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Recent updates

July, 2016
10.7 DPR. Shelling by UAF continues, 4 civilians were wounded in Donetsk and Gorlovka. According to Ukrainian reports, 3 UAF soldiers were killed, 16 wounded (Rusvesna, quoting Andrey Lysenko). At present only previous day Lysenko report is posted, reporting that 1 UAF soldiers was killed and claiming that '6 militants were killed' (the latter not confirmed by the other side; Ukrainian claims on their own and opponent losses are known to be inaccurate in the past).

9.7 Poroshenko was at NATO summit and trying to gain more Western support. This resulted in "comprehensive aid package for Ukraine", and Joint Statement of the Ukraine-NATO Commission (with blaming Russia continued). WSJ give some brief details of informal meetings
 * ''NATO offered a new package of assistance on counter so-called hybrid threats, which include covert attacks aimed at undermining government legitimacy, as well as assistance on improvised explosive devices, or roadside bombs.

8.7 As a result of Ukrainian shelling, three DPR soldiers were killed in the past week, 2 were wounded. 7 civilians were wounded. 2 houses were destroyed and 77 damaged.

In a phone conference between Putin, Hollande and Merkel, the situation in Donbass is discussed.

6.7 Two DPR soldiers were wounded

In a meeting of Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Grigory Kasarin, with the ambassadors to Russia of Germany and France, and in a phone call between Presidents Putin and Obama, concerns about the escalation of violence in Donbass, and apparent preparations for more by the Ukrainian army, are expressed by the Russian sides.
 * White House: ''On Ukraine, President Obama urged President Putin to take steps to end the significant uptick in fighting in eastern Ukraine and stressed the urgent importance of moving forward with full implementation of the Minsk agreements.
 * Kremlin: During the discussion of Ukraine, the President of Russia again pointed to the importance of Kiev strictly observing the Minsk agreements of February 12, 2015, including the start of a real direct dialogue with Donetsk and Lugansk, amnesty, special status for the DPR and the LPR and the joint elaboration of a law on local elections. He emphasised that there is no alternative to a political settlement and stressed the need to step up efforts to address ceasefire violations and the importance of full compliance with the agreement on the withdrawal of heavy weapons and the separation of the sides to the conflict, in which the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission has a major role to play.

4.7 UAF shells Donetsk; a passenger bus and a cafe in Donetsk were hit, two civilians were wounded. 3 more civilians wounded in shelling of Kuibyshevskii district of Donetsk.

3.7 Commander of 7 DPR brigade, call name 'Zaria', was killed in what is described as terrorist attack in Makeevka, near Donetsk. THere was an explosion at railway crossing and his car was hit. Two people were killed and a driver wounded. 'Zaria' defended Debaltsevo against recent UAF attack (June 2016).

2.7 Kiev received the American counterbattery radars -ukropnews

1.7 It is said that DPR anti-aircraft defense missiles struck two Ukrainian drones over Donetsk -report.

12 people killed in DPR in the past week, including 8 soldiers, 2 civilians, and 2 children killed by power line downed in shelling. 9 people were wounded (DAN news).

June, 2016
UN OCHA Humanitarian Bulletin -Ukraine, June 2016.
 * ''June has been characterised by intense fighting in the conflict area in eastern Ukraine, resulting in the highest number of civilian casualties in a month since August 2015. The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) recorded 69 conflict-related civilian casualties in June (12 fatalities and 57 injuries). The majority of the casualties (four fatalities and 37 injuries) were caused by shelling from various artillery systems, including calibres prohibited by the Minsk Agreement. Moreover, 19 casualties (five killed and 14 injured) were caused by mines, explosive remnants of war and improvised explosive devices. Six civilians were injured by small arms including sniper fire across the ‘contact line’. Two boys were killed by electrocution from a power line downed by shelling. Since the beginning of the conflict, 21,880 people were wounded and 9,470 killed, up to 2,000 of the fatalities were civilians.


 * ''The situation is prone to further deterioration since the parties strive to gain territory in the buffer zone and, in several locations, have been moving their positions closer to one another in the past two weeks.

29.6 An attempt on life of DPR commander "Machete" near Debaltsevo. He and his wife were in a car which came under fire from a sniper rifle and a machine gun. Both managed to drop on the floor and survive.

28.6 UAF attempted to break through DPR defenses near Debaltsevo and were able to advance 4 kilometers, using banned artillery and armored vehicles (map).
 * UAF is said to suffer losses, two platoons of tanks T-64BV, and a large number of infantry, repelled to second line of DPR defense- Rusvesna
 * Cassad update, with maps and social media
 * It is said that LPR repelled UAF attack at Logvinovo.

DPR warns that situation becomes critical. DPR was shelled 830 times in the past day all over the contact line, including over 100 times by 152 and 122 mm artillery prohibited (by exclusion zones) according to Minsk 2 agreements

DPR asks Normandy 4 (and USA) to find firmer way for their recommendations, and introduce sanctions and punishment for not fulfilling those -DAN news. (That's quite reasonable, as security obligations are not fulfilled, but there is a danger if that is implemented not in good faith--and that's not impossible. May get some false flaggers and media warriors busy, in an unhealthy way. -Yet may be still better than guns, though.)

DPR will review its response procedures so that violations are not unpunished -Rusvesna

27.6 According to Ukrainian sources, Right Sector fighters attacked DPR positions in Shirokino, under Mariupol; 3 were killed and 6-8 captured according to report. Photo shows people with bags over head. (Also here)
 * Those were 2 DPR deminers killed, 8 taken prisoners by Ukraine. They were doing demining work in Shirokino in coordination with the OSCE mission (DAN news), (TASS).

UAF shells residential area in Kuibyshevskii district of Donetsk. Houses were damaged; there were children playing outside at the time.

