Prigozhin's march to Moscow

Prior Disagreements with Russian MoD

 * Disagreements about placing PMC under direct MoD control, signing of contracts with MoD required. (After it was over, Prigozhin claimed in a videoed interview that PMC was to be disbanded otherwise by July 1, and they prepared to protest in advance of that date).
 * Dissatisfaction with the war realities: losses, supplies, decisions taken. (Not uncommon but obviously do not justify a mutiny, and especially during a critical moment in that war, from the sidelines)
 * Conflict about the end of preferential ammo supply during the battle for Bakhmut (opolchenie at the time called it information mutiny, and noted his apparent political ambitions).
 * According to Kadyrov, Prigozhin's "chain of unsuccessful business deals" resulted in his bitterness/aggressiveness
 * We publish the first part of a long interview with Yevgeny Prigozhin - June 23, 2023
 * Dmitri @wartranslated on Twitter, June 23, 2023
 * ''Prigozhin released today a new interview going over the current state of affairs as well as looking back at the events preceding the start of the "SMO". In this first bit, he explains that the Donbas was plundered by Russians since 2014 and the 2022 war began for reasons very different from those advertised to the public.

Prior speculation, foreign sources

 * Discord leaks display battle between Wagner eminent Prigozhin and Russian army - The Air Media, May 5, 2023
 * Wagner boss 'offered Russian troop positions to Ukraine' - Joe Barnes, The Telegraph, May 15, 2023

Mutiny start

 * Prigozhin announced a missile attack on the rear camps of Wagner PMC, video, June 23, 2023
 * Prigozhin: next step will be ours, several audios published by his press service on telegram
 * Apparent "White Helmets" -like video feel is noted.
 * Next day after an anniversary of Nazi attack on the USSR in 1941
 * RU MoD denied the attack, called it "information provocation"

End of mutiny
Surovikin appealed for the end of conflict. Criminal cases were opened. Presidential address to the nation indicated that tough measures may be taken. Some high-ranking military figures, including dep. min. MoD Evkurov, dep. HQ chief Alekseev, tried to negotiate. Opolchenie figures, Kadyrov (1, 2, 3) were sharply critical of the mutiny. Eventually, a deal was reached during negotiations with Lukashenko. "Wagner" fighters to sign contracts with MoD. Prigozhin may leave to Belarus. Criminal cases to be dropped.
 * Negotiations recollection, according to Lukashenko

Reported casualties and losses
It is claimed that 15 were killed, mostly pilots.
 * Russian military

It is said that 6 helicopters and IL 22 plane were shot down:
 * 3 x Mi-8MPTR (electronic warfare, unarmed)
 * 1 x Mi-8
 * 1 x Ka-52
 * 1 x Mi-35
 * 1 x IL-18(22) VZPU (reserve aerial command, admitted to be in error, compensation to pilot families promised)


 * PMC
 * Ka-52 helicopter hit the target on the highway near Voronezh

Western disinformation

 * How To Plant Propaganda: "Putin has been weakened. Russia is crumbling." - Moon of Alabama, June 27, 2023

Aftermath

 * FROM PUGACHEV TO LEBED – THE MUZHIK REBELLION FIZZLES OUT WITHOUT BLOODSHED, PRIGOZHIN TO EXILE - John Helmer, June 24, 2023

Analysis

 * United Russia - Black Mountain Analysis, June 25, 2023
 * Prigozhin's Farce Is Over And It Is Clear Who Has Won - Moon of Alabama, June 26, 2023
 * Russo-Ukrainian War: The Wagner Uprising - Big Serge, June 26, 2023
 * WAS PRIGOZHIN’S MUTINY A WESTERN INTELLIGENCE OP DERAILED BY RUSSIA’S SPIES? - Larry Johnson, June 26, 2023
 * Prigozhin's Failed "Columbine" - Kevin Batcho, June 26, 2023
 * Putin Wins – on All Counts - Pepe Escobar, Strategic Culture, June 26, 2023