Category talk:Ukraine

Joining EU Right Away
Poroshenko is now saying the EU agreement will come into full force in November despite agreement with Russia to delay some of it for a year. He is either talking through his hat or he's seriously looking for big trouble. Maybe EU will have the sense to stop it, after all they really DO need their gas for the winter. This man is a menace. EU/IMF is already having to pay his gas bills, it will cost further trillions he doesn't have to get industry up to EU standards before they'll buy anything from him, so he wants to kill his small remaining Russian market??? what does he think people will live on? does he think they'll pay taxes to repay those loans if they have no work? is he planning to finance the whole country from the sale of his chocolate empire which so far nobody wants to buy? KatKan (talk) 19:20, 29 September 2014 (UTC)
 * But it is reported that EU delayed the implementation till the end of 2015. While Russia has market protection measures similarly enacted but delayed. It is unclear what Poroshenko is talking about, seems that such option is not really there, and so it may be an election gimmick. My impression is that media coverage in Ukraine is in such shape that Poroshenko would come out as among the most reasonable men of the land; if there are more reasonable voices, they are not easy to hear.  (Or maybe somebody,   Yatseniuk-type, still believe that EU and NATO is like a big Santa Claus) .  Also (as Russians notes as well), it is quite similar to Yanukovich endgame:   there is a built-up of expectations (finally, that wonderful EU), and rhetoric (those bad Russian terrorists); so if he tries now to put a break, especially prior to elections, he may fly head first through the windshield (they put some guys in the waste bins already, and who knows where this stops; they exercise this, and worst, on social networks, quite massively ) --Resup (talk) 20:31, 29 September 2014 (UTC)

Ukraine
Some strange new and increased taxes, and seems to be a ban on cash transactions over a certain amount (don't know how they'll enforce that). Looks like everything will cost more, at a time the economy is dying [ http://novorossia.today/publications/world/economics/ukrainian-authorities-have-prepared-new-.html already.] Meanwhile, one single source claims to have sketches for a new Novorossyia currency, quite a nice looking money but I don't like their chances of being able to introduce their own.KatKan (talk) 14:10, 22 September 2014 (UTC)
 * seems to be a misprint, one day of war costs about 80 mln (not bln) UAH, which is about $ 6 mln/ day. Ukraine economy appears to be in bad shape, they have to import things (energy from Russia, quality consumer goods from the West), but apart from some chocolate, it appears they can only export to the East, where relations have seriously worsened. So they may have to be supported financially by the West to stay afloat, and satisfy whatever conditions attached to that. --Resup (talk) 12:57, 22 September 2014 (UTC)
 * I don't know much about it, but probably they have some concerns or mistrust of UA Hryvna, there may be some taxes, limitations, conversion fees, sanctions, or other difficulties operating in Hryvna. Even more so in Western currencies; and NR leadership may be under sanctions already. Adopting ruble may be problematic politically. In case of Kosovo, I believe they use euro, not the  Serbian Dinar; -but Novorossia cannot use the euro, and there is no obvious other thing to use --Resup (talk) 12:57, 22 September 2014 (UTC)


 * Hryvna was about 8 to the $ earlier this year now it's around 15, so fast becoming worthless. People in NR don' have any, anyway. The banks are bombed, pensions not paid etc. If they make their own money a least they can pay pensions and wages in it, then people can use that to buy local goods (food mostly).  This does not help pay power and gas bills, nor the taxes Kiev would still expect to get. Local banks, once reopened, would have to be prepared to handle the new money. It's complicated. KatKan (talk) 14:10, 22 September 2014 (UTC)

Novorossia
Disabled war veterans receive benefits in accordance with the disability group from 1125 to 2250 Hryvna, compensation payment for a disabled child will be 1,200 Hryvna per month, payment to a survivor of a breadwinner will be Hryvna 900 per child and 1800 by a total of two or more children | Press Center DNI --Resup (talk) 14:17, 25 September 2014 (UTC)

Elections
OSCE will send up to 1000 observers for the Ukraine elections on October 25. Going on recent comments about Ukrainian laws not applying to them, NR area people may not want to take part in this. This would be a huge mistake... while they are legally p[art of Ukraine they MUST make their voice heard in electing a President. Otherwise they have only themselves to blame if Poroshenko wins, or worse, someone worse than him wins. There is also danger that Pravy Sector idiots get elected locally if they are not opposed...then get to be the masters of "militia"" being allowed in the region under the Special plans. KatKan (talk) 16:05, 22 September 2014 (UTC)


 * May be a hard sell: even Party of Regions (ex-President of Ukraine Yanukovich party, (ex) popular in eastern Ukraine, is reported an intention to boycott elections Our party will not take part in the upcoming elections because a fourth of the country or almost 7 million electors will not be able to vote,” Kolesnikov said. While Igor Strelkov in a recent interview (from Moscow) went even further stating he does not believe in elections as such (this is on the extreme end of the spectrum, but militia folks may share such feelings to some degree). Maybe than somebody has to make a case on elections and why to participate in those directly to the rebels, don't think they would bother reading us... --Resup (talk) 16:44, 22 September 2014 (UTC)


 * Those are supposed to be parliamentary, not presidential elections. Coup with appointments at gunpoint -> Unconstitutional change of Constitution -> Presidential election (months later) -> Prime minister resigns -> Prime minister isn't allowed to resign -> President dismisses parliament -> Parliamentary elections. This is a complete farce and can IMHO only be solved with working out a constitution with all parties involved, have a referendum on that and then start new from there. Pretty much the February 20 (or was it 21) deal between Yanukovic, the Boxer, Yats and the Nazi, and Germany, France and Poland. --CE (talk) 17:08, 22 September 2014 (UTC)
 * It is reported (eg Wikipedia)  that there is nowadays some "Poroshenko block" party (with Klichko-the-boxer's Udar now part of it,) and that this block has 45% of the vote in latest opinion poll. The rest of the pack are on the margins, with Radical Party of Lyashko,   the "no sponsors, oligarchs or deputies" party next at 13%  (I think that's the same guy who reported on a German crematorium in the  ATO zone) --Resup (talk) 17:54, 22 September 2014 (UTC)
 * The crematorium is real. There are several of them in fact. They belong to the department that rounds up and destroys stray animals. It is not impossible some hospital has one for dealing with amputated limbs and contaminated materials (rather than having them dumped in a forest somewhere). Anyway why don't they use this for their campaign? demand the truth and provide evidence, of how many soldiers actually DID die? let the nation decide on FACTS who did right? I do not believe total 3000 dead, there's more than 400 from Transcarpathia alone... which nobody even knows has been dragged in to fight. KatKan (talk) 18:33, 22 September 2014 (UTC)
 * Plotniskii, Purgin: no elections to Rada in Novorossia; will have own elections, sometime from November to the end of the year --Resup (talk) 18:15, 22 September 2014 (UTC)
 * I've seen October, November and December dates for this... from the "Group". If it's to be NR elections, they themselves should set the date perhaps, and insist OSCE etc go along with their choice. And they need their currency printed ready to go, by then, tho' I can't imagine how you'd go about giving new money to people. Still, there IS the danger that others WILL stand for and get elected to seats that should be NR seats, and then insist they have a right to them ("lawfully democratically elected"). They'd need the international overseers to make sure this doesn't happen, if they don't want to participate. KatKan (talk) 18:33, 22 September 2014 (UTC)

Mystery solved. October 26 is Ukrainian elections for the Rada. December 7 is Kiev's planned election day for Donbass. But Novorossia is planning THEIR elections for November 2, currently drawing up their electoral laws. Meanwhile it seems refugees from Donbass will be disenfranchised from the October elections eve if they wish to vote (which civilian refugees might want to). An electoral official told [ http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/124062 OSCE]  "... those from Crimea would merely have to produce a national ID card, whilst those from Donbas would in addition have to prove they currently reside in the region. The voting rights of IDPs from Crimea are addressed under Ukrainian legislation, whilst those of IDPs from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions are not yet defined by law." Also nobody yet has clarified if "Donetsk and Luhansk" apply to those cities only, to all NR held territory, or to those two whole oblasts. KatKan (talk) 03:25, 24 September 2014 (UTC)

According to OSCE the Ukrainian government is planning to set up- voting facilities in Russian refugee camp, so Ukrainians there can vote. This will be interesting, as it makes it harder to disenfranchise former Donbass residents, some of whom may not prefer Donbass to become Novorossiya. On the other hand, it allows "refugees" to vote for the D and L oblasts, people the NR don't want, and Kiev to then claim these are the official legal representatives. So it's getting messier every day. KatKan (talk) 08:12, 26 September 2014 (UTC)
 * Ukraine elections and Novorossia elections are on different days, and (presumably) based on different candidates, or parties, lists. There needs to be a rule on who can vote and normally some voters lists. All of that needs to be prepared and printed in advance. Unclear what will be on offer for the refugees to vote for (both votes? Only one?). Also, they are located throughout Russia, not just in a few centers; and majority of them  do not have   refugee status officially, unclear whether all of them can vote. In Russia there used to be "propiska' 'прописка', which is now officially not there, but it is replaced by  registration  by place of residence which, IMHO, is the same. While in Ukraine, there is   no "propiska". Russian wikipedia says: Legally "propiska' was canceled ... by the adoption of the Law of Ukraine of 11.12.2003 № 1382-IV «On freedom of movement and free choice of place of residence in Ukraine." This law introduced  'walk-in' registration by place of residence instead of  "propiska":  for registration it is sufficient to present citizen's written declaration,  passport, the receipt of payment of the state fee, two copies of the coupon of withdrawal from registration (but that may be impossible for a refugee); registration authorities have no right to refuse to register. So, out of some 2 millions of Ukrainians in Russia, with around 870 K from affected areas, it is unclear who can vote for what (and for Novorossia vote, who is Novorossia citizens? If this is a 'new Russian world', can any Russian, --say currently residing in Antarktida, in a diaspora, or not having a 'propiska', vote? ). --Resup (talk) 12:36, 26 September 2014 (UTC)
 * On 25 September, DNR election committee head Roman Liagin (Роман Лягин ) gave some answers about 2 November elections in DNR. Answers are not provided there, so the only info is the name of the election committee head, and election date. --Resup (talk) 13:25, 26 September 2014 (UTC)

"Stopping Ukraine's War"
Poland's PM: Ukraine's War Must Be Stopped Now. He goes on to advocate escalating Ukraine's war now to final victory, no mention of the various costs except the implication that none of them is great enough to argue against pushing the fight. What he implies this will stop is, rather, a predicted new World War. Maybe what he means is winning of all of Ukraine for the Oceania side (or ruining it for the Eurasian side at least) will better place that side for the coming war. I guess they're hoping to make it so lopsided and hopeless it won't even take off, and the few remaining world governments - including Russia - will slowly be gobbled up by 'the empire' to start really paying itself back for all these optional catastrophes. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:42, 3 September 2014 (UTC)

In that sense, a section for NATO and others' moves to "stopping Ukraine's War." --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:42, 3 September 2014 (UTC)


 * "War is peace", George Orwell, 1984 (1949). --Resup (talk) 06:16, 11 September 2014 (UTC)

US plannimg NATO exercises in Ukraine in 2 weeks:

CRAZY. In the middle of a war they expect soldiers from 10 countries to go and play war games. "Focused on peacekeeping, it will include command post drills, patrolling and dealing with improvised explosive devices. "???? there is no peace to keep and no improvised explosive devices. Did I say crazy? KatKan (talk) 08:19, 3 September 2014 (UTC)


 * Hm... Just wondering, can the Mongolian Army join exercise? This looks to be for the Western media consumption.  --Resup (talk) 08:28, 3 September 2014 (UTC)f
 * No, read the story. It was planned for June but had to be put off. Now they want to do it as sabre-rattling to scare Russia. Or some such stupidity. KatKan (talk) 09:04, 3 September 2014 (UTC)

Peace Talks
(forthcoming)

The latest is, contact group will meet 1 September in Minsk. The meeting will be attended by representatives of Ukraine, Russia and OSCE, and proclaimed the People's Republic of Donetsk --Resup (talk) 04:59, 1 September 2014 (UTC)

Signed protocol of the contact group meeting is published. --Resup (talk) 15:05, 7 September 2014 (UTC)

Ukraine Rada adopts  special order of local governance in some areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions  that, according to the law, will be additionally specified by parliament. The law will come into effect on the specified territories under the rule of local governments that will be elected on Dec. 7. The state obliges to guarantee the use of Russian and other local languages in these areas. It will also subsidize the development of the territories at a special budget line. The state also obliges to help these areas to in cross-border cooperation with bordering regions of Russia. The local authorities will be allowed to create “local militia units” for keeping of public order, the law said. The second bill will give an amnesty to rebels acting in Donetsk and Luhansk regions since Feb. 22, except those who have committed serious crimes.

Purgin: Novorossia does not agree on status-quo front lines. They consider those temporary and fluid, and can only agree on borders of the whole Donetsk and Luhansk regions. They are ready to discuss economic and social relations with Kiev. But joint decisions with Kiev of political issues in Novorossia is not acceptable. "joint political constructions are not acceptable, either as federation or in any other way". --Resup (talk) 12:09, 16 September 2014 (UTC)

Kuchma goes to Minsk on 19 September. (In the past, ) OSCE, Zurabov (Russian ambassador to Ukraine), and "terrorist organisations 'DNR' and 'LNR' " also took part in Minsk meeting. --Resup (talk) 13:22, 18 September 2014 (UTC)

A memorandum was signed,   specifying  disengagement steps. Within one day, heavy weapons to be moved from front line; deployment of military hardware in residential areas banned; OSCE observes along entire front line; military planes and drones flights over Novorossia banned. Status of LNR and DNR not discussed, the issue remains; POW exchanges expected to continue. Rebels supported the memorandum. --Resup (talk) 23:40, 19 September 2014 (UTC)

How Kiev Sees It
Tymchuk is his new blog gives away a lot between the lines about what the are thinking about how to mess up Novorossia.
 * Novorossia military commanders, like Mozgovoi, also seem to continue thinking in negative ways and not trusting ceasefire ... Hope it will stay at a talking level... And Tymchuk does not come across as realistic in his assessments.

They want to build fortifications to keep them in.
 * This may be unrealistic to implement. USA cannot do it with Mexico, there chances are not better. If there is no fighting, there is no point; if there IS fighting, it is quickly back to heavy fighting, and fortification will not stop it.

Also seems to think the militia will be under the control of local councils in a way that seems he thinks those will NOT be under NR control.
 * At the moment, the real power in NR is militia, and political power is either the same or at least not in disagreement. Likely it will stay that way, or slowly evolve. Attempt to change it quickly or forcefully will either fail as some empty talk, or may lead to unintended outcome of NR military commanders taking more power and deciding things based on military, rather than political, considerations (and at this time, they are doubtful of ceasefire and suspect it is a trick to stop them moving West, like all the way to Kiev ).

And the "lustration" is clearly designed to remove any pro-Russian or pro-Donbass or pro-Party of Regions people.
 * I do not really understand lustration, but it seems to me that lustration is like continuation of maidan, by other means, and what it will lead to in practice is not too clear. There are other areas in Eastern Ukraine, with quite strong Russian connections, and there is Western Ukraine, which is not the same as Kiev; and there are oligarchs who have money and so are the real power . Can't say how all of that may end up, especially if maidan-style determined.

