootdown of the airliner and get the separatists branded as terrorists. This both offers a precedent for a real July 17 possibility, and a precedent for some folks to think that's what they saw or should say they saw. It will come down to what lines up. Most of this is vague, but witness 3 seems fairly astute and describes a turn I believe Russian radar also described. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:25, 29 July 2014 (UTC)


 * Reuters: “From my balcony I saw a plane begin to descend from a great height and then heard two explosion," said one separatist from nearby Krasnyi Luch who gave his name only as Sergei. He denied the rebels had shot the plane down. "This could happen only if it was a fighter jet or a surface-to-air missile (that shot it down)," he said, noting that the rebels did not have weapons capable of shooting down a plane at such a height."
 * Note, on seeing the video, this seems to be post-shoot-down. He probably saw it nose-diving as it "descended." Something booms as it falls (was it twice? or an echo?) - I suspect it's one of the wing fuel tanks., since one of the wings is fully on fire. This accounts adds nothing but a description of what we can see for ourselves already, and his assessment is opinion - a bomb on board could have done it for all he knows. --Caustic Logic (talk)


 * Daily Mail witness accounts emerge but they only share one, at the bottom of a huge pile of large photos and fat fingers pointing lazily.
 * A local farmer said: ‘I was herding my cows and heard a buzzing noise. ‘I lay on the ground and thinking only that it would not hit me and my cows. Then I looked and saw that something turns sharply and two big wings were flying. Bang. And something explodes. It came from eastern side, from the side of Sokholikha mountain.’ 

What Can Forensics Prove?

 * ''Investigation moved to /Forensics

We're now getting organized, with List of MH17 airframe parts - a picture of how the plane was impacted will emerge. The BUK alleged (Wikipedia) has radar guided missiles that can track, turn, change altitude, etc. So I conclude the damage won't tell us if the missile was air-to-air or from the surface, or what direction it was fired from. It's still worth knowing, of course, but ... could use some discussion maybe on what we can/can't/should be aiming for here. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:40, 28 July 2014 (UTC)


 * The damage will tell us it was an air-to-air missile with rod warhead fired from the front, that exploded when its proximity fuse passed the cockpit window. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:04, 28 July 2014 (UTC)

Fighter Jet?
This point is disputed, and thus not proven to everyone's satisfaction. But it's clearly a big question: was there, or was there not, a fighter jet trailing MH-17 before its shooting down? Russia says yes and has produced radar data they say supports that. Kiev says no, and may have supplied radar evidence (did they?) Some locals report seeing it, but no one believes "subhuman" "terrorists..."

Whether or not the jet brought down the airliner is another story, but obviously related.

(Russia's details for - forthcoming)

counter-arguments: Interpreter Mag offers what it claims are serious questions about Russia's fighter jet claims. They don't start out dismissing that there was a radar return the Russians followed, but question - reasonably - if it was really a jet. They latch onto the translation "hover" describing what the "jet" did for four minutes after, and note "to “hover” requires a helicopter," and "the fastest helicopter in the Ukrainian arsenal" is too slow to trail MH17, so ... in case he meant circle (obviously) the article suggests that it's all but impossible for a fighter to circle and loiter in that small area, so probably that also is a clumsy lie, which by the end they're forced to call "Moscow's Magical Mystery Jets." --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:34, 31 July 2014 (UTC)
 * Oh, and James Miller added "A MAJOR problem with Russia's latest claim, that a Ukrainian Su-25 was tailing MH17. According to the plane's own manufacturer, who has incentive to inflate the SU-25's performance numbers, that aircraft can't even fly high enough to be 3 kilometers away as Russia claims﻿." My response to that is ... sorry what? --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:52, 31 July 2014 (UTC)
 * On that point, I understand the SU-25 is a ground attack craft, that normally operates under 25,000 feet, while MH17 was at 33,000. Still, it might be able to go higher, and could still be 305 km away plus or including 8,000 feet or whatever. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:15, 7 August 2014 (UTC)

Air-to-air missile?

 * Вот и первые признаки БЧ. Сбивал не Бук-М1 (Here are the first signs of warheads. Not hit by Buk-M1)

This is disproved. It's confirmed a Grad Missile was used. GRAD Missile downed aircraft :-) --Charles Wood (talk) 10:00, 20 July 2014 (UTC)

Pilot confesses? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 00:00, 29 July 2014 (UTC)
 * Ukrainischer Pilot gibt Abschuss von MH17 zu
 * I started out skeptical, checked, and didn't see where they explain just what he said, to whom, etc. Our readers will need more alleged details. I'm still skeptical, obviously. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:58, 1 August 2014 (UTC)
 * It's satire. Says so trilangually in bold red right there at the top. Original is here on a quite funny satire site. It's full of valid information but the premise of the piece is to show how propaganda would react and integrate such a confession into their narrative. --CE (talk) 12:37, 1 August 2014 (UTC)

