Talk:Crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17/BUK Tracking

Kiev's Holdings
As part of their July 21 presentation of evidence, the Russian Ministry of Defense published satellite images allegedly showing Ukrainian BUK positions around Donetzk (RT report). It's no secret the Ukrainian military maintains a base with anti-aircraft units. The facility shown in the Russian presentation (best seen here) I located - it's south of Avdeyevka, 3 km north of the airport, about 5 km north of Donetsk like they say. Visual match first, then noticed the label could have found it for me ... on Wikimapia. Labels, translated: Anti-aircraft missile battalion (in / h A-1428) One of the three anti-aircraft missile battalions ("Buk-M1"), located in Avdeyevka, Mariupol and Lugansk." BUK-type launcher photos included. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:08, 29 July 2014 (UTC)

The counter-arguments to this at least sometimes fail. Interpreter rag decided "the presence of Ukrainian government air defense systems is something of a red herring, not least given the clear evidence that the separatists had deployed at least one Buk system in the area." The side with a motive and clear, moving and likely operating units of the things on that day (see below) is irrelevant and shouldn't be considered because there's apparently also proof the presumed bad guys also had the units they needed to be so presumed. The very fact that separatists aren't ruled out means the other side should be free of any danger of being ruled in, and the separatists should ruled in just as automatically as they were before this social-media verification came in. This is clearly an irresponsible suggestion. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:50, 31 July 2014 (UTC) and --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:20, 2 August 2014 (UTC)

Kiev's Buks Shuffled?

 * From Russia's military press conference: RT, 10 Questions - in more detail
 * 3. Why was a large group of air defense systems deployed to the militia-held area if the self-defense forces have no planes?
 * “As far as we know, the Ukrainian military had three or four air defense battalions equipped with Buk-M1 SAM systems deployed in the vicinity of Donetsk on the day of the crash. This system is capable of hitting targets within the range of 35 km at the altitude of up to 22 km.”''
 * 4. Why did Kiev deploy BUK missile systems on the edge of militia-controlled zones directly before the tragedy?
 * “We have satellite photos of the places where Ukraine had its air defense units deployed in the southeastern parts of the country. The first three photos were made on July 14. The first photo shows Buk launchers 8 km northwest of Lugansk. You can clearly see a TELAR and two TELs. The second photo shows radars 5 km north of Donetsk. You can see two TARs along with other equipment and technical structures. The third photo shows air defense systems north of Donetsk. You can clearly see a TELAR launcher and about 60 military and auxiliary vehicles, tents for vehicles and other structures.


 * “Here’s a photo of the same area made on July 17. Please note that the launcher has disappeared. The fifth photo shows a battery of Buk missiles at the village of Zaroshchenskoye 50 km east of Donetsk and 8 km south of Shakhtyorsk on the morning of the same day. The sixth photo shows the same area on July 18. As you can see, the battery has left.”

Note: the latter fourth photo of July 17 has substantial cloud cover, but unless they happened to hide the launchers in those areas (or Russia's satellites waited until the area was covered) it appears the noted vehicles have left to go do something - on/by the 17th, where they say launchers appear and then disappear in a town closer to the crash on the 17th. Zaroshchenskoye on Yandex maps - 13 miles SSW of the crash sitel, 9 miles W-SW of Torez..--Caustic Logic (talk) 23:08, 29 July 2014 (UTC)

On July 30, Vitalyi Naida, head of Ukrainian Security Service SBU’s counter-intelligence, came up with a series of slides (short article, announcement on SBU website with link to youtube-video showing the slides (presumably Ukrainian language)) allegedly showing that the Russian material was "faked". He points to a patch of trees, claiming they had been cut down shortly before the 17th, while Russia's images show the trees intact. On August 1, the Russian Ministry of Defense published a rebuttal advising that
 * Instead of presenting hastily doctored evidence to the international community, the SBU could do with better control over all the mercenary units in the areas around Donetsk and Lugansk organized by Kolomoisky, Lyashko, Yarosh and others, who shell Ukrainian territory without any control from those in charge of the anti-terrorist operation.

The trees probably are cut down by now, but we'll have to wait for the true details of just when they were and when the image showing that was taken, or if the image shown is even of any one day and not a composite - "doctored" as Russia says. Other clues suggest launchers moving out of this area at that time: The - ostensibly from the morning of the 17th - shows the infamous launcher-loaded truck seen in Lugansk, or one just like it, being carried on a truck belonging to a company just south of the missile base in northern Donetsk. That was seen carrying the launcher east out of town at 11:15 AM, purportedly on July 17 (and with the location completely fudged to say Snizhne, when it was only headed there).--Caustic Logic (talk) 10:20, 2 August 2014 (UTC)

The Russian military press conference said "The fifth photo shows a battery of Buk missiles at the village of Zaroshchenskoye 50 km east of Donetsk and 8 km south of Shakhtyorsk on the morning of the same day. The sixth photo shows the same area on July 18. As you can see, the battery has left." (#5 inset) The Ukraine@War blog's analysis decided this image as well was fake. That's mentioned here if not elsewhere. The reason: "the shadows of these BUKs have a different direction for all three of them. It means these were pasted into the image." I have to admit, it looks a bit like that. The trees have consistent shadows to the west, in a morning image. The furthest vehicle to the left has a visible shadow about like that. The other two don't seem to, and the one furthest right seems to have a shadow on the wrong side (looks like early PM). I wracked my brain just a little thinking of other explanations aside from just low resolution. Nothing much came up. Anyone else? --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:06, 10 August 2014 (UTC)

Separatist Holdings
While much certainty has been shown it was a separatist BUK system responsible, everyone seems to acknowledge that ordinarily, they didn't have any, that were known of. Fresh sighting of them in the field, supposed admissions, and existing presumptions remain the strongest evidence. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:43, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

The Open Newsroom team have latched onto a June 29 message from a Twitter account associated with the Donetsk People’s Republic, @DNRpress claiming separatist forces had conquered a base with anti-air BUK missiles. This is apparently the A-1402 base, as an Itar-Tass report specified. That report noted ... It seems to just cite the tweet which, it was found, used a dated photo online since mid-2013. In essence, there's no good evidence they ever did seize this place. But it was referred to by some as "Deleted DNR tweet confirming Russian rebels indeed have a BUK-M1." The crew at large seems a bit vague on the status of this base:
 * June 29 Seizure?
 *  It appears that the A-1402 military unit was moved into the Donetsk region in 2007 from Odessa, and reports note that the unit was based near Donetsk airport. Local reports from June 29 cited ATO spokesman Alexei Dmitrashkivsky as stating that separatists had attacked the military unit.