This does not look good. Nor does the 3-year bit. What happens in year 4? KatKan (talk) 01:22, 24 September 2014 (UTC)
 * Does not look too good (not just NR but also the rest of Ukraine), indeed. And 3 years sounds like long into the future; there was a talk on reversing special rule on the next day after it was voted by Rada; I read somewhere that there are two versions of the law (differing on how special rule area is determines -either by another Rada law, or by some anti-terrosrist Tsar' ; and as I understand, neither version is signed yet to become a law of the land). NR takes the view that what happens in Ukraine is happening in a foreign land; it's not ideal, but may be hard to change quickly.  --Resup (talk) 02:38, 24 September 2014 (UTC)

It is announced  that President Poroshenko signed a decree "On urgent measures on defending Ukraine and strengthening its defense capabilities" (President of Ukraine web site was quoted; do not see it there at this time). It is reported that what's involved is a change of military doctrine, revision of non-block status, and increased cooperation with NATO (including request for a military assistance from USA and UK) ; parts of the new decree are secret. Also it includes demarcation and temporary closure of the border with Russia. According to Novorossia, no chance of this to be implemented in Novorossia. --Resup (talk) 08:04, 25 September 2014 (UTC)

Still no "urgent measures.." document on President Poroshenko site, but  there is "Strategy of reforms 2020" the goal is to conduct reforms to apply for EU membership in 2020. "Security of the State, businesses, and citizens" is one of the three main reforms directions. It is curious that there is heavy linkage of reforms with the EU membership, not just reforms for the Glory of Ukraine, and we will see about memberships. (For Ukraine to decide,--- but as a part of it, I would consult Bulgaria, comparable economy and mentality, whether EU membership made them happy; and normal folks, not oligarchs, who lived by themselves in the EU--how happy were they there; whether or not this will change the outcome, it may give a level of detail to the perspective, which currently appears missing). --Resup (talk) 13:05, 25 September 2014 (UTC)

DNR
Aleksandr Zakharchenko, PM. interview, 8 September. Signatory of the ceasefire agreement.

Vladimir Kononov, DM interview, 19 Sept 2014

LNR
Ihor Plotnytskiy, President Signatory of the ceasefire agreement.

Mozgovoi
Mozgovoi on Novorosssia, DNR, LNR, elections google translate of the part  on elections: "... And you, gentlemen, politicians and those who think they are almost the last resort, and they know better than everyone ... so I will answer. Learn to listen to the people, for which you so vehemently tear your throats and shake the air with false words. Surely you did not understand that your time is gone and I hope forever. So deep dipping the people in your diplomatic overtures to dirt as it was before - will no longer work. We are not your property, no matter how you would like it to be the opposite ...

Now you plan to hold elections. Somehow, together with Ukraine, strange is not it? Moreover, the Ukrainian side is already preparing everything necessary for their implementation. Including candidates. It would not be bad to get acquainted with the entire list of candidates, with the financial side of the question. It has been no election so far which have been held for free. Or there are sponsors of the event already? I wonder who .... is it not, accidentally, Viktor Fedorovich (Yanukovych?), or maybe Renat Leonidovich (Ahmetov?)?"

Also, a video interview, just about everything: "that spirit in our hearts, is enough to 'infect' the entire world with freedom, justice and conscience"

Bezler ("Бес")
Bezler

Petrovskii ("Хмурый) ("Gloomy")
(One of the two generals, the other is Bezler)

. --Resup (talk) 14:54, 25 September 2014 (UTC)

Lviv Mayor message
As I recall, this Lviv Mayor interview was posted by the rebels awhile ago. Unfortunately, in the hindsight, his pro-peace stance was not realized by the developments on the ground, still there is a strong message which still remains. Andrey Sadovyi, Lviv Mayor, 2 March 2014 " (3:18) "Yes, we are all to blame that during the period of independence (of 23 years), we were unable to build the country of our dreams. But in the future, this task can only solved by you and us together. Neither Moscow, nor Brussels, nor Washington will not do it for us. Let's see eye to eye, let's see that we are soulmates/are from the same family, and not let the hatred to enter our hearts ...Our strength is in unity "  (And in the beginning, he reminds that Lviv changed hands 7 times in the last 100 years). --Resup (talk) 17:27, 25 September 2014 (UTC)

Public Starts Protests
There seems to be a small groundswell of public protest about the war, in various cities. Red Sector seems to be there to threaten them each time. Only small groups but organized by someone, to be happening in several towns at once. This won't expand into another Maidan, but it's bout time "they" started explaining to the people why so many boys are not coming home. The can't keep it quiet for another 4 weeks. Meanwhile they have run out of prisoners and are collecting random people to exchange for prisoners.KatKan (talk) 18:30, 29 September 2014 (UTC)

Also, on the topic of community organizers, according to Attorney General of Ukraine Yarema, the People, = prosecuting attorney of Dnepropetrovsk, was attacked by unknowns from the Liustration Committee. Furthermore, according to Yarema, the liustration law is unlawful. --Resup (talk) 14:01, 30 September 2014 (UTC)

Rada Elections 2014
Nestor Shufrich, a Rada deputy (Party of Regions), participating in elections as a member of "Opposition block, " was beaten today in Odessa, by Right Sector and "Maidan self-defense." He was with his colleague Nikolai Skorik. --Resup (talk) 20:15, 30 September 2014 (UTC)

Novorossiya Sold Out??
Poroshenko has dismissed 12 of HIS district administrators in the Luhansk area. They seem to be replaced by nobody, and it is too early to dismiss them to be replaced by "special status" NR reps. Bigger problem is, the official Governor since September 18 is Gennadiy Moskal. Yep the very same Gennadiy Moskal who was chairman of the committee "investigating" the snipers at Maidan. Deputy head of the SBU. THAT Moskal.
 * Regarding Maidan investigation, he says in an interview posted on his web site, that it was a special operation of SBU and police, with snipers shooting at both sides. (Is it a wrong explanation? I don't know) --Resup (talk) 05:04, 30 September 2014 (UTC)

Who now also says he expects 26 Luhansk area settlements to be returned to Kiev, and someone thinks will be able to [ https://news.pn/en/RussiaInvadedUkraine/114585 "return Luhansk to Ukraine"] No law about Special Status has been made yet, and Poroshenko is now talking of never making one...just general decentralisation. He says such laws do not exist. And there are plans to NOT FINANCE the separatist areas at all. KatKan (talk) 21:05, 29 September 2014 (UTC)

Well, it looks fairly certain that the real effect of that will be Novorossia becoming defacto independent with strong ties to Russia, following Abhazia-type scenario. (And actually, it may be worth, since   boundaries are  not defined here). Probably we will know something better after the elections, or when something real will start; right now, as they say, he has seven Fridays every single week, and   creates even more mess than there is already. Novorossia will keep some small-to medium skirmishes and not pay much attention otherwise. --Resup (talk) 21:55, 29 September 2014 (UTC)

If he really wants not to avoid Abhazia ( or Makhno), his best bet is to fully disengage, withdraw troops (or reach a consent), and let people stop the shooting nonsense, calm down, and start going about their normal lives and viewing things in   positive light. He cannot impose his authority on the rebels now, neither softly (nobody will  believe, and nobody will obey ), nor by force (he lost that one). Hopefully it is just some election noise right now. But if he (or EU) really believes such reversal will work, well, it won't, it will just start another circle of the same thing we have seen already. Unfortunately, the role of EU and US so far was mostly contributing to the problem (e.g. by supporting unrealistic expectations under dubious game play), rather than contributing to resolving anything. --Resup (talk) 22:59, 29 September 2014 (UTC)

Gennadii Moskal', if judged by release of Luhansk administration, dated 22 September sounds quite reasonable, appears focused on needs of the part of the region controlled by Ukraine, 'soft' approach, no Napoleonic ambitions reported. So, like in the Maidan warm-up routine, " the one who does not jump, is Moskal'". He is an ex-cop. If he is a protege' of a powerful player, it is good to know, as it may determine his real game; so far, have not seen claims to that effect. So far, seems quite boring--which is kind of good. --Resup (talk) 04:05, 30 September 2014 (UTC)

Ceasefire Offered
Poroshenko announces ceasefire, Putin denies it. "Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko says he has agreed with Russian President Putin by phone on a "ceasefire process" for the east. His office initially reported that a "permanent ceasefire" had been agreed but later revised its statement. The Kremlin stressed Mr Putin had not agreed to a ceasefire as Russia was not party to the conflict." according to BBC news. But "A rebel spokesman told the same agency the rebels did not believe Mr Poroshenko was in complete control over Ukrainian forces in the east." and of course they yet to ask Donbass about their views. Still, it is steps in the right direction. KatKan (talk) 11:18, 3 September 2014 (UTC)


 * Rebels " Poroshenko cheated the investors world-wide " (big jump in indexes reported). "Announcement on Poroshenko web site about ceasefire later proved to be not true" --Resup (talk) 12:48, 3 September 2014 (UTC)


 * Lol on this move. Not a step in any direction except pretending Russia is who you ask for a ceasefire. Many will agree with that, or get mad when Putin doesn't agree to ... what? Invade Ukraine to force down the rebellion themselves? Not eddressing the Ukrainian people they've dismissed as inhumans fit only to be crushed, is a reaffirmation of all steps made in that spirit. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:53, 3 September 2014 (UTC)

What section was this? A lot of misplaced-seeming stuff and section proliferation ... I'd rather have that than stifle discussion by being a jerk, but ... --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:53, 3 September 2014 (UTC)

Itar-Tass:Putin proposes 7 item plan, first step is cessation of active military advance operations on Donetsk and Lugansk directions] --Resup (talk) 13:58, 3 September 2014 (UTC)

Itar-Tass (English) Putin says agreed with Poroshenko plan of action to settle situation in Ukraine--Resup (talk) 14:04, 3 September 2014 (UTC)


 * Okay, that makes sense. Both can agree that fighters should do this or that, and it's hoped the relevant parties can agree. Putin just isn't one of them. Although he's clearly got some kind of influence. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:27, 3 September 2014 (UTC)

Ceasefire from 19:00 Moscow time signed. 12 point agreement. --Resup (talk) 14:14, 5 September 2014 (UTC)

05.09.2014 16:10 Press office of President Statement of President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko

My international negotiations in Brussels and Minsk demonstrated a powerful request for peaceful political-diplomatic settlement of the conflict in the Donbas. The same mood dominated during my meetings with global leaders at the NATO Summit in Wales.

The entire world strives for peace, the entire Ukraine strives for peace, including millions of Donbas residents.

The highest value is human life. We must do everything possible and impossible to terminate bloodshed and put an end to people's suffering.

Taking into account the call for ceasefire of President of Russia Vladimir Putin addressed to the heads of illegal armed groups of the Donbas and the signature of the protocol at the meeting of Trilateral contact group on the implementation of the Peace plan of the President of Ukraine, I order the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to cease fire starting from 18:00, September 5.

I also instruct the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine to ensure jointly with the OSCE an efficient international control over the compliance with the ceasefire regime which must be exclusively bilateral.

I hope that these agreements, including ceasefire and liberation of hostages, will be strictly observed. --Resup (talk) 14:14, 5 September 2014 (UTC)

"Minsk agreement on ceasefire will be observed, but it will be annulled if at least one shot from the Kiev side can be heard, " stated on the phone call to RIA Novosti press-secretary of vice-PM of Donetsk Republic Andrei Purgin. --Resup (talk) 14:19, 5 September 2014 (UTC) Минская договоренность о прекращении огня будет соблюдаться, но его аннулируют, если прозвучит хоть один выстрел со стороны Киева, заявил по телефону РИА Новости пресс-секретарь вице-премьера ДНР Андрея Пургина.

Rebels sound very concerned with by hardware and troop moves by UAF, which may restart hostilities. Rebels: " Urgent information. 32 imported tanks gone on Debalcevo, 15 Shilka entered the tank unit Artemevska, 7 Tochka-U, 6 Grads plus 1 Smerch accompanied by 13 tanks,also imported. Located on  Slavyansk- Kramators  site accompanied by 13 imported tanks . On the road from Mironovka to  Debalcevo, a column with all sorts of armor extends for 3-4 kilometers"  --Resup (talk) 20:53, 6 September 2014 (UTC)

As the cease-fire is hailed as a victory for Putin, his alleged proxies allegedly violated it just 30 hours in. Reuters report says artillery east of Mariupol pounded the city, requiring troops to head that way. No word on casualties, perhaps none. No one could really see who was firing or know why. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:57, 6 September 2014 (UTC)
 * Mariupol is strategically important port, + metal works plant, mostly pro-Russian civilians, and mostly controlled by UAF. DNRF are in Talokovka, to the NNE from Mariupol. These gives map of actions, and explanation in Russian of the sort that if they give us a headache somewhere, we will give a headache of our choosing. --Resup (talk) 02:35, 7 September 2014 (UTC)

Vladimir Kononov, DNR Defence Minister, lists ceasefire violations by UAF: under Gorlovka; Telmanovo (senseless takeover by UAF), sniper fire here and there; full Grad volley (=40) from Vasilievka to Alexandrovka. 10 DNRF wounded, 2 seriously. "Regarding heavy hardware move under Gorlovka, this will force me to order fire to kill" --Resup (talk) 01:57, 7 September 2014 (UTC)

Overview of September 6 events by blogger Кассад (eng. Cassad or Kassad), posted on rebels site. Long but may be google translated. --Resup (talk) 10:43, 7 September 2014 (UTC)

Russian blogger El'-Murid (who's 2012 blogging was mostly on Syria) expresses concerns that ceasefire may not last, since UAF troops are not withdrawn to rebel region's border --Resup (talk) 18:40, 7 September 2014 (UTC)
 * Of course it won't last. It was to shut up NATO and to give everyone a chance to regroup. It's been broken a bit already but carefully, so it doesn't get fully broken. A lot of the clauses were terribly vague too, "certain groups"  and so on. Nothing to say even who the signatories are, to be in a position to sign. Weird. At least in Luhansk they're taking the opportunity to fix some power and water supply. KatKan (talk) 19:51, 7 September 2014 (UTC)


 * Vicious report about Aidar actions today (wounded or killed civilians, a rape, one negotiator killed and 5 more taken hostage were reported)  --Resup (talk) 21:27, 7 September 2014 (UTC)


 * Meanwhile in Perevalsk in Luhansk, two videos of an impromptu military parade
 * and
 * they really need to take those tanks in for a service. They will be needing them again soon. KatKan (talk) 22:44, 7 September 2014 (UTC)

Quoted by rebels blogger 'Vadim Petrov' (aka 'coach field-marshal') raises concern about situation on the ground. He shows areas of concern on a map, and talks over it. In a number of places, UAF takes control over territory, changing situation on the ground in dangerous ways (e.g. rebels may be encircled or loose control in some key areas). Also in some places, UAF cauldron remains, with situation not being resolved.

3:21 Ukraine fighters group emerged in Novolaspa-Starolaspa-Granitnoe triangle, rebels at Staroignatovskoe are in danger of being encircled.