Merkel at a press conference with Groisman tells that at present elections in Donbas are not possible -report, video

26.6 Parubii tells Nuland that Ukraine is not ready to implement constitutional amendments before a full ceasefire lasting some 30-60 days. Nuland was in Moscow to meet Surkov prior to that. Also Poroshenko was at the East Front prior to that, to bring soldiers some cherrys and to report in media on being fired at by the enemy.

25.6 Finally after almost 1.5 years of Minsk 2 violations, DPR will "insist on sanctions mechanism" for violations of " regime of quiet" in Donbas. According to Pushilin, all violations are logged and discussed by security subgroup, but without sanctions mechanism it is difficult to do anything about it in practice.

24.6 Explosion at a hospital in central Donetsk was an assassination attempt on Motorola, who has an eye wound. No injuries or casualties reported.
 * "It was not possible for perpetrators not to see that there were patients, doctors, customers, children at the hospital at that time. Therefore, it is nothing but a terrorist act" according to Motorola, who was accompanied by pregnant wife at the hospital. According to investigators, double explosion was planned, but did not happen as the device was not installed correctly.

22.6 On the 75th anniversary of the start of the Great Patriotic War, Zakharchenko holds question and answer session online with residents of Kiev.

20.6 'Situation aggravates in the south', DoNi press (English).
 * DPR names UAF officer who is said to be responsible for shelling residential areas of Novomarevka, Sahanka and Kominternovo Novoazovskiy district in the south of DPR on June 20, 2016; 11 houses were damaged as a result. Also noted is exchange of fire between UAF and 'Azov' nationalist battalion on June 21; 5 people were killed  (DAN news).

19.6 Quoting Ukrainian sources, three UAF soldiers were killed, one by shelling and two in landmine explosion. One soldier was wounded.

18.6 According to DPR tactical command chief Denis Sinenkov, UAF was ordered to fire on Right Sector positions from the flanks along separation line, than blame DPR. According to him, 18 RS fighters were killed in the past week. One such incident occurred under Avdeevka on 12-13 June; 4 RS fighters were killed, 12 wounded. He also mentions discrepancy between official ATO losses announcements and numbers provided by 'ATO Nurses/Kharkiv', indicating that RS losses are not officially acknowledged. (Does not look easy to get losses info from that ATO nurses cite....).
 * Official ATO cites? One such apparently closed down. Maybe here, and spokesman Vladislav Seleznev page.

17.6 DPR was shelled over 500 times in the past day. One DPR soldier was killed, one civilian was wounded. Six houses in Donetsk were damaged, two of them burned down. (DAN news).

In the past week, 3 DPR soldiers were killed, 6 civilians were wounded. DPR was helled over 3500 times; artillery, mortars, small firearms were used. Houses were damaged in Gorlovka, Dokuchaevsk, Donetsk. (DAN news)

16.6 DPR soldier was killed by sniper fire in 'grey zone' in Zaitsevo, north of Gorlovka. During evacuation attempt, another body was found. Continued sniper fire prevented recovery; bodies were evacuated after negotiations by Russian representatives of JCCC center with Ukrainian counterparts; 'calm period' was introduced and bodies evacuated. (DAN news).

15.6 DPR accused UAF commander in ordering shelling of residential areas of Krasnogorovka (Ukrainian-held) and Staromikhailovka (western Donetsk) using 152 mm howitzers, than firing on Right Sector imitating DPR response; 4 RS fighters were wounded.

14.6 Ukrainian citizens Soloshenko and Afanasiev, who spent almost two years in prison in Russia, were released and boarded a plane flying from Moscow to Kiev. Soloshenko was accused of attempting to buy spare parts for S-300 antiaircraft missile system; Afansiev campaigned in support of Ukraine in Crimea, was accused of planned vandalism. Ukrainian sources suggest that they can be exchanged for 'two Russian citizens' imprisoned after May 2, 2014 events in Odessa (names were not provided; see also: Evgenii Mefedov in 27.5.2016 news item).
 * 'Odessa journalists', Ukrainian citizens Yelena Glishinskaya (imprisoned in Odessa for 'separatism and treason') and Vitalii Didenko (editor in chief of 'Infotsentr' sentenced for 3 years in prison ) were delivered to Moscow in an apparent exchange deal. Said to be among organizers of 'People's Rada of Besarabia'​.

12.6 Video, Kiev region of Donetsk under fire.
 * After some time, for an unknown reason there were explosions and strong fire started in the Ukrainian-held village of Vodianoe.

Video by 'DoKTor GoR' from Gorlovka. He starts comments saying that small firearms are heard and mortars fire now expected. Muted sounds of shelling are heard, e.g. around 1:06, and stating around 1:47; loud heavy weapon explosion right before 2:00 timestamp. He comments that 'they are now not ashamed (to shell) when there is still daylight'

It is said, quoting Ukrainian sources, that over 50 UAF and Right Sector fighters were wounded or killed by return fire on Avdeevka and Marinka

11.6 It is reported that Ukraine used heavy 152 mm artillery to shell Makeevka, Yasinovataya; 20 shells said to be fired. A civilian was wounded in Makeevka.

Yasinovataya checkpoint and industrial zone were shelled from 122 mm artillery, 15 shells were fired.

Nine UAF soldiers were killed, 19 wounded in  failed Ukrainian attacks under Gorlovka and Avdeevka -DAN news. DPR shelled over 650 times in the past day.

10.6 One civilian, 4 soldiers were killed in DPR in the past week, 21 were wounded.

9.6 In Lvov, protests aimed at city administration and Sadovyi; some clashes, interior troops  deployed. Apparently triggered by death of firefighters extinguishing fires at a local landfill 1.6 Zakharchenko initiates public petition to UN, on Ukraine not fulfilling Minsk agreements, even the first items concerning security report and official announcement (Russ.)

