Talk:Crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17/Almaz-Antay investigation

Almaz-Antay press conference
Russian concern Almaz-Antay held a press conference, aimed at quashing sanctions against them, to say that (if it was Buk, then) it was Buk missile 9M38M or 9M38M1 with missile warhead 9М314 or 9М314М1, because only those have X shape elements. That was taken off production in 1999, while the concern was formed in 2002, so they did not provide this missile to anybody; but Ukraine has it. Their conclusion is based on publicly available photographs; they also participate in the investigation and has exclusive competences. They say that Snezhnoe is inconsistent as that will take cabin off at once; offer to do an experiment to prove/establish who is responsible (an experiment seems right thing to do-and interesting how you account for movement)- interfax. They seem to repeat the version given in Novaia Gazeta (discussion), placing launch in Zaroshenskoe. They essentially say that some 40% of elements go perpendicular to the missile and so it needs to be on intersecting course to (have a chance to) account for all the damage. --Resup (talk) 13:33, 2 June 2015 (UTC)
 * Severe damage to the flap, illustrated in NG, with less damage to the wing, raises a possibility of a multiple event. --Resup (talk) 16:33, 2 June 2015 (UTC)
 * Their presentation is on youtube now in Russian and with English translation. --CE (talk) 15:11, 3 June 2015 (UTC)

Full presentation by Almaz-Antey ( Buk-m2 manufacturer ) about the incident. Still only in Russian. Unfortunately even in Russian somebody the diagrams are not self-explanatory. But main arguments are clear. It includes calculations of the attack angle of the rocket in order to cause such damage. - --Antidyatel (talk) 09:41, 9 June 2015 (UTC)

They say it was incoming at about 78 degrees; they reject Snezhnoe at 20 degrees; schematically in 2D cones are smth like this, with one extra alternative at -110 degrees shown --Resup (talk) 05:12, 9 June 2015 (UTC)

Speed calculation?
Resup, thanks for shifting my comment to more relevant location. I would like to add here one more analysis. Minimum Distance between Hit point (based on Dutch castrated report) and Snizhne is 24 km (Bellingcat magical tricks placed the launch spot even further). Buk-M1 missile goes at 860m/s, but let's assume 1km/s. Let's also assume that missile immediately travels at highest speed. For such distance the trajectory will be parabolic (slide 49 from Almaz-Antey). Than the time of flight will be way more than 30 sec and it will even intersect the pilot's vertical field of view. Dutch officially declared that there is nothing interesting on black box voice recorder. How is it possible for the pilot not to notice a 5 meters lobg rocket, that ejects violent plume behind, flies directly at him for more than 30 sec and even goes across his vertical field of view? And according to Dutch report, pilot was informed of another airliner in proximity, that he had to watch out for. So he was alert and paying attention to the surroundings. It is just impossible for the pilot not to comment on it, at least WTF. Even cloudy day doesn’t explain the issue. --Antidyatel (talk) 09:41, 9 June 2015 (UTC)
 * Last radio transmission at 13:19:56-13:19:59 UTC – MH17: ROMEO NOVEMBER DELTA, MALASYAN 17 p15, p29 (MH 17 speaking; RND=waypoint)
 * Both flight recordings ended at 13:20:03 UTC-- from the preliminary Dutch report (preliminary report discussion link)--Resup (talk) 16:22, 9 June 2015 (UTC)


 * The BUK missile burns out at around 14-15 seconds (from memory - it may vary but not much, it also depends on model, but I'm talking about the one alleged in this instance). The missile spends much of its flight in an unpowered ballistic trajectory but uses fins to make minor adjustments to strike the target.
 * The missile is much smaller than an ordinary aircraft so very hard to see. There have been numerous head-on collisions of large aircraft where the pilots never saw anything despite being on lookout. It's not surprising at all the MH17 pilots didn't see anything. --Charles Wood (talk) 10:11, 11 June 2015 (UTC)
 * We are in confused state with this -discussed at the end here. On some web pages, we can read about 15 seconds engine run, but there is a video out there which looks like old (long fins) model fired, and looks like firing engine for 40 seconds. Antey shows some trajectories which gives some clue, but not saying explicitly. --Resup (talk) 13:44, 11 June 2015 (UTC)

The 15 second for missile is from Wikipedia that quotes one Russian BUK that is about different military technologies. I've never seen it in some official document. Every source that talks about it eventually boils down to this book. But I strongly suspect that there is a typo.it should be 50 sec. Otherwise it doesn’t make sense. Missile is using proportional navigation and is supposed to chase manuvouting targets with speeds up to 830 m/s, while maximum missile speed of this kind is 860m/s. And it is supposed to catch those targets at distances up to 30 km. It just doesn’t make sense that after 15 seconds it is basically a stone with minor control indirection. Simple wind or requirement for slightly sharp turn will make it useless. Can you give an example of head on collision of planes? All I can find were either in the thick clouds or when one of the planes was ascending and another one during descending. They never crossed each other's field of view. Your comment about 5 meter rocket obviously relies on the assumption of 15 sec, meaning no plume behind. Youtube videos of Buk launches show plumes plumes staying way longer than 15 seconds. --Antidyatel (talk) 13:41, 11 June 2015 (UTC)

For those who still think that pilot of Boeing 777 is looking at the world through some kind of pinhole --Antidyatel (talk) 00:14, 12 June 2015 (UTC)

It is rare for pilots to see oncoming aircraft. Usually the first thing they get is an ATC warning or a TACAS warning. Gol Transportes Aéreos Flight 1907 is a classic example of planes heading directly towards each other and colliding without either pilot noticing anything --Charles Wood (talk) 08:17, 13 June 2015 (UTC)

Charles, it is an interesting example. Thank you. However, there was no crossing of the field of view, and pilots were not particularly looking around for danger, as testified by journalist Joe Sharkey on that flight "And it had been a nice ride. Minutes before we were hit, I had wandered up to the cockpit to chat with the pilots, who said the plane was flying beautifully. I saw the readout that showed our altitude: 37,000 feet. I returned to my seat. Minutes later came the strike (it sheared off part of the plane's tail, too, we later learned". It was 5 pm in Brazil, so it was already getting dark, but still bright enough to minimize contrast for light indicators on incoming jet. I would imaging pilots were relying on electronics, to tell them that something is wrong. In case of MH17 Pilots were informed by ATC of incoming traffic. So they were alert. Looking at this problem I also found out an interesting thing. When we say that plane was at particular hight it is no based on direct hight measurement but on response of barometric sensor at this location. Although the radar will give a direct measurement. So there can be conflict between what ATC operator instructs tot he pilot and how pilot controls the height. . Not sure how do they deal with such issue. What if the pressure sensor is faulty?

P.S.: I hope you are convinced that 15 seconds for BUK missile is not reasonable. --Antidyatel (talk) 15:49, 13 June 2015 (UTC)
 * Manual gives 19 to 23 seconds engine run... (links)--Resup (talk) 08:24, 15 July 2015 (UTC)