Talk:Syria news/Current

There is a dynamic situation with fighting and accusations rapidly appearing. How and when this appears on mainpage can use some discussion. I do not plan to realy follow in real time, due to time constraints; may do occasionally if I spot something and it appears important.

But this hospital report for example, BBC (I think it was first posted yesterday). We see a guy telling about multiple strikes, showing us something which my quick guess is mortar tail fragment, and shows a building not particularly wrecked and holes on sides rather than on tops, etc. So I do not particularly believe this report, on the first look at it (also nothing can be prevented as it is a report on what happened already). --Resup (talk) 10:32, 2 October 2016 (UTC)


 * The propaganda war is ultra hot at the moment. Can't hurt to wait a day or two before something turns out to be real news (or not). No need to cluster our news line with fakes and misreporting. I doubt anyone will use it as their "latest rumor" breaking news ticker. --CE (talk) 11:31, 2 October 2016 (UTC)

This cannot be seen anywhere else...

4 Oct. According to Rusvesna report and photos, at 15.50 UN headquarters team site in Хайй-эш-Шахба district (Hay-ash-Shahba, robot translated as Hayy al-Hussain) of Aleppo city  came under mortar shelling. 7 people were killed and 16 wounded. The aftermath, mortar shell fragments are shown.

It may be a UN team site, and somebody can be killed. Though probably no UN personnel is left in Aleppo, so it may be UN cars damaged and some unknown people killed. But still curious why is there total silence, not even discussion of whether or not it is reliable/newsworthy --Resup (talk) 07:57, 7 October 2016 (UTC)


 * "Hay" is district/neighborhood. Shabha is Here on Wikimapia Just north of the University, which was just shelled, killing five. I saw something with the damaged cars as part of that attack. Al Alam report mentions the 7 dead, in different areas (only 2 at the university at first, so the total went up). That was searching twitter ... it's not talked about much, in English. Nothing else about UN involvement. --Caustic Logic (talk) 08:24, 7 October 2016 (UTC)


 * Source: 'UN staff arrived to east of Aleppo for the withdrawal of militants'-RIA Novosti (in Russian), October 15, 2016.
 * ''UN staff arrived in one of the districts in Aleppo, to begin the process of withdrawal of militants armed groups in the eastern part of the city, a source at the scene told Sputnik agency


 * US State Department Unaware of Humanitarian Corridors in Syria’s Aleppo-Sputnik News, October 15, 2016.
 * --Resup (talk) 13:40, 15 October 2016 (UTC)

Debka/el Murid got a partition (zones) map ... (Somebody is learning how to do graphics, or what?)--Resup (talk) 17:00, 28 January 2017 (UTC)

Discussion

 * Obama Warned to Defuse Tensions with Russia-"Consortium News", 2 Oct. 2016
 * ''A group of ex-U.S. intelligence officials is warning President Obama to defuse growing tensions with Russia over Syria...
 * This may be more important than it looks. At some point, differences between Russia and Turkey looked very bad and hopeless; but the two leaders met, and a way forward was found by a miracle. In Syria, Russia is out of its depth, if solving crisis is the goal. It is caught in the midst of Middle Easter warfare, which is not one of its vital interests. While in the conflict in Ukraine, it is of vital importance to Russia, and, apart from opposing Russia for the sake of opposing it, there is no vital US interest in Ukraine. --Resup (talk) 20:36, 12 October 2016 (UTC)


 * 17 Nov. 2016. Russian blogger El-Murid (pro-Strelkov circle) : "Russian mighty strike on Aleppo clearly stalled. Russia has assembled almost all its all combat-capable fleet, added aircrafts at Hmeymim airbase, possibly again agreed with the Iranians, although behind the scenes (after a sharp Iranian demarche when angry Iranian generals openly demanded that the Russian partners shut up and not shout to the whole world about using Iranian airfield). In general, everything is ready - there is no decision.
 * The Kremlin was fully confident of Clinton winning and was preparing for the strike on Aleppo, trying to create a better configuration for the  future painful bargaining. But Trump won - and what to do now, the Kremlin does not understand. To bomb Aleppo - to let Trump down and create problems for him talking to Putin. Therefore, for the time being it was decided to slow down, and in order to not just stand idle - to "iron"  Idlib. And that is being done, but without fanaticism - field munition storages are not made of rubber, and if you still have to level Aleppo to the ground, they should be kept filled". --Resup (talk) 19:26, 18 November 2016 (UTC)


 * Hersh: Trumps Red Line - discussion moved to Talk:Alleged_Chemical_Attack_Khan_Sheikhoun_4_April_2017

KIA

 * Animation by "Patriot" video studio (published 14 Nov 2016, and seen on Cassad on 18-th), dedicated to heroic death of Marine sergeant Andrey Leonidovich Timoshenkov, 15 June 2016. He was based at a camp near Palmyra. According to the animation, he was assisting delivering humanitarian aid to Homs province. 3 jihad mobiles attacked their convoy; 2 were stopped by anti-aircraft gun mounted on a convoy vehicle, but one attacking car kept moving. In the animation, Timoshenkov runs towards attacking vehicle with a grenade launcher and hits it before the vehicle impacts the convoy. He was gravely wounded and despite all efforts to save him died in a hospital
 * (see also: Russian deployment in Syria-reported deaths, 19 June 2016 entry.) --Resup (talk) 19:26, 18 November 2016 (UTC)


 * Russian national news service: two Russian female military medics killed in Aleppo will be buried in their home town of Birobidzhan. No genuine memorial photos of the ladies were seen so far, only fakes in some user comments. --Resup (talk) 18:38, 6 December 2016 (UTC)

