Talk:Alleged Chemical Attack, August 21, 2013/U.N. Investigator Response/Report

Speculation

 * Exclusive: U.N. Report Will Point to Assad Regime in Massive Chemical Attack – Colum Lynch, Foreign Policy, September 11, 2013
 * ''U.N. inspectors have collected a "wealth" of evidence on the use of nerve agents that points to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad using chemical weapons against his own people, according to a senior Western official.


 * ''The inspection team, which is expected on Monday to present U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon with a highly anticipated report on a suspected Aug. 21 nerve agent attack in the suburbs of Damascus, will not directly accuse the Syrian regime of gassing its own people, according to three U.N.-based diplomats familiar with the investigation. But it will provide a strong circumstantial case -- based on an examination of spent rocket casings, ammunition, and laboratory tests of soil, blood, and urine samples -- that points strongly in the direction of Syrian government culpability.


 * UN report will confirm Syria chemical weapons use –AFP, Friday 13 Sep 2013
 * ''UN experts will confirm in a report to be released next week that chemical weapons were used in an attack near Damascus, UN leader Ban Ki-moon predicted Friday.


 * ''"I believe the report will be an overwhelming report that the chemical weapons was used," said Ban who also launched a new outspoken attack on Syria's President Bashar al-Assad.


 * ''Ban also gave a UN estimate that 1,400 people were killed in an August 21 attack which led to western threats of a military strike on Assad's forces.

It is very dangerous to say chemical weapons were used. They should stick to saying chemical agents or weapons grade chemical agents were used. The UN should not speak about weapons unless they can identify the delivery system with 100% certainty. Is that just found sarin, then just as likely it could have been planted. If this was a false flag attack, it was done by a huge conspiracy with almost unlimited resources. The UN chemical experts just are not qualified to deal with it. They assume that people ("activists") are telling them the truth, when they should assume that everyone is lying to them. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 17:38, 13 September 2013 (UTC)
 * Thanks, Petri. I was about to bring a link to Lynch's article. It made me want to puke on Robert Menendez. Whether the official or the actual UN team is to blame, this is a horrible picture. They were "happy" with the amount of stuff they could point at "the regime" without explicitly pointing at them. A "nerve agent," can't tell which one, but from the finer points of that blank spot, you can see "the author." Very regimey characteristics, some Shia DNA, speaks Persian with a Russian accent, etc. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:47, 14 September 2013 (UTC)


 * It seems possible this isn't even based on their work at all, but a way for some unnamed official to alert the inspectors what they're expected to find or say. You can say otherwise and get us grumpy with you for showing us wrong, or you can find a way to mumble something that sounds a bit like this. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:00, 14 September 2013 (UTC)


 * Syria 'chemical weapons' crisis: LIVE UPDATES
 * Friday, September 13
 * ''17:35 GMT: Speaking by phone to AP from the Netherlands the head of the UN chemical weapons inspection team says he has completed his report on Syria and will deliver it to the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon over the weekend.


 * ''"It’s done, but when to present it is up to the Secretary General," he said.


 * Preempting The Next Round of Lies Against Syria – Tony Cartalucci, September 14, 2013
 * What the UN report on Syria will say & what the liars in the West will claim it says.
 * ''Relying entirely on the momentum of its massive media networks and their ability to "will" reality into any shape they please, headlines such as "United Nations' Syria chemical weapons report "overwhelming," shamelessly attempt to link two out of context statements by UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon regarding the Syria government's "crimes against humanity" and the confirmed use of chemical weapons in Damascus Syria, to place in the mind of readers assigned blame for the attacks.

Analysis of findings
The report was released on September 16, 2013. The pdf is here (3.5 MB).

At the beginning of the PDF we have three pages of Ban-Ki Moon intro and Sellström transmittal letter before the report starts. I suggest we use the page numbers of the PDF as reference, which will be three higher than printed on the report (but not the appendices) pages. --CE (talk) 23:56, 17 September 2013 (UTC)

At the moment the UN report is impossible to evaluate because no details are given of the lab tests on blood and urine samples. The environmental samples would have been easy to fake for insurgents with access to small quantities of "kitchen sarin". The blood samples would be more difficult to fake convincingly: in genuine victims examined at 7 days we'd expect to see that sarin metabolites are not detectable, that cholinesterase activity is markedly reduced and that (with a clever technique that splits sarin from its binding site), sarin could be identified as the molecule causing this reduced cholinesterase activity. In faked samples, cholinesterase activity would also be reduced (ex vivo effect) but sarin breakdown products would be present at unfeasibly high concentrations for 7 days post-exposure.