"Carlos"
Okay, what the heck? This has been called a hoax (as noted even at the first link) but I'm not so sure. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:03, 4 August 2014 (UTC) 10:21 – 17 de jul. de 2014 Autoridades de kiev, intentan hacer que pueda parecer un ataque de los pro-rusos “Kiev Authorities, trying to make it look like an attack by pro-Russians”
 * http://www.globalresearch.ca/spanish-air-controller-kiev-borispol-airport-ukraine-military-shot-down-boeing-mh17/5391888

10:24 – 17 de jul. de 2014 Ojo! Que puede ser un derribo B777 Malaysia Airlines en ukraine, 280 pasajeros “warning! It can be a downing, Malaysia Airlines B777 in ukraine, 280 passengers”

10:25 – 17 de jul. de 2014 Cuidado! Kiev tiene lo que buscaba “Warning! Kiev have what they wanted”

10:25 – 17 de jul. de 2014 Vuelven a tomar la torre de control en Kiev “[Miitary] has taken control of ATC in Kiev”

10:27 – 17 de jul. de 2014 El avión B777 de Malaysia Airlines desapareció del radar, no hubo comunicación de ninguna anomalia, confirmado “The Malaysia Airlines B777 plane disappeared from the radar, there was no communication of any anomaly, confirmed”


 * What really happened to MH17? Russia's media have the answer says the Christian Science Monitor,laughingly, on July 22. On "Carlos," they say:
 * 2. The mysterious Spanish airport controller source. A mysterious Twitter account, @spainbuca, purporting to be a Spanish air traffic controller at Kiev's international airport named Carlos tweeted out that two Ukrainian fighter jets had shadowed the Malaysian airliner and that Kiev was behind its downing. In May, the Spanish-language channel of Kremlin mouthpiece RT interviewed Carlos and blurred out his face because he claimed he was in danger for criticizing the Ukrainian government.
 * However, the Spanish Embassy in Kiev has no record of Carlos, reports Fox News Latino. “We have no knowledge of ‘Carlos’ having been in Ukraine. There is no record of his passing through the Consulate, and no one from the (relatively small) Spanish colony knows him,” it said. Carlos’s Twitter account no longer exists.

Questions:
 * 1) What was he saying in May that was newsworthy? May 8, Espanol - says he's in Madrid at the time Does he seem shady like a possible disinfo agent?
 * 2) Was he back in Ukraine still (allegedly) working ATC on July 17, or is his knowledge supposed to be from the community?
 * 3) Does he claim direct knowledge the fighters brought down the plane, or just speculate based on their presence?
 * 4) Does his account deletion similarity to the Graham W. Phillips case mean anything? Or is this just a fakester who called it quits as soon as questions arose?
 * 5) How does the embassy know if they do or don't have a record unless they know just who he is? Isn't he supposed to have been anonymous up 'til now? (deduced from Spanish + ATC? = zero? That could work)
 * 6) Has anyone anywhere heard from him since? --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:03, 4 August 2014 (UTC)

Escorts?

 * http://theaviationist.com/2014/07/21/su-27s-escorted-mh17/
 * Iranian defense expert Babak Taghvaee believes the mistake was caused by the fact the Malaysian Boeing 777 was escorted over eastern Ukraine. Taghvaee is always very well informed and an extremely reliable source. Therefore, after he provided some details about this activity of the Ukrainian Air Force on ACIG forum thread about the war in Ukraine, we contacted him for some more insight. Here’s what he wrote to us.
 * “When the Crimea crisis began, the Ukrainian Air Force air command center quickly forward deployed six Su-27s to the Kulbakino AB. Since beginning of the crisis and the Russia intervention, the 831st TAB has the important task to provide air defense as well as security of whole country. Six fully armed Flankers have always been in the sky especially when the other Ukrainian Air Force airplanes such as transporters and attackers like Fulcrums and Rooks were in the East of Ukraine,” explains Taghvaee.
 * “But when the Su-25M1 was shot down by the Russia Air Force 6969th AB’s MiG-29 on Jul. 16, the situation and condition became more critical than previous days and more Su-27 sorties were conducted to confront Russian MiG-29s. I believe those two Su-27s were not in sky just for standard practice in that day [Jul. 17], I believe they were involved in HAVCAP (High  Asset Value Combat Air Patrol) mission sortie in that day.”

Hm - an escort patrol starting just that day? Did Russians even shoot down the jet forcing that decision right then? High value asset it was, once it was shot down and blamed on Russia. This could use some further searching, but one Q is why Carlos (or his sources) would be so alarmed at the fighter jets if they were known "escorts." And also, why would Kiev decide on this and then deny it? That looks bad. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:12, 4 August 2014 (UTC)

Did the Jet(s) Down MH17?
I don't think so, but it's possible. I hear now the evidence is conclusive, it's proven and all debate should cease. An OSCE expert said x was "like" y. OMG x is same thing as y proved!

Petri, I see in comments here your working theory:
 * MH17 was brought down by a frontal attack by a fighter jet. The jet fired a "machine gun" or autocannon through the left side windshield right at the captain. The direction of fire was from slightly to the left and slightly above. The bullets left perfectly round holes of about 20 mm diameter in the upper frame of the windshield. Further down the left side the holes became elongated and irregular, some with the appearance of exit holes. The smaller irregular holes on the side are most likely the result of fragmentation rounds mixed in with armor piercing bullets. Some of these may have bounced off the side and exploaded outside.