Lavrov stated that recognition of DPR and LPR by Russia will be 'counterproductive'
 * ''You can slam the door, you can follow the example of those who, because of their inability to use diplomatic, political instruments, begin to immediately threaten that we recognize, sanction, and so on. I am convinced that it would be counter-productive, it at least gives occasion to the  West to depart from the present, even a very gentle, pressure on Kiev.
 * Comments draw sharp criticism from 'patriotic opposition' in Russia.

May, 2016
31.5 UAF shelled DPR 114 times in the past day.

"UAF artillery battery used to shell Donetsk caught fire. Possible causes include violating safety guidance, smoking in non-designating areas, alcohol consumption" report and video.

"13 and 16 battalions of 58 brigade of UAF in error shelled each other. 5 soldiers were killed in 13th battalion, and over 10 were wounded or killed in the 16th batalion"- Basurin, DPR.

28.5 DPR was shelled 266 times, including Kuibyshevskii region of Donetsk. Two civilians wounded, 21 houses damaged in the past day, including a kindergarten in Donetsk.

Speaker of the Ukrainian Presidential Administration on "ATO" Alexander Motuzyanik: 5 UAF soldiers killed, 4 wounded -Rusvesna

27.5 Avdeevka. Three DPR soldiers were wounded by UAF snipers, trying to evacuate bodies of their fallen comrades. OSCE and JCCC representatives came under sniper fire too (DAN News).

(Also, renewing sanctions on Russia in the background).

Russian citizen Evgenii Mefedov, under arrest in Odessa from 7 May 2014, was released from prison under house arrest, despite Right Sector protests. Did not play any role, apparently accidentally caught up in the unfolding events. Was on the third floor of the Trade Union building, suffered from smoke poisoning and light burns.
 * Arrested again, charged with 'separatism'

Ukraine’s ‘you invaded us’ debt non-payment defence, FT.
 * ''Mark Weidemaier, associate professor of law at the University of North Carolina, calls the dispute unique in the annals of debt litigation.“There is nothing typical about the Russia-Ukraine loan or the events that followed,” he said. “The Russia-Ukraine dispute involves a politically and militarily fraught conflict wrapped in a garden-variety contract dispute governed by English law … the resolution will depend primarily on political, economic and military considerations, rather than legal ones.”
 * See also: Rule of Law.

Poroshenko appoints former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen as special advisor to the president.

26.5 Avdeevka. Two DPR soldiers were killed, 1 wounded when UAF tried to break through DPR lines in the industrial zone of Avdeevka, which remain to be a flashpoint. Six UAF soldiers were reported killed.

25.5 Erofeev and Alexandrov arrived to Moscow by plane. Putin pardoned Savchenko, after relatives of journalists killed in Lugansk have asked for such a decision, and after meeting with them TASS report, in Russian.
 * RT video, Erofeev and Alexandrov arrival
 * Savchenko released and on video... ((translated to Russian)).

Plane with Savchenko departed to Ukraine. Erofeev and Alexandrov can be on their way to Russia, but not officially confirmed.

Official mourning day in Ukraine, anniversary of Petliura  killed (as well as, Rusvesna notes,  Poroshenko elected).

24.5 Normandy Four leaders discuss situation in Ukraine, TASS. "Vladimir Putin called for an immediate end to the shelling of populated localities in Donbass by Ukrainian Armed Forces," the Kremlin press service said.

DPR was shelled over 600 times in one day-DAN news

Ukraine: 7 Soldiers Killed, 9 Wounded in Eastern Clashes, ABC news

22.5 DPR announced that it prevented 'a bloody provocation' in Avdeevka, by 'conducting a series of measures' and 'strict observance of Minsk agreements despite increased shelling by Ukraine'. Further details were not provided in the announcement. Previously it was reported that provocations are expected and that Ukraine gathered journalists in ATO area in anticipation. In a separate report, DPR denied shelling Avdeevka, and denied that Russian representatives at JCCC were evacuated.

20.5 Latest weekly update puts the number of UAF shelling of DPR at 2086, with about half (1044) from heavy weapons.

19.5 Former Vice President of Russia Rutskoi : "For one shot on Donbass, Kiev must receive 10 in return", -Politnavigator.

18.5 UAF fired 216 mortar shells on northern Donetsk, Yasinovataya checkpoint and Dokuchaevsk-DAN news.

As a result of shelling, one DPR soldier was killed, another wounded

No real progress in Minsk. Political subgroup failed to meet today, as Ukrainian representative left the meeting and it is said that he resigned.

17.5 Nuland arrived to Russia for talks, May 17-18. Situation in Ukraine and bilateral ties are said to be on agenda-RIA 14.5 UAF fired over 170 mortar shells on 'Sakhanka village in the south, Novoazovsk region. Fire came from Ukrainian positions near Shirokino. Donetsk airport area and Spartak, north of Donetsk, were shelled too.

Pushilin: DPR will propose to extend Easter ceasefire (despite that it was not really a ceasefire; shelling was just slightly down. Any chance to have a real ceasefire?)

Ukraine's Jamala wins Eurovision 2016; Russia is third, UK is 24th  out of 26. (Some 'patriotic' commentary in Russia voiced preference for Russia loosing out, for Russia's song being disconnected from the national roots).

13.5 UAF shelled DPR over 800 times for the past week. 4 DPR soldiers were killed, another 4 wounded.

9.5 UAF shelled  DPR over 160 times in one day. A terrorist act was prevented in Donetsk; it was planned by Ukrainian sabotage group for May 9 Victory day celebrations.
 * Mother and girl wearing St. George bands were attacked by military-fatigued men in Kiev. They dispersed when this started to draw attention. Photos of the incident appeared in Russian media and draw attention and condemnation. One of the attackers turned out to be a as a Nazi sympathizer.