Russian MoD TU 154 crash
MOD announcement. Musicians from the Alexandrov's ("Red Army") Choir, reporters, a celebrity doctor Elizaveta Glinka (Dr. Lisa), several military personnel. on the plane. Crashed shortly after take-off near Sochi, Russia (and en route to Latakia, Syria). User comments point out wide spread of fragments, some quoting interfax say it is over an area of 15 km, repeated here on BBC service in Russian at 2:27. BBC Engl. report includes a photo with some fragments. Wide spread of fragments, if true, is significant, as it indicates mid-air explosion or disintegration. Official reports seem to favor technical problem or pilot error. TASS running updates; 10 bodies found at this point. Videos from crash at sea show many small fragments (debris spread area uncertain from those videos).--Resup (talk) 11:33, 25 December 2016 (UTC)
 * "A footage showing bright flash in the sky was published. Internet users actively discuss what does this flash signify". Rusvesna, 25 December 2016. Flash is 1 to 2 seconds long, bright (video 1)(video 2).
 * Very bright, 2 s+, on video 3 Video 3 is almost certainly fake, what is shown is Moscow bypass road, here
 * Flash above the skyline/horizon, video 4
 * Yet Russian investigators indicate that terrorist act "is not the main version": Sochi intermediate landing was not planned in advance. Only 3 people entered the plane at Sochi, 2 border guards and 1 customs official. Only 1 person left the plane, the navigator-pilot, to oversee refueling. Food was not loaded on board in Sochi. -According to a version of events here. "A source at the HQ of the recovery operation" told Interfax that "the flash was recorded 30 minutes after the plane disappeared from the radars".
 * Piloting error or mechanical problems which developed very quickly. There was one case when TU 154 turned upside down, possibly because one wing flaps ended up raised, while on the other wing they were not. There were cases of those planes going into spin. There are small fragments over quite wide area. It has to hit water at a great speed -or disintegrate in the air to begin with.
 * Media reports: there is a witness, a FSB coastguard who was at sea. He describes plane moving too slowly and nose unnaturally up, in the next moment touching water with the tail and breaking up. So far those are just words printed in a newspaper, no photos, no video interview, no other witnesses, etc. It is also said that investigators have a video recording, but it is unclear what this refers to; it may be different to anything seen so far in public domain, or one of those. Some plane fragments are shown on photos here.
 * TASS. The catastrophe happened when pilots were removing flaps. The plane was turning right and had nose up, for reasons not fully determined. It collided with water at a speed of about 510 km/h
 * Voice recorder was recovered and read. There was a problem with flaps (Rusvesna).
 * --Resup (talk) 02:35, 26 December 2016 (UTC), last updated --Resup (talk) 10:49, 28 December 2016 (UTC)

Tributes
Mireille Mathieu & Les Choeurs De L' Armee Rouge : " Le Temps Du Muguet ", Oct 11, 2014
 * User Евгений Волков said на видео хор ВВ МВД..., но хору Александрова вечная память....

Packed stadium in Serbia, around 20K, sings in commemoration of the Alexandrov ensemble, before the start of a basketball game

Members of the NYC Schiller Institute Community Chorus sing the Russian National Anthem outside the Russian Consulate in New York in honor of the passengers, many of them members of the Alexandrov Ensemble, who died when their plane crashed enroute to Syria. Helga Zepp-LaRouche, Chairwoman, International Schiller Institute, Sunday, December 25, 2016


 * last updated --Resup (talk) 18:58, 31 December 2016 (UTC)

April, 2017
Some observations. (1) The West very coherent line (USA=UK=France=...): Russia! You MUST drop support of Assad. Then you may be permitted to be part of civilized world (like a small part, maybe). The 'only problem with that', it is not going to happen like that (as unaffordable loss of face and manhood, basically--it went way too far for such a turn around). It does not help 'the Western cause' that there is no irrefutable proof of 'Assad the butcher', and what's on the table has too much 'brown-nosing' sort of smell to it for a successful sale to pretty shrewd Russian people. (2) Likewise, the Russian line is not too bright either. They did not plan to own the Syrian mess when moving in, but signs are, they may be getting deeper into it by the day, having no better chessgame plan available (like, no prospect of the US Congress to vote overwhelmingly that Crimea and Donbass are Russian, etc). OK, so deeper they go; and if that becomes another Afghanistan for them (as hoped by some, perhaps), it is not going to solve anything and will be just a much bigger mess. It is not the late 1980's and patriotic and anti-Western sentiments in Russia are much stronger. There is also more information (and understanding of real value) which cannot be easily 'voice-Americaned' one more time. Is more mess in Russia/Syria going to be good for MAGA? --Probably not, not at this time in history (more trade-disrupting regional conflicts, more extremism, less people to sell to, money spent on weapons cannot be also spent on something else, etc.).--Resup (talk) 18:42, 16 April 2017 (UTC)

Some Russian media claims that some Arab media claims that al-Bagdadi is arrested escaping from Mosul, crossing from Iraq to Syria (Engl)(Life.ru)(Rusvesna). Unsure what to make of it, almost like too good to be true feel, do not see in Western media.
 * Officially, "Putin congratulated Assad with 71 anniversary of independence of Syria" . (There is quite some tradition in nondemocracies for things to happen exactly on anniversaries --but may be some sort of spirit-raising gossip too).
 * --Resup (talk)13:53, 18 April 2017 (UTC)


 * “The DESI European Department Security and Information Service closely follows the story of Baghdadi’s arrested by Russians”, 18 Apr. 2017


 * ''The Information Office of the Secretary General of the DESI European Department of Security and Information announced that:


