Talk:Alleged Chemical Attack Khan Sheikhoun 4 April 2017/Timeline

Timing
It's worth noting this attack - blamed on Syria or Russia (unclear so far) comes just as news broke of an apparent terrorist bombing in St. Petersburg (exact timing not clear yet) - the two events possibly help explain each other - Russia getting its fair retribution, or maybe taking unfair revenge ... and then likely not. It's a thought. --Caustic Logic (talk) 09:56, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Checked location - and the province it is in, barely in Idlib, to not look as dumb as the Pentagon. ;o) It is there up center north to see on the Hama frontline image, but it's a good chunk away from the frontlines, savely hidden behind "rebel" stronghold Morek/Mork. This comes as their annual Hama offensive has turned out to be another desaster, and as Peto Lucem wrote as description to the latest map, they lost 85% of their temporal gains. Loss of fighters seems to be massive, as the SAA by now knows how to let them come and then greet them in open field.
 * At this point the mad butcher Assad decides to draw a little attention to this by slaughtering some innocent kids - how typical of him! --CE (talk) 11:19, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Clearly the local battlefield timing is probably more relevant. Obvious revenge for the recent offensive, taken out on random innocents with something pointless and criminal. Seen that before. But if this comes out as a big bad Russian sarin attack, then that Russia connection will also stand out as likely. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:35, 4 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Another thought, there was the third batch of green bus rides from al-Waer to Idlib on April 1, several hundred "rebels" with families. I could imagine Khan Sheikhoun would be one of the nearest "safe" spots in Idlib province to drop them when you start from Homs, and it's directly at the M5 motorway. Possible victim group of "traitors" who had surrendered to the regime? --CE (talk) 11:55, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

Actually we do not even know when the Ghouta CW attack happened. There was a coordinated release of videos. They could have been filmed weeks earlier. We never saw any sign of the funerals or the grave sites. The same here, the coordinated release could have been prepared for days or weeks. One source hinted this already happened 5 days ago. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 14:25, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

Orient TV reporter Firas Karam tweets at 0:06 am GMT on April 4, 2017 (mirror) Translated by Within Syria‏. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 19:07, 4 April 2017 (UTC)
 * ''"tomorrow we are launching a media campaign to cover the airstrikes on Hama country side including the usage of CW"
 * No, I think that refers to a second Latamna chlorine attack after the one they say killed Dr. Darwish. It's not far away though. --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:34, 4 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Or... it was at the time, and now maybe it's this event, as discussed below ... (catching up) --Caustic Logic (talk) 23:37, 4 April 2017 (UTC)

All 10 rebel news agencies say this happened on April 4th, most with their own video. Half the world's media say this happened on April 4th. The White Helmets cave complex was bombed and partly destroyed on April 4th. Could all this happen on the same day? This is not the Al-Lataminah cave compound. If the stone wall is facing south, then the gas victims are seen 8 am in the morning, the bombed out building is shown around 5 pm. This video of the bombing is uploaded at 13:26:39 UTC, so it breaks the timeline. The Russian MoD says that the Syrian Airforce bombed an "ammunition dump containing chemical weapons" east of the town of Khan Sheikhoun. There is a stone quarry 1.5 km east of Khan Sheikhoun that could maybe be the White Helmets site. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 10:21, 5 April 2017 (UTC)

Video of purported bomb strikes on Khan Sheikhoun uploaded 04:59 am UTC 4 Apr 2107. Local time 07:59 am. Sunrise at location is 06:14. This indicates that if image is as stated and it was uploaded on the same day the incident occurred, the strikes occurred some time between 06:14am and say 07:30am.

Russian statement also refers to strikes between 11:30am and 12:30pm local time, so a second series of strikes seems likely.


 * Further statements about the first attack put it at 06:30 local time - which is not implausible given the sun angle. --Charles Wood (talk) 21:00, 5 April 2017 (UTC)

The morning strikes are conventional ANFO bombs of the type used by SyAAF. These are not at all suitable to deliver a nerve-gas payload. --Charles Wood (talk) 20:18, 5 April 2017 (UTC)


 * Trying to time a non-event that did not happen is like asking how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?
 * Anyway, this video from the White Helmets compound seems to be the earliest. It is filmed just after sunrise. The upload by the White Helmets is not the original. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 23:56, 5 April 2017 (UTC)


 * That upload time is 09:14 local time so 2:45 after potential gas exposure. However as you note, this is recycled video and there are upload delays, so its closer to 06:30 - say 07:00? --Charles Wood (talk) 03:07, 6 April 2017 (UTC)