Let's hope that over the next few days people like Dan Kaszeta and academics who are working in this field will publicly demand more information from Sellstrom. --pmr9 (talk) 12:21, 19 September 2013 (UTC)

Symptoms and clinical signs
Why did so few patients report diarrhoea or have miosis? Eye inflammation is not a feature of sarin exposure. --Pmr9 (talk) 22:22, 17 September 2013 (UTC)

Dan Kaszeta has put some comments on the report on his website (http://strongpointsecurity.co.uk/site/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/D-Kaszeta-Comments-on-UN-Report.pdf). He notes that the history and signs are not consistent with what is known for sarin exposure. Miosis should have been detectable in severely affected patients even at 7 days. Patients reported having had convulsions without having had other symptoms such as vomiting and diarrhoea. 78% of patients reported loss of consciousness, which would usually be a terminal event in sarin poisoning. He asks "Is it possible that we are looking at exposure to multiple causes of injury? Were some of the examined victims exposed to other things in addition to Sarin?" --Pmr9 (talk) 09:35, 20 September 2013 (UTC)
 * "78% of patients reported loss of consciousness, which would usually be a terminal event in sarin poisoning." Definitely interesting. I have it downloaded now and read - excellent, recommended reading at a slim 7 pages. On that point, I do note there was a "sense of impending doom" also associated. One reading that some might go for is this: the sarin was supposed to kill them (as the doom proves) but Allah saved them (all but the 1,400) in a mass miracle. The revolution is blessed, but not so blessed as to threaten a serious crossing of that ol' red line and hopefully secure the next blessing in line. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:25, 22 September 2013 (UTC)

Metabloites
The UN report states that "All biomedical samples were collected by local medical professionals under supervision of UN inspectors", but "the the assistance of local doctors and nurses ... reduced the time spent for collecting and labelling samples individually". In other words, there wasn't one on one supervision of the collection of blood samples.

Blood and urine samples were collected 5 days after the alleged incident in Moadamiyah and 7 days after the incident in Zamalka. The tests done on these samples are not stated: the results are just given as "positive" or "negative" for "Sarin and Sarin signatures" with no quantitation. In the environmental samples it looks as if mass spectrometry was used to measure sarin breakdown products, mainly isopropyl methylphosponate (IMPA and diisopropyl methylphosphonate (DIMP) and other "interesting chemicals"  As measurement of sarin metabolites is the only test that can be used in both blood and urine, I'm assuming that this was what the labs did and the comments below are based on this.

In animal studies the metabolites IMPA and DIMP have a half-life of about 45 minutes in plasma (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18269798) (http://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/toxprofiles/tp119.pdf). Studies in human victims of the 1995 Tokyo sarin attack are consistent with this: plasma levels fell by half between 1.5 h and 2.5 h (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9851684). The urinary half-life of sarin metabolites in rats is estimated as 3.7 hours, and elimination is complete by 2 days (http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=9953&page=177). For biomarkers of sarin exposure several days after exposure, measuring inhibition of blood cholinesterases is more useful than measuring sarin metabolites (http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=11064&page=28). In the Tokyo attack, this was detectable 3 weeks after exposure in individuals who had been symptomatic.

The UN report doesn't explain how (assuming that their test were based on sarin metabolites) these metabolites could have been detectable in plasma 5 to 7 days after exposure given their plasma half-life of 1 hour or less. Concentrations are not reported and the detection limit of the assay is not given. It would be usual for the lab to report this information. At the very least, we should be able to assess whether the measured levels are within the range compatible with recovery.

Possible explanations:

(1) More than 90% of the individuals studied had been exposed to sarin within the last two days, perhaps from contaminated clothes or skin, but this exposure did not cause symptoms.

(2) there was deliberate contamination of the blood and urine collection bottles (all hair samples were negative).

