Talk:Turkish Downing of Russian Su-24

To Do

 * incident mapped
 * compared to 2013 helicopter incident - same area
 * Get other info, analyze/talk, etc.

list and address controversies
 * Russian jets in Turkey? In Syria?
 * Turkish jets in Turkey? In Syria?
 * west-east fire?
 * Warning sent? Received?
 * Other --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:40, 26 November 2015 (UTC)

Warning Received?
As a precedent, consider Iran Air flight 655 (IR655), blown up on July 3, 1988 by US warship. Iran Air had a policy to use a different channel than usual for emergency hailing, for whatever reason - the US claimed not to know that, the USS Vincennes used the usual frequency to warn the airliner before shooting at it, sent an unheard warning, and got no response. Seemed hostile. And they somehow didn't see the flight in their daily registry (it was there), and so followed up on their clusterfuck of inexplicable bad readings of good data, and opened fire with 2 missiles, killing about 300 civilians. In both cases, the people on the other end say/would say they never heard any warning and it felt more like an ambush. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:40, 26 November 2015 (UTC)
 * Still way behind, but this Hurriyet story is consistent with just such a trick here. "Sources" (Turkish) explain:
 * “Russia’s message to us during the Oct. 15 talks was like: ‘We use only one channel in Syria. Contact us through this channel to send your warnings to avoid problems.’ We accepted this, and we have issued all our warnings through this channel since then. As this channel is being used by the U.S. Air Force as well, warnings Turkey has made to Syria have been recorded by both the Russian air base [in Syria] and the Americans at İncirlik base [in Adana].”


 * Although Turkish pilots reportedly warned two Russian warplanes 10 times in five minutes while they were approaching Turkish airspace, there was no response on this special radio channel, sources said.
 * (implied but not likely - the message was sent on that channel)


 * “Despite the agreement with Russia, the fact that both warplanes did not communicate through this channel caused Turkish pilots to profile these planes as ‘Profile: Syria aircraft,’ and consider the situation a ‘serious threat’ as part of the military rules of engagement. One of the aircraft returned to Syrian airspace but the other that insisted on heading toward Hatay was downed by the F16s,” a source said.

--Caustic Logic (talk) 07:13, 28 November 2015 (UTC)

There is a misunderstanding on what the warning was about. Turkey has given multiple warnings to Russia not to bomb their "Turkmen" rebels in Syria. Russia on the other hand considers bombing the Turkish proxy rebels on the border and their arms supply routes as their prime mission. On the leaked tape we hear "You are approaching Turkish airspace. Change your heading south immediately." I do not see any reason why Russia would react to Turkish warnings about operating near the border. There was no warning given that the Su-24 had crossed the border. It could not have been as most likely the A-to-A missile was fired before the Su-24 crossed the Turkish border. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 15:56, 28 November 2015 (UTC)

Who was targeted?
They may be not exactly sure who was there. They get human intelligence information from the Syrian government, so this may affect targets. Their own prime concern are fighters from Russia or near abroad/the former Soviet Union: Chechnya, Dagestan, and "Middle Asia" republics, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan. (Inhabitant of Turkmenistan is called 'turkmen' in Russian; so after this incident some news sources started to use 'turkoman' to make a distinction; probably majority of population in Russia would be unaware there are some 'turkmen' who are NOT from Turkmenistan) --Resup (talk) 16:50, 28 November 2015 (UTC)

Effect on trade
Several strong statements were made. It is understandable that this causes strong emotions, but hope they can approach trade with a cool head. Economic situation in Russia is not great, affecting many people who are supported from government budget; majority of them have little or nothing to do with this, but they would be the ones mostly severely affected. Income and security considerations, yes, broken friendships-perhaps not ( --and they were not such a great friends to begin with...)--Resup (talk) 17:34, 28 November 2015 (UTC)
 * As of 2013, Russian exports to Turkey: 25 bln dollars, 70-75% of which was energy resources; imports from Turkey: 6.97 bln dollars, according to official data--Resup (talk) 02:29, 29 November 2015 (UTC)