As we just found with geo-location, it's 3 km north of Donetsk airport, and it's the same place Russia believes is firmly government-held. It's the place they say at least one BUK-type launcher was removed from on July 17 for some reason, by Kiev's forces who run it. If this basic Wikipedia article on the battle for the airport is correct and/or in line with our page on it, the airport and anything military-related north of it would probably be government-held continuously to the present time. It's possible some launchers could have been lost during a brief seizure of the base, but this too seems doubtful. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:24, 31 July 2014 (UTC)


 * Social media published many photos of the "liberated" Buk missiles. I searched for them on Google Image Search; all were old photos from more peaceful times. I have no idea what really happened. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:10, 3 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Thanks. I hadn't looked into it myself, but recycled images made sense given the other clues that they never did take that base, or at least get anything out of it. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:14, 4 August 2014 (UTC)

The US embassy in Kiev said in a press statement of July 19:
 * Held by July 14?
 * Intercepts of separatist communications posted on YouTube by the Ukrainian government indicate the separatists were in possession of a SA-11 system as early as Monday July 14th. In the intercepts, the separatists made repeated references to having and repositioning Buk (SA-11) systems. (also quoted at the Guardian)

As "Corporal Frisk" aptly responded:
 * Having perhaps the world’s best intelligence network, and then using easily faked videos of separatist communications posted on YouTube as evidence sure has a degree of ridicule attached to it, but is also an inidcation that US intelligence believes at least some of these transcripts are real.

That's totally apt if one suspends the usual definition of "believe" (to include "wants to appear to believe," etc.) In the same piece, the author apparently gives more "credibility to the charges that the Buk-M1 is indeed Russian supplied (and possibly crewed), as opposed to stemming from captured Ukrainian stocks." As covered below, this I can agree with if we suspend the usual definition of "Russian" (to include "allegedly Russian villains," "the Ukrainian version of Libya's African Mercenaries and Syria's Shabiha," etc.) this would be spot-on. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:54, 10 August 2014 (UTC)

(more allegations to cover?)

Whatever the evidence rebels had Buk systems by the 14th, Kiev also has suggested, and many have accepted, that the one that mattered at least - the launcher unit that shot down MH17 on the 17th - wasn't theirs at all, but brought in and operated by Russians for the day only. If only for that reason, all the above is likely moot. See next section. --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:31, 11 August 2014 (UTC)
 * The One That Matters

Russian Buk Field Trip?
The Kiev regime's narrative also suggests separatists had no BUK systems of their own. Rather, someone else brought one in to their area, took it on some kind of tour through several towns thought accessible only to rebels and allies, and got it seen in each place. Then these people shot the airliner down themselves on the separatists' behalf. That party is the Russians, they say. This is perhaps best encapsulated by "counter-terrorism" chief Vitaly Nayda's early assessment. AP's July 25 report summarized it, saying "the account was based on information from intercepts, spies and resident tips."
 * Nayda laid the blame fully on Russia: He said the missile launcher came from Russia and was operated by Russians. ... According to Nayda, at 1 a.m. on July 17 the launcher rolled into Ukraine across the Russian border aboard a flatbed truck. He cited communications intercepts that he would not share with the AP. By 9 a.m., he said, the launcher had reached Donetsk, the main rebel stronghold 125 miles (200 kilometers) from the border. In Donetsk it is presumed to have been off-loaded from the flatbed and started to move in a convoy on its own.
 * Nayda said the Buk turned back east toward Snizhne. Townspeople who spoke to the AP said it rolled into Snizhne around lunchtime.
 * ...As for the Buk, Nayda said, intelligence suggests it went back on the move shortly after the attack. That very night, he said, it crossed the border, back into Russia.

This is full of details that don't line up with the emerging record, but the gist including a grand-circuit tour including both separatist stronghold/capitols Donestk and Lugansk plus the disaster zone, seems about right. But the evil they allowed came from and returned to Russia.

This does however jibe with the Kiev allegation (I learned of through this excellent and relevant HRI article that Russian jets violated Ukrainian airspace to bomb an apartment building in Snizneh on July 15th, killing 11 civilians. This all makes a bit of sense in context; that false flag attack was blamed by locals on Kiev'a noble Air Force - almost understandably! It "created the conditions" by which people might accept apparent a team of apparent Russians with a Buk launcher in their town two days later. The best guess for any single firing location is a field just southeast of that town (see below). The locals might smile at, and later even cover for, this poisonous gift. But a trojan horse is a trojan horse, of course. They should have looked it in the mouth better, and been more aggressive with their questions. Because Russia has it in for the separatists, Kiev implies, using its skilled and well-documented team to murder 298 people in a horrific way on the separatists' behalf. This is not an accident, Kiev must know, but proof that Russia and its "inhuman" terrorists they must hate (and who do not seem to have any Buk launchers of their own, BTW) are the new global menace du jour. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:29, 3 August 2014 (UTC)

Reported SIghtings
(consider along with the visual sightings below) AP via Washington Post shows the separatists strategy to not be seen as they rolled the murder weapon around:
 * Even before the plane was downed, the AP had reported on the presence of the missile launcher in the town July 17. Here is what that dispatch said:
 * “An Associated Press reporter on Thursday saw seven rebel-owned tanks parked at a gas station outside the eastern Ukrainian town of Snizhne. In the town, he also observed a Buk missile system, which can fire missiles up to an altitude of 22,000 meters (72,000 feet).
 * AP journalists saw the Buk moving through town at 1:05 p.m. The vehicle, which carried four 18-foot (5.5-meter) missiles, was in a convoy with two civilian cars.
 * The convoy stopped. A man in sand-colored camouflage without identifying insignia — different from the green camouflage the rebels normally wear — approached the journalists. The man wanted to make sure they had not recorded any images of the missile launcher. Satisfied that they hadn’t, the convoy moved on.

That kind of pro-Russian sooper-seekrisy aimed at the media in front of the media should stop them being seen, right? No, oddly, it didn't. See below. The clumsy bastards could hardly have implicated themselves any more thoroughly than they did that day. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:31, 3 August 2014 (UTC)

One interesting post at the Ukraine@War blog mentions two tweets, both from July 17 and before the crash, mentioning this BUK launcher on a trailer at places consistent with the video record. One of them (translated) sounds perhaps too informed, and says "Was driven missile system on the tractor cover + two cars after Thorez (Torez) in snowy (Sniznoyeh) in 12-10 (at 12:10? Too early...)." The other one says "(someone this) morning wrote that (the truck) stood (parked for some time) on b.Shahtostroiteley not intersection with Ilchicha, aside (heading towards) Makeevki. waiting to see (to be seen?) If that's an intersection named, it's a different parking spot identified as being here on Google Maps, one km west of the spot it was parked for the "Paris Match" photo. Otherwise, it refers only to the same place. The contributor noted "Another interesting detail in that tweet is that “it was standing” and “they were waiting”. My understanding of that phrasing is that the #Buk was actually parked there for some time. Meaning there might be witnesses." There was a witness with a camera, and a photo sent to the Western media. That almost seems to have been the idea - to get witnessed like that. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:42, 12 August 2014 (UTC)