4:04 north of Talakovka (NE of Mariupol) UAF move armor, dig in, moving out of Mariuopol

6:48 West of Dokuchaevsk: big territory controlled by unblocked UAF

8:26 airport near Donetsk still controlled by UAF (there were reports of no gas and electricity still in Donetsk, hope to restore Saturday)

9:41 Gorlovka (rebel-controled) is regularly shelled, lots of proofs of that "Where is Ruban? Where is Purgin? WTH ?"

10: 28 Nearby Debaltsevo, controlled by UAF (I recall reports of lots of armor there). Unlike Gorlovka, no pressure applied there. No cauldron there either.

11:35 Toshkovka, Kalinovo, Belaia Gora--taken by UAF.

.--Resup (talk) 02:27, 10 September 2014 (UTC)

Rebels allege an intelligence report from Kharkov. On 9 September, two Hercules planes delivered three foreign Grad-equivalent systems, two LAROM's (Romania) and one Teruel-3 (Spain). Grads delivery. Rebels also allege that they borrowed two Smerch's from UAF for some joyride of theirs. --Resup (talk) 02:34, 10 September 2014 (UTC)

Rebels provide videos of ceasefire violations in Donetsk and Mariuopol. The first video shows grad damage to houses in a village Spartak, north outskirt of Donetsk, and shelling damage in Kiev's region of Donetsk (northern Donetsk) --Resup (talk) 10:18, 10 September 2014 (UTC)

Speech of the President Poroshenko at the meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers. Interpretation of the meaning of signed in Minsk protocol is towards the end. I doubt that the rebels have the same interpreatation, they essentially view the protocol as a way to peacefully gain some sort of independence for the whole region of Donbas. This dispute is best resolved by voting, not by arms. (Compare with the Scotland story, and updates presented by BBC). --Resup (talk) 14:38, 10 September 2014 (UTC)

President Poroshenko delivered statements on special status for districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions and new world security strategy at Yalta European Strategy meeting held not in Crimea but in Kyiv. 'Special status' appears to be modeled on Poland's Voivodeships (provinces). Details are not clear; I guess something like this may work (the problem is that rebels have zero trust in Kyiv governance). --Resup (talk) 12:41, 12 September 2014 (UTC)

Igor Plotnitsky : DNR and LNR may start negotiation of political status with Kyiv 'soon'.

Second humanitarian convoy, to Luhansk, is scheduled on 13 September. --Resup (talk) 13:02, 12 September 2014 (UTC)

Peace Talks-Related Talk
Russia's Federal migration service number: 2 million Ukrainians are currently in Russia. --Resup (talk) 11:36, 1 September 2014 (UTC)

Many/most rebel fighters are past wars veterans (Strelkov is an examples). There is not much meaningful activity for them on offer. So, giving some fight, for something they see as goodish, kind of makes sense for them. --Resup (talk) 11:41, 1 September 2014 (UTC)

Rebels voiced their conditions: special status for their territory, the so-called "anti-terrorist operation" (as of now conducted with tanks, helicopters, warplanes, and artillery) stopped, and amnesty for rebel forces. --Resup (talk) 11:50, 1 September 2014 (UTC)
 * Rebels deny agreeing to special status for territory, say they want an 'independent state formation' .--Resup (talk) 20:10, 2 September 2014 (UTC)

Economic consequences for Donbas and Lugansk, and other places having manufacturing, joining EU may have big downside. If EU manufacturing standards are adopted, since their manufacturing is not following EU standards, and switching to EU standard is economically not viable. Those factories than shall shut down, or continue regardless but sell their stuff to the East. --Resup (talk) 11:57, 1 September 2014 (UTC)


 * Heavy industry includes military aircraft, tanks an all sorts of guns (eg the Antonov is their design and manufacture). Ukraine is the 10th largest arms manufacturer in the world, and has supplied a lot countries the "West" is not keen to see armed. This is one big reason they want control of Ukraine. If they're in EU or NATO they're restricted in where they can sell. At the same time, "modernisation of industry would be done with western money in exchange for part ownership. Same as oil and gas, which US companies are already in. It's all about money. win-lose. KatKan (talk) 13:12, 1 September 2014 (UTC)


 * Nato should not be involved, everybody in Russia will have sincere hard feelings about this, and there is no need to feed such feelings. --Resup (talk) 13:29, 1 September 2014 (UTC)


 * I am not certain Western modernization will take place; that was not happening in Russia past 1991, in fact what happened is that manufacturing was obliterated and everything sold for scrap. There was no replacement (apart from most crucial areas) --Resup (talk) 13:33, 1 September 2014 (UTC)

Ukraine has about 50% of electricity produced by nuclear power plants. Reactors are of Russian design, and supposed to be fueled according to Russian standards. My understanding (seen in the news but lost reference) is that outside, possibly US made, fuel rods are used. This is not under Russia's warranty, and price tag if someting happens is huge. --Resup (talk) 12:14, 1 September 2014 (UTC)
 * Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe shares Moscow's concern on world nuclear safety --Resup (talk) 12:20, 1 September 2014 (UTC)

I wonder can China play a role, they will be more efficient in restoring certain things (like roads, buildings, etc) and USA owes them a lot of money; so if China is allowed to make some profit there, as the US back-payment (and somehow --but unclear how--reducing the US debt), this may be interesting. But hard to see concrete scenario how this may happen in practice. Unfortunately finance is more like gambling than like investment --Resup (talk) 14:19, 1 September 2014 (UTC)


 * China already has investments in Ukraine,including leases on agricultural land, and is buying a lot of military equipment from Ukraine. Closer ties between Ukraine and EU would jeopardize these. If they do any rebuilding it will be on their own account, not with a 3-way deal involving the US. China also does business with Russia, although they are not at all friends. They wouldbe a good neutral choice, but USA won't like it. KatKan (talk) 17:08, 1 September 2014 (UTC)

Actual rebuilding, lead by either Russia or Ukraine, will be rather inefficient with a lot of funding not going on target. Actual work, and managing that work, will go better if outsourced to East and West. If they want to do so, of course. --Resup (talk) 14:45, 1 September 2014 (UTC)


 * Ahem, look at the history of such rebuildings. It is given as foreign aid, or the aid is given in cash on condition the donor country's experts are used. Invariably leads to huge corruption, both in awarding the contracts (cf Halliburton) and in the receiving country. People in positions of power are able to skim off from the aid, or allocate contracts to related companies. In a way such schemes go to, perhaps are designed to, entrench the people in power.


 * I think similar sort of thing is called "the overhead" in the art of academic funding, can go up to 40% of the award. This is not the most wonderful thing, but still it is competitive, transparent, explicit and agreed by all in advance ...All conflicts of interest are also disclosed in advance... The difference with the local custom is that it is not clear in advance who will win the competition --Resup (talk) 18:38, 1 September 2014 (UTC)


 * How do you think today's Ukrainian oligarchs got to be billionaires? they all had a finger in the gas pipeline deals or bought for pennies businesses being privatised when the Soviet broke up. You think they can't find a way to touch rebuilding loans?
 * Anyway only the south east is destroyed. If there is not a very total change of government, they won't bother rebuilding it at all. They'll let the locals get along best they can by themselves. A truly inclusive government could manage it without outside interference. The country is extremely advanced technologically. KatKan (talk) 17:08, 1 September 2014 (UTC)
 * Not bothering with this at all would mean that Russia will have to do it. --Resup (talk) 18:08, 1 September 2014 (UTC)

Kerry suggested a coalition against ISIS, maybe also somebody can put up a coalition for rebuilding Ukraine (with everybody doing some bit of it) --Resup (talk) 15:20, 1 September 2014 (UTC)

Motorolla gunner 'Chervonets' discusses his views on direct (or minimalist representative) democracy, transparency, and accountability, quoting some Concept of Public Security. This is apparently something which started in Gorbachev times, apparently  with  Russian institute of USA and Canada participation, and culminated in 200+ manuscript 'Dead Water', nowadays banned in Russia by a court decision as being 'extremist'. That manuscript appears pretty unreadable vague philosophy with some terminology of control theory (or predictor-corrector computational method) occasionally used here and there. The best account of all that is probably due to Chervonets, why is that I and other muzhiks ride a bicycle Ukraine, while my public servants ride a Porsche Cayenne 4-cycle?--Resup (talk) 12:51, 16 September 2014 (UTC)

Pravyi sector pickets Ukraine President office. Special status for Donbas territories is one of the issues.--Resup (talk) 09:56, 17 September 2014 (UTC)

Davos meeting was reported. OSCE ceasefire was supported. One of the proposals is a meeting in Geneva involving Ukraine, Russia, EU, US. That idea was earlier circulated by Ukraine (Yatseniuk and co). Well, major unresolved issue is territory where special status applies. And a major part of why this is not resolved, among outside of Donbas parties, may be economic (including natural resources) issues. While  Donbas rebels desire self-governance, following  the military outcome and their sacrifices. It appears that rebels are not part of the proposed Geneva meeting; if so, it is questionable what result can be realistic achieved: rebels will not accept partial self-governance. But self-governance implies that rebels will gain control over economic issues, and the other parties in Geneva will not agree to that. Unless they somehow all decide to collaborate on all of the issues, both economic and political, to find an acceptable solution. --Resup (talk) 17:10, 17 September 2014 (UTC)


 * Found that guest list on twitter. Interesting, isn't it. Doesn't seem like getting rid of Oligarchy was high on the agenda. ;o) --CE (talk) 17:23, 17 September 2014 (UTC)

Kononov ("tsar"), DNR DM, comments on current state of ceasefire. Over 100 violations by UAF logged. In Donetsk airport, UAF is fully blocked, no supplies; cannot be attacked due to ceasefire but have no choice but to surrender. UAF attack capabilities upgrades noted; about 10 Tochka U in a career near Volnovakha; from Slavyansk and Kramatork, about  6 Tochka U. Also howitzer batteries, modernized tanks from Warsaw pact countries. Infrared vision equipment with friend or foe recognition, automatic aiming (such modernized T72 tank captured, presumed to be upgraded outside of Ukraine in a Warsaw pact country). Pow exchange to continue, 50 for 50 expected. Previously, from 73 handed to Novorossia POWs, 60 had to be hospitalized with serious injuries in captivity (broken bones, kidney injuries). Airport area, foreign fighters (Albania, Poland) alleged but not confirmed. Well-trained sharp shooters with hot spot experience present. Zhdanovka: controlled by UAF, surrounded (up to 1500 UAF), active military actions not taken due to ceasefire. Mariupol: no comment. ON MH17, Kononov stated his education at aviation and technical college of civilian aviation (aircraft engine mechanic). Konov shared his opinion ("based on black boxes (?) and wreckage condition") that MH17 was downed by Buk system. He stated that the rebels did not have Buk at the time and do not have it now. He continued that at this height, only Buk can do it in his opinion. --Resup (talk) 12:20, 20 September 2014 (UTC)


 * Here is a version with English subtitles. Most of the MH17 comments are at the very end. In addition to Resup's summary he says a bit earlier that they know who shot it down, but nobody would want to reveal it "specifically". Later he not only says they have and had no BUK in the DPR, but also explicitly that it was downed "from UA side" (if the subtitles are correct). --CE (talk) 13:47, 21 September 2014 (UTC)

Normandy format talks. Quoting Valerii Chalyi, an assistant head of the administration of the President of Ukraine, interview to "Shuster live" program: "we have reached an agreement with the USA President Barack Obama, that the USA will be involved in this negotiation format. " 'Chalyi noted the importance of peace talks in the 'Normandy format", that is with participation of Ukraine, France, Germany, and the Russian Federation ' (yes, these days it is Germany which has the resources, ---but what happened to the Great Britain ???  ).  --Resup (talk) 13:52, 20 September 2014 (UTC)
 * Scotland: rebels lost, 45: 55 (full-time, -game is over).
 * OSCE published the memorandum, (as of now, in Russian). Detailed distanced for heavy weapons to be moved given, e.g. 70 km for Smerch, tactical missiles (Tochka U ) 120 km. (Well, finally something sensible on the technical side is signed). --Resup (talk) 14:05, 20 September 2014 (UTC)

Sanctions
Sanctions may be not a good idea.

(a) They will not change situation on the ground. What was happening may continue to happen by same methods for same reasons, for as long as the conflict is not resolved.

(b) If Russia is denied technology or equipment, it will develop it itself, but also it will lead to further polarization into East and West which may be fairly stable and last for a long time.

(c) There is no moral superiority, and elevated sanctions talk at least appears to be self-serving.

--Resup (talk) 12:07, 6 September 2014 (UTC)

BBC: BBC: it is the use of economic power, which according to Barack Obama and David Cameron has forced Vladimir Putin to back a deal to stop the fighting in Ukraine.

No, it is not. --Resup (talk) 14:33, 6 September 2014 (UTC)

Arseniy Yatsenyuk: sanctions were utterly useless (frazeologism 'Как мёртвому припарки' is literally 'as poultices for a dead') --Resup (talk) 23:47, 6 September 2014 (UTC)

New EU sanctions from 12 September. I really have no clue what (/ if /) are those guys thinking. And on the other hand, they also want a 3 way meeting on gas in Berlin on 20 September; apart from some carbon footprint, no clue what do they expect to come out of such a meeting.

I believe currently Ukraine got free trade conditions with respect to Custom Union or CIS members. It is unresolved how this will change with Ukraine under association agreement with EU. But Putin in Minsk clearly stated that Ukraine may end up to be out of the free trade and into the same regime as the rest of EU. Both tariffs and technical standards remain unresolved issues. There is some common ground, but on technical standards only.

. --Resup (talk) 14:18, 11 September 2014 (UTC)

In the meantime, Presidents of Russia, China, and Mongolia are doing a photo-op in Tajikistan... --Resup (talk) 17:26, 11 September 2014 (UTC)

US Sanctions. If they stay, security cooperation is under question mark. --Resup (talk) 14:32, 12 September 2014 (UTC)

Ukraine-Konflikt: Merkel hält an Sanktionen gegen Russland fest "Deutschlands erste Kanzlerin Früher war sie "Kohls Mädchen", heute ist sie die mächtigste Frau Deutschlands: Angela Merkel hat sich an der Männerriege der Union vorbei an die Spitze der Regierung gekämpft. Anhänger schätzen ihre abwägende Art, Kritiker schmähen sie als Zauderin, " according to Spiegel. --Resup (talk) 18:01, 29 September 2014 (UTC)

USA
It is reported that US Ambassador to Ukraine Jeffrey Payette announced that in the near future, a group of USA military advisers will be deployed in Ukraine Guardian: " As the New York Times’s Mark Landler detailed, White House has “an extremely narrow definition of combat … a definition rejected by virtually every military expert.” According to the Obama administration, the 1600 “military advisers” that have steadily been flowing in Iraq fall outside this definition, despite the fact that “military advisers” can be: embedded with Iraqi troops; carry weapons; fire their weapons if fired upon; and call in airstrikes. In the bizarro dictionary of war employed by this White House, none of that qualifies as “combat”. " --Resup (talk) 14:47, 26 September 2014 (UTC)

Academic Matters
(School year starts today).