Not to be too harsh, but I just want to lay out all my questions, in the sort of aggressive way they just tend to run at such times. 1) 20 mm rounds - others have specified a SU-25 with 30 mm cannon as most likely. What are you proposing? A different craft, I guess? Fair enough - SU-25 doesn't seem to be proven, just a good guess. 2) Is there any radar support for a frontal attack from the E-SE (frontal)? The mentioned jet was trailing 3 or more km behind (W-NW) 3) altitude - that was a problem for SU-25, made to work below 25,000 feet while MH17 was at 33, and was hit slightly from above. But you're thinking something else - might well answer that automatically 4) why can't warhead shrapnel of about 20 mm explain this? Or do we know the SA-11 can only have a different size? Because round machine-gun-like holes seems to be just what they normally do. 5) What is up with the Buk launcher moved in that direction, parked right on the flightpath, and apparently having fired a missile towards the jet that would impact it just about head-on like this theorized jet attack? Did they set that up to create the appearance, while using a fighter instead to mimic it? I'd ask where did the missile go, but I guess you could argue the field was fake burnt, the tracks just made, and the contrail photo is from another day or something, 6) Is the jet attack theory really the best explanation for what we see or just the one that's overly tempting because it could smoking-gun pin it on Kiev? --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:15, 7 August 2014 (UTC)

Slightly informed comment on air defences
See vineyardsaker. Certainly biased, but internally reasonably consistent --Charles Wood (talk) 02:12, 19 July 2014 (UTC)

I'll just add various rumours / propaganda I've heard so far.

- US Satellites tracked the missile

- Russia did it (at least morally)

- Ukraine did it (for continuing the battle)

- The plane was deliberately diverted to the location it was shot down

- There was a storm over Crimea causing the diversion

- add your rumour here

What I haven't heard yet is the terrorist bomb theory. If the plan had crashed in say Poland that would have been the only game in town. --Charles Wood (talk) 02:12, 19 July 2014 (UTC)

Tin Foil (Hat) theory of Military Chaff falling in crash video
Video shows man explaing that long streamers in crash video are actually military chaff from a Ukranian fighter shadowing MH17

Military Chaff Theory

Simple debunk. The stuff must have been a metre or more wide and hundreds of metres long to be visible at that range. No such military chaff system has that sizing, least of all one that can be carried by a fighter jet.

The only foil in this video is on the guy's head.

--Charles Wood (talk) 00:09, 20 July 2014 (UTC)


 * I don't even know what "military chaff" is, but I saw someone mention the streamers, connected to the plane having a cargo including textiles. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:19, 20 July 2014 (UTC)


 * No, It seems to me the chaff is falling in the foreground while the smoke cloud is kilometers away. A lucky shot just got them both in the same picture. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 22:23, 20 July 2014 (UTC)

A Rebel-Held Area
The presumption behind blaming separatists at all is that the blamed surface-to-air missile was fired from an area under control of separatist forces. But most people seem to just presume the entire eastern area (past what line, who knows?) is all rebel turf, with no Ukrainian military inroads anywhere. That's part of why it's taken as so obvious, even though no one's sure just where the firing was from. The Russian military presentation took BUK itself as meaning Ukrainian military. They claim satellite images of them in Kien-run army bases as close as 5 km from Donetsk, moved on the 17th to a site closer to the shoot-down area, then moved away again. It seems the "just where" question is far more important than most presume (that is, if there was a ground launch that even mattered, as I suspect) Does anyone have a good analysis of the general control-accessibility situation on that day? Some nerd might have made a map that's reliable? --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:24, 30 July 2014 (UTC)
 * For the NATO narrative on the Novorossiyan Buk you can look at the Ukraine@war. He will you the exact location in Snizhne (the town that was bombed two days before, with 13 civilians killed inside their apartment block). I am no longer interested. All that interest me is the technical aspects of the of the crash investigation. What hit the MH17 where and when.
 * P.S. – There is supposedly a video somewhere of a Buk fired. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 12:46, 30 July 2014 (UTC)
 * WSJ has a crappy map: How MH17 Came Apart Over Ukraine – Fails to show any of what the title claims. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 12:53, 30 July 2014 (UTC)

The Defector Theory

 * U.S. Prepares to Blame MH17 Shoot Down on Ukrainian Army “Defector” Paul Joseph Watson, July 23
 * In an attempt to explain away the existence of evidence which shows Ukrainian troops firing the missile that brought down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, Washington may be preparing to fix the intelligence by pinning the blame on a “defector” in order to absolve Kiev.
 * As we reported on Monday, award winning former AP and Newsweek reporter Robert Parry was told by an intelligence source that the U.S. is in possession of images which show men dressed in Ukrainian Army uniforms operating the Buk missile system which shot down MH17. If proven accurate, such information would completely eviscerate Washington and Kiev’s already shaky narrative that Russian-backed separatist rebels were responsible for the attack.
 * The U.S. State Department now appears to be shifting the emphasis of its narrative to discount the possibility that Kiev itself was responsible for shooting down MH17. As the L.A. Times reported yesterday, “U.S. officials said it was possible the SA-11 [anti-aircraft missile] was launched by a defector from the Ukrainian military who was trained to use similar missile systems.” Blaming the incident on a “defector” would allow the U.S. to explain why the culprit was wearing a Ukrainian Army uniform when he shot down the airliner.

