Airstrike on Saeqa military camp near Deir ez-Zor

According to the General Staff of the Syrian Army, on December 6, 2015, from 19:40 to 19:55, aviation of the Western coalition made an airstrike on a field camp of the 168th Brigade of the 7th Division of the governmental troops of the Syrian Armed Forces located 2 km to the west of Deir ez-Zor.

The strike resulted in destruction of 3 infantry fighting vehicles, 4 automobile vehicles equipped with large-caliber machine guns (DShK); 12 people were injured, 4 were killed. (Source)

Syrian official sources, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights with its local sources, all agreed it was a coalition attack. But the US and allies instantly denied the allegation, claiming to hit only targets 55 kilometers to the southeast of the base, and then claims were lodged by an unnamed U.S. official that it was in fact a Russian aircraft that carried out the attack, presumably in error, a claim so far received with tentative credence by the mainstream media.

ACLOS Analysis
(analysis in progress - see talk page)

At right is a visual comparison of alleged attack directions, per Syrian army witnesses and sources (in red) compared to the area of the Saeqa base strike (target #2) and acknowledged U.S. coalition strikes at about the same time (white area).

The Syrian story is that four coalition jets first attacked sites near al-Bukamal at the Iraq border. One pair of jets then turned and attacked the Saeqa base, flying from the east, shortly before 8 pm local time. One or both pairs of attacking jets then continued north hit targets in ISIS-held Shadadi.

The coalition claims it made 4 strikes in the Deir Ezzour area that night, but all were to ISIS-held oil sites, and none were to Syrian military, nor any people or vehicles (later, a couple of civilians killed in Deir Ezzour that night were reported). They says none of their strikes were closer to the base than the white area, 55 km southeast of Ayash.

As this graphic illustrates, they acknowledge airstrikes that evening just a bit further back along the described attack flight path. Whoever attacked the base also flew over that patch of ground.

However, anonymous officials also claim (US News) their strike was about an hour before the actual base attack by Rusian forces; Russian long-range bombers came in secretly an hour later (9pm, in either Syria or Iraq time, unclear) flying from Russia through Iran and Iraq. Once there, they hit Bukamal, then the Saeqa base, (or flew over it "within one minute of the explosion that killed the Syrian troops"). They presumably made this attack by mistake, officials suggest.

Initial reports
According to Al Khaleej, “the coordination committees of the Syrian Revolution [also] confirmed the deaths and injuries caused by the bombing of coalition forces that targeted Al Sa’eka camp of the Assad regime.” And Daesh also claimed that Coalition planes bombed Assad forces shortly after hitting Islamic State positions.
 * Al Masdar news: It is reported that US-led coalition planes hit Syrian Army position], killing some soldiers, in a rare or first incident of such sort. Unclear why they would do this on the eve of political negotiations; possibly done in error.
 * Syria conflict: 'Coalition strike' kills government forces - BBC News, December 7, 2015
 * ''A US-led coalition air strike on an army camp in Syria kills three soldiers, the Syrian government says, condemning the act of "flagrant aggression".
 * Four Syrian Soldiers Killed in US-Led Coalition Airstrike - Sputnik, 07.12.2015 (cites "sources," no government confirmation, 3 killed)
 * US-led coalition airstrike on SAA position in Deir Ezzor (Photos) - AlManarTV, December 7, 2015 (original) Photos of serious destruction within the base - this would be quite an error.
 * Airwars.org Reported civilian and ‘friendly fire’ deaths from Coalition airstrikes 2015
 * Reported coalition strikes for Dec 6-7 via Airwars.org
 * Iraq 11 strikes (5,707-5,717)
 * Syria 9 strikes (3,004-3,012)
 * Confirmed actions: US, Canada
 * 3 ‘friendly forces’ alleged killed at Al Ayyash, Syria
 * 3 civilians reported killed at Dayr ez Zawr, Syria
 * ''In Syria, coalition military forces conducted nine strikes using attack, fighter, and remotely piloted aircraft. ... Near Dayr Ar Zawr, four strikes struck four ISIL oil well-heads.

"The consensus among the Syrian Arab Army soldiers is that the warplane was flying west towards the village of ‘Ayyash before 9 missiles struck their positions. According to the Shaytat Tribesmen, the tribes of Abukamaal (eastern Deir Ezzor) reported coalition airstrikes above their city just a few minutes (before) they struck ‘Ayyash. Following the attack on ‘Ayyash in Deir Ezzor’s northern countryside, the U.S. led Coalition warplane struck the ISIS stronghold of Al-Shadadi in southern Al-Hasakah before completing their mission."
 * Details Behind the U.S. Coalition’s Airstrike that Killed 3 Syrian Soldiers in Deir Ezzor, Al Masdar News, December 9, 2015

Western denial

 * Syria conflict: Coalition denies air strike on army camp - BBC News, December 7, 2015 (Updated)
 * ''The Syrian government has said three of its soldiers have been killed in a US-led coalition air strike, but the coalition has denied responsibility.
 * US-Led Coalition Denies Involvement In Airstrike That Killed 4 Syrian Soldiers In Deir Ez-Zor Province - Sneha Shankar, IB Times, December 7, 2015
 * ''UPDATE: 4:23 a.m. EST -- The U.S.-led coalition, which was suspected to have killed four Syrian soldiers in an airstrike in the western Deir ez-Zor province, has denied any involvement in the attack, Al Jazeera reported on Monday.