 * ''“the office had received accurate information indicating that the leader of al-Qaeda “Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi” may have been arrested in the north of Syria through a monitoring by the Syrian-Russian joint intelligence. This came after Baghdadi forcibly left Mosul as a result of the pursuit of his popular mobilization forces on April 2, 2017 and his entry to the Syrian border. The media office indicated that it will refrain from accurate information of the details of the operation pending confirmation of some of them and information still coming as a result of the accuracy of the stage and the consequences that may result from it. He pointed out that the interconnectedness of the units that resulted in the airport of hairs and the use of the chemical in Khan Shaykhun, Which is not to be attended by any Syrian team and will be limited to America, Russia and the UN delegate only may be to discuss a political settlement may be in part due to the Russian President Vladimir Putin About al-Baghdadi, which could undermine America’s credibility and shake credibility with its claims in international forums, may be relevant. Dr. Abu Said said that after contacting the head of the department Luciano Consorti and the Executive Council, who expressed great satisfaction to arrest al-Baghdadi, this helps to clarify the many things that happened in the past”


 * No real clarity, neither withdrawn nor confirmed at this point as far as I can tell. Some reports came yesterday, RUDAW quoting Russian FM, and some Pentagon presser; those basically were saying that they do not have any information--Resup (talk) 12:10, 19 April 2017 (UTC)
 * Assad: 'that's not true' (video of interview to Sputnik, 3:25. Reporter and Assad both smile).--Resup (talk) 00:54, 23 April 2017 (UTC)

May, 2017
Interesting to see whether Lavrov trip to Washington and other such moves will bring about any common ground (does not look too promising). There is a speculation in the air along the lines anticipating competition of RussiaSyriaIran vs the Western team over control of Syria-Iraq border. That in part was fueled by military exercises in Jordan; Jordan denied invasion plans. It is actually quite doubtful that one of the two main players involved will go for single-handily owning the problem. We will see. --Resup (talk) 12:01, 15 May 2017 (UTC)

June, 2017
With defeat of cities- controlling state-like IS in sight, pro-government allies and Russia explore stabilization force. The danger is that after IS defeat, it may turn into fight of Western-backed insurgency against pro-government forces and allies, never really ending, or ending by exhaustion of one of the sides (end result of this will be differently named militant Islamist entity) --Resup (talk) 07:28, 23 June 2017 (UTC)

More/sources
'Syrian Army strike group prepares for an attack on Raqqa' - Rusvesna, 20 Apr. 2017 --Resup (talk) 12:13, 20 April 2017 (UTC)

Putin-Erdogan
The meeting on 3 May 2017 (see the mainpage) appeared to show some convergence of positions on Syria, or was phrased that way at least. At the meeting, restoration of trade (formerly at 100 bln per year) was discussed, and it was announced that Russian sanctions will be lifted. (Russian patriotic opposition comments on Crimean Tatars/un-recognition of Crimea issue; no changes here, apparently). Russian sanctions were introduced after Russian military plane was shot down (talk)) by Turkey.--Resup (talk) 12:23, 4 May 2017 (UTC)


 * I can't believe that it was very harmonic behind the scenes, given what has happened the previous week and how the US and Russia both backed the YPG in their respective zones of influence. I imagine Erdogan had to at least verbally abandon his wacky plans to conquer Raqqa to get such a nice surface meeting with Putin. And today we see the Turks playing nice with both Iran and Russia at Astana. Erdogan seems to know that the alternative is the no-fly zones he long begged for, only that it is him that isn't allowed to fly. I'm quite confident that we will see less Turkish troublemaking in the near future, but the guy just isn't a rational actor. --CE (talk) 18:48, 4 May 2017 (UTC)

Flynn
Re Turkey & Kurds operation, Would be nice to have his version of events but there won't be public comments because of the investigation(s). Can be less than what it looks like, he had some lobbying or consulting business in the past. For a military operation of any sort, they needed to review all available information, including intelligence --which they likely did not have fully at that point, diplomatic implications, etc, review all that and do planning, etc. Quite likely, they were not ready to approve, and so they did not. That could be the reason, not a monetary incentive (which could be for past and completed work). --Resup (talk) 12:28, 18 May 2017 (UTC)

Raqqa airstrike

 * 'Daesh leader al-Baghdadi was killed', A pro-Daesh online portal claims terror group leader has been killed by airstrike on Raqqa, Yeni Safak, 13 June, 2016
 * Has ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi been killed in US air strike? Reports say he has died in Raqqa but no confirmation from coalition, Daily Mail, 14 June, 2016
 * BREAKING NEWS: ISIS leader Al-Baghdadi may have been killed in a targeted airstrike of a meeting in Raqqa according to Russian defence, Daily Mail, 16 June, 2017
 * strike time in Russian sources: 28 May, 2017 00:35–00:45 --Resup (talk) 08:00, 16 June 2017 (UTC)

US shoots down Syrian plane, June 18, 2017
Ja Din is near Resafa, road intersection on SAA way to Raqqa, in competition with the Kurds (warfare over there is by roads, they say...). Can go to Der iz-Zur via that intersection too.--Resup (talk) 02:17, 19 June 2017 (UTC)


 * Twitter roundup: Jadin was reported captured by SAA - implicitly from ISIS - in the hours before the incident, as well as the village Al-Easawii, almost up to the Resafa crossroad. It was this pinnacle of alarming advances in just a few days that the US coincidentally was forced, absolutely forced, to cause them some pain, and maybe signal that they need to slow down. tweet with map of advances vs. JaDin) However, http://syriancivilwarmap.com/ shows both SDF and SAA expanding past what Peto Lucem shows - generally pushing east along the deconfliction line. [tweet While Ja'Din is roughly on that line, by this it should be in SDF's expasion area. So maybe there were crossed wires as the SDF tried to cut the SAA advance, and the SAA wound up liberating it from them, thinking it was ISIS? Prior reports of SDF capture of any clashes may be around, but not located yet. --[[User:Caustic Logic|Caustic Logic]] (talk) 04:19, 19 June 2017 (UTC)