Sounds intriguing, and Robert Parry is usually pretty reliable.Seems worth a section here to see how it pans out. Skipping the prior Infowars article, This from July 20 seems to be the original explanation by Parry at Consortium News. I'm not encouraged by the details - the images aren't video or photo, but satellite. Parry mentions the limits of what satellites can see, but rightly points out they could see any Buk system component. Russia's satellites saw the ones run by Kiev's pro-America junta, first at their normal base, then somewhere else on July 17. What you can't as likely see is smaller details like the exact pattern on a person's shirt, or what the label on a bottle says, if even its shape. But he says:
 * What I’ve been told by one source, who has provided accurate information on similar matters in the past, is that U.S. intelligence agencies do have detailed satellite images of the likely missile battery that launched the fateful missile, but the battery appears to have been under the control of Ukrainian government troops dressed in what look like Ukrainian uniforms.
 * The source said CIA analysts were still not ruling out the possibility that the troops were actually eastern Ukrainian rebels in similar uniforms but the initial assessment was that the troops were Ukrainian soldiers. There also was the suggestion that the soldiers involved were undisciplined and possibly drunk, since the imagery showed what looked like beer bottles scattered around the site, the source said.

Ooh, bad move when, as John Kerry, knows, it's the separatists that are the drunken ones in the area. As for where the image was taken, the evidence suggests it was a separatist-policed one. It probably was non-defected Kiev soldiers running it, but false claims to that effect make that possible truth harder to see, in the end. I think Parry's source stopped being credible prior to this latest. Anyone else more inclined to accept this evidence? --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:16, 5 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Everyone is trash talking everyone else. I'm not believing any of it. It was partly cloudy that day and you'd have to be very lucky to have a satellite pass overhead just when a BUK gets launched. It is much more likely that whatever the US has it got from a spy plane, such as the RC-135 they have operating in the area.(On July 18 some Russian MIGs approached it and it had to fly off over Sweden without permission). https://medium.com/war-is-boring/u-s-spy-plane-reportedly-violated-swedish-air-space-to-escape-russian-fighters-424d05e11bd5 Sorry can't find it now, but another story said land radar had locked onto them, which is why they left in such a hurry. KatKan (talk) 03:17, 14 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Russian press conference: "As far as we know, there was indeed a US satellite flying over southeastern Ukraine on July 17 from 17:06 to 17:21 Moscow time." That will be 16.06 to 16.21 local. _If true_, this is likely to show at least part of the trajectory. No need for satellite's beer bottle photos. -- Chingachgook (talk) 03:44, 14 August 2014 (UTC)


 * As I recall, somewhere on the news there was a claim that there is no US radar data (too far) --Chingachgook (talk) 03:55, 14 August 2014 (UTC)


 * US: “We saw the take-off. We saw the trajectory, we saw the hit. We saw this aeroplane disappear from the radar screens. So there is really no mystery about where it came from and where these weapons have come from."  (Hope not on a fake photo)?  --Chingachgook (talk) 05:00, 14 August 2014 (UTC)


 * The photo that popped up for me showed lots of flowers and photos of Diana, Princess of Wales, i.e from 1997. So in true The Australian tradition a fake. FYI The Australian is one of the least accurate papers in Australia and runs a very heavy anti-Russian and pro-Israel line. --Charles Wood (talk) 05:06, 14 August 2014 (UTC)

Andriy Parubiy again?
Pepe Escobar names Andriy Parubiy as a possible suspect.
 * It was Putin’s missile! – RT, July 19, 2014
 * ''Carlos’s assessment: the missile was fired by the Ukraine military under orders of the Ministry of Interior - NOT the Ministry of Defense. Security matters at the Ministry of the Interior happen to be under Andrey Paruby, who was closely working alongside US neo-cons and Banderastan neo-Nazis on Maidan.