7.5 One DPR soldier was killed, another wounded as a result of shelling by UAF-DAN news

Geofrey Pyatt is to be shipped to Greece (kathimerini.gr), (uatoday.tv) said to be  replaced by a Russian-speaking, Serbian-origin  Mary Yovanovitch. So far so good... (This is as if somebody is trying to finally fix the Ukrainian mess --'as if' ).

4.5 Zakarchenko 'direct line' question-answer session with people of Odessa and Bessarabia -transcript (Russ.)

3.5 DPR was shelled 48 times in the past day, less than before, but not peace, clearly. That happened many times in the past, going back to old levels after awhile. More needs to be done.

2.5 Second year anniversary of Odessa massacre.
 * Photos, May 2, 2014-RIA

1.5

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5U0dZ6Bh7FM
 * May 1, together with Easter, celebrations in Donetsk. More photos from Donetsk and Luhansk. (Feels like  pre-Gorbachev USSR a bit).
 * Shelling continued in usual hot spots, despite promised ceasefire, Easter, and traditional holidays -Basurin video, English subs . Two DPR soldiers were killed.

Documenting Incidents, Human Rights violations

 * Interactive map of human rights violations, human rights NCO organization 'Just Defense' based in Moscow in partnership with Ombudsman-DPR vkontakte (vk.com) Ombudsman-DPR -Daria Morozova  (announcement video).

Analysis

 * Why They Are Killing Donbass? Novorossia TV with English subs. Blames consumerism, has very interesting cultural observations and quotations (incl late acad. Vladimir Arnold at 21:23 on educational reasons).

Blaming Ukraine
Gennady Korban (Kolomoiskii team) "ATO operation handling was a failure" ru.tsn.ua 'Korban made statements about corruption [...] and failed ATO handling'. Previously, criticized using heavy weapons in Donbass and suggested that at most police action is appropriate.

Blaming Russia

 * '(...) Lies about Ukraine', -Boris Nemtsov, Leonid Martyniuk-blames Russian Government (based on inaccurate or later reversed statements made at the official level).

Blaming the USA

 * Paul Craig Roberts ’ Address to the International Conference on the European/Russian Crisis Created by Washington', June 19, 2015. ...' Wolfowitz Doctrine...''The gullibility of the public has enabled Washington to establish the foundation for a new Cold War...' ' "Washington doesn’t want partners. Washington wants vassals" ' 'European governments and, of course, the lapdog UK government, are complicit in this implicit declaration of war against Russia and China. If it comes to war, Europeans will pay the ultimate price for the treason of their leaders [...] as Europe will cease to exist'.

Odessa news
26.4.2016 'Maidan' activists protesting against city mayor Trukhanov, erecting light barricades at the city administration building, were dispersed by unknown activists armed with wooden sticks and pepper spray, several protesters were injured (photos, videos in the report).

With May 2 anniversary approaching, situation remain tense. Nationalists are making threats aimed at city administration. Regional governor Saakashvilli asked Poroshenko to deploy national guards to the city for the early days in May, explaining that those were tragic events which still resonate with many people, while those responsible were not brought to justice; and that he feels extra guards are really needed. It appeared that the request was granted, but than contradicting reports appeared.

15.1.2016 Maria Gaidar became assistant head of Odessa regional administration (Saakashvilli is the head)

6.1.2016 The subsistence minimum (this is known as poverty level in the West) per odessite in 2016 is as follows: from January 1 - 1330 hryvnia per month (that is 55 USD at this time), from May 1 - 1399 hryvnia, from December 1 - 1496 hryvnia 1 TV, Odessa.

27.8 DPR all-for all prisoners exchange list includes 63 anti-maidan activists arrested or charged after May 2 events.

19.7 Saakasvilli clashed with Filatov, Kolomoiskii ally. Clash has to do with elections in Chernigov where another Kolomoiskii ally Korban is running. Saakashvilli is said to come to support opposing candidate Berezenko, his main opponent, but gave a different reason for the visit; that ended in verbal and almost physical clash with Filatov (video), and a court case threatened by Filatov.

17.7.2015 Maria Gaidar appointed vice-governor responsible for social policy. She is a daughter of late Yegor Gaidar (a reformer, acting prime minister of Russia in the second half of 1992). Indicated that her priority will be to show residents that regional authorities care about them. tAfter showing reluctance to persistent journalist questions on who Ukraine is fighting with, eventually provided] politically correct answer telling that Russia attacked Georgia and Ukraine (on her 4th attempt).

30.5.2015 Mikheil Saakashvili appointed governor of Odessa region. Poroshenko stated that knows Saakashvilli for a long time and trusts him. Control of Odessa port which may be used for military aid,  Transnistria border, and creating positive image abroad,  are seen as some of the reasons behind the appointment. Port control and other economic matters placed Saakashvilli on collision course with Kolomoiskii, whose ally was a previous Odessa governor.

Photos/Videos
Debaltsevo Damage to houses, big craters. It is said in the article that sometime UAF intentionally damaged houses by a direct fire.

Uglegorsk: NAF arranged a corridor for civilians (English sub.) Donetsk children Enakievo Gorlovka Nikishino Nikishino (center) Uglegorsk

l16zm2GXq3c
 * Donetsk Airport ~ Before and After, January 2015 . 3D model-sketchlab
 * Luhansk Airport photos,-Graham Phillips and Cassad.