 * But this is not the same issue as the bombs dropped later, around 6:45 pm. Clearly, any bombs dropped "near SDF forces" would also be somewhat "near" ISIS forces, and SAA. The important question is who were the bombs dropped ON? The statements so far remain unclear about this. --Caustic Logic (talk) 04:19, 19 June 2017 (UTC)

The anti-government SOHR agrees with pro-government sources - the jet was hit over "al-Resafa" south of the deconfliction line, and not targeting SDF forces, but ISIS ones, and the pilot's fate remains unclear. (cited in"Mistakes" Behind 4 US Attacks on Syrian Forces, which includes this incident with three others.) --Caustic Logic (talk) 10:15, 19 June 2017 (UTC)

Preparations for Turkey's Afrin operation?

 * Final preparations for Turkey's Afrin operation - yenisafak.com, 27 Jun. 2017
 * Turkey and Syria prepare for an embargo and attack on Rojava -ANF News, 22 Jun 2017
 * Announcements -Cassad, 28 Jun. 2017 (after an unrelated item on missile exercises)
 * --Resup (talk) 06:56, 28 June 2017 (UTC)

Bagdadi, killed or not?

 * Alsumaria News / Nineveh, said a local source in Nineveh province, on Tuesday, that the organization of "Daesh" announced in a very brief statement about the death of its leader, known as Abu Bakr al - Baghdadi and spoke near the declaration of the name of the "new successor", referring to the organization called on its militants to continue what he called "stability in the strongholds", July 11, 2017
 * Independent from IS another similar organization is declared with a capital in Tal-Afar, Nineveh Governorate, Iraq (map), -RIA, referring to Iraqi channel Alsumaria, 13 July, 2017
 * Iraq denies killing suspected al-Baghdadi, Alarabiya.net, 16 July, 2017 robo-translation
 * The last article is referred to by TASS (saying that he is not hiding in Raqqa, while robo-translation suggests that he does, tenderness city is, I believe, robo-version of Raqqa): The leader of IS Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is alive and hiding in Syria. This was stated by the director of the Intelligence and Counter-Terrorism Operations Service of the Iraqi Interior Ministry Abu Ali al-Basri  --Resup (talk) 16:41, 16 July 2017 (UTC)
 * 'New clues bolster belief that ISIS leader is still alive — and busy with a chilling new mission' -WaPo, May 19, 2018
 * The operative said Baghdadi — a university professor before becoming a terrorist — and other top leaders decided early on to prioritize the indoctrination of children and recruits. Wikipedia says that he has BA, MA, PhD in Islamic studies (or education) from the university of Baghdad, and gives his occupation as either Islamic cleric or administrative work (secretary). Apart from a claim on leadership and desire for indoctrination, there seem to be no other evidence of making him a professor (apart from this current wapazonomy). --Resup (talk) 18:50, 20 May 2018 (UTC)
 * The gathering near the city of Deir al-Zour was called by Baghdadi personally to discuss rewriting the terrorist group’s educational curriculum...“Several top leaders were present, as well as the curricula committee, which I headed,” the captured officer, known as Abu Zaid al-Iraqi, said in a videotaped statement aired on Iraqi television.

Raqqa
--Resup (talk) 19:57, 17 October 2017 (UTC)
 * Before the war, apparently quite multicultural (Sunni, Alawi, some Christians, some Armenians), all apparently coexisting quite well
 * IS days, a quite strict version of Sharia
 * in Oct 2017:
 * liberated,
 * (NY Times) captured
 * (BBC): falls to US-backed Syrian forces
 * Thereafter, --(?)--- (to be seen).


 * The plan is that the Raqqa Civil Council takes over, which has been formed months ago already and consists of local figures of all parts of society. Modeled after Öcalan ideology. I guess it also elected their local council heads at the recent "Rojava" election. We'll see how this pans out in the broader context. So far, in places like Manbij this kind of government seems to work pretty well. --CE (talk) 20:17, 17 October 2017 (UTC)

Chinese?
More pronouncements on Chinese commandos, becoming a sport already (see also main page)--Resup (talk) 02:15, 1 December 2017 (UTC)

Russia's next steps?
Presidential elections in Russia, March 2018, so it's nice if things are nice'n' presentable, but if not, no matter. With this, some extra want for  diplomatic resolution (But with things as they are, more nasty games from the Western partners instead are likelier. Those can deliver some paint, but no change; more chaos does not count). Internally, some figures are strongly opposed to the war in Syria, but this is a given, compartmentalized, and near-term of near-zero practical consequence. --Resup (talk) 19:30, 30 November 2017 (UTC)

On troops withdrawal, loosely based on Strelkov-Kalashnikov, which I am yet to see in full, and go by posted summary. (1) There is not supposed to be Russian troops on the ground to begin with, but it is believed that there are private military contractors (PMC (eng)/ChVK (Rus) 'Wagner', etc). Troop withdrawal then may be uncorrelated with actual boots on the ground, and it is hard to know exactly (there are ChVK losses, as per source). I have not seen solid numbers, either way (2) Airbases will be kept so some MoD troops need to remain (3) as per source, those in power 'would not want to fight Israel', which they say 'is about to enter the war'. This claim is probably based on emotions + populism as expressed, but it is of course correct that Iranian presence + supply route to Lebanon creates dangers of external actions. However there is no recent change here, and developments are more likely related to internal Russian politics, elections, 'home for Christmas' stuff, not to an imminent and non-routine Israeli actions. (It is observed that the source failed to cheer up the announcement, despite being against involvement in Syria in general)   --Resup (talk) 17:30, 13 December 2017 (UTC)