-- Petri Krohn (talk) 02:16, 21 July 2014 (UTC)
 * From what I've read on the guy, he's likely enough to be behind this that, really, all Ukraine's airspace should be closed until he's no longer on the loose. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:24, 30 July 2014 (UTC)

Robert Parry introduces Parubiiy in his July 20 article, and mentions:
 * It was this same Parubiy whom the Post writers turned to seeking more information condemning the eastern Ukrainian rebels and the Russians regarding the Malaysia Airlines catastrophe. Parubiy accused the rebels in the vicinity of the crash site of destroying evidence and conducting a cover-up, another theme that resonated through the MSM.
 * Without bothering to inform readers of Parubiy’s unsavory neo-Nazi background, the Post quoted him as a reliable witness declaring: “It will be hard to conduct a full investigation with some of the objects being taken away, but we will do our best.” --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:16, 5 August 2014 (UTC)

FTR, Andriy Parubiy resigned yesterday. Same day the following came out. --CE (talk) 11:33, 8 August 2014 (UTC)

Valentyn Nalyvaichenko
On August 7, SBU head Valentyn Nalyvaichenko introduced a new narrative (release on SBU website / archived snapshot) apparently contradicting their released audio tapes that early on helped form the narrative of an accidental shoot-down of MH17 by "rebels" who thought it was a military plane. Now the story goes that the Russians planned to shoot down an Aeroflot plane in a false flag operation blaming it on Ukraine, to have a pretext for invasion. But the "Russian mercenaries" moved their Buk to a different location than planned and mistook MH17 for the Aeroflot machine with their own people they wanted to kill. What exactly they prepared to blame it on Ukraine (maybe Ukrainian uniforms or something?), or why a plane full of AIDS researchers and Dutch children couldn't be used as a pretext (Russian people don't care about Dutch children?), is not explained. Nalyvaichenko has been implicated by his predecessor in the sniper killings on Maidan, together with Andriy Parubiy.--CE (talk) 11:33, 8 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Human Rights Investigations, Aug. 7 - In Ukraine, the lunatics have taken over the asylum This relates a SBU statement of earlier in the day outlining their latest theory. As said before, Russians did it, with a system they brought in and took right back with them. Most people have presumed there's no motive for Russia to shoot down an airliner into the separatist's area on their behalf, and it must have been an accident. The SBU's thinkers decided it was intentional, but with an accidental part too. They meant to shoot down a Russian airliner, but set themselves up in the wrong town, so they hit MH17 instead. The original plan was to use dead Russians blamed on Kiev as a reason to invade Ukraine, but when it was other people dead, he said never mind. Awesome theory, no? --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:44, 8 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Beat you to it, put it here where it belongs... bizarre. Interesting that Parubiy resigned (see above the subheadline) the same day this came out, isn't it?--CE (talk) 11:55, 8 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Awesome, tag-teamed it with similar technique. Parubiy, huh! That gave zero reason, didn't it? It's not 'to spend more time with my family.' No, he notes on the way out, he still belongs at the "forefrongfront." --Caustic Logic (talk)
 * FTR RT says "On Monday, reports appeared in Ukrainian media about Parubiy’s resignation. The Local Zn.ua website, citing its source, said that the security chief is due to resign due to diverging opinions with the country’s president. The media stated that Parubiy decided to resign after he was ordered to declare another ceasefire in Kiev’s military operation in the southeast of the country, but he refused to do so." --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:22, 9 August 2014 (UTC)
 * This article announces an investigation into the "Southern Cauldron" disaster and calls Parubiy the "main author" of the plan that led to it. Maybe that's the reason. --CE (talk) 16:47, 10 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Ukraine@War views the theory favorably --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:34, 9 August 2014 (UTC)
 * And not impressed with one de-bunk effort but rather more convinced!


 * Yeah, we got it the first time already. The guy is a knucklehead. --CE (talk) 12:49, 12 August 2014 (UTC)

Cyber Berkut leak

 * Kolomoyskiy assistant’s Facebook account hacked - the Boeing downed by junta!

SBU wiretap video

 * ''Restored from /Debunked topics as the issue has again become relevant -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:38, 11 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Щодо збитого літака (оновлено) – Ukrainian SBU
 * Ukraine Releases YouTube Clip "Proving" Rebels Shot Down Malaysian Flight MH-17
 * Sees strange July 16 timestamps on video, but as we know, YouTube stamps all videos 24 hours too early. One must use metadata interface to access upload time. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 13:14, 18 July 2014 (UTC)

The video of audio recordings was very early shown to be a hoax, i.e. a mixture of recordings of unrelated topics: some genuine amazement at the crash of MH17 and some possible genuine discussion about earlier shoot downs.

The timestamp issue was most likely just a misreading of YouTube data, but it now quite unexpectedly pops up again. Seems that someone important believed in the false timestamp. Cyberberkut has has released some discussion involving Kolomoiskiy's assistant.

On RT Russian: Hackers broke into the conversation approximate Kolomoiskiy about Boeing crash in Ukraine
 * From the correspondence between Kolomoisky's deputy Svyatoslav Oleynik and Anatoly Gritsenko, leader of "Citizenship" party.
 * ''Gritsenko: Slava! What the hell?! What have you bitches done? How could you upload that video the day before the operation???!!! Do you understand that the «Russists» have already given it for the expert review and requested Youtube for the date of its very first upload???
 * ''Oleinik: Anatoly Stepanovich, I'll call you now! I went out and the phone was left in the office, on the Internet with the tablet. I have now gathering a couple minutes.
 * -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:59, 11 August 2014 (UTC)