Ukrainian Agony
December 20, 2015: German freelance journalist Mark Batalmai, who has lived in Donetsk since mid-2014 and worked embedded with the opolchenie, releases his crowdfunded full-length documentary "Ukrainian Agony" in an English-language version (German-language original).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsQX6Lm142g

Agreements

 * 22.7.15 Under-100 mm weapons withdrawal was agreed Poroshenko statement: ' I hope it will be the real beginning of the ceasefire'.
 * 12.2.15 Two documents were agreed: on measures on implementing Minsk protocol (English language PDF here).

Resurgent Events?
Since now, December 23 2015, for the (n+1) time unconditional ceasefire is announced, although I do hope that one is the last, there is no warranty. So I'll just keep labels and dates for important but so far resurgent events here.

February 23 update: by the end of January, 2016, lots of shelling incidents are again reported daily. Once again, promises of ceasefire did not materialize.


 * Unconditional Ceasefire in Donbas.
 * 23.12.15 (starting 0:00, Dec 23, 2015, as announced-TASS
 * (22.7.15)
 * (12.2.15)


 * Donetsk Airport, Donetsk suburbs shelled by Ukraine
 * 13.2.16;9.2.16; 26.1.16(tank fire);25.1.16;21.1.16; 20.1.16;15.1.16; 13.1.16;31.12.15 (Staromikhailovka); 29.12; 28.12.15 (Zhabichevo); 27.12.15(Petrovskyi) ; 26.12.15(Spartak); 24.12.15 ; 13.12.15 (Dokuchaevsk).
 * (Every other day, up until now)


 * Gorlovka, nearby villages shelled (Rusvesna updates-Gorlovka)
 * 13.2.16;21.1.16; 11/12.1.16 (Engl).; 10.1.16 (1 DPR killed) 9.1.2016; 27.12.15; 24.12.15.
 * (Similar to the above)


 * Villages near Mariupol shelled by Ukraine
 * 25.1.16 (artillery, from Mariupol);Kominternovo: 21.1.16;31.12.15 29.12.15 ; 24.12.15 + Basurin & OSCE came under sniper fire, 27.12

....

Updates
28.4.16 Detailed discussion of Nuland visit and Minsk progress by a Ukrainian source. Renewed push, with a deadline of having laws in place by the end of May, implementation by the end of summer is noted. IMF loan to Ukraine may be linked to Minsk implementation, as well as adoption of a packet of other required laws. However, so far Poroshenko tactics was to delay implementation hoping that time is on the side of Ukraine, and such an approach may last forever.

25.3.16 Foreign Minister Steinmeier in Moscow: "We need Russia to help resolve conflicts". Highlights insufficient progress implementing Minsk-2.

27.1.16 Constitutional amendments: Russia's position in Minsk talks:
 * the vote on the Constitution of Ukraine should be tightly linked to the simultaneous adoption of the amendments to Articles 1 and 10 of the law on the special status of Donbass by giving special status of a permanent framework according to "Steinmeier formula";
 * revision of the amendments to the law on the special status should be agreed in the contact group;
 * A legal formula has to be found that guarantees that paragraph 18 of the transitional provisions of the Constitution will refer to the current wording of articles 2-9 of the law on the special status and to new, agreed by the contact group, wording of Articles 1 and 10;
 * This formula should be fixed (закрепить (Rus) = lit. 'fix, make firm'; here 'used'/'entered') in the Constitution of Ukraine;
 * it is also necessary to legislate in the Constitution of Ukraine, that the powers of those representatives elected in Donbass elections under a separate law will not be discontinued in 2017, as is envisaged in the constitutional reform for the rest of Ukraine

Ukraine Contact Group notes "good exchange of views" — OSCE official, TASS-English

11.1. 2016 Boris Gryzlov visited Kiev. Next trilateral group meeting is on 13.1.2016 in Minsk.

Normandy four agreed to extend Minsk agreements into the year of 2016, TASS, Dec. 30, 2015

24.12.2015 Kuchma fools around trying to reinterpret Minsk agreements, demanding border control and in effect DPR/LPR disarmament prior to elections. This is not what was agreed (and could not possibly be agreed the way he tries to put it now, with Novorossia advancing militarily at the time of the agreement). Dirty games now, and so not surprisingly no progress... 18.11.2015 Ukraine did not show up for a contact group meeting where a law on special elections in Donbas was to be discussed. Previously, it was reported that sides could not reach an agreement. According to Pushilin, agenda included a ban for Ukrainian political parties to participate in local elections in Donbas, mechanism of participation for temporary displaced persons, and amnesty law.

15.3 Minsk 3 ? It is rumored that part of Ukrainian leadership is seeking a compromise and another Minsk meeting. Maybe an info release merely testing waters; but the essence of compromise is said to be a special mode to local government which covers the entire territory of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions (including those controlled by Ukraine), but these areas will be led by the people agreed as Kiev and Moscow, and the other members of the Minsk process (Germany and France). It is said that a similar proposal was made a year ago after a meeting involving Kuchma, Medvedchuk, and DPR, but Poroshenko refused to consider it and started the ATO instead. Ukrainian media claim that the plan is actually coming from "representatives of Moscow".
 * Kremlin 'melancholically denied' (Cassad) re-interpretations/free interpretations of Minsk TASS

12.6.15 Poroshenko expects to submit de-centralization bill to Rada by the end of parliamentary session in July
 * other constitutional changes proposed by the sides: see news entry for 9.6.15 above

10.6.15 Kuchma: Russia insists on including Novorosiia representatives into tripartite liaison group, Normandy format; but his is not acceptable to us; they are included as consultants.