SBU Wiretap Clues
I just had a look at the SBU wiretap transcripts, ones released July 19. In it is a segment tying in with the above stop or stops in Donetsk, the exact spot of the, and the general orders to drive east with the launcher. I'm not up on the wiretap stuff - if this is the same material said to be corroborated by the US as the real people talking. But briefly, know that parking spot in just past a roundabout, by a motel and a bus station, well short of a crossing Hornostaivska street halfway to Makiivka. Important clue to why it was here this thing had to get seen and talked about: one source claims this roundabout at the edge of town is "a big separatist checkpoint established on Jun 3 at the road circle." This is supposed to all be pretty damning, and I must say it's at least looking like a pretty slick plan may be going on here, with pre-scripted parts that come into play later, etc. From Kiev mouthpiece UaToday, parts of a transcript they ran with the video and other allegations, on the 19th - How credible is this evidence?
 * Khmuryi: Sergei Nikolaevich Petrovskiy, year of birth 1964, officer of Main Intelligence Directorate of Russian Federation, Deputy Chief of Ihor Girkin on Intelligence, at the time of the interception he was in Donetsk.
 * “Buryat” – militant of terrorist organization “DNR” (to be indentified).
 * Buryat: – Where should we load this beauty, Nikolaievich?
 * Khmuryi: Which one? This one?
 * B: Yes, the one I’ve brought. I’m already in Donetsk.
 * K: Is it the one I’m thinking about? “B…,”M” one?
 * B: Yes, yes, yes. “BUK”,”BUK”.
 * K: Is it on a tractor?
 * B: Yes, it’s on it. We need to unload it somewhere, in order to hide.
 * K: Is it with a crew?
 * B: Yes, with the crew.
 * K: Don’t hide it anywhere. She’ll go there now.
 * ''Khmuryi: – Tell me, have you brought me one or two?
 * Buryat: One, one. Because they had a misunderstanding there. They didn’t give us a tug. We loaded it and went at their own pace.
 * K: Did it go on her own or on a tug?
 * B: It crossed the line (border).
 * H: And now have you brought it on a tug? Don’t put in anywhere… I’ll tell now where it should go, it will go together with “Vostok” tanks.
 * K: Sanych, the point is that my “BUK–M” (modified Russian SAM system) will go with yours, it is on a tug. Where should I drive it to put in a column?
 * Sanych: There, behind “Motel”, not reaching Hornostaevka.
 * K: Just after the Motel, right?
 * Khmuryi: Listen to me carefully, behind the circle near “Motel” there will be you know what. Call to “Bibliotekar” (Librarian).
 * K: Just after the Motel, right?
 * Khmuryi: Listen to me carefully, behind the circle near “Motel” there will be you know what. Call to “Bibliotekar” (Librarian).

The next part, to me, suggests that as far back as the 19th or earlier, people talking on tape were seeding, or working by, the SBU-proposed Aeroloft plot with the town mix-up. In that light: --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:42, 12 August 2014 (UTC)
 * ...Bring inside only those, who just came back, only as much as you need for the convoy. Leave everyone else here. Not far away there is Pervomaiskoe, look at the map.
 * DNR militant: I got it. (Or did he not quite get it?)
 * Khmuryi: Settle somewhere in that area, bring there those who are left. Your task is reserve, plus protection of this piece (BUK–M), which you will drive now. “Giyrza” will come there too. If anything, I’m on line.

Imagery Mapping
There have been quite a number now of photos and videos showing BUK launchers ostensibly in separatist strongholds, on July 17. The geo-location of these in such towns by social media networks has been the subject of some recent media commentary. These purported placements are worth collecting and considering here. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:20, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

One somewhat comprehensive and updated/evolving page: How Social Sleuthing Uncovered Evidence of Surface-to-Air Missile Systems in Eastern Ukraine Inset is a small preview of the interactive map they made of all placed images (as it stands at the end of July - full-size presentation with links, on Google Maps) Note that one of them is way up in Lugansk - which one is a little unclear at the moment - the site may be wrong ) --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:45, 31 July 2014 (UTC)


 * List of Scenes, placed or not
 * Billboard Video: released by Interior Ministry, filmed in Krasnodon before dawn, the Interior Minister says. Russian military analysis places it in  Krasnoarmeysk, and the Open Newsroom crew contradicts both and decided "collaborative geo-location was able to place the footage in southwestern Luhansk.''
 * Surveillance Video: located to Snizhne by Eliot Higgins, date unclear.
 * Zuhres video: Pre-geo-located by the uploader here in Zuhres. Higgins confirms, 100% sure, and others concur. Driving east.
 * Torez square photo - located by an associate of Higgins - filmed app. 11:40 AM in central Torez. See below.
 * Another photo placed: Snizneh, nearest the shoot-down area (f/c)
 * Paris Match photo - allegedly Snizhne, reportedly placed in northern Donetsk city. See below.

Billboard Video
(to be condensed) A video released by the Ukrainian Interior Ministry is highly dubious and worth some analysis. It shows what seems to be a BUK launcher loaded on a truck driving some direction in some town at what seems to be early twilight (or pre-dawn, depending). The original posting (with almost 2 million views already) gives no details: "Militants take out missile system "Buk" to the border with Russiam" the title translates. "No description available," it says below, and no comments allowed. From what I've seen no one knows where this is filmed. Daily Mail says it's a "separatist stronghold," unnamed, and headed south, back towards Russia. "Ukrainian spies reportedly filmed the launcher used in the attack being smuggled to Russia - with two missiles missing." Eliot Higgins was cited by the Guardian with his new team of fundraistigators as geolocating some video and photo but not, apparently, this one. As explained at the kickstarter link they give, Higgins writes:
 * In the above video, posted by the Ukranian Ministry for Interior claiming to show the Buk missile launcher being driven towards Russia it was possible to match the transporter in the video to the transporter in Torez, details of which... (you have to subsidize their operation to see) --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:07, 29 July 2014 (UTC)

Avakov's Placement: Krasnodon or Lugansk
Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said in a Facebook post of July 18 Google-translated:
 * Covert surveillance units of MIA of Ukraine today July 18 at 4.50 am was recorded caterpillar tractor loaded with missile complex, moving in the direction through Krasnodon, toward the border with the Russian Federation. The video can be seen uncovered missiles. Two missiles in place - the average is not visible. 
 * There is an analysis of this and other information gathered. Presumably this is the missile system "Buk" that made a last shot at a civilian plane from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur .. 
 * Criminals try to hide the traces of this heinous crime. Not succeed. Security Service and Interior Ministry of Ukraine has collected and collects more irrefutable facts and evidence, the author points out the tragedy of the terrorist organization DNI / LC and its Russian backers Putin.
 * The investigation of events MIA issue a comprehensive report on the information. This fragment consider it necessary to publish immediately.

