Talk:"Scud Missile" Campaign on Aleppo

Missile Directions
In this running campaign, there are numerous strike areas, some images, etc. Ideally, at some point, we would find the right images and somehow determine, in one case at least, which direction the projectile responsible came in from. I'm discovering this isn't always easy or possible, but long-distance firings should be easier, with more lateral and less vertical travel. From Damascus will equal south. From rebel areas around Aleppo, the directions will vary. But this is just a note, just "ideally." So far, it seems hard to say, from the images I've seenof Jabal Badro and Ard Al-Hamra. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:34, 6 March 2013 (UTC)

Scud Firing Witnesses
This is interesting: HRW reportsafter visiting three sites:
 * Human Rights Watch did not find weapons remnants at the attack sites, and so was unable to identify the exact weapons used. However, a group of local activists in the Damascus countryside reported on their Facebook page that they had observed missiles being launched toward the north before three of the four strikes.
 * At 9:38 p.m. on February 18, the local coordination council in Yabroud posted on its Facebook site that it had observed a “scud missile” in the sky over Yabroud at 9:05 p.m., heading toward northern Syria. Witnesses in Tel Rifat told Human Rights Watch that a missile hit the town around 9:30 p.m. on February 18.

How Many Scud Attacks and When?
The following was just copied from elsewhere and builds on the material there. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:41, 27 February 2013 (UTC) So we have:


 * Feb. 18/19, three missiles, as covered, Jabal Badro, Tal Rifaat, Al-Bab - and I'm still not 100% they all happened at the same time or just within 24 hours. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:27, 27 February 2013 (UTC)
 * Al-Bab was reported hit at midnight, but by mortars, not a Scud. My bad. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:34, 6 March 2013 (UTC)

"Syria's opposition and activists have accused the regime army of firing three powerful missiles at Aleppo city from military base 155 near Damascus on Friday. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says at least 58 people, among them 36 children, were killed when the surface-to-surface missiles struck the Tariq al-Bab district in eastern Aleppo city. The strikes triggered severe condemnation from Washington which described the incident as "the latest demonstrations of the Syrian regime's ruthlessness and its lack of compassion for the Syrian people it claims to represent".''
 * Feb. 22: Daily Star, Feb.25:

And that seems to be about it. These two dates, apparently two sets of synchronized attacks. It's not clear if Tariq al-Bab is the same as Al-Bab. If so, hit twice, it seems. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:27, 27 February 2013 (UTC)
 * Ard AL-Hamra, Wikimapia-again, northeast, north of Hanano, which is north of Jabal al-Badro. And here's Tariq Al-Bab on wikimpaia. Just south of JAB. Some overall range, but little spread in chosen areas at the end of that long range. OR, short range missiles fired from northeast of Aleppo. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:47, 27 February 2013 (UTC)
 * strike areas about 4-6 km apart, depending where. Some mid-points of 2-3 km from each in rebel-held Hanano. Is it short-range rockets this time, like the ones at the university? --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:02, 27 February 2013 (UTC)


 * HRW reports: AP, Feb. 26:
 * At least 141 people, half of them children, were killed when the Syrian military fired at least four missiles into the northern province of Aleppo last week, Human Rights Watch said Tuesday.

How Many Nationwide?
This is the best page to discuss the national campaign, as I already started on the front page. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:39, 7 March 2013 (UTC)

90?
Davutoğlu: ''“The Syrian regime first used snipers, then artillery, tanks and then jets, helicopters. Now it is using Scud missiles. Al-Assad’s forces have fired 85-90 Scud missiles in the last two months,” the foreign minister said in an interview with private broadcaster NTV.'' --CE (talk) 02:05, 6 March 2013 (UTC)
 * Interesting! I wonder how so many went unreported? I wonder why it's 85-90. Do they have an exact count, or not? Are there five launches they're not sure of? But the other 85 they're sure? And how? The previous article, Feb. 21, says:
 * Syria’s government has fired more than 40 Scud-type ballistic missiles at rebel positions in the country’s north in the last two months, according to intelligence Turkey has gathered from the region. Damascus began to use Scuds at the end of December after it lost control of its northern provinces amid high numbers of casualties to its security forces. The Syrian army especially targeted Aleppo and Idlib, a Turkish official told the Hürriyet Daily News, adding that no missile has yet fallen close to the frontier with Turkey.