Rex Tillerson address at Hoover
Mr. Tillerson is a professional engineer, who said that "Assad gassed his own people" (in 2013, and in 2017, Khan Sheikhoun). So obviously either ourselves or him is making a mistake, by laws of Aristotle's logic. Otherwise, main trust is for a political settlement (via UN/Geneva, Astana not mentioned), while making a case for continued US presence (webcast). --Resup (talk) 20:24, 17 January 2018 (UTC)


 * It's always surprising how these people can chain one falsehood after another for large amounts of time. This was a totally useless appearance where he repeated all stereotypes and said nothing about the pressing issues at hand - how can Erdogan stunningly ask NATO the day before to protect Turkey from the US and he doesn't address any of it? Well, in these closed circles it's rather easy, as long as the only one who asks you questions is Condoleeza Rice, of all people. What a waste of time. *rolleyes* --CE (talk) 20:36, 17 January 2018 (UTC)

'Olive trench'
Regarding Russia non-preventing this, all the usual 'we live in real world' stuff may apply, but I have this take on it. Russia is initially in Syria on Obama invitation to fight IS (twisted as it was), according to Strelkov. Whether his source is accurate or not, it is clear that making friends with USA has been substantial part of Russia's rhetoric and diplomatic efforts, in pursuit of various short and long term vital interests. It is hard to defend against the claim that efforts to mend relations failed; at least this is pretty accurate as of this day. In this setup, Kurds became part of US agenda in Syria, and their strong defense by Russia overwhelmingly implausible (and not only on the military side of it). This is rather typical in the Middle East, with smaller nations getting in geopolitical crossfire between big powers on a regular basis, USA and USSR backing opposing sides, etc (more gwalt on recent events on MoA)--Resup (talk) 07:39, 22 January 2018 (UTC)


 * It appears, as I suggested elsewhere (ahem), that the Turkish incursion into Afrin using majority insurgent fighters has removed much men and materiel from South-Eastern Idlib resulting in the SAA making significant battlefield gains. It may be the failed Turkish column to South-East Idlib was intended to relieve the expected SAA pressure on Turkish Foederati such as HTS. --Charles Wood (talk) 13:32, 1 February 2018 (UTC)

Blogs, etc

 * Курдам никто ничего не обещал ("Nobody promised Kurds anything", = Donbass -themed sarcasm critical of Russia)- karaul.net, 22 January, 2018
 * Cassad re-posted MoA ('a pro -Russki  piece of our American partners ' ? ) ;a user comment to that: "Ставка на американский империализм не помогла иракским курдам. Не поможет и сирийским." тут как бы продолжение отсутствует: "Ставка на российский олигархат не помогла Ассаду, раздербанят его страну турки, США и рос.олигархи " (The bet on US imperialism did not help the Iraqi Kurds. Nor will it help the Syrian ones"  -- There is no continuation here: " The bet on the Russian oligarchy did not help Assad, his country will be razderbaned (torn to pieces for on own interests) by the Turks, the US and the Russian oligarchs)
 * --Resup (talk) 10:20, 22 January 2018 (UTC)


 * Ehsani2 has a thread on (failed) negotiations between the Kurds and the Syrian Government prior to the invasion. --Charles Wood (talk) 00:43, 23 January 2018 (UTC)

Manbij?

 * "Turkish warplanes bomb western Manbij" - Hawar News, 24 January, 2018
 * СРОЧНО: Турция бомбит Манбидж, где размещён спецназ США (URGENT: Turkey bombs Manbij, where US special forces are stationed) -Rusvesna, 24 January, 2018
 * @Ozkok_(Ali Özkök), 24 January, 2018
 * Olive branch. Day five --Cassad, 25 January, 2018

US advisers?

 * Facebook post aleging that 2 US advisers were killed in Afrin was made by "Syria above all" in Arabic on 22 January, 2018. It is not confirmed and may be fake. However various versions of that, with locations in Afrin or Manbij, were posted on social media, including mentioning in Cassad's "Day Five" update. (On the issue of faking in wartime as such, see Sun Tzu's Art of war, 5 century BCE).


 * --Resup (talk) 03:53, 25 January 2018 (UTC)

OIR Spokesman, 26 Jan. 2018. ''Reports of two US-Coalition members killed in Afrin are FALSE. Completely UNTRUE. ''--Resup (talk) 12:07, 26 January 2018 (UTC)

Formal

 * Resolution on the Peaceful Settlement of Disputes and Differences between Members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO, 11 Dec. 1956 - 14 Dec. 1956, Last updated 3 Nov. 2008 (Turkey is a member since 1952).


 * --Resup (talk) 22:42, 22 January 2018 (UTC)

Assad drives to Ghouta
Cassad on Assad:
 * Assad goes to Ghouta (videos): drives a 'Honda', meets soldiers, March 19, 2018
 * Assad on the frontline, March 19, 2018

Having very mixed feelings, propaganda in its pure form, yet interesting photo-visuals and character evidence, or appearance, despite being a very different character geopolitically. Right here, if he is such a nice dude as it looks, why is that they can't all just get along (but obviously they can't). --Resup (talk) 22:44, 18 March 2018 (UTC)