By the 22nd, "online sleuths" had placed it in Lugansk (see below). Avakov then confirmed this - he was wrong the first time. One article makes it sound like he wasn't just echoing the sleuths:
 * On July 22, Ukraine's Minister of Internal Affairs, Arsen Avakov, gave the exact coordinates of the video’s location: separatist-held Luhansk, about a 45-minute drive from Krasnodon. Locals quickly verified this claim by photographing the scene, which perfectly matches the landmarks seen in the video. (article by one of the sleuths)

Krasnoarmeysk
One source venturing a guess is the Russian government and RT witrh their 10 intriguing questions:
 * “For example, media circulated a video supposedly showing a Buk system being moved from Ukraine to Russia. This is clearly a fabrication. This video was made in the town of Krasnoarmeisk, as evidenced by the billboard you see in the background, advertising a car dealership at 34 Dnepropetrovsk Street. Krasnoarmeysk has been controlled by the Ukrainian military since May 11.”

There is a sign, but I cannot make it out just yet, if ever. Can they really? Even if that's so, surrounding towns might be good places for a dealership in Krasnoarmeysk to advertise. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:07, 29 July 2014 (UTC)

At right now is a still from a video claiming to show this, I still don't see it. They seem to think the gray span says that, perhaps from seeing a clearer view of this ubiquitous sign elsewhere. Opps. There's no reason to say a dealership in one town can only have billboards in that town. This alone fails. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:05, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

on Google Maps as Krasnoarmiis'k - not to be confused with the Krasnoarmeisk not far away in Russia. Distance: about 100 km almost due west of the crash site. Panorama, possiblt location, directions/implications forthcoming. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:07, 29 July 2014 (UTC)


 * Dnepropetrovsk Street is the main street of Krasnoarmeisk, leading northwest to Dnepropetrovsk. It tried matching this to the street corner where the car dealership is located. Yandex Maps did not provide a street view. It could be there, but too few details to make a positive match. Whatever this is, it is not evidence for anything. The least the SBU could have done is provide the location and some corroborating photographs.
 * The same applies to all so called "evidence" provided by Ukraine and the US State Department. As far as I can tell it is only cut-and-paste of unrelated footage to illustrate the claims made. A perfect example of this illusion is the "satellite photos" of Russian artillery shelling Ukraine released on Sunday morning. A photo of Russian GRADs on some unidentifiable field was placed next to a satellite image with an arrow pointing "Here Be Monsters!" Purely illustrative and no proof. There is a difference between legerdemain Hocus Pocus and outright forgery. The Russian video presentation displayed screen capture recording from the ATC radar, usually stored for two weeks. For this to be a hoax, Russia would need to create a forged tape of the radar data. Highly unlikely, as the the claim of authenticity had support of the full authority and prestige of the Russian Armed Forces. If the US presentation turns out to be hoax, State Department will claim the photos were never meant to be evidence. Some internee was told to prepare a presentation using stock images for some facts they knew to be true – trust us! -- Petri Krohn (talk) 14:45, 29 July 2014 (UTC)
 * You must have missed this, Petri! ;oP --CE (talk) 18:08, 29 July 2014 (UTC)
 * That is an awesomely perfect picture for this sorry episode so far. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:36, 31 July 2014 (UTC)


 * It would be neat though if we could show where this is and thus which way its's headed. The Kiev authorities, I think, know what happened. They say it was this exact launcher missing two missiles. It could be. Where is it at filming time and where headed? If it's true this same one was in Torez (dubious but possible) we'd have a direction traveled until that point also, and a rough time, 8:30 or so. The Guardian again citing Storyful's open-source investigation:
 * “There are now four pieces of content – three pieces of video and one image – which, in the case of three, conclusively show a Buk [surface-to-air] missile within rebel-held territory and in the case of the fourth, almost definitely in their territory,” says Storyful executive editor David Clinch. “Of those four pieces, individual groups or companies probably verified in or around the same time one or another of them.”
 * Open Newsroom verified three pieces of content and is investigating the fourth, thanks to its 900-strong network of journalists and experts. ''
 * The fourth is this video. Wouldn't it be a coup if we were the first to place it? Force that intern excuse and then laugh at it. That said, it's not the most likely to place but you, Petri, especially, might be able to. I think I might. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:51, 29 July 2014 (UTC)


 * James Miller Google + July 21 "Was a Buk sighted in Krasnoarmeysk or Krasnodon (continued analysis)? We've taken a new look at this video which has been debated since it was posted days ago. We're fairly confident, though not 100% confident, in this geoanalysis, but we're making significant progress. Any more information would be extremely helpful. " Cited: Russia This Week: Defense Ministry Claim on Buk in Billboard Video Doesn’t Add Up
 * ''...As we reported on our Ukraine Liveblog, the Buk was spotted before the shoot-down of the Malaysian airplane and ultimately geolocated to the town of Torez, near the location of the crash in Grabovo. Then the video, taken early the next morning on 18 July, showed a scene in Krasnodon,...

--Caustic Logic (talk) 13:09, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

Google Earth has one photo [http://www.panoramio.com/photo/55329278 from ул. Днепропетровская.] The street has about the same width. The streetlights are not quite the same. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 14:55, 31 July 2014 (UTC)
 * That image doesn't help a match, especially since by now it looks like Lugansk. For the record, there was a go by pro-rebel social media people at identifying a spot in town to explain the video scene, but it didn't do that either. this spot on Wikimapia is what they pointed to - filmed from the marked building, they say, looking southwest to the mall. No matching anything. --Caustic Logic (talk) 02:30, 3 August 2014 (UTC)

Placed in Lugansk!
Storyful's rundown states of this video:
 * The footage is not the original, however we believe that the first instance of this footage was removed by the uploader and the version below is the earliest we can find. Ukrainian Interior Minister, Arsen Avakov, made early claims that the video was filmed in the Ukrainian town of Krasnodon near the Russian border, however collaborative geo-location was able to place the footage in southwestern Luhansk.