 * The time issue and maybe other seed more consideration. First time. Last year, over Ghouta, it was the California time-zone 11-hour discrepancy. This time, the dates are fine. Now, this GMorder (cited by TDurden) found the Russian one, NwtxBA1m9x8, was created Jul 16 at 19:10:24. I'm not sure what method, but I used the one recommended by Petri here (and thanks for that). I get for that video: published: 2014-07-17 T19:08:57.000Z updated: 2014-08-12 T21:24:12.000Z. The English one: 2014-07-17T20:33:16.000Z. updated: 2014-08-12T14:37:41.000Z What can that mean, why the different results, which is proven? My clock computer sometimes has issues, but it shouldn't effect that. It might effect what it says here for creation date on my downloaded copy of the English one: July 23, modified date. no help anyway. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:12, 12 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Note: the Ghouta videos had the issue by being early morning - anything after 11 AM came out with the right date. It wouldn't apply to MH17, an afternoon event (and one time zone closer to California's time) --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:27, 13 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Dunno about the time, but as to the "mixture of recordings of unrelated topics" Petri mentioned, here's a video claiming to prove audio fakery. I didn't fire up the audio editor to check this out, maybe I should. But in this case I go from large to small, and the fact that those "leaks" haven't been mentioned much even by Kerry's harpies tells me enough. Just like the fact that no pressure is put on the Putschists to release the ATC recordings, and the black box stuff is the opposite of forthcoming, and no satellite material or anything with a stamp put on it by an American more "credible" than Marie Harf has been forthcoming tells me with much greater certainty than some field could burn that the real story doesn't fit the "Western" desired narrative. --CE (talk) 23:46, 12 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Claims of fakery - I'll check that out. Worth considering what's said and how logical it is, etc. But the hard debunk I think failed, and it seems to be a method issue. This piece at Metabunk says GMorder used the Russian service RGhost.net, which he did, and which the author says he tested. Two videos of his own made - of the time and date, from a government website - on July 21, one uploaded to/downloaded back from Youtube, the other left raw (one he had set for 2015 as well). He says he uploaded both to RGhost and the site told him in no uncertain terms he made those videos a day earlier than he did, July 20 this year and next. Between Youtube and our method there's no day shaved off. I didn't test it myself but it might be RGhost in this regard is a universal "it was a day too early!" converter for debunks that are a little too easy.--Caustic Logic (talk) 10:44, 13 August 2014 (UTC)

A False-Flag Defector Theory
Here's one way the facts might wind up going: an SA-11 was fired from outside Snizneh, as alleged, and that's what killed MH17. The Buk launcher was even welcomed in by local commanders, heard saying so in audio communications that could prove true (or not), was sent to the spot by them, and then disavowed in embarrassment. And also the launcher came from Kiev's arsenal, the shootdown was not a mistake, and the crime carried out by pro-Kiev false-flaggers in the proud Euromaidan tradition. Here's how that could all be so:

Some secret Right-winger in the army playing a disgusted defector makes contact with local rebels on July 15. He heard about the apartment bombing that day in Snizneh, and about the junta's plans for another run at the same place two days later. But, he said, he could get access to a launcher at the base north of Donetsk, a disloyal guard who'd take a bribe (small, covered) plus even a couple local defectors trained to run it, and even a truck from his part time job - the boss wouldn't notice it missing, he's such a clueless junta-supporter... Yeah, he could have it all mobile, drive it himself, make all the contacts, have their guys check it out, it works! It'll shoot down anything. They can get it put in place and wait. In this version, the "SBU wiretap" audio was maybe their defector's own phone - he was undercover the whole time, "wearing a wire" - the launcher was a trojan horse, and its crew were evil and knew just what they where they were and just what they were doing.

On the rebel end, having no clue there will be a mass murder ensuing, and seeing nothing criminal in preventing a second junta air force atrocity, happily waved the thing in. They were supposed to meet someone in Snizneh, but drove off mysteriously. Then MH17 came down and, in dread and shock, the rebels decided to dis-acknowledge the whole deal, and no one's simply come clean about it yet. But the "defector" meme coming out might be spurred by its partial truth, along lines kind of like this, and not from some satellite photos. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:10, 15 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Hey CL, apart from your vivid imagination, do you have even just a whisper to back this up? And if we're speculating, how would you like to forget Snizneh and look at Chornukhyne as the launch site? At the time was on almost no man's land, under Don Cossack Control. KatKan (talk) 14:42, 15 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Do I have evidence? Yes. There are these pieces we're considering, supposed to point that way, that might or might not. This theory here is sort of a "worst case scenario" where all those come out true, or an idea for those who believe all those clues, to show how alternate explanations still exist even then. Im am fairly convinced of the core parts, much less on the calls, but this is more a though exercise than "my theory," although it's not far from my working theory and become it if the audio is genuine after all. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:34, 15 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Yeah, similar to KatKan question is bugging me as well . Why not to look, let's say, perhaps somewhere else? (hopefully without creating sudden burst of fighting or urgent land management work just right exactly there, if possible )? --Chingachgook (talk) 14:56, 15 August 2014 (UTC)
 * yeah, early intercepted call said ""These are Chernukhin folks who shot down the plane. From the Chernukhin check point. Those Cossacks who are based in Chernukhino." and nobody's ever looked there. It is same distance as Snizneh and  90 degrees to the flight path so an easy shot. KatKan (talk) 15:24, 15 August 2014 (UTC)