Russia extends universities admission date for Ukrainian refuges(good, as student admission numbers are down. When they study, no time to run in the fields with Kalshnikovs) --Resup (talk) 11:33, 1 September 2014 (UTC)
 * while, judging by the photo, this school in Lugansk appear to be not quite student-ready... --Resup (talk) 18:16, 1 September 2014 (UTC)

Russia:  'More than 60 thousand Ukrainian pupils went to school in Russia today ' --Resup (talk) 23:47, 1 September 2014 (UTC)

Donetsk National University:more than 18 thousands of undergraduate and postgraduate students have been studying in DonNU including 300 students from foreign countries.

University of Luhansk, listed student number is 30,000; university website is currently down.

Luhansk state medical university: about 300 PhD faculty, around 7000 students

Donetsk National Technical University enrollment 22,000 students

Donetsk National Medical University enrollment 15,000 students.

. --Resup (talk) 03:27, 5 September 2014 (UTC)

Morale Problems for Kiev
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cOmEHiddzw&feature=youtu.be Can someone please see what this says? seems they're having problems. Bit I notice one at least is wearing the shiny new US flak jacket. Bit late now. KatKan (talk) 19:22, 27 August 2014 (UTC)
 * 5 batalion of territorial defense of near-Carpathian region has deserted the ATO operation. (The video has caption of  tsn.ua -Ukrainian news channel in the lower left part of the screen, but youtube video has .by extension somewhere, which would stand for Belorussia). Pushniakov (I believe UAF commander) is involved with negotiations with 'mutineers' (Screen caption says military mutiny).


 * Goolge translate of Russian caption gives:  5 territorial defense battalion of Prikarpattie ( near-Carpathian region) has deserted. It is in full force and left the ATO with arms moving in Delyatyn. Soldiers have been stopped near Znamenka by spetsnaz (UAF). Military authorities lead  negotiations with them. Issue TSN.19 30 for August 27, 2014 --Resup (talk) 18:08, 3 September 2014 (UTC)


 * They left with their weapons. If UAF is surrounded, rebels typically require weapons turned in, before surrounded combatants can leave. --Resup (talk) 18:12, 3 September 2014 (UTC)
 * I just read one where UAF column got surrounded by just 20 guys,by accidentally driving into a dead end. After 2 hours they surrendered. Rebels got 5 tanks and an APC, they let UAF keep enough vehicles to leave with, and let them keep their rifles, so they'd not be accused of desertion. KatKan (talk) 22:04, 3 September 2014 (UTC)


 * Sorry, can't find a section for this, but... last few days am seeing a lot of NAF people in these striped under-shirts. They are Ukrainian paratroop undershirts.  They are also identical to the Russia ones (although the 10 "Russian paratroopers" caught last week were wearing camo ones). So whre did they get a new supply?


 * file photo of uniform http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/uploads/cmimg_12331.jpg

news photo of Zaharchenko sporting the same.

Commander of the 5 battalion was arrested for 2 months, criminal charges filed (disobeying orders, resisting commander's orders, avoiding military duty ), up to 10 years in prison is a possible punishment --Resup (talk) 23:37, 3 September 2014 (UTC)

The only connection to Kiev moral is, there are so many uniforms they can't keep track of who is on which side. KatKan (talk) 18:00, 3 September 2014 (UTC)

Merikov (Мериков),head of regional council of Nikolaev regional administration, answers a question from relatives of Ukrainian soldier. He says that those called for active military duty had about 3.5 months of preparation, and that they were not just sleeping, they carried out military service in Odessa region on the border with near-Dniester, and were engaged managing block-posts and doing some work at military-related factories. --Resup (talk) 23:24, 4 September 2014 (UTC)

Відеозвернення родичів чернігівських бійців 13-го батальйону до Президента України. Video message from relatives of Chernigov 13 battalion fighters to the President of Ukraine). Group of mothers and wives ask Poroshenko in Ukrainian and Russian to bring their sons, husbands back home. They also point out, there was no troop rotation in some 4 months. --Resup (talk) 23:15, 4 September 2014 (UTC)

Road to Novoazovsk
An apparently Russian convoy has made it to Novoazovsk. Seven villages north of there have been taken by "rebels" according to BBC.Com which would mean a huge southern area added to the Republics. They say some 90 Ukies have surrendered (though they seem to have a new vehicle,another USA gift??? KatKan (talk) 19:22, 27 August 2014 (UTC)


 * I rubbed this piece under the noses of a couple of "journalists" today. They are so clueless in their echo chamber, it's actually more frightening than if there were a huge conspiracy. Well, one down to the level of those guys, that is... --CE (talk) 20:38, 27 August 2014 (UTC)

The Mystery of the Tanks

 * NATO has some newish satellite/video game images of "Russian armaments" but the never seem to catch them actually crossing the border. I thought they had better capabilities than that.
 * "Mr Poroshenko cancelled an official trip to Turkey and convened an urgent meeting of his security advisers to deal with what he called the rapidly deteriorating situation in the embattled Donetsk region."
 * in the BBC version "... experts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London" are claiming they've identified a tank which is a T-72 "variant, distinguished by the prominent Kontakt-5 Explosive Reactive Armour (ERA) arrangement - the boxes on the turret front - (which)is commonly referred to by Western sources as the T-72BM. It is operated by the Russian Army in large numbers, but crucially it is not known to have been exported or operated outside of Russia." Oh, except the T-72 was designed and is still built at Kharkiv, including ones with Kontakt-5 turrets. Oh well. Experts. KatKan (talk) 16:19, 29 August 2014 (UTC)


 * New-ish tank production should be in Nizhnii Tagil, Urals, Russia . Not aware of another manufacturer, maybe foreign countries having a license or pirating. Some (older model) tanks may be in former Warsaw Pact countries, and may be shipped to Ukraine, if so desired. There may be some production in Kharkiv. I do not know exact details and models. If there is production in Kharkiv, it may not be in good shape now, in reality, and they may need to come from Russia or from outside (e.g. former Warsaw pact) --Resup (talk) 16:39, 29 August 2014 (UTC)


 * There has been a story a good two weeks ago of 58 T-72 spotted in Hungary on their (short) way to Ukraine. Here is what seems to be an English translation from today of the original August 12 Hungarian article. Here is an August 16 piece on Novorussia News that says Ukraine payed only 10% of the price to an unknown buyer, who payed the full price to Hungary. And here is a strange RIA Novosti piece from yesterday about how the Czech Government doesn't know anything about a batch of 58 T-72 that a private company Excalibur Defense Ltd. purchased from Hungary and "began transporting" into Czech Republic on Monday. WTF? --CE (talk) 18:00, 29 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Hmmm. Just found this three hours old statement from the Czech Ministry of Defense correcting themselves and now saying that they did know about the purchase. According to them, Excalibur Defense Ltd. is the "owner" and "Hungary-based", while the unnamed "end-user" is "a Prague-based enterprise". Other sources say Excalibur is Czech-based. The only Excalibur Defense Ltd. I can find on first look is apparently a work of fiction. --CE (talk) 18:23, 29 August 2014 (UTC)

WOW Hungarian does NOT translate into good English with machine translation. The word order is different. Luckily I am able to read the original. This writer is one of many in Hungary who is having second thoughts about EU and NATO involvement, as they can't really afford it. The story is So, the Defence Equipment Company offered the tanks for sale by tender. The first lot was 58 T-72s manufactured in Belarus. These were bought in March by Excalibur Defense Kft, a company that only exists since October last year and is supposedly wholly owned by a Czech individual. The second tender, in July, was also won by this entity (22 tanks). The company is properly registered with the authorities as an arms dealer. The reserve price was 45,200,000 forints for the 22 tanks, $US188,600 or only $8600 each. Because there was some competition they probably paid a bit more, to win the tender. But the market price is around $100,000 so the question is, why does the Defence Equipment Company sell them so cheaply? one tenth the market price, less than scrap metal price?

"This deal can be called corrupt and fraudulent" they write, "for selling national assets at such a loss.

The only nearby country currently at war is Ukraine, which is suffering serious equipment losses, so we assume that is where the buyer was able to resell them.

The fact is, USA is spending millions daily to equip the Ukrainian military. and has suggested to its NATO allies who happen to have Soviet era war machinery, that they could send these Ukraine's way to help them out. Thus the Allies can rid themselves of the old Soviet armaments, and of course later restock with super expensive modern Western arms, naturally not for scrap prices.

According to some sources, Ukraine would be happy to buy some MIGs to built up her air strength, maybe from Hungary or Poland. Here the Hungarian Defence Equipment Company has a lucky solution -- since we have had 24 MIG 29s for sale since last year.

So this is how Hungary contributes to the mowing down of thousands of Ukrainian civilian lives. Will this be the explanation, sooner or later in the newspapers, for why this sale didn't contribute to balancing the National Budget? because if that was the aim, many an African or Asian nation would have haply paid full price for these armaments".

My thoughts: Excalibur sounds like something the CIA might call a company. On the other hand,there are various oligarchs in Ukraine who are contributing to the "cause", though mostly by running their own private armies nobody has control over.

BUT where did the tanks end up? there is a rich Ukrainian oligarch who used to be a President....... hard to say.

The other translations about " sold 58 tanks through an unnamed agent at only 10% of their market value. The final buyer, which is currently not definitively known, paid a full price for the armored vehicles". are WRONG. They say nothing about what the end buyer paid. They are saying the Hungarian government was complicit in selling the tanks for next to nothing, and implies it was to help Ukraine kill its own civilians, not for some news company to make a killer profit (pardon the pun).

HAHA, comments on the Novorussia story suggest they were bought to be repainted Russian looking so Russia could be blamed for an invasion.

The FIRST Czech statement is correct- they issued no licence for importing tanks into the country, because they were being sent to Ukraine. It was a Hungarian Government website that claimed (or assumed) they were being sent to the Czech Republic. But people saw it on a train just on the border with Ukraine. If the Czechs later changed their statement, that's because someone kicked them. The actual purchaser was an Excalibur incorporated in Hungary but it is part of a complex Excalibur group.

Hungary's down to an Army of about 20,000 or 1/7th what it had in Warsaw Pact days. Heaps of good uniforms available thee if Donbass needs winter uniforms really cheap. They only want ab;out $2 for a MIG so uniforms must be about 50c each.

By coincidence,at the same time, "Russia's largest private crude producer LUKoil has agreed to sell 44 petrol stations in the Czech Republic to Hungarian oil company MOL" another 76 in Hungary and 27 in neighbouring Slovakia to another Hungarian company". LUKoil is getting out of EU because of the sanctions. They also sold 44 Ukrainian stations to an Austrian buyer, because Red Sector kept blockading their stations. KatKan (talk) 08:13, 30 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Latest on the tanks: Russia complained it may be a breach of all sorts of agreements to sell to Ukraine. Hungarian Defence Ministry is making the excuse that the tanks were on the trains NOT to go to Ukraine, but being delivered to a nearby military depot for preparation for sending to Czech Republic. This railhead and depot being in Hungary's EAST and Czech Republic being clear across the country to the WEST, this is nonsense.  So next time they'll just put them in covered waggons, darn that sticky-beak middle class with their smartphones. KatKan (talk) 21:04, 30 August 2014 (UTC)

EXCALIBUR SPEAKS: In a news article an Excalibur director denies he is selling tanks to Ukraine. It's a long story but the meat of it is : Director of Excalibur Defense Kft, Stefan Turay, interviewed by phone, said he's been dealing in tanks for 15 years without any trouble.

He says his company got mixed into this allegation because they just won 2 tenders for Hungarian tanks. But the tanks shown on the train are not ones he bought. His are being taken into the Czech Republic on flat bed trucks, 3 at a time. (The article has a photo of tanks on a flat bed, not geolocatable).

A lot of detail is given of the various permits both from Hungary and from Czech Republic.

Turay states the tanks on the train were being moved to an army depot near that railhead,from another one further west that is being closed dowm. Army spokesmen have said the same, but admit the tanks sold to Excalibur came from the same (closed down) depot.

The article claims the first report was on a pro-Russian far rightwing site, which had just put 2 and 2 together - the recent sales and seeing tanks near the Ukraine border.

Who knows? KatKan (talk) 09:20, 1 September 2014 (UTC)


 * Thanks for the update! Hmm, so at the time of the tank-spotting the first batch of 58 was already sold, and the news out and connected. And then last week the second batch of 22 was sold and started to get delivered to Czech Republic. Kind of makes sense and we have to trust the "pro-Russian right-wing site" (and that label seems to be defendable at least for the first part, given that they show truthful maps about the situation in Donbas) that the photos were made where they claim to have at least a bit of a story remaining. But also sounds a bit like "nothing to see here, here's what we came up with to make you go away". --CE (talk) 10:06, 1 September 2014 (UTC)
 * I am sure the railway images would be geolocatable to where they claim -- people living there would have screamed by now that it's not there. Also both the Army and the Excalibur guy admit there could be tanks on trains visible there. They just give a different reason. This reason may be true. But they could not very well admit to sending them to Ukraine, could they? Meanwhile the 3 on the truck could be anywhere, and nobody there is sitting at the border counting them.
 * In fact, if I were selling tanks illegally, I would take 3 openly to where I had permits to take them. Then bring them back in covered trucks with other goods visible, and take them back again, until the licensed number had been seen to go over. The illegal delivery though is tricky on open flat beds. They'd need to be repacked, too, unless border control on both sides was paid off or otherwise in on it, or they had the right falsified documents. KatKan (talk) 10:27, 1 September 2014 (UTC)

I'm thinking this news was wrong. Ukraine actually has heaps of tanks, they had about 1500 T-72s when the Soviet broke up. They even sold some off, to places like Iraq. Of course a lot are in storage. BUT. There are "third forces" in play, private oligarch armies running around, maybe they need some? and Kiev won't lend them any of course. KatKan (talk) 03:28, 3 September 2014 (UTC)

And now Helicopters for Ukraine
Next in line to help Ukraine with arms is Croatiawhich is trying to get them some helicopters. Once again with the USA sweetener of getting better gear from the US. What good timing! everyone conveniently gets rid of their second-hand old stuff. If Ukraine ever joins NATO they'll have to pay cash,as (a) nobody to pass the junk on to and (b) most will be shot out of the sky by then anyway. Don't know how they still figure this is a god deal for them. KatKan (talk)

6 ready + 6 under repair (in Croatia) multi-purpose  Mi -8 and potentially 15-20 large gunship Mi-24 (borrowed un-repaired from foreign countries) reported in the (crocodiles from ...)  article.--Resup (talk) 17:34, 14 September 2014 (UTC)

Road to Mariupol
The South is about to fall. Ukie forces apparently are going home or surrendering without much fight. In the cities,they still fight house to house.

DPR


 * Volnovakha taken by Novorossiya Armed Forces (NAF); South-Western Cauldron closed off.
 * Yalta (near Mariupol) taken, NAF is now 12 km away from Mariupol.
 * Mariupol - Zaporozhye (Berdyansk) road closed off by NAF. Virtually all settlements around Mariupol appear to be taken by NAF. Mariupol Cauldron closed off.
 * Fighting has crossed the border into Zaporozhye. Saboteur-Reconnaissance Groups (SRG) and guerrillas active inside Zaporozhye’s borders.
 * Ukrainian punitive forces surrendering in the many cauldrons, the rate of surrenders is picking up pace.
 * NAF is pushing outward toward Yasinovataya, Maryinka, Karlovka, Krasnogorovka (west of Donetsk)

AND, the BIGGEST (albeit not fully confirmed) NEWS: Donetsk Airport taken by NAF today.