It links to "Bellingcat," which you have to pay to see much of. James Miller passes on that it's "Mystery SOLVED: Video released by Ukraine's Interior Ministry does in fact show a Buk, possibly missing several missiles, in Lugansk headed east from the MH17 crash site and in the direction of Russia.﻿" The spot they think matches the video (better panorama coming) is here on Google Maps. Was that a highway? Where's the cross-street? I see elsewhere they have a high view showing the same basic billboard there, but that's going to be true of several spots in this area. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:09, 31 July 2014 (UTC)

My impression of the scene - based on the panoramic view below - is far from matching with this. That does not look like a highway, and it just seems like a small town. However, I finally saw some of the supporting images (see here and here - source of the inset image.) It seems a likely match after all. I won't say I confirm it with any certainty, but I don't think I'll be challenging it like I was preparing to do. Note the different billboard in the right spot, and the matching one over there. There are other images, apparently more current, showing that that they moved the one sign over to the right spot They don't point to the pinkish roofed building beyond the red-roofed one, but that adds to the match (compare to below). Whenever this video was made and whatever it really means, it seems quite likely it was at this spot in Lugansk shortly before dawn. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:52, 1 August 2014 (UTC)

ACLOS Review
As noted above, my review agrees with the placement agreed by the others. For what it's worth, the huge panorama I made (the middle is full-resolution) and starting notes from before I realized no work was needed. --Caustic Logic (talk) 03:19, 3 August 2014 (UTC) It seems to be filmed near the edge of town, or edge of a hill anyway, with a clear view ahead, two vague homes/buildings seen down the slope. Otherwise, very non-descript. The angle of intersection will be one of the better clues - it looks to me not 90 degrees ( |- ), but with the road the truck is on either slanting or curving somewhat towards the camera ( /- ). One important observation: there's no logical reason he should have been just happening to film this area unless he knew something interesting would drive by at just this odd time. That's clarified by how he zooms in just before it enters frame - he was waiting for that truck. How did he know about it? Informants on the other side of town phoning ahead makes enough sense, I suppose.

Another issue: If this is dusk (sunset 8:20 PM local), isn't this facing roughly northwest? If so, this vehicle is driving roughly north, not south. And we might start looking on the west edge of town. There's a highway out to the northwest, back towards Kiev. This street is too narrow and unmarked to be the highway, obviously, but it might be driving that way, for example. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:41, 29 July 2014 (UTC)
 * Or, alternately, he's facing towards the sun about to rise, early on the 18th, as alleged by the Interior Ministry) --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:20, 31 July 2014 (UTC)
 * That he happened to be filming just before dawn is even less likely than dusk. He clearly knew this was coming, whatever that means. --Caustic Logic (talk) 03:19, 3 August 2014 (UTC)

Above is the composite scene without truck. At left is the truck without background. Besides lightening the scene, it seemed worth getting the clearest details from different frames into a composite view of the truck and its load. This helps compare to the launchers seen in other areas and different times. So far, they all seem to look the same and perhaps be the same. --Caustic Logic (talk) 03:19, 3 August 2014 (UTC)

HRI
Pretty good points from Human Rights Investigations:
 * To sum up, the statement of Avakov, the film and its location suggest the Ukrainian authorities had advance knowledge of this BUK and trailer’s movements or control over it. It is also extremely strange that this BUK, allegedly after shooting down MH17, is supposedly filmed by a Ukrainian surveillance team in ostensibly rebel territory, with its covering missing, as if to show the world a missile is missing.

--CE (talk) 12:28, 7 August 2014 (UTC)

Paris Match Photo



 * Originally published by Paris Match on July 25, with the claim the picture was taken by their own reporting team near Snizhne at mid-day on the 17th. Note the prominent, apparent, telephone number prominently centered in the picture - (050) 471-41-80. The truck and launcher, as far as can be seen, are quite similar to or the same as the one seen in the billboard video anyways. How many of its missiles the unit has at this moment is unclear.


 * Human Rights Investigations: "it turns out to have been taken in Donetsk, 75km away" (citing someone else's geo-location - site link given.
 * ''We know this because the phone number on the truck panel (050 471 4180) leads straight to this hire place (photo):
 * According to Paris-Match, the proprietor of this establishment claimed “rebels” had stolen a number of his vehicles earlier in the month. If we go from here to towards Snizhne we find the location of the Paris-Match photo, near a car dealership on Makiivske Highway on the outskirts of Donetsk:
 * After informing Paris-Match of the mistake regarding the video location, the author of the article Alfred De Montesquiou has now got back and explained:
 * Hello, indeed, it appears there was a mixup in caption : the picture was taken leaving Donetsk on road to Snijne, not in actual Snijne

Questions: Was it a caption mix-up, or did their team really not know where it was taken, and just believed the real source when he said Snizneh? Who is the true photographer who knew to catch this picture near the company's base, apparently at the outset of a rather epic journey? Why did the rebel thieves leave the prominent phone number on the stolen truck used for such an important task? It wound up leading to man who pointed right to the rebel thieves, and prove yet again separatists, not Kiev allies, were the ones driving BUKs around. Was that so hard to foresee? --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:36, 1 August 2014 (UTC)

To Do: Verify the geo-location - set a time, presuming July 17, by sunlight and that location - establish which was it's traveling relative to the government-run anti-aircraft base just a few km north of here and relative to the other places and times this truck and others were spotted rolling around prominently and getting filmed a lot by the right kind of people, in areas presumed to be impenetrable to any such frame-up operation - look into this company, etc. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:36, 1 August 2014 (UTC) Location: I can't confirm it with certainty, but it's extremely consistent. Two standard but distinct pole types that close together on the right with a pull-over lane ending at the blue one, and consistent-scale foliage behind. Proceding on the location as likely enough to warrant the work. The stretch of highway identified runs northeast, heading 33 degrees. The truck is most likely not driving at the moment, as it's in the pull-over lane. But it's pointed as if ready to leave Donetsk as soon as they finish doing something in theis spot. All we can see they're doing is getting filmed, and maybe that's just what they're waiting for. Ahead would be the an industrial area, the eastern suburb of Makiivka, then Khartsyzk, etc. and further east Torez and Snizhne (driving times unsure, date also unsure. Russia claims the one launcher left the northern base sometime between in August 14 and 17 images.

Left: this truck location, the company's apparent headquarters (GM link), and the A-1402 missile base relative to each other.

Time: I'm not sure how exactly to set this up, but the shadows appear to stretch almost right across the highway, with only a slight northern shift. The azimuth thus appears to be fairly close to to 140˚ (reached at 11:09 AM). As for solar altitude, trying to line up the launcher's corner with its shadow gives a reading of app. 56˚ (= 10:50 AM, with azimuth 133˚) or perhaps 59˚ (= 11:18, az 143.5). The graphic shows both readings. Which is better? I used NOAA solar calculator, with coordinates: lat 48.017102 long:37.9037626 time=GMT+2, DST +1 --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:15, 2 August 2014 (UTC)

There is more to consider about this truck, its company, its owner, and his story. But other than this photo's extra-clear view of the phone number and apparent proximity to headquarters, those are better covered in the section below.

Torez Square Photo
This is another image geo-located by the Brown Moses network (ally Aric Toller) to central Torez, here on Google Maps. Like others, it was initially stated as in another locale - Snizhne - and that had to be corrected. I can agree the location pointed to is either the photo's site or one strangely like it. Mashable noted "Toler and Higgins were able to establish that the photograph was shot around 11:40 a.m. local time." I tried a quick azimuth measure, eyeballed relative only to the blue car, and got 165 degrees (yellow line, read backwards). This equates to a time of almost exactly 12:00 noon (about 30 minutes before solar noon, and 20 minutes later than their estimate). Seeing they're close to right, I'll presume they're closer than me and defer to 11:40.