Accusing Russia

 * Russian strike hits Syria army camp: U.S. official - Reuters, Beirut, 7 December 2015
 * Russia likely conducted deadly airstrike on Syrian military base, US official says - FoxNews, December 07, 2015
 * U.S. Officials Deny Bombing the Syrian Army in Deir Ezzor: Russians Blamed - LEITH FADEL, December 7, 2015
 * US News, Dec. 7
 * U.S. officials cited coalition surveillance and other data they said showed that Russian aircraft launched airstrikes near the Syrian army camp. One senior official said the Russian aircraft were in the air around 9 p.m. Sunday near the city of Deir el-Zour, whereas the coalition aircraft were flying an hour earlier about 55 kilometers away.

Note: Syria claims the attack was around 7:50 PM, or about an hour before the alleged Russian presence and about the same time as the acknowledged US presence. However, Syria's given time was local (GMT +2) and the official may have been using Iraq time (MT +3).
 * A senior U.S. official said radar tracked a dozen Russian TU-22 bombers that left Mozdok, Russia, traveled over the Caspian Sea, across portions of Iran and Iraq, and launched airstrikes in Raqqa, Deir el-Zour and Al Bukamal, Syria.


 * Radar shows Russian bombers making seven passes over the city of Deir el-Zour dropping munitions, the official said, adding that one of the TU-22s made a pass over the area of the army camp within one minute of the explosion that killed the Syrian troops. Overall, the Russian bombers launched strikes in four locations around Deir el-Zour.


 * The U.S. officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to discuss the matter publicly.


 * New York Times
 * A senior United States official later attributed any deaths and any damage to the Syrian base to what he called “a screw-up” by the Russians ... “We’ve got a radar track showing a Backfire bomber flying directly over the town that the Syrians named a few minutes before the first claims that we killed some Syrian troops,” the American official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational details.

It's not clear how the radar track revealed the exact model of aircraft, or if they learned that some other way.

Syrian and Russian claims

 * 4 US-led coalition jets seen over Deir ez Zor in Syria on day govt troops attacked - Moscow - RT, December 9, 2015
 * ''Four Western coalition warplanes were spotted over the Deir az-Zor area in Syria on December 6, when a Syrian Army camp came under attack. No Russian warplanes were in the region, says the Russian Defense Ministry.
 * Syria’s Forces Have Proof that Their Camp Was Bombed by US-led Coalition Aircraft (VIDEO), South Front/LifeNews, December 10, 2015
 * Soldiers have found the valve of a rocket of western production with an inscription in English, reports LifeNews . (Valve shown in embedded video)
 * The video shows a MS-3A fuze used in Soviet-made 100 mm anti-aircraft shells. This piece cannot be related to the airstrike.

Background

 * 100,000 Civilians under ISIS Siege in Eastern Syria al-Masdar, December 13, 2015
 * http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/22781 Dec. 2014

Bomb sales to Qatar

 * Where will the Ukrainian bombs explode? - Oriental Review, Dec 8, 2015
 * ''Why does the Qatari Minitry of Defense want to buy enormous arsenal of the air bombs, not only unfit for their aircrafts, but at a price 3 times (!) higher than the market one? (normally OFAB 250-270 is sold at US$700-800 per item)
 * ''The answer is horrifically simple: to make an OFAB 250-270 explode you do not need to drop it from a jet – it can be done right on the ground. Any Qatar-linked terrorist group can drive it to a highly-populated area in Syria and stage a “merciless strike by the Russian aviation”. No doubt the a number of absolutely independent forensic experts would promptly conclude that this type of bomb is widely used by the Russian AF in Syria.

Analysis

 * Did Members of the US-Led Coalition Carry Out an Air Strike to Help ISIS? Russia Implies They Did - Alexander Mercouris, Russia Insider, December 10, 2015
 * ''Russian statement appears to implicate aircraft from two member states of the US led coalition in the air strike on the Syrian military base in Deir az-Zor


 * Destroying Syria to Create Sunnistan Mike Whitney, Counterpunch, December 9. Considers this attack alongside Turkey's moves in Mosul in context of neo-imperial designs to balkanize the Middle East.


 * Coalition Air Attack on the Saeqa Army Base Monitor blog (ACLOS-affiliated)