I like playing 'spot the bodyguard' - the obvious ones and the not so obvious ones. He had one obvious close-in one with tan uniform, backpack and gun. And there were a couple of armed perimeter defence ones in green uniform. But the usual grumpy looking guys paying no attention at all to Bashar seemed (mostly?) absent. Typically I count at least 5 on these occasions. --Charles Wood (talk) 23:06, 18 March 2018 (UTC)
 * Cassad readers decided to play the same game too...I saw the obvious one, the tan hat mustaches; there is at least one and likely two similar-looking heavy-set guys both in blue shirts and a wire on the right year; and towards the end of the last video, a black shirt with a gun, stressed a bit and guarding, like, the unattended chairs --Resup (talk) 00:19, 19 March 2018 (UTC)

This is what bodyguards look like. :) -- Petri Krohn (talk) 01:02, 19 March 2018 (UTC)

Deir ez-Zor, again
'US and the remnants of IS prepare an attack in the Syrian Deir ez-Zor -Rusvesna, March 26, 2018 (demand for the SAA to leave east bank was made by rebel commanders) --Resup (talk) 13:14, 26 March 2018 (UTC)

UN vote, April 2018

 * Reaction

WW2-themed user comment on UN vote youtube video: fatabazuka​1941: the Soviet Union was not attacked by the Germans alone ! All Europe was there!!! Have you already forgotten ??? Total population of Germany will not be enough even for 26% of the front line (meaning WW2) (НА СОВЕТСКИЙ СОЮЗ НАПАЛИ НЕ ОДНИ НЕМЦЫ! ТЕМ ВСЯ ЕВРОПА БЫЛА!!! ИЛИ УЖЕ ЗАБЫЛИ??? ВСЕГО﻿ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ ГЕРМАНИИ НЕ ХВАТИЛО БЫ ДАЖЕ НА 26% ЛИНИИ ФРОНТА.)

Earlier, Vladislav Surkov wrote an op-ed piece, talking about 100's of future years of Russia going ahead alone; his fierce 'patriotic opposition' critics kept criticizing him for such a result but with some sense of inevitability, and not giving up (despite the economic hardship and military threat), more like moving to the front line and doing a better job at it than Surkov; but that would be even more opposing the West and Soviet-like, not more pro-Western. --Resup (talk) 09:17, 11 April 2018 (UTC)
 * The Loneliness of a Half-Blood, Vladislav Surkov, globalaffairs.ru, (RBC summary), 9 Apr. 2018
 * From the (20)14th year onward, an indefinitely long new era, the 14+ era, in which we will have a hundred (two hundred? Three hundred?) years of geopolitical loneliness...

Twitter
OK, my snarky entry plan failed. --I guess it is somewhat similar to twittering seen at the height of North Korea tensions. --Nothing non-obvious for me to say, at this point. --Resup (talk) 13:18, 11 April 2018 (UTC)

Empire to Empire: Op-eds

 * World Cup can’t hide Syrian plight - Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, The Times, June 15, 2018 (mostly paywalled, a free version in Russ. here).
 * Comment: quoting Brodsky, Если выпало в Империи родиться, лучше жить в глухой провинции у моря. --Resup (talk) 04:35, 18 June 2018 (UTC)

Erdoğan
“If they have their dollars, we have our people, our Allah” (as reported, 10 Aug. 2018) --Resup (talk) 05:35, 11 August 2018 (UTC)

Bees and Bugs
Evo bio MSc news item, 24 Aug. 2018. Another writing sample has something I wanted to look into myself, collective insects behavior models & humans comparison. But apart from blabbing something about it, what I see is the dramatic failure to apply this sort of method to himself. He did not consider the arguments and bothered with substance refutations, or even with what the claims are, and by whom, before adding ACLOS to his FUKUSian list. On what grounds, apart from those shared with social insects he is quite aware of ? --Resup (talk) 12:43, 26 August 2018 (UTC)

Nebenzya re-stating Russian claim on planned Idlib provocation
...(Beginning of the main claim follows MoD briefing on 28 Aug., 2018) ''Two large-tonnage trucks arrived to Saraqib from Afs, accompanied by 8 White Helmets. There they were met by 2 high ranking commanders of Ahrar al-Sham. White Helmets delivered large quantities of poisonous substances to storage of weapons and fuel in Saraquib. Later part of those chemicals in plastic barrels without marking was loaded into small cars and delivered to another rebel base, in the south of Idlib. (The rest is similar to TASS): Eight containers with chlorine were delivered to the town of Jisr ash-Shugur in the Idlib province. After their transfer to militants of the Hizb al-Turkistani al-Islami grouping have been delivered to the village of Halluz. A specially trained group, which has to imitate a rescue operation saving chemical attack victims, arrived to Halluz. Syrian side informed the Security Council and the 1540 committee about it. The group received training in handling of poisonous substances by specialists of the UK private military company Olive. Provocation with an active participation of Western services is aimed to justify missile and air strikes by the Western trio on Syrian civilian and military infrastructure, as has occurred in the past  already.'' (Here, starting from quoting the opponent at around 9:33) --Resup (talk) 20:34, 28 August 2018 (UTC)

Allegation: 'Idleb children kidnapped' (?)
Rusvesna (Rus.) posted a translation to Rus. of this article: Idleb Terrorists Kidnap More Than 40 Children to Perform “Chemical Theater”, posted in English by 'The Syrian Observer', and which in turn is a translation from Al-Watan (a Syrian pro-government newspaper). I have no idea is it true or is it propaganda. I do not know anything about English or Arabic source. However it seems that the fact of appearance of such article at the height of military tensions is worth mentioning. Similar claim was also made by the Russian representative Nebenzya at the UNSC (his claim may originate with Syrian government sources, he mentioned that UNSC was briefed by the Syrian government). I feel that it is noteworthy (but may be not true as presented; I really have no idea at all; as a disclosure, I am not a fan or supporter of the whole thing, and this thing is getting really difficult)--Resup (talk) 10:34, 30 August 2018 (UTC)