If this photo is taken at 11:40 AM, and it's the same truck seen leaving Donetsk around 11-11:20 AM, it's impossible these images are from the same day as alleged (Gmaps says it's 68.8 km, 1 hour 14 mins drive, when there's only 20-40 minutes between the images). That would mean multiple mobile launchers with multiple "Titan" trucks, or just one but with some date fudging. The company says a number of its trucks were stolen, so matching multiples are entirely likely. But so is date fudging, multiples or not. If that's so, I suspect the Donetsk photo was from July 15 or 16, and this one more likely from the day of the crime. --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:10, 3 August 2014 (UTC)

Zuhres Video
Again, a truck of that same type loaded with the same apparent weapon is briefly seen driving east (detail at right). This one was never reported wrong and was in fact pre-geo-located by the uploader here in Zuhres. Higgins confirms, 100% sure, and others concur. Zuhres location: on highway H21 halfway between Donetsk and the general disaster zone - 36 km east by road from the position of the truck in the Paris Match photo. I agree with the location, refined below as I lined up in the still used here - the blue line runs between the blue thing and the building corner (footprint, not roofline) to the front of the truck as it passes.

The sky is fairly overcast, so solar angles can't be measured precisely; the differences in facet lighting are clear but not massive. A broad and inclusive azimuth range of 167˚ to 214˚ (rounded) is shown by the yellow arrows below. This yields a range (to the nearest minute) of 12:09 PM and 1:45 PM. The best middle is a bit early - 185 degrees. That would be 12:44 PM. Altitude, at solar noon, helps little. 12:09, 12:44, and all times between round off to 63˚. if that simply looks too high, we're forced to the later end of the time frame. - 57˚ at 1:45. My super broad-estimate: 12:45 +/- 50 minutes. Weather at this time on whatever day - as noted, it partly overcast, and it's windy. The clouds are moving fast, with slight lighting changes visible in just these few seconds. Winds by the swaying trees are from the southeast, perhaps, blowing northwest - at least at the building with a face running that way.

The Truck Owner's Story
The apparent owner of the white truck so important to the MH17 operation was of course tracked down via the giant phone number for his compant on its side. Interviewed at least twice now, first by Paris Match, then by Lithuanian agency Alfa, this businessman has been anonymized as Vassili (then Vasilijus). Thorough summary of the related, alleged facts, from each (translated) report:
 * Paris Match, July 25:
 * Photographs of Paris Match showed that the rebels had failed to remove the billboard on the truck they had stolen. Thus we joined the owner of the vehicle. Vassili said the rebels occupied warehouses on the outskirts of Donetsk since July 8. "They are fighters Slaviansk. They landed and told me they loved my premises and we had to escape. They shipped me a dozen large vehicles, including the white truck. I do not know what happened to them, "admitted Vassili, distraught. (that was actually just what they published, aside from context material)


 * Alfa.lt, July 29:
 * This person's testimony is crucial. After it becomes indisputably known that anti-missile system, which shot down a passenger plane was precisely the Kremlin-sponsored terrorist hands. 

Here, separatists are throughout called "terrorists" (Bezler is "the "People's Republic of Donetsk" terrorist gangs ringleader"). Vassili says these took over and occupied his company premises on July 8, taking the white truck - they said because it was needed He says they stayed in control of his facility for 8 days, apparently departing on the 9th day - July 17. Becuase of this, he and his staff - especially his drivers - were unable to do anything that whole time. He's entirely certain it's his truck in the videos (the phone number says so) as it's the only one of its type in that part of Donetsk (Žinoma, ji – vienintelė tokia Donecko srityje, tokios kitos nėra. Tokios „Volvo“ su tokia kabina). He says he still hasn't seen it since.
 * ...more and more irrefutable evidence that Russia supported the terrorists shot down over the temporary control of the territory in the east of Ukraine aboard passenger "Malaysia Airlines plane, and later sought to hide evidence.

But as Paris Match noted, they couldn't be bothered to detach the phone number to the guy with the whole dang story.
 * Alfa.lt knowledge of the personal data, company name, knows his responsibilities and phone numbers (one is (050) 471-41-80), but because of the danger to his life that can not be published. "Stop saying my name, and I already have enough problems," said new horrific crime witness Vasilijus.

This is valid; of course his best defense would have been to simply not implicate the separatists mostly running Donetsk, but it's too late now. DPR authorities might want him for questioning. And especially now that he's been publicized as a "crucial witness," others will want him to appear to have been brutally murdered by them (he will have served his main purpose by now, perhaps). I hope someone's able to arrange protective custody quickly enough, or that he can arrange his own vacation, or convince his friends (he'll know the ones) of his continuing usefulness to them alive. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:48, 7 August 2014 (UTC)

Further bits on the business: Wikimapia has labels. One for the front building is generic. In English writing: Ochakivska vulytsia, 19. Beneath: Category: safety, private security company. Around this, a bigger labeled area including the back building and surrounding lot. Label: Территория службы охраны "Титан" Translated, it says "Territory protection service "Titan" (Donetsk)." Beneath it: "Category: Do not display name, fenced area." (не отображать название, огороженная территория) Below, their gate area as it appears in Human Rights Investigation's still, and three versions I've seen randomly changing over the last day or so with different parts that could be the name blurred out (most recently back to not blurred). Is that unusual? I predict further twists in this, with the truck found somewhere bolstering the Kiev story, and with the company's "outing" being manipulated somehow. Feels a little spooky. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:22, 2 August 2014 (UTC)


 * Assessing "Vassili's" Story

There are a number of problems with and interesting questions about this witness' story and how it meshes with other allegation (details forthcoming).

In Vassili's defense, I'll say the world needs to hear more. What happened in these eight days? Were Russian officers coming and going? Poring over air charts in the side room, before closing the door with an annoyed look? A lot could have happened - this could be a gold mine of direct evidence for war crimes trials of these terrorist gang's leaders (as understood). --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:06, 7 August 2014 (UTC) An apparent support: as HRI found, New sighting of Volvo linked to BUK? August 7 - One of those provocatively deleted tweets, quite recent with a supposedly same-day (dawn or sunset) photo from somewhere in Donetsk - outskirtsy, like where rebel I mean Kiev junta forces proudly claim to almost be. this photo (saved by HRI) shows "a truck" carrying a tank, driving behind another tank. The posted thought it was for a new roadblack/barricade (concrete slabs were also being hauled). It appears to be the same truck Vassili says he lost, or one just like it. And this does look like the type of thing seaparatists would do if they had seized it, and still didn't realize how famous it had become. This thing likes to drive at dawn, doesn't it? How are checkpoints then, a little sleepy maybe? Hmmm... --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:55, 8 August 2014 (UTC)
 * (added later: inset image - from the photo, color-corrected and cropped on just the truck - for full view see the article or below) --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:15, 9 August 2014 (UTC)