Pmr9 (talk) 22:22, 17 September 2013 (UTC) minor edits 18 September 20:13 UTC


 * Pmr9, thanks and welcome! That's fascinating stuff. I'm behind here and haven't looked into any of that, so ... I've been hearing the signs can be seen for up to six weeks, must be by the second method, "measuring inhibition of blood cholinesterases." But they used the first method even though it was days too late to turn up valid samples? I wonder why they would choose to even do that. If what you found is true, someone really needs to clarify and explain that to the world, that the investigators confirmed contamination or poisoning well after the alleged gas attack, and essentially proved a rebel frame-up. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:33, 17 September 2013 (UTC)

Note: I think most of this should be moved eventually to a spot that doesn't exist yet. But this science is fascinating. I'm not real good with it, but ... Pmr9, I'm curious, is this something you know much about, just googling around, or somewhere between? Just googling around, I find hard-to-parse, jargon-laden sentences that seem to bear out what you're is saying. The abstract in the Tokyo attack doesn't mention hours, and I couldn't see where to read any further. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:18, 18 September 2013 (UTC)

This PDF report about US military experiments that intentionally poisoned naval personnel with Sarin (p 7) says the slower metabolizing (-)-isomer of Sarin (the more harmful, they think) has a half-life of "several hours." From there one metabolite is DIMP, which the body rapidly turns to IMPA, and this is what turns up in the plasma of the Japan victims. If I follow... this means after that time, levels would be about half, the rest turned to DIMP and whatever else. The rest breaks dow, IIRC half the remaining half in the next x hours, half the remaining quarter in the next half-life, until basically zero. If we take a 5 hour half-life, It'll be to about 1/32 of the original amount within 24 hours, 1/256 in two days, probably undetectable after three, a fraction I shan't compute. But the last of the following processes might continue churning on a lower and lower level for ... a few more hours pas that, maybe? So what would they be seeing five and seven days after? Or alternately, what do we have wrong? --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:18, 18 September 2013 (UTC)

http://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/toxprofiles/tp119-c2.pdf (apparently related to a report above and possibly relevant, a gender difference in metabolism rates, in some species anyway):
 * A sex difference in the rate of conversion of DIMP to its primary metabolite was observed after intravenous administration of 14C-DIMP in rats (Bucci et al. 1992). The males appeared to convert DIMP to IMPA more actively than the females. The apparent plasma elimination half-life of DIMP was about 45 minutes in males and up to 250 minutes in females. Both the rate and total excretion of the administered dose in urine were also higher in male rats. However, this sex difference was not observed for orally-administered DIMP in minks (Bucci et al. 1992; Weiss et al. 1994).
 * By the way, just to be more sure, I think someone should try this on several varieties of rabbits, with a large pool of subjects from each, for greater statistical depth. Then also gophers, horses, and dolphins. You never know. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:18, 18 September 2013 (UTC)

I hadn't come across the report on Project SHAD, and didn't realize there are two isomers of sarin with different half-lives. It looks as if this wasn't reported for sarin until 2000 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0041008X00990604), so earlier studies didn't take it into account. Without special measures to separate the (-) isomer, sarin would be a 50/50 mixture of the two isomers. In the study by Spruit (2000) (Toxicology and Applied Pharmacology 169, 249 –254) the half-life of the slowly-eliminated (-) isomer in guinea-pigs is estimated as 58 minutes. The Project SHAD report states "Animal studies indicate that (-)-sarin is rapidly distributed throughout the body, within minutes, but eliminated very slowly with a half-life of several hours." No reference is given for the "several hours", and I can't find any other study than that by Spruit (2000). So we still have a working estimate for the total half-life of sarin and its metabolites in plasma as less than 2 hours, roughly consistent with values on the 3 individuals in Tokyo for whom blood samples were taken at 2 time points. We also have studies in both rats and Tokyo humans that indicate that sarin metabolites are not detectable in urine beyond 2 days after exposure. To illustrate what this means, assume an exponential decay curve with half-life of 4.8 hours. Plasma levels will fall 1000 fold in 2 days, and by a factor of one billion in six days. There has to be some other explanation for how these metabolites could be detected seven days after exposure. At the very least, one would have expected Sellstrom to comment on this remarkable finding. One possibility is that home-made sarin could contain some by-product that is stable and only slowly metabolized to IMPA and DIMP.

Disclaimer: my research is on metabolic biomarkers of disease risk in humans. I don't know anything about sarin beyond what I've read, and I have no experience of administering it to small furry animals. --pmr9 18 September 2013 14:20 UTC
 * "We also have studies in both rats and Tokyo humans that indicate that sarin metabolites are not detectable in urine beyond 2 days after exposure." This. I think. Augh, I need to just look closer t the report. Damn its non word-searchability. Sorry, I'll have more to say later. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:12, 19 September 2013 (UTC)
 * On the disclaimer, not necessary, but thanks. :D --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:12, 19 September 2013 (UTC)