LPR


 * Lutugino partially controlled by the Militia, very heavy urban combat there, although Rodakovo was lost (plans to retake it shortly).
 * Lyashko appears to be still trapped in Severodonetsk, which is besieged by Mozgovoi’s Brigade (I have no further information since a couple of days ago).
 * LPR has encircled Shchastye and Metallist and is advancing on the Ukrainian positions there, as well as in the north-eastern direction (Stanitsa Luganskaya, which still remains contested).
 * NAF continues to advance on Deblatsevo, taking checkpoints on the outskirts of the city.
 * LPR is planning some major advances in the next few days, hopefully to clean up most of the remaining cauldrons.

from SAKER his info seems to be good. The larger proper military formations, rather than small guerrilla groups is paying off. KatKan (talk) 05:53, 30 August 2014 (UTC)

The oil/gas motive for Russia, EU and USA
I am trying to "follow the money" to see Russia's interest in this war. Taking over Crimea was very profitable for Gazprom.

"Gazprom’s payments for gas transit through Ukraine made in 2012-2013 were expected to cover the period up to January 2015. However, after Gazprom cancelled the discount that used to be given in exchange for the presence of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, the price of gas used to calculate transit rates skyrocketed to $485 per thousand cubic meters." as per Ria Novosti

Apparently, the transit price paid to Ukraine depends on the price of gas that Ukraine gets for its own use. They got a discount price because of the Fleet being stationed there. Now that Crimea has been taken over the discount has stopped. This effectively raised the gas price to $485.50 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas, but a partial discount was negotiated in December. Gazprom charges its European buyers $370 on average. Currently the price to Ukraine is $385.50. Even at $100 not having to give the discount is giving Gazprom many billions in extra profit.

Russia cut off gas supplies to Kiev in June because they are behind with their bill. They are living off stored supplies. Part of the loans Yanukovych had negotiated was to pay off this debt, and indeed may have been a big factor in deciding to take Russian rather than EU loans.

USA hopes to profit by developing local Ukrainian oil and gas supplies, to help ease reliance on Russian gas. Europe is behind this idea as they, too, are very reliant, which means in a poor negotiating position on price. They need to be careful how much they upset Russia with sanctions.KatKan (talk) 01:02, 27 August 2014 (UTC)


 * A brief story but simply explaining the US connections in Ukraine's gas and oil supply situation. Some 55% of Russia's gas exports go through Ukraine, so they fear that closer ties to Europe might cause problems. Ukraine gets paid transit fees for the gas that passes through there. If Novorussia comes into existence Russia might save billions in transit fees for the gas that goes through there. Meanwhile USA wants Ukraine firmly on the EU side, as US companies have contracts for oil exploration in the Donetsk region (Shell) and fracking (Halliburton, fancy that). Europe gets now about 1/3 of their gas from Russia, all through pipes running through Ukraine. They can't be too pushy, for fear of being turned off (as has happened before).


 * The next talks with Ukraine are due in a few weeks.They are a few billion behind with their own bill. They just lost the discount they got for hosting the Russian fleet in Crimea. That should be an interesting meeting. About 60% of Ukraine's own gas is from Russia. They have been accused in the past of syphoning, Winter is coming. Good map in the article. Not shown are 3 gas fields in Luhansk and 7 or 8 further west, all untapped, as well as oil fields in the south. KatKan (talk) 14:10, 29 August 2014 (UTC)


 * I personally think the resources are secondary motives, especially for Russia. But it's an interesting field to explore. As soon as Slavyansk was "liberated", the first fracking preparations went on - because it's in the heart of a large field, to be explored by Kolomoiski's Burisma, which recently made the news for hiring Joe Biden's son. There are also vast fields in the Black Sea, the claims to which have significantly changed with Crimea going back to Russia - as the New York Times is well aware. Also, Ukraine is known as Europe's breadbasket and Monsanto and cohorts are on the case and likely wouldn't be pleased with policies of some "People's Republics" if they are anything like Russia's. --CE (talk) 16:02, 29 August 2014 (UTC)

There is also this Caspian-5 group nearby, all oil and gas producers, and including (from realpolitik angle) Russia and Iran Caspian Sea Summit Kicks Off In Russia --Resup (talk) 13:16, 29 September 2014 (UTC)--Resup (talk) 13:16, 29 September 2014 (UTC)

Independence Day
Well, it went quietly. Lots of shiny new equipment being shown off Soviet style. Most Western media reported it straight. One single report contained something critical. "On the other side of Independence Square, a group of fighters from the Aidar volunteer battalion said they had travelled to Kiev overnight from the front line and were disgusted with what they had seen at the parade.

"They wouldn't let us take part, they tried not to let us into Kiev, even," said one of the men who gave his name as Zhenya. He said of their group of around 100 fighters, only 34 had returned, of the others, 15 had died and the rest were injured. "We wanted the parade to be a parade of those who are actually fighting, not for those who have been sitting in Kiev the whole time. And look at all that new military hardware, I have not seen a single thing as new as that out on the front line." the The Guardian said.

In Donetsk they paraded some prisoners, described as dejected, in assorted dirty clothing. TWO sites claimed they had their heads shaved, ONE of these actually said this on top of a PHOTO showing them with all their hair. NY Times is the worst. Yeah sure, people waste eggs and tomatoes to throw at them? the Western media is starting to get to me. In the US various Human Rights experts opined the parade is in breach of the Geneva Convention, which they know so little of they don't know it only applies to the signatories. GGGRRRR KatKan (talk) 22:18, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

Elections - Rada dissolved
Ukrainian Rada has been dissolved and October 26 has been as the election date. " Poroshenko said the dissolution, which was prefigured by the breakup of the majority coalition last month, was in line with "the expectations of the vast majority of the citizens of Ukraine" and called it a move toward "cleansing" the parliament.

Many members of parliament "are allies of the militants-separatists," Poroshenko said, referring to the pro-Russian rebels who have battled government troops in the country's east since April."

"He emphasized the need to elect new leaders from the war-torn areas of east Ukraine in order to represent the region in the new government. It wasn't clear how it would be possible to conduct elections at such short notice in Donetsk and Luhansk, where hundreds of thousands have fled their homes and shelling between rebel and government forces continues daily." Varioius versions on ABC and on RT news

Very convenient. Have elections when 1/2 or more of the people are NOT THERE. I am sure they'll be properly represented. For sure. Someone should insist on UN observers for this one. KatKan (talk) 21:00, 25 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Good, there's a spot.


 * Reuters Aug 21 Porpsheko announces he may dissolve. ""The decision will be made when there is a constitutional basis for it and that moment, as everyone knows, is on Independence Day (Aug. 24)," Poroshenko was quoted as saying by Interfax Ukraine news agency."
 * Poroshenko, a wealthy confectionery magnate, and his pro-Europe leadership hope to have stabilised the situation enough by October to be able to hold an election under normal conditions which will earn his new administration increased legitimacy.
 * And there's a reason - sttle down and let us "stabilize" you if you want a fair vote and representation. Your old sympathisers are gone, and you'll have to be different, non-rebel people living under "reconstruction" before you get a replacement. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:22, 25 August 2014 (UTC)


 * AFP Aug 25
 * Many lawmakers are "if not direct sponsors and accomplices, then supporters of the separatist militants" in eastern Ukraine, he said, adding that "snap parliament polls are part of my peace plan".
 * "I consider a victory in Donbass and a victory of the forces of democratic reform in Verkhovna Rada as a linked process," he said, referring to the popular name for Ukraine's eastern separatist strongholds of Donetsk and Lugansk. 

--Caustic Logic (talk) 23:22, 25 August 2014 (UTC)


 * So he's counting 2 months to

all in 8 weeks. Must be Superman. In 8 days he couldn't organise 200 trucks to be inspected.
 * build enough trust that he will NOT kill 100 for every 1 his side lost as he threatened
 * do this while still sending ballistic missiles into Donbass
 * get disarmament (unilateral no doubt)
 * rebuild the towns to be livable, electricity, water,etc back on so all refugees can go home
 * organise polling booths

Snap polls sound like a good way to disenfranchise people. Then claim his is a legitimately freely elected Government.

Ok, the people were not happy "their" President got kicked out. But they're not fighting because they had support in the Rada, a lot of good that's doing them. He might like to consider disarming the "volunteer" Third Force private armies that are running around making trouble.KatKan (talk) 02:59, 26 August 2014 (UTC)

Minsk meeting
Putin meets Poroshenko in Minsk on 26 August (all 3 persons involved got Kievan Rus' as ancestor ) Well, that's better, but outcome of it appear rather  uncertain. Europe press-releasing something [ http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-14-254_en.htm ] --Chingachgook (talk) 14:52, 19 August 2014 (UTC)

Unknown force with unknown, but clearly bad, purpose, claimed by UAF colonel working on POW exchange for a long time. (Rebels agree). (Well, that seems to be not controversial at all). --Chingachgook (talk) 14:12, 20 August 2014 (UTC)

Well, if anybody who cares to read this thinks that Europe is going to bend backwards to resolve the situation, than well, I've been there sometime for quite a while, and this does not seem to me to be exactly the case, or this is not clearly visible to me at this point time. So if those guys involved in this situation will not sort it out for themselves, one way or another, I do not see any evidence that anybody will do it for them, and especially against their wishes,and at least in a reasonably near future. Exactly how anybody sees Europe getting involved, and exactly what it is supposed to do? No clue here. (There is some sort of EU association agreement with Syria, and so what good did that do? Any comments here? I just have no clue at all. There are trucks on the border with food already, I do not see humanitarian supply  to be an issue . They can stand for themselves, if nobody is pursuing an active military attack,  than it seems to lead to an OKish de-facto situation . Why not to do something in Minsk, really? (Or maybe in Kiev?) Why to go to Europe, what good that is supposed to do? No idea  --Chingachgook (talk) 15:42, 20 August 2014 (UTC)

Well, one thing is perhaps for Europe to give credibility for any investigations taking place (and figure out a way to manage it without inflaming things by too much). Objections? Anything else? --Chingachgook (talk) 16:17, 20 August 2014 (UTC)


 * There was outrage in Europe about MH17. Crimea and Russian help for Donbass reignites fear of serious war; let's not forget a lot of EU nations were under Soviet rule and didn't like it. So they went along with some sanctions. Russia's retaliation not buying their products now is hurting them bad, when their economies are just coming good. They are now democracies,where losses like that can lose them votes, too. They will wont a chance to reverse this. Some of them also had Freedom Fights and remember those, too.
 * Russia came out of the Humanitarian Aid business very well. Kiev came out of it looking very bad, for the pointless 8 day delaying tactics. This changes the balance of power in the Minsk talks. Russia has saved some face so can afford to make some concessions -- but will want some in exchange.
 * Kiev cannot keep blaming separatists for the civilian deaths, either. Their only approach has been to blast away with rockets. They never once offered or tried to negotiate with the people involved - which is NOT RUSSIA. Donbass will not give up without firm guarantees they won't be obliterated if they do. Russia will keep helping them while they fight. So it has to start with guarantees. Threats like "100 will die for every 1 of ours" have to be withdrawn.
 * There need be a NEUTRAL country to be go-between. Probably not Germany, for a lot of reasons, although Merkel being from East Germany maybe personally understands some of the issues. KatKan (talk) 08:50, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

Mentally, Rus' is closest to France (creative). But what it lacks is proper order (Britain). This is sort of an issue, actually. --Chingachgook (talk) 10:02, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

Many more Russians speak English, not French. But there are many Russian-speakers in France --Chingachgook (talk) 10:08, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

I think it is obvious which place had more rebellion. I don't know, this is a tough one --Chingachgook (talk) 10:15, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

I am actually curious is Britain possible at all. It is more tense, and may be too tense, but also potentially more to gain here. Britain is like "robust", France is like "diplomacy. --Chingachgook (talk) 11:26, 25 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Britain only has experience with rebellion from the receiving end, they lost a lot of colonies that way. So not an understanding attitude to rebellion. But the "losing colonies" end may make them understand Russia better. But all the ex-Soviet ones that had their own rebellions are relatively new and "junior" members (but would have a lot of older people who speak Russian). Needs be someone who can talk with Donbass in an understanding way. Or talks Kiev out of being to harsh. It's a hard one. KatKan (talk) 12:17, 25 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Novorossia is not that rebellious, their administartion may be more professional than Kiev's. If no go-in-between, why not Belorussia, it is a brother, and is neutral in Novorossia vs Kiev. It looks like either Belorussia, or a major power --Chingachgook (talk) 14:45, 25 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Worth a quick read, how they feel about Russians in Latvia. KatKan (talk) 12:24, 25 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Baltic states, I don't think it's on, unless they themselves suddenly propose and accepted, but it seems to me if somebody has an own axe to grind, should not be in it. This is also, by themselves, not enough weight to stand up to Russia. Other former SU states, or nearby states like Poland, or say  Serbia, is not a good idea, in my opinion. --Chingachgook (talk) 14:15, 25 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Relations with Poland are historically iffy,tho there is a Polish ethnic minority. Ditto with Hungary, which held part of Ukraine as part of the Austro-Hungazian empire. Other Baltic States too small; Lithuania (see their consul) not neutral. Nobody suitable in former Yugoslavia countries. Oh well, back to France or Germany then. Forget UK. Those 2 don't get on. maybe both could try, out of competition between them. KatKan (talk) 14:48, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

I would keep both in the run (+Belorussia). Britain is a shrewd experienced operation, which is, in good case scenarios, is what would be in demand. I mean, the real shrewd player is Russia. Any second player who shows up shall be about as shrewd, but I do not see it now. It looks like, a shrewd player on one side, and no one yet showed up on another side. Empire to Empire sounds interesting to me. France is also excellent, but it is already on good terms with Russia and because of that, there is less extra to gain, which is not there already. The main fault line is between Russian and Anglo-Saxon ways, and some common action may be an interesting new experience. Also Russia vs US is what runs  in parallel to Novorossia to Kiev  --Chingachgook (talk) 15:21, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

France is on good terms = trusted. France is Good Cop. Germany can be Good Cop#2, gain for France is bragging rights over Germany. UK is Bad Cop (as close to US but US must stay out of it as they're the old enemy. None of their business,it's a Europe thing. Belorus can hold Donbass hand. KatKan (talk) 19:13, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

Oh heck, while I right this it comes on the news Kiev is again claiming they're fighting a huge convoy on the border. For a change the news doesn't state this as fact but qualifies it by "not been confirmed". Ooops, Kiev, people are not taking your word for things anymore..... KatKan (talk) 19:13, 25 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Yep, that's how it was reported here (in Germany) as well. "Ukraine again claims..." The boy who cried wolf. It seems to be a successful counter-offensive all the way to the Azov sea without much resistance. By now the news are replaced by Poroshenko's dissolvement of the Parliament. New election Oct 26. This could be a good thing, although I really don't know how the situation could be turned around to the degree of having elections accepted by all regions. But it offers an opportunity for a new beginning. Well, for tomorrow I hope that Merkel and Putin have had some good ideas and Merkel made it clear yesterday that some things Putin will offer are backed by her, maybe with a codeword or so. The Russians will make sure to extract all the surveillance stuff the Empire has shoved into Porky's rear end before speaking a word. ;o) --CE (talk) 20:55, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