 * Ja'afari mentioned it as well at the UNSC meeting. I'm also a bit confused about all of that, but it seems they are throwing everything out there, maybe not only for the international audience but first to show the "rebels" how closely they are observed. The intelligence must be excellent after all the waves of freaks from the whole country sent to Idlib, who nobody there knew. Perfect infiltration conditions (and also for assassination ops of which there are countless by now). Well, let's hope it helps. --CE (talk) 12:15, 30 August 2018 (UTC)


 * The claim is now backed by the Syrian FM chief Walid Muallem ...(RT (rus.)). Also some detailed claim, from somewhere, '"White Helmets" kidnapped dozens of children for a chemical attack in Idlib, - Walid Muallem ' -robo-translation of Rusvesna, 30 August, 2018 --Resup (talk) 18:03, 30 August 2018 (UTC)

'Short-circuit' explosions?
In Ukrainian conflict, there is pretty established lore to describe undercover warfare like shelling or reconnaissance & sabotage group strikes as their domestic versions, exploding electrical equipment or careless handling of open fire, etc. Once that happens too often, this is clearly that sort of use; with one-offs, not so clear. What's in the news (photos) looks like single large explosion, not clear what it is exactly; with large ammunition storages, they seem to (often) go off for longer, like one/few shells at a time. Unsure what's seen here; storage of explosives? (As best bet, with other options not impossible) --Resup (talk) 19:35, 2 September 2018 (UTC)

Idlib
Trump twits on preventing humanitarian catastrophe in Idlib; a user responds with lots of graphics which (short of backing it up) is somewhat illustrating some of the problems (I am not following twitter, if this is a bad troll, nothing to do with me, just a random observation, of lots of graphics, kind of obvious but with that obvious rarely said in MSM) --Resup (talk) 07:40, 4 September 2018 (UTC)

Humanitarian catastrophe, may be, but not only here and now, and what's the solution? Selective truth is a form of untruth. --Resup (talk) 07:46, 4 September 2018 (UTC)

Idlib, Rukban, al-Tanf. Foreign presence, + seeking provocations opportunities may continue. Now with Turkey enabled to enter a major ground force, and US, not exhibiting a single line and consistent pattern. But both having unfulfilled interests, and military force - potentially overwhelming in non-nuclear setting. Therefore, diplomacy, + maybe some propaganda, with all that to go on for a while. (Noted, Strelkov and guests, -not agreeing with their every word, but broadly what they say has similarities to this entry)  --Resup (talk) 01:27, 22 September 2018 (UTC)

Back to the 'Wild Mideast'?
(Outline)

In the 1960/70, Middle Eastern wars were fueled (if not caused) by the ideological stand-off between the West and the USSR. That saw direct shoot-to-kill combats of Soviet and Israeli pilots. Some dramatic episodes of that are well-known.

In the 2000's, the specter is roaming back, with ideology replaced by a mix of smaller league character differences + , mostly, money.

There are two versions of IL-20 shoot-out timing. The Russian version, Israeli pilots 'hid behind' slow and big IL-20. In (un-spelled) Israeli version, their planes left after the bombing. There is no really solid basis to choose one version over another, however logic (nothing for Israeli pilots to patrol at 9 kn height, except trouble for their asses), and leaks (Venediktov) supports Israeli version. Multi-media presentation is just that, a presentation, not a big deal at all with contemporary computer technologies.

Russian mass media observers point out that financial benefits of delivering S-300 were mentions--and that may well be a strong contributing or main reason.

Likewise, F-35 is a big industry feeding lots of people, with huge amounts most likely not directly contributing to weapons as such and going to management, office work, facilities, and other things of such sort. Basically, a flow of money, feeding people not particularly bloodthirsty as such. But the flow needs to be regularly justified, which creates pressure (or horror!) to actually deploy it in battles. IDF in all this, to a large degree, may a medium of that progress.

No, in the ME it is not just money. Religious feelings are strong too and may push into irrational and non-economic pathways. But without money, there is a chance. Arabs and Jews, even very religious, can live side by side in the West without much actual or even suppressed fighting. In the ME, and with major backers pushing in opposite directions, --not the case.

In the end of days, it may all end badly. --Resup (talk) 15:49, 4 October 2018 (UTC)

+ sources

 * 'We will illuminate, Syrians will shoot down-experts describe what will await US F-22's in Syria-RIAFAN, October 4, 2018
 * ... ''According to the military analyst, the statement of the American side about the resumption of F-22 flights in the airspace of the SAR is an expression of support for Tel Aviv and a simultaneous attempt to force the Israelis to complete the deal to deliver the F-35 fighter jets...
 * Нетаньяху заявил, что договорился о встрече с Путиным в ближайшее время - Netanyahu says will hold meeting with Putin soon -TASS, 7 October, 2018
 * ''According to the Israeli Prime Minister, the goal of the meeting will be “to continue the important coordination between the armies” of the two countries.
 * Last updated --Resup (talk) 12:54, 7 October 2018 (UTC)

Russian contractors killed in US-led coalition strike

 * ''Moved to Talk:US airstrike on ISIS Hunters, February 7, 2018

Media Troopers?
'A convoy of Russian special forces arrived in the western countryside of Palmyra on Saturday evening after traveling from the coastal city of Jableh, ...etc....--a military source in east Homs told Al-Masdar News' These soldiers from the Russian special forces will be tasked with advising the newly formed 5th Legion of the Syrian Arab Army...
 * Weird. Too much info? A media attack? --Resup (talk) 03:00, 13 February 2017 (UTC)

'Farewell speech'?