So, according to that official, presumably, "intelligence" about these then-40 attacks was "gathered." Further questions: why was one of these fired into Iraq the same day they first entered the fight alongside Syria? Were some of these Scuds fired at Raqqah during the rebel conquest? Was it two of these that hit Aleppo University? Etc. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:24, 6 March 2013 (UTC)

Tally of Reported Scuds
85-90 sounds way high, but the older report of 40-ish might be right for how many Scuds (or similar?) have been reported as being fired. There have been several official "confirmations" of often several missiles per allegation. This is a spot for collecting distinct sub-tallies, from Dec. (or before?) up to the relevant dates (and to now). And of course, how well-supported the claims are or aren't. This area is not a top priority. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:26, 6 March 2013 (UTC)

Rueters
 * Mid-December, first launches: "more than six," not disputed.
 * (anonymous NATO official): "Allied intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets have detected the launch of a number of unguided, short-range ballistic missiles inside Syria this week. Trajectory and distance travelled indicate they were Scud-type missiles."
 * [...]
 * The New York Times, which initially reported Syria's use of the missiles, quoted one official as saying more than six had been fired at the rebels. Another official said the missiles had been launched from the Damascus area at targets in northern Syria, the Times said. U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters they would not dispute the Times report. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:39, 7 March 2013 (UTC)
 * A Scud with a 300 km range missile is categorized as a Short-range ballistic missile. A missile without guidance would by definition be a simple rocket, but I guess they mean no (GPS-based) terminal guidance. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 14:17, 8 March 2013 (UTC)
 * That's what I thought. Unguided Scud missile is a contradiction. They're considered inaccurate, but that's for a missile, so not unguided. The official is not too technical. The info could still be legit, but I'm not convinced. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:53, 8 March 2013 (UTC)

February 25: 4 Scuds, 2 other missiles. Local Coordination Committees of Syria: Syria Today:
 * The Local Coordination Committees also documented 384 points that were targeted by shells across Syria, including 26 points that were shelled by regime warplanes, 4 points using Scud missiles, 2 points using surface-to-surface missiles, 3 points using barrel bombs, 3 point with vacuum bombs, 157 points using heavy caliber artillery, 93 points with mortars and 99 with rockets.

Missiles in Idilb and around Damascus. All Scud instances:
 * Raqqa: Maadan: The number of martyrs due to the shelling using Scud missiles has risen to 11 martyrs and dozens of wounded most of them are reportedly in critical conditions ... Dozens of martyrs and wounded due to the shelling with a scud missile causing the destruction of an entire alley ... A Scud missile was fired at Maadan town and another at Sabkha town ... video: Scud missile hit on the ground in Khatita, Deir Ezzor

Tally of Visual Missile Evidence
I'm not saying there isn't any, because I haven't even seen that many of the videos. But it does seem there's surprisingly little missile debris shown for any of these 40-90 explosions being caused by Scuds. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:47, 8 March 2013 (UTC)

The Campaign(s)

 * Syria Denies: Daily Star, Feb.25
 * The regime "denies the use by Syrian forces of Scud missiles in battles against the armed opposition," Syrian Information Minister Omran al-Zohbi said in an interview with Arabic-language Russia Today.


 * Washington Post, Feb. 26: "Ballistic missile strikes on Aleppo signal new escalation in Syria war"
 * Landing minutes and about a mile apart in two densely populated neighborhoods, they left scenes of devastation more closely resembling those of an earthquake, with homes pulverized beyond recognition, people torn to shreds in an instant and what had once been thriving communities reduced to mountains of rubble.
 * And isn't that exactly what terrorist attacks always do? Someone please help-the rebels got hold os Scuds or equivalent. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:27, 27 February 2013 (UTC)


 * Press TV, Feb. 26: "US Scud missile remarks aim to create new crisis for Syria: MP"
 * And isn't that exactly what false-flag terrorism attacks always do? It's like Bosnia on steroids. F$@*ing sick. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:27, 27 February 2013 (UTC)