My impression is that Russia and Syria government report on what they have available, that there was an attack by their side in the afternoon. Knowing that chemical attack was reported in social media, they conjecture that rebel chemical weap. storage was hit. If chemical incident was definitely earlier, that may still be that it was provocation by the rebels (and rebels would benefit more, by far) --Resup (talk) 06:15, 6 April 2017 (UTC)

Avigdor Lieberman: ''the two murderous chemical weapons attacks on civilians in the Idlib region in Syria and on the local hospital were carried out by direct and premeditated order of Syrian President Bashar Assad, with Syrian planes. I say this with 100 percent certainty. The cruelest thing...is that those who were evacuated from the area of the bombing to the hospital were attacked a second time with chemical weapons as Syrian army planes bombed the hospital''. To the question of whether Israel needs to respond to occurrences in Syria, the Defense Minister responded: “why do we need to do it ourselves? It’s the responsibility of the international community. I'm not ready for Israel to be the dick that the whole world pisses through. The world needs to take responsibility and, instead of just talking, needs to do something.”(source)

We are told that attacks were at 6:37 and 6:46 am. Not being a specialist, I understand that sarin symptoms develop within minutes, and those alive within several hours had low dose and likely survive (e.g.here). Evacuations at dawn hours will likely take more than several minutes and people would arrive to treatment in pretty bad shape; apparently 'bombing a hospital' is matching quite freshly exposed people we seem to see on videos. However, one of those videos (selected at random) shows shadows at about 1.5, below 2, of the height. That is roughly after 8.30 am, and not close to 6:46  am with 1 to 11 shadows. That much later after exposure, it's strange (though not impossible,--wind and stuff) that those people seem to  develop distress right in front of our eyes, as if it just happened and they are urgently treated. Back to Libermann, wondering what's the grounds of 100% certainty. As DM he may know exactly where the planes were, when, and that they dropped something; but for the rest, it is coming from social media, and he may not see much more than what we do. Just to make sure, I am no fan of the regime or the backers, but this by itself is not sufficient for a genuine 100 % certainty; while unjustified accusations/actions likely will not accomplish much in practice and moreover, play their hand, instead.--Resup (talk) 23:49, 8 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Agreed in general. The scenes at the hospital almost seem too late, tending to 7:30 - 8:00 and later, by sun (all app.) The symptoms seem mixed and largely fake, to me. One guy seems to get worse suddenly as the camera draws near, etc. (same guy is gulping for air like a fish, which is realistic, but with his mouth closed, which makes no sense (maybe to keep the "foam" in until the good camera arrived? see the early vid, first seconds - it's the same guy seen with mass foam in a quality photo from later, when the sun had broken across his face). Sarin moves very quick - in a few seconds you know how bad it is - the body breaks it down very quick and it kills quick - it's a race in microseconds - if you survive the first 30 seconds you'll probably survive, and if not... (something to that effect, I'm not sure on exact times - it could be minutes, but not tens of minutes) So I don't buy people trucked to this place, laying in the mud and wiggling an hour or so later. Besides, they all have clean underwear, little or no cyanosis, etc. I don't think the place was gassed or they were gassed here, with sarin. Maybe gassed with something else longer-acting, and a number of fakers. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:53, 11 April 2017 (UTC)


 * In re: Resup and the ratio of shadow length to object length (S/O). Does anyone have a link to an app where you can input date, location, S/O and get time of day? I believe I have seen a website that does that.Pierpont (talk) 14:17, 11 April 2017 (UTC)


 * In re: CL and sarin timing. Yeah, here's the interesting thing: people exposed to sarin run out of O2 (anoxic) b/c their breathing muscles are paralyzed. So by the time the brain realizes it's in trouble, it's too late to gasp, or gag, or cough, or scream, or try to suck more air because all of those things require the same paralyzed muscles that caused the anoxia. So when you see WH vids of people dramatically gasping for air, the WHs are kindly providing evidence that sarin was not the cause. It's a part of their public service to Syria and internet sleuths everywhere.Pierpont (talk) 14:17, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

Haq News Agency says on its Facebook page that the attack happened at 6:55 am. The are also the source of the video that shows the explosions. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 08:52, 14 April 2017 (UTC)

April 3 chlorine attack on al-Lataminah
White helmets were reporting of a chlorine attack on Khan Sheikhoun already on the evening of April 3. The victims seem to have been taken to the White Helmets cave complex in Khan Sheikhoun. The photograph published by All4Syria is from the same treatment room where the April 4th victims are later seen. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 08:04, 13 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Dozens of cases of suffocation with chlorine gas in a rural Hama and Idlib - All4Syria, April 3, 2017 (عشرات حالات الاختناق بغاز الكلور في ريفي حماة وإدلب)
 * ''Dozens of civilians, including children, suffered from suffocation on Monday, April 3, following inhalation of toxic chlorine gas which is delivered by regime helicopter aircraft on the city of Al-Lataminah in north Hama and the town al Habit in the southern countryside of Idlib.