 * FTR I took up HRI's challenge to identify the truck on that picture and did so with almost 100% certainty. It's a Volvo FH second generation (2001-2013) with low cabin. Like this one which has a higher cabin but other than that is quite a match. Also FTR, I noticed that the twitter account has "Donbass Bandera" as location, which can but must not mean anything. --CE (talk) 14:33, 8 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Bandera might mean something, in context, but no time to puzzle too much. Good ID work there. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:15, 9 August 2014 (UTC)

The article passes on a geo-location I can confirm: Here on Google Maps, photo taken, as described, from "opposite the Vostochno-evroppeyskiy restaurant & lounge “Atrium” in Makiivka on the H-21." A site photo of the "Atrium" is included. The graphic I made at left shows the approximate view, including the stairwell (to a subway station?), though the billboard is less clear. The view is roughly towards the rising sun northeast - a rough azimuth measure suggests the sun is shining from about 66 71 degrees from north, for a time of around 5:24 5:52 AM (elevation: 1.8 6 degrees). --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:15, 9 August 2014 (UTC) and corrections --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:49, 9 August 2014 (UTC)

FWIW, I went over to militaryphotos.net and scanned the thread about Ukraine starting on page 200 in very early July, up until page 225 when all the known truck/BUK info and disinfo was posted. Watched countless military convoys, including a whole bunch from Donetsk in the time between. Not a sign of the truck in question. If it was in "rebel" hands since July 8 like the alleged owner claims, they used it only for "special ops", alone in the early morning or so, not in their larger relocation operations. Two things remotely interesting: in an operation reactivating a WWII tank from a war museum in Donetsk, a similar trailer is used, but the truck is a different one. And in this video from July 5 but without given location, the Ukie army does some operations and two BUK TELARs are seen. --CE (talk) 14:42, 9 August 2014 (UTC)

Possible Launch Sites
A site, or maybe a couple of locations, have now been forwarded, based on compelling evidence, as likely SAM launch sites of July 17 or thereabouts. This is worth careful consideration here. To start:


 * UK Telegraph, July 22 This report with some detail and a photo visits a few areas where signs of possible BUK launcher movement and firing occurred recently. Caterpillar tracks, mostly light, signs of burning, various debris left behind, all or mostly "in the area of the town of Snizhnoye." These details might suggest whoever did this had multiple launchers set up in different areas that left as soon as the operation/accident was done. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:55, 31 July 2014 (UTC)
 * So far, signs are saying it was just the one. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:12, 9 August 2014 (UTC)

Below: The site shown on video, stitched panoramic view (with confusing curve). This helps get the fullest set of geo-location clues. I may even check if this is the same spot identified by Ukraine@War, below. It should be, or we might have two firing locations pretty near each other, which would be odd. The firing direction from here would be northwest, almost directly along MH17's flight path. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:14, 7 August 2014 (UTC)

Ukraine@War: Launch location detected of missile that brought down MH17 The photo at right, cited by Kiev as proof of a BUK launch in the right area, July 17. The anlysis here looks good on first blush and lines the filming to northern Torez, plume on a line including a supposed patch of cat tracks just revelaed by fresh Google/GeoEye images of some fields here by Snizhne. As traced, the tracks look realistic to me. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:55, 31 July 2014 (UTC)


 * There is (a disappeared) BBC video suggesting that smoke is from a direction of Saur-Mogila (= constant fighting) and a coal mine.
 * Thus smoke may be unrelated to the launch. Also timing of photo is unclear.
 * Buk trail from unrelated launch videos appears considerably more impressive than on the photo, and traces well visible trajectory, likely attracting attention of many people . But there appears to be no witness reports.
 * Buk appears to use proportional navigation method, and if so, its navigation control will try to guide it on a straight path to impact.
 * Unless it was doing something else (but can it??? the answer requires expert knowledge), it was most likely on a straight line trajectory which can be deduced from the impact direction.

--Chingachgook (talk) 00:28, 10 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Yes, an odd video. I'm not certain they even picked the right view, but it looks about right - I think she and Oliphant (Telegraph) point to the same monument as a landmark - a place of fighting. Seems like they got close, but didn't have a specific spot like U@W picked, and didn't find anything. As for angle, I think it can maneuver around, but would prefer to fly straight (not an expert, don't know what "prefer" means here). And if it was hit head-on like the impact marks suggest, then it probably did fly just about straight into the jet. Obviously if it came over the wing, and was fired from here, it would have to curl around, but I don't think that's the case. --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:20, 10 August 2014 (UTC)


 * CL, do you know where to find weather records for 17 July at this location? Photo shows cirrostratus cloud which has a base height of 6000 metres.  Russian Defence Ministry states that Avdeyevka, to the west, had 70 to 80% cloud coverage and cloud base height of 2500m. But this photo is looking to the east of Torez Pmr9 (talk) 16:47, 1 August 2014 (UTC)
 * No, sorry. Was looking yesterday for Donetsk weather. Date and time.com goes back a few days too little to help in either. It's out there, somewhere. --Caustic Logic (talk) 22:02, 1 August 2014 (UTC)
 * For the record, Weather Underground doesn't even have the airport basics. Donetsk, UKCC - lat day with details: June 3. First day without, like all since, June 4. What exactly broke down at that point is not clear to me. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:36, 7 August 2014 (UTC)

The satellite images cited at Ukraine@War are available if you have Google Earth. As explained here, there's a .kmz package you can download here that loads on Google Earth new, murky images from July 20 (but the display still says August, 2013). The tracks he highlights are visible, faintly. There are a couple sets perhaps connecting - some could be local paths - there's no recent enough images to say there weren't there July 16. One important missing thing is a patch of burnt grass it seems should show up up differently - it's not identified there, and not evident right around these tracks. From this, it's not a great fit, except that line of sight pointing here. --Caustic Logic (talk) 12:56, 9 August 2014 (UTC)

So is the Telegraph site and the Ukraine@War site the same thing? Well, the Telegraph article says they went to the spot identified on a blog, but found, as the image suggests: Two possible launch sites – a rundown collective farm and a nearby wheat field – showed some track marks but no sign of any rocket launch whatsoever." It was a farmer plowing his fields there who pointed them to a field nearby that burned the other day, and that 's the unclear site they show. "The location of the fire lies on the supposed flight path of the rocket, and track marks – though indistinct – are present. Some unidentifiable bits of green plastic littered the site of the fire." There were also discarded bottles (type unclear) and apparently this oddity, shown in a photo but not mentioned - soft bakelite-type plastic ... thing, with years in the 1980s and 1990s stamped in it. It's all near enough to the rebel town, the Russian border, and concealed rebel position that they think only rebels could operate there. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:12, 9 August 2014 (UTC)