17-19.03 Russia called for a UNSC closed door meeting to discuss Ukraine breaking Minsk 2 agreements. Later Lavrov criticized the US position, and indicated further diplomatic moves and planned meetings in in Normandy format 16.03 Special status law requires elections based on laws of Ukraine prior to such special status. LPR/DPR were not consulted about this (although that is required in Minsk 2 agreements). With leaders of LPR/DPR and Soviets recently elected already, another elections will be problematic. There were no local elections though, may be local elections can be arranged in a way acceptable to both sides.

14.03 Poroshenko introduced special status law for Rada consideration -TASS quoting Rada site.

13.03 Zakharchenko and Plotniskii write to Hollande and Merkel about Ukraine not fulfilling its obligations: not following schedule on heavy weapons withdrawal; (most importantly) Rada has not started discussing special status for Donetsk, Lugansk regions--that work is supposed to finish by 14 March; continued economic blockade.

27.02 UNSC meeting on Ukraine started with OSCE report, highlighting state of affairs and challenges OSCE faces. Overall partial calming of warfare in the past several days noted. Neither side was willing to provide details of heavy weapons they posses, or their exact destination after proposed withdrawal. Technology (e.g. satellite), experts, and procedures need to be upgraded for OSCE to fulfill its required mission (video of OSCE presentation in Russian translation is here, other languages not found at this time)
 * abc news report dailystar SBS
 * Churkin gives a brief account of the UNSC closed door meeting TASS-English

24.02 FM meeting in Normandy format ended in Paris; heavy weapons withdrawal, verification, Debaltsevo were discussed, nothing new signed. Germany has concerns with implementation.

19.02 Poroshenko has held a phone conversation in the Normandy format, told them "not to pretend that the events in Debaltseve meet the Minsk agreements". He has also urged to elaborate clear guarantees for the possible attempts of violating the given agreements in the future. (Debaltsevo situation was known in Minsk--indeed he should not be pretending).

18.02 Poroshenko plans to ask for UN peacekeepers

17.02 UN SC unanimously approved a resolution supporting Minsk agreements. (Yet, testy rhetoric noted by Churkin)

14.02 Russia introduced UN SC resolution approving Minsk agreements of February 12. So far, English speaking world, UK and USA, did not clearly expressed their positions, and it may give an indication. So far, it was along the lines that Russia has to deliver, and may be further sanctioned otherwise, while Ukraine has nothing to deliver, and will not be sanctioned for failures. Russian officials called for a change of such approach, taking a position that the conflict is internally Ukrainian and Russia is not a participant (example). While Russian media are making presentations indicating that it is the USA who is a participant, in Kiev overlord capacity (example).

12.02 Two documents were agreed: 10.02 Contact Group agrees (a plan of)  heavy troops withdrawal, ceasefire regime -TASS
 * on measures on implementing Minsk protocol (English language PDF here). Ceasefire starting on February 15; separation of heavy weapons (from actual line for Ukraine, and from September 19 line for Novorossia; this enlarges separation), starting in 2 days from ceasefire, finishing in 14 days. All for all prisoners exchange, to finish in 5 days from separation begins. Time limits are given for all major steps. Return of border control to Ukraine is agreed to occur after local elections and constitutional reform (taking interests of breakaway regions into account)
 * declaration of support of Ukrainian peace settlement. This includes support and control of implementation.
 * It may be the case that sides do not make binding obligations, but approve and support listed measures (language is a bit vague, if something is broken later, or sides do not agree whether later vague steps actually occurred, not clear exactly what will follow)

Plotniskii, Zakharchenko press statement (English subs)

Still no direct contact between official Kiev and Novorossia. -(Mentioned by Putin in his press statement as one of the reasons negotiations took so long, had to go back and forth with Trilateral Group).

08.02 After telephone conference today, it is said that Normandy four to meet in Minsk on 11.02 if some positions will be resolved prior to that. Details of positions not explained. (Lukashenko talked to both Putin and Poroshenko about this and is happy and keen for them to come to Minsk)

06.02 Hollande-Merkel-Putin talks are finished in Moscow, it is said that a Normandy format document is being prepared based on meetings in Kiev and Moscow. Phone conference call in Normandy format expected on Sunday. (--Putin spokesman Peskov, TASS).) Putin off to Sochi, meets Lukashenko and rests; Hollande and Merkel also departing Moscow.

Petro Poroshenko, Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande insist on the immediate and unconditional ceasefire in the Donbas

Plotniskii and Zakharchenko press conference -explains Republics position why it is not their fault that latest Minsk meeting did not succeed (English subs).

Victor Baloga, Governor of trans-Carpathian region of Ukraine, proposes a referendum on whether to continue war or separate from the rebel regions. Also, Gennady Korban, assistant Governor, Dnepropetrovsk, proposes to choose between war and an agreement.

Maps


Dragon-First maps; Kot Ivanov.

Total
8.7.15 Zakharchenko, at a a joint LPR/DPR press conference: "In 2015,  1212 people were killed, including 25 children under the age of 18 years ". During the conflict in 2014, 3864 DPR peeople  died, including 522 women and 65 children. "That is more than 5000 of our people were killed just because they are residents of Donbass." (unclear is this civilian deaths or total deaths--probably total). More than 6,200 people, including women, children and the elderly were seriously injured and became disabled for life were. More than two thousand DPR inhabitants are missing.

14.8.15 From the start of hostilities, 5061 people were killed, among them 4295 men and 766 women, according to the Office of the Commissioner for Human Rights in DPR; and according to the Center for Emergency Medical Aid, 6100 were wounded Dan-news, 14.8.15. The figure is close to the one given by Zakharchenko in July (he had a higher number of 5076, so a small discrepancy here)

Children killed
3.12.15 DPR ombudsman: during the conflict, almost 80 children were killed in Donbass, Rossiiskaia Gazeta, 3.12.2015. According to DPR ombudsman Yana Chepikova, uring the hostilities, 78 children were killed in DPR, 313 were injured, 35 of them seriously injured. In LPR, 30 children were killed according to data available.