Evidently al-Habit was bombed on April 3rd. This video claims it was done by Russian aviation. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 07:24, 14 April 2017 (UTC)

First signs of chemical exposure
I finally watched through my playlist. There is no sign of anything happening in Khan Sheikhoun before 10 am. The first video is uploaded by Assi Press Center at 06:33:22 UTC. It is is typical massacre porn, that avoids showing any context. Dead children in a pickup truck. For all we know this could be from Ghouta in 2013. Other early videos show alleged events at hospitals. This video is filmed outside, but the shadows are already quite short. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 11:41, 10 April 2017 (UTC)
 * I tried an Arabic Twitter search for Khan Sheikhoun and found at least these two:

I suspect it is a little slow, for some reason, taking about an hour before anyone hears about it. But, that's not very long, so it'll be debatable. --Caustic Logic (talk) 11:12, 11 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Under the chemical bombardment Allah suffices us and Yes, the agent - Apr 3 9:22 pm = 4:22am on the 4th UTC = 7:22am Syria
 * Another at 9:34 = 7:34.

Hospital Attack Time
US military says A jet was overhead Khan Sheikhoun at 0337z and 0346z. Add 2 hours for local time, you get 5:37 and 5:46 am. DST might add to the, making it 6:37 and 6:46. Rebels say attack is around 6 am - video suggests low sunlight and cold air, which means early morning, as victims are displayed - but Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem "said the government's first strike happened at 11:30 a.m., about five hours after reports of the chemical attack emerged." (CNN)

CNN also notes Moallem says that hit a chemical weapons depot fro al-Nusra front, and how "Russia said that the deaths were caused by the Syrian regime strike on the munitions depot. But several chemical weapons experts dismissed Russia's claims as "chemically impossible" and "laughable."" And, unless we reject Syria's claim as to when, the sunlight angle and cold air show the people were dead hours earlier than that (that's also presuming same day) --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:12, 9 April 2017 (UTC)


 * So, by the Trump admin. story, all bombing was done in the span 6:37 to 6:46, right? If so, it should be visible before victims were gathered and displayed there (that'll take more than 9 minutes). But no damage or sense of recent attack is evident in the videos. I had a look at Bellingcat's work on this: it suggests when the hospital was hit, the larger building had its back end blown out, leaving the roof sloping down. That, we can see, is intact in the earlier views. So ... was it hit later than the US says?



I tried to measure this - south building facade line runs around 75 degrees on the compass - presuming the same basic angle for the two structures behind it, sunlight in the later view is mainly hitting the south face, east walls in shallow shadow. My visual try for azimuth (compass direction to the sun): 173-177 degrees = 12:23-12:32 pm. The government says its first strike happened at 11:30 a.m. Earliest proof it was hit: about an hour later.

Five hours earlier, that wasn't hit yet. Exact time doesn't matter enough, but ... sun mainly hitting east walls, but also breaking across the south face surface, so at an azimuth of least 80 degrees. What angle, not sure. The NOAA solar calculator (set to location, date, GMT+2, DST on) says: In each case, subtract 75 to gt app. angle of incidence relative to the wall. What do we think? Is maybe even later? Solar elevation: how long are people's shadows relative to their height? Looks like about 3x, maybe 2.5, or 4 times?. Between these, it would be nice to get a best time estimate, and set a time frame during which that damage happened. And It's worth double-checking what the Trumpco claim really is. --Caustic Logic (talk) 15:33, 9 April 2017 (UTC)
 * It was already 82.37 degrees at sunrise, 6:16 am.
 * At 6:37 it would be 85.4 degrees,
 * at 6:46 it'd be 86.7 deg.
 * 2.2x body height = 22 deg = 8:08 am
 * 3x = 18 deg. = 7:48
 * 4x = 14 deg. = 7:28
 * app. 10x = 5.44 deg. = 6:46
 * app. 15x = 3.7 deg. = 6:37


