Attack on Red Crescent convoy in Urm al-Kubra/An answer to Bellingcat by PavewayIV

This is my critique of the evidence, analysis and conclusions drawn by the Bellingcat article Analysis of Syrian Red Crescent Aid Convoy Attack authored by Nick Waters and Hady Al-Khatib and published on the Bellingcat site Sep. 21, 2016.

= Bellingcat analysis: Introduction =

The opening paragraphs provide the tone of the rest of the article: Some known details, a true but pointless emotive remark about the attack being a war crime followed by a mis-attributed but supposedly incriminating set of remarks by the Russian MoD addressing their role and social media imagery appearing the following day. This leads to the thesis of the article, offered as such:


 * This investigation will use open source techniques to demonstrate that the Russian MoD and Syrian Government knew the location of the convoy. It will also show that it was not a fire that destroyed the convoy, but a sustained attack by air assets.

Assertion: Knowledge of location means guilt and Russia knew!
The first point about the Russian MoD and Syrian Government knowing the location of the convoy is hardly incriminating. I agree they both knew all along and well before the convoy was even underway - despite any subsequent drone surveillance confirming that. The Syrians, Russians and rebels knew because the Syrian Arab Red Cross (SARC) and the United Nations relief people TOLD them all exactly where the convoy was headed beforehand and got the required approval from all parties for the route/destination. It was traveling to a specific existing SARC aid distribution warehouse and health clinic in the outskirts of Urum al-Kubra, not some secretive location that could only have been discovered by surveillance drones and spy satellites.


 * The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs released this statement by Stephen O'Brien right after the attack, part of which clearly states: "...Notification of the convoy – which planned to reach some 78,000 people - had been provided to all parties to the conflict and the convoy was clearly marked as humanitarian..."


 * And this from the Amnesty International site: "The UN aid chief, Stephen O’Brien, earlier said that the convoy was travelling with all the necessary permits, and that all parties in the conflict had been notified of its route."


 * The Guardian reported "...After it entered opposition territory, it was monitored by Russian drones, a fact acknowledged by the Russian defence ministry, which had also been provided with precise GPS coordinates of the route to be taken and the destination, as per agreement with Syrian officials..."

There is no doubt Russia knew where the convoy was. Bellingcat seems to dwell on the availability of secretive drone-derived locations as some kind of proof of guilt when the route and destination where well-known by everyone beforehand, yet they curiously avoid mentioning this fact.

Suggestion that Russian statements regarding tracking/location were deceptive ignore context
There is also a secondary suggestion that the Russian Defense Ministry spokesman, Igor Konashenkov, was lying about 1) the Russian MoD knowing the convoy's location/destination, and 2) Konashenkov claiming only the rebels could have known where the convoy was. However, the quote is taken out of context without respect to the Russian Center for Reconciliation and their responsibility for monitoring the convoy. From Tass

"The Russian reconciliation center aims to assist armed groups in Syria in concluding ceasefire agreements, maintain the truce regime, control its observance and organize the delivery of humanitarian cargoes to civilians.


 * The center has existed since the beginning of the year and part of its mission is to monitor aid convoys, including this one. This responsibility with regard to the Urum al-Kubra convoy extended into neutral/rebel-controlled territory to a certain point, beyond which the rebel forces assumed responsibility to ensure safe passage of the convoy to the final destination. The Russian MoD was trying to express that they had fulfilled their part of the agreement for monitoring at 1:40 PM local time, and beyond that it was up to the rebel forces to monitor the convoy's further movement and protect it. The convoy (or part of it) was already at the warehouse by then, so it wasn't going anywhere - it was starting to unload.


 * The Russian MoD statement was widely mis-represented in the Western press as some feeble attempt by the Russian MoD to claim ignorance of the convoy's route and destination and additionally claim that only the rebels could have possibly known where the convoy was. Taking these statements completely out of context and failing to mention the Russian Center for Reconciliation and their assigned role, one would think the MoD's statements were indeed disingenuous. The MoD was, in fact, addressing their responsibility to monitor the convoy and the end of that responsibility at 1:40 PM - it was not an attempt to claim ignorance of where they clearly knew the convoy was located: at the warehouse.

Bellingcat is simply using evidence manufactured from poor journalism to suggest deception on Russia's part. This is used to reinforce their previously stated contention that Russia knew where the convoy was, therefore they must have bombed it.

Assertion: Russia lying about attack evidence
The remainder of the article's thesis regarding 'sustained attack by air assets' will be addressed in the sections below as they present their evidence.
 * I'll merely point out here that the Russian MoD had looked at the initial social-media (activist/White Helmet-provided) pictures when they made their comments about the appearance of the convoy. Those initial handful of pictures did appear to show nothing but burnt/damaged trucks and little of the surrounding area. The Russian MoD spokesman was speaking specifically to the accusations that Russian aircraft bombed the trucks. He (rightfully so) said the pictures they had seen at the time looked burnt, not bombed. He would not have made that exact same statement a day or two later when more and better-detailed pictures emerged.

Bellingcat is again presenting the Russian MoD's statements out of context and without regard to what pictures they had actually seen at the time - all this in an attempt to make them sound deceptive or defensive when they were (according to Bellingcat's analysis) already guilty.

= Bellingcat analysis: Context =


 * The information they present here regarding location/time is accurate and reasonable.

= Bellingcat analysis: Who knew about the convoy =

Bellingcat acknowledges that Russia knew where the convoy and warehouse was, then returns to the MoD statement of "...The Russian side did not monitor the convoy after this and its movements were only known by the militants who were in control of the area." Then offers this:
 * "...However, a comparison of pictures from the aftermath of the attack and the drone feed clearly show that the convoy did not move on: it was attacked at the location that the Russian MoD was monitoring..."

While presented as suspicious, the context is once again absent in their analysis:  Bellingcat has somehow interpreted Russia's subsequent monitoring of the warehouse area as suspicious and incriminating, rather than standard military stuff. This is used to bolster their argument that Russia knew = Russia guilty. I'm just completely missing their train of logic here.
 * There were two separate Russian drone 'missions' that day. One was the obligatory convoy monitoring by the Center for Reconciliation until it got to the destination warehouse. The Russian MoD says this occurred at 1:40 PM local. There was another 'mission' (or perhaps a second drone) that did a general reconnaissance of the area until around the local 6:30 PM sunset. While there is video of the warehouse/convoy at times, this (second) drone seems to wander about looking at the surrounding area for long periods of time. In other words, it's not intensely focused on the now-parked convoy and unloading process. It's doing what a recon drone does for any military and had an obviously different task than the dedicated convoy monitoring one. The Russian MoD reluctantly released that in their own defense after accusations that they were responsible for the bombing and the misinterpretation of the Center for Reconciliation statements. This is actually quite extraordinary - you would never see the U.S. military release their drone footage for anything other than self-promotion. Nonetheless, Russia offered it as "See - the aid convoy and warehouse were fine the entire time we were watching (even though we were not obligated to watch it). Whoever attacked it only did so after we stopped monitoring it" Bellingcat misses the entire Russian MoD motivation for even releasing the second set of drone footage and instead sees this as more 'evidence' that Russia did it.
 * Not sure why Bellingcat insists on hammering the MoD for the statement about only rebels knowing where the convoy was after it reached the warehouse. Russia did not expect it to go anywhere. The knew it didn't go anywhere. They were not literally suggesting it did go anywhere else - like to some secret rebel-only-known location. I'm curious if the translation itself was flawed. But even if it was perfect, I see nothing insidious in it given the context. This is far too much attention on a single confusing sentence considered out of context.

= Bellingcat analysis: What happened during the attack? =