Testing for cholinesterase inhibition or sarin metabolites?
As Pmr9 stated above, "For biomarkers of sarin exposure several days after exposure, measuring inhibition of blood cholinesterases is more useful than measuring sarin metabolites " And he says it's not stated what method was used, so it could be that. If it was the other, that would mean they were exposed later than alleged. As interesting as that is, I suppose unless we can find something that rules it out, I'll presume they tested cholinesterases inhibition. Or rather, that's surely what they'd say if pressed by a real scientist, so we may as well presume for them that's their story, true or not. If not true, it'll be on us or whoever to show it. As a total noob to this science, I might be missing something, but that seems the right course for now (not that we have A single course or anything). --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:56, 20 September 2013 (UTC)


 * Cholinesterase inhibition is measured only in blood and it's not specific for sarin. Measurements would also need careful standardization against control individuals from the same population.  So as they tested blood and urine, and reported finding "signatures of sarin" it's reasonable to infer that they measured metabolites.  Dan Kaszeta also thinks this (see his comments linked above).  I don't think they can just bullshit if pressed further to explain what they did; there will be a chain of people from the technicians to the lab directors who can document what was done.  The directors of the four labs should have signed off on this report as it relies entirely on their work.  The way that the report is written with detailed description of field survey methodology and no information about the lab analyses suggests that the lab directors didn't get to see or comment on the draft.
 * --pmr9 (talk) 12:37, 20 September 2013 (UTC)


 * I know there's a wide correlation between what's in blood and what's in urine, but ... well, if that means a urine test can only be for the metabolites method, then it's true and that must be what they did. And that would be quite interesting. I just read Kaszeta's new report, and he bemoans the lack of specificity. He seems to feel it should have been matabolites tested for, as the clearest signs of Sarin in particular, but maybe they used the less specific AChe method. He "presumes" they used the former, but "perhaps" it was the latter. I'm attempting further contact with Mr. Kaszeta now. This is an issue I'll be asking about. Instead of further research, I'll hope for a response there and share what I can here. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:21, 22 September 2013 (UTC)


 * The first report of lab tests for sarin in Syria that I can find was Fabius's statement on 4 June (http://basedoc.diplomatie.gouv.fr/vues/Kiosque/FranceDiplomatie/kiosque.php?fichier=bafr2013-06-05.html#Chapitre2) that "sarin residue in blood and urine samples taken from six victims [some apparently from Ghouta] proves beyond doubt that they were exposed to this gas". The samples were also analysed at the UK's Defence Science lab at Porton Down, where they were reported to have tested positive but the lab and the UK govermnet have refused to give any further details (http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/2013/06/french-sarin-detection-syria).  It looks as if the French lab and Porton Down are the two labs used by OPCW for biomedical sample analysis.  Government labs like Porton Down (under the UK ministry of defence) are of course harder to get information out of than university labs.


 * A quick update on the science. In the last 10 years or so new methods have been developed for detecting sarin exposure that can be used up to several weeks after exposure.  These methods work by detecting adducts of sarin with the enzyme BChE, or IMPA with albumin (the most abundant protein in blood).  These methods are used in blood: they wouldn't work in urine unless the patient had a disease causing protein to leak into urine.


 * Suppose that someone had access to kitchen sarin and wanted to contaminate blood and urine samples so that they'd give positive results. An amateur would just add kitchen sarin to the blood and urine collection tubes  This would give positive test results, but the giveaway would be the presence of free sarin (if the lab were suspicious enough to test for it) and unfeasibly high concentrations of free IMPA.  An expert who understood what the labs would be testing for would incubate kitchen sarin overnight with human albumin and human BChE (both commercially available), remove/separate the sarin and use the modified albumin and BChE to contaminate the blood collection tubes.  The urine tubes would be left alone, or contaminated only with traces of IMPA.  This would give test results exactly like real exposure, and it would require only a few mg of sarin and someone with graduate level biochemistry skills.  Even better would be to inject the "victims" with the modified albumin and BChE (after treatment with a decontaminating agent).  Injection-grade IMPA-albumin adduct could easily be prepared as IMPA, unlike sarin, is commercially available without restrictions.