 * The point was, it's clearly nowhere near 6:30 when that place is damaged, but as I explain below, that appeared relevant but then I guess it isn't. But to seal the deal, and for what it's worth:


 * Hadi Abdullah? video around noon, at the crater by the silos - a distant plume to the southeast lines up with the cave hospital, hit recently. I made a graphic to show that, but it's not needed now.
 * another video seems to be filmed in the hospital as it's hit. People rush outside after the blast, there's smoke, the building is damaged, it's noon. Another plume rises to the south from something hit recently. --Caustic Logic (talk) 01:10, 10 April 2017 (UTC)

This is a bit confused, but apparently, it was not alleged (by most) to be hit around 6:30.
 * CNN reported "US military and intelligence analysts have now confirmed it was Syrian regime warplanes that struck a hospital in Idlib province with chemical weapons. The US picked up the radar intelligence that regime warplanes were in the air and got the infrared signature of bombs detonating at the hospital according to a US official with direct knowledge of the information." That suggests it was in the cited 6:37-6:46 window when people were said to be gassed.


 * And Fox News reports "A hospital in Syria's northern Idlib province was hit soon after the area was bombarded with a suspected chemical agent, an AFP correspondent reported."


 * but [abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/latest-syrian-field-hospital-hit-chemical-attack-46564128 ABC reports] at 2:35 p.m.: "Syrian opposition activists say an airstrike has hit a small field hospital in a town in northern Syria where a suspected chemical weapons attack took place earlier in the day. The head of the opposition's civil defense force in Khan Sheikhoun, in Idlib province, says the hospital was struck hours after the alleged gas attack that killed dozens of people.''


 * and CNN reports "The US military official said the Pentagon was examining specifically whether a Russian warplane had bombed a hospital in Khan Sheikhoun five hours after the initial chemical attack, with the aim of destroying evidence. A US defense official says intelligence shows a Russian drone flew over the hospital in Idlib that was treating victims of the chemical attack, prior to the site being later bombed by an unknown aircraft."

Syria claims an attack on a militant base in the area around 11:30. So I guess the firstreport was confused and meant they think it was Syrian jets that hit the hospital after the chemical attack, and it wasn't the Russians as they were considering. It's unclear if they still think they know the motive and it was to cover up evidence. --Caustic Logic (talk) 00:59, 10 April 2017 (UTC)


 * This Video by Maaz Al-Shaami shows a bomb strike on the underground hospital at around noon judging by the sun angle. So the conclusion is there were two air raids. One at 06:30 to 07:00 local time involving gas and a second at 11:30 to 12:30 using conventional bombs on the underground hospital at least. Incidentally, the second raid had beige bomb clouds so very likely SyAAF aircraft did the bombing, not Russian. --Charles Wood (talk) 05:36, 11 April 2017 (UTC)
 * SNHR: "suspected Russian warplanes fired missiles on Civil Defense Center in Khan Sheikhoun city in Idlib governorate southern suburbs, destroying its building, damaging its equipment and an ambulance and rendering it inoperable on April 4, 2017." (photo) Same thing in a tweet, and a bit earlier, "#RussianForces shelled al Rahma Hospital in #KhanSheikhoun city in #Idlib on April 4" (same place presumably, interior photo) That's from 4:12 pm local time, a long delay even after a noon strike. --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:31, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

Water triage

 * ''Summary: The water triage scene looks staged, none of the "victims" received treatment at the White Helmets hospital. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 01:26, 13 April 2017 (UTC)

I have spent the night looking at my playlist of videos from the White Helmets cave complex. I could not find any obvious continuity errors. On the other hand, I found no proof that any chemical weapons victims were ever treated at the White Helmets hospital.

Ten of the videos form a timeline from about 9 am to late afternoon, that can with high confidence be dated to April 4th.

The White Helmets are being very secretive about the early morning events at the cave complex. The videos of the hosing scene appeared only in the afternoon. Screenshots of the videos appeared online earlier. It is uncertain if this scene happened on April 4th at all. The clips that are available are very heavily edited, 100% massacre porn with little if anything that could help in dating them. They were given to rebel news agencies and mixed with April 4 footage and interviews before publication. The strongest call for World War 3 is in the SMART media video that was viewed on Facebook 20 million times.

The hosing scene is typical White Helmets. Hysterical action and running around, without any purpose. The victims are likely brought in on white two flatbed pickup trucks. They are dumped on the ground and hosed with water from a fire engine parked inside the cave entrance. Later we see that the fire engine has been moved to near the entrance to the enclosed courtyard. At some point children are packed into ambulances to be taken away, but it is never clear if the victims are coming in or going out.