Location Challenged
The above stuff, as of now and as I've been running it mainly, seems to bear out the vaunted "social media sleuths" placing the launcher and probably the launch in "separatist-held territory." I agree with all locations provided, and times too. Everyone acknowledges date is less sure. There are compelling clues pointing to concrete firing spot, that seems to be lined up the hit the jet head-on, as it's starting to seem the airliner was hit. In this narrative, the questions people should be asking is who was really running that. But readings differ, and some differing views can be considered here. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:45, 6 August 2014 (UTC)


 * MH17 Analysis – CDN

Petri posted this to the front page, a 25-page report with many graphics and explained reasoning. One of its conclusions, based on range to impact, mainly, meant that "the missile that downed MH17 was not fired from Snizhne." At the moment, I disagree. Petri, who is CDN, and are they soliciting feedback? --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:45, 6 August 2014 (UTC)
 * The anonymous PDF was published via Saker's blog: Detailed expert analysis of the MH17 downing "CDN" has responded twice in the comments. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 00:28, 8 August 2014 (UTC)

I think these might be part of what threw the author(s) off: --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:45, 6 August 2014 (UTC)
 * 1) the heading seems to be off, too southerly to trace back like that. At the end, maybe close enough
 * 2) possibly too-wide debris field starting too early - final breakup likely E-NE of their spot (ie closer to in range)
 * 3) Wrong presumed angle of impact
 * 4) Lack of knowledge, specified on page 23, of this contrail image or, obviously, the supporting clues pointing to what might be "the Telegraph site" excluded here. "Why are there no images of the rebel missile and its impressive launch contrail?" Oops, there is and it point there.


 * I just skimmed it before coming here. It was posted over here where you can join the discussion (which I haven't read yet just saw that Petri is there chiming in in comment 2 of currently 93). I think it's first valuable in presenting the known capabilities of the Buk etc. If your stuff above is true and it is one single truck with one single TELAR that was seen in the different locations, then it shows quite conclusively that the Telegraph position can not be the launching point, because even if the Ukie claim of disappearance from Radar 50km from the Russian border is not true, due to the position of the debris it could only be further away, not closer, which adds to the argument. My 2 cents for the moment. --CE (talk) 11:59, 7 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Oh, not directly related to the critique, but driving around with a huge phone number that leads to a Titan security of all places is more than a bit suspicious, I'd say. ;o) --CE (talk) 12:01, 7 August 2014 (UTC)


 * "the Telegraph position can not be the launching point" if my "stuff above is true and it is one single truck with one single TELAR that was seen in the different locations" - how? "because even if the Ukie claim of disappearance from Radar 50km from the Russian border is not true, due to the position of the debris it could only be further away, not closer, which adds to the argument." Huh? I think the field is placed really vaguely in that report, and that's what sets the impact point - it looks maybe kilometers off, to the west. Placed right, the implied impact point is further east, ie closer to the launcher. It is a valuable report, but that point should be re-checked more carefully before I could be convinced to write off all the other evidence pointing there. --Caustic Logic (talk) 13:33, 7 August 2014 (UTC)
 * Take a careful look at pages 9 and 10 of the PDF. Place the spot to where you think it's "right". Think how that would change the picture. The argument is based on the empirical location of the debris and unless I've missed some serious flaw in the numbers and basic calculations made on the pages leading to that, I think it's by rule of thumb a very sound argument. --CE (talk) 13:44, 7 August 2014 (UTC)
 * I'll do my own soon - I can say it would end further east, relative to the border there, and probably start further east too, but maybe I'm unaware of some outlying debris - but first a though on the debris field I just had, even more relevant than size and placement - what does it actually say re: the plane? He presumes it would follow the trajectory east. Not much, really. With only so much momentum and breaking up, with five miles to fall, the main factor will be wind. Even a breeze has five miles to act on it. That was so with PA 103 - the wind was about perpendicular to the path, and that determined just where stuff scattered on a line across the borders area right to the north sea - only the cockpit and a few things were off much from that line. Here, if it blewa along the flight path, the reasoning would work fine. If it blew back, to the west, the plane was probably shot further east than the field suggests. Ie, closer yet to in range. The Zuhres video above shows wind apparently to the northwest, and pretty strong. Worth a review and re-think in that light. --Caustic Logic (talk) 14:02, 7 August 2014 (UTC)
 * With an initial speed of 907 km/h I see no reason to take wind into serious account. I see no reason at all for going into more detail in this rule of thumb argument, not on the debris, not on the alleged launching point. But I'm as always looking forward to what you can come up with. ;o) --CE (talk) 14:29, 7 August 2014 (UTC)
 * btw there's no exact calculation of the traveled distance of the falling pieces, it's just found plausible resulting from other data. --CE (talk) 14:44, 7 August 2014 (UTC)
 * There's good reason. past precedent. I did read it wrong - the blue oval is about right, I thought the scale by it, which is way off. That's the 20 km drift - if the wind was blowing due east at the right speed... to the near edge of the oval and 30 km to the far edge... --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:01, 7 August 2014 (UTC)



Debris fields as shown in MH17 WSJ data combined.jpg. The two tracks, 118 per Flightradar24 and other sources, and 111 from a Russian graphic (see label C), just in case. They cross at point E just to look cool - superimpose wherever to visualize a track-back on these or any line between.

The four red "last points", eyeballed onto the map as shown in the various graphics used here (all pretty approximate):

A: last return, flightradar 24 (erred, I think, way too far along - I suspect some inherent offset...)

B: Russian ATC last return, '50 km' from the border (vague description, likely close to accurate)

C: end of 111 track shown in MH17 radar 1.png (maybe arbitrary, lower resolution)

D: report, deduced point of impact (presuming 20-30 km flight due east after impact, wind app. not considered at all)

E: My guess for breakup point, where the damaged front came apart (should maybe be further east, right over the south part of the first orange blob). Actual impact point, an unclear distance back. probably not very far - downward flight could start anytime after that, decreasing the lateral distance traveled).

The cockpit, aerodynamic, shows the most like forward trajectory of this, relatively minimal wind complication. The heavy forward parts had more drag, wound up NW of there. A bit further NW, the light, high-drag, punctured upper fuselage. That these parts aren't spread further out suggests the jet managed to descend some ways before the front totally fell apart, and/or that the wind was fairly light. From there, most of the plane remained together, kept more momentum and little wind effect, and crashed kilometers east. The last part of this plummet, about one minute seen on video, it was nose-free and essentially nose-diving. A slight north trend, perhaps curtailed eastward progress, largely just down, leaves it all hitting together by Hrabove, scattering woth the fireball trajectory and wind deciding where these bits landed. That it only got so far from the forward parts again suggests this breakup was fairly low in the fall - maybe just before the start of the one video. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:53, 8 August 2014 (UTC)

Wind direction: The plume video, if direction of view is known, will tell us what the wind was doing. I'd say it drifts to the left about 70%, towards camera about 30%, but maybe not. As noted, to the northwest in nearby Zuhres. Just looking the debris spread, I think it was northwest here as well. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:53, 8 August 2014 (UTC)