 * I certainly would not know why a reputable news-maker would pay travel expenses going to Snezhny but not this other well-flagged place nearby. The only new comment I have to make here is that this is a big expensive truck, not a flag costing one grivna/ruble {nor is it a can of some chemicals).  It is your best air defense, and there aren't many. So it is either off front line or it is there, somewhere, for a real strong reason.  --Chingachgook (talk) 19:23, 15 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Okay, the other town being named is one clue for another site, and no one looking could be why there's nothing else. I'm not sure how Chernukin connects - If the burned spot is up there, or there's another one... maybe the defector made his contact with those guys, and so his little team was called part of theirs - Miner brought them. As for why the other area, it was indicated and they say it had burn marks at the end (can't be checked and ruled in or out), so they went and it appears to have been smart. In the other direction, a mention the responsible people are from there, not even that they fired from there. But at least it's not pulled out of thin air. If there becomes more to support it, I'll consider more. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:34, 15 August 2014 (UTC)


 * We may want to put the audio story in order separately, someplace, if it was not done. I was following it initially, but now references are hard to find.


 * Agreed. This happens here sometimes. Hoping it helps, I made a page for that subject and moved comments from both of you guys over there. Hope I didn't mess anything up in the process - please review. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:27, 16 August 2014 (UTC)
 * You did indeed delete a whole bunch of stuff instead of "moving" it. Restored here. --CE (talk) 11:42, 16 August 2014 (UTC)


 * As I recall (but do not have links saved), this is Bes recordings, glued together from genuine pieces. (I believe Bes said pieces are genuine early on himself) The first piece, mentioning Enakievo, is about a different earlier episode--as he himself responded. His response about second piece, mentioning Cossacks, was much more evasive, something like 'if every block post has a Buk, than I'll be in Kiev'. But it is clear that at the time of event, he had reason to believe that  something was going on over there. That does not say this happened as he thought, Cossacks may be shooting pistols not Buks or whatever; but it may looked like something is launched from there, or whatever the case might be. This does suggest some notable event at that location. I do not see genuine evidence pointing to the current official version; it is more consistent with somebody trying to put a false flag there so that all attention of social networkers go that way. Chasing this flag further is a waste of time in my opinion, and is unlikely to produce anything new which is not known already.  Looking the other way, even pointing out there is SOME other way, might. (Actually, it looks like attempts were made to place SEVERAL false flags, and than whatever was picked up, was supported by some further noise).    --Chingachgook (talk) 23:28, 15 August 2014 (UTC)


 * (Coincidently) just above I posted an alleged proof of audio fakery of some SBU-released audio, likely from the first batch. As I said, I didn't look into it really closely. Maybe worth doing so. Claim is that it was cut together from several audio tapes. --CE (talk) 23:57, 15 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Bes in the audio (perhaps glued from pieces) does say Cossacks from Chernukhino block post shot the plane down, those Cossacks _standing_ at Cherknukhino. Why everybody is looking the other way just beats me --Chingachgook (talk) 00:09, 16 August 2014 (UTC)


 * This brief piece on Chernukhino Cossacks is disconnected from the first piece (about Miner, apparently another rebel) and from discussion of discovering that it was a passenger plane and of the bodies. Chernukhino piece is timed at 16.33 on the crash day. First piece (Miner) is timed earlier, actually,  at  16:40, and talks about a different location (really bad gluing skill here; this miner thing is most likely from another day, and I recall that was claimed in discussions which followed. )  Gluing is beyond any doubt; but individual pieces sound genuine for my ears.  So he does not actually say it was his Cossacks or what they shot was a passenger plane; just that (some) Cossacks standing at Chernukhino shot (some ) plane, and than it cuts off;  rebel blame is rather what this  gluing order is trying to convey on us.  I would certainly check this out.  --Chingachgook (talk) 01:56, 16 August 2014 (UTC)


 * I've gone back to early things to refresh my memory. And the whole tone of voice was different then. Today it is all propaganda and fantastic stories from everyone.The first 2 days everyone sounded genuine, spoke unthinking,not for effect. So I am thinking, things said early are more likely true. Yes that video with the telephone calls was from 3 separate calls, and at least one maybe not from July 17. The one about Yenaklevo I think is another day. KatKan (talk) 00:37, 16 August 2014 (UTC)

Debunked topics

 * ''Moved to /Debunked topics

Warhead damage

 * ''Moved to /Forensics

Radar Evidence

 * ''Moved to /Map

Cockpit Voice Recorder
Thanks for a start, Charles, will review. I was watching for that, gathering a bit of background on the CVR angle. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:56, 4 August 2014 (UTC)
 * July 23: good condition http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/malaysian-airlines-flight-mh17-cockpit-voice-recorder-in-good-condition-1.2715671
 * The cockpit voice recorder of the Malaysian airliner downed over Ukraine is in good condition, the UN civil aviation body said on Wednesday,
 * "The cockpit voice recorder is in good condition ... the digital flight data recorder is still under review," ICAO said in a statement.