 * HRW's report: AP, Feb. 26:
 * "Just when you think things can't get any worse, the Syrian government finds ways to escalate its killing tactics," Solvang said.
 * And there's the laundering. Hey, HRW! Four days this time. How's the investigation of Aqrab coming? Nearly three months now... --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:27, 27 February 2013 (UTC)

Rebel rockets
Rocket launched by Free Syrian Army fighters towards forces loyal to Syria's President Assad in Aleppo, 19 Feb 2013.
 * pic.twitter.com/ypgi71LxAz
 * Hm! Wish that could be verified or located, with directions established. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:58, 28 February 2013 (UTC)

Scuds to Iraq?
This sounds extremely unlikely:
 * Earlier on Friday, the conflict once again spilled into neighboring Iraq after a Scud missile fired from Syria landed near a village in Iraq's Nineveh province, causing no significant damage. Last time rockets fired from Syrian territory hit Iraq, in September 2012, they killed a 5-year-old girl.
 * Iraqi army helped Syrian government retake border checkpoint - reports – RT, March 02, 2013

If this were true, it should be easy to verify. It is possible a rocket was fired, but I doubt is was a Scud. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 03:52, 2 March 2013 (UTC)


 * Extremely fascinating. It seems quite a thing to just make up, especially making up a precedent too. Will check, in time. Maybe tonight. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:41, 2 March 2013 (UTC)


 * Reuters March 1, 2013:
 * A Scud missile fired from Syrian territory landed near a village in Iraq's Nineveh province on Friday, causing no damage but terrifying its inhabitants who fled, the mayor said, identifying the rocket as Russian-made.
 * [...]
 * "A Russian-made Scud landed near the village of Yoush Tapa, 3 km from the Iraqi-Syrian border between Telafar and Baaj," said Abdul Aal Abbas, the mayor of Telafar. "There were no casualities or damage, but it created fear among the Turkuman population of that village and they fled their houses".
 * ''Nineveh governorate spokesman Qahtan Sami said security forces had also said the rocket was of Russian provenance. -

Al-Baaj -at least 30 km from the border, not 3. Tal Afar is a mid-sized city 75 km WNW of there. I did not locate Yoush Tapa, but "between" these towns is clearly not 3 km in. --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:53, 3 March 2013 (UTC)

The Guardian reports this too and adds:
 * The report came as Syrian activists across the border in Deir Ezzor filmed what they claimed to be a deep crater created by a Scud missile attack.

That's 163 km from Baaj, 235 from Tel Afar. Also, the re-taken crossing. --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:53, 3 March 2013 (UTC)


 * Odd story from Ya'rubiah: -- Petri Krohn (talk) 21:15, 4 March 2013 (UTC)
 * Iraqi gunmen kill 42 Syrian soldiers, 7 Iraqis: officials
 * At least 42 Syrian soldiers and seven Iraqis have been killed in an ambush attack by Iraqi gunmen near the two countries sharing border, Iraqi army officers say.


 * How many people will now be cheering the ubiquitous Sunni gunmen of Iraq? All this Iraq involvement deserves its own page too, doesn't it? The officials and "handing back" the soldiers is an odd aspect I don't get. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:02, 5 March 2013 (UTC)

Area map. Yoush Tapa areas - southern one if between the towns, and 3 km meant 30km in. So nearer to Al-Baaj. The northern one, one possibility, if 3 km in, between and north of the towns. Location relative to Mt. Sinjar would be useful. At the crossing to the north, the joint Syrian-Iraqi securing of the border from NATO's contra proxies. Firing at rebels across the border, who had whatever weapons they had just over there. Can a Scud be fired only a few kilometers even? I'm hazy on things like this. But this time, an Iraqi mayor says it's a Scud, Russian, not Syrian made. Hmmm.... who is this mayor? Maybe he's right, maybe not. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:17, 6 March 2013 (UTC)

Syrian missile inventory
Here is a video of Syrian medium range missiles. I do not think any of these are real Scuds, although SyrPer calls them by that name. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 14:11, 4 March 2013 (UTC)
 * الفيديو الذي أرعب الناتو الجيش العربي السوري The Syrian Army