ACLOS Peace Talk
Crisis in eastern Ukraine unlikely to be solved exclusively by force - Poroshenko Itar-Tass Yeah, it cannot   --Chingachgook (talk) 22:48, 20 August 2014 (UTC)  September in New York  --Chingachgook (talk) 23:20, 20 August 2014 (UTC)

Президент України Петро Порошенко провів зустріч з заступником Генерального секретаря ООН з політичних питань Джеффрі Фелтманом, який перебуває в Україні за дорученням Генерального секретаря ООН Пан Гі Муна. Президент висловив подяку Генеральному секретарю за підтримку миру та деескалації ситуації на Донбасі  --Chingachgook (talk) 23:34, 20 August 2014 (UTC)

Ukraine Independence Day celebrations  --Chingachgook (talk) 21:30, 24 August 2014 (UTC)

Is there anybody watching for fighting to not to resume after those parades? (I have no idea). At this time it looks promising but may easily slip back. Troops are not going to parade day after day I suppose, and it is unclear what they plan to do after parades --Chingachgook (talk) 02:06, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

It appears at this point to best have an agreement that fighting is not resumed, otherwise it may split back where it was, sooner or later. If that would be the case, it is not very likely I will be following closely what is going on there, it is somebody else's problem, not mine --Chingachgook (talk) 02:15, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

It is not actually only war or peace, there is also Makhno scenario, батько Махно nobody is really in charge fighting as they please, whenever would be there preference. I simply do not have time to watch a movie of that length, if it is going that way, this one is on somebody else --Chingachgook (talk) 02:33, 25 August 2014 (UTC)

A proposal is filed assembly-of-a-new-world-order. Any response ? (Hey, and what to do with this world order)? --Resup (talk) 18:00, 29 August 2014 (UTC)


 * LOL, by none other than Henry Kissinger! Alex Jones and comrades are going to throw a hissy. Will read later, thanks. --CE (talk) 18:32, 29 August 2014 (UTC)
 * From Kissinger: "...A nation founded explicitly on an idea of free and representative governance, the U.S. identified its own rise with the spread of liberty and democracy and credited these forces with an ability to achieve just and lasting peace". Except their own representative governance has never reached even 50% representation, more and more are being disenfranchised, and is falling apart. Justice and peace are sorely lacking for the poorer population, and the profits of globalisation somehow never trickle down. USA needs get its own house in order.
 * "...The traditional European approach to order had viewed peoples and states as inherently competitive; to constrain the effects of their clashing ambition.." and deep down they still clash, especially when the price of economic growth (on paper)is more inequality at home, for the poorer nations in particular. Forced to follow externally mandated rules and targets, but having to solve their own problems on their own, many nations have a lot of internal unrest about EU membership.
 * The Ukraine crisis weakens the US and EU both. Russia's rejection of (mostly food) imports from sanctioning EU states hits their lowest paid, whole regions of them. Every unsold orange or apple is a bomb to weaken the EU. Every sanction reversed to avoid domestic trouble is a land mine for US ambitions.
 * my 2c worth KatKan (talk) 20:41, 29 August 2014 (UTC)
 * US debt is reaching unsustainable levels, and dollar continuing to be the dominant reserve currency forever is not guaranteed. And at the same time, just too many things are dysfunctional. US best interest is to fix herself, not to fix the rest of the world (and the rest of the world would follow, anyway). --Resup (talk) 22:04, 29 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Like, the US spent something like 6 bln (from the fall of SU times) to do something in Ukraine. What's the return on that investment? --Resup (talk) 22:17, 29 August 2014 (UTC)
 * What's the return? on gas and oil fields? trillions over time. Plus The extra influence on Europe by supplying them this super important product, which will translate into other deals they will not lose on. Foot in the door to develop other industries. Sell other goods. Bragging rights to thumb their noses at Russia. The huge US debt is only Government debt. These investments are mostly by companies which happen to have people in the government ie they own the government. They have plenty of money; they get tax concessions everywhere or just pay in a tax haven. Ukraine national gas pipes can be privatized and sold to foreigners now (newish laws) they'll do ok on the stock exchange, too. Russia will lose on it, they're not keen to do so.  Read section 4 on this page about oil and gas. KatKan (talk) 03:15, 30 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Well, if there is peace (everybody involved has good relations), those money things can be negotiated in rational ways, not fought in wars. Everybody may $win$ in the end. Using warfare or fighting talk, is not going to get the US into Donbas.   (Reminds Iraq situation, I believe foreign oil companies currently present in Iraq is Exxon-Mobile -- Shell, West Qurna 1, and Lukoil (Russia)--Statoil (Norway) in West Qurna 2, with only Lukoil actually remaining West_Qurna ). (There is lots of coal also in Donbas, if anybody cares).(I don't think Russia is driven by $ considerations, in fact it is using $ matters as negotiation/warfare tool). (As for the US, the only way to get oil $ out there is peaceful way).  --Resup (talk) 06:10, 30 August 2014 (UTC)

Aid Delivery
Food trucks moved to the border, but were stopped till tomorrow morning by Ukraine border guard because some stupid papers were not there. Or rather border guards did not show up as they were supposed to because, they claimed, papers are not in order  They claim there is no proper paperwork regarding content of those shipments. They are not happy with just Red Cross paperwork and need some other paperwork which is not there. This is usual crap they normally give you if they want to give you a headache. (This potentially can play forever, unless there is a call from their boss  to sort this out. ). All of that stuff is voiced by Andrei Lysenko. --Chingachgook (talk) 20:17, 20 August 2014 (UTC)

Andrew Roth reported from Donetsk, and Nick Cumming-Bruce from Geneva. Yes, but the trucks did not cross, it appears --Chingachgook (talk) 20:56, 20 August 2014 (UTC)

Andrei Lysenko: Red Cross has not received yet guarantees of safe passage --Chingachgook (talk) 21:21, 20 August 2014 (UTC)

Rebels, quoting Itar-Tass: border guards did not show up and did not respond to attempts to contact them. (Hm, I wonder how exactly that works, with no guards at such sort of border? Like, what needs to happen for border guards to show up on the border? )--Chingachgook (talk) 21:30, 20 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Captured Ukrainian team planned attack on Russian humanitarian aid convoy — militia Itar-Tass, Aug 15
 * Militia in Ukraine's town of Luhansk said on Friday they have captured a reconnaissance group of National Guard tasked with preparing an attack on the Russian humanitarian aid convoy.
 * A load of weapons and ammunition was found in a car carrying three saboteurs, the militia headquarters of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic and Donetsk People's Republic said.
 * "The weapons and ammunition were hidden in bags of food," a headquarters representative said.
 * During an interrogation, the saboteurs said their mission was to plant mines along a local road and attack the Russian convoy delivering humanitarian aid to residents of south-eastern Ukraine.
 * One of the detainees said the Ukrainian army had sent seven teams of saboteurs to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and that these groups were setting up ambushes on roads leading to militia-controlled areas.  [Who wrote this???  not me].


 * pffft. Same story as Ukies told the MH17 investigators - "terrorists mined the roads so you can't go there". So who had the idea first? Also have seen predictions Russians or terrorists will attack it,to put blame on Kiev. So safest for everyone to leave it alone. KatKan (talk) 00:46, 23 August 2014 (UTC)

August 22 it's reported the convoy finally entered Ukraine, without waiting for Kiev's permission. They protest they've been InvAIDed! Vicious shipments of food and medicine are on their way to keep the "inhumans" alive and ... maybe able to hold out and not have their wills broken. It's criminal! --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:39, 22 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Big fuss being made about the trucks being half-empty. The fear from everyone is "so they can bring in guns etc". HOW? Red Cross inspects them in the Customs zone, and they're half empty, when and where will they load the guns? is there a stack of armaments ready to be loaded, standing inside the Customs zone? this is stupid.
 * They could of course pick up light gear and people already in, and get them back to good positions in the north of the city. They could also just be light because they'll be traveling over rough roads and have to go to many destinations on the other end. KatKan (talk) 00:46, 23 August 2014 (UTC)


 * The latter is a good guess. A week ago when the pre$$titutes were hanging around the convoy in droves, they were allowed to inspect them, and they were told why some of them were almost empty: To have reserve trucks if some break down. --CE (talk) 01:06, 23 August 2014 (UTC)
 * I laughed when I saw that excuse. That means they are expecting 75% breakdown? but you don't want full load if the road is maybe 75% shell craters. They can't add large heavy equipment, but men with portable weapons could hitch a ride... we'll see... KatKan (talk) 12:16, 23 August 2014 (UTC)
 * 75% break down? Huh? They haven't all been almost empty, it's just those ones that made the "news". --CE (talk) 13:00, 23 August 2014 (UTC)

"Russia sending a convoy into Ukraine without Ukraine's approval is a further provocation and a violation of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity," said Barrack Obama, president of the self-declared "United States of America," increasingly considered the world's foremost terrorist organization, insisting the humanitarian aid be removed from Ukraine at once. The "so-called humanitarian convoy ... can only deepen the crisis in the region," said NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. "They were this close to getting starved out and surrendering," he did not add by way of explanation. "Eventually, the terrorists would have given up, just for some bread and medicine for their children, water, electricity, and a bit of peace. Now here comes Russia, bringing some of that in without insisting on surrender first? It's appalling and it has to end." The European Union has called on Russia to recognize Ukraine's sovereignty with regards to starving citizens inside borders; binding conventions are clear, they say, that if a country keeps your food out and refuses to deliver its own, for freakin' ever, to people it considers subhuman and is trying to "crush," all states must let the starvation proceed, rather than drawing it out. Violation is punishable, as is nothing at all and anything. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:10, 23 August 2014 (UTC) Russian UN Ambassador Churkin tried to deflect from those facts by implying that Baby food hardly would support rebels, and was urbanely informed by a Voice of America correspondent that "Rebels have babies too." --CE (talk) 10:27, 23 August 2014 (UTC) Ukraine's state security chief Valentin Nalivaychenko said the aid convoy was a "direct invasion" and the medicine in particular was a "well-planned dangerous provocation." He added, almost invitingly, that Ukraine would not attack the convoy and wanted to avoid any confrontations. He managed to not blurt out "but oh boy are those terrorists gonna blow the food trucks to hell..." --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:34, 23 August 2014 (UTC)


 * CONVOY UNLOADED and gone home without incident.
 * "MOSCOW — The huge convoy of Russian trucks that entered war-torn eastern Ukraine on Friday, sharply escalating tensions, returned to Russia on Saturday after unloading food and medicine in the city of Luhansk, and the Russian government quickly declared its satisfaction with the operation." from NYTimes
 * The bast**d Anglo media. I just heard on my radio brief news, verbatim "The Russian aid convoy in Ukraine has turned around and crossed back into Russia, following protests that it was an invasion". Making it sound like they had been forced to go back still loaded.  They did NOT TURN AROUND. They unloaded and went home. WITHOUT INCIDENT.


 * The still need find some fault "In Ukraine’s capital, Kiev, a military spokesman, Col. Andriy Lysenko, said the Ukrainian government was also hoping to defuse the situation, but he accused Russia of using some of the aid trucks to take military equipment from Ukrainian factories back to Russia. However, he offered no evidence to support his assertion." from same story above. I bolded a phrase that is fresh and unusual in Western media. Is the mental tide turning? maybe?
 * Still complaining impossible to know what was in them, as not were inspected. Hello?? they got unloaded?  in Luhansk?  doesn't Kiev claim to control that now????
 * One government here I would not believe if they told me the sky is blue. Another, not if they told me a sky even exists. KatKan (talk) 13:46, 23 August 2014 (UTC)


 * This Lysenko character is reaching Comical Ali territory. Take a look at the latest of his daily SitRep maps. See the convoy? It's a "terrorist attack". Hahaha. Here's the latest RT report which includes a ride with the convoy to Lugansk yesterday and footage of it being unloaded. --CE (talk) 14:25, 23 August 2014 (UTC)


 * And terrorist subhuman guy says "we cleared this road. Come this way. It is known as the road of life"... "known" meaning everyone had been told about it, to leave it alone. I think which truck was going where was prearranged with the Donbass guys, too, they're the ones to knows what's needed the most. And BIG BIG COUP for Russia ahead of the talks on Tuesday. KatKan (talk) 16:55, 23 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Fairy tale busted by the OSCE at the border, who observed the full number of 227 vehicles return which had entered Ukraine the day before. Both happened in groups of around 40, likely going to different destinations and/or on different routes. Take that Lie-senko:
 * The cargo trucks arrived with the rear cargo tailgate open. After the Russian authorities had quickly checked the trucks, the cargo tailgates were closed and afterwards the vehicles departed in groups of 10-12.
 * --CE (talk) 16:13, 23 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Good on them. That's what observers are for. Doing something useful for a change. KatKan (talk) 16:55, 23 August 2014 (UTC)

I did not have enough proper rest to figure out aid delivery, but we are not an aid delivery operation, we have zero budget and zero resources, and they need to figure something sensible out quickly or this may never happen at all. --Chingachgook (talk) 19:01, 23 August 2014 (UTC)


 * I guess I'm not the only one who would like to know what you mean by "we" here. If you feel like giving us a brief description about where you're coming from, it would be appreciated (ideally on your user page). And please do so when you are not tired and in a hurry. And extend that to your other contributions as well. You have again posted stuff in very small parts, very difficult to make sense of, and partly unsigned about the "mass graves" on the other page this evening. Please take care that what you share is understood by the readers. --CE (talk) 21:20, 23 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Here I think he means ACLOS, as we're doing "peace talk" and coming up with the plans for the future, but (jokingly exaggerating the concept) one might realize suddenly we can't deliver aid. But agreed - less cryptic is good. Though I can be sloppy and unclear too - will watch that. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:58, 23 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Oh yeah, missed we're in the "ACLOS Peace Talk" area. --CE (talk) 00:30, 24 August 2014 (UTC)

OK, I here stand corrected. It's I, than. (whatever, just keep this moving) --Chingachgook (talk) 22:58, 23 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Hey ... I also cannot deliver aid to Ukraine... --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:58, 23 August 2014 (UTC)


 * UNLESS someone here is actually in Donbass physically, "we" can't do the deliveries. But someone(s) are there doing it. Maybe not the official authorities in the towns, whoever they were in each place. But somehow the trucks got sent to numerous places, they were given places to unload at, routes were decided, cleared and secured in advance. I am sure the same people who organised that also organised getting the right mix of items in each place, and can organise getting them to the most needy in their area. This is the start of civil local government. The distribution process will bring more people together, bring more problems out in the open, find more volunteers to organise doing something about them. Democratic co-operation.