Military Casualties
19.02 Zakharchenko: Ukrainian losses in Debaltsevo cauldron may be up to 3 -3.5 thousand killed. There are plans to release or exchange those taken prisoners.

16.02 UAF: estimated 60 killed; NAF 2 killed, 21 wounded (source).

14.02 for the day and up to the ceasefire started: UAF lost 111 killed, NAF lost 8 killed, 28 wounded -Basurn

13.02 up to 100 UAF killed  Basurin, DPR

12.02 Day + night, UAF lost 169 killed (links in the news section)

08.02 LPR commander Maxim Martakov, a military policeman, and 6 fighters were killed under Chernukhino. They provided corridor for civilians. 11 UAF soldiers were killed, 29 wounded (Basurin)

04.02.15 UAF losses: 21 killed

03.02.15 UAF losses estimated at 79 killed.

02.02.15 UAF losses estimated at 130 killed.
 * Totals. In 29 days, up to ceasefire starting, 2760 UAF killed, 60 taken prisoners -Basurn
 * In 22 days since fighting restarted, 2056 UAF killed (Basurin)
 * 17 Jan.-3 Feb. UAF losses estimated at 1738 killed, 52 taken prisoners (Basurin, DPR).

Civilian Casualties
According to the Head of the DNI, the year the war seriously injured for life became disabled more than 6,200 people, including women, children and the elderly. More than two thousand inhabitants DNI missing. 08.02 Many instances of shelling of Donetsk with MLRS (including Uragans), and artillery. One very powerful explosion (videos available) was reported as well. Later it was said that a chemical plant producing paints and dry mixes in Donetsk was hit by a heavy artillery shell (DPR did not confirm that it was ammunition plant); preliminary information is that nobody was killed in that explosion.

07.02 After ceasefire ended on 6.02, Ukraine attempted an attack on the whole front line; the attack was repelled. 6 civilians were killed, 15 wounded in Donetsk due to shelling by Ukraine from the North-West.

05.02. Shelling by Ukraine had 7 civilians killed, 44 wounded, most of them in Donetsk. Schools, hospitals, kindergartens hit. Ukraine is using Smerch MLRS; range is 80 km; a full salvo covers an area of 8 football fields.

04.02 Donetsk hospital shelled, 5 killed, 5 wounded. Civilian objects destroyed: Donetsk 17, Makeevka 28, Gorlovka 2

02.02.15 16 killed, 34 wounded in DPR and LPR combined. Civilian areas hit by MLRS, Makeevka and Donetsk, (13), (14) on opolchenie map, 02.02.2015

22.01 Donetsk bus shelled at least 8 killed, 13 injured
 * Residents react abusively to UAF 'cyborg' officer captured earlier at the Airport and brought to the scene

13.01 Volnovakha bus: 12 killed, 18 wounded (talk). 24.01 Mariupol market shelling: 30 killed, 83 injured (talk).
 * Totals. Latest official UN figure: 224 civilians killed and 545 wounded in the three weeks leading up to 1 February. According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), the overall death toll now exceeds 5,358 people, with another 12,235 wounded since mid-April last year (Deaths here are likely certified, and mostly civilian).

Gorlovka
In 6 months ending July 2015, 164 civilians were killed, including 16 children; 501 were wounded, including 42 are children DAN news,  quoting city administration data,31 July 2015.

Military Hardware Lost
23.02 Zakharchenko: 'Poroshenko is our main ally'. In 5 days at Debaltsevo, 170 UAF tanks were captured or destroyed; most of them can be repaired. Also, 50 artillery pieces; they did not even count mortars. Ammunition, still move it out by railroad wagon-loads.

19.02 In Debaltsevo, opolchenie captured 265 pieces of UAF military equipment. 28 tanks, 63 BMP/BTR, 145 vehicles, 16 anti-aircraft guns, 13 artillery and mortar pieces were found in good condition and have been adopted by the DPR army. Also captured: about 1000 firearms, 39 ammunition storages and 2 railroad card with ammunition -Basurin

14.02 4 Grads launchers and ammunition seized by NAF near Debaltsevo -Basurn

03.02.15 Two UAF SU 25 were shot down (near Commisarovka and Chernukhino; one pilot bailed out). Also a drone shot down near Irvino

02-03.02.15 UAF lost 5 tanks, 1 BMP, 11 artillery pieces, one plane (and/or one Tochka U)
 * Totals: for 29 days, up to ceasefire: UAF lost 3 airplanes, 1 helicopter, 205 tanks, 182 BMP, BTR, MTLB, 208 field artillery guns, 124 vehicles  -Basurn
 * for 22 days since fighting restarted: UAF lost 3 planes, 1 helicopter, 168 tanks, 133 BMP/BTR, 124 artillery pieces, 94 vehicles
 * 17 Jan.-3 Feb. UAF lost 3 planes, 1 helicopter, 146 tanks, 114 BMP/BTR, 91 artillery pieces, 64 vehicles

Banned Weapons Use


There were numerous reports on phosphorus bomb use, with consistent photo and video footage, witness reports, burns consistent with such weapons use, etc. Many articles on Rusvesna on this topic. One of them here, for example, contain a photo of an explosion, and video, allegedly of nationalist battalion fighters, based on colors/regalia, discussing and accepting that such munitions were used by Ukraine (dated 13.02.2015 ). There were numerous other such incidents. The latest phosphorous munition report is by DoNI press,, translated at Fort Russ, Apr. 24, 2016, from Zaitsevo.