 * ISIS leader 'admits..., Daily Mail, 1 March 2017
 * Reasons Why Daesh Chief Al-Baghdadi's 'Farewell' Looks Totally Fake, Sputnik News, March 2, 2017
 * --Resup (talk) 15:21, 2 March 2017 (UTC)

More provocations planned?
This article quotes a Syrian mukhabarat  source, to tell that they intercepted communications about further near future provocation plans, attacking UN humanitarian convoys, and using prepared artillery or shell fragments to blame Syrian goverment side, and to draw USA into the conflict. (How much is this for real, hard to say; advance warnings of such sort posted on Russian sources are not particularly unusual; warnings of course are given to prevent it from happening, not as a prophecy ) --Resup (talk) 08:36, 11 April 2017 (UTC)

Alleged false-flag event filmed by Aljazeera: -- Petri Krohn (talk) 04:37, 5 May 2017 (UTC)
 * Al-Jazeera Films False Flag Fake Chemical Attack Against Civilians in Syria - 'Sputnik'', May 4, 2017


 * I'm generally skeptical of these stories, but in this case they are unusually specific, that's why I put them on the news. European country, to be released before Sunday? C'est la France, n'est-ce pas? --CE (talk) 09:30, 5 May 2017 (UTC)


 * This report in the Guardian indicates that a "Whitehall source" expects "Assad" to launch another chemical attack after the UK general election on 8 June, when it is expected that an increased Conservative majority will ensure that a vote for war with Syria will pass the House of Commons.

Ambassador Yakovlenko understands the situation perfectly:- It has to be borne in mind that the British Foreign Secretary recently hypothesized on joining another US action in Syria in response to another chemical incident, which means that an order for it has already been placed. Pmr9 (talk) 11:26, 5 May 2017 (UTC)
 * Tony Blair: I'll be back. --Resup (talk) 11:42, 5 May 2017 (UTC)

Another/renewed warning, real CW kept in a building in Arih, Idlib, "Assad" threatened to attack on May 1, "Putin", right behind, "specialists consider 12 May most likely day for provocation" (top of the section comment applies as usual, -no prophecies in here pls; this all is getting too often, crying wolf sort, as if it is not insane out there already) --Resup (talk) 19:16, 11 May 2017 (UTC)

Western

 * 'Syria government 'producing chemical weapons at research facilities'- BBC, May 4, 2017.
 * Syria's government is continuing to make chemical weapons in violation of a 2013 deal to eliminate them, a Western intelligence agency has told the BBC. A document says chemical and biological munitions are produced at three main sites near Damascus and Hama. It alleges that both Iran and Russia, the government's allies, are aware.

Videos
Channel 4 Aleppo, Up Close with the Rebels, Oct 9, 2016
 * Vanessa Beeley: Channel 4 removed this video after complaints regarding their terrorism apologism and promotion of Nour Al Din Zinki, terrorists responsible for the beheading of 12 year old Palestinian child, Abdullah Issa.

'Fierce fights in historic Aleppo', report and video, 1 Oct. 2016, Kurdistan-Insider.com and ANNA news.

City fighting near ancient Citadel video, [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=729VrCANQ3o 'Old Aleppo. Fight in Azazi'], ANNA news, 29 Sept. 2016; (English captions).

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZT22pAyBz4Y Хандарат. Нелегкий путь домой / Handarat. The hard way home], ANNA news, 24 Sept. 2016

Блокада боевиков в Алеппо восстановлена /The blockade of terrorists in Aleppo restored, ANNA news, 4 Sept. 2016

Подвиг героев Аль Кинди / Heroes of Al Kindi Hospital, Anna News, 11 Oct. 2016

Бои на юге Сирии: Провальное наступление проамериканских боевиков (Fighting in the south of Syria: The disastrous attack of the pro-American militants) -Rusvesna, 27 Jun. 2017. Starts with osoud al sharqiya logo, Lions of the East Army, FSA-affiliated.

6 August A user calling himself Russian Punisher‏ @GentleWarior reposts Amaq News Agency video, 18+ Air strikes of the #US Coalition: dead and wounded children in Raqqa . This video is also used (rightly or wrongly) in media to illustrate white phosphorous use by the coalition in Raqqa. --Resup (talk) 19:41, 6 August 2017 (UTC)

Photos

 * Russian sappers demining in Aleppo, Cassad part 1, part 2, Dec. 30 2016 and Jan. 2, 2017
 * Work of the "Syrian Express". The second half of December 2016 - the beginning of 2017. The ports of the Black Sea - Tartous. Roundtrips. Cassad, Jan. 3, 2017.
 * --Resup (talk) 05:46, 4 January 2017 (UTC)

Losses
Strelkov contact is with a Russian private military company (PMC) in Syria (Wagner is one such company, sufficiently publicized). Contact tells about their (and Hezbollah) significant role in fighting and significant casualties, in  wounded and killed. Numbers not provided. Talks about deteriorating supplies and recruitment standards. Post was intended to discourage opolchenie from joining Syrian PMC. The contact is returning to Syria after being wounded, regardless. --Resup (talk) 17:13, 24 May 2017 (UTC)

People

 * 'Did not see so much poverty even in Syria' -Lenta.ru, October 27, 2018
 * A Syrian woman Georigna Deiratani, MD, from a well-off Syrian family (father Russian-educated MD, mother from Russia) describes her experiences while volunteering for people's kitchen in Moscow. Says that problems are worse than in Syria where there are poor but stronger social net. (She lives in Russia for a while, perhaps 2004+; it is not clear whether she compares with the current or pre-war Syria. She is thinking about opening a charitable foundation in Syria, where 'there has been a war, and help is needed'). --Resup(talk) 20:29, 31 October 2018 (UTC)