 * Update: I hadn't come across this passage in a WSJ article of 25 August (http://wikileakssupportersforum.com/thread-570.html): "That winter, the Saudis also started trying to convince Western governments that Mr. Assad had crossed what President Barack Obama a year ago called a "red line": the use of chemical weapons. Arab diplomats say Saudi agents flew an injured Syrian to Britain, where tests showed sarin gas exposure.". If true, this would rule out contamination of the blood collection tube.  If the sample tested positive for IMPA-albumin adduct (Porton Down has published a paper on this method), then the only possible explanations are: exposure to sarin, exposure to IMPA, or injection with adduct.  --pmr9 (talk) 12:49 23 September 2013 (UTC)
 * Occam's razor does not apply to murder investigations. You must follow Holmes' advice: How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 14:25, 23 September 2013 (UTC)


 * I've focused on the lab tests because I think they're pivotal evidence. All other information about the 21 August incident is consistent with the hypothesis that there was no mass casualty event in Ghouta on 21 August, let alone one caused by large-scale release of sarin.  But these 36 individuals interviewed describe losing most of their families to a gas attack, and their stories are apparently confirmed by the lab tests. --pmr9 (talk) 21:54 22 September 2013 (UTC)

Hair samples
As Pmr9 notes above, all hair samples were tested negative for Sarin (page 18). On page 16 we learn that there have been three hair samples, two from Moadamiyah and one from Zamalka. In the tables in the Appendix, what I can find are four hair samples, tested negative, and resulting from August 25 (page 37). Apparently those are control samples, maybe from the team. --CE (talk) 23:56, 17 September 2013 (UTC)
 * odd, they mention the three hair samples being negative, but those don't seem to appear in the charts. As you say, there are four hairs listed, apparently controls, taken before any field visit. Blood (plasma) and urine samples are listed in the later charts subject-by-subject, but perhaps just because it would be such an un-used column, hair isn't there. As for the negative, may not mean much. I looked into it. This hair site says normal growth rate is 1.25 cm per month. That would be about 0.25 cm in the app. 6-day span involved. Not much. this commercial site sells drug testing services, and they say drugs will appear after the hair has enough time to grow out: 7-10 days. At five and seven days, nothing should be expected to show up, even if they were poisoned. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:17, 18 September 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, but shouldn't the hair be contaminated in the first place? Wasn't that even an argument of one of the experts saying it might not be Sarin, that the people treating the victims without proper protection would get affected themselves because the stuff concentrates in hair and clothes? Well, I don't know. Just an observation. I think we can at least conclude that the charts aren't complete. --CE (talk) 14:55, 18 September 2013 (UTC)
 * Contaminated like everything but washed, etc. It's the biological indicators you get from the hair tissue that last. I think that's why they do it. Best for things over the last months and years, but not so good for earlier this week. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:02, 19 September 2013 (UTC)

Analysis of report

 * Dan Kaszeta
 * Observations on the United Nation Report released 16 September 2013 – Dan Kaszeta, 19 September 2013

This is a brief, readable report, based on solid knowledge and skepticism. There's no good reason not to read this. Some good quotes below. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:32, 23 September 2013 (UTC)
 * My previous skepticism on the use of Sarin was based on video evidence and interpretation of signs and symptoms of exposure...
 * Denis O'Brien, Pascal Zanders, and others have seen and said the same thing. Apparently someone in the area has blood that tests as if touched by Sarin, but that seems to have little to do with the masses of struggling and dead people we saw on August 21. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:32, 23 September 2013 (UTC)


 * By definition, dead people cannot be interviewed.  Since Sarin is highly lethal, the people with the most severe signs and symptoms are unavailable for interview.


 * Is it possible that we are looking at exposure to multiple causes of injury? Were some of the examined victims exposed to other things in addition to Sarin?


 * Since a direct test for Sarin is unlikely to have been useful, I really wish that the report would specify how the blood and urine samples were actually tested. Presumably, the OPCW labs tested for biomarkers such as IMPA and methylphosphonic acid (MPA) ... a very clear indication of Sarin exposure. ... Or perhaps they tested for acetylcholinesterase (AChe) inhibition.  AChe levels would be an indicator of exposure to toxic organophosphorous compounds (which include, but are not limited to the nerve agents) or carbamates, a chemical family which also includes some medicines and some pesticides. Since the environmental samples were analyzed quite closely for MPA, IMPA, and related compounds, I presume that the blood testing did so as well.  But I feel that the report should have been specific in this regard.  If IMPA was detected in blood samples, that is as equally compelling as evidence as the environmental samples.


 * Loss of consciousness: Generally, loss of consciousness is considered to be a very grave sign in nerve agent poisoning, happening shortly before death. How is it 78% of the patients had lost consciousness? The sample victims include at least two patients (patients SN 32 and 34) with positive blood results, but no other distinctive nerve signs or symptoms.