02.02.15 Report on phosphorous ammunition used against civilians by Ukraine-burns can be seen.

More photos, sky alight in Marinka (Donetsk suburb), Aug. 1, 2014

Cluster munitions

04.02.15 UAF shelled Telmanovo from Mirnoe by Smerch MLRS, civilian houses destroyed

03.02.15 Luhansk and Donetsk: Smerch, heavy MLSRS with cluster munitions used by Ukraine.

28.01.15 OSCE confirms (03.02.15 report) that cluster Smerch munitions were used against Artemivskyi district of Luhansk, shelling was from NNW. (Shelling done by Ukraine).

Economy

 * Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten: "The IMF has pumped billions in recent months into the Ukrainian financial system to stabilize the country's banks. Approximately $ 1.8 billion were going to the largest financial institution Private Bank, which is controlled by the oligarch Igor Kolomoiski. But instead of investing the money into the Ukrainian economy, Kolomoiski has managed to channel the emergency loans through a network of offshore companies abroad". Ukrainian anti-corruption project "Our Money" ('Наші гроші' (ukr) = "Nashi Groshi") is quoted as offering an explanation of the scheme, involving a 'purchase' of foreign goods which were never delivered, using a credit from Private Bank, and the payment deposited to accounts in off-shore branches of the Privat Bank.


 * Ukrainian $18 bln debt (held in bonds) will receive a 20% 'haircut'. However, between 2021 and 2040 investors will receive up to 40 per cent of the value of Ukraine’s annual economic growth above 4 per cent, although total payments will be capped at 1 per cent for the first four years.    Ukrainian GDP is 177.4 billion USD ‎(2013) -by google search. It went down quite a lot in 2014; but the IMF projection is 134 bln USD in 2020. One percent of that in growth is 1.3 bln; such amount may be paid to investors for 20 years bringing 26 bln USD. Write-off amount is about 3.6 bln USD. This wonderful deal is called a 'win-win' by Ukrainian finance minister and the Guardian . Franklin Templeton is one of the largest investors involved. Russia has 3 bln USD in Ukrainian debt and is not participating in the deal.(Vasili Muravitskii/Cassad brought up this matter).

News Sources

 * Opolchenie version of events. Rusvesna-news (rusvesna.su, Russian),   (rusvesna.su, English) , (rusnext.ru, Russian).
 * Official Donetsk People Republic (DPR) news dan-news.info.
 * Oplot TV-Donetsk Live now, youtube channel vk Oplot TV
 * First Republican Channel-DPR youtube vk ('official channel of DPR', created in April 2014, and unofficially broadcasting some material online; possibly re-broadcasting Russia 24 in their vacant slots.
 * Lugansk People Republic (LPR) news: LPR Sovet (legislature) site, news, luganskallnews.ru,  news, lug-info.com


 * Ukrainian version of events: TSN (Ukraine)(Ukrainian or Russian), Channel 5 -Ukraine
 * Rada; President.


 * OSCE SMM-Ukraine
 * TASS Chronicle-link to daily updates, (Russian),  TASS  - Ukraine (English) (easiest to search).
 * Daily Press Briefings - US Department of State

English-language sources

 * DONI, based in Donetsk
 * TASS (Engl)
 * OSCE SMM

Documentaries

 * "Les masques de la revolution", Russian dubbed over French version, Feb. 1, 2016
 * 'Times of Donbass' (Italian/Russian), Jan 12, 2016

Opinion Polls

 * IRI poll, January 2016
 * Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), July 2015
 * 13,3% would vote for the party "Block of Petro Poroshenko"
 * 12,8% - for the All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland" (Yulia Timosenko)
 * 6,8% - for the party "Union Samopomich" (Sadovyi)
 * 5,8% - for the Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko,
 * 4,1% - for the party "Opposition block" (Boyko) --formerly 'Party of Regions'-Yanukovich
 * 3,1% - for the party "Civil position"
 * 3,0% - for the party "Right Sector"
 * 3,2% - have crossed all the parties /spoiled bulletin
 * 14,3% - chose not to vote,
 * 23,5% - hard to choose,
 * 2,6% - refusal
 * 2,6% - refusal


 * Source: Socio-Political Situation In Ukraine: July 2015. Report also have opinions on various peace/Russia issues, by region (English).


 * How Do The Attitude Of Ukrainians To Russia And Russians To Ukraine Has Changed


 * In DPR/LPR, polling is done by Center for Sociological Study 'Special Status' (Центр социологических исследований «Особый статус» -russ.) Here is their opening presentation.  Poll results are published by news sources.
 * DPR poll conducted in the beginning of August in 19 DPR towns, 5900 people took part, 5% statistical error
 * 43 % for DPR to join the Russian Federation (33.8% 3 months ago)
 * 17 % for DPR to be independent ('sovereign') (42.8 % 3 months ago)
 * 18 % for the 'creation of a joint state' (unclear what that would be exactly- some sort of autonomy aligned with Russia)
 * 11 % ('not more than')  for DPR as a part of Ukraine. 14.9 % see some future with Ukraine following Minsk agreements (18.8 % 3 months ago)

Abbreviations Used
DPR: Donetsk People Republic (prime minister: Alexander Zakharchenko)

LPR: Lugansk People Republic (head: Igor Plotniskii)

JCCC Joint Center for Control and Co-ordination, consists of Ukrainian and Russian military officers,- tries to mediate to have ceasefire implemented.

MLRS: Multiple Launch Rocket System, Grad/Uragan/Smerch. Uragan or Smerch typically have cluster munitions

UAF (=AFU): Ukrainian Armed Forces

NAF (=AFN): Opolchenie, Novorossia Armed Forces

OSCE: Organization for Security and Co‑operation in Europe

RSG: recon and subversion group

SMM: Special Monitoring Mission-OSCE