 * I am new here and I am in Australia and I don't know anyone else's situation. That's what I think, and I apologise if I'm speaking out of turn saying this. On one level "Peace talk" is just talk, unless "we" are there on the ground.  On another level, if good ideas are found (not the total big solution -- is anyone here invited to the official talks?) --  but ideas for specific areas of peace or rebuilding --  those ideas could be spread to the people who ARE there. Give them a seed to grow, together, that maybe they can't see from being too close to it.  I am starting a new section for an idea I just noticed. KatKan (talk) 00:27, 24 August 2014 (UTC)
 * No, nothing official really ... Petri gets around a bit with some Finland and even Russia people. I try to pester powerful people on occasion by e-mail ... no response. Words to actions and working for justice, etc. - I value it, and I think we do. Will check out this idea. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:10, 24 August 2014 (UTC)

More Aid
This time no screaming about invasion. Third convoy of Russian aid slips in and out without comment from Kiev. This time they went to Donetsk as UNHCR was in Luhansk at the time. The latter is bringing window glass and roofing iron, to help get houses winter-proofed. Red Cross is too bogged down in chicken bureaucracy to be any use. So, it looks like NR will be looked after this winter. Also read somewhere Russia is pulling high tension power lines across the border to supply the area. KatKan (talk) 15:29, 22 September 2014 (UTC)

Many civilians are displaced. Russian FMS data report 180 K applied for refugee or temporary stay status, and 110 K already received it; while some 820 K total displaced Ukrainians reported to arrive to  Russia and stay the since conflict started (not all applying for a status). Around 500 per day new resettlement applications in Russia reported. Displaced to Ukraine estimate I have seen (UNHCR data, I recall) is some 300 K. Not clear how many civilians are still in Novorossia; total affected population was estimated somewhere at 3.5 mln, but this is probably in a broader area than currently held by Novorossia. --Resup (talk) 16:33, 22 September 2014 (UTC)

MIA
Rebels re-broadcast this message, This are photos of soldiers of 30 Brigade UAF, which disappeared after big losses near village Stepanovka (19-20 August). Mostly from 3 Batallion. Relatives are looking for them, here are their photos. We do not know how to help --Chingachgook (talk) 01:32, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

Servicemen and their relatives accuse Kyev of concealing heavy casualties, mothers plan protest in September (video) --Chingachgook (talk) 01:35, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

Rebels post their regular updates on http://rusvesna.su/, most of it is available in English, there are many human cases, somebody just need to monitor human issues they put over there --Chingachgook (talk) 01:44, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

Володимир Рубан [ UAF] is working on POW, MIA issues for a long time on the government side. May be time to exchange details of POW and MIA issues directly, it should be known to them how to go about those things, there will be lots of cases

The say, 3500 UAF fighters disappeared --Chingachgook (talk) 03:24, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

How Russian Soft Power Will Save us All From An Ugly Future
Daily Mail wants you to know there was a moment - an exact one and photographed - in which Russian sabotage cell was captured by Ukrainian secret service with plans and weapons to bring down a plane on Ukraine's Independence Day next week. They were already doing terrorist stuff in Kharkhiv, were totally run by the SBU, and were on Putin's order to blow up another plan over Ukraine, to prove they meant it the first time, or whatever. Stopped, luckily, by our level-headed partners in security there in Nulandistan.


 * Hmm let's see here. It looks a bit rough, but I don't see the faces. So I should be worrying about all prisoners now, as I don't know exactly who those captured are --Chingachgook (talk) 11:45, 20 August 2014 (UTC)
 * HAHAHAHA  Hilarious! the prisoners don't look worried (body language of course, can't see faces). The guys with the guns are not standing in a shooting position, what kind of guards are they? Kalashkinovs are fairly useless against aircraft. Are they even planes still flying apart from military?  all this from the same Daily Mail that brought us dead people's phones being answered after 5 days.KatKan (talk) 01:03, 23 August 2014 (UTC)

Okay ... this date is important. It's said Poroshenko has no plans for a cease-fire, and no motive. His best bet will be a swift apparent victory by then (the 24th), to give a warm glow to the first part of the grinding and brutal occupation perhaps to come. Russian plans for the date are feared and being demonized. Seeing how late it's getting, or at least appears (late enough either way)

"Soft power" comes from hard power + smart power, and it can just leak away. So Putin should order military strikes and ongoing support - finally - no later than this date. that is, it should be ready to go any day. Preceded by very short warning to leave rather than die, powerful blows should be coordinated with federalist forces to push the fascits further out from Donetsk, Lugansk, and Horlivka, at least, then firm estaablishment of humanitarian corridor - no expansion, just enough to protect the core of the United People's Republics of Ukraine, to ensure its survival and leave the final borders up to talks. Only force will deter these unaccountable, genocidal, cyinical, deceptive, and thoroughly insane Fascist thugs to finally force a re-thinking, a chance for peace and negotiations - between human beings.

Putin can say stuff like "for months the New York-led "world community" has blamed us for supplying arms and fighters to the people of the East who rejected the takeover of their government by fascists now bent on genocide. ... as we sat by, tears in our eyes as Ukraine was plunged deeper into brutality and deceit with no end in sight ... the people of the east under-supported, cut off from water and shelled ... our people are already paying for what I have finally delivered ... this is what a Russian invasion and Russian support looks like - you hadn't seen it before. A genocide is obviously danger... we all said never again, we mean it.

Also, it's a favor to the whole world. Maybe freed from the need (via losing the ability) to push this thing, we can let ourselves look more clearly at all the events this year and sigh with relief - Putin stopped us from having to watch ourselves mindlessly push another avoidable genocide. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:20, 20 August 2014 (UTC)

To have prisoners exchanged, first contacts to make appear to be:  Володимир Рубан [General-Colonel, UAF] (seriously working on this for a long time)    --Chingachgook (talk) 11:59, 20 August 2014 (UTC)

US-Russia unknown unknowns
I actually think that the main issue is that there are some unknown issues between Russia and USA, and not resolving those will be causing difficulties in various places. I do not understand what are those US-Russia issues. It seems to be more meaningful to worry less who is for what to blame, and focus instead on how to do something better --Chingachgook (talk) 03:19, 25 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Apart from the "mine is bigger than yours" posturing, which is mostly for domestic consumption, there is the question of oil and gas riches. Billions at stake; for Russia it is a huge % of their exports, about half I think.
 * Total trade volume between USA and Russia is too low (around 16 bln). Especially US exports are low. . Wars may raise oil prices, and USA is (I think, still) net oil importer. There is no real economic benefit in "mine is bigger than yours" posturing, I would guess. --Resup (talk) 20:55, 29 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Also, with good relations there may be a train service, Chukotka to Alaska Bering_Strait_crossing. About a century old idea now. --Resup (talk) 21:35, 29 August 2014 (UTC)

Such issues may include the "Wolfovitz doctrine" (esp. p. 2, 3), which some say (still) exists, and commits the United States to maintaining its status as the sole Unipower, as highlighted in this anti-WW3 article by Paul Craig Roberts. While it is unknown whether there was Wolfovitz foreign policy doctrine at all (the declassified document is not a foreign policy manual), and if it was, whether it still applies. But practical actions so far appear uniformly consistent to such a "doctrine." Another thing is "Jennifer Psaki doctrine." There is no such doctrine at all, but when Russians hear  this name, they start to laugh already. The reason is what appears to be poorly informed, sometimes absurd, statements made by Ms. Psaki, having cult following in humor sections on Russian social networks. In the West, this sometimes goes as hashtag doctrine. Humor aside, what this does is it promotes standing of the "party of war" in Russia, as long as "party of peace" gets no carrot, and only arrogance and such 'hashtag nonsense'  in response    --Resup (talk) 14:33, 1 October 2014 (UTC)

Unite Mothers to Unite Nation
One idea - woman power, specifically Mother Power. There are already small groups of mothers demanding to know where there sons are. And it is so reasonable, nobody can refuse them.

Mothers want their sons back. Even if dead, they want them back. Or at least know. It is starting to come out how many thousands are dead, how many lies have been told about this. On top of it are all the missing civilians nobody can find.

Half the population is women. This is ONE subject where half the population all wants the same thing. It is something that unites them across all those other lines that others are trying to divide them by (colorado, nazi, north south east west etc). It makes them all equally human again.

The little groups who now stand and shout at the Generals, they could be organised into a national movement with oblast and town level chapters. So they can join, and write down who their son is, where he went, that last they know of him. This will help the mothers. It will also help identify the MIAs, the KIAs buried unmarked and nameless. This will also help the Government, whoever they will be in the end. They will be busy building roads and bridges, and won't have money for a big team to collect the facts. Half the population could do it for themselves. It is a big interest for them, they just need to get co-ordinated. KatKan (talk) 00:48, 24 August 2014 (UTC)

There is a Committee of Soldiers Mothers in Russia, local committees, and a union of committees. Lately, they are not in an easy situation, and are not getting much positive press coverage in Russia. Russia has a traditional political landscape, and it is unlikely that Soldiers Mothers are in a position to dramatically change it--unless they can enlist Valentina Matviyenko for their cause.
 * Russian ministry of defense responded to a letter of a union of soldiers mothers member Valentina Melnikova. Out of 9 soldiers on her list, 8 have already contacted their relatives. Only one soldier cannot be found yet.

--Resup (talk) 13:07, 14 September 2014 (UTC)

UN
Russia-suggested statement calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine has been blocked at UN SC --Resup (talk) 13:07, 14 September 2014 (UTC)
 * Luhansk republic, Igor Plotnitskii stated to RIA-Novosti: "Authorities of LNR confirm their readiness to let into or through republic's territory  international or Ukrainian humanitarian convoys under Red Cross auspices"--Resup (talk) 15:25, 14 September 2014 (UTC)

Genocide?
Perhaps Democide is a better word, as Vera Graziadei offers as an alternate term in the excellent visual essay Ukrainian Genocide and its Cheerleaders. An excerpt, with a related image inset to the right here, and hers missing (go see the original):


 * Stage 2. SYMBOLIZATION – when combined with hatred, symbols are forced upon unwilling members of pariah groups:


 * East Ukrainians, who rose up against Russophobe post-coup government, were termed ‘separatists’ and once they started taking over governmental buildings (just like Maidaners did), they were re-termed ‘terrorists‘. Most common symbol used is an orange-and-black striped Colorado beetle (left), because it resembles the colors of the St. George ribbon (right) worn by Pro-Russians.


 * Stage 3. DEHUMANIZATION – one group denies the humanity of the other group. Members of it are equated with animals, vermin, insects, or diseases, which should be ‘cleansed’ or ‘exterminated.’


 * a) Colorado bugs to be exterminated as ‘pests/parasites’ of Ukraine


 * Cheerleaders: CHANNEL 5 (owned by Poroshenko): ran insecticide ad (covert call for genocide/subliminal message that killing ‘Colorados’ would lead to prosperity of the country) which encourages to kill Colorado Beetles by fumigating them from a canister bearing black and red colours of Praviy Sector’s flag.


 * ...Stage 7. EXTERMINATION – it’s extermination to the killers, because they do not believe their victims to be fully human: Odessa Massacre, Luganks bombing, Mariupol killings, Slavyansk shelling.

--Caustic Logic (talk) 09:54, 18 August 2014 (UTC)

'Road of death' is a Geneva and Helsinki event. Road of death guys made a passing comment like "I do not even know how to describe it, it is not even a murder, how do they call it, genocide or something I guess". Well, in response to this comment, that thing clearly violated the war conventions and human rights, and some human right group should have this matter flagged. Rebels were wearing a military-style uniform (sufficient to distinguish them from the other side--and that's about all they were really supposed to do). "Combatants" and "civilians" in that case were clearly distinguished. Ambulance had a visible red cross on it, not much was left from the ambulance car. --Chingachgook (talk) 11:21, 18 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Kiev has made a big deal the Russian weapons were used to kill the innocents here, as people start to notice Kiev has no motivation to cease firing. Lots of allegedly self-destructive behavior like that may be planned. I do hope it can be stopped, but it ain't starting to get stopped yet... --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:16, 19 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Documentary: Donbas: Chronical of Genocide (Graphic, vulgar, brutal - 18+) One hour, 37 minutes. Lots of shelling victims, a fascinating interrogation, etc. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:16, 19 August 2014 (UTC)
 * For the record, there are some questionable aspects of that video, where it strays from straight documentation. At the end, it seems to claim all the junta leaders in Kiev are crypto-Jews, and gives the real last names all, even Yatseniuk. Is that one part dry humor, or totally serious? Not sure... --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:03, 21 August 2014 (UTC)
 * That's indeed very unfortunate and problematic for sharing it. But it doesn't make what's before it less remarkable. Watched it after your recommendation, heartbreaking. And I looked up some of the names they claim. On wikipedia level of research it seems they're right in true Nazi fashion that Timoshenko and Klitschko are "quarter jews", meaning one of their grandparents were jews (with the names given). --CE (talk) 11:17, 21 August 2014 (UTC)
 * A 1:32 we see Bogdan Boutkevitch, who is sign-posted as a 'religious Jew' but what he says is a classic Nazi's Lebensraum idea, and has nothing at all to do with Judaism. What we see in the end, is already described above, and is unfortunate and pointless. Unfortunately, such lowly  nonsense (of Protocols Elders of Zion caliber, a historic fake), is still in use in some mass media. Indeed, it does not deny the preceding documentary. (+ if all 1/2 and 1/4 are discounted, there may be too few left,-- even David Beckham, a knighted footballer, is out).  --Resup (talk) 02:15, 17 September 2014 (UTC)

Yatseniuk's Subhuman Comment
This is only one point in a broader pattern of dehumanization, but one that gets cited for its prominence at least. On June 17, then-the Ukrainian embassy in the United States published part of a statement by then-PM Arseniy Yatseniuk where he repeated the overriding opinion in Kiev that pro-Russian separatists are "subhumans." That's not at the link, of course; Speaking of soldier recently killed in the invasion of the east, he said "They lost their lives because they defended men and women, children and the elderly" who, he said, were "facing a threat to be killed by invaders and sponsored by them inhumans." But as numerous screen-grabs available around show (Moon of Alabama's), it did say subhumans before. It should have, grammatically - that's a known noun that fits. Inhuman, an adjective, was inserted as a made-up plural noun. Spellcheck doesn't like it.

The implication of "inhuman" is supposed to be different and less Nazi-evocative than what he wrote, or they (embassy staff?) wouldn't have changed it. Inhuman simply means not human, not menschen - maybe unter, maybe uber, or just off to the side. Usually inhuman is a bad thing (lacking in the nobler human traits like mercy - though inhumane is made just for that). But here, maybe he means super-human aliens, or ethereal ghosts, or something? The grammar was never fixed - how to even read this? those threatening to kill are invaders (Russians, alleged) "and sponsored by them inhumans." Unless it means to say "those inhumans," unspecified, who sponsored the invaders ... it probably should read "(Russian) invaders and inhumans sponsored by them." The other, sponsored, party is Ukrainian federalists.

At least, the armed portion of those aren't even human, but he's less clear on the rest of the populace. By the rules, the children of these armed men (and women sometimes) can only be half-human at best, and half or more ... not. As noted, the Colorado Beetle is widely considered clever and apt. That's definitely subhuman. And they're to be wiped out, cleansed, like a filth or a vermin: "we will commemorate the heroes by wiping out those who killed them" - the armed rebels and/or invaders who resisted Kiev's invasion, "and then by cleaning our land from the evil."

