Talk:Alleged poisoning of Alexei Navalny

Navalny poisoning claims
Is the suggestion (from Uglev) that Navalny's clothes/underwear were the likely means of the poisoning? And would that imply that the substance reported as being found on his clothes previously is the best lead we have at the moment.? --Diagonal (talk) 08:44, 4 September 2020 (UTC)

This substance is not listed here as a cholinesterase inhibitor.
 * NIH Listing

Uglev is a retired guy who worked on this 30 years ago, and is no longer in the loop. He is opposition-leaning, as well as news channel which interviewed him. So they just chatted about things, like on a talk show program, like of 1 hour or so length. His comments has to do with him saying that it is very difficult to poison somebody with Nk without affecting other people, as this is very toxic. He was wondeing aloud how at all that was possible, and came with the idea that it was applied to clothes. Then it will be absorbed more slowly and give him time to get from hotel to the plane. Since very small amount is needed, if it's on clothes, his line of thinking was that maybe there is a chance it won't affect others. But this is basically his educated guess, he is not in a position to really know what happened. He also talked about Nks, he does not really know what was there, or what could possibly be there. He is a chemical scientist who was in a military project. I do not think he ever has to do with any special services type things who might know what else is out there, somewhere. --Resup (talk) 09:51, 4 September 2020 (UTC)

The whole thing may be actually unknowable. German lab results probably mean that they found something bound to clolinesterase in blood samples that they get (from, maybe MS/CM tests they performed). But (the other side will say) that they are not confident in the chain of custody after Navalnyi left Russia. (That was the reason Rada commission did not believe Yushenko poisoning claim, for example, as it emerged that samples could have traveled to US, or somebody said that they could). The other side also likely have their blood samples. But, treatment could include blood transfusion --pretty sensible in severe poisoning case. (It is not known exactly how Navalnyi was treated in Russia and what exactly tests were done, apaart from a generic statement that it was checked for cholinesterase inhibitors --but not how it was checked). Cholinesterase levels themselves were also not reported by either side --Resup (talk) 11:00, 4 September 2020 (UTC)

Western labs
Basically the technique will tell you which molecules (and isotopes) are there, so they would know that. It's another matter that they do not say what is that they found, and also, how that thing got in there. It's not difficult to fake, take Nk off the shelf, dissolve one drop in a zillion amount of alcohol, put a drop of that in the sample, then go ahead and find it there. --Resup (talk) 14:49, 10 September 2020 (UTC)

Blame likelihoods
At this point, I have some doubts about both Western and Russian lab results (Western: chain of custody; Russian: strength of desire to investigate and openness in communicating results).

Without trustworthy results, hard to know. However it is clear that the Russian government had nothing to gain from arranging this; as opposed to the West. Local elites and 'men of the 90's' is another story, they had some "dogs in the race", with no real guarantee they will not do something bad and stupid. There is some circumstantial evidence pointing in that direction. Central authorities did not aggressively pushed for investigation, were slowing things down, or at least it is coming across that way; yet the attempt failed, yet they allowed Navalnyi to be transported to Germany. So it does not appear that central authorities arranged it, but they may be protective of local culprits which could be some 'pillars' of the system, toppling which may create serious upheavals. Such version of events seem to match most of what is being observed so far. External origins are not excluded; in which case in would need reluctance/shame of admitting that things are not under control and foreign agents can operate with impunity.

With all this, it would be better if lab results can be trusted and not messed up by politicians, whatever those politicians promote. --Resup (talk) 07:52, 15 September 2020 (UTC)
 * Noted, according to NY Times, Navalnyi will not cooperate with the Russian investigation. If this is indeed so, and is his best judgment on this matter, there is reluctance on both sides, not just on the Russia's side.

FWIW, Venediktov with a similar point: ''It's the same as with Nemtsov. Killed. Come on immediately ... Within two days, the FSB identified and arrested the perpetrators. After they began to unwind it, they ran into Geremeev, who did not open the door for them. Is it clear where next? Clear. Stop! The investigation was slapped on the hands. But first ... These guys could have gotten lost somewhere, in Chechnya, Ingushetia and so on. They were taken by a detachment sent from Moscow, I will remind, either the Alpha, or Vympel, or whoever. With the fight, by the way. They took them on the second day after the murder. '' --Resup (talk) 04:36, 20 September 2020 (UTC)