Two sisters and their likely little brother are seen dumped to the ground. Two hour later they are seen on a pickup truck in downtown Khan Sheikhoun, in the first video claiming to show signs of a chemical attack.

Later in the day (if this truly is the same day) there is something like an open house at the compound. Everything is very relaxed, except for the excitement caused by the midday bombing. No CW related medical work seems to be happening. Five bodies are shown, there may be ten total at the site. One girl is carried around in different levels of undress.

The first video in this series is by Orient News. Shadows show that it is about one hour later in the day than in the hosing scene. One child with blood on his feet is seen in the treatment room. One body lies covered in sheets on the rightmost table. One small child is carried outside wrapped in a red blanket. There is no sign outside of the hosing scene ever happening.

Some two hours later we see that the treatment room has been totally cleaned up. There are clean sheets on the beds, fresh IV solution bags hang from the stands, waiting for new patients. AFP interviews a medic, who said the hopital had received 200 patients today, 50 of whom were dead. The dead girl lies on the table. In the next video, by Aleppo Media Center she is carried outside. We see the body of one female outside and the bodies of two adult men in the motorcycle garage. Earlier photos of the garage show four other bodies that have evidently been taken away. All fighting age men, most with beards.

Something happens around 12:30 am. A bomb explodes. The first we hear about it is in this fake video by a Yaman Khateeb, who reports on it on his Facebook page at 12:39. It is unlikely that a bomb outside would affect the treatment room. Instead someone seems to light a flare in the room.

Later videos show part of the building outside the cave destroyed. The same bodies are there, so it must be the same day. Hadi Alabdallah and his friend Maaz al-Shami seem extremely exited about the blasts outside. I am not sure any Syrian bomb ever fell on the compound. The building looks like it was blown up from the inside. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 07:10, 10 April 2017 (UTC) Updated 14:40, 12 April 2017 (UTC)

Differences between Day X and April 4th
Did the water triage scene really happen on April 4th? -- Petri Krohn (talk) 09:14, 10 April 2017 (UTC)
 * There is a bench at the eastern end of the courtyard The Reuters photo by Ammar Abdullah show some red sacks on it. These are missing from the Day X footage.
 * The same photo shows a blanket and some clothes on the platform outside the doorway. None of these are seen on the Day X footage.


 * Petri, I'm getting oriented, at least spatially, with this scene; still confused temporally. That bench is actually a concrete slab. The best view of it is in the 2:02 SMART vid where all the spraying is going on. At about 00:30 there are three guys in their underwear lying prostrate on the slab/bench. Next to the R foot of the guy with the nice clean white undies there is an orange EMT body board. The same body board lying on the same slab is seen in the same vid at 00:27.  The three guys are not there. This 00:27 view is very helpful


 * At the right end of the slab/bench is a doorway. At the left end of the slab/bench is a garage. A large white truck is backed into the garage.


 * Now go to the Abdullah image of the WH guy with the Canon-strap carrying the kid wrapped in blue plastic. There are several short vid clips showing this scene. It is the same spot as above. In this scene the grey/red ambulance #13 is parked in the garage. The same motorcycle is parked next to the garage in both scenes. The WH guy is walking toward the slab/bench. As you note, there are blankets or bags on the slab/bench. There is no body board and no guys in wet skivvies. In the photo there are virtually no shadows. In the 2:02 SMART vid, the ground is in shadow right up to and including the slab/bench. The ground is covered with water in the vid and no tire tracks, but not much water in the photo, only mucky with lots of tire tracks. I haven't figured out the sequence.


 * Of further interest in the 2:02 vid: at 01:30 a guy is spraying down someone on the ground. In the background is a dark car with a guy in white underwear hoping around like he is getting dressed or undressed. He throws something into the car. I think these actors are probably union, so he may be at the end of his shift. -- Pierpont (talk) 04:35, 12 April 2017 (UTC)


 * I have ordered my playlist in what I believe to be the temporal order. In the end I have included videos that have short clips of additional footage. I believe the Ammar Abdullah photos and video are taken on April 4th, before the bombing, as they show some of the same bodies as seen on April 4th, both before and after the bombing.
 * The bench I am speaking about is not the slab, but all the way back against the eastern wall of the courtyard. -- Petri Krohn (talk) 06:17, 12 April 2017 (UTC)