The "evil" being ... hm, good question? This is after they've killed those who killed their heros. What else is there to call "the evil?" It seems related to the inhumans, as if it spawned them. Any guesses? --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:03, 21 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Maybe Yats was really talking in German, saying Untermenschen with a hitleresque rolling R ... an then someone also thinking in German changed subhuman to inhuman, because what would literally translate to inhuman is the German word Unmensch, which my dictionary translates as "barbarian, brute, fiend" and would be more "politically correct" in denouncing those dreaded "terrorists" in the East. --CE (talk) 11:31, 21 August 2014 (UTC)
 * I agree, it sounds like s multiple-translation issue. He surely still means sub-human,like he said before. All this denigrating name calling must stop. Anyone who talks like that is not qualified to be in charge of a country. And it is not surprising the separatists would rather fight to the death than give up to people who promise to exterminate them. Poroshenko  has promised to kill 100 for every one of his that died, too, a nice round Nazi reprisal number. KatKan (talk) 01:25, 23 August 2014 (UTC)

Ukrael
I just thought of that, maybe someone else did. Not sure what heading it fits under to mention... But Ukrael seems an apt name for the new Ukraine acting like the Israel of the Russian front. For consideration. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:43, 16 September 2014 (UTC)
 * What's happening in Ukraine is very different from the Middle East. Most of eastern Ukraine is really not very much different from Russia. There is some tension but not close to Middle Eastern levels. It is not at the existential level as it is for Israel. And in Ukraine, the opponent is not aiming at destroying Ukraine. War tactics, as well as weapons, are very different. Really Jewish places used to be Odessa, always a special free city, and nowadays culturally similar to what can be seen on the Brighton Beach, New York. Also, historically, Lviv had major Jewish presence before WW2; nowadays, not that much, apart from memories. As for the leaders, what matters are policies, not ethnicities.

Same ethnicities are present on both sides of the conflict. But policy-wise, I do not see anything in common, really, between Ukraine and Israel. --Resup (talk) 00:14, 17 September 2014 (UTC)


 * Good points. The comparison breaks down pretty easily. But on the level of being able to do anything and keep enjoying Western support anyway, it's got some relevance. Eh, it'll take off or not. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:00, 17 September 2014 (UTC)

Right Sector
Via Moon of Alabama:

''The Right Sektor is just storming the parliament in Kiev. They demand the head of the interior minister who's troops killed their comrade. Live video here


 * http://www.ustream.tv/channel/kutiepov13

Ruban's Third Force

 * (moved from Talk:Crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17)

Finally cracked? The third side to blame is found Russian news Ukraine-youtube --Chingachgook (talk) 10:49, 20 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Interesting, thanks. He speaks of a "third force" that's perplexed both Kiev and the separatists, and makes it almost sound like they're working together to find out who it is. I'm reminded of Arsan Avakov's "Third Force" theory for the Maidan snipers. At first, left vague and intriguing, maybe CIA? No, he meant Russians. Here, he gives a direction, maybe. As Yandex renders it: "He also said that the fighting involved foreign mercenaries. "And the Ukrainian and Luhansk and Donetsk. Well, now, what to call it, and that Poland is at war with us, and Sweden?", - asked the General reserve." So far, Kiev has happily accepted these crimes and blamed Russians or the "terrorists." I do hope some minds are trying to break that link, however - from within and beneath, maybe they can make these psychos into the third - and crushed - force they should be. Otherwise, by adoption and encouragement and more, they're in family "B" - Kiev (and all points West). --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:30, 20 August 2014 (UTC)


 * General-Colonel Володимир Рубан is a decent UAF guy who works on prisoners exchange for a long time. Third force is here left unspecified, no mentioning of Russians, some (not too strong) hint it can be (non-Russian) foreigners. Well, non-Russian foreigners were  alleged, well in the past, to be involved in the conflict. He is not saying this is the case here. He says that there is some yet to be found force which works for some bad and unknown purpose. Well, I don't know what on hell is going on, and how on hell it ended here, that's for sure.   --Chingachgook (talk) 12:17, 20 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Володимир Рубан = Volodomyr/Vladimir Ruban - fixed "decent" - descent guy in AF terms suggests he can only bring planes back down :) --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:54, 22 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Today a German newspaper published a translation of the full interview. Really fascinating. Hilarious how the guy treats the propagandized journalist. That's where the remark with being at war with Sweden and Poland came from. Because the interviewer kind of implied that they are at war with Russia and Ruban replied that just because there are Russian mercs and "advisers" involved doesn't make that follow, just like with Poland and Sweden. As to the "third force", he's totally neutral but from the context of the full interview it seems like he means "non-russians", as Chingachgook said. Who hit the Technical Academy with mortars and "blame things like that on one or the other side". Blame. How can that force blame it on someone without a powerful media? ;o) Anyway, interesting guy. Doesn't belong on this page, though, but I have moved around enough for today. --CE (talk) 18:33, 22 August 2014 (UTC)


 * tnx 4 moving, CL. Here's an English translation of the whole thing, just published by Slavyangrad. What I translated as "blame" from the German version is here "makes it look like" one or the other side. --CE (talk) 14:17, 23 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Also, unknowns flag painters attacked in Moscow. (No injuries or deaths alleged).

Satellite photos
Something to investigate:
 * NATO’s Russian troop build-up satellite images ‘show 2013 drills’ – April 10, 2014

Another: Regarding images of Russia shelling across the border - this guy says one image anyway (claiming to prove a lack of Ukrainian forces in a certain area?) is taken right from some fake satellite imagery used in a video game. (Or, was it not really fake but just stock Ukrainian imagery? In context, that would be fake too) (Or, is this one of those modern games where users can insert their own images/can it be shown to be there prior to the recent use by Kiev?( (or, is Parubiy a known player of this game? Etc.) The compared images do seem to bear out the total image match, whatever it means. Worth checking into. Someone else published the info first - on-screen text would help track down who, where, how. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:11, 5 August 2014 (UTC)
 * BUSTED! Kiev's U.S. 'Satellite Images' of Ukraine Are From A 'Video Game'! (Youtube "video")


 * I have retweeted on July 25 a tweet containing the original video, a rather failed attempt to match it to Russian satellite data and the rather plausible debunk claiming the factory shown is some generic piece of infrastructure from a simulator. It's supposed to show the BUK launch. --CE (talk) 12:40, 5 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Okay - that's the same generic image/texture, but it's not clear from that Kiev forge this. It's ridiculous. It's "no comment," no description, posted July 24 by "Lincoln Staarka" AJSR says Kiev/US did forge this, but I need to see them promoting it before I believe they did (saved anyway, pending...). Generic texture or not, that's so obviously fake! A still image panned over ("Ken Burns effect") with a smoke trail animation - as if satellite just hover and pan over an area like a surveillance camera. Did they really? The other guy, again. made it sound like a different later situation, not the Buk launch, and a still image with no stupid animated smoke trail, I thought...) --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:20, 5 August 2014 (UTC)
 * (Quick) Checking Youtube for any posting of this fake video in support of either story yields nothing. Ukrainian or English, the cross-border shelling images are different, and I see no videos claiming to be satellite footage of the MH17 launch. I see nothing yet against calling this a hoax. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:41, 5 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Hmm, when I've seen it the YT video had a description. I think ASJB's claim is of "double fakery" or how do you call it, reverse psychology or so? In the second tweet trying the match there is a comment with a link that goes to what might be the original upload, and I think the description is the same the youtube video had. "Banderas got caught this time exactly." etc. And AJSB thinks it's just produced to keep the Buk myth alive. Or something. Was in a hurry when I posted the three tweets and now see that your video treats the material in a different context. Apparently BS-recycling... btw, as to shelling the border - the OSCE observers observed that on Sunday ... from Ukraine to Russia. *grin* --CE (talk) 17:52, 5 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Okay, that's closer. That's the video, also July 25, title translates "Ogoni ZRK 'Buk' by airplane, Ukraine streamrip.17.07.mp4" Airplane, not satellite? Description:
 * Foreign weather satellite recorded the moment of the complex "Beech" in the infrared. Bandera caught this time specifically. White field, because shooting is done in the thermal range and, accordingly, dark soil is strongly heated. For this reason, the cooling is fast disappearing from the rocket trail. No need to argue, than survey was conducted, it is possible to land remote sensing satellite or high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft - it does not matter now and early to reveal sources. Video is published to those who need to know - control is maintained, videos - there. Perezalivat, because the original is permanently removed, it is also reuploaded.

Comments: skeptical to dismissive - the word fake appears a few times. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:11, 5 August 2014 (UTC)

ATO Toll
There have been various reports from each side about casualty figures in Kiev's "Anti-Terrorist Operation" (ATO).
 * UN OHCHR gives a new figure to Human Rights Investigations: Casualties in east Ukraine Aug 14
 * Cécile Pouilly, a spokesperson of the OHCHR has confirmed to HRI that: - At least 2,086 people have been killed and at least 4,953 wounded in the fighting in east Ukraine since mid-April until 10 August. 
 * In her statement to Reuters, Cécile Pouilly is quoted as saying the figures given are “very conservative.” --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:34, 14 August 2014 (UTC)

Slavyansk: Something coming up?

 * ''Moved to Talk:Slavyansk

GRAD fire from Russia?

 * ''Moved to GRAD fire from Russia?

Crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17

 * ''Moved to Crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17

Donetsk

 * Ukraine Rocket Attack Leads to Mass Jail Breakout AP, August 11
 * Rockets slammed into a high-security prison Monday in the rebel-held city of Donetsk, igniting a riot that allowed more than 100 prisoners to flee, authorities in eastern Ukraine said.


 * Donetsk city council spokesman Maxim Rovinsky said a direct rocket hit killed at least one inmate and left three others severely wounded. In the chaos, he said 106 prisoners escaped, included some jailed for murder, robbery and rape.

...
 * The prison break became possible after a substation providing the building with electricity was damaged, disabling the facility's alarm system.


 * "Extremely dangerous prisoners are now free. It is hard to know the extent of threat this poses to the city, which is flooded with weapons," Rovinsky said.

Will Kiev proudly claim it freed political prisoners, or will it blame "Russians" for re-infecting Donetsk with its own most vile criminals? --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:43, 11 August 2014 (UTC)

Claims the FSB plans to assassinate Donetsk Peoples' Republic leaders as soon as their usefulness is through (ie when Kiev's forces win) --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:46, 11 August 2014 (UTC)
 * http://20committee.com/2014/08/07/latest-ukrainian-intelligence-news/


 * Horlivka, near Donetsk, horrible video: August 14. (copy successfully saved) A civilian car is shown after being his on a city street by what might be SU-25 cannon fire, or some such. Inside, three dead people. A middle-aged man, driving, apparently had his throat shot out. Likely wife in the back seat, back of head blown away. Likely teenage/young adult daughter, also dead. Lots of blood under the car too - someone killed massively in the open, or maybe from another car, since removed. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:06, 15 August 2014 (UTC)

Rebels: [http://rusvesna.su/news/1409855991 3-4 September, Donetsk, Enakievo, Makeevka were shelled. ]( Photo, Video provided by rebels). --Resup (talk) 23:30, 4 September 2014 (UTC)

Rebels claim: UAF for the first time used multiple rocket launcher "Smerch" (means "hurricane/tornado") hitting Petrovsky district of Donetsk The last three days on residential areas and civilian houses were shelled, by what appears to be multiple launch rocket system "Smerch". Rebels: "This multiple rocket launcher can fire up to 100 kilometers and carries very serious damage. Rockets are cassette-type missiles and brought serious damage in an area of only one volley was completely destroyed 21 houses. Fortunately, there were no dead. Light shrapnel wounded four civilians who received medical treatment. As the head of the district police office, a large number of victims are avoided only thanks to the fact that the area is constantly under fire, and most of the inhabitants were forced to leave their homes." --Resup (talk) 23:42, 4 September 2014 (UTC)

This rebel video shows 9M79M missile fragment, OTR-21 Tochka U short rane ballistic missile, operating range 100 km. Charge weight is around 450 kg (i.e " a lot"). Date and place of the recording is unclear. --Resup (talk) 01:54, 5 September 2014 (UTC)

Lugansk

 * Russia commands to destroy the city of Lugansk Ukraine@War - decides an increase in random shelling of residential areas in Lugansk is by Russians, and increasingly "lurid" videos of the dead suggest "Russia is going to create a massacre in Lugansk" with shelling, right until the LPR defenses are worn down and the people can be "liberated from the Russian terror," like in happy Slavyansk. A tweet is cited claiming "From Gubarev's own website! "Don't pass up any opportunity to engage in some atrocity that can be blamed on the junta's fighters."." Wow, a tweet citing a guy's own website, can't be any flaws in that smoking gun admission. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:06, 15 August 2014 (UTC)

African mercenaries?
It may be a pure coincidence, but many of the narratives we have heard in Libya and Syria are popping up. Now we even have African mercenaries! Or African-American to be more exact. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 15:19, 17 August 2014 (UTC)
 * "foreigners fighting" narratives are always based on truth. {The numbers may be exaggerated). Any country that has had some minorities persecuted has had members of those flee to live somewhere else. When an insurgency or civil war occurs, in which his group is involved, some may decide to return and help out. In some cases children born and brought up in that other country have been taught to hate/want revenge, to the extent that they will go to fight. This is normal. But the assumption that a black face means African American indicates a total ignorance about Africa and the presence of large numbers of dark skinned people in other countries. What idiots!!! KatKan (talk) 23:44, 22 August 2014 (UTC)

Slovo o Polku Igoreve (Kievan Rus')
" Не лепо ли ны бяшетъ, братие,

начяти старыми словесы

трудныхъ повестий о пълку Игореве,

Игоря Святъславлича?

Slovo o Polku, Author unknown, Around 1185 c.e., Kievan Rus'

Well you unknown pointless bad force, may the force NOT be with you --Chingachgook (talk) 05:30, 21 August 2014 (UTC)

And ... ??? --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:50, 22 August 2014 (UTC)

Released. Roger. Released. Roger. Released. Roger.

--Chingachgook (talk) 11:03, 22 August 2014 (UTC)

Executing prisoners?
I have read multiple stories from the Novorossiyan side of prisoners being executed by Praviy Sector Battalions and also of eyes being gouged out. This is the time I come across a similar story from the Ukrainian side. We must however remember the First Rule of Massacre Investigations: Whoever has the evidence has the burden of proof!
 * Tortured by Kremlin-backed militants – Halya Coynash, Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group, 15.09.14
 * ''Nine bodies, probably Ukrainian soldiers, with signs of torture have been brought to the Zaporizhya morgue. A local source who wanted to remain anonymous has told Radio Svoboda the men had been taken prisoner by the Kremlin-backed militants in Donbas.  He provided over 100 photos to back the claims of torture.
 * ''The source said that at least three of the men had been hanged, and almost all had their eyes gauged out. Many had had their limbs and knees shot out, with 9 mm. bullets probably from a Makarov pistol. There were also knife wounds.

What makes the source believe they were probably Ukrainian soldiers? The fact that they were delivered to the same morgue? It only shows Ukrainian had possession of the bodies. What chain of events could have brought the bodies of captives held by NAF to this UA morgue? The time was in early September. It was a time of steady NAF progress. Ukraine forces did not just take over a NAF headquarters with a large POW prison with a dungeon full of executed bodies, or did they? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 22:35, 16 September 2014 (UTC)