Aden airport rocket attack December 30 2020

Summary
Two explosions from projectiles struck Aden airport whilst members of new 'unity government' were being received as they disembarked from their flight from Saudi Arabia. 28 people were killed. The unity government was the result of a power sharing deal, under the reanimated Riyadh accord, between the exiled Saudi coalition backed government and the UAE backed Southern Transition Council. UK and US officials have blamed the Houthis, with the attack being cited as justification in the outgoing US State Dept's listing of Ansarallah as a terrorist organisation. This attribution remains highly questionable. It is likely that the attack stems from a party to the conflict in South Yemen, rather than the northern based Ansarallah. Building from objections raised in this ISWNews analysis, we put forward criticism of the official narrative below. We suggest a plausible alternative attribution also.

See also UAE Saudi proxy conflict: southern seperatists and Hadi government in exile

Bellingcat and partners investigation: Criticism



 * Attack on Aden International Airport - Yemeni Archive, February 9, 2021
 * Rockets over Yemen: Inside the Houthis’ Botched Attack on Aden Airport - Bellingcat, February 9, 2021
 * The attack on the airport of a busy port city was caught on multiple videos. But so were a number of missile launches from Houthi-held cities to the North-West of Aden — on the very same day. An analysis of open source information from these locations suggests that, despite their denials, the Houthis were most likely responsible for the attack on Aden airport.

--- Problems with the account


 * The "Houthis" had not been shy about claiming missile or drone strikes, including on airports or infrastructure in both the KSA or UAE. They were keen to publicize their capacity for such strikes. However, they denied responsibility for this attack. Any motives they would have for the strike are not accounted for, nor any reason suggested for what would be a change in their posture.


 * The missiles "were using a navigation system that relied on a precise GPS-guided technology" according to officials of the western backed Aden government. . But the videos of launches referenced by Bellingcat appear to be of rudimentary rockets, like the Qassam, with a maximum range of at most 20km.


 * The sites geolocated by Bellingcat are at much greater distance (Taiz airport 136km and Dhamar considerably further) from Aden airport. As presented, their investigation and its weak conclusion do not account for the attack.


 * (Qassam specification here shows 20 km range at most. See also the Grad, with comparable parameters, which after long development history in several countries achieved ranges from 13 to 52 km, with early modifications range of about 20 km). While range is sensitive to parameters (weight ratios, air resistance, etc), geolocated distance appears to be well outside the expected range of the device presented on video and photos; the latter can be estimated as about 20 km, or less.

UN investigation

 * March 30 The UN investigators apparently consider that the attack must have have come from the sites geolocated by Bellingcat and say that only 'the huthis' had the capability.


 * Exclusive: UN team finds Huthis launched Aden airport attack that killed 22 – diplomats - Reuters via Egypt Independent, March 30, 2021
 * The experts presented their report to the UN committee that oversees Yemen-related sanctions during closed consultations on Friday, but Russia blocked its wider release, the diplomats said. They asked for anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter...
 * The UN expert panel determined that the Huthis launched missiles at Aden airport from two locations that were under the movement’s control at the time, the airport in Taiz and a police station in Dhamar, the diplomats said.

Taiz Axis forces, likely suspects?
[[File:Taiz Aden Al Ahkum12.png|thumb| A few days later January 5, 2021 reports that STC militias had launched operations against Al-Islah in Lahj region's strategic heights.
 * ''...the announcement made by the STC indicates that it comes in response to the deployment of Islah militants on the heights of Tor al-Bahah, al Maqatirah and al-Madaribah areas...Click for map locations and more]] Taiz Aden map.png

There are reported to be three Yemeni Brotherhood (Al-Islah) military bases in the Tur al Baha (or Tawr al-Bahah) district. Tur al Baha is approx 70km north-west of Aden Airport (Zoom earth location). The bases are located in the mountainous area south/south-east of Taiz city.

Official investigators stated that the missiles came from the North-West. So the video evidence of the impacts would be consistent with an attack from that region. The Turkish and Qatari supported, Yemeni Brotherhood Taiz Axis forces were not reconciled with the STC. In fact a few days after the attack, January 5, 2021 reports surfaced that STC militias had launched operations against Al-Islah in Tor al-Bahah and nearby strategic heights.

This report from Feb 2021 claims Turkish supplied missile systems and drones were in place at one of the camps. Given also the hostility between Turkey and the UAE, these 'Taiz-axis' forces would seem to be the most likely suspects for the attack, which was executed with high - if not total - accuracy.

For more See talk

Analysis

 * All Eyes On Aden, As Saudi Arabia Shows Inability To Protect Its Yemeni Puppet Government - Southfront, December 31, 2021
 * Investigating details of rocket attack on Aden airport - ISWNews, January 5, 2021
 * Examining the dimensions and details of the recent rocket attack on Aden airport denies the allegations made against Ansar Allah and Iran regarding the execution and responsibility of this attack...

For ACLOS discussion see talk page
 * 2020 Aden Attacks (Wikipedia)