 * July 23, downloaded: http://www.eturbonews.com/48306/mh-17-cockpit-voice-recorder-data-downloaded
 * On Tuesday 22 July 2014 at 22:00 inKiev, Ukraine, the flight data and cockpit voice recorders (the 'black boxes') from the Malaysian Airlines flight 17 were taken into custody by the Dutch ambassador and a team of investigators led by the Dutch Safety Board. The Dutch Safety Board requested that the Air Accident Investigation Branch of theUnited Kingdom (AAIB) perform the data download from both the recorders. The recorders were transported to the AAIB's laboratory at Farnborough, arriving 23rd July in the early morning.

AAIB Analysis
Analysis of the CVR from here on should be by the UK Air Accidents Investigation Branch. We shall see. For the record, they came out far less shady in the Lockerbie investigation 25 years ago than the now-fazed out RARDE and its hacks Hayes and Feraday, or the FBI's stumblebum "Tom" Thurman (see The Political Scientists of Lockerbie. I might have been overly fair - Dr. Morag Kerr could tell you in more detail some of the problems with even the AAIB's work there setting the explosion center. But this was 25 years ago, They're only looking at the flight data this time, not the wreckage. We're on the verge of world war, with this the latest information front. They're in London. They'll tell us the truth only if it fits okay with their narrative.  --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:56, 4 August 2014 (UTC)
 * The crash investigation of Lockerbie was fine. It was the criminal investigation that was messed up. They didn't do that, FBI got involved, same as in TWA800. Some facts seem to depend a fair bit on who is looking at them. KatKan (talk) 03:30, 14 August 2014 (UTC)

New Straits Times - CVR
THE preliminary analysis of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17’s cockpit voice recorder (CVR) revealed “nothing out of the ordinary”.

A source close to the international investigation told the New Sunday Times that the CVR downloaded by the United Kingdom’s Air Accidents Investigation Branch had picked up the communications between the Malaysia Airlines’ pilot and an unspecified personnel with an air traffic controller (ATC).

“So far, from what the team has heard, there was nothing unusual. The last voice heard was not the pilot’s. No, there was no indication that the pilots saw or sensed anything off,” the source said without elaborating further to protect the investigations.

This may mean that whatever happened was very sudden.

The CVR records all communications on the flight deck, including transmissions with air traffic controllers, discussions between the flight crew, cabin announcements and conversations with any other crew entering the cabin.

In this case, it could provide investigators with some insight into the flight crew’s mindset and emotional state if they had to deal with an emergency in the final moments.

However, it remains unclear if the Dutch-led investigation team had secured the recordings from the Ukrainian air traffic controllers to match the conversations between the ATC staff and the MH17 flight crew.

Asked about the Ukrainian government’s revelation on Monday that the aircraft was brought down by “a massive explosive decompression”, the source said the statement was “unconfirmed”.

The source told the NST that the “initial factual findings” of the probes into the shootdown of MH17 were expected to be released next week.

It is learnt that investigations also centred heavily on the findings provided by the group of three Malaysian investigators, who were among the first to reach the crash site and conduct probes.

The NST was told that instead of the 200 reported earlier, the experts dissecting the flight data recorder (FDR) were looking at 1,500 parameters of the black box.

The FDR records essential flight data parametres at least 10 times per second and defines the aircraft’s flight path and motion.

The data also include primary information, such as position, altitude, airspeed and heading. This allows investigators to reconstruct the aircraft’s flight path.

Also recorded in the FDR are the aircraft’s aerodynamics and engine parameters, including information from the air data computer and sensors.

The Dutch Safety Board (DSB), which is leading the international investigation into the downing of the aircraft, had said the findings would likely provide a picture of how the investigation would proceed.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak had said the aircraft’s flight data recorder and the CVR were among the “hard evidence” the investigation team needed to find out what happened.

DSB spokesman Sara Vernooij was quoted as saying the board would likely say “what it can rule out” and “what it is going to focus on”.

It is understood that the team of investigators at the crash site in eastern Ukraine would carry out verification of information that had been gathered from other sources.

This is to allow them to search for possible new information and collect material for the investigation, such as pieces of the wreckage.

The Dutch police had earlier this week received 150 photos and video clips on their server set up to piece together the mystery.

The photos were uploaded by eyewitnesses from what has been described as “the world’s biggest crime scene”.

New Straits Times CVR report --Charles Wood (talk) 12:30, 4 August 2014 (UTC)

ATC recordings
Initially it was reported that the SBU confiscated the ATC air-to-ground-communication. After weeks the Malaysians asked the Ukrainian ambassador to their country about this, and he denied that it had happened. He said he had no idea what happened to them and no formal request of any investigating party has been made. The Malaysian Attorney General then announced that he will make a formal request to get the recordings. This according to: --CE (talk) 11:49, 8 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Malaysia wants the ‘missing’ Ukrainian ATC tapes, New Straits Times, August 8, 2014